Wild macaques don’t abandon babies. So why did Punch’s mother?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sarah E. Turner, Associate Professor, Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University

Japanese macaques or snow monkeys, _Macaca fuscata_ to scientists, are a highly social and intelligent species. In wild and free-ranging groups, mothers do not abandon infants. (Brogan M. Stewart)

Little Punch, a seven-month-old Japanese macaque living in the Ichikawa City Zoo in Japan, has captured hearts on the internet. Abandoned by his mother in the first few days of his life and raised by the keepers at the zoo, he has had some trouble integrating into the group of around 60 Japanese macaques.

The keepers gave him a stuffed orangutan, which he carries with him — grooming its plushy fur the way monkeys usually care for one another. Some monkeys in the group were pushing Punch away, dragging him and reacting negatively to him. The internet is demanding to know why. And why would his mother abandon him?

As primate researchers who have spent thousands of hours scientifically observing Japanese monkeys like Punch, we wanted to provide a bit of Japanese monkey-world context.

Wild monkey mothers don’t abandon infants

Japanese macaques or snow monkeys — Macaca fuscata to scientists — are a highly social and intelligent species.

In the wild, these monkeys do not abandon their infants.

A Japanese macaque nurses a baby macaque
An adult female Japanese macaque nurses her one- to three-month-old infant.
(Brogan M. Stewart)

We won’t say it has never happened, but it would be an extreme behaviour if it occurred. We have also not seen it in more than 25 years of studying Japanese monkeys at the Awajishima Monkey Center on Awaji Island, Japan, where the monkeys live in free-ranging groups.

Quite the contrary, we have observed mothers caring for their infants and providing extra care for infants with physical disabilities that prevent them from clinging to their mother, and for injured or ill infants.

An adult female, Purico09, had an infant named Pukichi with physically impaired hands who struggled to cling to her. Purico09 supported her son by wrapping her arm around him during travel and while nursing (Megan M. Joyce).

We have witnessed macaque mothers at Awajishima hold their disabled infants up to nurse and walk on three limbs, using an arm to support the baby, sometimes carrying them for years longer than a mother usually would.

A Japanese macaque mother carries her yearling with extensive physical impairments up a hill at the Awajishima Monkey Center.
A mother carrying her yearling with extensive physical impairments.
(Sarah E. Turner)

If an infant dies in the wild, a mother will often carry the body for days, presumably a reflection of her deep attachment.

This also makes sense from an evolutionary perspective because, in rare cases, an unresponsive infant may regain consciousness.

To be a Japanese mother monkey is to be a dedicated mother.

Dedicated, sometimes bewildered, mothers

This is not to say that every wild Japanese monkey mother is immediately good at it. We have seen bewildered monkey mothers holding their infants upside down or becoming distracted while their infants wander into trouble.

A Japanese macaque nurses her infant in the shade
A Japanese macaque mother nurses her infant in the shade.
(Megan M. Joyce)

We have seen them looking at the new squirming creature they have birthed with expressions of mystified dismay that would be recognizable to any human mother at one time or another.

But in a wild group, those first-time mothers have relatives to help them and to learn from. They usually stay in the same group for their whole lives, and they have a dominance rank order that they pass down to their offspring.

Male Japanese monkeys are usually not directly involved with infants. As the infants get older, though, and gain more independence, the males help out too by socializing with them.

An adult male is surrounded by a group of juveniles. They groom, rest and play. (Megan M. Joyce)

Abandonment in captivity

Punch’s mother either lacked the skills to look after her infant, was stressed by captivity and its associated conditions, or both. We don’t know her full story; she may have been raised by humans herself or experienced other difficulties.

Infant abandonment does happen sometimes in captivity — 7.7 per cent of cases according to one study — primarily in first-time or low-ranking mothers. Human caretakers do their best to raise infants, but it causes challenges.

Adoption can happen in captivity too. But the environment is different in a zoo: groups are not necessarily composed of female relatives the way a wild group would be; the males can’t leave as they would in the wild. Also some zoo monkeys are raised by humans or come from the entertainment industry.

These monkeys may “speak” a different social language. Punch wasn’t able to learn how to “speak Japanese macaque” from his human caregivers.

A behaviourally flexible species

The good news for Punch (and his devoted human followers) is that Japanese macaques are behaviourally flexible and can learn from the monkeys around them, and he is already learning to communicate with other monkeys and to find a place in his group.

In the wild, infant Japanese monkeys will nurse for up to two years. When they are orphaned, they can survive at Punch’s age — especially if they are adopted, or even just befriended, by others.

A baby Japanese macaque gazes up at its mother
A baby Japanese macaque, around one to three months old, watches its mother groom another monkey.
(Brogan M. Stewart)

When Punch was approaching another monkey to play, he may have been inadvertently sending signals such as, “I’m afraid of you,” or “I’m dominant over you.”

The more time Punch spends in his group, the more he will learn how the other monkeys interact. He will learn what behaviours are okay, socially. For Punch, this is the best outcome. Monkeys should not be kept as pets — they are wild animals and need to be part of the rich and stimulating social world of other monkeys.

Infants whose mothers socialize together often form play groups, where they explore the environment and learn how to behave in the group. (Megan M. Joyce)

Punch is part of an intelligent, social and behaviourally flexible species that relies on learning social cues from their mothers and relatives. Punch will likely integrate into his new social circumstances.

Research on wild and free-ranging Japanese macaques helps us understand Punch’s story and demonstrates the importance of research on animal welfare in zoos, on wildlife behaviour and in conservation science.

Japanese macaques resting on a fence at the Awajishima Monkey Center with the ocean in the background
Japanese macaques resting on a fence at the Awajishima Monkey Center.
(Sarah E. Turner)

The Conversation

Sarah E. Turner and students in her lab receive funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada – Discovery Grants Program and Leadership in Environmental and Digital innovation for Sustainability (LEADS-CREATE), MITACS Globalink Research Awards, the Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, and Concordia University.

Brogan M. Stewart receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Fonds de recherche du Québec – Nature et technologies, Leadership in Environmental and Digital innovation for Sustainability (LEADS-CREATE), MITACS Globalink Research Awards, the Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, and Concordia University.

Megan M. Joyce receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada – Discovery Grants Program and Leadership in Environmental and Digital innovation for Sustainability (LEADS-CREATE), MITACS Globalink Research Awards, the Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, and Concordia University.

