AI is showing up in court cases – but only a human jury can grapple with the moral weight of assessing guilt

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Sonali Chakravarti, Professor of Government, Wesleyan University

Human jurors need to wrestle with doubt – and that struggle gives trials their moral legitimacy. Pitiphothivichit/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Mercy,” a film released in January 2026, depicts a dystopian Los Angeles in the near future: a city riddled with violence, homelessness and civic disorder. California’s response is to set up the Mercy Capital Court, run entirely by an AI bot that goes by the name Judge Maddox. The judge can analyze evidence, determine whether the threshold for guilt has been met and execute the defendant – all in a matter of 90 minutes.

Actor Chris Pratt plays a police officer named Chris Raven, who stands accused of murdering his wife. If he wants to leave the Mercy Court alive, he must do everything he can to lower his “guilt score” – the AI’s assessment of whether he’s the killer – from 97.5% to 92%.

AI judges may still be in the realm of science fiction, but AI tools are entering the courtroom. Risk-assessment tools now help judges make decisions about bail, and lawyers and judges have used AI to research legal precedent. Some judges are even experimenting with it to formulate rulings, and simulations have used AI tools to stand in for human jurors.

“Mercy” does not appear to take itself too seriously as a commentary on the legal system. But the idea that an AI bot can determine a verdict by assessing evidence distorts the meaning of legal judgment.

As a scholar who studies juries, I believe AI obscures the importance of what human decision-makers bring to the task, and why they are essential for the legitimacy of the legal system. Since the Middle Ages, jurors have had to grapple with the weight of determining guilt – including having serious reservations about the quality of the evidence, the legitimacy of punishment and the impossibility of complete knowledge about the case.

Features, not bugs

Weighing the evidence in a criminal case cannot easily be measured on a scoreboard. Interpreting what it means is often difficult – not just intellectually but emotionally. The gravity of possibly inflicting pain on an innocent person is an essential part of judgment.

Jurors are linked in a web of relationships to the defendant, the victim and others affected by the crime. They can’t help but consider the consequences of the crime and of the verdict, and they imagine what it would feel like to be in the defendant’s shoes. How could a juror not feel doubt about their decision with all these factors weighing on them?

A photograph of an ornate, high-ceilinged room with heavy wooden chairs and a large mural on one wall.
The judge’s bench and jury box in a courtroom at the Howard M. Metzenbaum U.S. Courthouse in Cleveland.
Carol M. Highsmith Archive, Library of Congress via Wikimedia Commons

AI systems are trained to maximize predictive certainty: That is, they offer suggestions based on previous patterns or on the training they have received. They cannot weigh different outcomes in light of prior experiences or collective ideals. Getting information from AI can feel like a salve for the thorny work of complex moral and legal decision-making, but it is the wrong kind of answer for the question of whether someone should be punished by the state.

Philosopher Brian Cantwell Smith argued that while AI can make powerful, calculative decisions, judgment requires something else: human deliberation about how to apply ethical ideals under particular conditions, and grappling with others’ views about what is at stake. It is neither purely rational nor purely emotional. In order to take responsibility for its own decision, a jury needs judgment, not mere calculation inspired by what a machine considers the optimal outcome.

Wrestling with doubt

AI systems will likely continue to improve their performance on benchmarked tasks relevant to law and jurisprudence – aiding with research, identifying patterns in large troves of evidence, expediting administrative tasks – but they cannot perform the task of jurors themselves. This is especially true as relates to doubt: Whereas the AI tool considers the quantity of uncertainty, jurors must be attuned to the quality of their uncertainty. They must weigh whether it signals the need for more discussion or whether the evidence is not sufficient.

Jurors are told to determine whether the prosecution has proved its case “beyond a reasonable doubt.” That is meant to set a very high bar for the evidence and for jurors’ confidence about its meaning. Yet grappling with what the reasonable doubt standard means is one of the most intellectually challenging aspects of being a juror. Judges tend to give a minimal description to jurors – saying that jurors should be firmly convinced before convicting someone, for example. Each group of jurors must discuss how to interpret the standard and whether the threshold for evidence has been met.

Legal scholar James Q. Whitman’s research on the history of reasonable doubt traces its origins back to the Middle Ages. Christian jurors were afraid to take on the tasks of judgment and punishment, which they believed were properly held by God.

Eventually, by the 1700s, courts codified the phrase “guilt beyond a reasonable doubt” to acknowledge human hesitation over jurors’ role in punishment. Jurors are not asked to be omnipotent. Confidence in a conviction can coexist with appropriate ambivalence about the process and their own fallibility.

In order to convict, a jury must be unanimous – a requirement that Whitman suggested can provide “moral comfort” to mortals issuing a guilty verdict. Unanimity raises the bar for evidence and also allows “the twelve to share the heavy moral responsibility for judgment, and therefore to diffuse it among themselves.”

It is a distinct moral landscape: neither divine judgment nor algorithmic reckoning. A room of people deliberating may seem less efficient than AI, but it is a necessary component of the justice system’s moral legitimacy. Wrestling with doubt about the evidence, the verdict and its impact on the world is a way for jurors to remember their responsibility; it is not a step to be erased en route to the verdict. A jury decision symbolizes willingness to bear accountability for imposing a punishment.

A sketch shows a crowded room with two rows of seated men, some Black and some white, as a white man points at them and speaks.
A guilty verdict needs all jurors on board – which raises the bar for evidence.
MPI/Getty Images

Uniquely human

AI cannot replace human judges and jurors, but perhaps it can help them see their task more clearly.

In the 1800s, Karl Marx used the term “species-being” to refer to conscious, purposeful activities that only humans can do, especially creative activities. Today, in light of AI’s pervasiveness, there is value in considering where we want to experience a sense of species-being.

By cordoning off certain parts of our lives from AI, we can practice the feeling of unease that can come from not having an easy tool to tell us what we should do – whether in a jury room or anywhere else. Decisions that cause unease are often ones that make us choose between different values, and we must be prepared to live with the consequences.

Fantasizing that AI tools will deliver us from the messy, tedious and emotionally wrenching work of criminal legal decisions is understandable. But collective governance is something only humans can achieve – acutely aware of our capacities for both good and evil.

The Conversation

Sonali Chakravarti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. AI is showing up in court cases – but only a human jury can grapple with the moral weight of assessing guilt – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-showing-up-in-court-cases-but-only-a-human-jury-can-grapple-with-the-moral-weight-of-assessing-guilt-281833

Hantavirus, COVID, norovirus, legionnaires’: why are cruise ships so prone to disease outbreaks?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vikram Niranjan, Assistant Professor in Public Health, School of Medicine, Health Research Institute, University of Limerick

lara-sh/Shutterstock.com

Cruises are sold as floating holidays, but they are also useful for understanding public health. Cruise ships are carefully designed places where many people live, eat, relax and move through the same shared spaces for days at a time. They show how easily illness can spread when people are packed into a single interconnected environment.

Think of a cruise ship as a temporary city at sea. It has restaurants, theatres, lifts, cabins, kitchens, water systems and indoor gathering spaces. That is great for convenience, but it also means that once an infection gets on board, it can move through the ship in ways that are hard to stop.

