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May 12, 2026

École à trois vitesses : les garçons issus de milieux défavorisés en paient le prix fort

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Simon Bilodeau-Carrier, Étudiant au doctorat en sciences de l’éducation, Université de Montréal

Le système scolaire québécois nourrit les inégalités. Avec ses trois filières distinctes, il répartit les élèves, notamment en fonction de leur réalité socioéconomique. Ce sont les garçons des milieux défavorisés qui en paient le prix le plus fort.

Dans son récent livre blanc « Ceux qu’on échappe », Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois détaille les effets de ce système selon plusieurs angles, soit le retard scolaire, le décrochage, la maîtrise du français et l’accès aux études supérieures.

Pour pallier ces problèmes, le député met de l’avant une réforme ambitieuse, visant à rassembler toutes les filières de l’école. Est-ce que cette réforme peut réellement réduire à la fois les inégalités scolaires et atténuer les tensions sociales émergentes ?

Je suis doctorant en sociologie de l’éducation, spécialisé dans l’étude des parcours scolaires et des inégalités qui les traversent. À ce titre, les débats entourant la ségrégation scolaire au Québec et les solutions proposées pour y remédier s’inscrivent directement dans mon champ d’expertise.

La ségrégation scolaire au Québec

Les écoles secondaires québécoises sont divisées en différentes filières. On les rassemble souvent en trois catégories, qui sont parfois appelées les « trois vitesses » du système : 1) les programmes « réguliers » des écoles publiques, 2) les programmes pédagogiques particuliers des écoles publiques (ex. sports-études) et 3) tous les programmes dispensés dans les écoles privées.

Seule la première catégorie accueille tous les types d’élèves, alors que les deux autres mobilisent des processus de sélection. En outre, plusieurs programmes particuliers et l’ensemble des écoles privées exigent que les parents paient certains frais pour que leurs enfants puissent s’inscrire. C’est ce qu’on appelle un quasi-marché scolaire.

En théorie, tous les élèves peuvent s’inscrire dans toutes les filières, alors qu’en pratique, les opportunités réelles varient fortement. Par exemple, les critères de sélection comme les résultats scolaires et les examens d’entrée excluent un bon nombre d’élèves, y compris plusieurs vivant des situations de handicap. D’autre part, certains programmes de sports-études demandent aux parents de payer du matériel supplémentaire, ce qui exclut d’emblée plusieurs élèves provenant de familles moins bien nanties.

Ainsi, les diverses filières d’enseignement sélectives sont souvent inaccessibles pour les élèves provenant de milieux socioéconomiques défavorisés. Il s’agit donc d’un système inéquitable et ségrégatif, notamment sur le plan socioéconomique.

En outre, bien que la reproduction des inégalités sociales dépende également de facteurs externes au système scolaire, comme le quartier ou le niveau d’éducation des parents, ce système contribue à les prolonger à long terme, dans la mesure où les élèves issus des programmes réguliers du secondaire s’inscrivent moins souvent au cégep et à l’université que les autres

Le livre blanc

L’ouvrage de Nadeau-Dubois explore l’effet de l’exclusion des filières sélectives sur les garçons provenant de milieux socioéconomiques défavorisés. L’auteur explique s’y intéresser afin d’éviter que ces frustrations n’alimentent la polarisation, la haine et l’exclusion envers les femmes.

En s’appuyant sur de nombreuses recherches et statistiques, le député solidaire met en lumière les inégalités vécues par les garçons de milieux plus modestes dans le programme « général » du système public. En moyenne, selon les données consultées, les garçons sont moins performants à l’école que les filles.

Toutefois, les écarts observés entre les genres, par exemple dans les résultats scolaires ou par rapport à la littératie, sont systématiquement plus grands dans les milieux moins sélectifs. La conclusion est donc que la ségrégation scolaire est particulièrement nocive pour la réussite scolaire des garçons.

Devant ce constat, l’auteur met de l’avant la solution du mouvement citoyen École ensemble, voulant que le système scolaire soit unifié en une seule voie. L’idée est d’offrir à l’ensemble des élèves des programmes particuliers en lien avec leurs intérêts, sans frais et sans sélection. On abolirait ainsi le cheminement « régulier » et les écoles privées subventionnées telles qu’elles existent aujourd’hui. L’initiative prévoit que les établissements privés qui souhaiteraient maintenir leur financement gouvernemental devraient se joindre au réseau commun et donc cesser de faire de la sélection d’élèves.

Pour la suite de cet article, j’explorerai la portée de la solution proposée sous deux angles. Je détaillerai d’abord son effet sur les inégalités dans les parcours scolaires et ensuite sur les préjugés et la polarisation entre les genres.

Une solution aux opportunités d’études inégalitaires

Le chercheur en administration publique Étienne-Alexandre Beauregard critique l’approche proposée par Nadeau-Dubois. Selon lui, retirer le financement aux écoles privées refusant de se joindre au réseau réduirait la liberté de choix des élèves, tant en ce qui concerne les programmes que les établissements.

À l’opposé, certains soutiennent que la perte d’accessibilité dans quelques écoles privées serait largement compensée par un accès accru pour la majorité des élèves québécois, grâce à un réseau scolaire plus équitable.

Au-delà de ce débat de fond, comme le décrit la chercheuse en sociologie de l’éducation Véronique Grenier, la réforme proposée pourrait être contournée. Par exemple, si une école privée intègre le réseau public tout en conservant des infrastructures et des équipements supérieurs, des parents mieux nantis pourraient choisir de déménager à proximité afin d’y inscrire leurs enfants.

Ainsi, la suppression des mécanismes officiels de sélection ne constitue pas une solution complète. Des mécanismes informels risquent d’émerger et de produire des effets similaires.

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Favoriser la mixité socioéconomique des élèves

Pour éviter que la réforme ne soit contournée, elle devrait s’accompagner d’investissements importants dans les infrastructures publiques afin de les rendre aussi attrayantes que celles du secteur privé.

Cette limite renvoie plus largement au caractère structurel des inégalités scolaires. Comme le montrent plusieurs travaux en sociologie de l’éducation, celles-ci ne découlent pas uniquement des ressources matérielles des établissements, mais aussi des politiques publiques encadrant les parcours scolaires.

Concrètement, lorsque certains établissements et programmes regroupent majoritairement des élèves de milieux favorisés tandis que d’autres accueillent majoritairement des élèves de milieux défavorisés, les écarts de réussite ont tendance à se creuser. À l’inverse, des structures plus intégrées, où des élèves de différents milieux sociaux fréquentent les mêmes écoles et les mêmes classes, favorisent davantage la mixité et contribuent à atténuer ces disparités.

Dans cette perspective, investir dans les infrastructures publiques demeure nécessaire, mais insuffisant. Sans transformation des mécanismes de répartition des élèves, les dynamiques de ségrégation risquent de se maintenir.

