A Plan B for space? On the risks of concentrating national space power in private hands

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Johns Hopkins University

Commercial providers like SpaceX contract with NASA to fulfill the agency’s rocket launch needs. Bill Ingalls/NASA via AP

Private companies are no longer peripheral participants in U.S. space activities. They provide key services, including launching and deploying satellites, transporting cargo and astronauts to the International Space Station, and even sending landers to the Moon.

Commercial integration is now embedded in U.S. space policy and shapes national space strategy. As someone who studies space and international security, I have watched the extraordinary rise of commercial space with awe – and with growing concerns about the structural vulnerabilities it creates.

Access to space, particularly for crewed missions, remains heavily concentrated in one company, SpaceX. While the United States has begun developing alternatives, in operational reality that concentration gives the company disproportionate leverage. If private power and public strategy were to diverge, would Washington have a credible Plan B?

Commercial integration is now official policy

On Feb. 4, the House Science Committee approved the NASA Reauthorization Act of 2026, directing the agency to partner with American commercial providers for operations in low-Earth orbit, lunar landings and the transition beyond the International Space Station. In critical areas such as lunar landers, the bill requires NASA to work with at least two commercial providers – a deliberate effort to avoid dependence on a single company.

President Donald Trump’s December 2025 executive order expressed similar preference for prioritizing commercial solutions in federal space activities and set a goal of attracting at least US$50 billion in additional private investment in space by 2028. The U.S. Space Force’s 2024 Commercial Space Strategy also emphasizes speed and innovation through private partnerships.

Congress, the White House and the military are aligned: The government sets objectives, then private industry builds – and increasingly operates – the space systems. This shift has been bipartisan and explicit, and it has delivered results.

From cost savings to structural dominance

Its origins trace back to a moment of vulnerability.

After the retirement of the space shuttle in 2011, the United States temporarily lost independent human spaceflight capability. For nearly a decade, NASA relied on Russian Soyuz spacecraft, paying up to $80 million per astronaut seat, roughly $4 billion in total.

NASA responded by turning deliberately to commercial providers through the commercial crew and commercial resupply programs. The goal was pragmatic: to reduce costs, restore domestic launch capability and accelerate innovation. Under these programs, NASA provided funding and oversight while companies built and operated their own systems.

It worked.

Launch costs fell by almost 70% in some cases. The pace of launches increased.

SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, became central to this new architecture. Its Falcon 9 rocket now carries the majorityfive of every six – of U.S. launches to orbit. Since 2020, its Crew Dragon spacecraft has also routinely transported NASA astronauts, restoring the U.S.’s ability to launch people to orbit after a 10-year gap.

The top of a rocket with a conical capsule mounted on its tip.
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule mounted on top of a Falcon 9 rocket. Dragon carries astronauts to the International Space Station.
Paul Hennessy/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

In high-risk and capital-intensive space sectors such as launch and crewed transport, the development costs are enormous. Few companies can afford to compete. The company that makes reliable rockets first, and at a large scale, like SpaceX, wins contracts and consolidates its market share.

Efficiency and consolidation have given SpaceX dominance. This dominance, in turn, creates leverage – not because the company acts in bad faith but because alternatives are limited.

Market concentration is not inherently problematic. But strategic infrastructure – such as the access to space that underpins military operations, communications and critical national systems – is not a normal consumer market. When a single company controls most launches or operates the only crewed spacecraft, its financial troubles, technical setbacks or leadership disputes can disrupt the entire country’s strategic capabilities.

A table showing 3 columns: dimension, efficiency model and redundancy model. It compares the two models on cost, speed, structure, shock absorption and risk.
An efficiency model can maximize short-term performance, but it may leave the sector vulnerable to disruption if the leading player faces issues. A resilience model preserves the country’s long-term sovereignty.
Svetla Ben-Itshak and The Conversation U.S.

The Musk episode as a warning

In 2025, during a public dispute over government contracts and regulatory matters, Elon Musk briefly threatened to decommission the Dragon spacecraft – the vehicle NASA relies on to transport astronauts to orbit.

Musk quickly backed off his threat, and missions continued. No astronauts were stranded, but the moment was revealing.

At the time, Boeing’s Starliner capsule still faced technical delays. There was no fully operational alternative ready to assume the mission immediately. Even a short-lived threat exposed how tightly U.S. access to space had become linked to the stability of a single firm – and arguably a single individual.

Elon Musk standing in front of a vehicle with a 'SpaceX' decal.
SpaceX founder Elon Musk has grown more directly involved in politics since 2024. He once threatened to decommission his company’s Crew Dragon craft, which at the time NASA relied on for operations at the International Space Station.
AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes

So, is there a Plan B?

A credible Plan B for space does not mean abandoning commercial partnerships. It means ensuring that alternatives exist.

Historically, assured access to space has meant having more than one way to reach orbit. Today, that principle extends to crew transport, lunar logistics, satellite services and data infrastructure.

Congress appears aware of this. The current NASA reauthorization bill requires the agency to diversify providers in key programs, particularly lunar landers. The intent is to build redundancy deliberately into the system, making it more resilient to potential shocks.

But redundancy is expensive. Maintaining parallel systems, supporting multiple providers and preserving internal government expertise require long-term funding and political commitment. Markets alone likely will not guarantee diversification in these expensive sectors.

In February 2026, Congress moved to legislate greater diversification into U.S. space strategy. The intent is clear, but the timeline is not. It remains uncertain when, or if, the bill will become law.

For now, U.S. access to space, particularly for crewed missions, remains heavily reliant on SpaceX. Plan B exists on paper, but in reality it is still under construction.

Strategic permanence in space requires options

The stakes will only grow.

As the United States expands into cislunar space – the region between Earth and the Moon – and looks to establish a sustained presence on the Moon, its reliance on commercial providers will deepen.

Commercial dynamism has revitalized American leadership in space, but it has also revealed structural vulnerabilities. Durable systems rarely depend on a single center of power. In Federalist No. 51, James Madison, the fourth U.S. President, argued that stable political orders require competing forces so that “ambition must be made to counteract ambition.” His insight was political, but the logic can apply. Economic resilience emerges from balance, not concentration.

The United States has chosen a commercial path in space, and that choice has delivered extraordinary gains. But permanence beyond Earth will require a deliberate balance: multiple providers for critical services, overlapping capabilities, and alternatives robust enough to absorb shocks.

Commercial space can underpin American leadership in the new space age, but only if access to orbit, and beyond, never rests on a single, indispensable company.

The Conversation

Svetla Ben-Itzhak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A Plan B for space? On the risks of concentrating national space power in private hands – https://theconversation.com/a-plan-b-for-space-on-the-risks-of-concentrating-national-space-power-in-private-hands-275618

Are heroes born or made? Role models and training can prepare ordinary people to take heroic action

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Catherine A. Sanderson, Poler Family Professor of Psychology, Amherst College

Do you have what it takes to be a hero in the moment? Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Three young Americans – Anthony Sadler, Alek Skarlatos and Spencer Stone – successfully tackled a gunman on a train in France, saving passengers.

The journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna reported on Ukrainian citizens held unlawfully by Russia; she was captured and died in detention in Russia.

Welles Crowther, often known as the “man in the red bandana,” was a 24-year-old equities trader who guided numerous people in the South Tower on 9/11 to safety before ultimately dying when the tower collapsed.

All of these people are clearly heroes. They engaged in courageous behavior – and risked physical peril – to benefit others or in service of a broader moral cause.

Psychologists like me describe heroes as people who take some type of intentional action to help other people, even when they may experience a personal cost for doing so. As Stanford psychology professor Phil Zimbardo put it, heroism involves taking a personal risk for the common good.

In some cases, people who take these risks experience potentially negative social consequences such as disapproval, ostracism and career setbacks. I describe people who show moral courage, meaning they are willing to speak up even when they may incur such costs, as moral rebels. Moral rebels are willing to take actions like tell a bully to cut it out, call out a friend who uses a racist slur, or report a colleague who engages in corporate fraud.

But when people think about heroism, they often focus on physical courage, such as jumping into a frozen pond to rescue a drowning child, leaping onto subway tracks to help someone who has fallen, or grabbing a gun from a shooter. What enables someone to engage in this type of physically risky – even life-threatening – behavior?