The Diamond Princess outbreak is perhaps the best-known example. During the 2020 COVID outbreak, 619 passengers and crew tested positive for the disease. Researchers found that the ship conditions made the novel coronavirus spread more easily. Their modelling suggested that public health measures, such as isolation and quarantine, prevented many more cases, but it also showed that an earlier response would have further limited the outbreak.

Norovirus (the so-called vomiting bug) is the infection most closely linked to cruise ships. In a review of previously published studies, researchers found 127 reports of norovirus outbreaks on cruise ships, with many linked to contaminated food, contaminated surfaces and person-to-person spread. A more recent report from the US also showed that norovirus can spread very rapidly from person to person on a cruise ship.

This helps explain why ships such as Celebrity Mercury, Explorer of the Seas and Carnival Triumph have become familiar names in outbreak reports. These were not unusual in some special way; they were simply settings where shared dining, close contact and frequent movement through common areas allowed infection to spread fast.

Food service plays a big part in this risk. Buffet-style dining, shared utensils and many people touching the same surfaces can make it easier for stomach bugs to spread. If someone is infected but does not yet feel sick, they may still contaminate food or surfaces before they realise they are unwell.

A buffet on a cruise ship.
Buffet dining can help stomach bugs spread.
Hapsari Ayu/Shutterstock.com

The ship’s design adds to the problem. People spend time together in dining rooms, bars, lifts, corridors, theatres and spa areas. Crew members also live and work in the same environment, often in shared accommodation, so illness can move through the ship from passenger to passenger or between passengers and crew.

Ventilation also plays a crucial role. Cruise ships are not closed boxes, but they do rely heavily on indoor spaces where people spend long periods together. Studies into cruise ship air quality have shown that illness can spread more easily in crowded, enclosed spaces, like cabins, restaurants and entertainment venues, if the ventilation system is not up to scratch. Things like adequate fresh air circulation, specialist filters and air-purifying technology all play a role in keeping passengers safe.

Legionnaires’ disease (a serious lung disease caused by bacteria) shows a different kind of risk. It is not usually spread directly from one person to another. Instead, people can get infected by breathing in tiny droplets from contaminated water systems, hot tubs or showers.

A well-known outbreak among cruise passengers was linked to a whirlpool spa, and recent reports from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have described other cruise-associated legionnaires’ disease outbreaks linked to ship water systems.

Age also matters. Cruise holidays are especially popular with older adults, and many passengers have long-term health conditions that make infections more serious. A stomach bug on a cruise can lead to dehydration, and a respiratory infection can lead to pneumonia or hospital care.

Cruise ships do have medical facilities, but they are limited compared with land-based hospitals. They are built to give first aid, basic treatment and short-term care, not to manage a fast-moving outbreak on a large scale. That is why cruise health depends so much on early reporting, quick isolation and strong cleaning practices.

Other infections such as respiratory viruses, including influenza, can spread in the same crowded indoor settings, and stomach bugs can spread through food, hands and shared surfaces. COVID and flu exploit enclosed air and crowds. Norovirus loves buffets and surfaces. Legionnaires’ targets water systems, which ships can’t easily sterilise. Hantavirus (a severe respiratory illness spread by rodents) outbreaks on ships are rare. However, as recent news of the deaths on the MV Hondius attests, germs in close quarters find it much easier to spread.

How to limit your risk

As an epidemiologist, I have seen many outbreaks in hospitals, schools and even flights. For travellers, the best protection starts before boarding. It is sensible to check whether the cruise line has clear illness reporting, cleaning and isolation policies. Make sure your routine vaccines are up to date. And for older adults, pregnant women and anyone with health problems, consult your GP before travelling. Also, ensure your travel insurance covers illness-related disruptions.

Once on board, washing your hands with soap and water is the most useful step for preventing stomach bugs like norovirus. Hand sanitiser can help, but it does not replace soap and water. If you start to feel unwell, the safest move is to avoid buffets and crowded shared spaces and report symptoms early rather than trying to carry on as normal.

Cruise lines have improved their hygiene and outbreak response systems over time, and many voyages pass without incident. But the basic structure of cruise travel still creates the same challenge: many people sharing the same meals, the same air, the same water systems and the same common spaces. That is why outbreaks keep returning, and why cruise ships remain a useful reminder that public health is shaped as much by design as by germs.

The Conversation

Vikram Niranjan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Hantavirus, COVID, norovirus, legionnaires’: why are cruise ships so prone to disease outbreaks? – https://theconversation.com/hantavirus-covid-norovirus-legionnaires-why-are-cruise-ships-so-prone-to-disease-outbreaks-282121

The ocean system that shapes Europe’s climate

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Audrey Morley, Lecturer in Physical Geography, University of Galway

Nigma Photography/Shutterstock

For generations, the mild and temperate climate of north-western Europe has been credited to one legendary force: the Gulf Stream. This idea is so deeply entrenched in our cultural identity that in James Joyce’s Ulysses, the protagonist Stephen Dedalus refuses to take a bath, arguing that “all Ireland is washed by the Gulf Stream”.

However, the Gulf Stream is just one part of a much more complex system called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC.

To explain this better, scientists often use the image of a giant ocean conveyor belt, where warm waters move northwards across the surface of the Atlantic from the tropics. As these waters reach the North Atlantic, they release their heat into the atmosphere, much like a radiator. The AMOC also carries the moisture that gives us our temperate landscape. After the waters have released their heat, they become colder and denser, which makes them sink into the deep ocean. These waters then return southward, at great depths.

When scientists talk about the AMOC “slowing down” or “changing,” they are essentially describing a reduction in the strength of our natural radiator. Specifically, they measure how much water is moving north and south at different depths across the Atlantic. This allows them to estimate how much heat is being carried from the tropics toward the North Atlantic and back again at depth.

More than a conveyor belt

Although this “conveyor belt” analogy is a helpful starting point, modern research suggests it is incomplete and potentially misleading. For example, the system is incredibly sensitive to how seawater changes its weight and density as it interacts with the atmosphere, freshwater, ice and incoming solar radiation. Because of these additional processes, the AMOC behaves less like a single, steady loop and more like a network of interconnected regional components.

Different parts of the system can change independently, sometimes with only regional effects and sometimes with consequences for the entire system.

The Subpolar Gyre (SPG), a system of wind-driven ocean currents occupying the region from the Labrador Sea to the west of Ireland, is a powerful example of why the network perspective matters. This regional AMOC component can show a significant degree of independence from the global AMOC. It is controlled by local winds and pulses of freshwater, linked to changes in sea-ice.

Crucially for those of us in Ireland and the UK, a sudden weakening of the SPG could trigger abnormally cold winter weather, similar to conditions seen during the “little ice age”. This period of intense regional cooling, which lasted roughly from the early 14th century to the mid-19th century, was characterised by winters so severe that the River Thames froze over.

Scientific research suggests that this cold period was likely sustained and amplified by a regional change in the SPG while the AMOC remained relatively stable. This means we could face local climate shifts, including increased storminess and colder winters, because of a “flicker” in our regional component of the AMOC network, long before the entire global circulation reaches a tipping point.

