Has globalization lessened the importance of physical distance? For economic shocks, new research suggests ‘yes’

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Josh Ederington, Professor of Economics, Miami University

Distance may not be dead, but it’s certainly lost its shine.
AP Photo / Shizuo Kambayashi

National economies are increasingly moving in sync and responding to the same booms and busts as a result of near-instantaneous communications and interdependent global supply chains. This is a sharp change from much of the 21st century, when economies were primarily affected by economic shocks in neighboring countries.

That’s what we found in a paper published in the journal Economic Letters, in which we calculated measures of economic correlation using data on gross domestic product for 70 countries over the past 60 years. Along with fellow economic scholars Yoonseon Han and David Lindequist, we found that physical distance was indeed less important than it used to be, particularly with regard to how interconnected countries are to one another.

Specifically, we measured the extent to which countries have found their business cycles — the traditional boom-bust intervals of economic performance — in sync. For example, when there is a positive shock to production in Germany, to what extent does this affect incomes in the United States?

We were interested in whether the relationship between distance and economic correlation has changed over time.

What we found was that from 1960-1999, business cycles were strongly localized. That is, a country’s economy was much more likely to be impacted by shocks to nearby countries than by shocks in faraway countries. For example, the U.S. was more affected by economic conditions in Canada or Mexico than it was to economic conditions in the United Kingdom or South Korea.

This finding is not surprising and fits well with a long economic literature showing that countries are more likely to trade with nearby countries and that the volume of trade between two countries is a significant predictor of how synchronized their business cycles are.

However, we went on to find that this relationship between physical distance and economic correlation started to break down after 2000. Specifically, for the past 20 years, there has been no statistically significant relationship between the geographic distance between two countries and the extent to which incomes in the two countries move together — what economists refer to as their economic covariance.

Why it matters

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, a number of economists, including Frances Cairncross and Thomas Friedman, popularized the idea that new technologies like the internet and containerization had led to the death of distance, in which our new lives would be increasingly globalized. They imagined a future in which these new technologies not only impacted how goods were produced — like global supply chains — but also how we work and live.

Such theories were met with some skepticism by trade researchers at the time, and not all of the predictions have come true. For example, the link between distance and trade flows has proved stubbornly persistent. Even today, the top-two trading partners of the U.S. remain Canada and Mexico. And one only has to look at housing prices in major urban centers in the U.S. to see that physical location remains highly valued to most people.

However, our research suggests that at least some of the popular predictions about the globalized economy might be coming true. For instance, the world economy appears to have made countries increasingly susceptible to global, as opposed to localized, shocks.

This was made devastatingly clear to millions of people during the pandemic, when supply chain bottlenecks reverberated across the globe, subsequently generating a worldwide rise in prices. As a result, U.S. economic and trade policy discussions have been increasingly focused on potential vulnerabilities to foreign shocks. Indeed, a new buzzword during the Biden administration was “supply chain resiliance.”

What still isn’t known

Our work provides evidence that business cycles and economic shocks have become more globalized over the past couple of decades. Many of the main economic events from 1960-2000 – like the 1980s savings and loan crisis or the 1997 Asian currency crisis – had primarily localized effects. But more recently, the principal economic events of the past two decades — like the 2008 financial crisis — have had far more global implications.

What we don’t know is whether this pattern will continue, resulting in a new era in which most of the world’s economies move in tandem. Or will a new turn toward economic nationalism lead to a reversal in which economies – and economic shocks – become more localized once again?

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Has globalization lessened the importance of physical distance? For economic shocks, new research suggests ‘yes’ – https://theconversation.com/has-globalization-lessened-the-importance-of-physical-distance-for-economic-shocks-new-research-suggests-yes-272213

Aldi is coming to Colorado, and the disruption could lead to lower food prices

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Jack Buffington, Associate Professor of Practice in Supply Chain Management, University of Denver

Aldi plans to open 50 stores in Colorado in the next few years. SOPA Images/Getty Images

Grocery prices have risen by 25% in Colorado over the past five years, more than wages have grown over that same period.

One of the top issues facing Americans is the cost of living relative to housing, health care and food, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey from December 2025.

Food prices are a more acute problem in Colorado than in many U.S. states due to a highly concentrated retail and supply chain system. King Soopers, which is part of Kroger, and Walmart control nearly half of the total market share. Safeway/Albertsons is losing market share and closing stores, Costco and Sam’s Club are limited, members-only warehouses, and the remaining stores are niche providers and small independents.

Other than raising concerns about food prices with politicians, consumers can’t do much to address this kitchen table topic.

But food shoppers in Colorado are about to get a new option. Grocery store giant Aldi announced that 50 stores and a distribution center will be built in the state over the next five years.

A woman stands near a grocery store sign that reads: 'Looking for the lowest of our low Prices? Aldi Savers'
Aldi keeps prices low by including private label products, building its own distribution centers and offering fewer products overall.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Opportunity for market disruption

It’s true that Aldi’s 50 stores will barely make a dent in a state with well over 1,000 places to buy groceries. But when entering a market, Aldi doesn’t try to compete head-to-head against the giants. Nationwide, it controls just 3% of market share versus Walmart’s 21% and Kroger’s 9%. Instead, Aldi enters a market as a lowest-cost retailer, something that is desperately needed in Colorado.

I spent 20 years in the food industry and research the supply chain.

From my experience, I’ve seen retailers consolidate their market share by lowering prices – only to raise those prices again once the competition has gone out of business. Quite possibly, Aldi’s supply chain strategy is the greatest opportunity to disrupt the stagnation in Colorado’s food market and create positive change for consumers.

Competition in Colorado

Making Colorado’s grocery market more competitive isn’t as simple as adding new stores. There’s a chicken-and-egg, no pun intended, conundrum between retailers and the food supply chain, leading to a lack of healthy market competition.

Colorado isn’t a particularly attractive market for food supply chains because it lies in the sparsely populated and remote Mountain West region, and other than beef, it isn’t a significant food producer. The state is largely a food importer. Its vegetables come from California, Arizona and Mexico, processed meats from Nebraska, Kansas and Texas, and packaged foods from the Midwest.

Colorado has a stable retail market through the two largest grocery chains in the U.S. – Kroger and Walmart – but the state does not offer an attractive opportunity for new entrants or even those existing players. Walmart, for example, has a lower market share of 11% in Colorado than its average U.S. share of 21%. These two companies have little incentive to compete by bringing costs down for Colorado’s consumers.

A Safeway gas station sign is in foreground and in the background a King Soopers storefront sign is visible.
A proposed merger between Kroger, parent company of King Soopers, and Albertsons, parent company of Safeway, was blocked by a federal court due to concerns over reduced competition, effects on workers and potential price hikes.
Hyoung Chang/Getty Images

The grocer market was weakened in 2024 in Colorado and other parts of the U.S. due to a failed merger attempt between Kroger and Safeway/Albertsons. The merger, blocked by a federal court, left these companies in a no-man’s-land in the American food system: not large or efficient enough to compete against Walmart, and not nimble and focused enough to compete against the new upstarts, such as Trader Joe’s and Aldi.

