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October 19, 2025

Quand l’IA tue la littérature

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Stéphanie Parmentier, Chargée d’enseignement à Aix-Marseille Université (amU), docteure qualifiée en littérature française et en SIC et professeure documentaliste. Chercheuse rattachée à l’IMSIC et au CIELAM, Aix-Marseille Université (AMU)

Les textes générés par l’IA ne laissent pas les lecteurs indifférents. Pexels, CC BY

Qui aurait pensé qu’un jour les intelligences artificielles génératives rédigeraient, corrigeraient et seraient publiées ? Que vaut une littérature née sous IA ? Que devient notre imaginaire sous leur influence ? Et quels bouleversements sont à prévoir dans le monde de la littérature dans les années, ou les mois, à venir ?

Dans son essai Quand l’IA tue la littérature (PUF, 2025), Stéphanie Parmentier examine la place qu’occupent dans le domaine littéraire ces nouvelles marchandes de prose que sont les IA. Extraits.

Lorsqu’il écrit un manuscrit, un auteur cherche très rarement à le conserver uniquement pour lui-même. Dans son for intérieur, sans toujours oser se l’avouer, il espère que la qualité de ses récits captivera des lecteurs toujours plus nombreux.

Dans le circuit du livre, ce sont en effet ces derniers qui dictent l’espérance de vie d’une création littéraire, malgré le rôle majeur que jouent les éditeurs, les distributeurs ou encore les libraires dans la valorisation d’une publication. Les avis des lecteurs et leur comportement d’achat vont souvent contribuer à asseoir la carrière d’un auteur et la longévité d’un livre. Loin d’être de simples acheteurs passifs, les lecteurs possèdent un pouvoir de prescription, qui ne cesse de s’étendre jusqu’à s’imposer au monde des éditeurs.

Les nouveaux supports de communication apportent des repères inédits et redéfinissent les accès à la notoriété. Un lecteur n’a plus besoin d’adresser un courrier à un éditeur pour exprimer sa satisfaction ou sa déception après avoir lu un livre, il peut partager instantanément ses émotions et ses analyses auprès de milliers d’autres lecteurs en toute simplicité.

Depuis les années 2000, les supports permettant de donner son avis sur une publication n’ont cessé de se diversifier. L’apparition des blogs de lecteurs, des espaces de ventes de livres en ligne comme ceux de la Fnac ou d’Amazon, mais aussi des sites de partage de lectures de type Babelio ou Gleeph, sans oublier les réseaux sociaux, offre à de nombreux lecteurs la possibilité de mettre en avant leur coup de cœur, tout en exprimant leurs avis sur leur lecture ou en leur attribuant une note de satisfaction.

« Des personnes passionnées du livre et de la lecture ont investi sans retenue le net et les réseaux sociaux créant une nouvelle “sociabilité littéraire”. […] Pour elles, écrire, lire, et conseiller tout en communiquant sur ces pratiques, pourtant personnelles, sont devenus des comportements courants au point de faire naître de véritables prescripteurs littéraires. », peut-on lire dans les Cahiers du numérique en 2022.

Qu’il s’agisse des BookTubeurs, Bookstagrameurs ou BookTokeurs, ces nouveaux acteurs, appelés communément « influenceurs littéraires », avec leurs vidéos toujours plus animées pour exprimer leurs coups de cœur, occupent une place importante et inédite dans le processus de promotion d’une parution. À l’ère numérique, le pouvoir des lecteurs n’a en effet jamais été aussi grand. Ils peuvent découvrir, partager et promouvoir des œuvres, comme l’explique Chris Anderson dans la Longue Traîne, en soulignant tout le potentiel des consommateurs : « Ne sous-estimez jamais la puissance d’un million d’amateurs qui ont les clés de l’usine. »

Un équilibre constructif et bénéfique s’est établi entre les nouvelles technologies numériques et les plaisirs du lectorat. L’introduction d’IA dans la production littéraire risque pourtant de compromettre l’appréciation des lecteurs confrontée aux interférences d’algorithmes. Face à l’immixtion d’IA dans plusieurs champs littéraires, le lectorat ne semble pas encore réagir. Que pensent les lecteurs des livres nés sous IA ? Vont-ils les défendre ou au contraire, les dévaloriser ? Pour le moment, il n’y a pas encore de réactions d’adhésion ou, au contraire, de désapprobation.

La réception de textes générés par l’IA ne laisse pas pour autant les lecteurs indifférents ; elle induit des réserves et une perception plutôt sceptique. Les personnes attachées aux valeurs fondamentales de la littérature semblent les plus attentives. Redoutant les textes produits par des IA, certains lecteurs n’hésitent pas à exprimer leur crainte, notamment sur le réseau social Reddit :

« Pour moi, le problème principal est qu’en tant que lecteur, c’est que je ne veux pas lire quelque chose qui provient d’un ordinateur. Les livres sont un moyen de se connecter aux autres. Vous pouvez vous connecter à la vision du monde d’un auteur et voir comment son expérience se chevauche avec la vôtre. Il y a une sorte d’humanité partagée dans la lecture de fiction, un sentiment de compréhension et d’être compris. Appelez-moi romantique, mais je pense que c’est une grande partie de la raison pour laquelle nous lisons. Ce n’est pas seulement pour tuer le temps. Ça ne marche pas s’il n’y a pas de personne derrière les mots. »