This is why scientists are now focused on identifying early warning signs of instability within the AMOC.

People walking in London with umbrella
The UK’s climate is mild and wet – but it may not stay that way.
William Barton/Shutterstock

Are there signs that the AMOC has already begun to change? While climate models agree that it is likely that the AMOC will destabilise this century due to global warming, direct scientific observations of the AMOC are still too short to give us a definitive answer.

Networks of monitoring tools like Rapid or OSNAP that measure the transport of water both at depth and at the surface have only been in place for about 20 years. In the life of a massive ocean system, this is just a heartbeat. Scientists estimate we may need 30 to 40+ years of continuous observations to clearly detect a long-term AMOC decline against the ocean’s natural variability.

Why does it matter?

For generations, societies, economies and infrastructures in north-western Europe have been built around a stable, mild and wet climate. If this natural radiator fails or even significantly weakens the consequences will ripple across Ireland, the UK and the European continent.

We should care about this because the AMOC currently moves a massive amount of heat
from the tropics to the North Atlantic, where it is released into the atmosphere. A weakening of this system means that a portion of this tropical warmth is no longer delivered to our region as effectively, leading to cooling across northwestern Europe.

While Hollywood depicted a sudden ice age in the film The Day After Tomorrow (2004), the scientific reality of a slowdown is no less concerning. We could face significantly colder winters resulting in more frequent harsh freezes, snow and severe frosts. During the little ice age a weaker SPG led to agricultural failures and famines. We could also experience an increase in storminess shifting rainfall patterns, and drier summers, all of which could damage critical infrastructures like roads and crop harvests.

The AMOC is also essential for keeping carbon and heat stored in the deep ocean, effectively locking it away from the atmosphere. At the moment the world’s oceans absorb approximately 25-30% of all human-made carbon dioxide emissions each year.

However, should the AMOC slow down it is expected that the rate at which carbon is stored in the deep ocean also slows down. The AMOC also redistributes the nutrients that sustain marine ecosystems. A disruption here wouldn’t just change our weather; it would weaken the ocean’s ability to act as a carbon sink, potentially accelerating global warming in a dangerous feedback loop.

Keeping an eye on the AMOC is a matter of national and regional security.

Whether the decline is gradual or approaches a tipping point, the impact on our way of life will be profound. By listening to the signals coming from the deep ocean today, we can better prepare for the climate of tomorrow.

The Conversation

Audrey Morley receives funding from Research Ireland, The Marine Institute, The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Ireland) and the Geological Survey of Ireland

ref. The ocean system that shapes Europe’s climate – https://theconversation.com/the-ocean-system-that-shapes-europes-climate-281056

TikTok’s ‘nonnamaxxing’ trend explained: here’s how living like an Italian grandma can benefit health and wellbeing

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Trudy Meehan, Lecturer, Centre for Positive Psychology and Health, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences

Here are some good reasons to try ‘nonnamaxxing’ for life. Inna Postnikova/ Shutterstock

The key to better wellbeing is acting like an Italian grandmother, according to social media’s “nonnamaxxing” trend.

Proponents of the trend say that adopting the lifestyle habits of an Italian nonna will help improve your health and mental wellbeing. The core principles of the trend are simple: make time for your friends and loved ones, eat foods grown from your own garden and cook hearty meals at home.

This latest trend borrows from lifestyle medicine research which shows the same practices being advocated by nonnamaxxing enthusiasts can not only add years to your life, but add life to your years.


No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.


So instead of jumping on the nonnamaxxing bandwagon until the next trend rolls around, here are some examples of how you can adopt these habits for life.

Positive social connections

A core tenet of “nonnamaxxing” is making time for friends and loved ones.

Research shows maintaining positive social connections is one of the most helpful factors in supporting health across your lifespan. Social experiences help us regulate emotionally. Not only does this impact our happiness and wellbeing, it also has a whole host of other physiological benefits.

For instance, laughing with our loved ones or holding their hand reduces pain and dampens the stress response. Research also shows social connection can reduce inflammation and improve immune responses.

This doesn’t mean you need to rush out and get married – it’s not just about romantic relationships. Relationships come in many forms. Even micro-moments of positive social interaction – such as having a brief chat with a barista – have measurable health and wellbeing benefits. Research has also found that people who volunteer have a lower risk of catching the common cold.

Collective experiences such as concerts, rituals, dancing, singing or cheering together can also generate “collective effervescence” – a feeling of unity, aliveness and belonging.

When we interact in person, our brains and bodies synchronise with that person in a way that feels good, supports connection and supports health. We feel a greater sense of purpose, belonging and self-worth.

Try gardening

Physical activity and moving every day are among key factors that have been linked with longevity.

But this doesn’t mean you need to hit the gym or go running to see benefits. Even gardening, an activity we might typically associated with an Italian nonna’s lifestyle, has been associated with health benefits.

Gardening is a physically stimulating activity that translates into increased mobility and reduced sedentary behaviour. Reviews also show it’s good for mental health and quality of life.

Due to its multimodal nature, gardening stimulates the brain. We need to plan, coordinate, remember to remember and monitor changes in our garden over time. This type of stimulation supports the development of cognitive reserve – additional healthy brain tissue that helps offset the functional impairments of diseased brain matter as we age. This may explain why activities such as gardening are associated with lower likelihood of being diagnosed with dementia.

Home-cooked meals

Another core tenet of nonnamaxxing is cooking meals at home.

The more frequently you cook at home, the better. Those who cook their own meals tend to have a higher intake of fruit, vegetables and fiber. Cooking at home also means you tend to consume fewer calories, fats and added sugar, which may help regulate blood sugar, reduce body fat and prevent type 2 diabetes.

A grandma prepares a dough for bread with her young grandson.
Cooking at home can give us meaning.
Halfpoint/ Shutterstock

In the field of positive psychology, cooking is described as an activity that captures key parts of what makes us happy – such as positive emotions and a sense of meaning and accomplishment.

How to get started

If you’re keen to give nonnamaxxing a try, here are a few easy ways to be more like an Italian nonna in your everyday life.

We all know by now that socialising and meeting friends and family is good for us, but if you can’t get together in person make use of technology.

Although technology isn’t quite as good as real-life interactions, try making these interactions intentional when they do happen. Being emotionally responsive, engaged and letting your loved one know you’re there – even while texting – can increase connection and warmth.

And when contacting friends or family, try to call – or at least send a voice message. Social interactions using our voices create stronger social connection compared to text-based interactions.

To give gardening a try, start with something small that grows easily. Even if it’s just a small tomato or strawberry plant you can put on your windowsill. This will give you a sense of purpose, and you’ll be able to enjoy the fruits of your labour, too, which is good for your health.

If you don’t want the responsibility of a garden, getting outside and being in nature – especially in parks or near rivers – will boost both physical activity levels and improve health and wellbeing.

As for cooking your meals at home, don’t feel like you need to start with a complicated recipe. Start with making sandwiches or even snacks and build up to cooking a dinner. Remember, cooking is a skill; you can learn by following a recipe or cooking video.