Mikaela Gerwing receives funding from the Fonds de recherche du Quebec – Nature et Technologies, Leadership for Environmental Innovation for Sustainability (LEADS-CREATE), Miriam Aaron Roland Fellowship, MITACS Globalink Research Awards, the Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Concordia University. She is affiliated with Planet Madagascar.

ref. Wild macaques don’t abandon babies. So why did Punch’s mother? – https://theconversation.com/wild-macaques-dont-abandon-babies-so-why-did-punchs-mother-277065

Mark Carney in Australia: How did he become the darling of the global anti-Trump movement?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stewart Prest, Lecturer, Political Science, University of British Columbia

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is having a moment.

While every leader in the world has to grapple with the abrupt and arbitrary decision-making of United States President Donald Trump, few have had to do so with such high stakes as America’s neighbour and ostensible ally to the north.

With more than two-thirds of Canadian exports bound for the US, bilateral trade is a matter of economic life and death for Canada. Since his return to office in January 2025, Trump has made repeated references to Canada becoming America’s “51st state” in an effort to put economic and political pressure on its northern neighbour.

Despite this, Carney has met the challenge with rare candour.

In his recent speech at this year’s World Economic Forum in Switzerland, Carney gave the world a word for the transformations now underway, describing a “rupture” in the international rules-based order.

The speech was remarkable in its honesty on other fronts, as well. Effectively, Carney acknowledged what everyone knows, but no one in a position of power has previously admitted: even before Trump’s return to the White House for a second term, the US-led liberal international order was deeply unfair in its distribution of prosperity and security.

Carney’s pedigree

Why was Carney able to say what others would not, or could not, on such a high-profile stage?

In many ways, his background and present role give him unique credibility in the eyes of the wealthy and powerful who gather each year at Davos.

Born and raised in northern and western Canada, Carney’s academic and professional career played out on a larger stage. Following a PhD in economics at the University of Oxford in 1995, he pursued a career in finance and banking that took him to the heights of both the private and public financial world.

After more than a decade working at the American multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs, Carney entered Canadian public service, eventually becoming governor of the Bank of Canada in 2008 under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He went on to become the first non-British head of the Bank of England, serving in that role from 2013-2020.

His governorships coincided with tumultuous times in both countries, spanning the sub-prime financial crisis, Brexit and the early days of the COVID pandemic. While not without criticism, Carney’s performance in both countries won significant acclaim, leading to other international leadership roles.

By early 2025, Carney threw his hat in the ring to replace Canada’s beleaguered Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was trailing badly in public opinion polls. Carney won that race convincingly, and shortly after led the revived Liberals to a narrow but definitive victory over the Conservatives in a federal election in April 2025.




Read more:
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The party’s stunning come-from-behind victory was fuelled significantly by Trump’s 51st state talk and other forms of coercion.

Commanding respect

Carney has a remarkable CV by any measure. He has moved from the heights of academia to business, finance and finally, government. In politics, he’s been successful in both Liberal and Conservative political environments. That broad credibility ensured that when he spoke from the podium at Davos about a rupture in an already unequal global political system, his words would be taken seriously.

Carney’s role as prime minister of Canada has also played a role in making him the poster boy of a global anti-Trump movement. Since Trump’s return to office, Canada has been on the front lines of America’s movement away from long-held alliances towards a more mercurial, coercive and even predatory foreign policy.

Trump’s penchant for insulting Canadian leaders, threatening Canadian sovereignty and weakening the Canadian economy in the service of American interests makes Canada an important test case that other American partners can learn from.

Within Canada itself, Carney is popular, though his responses to Trump have not always been without criticism. Some have pointed to a recurring gap between rhetoric and action.

Carney’s swift move to endorse the recent US attacks on Iran fit this pattern, as well. Yet, such appeasement hasn’t been rewarded with reciprocity by the Trump administration.

Seeking partners

As Carney visits the Pacific Rim, including a stop in Australia, there’s no question he’s put himself — and Canada — in the global spotlight for his handling of Trump.

His speech in Davos sketched out a vision of an alternate global order that Canada and other like-minded countries might collectively pursue as a defence against the chaotic and unstable world unleashed by Canada’s former friend and ally. However, that rhetoric is not yet reality.

Accordingly, on his visit to India, Japan and Australia, Carney is looking to find partners for that vision. He’s seeking opportunities to improve relations, expand trade and cooperate on issues of Pacific security.

The old world order is not coming back. What Carney achieves in his foray to the Pacific Rim may help determine what new order, if any, emerges in its place.

The Conversation

Stewart Prest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Mark Carney in Australia: How did he become the darling of the global anti-Trump movement? – https://theconversation.com/mark-carney-in-australia-how-did-he-become-the-darling-of-the-global-anti-trump-movement-277039

Les répercussions de la guerre avec l’Iran sur la mer Rouge et la Corne de l’Afrique

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Federico Donelli, Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Trieste

La mort de l’ayatollah Ali Khamenei, chef suprême de l’Iran, le 28 février 2026, marque la fin d’une ère politique dans ce pays du Moyen-Orient. Khamenei a été tué lors de frappes aériennes américaines et israéliennes sur la capitale iranienne, Téhéran. Ces attaques ont déclenché une guerre impliquant de nombreux pays du Moyen-Orient.

La Corne de l’Afrique et la région de la mer Rouge, qui relient l’Afrique et le Moyen-Orient, sont liées par un réseau dense d’interactions militaires, politiques et économiques. Toute crise sur une rive peut rapidement se répercuter sur l’autre. Dans cette zone se trouvent la Somalie, l’Érythrée, le Yémen, le Soudan, l’Éthiopie et Djibouti. Ils bordent ainsi l’un des corridors commerciaux et géopolitiques les plus importants au monde.

Mais les conséquences de la mort de Khamenei pourraient être moins dramatiques que beaucoup ne le pensent. En effet, le pouvoir en Iran est réparti entre des institutions et des élites chargées de la sécurité capables de préserver la continuité du régime.

La Corne de l’Afrique et la mer Rouge

L’Iran n’est pas un nouvel acteur dans cette région. Au cours des années 1990 et 2000, Téhéran a noué des liens sécuritaires et économiques avec plusieurs pays, notamment le Soudan, afin de s’implanter le long de la mer Rouge.

L’influence de l’Iran a toutefois reculé au cours des années 2010. Les pays du Golfe, en particulier l’Arabie saoudite et les Émirats arabes unis, ont alors renforcé leur présence diplomatique, financière et militaire.

En tant que politologue ayant étudié la sécurité au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique, je suis depuis des années l’engagement régional de l’Iran. De mon point de vue, les événements en Iran et dans le Golfe ont une grande importance pour les pays africains, car les conflits, les flux d’armes et les rivalités peuvent facilement s’étendre au-delà des frontières de cette région stratégique commune.