Quand l’utilisation des IA n’est pas mentionnée dès la page de couverture, les lecteurs sont souvent désabusés en découvrant l’implication des robots génératifs au fil de leur lecture. Sur le réseau Babelio consacré à la littérature, un lecteur, malgré ses doutes, témoigne de la stupeur éprouvée en lisant la bande dessinée Mathis ou la forêt des possibles de Jiri Benovsky évoquée plus haut et dont les illustrations relèvent de l’IA :

« L’histoire commence donc et au bout de quatre ou cinq pages, je trouve qu’il y a quelque chose qui cloche, malgré la beauté époustouflante des images, je ne ressens pas la vie dans cette histoire, les personnages semblent figés, comme s’ils posaient pour la photo, une impression morbide, les textes sont dans des phylactères formatés, presque toujours la même longueur, le rythme est raide et plat. […] À la dernière page, je me suis dit : “c’est joli”. Ce n’est pas un compliment, généralement, j’utilise ce mot péjorativement. À la fin, on y trouve une postface, et sa lecture me laisse sur le cul ! […] Je découvre, avec cette postface, que cette bande dessinée a été réalisée à l’aide d’une intelligence artificielle ! »

Ces deux exemples ne sont pas isolés. Le malaise exprimé est commun à beaucoup d’autres lecteurs, devenus méfiants à l’égard de nouvelles publications dont l’identité de l’auteur n’est pas connue.

« Comment faire l’effort de lire un tel ouvrage [Internes] quand on ne sait pas quelle est l’origine du discours et ce qu’on lit ? », interroge l’auteur expérimental Grégory Chatonsky en évoquant son livre Internes. Soupçonneux à l’égard des créations littéraires qu’ils ont sous les yeux, les lecteurs tendent à modifier leur comportement. Auparavant, ils lisaient un texte écrit et validé par un esprit humain, avec l’ambition d’en savourer toute l’originalité, en toute confiance. Les lecteurs les plus avisés ont tendance à se métamorphoser en « lecteurs-scan » à la recherche de la moindre trace d’IA « fake text », car, si les robots conversationnels demeurent en général inapparents, leur patte, en revanche, est perceptible.

La perte de repère qu’entraînent les IA déstabilise la lecture et peut engendrer une certaine inquiétude chez les lecteurs, comme l’explique la chercheuse Erika Fülüop :

« Cette perte d’orientation peut donner au lecteur l’expérience d’une “inquiétante étrangeté” : les textes semblent “humains”, mais on sent un petit décalage difficile à saisir. »

Il est difficile de dire quelle attitude doivent adopter les lecteurs devant des textes « IA-géniques ». Leur faut-il systématiquement les rejeter au risque de passer à côté d’une littérature expérimentale capable d’enrichir le domaine littéraire ? Pour certains, il faut accepter ces textes malgré leur structure inhabituelle. Selon Grégory Chatonsky :

« Dans ce contexte, c’est la possibilité même d’un contrat de lecture qui est déconstruit. […] La seule façon de lire ce roman [Internes] est peut-être de suspendre la croyance en un contrat de lecture : lire sans préalable, sans attente, sans horizon. J’aimerais y entendre l’impossible des possibles. Cela est beaucoup plus difficile qu’il n’y paraît. »

En dépit de l’atmosphère déstabilisante dans laquelle se trouvent les lecteurs, certains d’entre eux affirment apprécier les textes relevant des IA. Des lecteurs écrivent des avis positifs à propos de livres générés par des IA, notamment celui de Raphaël Doan, coécrit avec une IA, intitulé Si Rome n’avait pas chuté. Sur le site Babelio mais aussi sur Amazon, plusieurs lecteurs s’enthousiasment à propos de ce roman d’anticipation, comme, Jean J. :

« Au-delà des illustrations par IA, le texte est surprenant. […] L’IA (et le coauteur humain peut-être) propose une idée radicalement neuve : une révolution industrielle qui aurait pu être plausible. Elle se débarrasse froidement des “sciences humaines” et attaque directement dans le dur. Et ça fonctionne ! »

Devant le doute que soulève l’immixtion de l’IA dans l’écriture, des chercheurs de l’université de Pittsburg ont mené une étude dont les résultats ont été publiés dans Scientific Report. Leur démarche visait à évaluer la capacité des lecteurs à distinguer des poèmes écrits par des humains de ceux générés par ChatGPT 3.5. Selon les conclusions tirées, il n’est pas simple pour les lecteurs de discerner ce qui relève d’une production humaine ou d’une création artificielle :

« Contrairement à ce qu’indiquaient des études antérieures, les gens semblent aujourd’hui incapables de distinguer de manière fiable la poésie générée par l’IA […] de la poésie écrite par l’homme et rédigée par des poètes bien connus. »

Plus surprenant, les chercheurs révèlent un phénomène inattendu, puisqu’une partie des participants préfèrent les poèmes générés par l’IA à ceux créés par des esprits humains. Pour expliquer un tel résultat, les rapporteurs de l’étude supposent que ce ne sont pas les qualités littéraires des textes générés par le robot génératif qui sont appréciées par les lecteurs mais leur facilité de lecture :

« Les gens évaluent mieux les poèmes générés par l’IA […] en partie parce qu’ils les trouvent plus simples. Dans notre étude, les poèmes générés par l’IA sont généralement plus accessibles que les poèmes écrits par des humains. »

Pour l’heure, à défaut de données précises, des nuances et des réserves s’imposent.

