Le système de santé français expliqué aux citoyens des États-Unis en 2026

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Jean de Kervasdoué, Professeur d’économie de la santé, Conservatoire national des arts et métiers (CNAM)

Un habitant des États-Unis dépense 12 627 euros par an pour se soigner, contre 6 249 euros en France. MillaF/Shuttetstock

Un océan sépare la vision universelle française de son système de santé de la vision assurantielle des États-Unis. En France, on n’a pas de pétrole mais des médecins, des hôpitaux publics, une régulation étatique forte et des soins remboursés.


Le 1er octobre 2025, le gouvernement fédéral des États-Unis fermait ses portes, communément appelé un shutdown, faute d’accord avec un nombre suffisant de démocrates pour voter le budget du gouvernement fédéral.

Le plus long shutdown de l’histoire des États-Unis aurait pu avoir des conséquences dramatiques pour une partie de la population et, notamment pour des millions d’États-Uniens qui auraient perdu leur assurance santé. Le président Trump détricote activement ce qu’avait fait Barack Obama en améliorant l’accès des plus déshérités à l’assurance maladie, politique qu’avait poursuivie Joe Biden.

Il faut ajouter à ce recul annoncé, la très discutable politique du Secrétaire d’État à la Santé, Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. Il tient notamment des positions très controversées en matière de vaccins.

Pourtant, si la France creuse son déficit de l’assurance maladie (de 17,2 milliards d’euros en 2025))) et doit se réformer, en matière de qualité et d’accès aux soins médicaux, ce pays demeure un pays de cocagne.

Alors, comment l’expliquer aux citoyens du pays de l’oncle Sam ?

Efficacité de la médecine française

Pour expliquer le système français aux États-Uniens, je commencerai par un retour en arrière.

En 1939, un citoyen des États-Unis avait une espérance de vie à la naissance supérieure de sept années à celle d’un Français. Les choses ont changé depuis car celle-ci est, en 2024, inférieure de plus de trois années et demie : 79 pour les États-Unis, 82,5 pour la France. Pourtant, en 2025, pour se soigner, la dépense de santé par habitant correspondait à l’équivalent de 12 627 euros par an aux États-Unis, soit 14 885 dollars, et 6 249 euros en France, soit 7 367 dollars.

À l’échelle nationale, cela se traduit par un montant des dépenses dites « de santé » (elles sont surtout des dépenses médicales) de 17,2 % du PIB aux États-Unis et de 11,4 % en France. Si l’évolution de l’espérance de vie a à voir avec les modes de vie et les habitudes alimentaires (entraînant obésité et diabète), l’efficacité de la médecine joue un rôle croissant.

Il est vraisemblable que la qualité des soins pour le plus grand nombre est à la fois meilleure et plus accessible en France.

Pour ce qui est du paiement des soins médicaux, en France c’est simple : c’est un pays où l’assurance maladie vous couvre, dès la naissance. Tout résident légal est affilié de droit à l’assurance maladie et, à ce titre, reçoit des soins, gratuits pour les pathologies les plus sévères, sinon remboursés en grande partie par le régime d’assurance obligatoire et/ou le régime d’assurance santé complémentaire.

Aux États-Unis, coexistent trois systèmes de Sécurité sociale : Medicare, pour les plus de 65 ans et les personnes en situation de handicap, Medicaid pour les plus pauvres et la Veterans Health Administration) destinée aux anciens combattants.

Près de 7,8 % du coût des soins assumé par le citoyen français

Pour trente maladies graves, les soins sont remboursés à 100 % par le régime obligatoire comme le diabète de type 1 ou 2, les maladies psychiatriques ou les cancers.

Si on ajoute les assurances complémentaires « santé » – aujourd’hui quasiment universelles –, seulement 7,8 % du coût des soins en France est in fine réglé par le patient. Bien entendu, le citoyen ou la citoyenne de l’Hexagone ou son employeur auront cotisé pour financer l’assurance maladie obligatoire ou complémentaire.

Pour la plupart des Français et des Françaises, il n’y a pas ou peu de barrière financière à l’entrée. Elles se sont encore réduites pour les soins dentaires, l’optique et l’audition grâce à une politique menée par Emmanuel Macron le « 100 % santé ».).

Si quelques barrières demeurent, le système français est plus généreux que ceux des pays comparables.

Si le patient est incité à avoir un médecin de référence, son « médecin traitant » avec lequel les soins sont entièrement remboursés, il ne lui en coûtera que quelques euros quand il souhaitera déroger à la règle. Il pourra voir dans la même journée plusieurs spécialistes dont les honoraires lui seront en grande partie remboursés, si ce dernier ne pratique pas des tarifs supérieurs à ceux fixés par l’Assurance maladie (on parle de « dépassements d’honoraires »), une pratique courante dans certaines spécialités médicales.

En France, une majorité d’établissements publics

Comme aux États-Unis, il y a en France des hôpitaux publics, des hôpitaux privés à but non lucratif et des cliniques privées à but lucratif. À noter que les 31 hôpitaux universitaires (CHU) français sont tous publics.

La France a cependant un pourcentage plus élevé d’hôpitaux privés à but lucratif que les États-Unis. En 2024, la France compte 33 % de cliniques privées, les États-Unis 20 %.

Répartition des dépenses de santé aux États-Unis.
Healthsystemtracker

En France, en ville, les médecins libéraux ont la liberté d’installation et sont payés à l’acte. Dans la majorité des cas, les tarifs sont fixés par l’assurance maladie et sont très inférieurs aux tarifs états-uniens : 30 euros pour une consultation chez un généraliste en France, 150 dollars aux États-Unis, soit 127 euros.

Forte régulation par l’État en France

Bien entendu, en France, l’État est fortement impliqué dans la régulation du système.

Il n’est pas possible d’ouvrir une pharmacie sans autorisation administrative. L’État, par ses agences régionales de santé (ARS), contrôle toutes les autorisations en matière hospitalière, que les hôpitaux soient publics ou privés. L’État gère les nomenclatures de tous les actes médicaux, le tarif et le taux de remboursement de chaque médicament, radiographie ou examen de biologie. L’État, à l’échelon national nomme tous les directeurs et tous les médecins des hôpitaux publics (lesquels employaient près de 1,1 million de salariés fin 2021).

Il existe des établissements privés de grande qualité (315 000 employés en 2022) et, je le souligne encore, les médecins libéraux sont libres de leur installation et de leurs prescriptions.

Malgré tout, le système français est un des plus onéreux des pays occidentaux. L’hospitalisation y a une grande part, les spécialistes sont nombreux et la consommation de médicament y est élevée.

Si le système états-unien est plus onéreux encore, et factuellement plus inefficace, c’est parce que la concurrence entre les assurances privées produit non pas une baisse du coût des services – comme c’est souvent le cas en économie de marché – mais de l’inflation pour les primes d’assurance. Au nom d’une croyance dans les bienfaits absolus et systématiques de toute forme de concurrence, les gens aisés achètent aux États-Unis des assurances qui couvrent les honoraires des médecins réputés et les frais de séjour des hôpitaux luxueux. Ils entraînent de facto une croissance progressive du prix des biens et services médicaux.

Système états-unien inflationniste par essence

Avec le temps, les prix des producteurs de soins (ayant été rendus solvables par une partie de la demande) augmentent et cela produit de l’inflation. Le coût élevé des soins aux États-Unis, comparé aux autres pays occidentaux, est dû pour l’essentiel à une différence de prix des biens médicaux et des professionnels de santé. Le système états-unien est par essence inflationniste.

Les réformes durant le mandat de Barack Obama n’ont rien pu faire pour maîtriser cette inflation. Donald Trump dit vouloir s’y attaquer en pesant notamment sur le prix des médicaments.

À l’évidence, l’assurance maladie universelle permet le contrôle opérationnel des tarifs médicaux, du prix des médicaments et des tarifs hospitaliers. C’est la règle dans les pays de l’OCDE, à l’image de la France. Cela ne veut pas dire que les médecins ou les infirmières y soient mal payées, ou encore qu’il n’y ait pas d’accès aux découvertes médicales, mais que la régulation n’est pas laissée à un marché qui, dans le cas précis des soins médicaux, produit surtout de l’inflation.

Les États-Unis sont-ils plus socialistes ?

Pour terminer par une brève démonstration arithmétique : les dépenses publiques de santé, celles financées par les impôts et les cotisations obligatoires, représentent aux États-Unis 43 % des dépenses de santé aux États-Unis, soit 4 532 euros, soit 5 255 dollars, par habitant et par an (43 % des 10 517 euros de dépenses courantes de santé). En France, elles représentent 79,4 % de ces mêmes dépenses, soit 4 195 euros, 4 863 dollars – 79,4 % des 5 273 euros de dépenses courantes de santé au sens international par personne et par an –, le reste étant pris en charge par les complémentaires santé et les ménages.

Autrement dit, les taxes des États-Unis financent plus en valeur absolue le système de soins ! Pourrait-on considérer, de ce fait, que les États-Unis sont plus « socialistes » ? À l’évidence rien ne permet de l’affirmer, mais force est de constater que les États-Uniens payent deux fois leurs soins médicaux : une fois par leurs impôts, une fois par leur prime d’assurance.