Aldi to upset the market

Nontraditional supermarkets, such as Walmart and Aldi, pose an existential threat to the traditional American supermarket. Nontraditional supermarkets hold 63% of U.S. market share versus 37% for traditional.

It is becoming increasingly difficult for the traditional American supermarket, such as King Soopers, to compete with nontraditional stores that operate on razor-thin margins, pay higher wages and operate massive stores that offer a huge selection of offerings, such as 100 kinds of salad dressing.

In the face of the new realities of higher food costs, I believe that only Walmart can survive in this supercenter model. The alternative is a trend toward smaller, more nimble stores with lower costs and a smaller number of products.

9News Denver reports on Aldi’s plans to come to Colorado.

Aldi’s arrival in Colorado may be the necessary catalyst for disruption. It has the lowest costs – and the lowest profit margins – of any grocery retailer in the U.S. Aldi mainly operates relatively small stores, which means it has lower overhead and sells fewer products than many of its competitors. The key to its low-cost strategy is that nearly all of its product lines are private label. They are produced by a manufacturer and sold under Aldi’s brand name, lowering marketing costs.

Aldi announced plans to build a distribution center in Aurora, Colorado, by 2029. The new center will join ones owned by Walmart and Kroger, creating a more robust, local food supply chain infrastructure that is necessary for lower food prices.

Supply chain innovation coming to Colorado

Americans spend 10% of their income on food, one of the lowest rates worldwide, but many feel like they are becoming less able to afford the groceries they need.

In Colorado, food insecurity affects 1 in 8 people. Rural areas of the state and pockets within cities have become food deserts where the largest supermarkets choose not to enter.

Aldi’s smaller stores, private label products and Colorado-based supply chain system could have a ripple effect on retailers in low-income areas where Dollar Tree and regional independents currently dominate. A stronger emphasis on nimble and efficient food supply chains in places with many supermarkets will inevitably spill into underserved communities with very few or none at all. It’s even possible that this could improve food affordability and accessibility across the state.

The Conversation

Jack Buffington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Aldi is coming to Colorado, and the disruption could lead to lower food prices – https://theconversation.com/aldi-is-coming-to-colorado-and-the-disruption-could-lead-to-lower-food-prices-274186

Will a ‘Trump slump’ continue to hit US tourism in 2026 − and even keep World Cup fans away?

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Frédéric Dimanche, Professor and former Director (2015-2025), Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Toronto Metropolitan University

FIFA President Gianni Infantino and President Donald Trump on stage during the FIFA World Cup 2026 official draw on Dec. 5, 2025. Tasos Katopodis/FIFA via Getty Images

With an upcoming FIFA World Cup being staged across the nation, 2026 was supposed to be a bumper year for tourism to the United States, driven in part by hordes of arriving soccer fans.

And yet, the U.S. tourism industry is worried. While the rest of the world saw a travel bump in 2025, with global international arrivals up 4%, the U.S. saw a downturn. The number of foreign tourists who came to the United States fell by 5.4% during the year – a sharper decline than the one experienced in 2017-18, the last time, outside the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, that the industry was gripped by fears of a travel slump.

Policy stances from the Trump administration on everything from immigration to tariffs, along with currency swings and stricter border controls, have seemingly proved a turnoff to travelers from other countries, especially Canadians – the single largest source of foreign tourists for the United States. Canadian travel to the U.S. fell by close to 30% in 2025. But it is not just visitors from Canada who are choosing to avoid the United States. Travel from Australia, India and Western Europe, among others, has also shrunk.

We are experts in tourism. And while we don’t possess a crystal ball, we believe that the tourism decline of 2025 could well continue through 2026. The evidence appears clear: Washington’s ongoing policies are putting off would-be travelers. In other words, the tourism industry is in the midst of a “Trump slump.”

Fewer Canadians heading south

The impact of Donald Trump’s policies are perhaps most pronounced when looking north of the U.S. border. According to the U.S. Travel Association, Canadian visitors generated approximately 20.4 million visits and roughly US$20.5 billion in visitor spending in 2024, supporting about 140,000 American jobs.

The economic impact of fewer Canadian visitors in 2025 affects mostly border states that depend heavily on people driving across the border for retail, restaurants, casinos and short-stay hotels.

The sharp drop in return trips by car to Canada is a direct indication that border economies might be facing stress. This has led elected officials and tourism professionals to woo Canadians in recent months, sometimes with “Canadian-only deals.”

And it isn’t just border states. In Las Vegas, some hotels are now offering currency rate parity between Canadian and U.S. dollars for rooms and gambling vouchers in a bid to attract customers.

Winter-sun states, such as Florida, Arizona and California, are facing both fewer short-stay arrivals and an emerging drop-off in Canadian “snowbirds.” Reports indicate a noticeable increase in Canadians listing U.S. properties in Florida and Arizona for sale and canceling seasonal plans, threatening lodging, health care spending and property tax revenue.

Economic and safety concerns

Economic policies pursued by the Trump administration appear to be among the main reasons visitors are staying away from the U.S. Multiple tariff announcements – pushing tariffs to the highest levels since 1935 – along with tougher border-related rhetoric and an aggressive foreign policy have contributed to a negative perception of the U.S. among would-be tourists.

Many foreigners report feeling unwelcome or uncertain about travel to the U.S., and some public leaders from Canada and Europe have urged citizens to spend domestically, instead. This significantly reduced intent to travel to the U.S. in 2025.

Meanwhile, exchange rates and inflation have further affected some aspiring travelers, especially Canadians. The Canadian dollar was weakened in 2025, making U.S. trips more expensive. This disproportionately affected day-trip and shopping-driven border crossings.

Travelers are also staying away from the U.S. because of safety concerns. Several countries have posted travel advisories about the risks of traveling to the U.S., with Germany being the latest. Although most worries are related to increased border controls, recent aggressive tactics by immigration agents have added to potential visitors’ decisions to avoid the U.S.

A wake-up call for the US

The current tourism outlook is reason for concern. Julia Simpson, president and CEO of the industry association World Travel and Tourism Council, has described the situation as a “wake-up call” for the U.S. government.

“The world’s biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction,” she said in May 2025. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”

According to estimates, the U.S. stood to lose about $30 billion in international tourism in 2025 as travelers chose to travel elsewhere.

The disappointing figures for U.S. tourism follow a longer trend. The share of global international travel heading to the U.S. fell from 8.4% in 1996 to 4.9% in 2024 and was expected to drop to 4.8% in 2025. Meanwhile, arrivals to other top tourism destinations, including France, Greece, Mexico and Italy, are set to increase.