Trois dynamiques interdépendantes déterminent la manière dont la mort de Khamenei affecte la mer Rouge et la Corne de l’Afrique.

Premièrement, l’influence de Téhéran dans cette région a diminué au cours de la dernière décennie. Le Yémen fait exception : l’Iran y soutient le mouvement houthi, qui a déjà attaqué des navires liés à Israël.

Deuxièmement, la manière dont ce dernier conflit a été déclenché et s’est intensifié pourrait être plus importante que le changement de leadership à la tête de l’Iran. Cela pourrait contribuer à un affaiblissement généralisé des tenants de la ligne modérée.

Troisièmement, le Corps des gardiens de la révolution islamique (IRGC), la puissante force militaire iranienne, devrait jouer un rôle central dans la transition post-Khamenei.

Cela revêt une importance particulière pour la Corne de l’Afrique et la mer Rouge. L’engagement de l’Iran dans cette région repose en grande partie sur des méthodes non conventionnelles. Les manœuvres navales en sont un exemple, comme le déploiement à long terme dans la mer Rouge du navire iranien Saviz, qui a servi de plate-forme logistique et de renseignement. Le pays a également déployé des conseillers militaires et mis en place des réseaux d’armes pour acheminer les armes iraniennes.

Tout futur dirigeant étroitement aligné sur les gardiens de la révolution est susceptible de continuer à utiliser ces outils peu coûteux.

En ce sens, la continuité l’emportera probablement sur la rupture. Les ambitions de l’Iran sont encadrées par une évaluation lucide des contraintes que la guerre en cours pourrait renforcer.

L’évolution des priorités de l’Iran

Depuis la révolution de 1979, l’Iran se considère comme une puissance moyenne ayant des ambitions légitimes à la prééminence régionale. La mer Rouge et la Corne de l’Afrique ont progressivement été intégrées à l’espace stratégique élargi de l’Iran.

Après la consolidation du régime, promue par l’ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, qui a dirigé l’Iran jusqu’à sa mort en 1989 et a été remplacé par Ali Khamenei, cette ambition stratégique de l’Iran s’est progressivement concrétisée.

L’objectif était d’étendre le périmètre de sécurité de l’Iran au-delà de ses frontières grâce à des alliances, des proxys (des partenaires non étatiques) et des engagements à faible coût.

Dans les années 2000, l’Iran a noué des liens étroits avec le Soudan et l’Érythrée.

Il a établi des points d’accès navals dans ces deux pays et a utilisé des outils de soft power, tels que l’aide au développement et les réseaux religieux. Il considérait le détroit de Bab al-Mandeb, situé entre le Yémen et Djibouti, comme essentiel pour contrer l’influence saoudienne et israélienne et maintenir des routes commerciales alternatives.

Les limites de cette expansion sont toutefois apparues au grand jour.

Les ambitions de l’Iran se sont rapidement heurtées à la réalité. L’économie du pays a été affaiblie par les sanctions liées à son programme nucléaire et le retrait américain de l’accord nucléaire de 2015.

Pendant ce temps, le pouvoir politique est resté fragmenté entre des institutions concurrentes. Les pressions internes, notamment les difficultés économiques et les mouvements de protestation périodiques, se sont intensifiées. L’instabilité dans les États voisins tels que l’Irak, la Syrie et le Yémen a rendu coûteuse et incertaine toute projection de puissance régionale à long terme.

Après 2015, l’Arabie saoudite a renforcé son engagement dans la Corne de l’Afrique, grâce à l’aide financière, aux pressions diplomatiques et la coopération militaire liée à la guerre au Yémen.

À la recherche d’un soutien logistique le long de la mer Rouge et dans le but de contrer l’influence de l’Iran près du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb, l’Arabie saoudite a renforcé ses liens avec les gouvernements régionaux. Cela a incité le Soudan, Djibouti et l’Érythrée à rompre ou à réduire leurs relations avec Téhéran. Ils se sont effectivement alignés sur l’Arabie saoudite et ses alliés. L’Iran a ainsi réorienté ses ressources vers des théâtres de guerre jugés plus prioritaires, tels que l’Irak, la Syrie et le Yémen.

Depuis une décennie, la présence de Téhéran dans la Corne de l’Afrique et en mer Rouge est donc devenue plus sélective et opportuniste. L’Iran s’est appuyé sur des leviers indirects, tels que les opérations houthistes, plutôt que sur une expansion directe.

La mort de Khamenei devrait renforcer cette tendance plutôt que de l’inverser. En fait, l’issue de la guerre actuelle et le début d’un processus de succession délicat pourraient inciter Téhéran à adopter une approche encore plus prudente à l’étranger.

Fragilité croissante

Même si un changement à la tête de l’Iran ne modifiera peut-être pas son approche vis-à-vis de la mer Rouge et de la Corne de l’Afrique, les dynamiques qui ont conduit au récent conflit pourraient avoir un impact sur la région.

L’ampleur et la visibilité de l’attaque israélo-américaine – et la riposte directe de l’Iran – sont le signe d’un phénomène plus profond : la fragilisation des seuils du recours à la force.

L’Iran ne se contente plus de gagner du temps et à éviter une confrontation directe tout en limitant la marge de manœuvre de ses rivaux.

Cela pourrait marquer le début d’une période où « tout est permis ».

Les acteurs régionaux, des États du Golfe aux gouvernements locaux, pourraient se sentir de plus en plus légitimés à contourner les normes de sécurité établies. La mer Rouge est déjà devenue une un espace très disputé. Les puissances extérieures y projettent leurs forces. Les États locaux exploitent ces rivalités. Le redéploiement des forces déclenché par la guerre en Iran aura des répercussions dans toute la région.

Dans un tel contexte, caractérisé par de multiples hiérarchies, même un affaiblissement des capacités iraniennes pourrait avoir des répercussions.

La fragilité de la région, comme en témoignent la guerre civile au Soudan, les tensions entre l’Éthiopie et l’Érythrée, l’instabilité en Somalie et la forte présence de bases militaires le long des routes maritimes amplifie ces risques.

En d’autres termes, la question n’est pas de savoir si l’Iran va soudainement s’étendre en Afrique de l’Est. Il s’agit plutôt de savoir si le climat régional va évoluer vers moins de restrictions et une plus grande acceptation des outils coercitifs.

Si l’escalade devient la norme au cœur du Moyen-Orient, l’espace le plus interconnecté de la région, les répercussions pourraient se faire sentir jusqu’à la Corne de l’Afrique.

Incertitude à court terme

La mort de Khamenei pourrait provoquer une incertitude à court terme, mais la continuité devrait prévaloir à long terme.