Une solution pour éviter la polarisation

Comme le souligne la professeure de sociologie Maryse Potvin, le fonctionnement même des systèmes scolaires et des écoles peut avoir des impacts sur la polarisation, l’exclusion et même parfois la radicalisation.

Les marchés scolaires, incluant les quasi-marchés scolaires comme le système québécois, sont notamment identifiés comme des vecteurs d’inégalité et de discrimination. Dans cette perspective, la solution proposée par Nadeau-Dubois paraît pertinente pour réduire la polarisation, mais il est possible d’aller plus loin.

En effet, d’autres pratiques scolaires peuvent également favoriser l’exclusion. Par exemple, certaines normes implicites, comme les façons de s’exprimer ou de participer en classe, avantagent les élèves pour qui les habitudes correspondent aux attentes de l’école. Tel que cela est présenté dans le livre blanc de Nadeau-Dubois, la socialisation des filles est souvent plus en phase avec le monde scolaire que celle des garçons. À l’inverse, les garçons peuvent être perçus comme moins engagés, ce qui peut alimenter des incompréhensions et des sentiments d’injustice. Ces attentes implicites participent donc à l’exclusion et aux problèmes scolaires des garçons.

Dans cette optique, la mise en place de l’enseignement inclusif constitue une autre piste pertinente. En valorisant la diversité des expériences, en reconnaissant différentes formes de réussites et en adaptant les pratiques pédagogiques aux besoins de l’ensemble des élèves, cet enseignement vise à réduire ces décalages et à favoriser des interactions plus équitables, contribuant à limiter les dynamiques d’exclusion.

Un bon point de départ

En somme, le livre blanc de Nadeau-Dubois produit un discours pertinent par rapport aux enjeux liés à la ségrégation scolaire dans le système québécois, particulièrement par rapport aux garçons issus de milieux défavorisés. La proposition d’un réseau unifié apparaît comme une piste prometteuse pour réduire ces écarts et limiter la ségrégation scolaire.

Toutefois, ses effets dépendront fortement des moyens qui l’accompagnent et des pratiques pédagogiques mises en place. Sans investissements et sans transformation plus large du système, les inégalités risquent simplement de se déplacer plutôt que de disparaître.

Simon Bilodeau-Carrier est doctorant en sciences de l’éducation à l’Université de Montréal. Il est récipiendaire d’une bourse de recherche octroyée par les Fonds de recherche du Québec. Enfin, il possède une carte de membre pour le parti politique Québec Solidaire, sans toutefois y occuper un poste.

– ref. École à trois vitesses : les garçons issus de milieux défavorisés en paient le prix fort – https://theconversation.com/ecole-a-trois-vitesses-les-garcons-issus-de-milieux-defavorises-en-paient-le-prix-fort-281693

May 12, 2026

Bilingualism and sex hormones may provide a new link to brain resilience and dementia risk

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Noelia Calvo, Research Associate, Neuroscience, University of Toronto

Why do some people maintain good memories and have healthy brains even as they age?

Research that my colleagues and I recently published in Alzheimer’s & Dementia: Diagnosis, Assessment & Disease Monitoring, explored the effects and interactions of social, linguistic and endocrinological factors on cognitive health.

With Canada’s aging population, the question of brain health is a relevant one. The most recent census in 2021 indicated that one in eight Canadians is aged 70 or over, and there are 1.7 million who are age 80 or older. These numbers show a growing population of older adults at increased risk of cognitive decline, highlighting the need to examine protective factors.

Previous research indicates that bilingualism may be a possible protective factor. Notably, the 2021 census indicated that bilingualism is also increasing among Canadians, with four in 10 (41 per cent) speaking more than one language.

While bilingualism may be one piece of the puzzle, other cognitive or biological factors also influence brain health. Verbal memory — the ability to remember words — has been linked to cognitive resilience. The presence of sex hormones such as estrogen and testosterone, which are present in both men and women, may also influence how the brain ages.

Studying a trio of factors

The relationship between these three factors — bilingualism, verbal memory and sex hormones — has not been studied before. To address this gap, my colleagues and I conducted a new study in Canada. We found that bilingualism may interact with verbal memory and sex hormones to influence dementia risk in unexpected ways.

Our study included data from 335 older adults with mild cognitive impairment and 170 patients with Alzheimer’s disease drawn from the Comprehensive Assessment of Neurodegeneration and Dementia (COMPASS-ND) cohort, which is part of the Canadian Consortium on Neurodegeneration and Aging.

COMPASS-ND includes more than 1,200 Canadian adults aged 50–90 years recruited across more than 30 sites nationwide. Using this rich and current database, we examined how sex hormones, verbal memory and bilingualism jointly influence cognitive resilience, brain structure and blood-based markers of Alzheimer’s disease.

This article is part of our ongoing series The Grey Revolution. The Conversation Canada and La Conversation are exploring the impact of the aging boomer generation on Canadian society, including housing, working, culture, nutrition, travelling and health care. The series explores the upheavals already underway and those looming ahead.

We created a resilience index for each participant that incorporated sex hormones, verbal memory, bilingual proficiency, education, age and immigration status. Age, education, and immigration status were included as covariates because they may influence cognitive resilience through differences in language experiences, educational opportunities and sociocultural adaptation across the lifespan.

Each unit increase in the resilience index was associated with a significant reduction in the odds of dementia-related pathology. Higher resilience index scores were also linked to better performance on clinical diagnostic tools such as the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), as well as lower levels of key markers associated with neurodegeneration and glial activation, a process in which the brain’s support cells become reactive in response to injury or disease.

Overall, bilingual participants showed the highest resilience index scores, but with notable differences in how these effects manifested across biological sex.

Our findings challenge the idea that risk and resilience can be understood by looking at biological or social factors in isolation. By studying bilingualism and sex hormones together, we reveal how these factors may interact to shape brain resilience.

Bilingualism and verbal memory

Another important finding of our study was related to verbal memory. Consistent with previous research, women showed better performance in verbal memory. This sex difference is clinically important because verbal memory is often used as a proxy for general cognitive function, meaning it can influence how dementia is diagnosed in women.

One might expect that bilingual women would be especially protected, since they have both the bilingualism benefit and strong verbal memory.

Surprisingly, our study found the opposite: bilingual men showed greater brain protection. Our findings suggested that a combination of two factors may be a mechanism behind enhanced verbal memory and cognitive resilience in aging men: aromatization — the conversion of testosterone into estradiol — and bilingual language experience.

In people with mild cognitive impairment, higher estradiol levels produced through aromatization, together with bilingualism, may work synergistically to protect verbal memory, making older bilingual men more resilient to cognitive decline and neurodegenerative pathology.

Overall, our study suggests that bilingual men may have greater resilience to neuropathology and that sex hormones could influence dementia risk in aging women. These findings underscore the need for more research on how sex hormones affect brain health, as well as the importance of using measures beyond verbal memory to improve the accuracy of cognitive decline diagnoses in Canada.