Depuis longtemps aux États-Unis, des personnes ont fait ce constat et sont devenues de farouches partisans de l’assurance maladie universelle, à commencer par le défunt sénateur Ted Kennedy, le cadet des frères Kennedy. La probabilité qu’une telle réforme arrive sur l’agenda politique est à court terme nulle car, pour conclure par une citation de Marcel Proust, dans Du côté de chez Swann :

« Les faits ne pénètrent pas dans le monde où vivent nos croyances, ils n’ont pas fait naître celles-ci, ils ne les détruisent pas ; ils peuvent leur infliger les plus constants démentis, sans les affaiblir. »

Les croyances dans l’efficacité universelle du marché sont donc aussi fermes que coûteuses et restent plus que jamais vivantes.

The Conversation

Jean de Kervasdoué ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Le système de santé français expliqué aux citoyens des États-Unis en 2026 – https://theconversation.com/le-systeme-de-sante-francais-explique-aux-citoyens-des-etats-unis-en-2026-267123

Relations entre soignants, patients et aidants : pourquoi il faut accorder plus de place aux émotions

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Judith Partouche-Sebban, Professeur – Titulaire de la chaire Living Health, membre du département Technology Interaction, strategic Marketing & Customer Experience, PSB Paris School of Business

Ces dernières années, les chercheurs en sciences de gestion s’intéressent de plus en plus à la manière dont les émotions influencent les expériences de consommation, et le ressenti du service rendu. Dans le domaine de la santé, en revanche, cette problématique demeure sous-explorée. Et ce, alors même que les émotions façonnent chaque étape du parcours de soin, dans les hôpitaux, les cabinets médicaux ou même derrière l’écran d’une téléconsultation.


Dans les services hospitaliers, il est fréquent de voir des patients anxieux face à un diagnostic, des proches inquiets ou des soignants sous tension. Ces émotions ne sont pas de simples réactions passagères : elles déterminent la manière dont les patients perçoivent la qualité du soin, elles influencent leurs comportements, et façonnent leurs résultats de santé.

Les expériences de santé sont « émotionnellement intensives », marquées par la vulnérabilité, l’incertitude et le risque. Dès lors, comment comprendre ce rôle fondamental de l’émotion, et surtout, comment l’intégrer comme levier stratégique pour améliorer l’expérience patient ?

Les questions de santé activent des émotions fortes et persistantes

Les émotions apparaissent très tôt dans le parcours de soin. L’annonce d’un diagnostic, même lorsqu’il confirme une hypothèse déjà redoutée, déclenche un tourbillon émotionnel souvent violent : peur, détresse, colère, sentiment d’injustice. Les travaux existants montrent que ces réactions initiales influencent fortement la trajectoire émotionnelle des mois, voire des années, qui suivent.

Cette charge émotionnelle est souvent exacerbée dans les maladies chroniques ou rares. Les patients doivent intégrer dans leur quotidien une maladie visible ou non, évolutive, parfois difficile à comprendre pour l’entourage, et dont les symptômes physiques et psychologiques produisent une insécurité permanente.

Ils vivent alors une sorte de parcours ou de continuum affectif, ponctués non pas d’événements isolés, mais d’épisodes émotionnels successifs. Chaque phase dudit parcours activant des émotions différentes. Une consultation anxiogène peut réactiver des souvenirs douloureux ; une poussée de symptômes peut générer un sentiment d’impuissance ; un professionnel de santé maladroit dans son interaction peut générer frustration ou découragement.

L’émotion en santé n’est donc pas un bruit de fond : c’est une force structurante. Le patient n’est pas seulement un « usager » du système de soin. C’est un individu engagé dans un processus émotionnel complexe, qui co-construit son expérience avec les acteurs qui l’entourent.

Pourquoi les émotions transforment l’expérience patient

Les recherches en marketing et en comportement du consommateur montrent que les émotions influencent profondément les perceptions de service. En santé, cet effet est décuplé pour trois raisons principales.

Premièrement, les patients interprètent les événements du soin selon leurs préoccupations existentielles. La théorie psychologique dite de « l’évaluation cognitive » (cognitive appraisal theory, en anglais) permet de comprendre pourquoi, confrontées à une même situation, deux personnes peuvent réagir différemment. Elle postule que les émotions ne sont pas des réactions automatiques mais le résultat d’une évaluation subjective des événements : « Ce diagnostic menace-t-il ma vie ? », « Ce traitement va-t-il me permettre de redevenir moi-même ? », ou « Est-ce que je contrôle encore ce qui m’arrive ? ».

Ainsi, selon leur histoire, leurs attentes, leurs valeurs ou leurs ressources psychologiques disponibles au moment de recevoir l’information, deux patients se voyant attribuer un même diagnostic peuvent réagir très différemment, car ils lui attribueront un sens différent (menace ou défi, par exemple).

Deuxièmement, la santé touche directement à la préservation de ressources essentielles. En ce sens, une autre théorie psychologique, la théorie de la conservation des ressources (conservation of resources theory) est également éclairante. Elle montre que la perte réelle ou potentielle (autrement dit, la menace de perte) de ressources propres à l’individu génère stress et émotions négatives. Ces ressources peuvent être de nature matérielle ou non (santé, énergie, autonomie, soutien social, etc.).

Dans les maladies chroniques, ces pertes s’accumulent : fatigue durable, perte de statut, restrictions professionnelles, sentiment d’incompréhension sociale, etc. Les émotions deviennent alors un symptôme invisible, et pourtant déterminant et pesant, de l’expérience patient.

Troisièmement, les émotions influencent les comportements de santé. Des travaux soulignent que la détresse émotionnelle réduit l’observance des traitements (un patient en sécurité émotionnelle aura davantage tendance à suivre les recommandations médicales) ; elle altère la communication entre parties prenantes (patients, aidants, soignants) ; elle augmente le risque de complications ; et elle influence la capacité du patient à mobiliser ses ressources.

Reconnaître et apprendre à bien gérer ses émotions permet au patient de reprendre le contrôle sur son parcours et de mieux comprendre les enjeux thérapeutiques de sa prise en charge. D’un point de vue plus global, une meilleure gestion des émotions améliore la coordination des soins et renforce la cohésion entre les acteurs. À l’inverse, ignorer les émotions revient à ignorer un déterminant crucial de la qualité des soins.

Les émotions comme levier stratégique

Chaque interaction dans le système de santé constitue un « micro-moment émotionnel » : un rendez-vous manqué, une phrase maladroite, un manque de clarté dans l’explication d’un traitement… Ces petits événements lors des interactions entre parties prenantes déclenchent des cascades émotionnelles qui transforment la perception globale de l’expérience patient. À l’inverse, une parole rassurante, un signe d’attention ou un espace d’expression peut réduire drastiquement le stress et renforcer la confiance.

Ainsi, pour les patients, chaque interaction compte et peut être une occasion de créer de la confiance (dans les soignants, dans l’institution) ou au contraire, de générer défiance et rupture. Ceci est particulièrement vrai dans les maladies rares, où l’incertitude et la méconnaissance médicale amplifient les émotions négatives. Pour les soignants et établissements de santé, ces émotions représentent donc un levier stratégique.

Par ailleurs, contrairement à certaines idées reçues, les émotions en santé ne sont pas uniquement négatives. Elles peuvent aussi être des catalyseurs de résilience, d’adaptation ou même de changements positifs et durables vers de nouvelles priorités de vie ou de nouvelles perceptions de soi.

Plusieurs études démontrent, par exemple, que certains patients cherchent volontairement à expérimenter des situations physiquement difficiles – comme la pratique de l’escalade après un cancer – pour transformer leurs émotions douloureuses en force psychologique, dans une logique de croissance post-traumatique (en psychologie, ce concept désigne les changements psychologiques positifs qui surviennent à la suite de l’exposition à un traumatisme majeur, que ce soit en matière de perception de soi, de philosophie de vie, de relation aux autres, de développement spirituel, etc.).

Ces expériences, bien qu’éprouvantes, deviennent des espaces de reconquête du soi physique et existentiel, de son corps, d’autonomie et de sens. De ce fait, l’émotion, même négative, peut devenir un levier de valeur, pour peu que le système de soins accompagne correctement le patient.

Au-delà des diagnostics, des protocoles et des technologies, c’est bien l’émotion qui façonne la manière dont chacun vit le système de santé. Il ne s’agit pas d’un élément périphérique de l’expérience patient, mais bien de son infrastructure invisible.

Les émotions conditionnent la manière dont les patients vivent leurs soins et leur prise en charge, collaborent avec les professionnels de santé, adhèrent aux traitements, et donnent du sens à leur parcours. Les placer au centre des stratégies d’expérience patient est de ce fait une démarche nécessaire.

Cela implique de former les soignants à la compréhension des émotions, de créer des espaces de dialogue sécurisés, de développer des programmes d’accompagnement émotionnel, de considérer les émotions comme un indicateur de qualité des soins, et d’intégrer les associations de patients en tant que partenaires stratégiques.


