Cuba’s speedboat shootout recalls long history of exile groups engaged in covert ops aimed at regime change

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By William M. LeoGrande, Professor of Government, American University School of Public Affairs

Cuban coast guard ships docked at the port of Havana on Feb. 25, 2026. Adalberto Roque/ AFP via Getty Images

A boat carrying 10 heavily armed men entered Cuban territorial waters on Feb. 25, 2026, intent, according to officials in Havana, on infiltrating the island nation and undermining the communist government through acts of sabotage and terrorism. When the men opened fire on an approaching Cuban Border Guard patrol boat, the border guards returned fire, killing four and wounding the other six. Another Cuban American who had allegedly flown to Cuba from the United States to meet the infiltration team on the beach was later arrested.

While details about the incident continue to come out, the gun battle comes at a time of heightened tensions between Cuba and the United States, which for weeks has been pursuing a de facto total oil blockade of the island. The latest episode is also reminiscent of the early 1960s, when Cuban exiles, trained and armed by the CIA, tried to infiltrate Cuba to conduct acts of sabotage and assassinate the leaders of the Cuban Revolution.

As a longtime expert on U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America and co-author of a history of the bilateral diplomacy between the United States and Cuba, I know that Cuba’s exile community has long contained paramilitary elements. Encouraged by Washington’s intensified sanctions and heated rhetoric, and a weakened government in Havana, these elements seem to sense an opportunity now.

Cuba’s exiled paramilitaries

Following the triumph of the Cuban Revolution and Fidel Castro’s rise to power in 1959, U.S. policy toward the new government was antagonistic almost from the start.

In 1961, the CIA under President John F. Kennedy organized the Bay of Pigs invasion – a military operation by exiled Cubans aimed at overthrowing the young Castro government.

A group of men with guns stand by a boat with a skull and crossbones motif.
Pro-Castro soldiers pose at Playa de Giron, Cuba, after thwarting the ill-fated ‘Bay of Pigs’ invasion.
Graf/Getty Images

The attempted invasion was a “perfect failure,” in the words of author Theodore Draper, after which the agency recruited a number of the invaders to continue to wage irregular war against Cuba. They were part of Operation Mongoose, the Kennedy administration’s multifaceted program of diplomatic, economic, political and paramilitary pressure aimed at overthrowing the Cuban government.

The CIA’s financial support for exile paramilitary groups continued into the late 1960s, until it was phased out because of their ineffectiveness. Although the CIA gave up on overthrowing Castro by force of arms, the paramilitary exile groups did not.

Two of the most prominent groups – Alpha 66 and Omega 7 – continued their war against the Cuban government for years with tacit U.S. support. “We should not inhibit Cuban exile activity against their homeland,” President Richard Nixon wrote in 1971 in response to Coast Guard efforts to arrest members of Alpha 66. Five years later, two of the most prominent paramilitary leaders, Orlando Bosch and Luis Posada Carriles, orchestrated the bombing of a civilian airliner, Cubana Flight 455, killing all 73 people on board.

A change in attitudes

Frustrated by their inability to depose the Cuban government, the paramilitary groups turned their attention inward. In the late 1970s, these groups launched a campaign of terrorist bombings and assassinations mainly targeting Cuban Americans who dared speak out in favor of rapprochement with their homeland. In 1979, two members of the Committee of 75, Cuban Americans who traveled to Cuba to meet with Castro to secure the release of political prisoners, were assassinated by Omega 7.

President Ronald Reagan was certainly no friend of Castro’s Cuba, but his Justice Department launched a major crackdown on the U.S.-based paramilitary groups, winning convictions against a number of their members.

The terrorist attacks subsided, but the martial impulse has remained alive among some Cuban American extremists. Small groups have continued to hold weekend military training exercises in the Everglades in Florida, home to the world’s largest Cuban diaspora. Periodically over the years, some of these weekend warriors have tried to infiltrate Cuba. Almost always, they are quickly captured by Cuban police. The most recent firefight seems to be the latest of these incidents, albeit an unusually violent one.

Ratcheting up US hostility to Cuba

The number of these incursions, along with attempts by Cuban Americans to solicit acts of sabotage over social media, have increased in recent years as relations between Cuba and the U.S. have deteriorated, now at their lowest point in decades.

In his first administration, President Donald Trump reversed President Barack Obama’s 2014 Cuban thaw by imposing the toughest economic sanctions since the 1960s. President Joe Biden left most of those sanctions in place, even as the Cuban economy suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Now in his second term, Trump has turned the screws even tighter by cutting off Cuba’s oil supply from Venezuela and threatening other countries if they send oil to Cuba. The result is a profound, unprecedented economic decline on the island that threatens to precipitate a humanitarian crisis.

Both Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who built his political career by being the most vocal anti-Cuban government member of Congress, have declared Cuba a failed state and predict its imminent collapse almost daily.

These predictions from the White House, along with the seemingly unsustainable economic crisis on the island, have created an expectation that the Cuban government cannot survive. In this atmosphere, Cuban American militants might well conclude that the long-awaited moment has arrived, and those who fancy themselves soldiers might well decide to take up arms and head south to witness, participate in or even catalyze the demise of the government they have hated so much and for so long.

But Cuba is not a failed state, claims from the White House notwithstanding. The Cuban government is still fully capable of maintaining public order and defending its coastline, as the 10 people that allegedly tried to infiltrate the island found out.

Trump and his hawkish advisers, including Rubio, appear to want to force Cuba into submission, much as they have tried to do in Venezuela.

But there are no visible signs of cracks in the regime and no organized opposition to it. Many Cubans remain fiercely nationalistic and are not likely to accept any deal that requires them to surrender their national sovereignty by remaking their political or economic system to please the United States.

Absent some kind of diplomatic agreement between Washington and Havana, the Cuban economy will continue to deteriorate under the weight of the ongoing oil blockade and all the other elements of the U.S. economic embargo. This will deepen the misery of people living in Cuba and risks prompting other exiles into launching paramilitary adventures in hopes of exploiting Havana’s weakness.

The Conversation

William M. LeoGrande is affiliated with The Quincy Institute as a Non-resident Fellow

ref. Cuba’s speedboat shootout recalls long history of exile groups engaged in covert ops aimed at regime change – https://theconversation.com/cubas-speedboat-shootout-recalls-long-history-of-exile-groups-engaged-in-covert-ops-aimed-at-regime-change-277049

Why isn’t the Greens’ growing success reflected in media coverage?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maxwell Modell, Research associate, Cardiff University

wellphoto/Shutterstock

The victory of the Greens in the Gorton and Denton parliamentary byelection is a landmark for the party. But our new research reveals the Greens have received limited airtime over the last year despite almost doubling their support in the polls and in party membership.

While Reform UK has seen a spike in media coverage since it took a commanding lead in the polls, our research shows the Greens have not received more airtime in recognition of their growing popularity.

Broadcasters have to abide by due impartiality rules, but they have the editorial freedom to balance the airtime of political parties. They consider factors such as a party’s vote share at the last UK general election or a party’s electoral performance at the most recent devolved, regional and local election. Other factors to consider include the latest trends in opinion polls tracking voting intention, and whether what a party is saying the news organisation considers significant or, as the BBC says, whether they are “making the political weather” by setting the agenda.