L’opinion n’est pas unanime, mais il serait prématuré de parler de fragmentation entre lecteurs et textes dopés à l’IA, du moins aussi longtemps que le phénomène « IA-génique » reste contenu. Sur le fond, il y a matière à rester optimiste, car il appartient aux lecteurs, sans oublier les éditeurs, de réguler la pénétration de ce type de publication dans le monde du livre. Jusqu’à présent, comme l’indique l’auteur Mark Dawson, cité par la journaliste Marine Protais :

« Si un livre reçoit de mauvaises critiques parce que l’écriture est ennuyeuse, il va rapidement sombrer. »

Mais elle ajoute :

« Enfin… Sauf si d’autres bots se mettent à noter positivement les livres de leurs collègues – hypothèse moins absurde que ce qu’on pourrait croire. »

Quand l’IA tue la littérature, Stéphanie Parmentier, Presses universitaires de France, hors collection, paru le 8 octobre 2025.

Stéphanie Parmentier ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Quand l’IA tue la littérature – https://theconversation.com/quand-lia-tue-la-litterature-267361

October 19, 2025

10 effective things citizens can do to make change in addition to attending a protest

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Shelley Inglis, Senior Visiting Scholar with the Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University

A crowd gathered for a “No Kings” protest on October 18, 2025 in Anchorage, Alaska. Hasan Akbas/Anadolu via Getty Images

What happens now?

That may well be the question being asked by “No Kings” protesters, who marched, rallied and danced all over the nation on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025.

Pro-democracy groups had aimed to encourage large numbers of Americans to demonstrate that “together we are choosing democracy.” They were successful, with crowds turning out for demonstrations in thousands of cities and towns from Anchorage to Miami.

And while multiple GOP leaders had attacked the planned demonstrations, describing them as “hate America” rallies, political science scholars and national security experts agree that the current U.S. administration’s actions are indeed placing the world’s oldest continuous constitutional republic in jeopardy.

Once a democracy starts to erode, it can be difficult to reverse the trend. Only 42% of democracies affected by autocratization – a transformation in governance that erodes democratic safeguards – since 1994 have rebounded after a democratic breakdown, according to Swedish research institute V-Dem.

Often termed “democratic backsliding,” such periods involve government-led changes to rules and norms to weaken individual freedoms and undermine or eliminate checks on power exercised by independent institutions, both governmental and non-governmental.

Democracies that have suffered setbacks vary widely, from Hungary to Brazil. As a longterm practitioner of democracy-building overseas, I know that none of these countries rival the United States’ constitutional traditions, federalist system, economic wealth, military discipline, and vibrant independent media, academia and nonprofit organizations.

Even so, practices used globally to fight democratic backsliding or topple autocracies can be instructive.

In a nutshell: Nonviolent resistance is based on noncooperation with autocratic actions. It has proven more effective in toppling autocracies than violent, armed struggle.

But it requires more than street demonstrations.

One pro-democracy organization helps train people to use video to document abuses by government.

Tactics used by pro-democracy movements

So, what does it take for democracies to bounce back from periods of autocratic rule?

Broad-scale, coordinated mobilization of a sufficient percentage of the population against autocratic takeover and for a renewed democratic future is necessary for success.

That momentum can be challenging to generate. Would-be autocrats create environments of fear and powerlessness, using intimidation, overwhelming force or political and legal attacks, and other coercive tactics to force acquiescence and chill democratic pushback.

Autocrats can’t succeed alone. They rely on what scholars call “pillars of support” – a range of government institutions, security forces, business and other sectors in society to obey their will and even bolster their power grabs.

However, everyone in society has power to erode autocratic support in various ways. While individual efforts are important, collective action increases impact and mitigates the risks of reprisals for standing up to individuals or organizations.

Here are some of the tactics used by those movements across the world:

1. Refuse unlawful, corrupt demands

When enough individuals in critical roles and institutions – the military, civil servants, corporate leaders, state government and judges – refuse to implement autocratic orders, it can slow or even stop an autocratic takeover. In South Korea, parts of the civil service, legislature and military declined to support President Yoon Suk Yeol’s imposition of martial law in 2024, foiling his autocratic move.

2. Visibly bolster the rule of law

Where would-be autocrats disregard legal restraints and install their supporters in the highest courts, individual challenges to overreach, even if successful, can be insufficient. In Poland, legal challenges in courts combined with public education by the judiciary, lawyers’ associations initiatives and street protests like the “March of a Thousand Robes” in 2020 to signal widespread repudiation of the autocratic government’s attacks on the rule of law.

3. Unite in opposition

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, Maria Corina Machado from Venezuela, is an example of how political parties and leaders who cooperate across differences can offer an alternative vision.

Novel candidates can undermine the ability of autocrats to sow division and demonize major opponents. However, coalitions can be difficult to form and sustain to win. Based on experiences overseas, historian Anne Applebaum, author of “Autocracy Inc.,” has called for a pro-democracy coalition in the U.S. that could unite independents, Libertarians, the Green Party, dissident Republicans and the Democratic Party.

4. Harness economic power

Everyday consumers can pressure wealthy elites and corporations that acquiesce to, or prop up, would-be autocrats through boycotts and other methods, like the “Tesla Takedown” in the U.S. that preceded a drop in Tesla share value and owner Elon Musk’s departure from his government role. General strikes, led by labor unions and professional associations, as in Sudan or Myanmar, can be particularly effective.