The research discussed in this article was supported by external funding from the Synapse Challenge award, Canadian Consortium on Neurodegeneration (CCNA). The funding period has now concluded.

– ref. Bilingualism and sex hormones may provide a new link to brain resilience and dementia risk – https://theconversation.com/bilingualism-and-sex-hormones-may-provide-a-new-link-to-brain-resilience-and-dementia-risk-279490

May 12, 2026

Conflit Inde-Pakistan : la médiation impromptue de Trump embarrasse New Delhi

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Amélie Chalivet, Candidate au doctorat et chargée de cours en Relations internationales, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

En mai 2025, une brève flambée de violence entre l’Inde et le Pakistan ramène le Cachemire au centre de l’attention internationale.

Le président américain Donald Trump s’en saisit pour annoncer un cessez-le-feu qu’il présente comme « médié » par Washington. Pour New Delhi, c’est un revers diplomatique.

Pour comprendre cette réaction, il importe de tenir compte à la fois de l’histoire du conflit indo-pakistanais et des spécificités de l’approche américaine sous Donald Trump.

Le Cachemire et l’enjeu de l’internationalisation

Depuis la Partition des Indes britanniques en 1947, qui a créé deux États autonomes, l’Inde et le Pakistan, le Cachemire (région himalayenne à la jonction des deux pays) est un enjeu central source de tensions. Les deux pays se sont livré une guerre à ce sujet dès 1947. Une médiation de l’ONU, à la demande de l’Inde, avait alors permis d’aboutir à un cessez-le-feu en 1948.

En 1972, les accords de Simla marquent une rupture avec cette politique de médiation externe, en précisant que les différends seront désormais résolus par des négociations bilatérales directes. Le gouvernement indien a donc cherché, à partir de cette date, et encore davantage depuis 2019, à rejeter l’idée qu’un acteur tiers, qu’il s’agisse d’un État ou des Nations unies, puisse intervenir dans les négociations autour du Cachemire. Les accords de Simla ont depuis été utilisés comme un bouclier contre l’ingérence des grandes puissances.

Le 5 août 2019, le gouvernement indien de Narendra Modi abroge néanmoins l’Article 370 de la Constitution. Cet Article conférait à l’ancien État du Jammu-et-Cachemire un statut spécial et un certain niveau d’autonomie, ancrés dans la Constitution depuis son adhésion à l’Inde en 1947. L’abrogation de l’Article a pour conséquence de transformer le Jammu-et-Cachemire en deux territoires (Jammu-et-Cachemire d’un côté, et Ladakh de l’autre) directement administrés par le pouvoir central, dans un contexte de durcissement du contrôle étatique.

Le Cachemire a longtemps été traité comme un conflit international, ce qui légitimait par exemple l’implication de l’ONU. En supprimant le statut spécial du Jammu-et-Cachemire, New Delhi souhaitait le recadrer comme une affaire relevant strictement de l’autorité indienne.

Le Pakistan a opéré le mouvement inverse et a cherché à internationaliser encore davantage cet enjeu en faisant régulièrement référence au Cachemire dans ses discours aux Nations unies et en menaçant de suspendre les accords de Simla. C’est dans ce contexte d’opposition fondamentale sur la question de la médiation extérieure qu’entrent en jeu les événements de mai 2025.

La guerre des quatre jours et la médiation américaine

À la suite d’un violent conflit de quatre jours qui s’est déroulé dans un épais brouillard médiatique, les hostilités entre les deux États prennent fin le 10 mai 2025 avec l’annonce d’un cessez-le-feu par le président américain. Celui-ci attribue cette réussite à sa propre intervention et à son talent diplomatique.

Au-delà de cette annonce, Donald Trump se propose d’agir en tant que médiateur entre les deux pays dans le cadre de négociations sur le sujet précis du Cachemire, en invoquant un conflit « vieux d’un millier d’années » qu’il serait capable de résoudre. Or, dans la perspective indienne, cette mention de négociations internationales au sujet du Cachemire brise un tabou complet et remet en cause sa souveraineté sur ce territoire.

La médiation a fréquemment servi de voie de sortie pour des gouvernants qui ne parvenaient pas à désescalader un conflit. L’attitude du président américain, qui insiste sur son rôle personnel et multiplie les déclarations publiques, a néanmoins contribué à créer un important sentiment de malaise à New Delhi. En effet, cette médiation a été particulièrement mal reçue en Inde, perçue comme imposée et comme relevant d’une tentative d’internationalisation.

Dans les discours officiels, New Delhi a insisté sur le fait que la désescalade avait été décidée bilatéralement, que « la date, l’heure et la formulation précises de l’accord » avaient été déterminées par les directeurs généraux des opérations militaires des deux pays. Les dirigeants indiens ont continué à nier l’implication américaine tout au long de l’année, tandis que Trump aurait mentionné son rôle de « faiseur de paix » en Asie du Sud plus de soixante fois. De son côté, le premier ministre pakistanais, Shehbaz Sharif, a ouvertement remercié le président américain pour son implication et son « rôle proactif » dans la région.

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Parallèlement à cette divergence complète des narratifs, un rapprochement entre les États-Unis et le Pakistan s’est opéré, comme l’a illustré l’invitation du chef d’État-major pakistanais, Asim Munir, à la Maison-Blanche en juin 2025. Cette visite s’est accompagnée d’un soutien pakistanais à la candidature de Trump au prix Nobel de la paix, puis, plus récemment, de la mise en avant du rôle du Pakistan dans les négociations relatives au conflit au Moyen-Orient.

La question de la médiation remise en perspective

La comparaison historique révèle une constante : la médiation internationale n’est jamais neutre. En 1966 (avant les accords de Simla), la médiation soviétique à Tachkent a permis de rétablir le statu quo ante bellum à la suite de la guerre indopakistanaise de 1965 et a donné l’opportunité à l’URSS « d’affirmer son rôle de leader dans la région ».

À la suite de la guerre de Kargil en 1999, les États-Unis ont exigé le retrait pakistanais sans se positionner en tant que médiateurs officiels, une posture alors perçue positivement par New Delhi.

Depuis, la conception qu’a l’Inde de son propre statut sur la scène internationale a évolué. Pour New Delhi, la médiation de 2025 implique une « rehyphenation » (rassemblement par un trait d’union) qui la place sur un pied d’égalité avec Islamabad. Cette évolution est ainsi perçue par l’Inde comme une remise en question de son statut, qui se perçoit plutôt comme la rivale à l’échelle de la Chine dans la région.

Par ailleurs, la forme de la médiation a compté : une médiation discrète peut permettre aux parties de « sauver la face », mais une médiation performative et médiatisée, comme celle que l’administration Trump s’est félicitée d’avoir menée en 2025, réduit l’Inde à un acteur passif. En proposant une négociation autour d’un conflit « de mille ans » et en revendiquant le prix Nobel de la paix pour ce rôle de médiateur, les États-Unis, par la voix de Trump, ont été perçus par New Delhi comme niant la capacité du pays à gérer ses propres crises.