After winning the byelection, this raises the question: should the Greens now be given more airtime?

Limited coverage of Greens

Our Impartiality project team has been tracking coverage of UK opposition parties on BBC News at Ten and ITV News at Ten, the UK’s most-watched nightly TV news bulletins.

In 2025, we found the Greens were the sixth most covered opposition party, being referenced in just 32 items, behind the Conservatives (375), Reform UK (213), the Liberal Democrats (116), the Scottish National Party or SNP (46) and ahead of Plaid Cymru (10).

Number of items led by an opposition party on BBC News at Ten and ITV News at Ten.
Cardiff University, CC BY-NC-ND

We also tracked how often a party was the leading focus of a broadcaster’s report. The Greens led four items – three on BBC and one on ITV. These stories related to the Greens’ May local election campaign, Zack Polanski winning the party leadership in September and the party conference in October. But neither BBC News at Ten and ITV News at Ten covered the announcement or build-up to the leadership contest.

In contrast, Reform UK led 69 items, Conservatives led 45 items, the Liberal Democrats led 14 items and the SNP led 13 items.

vote green sign, outside blue sky
Growing success of the Green party doesn’t mean more press appearances.
Peter_Fleming

The Greens also appeared on only four episodes of BBC Question Time during 2025. That was about a third as often as the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK.
Despite the leadership change, the subsequent surge in membership and the sustained rise in poll ratings (from 11% in August 2025 to 17% in December 2025), broadcast coverage of Greens did not increase at the end of 2025.

This shows a potential inequality in the treatment of the rising left and right parties. The BBC cited improvements in opinion polling as one of the factors behind the increased coverage of Reform UK, but the Green party’s popularity has not received anywhere near the same recognition.




Read more:
What Hannah Spencer’s historic win means for the Green party’s future


In May 2025, news coverage of Reform UK increased substantially following its victories in local and mayoral elections, which broadcasters considered a sign that the party was now a major player in UK electoral politics. Our research even showed in September 2025 Reform UK was referenced on TV news more than the Conservatives, the party that is supposed to be the UK’s parliamentary official opposition.

The question now is whether broadcasters will take the Green party’s victory in Gorton and Denton as a similar sign of its electoral significance and increase media coverage of the party.

While broadcasters have not broken any of the UK’s rules on due impartiality, our new research raises questions about how they have been interpreting impartiality in a new multi-party system.

Traditionally they have relied on allocating airtime according to parties with the largest number of MPs and total vote at the last general election. They have also factored in performances at the latest local, regional or devolved elections. But they now appear to making more subjective judgements about allocating airtime according to the opinion polls or the newsworthiness of parties.

Given the Greens’ growing popularity, their distinctive set of policies, charismatic leader and byelection victory, they might now look set to receive more media attention and scrutiny over the coming months.

The Conversation

Maxwell Modell receives funding from the AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.

Matt Walsh receives funding from the AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.

Stephen Cushion has received funding from the BBC Trust, Ofcom, AHRC, BA and ESRC.

ref. Why isn’t the Greens’ growing success reflected in media coverage? – https://theconversation.com/why-isnt-the-greens-growing-success-reflected-in-media-coverage-277137

Syrie : une nouvelle fois, les Kurdes abandonnés par leurs alliés régionaux et par les Occidentaux

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Pierre Firode, Professeur agrégé de géographie, membre du Laboratoire interdisciplinaire sur les mutations des espaces économiques et politiques Paris-Saclay (LIMEEP-PS) et du laboratoire Médiations (Sorbonne Université), Sorbonne Université

Les forces kurdes ont perdu énormément de terrain face à l’avancée de celles de Damas. Le nouveau régime syrien a su habilement manœuvrer pour mettre fin au projet kurde du Rojava, en passe d’être totalement anéanti à la grande satisfaction de la Turquie. Les Kurdes irakiens et turcs ne se risquent pas à secourir leurs compatriotes de Syrie. Tout cela se passe dans l’indifférence des Occidentaux, qui s’étaient pourtant largement appuyés sur les Kurdes syriens durant la lutte contre Daech…


Considérées depuis leur création en 2015 comme un acteur puissant en Syrie, les milices kurdes des Forces démocratiques syriennes (FDS) ont dernièrement vu leur influence s’étioler. Depuis le début du mois de janvier 2026, leurs positions s’effondrent avec une rapidité qui étonne les observateurs. Après leur avoir repris Alep, la grande ville du nord-ouest du pays, le 11 janvier, les troupes loyalistes syriennes du gouvernement central dirigé par Ahmed al-Charaa ont imposé aux FDS de se retirer de toutes leurs positions situées sur l’Euphrate, le 17 janvier.

Depuis, rien n’arrête la progression des troupes de Damas, qui ont récupéré toute la province de Deir-es-Zor et la majorité de la province d’Hassaké.

Les FDS étaient autrefois maîtresses d’un tiers du territoire syrien, le Rojava, rebaptisé en 2018 Administration autonome du nord-est de la Syrie (AANES), région particulièrement riche en pétrole. Leur emprise a été réduite à peau de chagrin : elles ne contrôlent plus que la poche de Kobané, la ville de Hassaké et leur fief historique dans le nord-est du pays autour de la ville de Qamechli.

En position de force, le président syrien exige par le cessez-le-feu du 20 janvier 2026 l’absorption totale des milices kurdes dans l’armée syrienne ainsi que l’intégration totale de l’AANES dans un État syrien centralisé et autoritaire : on voit donc mal à ce stade ce qui pourrait empêcher la disparition imminente du Rojava. Comment un acteur apparemment aussi influent que les FDS a-t-il pu s’effondrer aussi rapidement ? Et peut-on espérer une issue plus favorable pour le Rojava que la pure et simple absorption par l’État central syrien ?

Un Rojava dépourvu de sanctuaire

Le facteur le plus évident et pourtant le moins mis en valeur par la presse pouvant expliquer l’incapacité des FDS à tenir leur position tient aux spécificités géographiques du nord-est de la Syrie.

L’essentiel du Rojava est traversé par la Jéziré (Jazira en arabe), une vaste plaine ouverte aride sans aucun réel obstacle topographique ou hydrographique le long duquel construire une ligne de défense. La défense du Rojava reposait sur la « coupure humide » de l’Euphrate, dont la largeur et le débit importants rendaient difficile la progression des troupes syriennes. Les positions kurdes le long du fleuve constituaient autant de verrous qui ont sauté depuis l’accord du 20 janvier avec le pouvoir syrien.

Entre l’Euphrate et la rivière Khabour, aucun obstacle ne peut freiner la progression des troupes syriennes. D’autant que la rivière Khabour, à l’image de tout le bassin hydrographique de l’Euphrate, s’écoule du nord au sud dans la région, et ne peut donc ni entraver l’avancée de troupes syriennes remontant la rivière depuis le sud, ni empêcher une éventuelle avancée turque depuis le nord.

