Congo-Brazzaville : après le plébiscite électoral, les défis de Denis Sassou Nguesso

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Ngodi Etanislas, enseignant-chercheur, Université Marien Ngouabi

Le scrutin présidentiel du 15 mars 2026 en République du Congo s’est conclu par la réélection de Denis Sassou Nguesso dès le premier tour, avec un score provisoire de 94,82 % des suffrages et un taux de participation officiel autour de 84,65 %.

Ngodi Etanislas, dont les travaux portent sur les enjeux électoraux et les recompositions politiques en République du Congo, explique à The Conversation Africa les enseigneemts à tirer de ce scrutin.


Quels sont les principaux facteurs politiques qui ont façonné le résultat de l’élection ?

La victoire de Denis Sassou-Nguesso avec un « score à la soviétique » de 94,82 % des voix exprimées n’est pas le résultat d’une compétition électorale ouverte. Elle est plutôt l’aboutissement d’un système politique bâti sur plusieurs décennies de consolidation du pouvoir depuis la fin de la guerre civile de 1997.

Plusieurs facteurs politiques clés peuvent être mis en avant pour justifier cette légitimation électorale.

Il y a, d’abord, la longévité politique de Denis Sassou Nguesso au pouvoir depuis 1979 (avec une interruption de 1992 à 1997). Cette omniprésence de plus de quatre décennies lui permet d’assurer un contrôle absolu de l’appareil politique, institutionnel et sécuritaire du pays, rendant l’alternance politique non seulement difficile, mais systémiquement peu probable.

Par ailleurs, le verrouillage du processus électoral, opéré notamment à travers le contrôle de l’appareil d’État et des organes de gestion des élections, a contribué à cette victoire.

L’élection s’est déroulée dans un contexte marqué par un rapport de force structurellement déséquilibré en faveur du président sortant. La campagne, très asymétrique, a pris la forme d’une véritable « tournée nationale », s’appuyant sur une stratégie de démonstration de force destinée à donner l’image d’un leader proche des populations.

Les divisions de l’opposition ont-elles eu un impact sur le résultat final ?

La fragmentation de l’opposition politique est sans doute le facteur le plus déterminant dans l’ampleur du score final de cette élection. L’opposition a abordé le scrutin en rangs dispersés, incapable de trouver un consensus pour une candidature unique, réduisant fortement les chances d’une alternance démocratique.

Le scrutin a été marqué par l’absence des figures historiques de la vie politique congolaise dont certaines sont toujours emprisonnées (Jean-Marie Michel Mokoko ou André Okombi Salissa ) et d’autres leaders ayant décidé de boycotter. Ils estiment que les conditions d’une élection libre et transparente n’étaient pas réunies. Ce boycott a vidé la compétition de tout enjeu réel. Il a contribué à la victoire dès le premier tour de Denis Sassou Nguesso qui avait obtenu en 2016 le score de 60,4 % des suffrages face à une opposition forte.

Pour de nombreux observateurs, les six candidats en lice, peu connus ou sans réelle assise politique, cherchant à assurer une certaine visibilité, ou mieux une légitimité politique aux yeux de l’opinion publique pour de prochaines batailles électorales, ne pouvaient pas faire face à Sassou Nguesso. Ils ont disposé de peu de moyens financiers pour se déployer sur l’ensemble du territoire et structurer les dynamiques locales sur le terrain pour défendre leurs projets de société.

Enfin, le black-out numérique marqué par la coupure totale des réseaux téléphoniques et d’Internet sur l’ensemble du territoire le jour du vote a contribué à l’opacité du processus. Il a créé un isolement informationnel sans précédent.

Cette mesure a permis de réduire la capacité d’organisation collective et de déploiement des délégués de l’opposition. Elle visait également à limiter la diffusion, sur les réseaux sociaux, de rumeurs sur les bourrages d’urnes, l’achat de consciences et d’autres contenus politiquement sensibles ou embarrassants pour le candidat sortant, qui craignait un fort taux d’abstention.




Read more:
Congo-Brazzaville : face à une opposition divisée, Sassou Nguesso en route pour prolonger son règne


Comment évaluez-vous la participation citoyenne et le rôle des électeurs dans ce scrutin ?

La participation citoyenne a été marquée par une désaffection électorale profonde. Celle-ci a été alimentée par le boycott de l’opposition et par le sentiment d’inutilité du vote chez de nombreux jeunes. Elle s’est également inscrite dans un climat de peur entretenu par l’environnement répressif, notamment les opérations menées au début du mois de janvier 2026 par la Direction générale de la sécurité présidentielle dans le département du Pool, ainsi que par les intimidations et répressions à l’égard des activistes et opposants.

La question de la participation électorale est au cœur de la controverse entourant ce scrutin.

Deux scénarios sont envisageables à ce niveau.

Le premier scénario est celui d’une mobilisation encadrée par le pouvoir, à travers les réseaux politiques, clientélistes et les structures locales du parti présidentiel et de ses alliés. L’objectif est de stimuler la participation afin de légitimer le processus électoral et renforcer la crédibilité des résultats.

Le deuxième scénario est celui du boycott du scrutin encouragé par l’opposition, pour parvenir à une faible participation, pouvant susciter des contestations politiques et des débats sur la légitimité du scrutin.

L’évaluation du scrutin du 15 mars 2026 met en évidence un contraste marqué entre les chiffres officiels et les observations de terrain, suggérant une participation citoyenne plus complexe qu’il n’y paraît. Le taux de participation officiel aurait ainsi bondi de près de 17 points. Il est passé d’environ 67,57 % en 2016 – lors d’un scrutin marqué par la présence de figures importantes de l’opposition – à 84,65 % en 2026, malgré un contexte de boycott généralisé.

Quatre constats peuvent être faits au sujet de la participation citoyenne à cette élection :

  • Un corps électoral autour de 2,64 millions d’électeurs inscrits sur les listes électorales, mais absent dans les bureaux de vote au regard de la faible affluence dans 6 620 bureaux de vote répartis dans 4 011 centres sur l’ensemble du territoire ;

  • Une abstention massive anticipée, confirmée par les observateurs nationaux et internationaux, malgré la forte mobilisation citoyenne constatée lors de la campagne électorale ;

  • Une démotivation totale des électeurs du fait de l’absence de candidats de taille, du manque de transparence et du verrouillage du processus électoral, ainsi que d’une participation asymétrique à travers la mobilisation forte des réseaux proches du pouvoir et la démobilisation des électeurs critiques.

  • Une mobilisation limitée, notamment par la faible affluence dans les centres urbains, le désintérêt marqué des jeunes et le sentiment répandu que “le résultat est connu d’avance”.

Le rôle des électeurs a oscillé entre adhésion et contrainte. Si certains ont soutenu Denis Sassou Nguesso par conviction ou fidélité politique, d’autres ont voté de manière stratégique sous l’effet de pressions sociales, administratives ou de logiques clientélistes.

Quels défis démocratiques le Congo Brazzaville doit-il relever après une cinquième victoire consécutive de Denis Sassou Nguesso ?

Cette réélection place la République du Congo face à des défis structurels majeurs. Pour que le pays sorte de la stagnation politique et sociale, plusieurs chantiers démocratiques s’imposent. Six défis majeurs se dessinent.

  • La restauration de la crédibilité électorale et l’indépendance des institutions constituent l’un des enjeux les plus sensibles. Elle met en lumière les lacunes concernant la gouvernance électorale, le manque de transparence, de caractère inclusif et d’équité constatées dans le cadre du scrutin de mars 2026.

  • La fiabilité des listes électorales, l’impartialité de la Commission nationale électorale indépendante (CNEI) et l’accès inégal aux médias posent des problèmes constants, sans audit indépendant effectif. Sans une réforme profonde du système électoral, l’abstention réelle et le désintérêt, notamment des jeunes, continueront de croître et de peser sur l’engagement citoyen et la participation politique.

  • La mise en place d’un espace politique pluraliste et d’une opposition viable en vue d’une recomposition du paysage politique congolais. Dans ce contexte, la libération des prisonniers politiques et la garantie d’un droit à l’opposition effectif seraient des conditions sine qua non de toute réconciliation nationale. L’élection de 2026 s’est déroulée avec une opposition largement “muselée” ou ayant choisi le boycott.

  • La protection des libertés fondamentales et de l’espace civique afin de répondre aux questions liées à la recrudescence des violations des droits humains dans un contexte d’absence de dialogue politique entre le régime, l’opposition, et la société civile.

  • La question cruciale de la succession et de la transition dans l’optique d’une conservation du pouvoir au sein de la majorité présidentielle et/ou de la continuité d’un nouveau mandat en 2031. À cela s’ajouteraient des scénarios de succession dynastique au sein de la famille présidentielle.