The decline is also being felt by the business tourism sector, with every major global region sending fewer people to the U.S. for work.

A World Cup bump?

So what does that mean for the upcoming FIFA World Cup, with 75% of the soccer matches being hosted across the United States? Traditionally, host nations benefit from sports events, although impacts are often overestimated. After a disappointing year, the U.S. tourism sector expects the World Cup to boost visits and revenue.

But Trump’s foreign policy may undermine those expectations.

A new visa integrity fee of $250 and plans for social media screening of some visitors make travel to the U.S. less attractive. And there are growing calls for a boycott of the U.S. following some of Trump’s policies, including his aggressive stance about Greenland.

An American flag flies next to posters of sporting stars' faces.
A billboard in New York City advertises the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Ira L. Black/USSF via Getty Images

Former FIFA President Sepp Blatter has suggested that fans avoid going to the U.S. for the World Cup.

It remains to be seen whether fans will follow his call. Bookings for flights and hotels were up after the dates and venues of games were announced in December.

But current political rhetoric is affecting travel decisions, especially given that fans from some specific countries may not be able to get visas. The U.S. government has imposed travel bans on Senegal, Ivory Coast, Iran and Haiti, all of which have qualified for the World Cup.

European soccer leaders have even discussed the possibility of a boycott, although such an action is unlikely to happen, given the revenue at stake for national teams and football associations.

Will the ‘Trump slump’ continue?

White House policies look unlikely to drastically change in the next few months. And this causes concern for tourism professionals, although most have remained silent about the recent immigration crackdown.

To make matters worse, federal funding for Brand USA, the national destination marketing organization, was cut deeply in mid-2025, leading to staff shortages that have reduced the country’s capacity to counter negative sentiment through positive promotion.

Soccer fans tend to be passionate about following their national side. And this could offset some of the impact of the Trump travel slump.

Yet, with sky-high match ticket prices and the international reputation of the U.S. as a tourism destination damaged, we believe it is unlikely that the tourism industry will recover in 2026. It will take a long time and good strategies to repair the serious damage done to the nation’s image among travelers in the rest of the world.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Will a ‘Trump slump’ continue to hit US tourism in 2026 − and even keep World Cup fans away? – https://theconversation.com/will-a-trump-slump-continue-to-hit-us-tourism-in-2026-and-even-keep-world-cup-fans-away-274244

Whether it’s yoga, rock climbing or Dungeons & Dragons, taking leisure to a high level can be good for your well-being

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Emily Messina, Associate Professor of Rehabilitation and Recreational Therapy, Florida International University

David Cargo, a Dungeons & Dragons player, dressed as one of his characters named Thorn Woodson, browses through board games at Portland Comic Expo on Oct. 27, 2019, in Portland, Ore. Ariana van den Akker/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

What do collecting old editions of Dungeons & Dragons monster manuals, securing the same tailgate spot for over 20 years and mastering yoga postures have in common? They are all forms of “serious leisure.”

These pursuits are different from casual hobbies in several ways. They require participation over longer periods, which makes people who practice them more skilled and more connected with the activity over time. The driving force for casual leisure is having fun; when a participant becomes more focused on accomplishment and improving their skills, the pursuit can gradually become more serious.

I direct the Rehabilitation and Recreational Therapy Program at Florida International University. In my research, I study leisure pursuits and various contexts for serious leisure, with a focus on the tabletop role-playing game Dungeons & Dragons.

I also work in recreational therapy, which helps people recover and return to their pursuits after injury or illness. The approach we use can work as well for someone starting out with a new hobby.

The idea of serious leisure was coined in 1982 by sociologist Robert Stebbins, who described the unique characteristics of more structured leisure pursuits. The more we understand about why people do the things they do, the more they can benefit from their pursuits. Even fringe or supposedly nerdy activities like D&D offer insight into the connections people form when they delve into a nonwork activity.

Executive coach Joe Casey explains the difference between casual leisure and serious leisure.

Why so serious?

People often associate leisure with ease and freedom. In contrast, serious leisure involves pursuing something for a long time and gradually developing the skills and knowledge required to excel at it. People have to push through barriers or setbacks to stay engaged and make progress.

Over time, participants come to identify with the activity and to feel included in a subculture that has its own norms and values. In my work, that sometimes means developing elaborate characters who can battle beasts, dragons and giants.

Dungeons & Dragons, which was developed in 1974, is a long-form game that takes place in multiple sessions that can last weeks, months or years. A Dungeon Master moderates the game and assumes the role of all monsters and non-player characters.

The Dungeon Master narrates an adventure, aided by a Dungeon Master’s Guide and Monster Manual. Players create characters that possess certain traits and qualities. The outcomes of battles, decisions and interactions are determined by dice rolls.

My study included convening focus groups with regular D&D players to determine whether their experiences playing the game represented serious leisure, as opposed to casual leisure associated with traditional board games.

Players described developing their characters for years and acquiring knowledge and skills. They learned how magical items and weapons worked, made calculations and researched their character sheets. All of these practices are attributes of a uniquely D&D subculture.

Participants also described the benefits they received from playing the game. For many of them, D&D offered a sense of community. It also was a safe space and a welcoming activity for those who might feel excluded by traditional leisure pursuits, such as sports and competitive games.

From yoga to tailgating

Prior studies have identified many other activities that can qualify as serious leisure, depending on the level of engagement. Some are in-person physical activities like yoga, sport clubs and rock climbing. Others include online pursuits like multiplayer online games and a virtual Harry Potter running club where members share running stories and experiences keyed to Harry Potter-themed discussion topics, such as logging miles in virtual races for their specific Hogwarts houses. Studies have explored game-based pursuits like tournament bridge, and even the social art of tailgating among serious football fans.

In each case, researchers found that participants experienced hallmarks of serious leisure. For example, participants in multiplayer online games describe prolonged immersion in the activity. Yoga students pursued systematic training and skill development. And maniacally devoted Florida Gators fans scheduled family events around football season.

In all cases, participants became increasingly involved over time, acquired knowledge and skills, and often forged shared identities and social connections.

Joining a run club to master a challenging distance shows how serious leisure can foster social connections and a sense of belonging.

Are you serious?

How do you know if your favorite leisure pursuit has gotten serious? One indication could be spending a lot of time on it and expanding your related knowledge or skills. You may also personally identify with the activity and its associated norms or subculture. Perhaps you’re increasingly spending time with other participants, and even using shared lingo.

Ideally, your serious leisure pursuit will give you pride and a sense of accomplishment. Belonging to a shared subculture can make it easier to express yourself, which promotes social interaction and a feeling of belonging.