Ensuite, contrairement à leurs homologues irakiens, les Kurdes syriens ne peuvent compter sur aucun massif montagneux pouvant leur servir de refuge. Or, on sait à quel point les sanctuaires montagneux ont joué un rôle important dans les insurrections kurdes contre l’État central irakien (la République d’Irak issue du coup d’État d’Abbdel Karim Kassem). L’armée irakienne avait échoué à soumettre les montagnes de Cheekha Dar en 1961 dans le Kurdistan irakien, contribuant ainsi à la constitution d’un sanctuaire de guérilla endémique dans la région d’Erbil. De même, l’insurrection de 1991 contre le régime de Saddam Hussein parvient à soustraire ces régions montagneuses au contrôle de l’État.

Privées de sanctuaires naturels, les milices kurdes syriennes pourraient concentrer leurs défenses autour des centres urbains de Kobané, d’Hassaké et de Qamichli pour repousser les forces syriennes. Cependant, ces villes risquent de se retrouver rapidement assiégées et condamnées à la reddition — et ce, d’autant plus vite qu’elles comportent d’importantes populations arabes qui pourraient se soulever contre les Kurdes. Les territoires du Rojava abritent en effet une forte minorité arabe, dans un contexte régional marqué par le réveil du nationalisme arabe.


Pierre Firode sera l’un des intervenants au webinaire « Face aux bouleversements du monde : quels espoirs pour la paix ? » que nous organiserons le 10 mars prochain à 18h, en coopération avec le Forum mondial Normandie pour la paix, et qui portera aussi bien sur la situation au Proche-Orient que sur la diplomatie par la force de Donald Trump et les mobilisations de la Gen Z de par le monde. Inscription gratuite ici.


La composante arabe des FDS a massivement fait défection depuis mi-janvier, ce qui explique la rapidité de la conquête rapide par l’armée syrienne de la province de Deir-ez-Zor et de toute la vallée de l’Euphrate. En plus du nationalisme arabe parfois nourri par le ressentiment anti-kurde, le régime syrien peut s’appuyer sur le soutien des cheikhs, les chefs de tribu arabes soucieux de réintégrer une Syrie unifiée et arabe.

À cet égard, Al-Charaa se place dans la continuité de sa gestion de la bande d’Idlib de 2017 à 2024 où son groupe, Hayat Tahrir al-Cham, avait pris le soin d’associer les cheikhs à la gouvernance du territoire. Si l’on considère que le Rojava forme une mosaïque où les Arabes et les Kurdes s’entremêlent, on comprend que les Kurdes ne disposent pas de véritables sanctuaires à la différence de l’Irak ce qui rend la défense du Rojava difficile, pour ne pas dire impossible.

Cette défection des tribus arabes a poussé les Kurdes à rechercher un accord avec Damas et aboutit aux accords du 31 janvier par lesquels les forces kurdes abandonnent leur projet d’un Rojava autonome (c’est-à-dire leur contrôle sur l’administration et les ressources des territoires du nord-est du pays) et se voient en échange absorbées par l’armée syrienne.

Un Rojava isolé sur le plan diplomatique

L’autre faiblesse stratégique structurelle du Rojava tient à son isolement diplomatique complet, tant à l’échelle régionale qu’internationale. Les FDS ne peuvent pas s’appuyer sur leurs voisins kurdes irakiens. En effet, le gouvernement régional du Kurdistan irakien autonome (GRK) s’engage depuis les années 2010 dans un processus de rapprochement avec Ankara lui permettant d’exporter son pétrole via la Turquie et de se développer grâce aux investissements turcs tout en disposant d’un allié face à l’État central irakien.

En retour, le GRK se doit de renoncer à l’envoi d’armes et de combattants au PKK en Turquie ainsi qu’aux FDS en Syrie. Le Kurdistan irakien pourrait en effet jouer le rôle de sanctuaire transfrontalier pour les Kurdes de Syrie qui profiteraient alors de l’effet refuge de la frontière irako-syrienne pour échapper aux offensives de Damas. Mais cela suppose un soutien du GRK ; or ce dernier ne prendra certainement pas le risque de franchir les lignes rouges fixées par Ankara et de renoncer aux fruits d’une décennie de rapprochement et de réconciliation avec la Turquie.

L’isolement du Rojava se constate aussi à l’échelle internationale où les soutiens historiques des Kurdes, américains et européens, semblent avoir abandonné leurs anciens alliés dans la lutte contre l’État islamique. À cet égard, on peut souligner les efforts diplomatiques du président syrien pour isoler les Kurdes de leurs alliés occidentaux. En s’impliquant dans la lutte contre l’État islamique aux côtés des Américains, Al-Charaa entend devenir le nouveau partenaire des États-Unis dans la guerre contre le terrorisme dans la région, fonction jusqu’alors dévolue aux Kurdes.

Ce transfert de la lutte contre Daech des Kurdes vers Damas rend le soutien des États-Unis aux Kurdes caduc. Dans cette optique, Al-Charaa essaie d’apparaître comme un partenaire fiable des États-Unis en acceptant le transfert des prisonniers de l’EI vers l’Irak ou en s’impliquant dans la sécurisation des camps abritant les familles d’anciens combattants de l’EI, comme celui d’Al Hol.

Le président syrien est aussi soucieux de ne pas franchir les lignes rouges européennes en matière de droit humanitaire international, comme le montre l’ouverture récente d’un corridor humanitaire pour venir en aide aux civils de Kobané. Al-Charaa connaît la charge symbolique de la ville, qui représente aux yeux des sociétés européennes le combat kurde contre Daech en 2014, et veut éviter la mobilisation médiatique qu’entraînerait un drame humanitaire dans cette ville.

Kurdes abandonnés, Occidentaux discrédités

Ainsi, les caractéristiques géographiques tant physiques qu’humaines expliquent la grande précarité dans laquelle se retrouve actuellement le Rojava. Encerclées, condamnées à protéger un territoire indéfendable, les FDS ne peuvent compter ni sur le soutien de leurs homologues irakiens, ni sur celui des puissances occidentales, qui ont pourtant beaucoup contribué à la construction du Rojava.

Comme en 2019 lors de l’opération turque Source de Paix, le sort des Kurdes de Syrie pourrait être sacrifié sur l’autel de la Realpolitik, qui incite à privilégier l’entente avec les puissances régionales comme la Turquie ou la Syrie au détriment du respect du droit des peuples et du droit humanitaire international.

Cette approche, partagée par la Maison Blanche et en partie par l’Union européenne, saborde pourtant la crédibilité et l’implantation des puissances occidentales au Moyen-Orient qui, en abandonnant leurs alliés historiques comme les Kurdes pour des partenaires de circonstance, contribuent au recul des valeurs démocratiques dans le monde.

The Conversation

Pierre Firode ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Syrie : une nouvelle fois, les Kurdes abandonnés par leurs alliés régionaux et par les Occidentaux – https://theconversation.com/syrie-une-nouvelle-fois-les-kurdes-abandonnes-par-leurs-allies-regionaux-et-par-les-occidentaux-274329

Twenty-year sentence for Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai is a further blow for journalists feeling the heat of Beijing’s crackdown on press freedom

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Yuen Chan, Senior Lecturer, School of Arts and Social Sciences, Department of Journalism, City St George’s, University of London

The sentencing of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison on February 8 on charges of sedition and collusion with foreign forces prompted international outrage.