Au fil du temps, Téhéran a adopté ce que l’on peut appeler une doctrine de « défense réaliste » : la dissuasion par une forte présence indirecte, mais à moindre coût et avec moins de risques.

La vision iranienne des relations internationales comme un jeu à somme nulle – où le gain d’un acteur implique la perte d’un autre – et sa volonté de réduire l’influence de ses rivaux ne sont pas seulement le résultat d’héritages personnels. Elles sont plutôt profondément ancrées dans l’identité du pays.

Pour la Corne de l’Afrique, cela signifie que Téhéran devrait rester un acteur secondaire mais constant. Il devrait être suffisamment actif pour entraver les stratégies de ses rivaux, mais suffisamment modéré pour éviter les engagements majeurs.

The Conversation

Federico Donelli est affilié à l’Institut italien d’études politiques internationales (ISPI), à l’Institut nordique pour l’Afrique (NAI) et à l’Institut Orion pour les politiques publiques (OPI).

ref. Les répercussions de la guerre avec l’Iran sur la mer Rouge et la Corne de l’Afrique – https://theconversation.com/les-repercussions-de-la-guerre-avec-liran-sur-la-mer-rouge-et-la-corne-de-lafrique-277574

The Iran war and global trade: will the Cape route become the new normal?

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Francois Vreÿ, Research Coordinator, Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa, Stellenbosch University

Events in the Middle East during February and March 2026 again disrupted the flows of shipping trade to the eastern and western spheres of the international system.

Given that the global economy is maritime based and rests on secure and predictable flows of goods by sea, the armed attacks on Iran and their maritime spillovers sharply underlined the vulnerability of global maritime trade and its value, which is embedded in safe and predictable deliveries of goods in the interconnected global system.

Although armed attacks caught much of the attention, a more subtle development was playing out as shipping lines and insurers again contemplated the convenience of the Cape sea route around the southern tip of Africa.

Following the Israeli and US armed attacks on Iran, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz. The impact was severe disruption to global trade.

Military hostilities and insurance risk suspensions added to uncertainty and bottle-necked carriers inside and outside the Persian Gulf. This high-risk scenario again escalated the importance of the Cape sea route as a convenient alternative should hostilities widen. Iran, for example, also fired missiles towards Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean while a US submarine sank an Iranian naval frigate in the Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka.

Based on a widening of the conflict, it is possible that the events of March 2026 could mark a turning point in how the Cape sea route is seen. Dangerous confrontations that force shipping companies to sail along the route are increasing in frequency. Instead of simply being the standing default for diverting risks to global shipping in the north-western Indian Ocean, the route is rapidly becoming the new normal for shipping flows.

I have studied maritime security events off Africa for more than 15 years, and it appears to me that the constant re-routing now calls for less ad hoc decision-making about risks and opportunities. It calls for a rethink about how the route is viewed and managed. For example, it is in the interests of shipping companies, crews and stakeholders to ensure a safe alternative route around Africa that can also guarantee a good standard of shipping and delivery of goods.

That requires paying close attention to the risks associated with the route, and how they can be mitigated.




Read more:
African states don’t prioritise maritime security – here’s why they should


African countries, and particularly South Africa with its Atlantic and Indian Ocean ports and service hubs, must become partners in ensuring a sea route of choice amid a shifting and insecure global security landscape with its maritime spillovers.

The Cape route’s value in history

Until the inauguration of the Suez Canal in November 1869, the Cape sea route was the only viable route for maritime traffic sailing between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and onwards to the Pacific Ocean.

The Suez Canal shortened the distance for shipping, but it wasn’t a perfect solution. In 1956, 1967 and 1973, Arab-Israeli Wars caused lengthy shutdowns of the Suez Canal.

After the 1967 war, the canal remained closed for about eight years, trapping commercial vessels in its waters. Later developments also disrupted shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.

Around 2008, sea piracy resurfaced as a dangerous threat to commercial shipping off the Horn of Africa. The arrival in 2008 of an international armada of an estimated 30-40 naval vessels operating under UN Resolution 1816 contained the threat. The intervention prevented the route through the Gulf of Aden and Suez Canal from becoming a piracy haven.

But shipping remained vulnerable and despite the naval deployment, shipping companies intermittently diverted large flows past the Cape.

During March 2021 the container vessel Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal for several days due to a combination of climatic conditions and human failure. This incident demonstrated that war and armed conflict are not the only risks to shipping in this region. Again, some shipping was diverted around South Africa.




Read more:
Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea raise fears of Somali piracy resurgence


By 2024, in solidarity with the Palestinian cause, the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen began attacking selected commercial vessels passing through the southern Red Sea. Extensive attacks with missiles, drones and unmanned seaborne vessels again rerouted ships southward around the Cape of Good Hope.

This rerouting persisted for most of 2024. Shipping companies had to choose between:

  • risking Houthi missiles and drones

  • being escorted by naval vessels from the US, the UK and the EU

  • taking the Cape sea route.

It is estimated that as much as 66% of shipping sailed south along the Cape sea route at its height.

The Cape sea route 2026: the risks

Duration, costs, services and sea conditions add up to a different risk repertoire along the Cape route.

One risk is the extra loss of containers; sea conditions can be very rough around the tip of Africa. This carries heavy financial and environmental costs.

A second risk relates to support along the route, which adds up to 15 days to a journey. For example, there are limited deep sea salvaging capabilities on the route. South Africa used to be a salvage hub, but has abandoned those capabilities.




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A third set of risks are those that ships face if they enter an African harbour for unplanned reasons. There they stand exposed to dysfunctional service delivery and port inefficiencies.

All require implementing risk mitigation plans.

What needs to be done

The first plan should be extensive cooperation between African governments, their maritime agencies, and shipping companies. This remains the gold standard for building maritime security to contain non-traditional and non-naval threats along the route.

For example, there needs to be international cooperation for modernisation and port service delivery. These range from bunkering services to salvage assistance to collaboration on search and rescue services.

Responses do not solely depend on naval interventions. However, naval cooperation and roping in coast guards remain critical. This requires that African maritime agencies become better organised to secure the route to support safe global trade, including trade with Africa.

Derisking cannot be a solely South African responsibility. Maritime safety and security are about cooperation and partnerships. For the Cape sea route this implies African partnerships as well, intra-continental and with other international partners.

