A democracy or a republic? History shows that some Americans are asking the wrong question

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Barbara Clark Smith, Curator, Division of Political History, Smithsonian Institution

A Harper’s Weekly image of the first reading of the Declaration of Independence outside Independence Hall in Philadelphia on July 8, 1776. MPI/Getty Images

As the nation observes its 250th birthday, historians can help settle one present-day dispute: Is the United States a democracy or a republic?

For years, advocates have argued the point.

Yet the question itself is misleading. It assumes that the categories constructed by political theorists neatly describe actual practice.

As a historian of early America, I know this nation has always been unwieldy, its institutions hammered out from conflicting ideals and the pragmatic lessons of lived experience. Just as Britain today is both a monarchy and a democracy, so the U.S. has always been a hybrid.

Ideals of both republicanism and democracy have shaped the nation. To understand how requires a history lesson.

No purity

A yellowed page from a 1787 newspaper, covered in small print.
James Madison’s essay, known as Federalist X, was published under the pseudonym ‘Publius’ in the New York Daily Advertiser on Nov. 22, 1787.
Library of Congress

Let’s start with a famous definition. Here is the often-quoted “Father of the Constitution,” James Madison, urging Americans to ratify the new frame of government proposed by the Constitutional Convention in 1787.

In Federalist essay No. 10, Madison distinguished two sorts of governments for his readers.

One was a “pure democracy,” which he described as “a society consisting of a small number of citizens, who assemble and administer the government in person.” A New England town meeting might qualify for this definition, where voters assembled to choose town officers and approve local bylaws.

The other type of government was a “republic,” defined as “a government in which the scheme of representation takes place
– meaning where the people’s chosen representatives made governing decisions for them.

That seems cut and dried. Surely no one thought the entire population of 13 states could work like a town meeting.

But Madison here was saying only that the possibility of a “pure” democracy was impractical. He was by no means banishing all democratic ideas and institutions.

As the French theorist Montesquieu had noted, republics were of varying sorts. Some republics were aristocratic, controlled by a relative few who were set above the rest. Other republics were democratic, engaging many more in the ongoing affairs of government.

What was at stake in the U.S. in 1787 wasn’t a “pure” democracy nor a “pure” republic. The issue was how aristocratic – and how democratic – the American scheme of representation would be.

Who would be represented – the many or the few?

‘Actual’ representation

America had never been the home of an aristocracy in the British sense. Besides, the Revolution had discredited the very idea of hereditary power. There would be no House of Lords, filled with titled men born into political power and a special set of legal privileges denied to ordinary people. The people alone would be sovereign, and all authority to govern derived, directly or indirectly, from them.

Even so, the problem of aristocracy remained. After all, it had been the lower house of Parliament – the House of Commons, not of Lords – that had sparked the imperial debate when it tried to tax and legislate for the Colonists.

Not nobility, members of the Commons still formed a remote and ambitious elite. None was elected by American voters or even necessarily informed about the Colonists’ lives. Apologists for Parliament claimed that the Commons “virtually” represented the Colonies anyway.

But the Colonists watched the Commons ignore American grievances while favoring private interests – East India Company shareholders, for example – that served wealthy British gentlemen such as themselves.

Many concluded that the members of the House of Commons did not “actually” represent either the poor of Britain or the growing population of the continental Colonies.

In contrast, “patriot” Americans pointed to the legislative assemblies established in each colony soon after its founding.

Needing to attract British settlers, and following the British model, each colony established an elected house of the legislature to provide a check to governors and upper houses that were appointed by the king or a wealthy Colonial proprietor.

Law and custom required that delegates to these assemblies live among their constituents. Although they were men of some fortune and standing in their districts, assemblymen might plausibly “actually represent” their lesser neighbors.

In the lead-up to the Revolution, patriots used new measures to ensure their representatives’ fidelity: They called for vigilant popular oversight of government decision, publicized those decisions in the press, wrote constituent instructions for legislators and winnowed out noncompliant officeholders at election time.

Individual and collective liberties

With independence, Americans created a patchwork of new, representative state governments. South Carolina empowered its wealthy planter elite by setting a high property-holding requirement for voters and a higher one for officeholders. Pennsylvania and Vermont adopted unprecedentedly democratic systems that allowed a large proportion of the white male population to participate in government.

By 1787, some Americans thought there was too much popular democracy – too much power given to nonelite members of society, especially within state governments.

The Constitution adopted restraints on democracy – a Senate appointed by state legislatures, an electoral college that put the choice of president at a remove from the people, a supremacy clause that allowed national laws to supersede, or contravene, state laws.

At the same time, a commitment to democracy was also evident in the U.S. frame of government.

A man with rosy skin and curled white hair looks off to the distance against a dark curtain.
Founder James Madison, frustrated when pushed to define the U.S. government, said the ordinary ‘political vocabulary’ fell short.
Painting by Gilbert Stuart, National Gallery

The Constitution set no property requirements for federal officeholders. It left suffrage requirements up to individual states, some of which already extended the vote to all male taxpayers.

Equally important, the ratification process produced a consensus that a bill of rights was necessary to protect ordinary people’s rights and liberties from government overreach.

These first 10 amendments would defend individual rights but also collective rights of the people, such as their right to assemble, to petition the government or even to change it.

The Bill of Rights also protected a free press. It ensured that ordinary free men would still serve in armed militias when their state needed protection. And they would still sit on grand and petit juries to enforce the law or prevent its overreach.

These were the sorts of institutions that the lawyer John Adams called “democratical.”

More and better democracy

Within a few decades, the common phrase for the American system became “democracy.”

Madison had been inconsistent in how he used the term. In the 1790s and 1800s he called himself a “Democratic Republican,” in opposition to the allegedly aristocratic party, the Federalists.
Decades later, Madison was frustrated when pushed to define the U.S. government more precisely. Ordinary “political vocabulary” fell short, he wrote. The American system was “so unexampled in its origin, so complex in its structure, and so peculiar in some of its features” that it was best understood as something new.

How aristocratic? How democratic? The question of 1787 has returned repeatedly to face Americans.

Elites with aristocratic aspirations have repeatedly tried to build permanent governing hierarchies. American history is partly the story of these contests – Free-Soilers against a slaveholding elite, reformers against wealthy “barons” of the Gilded Age, critics of inequality against billionaires who shape government policies today. In such cases, Americans have often turned to more and better democracy, their necessary resource for pressing their political leaders to actually represent the people.

Following Madison’s advice, Americans today can refuse to be misled into describing the U.S. in a single, inadequate term.

They might prize both of these historic commitments: to a republic that insists on the people’s right to be represented rather than ruled, and to a democracy that ensures that ordinary people might collectively make it so.

The Conversation

Barbara Clark Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A democracy or a republic? History shows that some Americans are asking the wrong question – https://theconversation.com/a-democracy-or-a-republic-history-shows-that-some-americans-are-asking-the-wrong-question-274798

How balcony solar can help renters and homeowners save money

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Moncef Krarti, Professor of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder

Small-scale solar panels mounted on balconies can help more households use renewable energy. Jens Büttner/picture alliance via Getty Images

Somewhere between 5% and 7% of U.S. households have rooftop solar panels. Many more Americans want them, but high costs, building locations and landlord restrictions are key obstacles.

As someone who has designed and evaluated a wide range of building energy efficiency technologies, including integrated photovoltaic systems, I know that other options are available elsewhere in the world – and are becoming available in the U.S. Plug-in solar systems, also referred to as balcony solar systems, are alternatives to rooftop panels that still generate electricity from sunlight, but without complex and expensive installations.

Plug-in solar systems are designed to be used without requiring specialized technicians, construction permits or permission from electricity utility companies. A typical system consists of small photovoltaic panels that can be placed on a balcony, in a backyard or on a deck or roof area. They are connected to the home’s electrical system by simply plugging them into a regular power outlet.

European popularity

In Europe, systems like this have been legal for more than a decade. They are wildly popular, especially for renters who do not have permission to install permanent solar panels on their buildings.

In Germany, the introduction of balcony solar raised the share of households with solar panels to about 10%.

Germans can buy plug-in solar kits in local retail stores and set them up quickly at home, with no help or oversight from technicians or utility companies. Estimates find that with current electricity prices in Germany, the systems generate enough power to pay for themselves in less than three years.