Lai founded the now shuttered pro-democracy Apple Daily newspaper – and supporters of press freedom around the world pointed to the chilling effect the sentence would have on the media, in a city once vaunted as a beacon for press freedom in Asia.

The reaction was more muted in Hong Kong, where dissent has been stifled since Beijing imposed the draconian National Security Law in 2020, following months of protests in 2019. A local security law enacted in 2024 further expanded the scope of the city’s national security legislation.

Privately, some local journalists say Lai’s conviction will have limited impact on their work. They have already felt heavily constrained by the security laws and what they’re calling the “new normal” – an overarching national security apparatus and culture. Although saddened, they were not altogether surprised at the severity of Lai’s sentence.

One journalist told me they were more shaken by the sentences of up to ten years that were meted out to six senior Apple Daily editors and writers for “just doing their jobs”.

Since the national security law, Hong Kong journalists’ jobs have involved a great deal of dancing around shifting boundaries as to what can and can’t be reported. Inevitably, this has meant exercising greater self-censorship.

In an editorial on the sentencing, the Ming Pao newspaper, which has long positioned itself as a neutral paper of record, suggested the Lai ruling has brought these boundaries into sharper focus, concluding: “Collusion with foreign forces cannot readily be dressed up as journalism.”

The newspaper said that as Hong Kong now operates within the framework of the national security legislation: “The media must operate within this legal framework while continuing to report facts and hold power to account, a balance essential to preserving the city’s pluralism and openness.”

But it hoped “the Lai case will prove a watershed, allowing space for press freedom to widen step by step, so the media can fulfil its responsibilities more effectively”.

However, local journalists I spoke to described this position as naïve and wishful thinking, and said the red lines are no clearer now than before. Selina Cheng, chair of the Hong Kong Journalists Association (HKJA), believes the constraints on free expression in Hong Kong go far beyond a legal framework.

“If we call it a legal framework, it’s giving the system some kind of legitimacy,” Cheng told me. “In reality, the way it operates is there is a lot of destruction of due process, creating an atmosphere of fear and anxiety in those working in industries of expression.”

Apart from being arrested and jailed, Cheng says journalists and their family members have been doxed, with their personal details posted online, and harassed. Both individual journalists and news outlets have been targeted by unusual tax audits.

Tai Po tragedy

Cheng was one of several journalists I spoke to who pointed to the November 2025 fire which killed 168 people in Tai Po’s Wang Fuk Court Estate as a potent symbol of the current state of press freedom and freedom of speech in Hong Kong.

In the immediate aftermath, local and international journalists interviewed victims and reported extensively on suspected corruption and lack of oversight of building works on the site. But residents and other potential interviewees soon became reluctant to speak to reporters following the arrests of people who had posted comments online.

A student who started a petition for an independent inquiry was arrested – and then recently expelled from his university just weeks from graduation, even though he hasn’t been charged.

For one veteran journalist, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of bringing trouble to their organisation, what led to the Tai Po tragedy highlights a “media failure”. The news outlets which had most doggedly pursued stories about building maintenance, bid-rigging and corruption were the investigative site Factwire and Apple Daily, so “when these outlets disappeared, a lot of the reports also petered out”.

“In the past, you’d have lots of commentary in the media after an incident like this,” they explained. “There’d be legal scholars, experts, people from all different sectors. But now, the universities don’t allow people to comment and articles are spiked or censored, so it’s hard to raise and maintain public concern.”

Snitch culture

The journalist spoke of a system that extends beyond the legal framework of the national security law that restricts speech, through the control of public opinion and a “snitch culture” that weaponises complaints.

A Hong Kong police national security hotline was launched in November 2020; by June 2025, the city’s security chief said it had received more than 920,000 reports. Public bodies and funding organisations also regularly receive complaints about platforming of funding groups or individuals perceived to be pro-democracy or supportive of the 2019 protests.

Last October, a public venue cancelled a play written by Candace Chong, a leading playwright who was been vocal about censorship. The body that manages the Xiqu Centre, part of the West Kowloon Cultural District, said it had received complaints that the show – which depicts a love triangle between three men – defamed Hong Kong.

There are signs the “media failure” is already affecting governance. In January, the government introduced a controversial seat belt law requiring all bus passengers to buckle up while seated, only to shelve it five days later. The bill had received little scrutiny in Hong Kong’s now opposition-free legislature.

“It’s really unthinkable for a government to push out a bill, get it rubber-stamped by the legislature, and then withdraw it because they suddenly realise people are unhappy or the legislative details haven’t been thought through,” the HKJA’s Cheng told me. “It shows how the government misjudged public sentiment. This can be attributed to how the media isn’t free any more.”

The Conversation

Yuen Chan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Twenty-year sentence for Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai is a further blow for journalists feeling the heat of Beijing’s crackdown on press freedom – https://theconversation.com/twenty-year-sentence-for-hong-kong-media-mogul-jimmy-lai-is-a-further-blow-for-journalists-feeling-the-heat-of-beijings-crackdown-on-press-freedom-276992

‘Working hard used to get you something’: what Hannah Spencer’s speech tells us about her, and the state of British politics

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Prior, Lecturer in Politics with International Relations, London South Bank University

Hannah Spencer’s parliamentary story – as the new Green MP for Gorton and Denton – has just begun.

Nevertheless, the life story that she presented in her victory speech was that of a plumber, not a politician. She identified herself – in present tense – by that trade; she had not grown up wanting to be a politician. She also celebrated qualifying as a plasterer during the “chaos” and “pressure” of the election campaign. She described campaigning jovially as “all this”, as if it were just a challenge in the broader adventure, not the adventure itself.

Despite, or perhaps because of, accusations that the Greens used “sectarian politics” to secure victory, the speech was one of solidarity, of aligning herself with the struggles and achievements of “the community that I am from”. Spencer said that she had lived there in one of the hardest times of her life, and presented the strength of the community “at holding things together” as an inspiration.

She aligned herself and her personal characteristics with those of the constituency, stressing that “I am no different to every single person here in this constituency. I work hard. That is what we do.”

Alongside all the talk of “we”, of common interests and lack of difference, Spencer singled out several audiences for her story. One such audience? Her now-plumberless “customers”, to whom she duly apologised: “I’m sorry, but I think I might have to cancel the work that you had booked in, because I’m heading to parliament”.

Spencer also addressed those who voted for her, and those who didn’t. She spoke of “my Muslim friends and neighbours”, who “are just like me: human”. She discussed the “left-behind” (“I see you, and I will fight for you”), and people doing jobs like hers: “We will finally get a seat at the table”. And she addressed “our white working class communities, the background that I have become so glad to be from”.

A personal and political journey

My research focuses on political narratives and storytelling as a means of communication: the stories that parliaments contain and project, the stories we tell about the places we’re in and the stories that politicians use to communicate themselves to voters. Spencer’s speech is an attempt to portray a compelling story to her new constituency.