The Conversation

Francois Vreÿ received funding from the Friedrich Naumann Stiftung for Freedom in 2022 and 2023.

ref. The Iran war and global trade: will the Cape route become the new normal? – https://theconversation.com/the-iran-war-and-global-trade-will-the-cape-route-become-the-new-normal-277582

Female writers and readers have been challenging the patriarchy for more than 200 years

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Roberta Garrett, Senior Lecturer in Literature and Cultural Studies, University of East London

Emerald Fennell’s film adaptation of Wuthering Heights has been pulling in the crowds recently, which is quite a feat in troubled times for cinema. Published in 1847, Emily Brontë’s tale of psycho-sexual power dynamics is just one of many enduring female-authored 19th century novels exploring female sexuality and desire for autonomy. These characters existed within a system that allowed women few education or career opportunities.

The ever-popular work of canonical British female writers such as Jane Austen, the (other) Brontë sisters and George Eliot were very different in style and tone. But they also draw attention to various forms of gender inequality.

Their novels focused on issues such as inheritance and property laws, the pressure on young women to marry for financial security, the sexual double standard and the lack of career prospects for women. In doing so, they gave voice to the frustrations of an expanding female readership in the 19th century.

The work of these and lesser-known female authors was crucial in shaping and fuelling public debates on what was referred to in the mid-Victorian period as “the woman question” (women’s right to vote). It later became the first-wave feminist movement in the late 19th and early 20th century.

The emergence of two inventive new literary forms in the early 20th century were key. One was modernism and the other the new printed paperback; both were intertwined with the expansion of women’s concerns and desires in the social and cultural sphere.

Modernism saw the burgeoning of experimental female writers such as Virginia Woolf and Jean Rhys in the 1920s. Then came popular genres such as mass market romance and what is now described as “cosy” crime fiction in the 1930s. Women writers and readers were creating spaces in high art and mass culture that centred female experience and domestic and personal life from the beginning of the 20th century.

The second wave

Given the importance of novels and reading to the history of feminist struggle, it is not surprising that second-wave feminism drew heavily on women’s literary heritage. This saw the publication of landmark academic studies of women’s writing such as Elaine Showalter’s A Literature of Their Own (1977), and Sandra Gilbert and Susan Guber’s The Madwoman in the Attic (1979). And with them came the proliferation of university courses on women’s writing.

The 1960s and 1970s also witnessed the birth of polemical feminist bestsellers. This included Germaine Greer’s The Female Eunuch (1970) and “consciousness raising” popular novels, such as The Woman’s Room (1977) by Marilyn French.

In the 1970s and 1980s, a more diverse group of feminist writers came on the scene. Writers like Margaret Atwood, Angela Carter, Alice Walker, Audre Lorde, Toni Morrison, Octavia Butler and Rita Mae Brown, continued to shape and expand the political and cultural scope and influence of women’s writing into queer, black and postmodernist forms.

Bookgroups, BookTok and the feminist novel

In our own era, while men are reading fewer and fewer novels, female writers and readers are keeping the world of fiction alive. Aside from being the major purchasers of fiction, women are far more likely to enhance and socialise their literary interests. Local book groups and online review and recommendation communities such as Booktok are popular spaces for exploring new literature.

They are also the driving force in the creation and consumption of successful new literary cycles. For example, one of the publishing success stories of the last ten years in English language fiction was the female-centred psychological thriller/domestic noir crime novel. This included the likes of Gone Girl (2014), The Girl on the Train (2016), Big Little Lies (2017) and The Housemaid.

As feminist literary critics have pointed out, not only are these novels predominantly written and narrated by women. Through widespread circulation and screen adaptations, they have also continued to bring to light key gender and power issues such as coercive control, domestic violence and the murder of women. At the lighter end of the spectrum, the recent explosion of “romantasy” fiction (a romance-fantasy hybrid) focuses on female desire and pleasure.

The boundary between literary and genre fiction is becoming increasingly blurred. But contemporary female writers such as Rachel Cusk, Bernadine Evaristo, Anna Burns and Eimear McBride continue to produce innovations in style and form. And younger female writers of “rage” and “sad girl” novels like Ottessa Moshfegh, Oyinkan Braithwaite, Rachel Yoder, Raven Leilani and Aria Aber are not afraid to explore edgy and unsettling accounts of women’s experience.

In life-writing, creative non-fiction and autofiction, women’s stories have also proliferated. Post #MeToo bestsellers such as Acts of Desperation (2022) by Meghan Nolan, and Three Women (2020) by Lisa Taddeo, tearing down comfortable myths of equality and exposing the persisting inequalities in women’s personal relationships.

For more than two centuries, women’s writing has not only reflected the constraints of patriarchy but actively challenged and reshaped them. As long as women continue to write, read and reimagine the world through fiction, novel reading will remain a vital site of feminist resistance and possibility.

This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org; if you click on one of the links and go on to buy something, The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

The Conversation

Roberta Garrett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Female writers and readers have been challenging the patriarchy for more than 200 years – https://theconversation.com/female-writers-and-readers-have-been-challenging-the-patriarchy-for-more-than-200-years-276231

What Americans think of the war in Iran

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

The American people are bitterly divided over the conflict in Iran. The US president, Donald Trump, won office in 2024 after campaigning on a message of “no new wars”. So the conflict that began with airstrikes conducted with the Israeli military in the early hours of February 28, and which has quickly spread into the rest of the region, has polarised opinion across the country.

An Economist/YouGov poll completed on March 2 provides early information about what Americans think of the war so far. The poll asked the following question: “Would you support or oppose the US using military force to overthrow the government of Iran?”

There is a great deal of confusion about what the objectives of the war are, since the messaging from Trump, and his senior officials, has veered from preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, to destroying the country’s ballistic missile capability, to regime change.

But, from the point of view of polling, this is as good a question as any for finding out what Americans think. Altogether 32% of them support the war and 45% oppose it.

A divided society

The responses to this question analysed by gender, race, age and education appear in the graph. Those who were uncertain are not included in the totals.
The graph shows that large variations exist among the different groups in relation to their attitudes to the war.

The relationship between attitudes to the war and the
social backgrounds of respondents

The largest differences are in relation to race. Some 37% of white respondents support the war and 44% oppose it. In contrast 7% of black people support it and 60% oppose. Hispanics were in between these two, but rather closer to whites than to blacks.

The was a large gender difference in the responses as well with 37% of men in support but only 26% of women. A marked age difference existed too with only 21% of 18-to-29 year olds supporting and 50% opposed. At the same time some 40% of those over the age of 65 supported the war with 49% opposed. Finally, 34% of those without a college degree were in support compared with 27% with a college degree. Overall, young black women with a college degree were most likely to oppose the war, whereas older white men without a college degree were most in support.

A question of politics

The social backgrounds and attitudes to the war of respondents are interesting, but they are overshadowed by the polarisation of opinion among supporters of the political parties and ideological factions. These appear in the second chart.