If you don’t have the time to cook, try eating with someone. Eating together boosts social connection and provides a sense of safety and belonging. If you don’t have anyone to eat with, try picking a food or meal that reminds you of a loved one. This food nostalgia can reproduce feelings of warmth and connection.

While the nonnamaxxing trend may be forgotten in a week, it describes a way of living that’s generations old. Living like an Italian grandma hasn’t just passed the test of time, it’s been tested by health and wellbeing researchers too.

The Conversation

Trudy Meehan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. TikTok’s ‘nonnamaxxing’ trend explained: here’s how living like an Italian grandma can benefit health and wellbeing – https://theconversation.com/tiktoks-nonnamaxxing-trend-explained-heres-how-living-like-an-italian-grandma-can-benefit-health-and-wellbeing-281073

Where Iranians are going under fire – a real-time picture of displacement

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francisco Rowe, Professor of Population Data Science, University of Liverpool

Since US and Israeli strikes began on the last day of February, millions of Iranians have been living under attack, an internet blackout and tight restrictions on journalists and humanitarian agencies.

But many people are on the move, trying to get away from dangerous places or to be reunited with family at a time of conflict. In an information blackout, with internet access almost completely shut down across Iran, it’s hard to build a detailed picture of this population movement. But in the absence of conventional data on internal population displacement, we have been piecing together where people are moving by looking at faint but persistent signals of internet activity.

Our latest analysis and situation report covering the war since its outbreak, shows a clear geographic pattern and timeline of movement.

This is one of the first near real-time pictures of displacement within Iran. It complements cross-border figures from the UN’s International Organization for Migration, which recorded roughly 40,000 departures from Iran between March 3 and 10, mainly to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Our data offers a partial view of movement inside the country, where conventional methods of counting displaced people have largely broken down.

What the data show

In the first days of the war, our estimates indicate relative increases in population presence in provinces near the borders with Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan. As the conflict evolved, the pattern shifted eastward and towards the capital. By the third week, provinces bordering Afghanistan and Tehran showed the strongest signs of population concentration.

Tehran stands out. Despite being repeatedly struck by Israeli and US missiles, the Iranian capital shows what appears to be a modest rise in population compared with its pre-war baseline. That is consistent with research on other conflicts, where capital cities often absorb displaced people. This is because, even under bombardment, they usually offer better access to services and infrastructure.

Central and southwestern provinces, such as Qom, Isfahan, Fars and Zanjan/Qazvin – several of which host nuclear, military and defence production sites – show signs of sustained declines in estimated presence. These are also the areas with the highest concentration of recorded strikes on the Iran Strike Map, an open-source intelligence website which plots strikes on and by Iran in this conflict based on verified reports. The alignment between strikes and population declines is one of the strongest validation points in our analysis.

How we know

Weeks of active hostilities and Iran’s tight information controls have closed off most of the usual population statistics we might rely on to track population movements. Instead, we use what researchers call digital trace data – the everyday digital footprints people leave when they use connected devices.

GPS-based mobile data and Meta’s population maps have been useful in other crises, but for Iran, they are unavailable. So our main source is Cloudflare Radar, a US-based content delivery network which publishes aggregated, anonymised counts of encrypted web requests passing through its network, broken down by province.

Despite the widespread internet shutdowns, some weak internet signal remains and we were able use it, translate it to population numbers and compare these numbers with a baseline control set in December 2025 to assess increases and decreases in population. More requests than usual is a tentative signal that more people are present and online. Fewer requests may suggest fewer people or less activity.

We built a baseline model for December 2025 translating provincial internet traffic to population numbers, using WorldPop population estimates. We then applied that baseline to each day of the war, adjusting for network shocks and coverage, and cross-checked the patterns against Farsi Wikipedia pageviews for border regions and against recorded strike locations. Obviously at a time of internet restriction pageviews tend to be very few, so this information serves as validation only for our other evidence. A full account of the methods we used, with interactive maps, are on the project website.

Why it matters

The UN’s International Organization for Migration has already reported rapidly evolving displacement across more than 20 Iranian provinces. But with the internet cut, journalists barred and little official information available, even a rough picture of internal movement matters. Our findings point humanitarian agencies to three pressure points: the northwestern border corridor, the provinces adjoining Afghanistan and Tehran’s hinterland.

These patterns also matter politically. US and Israeli officials have framed the campaign as a targeted operation against Iran’s nuclear, missile and leadership infrastructure. Our data indicate whether strikes hit their intended targets. But they do show that the civilian response extends well beyond the struck sites. Estimated population is falling across several provinces and rising in others, including areas without major military infrastructure. However precise the targeting, the human footprint of this war is broad and spatially uneven.

What the data cannot show

These are proxy estimates, not head counts – they capture relative population change, not absolute numbers. There are three main caveats to consider.

First, Iran’s near-total internet blackout has kept national connectivity at 1–4% of normal levels for much of this period. A drop in requests from a province could reflect people leaving. It could also mean a cut cable or a shutdown order. We adjust for these effects, but uncertainty remains high.

Second, the data only capture people with internet-connected devices. Although we adjusted our estimates to mitigate biases, children, the elderly and poorer households may be underrepresented. Ethnic minorities who read primarily in Azerbaijani Turkish or Kurdish are less visible in our Farsi Wikipedia cross-check, which covers roughly half the population.

Third, we analyse movements that correlate with or follow attacks, not movements caused by them. People also flee ahead of strikes, return between them or move for reasons unrelated to the war. The alignment with strike data strengthens the case, but it does not prove it.

In past crises, from Ukraine to Sudan, researchers and humanitarian agencies have increasingly turned to digital trace data when the usual sources are unavailable. Iran is a hard case. Since the war began, the state has imposed a near-total internet blackout, keeping connectivity for officials and state media but cutting off most of the population, using control of the network as an instrument of wartime information control.

Even so, the digital traces still carry information about where life goes on, and where it has stopped. Used carefully – and with clear caveats – they can help the outside world maintain some visibility of a population that is otherwise hard to see.

The Conversation

Francisco Rowe receives funding from the Economic Social Research Council for supporting DEBIAS (ES/Y010787/1).

Carmen Cabrera receives funding from UK’s Economic and Social Research Council.

Elisabetta Pietrostefani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Where Iranians are going under fire – a real-time picture of displacement – https://theconversation.com/where-iranians-are-going-under-fire-a-real-time-picture-of-displacement-281353

Welsh broadcasters target voters with digital election coverage

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Keighley Perkins, Research Associate School of Journalism, Media and Culture, Cardiff University; Swansea University

Mareks Perkons/Shutterstock

Voters in Wales will soon go to the polls to elect members of an expanded Senedd (Welsh parliament) under a new proportional voting system. As the campaign has developed, public service broadcasters have sought not only to report events but to educate, inform and engage audiences with an unfamiliar electoral process.

Our analysis suggests they are increasingly doing so through digital platforms. We analysed all election news content produced online and on social media by major broadcasters between April 8 and April 24, including BBC Wales, ITV Wales, S4C, Channel 4 and Sky News.

The findings point to a move towards formats designed for audiences who are more likely to encounter news online than through traditional television.