  • La réconciliation de la richesse pétrolière avec le développement humain pour un pays, où, près de la moitié de la population vit en dessous du seuil de la pauvreté. Le défi est de transformer la rente pétrolière en services publics (santé, éducation) et en opportunités pour la jeunesse.

  • La nécessité de reconnecter la participation citoyenne, notamment des jeunes aspirant au changement et la société civile au processus politique. La participation citoyenne demeure cruciale pour la légitimité du processus électoral.




Read more:
Cameroun, Guinée équatoriale, Congo : les guerres de succession menacent la stabilité régionale


Quelles implications cette élection pourrait-elle avoir pour la stabilité politique ?

Cette stabilité repose sur des équilibres précaires, notamment la faible légitimité du pouvoir perçue par une partie de la population, la méfiance envers le processus électoral et la frustration politique accumulée au fil des années. Elle s’appuie également sur la continuité des institutions et des élites au pouvoir, l’absence de rupture brutale et le maintien des équilibres internes.

La stabilité du pays repose actuellement sur un équilibre fragile maintenu par une forte centralisation du pouvoir et le renforcement de la mainmise institutionnelle.

La frustration de la jeunesse constitue un baromètre particulièrement préoccupant. Les enquêtes Afrobarometer réalisées en République du Congo en 2024 indiquent que les jeunes ont une faible confiance dans le système politique. Ce qui donne d’ailleurs l’impression d’un sentiment d’inutilité du vote, dont les résultats sont connus d’avance et que l’élection présidentielle ne changera rien dans leur quotidien.

Il y a aussi des frustrations du fait des problèmes de survie économique, le désenchantement face au chômage chronique et l’absence de perspectives économiques dans le pays.

La bataille interne au sein du parti au pouvoir pour “l’après-Sassou” pourrait devenir la principale source d’instabilité si aucun dauphin clair et consensuel n’émerge. Les dissensions internes constatées lors du Congrès ordinaire du parti en décembre 2025 montrent que les problèmes de succession demeurent au centre de la reconfiguration des équilibres internes au sein du parti au pouvoir et du repositionnement des élites dans le champ politique congolais.

L’élection présidentielle de mars 2026 a permis de consolider le pouvoir en place, sans pourtant résoudre les questions liées à la gouvernance électorale, à la participation citoyenne et à l’ouverture démocratique.

The Conversation

Ngodi Etanislas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Congo-Brazzaville : après le plébiscite électoral, les défis de Denis Sassou Nguesso – https://theconversation.com/congo-brazzaville-apres-le-plebiscite-electoral-les-defis-de-denis-sassou-nguesso-279000

Two verdicts in two days: How American courts are rewriting the rules for Big Tech and children

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Carolina Rossini, Professor of Practice and Director for Program, Public Interest Technology Initiative, UMass Amherst

Judge Bryan Biedscheid of New Mexico could order significant changes to how Instagram and Facebook operate. Nathan Burton/Santa Fe New Mexican via AP, Pool

Within 48 hours, the legal landscape governing social media and children shifted in ways that will take years to fully understand and verify.

On March 24, 2026, a Santa Fe jury ordered Meta to pay US$375 million for violating New Mexico’s consumer protection laws. The next day, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google’s YouTube negligent in the design of their platforms, awarding almost $6 million in damages to a single plaintiff.

The dollar figures are drawing headlines, but a $375 million penalty against a company worth $1.5 trillion is a rounding error. The award is less than 2% of Meta’s $22.8 billion net income in 2025. Meta’s stock rose 5% on the day of the New Mexico verdict, indicating how the market assessed the effect of the penalty on the company.

Fines without structural change are more akin to licensing fees than accountability. As a technology policy and law scholar, I believe the question of whether these verdicts will produce real changes to the products that millions of children use every day is more consequential than the jury awards.

The answer is not yet, and not automatically. A financial penalty does not rewrite a single line of code, remove an algorithm or place a safety engineer in a role that was eliminated to protect a quarterly earnings report. Meta and Google have signaled they will appeal, with First Amendment challenges to the product-design theory the likely central battleground.

The companies’ lawyers are likely to argue, with some justification, that the science linking the design of platforms to mental health harm remains contested, and that the companies have already implemented safety measures. In the meantime, Instagram, Facebook anf YouTube will continue to operate exactly as they did before the verdicts.

The verdicts against Meta pave the way for hundreds or even thousands of similar cases.

Consumer protection

Most coverage framing the New Mexico verdict casts it as a child safety case. It is that, but it also presents a more technically significant dimension: a consumer protection claim grounded in allegations of corporate deception. New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez did not sue Meta for what users posted, but instead sued Meta for its false statements about its own platform safety, employing a novel legal approach.

For three decades, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act has shielded internet platforms from liability for content generated by their users. Courts have interpreted Section 230 immunity broadly, and many earlier attempts to hold platforms accountable for child harm have foundered on it.

The New Mexico complaint, filed in December 2023, was drafted with explicit awareness of this obstacle. It asked a single question: Did Meta knowingly lie to New Mexico consumers about the safety of its products?

The jury’s answer was yes, on all counts, and its verdict rested on three distinct legal theories under New Mexico’s Unfair Practices Act.

The first was straightforward deception: Meta’s public statements, ranging from CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s congressional testimony claiming research about the platform’s addictiveness was inconclusive to parental guidance materials that omitted known risks of grooming and sexual exploitation, qualify as representations made in connection with a commercial transaction.

Users pay for Meta’s platforms not with money but with their data, which Meta then converts into advertising revenue. New Mexico successfully argued that this data-for-services exchange constitutes commerce under the state’s consumer protection statute, and that misrepresentations made within it are actionable regardless of Section 230.

The second theory was unfair practice, or conduct offensive to public policy, even if not technically deceptive. Here, the evidence centered on what Meta’s own engineers and executives knew and then ignored.

Internal documents showed repeated warnings. These alarm bells centered around child sexual abuse material proliferating on the platforms, about algorithms that amplified harmful content because it generated engagement, and about age verification systems that were essentially cosmetic. The company overrode those warnings for commercial reasons.

The jury was shown a specific sequence: Meta executives requested staffing to address platform harms, Zuckerberg declined, and the company continued to publicly represent its safety efforts as adequate.

The third theory was unconscionability: taking advantage of consumers who lacked the capacity to protect themselves. Children are the clearest possible case. Children cannot evaluate terms of service, cannot negotiate platform architecture, and cannot assess the neurological implications of engagement-maximizing design. Meta had comprehensive internal research documenting these vulnerabilities and chose to ignore rather than mitigate them.

Bellwether on addictiveness

The Los Angeles case, which concluded on March 25, tested a different theory. It was a personal injury trial rather than a government enforcement action.

The plaintiff, identified in court as KGM, is a 20-year-old woman who began using YouTube at age 6 and Instagram at age 9. Her lawyers argued that the platforms’ deliberate design choices such as infinite scroll, autoplay video and engagement-based recommendation algorithms were the causes of her addiction, depression and self-harm.

The jury found both Meta and YouTube negligent in the design of their platforms and found that each company’s negligence was a substantial factor in causing harm to KGM. Meta bears 70% of the liability; YouTube 30%. The individual $3 million compensatory award is modest. The punitive damages phase, still to come, will be calculated against each company’s net worth and is likely to produce a very different number.

six woman seated outside a building have facial expressions indicating surprise and happiness
An attorney for, and family members of, child victims of social media harms react to the verdict in a lawsuit in Los Angeles on March 25, 2026.
Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Beyond the general precedent, this case matters because it is a bellwether. It was selected from a consolidated group of hundreds of similar lawsuits to test whether a product-design theory of liability could survive a jury trial, and it did. That finding has immediate and concrete implications: Each of those plaintiffs now litigates on a stronger footing, and if the damages awarded to KGM are even partially scaled across similar cases, the total financial exposure for Meta and YouTube moves from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars.

More importantly, the bellwether verdict signals to every other plaintiff, attorney and state attorney general that this legal pathway is viable, and to every platform that the courtroom is no longer a safe harbor. The legal strategy established that negligence claims against platform design are viable in California courts.

Public nuisance

Beginning May 4, 2026, Judge Bryan Biedscheid in the New Mexico case is scheduled to hear the public nuisance count without a jury in a bench trial. Public nuisance is a legal doctrine traditionally used to address conditions that harm the general public. This doctrine has been used in concern over contaminated water, lead paint in housing stock and opioid distribution networks.

New Mexico is arguing that Meta’s platform architecture constitutes exactly such a condition. If the judge agrees, the remedy is not a fine. Instead, it is an abatement: a court order requiring Meta to eliminate the harmful condition.

Attorney General Torrez has already been explicit about what he will ask for: real age verification, not a checkbox asking users to confirm they are old enough; algorithm changes; and an independent monitor with authority to oversee compliance. These are structural demands on how the platform operates.