5. Preempt electoral manipulation

Voting autocrats out of office remains the best way to restore democracy, demonstrated recently by the u-turn in Brazil, where a pro-democracy candidate defeated the hard-right incumbent. But this requires strategic action to keep elections truly free and fair well in advance of election day.

6. Organize your community

As in campaigns in India starting in 2020 and Chile in 2019, participating in community or private conversation forums, local town halls or councils, and nonpartisan student, veterans, farmers, women’s and religious groups provides the space to share concerns, exchange ideas and create avenues to take action. Often starting with trusted networks, local initiatives can tap into broader statewide or national efforts to defend democracy.

7. Shape the story

Driving public opinion and communicating effectively is critical to pro-democracy efforts. Serbian students created one of the largest protest movements in decades starting in 2024 using creative resistance – artistic expression, such as visual mediums, satire and social media – to expose an autocrat’s weaknesses, reduce fear and hopelessness and build collective symbolism and resilience.

8. Build bridges and democratic alternatives

Bringing together people across ideological and other divides can increase understanding and counter political polarization, particularly when religious leaders are involved. Even in autocratic countries like Turkey or during wartime as in Ukraine, deepening democratic practices at state and local levels, like citizen assemblies and the use of technologies that improve the quality of public decision-making, can demonstrate ways to govern differently.

Parallel institutions, such as schools and tax systems operating outside the formal repressive system, like during Slobodan Milosevic’s decade-long crackdown in Kosovo, have sustained non-cooperation and shaped a future vision.

9. Document abuses, protect people, reinforce truth

With today’s technologies, every citizen can record repressive incidents, track corruption and archive historical evidence such as preserving proof of slavery at danger of being removed in public museums in the U.S., or collecting documentation of human rights violations in Syria. This can also entail bearing witness, including by accompanying those most targeted with abusive government tactics. These techniques can bolster the survival of independent and evidence-based media, science and collective memory.

10. Mitigate risk, learn and innovate

The success rate of nonviolent civil resistance is declining while repressive tactics by autocrats are evolving. Democracy defenders are forced to rapidly adjust, consistently train, prepare for diverse scenarios, try new techniques and strategically support each other.

International solidarity from global institutions, like European Union support for democrats in Belarus or Georgia, or online movements, like the Milk Tea Alliance across Southeast Asia, can bolster efforts.

Democracy’s future?

The end of American democracy is not a foregone conclusion, despite the unprecedented rate of its decline. It will depend, in part, on the choices made by every American.

With autocracies outnumbering democracies for the first time in 20 years, and only 12% of the world’s population now living in a liberal democracy, the future of the global democratic experiment may well depend on the people of the United States.

Until July 1, 2025, Shelley Inglis served as a Senior Policy Advisor in the Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights and Governance of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

– ref. 10 effective things citizens can do to make change in addition to attending a protest – https://theconversation.com/10-effective-things-citizens-can-do-to-make-change-in-addition-to-attending-a-protest-266432

October 19, 2025

How alternative teaching models can foster inclusive classrooms

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Cornelia Schneider, Professor, Education, Mount Saint Vincent University

The education of children with disabilities is a complex issue more than 30 years after “inclusive education” appeared for the first time in an important 1994 United Nations statement.

Children with disabilities too often face varied forms of exclusion with minimal interaction with their non-disabled peers — as well as disrupted or curtailed classroom time with their peers because of delayed hiring practices for support staff or urgently needed supports that never arrive.

Teachers often struggle to keep up with the challenges.

They learn during teacher education how to adapt learning content and outcomes to the diverse learners in their classrooms. But in practice, approaches such as Universal Design for Learning often do not radically change the reality for children with disabilities.

Part of my recent research has examined classroom approaches that can disrupt teaching catered to an imagined average group of learners to better foster the meaningful participation of a broader ranger of students in regular classroom routines, including disabled students.

‘Alternative pedagogies’

Alternative approaches to modern western classroom teaching — “alternative pedagogies” — can be traced to 20th century educators like Maria Montessori in Italy, Célestin Freinet in France, Peter Petersen in Germany or Helen Parkhurst in the United States.

While the movements associated with these educators didn’t have the same roots, they had a common theme: seeking to address traditional forms of classroom learning that either didn’t engage students or foster their learning — and excluded some students. All these movements recognized children’s agency and gave children more control of their learning.

Recognizing student agency

“Week plan work” is a method that developed out of these movements, and is a mode of learning that recognizes student agency and independence. Students autonomously work on curricular content within a particular time frame — most often for one week. Educators (sometimes in collaboration with children) set a plan in which learning outcomes and steps to reach those outcomes are laid out.

This method is very common in countries like Germany and the Netherlands. It’s much less common in Canada, although there are some schools that use self-directed learning, corresponding to the same ideas and principles as the week plan work. A high school in Bedford, N.S., opened its doors a couple of years ago based on self-directed learning.

As a researcher with expertise in inclusive education and practices, I collaborated with a teacher, Harriet Johnston, in the Halifax Regional Education Centre school district in Nova Scotia to test if this method would work well in Canada. We implemented the “week plan work” method in her rural high school classroom in Grade 9 and 11 English language arts. Another goal was to contribute to a culture where experimenting with alternative teaching methods is normalized.

Week plan work method

The week plan in its current iterations goes mostly back to the French reformer Célestin Freinet. Practitioners have since adapted the method to their own context.

With this approach, each week, students receive an individualized folder with a plan of tasks and activities. They have to complete this plan by the end of the week, but they can prioritize and organize tasks in the order they wish. There are materials and activities for individual or collaborative work.