The characteristics of a hero

People tend to think of heroes as having particular traits: fearlessness, bravery, strength and altruism, along with selflessness, wisdom and resilience. Does the empirical research match up with that common conception?

Researchers in one study compared personality traits among three different groups of non-Jewish adults who lived during the time of the Holocaust: those who had rescued at least one Jewish person, those who had provided no help, and those who left Europe before the start of World War II. Their findings provide clear evidence that heroes stand out in important ways.

People who risked their own lives to help Jewish people scored higher on risk-taking, meaning they felt more comfortable with danger. They also scored higher on independence and perceived control; they felt comfortable making a decision and then taking action. They also rated higher in traits expressing concern about others, including altruism, empathy and social responsibility.

close-up of man's face holding up a ribbon medal in the foreground
Governments commend everyday people who act heroically, like Canadian Medal of Bravery recipient Robert Walsh, a teacher who stopped a vicious physical attack.
Jim Wilkes/Toronto Star via Getty Images

Although the Holocaust is obviously a unique situation, other research on heroic behavior reveals a similar constellation of traits. For example, one study compared the traits of people who had received the Canadian Medal of Bravery – a national award given to people who have risked their own lives to save another person – to a control group of people who were similar in demographic characteristics. The researchers found that people who engaged in heroism shared particular traits, including greater confidence in their ability to act, a stronger ability to put themselves in someone else’s shoes, and more positive feelings toward other people.

These findings reveal that heroism is at least in part determined by who you are, and that it’s not just a single trait that matters. People who engage in various types of bravery tend to show a particular combination of traits. They feel comfortable taking action even when it involves danger and they feel compassion for other people.

The power of modeling

Although some people may have a greater predisposition to heroism based on their personality, situational factors also play a key role in inspiring heroic behavior.

One study by sociologists examined what motivated members of the majority Hutu population to risk their own lives to help members of the Tutsi population during the 1984 genocide in Rwanda. This analysis of in-depth interviews with people who reported saving at least one person from this violence – often by hiding someone in their own home – identified several key factors predicting their behavior.

First, one of the strongest predictors of whether people helped refugees was having parents or grandparents who had done so during previous episodes of violence in their country. As one man noted, he chose to act because of “what my parents had done in previous years.” People who have seen physical courage modeled by others are more likely to act in heroic ways.

This is strikingly similar to what motivated heroism in Nazi Germany. Historian Mark Klempner’s study of Dutch people who rescued Jewish children revealed that nearly all reported having a parent or relative who had consistently gone out of their way to help other people in different contexts.

Perhaps not surprisingly, religious beliefs also played a role in motivating heroic behavior during the Rwandan genocide. More than half of those in the study who rescued people mentioned the role that their faith played in this decision.

The third factor motivating this type of heroic behavior was social ties. People were far more likely to help friends or neighbors. These personal connections likely fostered greater empathy for people in need, which in turn motivated action, even when doing so created considerable risk.

The role of training

Although people with particular personality traits may have an easier time being brave, as do those whose relatives who modeled such behavior, heroism can also be acquired through training, which is good news for us all. People who take CPR classes, for example, know they have the skills necessary to step up during health emergencies and are therefore more likely to do so.

Two of those three American men who stopped a man with an assault rifle on a train had some type of military training; one served in the Air Force, and another served in the National Guard. Military training is designed precisely to help people become brave – so they can take action, even at great personal risk.

Realizing that heroes can be built through training led psychology researcher Phil Zimbardo to create the Heroic Imagination Project, which focuses on helping people develop the skills needed to step up and act heroically – whether defending what’s right in a work meeting or intervening with a bully at school. For example, children who participate in heroism training become more courageous, suggesting that anyone can learn to be braver.

Most importantly, this approach is based in the belief that heroism does not require a unique set of personality traits; instead, heroism occurs when ordinary people choose to step up in dangerous situations, even when doing so involves considerable risk.

As Matt Langdon, the executive director of the Heroic Imagination Project, notes, “the opposite of a hero is not a villain, but a bystander.”

The Conversation

Catherine A. Sanderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Are heroes born or made? Role models and training can prepare ordinary people to take heroic action – https://theconversation.com/are-heroes-born-or-made-role-models-and-training-can-prepare-ordinary-people-to-take-heroic-action-274505

The inspiring and tragic story of Mabel Stark, America’s most famous female tiger trainer

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Alessandro Meregaglia, Associate Professor and Archivist, Boise State University

Mabel Stark tamed tigers – and even wrestled with them. Circus and Allied Arts Collection, Illinois State University’s Special Collections, Milner Library

For the sharpest minds in show business, there’s always another hustle.

Take Joe Exotic, whose 2020 conviction for a murder-for-hire plot and violations of the Endangered Species Act hasn’t kept the eccentric tiger trainer out of the headlines.

Since beginning his 21-year sentence, the “Tiger King” star has started a cannabis brand, hawked digital art and begun work on an album tentatively titled “Jungle Rhapsody: A Tiger King Experience.” His most recent gambit involves selling personal phone calls from his cell – “What better Valentines gift could you ever get your loved one,” he posted on Instagram in January 2026.

But before Joe Exotic, there was Mabel Stark. Often described as America’s most famous female tiger trainer, the Tiger Queen was renowned for her pluck and charisma.

While researching Caxton Printers, the publisher of Stark’s autobiography, I came across unpublished archival material about Stark’s long career training animals. Like Joe Exotic, Stark had a knack for the spotlight. But even more impressively, she did it under the scrutiny of being a woman in a male-dominated world, while caring for her animals with love rather than fear.

From nurse to tiger trainer

Born Mary Ann Haynie in 1888 or 1889 – the exact year has always been a mystery – Stark grew up in Princeton, Kentucky. When she was 8 years old, she attended her first circus, where she was awed by the performances of trained animals.

Two decades would pass before she got a chance to try her hand at animal training.

Taking a vacation in California from her job as a nurse, Stark met Al Sands, manager of the Al G. Barnes Circus. After learning of her interest in training animals, he hired her on the spot.

Stark started by riding horses and training goats. It would take several years before she started working with tigers. But once she did, her career took off.

Crowds gathered to watch the “Tiger Girl” wrestle with big cats and wow audiences by commanding a dozen tigers at a time to follow her lead. Her wrestling act with her favorite tiger, Rajah – in which the duo would roll three or four times on the ground – became one of the best-known cat acts in the U.S.

She leveraged that success to join the Ringling Circus – the largest circus in the U.S. – for twice the pay.

As her popularity grew, Stark collaborated with screenwriter Gertrude Orr to write her life’s story.

Hold That Tiger” hit bookstores in 1938. Caxton Printers, a small publishing company in rural Idaho, issued the book and marketed it primarily to young readers. It proved popular, selling well enough to warrant multiple reprintings.

Known for giving a voice to first-time writers and authors from underrepresented groups, Caxton Printers found a niche market for circus-related titles. It also published books about Stark’s first employer, Al Barnes, as well as the Ringling Brothers and renowned lion trainer Louis Roth, who also happened to be one of Stark’s ex-husbands.

Female power in the ring

Stark was acutely aware of the path she was paving.

“I deliberately chose a field in which no other woman had specialized,” she wrote in her autobiography.

The conventional wisdom at the time, she added, was that “tigers were considered too dangerous for a woman to handle.”

Stark’s willingness to defy convention mattered. As circus historian Janet M. Davis noted, “circus women’s performances celebrated female power” and represented “a startling alternative to contemporary social norms.”

In early-20th-century American life, women might not have been able to vote or to serve on juries in most states, but in the ring, they commanded the audience’s attention riding bareback on horses, displaying strength and stamina, and performing gravity-defying acrobatic feats.

Stark’s schedule was relentless. She performed almost daily with traveling circuses, and she continually refined her act. In 1938, she worked with both tigers and lions at the same time, a first for a female trainer. She made history again working with 12 tigers in one cage.

A woman stands to the right of a tiger balancing on a chair with its front paws. In the background, a row of big cats pose on ledges.
Mabel Stark was able to work with 12 tigers in one cage.
Cinema Libre Studios

Whether it was due to the demands of her schedule or her preference for her cats, Stark’s relationships with men rarely worked out.