This is where drawing a parallel with Big Tobacco is apt. The tobacco litigation of the 1990s ultimately produced not just financial settlements but the Master Settlement Agreement, which imposed permanent restrictions on marketing practices and funded public health programs for decades. The public nuisance theory in the New Mexico case is designed to produce an analogous structural outcome for social media.

Precedent for tidal wave of cases

The significant effects of two verdicts are about evidence and precedent. For the first time, a jury has examined Meta’s internal documents – emails from engineers warning about self-harm, the rejected safety proposals and Zuckerberg’s personal decisions to prioritize engagement over protection – and returned a verdict that those documents mean precisely what they appear to say.

That finding, and the legal theories that produced it, is now part of the foundation on which 40-plus pending state attorney general cases, thousands of individual lawsuits and a federal trial later this year are likely to be built.

The abatement phase, beginning May 4, may prove more consequential than the dollar amounts. If the judge in the New Mexico case – or any judge in a subsequent case – orders real age verification, algorithm changes and an independent monitor, that would be a true structural change.

The Conversation

I was staff at organizations including the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Public Knowledge, and the Harvard Berkman Klein Center, which were funded by various foundations and companies. Refer to their websites for disclosures. I was a staff member in the connectivity policy team at Facebook (2016-2018). I am an advisory board member of non-profits, including Internet Lab (Brazil) and Derechos Digitales (Chile). I am a senior advisor (without any honorarium) at the Datasphere Initiative and Portulans Institute. More details at https://www.carolinarossini.net/bio

ref. Two verdicts in two days: How American courts are rewriting the rules for Big Tech and children – https://theconversation.com/two-verdicts-in-two-days-how-american-courts-are-rewriting-the-rules-for-big-tech-and-children-279401

What does China’s host bid mean for the High Seas Treaty?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Philippe Le Billon, Professor, Geography Department and School of Public Policy & Global Affairs, University of British Columbia

Delegates are meeting in New York for the third session of the preparatory commission (PrepCom 3) on the Agreement on Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ), also known as the High Seas Treaty.

After nearly 20 years of negotiations, United Nations member states adopted the treaty in June 2023. When it opened for signatures that September, 67 countries signed immediately. In January 2026, Morocco and Sierra Leone then became the 60th and 61st states to ratify, triggering the treaty’s entry into force.

The treaty is now international law. At the time of writing, 145 countries have signed and 85 have ratified.

The third session of the preparatory commission must now work through how the treaty will actually function. A key question in corridor conversations is: who should host the secretariat?

Every international treaty needs an institutional home. The High Seas Treaty is no different. It requires a secretariat to co-ordinate between parties, service meetings and manage information.

For months, Belgium and Chile were the only contenders, their bids quietly taking shape in the background of treaty negotiations. Then, in January 2026, China submitted a formal bid with Xiamen as the proposed host city. That announcement changed the optics of the negotiations.

The geography of diplomacy

A city with highrises and other buildings near a bay
Valparaíso in Chile is one of the three cities being considered to host the High Seas Treaty’s secretariat.
(Roz Lawson), CC BY-NC-ND

Where that secretariat sits may be seen as an administrative question, a matter of office space and convenience. It is not.

The location of secretariats, and diplomatic venues in general, shapes how they function in practice. It influences who gravitates toward the institution and which delegations can afford to attend. It sways what issues get quietly elevated and what institutional culture takes root. Location is a form of proximity and proximity is a form of influence.

Belgium has put forward Brussels, pointing to its dense ecosystem of international organizations and more than 300 diplomatic missions.

Chile has offered Valparaíso on an equity argument: Latin America has never hosted a universal-membership environmental secretariat and the Global South deserves a seat at the table.

China’s late entry adds a strong contender to the process.

Concerns about China’s influence

China has more at stake in how the high seas are governed than almost any other state. It has the world’s largest distant-water fishing fleet and has faced sustained international criticism over illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. It also holds more deep-sea mineral exploration contracts through the International Seabed Authority than any other nation.

It has been among the most assertive in defending its maritime claims, even when those claims have been rejected by international courts, including through declaring a “nature reserve” on the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

Though fishing controversially remains largely outside its scope, the BBNJ agreement intervenes in key pressure points, most notably through enforceable marine protected areas and new environmental standards for activities that have historically escaped meaningful oversight.

For some observers, that combination makes the secretariat bid difficult to reconcile. Lyn Goldsworthy, a veteran Southern Ocean researcher at the University of Tasmania, has pointed to China’s reluctance over the creation of marine protected areas in the Antarctic high seas. “If they are in that influential [position],” she told Dialogue Earth, “they can slow things down.”

Analysts at India’s National Maritime Foundation have raised the further risk of what they call procedural drift, the idea that formally neutral administrative practices can quietly embed particular governance norms over time.

However, the case is less clear-cut than it looks.

Giving China a stake in the treaty’s success

A coastal cityscape with tall glass buildings and smaller structures
China has proposed the city of Xiamen in Fujian Province as a potential host city for the High Seas Treaty secretariat.
(Unsplash/Letian Zhang)

Skepticism about China’s bid is understandable, but the case against it is weaker than it first appears. Begin with the international picture. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, has described the bid as a “significant escalation” in China’s engagement with global governance, one that signals the Chinese want to play an active role in shaping international rules.

If China’s institutional credibility is visibly tied to BBNJ’s success, it has more reasons to want the treaty to function. China has ratified the agreement. It joined the Port State Measures Agreement, the principal instrument targeting illegal fishing, despite late accession and uneven implementation.

Its navy is the fastest-growing maritime force in the world. Its financial, infrastructural and human capacity to run a serious international institution is not in question.

There is possibly an even more important dimension. Scholars focused on Chinese fisheries governance have documented the persistent tension between central government policy and the behaviour of provincial authorities and distant-water operators, a gap that domestic regulation has struggled to close.




Read more:
China is struggling to control its provinces as they expand distant-water fishing


International treaty commitments can, in principle, function as a mechanism for central governments to exert leverage that internal channels cannot easily provide. Whether the BBNJ treaty might operate that way for China is an open question, but it is one worth taking seriously.

A China genuinely embedded in the framework may behave differently within it than a China left on the outside. The UN’s 30-by-30 target to protect 30 per cent of the world’s oceans by 2030 depends heavily on what happens in the high seas. So does any serious effort to crack down on illegal fishing or establish enforceable marine protected areas in international waters.

None of this is a straightforward argument for or against China hosting. It is a narrower claim: that the case against it is weaker than it first appears because it assumes that Chinese involvement would inevitably hollow out the treaty’s environmental ambition. That assumption is not obviously correct.

What conditions that would make the treaty work rather than fail are not mysterious. The secretariat would need genuine independence in its leadership. Governance structures would need to be transparent and enforceable. The treaty culture would need to be robust enough to resist pressure from the host state and to be responsive to all parties. These are demanding conditions. They are also conditions being negotiated right now.

What is actually at stake

The formal decision on where to locate the secretariat will be taken at the first Conference of the Parties, expected in early 2027. The institutional architecture being built at PrepCom 3 will shape what kind of institution the secretariat becomes before that vote is ever taken.

The governance rules and independence provisions being drafted now will determine whether the hosting question is a story about institutional capture or about the diligent implementation of a treaty that covers nearly half the planet.

The BBNJ agreement is a test of something larger than ocean governance. It is a test of whether international institutions can still function as common ground as the United States withdraws from international organizations and treaties.

Where the secretariat sits is not a technicality. It is about whether the high seas remain a global common in practice, not just in name, through an institution operating with independence, credibility and authority.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What does China’s host bid mean for the High Seas Treaty? – https://theconversation.com/what-does-chinas-host-bid-mean-for-the-high-seas-treaty-279317

‘I didn’t come here to get rich’: new research on the lives of Ukrainian women in Georgia’s surrogacy boom

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Olga Oleinikova, Associate Professor and Director of the SITADHub (Social Impact Technologies and Democracy Research Hub) in the School of Communication, University of Technology Sydney

Jonas Gratzer/LightRocket via Getty Images

“I didn’t come here to get rich. I came because I had no other way to keep my son safe and care for my displaced family”.

Anna is a 28-year-old woman from eastern Ukraine. She fled the country in 2023 after Russian troops invaded. Two years later, she agreed to become a surrogate in Georgia for wealthy foreign couples.

We met Anna, who was already pregnant, in a quiet apartment that had been rented for her by a surrogacy agency on the outskirts of the capital, Tbilisi.

Our multidisciplinary team was in Georgia to conduct a pilot research project examining the small country’s rapidly expanding surrogacy industry.

We conducted in-depth interviews with Ukrainian women to better understand their motivations for entering surrogacy arrangements, their experiences within the system, and the social, economic, and legal factors shaping their decision-making and wellbeing.