Pour aller plus loin :

– La conférence « Les émotions : nouveau territoire de l’expérience patient », organisée dans le cadre des Matinales de la recherche, qui se tiendra le 19 mars 2026 à 9 h, sur le campus Delta de Paris School of Business Campus Delta, 16 Rue Claude Bernard à Paris.

The Conversation

Judith Partouche-Sebban ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Relations entre soignants, patients et aidants : pourquoi il faut accorder plus de place aux émotions – https://theconversation.com/relations-entre-soignants-patients-et-aidants-pourquoi-il-faut-accorder-plus-de-place-aux-emotions-277057

Pourquoi les bombardements suffisent rarement à faire chuter un régime

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Nicolas Minvielle, Docteur en économie, spécialiste des questions d’innovation et de défense, Audencia

De la Seconde Guerre mondiale à la guerre en Irak en 2003, l’histoire montre que les guerres aériennes ne sont pas forcément efficaces pour déstabiliser un pouvoir en place et briser le soutien que lui apporte une population.


Ukraine, Gaza, Syrie, et désormais Iran : les images de villes détruites saturent les écrans et montrent des destructions d’une ampleur extrême. Les bombardements contemporains poursuivent des objectifs très différents selon les contextes politiques et militaires. À Gaza, les frappes israéliennes visent officiellement à détruire le Hamas et à libérer des otages, mais on constate aussi une stratégie de terreur vis-à-vis des populations civiles. On retrouve aussi cette stratégie en Ukraine, avec pour objectif de briser le moral de la population, notamment avec le ciblage de la grille énergétique.

Dans le contexte plus large du conflit israélo-iranien, les frappes ont une logique partiellement distincte : Israël et les États-Unis ont mené des attaques contre des installations nucléaires et militaires iraniennes afin de détruire un programme perçu comme une menace stratégique, mais aussi afin d’amener à un changement de régime. 

Ces cas montrent que l’arme aérienne est utilisée pour atteindre des objectifs assez distincts. Or les réflexions sur l’usage des armes aériennes n’est pas nouvelle – elle a un siècle. Que nous enseigne cette histoire sur l’impact réel des stratégies de bombardements – notamment sur les populations ou les structures politiques – au-delà des pertes et des destructions matérielles ?

Pourquoi l’idée de campagnes aériennes à l’effet politique décisif est-elle toujours prisée, aujourd’hui encore, alors que de nombreux exemples montrent qu’elle est largement illusoire ?

Le mythe fondateur : Douhet et la guerre gagnée par le ciel

Dans les années 1920, le général italien Giulio Douhet (1869-1930) théorise la suprématie aérienne. Selon lui, la prochaine guerre se gagnera dans le ciel. En frappant directement les centres urbains, en infligeant une terreur massive aux populations civiles, on provoquerait un effondrement moral rapide. Les gouvernements, sous la pression de leurs propres citoyens, seraient alors contraints de capituler.

Cette vision repose sur une hypothèse simple : la peur détruit la volonté collective. Si Douhet structure cette doctrine, elle est déjà présente dans l’imaginaire stratégique. Dans The War in the Air (1908), H. G. Wells imagine ainsi qu’une Allemagne dotée d’une supériorité aérienne écrasante contraint Washington à capituler. Mais le roman contient un détail souvent oublié : une fois débarqués, les Allemands affrontent une résistance populaire acharnée. Dès le début du XXᵉ siècle, on pressent donc à la fois la puissance et les limites du bombardement aérien.

Qu’en est-il réellement ? Que nous dit la recherche sur cette question décisive ?

La théorie moderne de la coercition aérienne

À la fin du XXᵉ siècle, le politologue états-unien Robert A. Pape propose une analyse systématique des campagnes aériennes du XXᵉ siècle dans Bombing to Win. Air Power and Coercion in War (1996).

Il distingue trois stratégies qu’il est nécessaire de garder à l’esprit, car il s’agit d’une grille de lecture clé pour ce que nous vivons en ce moment dans le cadre des bombardements israélo-américains en Iran, mais aussi pour tout type de bombardement en général. L’idée ici est de déterminer dans un premier temps quelle est l’intentionnalité derrière le recours à l’arme aérienne, afin de pouvoir en évaluer les effets. Pour Pape, trois options sont offertes :

  1. Punishment (la punition) Il s’agit ici de frapper les civils pour infliger des souffrances et provoquer une pression politique interne. C’est la version contemporaine du modèle douhétiste.

  2. Risk (l’escalade graduelle) Il s’agit de menacer d’intensifier progressivement les frappes afin de créer incertitude et crainte d’une destruction totale.

  3. Denial (le déni) Finalement, il s’agit de détruire les capacités militaires, logistiques et stratégiques pour empêcher l’adversaire d’atteindre ses objectifs.

Les conclusions empiriques de Pape sont sans ambiguïté, et on les retrouve dans la grande majorité des recherches menées sur les bombardements : les campagnes fondées sur la punition des civils échouent presque toujours, et les campagnes efficaces sont celles qui empêchent militairement l’adversaire d’agir.

Autrement dit la coercition fonctionne lorsqu’elle modifie un calcul stratégique, non lorsqu’elle cherche à briser un moral. La différence est fondamentale car si l’on se trompe d’objectif, l’effet attendu ne sera pas obtenu.

Comment réagissent les civils face aux bombes ?

Pendant le Blitz (1940-1941), le psychiatre canadien J. T. MacCurdy analyse les réactions des civils britanniques dans The Structure of Morale (1943). Il distingue trois catégories après une explosion : les morts, les near misses (frappés de près) et les remote misses (frappés de loin). Les morts n’ont d’impact qu’à travers la perception qu’en ont les survivants. Les frappés de près peuvent être traumatisés. Mais la majorité appartient aux frappés de loin : ils ont entendu l’explosion, vu les dégâts… et sont encore en vie.

MacCurdy montre ainsi qu’après une peur initiale un processus d’adaptation rapide s’enclenche. Les survivants développent des réponses variées – du fatalisme au sentiment d’invulnérabilité. En d’autres termes, les bombardements produisent plus de survivants que de victimes, et les survivants apprennent. Par ailleurs, les individus finissent par s’habituer : la peur intense du premier choc décroît si elle n’est pas constamment associée à une destruction personnelle.

L’enquête « United States Strategic Bombing Survey », menée après la Seconde Guerre mondiale, confirme ce constat. Au-delà d’un certain seuil, la destruction supplémentaire produit des rendements décroissants. Le moral allemand ne s’effondre pas ; il évolue vers l’apathie ou l’endurance, mais pas vers la capitulation ni le soulèvement contre le régime. Plus proches de nous, les mêmes effets produisent les mêmes conséquences, avec des bombardements russes qui renforcent la population ukrainienne.

Plus encore, certaines recherches montrent des effets contre-productifs. L’étude de M. A. Kocher et ses collègues sur la guerre du Vietnam (2011) démontre que le bombardement de villages a déplacé le contrôle territorial vers le Viet Cong. Les pertes civiles délégitiment l’autorité centrale et renforcent l’insurrection. Dans ce contexte, la terreur nourrit l’adversaire, et ce jusque dans les travaux récents menés sur les campagnes américaines de lutte contre les insurrections. Il en va de même dans le cadre de l’opération états-unienne « Inherent Resolve » (« Détermination absolue », 2014) en Irak et en Syrie, où la recherche a montré que les bombardements avaient des effets incertains, avec un risque de solidarité accrue autour des insurgés dès lors que des civils sont touchés. Finalement, la violence aérienne change rarement la loyauté dans le sens espéré.

Des stratégies qui se poursuivent, malgré les enseignements de  l’histoire

Malgré un siècle de travaux empiriques montrant que la destruction matérielle se convertit rarement, à elle seule, en effondrement politique, l’idée que la pression militaire externe produisant un effet politique décisif demeure. Comment l’expliquer ?

Désormais, les dirigeants contemporains ne parlent plus de « briser une population », mais ils suggèrent souvent que la dégradation capacitaire ou la pression cumulative pourraient fragiliser durablement le pouvoir en place.

On peut d’abord expliquer la persistance de la croyance en l’efficacité de la pression externe par la fascination technologique. La puissance visible des bombes suggère une efficacité évidente. On peut mesurer les tonnes larguées, exhiber la précision des bombes dites bunker busters, compter les infrastructures détruites.

Ensuite, on peut l’expliquer par une confusion entre choc initial et effet durable. Le Shock and Awe (le choc et l’effroi) produit un impact spectaculaire, mais celui-ci ne se traduit pas nécessairement en capitulation politique. Le cas irakien est ici exemplaire : après la campagne d’ouverture extrêmement spectaculaire et l’effondrement initial du régime de Saddam Hussein (2003), la coalition a fait face dans la foulée à une guerre prolongée de contre-insurrection (2003-2011).

Il faut aussi rappeler que les effets d’un bombardement ne dépendent pas uniquement des capacités détruites mais de la nature de l’adversaire : régime autoritaire ou démocratie, guerre conventionnelle ou insurrection, société fragmentée ou fortement cohésive. Une même campagne peut produire des effets radicalement différents selon le contexte.