These benefits aren’t trivial. Studies show that Americans’ social networks are getting smaller and that people are spending more time alone. These trends are associated with increased risks for premature death, heart disease and stroke, anxiety and depression, and dementia. In 2023, U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy issued an advisory on the loneliness epidemic that called for a national strategy to advance social connection.

Leisure pursuits are a way to develop shared interests and social contacts. For example, dedicated bridge players describe a social world unique to champion-level players that involves hierarchies and relationships spanning decades. Serious participants in multiplayer online games describe feeling like part of a team and working together to share materials, skills and knowledge to help win challenges and battles. And serious football fans describe rites of passage associated with fandom, such as a solo performance of the team fight song on the tailgate of a truck.

How to start

Serious leisure doesn’t happen instantly, and not every practice needs to reach this level of commitment. Casual leisure has benefits too, so there is value in just getting started. But when a beginner gets obsessed with a new pursuit, it may start to take on the qualities of serious leisure over time.

Starting a new hobby can be nerve-racking, especially when it takes place outside of our familiar home environments. Start small, go easy and match the level of challenge with your skill. You just may find yourself getting serious about it.

The Conversation

Emily Messina works for Florida International University.

ref. Whether it’s yoga, rock climbing or Dungeons & Dragons, taking leisure to a high level can be good for your well-being – https://theconversation.com/whether-its-yoga-rock-climbing-or-dungeons-and-dragons-taking-leisure-to-a-high-level-can-be-good-for-your-well-being-268842

US experiencing largest measles outbreak since 2000 – 5 essential reads on the risks, what to do and what’s coming next

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Alla Katsnelson, Associate Health Editor, The Conversation

The vast majority of people who get measles are not vaccinated against the measles virus. Andrzej Rostek/istock via Getty Images Plus

The measles outbreak in South Carolina reached 876 cases on Feb. 3, 2026. That number surpasses the 2025 outbreak in Texas and hits the unfortunate milestone of being the largest outbreak in the U.S. since 2000, when the disease was declared eliminated here.

The outbreak is exposing the breadth of dangers the disease can pose. South Carolina’s state epidemiologist revealed on Feb. 4 that cases of brain swelling, a rare complication of the disease, had emerged in some infected children, according to Wired magazine.

Some signs suggest that this particular outbreak may be starting to wane. But many public health scholars worry that the resurgence of measles across the U.S. and worldwide, driven by a drop in vaccination rates, may signal a coming wave of other vaccine-preventable diseases

The Conversation U.S. compiled a set of five stories from our archives to help readers gauge both practical considerations around vaccination and the bigger picture of what the return of measles might mean for public health.

1. A measles vaccine primer

Measles is one of the most contagious human diseases on the planet – much more contagious than more familiar infectious illnesses such as flu, COVID-19 and chickenpox. But the vaccine, which is given as a two-dose regimen, is 97% effective in preventing measles infection, wrote Daniel Pastula, a neurologist and medical epidemiologist at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus.

Most people born after 1957 have received the vaccine as children. A striking – though unsurprising – feature of the South Carolina outbreak is that at least 800 of the reported cases occurred in people who weren’t vaccinated.

A child holds a cotton ball against their upper arm, where they received a vaccine
The measles vaccine is so effective that many doctors practicing today have never seen a case of the disease.
RuslanDashinsky/E+ via Getty Images

For those worried about the risks and wondering how to protect themselves, Pastula offered some essential practical guidance.

“The immunity from a vaccine is effectively the same immunity you get from having measles itself – but vastly safer than encountering the wild virus unprotected,” Pastula explained. “The point of vaccines is to create immunity without the risks of severe infection. It is basically a dress rehearsal for the real thing.”




Read more:
Measles cases are on the rise − here’s how to make sure you’re protected


2. Long-term consequences

Most people who contract measles will experience 10-14 days of a high fever, cold-like symptoms, eye inflammation and a rash that starts on the face and spreads across the body. Because the infection usually resolves on its own, it’s easy to dismiss the fact that it can have severe consequences.

“What generally lands people with measles in the hospital is the disease’s effects on the lungs,” wrote Peter Kasson, a biologist studying viruses at the Georgia Institute of Technology, in an article explaining the near- and long-term risks of infection.

Perhaps the most terrifying is a condition called subacute sclerosing panencephalitis, or SSPE, in which the virus lies dormant in the brain of someone who recovered from a measles infection and reawakens 7-10 years later to cause “a progressive dementia that is almost always fatal,” Kasson wrote.

This outcome is rare, but it does happen. The Los Angeles County public health department reported a case in September 2025.




Read more:
Measles can ravage the immune system and brain, causing long-term damage – a virologist explains


3. What’s at stake

A common adage in public health is that vaccines are often victims of their own success. That’s particularly true for the measles vaccine – because it’s so effective, many doctors and nurses practicing today have never seen a case.

Infectious disease pediatrician Rebecca Schein at Michigan State University explored recent modeling studies that predict the trajectory of measles infection rates. One 2025 study she described found that the U.S. is on track to see 850,000 cases over the next 25 years at current vaccination rates.

“If vaccine rates decrease further, the study found, case numbers could increase to 11 million over the next 25 years,” she wrote.

That scenario is not a foregone conclusion, of course. Another study suggested that outbreaks could be contained if they’re stopped quickly – as long as 85% of the population is vaccinated against the disease.




Read more:
Measles could again become widespread as cases surge worldwide


An image of the measles virus structure
Measles is one of the most contagious diseases in the world.
koto_feja/iSotck via Getty Images Plus

4. Why do some parents opt out of vaccines?

Much ink, digital and otherwise, has been spilled discussing the rise of vaccine hesitancy in the U.S. and globally. But a safe assumption is that parents the world over want the same thing: to keep their children as healthy as possible.

To explain how parents might reasonably weigh the risks posed by vaccines and the risks posed by a disease like measles and decide not to vaccinate, public policy expert Y. Tony Yang and health economist Avi Dor at George Washington University invoked a mathematical framework called “game theory”.

“Game theory reveals that vaccine hesitancy is not a moral failure, but simply the predictable outcome of a system in which individual and collective incentives aren’t properly aligned,” they wrote.




Read more:
Game theory explains why reasonable parents make vaccine choices that fuel outbreaks


5. Measles-free status

Measles is said to be eliminated from a country after at least 12 months in which there’s minimal spread of the disease internally and only small outbreaks linked to international travel.

The World Health Organization announced on Jan. 26 that the U.K. and five other European countries lost their measles elimination status, according to Reuters. And the organization’s Pan American office issued an alert on Feb. 3, noting the alarming spread of the disease across North, Central and South America.

In November 2025, when Canada lost its measles elimination status, global health epidemiologist Kathryn H. Jacobsen at the University of Richmond noted that the U.S. will likely lose it in 2026, along with Mexico.

Jacobsen explained why this designation is so important for public health.