We also analysed publicly available policy and regulatory documents from the government to examine how the sector operates. We paid particular attention to emerging regulatory challenges, gaps in oversight and the state’s efforts to balance economic opportunity with ethical and human rights considerations.

The shifting geography of surrogacy

Surrogacy laws vary widely around the world. Some countries, including Australia, prohibit commercial surrogacy. Others allow it under specific conditions. These differences create cross-border markets, where intended parents travel abroad to access services that are restricted, expensive or unavailable at home.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest commercial surrogacy hubs. Estimates suggest between 2,000 and 2,500 babies were born each year through surrogacy arrangements.

War disrupted the industry. Clinics closed or relocated. Travel became dangerous. Media outlets reported on intended parents struggling to reach newborns and surrogates displaced by fighting. Georgia became a safe alternative.

The Beta Fertility clinic run by the New Life Georgia surrogacy agency in Tbilisi in November 2023.
Photo by Marie Audinet / Hans Lucas via AFP

International surrogacy has been legal in Georgia since 1997. That’s when the country adopted legislation allowing both gestational (a woman carrying an embryo not genetically related to her) and traditional surrogacy (a woman carrying an embryo for another couple using her own egg). The first children were born through gestational surrogacy around 2007.

The country’s clear legal framework – recognising intended parents as the child’s legal guardians from birth and granting no parental rights to the surrogate – has been a key factor in its appeal.

Costs are also significantly lower than in the United States. As independent international surrogacy consultant Olga Pysana told us:

In the last year, surrogacy in Georgia cost approximately US$55,000 to $85,000 (A$78,000 to A$120,000), whereas surrogacy in the United States can cost as much as US$250,000 (A$350,000).

With international demand surging in the 2010s, Georgia (a small country of 3.7 million people) quickly became unable to meet the needs of so many parents with local women alone. So clinics began recruiting potential surrogates from abroad, including from Ukraine, Central Asian countries, Russia, Belarus, Thailand and the Philippines.

Mobile surrogates

Several of the women we interviewed had previously worked with Ukrainian agencies. After the invasion, recruiters contacted them again – this time offering placements in Georgia.

Displacement has produced a new and economically vulnerable workforce. We describe these women as “mobile surrogates”: women who move across borders to provide reproductive labour in response to war, economic crises or changing surrogacy laws. “If there was no war, I would never have left,” Anna told us.

Most of the women we interviewed had lost homes, jobs or partners. Many were supporting children and extended family members across borders. Anna had worked in a shop before the war, then cleaned houses in Poland. “Surrogacy in Georgia pays in nine months what I would earn in years,” she said.

Our research found that surrogates are typically paid around US$20,000 (A$35,500) in instalments. For families displaced by war, this amount of money can cover rent, relocation costs and schooling.

A surrogate undergoes an ultrasound scan at the Beta Fertility Clinic in Tbilisi, Georgia, in November 2023.
Marie Audinet/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty images

But the arrangements come with strict contractual conditions. Women may face limits on travel, their diets and daily routines. Some live in shared apartments organised by agencies.

Independent legal advice is rare. Anna signed a contract in a language she did not fully understand, but felt she had little alternative: “I just needed something stable. I couldn’t keep moving from place to place”.

Georgia’s legal framework says little about labour standards, housing conditions or long-term health support for surrogates after birth. The result is an imbalance: strong protections for intended parents, and weaker safeguards for the women carrying babies.

A draft bill was introduced in 2023 aimed at curbing paid surrogacy for foreigners, due to growing concerns about the commercialisation of the industry and potential exploitation of surrogate mothers. However, it is still pending. As of early 2026, surrogacy remains legal in Georgia for foreign heterosexual couples.

Three trends we are seeing

First, reproductive markets are highly responsive to crises. When Ukraine’s industry became unstable, demand shifted rapidly to Georgia. Global fertility markets operate like other transnational industries: when one site contracts, another expands.

Second, economic inequality shapes who participates. Displacement and financial insecurity increase women’s willingness to enter demanding reproductive arrangements.

Third, the surrogates bear the brunt of regulatory ambiguities and associated risks and challenges. This includes dealing with contracts and medical procedures in languages they don’t understand.

Reform is needed

In Georgia, clearer labour protections are essential: minimum housing standards, transparent payment schedules, and mandatory, independent legal advice in a language surrogates understand. Health coverage for the women should also extend beyond birth.

The major markets for surrogacy services, including China, the US, Australia, Israel, Germany and others, should also review how their citizens engage in overseas surrogacy. This includes stronger regulation of agencies marketing abroad and clearer ethical guidance for intended parents.

Finally, greater international coordination is needed. Shared standards for cross-border surrogacy would improve transparency and accountability in a rapidly expanding and loosely regulated global market.

As demand grows, the central question is not whether cross-border surrogacy will continue, but whether it can be governed in ways that safeguard fairness, transparency and the rights of the women whose bodies sustain it.

The Conversation

Nothing to disclose.

Olga Oleinikova and Polina Vlasenko do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘I didn’t come here to get rich’: new research on the lives of Ukrainian women in Georgia’s surrogacy boom – https://theconversation.com/i-didnt-come-here-to-get-rich-new-research-on-the-lives-of-ukrainian-women-in-georgias-surrogacy-boom-276173

Trump is remaking the US media in his own image – and smashing accountability with it

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Rodney Tiffen, Emeritus Professor, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

This is the point of absurdity we have reached: on March 15, US President Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post, asserted that American news organisations were running AI-generated Iranian propaganda, and should be charged with treason for the dissemination of false information. One of the instances he cited was coverage of Iranians at a rally to support new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, which he said was totally AI-generated, and the event never took place, despite abundant evidence to the contrary.

The most powerful man in the world is making large and important claims, one palpably false, the others without offering any evidence, and it seems few if any people take him seriously. Then he blithely threatens to charge unnamed people with treason, which in the United States is potentially a capital offence, and again it is not clear anyone takes him seriously. Despite the all-but-universal dismissal of his statements, he will probably suffer no political consequences. It is just another drop in an ocean of unaccountability.

One reason it will pass with negligible consequences is that these accusations have become so commonplace. Republicans have long railed against the “liberal” news media, but the Trump administration has brought such attacks to a new level of intensity.

In 2017, his first year in office, Trump denounced “fake news” and called the media the enemy of the American people. He said he had a “running war” with the media, and described journalists as “among the most dishonest human beings on Earth”.

Trump’s standard response to a question he doesn’t want to answer is to call the reporter (especially female reporters) a nasty person, or to denounce the organisation they work for. Recently his response to a US ABC reporter’s question was that her employer “may be the most corrupt news organisation on the planet. I think they’re terrible.”

As the war with Iran threatened to become more politically contentious, the administration has trained its rhetorical sights on the media. Trump endorsed Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr’s threat to revoke broadcast licences of “the corrupt and highly unpatriotic media”:

They get billions of Dollars of FREE American airwaves, and use it to perpetuate LIES, both in news and almost all of their shows, including the Late Night Morons, who get gigantic Salaries for horrible Ratings.

Far more than any of his predecessors, Trump concerns himself with individuals and media organisations. For example, he thought Netflix should dismiss one of its board members who had worked for his Democrat predecessors Barack Obama and Joe Biden: “Netflix should fire, racist, Trump deranged Susan Rice IMMEDIATELY.”

A history of legal action

Trump has gone beyond rhetorical denunciations, however. He is the first US president, in recent times at least, to sue a news organisation. His targets so far have included the Pulitzer Prize Board, the Des Moines Register and its pollster Ann Selzer, the Wall St Journal, the New York Times, Penguin Random House and the BBC.

Without exception, his writs have no legal merit. (He has already lost suits against the New York Times, Washington Post and CNN). They are a means of harassment or perhaps just a threat: Trump sued CBS in 2024 over the editing of a 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris. Initially CBS said the case had no merit. However, in July 2025 it agreed to settle for $16 million.

The agreement came amid CBS parent company Paramount’s $8.4 billion merger with Skydance, which received regulatory approval weeks later. Stephen Colbert, host of its top-rating night show, called it “a big fat bribe”. Three days later Colbert’s show was cancelled, which the network said was purely a financial decision.

Trump congratulated himself in a post on his Truth Social site under the headline “President Trump is reshaping the media”. He listed 12 media organisations and individuals who are “gone”, such as CNN reporter Jim Acosta and Colbert. Then he listed a dozen “reforms”, such as CNN having new ownership. He finished the post with the word “Winning”.

Apart from the president, the most enthusiastic member of the cabinet in harassing the media is former Fox News presenter, now secretary of war, Pete Hegseth. Last year he announced that journalists who solicited unauthorised military information would have their access revoked and be deemed a security risk. Fifty-five out of 56 accredited journalists refused to sign the new agreement. In March a judge ruled the policy was unconstitutional but the government has said it will appeal.