This matters because people increasingly come across political content passively, through algorithmically curated feeds rather than actively seeking it out. In that environment, the type of content produced – and how it’s presented – can play a decisive role in shaping public understanding of the election.

One prominent feature of digital coverage has been the use of explainers. These aim to demystify the election by breaking down how the Senedd works, how the voting system has changed and which policy areas are devolved to Wales or reserved to Westminster.

Many of these explainers adopt a more informal and accessible tone than their broadcast equivalents. They’re designed to cut through in fast-moving social media feeds where political information competes for attention.

A significant proportion focus on policy. Of the 19 explainers identified in our analysis, seven centred on specific issues, most commonly immigration. This reflects persistent public confusion about where responsibility lies.




Read more:
Voters in Wales face Senedd election amid confusion over who holds power over what


Our recent survey found that nearly a third of people in Wales did not know immigration is controlled by the UK government. Against that backdrop, broadcasters have often made this distinction explicit. In 82% of online and social media items mentioning immigration, journalists clearly stated that responsibility lies with Westminster.

Broadcasters have also used explainers to clarify changes to the electoral system. This includes the move to a closed-list proportional system. Public awareness of this change remains low, however. Only 7% of respondents in our survey correctly identified the system, while 58% said they did not know.

Meet the leaders

Alongside explainers, broadcasters have used digital formats to introduce audiences to the leaders of Wales’s six main political parties. This has reinforced the campaign’s increasingly presidential tone, with party leaders dominating media appearances.

In a devolved context, this is not always straightforward, given the presence of both UK-wide and Welsh political figures. But digital formats have provided new ways to foreground Welsh leaders.

Short, one-to-one interviews have become an important feature. Formats such as the BBC’s Quickfire Questions and ITV’s Chippy Chats mix light-touch prompts – like “What song have you got on repeat?” – with more substantive questions about policy priorities.

These formats inject personality into political coverage. Leaders are presented not only as decision-makers but as people with interests and personalities. This is particularly significant given relatively low public awareness of Welsh political figures.

Our recent survey found that fewer than half of respondents could identify the leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth, despite the fact he could become the next first minister.

At the same time, the informal tone has not entirely displaced scrutiny. In ITV’s Chippy Chats for example, the Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds was challenged on her voting record in the Senedd. It’s a reminder that accountability can still be built into more conversational formats.

Informing voters in a digital campaign

Taken together, these approaches suggest broadcasters are using digital platforms in distinct and complementary ways. Explainers aim to address gaps in public knowledge. One-to-one interviews make political leaders more visible and relatable.

This reflects a broader transformation in how election coverage is produced and consumed. As more people encounter political information online, public service broadcasters play an increasingly important role in countering misinformation and improving understanding of politics and public affairs.

The challenge is now to strike the right balance. Broadcasters must produce content that engages audiences. But they shouldn’t lose sight of the need to inform them and to scrutinise the claims made by political parties.

The Conversation

Keighley Perkins receives funding from AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.

Maxwell Modell receives funding from the AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.

Stephen Cushion has received funding from the BBC Trust, Ofcom, AHRC, BA, ESRC and Welsh Government.

ref. Welsh broadcasters target voters with digital election coverage – https://theconversation.com/welsh-broadcasters-target-voters-with-digital-election-coverage-281821

Thinking of joining a co-working space? Here are four ways to make the most of it

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Zihan Wang, Research Fellow in Geography and Innovation, University of Sussex

bbernard/Shutterstock

Co-working spaces have become a familiar part of the working landscape. A convenient alternative to working from home or an employer’s office, they have become the favoured option of millions of the world’s freelancers, entrepreneurs and remote workers.

In the UK, there are over 4,000 co-working venues to choose from. Prices vary, depending on location and facilities, but with a dedicated desk costing around £200 per month, it’s worth knowing how to make the most of what these spaces offer.

So how do you choose the right co-working space for you? And how do you get the maximum benefit? Here are four practical tips to consider:

1. Identify your needs

Not all co-working spaces serve the same purpose. Some people are simply looking for a quiet desk outside the home, while others want a social environment where they can meet people, exchange ideas and build connections.

Being clear about what you want, whether it’s productivity, networking opportunities or skill development, is the first step.

Smaller, independently run spaces often place greater emphasis on community building, with managers who organise regular informal events such as “lunch and learn” sessions or workshops. These environments can create more opportunities for social interaction and learning.

By contrast, larger corporate-style spaces may offer more polished facilities and business services, but with fewer opportunities for facilitated interaction. Choosing the right co-working environment means considering the type of space and how you plan to use it.

2. Give it a try

Co-working spaces are often advertised as being open and inclusive. But research I worked on with colleagues shows that experiences can vary depending on factors such as age, gender or professional background.

Some spaces will probably feel more welcoming than others, particularly ones where equality, diversity and inclusion are a deliberate part of their design and ethos.

Many spaces are now also set up with specific groups in mind. For example, some cater to female entrepreneurs, while others offer tailored support for neurodivergent workers.

Before committing, it’s worth visiting a space, attending an event, or trying a short term pass (for a couple of days or a week) to see whether it feels like a good fit.

3. It’s more than a desk

It’s easy to treat co-working spaces as simply a place to work. But research suggests much of its value lies in the connections, community and everyday interactions it makes possible.

Casual conversations in the kitchen or spontaneous exchanges over lunch can help build communication skills, expand professional networks, and spark new collaborations. Evidence suggests that these benefits tend to be particularly strong for those who are newer to a city, earlier in their careers, or working independently. They may have have less established local networks or fewer everyday opportunities for office-based interaction, making them more likely to seek out social connections within co-working spaces.

If you only show up, put your headphones while you work and then leave, you may miss out on some of the main advantages of co-working – the opportunity to connect with others and become part of a community. Making the most of these spaces often means being willing to take that first step, engage with others and gradually find your own circle.

4. Take advantage

If your work involves specialised tools, digital technology or continuous skill development, you may need more than just wifi and coffee from a co-working space.

Many now offer access to specialist software and cutting edge equipment such as 3D printers or virtual reality devices, which can be costly or difficult to access by yourself.

Some go a step further and organise workshops and training sessions, or even events that reflect the latest developments in a particular field. These resources can be particularly valuable for independent workers including freelancers and the self-employed, who may not have access to structured on-the-job training through an employer.

Silhouetted meeting rooms on three floors.
Networking opportunities.
Golden Dayz/Shutterstock

Using them can help you build practical, up-to-date technical and digital skills, especially as new technologies and AI continue to reshape the skills demanded in many industries. So don’t overlook what’s on offer, whether it’s a workshop, a new tool, or a piece of equipment. Making use of these opportunities can help you stay adaptable, keep learning and be better prepared for what comes next.

Overall then, co-working spaces can offer valuable opportunities to learn new skills, build networks and adapt to changing ways of working. But these benefits are not automatic and they are not the same for everyone.

Getting the most out of co-working often depends on how you use the space and whether it matches your needs. At its best, co-working is not just about renting a desk, but about finding an environment where you can connect, learn and grow.