Over the course of her life, Stark married four times, three of which ended in divorce.

“I love these big cats as a mother loves her children,” she admitted to a friend. But “with husbands I was never happy.”

‘An animal trainer can’t have nerves’

Stark, aware of other trainers’ abusive behavior toward their tigers, took a different route.

“Kindness and patience are the biggest factors in training. … Trainers who try to beat animals into submission always get into trouble,” she said.

Yet her trade was not without danger.

“An animal trainer can’t have nerves. I haven’t had any since I gave up nursing,” she said in a 1922 New York Times interview. “They may be planting violets on me tomorrow, but while I have my health and strength, I’d rather take care of 10 tigers than a sick person.”

Stark had several serious accidents. Perhaps the worst was in 1928: After a circus train arrived late, Stark started her act without realizing her tigers hadn’t been fed for 24 hours. Two famished tigers attacked Stark after she fell in mud.

“As I lay there, helpless,” she wrote, “I wondered into how many pieces I would be torn, and how long it would take for the other tigers, growling and snarling restlessly on their seats, to finish me.” She suffered multiple broken bones, nearly lost her leg and required 300 stitches.

Woman holds a cup of tea while lying in a hospital bed.
Mabel Stark recovers in a Los Angeles hospital after her left arm was bitten by a tiger in 1935.
AP Photo/LMM

Another incident took place in 1950, when a tiger mauled her as she reached for its cub. Doctors initially thought they would have to amputate her arm but managed to save it.

Despite these close calls with her tigers, Stark maintained that “I am not afraid. I like the challenge of their roaring defiance.”

The stark reality

Stark toured with circuses until the late 1940s, when she was hired by Jungleland, a zoo located outside of Los Angeles.

Save for the three-and-a-half years she lived in Japan touring with her wild cat act, she spent the last 20 years of her career at Jungleland.

Stark never stopped drawing crowds to her show, nor did she shy away from the spotlight. She even appeared on the game show “What’s My Line?” in 1961 as a contestant whose profession the panel had to guess.

“Each year has left scars on my body, but it has also brought a full measure of happiness,” she recalled.
Stark worked at Jungleland until she was fired in 1967 after the park’s insurance company stopped covering her. Being away from her tigers devastated her, and she died by suicide just months later on April 20, 1968, at her home in Thousand Oaks.

The concluding paragraph of Stark’s autobiography anticipates the end of her life:

“The chute door opens as I crack my whip and shout, ‘Let them come!’ Out slink the striped cats, snarling and roaring, leaping at each other or at me. It’s a matchless thrill, and life without it is not worth while to me.”

The Conversation

Alessandro Meregaglia has received funding from the Idaho Humanities Council, the Bibliographical Society of America, and Boise State’s Institute for Advancing American Values for his research on Caxton Printers.

ref. The inspiring and tragic story of Mabel Stark, America’s most famous female tiger trainer – https://theconversation.com/the-inspiring-and-tragic-story-of-mabel-stark-americas-most-famous-female-tiger-trainer-276570

Formerly incarcerated Black men say they’re ‘doing OK’ while trying to cope with depression and PTSD

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Helena Addison, Postdoctoral Fellow, Yale University

Community-based walk-in clinics and behavioral health centers can help men returning from jail or prison find support. Jacob Wackerhausen/iStock via Getty Images Plus

“People can assess me, interview me, incarcerate me, observe me, and they can think they know what I need,” said Shawn, a man in his early 50s who spent 15 years in and out of prison. “And that can be an educated assessment, but at the end of the day, I live inside of this body, inside of this head. I know what I need.”

Shawn is one of 29 formerly incarcerated Black men living in Philadelphia I interviewed as part of my research on coping with the mental health effects of imprisonment. His name and the names of other people quoted in this article are pseudonyms chosen to protect their privacy.

I study incarceration, mental health and access to health care. I’ve previously written about how confinement in jails and prisons leaves a lasting impact on mental health. But I also wanted to understand how the men I interviewed recognized and addressed their own mental health needs — through coping strategies, conversations with friends and family, and seeking mental health treatment.

Depressed but ‘doing OK’

Both research and clinical practice often fail to accurately capture how formerly incarcerated Black men identify their own mental health needs. That’s in part because implicit bias and anti-Black racism shape how mental health is assessed and treated in both correctional and community facilities.

Most of the men I spoke with said the mental health evaluations they received while incarcerated were designed only to “check the boxes” and conveyed a sense that no one really cared.

“They’d listen. They’d ask the pertinent questions,” Malcolm, 62, explained. “Then they’d talk down to you. And then they forget all about you.”

A few of the men received diagnoses they didn’t understand or believe. John, 29, described how a judge ordered him to have a mental health evaluation and that he was diagnosed as having post-traumatic stress disorder.

“I didn’t take it serious,” he said. “I didn’t start understanding mental health and believing it until I was locked up for a long period of time. I started reading up on it and studying it. …That’s how I started understanding therapy was important.”

Comparing the way participants described their mental health in their own words during the interviews with standardized screening tools revealed an important pattern. Most described themselves as “good,” “blessed,” “at peace” or “doing OK.” Yet nearly all reported symptoms of depression, anxiety or PTSD.

More than half reported three or more PTSD symptoms, such as trauma-related nightmares or feeling constantly on guard and easily startled.

These findings underscore that what appears to be resilience or well-being on the surface may mask underlying mental health needs, and the way those needs are expressed is shaped by culture and life experiences.

Young Black man wearing brown sweatshirt looks thoughtfully out of a window.
An appearance of resilience may mask underlying mental health needs.
Maskot/Maskot Collection via Getty Images

Coping mechanisms

Participants described self-reliance as essential to coping with incarceration and life after release. Physical separation from family and community, along with strained relationships and limited resources after release, left many feeling like they had to manage mental distress on their own.

“When you’re in prison, you learn to depend on yourself,” Ken, 56, said.

Some said incarceration reinforced existing coping strategies they’d had, such as exercising, praying, journaling, reading and meditation.

“I was always into being active,” said Tay, 31, who took part in a military-style bootcamp while incarcerated. “I learned how to use [exercise] to cope with my emotions.”

Others were introduced to new coping skills through educational, vocational and recreational programs inside their correctional facilities. Men spoke about how earning GEDs, taking college courses, learning trades and participating in other structured programs helped them manage stress and connect with others.

Unfortunately, the availability of such programs is limited.

Bottled-up feelings

Many of my study’s participants described wanting to “do things differently” after incarceration by expressing their emotions rather than suppressing them.

Some directly connected bottling up feelings to behaviors that had led to their incarceration.

“[You’ve] let a lot of stuff build up and then [you’ll] go outside and lash out on the first person you see,” David, 30, explained. “I’m getting more comfortable with expressing myself, whether it’s to my mom or if it’s to a friend.”

But finding the right people to confide in could be difficult.

“I try to express myself every day. People laugh and make a joke out of it,” Shakur, 21, said. “If I had somebody sitting one-on-one, talking to me about my problems, I’d feel better.”

Navigating romantic relationships was also difficult.

“We come back to them broken. And they trying to fix us, but they don’t know how to fix us. They’re broken too,” said Thomas, 44.

Mass incarceration doesn’t just fracture individuals – it erodes romantic relationships, as those left behind often navigate their own economic strain, limited resources and emotional distress.

Participants emphasized that speaking with people who shared similar experiences made it easier to express themselves and helped them navigate moments of distress.

Deep distrust of institutions

Many participants expressed deep distrust of mental health treatment within correctional facilities.

“Being a Black man living to 62 years old, I don’t trust the government from the Tuskegee experiment to the thing they had going on in Holmesburg prison,” said Carl. “How can you put your trust in that?”

Older Black man in suit stands at presidential podium while grey-haired white man claps hands behind him
Herman Shaw, 94, shown here with former President Bill Clinton in 1997, was one of nearly 400 Black men who were part of a government study that began in 1932. The participants were told that they were being treated for syphilis, but they were actually given a placebo.
Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images

The Tuskegee study was a research study conducted by the U.S. federal government from 1932 to 1972. It followed Black men with syphilis but withheld effective treatment, even after the cure was made widely available in the 1940s. This caused preventable suffering and deaths.

