Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kawser Ahmed, Adjunct Professor, Natural Resource Institute (NRI), University of Manitoba
As the nation mourns after Canada’s deadliest school shooting in modern history, a question looms for people both close to the events and further away: Why? As with other mass shootings, this painful question is complex and difficult to answer.
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As reported by the New York Times, an investigation into the shooter’s online life “offers a chronicle of a young person’s gradual descent into mental health crises and radicalization into extreme violence.”
As a researcher focused on preventing radicalization to violence and extremism — and who recently created a public resource about countering radicalization to violence in Manitoba schools — I believe a violent extremism trend analysis could be relevant towards potentially helping to prevent such tragedies through addressing potential education or policy gaps.
Schools navigate risks, threats
School shooting incidents are rare in Canada in comparison to the United States. Among these, the 1989 École Polytechnique Montréal massacre and the 2016 La Loche, Sask., high school attack are notable.
CNN reports that in the U.S., after school closures in 2020 led to a drop in gun violence at schools, recent years saw an increase in school shootings, with 2021 through 2024 each setting records not seen since at least 2008.
Incidents like the Tumbler Ridge shooting can have ripple effects in the form of threats, as was seen this past week in Manitoba.
Nihilist violent extremists
In making sense of senseless mass murder in Tumbler Ridge, trends shows that youth radicalization to violent extremism is both real and dangerous. A growing trend of violence for its own sake, driven by hate among young people, is rapidly re-shaping traditional extremism studies.
For example, experts concerned with violent extremism like Marc-André Argentino point towards a deeper understanding of nihilist violent extremists, which refers to “those on the fringe actively encouraging, promoting, glorifying or engaging in serious acts of violence for the sake of violence and chaos in and of itself, the consequences of which have no clear end state.”
Argentino has also cautioned about the Com Network — a large international online community that is linked to a wide range of criminal activity, including real-world violence. According to his research, between 2020 and 2025, there were 194 arrests tied to the network across 29 countries, and those cases are associated with 5,040 people harmed, victimized or killed. The average age of those arrested is 20.4, but both perpetrators and victims are trending younger, with the youngest arrested perpetrator at 11 and the youngest known victim at eight.
Provoking harm
Such violence does not occur in a vacuum. In a world of instant connectivity through various encrypted communication platforms or channels, young people can inadvertently fall victim to the promotion of mass violence, and some eventually turn into grooming agents influencing others. Findings indicate that nihilistic violence is more prevalent among teenagers than adults.
One study examining the rise of nihilistic violence cited an incident of an attack in Sweden, and concluded that an increasing trend of youth radicalization via decentralized online extremist networks gamifies violence and leverages digital anonymity to provoke real-world harm.
Varied ways youth can be drawn into violence
In contrast to conventional extremist organizations characterized by hierarchical structures and explicit agendas, nihilistic violent groups are decentralized, leaderless and digitally highly innovative. They utilize social engineering strategies, anonymity and visual propaganda (often referred to as “esthetics of violence”) to rapidly radicalize individuals.
A primary concern is their emphasis on disenchanted youth, whom they attract through sentiments of alienation, dissatisfaction and yearning for acknowledgement.
Their propaganda re-contextualizes violence as social capital: the more brutal and dramatic an act, the more esteemed the perpetrator becomes within the group. In the process of radicalization, people do not need a “guru,” and there is no need for traditional indoctrination pipelines with this network approach.
Self-radicalization can happen fast and with little to no help from a recruiter. Radicalization into committing violence can happen by reading digital content, participating in forums and finally acting without any direct organizational oversight.
Gun pride normalizes gun culture, and this can inadvertently lead an extremist recruiter to a young person. Online environments in the age of AI are something like the wild West, and currently, only major tech platforms take some responsibilities to moderate content (often when something goes wrong).
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Many factors can contribute to youth’s vulnerability to radicalization to violence, and no single profile exists of who is at risk. Factors can include low self-esteem, physical or emotional abuse, socio-economic circumstances, bullying or ostracization by peers, or political or religious affiliations.
Challenges reporting concerns
In many cases of extremist violence, a perpetrator’s warning signs are only seen in retrospect, and are understood to have been ignored due to a lack of education or training and policy support.
Combined with this are omnipresent uncommitted attitudes that exists at various levels within schools. Often, people are unsure where to report their concerns or who will be ultimately responsible for responding to them.
Almost all attacks carried out by individuals with no criminal records have left trails of indications of grievance, frustration and hopelessness that needed to be picked up early and monitored seriously.
A couple of strong cross-Canada examples for responding to community concern about potential extremism and violence are Québec’s Centre for the Prevention of Radicalization to Leading to Violence and Alberta’s Organization for the Prevention of Violence. Both offer substantive community resources, programs or support services.
Multi-stakeholder approaches needed
While security specialists argue that “one size fits all” approaches aren’t applicable to deal with context-sensitive attacks like the Tumbler Ridge, acknowledging that there are people and social networks promoting nihilistic violent extremism is one essential step for intervention.
A security-only approach cannot address such threats — a co-ordinated, multi-stakeholder approach is needed.
Educators play an important role in picking up behavioural indicators, yet they need to be supported by a policy on intervention in conjunction with parents or guardians. But policies must also address youth and young people who have dropped out of education, or who aren’t enrolled.
It might seem to be an impossible task, however, multiple stakeholders such as researchers, policymakers, educators, community leaders, public health and government officials could be participating actively in carefully designed intervention strategies.
Strategies should prioritize a grievance-oriented and trauma-informed methodology to address teen distress, emphasizing exit from the online world while reducing exclusion and stigma.
Ultimately, we must recognize that our youth need assistance. Educators, parents or guardians and our broader communities are pivotal in safeguarding them from nihilistic violent extremist recruiters.
Kawser Ahmed has implemented Extremism and Radicalization to Violence Prevention in Manitoba (ERIM) – a Public Safety, Canada funded project and currently received a grant from Canadian Network for Research on Security Extremism and Society (CANSES) for further research.
– ref. Nihilistic violent extremist networks recruit vulnerable people — and our youth need support – https://theconversation.com/nihilistic-violent-extremist-networks-recruit-vulnerable-people-and-our-youth-need-support-275883