Recently, Hegseth thought photos of him were “unflattering”, so photographers were banned from his next two briefings.

So it is not surprising Hegseth has been a vocal critic of media coverage. He finished one recent tirade by saying: “The sooner David Ellison takes over [CNN], the better.”

Ellison at the wheel

What is new and alarming about this is the reference to Ellison. It follows one of the biggest corporate takeovers in history. Ellison’s company, Paramount Skydance, has just succeeded in taking over Warner Bros Discovery. CNN is part of the package Ellison has acquired.

David is the son of Larry Ellison, the sixth-richest person in the world, who founded Oracle, a wildly successful software company. After Trump became president, the Ellisons moved into media in a big way.

The family first attracted public prominence when it was a central part of Trump choreographing the formation of a US TikTok company. Biden, with the approval of Congress, had sought to ban the popular video-sharing platform because of worries about security with the Chinese company ByteDance. Instead, Trump, on his first day of this second term, started a process to make it US-based, to remove the security risk.

In the end, Ellison’s Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX became the three managing investors, each holding a 15% share in the new company. The Chinese company ByteDance retained 19.9% of the joint venture. Oracle would also handle all the software aspects. All up, a very Trump-friendly outcome.

The Ellisons next attracted attention in July 2025, when their niche media company Skydance merged with Paramount to form Paramount Plus. This made them the owner not only of one of the biggest film studios but also of TV network CBS. The consequences for CBS news have already been far-reaching.

Ellison began by pledging to end the company’s “diversity equity and inclusion” initiatives. He appointed as ombudsman the former head of a conservative think tank and named Bari Weiss, a centre-right advocate, as editor-in-chief of CBS News.

An early controversy hit with a CBS 60 Minutes episode on a notorious prison in El Salvador, where the US government is sending migrant detainees. Although it was cleared through all the normal internal processes, the story was blocked at the last minute in what the reporter called an act of censorship. It was shown four weeks later.

Six out of 20 evening news producers have left CBS, with one, Alicia Hastey, saying the kind of work she came to do was increasingly impossible, as stories were now evaluated not just on their journalistic merit but on whether they conform to a shifting set of ideological expectations.

In a missive to the newsroom, Weiss declared “we love America” should be the guiding principle for the relaunch of CBS Evening News. Putting this into practice, the new anchor of the evening news, Tony Dokoupil, finished one program by saying “[Secretary of State] Marco Rubio, we salute you”.

Ellison’s early acquisitions were dwarfed by the recent battle between Paramount Plus and Netflix to take over Warner Bros Discovery, which Paramount finally won in February 2026. Paramount’s final, winning offer valued the company at US$111 billion (A$159 billion), paying US$31 (A$44) per share. Months earlier, Netflix’s original offer was US$19 (A$27) per share. Assuming the deal goes through, Paramount will carry an estimated US$90 billion (A$128.6 billion) of debt, but it will also have a conglomerate of media-related holdings like no other company in history.

Despite the size of the takeover, which has several implications for reduced competition, commentators are confident it will achieve regulatory approval. This is principally because in the Trump era there is a strong, shall we say, transactional flavour about when regulation is enforced and when not. Trump has described the Ellisons as “two great people”. “They’re friends of mine. They’re big supporters of mine. And they’ll do the right thing.”

Media monsters

In the 1950s, looking at the way Australian newspaper companies came to control the new commercial radio and television stations, journalist Colin Bednall referred to “media monsters”. Around 1990, British media commentator Anthony Smith wrote a book titled The Age of Behemoths, looking especially at the way large corporations such as News Corp had gone international.

But both were talking about media pygmies compared with the new mega-corporation owned by the Ellisons. Apart from their software business and extensive real estate holdings, they now have a central player, TikTok, in social media. They own two of the biggest five US movie studios, they have two of the biggest five streaming services, they have large entertainment producing corporations in Discovery, Warner Bros and CBS, and they own two of the most important TV news services – CBS and CNN.

This gives them the usual commercial advantages over smaller newcomers trying to break in. It also means the news services are owned by a conglomerate that has many other interests, including some that demand negotiation with the government.

In trying to understand the moment we are living through, it is often difficult to disentangle what is of momentary significance and what of lasting importance. What are egomaniacal histrionics that will fade into history with Trump? And which signal ongoing threats to the fabric of democratic institutions?

The unprecedented media empire built by the Ellisons will not disappear, no matter who wins the next election.

The Conversation

Rodney Tiffen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Trump is remaking the US media in his own image – and smashing accountability with it – https://theconversation.com/trump-is-remaking-the-us-media-in-his-own-image-and-smashing-accountability-with-it-279107

A Bible Belt track without a pulse – it’s no surprise fans hate the 2026 FIFA World Cup song Lighter

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Brent Keogh, Lecturer in the School of Communications, University of Technology Sydney

The release of the first FIFA World Cup 2026 song Lighter by American country artist Jelly Roll, Mexican singer Carín León and Canadian producer Cirkut, has left an odd taste in the mouth of fans, like waking up in the back of a Chevy truck after accidentally downing a bottle of bargain-bin bourbon.

As the United States, Canada and Mexico prepare to host the World Cup in June, the change in genre from “world-infused” pop to Bible Belt-style country-rock reflects the awkwardness of the tournament being hosted in an increasingly isolationist America.

Themes of unity and diversity

Since the early 1990s, FIFA World Cup songs and anthems have usually reflected something of the local flavour of the host country while simultaneously promoting the ideals of global unity.

For example, the 2022 song Hayya Hayya promotes the ideal that “we are better together”. It vibrates with the rhythmic complexity of North African folk traditions, before moving into a more commercial reggae groove.

Jennifer Lopez and Pitbull’s 2014 song, We are One, incorporates Brazilian inflections in an otherwise characteristically in-your-face Pitbull dance track. Nevertheless, the global sentiment remains: “it’s your world, my world, our world today, and we invite the whole world, whole world to play”.

Similarly, Jason Derulo’s 2018 World Cup track Colors (also a Coca Cola promotional song), celebrates national pride – “I’m going to wave my flag” – while also declaring “there’s beauty in the unity we’ve found”.

Where is the excitement?

Though Lighter is a collaboration between the three host countries, it marks a significant musical shift from the characteristic European, Latino and “World” inflected pop of previous songs.

There have been other stylistic shifts in the past. The 2006 World Cup track was Time of Our Lives, a slow operatic pop ballad by Il Divo and Toni Braxton.

But Lighter isn’t another example of this. It isn’t a ballad – yet it still lacks the high energy buzz of fan favourites such as Shakira’s Waka Waka (2010 South Africa World Cup), Santana’s Dar Um Jeito (We Will Find a Way) (2014 Brazil World Cup) and Ricky Martin’s The Cup of Life (1998 France World Cup).

The usual rhythmic vitality of a World Cup song is stripped back to a country-rock dirge with an odd, almost tokenistic Spanish bridge – an offering that might more appropriately feature in a Trolls World Tour. Fans are not having it.

As one user in the YouTube comments asks: “La emoción, la pasión y el ritmo mundialista, dónde está todo eso?” (“The excitement, the passion and the World Cup rhythm, where is all that?”).

Roll between the Lord and the Devil

Lighter has also been criticised for its religious allusions. One listener bemoans: “It’s a football tournament, but let’s make a song about church choirs, Chevy trucks, chains and muddy boots”.

Although past World Cup songs have contained religious allusions, Lighter’s odd sense of the sacred is more like trying to pass off a Lord Elrond action figure as a statue of Saint Anthony.

The song is replete with the forced language of a sinner’s conversion (“chains don’t rattle no more”, “lay my burdens down”), as analogous to the flow-state of a footballer, free from whatever personal or collective trials that might have been holding them back.

As in many a good country song, the protagonist is involved in a cosmic battle for his soul.

Jelly Roll is “praying [his] way out of […] hell”. He even has a run in with the Devil, although he doesn’t trade his soul for musical talent. Rather, he escapes the Devil’s attempts to “catch” him as his boots have left the ground.

You could be forgiven for questioning whether this song was about football at all, or whether it is more reflective of Jelly Roll’s own personal conversion story (he has recently been open in proclaiming his faith in Jesus).

In Lighter, the collective “we” of previous World Cup songs has been replaced with the individualistic “I” – the local taking precedence over the global.

The elephant in the room

Now, to be fair, there are some aspects of Lighter that align with the values of its predecessors. One key theme of the song is the sense of the fight, of overcoming obstacles, and gaining individual freedom. This aligns with FIFA’s stated purpose of the song, which it says was “created for the most inclusive FIFA World Cup in history”.

However, with ICE agents likely to be haunting football stadiums like dementors – and strained relationships between the US and neighbours such as Venezuela, Mexico, Canada and Cuba (not to mention Iran) – it is questionable whether FIFA’s goals of inclusivity will be felt and realised.