During the Holmesburg Prison experiments, conducted at a Philadelphia prison from the 1950s through the 1970s, University of Pennsylvania researchers tested pharmaceuticals and chemicals on incarcerated men, many of them Black, without adequate informed consent.

Some of the men I interviewed also reported experiencing or witnessing mistreatment after reporting mental health concerns, and they expressed fears that seeking help while incarcerated would lead to punishment rather than support.

Stigma and seeking help

After release, participants shared concerns that they would be seen as “weak” by their peers for talking about their problems. This mental health stigma served as a barrier to seeking treatment.

“It’s not normal for guys like us, as far as being Black, African American, to reach out to a therapist,” said David.

Some men, like Antonio, who described feeling “like walls was closing in on me,” were motivated to seek treatment due to significant mental distress. Others were driven by a desire to improve their relationships with their wives or children.

Nearly 70% of participants had used formal mental health services at some point. Some were mandated to receive treatment, while others sought help voluntarily – sometimes at local walk-in clinics and behavioral health centers such as Wedge Recovery Centers, a Philadelphia staple that was mentioned by several participants but closed in May 2025 due to financial losses.

Communities can work together to reduce stigma around seeking mental health support and formal treatment, take expressions of mental distress from formerly incarcerated men seriously, and create spaces where they feel safe being vulnerable.

Participants named visible, neighborhood clinics with walk-in behavioral health services as places they felt able to go in moments of need. Increasing the visibility of these services, conducting outreach and integrating formerly incarcerated men as peer navigators can help build trust.

Read more of our stories about Philadelphia, or sign up for our Philadelphia newsletter on Substack.

The Conversation

Helena Addison received funding from National Institute of Nursing Research of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number F31NR020434, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration and American Nurses Association Minority Fellowship Program, the University of Pennsylvania’s Presidential PhD Fellowship, and Jonas Philanthropies to support this study and/or her PhD training.

ref. Formerly incarcerated Black men say they’re ‘doing OK’ while trying to cope with depression and PTSD – https://theconversation.com/formerly-incarcerated-black-men-say-theyre-doing-ok-while-trying-to-cope-with-depression-and-ptsd-275071

What is happiness? A philosopher looks for answers

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Anné H. Verhoef, Professor in Philosophy, North-West University

When we seek happiness, what exactly are we searching for? And when we wish happiness on someone else, what is it that we truly desire for them?

Can happiness even be defined or is it an illusion, an impossible desire to fulfil? So then why are there so many happiness self-help books? What do they promise and can they be attained? Is it possible to measure happiness? If so, how do ordinary people and scientists do that?

To answer these questions, I explored different definitions of happiness in my book Happiness, Unhappiness, and Chance. The book is based on my PhD study in philosophy.

Happiness today is narrowly defined by some positive psychologists as a joyous state of mind or well-being.

The happiness sciences see it as something you can calculate and quantify. They developed a Happiness Index and the World Happiness Report. These basically measure happiness as satisfaction, with criteria like gross domestic product per capita (money) and life expectancy (health) as some of the factors considered.

But happiness is also defined by our capitalist, consumer-driven society as certain aspirational products, brands and lifestyles. These consumerist definitions are often exaggerated by influencers on social media, but also through the manipulation of consumers by the online algorithms behind the digital tools we use. Increasingly, this also happens through artificial intelligence.

All these different definitions of happiness create their own problem for happiness. In fact they can lead to more unhappiness than happiness.

Joy and pleasure are often short-lived and unsustainable; well-being can quickly be ruined by illness and fate; owning certain brands, products and lifestyles exposes us to the trap of the “hedonistic treadmill,” which causes one “to rapidly and inevitably adapt to good things by taking them for granted”.




Read more:
How much money do you need to be happy? Here’s what the research says


Happiness that’s reduced to a single and simple definition does not consider the complexity of being human, of the societies we live in, and the fragile relationship we have with the environment.

My book searches for a more inclusive and encompassing definition of happiness. A happiness that is more than just joy or well-being, more than an ethical or good life. More than just good and meaningful human relationships. More than just luck, the absence of pain or a by-product of consumption. More than just a meaningful, fulfilled and content life.

I wanted to find out if a better understanding of happiness can be formed and actually achieved. One that considers all cultures and also factors like justice and caring for each other and the environment.

Can this kind of understanding of happiness, I wondered, not be a powerful motivation to live and work for a better future for all?

Consumerism

To explore the potential of such a philosophical understanding of happiness, we first need to understand why the current dominant definitions of happiness don’t work anymore.

Today, consumerism and capitalism are the forces behind the digital technologies that manipulate our understanding of happiness. Consumerism, with its “you-must-have-this-or-that-to-be-happy” approach, became so powerfully enforced through today’s digital platforms that it became a question of whether we can still envision, hope, and live for something more than what the algorithmic ecologies we live in present to us.

Happiness sciences

Happiness sciences, as the power behind happiness within our contemporary global happiness culture, proclaim that happiness is something one must work for and must achieve. Happiness itself is becoming so all-consuming that it is like a new religion. US historian Darrin McMahon describes the situation thus:

At the dawn of the modern age, God was happiness; happiness has since become our God.

Consequently, happiness becomes and remains an exhausting and impossible task which paradoxically makes one more unhappy. In this process people give up on happiness and may even become cynical due to this impossible pressure to be happy in a certain way.

Religion

Globally, the strongest power behind certain forms of happiness, especially as “true and eternal” happiness, is religion.

The type of happiness some religions offer is one where the ideal is that unhappiness should be overcome or will be in an afterlife. Some religions teach that true happiness can only be achieved in the afterlife, in heaven or nirvana, for example. They proclaim it is impossible to find true happiness in this world, or in the here and now.




Read more:
Why leisure matters for a good life, according to Aristotle


It is a happiness where this life is not fully affirmed because happiness can’t be attained. It is still to come. In effect it is not only giving up on the possibility of happiness, but on “true” goodness and beauty in daily life.

Philosophy

As alternative to these problematic understandings of happiness, and the different driving forces behind them, I used well-known French philosopher Paul Ricoeur’s thinking to guide me. He argued that happiness should and could not be defined as the overcoming of unhappiness. Such an attempt will always be futile. It denies unhappiness as part of the fundamental reality and fullness of life, and leaves us with an impossible and unhappy task. Happiness and unhappiness are always in relation to each other, and the one does not mean the annihilation of the other.




Read more:
Lifetime trends in happiness change as misery peaks among the young – new research


Secondly, the relationship between happiness and unhappiness is situated within our fragile ability to work for happiness. Yet, at the same time, to be aware that receiving happiness is not just hard work but can be a result of chance. Unhappiness can be in the form of unexpected tragedy.

The tension between striving for happiness and receiving happiness unexpectedly should remain. We should continue to work at contributing to our own and others’ happiness. But if we try to always be in control we will become exhausted. So we should also keep on allowing space for chance – as luck and tragedy – in our lives.

Why this matters

The ability to think and dream again about a different kind of happiness, one that is connected to our lives (not the technological world of the present), our desires (not those manipulated by consumerism), and the needs of the world – which includes unhappiness and injustice – has become increasingly important today.

We need better definitions of happiness in a world where the term is constantly corrupted and used by consumerism, politicians, prosperity evangelicals, the self-help industry, and in algorithmic technologies.

Such happiness should be able to affirm our lives, here and now. Such affirmation will become more important as our lives are more manipulated and controlled by technology and consumerism.

I argue in my study that this affirmation of life allows for a happiness that can include and respond to unhappiness and chance. Life itself is one thing we should not give up on; otherwise, happiness will also become irrelevant.

The Conversation

Anné H. Verhoef does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What is happiness? A philosopher looks for answers – https://theconversation.com/what-is-happiness-a-philosopher-looks-for-answers-276091

Public defender shortage is leading to hundreds of criminal cases being dismissed

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Georges Naufal, Associate Research Scientist, Public Policy Research Institute, Texas A&M University

New York City Council member Rory Lancman is surrounded by public defenders at a 2018 press conference, where he demanded the prohibition of ICE arrests in all courthouses except when authorized by a judicial warrant. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images

The Oregon Supreme Court on Feb. 5, 2026, issued a ruling that will have a wide impact. More than 1,400 criminal cases had to be dismissed, the justices ruled, due to lack of adequate counsel available for defendants.