She spoke about how moving away from the constituency to nearby Trafford made the qualities of Gorton and Denton’s community “even clearer”. Only realising your love for a place and the people in it when you’ve moved away is a familiar narrative device. As Joni Mitchell once sang, “You don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s gone”.

In Spencer’s speech, this tactic carried a sharper political edge. This is a constituency that people move away from to get the “nice life” that Spencer described: “good schools, a thriving high street and clean air”.

This part of the story carried a rebuke to an audience that Spencer was addressing, but not by name: the Labour Party, for whom this was a traditionally safe seat. Spencer observed that “working hard used to get you something”.

I would argue that “you”, in this context, is a reference to traditional Labour voters. The implication here is that it is voting Labour that “used to get you something”.

Being a politician now isn’t an aspect of Spencer’s story that she’s keen to claim. She may now sit at Westminster, but she appears to frame this as an extension of who she already is — a worker, a neighbour, a constituent — in a new arena.

In doing so, she attempts to recast political representation itself as continuity of identity. The challenge, of course, will be whether she can sustain that claim. It is easier to say “I am no different” on a victory stage following a byelection win than from the House of Commons. The durability of her narrative – and perhaps her political appeal – will rest on whether she can remain recognisably “from” the constituency while operating within the institution of parliament.

The Conversation

Alex Prior does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘Working hard used to get you something’: what Hannah Spencer’s speech tells us about her, and the state of British politics – https://theconversation.com/working-hard-used-to-get-you-something-what-hannah-spencers-speech-tells-us-about-her-and-the-state-of-british-politics-277121

Le discours sur l’état de l’Union de Trump, ou la perversion des « mythes américains »

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, Spécialiste de la politique américaine, Sciences Po

Le discours sur l’état de l’Union est censé exposer les priorités d’un président devant le Congrès et le pays. En 2026, Donald Trump en a fait tout autre chose : moins une feuille de route qu’un récit de restauration nationale, où se mêlent triomphe personnel, mythologie nationale et mise à l’épreuve publique des loyautés partisanes.


Le discours annuel sur l’état de l’Union est l’un des grands moments institutionnels de la vie politique états-unienne. En principe, le président, devant l’ensemble des membres du Congrès, y expose ses priorités, justifie ses choix, annonce des mesures et tente de convaincre au-delà de son camp. Le 24 février 2026, Donald Trump a bien respecté le décor constitutionnel. Mais il a bien moins présenté un programme ou un agenda législatif que mis en scène un récit de restauration nationale centré sur sa personne. Il s’agit d’ailleurs du discours l’état de l’Union qui contient le moins de propositions programmatiques depuis cinquante ans, selon The Economist.

Dès les premières lignes, le ton est donné : « notre nation est de retour », puis « c’est l’âge d’or de l’Amérique ». Le discours ouvre donc sur l’annonce d’un retour à la grandeur. Trump n’est pas un chef de gouvernement décrivant des lignes politiques, il est le sauveur d’une nation qui était en perdition. Il affirme avoir hérité d’« une nation en crise », affligée par « une économie stagnante », « des frontières grandes ouvertes » et « des guerres et le chaos partout dans le monde ». Un an plus tard, affirme-t-il, tout aurait changé grâce à la « transformation sans précédent » et au « revirement historique » qu’il aurait impulsés. Dans son discours, la politique n’est pas racontée comme gestion, compromis ou promesse, mais comme retournement quasi miraculeux de l’histoire.

Une jérémiade trumpienne

Pour comprendre ce récit, il faut se pencher sur la structure profonde du discours (écrit par ses conseillers Ross Worthington et Vince Haley). Il emploie un schéma ancien de la rhétorique politique états-unienne : celui d’une nation dévoyée, menacée, puis ramenée sur le bon chemin. C’est la structure classique de la jérémiade issue des sermons basés sur la figure biblique de Jérémie, puis reprise par les puritains de Nouvelle-Angleterre : la chute, le redressement, puis la destinée retrouvée.

Le premier temps est celui de la déchéance. Trump ne se contente pas d’évoquer des difficultés : il construit un imaginaire de crise totale. La frontière serait le point de passage d’une « invasion », le crime incontrôlé, l’économie humiliée, le monde livré au chaos. La nation n’aurait pas simplement traversé une période difficile ; elle aurait été, jusqu’à son retour à la Maison Blanche, « à l’agonie ».

Le second temps est celui du sauvetage. « Aujourd’hui, notre frontière est sécurisée », proclame-t-il ; « notre esprit est restauré » ; « l’Amérique est à nouveau respectée ». Tout le vocabulaire du discours renvoie à la renaissance : retour, restauration, rétablissement, fierté retrouvée. L’idée n’est pas seulement qu’un changement de majorité a eu lieu, mais qu’un ordre perdu a été rétabli.

Le troisième temps est celui de la destinée. Trump relie explicitement son mandat au 250e anniversaire de l’indépendance, à « l’esprit de 1776 », puis conclut que « notre destin est écrit par la main de la Providence ». Cette tonalité religieuse n’a rien d’exceptionnel dans ce type d’allocution, tant les présidents états-uniens inscrivent souvent la nation dans une mission historique sous le regard de Dieu. Mais, chez Trump, elle sert aussi à suggérer que son retour au pouvoir s’inscrit lui-même dans cette destinée.

En réalité, Trump capte les grands mythes nationaux pour les mettre au service de sa propre personne. La foi, la grandeur « américaine » ou la mission historique des États-Unis ne servent plus à rassembler autour d’un destin commun : elles servent à ériger le président en sauveur indispensable, comme lorsqu’il déclare, n’hésitant pas à parler de lui-même à la troisième personne : « La seule chose qui se dresse aujourd’hui entre les États-Uniens et une frontière totalement ouverte, c’est le président Donald J. Trump. »

Un spectacle de loyauté

Le discours sur l’état de l’Union n’est jamais seulement un texte : c’est aussi une mise en scène. Depuis Ronald Reagan, les invités dans les tribunes, les récits individuels, les pauses et les réactions de la salle sont utilisés comme incarnation d’un mini-récit moral : victime innocente, héros ordinaire, mère endeuillée, vétéran exemplaire. C’est une succession de scènes émotionnelles dans une logique dramaturgique.

Le moment le plus révélateur est sans doute celui où Trump lance aux parlementaires : « Si vous êtes d’accord avec cette affirmation, levez-vous et montrez votre soutien. » L’affirmation est formulée de manière à piéger l’opposition : « Le premier devoir du gouvernement américain est de protéger les citoyens américains, pas les immigrés illégaux. » Si ses adversaires se lèvent, ils valident son récit. S’ils restent assis, il peut les présenter comme hostiles à la protection des citoyens.

On est là au cœur d’une rhétorique du test de loyauté. Lorsqu’il lance aux démocrates restés assis qu’« ils devraient avoir honte », puis les qualifie un peu plus loin de « fous », Trump ne cherche pas seulement à les discréditer ; il met en scène une opposition morale entre, d’un côté, les patriotes et, de l’autre, ceux qu’il présente comme les traîtres et les ennemis du bon sens. Le Congrès n’apparaît plus comme un lieu de délibération entre adversaires légitimes, mais comme une scène où l’opposition est sommée de se révéler publiquement.