The Conversation

Zihan Wang receives funding from Made Smarter Innovation: Centre for People-Led Digitalisation, at the University of Bath, University of Nottingham and Loughborough University. The project was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) (grant number EP/V062042/1).

ref. Thinking of joining a co-working space? Here are four ways to make the most of it – https://theconversation.com/thinking-of-joining-a-co-working-space-here-are-four-ways-to-make-the-most-of-it-281286

Shutting Iran’s oil wells may be straightforward – but the consequences are not

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nima Shokri, Executive Co-Director, Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), United Nations University; Technical University of Hamburg

The Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway through which between 20% and 25% of the world’s seaborne oil normally passes – has been effectively closed for just over two months.

As tensions have escalated, Iran has restricted passage through the Strait, while the US has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian shipping, sharply limiting Tehran’s ability to export crude. On May 3, the US president Donald Trump announced Project Freedom, by which US warships would escort vessels from countries not involved in the conflict through the Strait. But some reports have suggested that Iran has since fired on several ships attempting to transit and the waterway remains effectively closed.

The immediate consequences are tankers stranded, prices surging, and Iran rapidly running out of places to store its oil. Analysts now warn that storage could fill within weeks, forcing producers to shut wells altogether.

But the deeper story lies far below the surface. Oil wells are not designed to be switched off and on at will. And when they are, the damage can linger long after the crisis has passed.

To understand why, it helps to ditch the idea of oil fields as underground lakes. In reality, oil sits trapped inside microscopic pores in rock, typically a hundredth of a millimeter wide, held there by pressure, temperature, and a delicate balance between oil, gas and water.

Shutting them down, especially abruptly and for long periods, can alter their internal balance in ways that are difficult, sometimes impossible, to reverse. Production works because the system is in motion. When a well is open, pressure differences drive oil toward the wellbore (a drilled channel connecting the oil reservoir to the surface). Over time, that pressure naturally declines, which is why operators use techniques such as water or gas injection to maintain flow.

The key point is that reservoirs are dynamic. They depend on continuous management to remain productive.

Shut the well and the movement of the oil stops. The consequences begin almost immediately. One of the first changes occurs in pressure distribution. While shutting down a well can temporarily allow pressure to build back up near the wellbore, the broader reservoir may experience uneven redistribution.

The US blockade of Iran means Iran’s storage is almost full.

In fields that rely on carefully managed injection, where water or gas is pumped in to push oil out, halting operations disrupts that system. The injected fluids can migrate unpredictably, sometimes bypassing oil-rich zones entirely when production resumes. The fluid can chose a different path for movement so it may no longer push the oil out of the reservoir.

Then there is the chemistry. Crude oil is not a uniform substance; it contains heavier components such as waxes and asphaltenes — long-chain hydrocarbons and dense, complex molecules that can solidify or precipitate out under changing conditions. Under stable flow conditions, these remain dissolved. But when flow stops and temperatures or pressures change, these components can essentially clog the tiny pores in the rock or the well itself. Once deposited, these materials can restrict flow unless expensive – and not always successful – techniques are used to repair the damage.

Water adds another layer of complexity. All reservoirs contain formation water (the naturally occurring water trapped in the rock alongside oil and gas), and in some cases injected seawater. When a well is shut in, water can intrude into zones that previously produced mostly oil. Over time, this “water invasion” can become entrenched, meaning that when production resumes, the well produces far more water and far less oil. Separating and disposing of that water is costly, and in some cases the oil production becomes uneconomic.

Author created illustration of how oil wells work

Author produced using AI tools., CC BY

There are also mechanical risks. The well itself is lined with steel casing and cement, and is designed to operate under certain conditions. Long shutdowns can lead to corrosion, scaling (mineral build-up), or even structural integrity issues. In extreme cases, restarting a well can require significant reworking, akin to reopening a mine that has partially collapsed.

Perhaps the most misunderstood aspect is what happens at the scale of the whole oil reservoir over longer periods. Some reservoirs are highly sensitive to pressure changes. If pressure drops too low or fluctuates unpredictably, the rock structure can compact. This compaction reduces the pores available to store and transmit fluids, permanently lowering the field’s production potential.

Gas behaviour also matters. In many reservoirs, gas is dissolved in oil under high pressure. When pressure falls below a certain threshold, gas comes out of solution, which forms bubbles that can block flow pathways . If this happens unevenly during a shutdown, it can leave behind pockets of oil that are effectively stranded.

All of this helps explain why operators are cautious about shutting in production unless they have to. It is not just a matter of lost revenue during downtime – it’s the risk of losing future production capacity altogether. That said, not all wells suffer equally. Some reservoirs are more resilient.

In many cases, particularly in large conventional fields, production can be restored relatively quickly after a shutdown, as seen in past disruptions. But this doesn’t mean the reservoir is unaffected – even when output returns, subtle changes can reduce efficiency, increase costs, or leave some oil permanently unrecovered. In practice, this can mean a reduction in how much oil is ultimately recoverable. Some pockets may become harder to access or uneconomic to produce under normal conditions, even if they remain physically in place. That does not imply the oil is lost forever, but it can shift part of it beyond reach with current technology or prices, effectively lowering the field’s long-term yield.

There are environmental risks too. Closure of wells may cut emissions in the short term, but pressure instability can increase methane leakage. Restarting wells often involves flaring and venting, adding further emissions. Over time, water intrusion and reservoir damage can raise the environmental cost per barrel, as more energy is needed to extract less oil.

Modern engineering can mitigate some risks through careful planning maintaining minimal circulation, managing pressure, or using chemical treatments. But these measures require time, coordination, and resources, which may not be available in a sudden geopolitical crisis.

The broader lesson is that oil production is not easily paused and resumed like a factory assembly line. It is a continuous interaction with a complex natural system. Interruptions especially abrupt, large-scale ones can leave lasting scars beneath the surface, long after the valves are reopened.

The Conversation

Nima Shokri is affiliated with Hamburg University of Technology.

Martin J. Blunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Shutting Iran’s oil wells may be straightforward – but the consequences are not – https://theconversation.com/shutting-irans-oil-wells-may-be-straightforward-but-the-consequences-are-not-281999

Pas besoin de s’inscrire à une salle de sport : même les petits mouvements ont des bienfaits pour la santé

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Merling Phaswana, Senior Lecturer, University of the Witwatersrand

L’Afrique du Sud est confrontée à une augmentation alarmante des maladies non transmissibles et de la mortalité qui y est associée. Selon Statistics South Africa, les décès dus à des maladies non transmissibles telles que le diabète de type 2 et l’hypertension ont augmenté de plus de 58 % entre 1997 et 2018.

La crise du surpoids et de l’obésité dans le pays aggrave les risques liés à ces maladies. Près de 40 % de la population adulte sont en surpoids. Bien que l’activité physique puisse aider à prévenir et à prendre en charge de nombreuses maladies non transmissibles, 47 % des adultes ne pratiquent aucune activité physique. La plupart des gens ont du mal à respecter les recommandations de l’Organisation mondiale de la santé de 150 à 300 minutes d’activité physique aérobique d’intensité modérée par semaine.