Like other states, Oregon must provide defendants with legal representation if they cannot afford attorneys on their own. But Oregon has less than one-third of the attorneys it needs to provide adequate defense for indigents, or people who can’t afford counsel on their own.

Shortages of this scope are common around the country. Pennsylvania faces a similar shortage of about 30% of the public defenders it needs, with insufficient numbers of attorneys in nearly every county. New Mexico needs 67% more attorneys to provide effective counsel. Kansas needs 277 more public defenders, or roughly triple its current number.

As public policy researchers who study legal defense issues, we believe it’s clear that such shortages have repercussions throughout the criminal justice system.

Without enough lawyers providing indigent defense, defendants sit in jail longer, plead without guidance and risk wrongful convictions. Prosecutors face delays in clearing their cases. Court dockets slow, costs rise and public trust declines.

In other words, indigent defense shortages harm not only defendants but the justice system as a whole.

Rights to an attorney

The Sixth Amendment guarantees individuals facing criminal charges the right to defense counsel, at government expense if required. This right was clarified by a landmark Supreme Court case in 1963, Gideon v. Wainwright. The court ruled that states are required to provide attorneys to defendants who cannot afford an attorney.

About 80% to 90% of state defendants and more than 90% of federal defendants cannot afford a lawyer. The exact rate varies by state, year and type of charge, but it generally falls well above 50% of all criminal cases.

A woman wags her finger while addressing a man at close range.
Public defender Gordon Weekes, right, represented Nikolas Cruz, who was convicted in 2022 for a mass shooting in Parkland, Fla., four years earlier.
South Florida Sun Sentinel/Amy Beth Bennett via AP

Fulfilling the promise made in Gideon often falls to public defenders and private lawyers appointed by courts. Sixty-three years after the decision, the pool of lawyers willing to fulfill this promise is rapidly shrinking, aging and is overburdened, with lawyers sometimes working without pay.

Texas reflects this national problem. There are too few lawyers handling too many cases, putting the whole criminal justice system at risk. In a research report for the Texas Indigent Defense Commission, our team at Texas A&M University found that the state lost 1,345 attorneys who had been handling indigent defense cases between 2014 and 2023, or about one-fourth of all such attorneys. That decline happened even as the total number of lawyers in Texas grew by more than 25,000.

The problem is worse in rural areas, where judges cannot find enough attorneys to appoint, slowing court operations. In Texas, 27% of attorneys in rural counties are already overburdened and exceeding recommended caseload guidelines.

“I understand the irony of a prosecutor advocating for money for a public defender office, but at the end of the day it would help the county carry out its constitutional obligation,” Val Verde County prosecutor David Martinez told the Texas Tribune. “It would save the county hundreds of thousands of dollars in the long run.”

Fewer attorneys available

This problem is not new. A 2004 report from the American Bar Association outlined funding shortages that hampered hiring of defense counsel, leading to inexperienced and sometimes incompetent lawyers handling excessive caseloads.

But the problem has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic and its disruption of the labor market.

Our research shows that attorneys who take indigent defense cases often do so out of a strong sense of civic duty and commitment to public service. Attorneys are asked to do far more than just apply the law. They regularly help clients navigate housing, transportation, substance use and mental health needs. Without a strong sense of calling, many attorneys choose other areas of practice instead of public defense.

Some attorneys with a sense of motivation are still unable to join public service. Citing the cost of repaying law school loans, they enter private practice instead.

No simple solutions

The shortage of attorneys willing to take indigent defense cases is a serious policy problem. Solving it requires expanding the pool of attorneys who are available to take these cases – both the attorneys who are practicing today and the attorneys who will enter the profession in the future.

In a courtroom, a tattooed man sits while his attorney stands beside him.
Nick Reiner appears with deputy public defender Kimberly Greene during his arraignment in Los Angeles on Feb. 23, 2026. The son of U.S. movie director Rob Reiner pleaded not guilty to the fatal stabbing of his parents.
AFP/Chris Torres via Getty Images

Policymakers have mainly focused on expanding the pool of existing attorneys. The most common tools include increasing appointment fees, offering additional financial incentives and creating or expanding public defender offices.

These approaches can help in the short term, but their effects are limited. Raising fees rarely brings new attorneys into indigent defense; instead, it often lures attorneys from neighboring jurisdictions that already face shortages.

Raising fees for private lawyers also fails to address public defender offices, where attorneys are salaried and often paid less than prosecutors. Loan forgiveness programs can help recruitment and retention; research shows they matter for public service careers, but these programs are uneven across states and uncertain over time.

Financial incentives alone will not solve a workforce problem rooted in supply. A sustainable solution requires expanding the pool of prospective attorneys. We believe it would help for recruitment to begin much earlier, at the high school level, especially in rural areas, and continue through college and law school.

Current efforts tend to focus only on law students who are already committed to legal careers. Partnerships between counties, state agencies, bar associations, universities and community organizations could help build pipelines leading to public defense careers. They might offer, for example, internships and mentoring, or reduce barriers for students who want to serve their communities.

Expanding the pool of attorneys will require years of coordinated investment across states, counties, courts, law schools and the legal profession. Short-term incentives can prop up overburdened systems, but long-term recruitment will be needed to keep courts functioning and fully protect the constitutional right to counsel.

The Conversation

Georges Naufal has received funding from the Texas Indigent Defense Commission.

Emily Naiser has received funding from the Texas Indigent Defense Commission.

ref. Public defender shortage is leading to hundreds of criminal cases being dismissed – https://theconversation.com/public-defender-shortage-is-leading-to-hundreds-of-criminal-cases-being-dismissed-275534

Stressed out by politics? You’re not imagining it, and research shows that social media is largely to blame

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Stephen Neely, Associate Professor of Public Affairs, University of South Florida

Around 17% of American adults – roughly 44 million people – reported losing sleep over politics in 2024. MDV Edwards/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Does politics stress you out? Did the last election cause you to lose sleep, lose your temper or lose a friend? If so, you weren’t alone.

For the better part of two decades, the American Psychological Association has documented a steady increase in the phenomenon of “political stress” among American voters. However, research and reporting during that same period have focused primarily on the political consequences of increasing polarization and division rather than the psychological consequences of the modern political climate.

As a political scientist studying how the public engages with politics and media, I wondered: What does it mean to live in a political environment that is highly confrontational, emotionally charged and difficult to escape? And how does that environment affect people over time?

During the 2024 presidential election, I teamed up with three colleagues to answer those questions. Our book, The Anxious State: Stress Polarization, and Elections in America, published in January 2026, summarizes what we learned.

While several features of the modern political landscape contribute to political stress, one culprit in particular is alarmingly efficient at converting politics into chronic stress – social media.

Social media algorithms are designed to feed you content that provokes strong emotional reactions in order to keep you scrolling, clicking, commenting and sharing.

Political stress builds fast

We conducted four large, nationally representative surveys tracking Americans’ political attitudes and well-being, one every three months over the course of 2024. Across our election year surveys, roughly 4 in 10 American adults consistently reported that politics had caused them to experience at least one significant stress reaction in the past month. These included nontrivial conflicts with friends and family, sleep disruptions, lost tempers and being unable to mentally or emotionally disengage from politics.

In a country of roughly 260 million adults, that amounts to well over 100 million people experiencing measurable political stress in any given month.

In just one example, at each point in 2024, around 17% of American adults reported losing sleep over politics. This translates to roughly 44 million people nationwide. Sleep loss is not a trivial inconvenience. Extensive research shows that insufficient sleep is associated with impaired cognitive function, chronic health problems, diminished productivity and an increase in traffic accidents, just to name a few.

Our findings point to similar trends from the effects of lost tempers, fractured social networks and excessive political rumination. And while some degree of political stress might be expected in the lead-up to a highly consequential election, what surprised us most was how little these numbers changed over time. Despite a year filled with dramatic political events, reported levels of political stress rarely budged.

This stability suggests that political stress is no longer driven primarily by isolated moments of breaking news or electoral upheaval. Instead, it appears to be sustained by the environment in which people now encounter politics – and that environment is increasingly shaped by social media.