Legal changes afoot in the US

In the U.S., the main barrier to widespread availability and adoption of plug-in solar systems is that current laws and regulations do not distinguish them from larger rooftop panel systems.

In most cases, solar panels on buildings that are connected to the power grid must be installed by professionals, because they typically require additional equipment that prevents too much of the home-generated power from entering the grid. This process also requires a permit from a state or local government.

For balcony solar systems, the grid-protection equipment is built in to what consumers buy at the store. But in most states, the laws don’t recognize a difference and still require permits and professional installation for any solar panels at all.

However, in 2025, Utah passed a law that removes those requirements for plug-in solar panel systems that generate less than 1,200 watts of power. Maine has enacted a similar law, and one in Colorado awaits the governor’s signature. Both are slated to take effect at different points in 2026. The Vermont Senate passed one too, and the state’s General Assembly is considering it now. And lawmakers in 25 other states are considering similar legislation.

In addition, in early 2026, UL Solutions, an independent safety certification company, announced a new standard for plug-in solar systems in the U.S., which can help consumers feel confident they are buying something that is safe for them to use in their homes.

Costs and benefits

The potential benefits of balcony solar systems vary primarily with the local cost of electricity. Buying these systems can cost between US$1,200 and $2,000, but they can generate enough power to save several hundred dollars in electric bills each year.

They can’t power a whole home, but they can power relatively low loads, like refrigerators, LED lights, laptop computers, phone chargers, televisions and fans, even when a grid power outage occurs.

Depending on their configurations, balcony solar systems can offer additional benefits. Mounting them to movable bases that track the Sun’s path through the sky can boost power generation. Mounting the panels on overhangs can create shade, reducing the need for air conditioning, especially in hot climates.

Adding battery storage to balcony solar systems can also help households store extra energy from the daytime and use it at night, further lowering their utility bills, though buying batteries would raise the costs.

I expect U.S. demand for balcony solar systems to be significant, especially in places with lots of sunlight and high electricity prices. Householders will still need to select their equipment and its location carefully to maximize their power generation and cost savings.

The Conversation

Moncef Krarti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How balcony solar can help renters and homeowners save money – https://theconversation.com/how-balcony-solar-can-help-renters-and-homeowners-save-money-281620

Bullying is common in elementary school – and it’s more likely to happen in classrooms that are chaotic

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Qingqing Yang, Research Scientist of Education, University at Albany, State University of New York

Experiencing bullying frequently in childhood can have lifelong consequences. Malte Mueller/iStock illustrations/Getty

About 1 in 4 elementary students in the United States reports being bullied at least once during a given school year.

Children who are frequently bullied are more likely to struggle in school, experience poorer physical health and face higher risks of depression, anxiety and substance use as they age. These effects can persist into adulthood, contributing to unemployment and financial instability.

Most bullying research focuses on children’s individual traits, such as whether they display signs of aggressiveness or whether their parents physically punish them at home. Children who experience non-physical but harsh or punitive discipline at home may also be more likely to engage in bullying.

Overall, bullying rates vary widely across classrooms.

New research I conducted with colleagues at the University at Albany and other schools finds that classroom environments play an important role in bullying. Children have a slightly higher risk of being bullied when they are in classrooms that are frequently disrupted by student misbehavior, or are chaotic – even after considering individual factors, like a child’s personality and family experiences.

Our findings show that bullying is not only influenced by who children are, but by the environments they are exposed to at school.

Evaluating classroom environments

We analyzed teacher and student surveys collected by the U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics from 2014 through 2016. This nationwide data looked at teachers and children who were in the third, fourth and fifth grades.

Teachers evaluated whether their classroom environment was disruptive by reporting how many students struggled to pay attention, behave appropriately or follow instructions. They also gave an overall rating of classroom misbehavior. Students reported how frequently they were bullied, including being teased, called names, intentionally excluded from play or subjected to physical aggression like pushing and hitting.

To make sure the findings reflected a real pattern and not a coincidence, we used a statistical method that tests whether the same students reported more or less bullying when they were in more or less disruptive or chaotic classrooms across different grades.

In other words, we looked at how changes in a child’s classroom environment were linked to changes in their own experiences of bullying. This approach helps separate the effects of a classroom environment from differences between children’s personal characteristics and experiences at home.

A red sign in the window of a yellow school bus says the bullying stops here!
Bullying prevention often focuses on the behavior of individual children, not classroom environments.
Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Reducing classroom chaos

Traditionally, anti-bullying efforts target individual students’ behaviors or family dynamics. Interventions might include teaching social skills or giving parents more support and training in responding to their kids’ behavior.

However, programs that target only bullies or victims are not always effective at preventing bullying.

Our findings suggest that reducing classroom chaos is a viable path toward decreasing bullying. The effects we observed are small but consistent, meaning the pattern held even under strict tests. We think awareness of this connection could help make a meaningful difference across a classroom.

Teachers reporting that classrooms are disruptive reflects both students’ behavior and the challenges teachers face in overseeing a classroom full of students. These challenges include keeping students focused, encouraging appropriate behavior and ensuring that students follow instruction.

In more chaotic classrooms, students may be talking over one another, leaving their seats or struggling to stay on task. This creates an environment where it is harder to maintain order and can lead to a “spillover effect,” in which negative behaviors spread. As a result, aggression can become more common and even be reinforced within the peer group, increasing the likelihood of bullying.

Managing a chaotic classroom can also be demanding and emotionally exhausting for teachers. They must spend more time handling disruptions and keeping students on task. This can limit not only the time and energy they have to prevent or respond to bullying but also their ability to notice it in the first place.

At the same time, it is important to recognize that chaotic or disruptive classrooms often reflect broader challenges, such as large class sizes, limited school funding and students dealing with difficulties outside of school, such as poverty, housing instability or trauma.

Supporting educators with professional development options, like offering training on how to support students emotionally and connecting rules to positive or negative consequences, can help to reduce the likelihood that children will misbehave in class.

The impact of classroom chaos also intersects with broader social inequalities.

Previous studies show that students from low-income families, racial and ethnic minority backgrounds and those with disabilities face higher risks of being bullied. Our study helps explain why: These students are more likely to be in chaotic classrooms.

This is not because they are deliberately placed in such environments, but because they are more likely to attend schools with low budgets that might have large class sizes, fewer experienced staff and less specialized kinds of support for students.

Next steps

Bullying is a serious issue that often occurs in elementary schools, making prevention an urgent priority. Our findings shift the focus from students’ individual characteristics and backgrounds to the broader classroom environment.

Our findings suggest that reducing classroom chaos may be one promising approach to addressing bullying. Further research is needed to identify additional classroom factors that capture the complexity of classroom dynamics and how they contribute to bullying.

The Conversation

Qingqing Yang receives funding from Spencer Foundation.

ref. Bullying is common in elementary school – and it’s more likely to happen in classrooms that are chaotic – https://theconversation.com/bullying-is-common-in-elementary-school-and-its-more-likely-to-happen-in-classrooms-that-are-chaotic-280872

Denmark’s ‘hands-off’ approach to parenting could offer a blueprint for raising more resilient, self-reliant kids

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Marie Helweg-Larsen, Professor of Psychology, Dickinson College

Children play at Copenhagen’s Superkilen Park. In Denmark, parents generally give their kids wide latitude to explore, use tools and push boundaries. Lorie Shaull/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Much has been written about Denmark’s consistently high scores in global happiness rankings, so it might not come as a surprise that Denmark is also rated the best place to raise children, according to U.S. News and World Report. The small Scandinavian nation also scores near the top for child well-being, a measure of physical health, mental health, education and social relationships.

Government policies like generous parental leave, robust public investment in education and universal healthcare have certainly played a role in these rankings. Danes also score high on social trust, with 74% of Danes agreeing that most people can be trusted, whereas only 37% of Americans say the same.

But another factor could be contributing to Danish children’s well-being: They’re often encouraged to take part in risky, unstructured play.

This might seem at odds with a parent’s desire to do what they can to keep their kids safe. But as a native of Denmark and a psychologist, I’ve explored how the country’s hands-off parenting style may be one key to raising more resilient, self-reliant kids.

The benefits of unstructured play

Danes have two words for the English word “play.” There’s “leg,” which refers to unstructured play; and “spille,” which is used for games or activities with pre-established rules, such as playing soccer, chess or the violin.