Instead, Jelly Roll and Carín León’s country-rock tune seems to more accurately reflect the current US administration’s isolationist approach to global foreign policy: we know we’re in the world, but we’d rather not be.

Perhaps the next World Cup song in 2030 will bring back the excitement, passion and rhythm that fans love, and reiterate the globalist ideals of the game. For now, Lighter remains a missed penalty shot.

The Conversation

Brent Keogh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A Bible Belt track without a pulse – it’s no surprise fans hate the 2026 FIFA World Cup song Lighter – https://theconversation.com/a-bible-belt-track-without-a-pulse-its-no-surprise-fans-hate-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-song-lighter-279111

I went to CPAC and found Trump supporters unhappy about Iran, Epstein files and the economy, even while the fans at the MAGA conference celebrate his immigration policies

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alex Hinton, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology; Director, Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University – Newark

Attendees wearing MAGA merch stand next to an image of Trump at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas, on March 25, 2026. Leandro Lozada AFP/Getty Images

There is a pall over the Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement. Donald Trump overpromised. His public support has fallen. Some “America First” die-hards now openly criticize him.

Amid war, economic challenges, democratic backsliding, the Epstein files and Americans shot dead in the street by government agents, Trump’s support is softening and his vow to bring a “golden age of America” is looking more like a political winter for Trump and his MAGA movement.

This is my big takeaway from this year’s annual Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC. The event, organized by the American Conservative Union, launched with an international summit on March 25, 2026, and runs through March 28 in Grapevine, Texas.

Don’t get me wrong. The attendees are decked out in red, white and blue MAGA merch: sequined “Trump” purses and jackets, USA flag bags, ties and headbands, and, of course, iconic red MAGA caps. As always, they chant “USA,” even if not as often or as loudly as before.

Starting with the first talk by Rev. Franklin Graham, speakers here are still singing Trump’s praises. They underscore what they regard as major Trump 2.0 accomplishments: combating illegal immigration, cutting taxes, a budding economic boom, deregulation, U.S. gas and oil output surging, administrative state winnowing, pro-Christian policies and pulling the plug on the “woke” agenda.

These issues are foregrounded in sessions with titles like “Walls Work,” “Don’t Let Woke Marxists Raise Your Children,” “MAGA vs. Mullah Madness,” “Commies Go Home” and “Cancelling Satan.” In between, pro-Trump advertisements checklist Trump’s accomplishments.

This rose-tinted view is to be expected. After all, CPAC – a cross between a political rally, networking mixer and MAGA Comic-Con – is all about galvanizing the conservative base. Beneath the surface, however, MAGA is churning.

A man wearing a skullcap with a photo of Donald Trump on it stands at a table in a conference hall.
An attendee visits a stand at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas, on March 26, 2026.
Leandro Lozada/AFP via Getty Images

Major grievances

An anthropologist of American political culture and author of the book “It Can Happen Here,” I have been studying MAGA for years and attending CPAC since 2023. Attendees at last year’s CPAC, held a month after Trump’s inauguration, were jubilant, with nonstop talk of “the comeback kid” and “the golden age.”




Read more:
I went to CPAC as an anthropologist to see how Trump supporters are feeling − for them, a ‘golden age’ has begun


Why is the mood at this year’s CPAC more subdued?

Enthusiasm for Trump is dampened because some of his supporters feel he has betrayed America First principles, failed to fulfill key campaign promises and been unable to supercharge the economy. Here are their major grievances:

‘America First’ vs. ‘Israel First’

America First” is the guiding principle of MAGA. It encompasses border security, prioritizing the U.S. economy and ensuring rights such as free speech. It also means avoiding unnecessary wars.

This is why Trump’s support of the June 2025 “12-day war” on Iran led Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other MAGA influencers, who have tens of millions of followers, to criticize Trump. The conflict, they contend, served Israel’s interest – their phrase is “Israel First” – not those of the U.S.

Their criticisms became even more pronounced after the U.S. again began bombing Iran on Feb. 28, 2026. The criticism is part of a growing MAGA fissure with pro-Israel stalwarts such as conservative activists Mark Levin, Laura Loomer and Ben Shapiro, who support U.S. intervention in the Middle East. Things got so bad that after Levin called his fellow conservative media personality Megyn Kelly “unhinged, lewd and petulant,” she dubbed him “Micropenis Mark.”

A man casually dressed in a t-shirt, plaid shirt over that, a black baseball cap and sunglasses stands in a convention center room.
Former Proud Boys chairman Enrique Tarrio is seen at CPAC in Grapevine, Texas, on March 25, 2026.
Leandro Lozada/AFP via Getty Images

But the MAGA unease with the war extends well beyond the “America First” influencers.

It includes figures from the fringe far right such as provocateur Nick Fuentes, center-right “brocaster” Joe Rogan, and even the Trump administration itself – as illustrated by an intelligence officer whose resignation stated, “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

Notably, none of the main Trump critics have been scheduled to speak at this year’s CPAC. Some now call it “TPAC,” or the Trump Political Action Conference.

The Epstein files

MAGA also has a strong populist and anti-elite streak of conspiracy thinking.

Large numbers of Trump supporters, for example, believe there is an elite plot to what they call “replace” the white population with nonwhites through mass immigration. Many also bought into the QAnon conspiracy theory, which centers on the idea that Trump is fighting Satanic, deep state elites who are running a child sex trafficking operation.

On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to take down political, deep state and global elites. He also promised to release the Jeffrey Epstein files, which QAnon conspiracists and others believe prove elite debauchery, including pedophilia.

Trump didn’t deliver. He backtracked and stonewalled on the release of the Epstein files, raising MAGA suspicion that Trump himself is implicated or is protecting elites. Remarkably, one recent poll found that roughly half of Americans, including a quarter of Republicans, believe the Iran war was partly meant to distract from the Epstein files.

Economy and immigration

Trump is also facing headwinds on the bread-and-butter issues of the 2024 election: the economy and immigration.

At CPAC, speakers have repeatedly given him kudos for shutting down the border. Acknowledging the MAGA in-fighting, conservative commentator Benny Johnson said he wanted to “white pill” – or buck up – the audience by reminding them that Trump had stopped an “invasion” and brought “criminal alien border crossings down to zero.”

As a photo of Trump’s bloodied face after the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024, was displayed, Johnson claimed, “Our God saved President’s Trump’s life for this moment.”

But fewer Republicans approve of his handling of immigration compared with a year ago. Like many Americans, a growing number have misgivings about the strong-arm tactics used by government immigration enforcement agents in places such as Minnesota.

For many, the economy remains a serious worry. A recent poll, conducted before the Iran war, found that the vast majority of Americans, including large numbers of Republicans, are concerned about inflation, jobs and the cost of living. Health care, including the lost Obamacare subsidies, is also a source of consternation.

Few people believe the economy is “booming” – let alone that a “golden age” has arrived – as Trump and his allies often proclaim. The war with Iran, which has led to stock market declines and gas pump hikes, has only added to the unease.

MAGA ‘shattered’?

Amid the recent MAGA in-fighting about the Iran war, conservative podcaster Tim Pool proclaimed, “The MAGA coalition is shattered.”

Not exactly. Despite the many challenges Trump is facing, the vast majority of his MAGA base voters still support him – including almost 90% backing his war with Iran.

But Trump’s support has eased in several ways. First, even his hardcore supporters worry about the economy, and they want him to declare victory and exit the war. And second, Trump has lost support on the edges. Many people in the key groups with which he made crucial inroads in the last election – such as young men and nonwhite voters – have turned from him. The same is true for independents and other Trump voters who don’t identify as MAGA.

Trumpism isn’t dead, as the MAGA-merched crowds here at CPAC make clear. But Trump is struggling through a political winter that could signal the early stages of his MAGA movement’s decline.

The Conversation

Alex Hinton receives funding from Alex Hinton receives funding from the Rutgers-Newark Sheila Y. Oliver Center for Politics and Race in America, Rutgers Research Council, and Henry Frank Guggenheim Foundation.

ref. I went to CPAC and found Trump supporters unhappy about Iran, Epstein files and the economy, even while the fans at the MAGA conference celebrate his immigration policies – https://theconversation.com/i-went-to-cpac-and-found-trump-supporters-unhappy-about-iran-epstein-files-and-the-economy-even-while-the-fans-at-the-maga-conference-celebrate-his-immigration-policies-278856

Landmark lawsuit finds that social media addiction is a feature, not a bug

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Quynh Hoang, Lecturer in Marketing and Consumption, Department of Marketing and Strategy, University of Leicester

A Los Angeles jury has delivered a landmark verdict: Meta and YouTube were negligent in the design and operation of their platforms, causing a young woman known in court documents as Kaley, or KGM, to become addicted to social media.

The tech giants must now pay her a total of US$6 million in damages – $3 million compensatory and $3 million punitive.