The relationship between attitudes to the war and the
political affiliations of respondents

The striking feature of this chart is the difference between respondents who identify with the Democrats and those who identify with the Republicans. Only 8% of Democrats support the war compared with 64% of Republicans. The highest level of support comes from respondents who are Maga (Make American Great Again) supporters. No less that 75% of them support the war and only 10% oppose it.

There is similar polarisation among liberals, which refers to anyone on the left of the ideological spectrum in the US, and conservatives. Only 8% of liberals support the war compared with 66% of conservatives. Moderates are in between the two with 25% of them supporting and 50% opposing the war.

What it could mean for November’s mid-term elections

One theory of elections argues that individuals have a set of well-defined preferences over policies and so they support the party which is closest to them in relation to these policies. In this analysis, policy preferences are summarised by the left-right ideological dimension, or alternatively by the liberal-conservative dimension in politics.

In fact, it appears that in reality the reverse is true with voters choosing a party or leader and then changing their views to fit in with those of their newly adopted party. The 47th US president is an extreme case of this, because he constantly changes his mind. Before he was elected, he promised that the US would not get involved in any more wars in the middle east. It appears that most Republicans and nearly all the Maga supporters are quite willing to go along with the U-turn and agree with anything he does.

This is a big advantage for a president who is so polarising, since it means that he can rely on a body of loyal supporters even when they don’t know the latest policy changes. However, it is a weakness when it comes to elections because the Democrats and Independents together easily outnumber the Republicans and Maga supporters in the electorate.

The Cooperative Election Study, a large-scale survey conducted at the time of the presidential election in 2024 showed that 32% of respondents in their national survey identified with the Democrats, 27% with the Independents and 30% with the Republicans. In short, the Republicans are up against a coalition of Democrats and Independents who make up just under 60% of the voters. Add the factor that many Americans are outraged by the president’s behaviour and you have a winning coalition for the opposition in the mid-term elections.

Whatever happens in the war, Trump is unlikely to recover his popularity for the Republicans not to lose control of the House of Representatives – and possibly the Senate – in the mid-term elections in November.

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC.

ref. What Americans think of the war in Iran – https://theconversation.com/what-americans-think-of-the-war-in-iran-277627

Ebo Taylor took highlife to the world and changed Ghanaian music forever

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Eric Sunu Doe, Senior lecturer, University of Ghana

The news of the passing of Ghanaian highlife star Ebo Taylor on 7 February 2026 felt less like the loss of a public musical figure and more like the closing of a living chapter of Ghanaian musical knowledge. To many, he was a legendary guitarist, composer, arranger, and ambassador of Ghanaian highlife music.

Highlife music is a homegrown Ghanaian popular dance-music, believed to have emerged along the west African coast in the late 19th century. It fuses indigenous musical elements with those of the west. Several styles that characterise it include brass and regimental influenced adaha and its konkoma variants, guitar influence and the “swing” dance bands which were popular with the then emerging local elite. These styles have become the bedrock of today’s popular musical styles.

Ebo Taylor was a custodian of Ghanaian popular musical thought, of ensemble ethics (playing music in a group), and of what it meant to live inside music as a craft and community. His mentorship shaped my musical life as an ethnomusicologist and as a musician in the palmwine genre.

I first encountered him as part of the pioneering guitar class at the University of Ghana in the early 2000s. For the next few years he shaped how I played guitar, how I listened, how I arranged, and how I understood the responsibilities of being in a band. Much of what I do today in my highlife ensemble traces directly back to those encounters.




Read more:
Ghana’s politics has strong ties with performing arts. This is how it started


Who was Ebo Taylor?

Deroy Ebo Taylor’s life in music was inevitable and self-fashioned. He was born on 7 January 1936 in the city of Cape Coast in southern Ghana into a musical environment shaped by church and community music-making. His formal education revolved around music as practice, as his father was a known choirmaster and church organist.

By his late teens in Cape Coast, he was already involved in the dance band culture that would become the backbone of modern Ghanaian popular music. This was the time when “swing” dance band highlife was popular with many Ghanaians. Bands like the Stargazers Dance Band, the Broadway Dance Band and Tempos Dance Band would provide the sounds that shaped Ghana’s fight for independence. These sounds deepened his resolve to be a musician. He often told stories of how he would break school rules to watch or, later, perform with some of the local bands in Cape Coast.

His early music was shaped by the formal instruction he received from his father and his music teacher at secondary school (St Augustine’s College), as well as his peers and eventually the various bands he played in.

Taylor later deepened his theoretical and arranging knowledge through formal studies in London at the Eric Gilder School of Music in the early 1960s. That period placed him within a broader Black Atlantic musical conversation. It connected him to Ghanaian musicians who would later shape African popular music globally. These included saxophonist Teddy Osei and drummer Sol Amarfio, who were members of what would become the globally remowned Osibisa, and contemporaries like Nigerian music star and activist Fela Kuti, who were similarly navigating jazz, highlife and emerging African popular forms.

Highlife pioneer

When he returned to Ghana, he worked with bands, recording studios, and particularly the pioneering Ghanaian label Essiebons Records. It was with Essiebons that his creative genius became widely recognised by Ghanaians, as he contributed in shaping the sound that has become known as highlife from the 1970s. He worked with great Ghanaian musicians like Pat Thomas, C.K. Mann and Gyedu-Blay Ambolley.

His fingerprint could be heard on the songs he worked on, especially in his trademark guitar phrasing and tone, and in his horn arrangements. These included My Love and Music, Love and Death and Atwer Abroba. Some of these songs have been introduced to contemporary global audiences by being sampled by artists including the Black Eyed Peas, Jidenna, Kelly Rowland and Vic Mensa.

Scholars of highlife, including John Collins and Mark Millas Fish, have emphasised the centrality of arranger-bandleaders such as Taylor in shaping modern Ghanaian dance band music. His compositional practice, as I observed it, was quite casual with a deeper sense of reflection.

Taylor’s achievements were honoured domestically and globally. In 2014 he received a Lifetime Achievement Award.

Reflections of a mentee

For those of us who had the privilege of being his students, his greatest legacy was how he imparted knowledge to us. In his classes, he embraced us as the next generation of musicians who would be responsible for carrying the highlife tradition forward. He gave us an understanding of palmwine guitar, how to play the intricate rhythms with relative ease, and how to leave spaces for the voice to tell the stories that were meant to be told.

Today, I model my ensemble pedagogy around some of these ideals Ebo Taylor instilled in us and, as much as possible, I collaborate with professional musicians who come in to engage with my students when their time permits.