Each type of play has benefits. But studies have shown that unstructured, spontaneous play requires more compromise and creativity, since kids have the freedom to change or make up the rules. Children learn to take turns and work through problems – skills that are harder to develop when adults step in or when the rules are predetermined.

Then there’s risky play, a form of unstructured play that involves exciting activities with a possibility of physical injury. On a playground, this might mean climbing tall towers, going headfirst down a slide or roughhousing. Off the playground it might involve building a fire, swimming, biking or using tools like saws, hammers and knives.

Norwegian early childhood education researcher Ellen Beate Hansen Sandseter
pioneered the study of risky play. She’s explored its evolutionary functions – specifically, how it helps children become competent, independent adults. Other researchers have shown that risky play boosts mental health by teaching children to be more resilient and manage their emotions.

Positive risks vs. negative ones

When it comes to risky play, it’s useful to distinguish between positive risks and negative ones.

On a playground, a positive risk is a challenge that a child can recognize and decide to take. They can weigh if they want to try a zip line, or determine when they’ve reached their limit while ascending a climbing net for the first time. The goal is for the child to explore boundaries and learn to manage emotions like fear and anxiety. Sure, there’s the risk of scrapes and bumps. But success can breed more self-confidence.

A negative risk, on the other hand, is a danger that the child does not have the experience or knowledge to foresee. Using playground equipment that has rotted wood, wielding a tool like a drill without proper instruction or swimming in rapids could lead to serious accidents without any learning benefits.

Many playgrounds in Denmark are designed to encourage positive risks. The country has become known for its junk playgrounds, the first of which was created during World War II. These are play areas built with discarded tires, boards and ropes instead of fixed equipment. Kids are often given access to tools so they can build structures and remake the space on their own terms.

The point ultimately isn’t to put kids in harm’s way. It’s to let them explore on their own, test their limits and try new things.

The competent child

Of course, no parent wants to see their child get injured. But research suggests that Danish parents and American parents have distinct perceptions of risk – and different thresholds for what they consider dangerous.

One study compared U.S. and Danish mothers’ reactions to pictures showing a child engaged in 30 different types of play, such as sledding, biking, using a saw to cut wood and climbing a tall tree. It found that Danish mothers, on average, were more likely to say that they would be comfortable with their own child in these situations. In subsequent interviews, Danish mothers were also more likely to talk about practicing risky activities with their kids, such as how to use tools. (One described how she showed her 5-year-old to use an axe to chop wood.)

In fact, Danish daycares often teach children how to use a sharp knife, with some handing out knife diplomas once children have learned the skill. Learning how to ride a bike, meanwhile, can be practiced on what are known as “traffic playgrounds,” which have child-sized streets, bike lanes, traffic lights and signs.

This difference in risk tolerance could stem from differences in parenting approaches. Danish parents see their children as innately competent, meaning they trust their ability to navigate risks and challenges. Adults, in turn, try to create environments for these natural competencies to flourish; they work to encourage cooperation instead of using control.

In contrast, American parents are more likely to see kids as vulnerable and in need of protection. Mental health is a major concern, with 40% of American parents extremely or very worried that their child will suffer from anxiety or depression at some point, according to a 2023 Pew Research Survey. Somewhat ironically, kids who have less independence are more likely to have mental health challenges.

A Danish kindergarten where days are spent exploring the forest.

When permissiveness goes too far

Letting kids take the lead can work well, but sometimes they can’t see or anticipate certain risks.

Danish youth, for example, drink more alcohol than their European peers. A recent survey showed that almost 7 out of 10 Danish ninth grade students had consumed alcohol in the last month, and 1 out of 3 had been drunk in the past month. One study found that Danish parents who are stricter about alcohol consumption are less likely to have teens who frequently drink. Danish culture, overall, has a very permissive attitude toward drinking alcohol, so those parents are few and far between.

Furthermore, Danish 10-year-olds have among the highest rate of smartphone ownership in the world, even as studies have shown that smartphone ownership among children is associated with higher rates of depression, stress and anxiety, as well as less sleep.

But these statistics don’t relate to risky play, which even emergency physicians and nurses champion. Instead, they show how permissive parenting styles can sometimes have negative effects.

The benefits of risky play – like learning to tolerate failure, distress and uncertainty – aren’t just important parts of being a kid. They’re important parts of being human.

The Conversation

Marie Helweg-Larsen has received funding from the National Institutes of Health.

ref. Denmark’s ‘hands-off’ approach to parenting could offer a blueprint for raising more resilient, self-reliant kids – https://theconversation.com/denmarks-hands-off-approach-to-parenting-could-offer-a-blueprint-for-raising-more-resilient-self-reliant-kids-281485

Why do you have to wear a helmet when you’re skateboarding?

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Christian Franck, Bjorn Borgen Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Director of the Center for Traumatic Brain Injury, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Helmets are essential gear when skateboarding. Daniel Milchev/The Image Bank via Getty Images

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.


Why do you have to wear a helmet when you’re skateboarding? – Artie, age 13, Queens, New York


Back when I was 13, I was an avid skateboarder – the kickflip was my go-to trick. And I didn’t see why I needed to strap on a helmet before practicing my ollies.

But now, doing the work I do, I get it.

My research is centered on understanding how physical forces cause brain injury and how to best protect against it. So I spend a lot of time thinking about how the brain gets hurt and how to improve helmets. This includes work focusing on protecting members of the United States military in training and active combat zones.

So why is it so important to wear a helmet when skateboarding, and also riding your bike, and really any sport or activity where your head could get hurt?

Your very own supercomputer

Inside your head sits probably your most amazing organ – your brain. It allows you to do everything you love, such as tasting ice cream, watching movies, listening to music and, of course, skateboarding.

Your brain is the world’s mightiest supercomputer. Everything it does requires billions of tiny brain cells, called neurons, working together in unison. These cells send messages to the rest of your body that regulate everything from body processes you’re not even aware of – such as your heartbeat – to moving your muscles, to helping you think and talk.

Some researchers estimate that humans have about 86 billion neurons, although scientists are still working on finding the exact number. That’s more than 10 times the number of all the people living on earth. And they’re all crammed inside a space the size of a melon, working together tirelessly, day in and day out.

Of course, your brain is not just made up of neurons. There are a lot of other cells supporting the neurons, including astrocytes and microglia, which are important helper cells to the neurons.

But as busy as your brain cells are, they are also incredibly soft and squishy. In fact, your brain has the consistency of jello. And like jello, it is very vulnerable, especially to physical forces, such as a fall or a sudden jolt.

The physical forces of a fall

Now, you might be thinking, doesn’t my skull protect my brain? And, yes, it does offer some protection. But your skull is a layer of cortical bone only about .28 inches (7 millimeters) thick, making it a useful barrier that prevents dirt and other objects from getting into your brain, but it’s too thin and too stiff to keep your brain safe in case of a fall while skateboarding.

Why is that? It helps to break down what happens when your unprotected head hits the pavement: Upon impact, your skull deforms, or changes shape, and often rotates. But your skull is not capable of fully absorbing that impact. So the remaining energy is transferred through the hard bone of your skull and absorbed by your soft, squishy brain.

Imagine squeezing and wiggling a block of jello to change its shape. This is similar to what happens to your brain: Like the block of jello, when your skull deforms, your brain can be compressed and change shape. This can cause your neurons to stretch and move in ways they aren’t designed to, causing damage.

This is why wearing a helmet is so important. If you look at your helmet, you will see that it has two parts – an outer shell that is usually hard and an inner shell liner, usually made from stiff foam. The shell is meant to protect your brain from penetrating objects. It also holds the liner, which is there to absorb most of the energy from an impact so it doesn’t reach your brain.

boy wearing helmet holding a skateboard and showing a skinned knee
Road rash is curable, but brain injuries don’t heal easily – or sometimes at all.
miljko/E+ via Getty Images

Recovering from a brain injury

If you fall off your skateboard and you’re not wearing knee and wrist pads, you might skin your knee or break your wrist. But unlike your skin and bones, your brain doesn’t tend to heal easily.

Without a helmet, much of the energy from your fall gets absorbed by your brain. Depending on the amount of energy that enters your brain, your brain cells can be injured. Even a mild traumatic brain injury, such as a concussion, can cause significant damage to the cells inside your brain. This could mean that you lose some of those brain cells or that they won’t work properly anymore.

If too many of your brain cells are damaged or die, you may lose really important brain functions, such as walking, talking or seeing clearly. The brain cells you have now are largely the same ones you had when you were born. And once you lose them, there is no way to get them back.