Une grande partie du problème tient au fait que les gens ont adopté une approche « tout ou rien » en matière d’activité physique. L’idée reçue est qu’il faut participer à des séances d’entraînement structurées, comme la gym, la course à pied ou le vélo.

Au contraire, des recherches ont montré que même des mouvements brefs et de faible intensité peuvent apporter des bienfaits mesurables pour la santé physique et mentale. Même les tâches quotidiennes comptent. De nouvelles données montrent que de courtes séances d’activité physique de moins de cinq minutes peuvent avoir des effets positifs sur la santé.

En tant que chercheurs en sciences de l’exercice et en médecine du sport, nous avons observé que l’activité physique est particulièrement faible en Afrique du Sud. Seuls 19,8 % des adultes respectent les recommandations de l’OMS, contre une moyenne mondiale de 73 %.

Notre étude portant sur 62 employés de bureau à l’université du Witwatersrand a également montré l’impact à court terme sur la santé des bureaux assis-debout réglables en hauteur. Notre intervention a réduit la durée de la position assise et a légèrement amélioré des indicateurs tels que l’indice de masse corporelle et la tension artérielle. Compte tenu du fardeau élevé de l’obésité et des modes de vie sédentaires chez les employés de bureau en Afrique du Sud, ces améliorations sont encourageantes et viennent étayer le message de santé mondiale selon lequel même une augmentation modeste de l’activité physique quotidienne peut avoir une influence positive sur la santé.

Ces résultats ont servi de point de départ à la campagne « Mzansi, what’s your move? » (Mzansi, comment tu bouges ?) menée à l’université. Nous souhaitons encourager le personnel et les étudiants à bouger davantage en leur montrant comment de simples gestes peuvent, cumulés, constituer une activité physique. La campagne s’appuie sur une série de bandes dessinées et des fresques murales sur les campus.

Nous mettons ici en avant quelques actions que nous avons utilisées dans notre campagne pour encourager tout le monde à bouger. Il s’agit de tâches quotidiennes qui peuvent sembler banales mais qui comptent comme de l’activité physique, tout en reflétant la réalité des gens.




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Pourquoi l’obésité progresse-t-elle depuis trente ans ?


Tâches ménagères

Beaucoup de gens ne considèrent pas les tâches ménagères comme une forme d’activité physique. Mais des tâches comme balayer, passer la serpillière ou passer l’aspirateur nécessitent des mouvements soutenus et sollicitent plusieurs groupes musculaires.

Frotter les sols, laver les vitres et nettoyer les salles de bains impliquent des mouvements tels que s’accroupir et s’étirer. Le jardinage peut également renforcer les muscles.

Dans le cadre de notre campagne, nous avons créé des bandes dessinées qui mettent en avant des mouvements pouvant être effectués à la maison et au sein de la communauté. Nous soulignons comment tous les membres de la famille peuvent bouger d’une manière adaptée à leur mode de vie et à leurs capacités physiques.




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Se rendre au travail ou à l’école de manière active

Se rendre au travail ou à l’école à pied ou à vélo contribue de manière significative à l’activité physique quotidienne. Des études ont montré que se rendre au travail ou à l’école de manière active est associé à une diminution de la masse graisseuse, à une baisse de la pression artérielle et à un meilleur bien-être mental.

Intégrer l’activité physique dans ses trajets quotidiens est un moyen pratique d’accumuler de l’activité physique sans avoir à y consacrer du temps. Marcher d’un bon pas jusqu’à la gare, faire quelques kilomètres à vélo pour se rendre au travail ou emprunter un itinéraire plus long pour déposer les enfants à l’école, tout cela s’accumule au fil du temps. Même des changements apparemment mineurs, comme descendre du bus un arrêt plus tôt ou prendre les escaliers plutôt que l’ascenseur, peuvent produire des bienfaits mesurables pour la santé au fil des semaines et des mois.

Cependant, tirer pleinement parti des avantages des trajets actifs est complexe et dépend de la construction et de l’entretien des infrastructures routières par les villes. En Afrique du Sud, la sécurité est une préoccupation légitime pour tous les usagers de la route. Un rapport de Statistics South Africa de 2024 montre que davantage de piétons que de passagers de voitures sont décédés dans des accidents de la route en 2007, 2013 et 2019. Une autre préoccupation en matière de sécurité concerne les taux de criminalité élevés du pays. Les gens peuvent être réticents à marcher, même dans leur propre quartier.

Ces défis ne sont pas insurmontables. Pour commencer, il faudrait envisager de se déplacer en groupe, en rejoignant des clubs de marche ou de course à pied.

Au-delà de ce que les individus peuvent faire, les municipalités peuvent agir sur les espaces verts. Il s’agit notamment de veiller à ce que les parcs soient propres et sûrs pour les piétons. Les trottoirs et les pistes cyclables endommagés doivent être entretenus dans tous les quartiers.




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Déplacements occasionnels

Les déplacements occasionnels désignent les petites périodes d’activité qui surviennent tout au long de la journée. Intégrer ces déplacements dans la vie quotidienne peut apporter des bienfaits significatifs pour la santé, en particulier dans les environnements de bureau, où de nombreuses personnes restent assises pendant de longues périodes. Les employeurs peuvent inciter leur personnel, par exemple à utiliser les escaliers plutôt que les ascenseurs, à l’aide de simples affiches ou de traces de pas peintes. Une autre façon d’encourager l’activité physique consiste à centraliser les équipements communs (imprimantes, poubelles, fontaines à eau) afin que le personnel parcoure de courtes distances.

Les micro-pauses offrent également des occasions de mouvements informels. S’étirer pendant les réunions ou après de longues périodes en position assise, mener des discussions debout plutôt qu’assis, et organiser des réunions en marchant pour les petits groupes contribuent tous à l’activité physique des employés.

En 2024, nous avons étudié l’impact à court terme d’interventions en matière d’activité physique, telles que l’entraînement par intervalles à haute intensité et l’entraînement continu d’intensité modérée, sur 43 ouvriers de l’université du Witwatersrand. Le nombre de participants à cette étude était faible, mais les résultats montrent que notre intervention a permis de réduire des indicateurs tels que le tour de taille, l’indice de masse corporelle, la glycémie et la tension artérielle, et d’améliorer la condition physique.




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Pour améliorer votre santé, faites du sport !


Ce qu’il faut retenir

Il n’est pas nécessaire d’être abonné à une salle de sport ou de suivre un programme d’entraînement strict pour bouger. Les activités simples du quotidien constituent toutes ensemble une activité physique significative. De petits mouvements contribuent à réduire les risques de maladies chroniques, à renforcer les muscles, à améliorer le bien-être mental et à contrer les effets néfastes d’une position assise prolongée.

Ces « collations de mouvement » rendent l’exercice accessible, gérable et durable, en particulier pour les personnes qui trouvent les entraînements structurés intimidants ou chronophages.

The Conversation

Merling Phaswana receives funding from the South African National Research Fund.