Why social media is different

Social media differs from earlier forms of political communication in a crucial way: Content is not presented chronologically or editorially; it is presented algorithmically. Platforms such as Facebook, X and TikTok are designed to maximize attention and engagement, which means they privilege content that provokes strong emotional reactions.

In other words, content that causes outrage, fear, moral condemnation and conflict is simply more likely to keep users scrolling, clicking, commenting and sharing.

As a result, political information on social media is more likely to reach people through a sensationalized and emotionally charged lens than information encountered through traditional news sources. And given the architecture of social networks, this content tends to reach users whether they seek it out or not.

Time spent online is stressful, but engagement makes it worse

Our findings show that even passive exposure to political content on social media is linked to elevated political stress. But active engagement – such as likes, reposts and comments – makes the problem substantially worse.

People who reported frequently encountering, commenting on or sharing political content online consistently exhibited the highest overall levels of political stress in our survey. Compared with those who primarily consumed political information passively and without engaging, active participants were far more likely to report losing sleep, losing their temper and feeling unable to disengage from politics.

In other words, the more that social media turns users from observers into participants in political conflict, the greater the psychological toll appears to be.

A generational divide

These effects, while substantial, were not distributed evenly across the population.

Younger Americans, particularly members of Gen Z, reported higher levels of political stress associated with social media use than older cohorts. This is not especially surprising. Younger adults are more likely to rely on social media as a primary source of political information.

For a generation that has never known a political environment without algorithmically curated feeds, the boundary between politics and everyday life is especially thin. Politics does not arrive at scheduled times, through discrete channels. Rather, it is interspersed with expressions of social identity, entertainment and peer interaction. And this constant exposure comes with a psychological cost.

Social media alone certainly isn’t to blame for the anxious and divisive state of America’s political climate. In our research, we identified a number of factors that contribute to Americans’ current levels of exhaustion with politics, including sharp increases in partisan hostility and negative – often uncivil – campaign tactics.

But social media nonetheless stands out for how efficiently it amplifies this stress – and that is unlikely to change unless and until voters become more aware that their emotions and well-being are being negatively influenced by the very platforms they turn to for information and connection.

The Conversation

I don’t own or “work for” the publisher selling our recent book, but the exposure for these data would presumably benefit both they and me.

ref. Stressed out by politics? You’re not imagining it, and research shows that social media is largely to blame – https://theconversation.com/stressed-out-by-politics-youre-not-imagining-it-and-research-shows-that-social-media-is-largely-to-blame-274849

La guerra en Oriente Medio hace subir los precios del petróleo y golpea la economía mundial, pero todavía no es una crisis

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

Los mercados mundiales del petróleo han reaccionado rápidamente al aumento de las tensiones en Oriente Medio, mientras Estados Unidos e Israel continúan su ofensiva contra Irán.

Tras la interrupción del tráfico de petroleros a través de un punto clave, el estrecho de Ormuz, el precio de referencia del petróleo, el crudo Brent, subió alrededor de un 6 % hasta superar los 77 dólares por barril. Inicialmente alcanzó un máximo de 82 dólares, su nivel más alto desde enero de 2025.

Una subida de aproximadamente 10 dólares en cuestión de días es un movimiento significativo y supone un golpe inflacionista inmediato para las economías importadoras de petróleo.

¿Qué significa esto para los hogares, las empresas y los bancos centrales?

Por qué el petróleo sigue siendo importante

Puede que el petróleo ya no domine la economía mundial como lo hacía en la década de 1970, pero sigue estando muy presente en la producción moderna.

Influye directamente en los precios de la gasolina, el diésel, el combustible de aviación y el transporte marítimo, y determina el coste del transporte y la producción de todo, desde alimentos hasta productos manufacturados. Cuando los precios del petróleo suben rápidamente, los efectos se extienden más allá de los mercados energéticos.

Los economistas lo denominan «choque negativo de la oferta»: el resultado es que la producción se encarece. Las empresas pueden absorber los mayores costes o repercutirlos en los consumidores. En la práctica, suelen hacer ambas cosas.

El resultado es una incómoda combinación de mayor inflación y menor crecimiento económico.

El impacto de la inflación pesará sobre los bancos centrales

El efecto más inmediato se produce en las gasolineras. El aumento de los precios del crudo eleva los costes del combustible y empuja al alza la inflación general. Para los hogares que ya se enfrentan a presiones por el coste de la vida, esto se nota rápidamente.

Por ejemplo, cuando el precio del petróleo sube 10 dólares por barril, la regla general es que el precio de la gasolina para los conductores estadounidenses podría aumentar unos 25 centavos por galón (0,21 euros por unos 3,8 litros de gasolina). En otros lugares, como Australia, se estima que el aumento sería de unos 10 centavos por litro más por cada aumento de 10 dólares estadounidenses (0,08 cts. de euro por litro).

Los costes de transporte y logística también aumentan, y, con el tiempo, algunos de esos costes más elevados se filtran en el nivel general de precios.

El aumento de la inflación depende de la duración de la perturbación de los mercados petroleros. Un breve repunte podría añadir solo unas décimas de punto porcentual a la inflación. Un aumento sostenido sería más problemático.

Los bancos centrales están muy atentos. La inflación en Estados Unidos y Europa ha bajado desde los máximos alcanzados tras la pandemia.

Una crisis del petróleo podría debilitar el crecimiento mundial

El aumento de los costes del combustible corre el riesgo de dar un nuevo impulso a la inflación, justo en el momento menos oportuno, cuando los responsables políticos de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos y del Banco Central Europeo esperaban que se estuviera controlando.

En uno de los primeros comentarios de un banco central sobre el impacto económico del conflicto, desde el Banco de la Reserva de Australia se advierte de que la crisis de suministro podría aumentar las presiones inflacionistas.

La inflación impulsada por el petróleo supone un reto especial para los bancos centrales. Subir los tipos de interés no puede afectar al suministro de petróleo. A diferencia de la inflación impulsada por la demanda, en la que el fuerte gasto de los consumidores puede enfriarse con tipos de interés más altos, la inflación impulsada por la oferta refleja unos costes de producción más elevados.

Si los bancos centrales suben los tipos para contener los precios, corren el riesgo de ralentizar aún más el crecimiento. Pero las subidas de los tipos de interés no pueden bajar directamente los precios del petróleo.

Presión sobre los presupuestos familiares

El aumento de los precios del petróleo también ejerce presión sobre los presupuestos familiares.

Cuando las familias gastan más en combustible, tienen menos para gastar en otras cosas. Dado que el consumo de los hogares suele representar alrededor del 60 % de las economías en las economías avanzadas, incluso los cambios modestos en el gasto pueden ser importantes.

Las empresas se enfrentan a una presión similar. El aumento de los costes de la energía y el transporte reduce los márgenes de beneficio y puede retrasar la contratación o la inversión.

Los efectos varían según el país. Europa es un importante importador neto de energía. Esto hace la expone al aumento de los precios mundiales del petróleo. En cambio, en EE. UU., exportador energético a nivel global, los precios más altos favorecen a su sector energético, pero siguen aumentando los costes para la mayoría de los hogares.

El actual aumento del precio del petróleo no es suficiente para provocar una recesión mundial. Sin embargo, supone un obstáculo más en un momento en que el crecimiento mundial se modera.

¿Cómo se compara esto con 2022?

La comparación obvia es la subida del precio del petróleo tras la invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia en 2022.

Entonces, los precios del crudo subieron brevemente por encima de los 120 dólares estadounidenses por barril, lo que intensificó la ya elevada inflación. En respuesta, la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos subió rápidamente los tipos de interés para frenar la inflación.

La situación actual es menos extrema. Los precios están muy por debajo de esos máximos, la demanda mundial es más débil y los tipos de interés en los Estados Unidos, Europa y Australia son varios puntos porcentuales más altos que a principios de 2022. La inflación ha tendido a bajar en la mayoría de las principales economías.

Aun así, es posible que los hogares sean ahora más sensibles. Tras años de subida de precios y tipos de interés más altos, la confianza de los consumidores es frágil. Incluso aumentos moderados de los precios de la gasolina pueden influir en el gasto.