When you lose brain cells, the remaining cells have to work extra hard to keep your brain function intact. While modern medicine has gotten really good at repairing most of the tissues and organs in your body, the brain is still a major challenge for researchers.

This is why researchers like me spend so much time trying to find ways to protect the brain from trauma: A protected brain doesn’t need to be healed. In fact, according to one study of bicyclists, those who wear helmets are 65% to 88% less likely to get a brain injury.

So next time you step onto your skateboard, remember that you need your brain to do all the amazing things it does for you, and do what you can to protect it. Helmet on!


Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

The Conversation

Christian Franck is director of the Office of Naval Research sponsored PANTHER program through which his research group at UW-Madison receives funding.

ref. Why do you have to wear a helmet when you’re skateboarding? – https://theconversation.com/why-do-you-have-to-wear-a-helmet-when-youre-skateboarding-279956

A quiet Alaska fault is missing the fluids scientists expected – and it’s changing what we know about earthquake zones

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Yinchu Li, Ph.D. Candidate in Marine Geology, Georgia Institute of Technology

Large earthquakes have been common along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, except at the Shumagin Gap. Yinchu Li

Not all earthquake faults behave the same. Some stick and snap, causing earthquakes. Others move slowly over time.

For years, the leading explanation for slow-moving faults has been that high-pressure fluids along the fault lubricate it, allowing the slabs to slide steadily rather than building up stress until that stress is eventually released in a large, destructive earthquake.

But in a new study of the Shumagin Gap, a quiet section of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone – the area where one tectonic plate dives below another – my colleagues and I found that the fault does not contain enough fluid to explain why it slides slowly. Scientists may need to rethink this assumption about subduction zones around the world.

Pinning down why faults creep matters for how scientists build models of the world’s most powerful earthquake zones to assess long-term earthquake and tsunami hazards, from Alaska to Japan to the Pacific Northwest. Knowing how earthquakes are likely to behave is essential for helping communities decide where and how to build homes and other infrastructure so they can withstand an earthquake and tsunami.

A topographic map shows the Shumagin gap between two spots where major earthquakes occurred recently.
A topographic map of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone highlights the Shumagin Gap. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake in 2020 occurred at its inland edge, and a magnitude 8.2 earthquakes in 2021 struck nearby. Other large earthquakes are shown from 1938, 1946 and 1964.
Yinchu Li, et al., 2026

How earthquakes happen along faults

An earthquake fault is a break in Earth’s outer rock layer where two blocks of rock slide past each other. The way they slide determines what kind of shaking, if any, reaches the surface.

Some faults are “locked.” They do not budge until stress builds to a breaking point, then they release it all at once in a sudden rupture. This is what happens during most damaging earthquakes. Other faults “creep.” They glide past each other steadily, releasing stress gradually.

The biggest and most destructive earthquakes on Earth happen along subduction zones, where one tectonic plate dives beneath another. The Alaska-Aleutian margin, the Japan Trench, the subduction zone off Chile and the Pacific Northwest’s Cascadia zone are all examples. When a locked patch of a subduction fault suddenly slips, the seafloor can jolt upward and a tsunami can follow.

A quiet fault challenges a common assumption

Deep underground, fault behavior is hard to see directly, especially offshore where faults often sit beneath kilometers of seawater and sediment.

Scientists rely on measurements from GPS stations, seismometers and seafloor sensors, and then build computer models of what must be happening below. For decades, the leading explanation for creeping faults has been that high-pressure fluids along the fault reduce friction, the way a film of water causes tires to hydroplane.

A cross section of a subducting slab and an explanation of how fluid might be involved.
Scientists often describe subduction faults as either locked or creeping. Locked patches, top right, stick as stress builds, then rupture suddenly in earthquakes. Creeping patches slide more gradually. One common explanation has been that high-pressure fluids help keep them weak and slippery, lower right. But new research questions that fluid-based explanation. At the Shumagin Gap, we found too little fluid pressure for fluid alone to explain the slow, consistent slide.
Yinchu Li, et al., 2026

Testing that idea requires seeing the fluids, and that’s where our team came in.

We use marine electromagnetic imaging, a method that maps how easily underground materials conduct electricity. A ship tows an instrument close to the seafloor, sending electromagnetic signals into the rocks below, while other instruments on the seabed record the response. Different materials beneath the seafloor conduct electricity differently, and that shows up in the measurements. Because salty water conducts electricity very well, the method is especially good at mapping where fluids are and where they aren’t.

People aboard a ship lower a large instrument into the water.
Researchers deploy marine electromagnetic instruments off Alaska to image fluids and rock structure beneath the seafloor.
EMAGE team/Kerry Key

We surveyed a 75-mile (120-kilometer) stretch of seafloor across the Shumagin Gap, a section of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone that has been creeping for more than a century. The Shumagin Gap had long been considered a quiet part of the margin, even though neighboring segments have produced magnitude 8 and larger earthquakes.

To our surprise, the fault at the Shumagin Gap was not as fluid-rich as the leading explanation would predict.

Our images show that the shallow part of the fault, closest to the ocean, has little open space in the rock for fluid to occupy. And the fluid that is there is under roughly normal pressure, not the high pressure that the “slippery fluid” model predicts.

The fault surface is bumpy and rugged. The upper plate appears to be a patchwork of stronger and weaker material, and we found possible pathways where fluids may drain into the rock above the fault.

In other words, this quiet fault isn’t quiet because it’s well lubricated. Something else is keeping it stable, most likely a combination of rough fault surface, varying rock strength and, in some places, fluid.

A cross section of the Shumagin Gap
A cross-sectional illustration of the Shumagin Gap shows a rough plate interface and limited fluid.
Yinchu Li, et al., 2026

What this means for assessing earthquake risks

Our findings about this fault have consequences for assessing earthquake and tsunami hazards more broadly.

Many models lean on the idea that fluid pressure helps determine whether a subduction fault slips suddenly or creeps. If fluid isn’t the main control keeping the Shumagin Gap quiet, other quiet faults might similarly lack fluid, raising questions about how stable those faults really are.

Understanding these mechanisms matters for assessing coastal communities’ earthquake and tsunami risks. A shallow slip near a trench is what drives the most destructive tsunamis. Tsunamis from Alaska–Aleutian earthquakes have reached distant coasts before. Large earthquakes in 1946, 1957 and 1964 generated tsunamis that damaged the coasts of Hawaii and California.

As our results show, there isn’t a single, simple story explaining slow-sliding faults. More and better offshore data will help scientists more accurately assess earthquake and tsunami hazards around the world and help communities well beyond Alaska prepare.

The Conversation

This research was funded by the National Science Foundation under grants OCE-1654652 and OCE-1654619.

ref. A quiet Alaska fault is missing the fluids scientists expected – and it’s changing what we know about earthquake zones – https://theconversation.com/a-quiet-alaska-fault-is-missing-the-fluids-scientists-expected-and-its-changing-what-we-know-about-earthquake-zones-281510

Biological age tests reveal what slows or hastens aging – but they’re useful only for researchers, not consumers

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Idan Shalev, Associate Professor of Biobehavioral Health, Penn State

Imagine receiving a test result that tells you your body is biologically five years older than your chronological age. You exercise regularly, get good sleep, eat healthy meals and have a happy personal life. What have you been doing wrong? Can this test be trusted?

Dozens of companies are marketing products that promise to reveal a person’s “true” biological age – that is, how well your body is functioning – for a price ranging from around US$30 to over $1,000. These products are based on epigenetic aging clocks, which are research tools that estimate age based on a person’s DNA. These clocks are reshaping how scientists study aging and how the public thinks about it.

But while epigenetic clocks are highly effective research tools to study aging at the population level, they aren’t designed to make claims about the health of individuals.

We are biobehavioral health scientists who study how early development and environmental factors across the lifespan shape biological aging, influencing health and disease decades later. As researchers who use epigenetic clocks in our work, we have found them to be highly informative tools when studying large numbers of people. But these clocks can provide faulty results at the individual level, and they do not meet the standards required of common medical tests.

What are epigenetic clocks?

Measuring reversible chemical changes to DNA, known as epigenetic marks, can provide information about how your body is aging.

Using DNA obtained from routine blood draws, researchers can measure millions of these epigenetic marks in an individual. Running statistical algorithms on this information can produce a single value that represents that person’s epigenetic age, analogous to chronological age.

