Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Johnson, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Queen Mary University of London
Since May 2025, Reform UK has led every poll of general election voting intention. Were an election held today, Reform would be poised to form a government. It would probably be a majority government, too. A party needs 326 seats in the House of Commons to form a majority, and Electoral Calculus currently estimates Reform’s range of seats between 319 and 418 MPs.
This puts Reform in a unique position in British politics. It could potentially form a majority government without ever having been the official opposition. Since 1922, the official opposition has been formed by one of two parties: Labour or the Conservatives. Even during the second world war, Labour remained the official opposition, even though Labour MPs sat in the wartime coalition government.
As part of his bid for government, Nigel Farage has announced what he is calling his “shadow cabinet”. The announcement, however, contained several curiosities.
Only four out of eight Reform MPs were given jobs – far fewer than the number of cabinet posts in government. Farage would be prime minister in a Reform government with Richard Tice as his deputy and head of a new department of business, trade and energy. Robert Jenrick will be Reform’s economic spokesman – and is being called its “shadow chancellor”. Suella Braverman takes the education portfolio.
This is far from the full line up of a cabinet and several key positions are missing – notably foreign secretary. And yet there were no jobs for Reform MPs Lee Anderson, Sarah Pochin, Andrew Rossindell and Danny Kruger.
Meanwhile, Farage has appointed someone to his “shadow” cabinet who does not sit in parliament at all: Zia Yusuf, who takes the home affairs brief. This decision gives a hint that the Reform shadow cabinet is a different beast than the “official” shadow cabinet. It’s a sign that the top team will be focused more on the party’s public presentation than parliamentary scrutiny.
Does this mean anything?
Britain’s parliamentary system assumes a binary structure. Each government minister is shadowed by a member of the official opposition. These “shadow ministers” stand across from the minister at the dispatch box. They are responsible in the chamber for scrutinising and challenging the minister and government legislation. This adversarial pairing is central to the system of political accountability at the heart of the British constitution.
As leader of the opposition, Kemi Badenoch is entitled to ask the prime minister six questions each week at prime minister’s questions (PMQs), the most hotly watched 30 minutes of the weekly parliamentary timetable. This gives Badenoch an opportunity to grab the political limelight in a way that few other opposition politicians can.
Over the years, many Leaders of the opposition have made use of this position to great effect, especially since the introduction of television cameras in parliament in 1989. John Smith, Tony Blair and David Cameron were all particularly good performers at PMQs as opposition leaders.
Reform’s current parliamentary position deprives it of this prominence. At the 2024 general election, it finished third in vote share but only seventh in seats. Through defections and byelections it now has eight MPs, making it the fifth largest party in the House of Commons – one seat behind the SNP.
Reform figures have complained about the disconnect between their polling strength and their parliamentary footprint. Nigel Farage briefly boycotted PMQs after failing to secure a guaranteed seat in the chamber. But Britain is a parliamentary democracy, not a polling democracy. In the Commons, what counts is seats won, not votes projected.
That said, if Reform sustains its polling lead as the next election approaches, voters will expect clarity about what a Reform government would look like. In Britain, unlike in the US, Cabinets are largely visible before an election. We generally know who will occupy the great offices of state should a party win. There can be post-election adjustments – Labour’s Emily Thornberry was cruelly removed from the frontbench immediately after the 2024 election – but the broad outline is usually established in advance.
It is not unheard of for smaller parties in parliament to announce something they call a shadow cabinet. The Liberal Democrats have pulled this stunt from time to time. In 2008, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg announced his shadow cabinet, many of whom ended up in government after 2010 when the Lib Dems joined a coalition government with the Conservatives.
Practically speaking, a “shadow cabinet” from a third party confers no additional standing in parliament. The party may wish to encourage the “shadow” to attend debates relevant to their brief and to make interventions. But they do not speak from the dispatch box or enjoy the same parliamentary time and prominence as the official opposition.
Power sharing to win power
Nonetheless, this is a test of Nigel Farage’s leadership approach. It has been reported that “he has struggled to share power with others”. Farage’s re-entry to British electoral politics in June 2024 was predicated on him taking the reigns of Reform from Tice. He did not want to share the top job.
Farage has been ruthless in expelling Reform MPs whom he regards as a liability to the party and a threat to his leadership. He has also limited internal party democracy in the form of either candidate selections or policy formulation.
This has been both a strength and a weakness for Reform. Farage is undoubtedly Reform’s most recognisable figure and is one of the most charismatic people in British politics. His ruthless grip over the party has sometimes been merited in keeping Reform’s distance from more ethno-nationalist elements of the British right.
At the same time, it is impossible for a prime minister to have full control over every element of his party and government. To lead is to delegate. Farage’s announcement of his shadow cabinet was the first demonstration of that imperative, but in the months ahead there will be much more to do.
If Farage is serious about doing the unthinkable and leapfrogging from a minor parliamentary party to majority government in one election, then he is going to need to learn to share power. Power-sharing requires trust, and trust is not easily cultivated in a party composed largely of political defectors. Leading such a party requires not only discipline from the top, but confidence that those who have already turned their backs on one political team will remain loyal to another.
Richard Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
– ref. Nigel Farage unveils ‘shadow cabinet’ team – but why did only three of his MPs get jobs? – https://theconversation.com/nigel-farage-unveils-shadow-cabinet-team-but-why-did-only-three-of-his-mps-get-jobs-276106