La pregunta clave es si se trata de algo temporal o del comienzo de una subida sostenida.

¿Qué pasaría si los precios siguieran subiendo?

Si los precios del petróleo siguieran subiendo, especialmente hacia los 100 dólares por barril, los riesgos aumentarían.

La inflación se vería impulsada al alza. Los bancos centrales podrían enfrentarse a una elección incómoda: tolerar una mayor inflación impulsada por la energía o mantener los tipos de interés más altos durante más tiempo.

Los mercados financieros se ajustarían rápidamente y la volatilidad podría aumentar.

El escenario más grave implicaría interrupciones en el suministro que limitarían la producción mundial, lo que aumentaría el riesgo de un crecimiento más lento combinado con una inflación persistente.

Una conmoción, pero aún no una crisis

Por ahora, el aumento del 6 % en los precios del petróleo representa un claro impulso inflacionista y un moderado lastre para el crecimiento. Complica las perspectivas, pero no se asemeja a las crisis energéticas del pasado.

Lo más importante es la persistencia. Si los precios se estabilizan, el impacto debería ser manejable. Si siguen subiendo, el petróleo podría volver a convertirse en un motor central de la inflación mundial y en un nuevo reto para los bancos centrales.

The Conversation

Stella Huangfu no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. La guerra en Oriente Medio hace subir los precios del petróleo y golpea la economía mundial, pero todavía no es una crisis – https://theconversation.com/la-guerra-en-oriente-medio-hace-subir-los-precios-del-petroleo-y-golpea-la-economia-mundial-pero-todavia-no-es-una-crisis-277403

La pluie arrive en Antarctique, et ce n’est pas une bonne nouvelle

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Bethan Davies, Professor of Glaciology, Newcastle University

La pluie entraîne toutes sortes de changements profonds en Antarctique. Gula52/Shutterstock

Habituellement rare en Antarctique, la pluie remplace de plus en plus souvent la neige, en particulier sur la péninsule. Ce n’est pas une bonne nouvelle pour les glaciers, les manchots et même les scientifiques qui travaillent sur le terrain.


La pluie est habituellement rare en Antarctique. Les scientifiques qui y travaillent s’habillent pour affronter le froid et l’éblouissement (lié aux vastes étendues blanches qui réfléchissent la lumière du soleil, ndlt) et non pour faire face à des conditions météorologiques humides : vestes matelassées, pantalons de neige, lunettes de protection, crème solaire, etc. Les avions atterrissent sur des pistes en gravier qui sont rarement verglacées, faute de précipitations qui pourraient geler. Les cabanes historiques restent bien conservées dans l’air sec.

Mais cela commence à changer.

Il pleut déjà plus souvent qu’avant sur la péninsule antarctique, étroite et montagneuse, qui constitue la pointe la plus septentrionale du continent et qui pointe vers l’Amérique du Sud. Cette péninsule constitue la partie la plus chaude de l’Antarctique et se réchauffe plus rapidement que le reste du continent, et d’ailleurs plus rapidement que la moyenne mondiale. Elle donne un aperçu de ce que pourrait connaître la côte antarctique, en particulier la fragile calotte glaciaire de l’Antarctique occidental, au cours des prochaines décennies.

J’ai récemment dirigé une équipe de scientifiques chargée d’étudier l’évolution de la péninsule antarctique d’ici 2100 selon trois scénarios d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre : élevées, moyennes et faibles. Nous avons constaté qu’avec le réchauffement de la péninsule les précipitations augmenteront un peu.

Surtout, elles se présenteront de plus en plus sous forme de pluie plutôt que de neige. Les journées où la température dépasse 0 °C deviendront plus fréquentes, et ces précipitations modifieront fondamentalement la péninsule.

Quand la chaleur et la pluie vont de pair

Les conditions météorologiques extrêmes causent déjà des problèmes. En février 2020, une vague de chaleur avait fait grimper les températures à 18,6 °C dans la péninsule nord, permettant de ne porter qu’un t-shirt – une première en Antarctique. Pendant ce temps, les plateformes de glace ont fondu à un rythme record.

map of Antarctica
La péninsule prolonge l’Antarctique occidental en direction de l’Amérique du Sud.
USGS/wiki, CC BY-SA

Les rivières atmosphériques – de longs couloirs étroits d’air chaud et humide qui prennent naissance dans les latitudes plus chaudes – jouent un rôle de plus en plus notable. En février 2022, l’une d’entre elles a entraîné une fonte record de glace en surface. Une autre, en juillet 2023, a apporté des précipitations et une hausse des températures de + 2,7 °C à la péninsule en plein cœur de l’hiver. Ces événements se produisent de plus en plus souvent, apportant de la pluie et du dégel dans des zones où aucun de ces deux phénomènes n’avait été observé auparavant.

Ce que la pluie fait à la neige et à la glace

La neige n’aime pas la pluie. Nous avons tous déjà vu de la neige fondre rapidement lorsqu’il pleut.

Dans la péninsule antarctique, la pluie s’accompagne d’une hausse des températures qui fait fondre et lessive la neige, et prive ainsi les glaciers d’apports de neige précieux. L’eau de fonte peut également atteindre le lit du glacier, lubrifiant sa base et accélérant les glissements. Cela augmente la production d’icebergs et la masse de glace perdue dans l’océan.

Sur les plateformes de glace, la pluie compacte la neige tombée à la surface, où l’eau forme rapidement des mares. Cette eau de fonte accumulée se réchauffe ensuite plus vite, car elle est moins réfléchissante que la neige et la glace environnantes et peut fondre à travers le plateau glaciaire jusqu’à l’océan. Cela conduit à un affaiblissement de la glace et donne naissance à davantage d’icebergs.

Cela peut déstabiliser ces plateformes. La formation de mares d’eau de fonte a été impliquée dans l’effondrement des plateformes glaciaires Larsen A et B au début des années 2000.

La glace de mer (constituée d’eau de mer gelée, et qui forme la banquise, ndlt) est, elle aussi, vulnérable. La pluie réduit la couverture neigeuse et la réflectivité de la surface, ce qui accélère, là aussi, la fonte de la glace. La glace de mer constitue pourtant, en temps normal, un tampon naturel qui amortit les vagues et contribue à empêcher les extrémités des glaciers de se détacher et de se transformer en icebergs. C’est aussi l’habitat des algues et du krill ainsi que les lieux de reproduction des manchots et des phoques.

Des écosystèmes en péril

Un climat plus pluvieux aura donc de nombreux impacts écologiques en Antarctique.

L’eau peut ainsi inonder les sites de nidification des manchots. Ces derniers ont évolué dans un désert polaire et ne sont pas adaptés à la pluie. Les plumes duveteuses de leurs poussins ne sont pas imperméables, de sorte que les fortes pluies les trempent, entraînant parfois une hypothermie puis la mort.

baby penguins in Antarctica
Les plumes des manchots empêchent la glace et la neige de pénétrer mais pas l’eau liquide.
Vladsilver/Shutterstock

Conjuguée au réchauffement des océans, à la diminution de la surface de la banquise et à la raréfaction du krill, cette pression affectera les manchots de tout le continent. Des espèces emblématiques de l’Antarctique, telles que le manchot Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae) et le manchot à jugulaire (Pygoscelis antarcticus), qui dépendent de la glace, risquent d’être remplacées par les manchots papous (Pygoscelis papua), plus adaptables, que l’on retrouve de plus en plus au Sud.

Les précipitations modifient également la vie à plus petite échelle. Lorsqu’elles font fondre la couche de neige, elles perturbent les algues des neiges, des plantes microscopiques qui contribuent aux écosystèmes terrestres de l’Antarctique. Ces algues nourrissent des microbes et de minuscules invertébrés et peuvent assombrir la surface de la neige, augmentant ainsi l’absorption solaire et accélérer la fonte.

La neige isole normalement le sol, ce qui permet d’amortir les variations de températures extérieures et de protéger les organismes qui vivent en dessous. Les surfaces désormais exposées sont à présent soumises à des conditions plus rudes et plus variables.

Parallèlement, le réchauffement des mers peut faciliter la colonisation de la région par des espèces marines envahissantes, telles que certaines moules ou certains crabes.