Enfin, la stratégie aérienne est séduisante politiquement. Elle promet des résultats sans engagement terrestre massif et sans les pertes qu’il implique. Elle offre l’illusion d’une coercition à distance. Autant d’éléments que l’on semble retrouver dans le cas du conflit en cours avec l’Iran.

En Iran, une bascule politique ?

La guerre aérienne peut détruire des infrastructures et des capacités militaires, paralyser une économie, modifier un rapport de forces militaire. Mais elle est beaucoup plus incertaine lorsqu’elle vise des effets politiques tels qu’un renversement de régime, un effondrement moral ou une insurrection populaire.

Les frappes américaines contre des cibles iraniennes s’inscrivent officiellement dans une logique de dégradation capacitaire. Pourtant, elles nourrissent aussi l’espoir d’un affaiblissement politique interne. Or l’histoire nous invite à la prudence : la destruction matérielle ne se convertit pas mécaniquement en bascule politique, et les attentes placées dans ses effets indirects sont souvent exagérées.

The Conversation

Nicolas Minvielle est membre du comité d’orientation de La Fabrique de la Cité, et du collectif Making Tomorrow. Lieutenant Colonel de réserve au sein du Commandement du Combat Futur de l’armée de terre, il a été animateur de la Red Team Défense du Ministère des Armées.

ref. Pourquoi les bombardements suffisent rarement à faire chuter un régime – https://theconversation.com/pourquoi-les-bombardements-suffisent-rarement-a-faire-chuter-un-regime-277261

Why the Doomsday Clock has outlived its usefulness

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Martin Hébert, Full Professor, Département d’anthropologie, Université Laval

The Doomsday Clock — a symbolic device to signal an array of existential threats to the world since 1947 — was recently moved to 85 seconds before midnight, the closest it has ever been to midnight. And that was before all-out war broke out in Iran.

Created by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the Doomsday Clock first represented a slow descent into nuclear vulnerability, with midnight standing as the nuclear apocalypse. Nowadays, the clock includes other existential threats to humanity, including global warming, disruptive technologies or the erosion of the rules-based international order.




Read more:
Venezuela attack, Greenland threats and Gaza assault mark the collapse of international legal order


Mobilizing fear

Since its very beginning, the clock’s purpose was a call to action meant to shake world leaders — and the broader public by extension — awake from their complacency and indifference.

The aim of the Doomsday Clock was never to instil paralyzing anxiety. Quite the contrary, it sought to mobilize fear in a constructive way. It signals, implicitly, the hope that existential threats can be eradicated and the possibility that peril can be overcome, even if the odds are slim.

But over the years,, the Doomsday Clock has crept ever closer to midnight — first by minutes, then by seconds — heightening the sense of urgency while stopping short of the clock’s symbolic apocalypse.

Being mere seconds from catastrophe dramatically underscores the urgency of action, even as the shrinking margin to midnight heightens public anxiety.

We contend that this is the point where the narrative of imminent catastrophe becomes counter-productive: constant apocalyptic scenarios may dull perceptions of risk or be exploited to justify politics driven by urgency and fear.

Doomsday Clock flaws

The clock has long been subject to critics. Some have questioned its precision and called it showmanship. Others have described it as shaped by ideology.

But the first question we should ask of the Doomsday Clock is whether it fulfils its stated purpose: prompting transformative action to confront what are widely recognized as existential risks. It’s been argued that putting humanity on a permanent, blanket high alert isn’t helpful when it comes to formulating policy or driving science.

The narratives of nuclear war and impending apocalypse that underpin the Doomsday Clock have historically been used to project authority and justify dangerous politics of secrecy — legacies that have often come at the expense of public health and well-being.

For instance, during the Cold War, the U.S. strategically stoked a sense of urgency within its population against the potential threat of nuclear war with the Soviet Union.

During that time, education often blended with propaganda as schoolchildren were told to prepare themselves against potential nuclear attacks, learning from Bert the Turtle to “duck and cover.”

Worried citizens built bunkers in their homes as billions of dollars were pumped into the military industrial complex.

Those who criticized such preparedness measures faced accusation of anti-patriotism or of being communists underMcCarthyism and the Red Scare.

In the end, the sense of a looming apocalypse sacrificed the social and national security of Americans for a threat that never materialized. Ironically, in being fearful of being bombed, Americans exposed their own population to dangerous radioactive fallouts and material via nuclear tests and arsenal production.

How we define disaster

Obviously, complacency about the serious challenges the world is facing is not an option. But the idea that we are almost at the point of no return via the Doomsday Clock is no longer useful or helpful.

This is especially the case since the doom symbolized by the clock has become more abstract with time. Since it’s broadened beyond nuclear war, the clock struck midnight a long time ago for many people on the planet.

Recognizing the difference in experiences among privileged groups, for whom catastrophe remains a future prospect, and marginalized groups, who live in what has been described as a world of salvage, should prompt us to rethink how we measure and define impending disaster.

By calibrating the Doomsday Clock in ever-narrowing seconds, we construct an imaginative framework in which meaningful change is equated with turning the clock back. It may be more honest — and more useful — to acknowledge that we’re already living at the brink.




Read more:
How the Doomsday Clock could help trigger the armageddon it warns of


As militarism and fascism surged in 1935, Dutch cultural historian Johan Huizinga could have said Europe stood seconds from catastrophe. Instead, he took a different view: “We all know that there is no way back, that we have to fight our way through.”

The uncertainty and anxiety produced by being “seconds to midnight” via the Doomsday Clock can upset the balance between fear and hope. It risks normalizing the violence long endured by racialized and marginalized communities, while creating fertile ground for either opportunistic politics or irrational faith that events will simply resolve themselves.

At this point, action is stalled by the stubborn conviction that this cannot really be happening to us. Perhaps this is when the clock should strike 12 — not as an endpoint, but as a signal that the focus must shift from prevention to another mode of response. In many areas of life, acknowledging that a crisis has arrived is the first step toward recovery.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why the Doomsday Clock has outlived its usefulness – https://theconversation.com/why-the-doomsday-clock-has-outlived-its-usefulness-275409

Warships as diplomats: how the South African Navy is tasked with building ties with other nations

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By André Wessels, Senior Professor (Emeritus) and Research Fellow, Department of History, University of the Free State

A naval exercise off the South African coast in January 2026, dubbed Will for Peace and involving the warships of South Africa, China, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iran, elicited international and domestic controversy. It also contributed to a further souring of relations between South Africa and the US.

Under pressure at home, South Africa’s defence ministry appointed a board of inquiry to investigate whether an instruction by President Cyril Ramaphosa not to involve Iran had been defied.

The exercise and its controversies have placed the spotlight on the South African Navy’s diplomatic role. André Wessels, who has extensively studied the history of the navy, unpacks this role.

What is the Will for Peace 2026 exercise and what is the controversy around it?

Navies traditionally take part in training exercises with other navies. This enhances interoperability and builds mutual trust.

Over time, many foreign warships have visited South African ports, including 23 in 1961, 50 in 1968 and 41 in 1973.

However, in reaction to South Africa’s domestic policy of apartheid, foreign warship visits almost dried up between 1977 and 1989. Once South Africa became a democracy in 1994, foreign warships poured back into the country’s ports, for example 35 from 15 countries in 1997.

New alliances allowed the country’s navy to take part in exercises with the navies of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, Germany, India and Brazil, and Russia and China.

The January 2026 exercise was branded as one of navies belonging to the expanded Brics intergovernmental organisation. But, strictly speaking, Brics+ is not a military alliance. It is significant that India, Brazil, Indonesia and Egypt, which are members, did not send ships to participate, probably so as not to offend the US. But it was the first-ever visit by a UAE warship to South Africa.

Iranian “grey diplomats” (a term used to describe navy warships) had previously visited South African ports in 1970, 1972, 1974, 1975, and in 2016-2017.

The current geopolitical situation is challenging. There are tensions between the US and Iran (for, among other reasons, the latter’s nuclear arms ambitions); the Russia-Ukraine war continues; and diplomatic relations between the US and South Africa are strained (partly because of the Trump administration’s unproven allegations of a white genocide in South Africa). Given this situation, the naval exercise should not have taken place.

South Africa should as far as possible stay neutral in international affairs to, among other things, safeguard its economic interests. Furthermore, its navy had very little to gain and can ill afford negative publicity, especially when it transpired that the government had apparently asked that Iran not participate. The facts in this regard, however, must still be determined by a government-appointed board of inquiry.

What role can and should a navy play in a country’s foreign policy?

The traditional exchange of diplomats between friendly countries, reciprocal visits by heads of states and cabinet ministers, and the holding of summit meetings are not the only means of strengthening relations between countries.

It has been, for example, the practice of seafaring countries to send warships to one another from time to time. The South African Navy is no exception.

Since 1922, South African warships have undertaken numerous flag-showing cruises (meaning diplomatic visits) to many countries. These visits have nothing to do with “gun-boat diplomacy”, which is diplomacy backed by the threat of military force.

Warships play a very important role in diplomacy. The presence of a warship can be the most tangible and visible sign of bilateral and multilateral friendships. When ships of a navy take part in combined exercises or international humanitarian and peacekeeping missions, those ships can generate mutual trust. The warships become diplomatic tools of the highest national value.