Philippe Gradidge bénéficie d’un financement de la Fondation nationale sud-africaine pour la recherche, du Conseil sud-africain de la recherche médicale et de la Fondation Carnegie.

ref. Pas besoin de s’inscrire à une salle de sport : même les petits mouvements ont des bienfaits pour la santé – https://theconversation.com/pas-besoin-de-sinscrire-a-une-salle-de-sport-meme-les-petits-mouvements-ont-des-bienfaits-pour-la-sante-281585

Pourquoi tant de femmes africaines se blanchissent-elles la peau ? Une étude interroge leurs réponses

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Oyenike Balogun, Assistant Professor of Psychology, Bentley University

Dans plusieurs pays africains, la pratique de l’éclaircissement de la peau est largement répandue, touchant parfois plus de 50 % des femmes selon les estimations de l’Organisation mondiale de la Santé (OMS) dans une fiche régionale sur l’Afrique. En Afrique du Sud, ce taux est de 32 %, tandis qu’au Nigeria, il atteint 77 %. Ces chiffres dépassent de loin ceux observés dans d’autres régions du monde.

Les conséquences sur la santé ne sont pas négligeables. Les crèmes et pilules éclaircissantes en vente libre ont été associées à de graves dépigmentations de la peau, des lésions organiques, des troubles neurologiques et des complications chirurgicales dangereuses.

Pourtant, les chercheurs n’ont toujours pas cerné les raisons qui poussent les femmes à utiliser ces produits. Comprendre ces raisons est essentiel pour orienter les politiques qui doivent trouver des solutions à ce problème de santé publique.

Une explication intuitive veut que les femmes blanchissent leur peau parce qu’elles sont insatisfaites de leur couleur de peau. Cette hypothèse est paradoxalement difficile à confirmer.

La plupart des recherches sur l’image corporelle repose sur des questionnaires directs. On demande aux participantes ce qu’elles pensent de leur apparence. Mais mon travail en tant que psychologue du conseil et chercheur utilisant des méthodes mixtes suggère que cette méthode a des limites. Les réponses ne sont pas toujours sincères.

Dans les cas où préférer une peau plus claire peut être perçu comme une forme de rejet de soi, de fortes pressions sociales peuvent influencer les réponses à ces questions directes.




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Pour contourner ce problème, mes coauteurs et moi-même avons abordé la question différemment. Dans notre étude récemment publiée, nous avons cherché à savoir si le Test d’Association Implicite sur la couleur de peau ou Skin Implicit Association Test (Skin IAT), pouvait révéler des éléments que les échelles d’autodéclaration ne parviennent pas à capter. Il permet de détecter les associations automatiques des auto-évaluations qui passent à côté.

Ce test, adapté du Test d’association implicite du psychologue social Anthony Greenwald et de ses collègues, mesure la rapidité avec laquelle les participants associent des images de teints clairs et foncés à des mots positifs ou négatifs. Le principe est simple : si une personne associe automatiquement une peau claire à des mots positifs et une peau foncée à des mots négatifs, cette association se reflète dans son temps de réponse — même si elle ne l’admettrait jamais directement dans un questionnaire.

Les concepteurs de tests implicites suggèrent qu’ils contournent les biais liés à l’autoévaluation. Ils évaluent les associations automatiques et instinctives sans interroger directement les participantes sur leurs croyances, leurs attitudes ou comportement.

Les tests d’association implicite ont également été utilisés pour étudier d’autres préférences implicites liées, notamment, à la race, au poids, à la religion et à l’âge.

Nos résultats ont mis en évidence un écart frappant : près de 79 % des participantes ont montré une préférence automatique pour une peau plus claire lors du test implicite. Les enquêtes standard de notre étude n’en détectent qu’un tiers.

Ces résultats sont importants car ils soulignent le fait que les forces qui sous-tendent le blanchiment de la peau à travers le continent africain ne peuvent être réduites à un seule cause psychologique. Le phénomène est lié à une longue histoire coloniale de plusieurs siècles. Il est aussi influencé par des normes de beauté centrées sur l’Europe. Il prend racine dans des systèmes économiques qui associent le capital social à une peau claire. Il est aussi alimenté par des environnements médiatiques qui renforcent sans relâche ces hiérarchies.

Pour comprendre cette complexité, il faut des méthodes de recherche variées. Il faut combiner tests implicites et explicites avec des approches qualitatives qui permettent aux femmes d’exprimer, dans leurs propres termes, comment la couleur de peau influe sur leur vie.




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Mesurer les réponses inconscientes

Notre étude portait sur un échantillon de 221 femmes noires, principalement sud-africaines. Cet échantillon représentait la plus grande part des participantes à cette enquête en ligne, qui ciblait les femmes noires africaines à travers le continent.

Les participantes ont été invitées à remplir deux questionnaires d’autoévaluation sur la satisfaction à l’égard de la couleur de leur peau, ainsi que le test d’association implicite de la peau. Pour être éligibles à l’étude, les participantes devaient s’identifier comme des femmes noires africaines, être âgées d’au moins 18 ans et être disposées à répondre à des questions sur leur apparence physique.

Le test implicite montre une préférence pour la peau claire chez 78,5 % des participantes. Ce qui correspond au taux le plus élevé de blanchiment de peau observé sur le continent (les 77 % relevés au Nigéria). Les deux questionnaires d’autoévaluation donnent des chiffres beaucoup plus faibles : 18,5 % et 29,8 %.

Cet écart de mesure est important. Il pourrait suggérer que pour de nombreuses femmes africaines noires, certaines préférences pour une peau plus claire existent sans être pleinement conscientes. Ou qu’elles sont difficiles à avouer ouvertement. Une femme peut déclarer être satisfaite de sa peau, tout en ayant des associations automatiques différentes.




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Vers de meilleures recherches

En tant que chercheurs, nous ne préconisons pas l’abandon des tests basés sur l’autoévaluation. Ils permettent de saisir des éléments tels que les attitudes, les valeurs et les croyances conscientes. Ils restent indispensables pour beaucoup de sujets de recherche.

Nos conclusions soulignent plutôt la nécessité d’utiliser plusieurs méthodes pour étudier ce que les personnes interrogées pensent et ressentent.

Les tests implicites examinent des associations qui peuvent échapper à la réflexion consciente.

Les entretiens approfondis, les groupes de discussion et les méthodes centrées sur les communautés peuvent révéler des expériences qu’aucune évaluation, implicite ou non, ne peut pleinement saisir. Les méthodes mixtes ne constituent donc pas un compromis entre des outils imparfaits. C’est la réponse adaptée à un phénomène à la fois structurel, culturel et profondément personnel.

Face aux enjeux de santé publique liés à cette pratique courante mais mal comprise, la communauté scientifique a le devoir de faire mieux. Cela implique d’investir dans des outils de mesure développés spécifiquement pour et avec les femmes noires africaines. Il faut tenir compte des différences entre régions. Enfin, il faut prendre au sérieux cette réalité : ce que les femmes disent de leur corps ne reflètent pas forcément ce qu’elles ressentent réellement.

The Conversation

This article is based on a study funded by the Bentley University Research Council.

ref. Pourquoi tant de femmes africaines se blanchissent-elles la peau ? Une étude interroge leurs réponses – https://theconversation.com/pourquoi-tant-de-femmes-africaines-se-blanchissent-elles-la-peau-une-etude-interroge-leurs-reponses-281786