The teacher monitors and mentors students. At the end of the week, there is a debriefing session and folders are collected to assess the accomplished work.

Week plans can be adapted to each student’s learning level. In a class with a rather homogeneous group of learners, the week plan might look the same for every student. In classes with heterogeneous groups of learners, week plans can be differentiated. It can vary based on outcomes, or by interests, strengths and weaknesses of particular learners.

In German elementary classes I observed in the early 2000s, teachers assigned blocks of time for students’ week plan work. As I documented in this earlier study, students learned to become more autonomous and increasingly plan and organize independently.

Week plans and staff

Teaching with week plans inverts the regular teacher-centred model, where the educator teaches and supports each student — and it can become complicated and potentially overwhelming when there is “too much” diversity.

With week plans, the teacher has to “frontload” their preparation of students’ plans, with preparation being about creating the plans. Teacher-led instruction remains a part of the class, but isn’t the predominant strategy.

The teacher is a coach or mentor. Students can solicit help, or continue to progress individually and autonomously. This frees up the teacher to focus on one-on-one work with those who require it.

Week plan and students

For our week plan project in Nova Scotia, we invited Grade 9 and 11 students to participate in focus groups and reflect on their learning.

We have not yet published the outcomes of the study — only about the approach — but our preliminary findings suggest some of the ways that changing the approach to learning positively changes the experience for all students, not only students with disabilities.

What we heard was that many appreciated the approach, as it gave them more control over their learning. It activated engagement and curiosity, while students were still achieving the Nova Scotia curriculum outcomes. Some commented on how this prepared them for the requirements of university.

Students working at desks and a teacher is looking at one of their books. — With the week plan system, students can solicit help, or continue to progress autonomously.
(Allison Shelley/The Verbatim Agency/EDUimages), CC BY-NC

Our project was also positively received by an education assistant (EA) supporting a student with a disability in the classroom. The project gave the EA explicit direction on what the student had to work on, the time frame and the resources. This shows how the week plan method structures classroom life for the support staff.

On the other hand, there were students who didn’t like the approach, as they preferred the teacher to tell them what to do and when. This was useful knowledge for us, as many students are accustomed to direct instruction. The teacher was consequently able to do more “scaffolding” — breaking down instruction into smaller chunks or systems for tackling a project.

For example, she would go over the plan with a student and discuss which task could be first and how to order the rest. She checked in more often. Students could increasingly gain more comfort and autonomy with this approach.

Self-directed learning

How might such approaches grow? The pillars of inclusion in a school are often the principal and the special education teacher, or learning support teachers.

Optimally, effective leadership and support from educational leaders — in concert with learning opportunities and resourcing for teachers — encourages them to challenge the often-difficult reality of children with disabilities in the regular classroom and respect their right to participation and belonging.

Cornelia Schneider does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How alternative teaching models can foster inclusive classrooms – https://theconversation.com/how-alternative-teaching-models-can-foster-inclusive-classrooms-264938

October 19, 2025

11 years after the Parliament Hill shooting, is Canada doing enough to tackle political violence?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Budning, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, National Security, Carleton University

Wednesday marks the 11th anniversary of the Parliament Hill shooting, when an Islamist-inspired extremist, Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, stormed Canada’s War Memorial and Parliament Hill, killing one soldier and injuring three other people.

The shooting — the worst attack on Parliament Hill since a failed bomb attempt in 1996 — sent shock waves throughout Canada, as well as internationally. It not only exposed the glaring security vulnerabilities on Parliament Hill but also marked a new reality for Canadians: political violence, long considered a distant threat, had arrived at home.

Eleven years later, many of the lessons Canada should have learned have not yet been put into action. With a marked rise in political polarization and violent attacks, it’s past due for Canada to strengthen its efforts to protect elected officials.

Extremism in Canada

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) classifies three distinct types of extremism: religious, ideological and political. While faith and grievance-based violence continue to make up the lion’s share of incidents in Canada, the threat of politically motivated violent extremism has steadily increased in recent years.

CSIS defines such extremism as “the use of violence to establish new political systems or new structures or norms within existing systems.” This definition, however, is murky in practice, since many attacks target political institutions but are motivated by either an ideological or religious grievance rather than explicit political goals.

In the case of the Parliament Hill shooting, the perpetrator committed the attack in part due to his discontent with Canada’s foreign policy in the Middle East. Though religiously motivated, his actions had political intent.

Likewise, the 2014 shooting in Moncton, N.B. that left three officers killed and two others injured, along with the 2020 vehicle ramming at the gates of the prime minister’s residence in Ottawa, were both committed by far-right extremists. While CSIS correctly classified the attacks as ideologically motivated, they too were, at their core, political.

Regardless of an attacker’s motive — ideological, religious or political — elected officials are increasingly in the line of fire.

According to the Privy Council Office, former prime minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet faced 337 threats in 2024 alone, up from just three five years earlier.

The same report showed the number of death threats rose from zero in 2019 to 56 in 2022, and 26 in the first half of 2024. When including incidents directed at MPs across party lines, the true scale of the problem is likely much greater.

The global threat

Rising political violence is a global trend. In 2024, more than 2,600 acts of violence targeted local officials across 96 countries, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.

Similarly, Freedom House, a non-profit organization aimed at strengthening democracy and protecting human rights, reported that nearly 40 per cent of countries experienced election-related violence in 2024. Politicians were attacked in at least 20 nations.