It is indeed one of the stated aims of the South African Navy: to conduct, among other things, assistance operations, including diplomatic support.

What phases can be identified in the navy’s diplomatic role?

In 1946, the South African Naval Forces were reconstituted as a permanent part of the Union Defence Force. In 1951, it became the South African Navy.

The period 1946 to 1973 was a phase of normal relations with most countries in the west. There were 37 flag-showing cruises. This included 16 visits to European colonial possessions in Africa, six transoceanic deployments (to South America, Europe and Australia), and visits to many ports during the delivery voyages of 26 new vessels for the navy.

Then followed a phase of growing isolation (1974-1979) because of the internal political situation in South Africa over apartheid. In these years the SA Navy only undertook four flag-showing cruises.

The 1980-1987 period was a phase of total isolation as far as foreign visits by South African warships were concerned. The navy was from time to time (since 1975) deployed in a supporting role for the other arms of the South African Defence Force during the Namibian War of Independence (1966-1989), a conflict that spilled over into Angola.

Then followed a transitional phase (1988-1993), with political negotiations taking place from 1990 onwards. Gradually, ports opened up and no fewer than 19 flag-showing cruises took place.

With the birth of a democratic South Africa in April 1994, the country was officially welcomed back as a respected member of the international community. Over a period of three years (1994-1996), South African warships visited at least 29 ports in at least 23 countries during eight flag-showing cruises.

So, after years of isolation, the navy played a major role in establishing ties of friendship. It also established several new ties with African, Asian and South American countries.

Unfortunately, in the years 2018 to 2025, not a single tailor-made South African Navy flag-showing cruise took place, mainly because of budgetary constraints.

However, in February 2026, the warship SAS Amatola sailed to India for an international fleet review and to participate in Exercise Milan, involving the Indian and other visiting navies.

What does the future hold for the navy’s ‘grey diplomats’?

The primary role of the navy must always be to conduct operations in defence of South Africa. But in times of peace, it has an equally important role to play. This includes search and rescue, relief operations, assistance to state authorities, regional assistance operations and flag-showing cruises.

A warship is both a reflection and projection of the state it represents. It is, therefore, important that the ships are not undersized or under-equipped. A South African warship is South African territory afloat, and its presence in foreign waters sends a signal of support to the country’s allies.

Hopefully the navy will in future have at its disposal the necessary funds – and ships – to meet all the demands of its mission statement.

The Conversation

André Wessels in the past received funding from the National Research Foundation, but not since 2017.

ref. Warships as diplomats: how the South African Navy is tasked with building ties with other nations – https://theconversation.com/warships-as-diplomats-how-the-south-african-navy-is-tasked-with-building-ties-with-other-nations-275830

Un entorno oyente que no escucha es una barrera para las personas con pérdidas auditivas

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Celia Teira Serrano, Profesora Contratada Doctora. Grado en Logopedia. Facultad de Cc. de la Salud, Universidad Pontificia de Salamanca

Fotograma de la película _Sorda_. Filmafinnity

En el 2025 la audición ha tenido un papel protagonista en la cultura con películas como (Sorda) y el documental (El Canto de las Manos), que visibilizaron las continuas violaciones de derechos de la comunidad sorda y de las personas con pérdidas auditivas por parte del entorno mayoritario oyente. En ambos casos, los protagonistas utilizan las lenguas de señas o signos como código comunicativo, despertando de su letargo un antiguo debate entre oralismo y lengua de signos que encubre numerosos prejuicios.

Las personas con deficiencias auditivas constituyen un grupo muy heterogéneo en función del grado y localización de su pérdida, el momento de su aparición, las ayudas técnicas personales, el entorno familiar y la educación recibida, entre otros aspectos. Bajo términos como “sordera”, “hipoacusia” o “discapacidad auditiva”, se encuentran múltiples realidades, por lo que la identificación entre sí de personas con esta misma condición es a menudo compleja.

Sin embargo, en un estudio sobre barreras comunicativas realizado desde el Grado en Logopedia de la Universidad Pontificia de Salamanca, en colaboración con la Asociación de personas con discapacidad auditiva postlocutiva de Salamanca (SADAP) y con la Asociación de padres de niños sordos de Salamanca (ASPAS), las personas entrevistadas coincidían ampliamente en que algunas de las principales barreras comunicativas eran sus propios interlocutores oyentes.

En un mundo en el que los avances de la investigación y la tecnología se dirigen a mejorar las ayudas técnicas personales (audífonos e implantes) o a erradicar la sordera (terapias génicas), es decir, en el que se sigue poniendo el foco del problema y de la solución en las personas con capacidades diferentes, ¿qué podemos hacer los interlocutores oyentes para favorecer una comunicación eficaz?




Leer más:
La pérdida de audición, una epidemia silenciosa


Oralismo y audismo

Para entender muchas de las situaciones que viven las personas con pérdida auditiva en entornos educativos, profesionales, sanitarios, culturales o de ocio, es necesario familiarizarse con el oralismo y audismo imperantes. Estos remiten al privilegio del habla y la audición sobre cualquier otro sistema de comunicación.

La mayoría no solemos sentir el impacto de estas cuestiones precisamente porque no atentan contra nuestra identidad.

Lejos de querer hacer una especie de ablesplaining, explicando la experiencia de la discapacidad como si la tuviera, recojo aquí algunos de los ejemplos proporcionados por las personas entrevistadas: cuando te llaman en voz alta por tu nombre en cualquier sala de espera médica dando por hecho que los vas a oír, cuando los simulacros de incendios de tu entorno laboral solo cuentan con alarmas sonoras o cuando te atienden máquinas por teléfono que solicitan respuestas orales y no reconocen las características de tu habla.

La sordera es una discapacidad invisible, incluso para las familias. Numerosos entrevistados nos comentaban el síndrome de la mesa del comedor, espacio social por excelencia que se convierte en un lugar de intercambios comunicativos espontáneos donde apenas pueden participar las personas con pérdidas auditivas. Esto se debe al solapamiento de turnos o los continuos movimientos de cabeza que impiden la lectura labial, entre otros obstáculos.

Por otro lado, muchas personas con pérdidas auditivas postlocutivas, aquellas que se presentan tras haber adquirido el habla (por diferentes causas como la exposición a ruidos muy intensos o repentinos, el envejecimiento…), señalaban que sus familias no habían realizado un duelo con su imagen de persona oyente y seguían llamándoles desde otras habitaciones a gritos o hablándoles de espaldas.

Desde el modelo biopsicosocial de la discapacidad, la persona puede tener cualquier tipo de deficiencia, pero solo cuando no es funcional ante determinados entornos, por la existencia de barreras en los mismos, se habla de discapacidad. Una persona sorda signante no será discapacitada en un medio signante; una persona con pérdida postlocutiva no sentirá la discapacidad si existe accesibilidad y las personas alrededor incorporan los ajustes necesarios. La comunicación es bidireccional e interactiva. Los oyentes no deberíamos asumir responsabilidades y no constituir una barrera más.

Comunicación eficaz

¿Eficaz? Que logre el objetivo. ¿O efectiva? Que no solo se logre sino que además se optimicen recursos y tiempo. Nuevamente, va a depender de la persona emisora o receptora de la comunicación. El National Deaf Center de Estados Unidos utiliza de forma intercambiable comunicación eficaz y comunicación efectiva. Comunicarse de manera efectiva con personas sordas o con discapacidad auditiva implica asegurarse de que puedan participar en la conversación en igualdad de condiciones que las personas oyentes.

Los recursos y estrategias que se recomiendan tienen que ver con partir de preguntar a las personas sus necesidades particulares en cuanto a la comunicación, porque, efectivamente, cada persona cuenta con unos recursos, pero también con una historia previa de éxitos y fracasos comunicativos que solo ella conoce.

Otra de las sugerencias consiste en evitar los cambios bruscos conversacionales, debido al esfuerzo continuo que realizan las personas sordas y con pérdida auditiva por anticipar o suplir partes de la conversación. Con todo ello, lo que se pretende es una participación significativa que redunde en el establecimiento de interacciones positivas, de forma que refuerce sus identidades y genere un mayor bienestar general.

La Asociación de Personas con Discapacidad Auditiva Poslocutiva (SADAP) distribuye desde marzo de 2025 un díptico de comunicación eficaz con recomendaciones para los interlocutores oyentes. Estas son el resultado de las entrevistas anteriormente mencionadas y sugieren estrategias corporales y de habla relativamente sencillas, junto al cuidado de aspectos como la iluminación, el ruido, la importancia de los silencios o no anticiparse a las respuestas.

Es importante tener en cuenta que todas las personas podemos llegar a perder audición por diferentes motivos, pero uno ineludible es la edad. Cuanto antes empecemos a sensibilizarnos e incorporar los recursos, mejor, porque seguramente lleguemos a necesitarlos.

Ayer, 3 de marzo se celebró el Día Mundial de la Audición. Con el lema “De las comunidades a las aulas: cuidado de la audición para todos los niños”, tiene como fin prevenir las pérdidas auditivas a las que se estima que unos 2 500 millones de personas nos veremos abocadas hacia el año 2050, según la OMS.