She claimed the platforms’ design features got her addicted to the technology and exacerbated her depression, anxiety, body dysmorphia and suicidal thoughts.

The jury found that Meta bore 70% of the responsibility and YouTube 30%, meaning Meta will pay $4.2 million and Google’s YouTube $1.8 million. Both companies have said they will appeal.

The verdict came a day after a separate New Mexico jury ordered Meta to pay US$375 million for failing to protect children from predators on Instagram and Facebook.

Kaley filed her lawsuit in 2023, when she was 17. She claimed that she began using social media as a young child and alleged that features such as infinite scroll, autoplay, algorithmically timed notifications and beauty filters were addictive.

TikTok and Snap were originally named as defendants but settled before the trial began for undisclosed sums. Meta and YouTube proceeded to a seven-week trial in Los Angeles Superior Court.

The case is the first of three bellwether trials scheduled in the California state proceedings – test cases selected to gauge how juries respond to the core legal arguments – drawn from a pool of more than 1,600 plaintiffs, including over 350 families and 250 school districts.

The outcome of this first trial was always likely to have consequences far beyond one young woman’s case.

Bypassing big tech’s legal shield

The legal strategy that made this trial possible was a deliberate departure from previous attempts to sue social media companies. Historically, platforms have been shielded by Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act, which protects internet companies from liability for content posted by their users.

The plaintiff’s lawyers sidestepped this entirely by arguing that the harm arose not from what users posted, but from how the platforms were engineered – treating Instagram and YouTube as defective products rather than neutral publishers.

The jury heard internal Meta documents that proved damaging. One memo read: “If we wanna win big with teens, we must bring them in as tweens.” Another showed that 11-year-olds were four times as likely to keep returning to Instagram compared with competing apps, despite the platform’s own minimum age requirement of 13.

A former Meta engineering director turned whistleblower, Arturo Béjar, testified about how features like infinite scroll exploit the brain’s reward system. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg himself took the stand – his first jury testimony on child safety – and was questioned about his decision to retain beauty filters despite internal research flagging their impact on young girls’ body image.

The jury rejected the companies’ central defence: that Kaley’s struggles were primarily the result of a difficult home life and pre-existing conditions rather than platform design.

In finding that the companies had acted with “malice, oppression or fraud”, they opened the door to the additional punitive damages that brought the total to US$6 million.

Both companies will appeal, and the process could take years. In the meantime, a second important trial is scheduled for this summer, and a separate federal case in Oakland involving school districts is also advancing. The pressure on platforms to settle the thousands of remaining cases will grow considerably.

Long-term impact?

For users, the immediate practical picture is less clear. Meta and YouTube are unlikely to make significant changes to their platforms while the appeals process plays out. Any redesign – if it comes – is likely to be incremental and carefully managed to minimise disruption to the engagement model that drives their revenues.

But there is a harder question the verdict does not answer: will it actually change anything? Meta and YouTube are companies worth hundreds of billions of dollars. A US$6 million damages award is not going to restructure the attention- and surveillance-driven economy.

My research on digital overuse – based on in-depth interviews with digital users and studies of online communities discussing digital overuse and detox – shows that even people who are fully aware of the problem and genuinely want to reduce their screen time find it extraordinarily difficult to do so.

This is not because they lack willpower, but because the features driving compulsive use are not bugs in the system. They are the system, built to maximise engagement and advertising revenue.

For years, big tech has placed the burden of managing screen time squarely on individuals and parents – encouraging screen time limits, digital detoxes, and parental controls while continuing to engineer products specifically designed to defeat exactly that kind of self-regulation.

The jury has pushed back against that logic. Whether courts, regulators, and legislators will push hard enough to force genuine structural redesign remains to be seen. However, the European Commission has already made the preliminary finding that TikTok’s addictive design features are in breach of the EU’s Digital Services Act.

What this verdict does, at minimum, is shift the ground. For the first time, a jury has confirmed what researchers have argued for years: this is not a story of weak willpower or bad parenting. It is, at least in part, a story of deliberate product design. That matters – even if the real fight is still to come.

The Conversation

Quynh Hoang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Landmark lawsuit finds that social media addiction is a feature, not a bug – https://theconversation.com/landmark-lawsuit-finds-that-social-media-addiction-is-a-feature-not-a-bug-279390

Iran was always going to close the Strait of Hormuz

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

This is the text from The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email. Sign up here to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.


The five-day deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz handed to Iran by Donald Trump on Monday expires some time tomorrow and the Islamic Republic needs to “get serious before it is too late” – or so the US president has announced on his TruthSocial platform.

You’ll recall that this deadline replaced another deadline which was due to expire on Monday night, after which the US and Israel would obliterate Iran’s power plants and plunge the country into darkness. Happily Trump pulled back from this plan, reporting that talks were progressing very well, so he would extend the deadline until March 27.

For their part, Iranian officials denied that negotiations were even underway, while US officials said contacts were at a very early stage. This has prompted speculation that the US president was seizing even the most informal of contacts as an “off ramp” to save face over not following through with his threat.

Certainly Trump’s oft-repeated assurance that the war in Iran has been won and that Iran’s senior officials (whoever remains after Israel’s highly successful campaign of assassinations) are “begging” the US to make a deal looks a rather optimistic assessment from the US president.

Far from collapsing in a heap after the death of the former supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, the regime is showing its resilience. Its targeting of US installations in the region are hurting the Gulf states and there are signs that Israel’s Iron Dome is fracturing in parts under the volume of Iranian missile attacks (this reportedly also happened during the 12-day war last year). Conservative estimates are that the war is costing the US and Israel more than US$1 billion £740 million) a day.


TruthSocial

But it has been Iran’s ability to shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that has arguably turned this into a world war, despite the unwillingness of many of America’s allies, particularly in Europe, to get involved. An estimated 20% of the world’s gas and oil transit the strait each day along with other vital supplies. Or at least it did before the end of February. Now very little is getting through and the consequences are being felt globally.

It’s not as if the US and Israel couldn’t anticipate that Iran would react to their attacks by closing down the strait. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, an expert in Iranian history at the SOAS, University of London, walks us through nearly five decades in which Iran responded to every crisis by threatening to close the strait. Is is, he argues, a key plan in Iran’s security policy.




Read more:
Iran has been threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz for years – it’s a key part of Tehran’s defence strategy


Meanwhile, it appears that the US is dusting off a 15-point peace plan it developed in May last year and which has already been rejected by Iran.

Critics say the chances of Iran acquiescing to the plan were negligible then and remain so now. It calls for Iran to give up all its uranium and agree to hand control of its civil nuclear programme to an outside panel. And, controversially, it seeks to control what Iran spends the money it gains if sanctions are relaxed.

This has prompted analysts to ask whether this plan was simply produced to give the US an explanation as to why it changed its mind over hitting Iran’s power plants. Bamo Nouri and Inderjeet Parmar, experts in international politics at City St George’s, University of London, think it the resurfacing of this plan is the strongest indication yet that Washington is beginning to fear that it has become embroiled in an unwinnable war.




Read more:
‘Girl math’ may not be smart financial advice, but it could help women feel more empowered with money


Certainly this conflict has not gone the way Trump and his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu might have wanted. But – as with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this should have been predictable. Jason Reifler, a political scientist at the University of Southampton, asserts that the US in particular, has embarked on this conflict with no clear goals or thought-through strategy.

Map of Straits of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important waterways, with 20% of the global trade in oil flowing through a narrow maritime channel.
Wikimedia Commons

Failing to ask for authorisation via the United Nations (and for America, the the US congress) was a bad start, meaning the war had a legitimacy deficit from the word go. The reason for launching the conflict has veered from halting Iran’s nuclear programme to regime change and back again. And the strategy of assassinating Iran’s leadership has produced a rally-round-the-flag effect that few had anticipated.

Add to that the devastatingly effective use of drones by Iran (which the war planners in the US and Israel must surely have picked up on from the experience in Ukraine), means that the two countries are often forced to counter munitions worth US$20,000 with missiles worth millions of dollars. Meanwhile, the pain from Iran’s closure of the closing the strait will only get worse.




Read more:
Iran war lacks strategy, goals, legitimacy and support – in the US and around the world


Holy war?

The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, held a religious service at the Pentagon yesterday, at which he called on god to “grant this task force clear and righteous targets for violence”. Hegseth appears to see this as a holy war in which he has clearly cast himself as a crusader, even sporting a tattoo reading, “Daus vult” (god wills it) – reportedly the rallying cry for the attempt to “liberate the Holy Land” in the 11th century.

Toby Matthiesen, senior lecturer in global religious studies at the University of Bristol observes here the way in which all parties to this conflict have used religion to garner support. Of course, claiming the approval of one’s chosen deity is a time-honoured tactic that even Nazi Germany tried. But it feels a little incongruous in the 21st century.