Epigenetic clocks work because the chemical marks on DNA can shift over time and are influenced by lifestyle, stress and the environment. These changes capture aspects of aging that chronological age alone may not reflect.

In this way, epigenetic clocks help scientists identify the experiences, exposures and behaviors that may accelerate or slow biological aging.

Your experiences and environment change your DNA.

Not for individual health decisions

Why can’t epigenetic clocks provide reliable results about biological age for individual people?

First, there are dozens of different types of epigenetic clocks, each designed for a specific purpose. Some are used to predict a person’s age, while others are used to predict how fast someone is aging or how many years until they die. These different clocks do not always agree with one another, even when used on the same person.

Second, epigenetic changes are dynamic, making age predictions sensitive to short-term fluctuations in diet, environmental exposures, illness, time of day and other transient factors. As a result, estimated age could vary substantially depending on when someone is tested.

Third, constructing epigenetic clocks is technically challenging, and there is no established gold-standard method for generating clocks across laboratories. For example, testing epigenetic age in saliva versus blood samples can yield substantially different results for the same person. The technologies used to measure epigenetic marks have also evolved over time and will likely continue to improve. As these methods change, the original algorithms designed for specific measurement platforms may not perform the same way.

Fourth, scientists do not universally agree on what aging means, in part because it is a very complex process. Reducing that complexity to a single number, such as an epigenetic age, can be misleading.

Finally, epigenetic clocks are influenced by a person’s history of trauma, discrimination and early life adversity. This makes their use at the individual level potentially problematic. On average, marginalized communities tend to show signs of accelerated aging when assessed with epigenetic clocks. If insurance companies began using epigenetic age estimates to set premiums, many people could face higher costs for biological differences shaped by circumstances beyond their control, potentially deepening existing health disparities.

Crowd of people milling around a downtown area
Epigenetic aging clocks are best used to study populations, not individual people.
Jakub Zerdzicki/iStock via Getty Images

Studying how aging unfolds over time

While epigenetic clocks are not appropriate tools for individual health decisions, this does not mean they lack value.

Researchers have used epigenetic clocks to discover lifestyle habits that can, on average, slow down aging. Some examples include reducing daily calorie intake, exercising regularly, maintaining a healthy diet, getting enough sleep and avoiding smoking.

Epigenetic clocks can also help test new drug therapies aimed at slowing down specific aging processes. For example, researchers have shown that rapamycin, a drug connected to various aging processes, can reduce the epigenetic age of human skin cells. There is also some evidence that a treatment designed to regenerate the thymus may slow or even reverse epigenetic aging after one year of treatment. However, researchers have seen these effects only when looking at groups rather than individuals.

Epigenetic clocks are helping scientists advance scientific research on the aging processes, but they aren’t medical tests to measure individual health. In the future, epigenetic measurements may play a useful role in guiding personal health decisions. But for now, epigenetic clocks sold as biological age tests are best used and refined by researchers who are studying populations rather than individual people.

The Conversation

Idan Shalev receives funding from The National Institutes of Health.

Abner Apsley receives funding from the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation.

ref. Biological age tests reveal what slows or hastens aging – but they’re useful only for researchers, not consumers – https://theconversation.com/biological-age-tests-reveal-what-slows-or-hastens-aging-but-theyre-useful-only-for-researchers-not-consumers-275974

Vie et mort du Front de libération nationale corse

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Thierry Dominici, Maître de conférence en science politique, Université de Bordeaux

À l’occasion de l’anniversaire de la création du FLNC il y a 50 ans, retour sur la trajectoire singulière d’un mouvement clandestin qui a profondément marqué la vie politique corse. Entre revendication anticoloniale, structuration armée et recompositions internes, son histoire éclaire les transformations contemporaines du nationalisme insulaire.


En Corse, la première action violente contre l’État date de février 1973. Elle est revendiquée par le Front Paysan Corse de Libération (FPCL). Composé d’agriculteurs, de commerçants et d’étudiants, ses credo sont la reconnaissance de la Nation et de la langue Corse, l’exclusion des colons, la corsisation des emplois, et le rapatriement des Corses de l’extérieur.

Puis, dès l’année 1974, apparait une seconde organisation clandestine : la Ghjustizia Paolina (GP), constituée de jeunes militants pour la plupart étudiants. Elle revendique des attentats d’envergures contre des cibles définies comme colonialistes.

Le 24 avril 1974, le FPCL annonce sa fusion avec la GP et en mai 1974, ils diffusent un manifeste qui officialise un passage à la lutte de libération nationale et donc à la création d’un Front de libération de type mouvement de décolonisation. C’est dans ce contexte, suite à une vague de 22 attentats, durant la nuit de 05 mai 1976, qu’apparait le FLNC.

Une inscription parmi les luttes anticoloniales

Dans sa première conférence de presse en juillet 1976, le FLNC menace directement l’État au nom du peuple corse et rappelle que ses membres « n’ont pas d’attachement ni avec l’extrême droite ni avec les socialistes et autres révolutionnaires de gauche : ses membres sont, avant toute chose, nationalistes corses ». Ainsi, le FLNC expose un projet d’indépendance dont le point nodal est le choix des Corses à déterminer par la voie référendaire la souveraineté de l’île. Très critique envers les actions des autonomistes, il rappelle aussi que seule une lutte armée contre l’État dit colonial permettrait « de sauvegarder ce qui reste du peuple corse ». Le FLNC propose également l’extension du domaine de la revendication anticoloniale à la lutte de libération nationale :

« Corses, reprenons la voie de nos ancêtres, le fusil à la main, pour libérer notre patrie. Nous n’avons plus le choix ».

S’inspirant des situations des autres luttes de décolonisation, il précise que seule « cette période de désaliénation permettra [au] peuple de choisir démocratiquement son destin avec ou sans la France ».

Sur le plan de la production de la violence contre l’État, à l’inverse de ses homologues européens (ETA ou IRA), le FLNC propose alors une violence ciblée et mesurée, pour ne pas dire contrôlée. Pour les insulaires ses actions sont perçues comme légitimes tant qu’elles restent au service de la défense et de la sauvegarde des intérêts des Corses.

Le manifeste de 1977 du FLNC « La liberté ou la mort » propose un programme d’actions « de légitime défense » du peuple corse contre un État jugé « comme colonial », car « d’occupation ». Il s’articule autour de cinq points :

  • La destruction de tous les instruments du colonialisme français : armée, administrations, etc.

  • L’instauration d’un pouvoir populaire démocratique, expression de tous les patriotes corses.

  • La confiscation des grandes propriétés coloniales et des trusts touristiques.

  • La réalisation d’un pouvoir agraire pour assurer les aspirations des paysans, des ouvriers, des intellectuels et débarrasser le pays de toutes les formes d’exploitation.

  • Le droit à l’autodétermination après une période transitoire de trois ans, durant laquelle l’administration se fera à égalité entre forces nationalistes et forces d’occupation.

Phénomène classique des bras armés européens, le FLNC a en réalité un caractère plus pragmatique que révolutionnaire. Des stratégies personnelles traversent le mouvement, en faisant une organisation floue aux dérives parfois affairistes. Mais le FLNC cherche à soigner son image et à occuper l’espace public. Au-delà d’une présence dans chaque secteur de l’île, dès 1980, il crée une vitrine publique, la CCN (A Cunsulta di i Cumitati Nazionalisti : littéralement Rassemblement ou Assemblée des comités nationalistes), qui endosse le rôle symbolique de porte-parole de la lutte de libération nationale du peuple corse. Son discours tourné sur l’indépendance (mais aussi la révolution et le marxisme) parle à une jeunesse qui ne se retrouve pas dans le projet d’autonomie proposé par les autonomistes depuis les années 1960 (des compétences et pouvoirs élargis pour la Corse, tout en restant au sein de l’État français qui conserve le régalien).

L’interdiction de l’indépendantisme corse

Le FLNC est néanmoins dissout par les pouvoirs publics le 5 janvier 1983. À partir de cette date, le front et ses officines sont assimilés à des organisations illégales et terroristes.

Le 28 septembre 1983, la CCN est également dissoute par le gouvernement, qui empêche ainsi l’indépendantisme corse d’exister légalement.