Leer más:
La pérdida de audición, un desafío sanitario de primer orden


No en vano, la Confederación española de familias de personas sordas (FIAPAS) ha lanzado una campaña específicamente dirigida a la población más joven: la generación marcada por el ruido.

The Conversation

Celia Teira Serrano no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Un entorno oyente que no escucha es una barrera para las personas con pérdidas auditivas – https://theconversation.com/un-entorno-oyente-que-no-escucha-es-una-barrera-para-las-personas-con-perdidas-auditivas-274357

A Plan B for space? On the risks of concentrating national space power in private hands

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Johns Hopkins University

Commercial providers like SpaceX contract with NASA to fulfill the agency’s rocket launch needs. Bill Ingalls/NASA via AP

Private companies are no longer peripheral participants in U.S. space activities. They provide key services, including launching and deploying satellites, transporting cargo and astronauts to the International Space Station, and even sending landers to the Moon.

Commercial integration is now embedded in U.S. space policy and shapes national space strategy. As someone who studies space and international security, I have watched the extraordinary rise of commercial space with awe – and with growing concerns about the structural vulnerabilities it creates.

Access to space, particularly for crewed missions, remains heavily concentrated in one company, SpaceX. While the United States has begun developing alternatives, in operational reality that concentration gives the company disproportionate leverage. If private power and public strategy were to diverge, would Washington have a credible Plan B?

Commercial integration is now official policy

On Feb. 4, the House Science Committee approved the NASA Reauthorization Act of 2026, directing the agency to partner with American commercial providers for operations in low-Earth orbit, lunar landings and the transition beyond the International Space Station. In critical areas such as lunar landers, the bill requires NASA to work with at least two commercial providers – a deliberate effort to avoid dependence on a single company.

President Donald Trump’s December 2025 executive order expressed similar preference for prioritizing commercial solutions in federal space activities and set a goal of attracting at least US$50 billion in additional private investment in space by 2028. The U.S. Space Force’s 2024 Commercial Space Strategy also emphasizes speed and innovation through private partnerships.

Congress, the White House and the military are aligned: The government sets objectives, then private industry builds – and increasingly operates – the space systems. This shift has been bipartisan and explicit, and it has delivered results.

From cost savings to structural dominance

Its origins trace back to a moment of vulnerability.

After the retirement of the space shuttle in 2011, the United States temporarily lost independent human spaceflight capability. For nearly a decade, NASA relied on Russian Soyuz spacecraft, paying up to $80 million per astronaut seat, roughly $4 billion in total.

NASA responded by turning deliberately to commercial providers through the commercial crew and commercial resupply programs. The goal was pragmatic: to reduce costs, restore domestic launch capability and accelerate innovation. Under these programs, NASA provided funding and oversight while companies built and operated their own systems.

It worked.

Launch costs fell by almost 70% in some cases. The pace of launches increased.

SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, became central to this new architecture. Its Falcon 9 rocket now carries the majorityfive of every six – of U.S. launches to orbit. Since 2020, its Crew Dragon spacecraft has also routinely transported NASA astronauts, restoring the U.S.’s ability to launch people to orbit after a 10-year gap.

The top of a rocket with a conical capsule mounted on its tip.
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule mounted on top of a Falcon 9 rocket. Dragon carries astronauts to the International Space Station.
Paul Hennessy/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

In high-risk and capital-intensive space sectors such as launch and crewed transport, the development costs are enormous. Few companies can afford to compete. The company that makes reliable rockets first, and at a large scale, like SpaceX, wins contracts and consolidates its market share.

Efficiency and consolidation have given SpaceX dominance. This dominance, in turn, creates leverage – not because the company acts in bad faith but because alternatives are limited.

Market concentration is not inherently problematic. But strategic infrastructure – such as the access to space that underpins military operations, communications and critical national systems – is not a normal consumer market. When a single company controls most launches or operates the only crewed spacecraft, its financial troubles, technical setbacks or leadership disputes can disrupt the entire country’s strategic capabilities.

A table showing 3 columns: dimension, efficiency model and redundancy model. It compares the two models on cost, speed, structure, shock absorption and risk.
An efficiency model can maximize short-term performance, but it may leave the sector vulnerable to disruption if the leading player faces issues. A resilience model preserves the country’s long-term sovereignty.
Svetla Ben-Itshak and The Conversation U.S.

The Musk episode as a warning

In 2025, during a public dispute over government contracts and regulatory matters, Elon Musk briefly threatened to decommission the Dragon spacecraft – the vehicle NASA relies on to transport astronauts to orbit.

Musk quickly backed off his threat, and missions continued. No astronauts were stranded, but the moment was revealing.

At the time, Boeing’s Starliner capsule still faced technical delays. There was no fully operational alternative ready to assume the mission immediately. Even a short-lived threat exposed how tightly U.S. access to space had become linked to the stability of a single firm – and arguably a single individual.

Elon Musk standing in front of a vehicle with a 'SpaceX' decal.
SpaceX founder Elon Musk has grown more directly involved in politics since 2024. He once threatened to decommission his company’s Crew Dragon craft, which at the time NASA relied on for operations at the International Space Station.
AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes

So, is there a Plan B?

A credible Plan B for space does not mean abandoning commercial partnerships. It means ensuring that alternatives exist.

Historically, assured access to space has meant having more than one way to reach orbit. Today, that principle extends to crew transport, lunar logistics, satellite services and data infrastructure.

Congress appears aware of this. The current NASA reauthorization bill requires the agency to diversify providers in key programs, particularly lunar landers. The intent is to build redundancy deliberately into the system, making it more resilient to potential shocks.

But redundancy is expensive. Maintaining parallel systems, supporting multiple providers and preserving internal government expertise require long-term funding and political commitment. Markets alone likely will not guarantee diversification in these expensive sectors.

In February 2026, Congress moved to legislate greater diversification into U.S. space strategy. The intent is clear, but the timeline is not. It remains uncertain when, or if, the bill will become law.

For now, U.S. access to space, particularly for crewed missions, remains heavily reliant on SpaceX. Plan B exists on paper, but in reality it is still under construction.

Strategic permanence in space requires options

The stakes will only grow.

As the United States expands into cislunar space – the region between Earth and the Moon – and looks to establish a sustained presence on the Moon, its reliance on commercial providers will deepen.

Commercial dynamism has revitalized American leadership in space, but it has also revealed structural vulnerabilities. Durable systems rarely depend on a single center of power. In Federalist No. 51, James Madison, the fourth U.S. President, argued that stable political orders require competing forces so that “ambition must be made to counteract ambition.” His insight was political, but the logic can apply. Economic resilience emerges from balance, not concentration.

The United States has chosen a commercial path in space, and that choice has delivered extraordinary gains. But permanence beyond Earth will require a deliberate balance: multiple providers for critical services, overlapping capabilities, and alternatives robust enough to absorb shocks.

Commercial space can underpin American leadership in the new space age, but only if access to orbit, and beyond, never rests on a single, indispensable company.

The Conversation

Svetla Ben-Itzhak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A Plan B for space? On the risks of concentrating national space power in private hands – https://theconversation.com/a-plan-b-for-space-on-the-risks-of-concentrating-national-space-power-in-private-hands-275618

Are heroes born or made? Role models and training can prepare ordinary people to take heroic action

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Catherine A. Sanderson, Poler Family Professor of Psychology, Amherst College

Do you have what it takes to be a hero in the moment? Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Three young Americans – Anthony Sadler, Alek Skarlatos and Spencer Stone – successfully tackled a gunman on a train in France, saving passengers.

The journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna reported on Ukrainian citizens held unlawfully by Russia; she was captured and died in detention in Russia.

Welles Crowther, often known as the “man in the red bandana,” was a 24-year-old equities trader who guided numerous people in the South Tower on 9/11 to safety before ultimately dying when the tower collapsed.

All of these people are clearly heroes. They engaged in courageous behavior – and risked physical peril – to benefit others or in service of a broader moral cause.

Psychologists like me describe heroes as people who take some type of intentional action to help other people, even when they may experience a personal cost for doing so. As Stanford psychology professor Phil Zimbardo put it, heroism involves taking a personal risk for the common good.

In some cases, people who take these risks experience potentially negative social consequences such as disapproval, ostracism and career setbacks. I describe people who show moral courage, meaning they are willing to speak up even when they may incur such costs, as moral rebels. Moral rebels are willing to take actions like tell a bully to cut it out, call out a friend who uses a racist slur, or report a colleague who engages in corporate fraud.

But when people think about heroism, they often focus on physical courage, such as jumping into a frozen pond to rescue a drowning child, leaping onto subway tracks to help someone who has fallen, or grabbing a gun from a shooter. What enables someone to engage in this type of physically risky – even life-threatening – behavior?

The characteristics of a hero

People tend to think of heroes as having particular traits: fearlessness, bravery, strength and altruism, along with selflessness, wisdom and resilience. Does the empirical research match up with that common conception?