Cette médiation n’est donc pas neutre et révèle une asymétrie structurelle ainsi qu’une compréhension mutuelle limitée entre les deux partenaires. Si le partenariat indo-américain est loin d’être rompu, cet inconfort lié à la médiation de 2025 pèse sur les relations entre les deux États, alors qu’ils tentent de conclure un accord commercial dans la foulée des tarifs imposés par Washington. Cela incite l’Inde à poursuivre la diversification de ses partenariats, aux premiers rangs desquels figurent l’Union européenne et le Canada.

Amélie Chalivet ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Conflit Inde-Pakistan : la médiation impromptue de Trump embarrasse New Delhi – https://theconversation.com/conflit-inde-pakistan-la-mediation-impromptue-de-trump-embarrasse-new-delhi-278286

May 12, 2026

École à trois vitesses : les garçons défavorisés en paient le prix fort

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Simon Bilodeau-Carrier, Étudiant au doctorat en sciences de l’éducation, Université de Montréal

La ségrégation scolaire au Québec

Le livre blanc

Une solution aux opportunités d’études inégalitaires

Ainsi, la suppression des mécanismes officiels de sélection ne constitue pas une solution complète. Des mécanismes informels risquent d’émerger et de produire des effets similaires.

Déjà des milliers d’abonnés à l’infolettre de La Conversation. Et vous ? Abonnez-vous gratuitement à notre infolettre pour mieux comprendre les grands enjeux contemporains.

Favoriser la mixité socioéconomique des élèves

Une solution pour éviter la polarisation

Un bon point de départ

– ref. École à trois vitesses : les garçons défavorisés en paient le prix fort – https://theconversation.com/ecole-a-trois-vitesses-les-garcons-defavorises-en-paient-le-prix-fort-281693

May 12, 2026

Are you exercising at the wrong time? How your body clock can affect your workouts

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Hough, Lecturer Sport and Exercise Physiology, University of Westminster

Your chronotype plays an important role in many bodily processes. we.bond.creations/ Shutterstock

While some people can spring out of bed at six in the morning and go straight into their day, others prefer to wake up later as they’re most productive in the afternoon or evening. This difference is due to your chronotype – the biological tendency to prefer certain times of day for sleep, waking and activity.

But these aren’t the only factors affected by your chronotype. A growing body of research also suggests that your chronotype can affect the benefits you see from exercise.

People who naturally rise early and feel sharpest in the morning are “early chronotypes”, whereas those who prefer to wake later and function better in the afternoon or evening are “late chronotypes”. People who fall in between are “intermediate chronotypes”.

Your chronotype is determined by your circadian rhythms – the body’s natural daily cycles that repeat around every 24 hours. Although these are strongly influenced by our environment, they function even without external cues such as daylight and food. These rhythms affect our physiology, behaviour and health.

Our circadian rhythms are controlled by the body’s circadian system, which is made up of tiny biological clocks composed of proteins, which are found in organs and tissues. These clocks rely on genes that help coordinate when different processes happen, such as when we feel alert or sleepy.

The circadian system also influences many other bodily functions, including blood pressure, heart rate, blood sugar regulation and blood vessel function. As these factors are also affected by physical activity, this may explain why aligning your workouts to your natural chronotype can be beneficial.

Some studies support this, suggesting that the time of day people exercise can influence health outcomes – including cardiovascular fitness and reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease, obesity and some cancers.

However, as these were observational studies (which only show associations rather than cause and effect), they can’t definitively prove that the findings were solely caused by the timing of the exercise.

But a recent randomised controlled trial has investigated whether aligning workouts with chronotype could enhance the benefits of exercise. The researchers specifically looked at people who were at risk of cardiovascular disease.

Participants were grouped according to their chronotype, which was measured using a specialist questionnaire. Morning types exercised between 8–11am and evening types exercised between 6-9pm. A third group exercised at the opposite time to their chronotype (morning types in the evening and evening types in the morning).

Participants whose exercise was aligned with their chronotype experienced greater improvements in blood pressure, aerobic fitness, blood glucose, cholesterol and sleep than participants whose training times were misaligned with their chronotype.

But though these improvements show that timing exercise to your chronotype can enhance its health benefits, there are a couple of important nuances.

Even the group that exercised at the supposedly wrong time still experienced health benefits, showing that exercise is beneficial even when it doesn’t align with your chronotype. The study also did not include intermediate chronotypes, who make up around 60% of the adult population. For these people, the timing of exercise may be less important.

Based on the available evidence, exercise timing appears to be a meaningful consideration, particularly for people who are strong morning or evening chronotypes.

Beyond your chronotype

So how do you know your chronotype?

Most people have an intuitive sense of this based on when they naturally prefer to sleep and wake. However, work schedules and care-giving responsibilities often force us into routines that conflict with our chronotype. Over time, this makes it harder to be sure of your chronotype.

A fit man and woman perform a yoga move in an apartment while the morning sun shines through a window. — Morning chronotypes may better benefit from exercising soon after they wake up.
Gorodenkoff/ Shutterstock

For this reason, researchers developed a questionnaire to help you determine your chronotype. The 19 questions include what time you feel you’re at your peak and how easy you find it to wake up in the morning.

Once you have a clearer sense of your chronotype, you can start thinking about when to schedule your training.

However, chronotype isn’t the only factor that can affect training and how you respond to exercise. This is good news for those who may not be able to align workouts with their chronotype.

For instance, body temperature usually peaks in the afternoon regardless of chronotype, which enhances muscle function. This is why strength, speed and coordination tends to be best in the afternoon, making it a prime window for resistance training and technical practice for most people.

Habitual training time can also shift performance over time as the body adapts to the time you regularly train. So even if you’re naturally a night owl, consistent morning training may eventually make you perform better at that time.

Another critical factor to consider when deciding when to workout is sleep.

If you haven’t slept well the night before, research suggests it’s better to exercise earlier in the day, regardless of your chronotype. This is because the drive to sleep, known as “sleep pressure”, builds steadily from the moment you wake up and peaks just before you fall asleep. By evening, growing sleep pressure makes exercise feel harder and can impair your performance.

Exercising late in the evening can also reduce sleep quality, particularly when the session is intense. As a general rule, leave at least a two-hour gap between exercise and bedtime.

There’s no single best time to exercise that works for everyone. While the evidence on the long-term health benefits of matching exercise time to chronotype is growing, some principles apply broadly.

Peak performance varies by chronotype, and matching your workout time to yours may help you train harder and achieve better health benefits. However, any exercise is better than none – regardless of timing.

If you’re a night owl but can only train in the morning, a warm-up is essential. Wear extra clothing and start with 10-15 minutes of light aerobic activity to gradually increase body temperature and increase alertness.