“The loss of measles elimination status is a symptom of a deeper issue: declining trust in public messaging about science and health, which has led to decreased vaccination rates and growing vulnerability to vaccine-preventable diseases,” she wrote.




Read more:
Canada loses its official ‘measles-free’ status – and the US will follow soon, as vaccination rates fall


This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.

The Conversation

ref. US experiencing largest measles outbreak since 2000 – 5 essential reads on the risks, what to do and what’s coming next – https://theconversation.com/us-experiencing-largest-measles-outbreak-since-2000-5-essential-reads-on-the-risks-what-to-do-and-whats-coming-next-275164

Federal and state authorities are taking a 2-pronged approach to make it harder to get an abortion

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Naomi Cahn, Professor of Law, University of Virginia

The quest to restrict Planned Parenthood’s funding has made headway. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Anti-abortion conservatives have long sought to force Planned Parenthood’s clinics to close their doors and to make it harder, if not impossible, to get abortion pills as part of a two-pronged approach to limit access to abortion.

First, undermine Planned Parenthood and other abortion providers by questioning their credibility and block their funding. Second, try to ban mifepristone – a drug used in more than half of all abortions – in part by saying it’s unsafe.

As law professors who teach courses about health, poverty and reproductive rights law, we’re closely watching what’s happening with both strategies. We are particularly interested in how they will affect women’s health care, now that each state can write its own abortion laws.

Attacking Planned Parenthood

Opponents of abortion rights are attacking Planned Parenthood because its clinics perform hundreds of thousands of abortions, in addition to more than 9 million other procedures, every year.

For example, it screens patients for cancer, provides contraceptive care, tests people for sexually transmitted infections, conducts pregnancy tests and offers prenatal services. Abortions account for only 4% of all of Planned Parenthood’s services.

Conservative-led states are taking aim at the nonprofit with both litigation and legislation.

For example, the attorneys general of Missouri and Florida allege in 2025 lawsuits that Planned Parenthood’s website “lies” about the safety of mifepristone.

Planned Parenthood is not the only nonprofit that is accused of deceiving the public that way. In December 2025, the South Dakota attorney general sued Mayday Health, a reproductive health education nonprofit, alleging that its advertising in South Dakota violated a state law that bans “deceptive practices.”

In late January, after Mayday countersued in a federal court in New York, that court temporarily blocked South Dakota’s actions.

Other states are taking similar steps. Kentucky, which, like South Dakota, has a nearly complete ban on abortion, is investigating the legality of ads that Mayday Health posts at gas stations. The ads tell women how they can get help obtaining an abortion.

Undermining funding

Meanwhile, state and federal efforts to reduce Planned Parenthood’s funding are making headway.

In June 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Medina v. Planned Parenthood South Atlantic in favor of South Carolina’s attempt to bar its Medicaid program from reimbursing Planned Parenthood for health care services. That decision made it clear that any state may deny Medicaid funding for care provided by organizations, such as Planned Parenthood, that perform abortions.

Medicaid, the U.S. government’s health insurance program that primarily covers low-income people, is jointly funded by federal and state governments. About 1 in 10 women of reproductive age who received family planning services and are enrolled in Medicaid relied on Planned Parenthood’s services in 2021.
EG: Is it more accurate to say “… who in 2021 received family planning services and WERE enrolled in Medicaid relied on Planned Parenthood’s services”?

Under what’s known as the Hyde Amendment, federal Medicaid dollars may not be used to pay for abortions except in cases of life endangerment, rape or incest. States are free to use their own Medicaid dollars to pay for abortions, and some do so.

Shortly after the Supreme Court ruling, Congress passed a measure prohibiting federal Medicaid dollars from going to any clinics that perform abortions – such as Planned Parenthood.

A sign for more information about Medicaid is seen in a clinic's office.
A sign for more information about Medicaid is set up in the patient waiting area in the Greater Boston Health Center at Planned Parenthood League of Massachusetts on July 23, 2025.
Suzanne Kreiter/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

The provision, which bars reimbursement for all services, including those unrelated to abortion, was in the big tax-and-spending package that President Donald Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025. The defunding measure went into effect immediately, for one year, and applies to the whole country.

The provision is supposed to end in July 2026.

Due in part to the financial pressure that measure caused, Planned Parenthood says that dozens of its clinics around the country closed in 2025.

Planned Parenthood, as well as 22 states and Washington, D.C., challenged this provision in two lawsuits in a Massachusetts federal court.

The court granted Planned Parenthood’s request to dismiss its case in January 2026. The other case, brought by the states and Washington, D.C.’s local government, is still pending.

Trying to discredit mifepristone’s safety

Efforts to designate mifepristone as a dangerous drug began before the Food and Drug Administration approved its use in 2000. Abortion opponents have stepped up that campaign since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade with its Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling in 2022.

That same year, a group of doctors and medical associations opposed to abortion challenged the FDA’s approval of mifepristone and the guidelines governing its prescription.

In essence, they claimed that there was insufficient evidence demonstrating the drug’s safety, although it has been used by millions of people for more than 20 years. Several prominent medical associations, citing hundreds of peer-reviewed clinical studies and decades of evidence-based research, assert that the drug is “conclusively safe.”

Many studies have found that mifepristone is as safe as ibuprofen and safer than Viagra.

Ultimately, the Supreme Court rejected the lawsuit because the doctors did not have standing. That is, the physicians couldn’t show that they faced any clear and concrete harms from the FDA’s actions making mifepristone more widely available.

Packages of mifepristone tablets are displayed.
Packages of mifepristone tablets are displayed at a family planning clinic.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Arguing that the FDA made a mistake

But in 2024, the Missouri, Kansas and Idaho state governments were allowed to join the lawsuit, after they argued that they had standing.

The three states similarly claimed that the FDA acted improperly in 2016 as well as later, when it loosened the regulations around mifepristone, including allowing it to be prescribed via telehealth or mailed to patients.

While their case works its way through the courts, other states are questioning the FDA’s treatment of the drug.

In late 2024, Louisiana classified abortion pills as controlled substances, restricting their use more tightly than the FDA. In October 2025, the state went further, challenging the FDA’s loosened regulations, including its elimination of requirements that the pill be dispensed in person.

And in early December, Florida and Texas sued the FDA. Those states argue that its approval and regulation of mifepristone violated several federal laws, including one that gives the FDA authority to regulate drugs.

Revisiting safety findings

There are also regulatory threats to mifepristone’s availability because the Trump administration is reconsidering evidence regarding the drug’s safety.

In September 2025, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the FDA would conduct “its own review of the evidence,” including the drug’s “real-world outcomes and evidence, relating to the safety and efficacy.”

Kennedy referenced a report cited by 22 Republican state attorneys general that, according to Kennedy, indicates “potential dangers that may attend offering mifepristone without sufficient medical support or supervision.”

The report has not been peer-reviewed or published in a medical journal. Many experts describe it as “junk science.”