You could be forgiven for thinking that the sight of Donald Trump in the middle of a prayer huddle in the Oval Office was an amusing oddity. But Benjamin Netanyahu’s reference to the Old Testament story of the Amalekites, whom god told the children of Israel to annihilate, “men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys” is frankly chilling. Parts of the Islamic world has flocked to Iran’s defence (although not with particular enthusiasm in the Sunni countries of the Gulf, which Iran is bombarding with ballistic missiles).




Read more:
God on their side: how the US, Israel and Iran are all using religion to garner support


Trang Chu and Tim Morris, meanwhile, believe that this conflict has been nearly five decades in the making. Just as Iran has always denied the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state, many people in the US and Israel have long been committed to the destruction of Iran as a theocracy. Accordingly the way the two sides talk about each other has hardened over the years. Language on each side no longer reflects a criticism of their adversary’s behaviours, it has become a verdict on their moral character.

So to Iranians, the US is the “Great Satan”, while Iran is described in America as part of an “axis of evil”. Our experts believe that, this language “not only describes the enemy, but actively participates in creating it”. The observe that once you start to think these sorts of things about your adversaries, the idea of engaging in negotiation tends to become secondary to the desire to simply defeat or destroy them. Which is terribly dangerous, as we’re seeing.




Read more:
How the words that Iran and America use about each other paved the way for conflict



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The Conversation

ref. Iran was always going to close the Strait of Hormuz – https://theconversation.com/iran-was-always-going-to-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-279371

Cómo las especies invasoras remodelan silenciosamente los ecosistemas

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Elena Angulo, Científico titular del CSIC, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC)

Introducidas en las islas, las cabras pueden alterar el paisaje en detrimento de las especies locales. Eduardo Bena/Shutterstock

Cuando se mencionan las invasiones biológicas, solemos pensar en un duelo dramático: un depredador foráneo que llega para erradicar a una presa nativa. Sin embargo, este enfoque en la extinción directa oculta una realidad mucho más insidiosa. Gran parte de las invasiones más devastadoras no se limitan a eliminar especies; remodelan el entorno alterando los hábitats, reconfigurando las interacciones y modificando los procesos de una forma que no se puede reflejar únicamente en las listas de especies invasoras.

Tomemos como ejemplo las cabras o los conejos –que alteran desde la dispersión de semillas hasta la capacidad de reforestación natural–, introducidos en islas de todo el planeta. Aunque su voracidad puede, efectivamente, llevar a la flora local a la extinción, su impacto cala más hondo. Estos herbívoros invasores despejan el sotobosque, aceleran la erosión y modifican los regímenes de incendios, dejando cicatrices en el paisaje mucho después de que los rebaños hayan desaparecido. Estos trastornos sistémicos amenazan la biodiversidad de forma tan profunda como la pérdida de una sola especie.

Por eso, a la hora de evaluar el impacto de las invasiones biológicas no basta con considerar únicamente sus efectos en la flora y fauna nativas como hace la clasificación del impacto ambiental de taxones exóticos (EICAT, por sus siglas en inglés) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza. Como advertimos en un reciente estudio, generan un espectro de impactos que se extiende mucho más allá.

Ingenieros de los ecosistemas

Hemos catalogado 19 tipos distintos de impactos ambientales. 12 de ellos afectan a niveles superiores al de la especie: las comunidades, el funcionamiento de los ecosistemas o las condiciones abióticas, tales como el ciclo de los nutrientes, la estructura del hábitat o las propiedades físicas del suelo y del agua.

La omisión de estos efectos es crítica porque muchas especies invasoras actúan como “ingenieros de los ecosistemas”. No se limitan a habitar un entorno, sino que lo modifican activamente, influyendo en el destino de comunidades enteras. Por ejemplo, los conejos, al igual que ciertas hormigas, transforman el ecosistema que invaden de manera total, desde el suelo y la vegetación hasta la fauna.

Para capturar este matiz, hemos desarrollado una herramienta de evaluación complementaria: EEICAT, la clasificación extendida del impacto ambiental de las invasiones biológicas.

Del invasor a la invasión

EEICAT es una evolución: aporta una expansión necesaria a las evaluaciones de impacto. Basada en el modelo EICAT, desplaza la unidad de evaluación de la especie invasora al evento de invasión.

Bajo este nuevo marco, ahora se pueden tener en cuenta los 19 tipos de impactos, y a una población invasora se le pueden asignar una o varias categorías de gravedad en cualquier nivel ecológico. Con EEICAT, podemos revelar los efectos sobre las especies nativas, las comunidades, los procesos e incluso las condiciones abióticas del ecosistema. Se trata de un enfoque basado en cada invasión, y no en el invasor de forma global.

La necesidad de esta distinción es evidente en los ecosistemas acuáticos invadidos por el mejillón cebra (Dreissena spp.). En innumerables lagos y ríos, estos moluscos amenazan a las poblaciones de mejillones nativos mediante la competencia y la bioincrustación (su acumulación), un impacto clásico bien recogido por las evaluaciones estándar. Pero simultáneamente, transforman el ecosistema acuático en sí mismo: al filtrar partículas, reducen la turbidez, alteran los ciclos de nutrientes y desencadenan cambios en cascada en la vegetación y en las redes tróficas. EEICAT nos permite mapear tanto el golpe directo a la biodiversidad como la reingeniería sistémica del lago o del río.

Muchos mejillones de cebra formando un aglomerado en la orilla del mar
Mejillones cebra.
Sam Stukel (USFWS)/Flickr



Leer más:
Especies invasoras: sus efectos positivos no son un argumento para su indulto


Una lógica similar se aplica al medio terrestre. La hormiga argentina (Linepithema humile) es tristemente célebre por eliminar a las hormigas nativas, simplificando las comunidades hasta convertirlas en ciudades fantasma donde, prácticamente, solo habita esta especie invasora. Pero su influencia es mucho más profunda. Al perturbar los mutualismos entre plantas e insectos, estas invasoras alteran la dispersión de semillas, la polinización, los ensamblajes de invertebrados e incluso los procesos del suelo. Estos efectos indirectos a nivel ecosistémico varían considerablemente según el clima y la integridad del ecosistema receptor.




Leer más:
¿Y si llevamos una hormiga loca en la maleta?


Dos hormigas juntan sus bocas mientras la cabeza de otra aparece un poco más abajo
Hormigas argentinas intercambiando fluidos (trofalaxia).
Davefoc/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

El contexto lo es todo

El reino vegetal ofrece, quizás, el argumento más claro a favor de este enfoque. Las especies de acacia, introducidas en todo el mundo, manifiestan su influencia de maneras radicalmente distintas. En Sudáfrica, actúan como supresores agresivos de la flora nativa y transformadores de la química del suelo mediante el enriquecimiento de nitrógeno. En la Europa mediterránea, la misma especie puede ejercer una presión competitiva moderada, pero modificar profundamente los regímenes de incendios, la acumulación de hojarasca y la hidrología.

Árbol con flores amarillas en un paisaje verde con un muro de piedra
La mimosa (Acacia dealbata) es una especie autraliana que se ha establecido en otras partes del mundo y se comporta como especie invasora, por ejemplo, en Galicia y el norte de Portugal.
Certo Xornal/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

Adoptar EEICAT no significa reinventar la rueda. Podemos apoyarnos en las décadas de estudios de impacto que ya existen. Este marco recoge un conjunto más amplio de categorías que abarcan los niveles biológico, ecosistémico y abiótico. Utiliza los mismos cinco niveles de gravedad, desde Preocupación Mínima hasta Impacto Masivo, y con las mismas reglas de decisión.

Debido a que esta metodología se basa en la invasión, nos permite rastrear cómo una misma especie se comporta de manera diferente según la región, o cómo varios invasores acumulan su presión sobre un mismo ecosistema.

Gestionar la realidad, no solo las especies

Al adoptar el marco EEICAT, podemos finalmente capturar toda la magnitud de los efectos de las invasiones biológicas en los ecosistemas y adaptar las estrategias de gestión a las realidades complejas del mundo vivo, invasión por invasión.

Las invasiones biológicas no se resumen solo en la pérdida de especies; son también una reescritura silenciosa de los ecosistemas. Desde la química del suelo hasta la frecuencia de los incendios forestales, sus impactos resuenan en el medio ambiente mucho después de su llegada.

The Conversation

Elena Angulo recibe fondos de la Junta de Andalucía, proyectos de Excelencia.

Franck Courchamp recibe fondos de AXA Research Fund.

Laís Carneiro recibe fondos de AXA Research Fund.

ref. Cómo las especies invasoras remodelan silenciosamente los ecosistemas – https://theconversation.com/como-las-especies-invasoras-remodelan-silenciosamente-los-ecosistemas-278731