His passing marks the closing of yet another library. But we will continue to hear his voice in the numerous songs he shared with us and in those of us who are building on the knowledge he passed down.

The Conversation

Eric Sunu Doe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Ebo Taylor took highlife to the world and changed Ghanaian music forever – https://theconversation.com/ebo-taylor-took-highlife-to-the-world-and-changed-ghanaian-music-forever-276406

Choosing to buy organic food depends more on trust than taste – what our new study in the UK and Japan shows

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Steven David Pickering, Honorary Professor, International Relations, Brunel University of London

Akarawut/Shutterstock

Organic food is often presented as a healthier, greener or more ethical choice. But when people decide whether to pay extra for organic milk, eggs or vegetables, something else is going on.

Organic food belongs to a curious category that economists call “credence goods”. These are the products whose key qualities can’t be verified even after you’ve bought them. There’s no way that you can tell by looking at, tasting or cooking a food item whether it was genuinely produced to organic standards. Instead, you have to take it on trust.

That makes buying organic less about what’s on the plate and more about what’s going on in people’s heads.

When people pay more for organic food, they are effectively buying a promise: that production followed certain rules, that certification means something and that the system policing those rules is credible. Whether people are willing to pay that premium depends not just on how much the food costs or how much money they earn. It also depends on how much trust they place in the certification and regulatory system behind the label, and how comfortable they are paying more for something they cannot personally verify.

As part of our ongoing research into trust, we conducted two large surveys with around 1,300 respondents in Britain and 1,500 in Japan. We asked people whether they would be willing to pay more for organic versions of everyday foods such as dairy products, meat, eggs and vegetables.

We also asked a few simple questions about trust (both trust in government and trust in other people) as well as how willing respondents were, in general, to take risks.

radishes, jute bag of veg, handwritten chalkboard sign says 100% organic
People who trust the government are more willing to pay extra for organic food.
New Africa/Shutterstock

We got the same message back from both countries. In both the UK and Japan, people who trusted the government were more willing to pay extra for organic food. This was true regardless of whether the product was milk, eggs or vegetables, and regardless of age, gender, education or political views.

Willingness to take risks mattered too. People who described themselves as more comfortable taking risks were more willing to pay a premium for organic food. Paying more for something you can’t directly verify is, after all, a form of everyday risk taking.

Trust in other people (what social scientists call “generalised trust”) played a slightly different role. It mattered most when organic food was seen as reflecting personal values, such as environmental responsibility or ethical production, rather than having guaranteed quality.

Where Japan and the UK differ

Comparing results from the UK and Japan helps explain why trust plays such a pivotal role in these shopping decisions.

Japan’s organic certification system is centralised and state-led. Organic food is less common, but public trust in the government remains relatively high. In this context, institutional credibility is crucial. If consumers trust the state, they are more likely to trust the organic label it oversees.

In the UK, organic food is more widely available than in Japan, but certification is fragmented across government bodies and private organisations. Here, trust spreads outwards: confidence in other people, social norms and shared values plays a bigger role alongside institutional trust.

In both cases, however, the basic logic is the same. Organic labels work only when the system behind them is trusted. This has important implications at a time when food prices are rising and trust in public institutions is under pressure in many countries.

Promoting organic food is often framed as a matter of better information or clearer labelling. But our findings suggest that even perfect labels won’t persuade consumers if confidence in institutions is weak, or if paying more feels like too much of a gamble.

When trust erodes, ethical consumption becomes harder. This isn’t because people stop caring about sustainability or animal welfare, but because they stop believing the promises attached to higher prices.

Organic food, then, depends on trust. And without that trust, even the most well-intentioned labels will struggle to sell.

The Conversation

Steven David Pickering received funding from the UKRI’s ESRC (grant reference ES/W011913/1).

Yosuke Sunahara receives funding from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS, grant reference JPJSJRP 20211704).

Martin Ejnar Hansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Choosing to buy organic food depends more on trust than taste – what our new study in the UK and Japan shows – https://theconversation.com/choosing-to-buy-organic-food-depends-more-on-trust-than-taste-what-our-new-study-in-the-uk-and-japan-shows-275163

Iran conflict: air campaigns rarely work as intended – they often make matters worse

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew Powell, Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies, University of Portsmouth

The US and Israel have launched a coordinated air campaign in recent days to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and navy, curb its ability to develop nuclear weapons and eliminate its leadership. The strikes have been accompanied by calls from Donald Trump for the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow their government.

In his statement announcing the start of the operation on February 28, Trump said: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.” It is clear that Trump is hoping US and Israeli air power can weaken the regime in Tehran sufficiently for the Iranian people to finish the job themselves.

This approach has been criticised by some world leaders. British prime minister Keir Starmer, for instance, told MPs on March 2 that his government “does not believe in regime change from the skies”. And, in any case, history offers few examples in which an aerial bombing campaign aimed at enabling regime change has produced positive outcomes.

There are strategic benefits to using air power. It is inherently flexible in how it can be deployed, which allows for the escalation and deescalation of violence with greater ease than is possible with land or naval power. The speed and reach of air power also broadens the range of available military targets, while simultaneously reducing the need to expose troops to risk.

But air power has several limitations. Perhaps the main limitation is that, unlike ground forces, air power is unable to hold and secure territory that would allow for the consolidation of control. This was evident following the Libyan revolution in 2011, where a Nato air campaign supported a rebellion that overthrew the country’s ruler, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.

Despite the initial success of the rebellion, Libya soon fell into chaos. Two main competing governments, supported by complex networks of militias, have spent the past decade or so vying for control. This has created a deeply divided, highly fragile state.

This is not to say putting western boots on the ground to help manage a transition would have led to a different outcome. Several years earlier, ground forces were unable to prevent Iraq from descending into civil war after the toppling of Saddam Hussein. But what is clear is that the deployment of air power alone was not sufficient to influence the political direction of Libya once Gaddafi had been removed.

Situation in Iran

The lesson from Libya is that fomenting a revolution when you have little ability to control how events play out on the ground can lead to unfavourable outcomes. This can be applied directly to the current situation in Iran.

As was the case in Libya, it is far from clear what will replace the government in Tehran should it fall. Iran’s opposition is fragmented and disorganised. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, has positioned himself as a possible successor to the current leadership.

But the level of support for him within Iran is unclear. Surveys by the Gamaan group, an organisation that attempts to gauge political sentiment in Iran, suggest roughly one-third of people are strong supporters of Pahlavi and another third strongly oppose him.

With no unified opposition ready and able to enact a provisional government if the regime falls, the result is likely to be a power vacuum. This could possibly result in a civil war that further destabilises the region.