If the FDA were to find mifepristone unsafe or to further restrict how it’s prescribed, this could make it harder to get an abortion. While misoprostol, which is commonly prescribed for ulcer prevention, can be used alone for abortions, it is less effective and less safe than when it’s used in combination with mifepristone.

What happens next might take a while. Some efforts to end access to mifepristone appear to be on hold – for political rather than legal reasons.

FDA Commissioner Marty Makary told the officials working in his agency in December 2025 to delay their review of data concerning the safety of mifepristone “until after the midterm elections” in November 2026.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Federal and state authorities are taking a 2-pronged approach to make it harder to get an abortion – https://theconversation.com/federal-and-state-authorities-are-taking-a-2-pronged-approach-to-make-it-harder-to-get-an-abortion-271378

Bridgerton season four explores sexual and class power dynamics more than any season before

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Polina Zelmanova, PhD Candidate in Film and Television Studies, University of Warwick

One thing Bridgerton has unquestionably mastered is the depiction of sex. This season, women’s pleasure once again takes centre stage with several conversations about orgasms, or “pinnacles” and several references to past steamy scenes, including last season’s infamous carriage exchange.

Sex is everywhere. It spills out of every image, from every surface. The glistening chandeliers, colourful flower arrangements, lights and decoration all contribute to the horny mise-en-scene. The combination of framing, lighting, colour, performance and production design combine to create a sexy vibe.

Within such excess, small gestures take on a new erotic significance – a gentle kiss on the wrist, a touch of fingertips, a glance across the room. All of this contributes to a feminine model of desire that is multi-orgasmic, expanding pleasure across the screen rather than containing it to an individual sex scene. The fourth season of Bridgerton does not disappoint on this front.

This season’s central romance is inspired by the Cinderella trope, where class and social division are the main obstacles for the lovers. It raises a timely discussion of power, particularly pertinent to depictions of sex in a post #MeToo era.

A Cinderella story

This season focuses on the second eldest son, Benedict Bridgerton (Luke Thompson), and is so far adapted quite closely from Julia Quinn’s third Bridgerton novel An Offer from a Gentleman. Benedict is a self-proclaimed “lover of pleasure, a free spirit, untrammelled by mere convention”.

Pursuing a career as an artist, Benedict has come to be known as a bohemian of sorts. His queerness and ventures into non-monogamy are outside understandings of permissible relationships within Regency society. And, although it’s time for this rake to settle down, Benedict stays true to his rebellious nature.

Meeting at a masked ball, Benedict instantly falls for a charming and mysterious woman in silver. But when the clock strikes 12, she flees without revealing her identity, leaving behind only a satin glove and the traces of a passionate kiss that leaves them both in a state of perpetual yearning. And so, the “prince’s” quest for his mysterious maiden begins.

While Benedict is left love struck and confused, the mystery woman rushes home to assume her true identity as a maid. Despite the familiar setup, Sophie Baek (Yerin Ha) is wonderfully defiant and outspoken, aligning with a more modern tradition of Cinderellas that reject the original character’s subservience and passivity.

A glimpse below stairs

For the first time Bridgerton shows us the well-oiled machine of the servants’ quarters to which Sophie belongs. This season attempts a social critique of the class structures that, until this point, has remained peripheral.

From baking and cleaning to arranging secret sexual rendezvous for their employers, servants are seen as crucial to the opulent world we have experienced so far. So crucial, in fact, that when one house poaches a handful of vital servants, they set off what gossipmonger Lady Whistledown calls “the maid wars”. These poaching leave the ton (fashionable high society of Regency-era England) aflutter, with some houses poaching in turn and others becoming more appreciative of their labour.

This upstairs-downstairs glimpse contextualises the obstacles that this season’s couple face and the power dynamics that are at play.

When they meet again, unmasked, Benedict doesn’t recognise Sophie. Despite his loyalty to his mystery lady and the fact of Sophie being a maid, he falls in love anew – leaving him in a predicament.

“We must marry according to class, but we do not always love that way,” Benedict’s friend Will Mondrich tells him. Previously, his siblings Anthony and Eloise found themselves unsuccessful in their pursuit of relationships outside of their class. This is not a hopeful precedent for Benedict.

However, desire is hard to ignore and as their feelings grow hotter, the threat of scandal looms large. With the family reputation at stake and sisters still to wed, reality leaves him with no other option at the end of part one than to pop the critical question: “Will you be my mistress?”

Mistresses were women who had arrangements with wealthy and upper-class men, offering their sexual and social services in exchange for financial benefits and comfort. Despite potential privileges, these women were excluded from polite society and could never hope to legitimise their relationship through marriage, leaving them at the mercy of their “protector”.

A very indecent proposal indeed.

It also, sadly, brings things full circle. When Benedict re-meets Sophie, she is defending another maid from unwanted advances from their master. Her act of denial and defiance ends with both of their dismissals. Although Benedict saves her, securing her a job in his family home, and his advances are (somewhat) wanted, he ultimately puts her in a similar position.

The sexual encounter between the pair takes place on the staircase that separates the upstairs from downstairs, reminding us of the class conflict that is an obstacle to the longevity and legitimacy of their relationship.

Although Sophie is undeniably into Benedict, the wise housekeeper Mrs Crabtree warns Benedict that their difference in social station means that Sophie doesn’t really have the freedom to say no to him.

Benedict does not heed this warning and pushes on with his proposal, despite Sophie’s explicit statements about not wanting to risk the best job she’s ever had. With this proposal, his class power means he has everything to gain, and Sophie everything to lose. At the end of part one, Sophie is back where she started: the desires of a rich man threatening her stable employment and safety.

Although we see her reject Benedict’s offer, with part two still to come, Sophie is faced with the harsh reality of the limited options available to a woman of her stature when it comes to love. The question remains as to how the show will resolve this tension, and whether Sophie’s identity as an illegitimate heiress may be the secret ingredient to this Cinderella’s happy ending.


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The Conversation

Polina Zelmanova receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council to support the research undertaken as part of her PhD.

ref. Bridgerton season four explores sexual and class power dynamics more than any season before – https://theconversation.com/bridgerton-season-four-explores-sexual-and-class-power-dynamics-more-than-any-season-before-274997

Schools aren’t designed for autistic children – these are the sensory challenges they face

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Keren MacLennan, Lecturer in Psychology, University of Bath

Marina Chernivetskaya/Shutterstock

In the academic year so far, the proportion of children who are “persistently absent” from schools in England – missing at least 10% of school sessions – stands at 19.5%. This is up from last year – and significantly higher than the 10.5% who were persistently absent before the pandemic.

The UK government’s “back to school” call in 2025 proposed a crackdown on “bad behaviour” to address this issue and get children back into classrooms. But a focus on bad behaviour may be missing the mark. Research suggests that in the majority of cases, school absence is underpinned by severe school distress and anxiety. Even more alarming is that many of these children are autistic.