The motives behind these attacks were not monolithic; they ranged from a long list of grievances rooted in xenophobia, gender-based hostility, conspiracy theories, anti-authoritarianism, religious extremism and other perceived social or political injustices.

In the past several years, two British MPs, Jo Cox and David Amess, were killed; former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated; South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-Myung was stabbed; Slovakian President Robert Fico was seriously wounded in a shooting; and former Ukrainian parliament speaker Andriy Parubiy was shot dead.

The United States has been particularly affected by political violence, with at least 300 cases recorded since the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol. According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, plots against government targets in the past five years are nearly triple what they’ve been in the past 25 years combined.

The most notable include two failed assassination attempts on U.S. President Donald Trump in 2024, and the killing of Minnesota state representative Melissa Hortman and fatal shooting of right-wing commentator and political activist Charlie Kirk this year.

A call to action

The Parliament Hill shooting anniversary reminds us that the threat of political violence has not diminished over the past decade — it’s grown.

Despite the implementation of some security measures — such as combining three disparate security services into the Parliamentary Protective Service, expanding the armed security presence on Parliament Hill and offering the installation of security systems and mobile panic buttons for elected officials — MPs still lack sufficient protection.

Instead of being reactive in the aftermath of any future tragedies, Canada must make proactive investments to safeguard people and institutions likely to be targeted.

That means enhancing screenings before meetings, increasing access to safe rooms, bolstering security at public events, improving emergency response planning and using protective details and physical security judiciously — that is, erring on the side of caution rather than waiting for threats to escalate.

Canada should also strengthen its intelligence and law enforcement communities to counter the evolving threat. This includes:

Expanding open-source intelligence capabilities to better execute the goals laid out in Canada’s national strategy on countering radicalization to violence;
Enhancing co-ordination with municipal police forces and hate-crime units;
Ensuring the legal consequences for political violence and intimidation serve as genuine deterrents;
And learning best practices from countries like Iceland, Ireland, New Zealand and Australia, which ranked highest on the 2024 Peace Index.

Protecting Canada’s elected officials from political violence is essential, but it must never compromise a fundamental tenet of democracy: the public’s access to their leaders. Striking this balance will likely remain the greatest challenge for decision-makers, and one they simply cannot afford to get wrong.

Kevin Budning does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 11 years after the Parliament Hill shooting, is Canada doing enough to tackle political violence? – https://theconversation.com/11-years-after-the-parliament-hill-shooting-is-canada-doing-enough-to-tackle-political-violence-265932

October 19, 2025

Do dogs behave differently during an owner’s pregnancy? Many dog owners think so

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Catherine Reeve, Post doctoral fellow, Mount Saint Vincent University

From getting extra cuddles to vigilant protection, many expectant parents claim their dogs behave differently during pregnancy — sometimes even before the person knew they were pregnant themselves.

Dogs have shared our lives for around 35,000 years, and in that time, they’ve become remarkably attuned to us, picking up on our behaviour, communication, emotions and even our mental and physical health.

Pregnancy, meanwhile, brings about all sorts of physical, emotional and lifestyle changes. For dogs, that might mean fewer walks or play sessions, shifts in their owner’s mood or scent and even changes to the home environment. It’s no wonder, then, that dogs might respond to a pregnancy with changes in their own behaviour.

But how common are these reports? And what kinds of behaviour changes do owners actually notice? Are there any factors that seem to be related to whether dog owners report that their dogs’ behaviour changed when the owner became pregnant?

As a researcher in the field of dog behaviour and human-animal interactions, I wanted to explore this phenomenon further to help us understand how attuned dogs may be to the people they live with, and the depth of the human-animal bond. So my research team and I were the first to systematically document this phenomenon.

Surveying dog owners

We surveyed 130 people who owned a dog while pregnant with questions about their pregnancy, their dogs’ behaviour and their relationship with their dog.

More specifically, we first asked participants about their dogs’ behaviour before they became pregnant. We presented them with five behaviour categories: attention seeking, guarding with familiar people, guarding with unfamiliar people, fear/anxiety towards the owner and fear/anxiety towards other dogs.

Each category contained a list of behaviours that characterized that category, and we asked participants to select any behaviours their dog typically displayed within that category. For example, the attention seeking category contained behaviours like “”cuddling you” and “sniffing you,” whereas the guarding around familiar people category contained behaviours like “moving between you and a familiar person” and “growling at a familiar person.”

Then, we asked participants if they believed that their dogs’ behaviour changed during their pregnancy. If they answered yes, we asked them if they believed their dogs’ behaviour changed before they were aware they were pregnant. We then presented them with the same five categories of behaviours described above and asked them to select those behaviours they believe their dog displayed during their pregnancy.

What we found

Nearly two-thirds (64.5 per cent) of our participants reported that their dogs’ behaviour changed when they became pregnant. A further 26.9 per cent of participants reported that they believed their dogs’ behaviour changed before they were aware that they were pregnant.

When we compared owners’ reports of their dogs behaviour during pregnancy compared to before pregnancy, four out of the five categories of behaviours showed significant increases during pregnancy: attention seeking, guarding with familiar people, guarding with unfamiliar people and fear/anxiety towards other dogs.

Attention seeking had the greatest increase, with 67.1 per cent of participants reporting more attention-seeking behaviours during pregnancy compared to before pregnancy.

When we analyzed whether pregnancy variables or dogs’ behaviour before pregnancy could help predict which dogs’ behaviour would change later, we found that owners who described their dogs as more protective around unfamiliar people before pregnancy were also more likely to report changes in their dogs’ behaviour during pregnancy.