Researchers in one study compared personality traits among three different groups of non-Jewish adults who lived during the time of the Holocaust: those who had rescued at least one Jewish person, those who had provided no help, and those who left Europe before the start of World War II. Their findings provide clear evidence that heroes stand out in important ways.

People who risked their own lives to help Jewish people scored higher on risk-taking, meaning they felt more comfortable with danger. They also scored higher on independence and perceived control; they felt comfortable making a decision and then taking action. They also rated higher in traits expressing concern about others, including altruism, empathy and social responsibility.

close-up of man's face holding up a ribbon medal in the foreground
Governments commend everyday people who act heroically, like Canadian Medal of Bravery recipient Robert Walsh, a teacher who stopped a vicious physical attack.
Jim Wilkes/Toronto Star via Getty Images

Although the Holocaust is obviously a unique situation, other research on heroic behavior reveals a similar constellation of traits. For example, one study compared the traits of people who had received the Canadian Medal of Bravery – a national award given to people who have risked their own lives to save another person – to a control group of people who were similar in demographic characteristics. The researchers found that people who engaged in heroism shared particular traits, including greater confidence in their ability to act, a stronger ability to put themselves in someone else’s shoes, and more positive feelings toward other people.

These findings reveal that heroism is at least in part determined by who you are, and that it’s not just a single trait that matters. People who engage in various types of bravery tend to show a particular combination of traits. They feel comfortable taking action even when it involves danger and they feel compassion for other people.

The power of modeling

Although some people may have a greater predisposition to heroism based on their personality, situational factors also play a key role in inspiring heroic behavior.

One study by sociologists examined what motivated members of the majority Hutu population to risk their own lives to help members of the Tutsi population during the 1984 genocide in Rwanda. This analysis of in-depth interviews with people who reported saving at least one person from this violence – often by hiding someone in their own home – identified several key factors predicting their behavior.

First, one of the strongest predictors of whether people helped refugees was having parents or grandparents who had done so during previous episodes of violence in their country. As one man noted, he chose to act because of “what my parents had done in previous years.” People who have seen physical courage modeled by others are more likely to act in heroic ways.

This is strikingly similar to what motivated heroism in Nazi Germany. Historian Mark Klempner’s study of Dutch people who rescued Jewish children revealed that nearly all reported having a parent or relative who had consistently gone out of their way to help other people in different contexts.

Perhaps not surprisingly, religious beliefs also played a role in motivating heroic behavior during the Rwandan genocide. More than half of those in the study who rescued people mentioned the role that their faith played in this decision.

The third factor motivating this type of heroic behavior was social ties. People were far more likely to help friends or neighbors. These personal connections likely fostered greater empathy for people in need, which in turn motivated action, even when doing so created considerable risk.

The role of training

Although people with particular personality traits may have an easier time being brave, as do those whose relatives who modeled such behavior, heroism can also be acquired through training, which is good news for us all. People who take CPR classes, for example, know they have the skills necessary to step up during health emergencies and are therefore more likely to do so.

Two of those three American men who stopped a man with an assault rifle on a train had some type of military training; one served in the Air Force, and another served in the National Guard. Military training is designed precisely to help people become brave – so they can take action, even at great personal risk.

Realizing that heroes can be built through training led psychology researcher Phil Zimbardo to create the Heroic Imagination Project, which focuses on helping people develop the skills needed to step up and act heroically – whether defending what’s right in a work meeting or intervening with a bully at school. For example, children who participate in heroism training become more courageous, suggesting that anyone can learn to be braver.

Most importantly, this approach is based in the belief that heroism does not require a unique set of personality traits; instead, heroism occurs when ordinary people choose to step up in dangerous situations, even when doing so involves considerable risk.

As Matt Langdon, the executive director of the Heroic Imagination Project, notes, “the opposite of a hero is not a villain, but a bystander.”

The Conversation

Catherine A. Sanderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Are heroes born or made? Role models and training can prepare ordinary people to take heroic action – https://theconversation.com/are-heroes-born-or-made-role-models-and-training-can-prepare-ordinary-people-to-take-heroic-action-274505

The inspiring and tragic story of Mabel Stark, America’s most famous female tiger trainer

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Alessandro Meregaglia, Associate Professor and Archivist, Boise State University

Mabel Stark tamed tigers – and even wrestled with them. Circus and Allied Arts Collection, Illinois State University’s Special Collections, Milner Library

For the sharpest minds in show business, there’s always another hustle.

Take Joe Exotic, whose 2020 conviction for a murder-for-hire plot and violations of the Endangered Species Act hasn’t kept the eccentric tiger trainer out of the headlines.

Since beginning his 21-year sentence, the “Tiger King” star has started a cannabis brand, hawked digital art and begun work on an album tentatively titled “Jungle Rhapsody: A Tiger King Experience.” His most recent gambit involves selling personal phone calls from his cell – “What better Valentines gift could you ever get your loved one,” he posted on Instagram in January 2026.

But before Joe Exotic, there was Mabel Stark. Often described as America’s most famous female tiger trainer, the Tiger Queen was renowned for her pluck and charisma.

While researching Caxton Printers, the publisher of Stark’s autobiography, I came across unpublished archival material about Stark’s long career training animals. Like Joe Exotic, Stark had a knack for the spotlight. But even more impressively, she did it under the scrutiny of being a woman in a male-dominated world, while caring for her animals with love rather than fear.

From nurse to tiger trainer

Born Mary Ann Haynie in 1888 or 1889 – the exact year has always been a mystery – Stark grew up in Princeton, Kentucky. When she was 8 years old, she attended her first circus, where she was awed by the performances of trained animals.

Two decades would pass before she got a chance to try her hand at animal training.

Taking a vacation in California from her job as a nurse, Stark met Al Sands, manager of the Al G. Barnes Circus. After learning of her interest in training animals, he hired her on the spot.

Stark started by riding horses and training goats. It would take several years before she started working with tigers. But once she did, her career took off.

Crowds gathered to watch the “Tiger Girl” wrestle with big cats and wow audiences by commanding a dozen tigers at a time to follow her lead. Her wrestling act with her favorite tiger, Rajah – in which the duo would roll three or four times on the ground – became one of the best-known cat acts in the U.S.

She leveraged that success to join the Ringling Circus – the largest circus in the U.S. – for twice the pay.

As her popularity grew, Stark collaborated with screenwriter Gertrude Orr to write her life’s story.

Hold That Tiger” hit bookstores in 1938. Caxton Printers, a small publishing company in rural Idaho, issued the book and marketed it primarily to young readers. It proved popular, selling well enough to warrant multiple reprintings.

Known for giving a voice to first-time writers and authors from underrepresented groups, Caxton Printers found a niche market for circus-related titles. It also published books about Stark’s first employer, Al Barnes, as well as the Ringling Brothers and renowned lion trainer Louis Roth, who also happened to be one of Stark’s ex-husbands.

Female power in the ring

Stark was acutely aware of the path she was paving.

“I deliberately chose a field in which no other woman had specialized,” she wrote in her autobiography.

The conventional wisdom at the time, she added, was that “tigers were considered too dangerous for a woman to handle.”

Stark’s willingness to defy convention mattered. As circus historian Janet M. Davis noted, “circus women’s performances celebrated female power” and represented “a startling alternative to contemporary social norms.”

In early-20th-century American life, women might not have been able to vote or to serve on juries in most states, but in the ring, they commanded the audience’s attention riding bareback on horses, displaying strength and stamina, and performing gravity-defying acrobatic feats.

Stark’s schedule was relentless. She performed almost daily with traveling circuses, and she continually refined her act. In 1938, she worked with both tigers and lions at the same time, a first for a female trainer. She made history again working with 12 tigers in one cage.

A woman stands to the right of a tiger balancing on a chair with its front paws. In the background, a row of big cats pose on ledges.
Mabel Stark was able to work with 12 tigers in one cage.
Cinema Libre Studios

Whether it was due to the demands of her schedule or her preference for her cats, Stark’s relationships with men rarely worked out.

Over the course of her life, Stark married four times, three of which ended in divorce.

“I love these big cats as a mother loves her children,” she admitted to a friend. But “with husbands I was never happy.”

‘An animal trainer can’t have nerves’

Stark, aware of other trainers’ abusive behavior toward their tigers, took a different route.

“Kindness and patience are the biggest factors in training. … Trainers who try to beat animals into submission always get into trouble,” she said.

Yet her trade was not without danger.

“An animal trainer can’t have nerves. I haven’t had any since I gave up nursing,” she said in a 1922 New York Times interview. “They may be planting violets on me tomorrow, but while I have my health and strength, I’d rather take care of 10 tigers than a sick person.”

Stark had several serious accidents. Perhaps the worst was in 1928: After a circus train arrived late, Stark started her act without realizing her tigers hadn’t been fed for 24 hours. Two famished tigers attacked Stark after she fell in mud.

“As I lay there, helpless,” she wrote, “I wondered into how many pieces I would be torn, and how long it would take for the other tigers, growling and snarling restlessly on their seats, to finish me.” She suffered multiple broken bones, nearly lost her leg and required 300 stitches.