Une seule intrigue, quel que soit le sujet

L’une des clés du discours est qu’il raconte finalement toujours la même histoire, quel que soit le thème abordé.

Immigration, économie, sécurité, politique étrangère : tout est réorganisé autour d’une même matrice morale. Le pays aurait été trahi, exposé, affaibli ; des ennemis clairement identifiables en auraient profité et lui seul aurait la capacité de restaurer la grandeur de l’Amérique. Une grande partie de ce récit repose pourtant sur des affirmations fausses, exagérées ou trompeuses. Ces distorsions brouillent le débat public et fabriquent une perception altérée du réel. Peu importe puisqu’il s’agit moins d’établir des faits que de consolider une intrigue simple, dramatique et politiquement efficace.

Sur l’immigration, cette logique est particulièrement visible. Trump parle d’« invasion à la frontière », associe les « immigrés illégaux » au crime, au fentanyl et à la violence, puis relie cette question à celle des élections en demandant des mesures destinées à empêcher les « personnes non autorisées » de voter dans les « élections américaines sacrées ». La frontière, la citoyenneté et l’intégrité électorale fusionnent ainsi dans un même récit de protection du corps national.

L’économie obéit à la même logique. Trump ne se présente pas comme un pédagogue expliquant des mécanismes ou des contraintes, mais comme celui qui aurait remis l’Amérique debout. Les prix « s’effondrent », les revenus « augmentent rapidement », le pays serait redevenu « le plus attractif du monde ». Là encore, la technicité – et la réalité des faits – importe moins que l’image du redressement.

La politique étrangère, enfin, est aussi abordée selon cette approche. Lorsqu’il parle de l’Iran, de l’OTAN, de l’Ukraine, du Venezuela ou des cartels latino-américains de la drogue, Trump développe moins une doctrine cohérente qu’un imaginaire de puissance. La formule la plus révélatrice est sans doute « la paix par la force ». L’international devient ainsi le théâtre où se mesure la crédibilité du chef.

Une religion civique personnalisée

Le dernier trait marquant du discours est la place accordée au religieux et au providentialisme. Trump se félicite d’« un immense renouveau de la religion, de la foi, du christianisme et de la croyance en Dieu ». Il appelle aussi à réaffirmer que « l’Amérique est une nation sous Dieu ». Puis il pousse encore plus loin cette logique en déclarant que, « quand Dieu a besoin d’une nation pour accomplir ses miracles, il sait exactement à qui s’adresser », et que « notre destin est écrit par la main de la Providence ».




À lire aussi :
« Make Religion Great Again » : la place de la religion dans l’État trumpien


Ces formules ne sont pas de simples ornements pieux. Elles donnent au récit politique une intensité quasi sacrée. Trump s’inscrit ici dans la tradition états-unienne de la religion civile, où la nation est investie d’une mission historique. Mais il en accentue la dimension partisane et personnelle : ce registre sert moins à universaliser le consensus qu’à souder un camp et à suggérer que le redressement national passe par un leadership incarné.

Au fond, ce discours dit quelque chose de plus large sur le trumpisme en 2026. Il ne rompt pas avec la tradition des grands mythes présidentiels états-uniens ; il les transforme. Il reprend les thèmes les plus classiques – la nation trahie, la renaissance, la Providence, 1776, la mission, la grandeur – mais les réorganise autour d’une figure de sauveur plus personnelle, plus spectaculaire et plus conflictuelle que chez ses prédécesseurs.

Le discours sur l’état de l’Union cesse alors d’être un simple bilan institutionnel. Il devient un rite de restauration nationale – et, en même temps, un test public de loyauté.

The Conversation

Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Le discours sur l’état de l’Union de Trump, ou la perversion des « mythes américains » – https://theconversation.com/le-discours-sur-letat-de-lunion-de-trump-ou-la-perversion-des-mythes-americains-277132

A virus hiding inside bacteria may help explain colorectal cancer

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ryan Cook, Research Scientist, Bioscience, Quadram Institute

SewCreamStudio/Shutterstock.com

The gut bacterium Bacteroides fragilis has long presented researchers with a paradox. It has been associated with colorectal cancer, yet it also lives quite happily in most healthy people. A new study from a Danish research team offers a possible clue. When they looked beyond the bacterium itself and into its genome, they found a previously unknown virus embedded within it – one that was significantly more common in cancer patients.

Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer worldwide and is responsible for the second highest number of cancer-related deaths. Up to 80% of colorectal cancer cases are attributed to environmental factors, with one of the most significant being the gut microbiome – the collection of bacteria, fungi and viruses that live in the human gut.

This means that colorectal cancer could – in theory – be partly preventable. But the precise link between the microbiome and colorectal cancer remains poorly understood. It is much easier to associate two things than it is to show a mechanism.

Most studies of the gut microbiome examine which species of bacteria are present and how abundant they are. But species are not homogeneous. Think of how all domestic dogs belong to the same species (Canis familiaris) yet show enormous within-species diversity – a chihuahua is not the same as a great dane. The same is true for bacteria, even if it is harder to visualise.

Just looking at which species are present may not give us the resolution we need to understand what is going on. Perhaps the answer lies not in which bacteria are in the gut, but in the finer genetic differences between strains of the same species.

Bacteroides fragilis is generally considered a harmless member of the gut microbiome and is found in most healthy people. Despite this, it has repeatedly been found to be more abundant in people with colorectal cancer. So could there be specific genetic features that set some strains of B fragilis apart from others, and could these features be linked to colorectal cancer?

Even bacteria get infections

All cellular life can be infected by viruses. Bacteria are no exception. The specific viruses that infect bacteria are called bacteriophages – from the Greek phagos, meaning to eat or devour. They selectively infect bacteria and, importantly, do not infect human cells.

But not all of these viruses kill the bacteria they infect. Some integrate their own genome within the bacterium’s genome, becoming what is known as a prophage – a hitchhiker within the bacterial cell.

Many prophages carry genes that can alter the characteristics of their bacterial host. Diseases such as cholera, botulism and diphtheria are all the result of toxins carried by prophages within otherwise (mostly) harmless bacteria. The conversion of harmless bacteria to harmful ones by prophages is well documented.

To determine whether specific genetic signatures linked B fragilis to colorectal cancer, a Danish team sequenced the genomes of B fragilis from people with and without a colorectal cancer diagnosis.

First, they looked at whether the cancer-associated bacteria came from a distinct evolutionary lineage. They did not. But not all genetic features of bacteria are passed from mother to daughter. Some are acquired sideways, through a process called horizontal gene transfer – such as infection by a prophage.

When the researchers compared the genomes more closely, they found that bacteria from cancer patients carried two previously unknown prophages that were largely absent in bacteria from people without cancer.

These prophages did not carry any obvious genes that would link the bacteria to colorectal cancer – in the way that cholera toxin genes are readily identifiable – but most prophage-carried genes are very poorly understood and we know little about what they do.