Our schools and education system have not been designed for autistic children, who have neurological or thinking styles that diverge from what society sees as typical.

Up to 94% of autistic people have divergent sensory processing. This means that sensory information, such as loud sounds, bright lights and strong scents, can be distressing and overwhelming. In busy classrooms, dining halls and playgrounds, children are exposed to an onslaught of unpredictable and inescapable sensory information that becomes overwhelming across the day. This has been reported as a key reason autistic children experience distress and anxiety in school.

Illustration of sensory challenges in schools including sounds, sights, touch, and smells.
Illustration of sensory challenges in schools.
Emily @21andsensory, CC BY-NC-ND

Here are the types of sensory information that autistic children tend to find more distressing, as well as some ways to support these challenges.

Sounds

Sudden and loud sounds, as well as environments with layers of different background noise, are commonly distressing for autistic people. Classrooms, dining halls and playgrounds have complex soundscapes with lots of chatter and noise from chairs and objects being moved about. There are also sudden sounds that can startle autistic children. These can include school bells, doors banging or teachers raising their voice or clapping to get the attention of pupils.

In research my colleagues and I carried out, autistic people, parents and teachers reported loud classrooms as the top contributor to school anxiety. But even in a quiet classroom, autistic children may struggle to filter out more subtle sounds, such as the buzzing from lights, clocks ticking, pens tapping and people whispering. These can also affect an autistic child’s ability to focus on their work.

Allowing children to listen to music with noise-cancelling headphones, use ear defenders or plugs, or sit somewhere quiet if the noise becomes overwhelming can help address these challenges.

Sights

Bright lighting, especially if it is artificial or fluorescent, can cause distress for autistic people. Classrooms and dining halls often have bright overhead lighting and children do not have the control to lower the lighting levels. Classroom walls are also often covered with busy display boards. This can cause distraction for all children, but especially autistic children.

This could be mitigated by allowing children to wear tinted glasses or to sit away from direct sunlight or bright overhead lighting.

Smells

Many autistic people can struggle with strong food smells, as well as cleaning products and perfumes. In schools, children can be exposed to food smells from canteens and packed lunches. There may also be a range of smells arising from peers and teachers, such as perfumes, coffee or body odour.

Having the option of a place to eat away from the canteen or large groups of other children could help autistic children cope with this.

Touch

Scratchy clothing fabrics and clothing labels are challenging for many autistic people. Mandatory school uniforms can cause distress for autistic children. They have limited choice in fabric and styles. Some elements of the uniform, such as blazers or school ties, may come with no choice at all.

Allowing some flexibility over clothing choices and cutting labels out of clothes could help here.

Making sensory-inclusive schools

Beyond individual support strategies, a range of steps can help make schools more sensory-inclusive. Providing flexible access to low-sensory spaces, such as rooms or dens, allows children to take breaks to recover from sensory information when they feel overwhelmed. In an ideal world, lighting and sound absorption would be improved, but at the very least sensory-inclusive design should be considered when new schools are being built.

There is also still widespread misunderstanding of autism and sensory challenges in schools. Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, declared in November 2025 that children wearing ear defenders in a classroom is “insane” and has “got to stop”. But these sensory aids are essential for some children to attend school. Implementing evidence-based training for school staff and pupils on neurodiversity and autism, as well as training on sensory-inclusive spaces, can increase understanding and acceptance.

Importantly, this issue spreads beyond our schools. Many spaces in our communities pose sensory challenges – creating barriers to vital services and affecting mental health. The sensory environment affects everyone, so by making spaces more sensory-inclusive for autistic people, we may also make spaces better for all.

The Conversation

Keren MacLennan has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and Research England.

ref. Schools aren’t designed for autistic children – these are the sensory challenges they face – https://theconversation.com/schools-arent-designed-for-autistic-children-these-are-the-sensory-challenges-they-face-273498

Tariffs might seem manageable now – but they’ll quietly squeeze households later

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Umair Choksy, Senior Lecturer in Management, University of Stirling

BearFotos/Shutterstock

For more than a year, major institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been warning that rising tariffs and policy uncertainty would stifle global growth. This is reflected in the ways governments have been deploying tariffs unpredictably. Notably, the US has increasingly deployed threats and sudden tariff swings as tools in broader disputes.

Recent global trade updates from the likes of UN Trade & Development (UNCTAD) suggest this uncertainty is not fading. This reinforces the sense that trade volatility has become a lasting feature in the world economy rather than a temporary shock.

Contrast this unsettling picture with the strength of global trade and economic growth. One WTO report has noted that global trade volumes grew strongly in the first half of 2025, and projects that it will have been even stronger in late 2025. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) similarly notes that the global economy has shown “resilience” to trade shocks, even as the damage from shifting policies is starting to appear in more recent data.

While some interpret this as proof that the global economy can simply shrug off trade shocks, others have issued a warning. The global economy only appears resilient to tariffs; in reality, short-term offsets such as changing suppliers or altering supply chains have masked damage that will surface later through slower growth, higher costs and declining living standards. Over time, this damage will show up in everyday life – in what people pay, how secure their jobs feel, and how far their wages stretch.

My research on resilience in global supply chains has found that it is not something that businesses can achieve once and then forget about. What is happening now is not resilience, but temporary adjustments.

Imagine a supermarket that suddenly faces higher import costs on fruit because of tariffs or trade restrictions. At first, it does not redesign its entire supply network. Instead, it might buy from a different country for a few months or dip into existing stock in warehouses or distribution centres.

But if costs and availability remain in doubt, these temporary fixes stop working. Stock runs out. Emergency suppliers cost more. And when margins are squeezed for long enough, businesses respond by raising prices, freezing hiring, cutting hours, delaying pay rises or shedding jobs altogether. This is why resilience must be understood as a continuous process.

The same logic applies at national level. For countries like the UK, resilience to changing trade conditions means maintaining the ability to adjust repeatedly without exhausting households through ongoing cost-of-living pressures, income volatility and prolonged uncertainty about jobs and pay.

But when politicians interpret trade shocks as short-lived (as happened in the wake of Brexit), they tend to delay intervention. This could be holding back sector-specific support, postponing investment or relying on firms to absorb costs. This shifts the burden down the chain. Businesses protect their margins by passing costs on, and households become the shock-absorbers.

Tariffs and inequality

One lesson from my research is that some regions and communities are far more sensitive to tariffs and trade friction than others. This has the potential to deepen regional inequality, concentrating job losses and price pressures in already vulnerable areas.

For example, London and the south-east are less exposed to the direct impact of tariffs than many other parts of the country because their economies are dominated by services and finance.