Woman holds a cup of tea while lying in a hospital bed.
Mabel Stark recovers in a Los Angeles hospital after her left arm was bitten by a tiger in 1935.
AP Photo/LMM

Another incident took place in 1950, when a tiger mauled her as she reached for its cub. Doctors initially thought they would have to amputate her arm but managed to save it.

Despite these close calls with her tigers, Stark maintained that “I am not afraid. I like the challenge of their roaring defiance.”

The stark reality

Stark toured with circuses until the late 1940s, when she was hired by Jungleland, a zoo located outside of Los Angeles.

Save for the three-and-a-half years she lived in Japan touring with her wild cat act, she spent the last 20 years of her career at Jungleland.

Stark never stopped drawing crowds to her show, nor did she shy away from the spotlight. She even appeared on the game show “What’s My Line?” in 1961 as a contestant whose profession the panel had to guess.

“Each year has left scars on my body, but it has also brought a full measure of happiness,” she recalled.
Stark worked at Jungleland until she was fired in 1967 after the park’s insurance company stopped covering her. Being away from her tigers devastated her, and she died by suicide just months later on April 20, 1968, at her home in Thousand Oaks.

The concluding paragraph of Stark’s autobiography anticipates the end of her life:

“The chute door opens as I crack my whip and shout, ‘Let them come!’ Out slink the striped cats, snarling and roaring, leaping at each other or at me. It’s a matchless thrill, and life without it is not worth while to me.”

The Conversation

Alessandro Meregaglia has received funding from the Idaho Humanities Council, the Bibliographical Society of America, and Boise State’s Institute for Advancing American Values for his research on Caxton Printers.

ref. The inspiring and tragic story of Mabel Stark, America’s most famous female tiger trainer – https://theconversation.com/the-inspiring-and-tragic-story-of-mabel-stark-americas-most-famous-female-tiger-trainer-276570

Formerly incarcerated Black men say they’re ‘doing OK’ while trying to cope with depression and PTSD

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Helena Addison, Postdoctoral Fellow, Yale University

Community-based walk-in clinics and behavioral health centers can help men returning from jail or prison find support. Jacob Wackerhausen/iStock via Getty Images Plus

“People can assess me, interview me, incarcerate me, observe me, and they can think they know what I need,” said Shawn, a man in his early 50s who spent 15 years in and out of prison. “And that can be an educated assessment, but at the end of the day, I live inside of this body, inside of this head. I know what I need.”

Shawn is one of 29 formerly incarcerated Black men living in Philadelphia I interviewed as part of my research on coping with the mental health effects of imprisonment. His name and the names of other people quoted in this article are pseudonyms chosen to protect their privacy.

I study incarceration, mental health and access to health care. I’ve previously written about how confinement in jails and prisons leaves a lasting impact on mental health. But I also wanted to understand how the men I interviewed recognized and addressed their own mental health needs — through coping strategies, conversations with friends and family, and seeking mental health treatment.

Depressed but ‘doing OK’

Both research and clinical practice often fail to accurately capture how formerly incarcerated Black men identify their own mental health needs. That’s in part because implicit bias and anti-Black racism shape how mental health is assessed and treated in both correctional and community facilities.

Most of the men I spoke with said the mental health evaluations they received while incarcerated were designed only to “check the boxes” and conveyed a sense that no one really cared.

“They’d listen. They’d ask the pertinent questions,” Malcolm, 62, explained. “Then they’d talk down to you. And then they forget all about you.”

A few of the men received diagnoses they didn’t understand or believe. John, 29, described how a judge ordered him to have a mental health evaluation and that he was diagnosed as having post-traumatic stress disorder.

“I didn’t take it serious,” he said. “I didn’t start understanding mental health and believing it until I was locked up for a long period of time. I started reading up on it and studying it. …That’s how I started understanding therapy was important.”

Comparing the way participants described their mental health in their own words during the interviews with standardized screening tools revealed an important pattern. Most described themselves as “good,” “blessed,” “at peace” or “doing OK.” Yet nearly all reported symptoms of depression, anxiety or PTSD.

More than half reported three or more PTSD symptoms, such as trauma-related nightmares or feeling constantly on guard and easily startled.

These findings underscore that what appears to be resilience or well-being on the surface may mask underlying mental health needs, and the way those needs are expressed is shaped by culture and life experiences.

Young Black man wearing brown sweatshirt looks thoughtfully out of a window.
An appearance of resilience may mask underlying mental health needs.
Maskot/Maskot Collection via Getty Images

Coping mechanisms

Participants described self-reliance as essential to coping with incarceration and life after release. Physical separation from family and community, along with strained relationships and limited resources after release, left many feeling like they had to manage mental distress on their own.

“When you’re in prison, you learn to depend on yourself,” Ken, 56, said.

Some said incarceration reinforced existing coping strategies they’d had, such as exercising, praying, journaling, reading and meditation.

“I was always into being active,” said Tay, 31, who took part in a military-style bootcamp while incarcerated. “I learned how to use [exercise] to cope with my emotions.”

Others were introduced to new coping skills through educational, vocational and recreational programs inside their correctional facilities. Men spoke about how earning GEDs, taking college courses, learning trades and participating in other structured programs helped them manage stress and connect with others.

Unfortunately, the availability of such programs is limited.

Bottled-up feelings

Many of my study’s participants described wanting to “do things differently” after incarceration by expressing their emotions rather than suppressing them.

Some directly connected bottling up feelings to behaviors that had led to their incarceration.

“[You’ve] let a lot of stuff build up and then [you’ll] go outside and lash out on the first person you see,” David, 30, explained. “I’m getting more comfortable with expressing myself, whether it’s to my mom or if it’s to a friend.”

But finding the right people to confide in could be difficult.

“I try to express myself every day. People laugh and make a joke out of it,” Shakur, 21, said. “If I had somebody sitting one-on-one, talking to me about my problems, I’d feel better.”

Navigating romantic relationships was also difficult.

“We come back to them broken. And they trying to fix us, but they don’t know how to fix us. They’re broken too,” said Thomas, 44.

Mass incarceration doesn’t just fracture individuals – it erodes romantic relationships, as those left behind often navigate their own economic strain, limited resources and emotional distress.

Participants emphasized that speaking with people who shared similar experiences made it easier to express themselves and helped them navigate moments of distress.

Deep distrust of institutions

Many participants expressed deep distrust of mental health treatment within correctional facilities.

“Being a Black man living to 62 years old, I don’t trust the government from the Tuskegee experiment to the thing they had going on in Holmesburg prison,” said Carl. “How can you put your trust in that?”

Older Black man in suit stands at presidential podium while grey-haired white man claps hands behind him
Herman Shaw, 94, shown here with former President Bill Clinton in 1997, was one of nearly 400 Black men who were part of a government study that began in 1932. The participants were told that they were being treated for syphilis, but they were actually given a placebo.
Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images

The Tuskegee study was a research study conducted by the U.S. federal government from 1932 to 1972. It followed Black men with syphilis but withheld effective treatment, even after the cure was made widely available in the 1940s. This caused preventable suffering and deaths.

During the Holmesburg Prison experiments, conducted at a Philadelphia prison from the 1950s through the 1970s, University of Pennsylvania researchers tested pharmaceuticals and chemicals on incarcerated men, many of them Black, without adequate informed consent.

Some of the men I interviewed also reported experiencing or witnessing mistreatment after reporting mental health concerns, and they expressed fears that seeking help while incarcerated would lead to punishment rather than support.

Stigma and seeking help

After release, participants shared concerns that they would be seen as “weak” by their peers for talking about their problems. This mental health stigma served as a barrier to seeking treatment.

“It’s not normal for guys like us, as far as being Black, African American, to reach out to a therapist,” said David.

Some men, like Antonio, who described feeling “like walls was closing in on me,” were motivated to seek treatment due to significant mental distress. Others were driven by a desire to improve their relationships with their wives or children.

Nearly 70% of participants had used formal mental health services at some point. Some were mandated to receive treatment, while others sought help voluntarily – sometimes at local walk-in clinics and behavioral health centers such as Wedge Recovery Centers, a Philadelphia staple that was mentioned by several participants but closed in May 2025 due to financial losses.

Communities can work together to reduce stigma around seeking mental health support and formal treatment, take expressions of mental distress from formerly incarcerated men seriously, and create spaces where they feel safe being vulnerable.

Participants named visible, neighborhood clinics with walk-in behavioral health services as places they felt able to go in moments of need. Increasing the visibility of these services, conducting outreach and integrating formerly incarcerated men as peer navigators can help build trust.

Read more of our stories about Philadelphia, or sign up for our Philadelphia newsletter on Substack.

The Conversation

Helena Addison received funding from National Institute of Nursing Research of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number F31NR020434, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration and American Nurses Association Minority Fellowship Program, the University of Pennsylvania’s Presidential PhD Fellowship, and Jonas Philanthropies to support this study and/or her PhD training.

ref. Formerly incarcerated Black men say they’re ‘doing OK’ while trying to cope with depression and PTSD – https://theconversation.com/formerly-incarcerated-black-men-say-theyre-doing-ok-while-trying-to-cope-with-depression-and-ptsd-275071