A broader test

This initial finding was based on 48 bacteria collected from patients, so the team wanted to test whether the pattern held more broadly. They screened data from faecal samples taken from 877 people across Europe, the US and Asia – 434 with colorectal cancer and 443 without.

Patients with colorectal cancer were more than twice as likely to have detectable levels of the prophages. It is important to stress that this is an association, not proof that these prophages cause or contribute to colorectal cancer. No biological mechanism by which they might do so has been proposed.

It is also possible that the gut environment in cancer patients simply suits these particular strains of B fragilis – meaning the disease could be creating conditions in which the bacteria thrive, rather than the bacteria helping to cause the disease. An alternative explanation is that the gut environment itself predisposes people both to harbour these prophage-containing strains and to develop colorectal cancer.

The study had limitations worth noting. The bacteria originally examined came from patients with bloodstream infections rather than bowel cancer itself, while the broader validation used stool samples – a different source entirely. And some of the “healthy” comparison group had not been formally confirmed to be cancer free.

Despite these limitations, the finding raises an interesting possibility for cancer screening. The most common non-invasive screening method for colorectal cancer is the “faecal immunochemical test”, which checks stool samples for traces of blood. A test that also screened for these viral traces could, in principle, be performed on the same samples.

A preliminary analysis by the researchers found that a panel based on fragments of the prophage genomes detected around 40% of colorectal cancer cases. This is a very early result and would need considerable further work, but it points to the possibility of using viral signatures alongside existing screening methods.

The broader implication of this work is a shift in how we think about the gut microbiome and its relationship to disease. It may not be enough to ask which bacteria are present. We may also need to look at what is inside those bacteria – and what those hidden passengers might be doing.

The Conversation

Ryan Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A virus hiding inside bacteria may help explain colorectal cancer – https://theconversation.com/a-virus-hiding-inside-bacteria-may-help-explain-colorectal-cancer-276695

Wallace & Gromit, Biba style and the irrepressible Tracey Emin: what to visit and see this week

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jane Wright, Commissioning Editor, Arts & Culture, The Conversation

When I was growing up there were three channels on the telly, which seems quaint now. You watched what was on, like it or lump it. But I have only good memories of children’s TV in the 1970s. Hiding behind a cushion as we watched Dr Who, singing along to Sesame Street, lots of excellent dramas, and a surprising array of weird trippy stop-motion animation that featured stoned rabbits and talking TVs.

But my favourite was a wonderful art show aimed primarily at deaf children called Vision On. (For anyone who’d like a walk down memory lane, listen to the groovy theme tune below and transport yourself back to your 1970s living room.)

Vision On.

A lovely man called Tony Hart shared simple art techniques, and later got his own spin-off show called Take Hart. It was here in 1977 that I first encountered a charming little Plasticine character called Morph who persisted in interrupting Tony has he tried to make art, generally making a mess and causing chaos. But always in the most endearing way.

It was groundbreaking stuff in those days, watching a ball of plasticine unfurl into this funny little figure with big eyes and a bigger heart. Who would have guessed Morph was the beginning of Aardman, one of the most successful stop-motion animation studios in the world? One that would go on to create beloved characters like Wallace & Gromit and even win Oscars?

That success is surely down to a very British sensibility that celebrates quirk and eccentricity, chewy regional accents, DIY and a heroic sweetness that remains untainted by cynicism. I still marvel at the genius of the long-suffering Gromit’s scowl, conveyed only by two indented thumbprints for eyebrows.

Aardman’s work is now rightly being celebrated in an exhibition at the Young V&A in London. We sent along animation expert Christopher Holliday to give us his take as the studio celebrates almost half a century of hi-octane slapstick, unlikely heroes and comical villains.

Two national treasures

It’s a great week for celebrating quintessential Britishness in film, art and fashion. In Edinburgh The Biba Story has just begun at the wonderful Dovecot tapestry studio. The show is a warm, inclusive and affectionate look at the impact of Barbara Hulanicki’s groundbreaking Biba fashion and lifestyle label that brought a splash of excitement to drab postwar Britain in the mid-1960s. Best of all are the vivid memories of women now in their eighties describing the thrill of high fashion at low prices in their teens.

At the Tate Modern in London, the irrepressible Tracey Emin is back with a restrospective called, appropriately, Tracey Emin: A Second Life after she rose like a phoenix from the ashes of her grim encounter with cancer and the life-changing surgery that followed. I adore Emin (even though I don’t always like her work) because she makes art utterly on her own terms. Complicated, contradictory, uncompromising and fearless, many people find that altogether too much in one woman. But Emin mines her life and experience in ways that make her vulnerable which I find brave, honest and admirable.

Films heading for the Oscars

Wagner Moura and Rose Byrne are each nominated for best actor/actress gongs at this year’s Oscars, and both, according to our reviewers, would be worthy winners.

Set in 1977 during Brazil’s two-decade dictatorship, The Secret Agent is a gripping thriller that features an outstanding performance from Moura. The Brazilian actor plays Armando, an academic forced into hiding after clashing with big business interests aligned with the regime who want to get their hands on his research. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s film makes clear that authoritarianism attacks society not only through violence and repression of civilians, but through the silencing of knowledge and learning. This timely and important film reminds us why academic freedom must be protected.

Rose Byrne gives a relentless performance as Linda, an exhausted resentful mother quickly unravelling in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Her husband who works away is unconcerned that she is looking after their seriously ill daughter solo. Her unfulfilling but demanding work as a therapist piles on more pressure and her own therapist is deeply unsympathetic. Unsupported and drowning in despair, she is unable to find respite. This dark and unsettling film, says our reviewer Laura O’Flanagan, “is an example of how cinema has become less interested in saccharine, idealised depictions of mothers and more concerned with their inner lives, however messy”.

The Conversation

ref. Wallace & Gromit, Biba style and the irrepressible Tracey Emin: what to visit and see this week – https://theconversation.com/wallace-and-gromit-biba-style-and-the-irrepressible-tracey-emin-what-to-visit-and-see-this-week-274175

No, autistic people are not ‘mind blind’ – here’s why

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Travis LaCroix, Assistant Professor of Philosophy, Durham University

maxim ibragimov/Shutterstock.com

For four decades, a controversial idea has shaped how autism is understood by researchers, healthcare professionals and the public: the claim that autistic people are “mind blind”. The phrase suggests an inability to grasp what others think or feel. It is simple, memorable – and wrong.

The claim rests on a concept called “theory of mind”. In everyday terms, theory of mind is the ability to recognise that other people’s thoughts, beliefs and emotions may differ from your own. This idea explains why someone understands that a joke can fall flat, that a promise can be broken, or that a friend can be mistaken without lying. It is often presented as the key to how people make sense of one another.

The idea entered psychology in the late 1970s, when researchers began asking how children learn to reason about other minds. Simple stories were designed to test this ability, often involving a character who holds a false belief. If a child could predict that the character would act on that belief, they were taken to have a theory of mind. These tasks quickly became a standard tool in developmental research.