If evenings are your only option, opt for moderate or low-intensity activities (such as yoga or a jog) to avoid disrupting sleep.

Paul Hough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Are you exercising at the wrong time? How your body clock can affect your workouts – https://theconversation.com/are-you-exercising-at-the-wrong-time-how-your-body-clock-can-affect-your-workouts-282297

May 12, 2026

AI doesn’t create bias, it inherits it – how do we ensure fairness when it comes to automated decisions?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Mayowa Farayola, PhD Graduate, School of Computing, Dublin City University

Hiring algorithms are one of the systems that could be affected by discrimination. PeopleImages

If artificial intelligence (AI) systems shape decisions that affect people’s lives, they should do so fairly. This should be a given considering that potential applications for AI include automated hiring systems, as well as tools used in education, finance and criminal justice.

But ensuring the fairness of AI systems is far more complex than it might sound. Despite years of research, there is still no consensus on what fairness means, how it should be measured, or whether it can ever be fully achieved.

Fairness inherently depends on context. What counts as fair in one domain may be inappropriate or even harmful in another. In criminal justice, fairness may prioritise avoiding disproportionate harm to particular communities. In education, it may focus on equal opportunity and long-term outcomes.

In finance, it often involves balancing access to credit with risk assessment. Because AI systems must be formalised mathematically, researchers translate fairness into technical definitions expressed through metrics that specify how outcomes should be distributed across groups.

These metrics are useful tools, but they are not neutral. Each encodes assumptions about which differences matter and which trade-offs are acceptable.

Problems with the data

A deeper issue lies in the data itself. AI systems learn from historical datasets that reflect past decisions, institutional practices, and social inequalities. When a model is trained to replicate observed outcomes, such as hiring decisions or loan and mortgage approvals, it may reproduce existing injustices under the appearance of objectivity.

Optimising for one notion of fairness often means violating another. This tension is evident in automated loan approval systems. An algorithm may be designed so that applicants with the same predicted probability of default are treated similarly across demographic groups.

Yet one group may still be more likely to be incorrectly denied credit, while another may be more likely to receive loans they later struggle to repay. Fairness in predictive accuracy can therefore conflict with fairness in how financial risk and opportunity are distributed.

These differences often reflect structural inequalities embedded in the data the model is trained on. Groups that have historically faced barriers to credit, due to factors such as discrimination or exclusion from financial systems, may have thinner credit histories or lower recorded incomes.

As a result, models can treat socioeconomic disadvantage as a signal of higher risk, even when it does not reflect an individual’s actual ability to repay.

The same pattern emerges in hiring. If a company historically promoted fewer women into senior roles, a system trained to predict “successful” candidates may learn patterns that favour characteristics more common among men, even if gender is not explicitly included as an input. In both cases, the model does not invent bias, it inherits it.

A fundamental question is whether AI systems mirror the world as it was, or attempt to correct for known injustices.

The idea of fairness is further complicated by how it is assessed. Many assessments examine a single protected attribute, such as gender or race, in isolation. While common, this approach can obscure how discrimination operates in practice.

An automated hiring system might appear fair when comparing men and women overall, and fair when comparing ethnic groups overall, yet it might also consistently disadvantage older women from minority backgrounds.

Structural inequalities may be embedded in the data used for AI systems covering everything from mortgage approvals to loans.
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Complex evaluation

People are defined by several characteristics that intersect, including age, ethnicity, disability, and socioeconomic background. Because these intersectional subgroups are often small and underrepresented in data, the harms they face may remain invisible in standard evaluations.

This invisibility has a direct technical consequence. When a subgroup is small, the model encounters too few examples to learn reliable patterns for that group and instead applies generalisations drawn from the broader categories it has seen more of, which may not reflect that group’s actual characteristics or circumstances.

Errors and biases affecting small subgroups are also less likely to surface in standard performance metrics, which aggregate results across all users and can therefore mask poor outcomes for minorities within minorities. Which means that those most at risk are therefore often the least visible.

These challenges suggest that fairness in AI cannot be reduced to better metrics or more sophisticated algorithms. Fairness is shaped by institutional context, historical legacies, and power relations.

Decisions about what data to collect, which objectives to optimise, and how systems are deployed are influenced by social and organisational factors. Technical fixes are necessary but insufficient. Meaningful approaches must engage with the broader context in which AI systems operate.

This includes involving interested parties beyond engineers and data scientists. People affected by AI systems, often members of marginalised communities, possess contextual knowledge about risks and harms that may not be visible from a purely technical perspective.

Participatory approaches, in which affected groups contribute to the design and governance of AI systems, acknowledge that fairness cannot be defined without considering those who bear the consequences of automated decisions.

Even when interventions appear successful, they may not remain so. Societies change, demographics shift and language evolves. A system that performs acceptably today may produce unfair outcomes tomorrow. In particular, recent advances in large language models, the technology underlying many widely used AI tools, add further complexity.

Unlike traditional systems that make specific predictions, these models generate language based on vast collections of historical text. Such datasets inevitably contain stereotypes and imbalances.

Fairness is therefore not a one-time achievement but an ongoing responsibility requiring monitoring, accountability, and a willingness to revise or withdraw systems when harms emerge.

Together, these challenges suggest that fairness in AI is not a purely technical problem awaiting a finite solution. It is a moving target shaped by social values and historical context.

Rather than asking whether an AI system is fair in the abstract, a more productive question may be: fair according to whom, under what conditions, and with what forms of accountability? How we answer that question will shape not only the systems we build, but the kind of society they help to create.

Michael Mayowa Farayola receives funding from Taighde Éireann Research Ireland grants 13/RC/2094_P2 (Lero) and 13/RC/2106_P2 (ADAPT) and is co-funded under the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).

– ref. AI doesn’t create bias, it inherits it – how do we ensure fairness when it comes to automated decisions? – https://theconversation.com/ai-doesnt-create-bias-it-inherits-it-how-do-we-ensure-fairness-when-it-comes-to-automated-decisions-280927

May 12, 2026

Vitamin B12: the essential nutrient with a complicated cancer link

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ahmed Elbediwy, Senior Lecturer in Cancer Biology & Clinical Biochemistry, Kingston University

We’ve all heard the advice: eat your fruit and vegetables, get your vitamins, and stay healthy. For the most part, that guidance holds up. But some nutrients have a more complicated story, and vitamin B12 is a fascinating example.

Also known as cobalamin, B12 is essential for life. It helps the body produce red blood cells, keeps the nervous system functioning, and plays a central role in how cells copy and repair DNA.

B12 is found naturally in animal products such as meat, fish, eggs, milk and cheese. Some cereals and breads are also fortified with it, helping people who do not eat meat get enough. Most people following a varied diet get the recommended amount, but vegans, people with certain gut conditions and older adults who absorb nutrients less efficiently may need supplements.