Néanmoins, ces dissolutions entraînent auprès de l’opinion locale un soutien populaire qui pousse le FLNC à s’engager sur la voie de la légalité, le 3 octobre 1983, en créant un parti politique, le Mouvement Corse pour l’Autodétermination (MCA) qui entend être plus proche de la société civile. Avant le MCA, seuls les autonomistes proposaient une opposition politique (par exemple en participant aux élections locales). Avec le MCA comme vitrine politique, le FLNC peut désormais prétendre concurrencer dans l’espace public les partis politiques autonomistes. Il assoit ainsi sur le plan idéologique et doctrinal un discours reliant le combat anticolonial à l’action institutionnelle. Mais en janvier 1986, en raison d’une trop grande proximité idéologique avec l’officine clandestine, le MCA se voit interdit à son tour.

Les guerres fratricides

Paradoxalement, cette période se traduit par une rupture de l’unicité de la lutte armée et fragmentera, en 1989-91, le FLNC en trois nébuleuses distinctes mais très proches sur le plan idéologique : le Canal Historique, le Canal Habituel et Resistenza.

Ces FLNC(s) se plongent alors à corps perdu dans une guerre fratricide de légitimité, sorte d’indépendantisme anthropophage, qui se soldera par une vingtaine de morts et une perte de sens idéologique pour les militants de base. En effet, de 1989 à 1997, ces trois nébuleuses produisent des actions violentes, mais celle-ci représentent des surmarquages territoriaux plus qu’une réelle volonté politique. Subséquemment, elles poussent les activistes de l’époque à suivre des voies contradictoires avec l’idéologie de base du FLNC originel.

En 1997, le Canal Habituel s’autodissout, Reisistenza se met en sommeil et le Canal Historique, tout en étant considérablement affaibli, sort vainqueur de cette quête pour la légitimité de la lutte de libération nationale. Néanmoins, on observe également l’apparition de nouvelles nébuleuses dissidentes agissant comme un moyen de pression au Canal Historique au sein ou à l’extérieur de celui-ci. Certaines ont des origines troubles à l’image du Sans Sigle (commando à l’origine de l’assassinat du Préfet Claude Erignac en février 1998).

Par la suite, de 1997 à 2014 la lutte de libération nationale semble n’être plus du tout au service de la cause indépendantiste. La guerre fratricide pour la quête de la légitimité de la lutte armée fait que la cloison entre violence politique et organisation criminelle est devenue très mince. Les deux phénomènes semblent s’imbriquer l’un dans l’autre, au point que cette évolution de la violence conduira inexorablement le FLNC à se démilitariser en juin 2014.

Aujourd’hui, l’imaginaire collectif est toujours imprégné d’une vision de la Corse comme lieu de violence endémique. Pourtant, la démilitarisation du FLNC a permis un rapprochement des forces partisanes autonomistes et indépendantistes. En décembre 2015, cela a donné lieu pour la première fois dans l’histoire politique de l’île à la victoire à l’élection régionale d’une alliance entre autonomistes et indépendantistes, ouvrant sur une solution politique et une probable évolution du statut de l’île. Plusieurs cadres du FLNC sont désormais des membres importants de la société civile sur le plan économique, social ou politique (élus, collectifs et association d’anciens prisonniers).

Néanmoins, l’esprit du FLNC prédémilitarisation plane encore en partie sur la société insulaire : des néo-groupuscules se revendiquent héritiers de la structure et quelques jeunes activistes rêvent d’un retour de la lutte armée. Objectif ? Obtenir l’indépendance de l’île et, surtout, bénéficier d’un capital guerrier.

The Conversation

Thierry Dominici ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Vie et mort du Front de libération nationale corse – https://theconversation.com/vie-et-mort-du-front-de-liberation-nationale-corse-281546

Après le départ des Émirats arabes unis, assiste-t-on à la fin de l’Opep ? Et faudra-t-il la regretter ?

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Patrice Geoffron, Professeur d’Economie, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL

En annonçant qu’ils quittaient l’Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole, Opep, les Émirats arabes unis ont-ils porté le coup de grâce à cette structure née en septembre 1960 ? Ou n’ont-ils fait qu’entériner un changement de cadre géopolitique, rendant ce cartel moins efficient que par le passé ? Cette décision intervient dans un contexte où le marché pétrolier est ébranlé par les attaques des États-Unis et d’Israël sur l’Iran, et où la circulation par le détroit d’Ormuz reste incertaine…


Le 28 avril 2026, les Émirats arabes unis (EAU) ont annoncé leur retrait de l’Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole (Opep) avec effet dès le 1er mai. Ce départ est le plus lourd de conséquences depuis la création du cartel en 1960. Cette décision invite aussi à creuser une problématique qui monte en intensité depuis une décennie : l’Opep est-elle encore viable comme instrument de régulation collective du marché pétrolier mondial ?

Membres de l’Opep depuis 1967, les Émirats ont longtemps compté parmi les piliers de l’organisation. En annonçant leur retrait, les autorités émiriennes ont invoqué une vision de long terme et l’évolution de leur profil énergétique.

Le résultat d’années de friction

Derrière cette justification se lit cependant une frustration ancienne, nourrie par des années de frictions sur la marge de manœuvre laissée à Abou Dhabi dans sa politique pétrolière. Cette tension tient au décalage entre les capacités de production des EAU et les contraintes imposées par le cartel. Les Émirats ont massivement investi dans l’amont afin de porter leur capacité de production de 4 à 5 millions de barils par jour d’ici à 2027. Or, l’Opep a continué à privilégier les coupes, limitant la capacité du pays à valoriser pleinement ces investissements. Du point de vue émirien, la sortie de l’Opep vise donc à réaligne donc les intérêts économiques nationaux en redonnant au pays la liberté de mobiliser pleinement ses capacités.

La guerre au Moyen-Orient, déclenchée au début de 2026, a servi de détonateur à une rupture que la logique économique préparait depuis longtemps. Les EAU nourrissaient déjà un ressentiment envers leurs partenaires régionaux, jugés trop passifs au moment où Abou Dhabi supportait l’essentiel du choc provoqué par les attaques iraniennes et pro-iraniennes, dans le prolongement d’épisodes intervenus dès 2022. Cette séquence a mis en lumière l’écart entre les discours de solidarité et la faiblesse du soutien apporté par les États arabes et du Golfe.

Les fondements du cartel

Pour mesurer la portée du départ des EAU, il faut revenir aux fondements économiques du cartel. L’Opep vise à maximiser la rente collective en régulant l’offre mondiale, afin de maintenir les prix à un niveau supérieur à celui qui résulterait d’une concurrence non coordonnée. Deux conditions sont nécessaires à cet objectif :

  • des capacités de production excédentaires mobilisables, les spare capacities,

  • et l’acceptation, par les membres, de sacrifices de court terme au profit de recettes plus prévisibles à moyen terme.




À lire aussi :
Après la COP28, fin de partie pour les énergies fossiles ?


Sur le plan technique, les Émirats faisaient partie, avec l’Arabie saoudite, des très rares membres disposant de capacités excédentaires substantielles. Leur départ affaiblit donc mécaniquement la crédibilité opérationnelle de l’Opep. Libéré de la contrainte des quotas, Abou Dhabi pourra désormais se comporter comme n’importe quel producteur hors Opep, en maximisant son extraction. Cette production supplémentaire, potentiellement de 500 000 à 800 000 barils par jour à moyen terme, pourrait peser sur les prix et contraindre les membres restants à des arbitrages encore plus délicats entre discipline collective et intérêts nationaux.

Un atout nommé oléoduc de Habshan-Fujairah

Le contexte géopolitique rend cette défection plus problématique encore. Le conflit déclenché fin février 2026 entre Israël, les États-Unis et l’Iran a partiellement fermé le détroit d’Ormuz, par lequel transitaient habituellement près de 20 % des flux mondiaux de pétrole (et par ailleurs de gaz naturel liquéfié). Cela a mécaniquement accru la valeur stratégique des approvisionnements capables de contourner ce goulot d’étranglement.

Dans ce contexte, les Émirats disposent d’un atout important avec l’oléoduc Habshan-Fujairah, qui permet d’exporter une partie substantielle de leur brut hors Ormuz via le port de Fujairah, sur le golfe d’Oman. La demande en brut exportable sans astreinte à un passage via le détroit s’en trouve renforcée, ce qui rend d’autant plus attractif, pour Abou Dhabi, le choix d’une production libérée des astreintes de l’Opep. Cet avantage pourrait d’ailleurs perdurer au-delà du conflit, si une prime de risque durable continuait de peser sur le golfe Persique.