Conversely, participants who reported that their dogs showed more fear/anxiety towards other dogs were less likely to report that their dogs’ behaviour changed during pregnancy.

Why it matters

This study was the first to systematically show that many dog owners believe their dogs’ behaviour changes during pregnancy. While our findings rely on owners’ perceptions, and we know people aren’t always spot-on when interpreting their dogs’ behaviour, these insights are still valuable. They help reveal whether this is a common enough experience to explore further, and they remind us that what owners believe about their dogs can shape how they care for them.

Understanding which behaviours are most often reported can also help expectant owners better prepare both themselves and their dogs for the transition ahead. That might mean keeping to a predictable walk schedule (with a little help from friends or family), setting up calm retreat spaces and rewarding relaxed behaviour.

Pregnancy dramatically changes the lives of expectant parents, and many dog owners see their dogs change with it. Understanding what dog owners notice about their dogs’ behaviour can help families support themselves and their dogs through this transition, strengthening the bond that has evolved over thousands of years.

Catherine Reeve receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council.

– ref. Do dogs behave differently during an owner’s pregnancy? Many dog owners think so – https://theconversation.com/do-dogs-behave-differently-during-an-owners-pregnancy-many-dog-owners-think-so-266552

October 19, 2025

Marineland’s decline raises questions about the future of zoo tourism

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ann-Kathrin McLean, Assistant Professor, School of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Royal Roads University

Thirty beluga whales are at the risk of being euthanized at the now-shuttered Marineland zoo and amusement park in Niagara Falls. Marineland said in a letter to Canada’s Fisheries Minister Joanne Thompson it will have to euthanize the whales if it doesn’t receive the necessary financial support to relocate them.

The park has come under intense scrutiny recently due to the ongoing struggle to relocate its remaining whales amid financial struggles, a lack of resources and crumbling infrastructure.

Canada passed the Ending the Captivity of Whales and Dolphins Act in 2019 that prohibits whales, dolphins and porpoises from being taken into captivity. However, the law does not apply retroactively, meaning whales already held in facilities such as Marineland were allowed to remain there.

Marineland, which opened in 1961 in Canada, was once a massive tourism attraction that drew up to 1.2 million visitors annually to see its choreographed aquatic shows. But the park has been closed to the public since the end of summer 2024 after years of controversy and lawsuits.

The park’s reputation has unravelled over the years following a string of beluga whale deaths and other allegations of animal mistreatment.

Marineland’s decline is emblematic of the broader debate over zoo tourism and the ethics of keeping animals in captivity for entertainment.

Understanding zoo tourism

There are 23 accredited zoos in Canada. Accreditation is assigned through Canada’s Accredited Zoos and Aquariums (CAZA), a not-for-profit organization that ensures the health and welfare of captive wildlife with a mission of “inspiring a future where wildlife and people thrive together.”

Zoo tourism is an industry that is both economic and culturally significant in Canada. Roughly 1,520 people are employed in zoos across Canada, which attracted nearly four million visitors in 2020.

But even accredited facilities are not immune to ethical and welfare concerns. In 2022, the B.C. SPCA opened an investigation into the Vancouver Aquarium and Greater Vancouver Zoo following allegations of animal cruelty. Marineland, another accredited zoo, has also appeared to struggle with providing adequate care for its animals in recent years.

The ethics of zoo tourism have come under increasing scrutiny as a result of incidents like these. Critics argue animals and marine life in zoos and parks should not be viewed solely as sources of human entertainment, but as beings that deserve ethical stewardship.

Conservation, education-focused facilities

Zoo tourism must shift to providing educational and research opportunities to shape the way people think about zoo tourism. Across Canada, several facilities are redefining what ethical captivity can look like.

Ecological reserves and conservation parks such as the BC Wildlife Park and the Raptors Centre are examples of educational conservatories for animals.

The BC Wildlife Park in Kamloops was recently biosphere-certified, a designation that recognizes its commitment to sustainability, wildlife conservation and alignment with the 17 United Nations sustainable development goals.

Further north, the ethos of the Yukon Wildlife Preserve is firmly rooted in the principles of animal welfare and ecological conservation. Established in 2003 on the site of a former game farm, the preserve focuses on the rehabilitation and preservation of animals that are native to the region. Its mission includes cultivating “reciprocal, respectful relationships between people and the natural world.”

Reciprocity between species is a concept that most people are not thinking about when visiting a zoo or aquarium. The relationship between visitors and animals is starting to get re-examined in the public consciousness.

As this concept gains traction, institutions like the Yukon Wildlife Preserve are working to ensure encounters between visitors and wildlife contribute to animal welfare, education and ecological understanding.

Toward a more ethical future for zoo tourism

We cannot undo the past but we can influence the future of animal welfare and conservation. Efforts are already underway to redefine how wildlife is experienced and protected.

In British Columbia, the Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program recently acquired a 274-acre property dedicated to creating a humane habitat for rescued grizzly bears. In Victoria, the Parkside Hotel & Spa is part of an initiative to raise funds to support dolphin rescue and rehabilitation work worldwide.

Innovations like hologram zoos being piloted in Ontario, Australia and China demonstrate how technology could replace live animal performances.

Public attitudes are shifting as people become more aware of ecological protection and animal welfare. What has clearly fallen out of public favour are animals trained to perform in captivity for their food and our entertainment.