Selection of dairy products, meats and vegetables that contain vitamin B12 — Most people can get sufficient vitamin B12 from their diet.
Tatjana Baibakova/Shutterstock

Without enough B12, things can go wrong, sometimes seriously, especially if deficiency is not recognised and treated. Yet in recent years, researchers have been asking whether high levels of B12 intake or high levels of B12 in the blood could be linked to cancer.

Staying balanced

The body is constantly making new cells. Every time a cell divides, it needs to copy its DNA accurately. Vitamin B12 is critical to that process. When levels are too low, DNA can be copied incorrectly, leading to mutations that, over many years, may increase the risk of certain cancers, particularly colon cancer. This is why B12 deficiency is taken seriously.

A 2025 case-control study from Vietnam found what researchers described as a U-shaped relationship between B12 intake and cancer risk, with both lower and higher intakes associated with increased risk. Because this kind of study can show an association but cannot prove cause and effect, the takeaway is not that B12 is dangerous. It is that balance matters.

It might seem logical that if B12 helps healthy cells thrive, taking extra doses should offer extra protection against cancer. But research does not fully support this. Vitamin B12 supports cell growth generally, not only the growth of healthy cells. One concern is that, if pre-cancerous cells are already present, very high availability of growth-supporting nutrients such as B12 could, in theory, support their growth too. But this remains difficult to prove in humans.

Overall, studies of high-dose B vitamin supplements taken over long periods have not shown clear protective effects against cancer incidence or cancer deaths. One analysis did report a reduced risk of melanoma, but this was a cancer-specific finding rather than evidence that high-dose B vitamins prevent cancer generally. Some observational research has also suggested a slight increase in lung cancer risk linked to long-term, high-dose B6 and B12 supplementation, particularly among men and smokers, although this kind of study cannot prove that the supplements caused the cancers.

Doctors have noticed that many cancer patients show unusually high levels of B12 in their blood. This raises an important question: does elevated B12 contribute to cancer, or can cancer itself cause B12 levels to rise?

Research in 2022 concluded that high B12 in cancer patients is often an “epiphenomenon”. In other words, the vitamin appears alongside the disease but does not necessarily trigger it. Further research from 2024 reached a similar conclusion.

This effect is thought to involve two main mechanisms. First, tumours can affect the liver, which stores large amounts of B12. When the liver is damaged or under strain, it may release more B12 into the bloodstream. Second, some tumours may increase proteins that bind to B12 in the blood. This can push blood test readings higher without necessarily meaning the body’s cells are receiving or using more B12.

Useful indication

Researchers are also recognising that elevated B12 may not be a cause of cancer, but it could be a useful marker of whether cancer is present or progressing. A large 2026 study found that colon cancer patients with very high B12 levels survived a median of around five years, compared with nearly eleven years for those with normal levels.

Similar patterns have been found in oral cancer and in patients receiving immunotherapy, where elevated B12 has been associated with poorer outcomes. This means that unexplained, persistent high B12, especially when it is not caused by supplements, should not be ignored. It may point to liver disease, blood disorders or an underlying cancer that has not yet been detected.

For most people, this is not something to worry about. B12 from a normal diet containing meat, fish, eggs, dairy or fortified foods is not usually the issue: it is very difficult to consume too much B12 from food alone. Deficiency remains a more common and better-established problem than excess.

The concern is prolonged high-dose supplementation without medical advice, or a blood test showing persistently high B12 when someone is not taking supplements.

The broader message is simple: more is not always better. Cancer cannot be prevented by loading up on any single vitamin. Long-term habits matter more: eating a balanced diet, exercising regularly, avoiding smoking, protecting your skin and attending routine health screenings.

So what about vitamin B12? Get enough through food or supplementation if you need it, especially if you are vegan, older or have a condition that affects absorption. But leave the megadoses on the shelf unless a doctor advises them. With B12, as with many nutrients, the goal is not as much as possible. It is the right amount.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Vitamin B12: the essential nutrient with a complicated cancer link – https://theconversation.com/vitamin-b12-the-essential-nutrient-with-a-complicated-cancer-link-282527

May 12, 2026

New Ontario water and sanitation law could pave the way for the financialization of public water

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Meera Karunananthan, Assistant Professor, Human Geography, Carleton University

In November 2025, the Ontario government rushed through new legislation to dramatically restructure public drinking water and wastewater services without any public consultation.

The Water and Wastewater Public Corporations Act (WCA) authorizes the province’s minister of municipal affairs and housing to remove water and wastewater services from local governments and assign them to arms-length governance structures by classifying them as “water and wastewater public corporations (WCCs).”

Despite being buried among other controversial measures in the omnibus Bill 60, the WCA drew considerable public backlash. A broad-based coalition was formed, bringing together water workers, environmental organizations, physicians and anti-poverty activists to push back against what seemed like the stealth privatization of provincial water infrastructure.

In response, Premier Doug Ford’s government tabled amendments to restrict shareholders in WCCs to “a municipality, the Province of Ontario, the Government of Canada or an agent of any of them” under Bill 98, which is now in third reading.

But University of British Columbia law professor Joel Bakan has concluded these amendments don’t rule out privatization. The possibility of shares being held by the ambiguously termed “agent” of the state opens the door for any number of public-private configurations.

Financialization

While critical details might be clarified in upcoming regulations, a troubling picture emerges when connecting the dots. Whether the WCA leads to outright privatization, its proposed reforms are consistent with an insidious global push to make municipal water and sanitation systems more amenable to private investment. This essentially transforms them into tradeable assets.

This process, known as financialization, would erode the public health and social mandate of public water infrastructure, undermining the capacity of communities to cope with growing ecological and financial stresses.

Around the world, fierce public opposition has resulted in the termination or non-renewal of private contracts in hundreds of communities around the world. Even the staunchest proponents of privatization now view water as too politically risky and insufficiently profitable for private sector engagement.

At the same time, there has been a growing appetite for “bankable” water infrastructure projects in the face of growing economic uncertainty. In response, international financial institutions and other powerful entities are pushing for policy reforms to pave the way for the integration of water into global financial markets.

Extracting profit

Privatization is not a necessary precursor to financialization. Corporatized public utilities, argues British water researcher Kate Bayliss, can perform the same function of laying the groundwork and creating revenue streams that can eventually be captured by financial markets.

In fact the World Bank, the largest funder of water projects in the Global South, promotes reforms to publicly owned and operated utilities to improve their risk-return profiles for commercial investment. In other words, public institutions are restructured to absorb risk and shift costs to local communities in order to ensure greater extraction of private profit.

The Ontario legislation follows this model by dismantling municipal services and restructuring them into arm’s-length WCCs.

By removing water and sanitation services from local control, WCCs create a more streamlined system for profit generation. Key decisions — including finances, contracts and water rates — would be made by corporate boards with little direct accountability to communities.