La fin d’une emprise de l’Opep

Il serait toutefois inexact de voir dans le retrait des EAU l’événement fondateur d’une crise entièrement nouvelle. La fragilisation de l’Opep est un processus ancien, perceptible depuis le contre-choc pétrolier du milieu des années 1980 et accéléré dans les années 2010 par la révolution du pétrole de schiste américain.

Au fil de la dernière décennie, les États-Unis sont devenus le premier producteur mondial de pétrole, devant l’Arabie saoudite et la Russie, portant leur production à plus de 13 millions de barils par jour en 2025. Cette évolution a réduit la capacité de l’Opep à contrôler les prix, car toute baisse de production du cartel peut être partiellement compensée par une hausse de l’offre américaine, non soumise à quotas. C’est précisément pourquoi l’organisation a dû former en 2016, avec la Russie et neuf autres pays, une alliance élargie, qualifiée d’Opep+, actant qu’elle ne disposait plus d’une emprise suffisante sur le marché, à elle seule.

La série des défections intervenues depuis confirme toutefois une érosion : Qatar en 2019, Équateur en 2020, puis Angola en 2024. À chaque départ, l’organisation a conservé sa structure formelle, mais sa capacité effective de coordination s’est réduite. En outre, sur les vingt-deux membres de l’Opep+, trois (l’Iran, le Venezuela et la Libye) étaient déjà exemptés de quotas en raison de leurs contraintes géopolitiques, ce qui limitait encore la portée des règles communes.

La variable Trump et la recomposition des alliances

À ces facteurs économiques et structurels s’ajoute une pression politique américaine renouvelée. Donald Trump, revenu à la Maison-Blanche en janvier 2025, a activement cherché à fragiliser l’Opep par une stratégie combinant rhétorique anti-cartel et conditionnalité sécuritaire. La logique affichée par Trump dès son retour était simple : puisque les États-Unis assurent le parapluie militaire des monarchies du Golfe, celles-ci devraient en retour adopter une politique pétrolière favorable aux consommateurs américains, c’est-à-dire des prix bas.

Cette équation géopolitique résonne particulièrement aux Émirats. Le retrait de l’Opep peut ainsi être lu comme un signal adressé à Washington : Abou Dhabi choisit le camp de ses partenaires stratégiques plutôt que la solidarité du cartel sous leadership saoudien. Ce départ peut, de ce point de vue, être interprété comme une victoire diplomatique pour l’administration Trump dans sa guerre d’intimidation contre l’Opep. Donald Trump n’a d’ailleurs pas manqué de saluer cette décision sur Truth Social.

Cette recomposition reflète aussi la profondeur des frictions entre Mohammed ben Zayed, (président des Émirats arabes unis et émir d’Abou Dhabi) et Mohammed ben Salmane (prince héritier et premier ministre d’Arabie saoudite). Les désaccords se sont accumulés depuis 2019 sur la guerre au Yémen, la normalisation avec Israël, les stratégies de diversification économique et le rapport à Téhéran.

Que reste-t-il de l’Opep ?

Après le départ des EAU, l’Opep ne compte plus que onze membres. Son poids dans la production mondiale a fortement décliné, passant de 55 % dans les années 1970 à environ 30 % aujourd’hui. Même si l’Opep+ constitue un cénacle élargi et conserve une cohésion formelle, la crédibilité de ses engagements dépend désormais plus encore de la capacité et de la volonté de l’Arabie saoudite à assumer seule le rôle de swing producer. Ce qui constitue une charge considérable pour un pays dont les besoins budgétaires ont été relevés à mesure que s’affirmaient les ambitions de Vision 2030 et qui ne sortira pas indemne du choc du conflit en cours.

Si d’autres membres suivaient l’exemple des Émirats, la structure de l’Opep pourrait s’affaiblir au point de perdre une grande partie de sa pertinence opérationnelle. Le regard se tourne notamment vers le Koweït et l’Irak, qui pourraient à leur tour s’interroger sur les bénéfices de leur participation.

Il serait néanmoins prématuré d’annoncer la disparition du cartel. L’Opep a montré, à plusieurs reprises, une capacité de résilience que les observateurs ont souvent sous-estimée. Chaque grande crise a jusqu’ici débouché sur une adaptation plutôt que sur une dissolution. Pour ses membres africains (Nigeria, Libye, Gabon, Congo, Guinée équatoriale) sa valeur n’est d’ailleurs pas seulement économique. L’organisation leur offre aussi une visibilité internationale, un accès partagé aux données de marché et une plate-forme de coordination diplomatique qu’aucun autre forum ne pourrait aisément remplacer.

Vers un marché post-cartel ?

Le véritable enjeu dépasse la seule survie institutionnelle de l’Opep. Il concerne la gouvernance du marché pétrolier dans un monde plus fracturé, plus conflictuel et placé sous la pression de la transition énergétique. Dans un marché post-cartel, les prix seraient davantage déterminés par les fondamentaux de l’offre et de la demande, mais aussi par les décisions souveraines de grands producteurs non coordonnés comme les États-Unis, le Canada ou le Brésil, rejoints par les Émirats arabes unis.

Lumni, 2025.

Cela ouvrirait sur un marché plus volatil, marqué par des cycles d’investissement plus heurtés et une vulnérabilité accrue aux chocs. Cette volatilité aurait des effets asymétriques. À court terme, elle pourrait être favorable à certains producteurs hors cartel et à certains consommateurs industriels, tout en déstabilisant les économies les plus dépendantes des revenus pétroliers, c’est-à-dire le cœur résiduel de l’Opep.

Quel avenir à l’ère de la décarbonation ?

Dans un monde qui vise la neutralité carbone à l’horizon 2050, chaque producteur est incité à valoriser ses réserves avant qu’elles ne soient déclassées par la montée des renouvelables et de l’électromobilité. Les Émirats inscrivent aussi leur retrait dans cette logique : produire davantage aujourd’hui, tout en accélérant les investissements dans le solaire, le nucléaire et l’hydrogène décarboné. Cette course à la valorisation des actifs fossiles, sorte de paradoxe vert, est structurellement peu compatible avec une logique de restriction collective de la production.

Si l’Opep n’est pas morte le 28 avril 2026, le retrait des Émirats arabes unis marque une inflexion décisive dans l’histoire d’une organisation fondée à Bagdad en 1960 pour permettre aux pays du Sud de reprendre le contrôle de leurs ressources. Soumise aux pressions géopolitiques américaines, minée par les divergences d’intérêts entre ses membres et de moins en moins capable de discipliner les producteurs les plus ambitieux, elle entre dans une phase de vulnérabilité accrue.

L’institution d’un monde ancien ?

Dans un monde où chaque grand producteur est tenté de maximiser sa rente pétrolière avant que la transition énergétique n’en réduise la valeur, l’idée même d’une discipline collective paraît de plus en plus fragile. Cette fragilité est d’autant plus visible que le désordre stratégique entretenu par Donald Trump, par ses guerres commerciales, ses pressions sur ses partenaires et son imprévisibilité, accélère la recomposition du système international au lieu de le stabiliser.

Or, cette recomposition ne profite pas seulement aux producteurs désireux de s’affranchir des cadres collectifs : elle favorise aussi la Chine, vers laquelle de nombreux États se tournent davantage à mesure qu’ils recherchent des débouchés, des partenaires et des règles du jeu plus prévisibles, des sources énergétiques moins hystérisées que les hydrocarbures, face à l’instabilité américaine.

Dans ce nouvel environnement, l’Opep n’apparaît plus comme l’instrument central d’un Sud pétrolier organisé, mais comme une structure défensive, contestée de l’intérieur et débordée par une redistribution plus large des rapports de force économiques et géopolitiques. Elle n’est donc pas encore morte, mais elle risque de devenir, plus vite que prévu, l’institution d’un monde ancien.