Regions with more manufacturing and exports – such as the West Midlands, east of England, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England – rely more heavily on goods that face tariff barriers, such as cars and machinery. This means employment and business incomes can be more directly affected.

Addressing this imbalance requires more than a one-size-fits-all approach to trade policy. I have found that what matters is helping regions (and businesses in those regions) build resilience in ways that match the kind of disruption they face.

In practice, this depends on how often and how hard they are hit by tariffs. In places where trade costs rise repeatedly, businesses need support that helps them to keep operating without cutting jobs or squeezing pay every time costs increase. That means access to finance, help with managing cost pressures, and support that allows employers to retain workers when margins tighten.

In regions where tariff shocks are less frequent but still disruptive (as has happened to the US itself in its trade war with China), businesses need early signals about where pressures are emerging, and government support when costs spike. Without targeted backing, businesses pass costs on in the easiest way possible – through higher prices, delayed wage rises or job losses. When government treats resilience as a national average, it risks overlooking those places where adjusting is hardest and most costly.

Global trade uncertainty is going to continue. As such, policy needs to be designed for endurance rather than optimism. That involves shifting the focus away from short-term trade volumes and towards reducing the pressure of repeated tariff adjustments before they reach households. That means acting earlier in regions and sectors repeatedly exposed to disruption, rather than waiting for rising prices and job losses to hit households.

The Conversation

Umair Choksy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Tariffs might seem manageable now – but they’ll quietly squeeze households later – https://theconversation.com/tariffs-might-seem-manageable-now-but-theyll-quietly-squeeze-households-later-274594

Bolivia’s ‘capitalism for all’ project sparks backlash for selling-out on natural resources

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Enrique Castañón Ballivián, Lecturer in International Development, UCL

Bolivia’s political landscape has changed dramatically since August 2025, when a general election ended the Movement for Socialism (Mas) party’s rule after nearly two decades. Its presence in Congress has all but vanished, with rightwing parties now commanding an overwhelming majority.

The new president, Rodrigo Paz Pereira, campaigned with the rightwing populist slogan: fé, familia y patria (faith, family and homeland). He swept to victory in large part due to the widespread popularity of his running mate and now vice-president, Edmand Lara.

As the son of former Bolivian president Jaime Paz Zamora, who led Bolivia from 1989 to 1993, Paz Pereira represents a new generation of the country’s traditional political elite. But Lara, a former police captain who has become prominent on social media since 2023, comes from the popular classes.

The unlikely pair benefited from a strong desire among the Bolivian people for change amid a severe economic crisis marked by a shortage of US dollars and annual inflation of nearly 20%. They also took advantage of widespread distrust of reticence towards politicians from previous governments.

In his November inaugural address, Paz Pereira denounced that Mas had left what he called an estado tranca (obstructing state). He pledged to replace it with a smaller, technocratic state capable of attracting foreign investment. This model of state reform is part of his broader neoliberal project of “capitalism for all”, an ill-defined entrepreneurial vision that celebrates informality.

Paz Pereira’s government soon revealed the contours of its economic and political agenda in Decree 5503. The decree included over 100 articles covering numerous issues such as fuel subsidies, taxes, emergency powers, resource governance and fiscal and monetary policy.

The government presented the decree almost exclusively as a measure to end longstanding fossil fuel subsidies. These subsidies, which were introduced in 1997, had become largely unsustainable with the decline of Bolivia’s gas exports since 2017. The decree ended the subsidies, replacing them with modest increments to the minimum salary and state pensions.

Other, more problematic elements of the decree that overlooked established procedures and the stipulations of Bolivia’s constitution were soon exposed. These included measures to grant the government emergency powers without the required justification, as well as major changes to the nationwide tax regime without legislative approval.

The decree also introduced extraordinary powers for the central bank to acquire limitless external debt without mechanisms of democratic control. And it established a “fast track” mechanism for the approval of contracts for the extraction of strategic natural resources. Contracts would be awarded without legislative oversight or the required processes of environmental impact assessment and informed consent of Indigenous people.

Such a “fast track” mechanism openly revived what was known as the entreguista character of the Bolivian state, which had historically been prevalent under elite rule. This is a term used throughout Latin America to criticise governments or policies perceived as giving away a country’s national interests by, for example, surrendering control of natural resources.

Bolivia is home to the world’s largest known lithium deposit in the department of Potosí, estimated at 23 million tonnes. Lithium is a critical component in the batteries that power electric vehicles and smartphones, as well as in high-tech weapons systems. Bolivia is also well-endowed with other critical minerals such as tin, silver and antimony.

Nationalist movements have fiercely opposed entreguista policies in Bolivia before. These movements have inspired major political events, including a revolution in 1952 that overthrew the ruling oligarchy.

They also led to the so-called water and gas wars in 2000 and 2003. These were periods of social unrest arising over government plans to privatise the water supply in the central city of Cochabamba and export natural gas through Chile, respectively.

As noted in 2006 by Tom Perreault, a researcher at Syracuse University in New York, Bolivian people see tin or gas “not only as natural resources, but as national resources as well, that is, resources that properly belong to the nation and its people”.

This sentiment was captured recently by Bolivian researcher Gustavo Calle. In an article published on January 13, he said that by suggesting strategic resources will be exploited by foreign companies without meaningful control, Decree 5503 touched “the most sensitive vein of the popular nationalism”.

Repealing the decree

Two days after the government published the decree on December 17, Bolivia’s main workers’ organisation, the Bolivian Workers’ Centre, declared a general strike. It asked its members to mobilise, demanding the abrogation of the decree.

Then, on January 5, the largest Indigenous organisations joined the protests. They paralysed the country with more than 50 road blockades. And a march named “Bolivia is not for sale” later entered the capital city of La Paz, bringing together numerous sectors of society.

Paz Pereira portrayed the leaders of the mobilisation as reckless individuals defending their own privileges. He also pledged not to back down against “criminals”. But after nearly 28 days of protests, the government finally conceded and abrogated the decree on January 11.

The government’s image has taken a hit. However, unlike the government during the gas war, its legitimacy has not been challenged. That period of unrest ultimately resulted in the resignation of President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada.

Paz Pereira’s defeat is also only partial. The elimination of the fossil fuel subsidies has now been consolidated. And the government is currently preparing a new authoritarian law to sanction road blockages as criminal offences.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Paz Pereira also sought to portray the popular opposition to his entreguista policies as being carried out by a mere minority of former Mas leader Evo Morales’ followers.

In the absence of an alternative political project, the new government appears to be in a strong position to impose its agenda. Yet the strength and explosive potential of resource nationalist sentiments in the country should not be discounted.

The Conversation

Enrique Castañón Ballivián does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Bolivia’s ‘capitalism for all’ project sparks backlash for selling-out on natural resources – https://theconversation.com/bolivias-capitalism-for-all-project-sparks-backlash-for-selling-out-on-natural-resources-275009