Deepening existing inequities

Measures that generate value for shareholders will likely take precedence over public health and equity-related considerations.

As Brock University water management expert Lina Taing warns, the proposed consolidation of operations will ultimately undermine hard-won accountability provisions. It will also diminish the “site-specific knowledge” that is central to the multi-barrier approach developed in the aftermath of the Walkerton contaminated water crisis in May 2000.

The plan would take effect most immediately in Peel Region, one of the most racially diverse municipalities in the country. By 2029, jurisdiction over water and wastewater services will be transferred from Peel to its three lower-tier municipalities, which will then be required to deliver services exclusively through a newly created WCC.

The financial implications for Peel are deeply troubling. Water and wastewater infrastructure in Peel was built over decades with public funds. Under the new Ontario law, this infrastructure would be transferred to a WCC while Peel’s existing debt remains with the municipal government.

In other words, the assets are transferred while the liabilities stay behind. Peel will be left servicing legacy debt with no corresponding revenue stream, while revenues generated from water bills flow to WCC shareholders who bear no responsibility for that debt.

This is a textbook example of what scholars describe as risk socialization and profit privatization. Simply put, the public bears the burden while shareholders capture the reward.

Flint water crisis

In the words of American geographer Laura Pulido, racialized places often become the “testing ground for new forms of neoliberal practice.”

The Flint, Mich., water crisis also began with a state-level decision to place the city under emergency management.

The unelected city manager switched the city’s drinking water source to the highly contaminated Flint River as a cost-cutting measure, but failed to ensure the water was treated with corrosion inhibitors. This caused lead to leach from aging pipes and trihalomethanes (TTHMs) to form in tap water. TTHMs are a carcinogenic by-product formed when chlorine reacts with organic matter in water.

Likewise, ongoing challenges in First Nations communities underscore the inadequacies of top-down federal initiatives to resolve the drinking water crisis with blanket solutions that are inappropriate, inadequate or unacceptable to local communities.

A recent study found high concentrations of TTHMs in tap water samples from three Manitoba First Nations reserves as a result of treatment processes that weren’t suited to local environments and climate conditions.

Stripping communities of power

Both Bill 60 and Bill 98 align with broader efforts to expand the financialization of Ontario’s public infrastructure.

The Building Ontario Fund was established precisely for the purpose of including private capital in priority infrastructure projects. Unless challenged, the new legislation will strip communities of their power to shape services according to their needs, will make it easier to extract private wealth from public infrastructure and will erode the social mandates that make public water services central to building just, equitable and sustainable societies.

Experiences with water financialization in the United Kingdom and elsewhere show an intensified form of the harms associated with water privatization.

Water rates often rise sharply to generate returns for shareholders, while revenues are paid out as dividends instead of being reinvested in system maintenance and upgrades. Over time, this can erode environmental protections, social equity and labour rights.

The Ontario government is seeking public input on Bill 98 until this Thursday.

This is an opportunity for Ontario residents to join the Ontario Federation of Agriculture, the Canadian Union of Public Employees, the Canada Green Building Council, Environmental Defence Canada and many other organizations in demanding a better future for their water systems.

Meera Karunananthan sits on the boards of the Blue Planet Project and Peace Brigades International- Canada. They are both volunteer positions enabling her learn from and collaborate with water defenders, organizations and networks involved in frontline struggles for water justice around the world.

– ref. New Ontario water and sanitation law could pave the way for the financialization of public water – https://theconversation.com/new-ontario-water-and-sanitation-law-could-pave-the-way-for-the-financialization-of-public-water-281685

May 12, 2026

How the U.S.‑Israel war against Iran is exposing the limits of the petrodollar system

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Elliot Goodell Ugalde, PhD Candidate, Political Economy, Queen’s University, Ontario

For the first time since the Second World War, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, public debt in the United States has surpassed the entire economy’s GDP. As of late March, debt held by the public reached US$31.27 trillion, just ahead of the GDP of US$31.22 trillion.

This threshold is often treated as a long-term fiscal issue, but the economic costs of this debt are now moving to the forefront. The most immediate pressure comes from the possibility that major foreign holders of American assets begin pulling capital out of U.S. markets.

Gulf states — whose confidence in U.S. fiscal and military protection has been shaken by the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran — collectively hold roughly US$2 trillion in U.S. assets through their sovereign wealth funds.

Officials across the Gulf are already reassessing their positions. In March, one Gulf official said three of the four largest economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council were reviewing their sovereign wealth fund positions to offset the impact of the Iran war.

Why the U.S. cannot simply block a selloff

The U.S. has limited options to prevent foreign investors from selling. The freedom to enter and exit what the Federal Reserve Bank calls “the deepest and most liquid fixed-income market in the world” is exactly what makes U.S. assets attractive. That same openness creates a structural vulnerability.

The U.S. economy relies heavily on stretched asset valuations — elevated prices in stocks, bonds and real estate — where market values far exceed their underlying fundamentals.

When holders lose confidence and these inflated markets correct, a run is triggered and prices fall sharply, as happened in the 2008 financial crisis. The real economy ends up paying the price.

The present situation carries similar risks. If Gulf states start selling U.S. assets amid ongoing regional instability, falling prices would reduce the value of collateral across the system.

As leveraged institutions see their balance sheets weaken, they cut borrowing and sell assets. This pushes prices down further, setting off a chain reaction that spreads financial stress internationally.

Swap lines as a stop-gap

As these pressures build, one tool has come back into focus: central bank swap lines. These are arrangements between central banks that let countries access U.S. dollars without selling their American assets. Forced selling would push prices down and spread financial stress.

During the 2008 crisis, the Fed used swap lines as an emergency backup to extend dollar liquidity to banks and governments that suddenly needed it.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said that several American allies in the Gulf region and Asia had requested swap lines, saying the arrangements would prevent the “disorderly” sale of U.S. assets.

But where does this dollar liquidity come from? For decades, the global role of the U.S. dollar allowed it to spend more than it earned, while other countries earned dollars through trade and invested them back into U.S. markets. Gulf states were central to this, using oil revenues to buy U.S. bonds, stocks, real estate and weapons.

This was part of a broader arrangement known as the petrodollar system, which traces back to a 1974 agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Oil was priced in U.S. dollars, money flowed into the U.S. and in return Gulf countries received political and military backing.

This allowed the Federal Reserve to expand the money supply through quantitative easing at home and by extending liquidity into the global system through swap lines.

Though this can stabilize markets in the short term, it also deepens reliance on repeated intervention, buying time rather than resolving underlying pressures.

A fracturing arrangement

The petrodollar system only works as long as Gulf states keep sending money back into U.S. markets. Swap lines reverse that condition: dollars must now flow to the Gulf instead of from it.

Iran’s pressure campaign on Gulf states, including attacks on economic assets and leveraging the Strait of Hormuz, are creating uncertainty in oil markets, government budgets and regional stability.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds have responded by placing greater emphasis on liquidity and flexibility.