At the same time, there is no guarantee that the US-Israeli air campaign will encourage the Iranian people to topple their country’s leadership. Rounds of protests in recent years have been met with brutal repression by the authorities, with estimates suggesting tens of thousands of protestors were killed during the latest crackdown in January 2025.

It will remain a significant risk to protest against the Iranian regime, regardless of the damage that has been inflicted on the country’s leadership. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said that “49 of the most senior Iranian regime leaders” had been “wiped off the face of the Earth” in the opening US-Israeli strikes.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which operates parallel to Iran’s regular armed forces, exists solely to support the regime and answers directly to the supreme leader. It has upward of 190,000 troops under its command and is supported by the Basij paramilitary force, which claims it can mobilise around 600,000 volunteers.

Trump has threatened the IRGC and the Basij with certain death unless they lay down their arms. They are unlikely to take notice of these threats. However, if they do, there is effectively no one to accept their surrender – it is impossible to surrender to an aircraft tens of thousands of feet in the sky.

The removal of the regime in Tehran will be wished for by many across the globe. But there is no guarantee an air campaign will lead to its demise, nor is it clear that what follows will be any better. As Libya shows, what could follow the overthrow of the Islamic Republic is instability and chaos – a situation that could create more problems than it solves.

The Conversation

Matthew Powell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Iran conflict: air campaigns rarely work as intended – they often make matters worse – https://theconversation.com/iran-conflict-air-campaigns-rarely-work-as-intended-they-often-make-matters-worse-277319

How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Nima Shokri, Professor, Applied Engineering, United Nations University

Tehran is moving to restrict – or effectively close – the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, as part of the latest escalation in the war involving Iran.

Markets have reacted to the global impact of closing this incredibly busy shipping channel, focusing on the risk to oil and gas flows, the prospect of higher crude prices and the inflationary pressures that would follow.

That concern is justified. But it captures only part of the story. A sustained disruption of traffic through Hormuz would not simply constitute an energy crisis. It would also represent a fertiliser shock (where prices go up dramatically and supply goes down) – and, by extension, a direct risk to global food security.

Modern agriculture runs not only on sunlight and soil, but on natural gas. When German chemists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch developed their nitrogen fixation method in the early 20th century, they did more than just manufacture ammonia at scale.

They launched a global chemical revolution that remains a cornerstone of modern civilization and agriculture. Through this process, methane is transformed into ammonia, and ammonia into nitrogen fertilisers such as urea – the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser. Those fertilisers allow crops to reach the yields on which today’s global population depends. Without it, harvests of wheat, maize and rice would fall dramatically.

Around a third of globally traded urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf sits at the centre of this system for two structural reasons. First, it offers access to some of the world’s cheapest natural gas, essential for ammonia production.

Second, over decades, vast capital investments have built ammonia and urea capacity in countries within the region, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This is aimed at the export market. A significant share of globally traded nitrogen fertiliser – and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) that powers fertiliser plants elsewhere – must therefore travel through the Strait of Hormuz. A closure of the strait would threaten not only oil and gas exports but also the physical flow of nitrogen-based fertilisers and what is needed to make them.

The immediate effect would be delays to shipments of ammonia, urea and LNG. They could be stopped completely or become prohibitively expensive through higher freight and insurance costs. But the deeper impact would unfold in the months ahead at farms around the world.

A tractor spreading fertiliser in a wide open field.
Farmers stocks of essential fertiliser may soon be depleted because of the Iran war.
Fotokostic/Shutterstock

In the northern hemisphere, fertiliser purchases accelerate before planting seasons. A delay of weeks can be disruptive; a disruption of months can make a huge difference. If shipments fail to arrive on time, farmers face difficult choices such as how to pay sharply higher prices, reduce application rates, or alter crop mixes. Because of how crops respond, even modest reductions in nitrogen use can produce disproportionately large declines in yield. That could translate into millions of tonnes of lost crops. The consequences would ripple through global supply chains into feed markets, livestock production, biofuels and ultimately retail food prices.

Do countries not have their own supplies?

Some countries have supplies of fertilisers, but self-sufficiency is rarer than it appears. India, for instance, relies heavily on LNG imports from the Persian Gulf to run its domestic urea plants. Brazil depends substantially on imported nitrogeon and phosphate fertilisers to sustain soybean and maize production.

Even the United States, one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers, imports meaningful volumes of ammonia and urea to help meet regional demand and reduce prices. In sub-Saharan Africa, use of fertiliser is already low. A further rise in prices is likely to reduce use even more, cutting yields and increasing food insecurity.

The system’s fragility extends beyond nitrogen. Sulphur – as an essential nutrient for plant growth – is largely a byproduct of oil and gas processing. If energy shipments through Hormuz are disrupted, sulphur output falls alongside fuel exports. So, the shock would not only reduce fertiliser shipments but also restrict ways to produce them elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the production of synthetic nitrogen tightly coupled to energy markets because it is manufactured continuously from natural gas. A disruption in gas supply or ammonia trade immediately constrains global nitrogen availability. Estimates suggest that without synthetic nitrogen, the world could feed only a fraction of its current population. The Strait of Hormuz therefore sits at the intersection of energy and food security.

Changing where fertiliser is produced cannot happen overnight. Financing and constructing new ammonia plants takes years. A double-digit contraction in exports from a key region cannot be swiftly offset. In the interim, prices would rise, trade flows would re-route and planting decisions would be made under uncertainty. Food price inflation, historically correlated with social unrest, could intensify.

Central banks, focused primarily on fuel-driven inflation, could underestimate the contribution of fertiliser scarcity to prices overall. Crucially, fertiliser shocks do not register with the same immediacy as oil shocks. Petrol prices change overnight. Crop yields reveal themselves months later. Yet the latter may prove more destabilising.

Controls and closure of this narrow maritime chokepoint would reshape the cost-of-living well beyond the Persian Gulf.

If the 20th century taught policymakers to fear oil embargoes, the 21st should teach them to fear a fertiliser shock. Energy markets can absorb shocks through reserves and substitution. But the global food system has far thinner buffers. A prolonged disruption at Hormuz would not simply reprice crude; it would test the resilience of the industrial nitrogen cycle on which modern civilisation depends.

Oil powers cars. Nitrogen powers crops. If the Strait of Hormuz closes, the most consequential price may not be Brent crude but the cost of feeding the world.

The Conversation

Nima Shokri is affiliated with Hamburg University of Technology.

Salome M. S. Shokri-Kuehni does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming – https://theconversation.com/how-the-iran-war-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-an-often-ignored-global-risk-to-food-prices-and-farming-277552