The Conversation

Patrice Geoffron est membre fondateur de l’Alliance pour la Décarbonation de la Route. Il siège dans différents conseils scientifiques: CEA, CRE, Engie.

ref. Après le départ des Émirats arabes unis, assiste-t-on à la fin de l’Opep ? Et faudra-t-il la regretter ? – https://theconversation.com/apres-le-depart-des-emirats-arabes-unis-assiste-t-on-a-la-fin-de-lopep-et-faudra-t-il-la-regretter-282032

Soft power et Africa Corps : la nouvelle stratégie russe en Afrique dans un contexte multipolaire

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Saliou Dieng, chercheur, Université Numérique Cheikh Hamidou Kane

Après une longue période de latence consécutive à l’effondrement du bloc soviétique, la Fédération de Russie orchestre désormais un redéploiement stratégique d’envergure sur le continent africain.

Ce mouvement, loin d’être fortuit, a été largement accéléré par l’isolement croissant de Moscou sur la scène internationale et sa rupture consommée avec les puissances occidentales depuis le déclenchement du conflit ukrainien.

Mes recherches doctorales menées ces dernières années révèlent que Moscou ne s’appuie plus uniquement sur ses leviers militaires traditionnels, mais déploie une stratégie hybride. La Russie opère un retour stratégique majeur en Afrique pour briser son isolement international. Elle déploie une stratégie hybride associant un hard power institutionnalisé (Africa Corps) à un soft power structuré (médias, éducation) afin de s’imposer comme un partenaire indispensable face à l’Occident dans un monde multipolaire.

Le regain d’intérêt de la Russie pour l’Afrique, déjà entamé ces dernières années, s’inscrit dans une volonté de briser son isolement diplomatique depuis le conflit en Ukraine du 24 février 2022 en mobilisant une rhétorique anticoloniale pour bâtir un bloc géopolitique alternatif. L’Afrique apparaît ainsi comme un espace stratégique à plusieurs titres.

En premier lieu, le continent africain représente pour Moscou un levier diplomatique crucial au sein des instances multilatérales, servant de réservoir de voix pour contrer son isolement, notamment lors des votes à l’Assemblée générale de l’Organisation des Nations unies (ONU).

Bien que cette percée repose initialement sur des instruments de hard power matérialisés par une coopération militaire dense et le déploiement de l’Africa Corps, cette approche sécuritaire se heurte aujourd’hui à des impasses majeures : l’instabilité du modèle de « prestataire de sécurité », l’absence de volet économique solide et la fragilité de l’ancrage institutionnel.

La Russie déploie une stratégie de soft power multidimensionnelle, inspirée par la théorie du politologue américain Joseph Nye (il a défini ce concept comme la capacité d’attraction et de persuasion d’un État sans recours à la force). La Russie déploie une offensive d’influence en Afrique, caractérisée par une forte hausse des effectifs étudiants (35 000 en 2025) et une massification des bourses d’État. Parallèlement, le Kremlin étend son réseau culturel via l’ouverture de “Maisons russes”, transformant les étudiants en relais d’influence dans leurs pays d’origine.

Cette offensive de charme s’appuie également sur un appareil médiatique et culturel performant. Des médias internationaux tels que la chaîne de télévision RT et le l’agence de presse Sputnik occupent désormais une place centrale dans la diffusion d’une narration alternative de l’actualité mondiale. En remettant systématiquement en cause les discours occidentaux, ces plateformes influencent des débats publics. Elles parviennent à toucher un public jeune et connecté via les réseaux sociaux, très réceptif à cette rhétorique de rupture.

La Russie consolide son influence en Afrique grâce à une communication officielle soignée et des valeurs de respect mutuel. Cette diplomatie de rupture transforme ses interventions sécuritaires initiales en un partenariat multidimensionnel capable de concurrencer les puissances historiques.

Le recrutement d’au moins 1 417 Africains pour le front ukrainien, dénoncé comme un trafic d’êtres humains, entache durablement l’image de la Russie en Afrique. Cette instrumentalisation de la jeunesse précaire révèle une faille majeure de son soft power. Elle met en évidence un décalage brutal entre sa rhétorique souverainiste et la réalité d’une exploitation militaire dénoncée par des pays comme le Kenya




Read more:
Guerre en Ukraine : comment la Russie recrute et exploite des migrants africains


Des espaces d’influence différenciés

Le soft power de la Russie en Afrique est ciblé et inégalement réparti, concentré dans des pays où se combinent instabilité politique, besoins sécuritaires et ouverture à de nouveaux partenaires. Ce déploiement du soft power russe se concentre ainsi sur des zones stratégiques comme le Sahel, qui est un laboratoire d’influence. Des pays comme le Mali, le Burkina Faso et le Niger constituent des terrains privilégiés en raison :

• de leur rupture avec les partenaires occidentaux,

• de leurs besoins sécuritaires,

• de la mobilisation des opinions publiques en faveur de la Russie.

La stratégie russe au sein de l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES, composée du Burkina Faso, du Mali et du Niger) fusionne aide sécuritaire et offensive idéologique autour du concept de « seconde décolonisation ». Au Burkina Faso, cet ancrage s’est concrétisé par des actes symboliques forts, tels que la réouverture de l’ambassade russe après 31 ans de fermeture et le don de 25 000 tonnes de blé, renforçant l’image d’un partenaire solidaire et respectueux de la souveraineté.

Ce modèle démontre que le soft power de Moscou est intrinsèquement hybride : il tire sa crédibilité de l’efficacité perçue du hard power (Africa Corps) pour transformer le Sahel en un laboratoire d’influence mondiale, prouvant qu’une alternative opérationnelle à l’Occident est possible

Adhésion, pragmatisme et méfiance

La perception de la Russie en Afrique est loin d’être homogène. Dans ce contexte, particulièrement au Sahel, la Russie est perçue comme une puissance anti-hégémonique capable de rompre avec les vieux schémas coloniaux. Elle y est accueillie comme un partenaire respectueux de la souveraineté nationale, proposant une approche de non-ingérence qui séduit les opinions publiques.

L’efficacité sécuritaire de la Russie au Sahel reste très contestée malgré sa réactivité apparente. Si Moscou propose des solutions militaires directes, le bilan sur le terrain est sombre : le 25 avril 2026, le Mali a ainsi subi des attaques djihadistes d’une ampleur et d’une coordination inédite contre la junte et l’Africa Corps, entraînant la mort du ministre de la Défense.

Le Sahel demeure l’épicentre du terrorisme mondial, concentrant plus de 51 % des décès liés à l’extrémisme 2024. Face à ce constat, les États africains adoptent une multipolarité pragmatique en diversifiant leurs alliés pour éviter toute dépendance exclusive.

La Russie est ainsi utilisée comme un levier tactique complémentaire à d’autres puissances. La Chine, elle assure le volet économique via des investissements massifs dans les infrastructures, là où la Russie se limite au hard power.

Malgré son attractivité, l’opacité du modèle russe inquiète. La question centrale reste la capacité du Kremlin à s’inscrire dans un partenariat de développement pérenne plutôt que de se limiter à une offre de sécurité conjoncturelle.

Potentialités et contraintes

La stratégie de la Russie en Afrique repose sur une hybridation entre sécurité et soft power visant à rompre son isolement diplomatique tout en soutenant des régimes alliés. En mobilisant une rhétorique souverainiste et anti-occidentale via les réseaux sociaux et des médias comme RT ou Sputnik, Moscou parvient à capter une partie de l’opinion publique. Cette offensive de charme, bien qu’efficace à court terme pour provoquer une rupture avec l’Occident, demeure une arme tactique plus qu’un modèle de coopération profond.

La stratégie russe en Afrique reste précaire en raison de sa dépendance aux régimes militaires et aux contextes d’instabilité. Face à la domination économique de la Chine et au poids historique de l’Europe, Moscou s’impose comme un simple « acteur de crise ». Son soft power, bien qu’efficace pour orchestrer une rupture avec l’Occident, manque de projets de développement concrets.

Cette présence demeure donc une influence de circonstance, vulnérable à tout changement de leadership local et dépourvue d’un enracinement institutionnel capable de rivaliser avec les autres grandes puissances sur le long terme.

Si le binôme hard/soft power permet à Moscou de s’imposer comme une alternative réactive aux modèles occidentaux, son ancrage reste fragile. Face à la prédominance économique chinoise, la pérennité de la présence russe dépendra de sa capacité à muer d’un simple prestataire sécuritaire en un acteur du développement structure.

The Conversation

Saliou Dieng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Soft power et Africa Corps : la nouvelle stratégie russe en Afrique dans un contexte multipolaire – https://theconversation.com/soft-power-et-africa-corps-la-nouvelle-strategie-russe-en-afrique-dans-un-contexte-multipolaire-281051