In 1985, one such test was used in a study of autistic children. In the “Sally-Anne” task, a doll (Sally) hides a marble, leaves the room, and returns after another doll (Anne) has moved it. Asked where Sally will look, many autistic children in that study gave the “wrong” answer. This finding was interpreted as evidence that autistic children lacked theory of mind.

The Sally-Anne test

A cartoon of the Sally-Anne test.
Does the autistic child really not have a ‘theory of mind’?
Simon Baron-Cohen, Alan M. Leslie, and Uta Frith

From this experiment, a vast research programme followed. New tasks multiplied: reading emotions from photos of eyes, interpreting short stories, judging intentions from animated shapes.

Across the late 1980s and 1990s, scientific papers and popular media represented autism as defined by a core failure to understand minds. The theory stuck, appearing in academic articles, textbooks, court rulings and popular science writing.

The problem is that the evidence never supported the claim. Even in the original study, one in five autistic children passed the task. Later research found huge variation. Some studies showed most autistic participants passing theory-of-mind tests; others found little or no difference between autistic and non-autistic groups. A theory meant to describe a key deficit kept running into exceptions.

More troubling is the tests themselves. Many rely heavily on language. Performance is often better predicted by vocabulary level than whether someone is autistic.

Different theory-of-mind tasks also fail to line up with one another, suggesting they are not measuring a single underlying ability at all. If an ability cannot be measured consistently, claims about its absence become doubtful.

At this point, a straightforward scientific response would have been to reconsider the theory. Instead, it was repeatedly patched.

When autistic people passed a task, researchers argued that the task was too simple. New, more complex tasks were introduced, which produced the same mixed results. When findings contradicted the core idea, the definition of “theory of mind” quietly expanded to include eye contact, joint attention, or social motivation.

When science stops testing

This pattern matters because of what it says about how science works. Drawing on the philosophy of science, my recent analysis argues that theory-of-mind research in autism has become “degenerating”. Rather than generating new, risky predictions, the theory survives by shifting definitions and goalposts to avoid being disproved. When no possible result counts against a theory, it stops being scientific. In a subsequent response to commentators, I explore why the theory-of-mind paradigm has persisted despite its deep empirical and conceptual difficulties.

Questioning this idea did not come from a single paper or field. Psychologists, linguists, and philosophers all raised concerns. So did autistic people, whose everyday experiences often flatly contradicted the idea that they lacked insights into others.

Studies began to show that non-autistic people are just as poor at interpreting autistic expressions as the reverse. Social misunderstanding, it turns out, goes both ways.

That insight helped fuel alternative approaches. One approach frames communication breakdowns as mutual mismatches between different styles of thinking and communicating, rather than deficits located in autistic people.

Another focuses on differences in attention and interest, offering an explanation of perception, motivation and learning. These approaches generate new, testable questions and align more closely with people’s actual experiences.

Today, the field is at a crossroads. The idea that autistic people are mind blind lacks a secure foundation. Its empirical support has weakened, and its assumptions are increasingly questioned. What remains is its influence. When educators or healthcare professionals assume a lack of empathy, they are less likely to trust autistic people’s own accounts or involve them in decisions that affect their lives.

Abandoning this myth does not weaken autism science. It strengthens it. Social understanding is not absent in autism; it is shaped differently, expressed in different contexts, and often overlooked when the wrong tools are used. Autistic people are not mind blind. They think and understand differently, and the evidence has pointed that way for some time. It’s time science reflected that.

The Conversation

Travis LaCroix received funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council (Canada).

ref. No, autistic people are not ‘mind blind’ – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/no-autistic-people-are-not-mind-blind-heres-why-272848

Why the Legend of Zelda games still resonate with players after 40 years

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Annayah Prosser, Assistant Professor in Marketing, Business and Society, University of Bath

A large model of Link from the Zelda games, in Tokyo. yu_photo/Shutterstock

Nintendo’s Legend of Zelda video game series celebrated its 40th anniversary in February 2026. Millions of players across the world have grown up alongside the 21-title series, from the release of the original game on the Famicom gaming system in 1986, to the most recent game, Echoes of Wisdom, published for the Switch in 2024.

The Zelda games were inspired by series creator Shigeru Miyamoto’s childhood in the Japanese countryside. They frequently involve complex environmental exploration and problem solving.

Over time, the series has moved from pixelated forests into high resolution, awe-inspiring landscapes. In that time, Zelda has become an intergenerational success, released in new forms for new generations with each Nintendo console.

Many Zelda games serve as flagships for these new consoles, tying the game experience into new technological capacities – showcasing the motion control of the Wii, the dual screens of the DS, and the joystick first introduced on the the N64. Just as the console technology has evolved, so has the Zelda series.

The series is one of Nintendo’s biggest commercial successes, with an estimated 150 million copies of the games sold worldwide. The most popular game within the series, Breath of the Wild (released on the Switch in 2018), has sold more than 34 million copies to date.




Read more:
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom review – a masterclass in rewarding curiosity


Beyond the game

As well as fun past times, video games can be important vehicles for social connection and personal development. The Zelda series grapples with age-old struggles of good versus evil and destruction versus creation.

I’m the editor of the Psychgeist of Pop Culture: The Legend of Zelda – an open-access book which explores the social and psychological impact of the series across a variety of domains. In the book, researchers like myself show how engaging with virtual stories and problems can help us to better understand our own day-to-day lives. For example, recent research from social scientist George Farmer shows that playing video games can be a helpful form of stress relief during times of crisis.

The moral dilemmas presented in the Zelda games also help to train players for real-world social action. Experimental psychologist Kathryn Francis argues in her chapter that the games provide players with an immersive virtual space for moral reflection and development.

In my own chapter, I analysed the environmental narratives of the games Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom to assess their potential impact on players. I argued that experiencing the environmental devastation wrought by villains in the games, and having the power to save the world in this setting might also equip players with the tools and motivation to address the climate crisis in real life.

The Zelda series can also help players to understand and interrogate their identities, and the roles we play within our own lives. The games allow players to explore what it means to be a hero, villain, or a princess with increasing freedom of expression and action.

They can choose to save the world as quickly as possible (by doing a “speedrun”) or they can take their time to get to know the community and environment. This freedom of play allows for different experiences which appeal to different types of players, making the series particularly versatile. In the games players get to experiment with different quests and narrative paths, and learn more about themselves, their values and preferences in the process.

Forty years on, the Zelda franchise shouldn’t just be seen as a purely economic success. Rather, it should be understood as a cultural powerhouse which has had a very real impact on the lives of millions around the world.

Given the generational staying power of these games, many Zelda fans across the world will be eagerly awaiting the next step for the series. What might the 40th anniversary celebrations bring? Will a new title be revealed? What will the first Switch 2 Zelda game be? Will the virtual world translate well to the upcoming live-action film?

Regardless of the answers to these questions, the series likely will likely to have a significant impact on its players around the world for decades to come.


Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.


The Conversation

Annayah Prosser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why the Legend of Zelda games still resonate with players after 40 years – https://theconversation.com/why-the-legend-of-zelda-games-still-resonate-with-players-after-40-years-276456