De nouveaux défis pour les scientifiques

Les humains ne sont pas non plus à l’abri des défis posés par une péninsule Antarctique plus pluvieuse.

Avec l’intérêt géopolitique croissant porté à l’Antarctique, il est probable que les infrastructures humaines se développent, avec de nouvelles colonies et bases potentielles pour servir les industries émergentes, telles que le tourisme ou la pêche au krill. Or, les infrastructures de recherche actuelles ont été conçues pour la neige, et non pour de fortes pluies. La pluie gèle sur les pistes d’atterrissage et peut les rendre inutilisables jusqu’à ce que la glace ait fondu.

La neige fondue et l’eau de fonte peuvent endommager les bâtiments, les tentes, les instruments et les véhicules. Il pourrait également être nécessaire de repenser les vêtements et les équipements.

Certains sites de recherche entiers pourraient devoir être déplacés. Sur l’île Alexander, l’augmentation de la fonte en surface a déjà perturbé les recherches écologiques menées de longue date à Mars Oasis, qui fait l’objet d’études continues depuis la fin des années 1990, ce qui a entraîné des trous dans les données scientifiques.

Un patrimoine en danger

Les sites historiques sont particulièrement vulnérables.

L’Antarctique compte 92 sites et monuments historiques, résultat de deux siècles d’exploration et de recherche. Bon nombre de ces cabanes en bois, premières installations scientifiques et entrepôts de matériel, sont regroupées sur la péninsule.

Dans un climat plus chaud et plus humide, le dégel du pergélisol et des précipitations plus abondantes menacent l’intégrité structurelle de ces sites. Le bois se détériorera plus rapidement. Les fondations s’affaisseront. Ces sites nécessiteront un entretien plus fréquent, dans une partie du monde où les travaux de conservation sont déjà difficiles sur le plan logistique.

La péninsule Antarctique subit déjà des changements rapides. Si le réchauffement climatique atteint 2 °C ou 3 °C au cours de ce siècle, les conditions météorologiques extrêmes, les précipitations et la fonte de surface s’intensifieront. Les dommages causés aux écosystèmes, aux infrastructures, aux glaciers et aux sites patrimoniaux pourraient être graves et potentiellement irréversibles.

La pluie, autrefois rare en Antarctique, devient une force capable de remodeler la vie sur la péninsule. Limiter le réchauffement à moins de 1,5 °C n’empêchera pas entièrement ces changements. Mais cela pourrait ralentir la vitesse à laquelle les précipitations transforment le continent gelé.

The Conversation

Bethan Davies a reçu des financements du département des régions polaires du Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office britannique.

ref. La pluie arrive en Antarctique, et ce n’est pas une bonne nouvelle – https://theconversation.com/la-pluie-arrive-en-antarctique-et-ce-nest-pas-une-bonne-nouvelle-277393

Too close to Trump: How Indonesian President Prabowo gambles sovereignty, humanity for US’ approval

Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Karina Utami Dewi, Dosen Jurusan Hubungan Internasional, Universitas Islam Indonesia (UII) Yogyakarta

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and US President AS Donald Trump at a conference room at the International Congress Centre, Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt on Oct. 13, 2025. Muchlis Jr/Biro Pers Sekretariat Presiden, CC BY

The Indonesian public has grown increasingly uneasy with President Prabowo Subianto’s foreign policy pivot toward the United States. From Indonesia’s decision to join the Board of Peace (BoP) initiated by Donald Trump to the signing of the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on February 19, 2026, the trajectory is clear: Jakarta is tilting towards Washington at a cost many fear will be borne by ordinary Indonesians.

Prabowo once framed his diplomacy as rooted in resilience, autonomy, and national interests. However, in practice, his recent manoeuvres suggest a readiness to align closely with Trump’s agenda, even if it means diluting Indonesia’s bargaining position.

Prabowo’s efforts to draw Indonesia closer to the US under the Trump’s administration raise serious doubts about his underlying motives. Rather than clearly advancing long-term national interests, these efforts appear driven by transactional calculations and short-term gains.

Rehabilitating personal image at the public expense

Prabowo was barred from entering the US for a decade over alleged human rights violations tied to 1998. The ban was lifted in 2020 when he served as Indonesian Defence Minister during which Trump first served his tenure.

The lifting of the ban drew harsh criticism from human rights groups such as Amnesty International for providing impunity over the violations he was accused of. It was also condemned by prominent US lawmakers like Senator Patrick Leahy, author of the US human rights legislation known as the Leahy Law, who stated Prabowo was legally ineligible to enter the country.

Indonesia's foreign policy appears to be repurposed as a vehicle to polish Prabowo's international standing.
President Prabowo Subianto and President Donald Trump at the conference hall at the International Congress Centre in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, on Monday, 13 October 2025.
Muchlis Jr/Biro Pers Sekretariat Presiden, CC BY

Today, his closeness to Trump signals more than diplomacy. Rather, it also suggests a personal redemption arc playing out on the global stage – from a figure who was once rejected by Washington to one who now stands shoulder to shoulder with the White House.

Trump’s public praise of Prabowo as a “tough” leader at the BoP Summit was symbolically powerful.

What is unfolding looks less like statecraft and more like image management. Indonesia’s foreign policy appears to be repurposed as a vehicle to polish Prabowo’s international standing.

Trump and Prabowo: transactional power over principles

Trump’s foreign policy stance is defined by transactional deals and loyalty politics, moving far from human rights issues or democratic values, which were previously the main guidelines for his predecessors in conducting foreign policy. Prabowo’s leadership style appears strikingly compatible.

Trade agreement which reduces Indonesia's export tariffs to the US from 32% to 19% could be framed as a quick win for Prabowo
President Prabowo Subianto and President Donald Trump sign a trade agreement on reciprocal tariff in Washington.
Ministry of State Secretary of the Republic of Indonesia, CC BY

In international relations, transactionalism or transactional diplomacy refers to a strategy that prioritises short-term gains and treats statecraft much like a business deal. It favours bilateral over multilateral agreements, with a tendency towards a zero-sum world view, disregarding value-based policy-making and longer-term strategic diplomatic goals.

Eric Jones writes in The Jakarta Post that Prabowo-Trump relationship reflects a “strongman’s mirror” – a psychological and political alignment between two leaders who view power as something personalised, not institutional. Trump relies on loyalty and patronage, while Prabowo appears comfortable with similar transactional logic. Both project a performative, personality-driven style of leadership.

This model could work to Prabowo’s advantage. Under Trump, lingering human rights concerns regarding Prabowo are no longer a diplomatic obstacle. The recent trade agreement, which reduces Indonesia’s export tariffs to the US from 32% to 19%, could even be framed as a quick diplomatic win for Prabowo, in line with transactional diplomacy’s emphasis on tangible, immediate outcomes.

The compatibility between Trump’s and Prabowo’s leadership styles could therefore produce smoother, more flexible ties than if the US were led by an administration that prioritises institutional norms and liberal values.

A risky departure from Indonesia’s free-and-active tradition

Indonesia’s long-standing “free-and-active” (bebas-aktif) foreign policy has defined its identity since independence and emphasised strategic autonomy amid great-power rivalry. For many Indonesians, Prabowo’s alignment with Trump’s transactional approach has drawn criticism and anger, as it signals a shift away from that principle and may erode diplomatic independence.

The decision to join the Board of Peace has also sparked concerns over potentially weakening Indonesia’s position as one of the first countries to support Palestinian independence.

No deals at the cost of sovereignty

Closer ties with the US under Trump’s controversial leadership do not automatically betray Indonesia’s national interest. However, overreliance on transactionalism, at the expense of enduring principles, risks making the relationship volatile. The recent pushback by the US Supreme Court against Trump’s tariff policy shows how quickly US policy can change.

Indonesia’s real strength lies not in personal ties to certain leaders, but in its consistency in maintaining autonomy and balance. Its free-and-active politics is a strategic asset, not a slogan to be traded for short-term legitimacy at the cost of credibility and sovereignty.

The Conversation

Karina Utami Dewi tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.

ref. Too close to Trump: How Indonesian President Prabowo gambles sovereignty, humanity for US’ approval – https://theconversation.com/too-close-to-trump-how-indonesian-president-prabowo-gambles-sovereignty-humanity-for-us-approval-276636