The United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC on May 1 shows how far the old energy-financial bargain has fractured. Gulf states now want more control over production, revenue and liquidity than the cartel system allows. The move also likely reflects U.S. pressure to bring oil prices down in the short term.

That strategy cannot last. Lower oil prices may help the U.S. and other importers in the short run, but Gulf states still depend on strong revenues to fund budgets, sovereign wealth funds and diversification.

Gulf states are also signalling a willingness to expand the use of alternative currencies, including China’s yuan, for portions of their oil trade if regional instability disrupts dollar liquidity. The shift would merely accelerate the growing trend among emerging economies to move away from U.S. dollar dependence.

Extending swap lines to Gulf states may slow that process, but it may not be enough to reverse the currency diversification already underway.

A system under pressure

The global financial system was already moving toward greater fragmentation and weaker reliance on the U.S. dollar long before the Iran war.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalation with Iran has accelerated that process by shaking confidence in the political and military foundations that sustained the petrodollar system for decades.

Behind the scenes, policymakers are increasingly relying on swap lines, monetary expansion and emergency co-ordination measures to stabilize dollar liquidity and reassure allies. These tools were once reserved for acute crises, but are now becoming part of the normal functioning of the system and undermining U.S. asset credibility.

Underlying all of this is a global economy shaped by decades of financialization, growing dependence on inflated asset markets and mounting geopolitical rivalry, all of which are placing increasing strain on the old U.S. centred order.

Elliot Goodell Ugalde is affiliated with the Centre for International and Defence Policy.

Natalie Braun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How the U.S.‑Israel war against Iran is exposing the limits of the petrodollar system – https://theconversation.com/how-the-u-s-israel-war-against-iran-is-exposing-the-limits-of-the-petrodollar-system-282226

May 12, 2026

Fearful, diminished and isolated: what this year’s Victory Day parade in Moscow tells us about Russia’s war against Ukraine

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jennifer Mathers, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, Aberystwyth University

The military parade through Moscow’s Red Square on May 9, “Victory Day”, is the pinnacle of Russia’s annual celebrations marking the end of the second world war. Televised live and watched by millions, including invited foreign dignitaries, the Victory Day parade is all about showcasing Russia’s status and pride.

The first Victory Day parade was held in 1945 amid the triumph and relief at the defeat of Nazi Germany. A second was held in 1965 – but only two more were staged by the Soviet Union, in 1985 and 1990.

Under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, however, the parade has become a huge demonstration of Russia’s military prowess and might. And, since the start of Russia’s mass invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the parade has also provided a snapshot of the progress of the conflict, including the country’s wartime mood and the extent of its international support.

But this year’s Victory Day parade showed the world a Russia that is fearful, diminished and isolated. There were no military vehicles or equipment on display. Instead, the products of Russia’s military industry were only visible to the crowds in video images displayed on big screens. Concerned that Ukraine might attack Moscow during the parade, Russian officials made the decision to protect valuable weapons needed for the war by withdrawing them from the event entirely.

The Russians had good reasons for their anxieties. Ukraine has developed the capability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. Just a few days before the parade, two of Moscow’s airports were temporarily closed in response to hundreds of drones reportedly attacking in multiple regions of Russia, including near the capital.

This is not the first time that Russian officials have scaled down a Victory Day parade out of concern about Ukrainian attacks. In 2023 the situation was similar, with drone strikes in Russia leading up to the holiday amid widespread expectation of an imminent major Ukrainian counteroffensive. But even then, the number of military vehicles in Red Square not eliminated entirely. And the following year the parade featured launchers for intercontinental ballistic missiles to emphasise that Russia was willing and able to use any means necessary – including nuclear weapons – to impose its will on Ukraine. In 2025 the parade featured nearly 200 military vehicles.

Now, in the fifth year of the war, the Russian leadership is clearly concerned about their ability to protect their capital city from the Ukrainians, despite surrounding Moscow with elaborate air defences – including some equipment hastily relocated from combat zones.

It was not only the absence of military equipment that made this Victory Day parade underwhelming. One of the features of the event that helps to elevate it beyond a national holiday is the presence of international distinguished guests in the audience. This year, only a handful of national leaders were in attendance, three of whom represent former Soviet states and close allies of Russia: Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

The contrast with last year’s parade was stark. In 2025 – to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of the second world war – Putin hosted leaders from nearly 30 countries, most notably China’s president Xi Jinping, who was given the place of honour next to Putin. Chinese soldiers marched in the parade, providing a further symbol of the cooperation between the two countries and the support that Moscow could rely on from Beijing.

This year Russia’s president was surrounded not by powerful world leaders but by elderly war veterans placed around him in the viewing stand. In this company, Putin looked like just another old man, dreaming of glory days long behind him.

The sharp reduction in the number – and status – of foreign leaders that the Russians were able to attract to Moscow this year reflects changes in the international political climate that are not in Russia’s favour. In 2025, the Slovakian prime minister, Robert Fico, attended the parade – an indication of rifts within the European Union over the war and support for Ukraine.

In 2026 Fico was again in Moscow – but didn’t attend the parade. Last year Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro sat in the viewing stands – this year he sits in a US jail having been removed from power in an American raid.

War-weariness in Russia

Putin’s Victory Day speech this year was another indication of a change in Russia’s fortunes, striking a far less confident tone than in previous years. In 2023, the Russian president compensated for that year’s scaled-back parade with defiant rhetoric, claiming Russia was under threat of attack from the west and styling the conflict as “the people’s war”. In 2024, Putin responded to a suggestion from French president, Emmanuel Macron, that western troops might be deployed to Ukraine with thinly veiled threats that Russia might use nuclear weapons to reassert its dominance.

This year Putin was far more subdued. Although he denounced the west and claimed that victory would belong to Russia, these statements had a tired, ritualistic feel. His emphasis on Russia’s ability to endure anything and respond to any challenge hinted at the current state of the war.

Russia is losing territory on the battlefield to the Ukrainian forces for the first time since 2024 and is reported to be losing troops faster than it can replace them. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones regularly attack Russian oil refineries, threatening Moscow’s ability to sell its most profitable export.

But this war is far from over. Russia still has a large military, a well-resourced defence industry and is increasingly drawing in foreign soldiers to fight on its side – North Koreans marched alongside Russian troops in the parade.

But while Russia may not be on the verge of defeat, the way that it celebrated its most important holiday of the year suggests a new war-weariness. It’s a big contrast with the confidence exuded by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky. His tongue-in-cheek decree giving Putin permission to hold the parade suggests a turning point in the two countries’ morale – at the very least.

Jennifer Mathers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Fearful, diminished and isolated: what this year’s Victory Day parade in Moscow tells us about Russia’s war against Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/fearful-diminished-and-isolated-what-this-years-victory-day-parade-in-moscow-tells-us-about-russias-war-against-ukraine-282609