The transformation of aquariums and zoos will not happen overnight. But continued investment in ecological education and public involvement can help create a more balanced relationship between humans and wildlife. A balanced approach to zoo tourism will require conservation efforts by experts in the field of research, education and animal well-being.

Ann-Kathrin McLean is affiliated with Tourism and Travel Research Association Canada (TTRA).

Moira A. McDonald is affiliated with Tourism and Travel Research Association Canada (TTRA).

Carina Yao and Thomas Worry do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Marineland’s decline raises questions about the future of zoo tourism – https://theconversation.com/marinelands-decline-raises-questions-about-the-future-of-zoo-tourism-266672

October 19, 2025

Should Boko Haram fighters be given a second chance in society? We asked 2,000 young Nigerians

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Amélie Godefroidt, Assistant Professor in Conflict Management, IÉSEG School of Management; KU Leuven

Across the world, the question of how to deal with former fighters remains urgent. From Nigeria and Iraq to Syria and the Sahel, governments are wrestling with how to bring people who once fought for violent groups back into society. Reintegrating ex-fighters – after appropriate punishment – is unavoidable. This is because alternatives such as indefinite detention, capital punishment or abandonment are unsustainable and risk fuelling future cycles of violence.

Yet local communities often seem to resist welcoming ex-combatants back.

How, then, can societies balance the need for reintegration with local resistance?

As scholars of public opinion during and after episodes of political violence, we set out to better understand these tensions. We have years of fieldwork experience in Nigeria and other conflict-affected settings and, together with our local team, we conducted a study to assess citizens’ views on reintegration. How risky would it be to take a certain person back? And does this person deserve a second chance?

Our research was conduced in Nigeria, where Boko Haram’s insurgency has devastated communities for more than two decades. As the group has weakened and thousands of fighters have surrendered, the government has launched programmes to reintegrate them into civilian life. These initiatives have achieved limited success so far, as many citizens remain wary and resistant to their return.

We surveyed around 2,000 young Nigerians and asked them to evaluate different hypothetical profiles of former Boko Haram fighters. This allowed us to see how different characteristics shaped public preferences.

We found that respondents were more forgiving towards former fighters who were forced to join the insurgency and expressed remorse afterwards. They were less willing to reintegrate more militant and less repentant offenders.

Our findings speak to several high-level policy debates today. Nigeria continues to run reintegration programmes. While some returnees have successfully rejoined their communities, others have faced suspicion, threats, and even renewed displacement.

What we found

Three patterns stood out:

Why they joined matters.
People were far more open to reintegrating fighters who were forcibly recruited or joined as children than those who joined voluntarily – especially for ideological reasons. As one respondent put it:

Young fighters had little guidance or knowledge of what trouble they were going into.

What they do after leaving matters even more.
Former fighters who left voluntarily and took part in reconciliation efforts, especially cooperating with the police or army in their fight against Boko Haram, enjoyed much stronger public support. One respondent even went a step further, suggesting that

instead of a prison sentence, former militias should serve a period of compulsory community service rebuilding the states they have destroyed.

Some atrocities were harder to forgive.
As one participant put it:

The only precondition is that they have never taken a life. No killer deserves to be free, let alone get amnesty.

Still, our experimental results show this mattered less than one might expect: while people were reluctant to accept those who committed severe violence, the circumstances of joining and leaving weighed more heavily.

These same patterns also influenced whether people believed reintegration would succeed, and what punishments they thought appropriate. Fighters who were forced to join and left voluntarily were expected to reintegrate successfully and were more likely to be granted amnesty. Fighters seen as willing culprits who refused reconciliation were more often judged to deserve the death penalty.

Importantly, these patterns held broadly across different groups – whether respondents were Christian or Muslim, from the north or south, victims or non-victims of Boko Haram violence.

In short: willingness to forgive depended less on the violence of the past than on whether ex-fighters signalled remorse and a genuine commitment to peace today.

Why this matters

Our research suggests that reintegration and reconciliation is more likely to succeed when:

(1) Clear conditions are set. Linking reintegration to reconciliatory behaviour can reassure communities.

(2) Citizens are informed. Communication campaigns that explain how some fighters were coerced, or highlight the risks taken by those who defected, can reduce public resistance.

(3) Reconciliation is made visible. Publicising ex-fighters’ efforts to cooperate with authorities or support victims helps rebuild trust.

The lesson is simple but often overlooked: preparing societies for the return of ex-fighters is as important as preparing the fighters themselves. Without community buy-in, reintegration risks deepening divides instead of healing them.

Amélie Godefroidt received funding from the Research Foundation Flanders–FWO for this study.

– ref. Should Boko Haram fighters be given a second chance in society? We asked 2,000 young Nigerians – https://theconversation.com/should-boko-haram-fighters-be-given-a-second-chance-in-society-we-asked-2-000-young-nigerians-266289

October 18, 2025

Pennsylvania’s budget crisis drags on as fed shutdown adds to residents’ hardships — a political scientist explains

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel J. Mallinson, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Penn State

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s first budget, in 2023, was not fully passed until mid-December. AP Photo/Daniel Shanken

While Americans across the country deal with the consequences of the federal government shutdown, residents of Pennsylvania are being hit with a double blow.

Pennsylvania has been without a state budget for over 100 days – and remains the only state currently operating without a budget.

As a political scientist at Penn State who studies state politics and policy, I see how Pennsylvania’s budget impasse has ripple effects that are compounded by the current budget problems in Washington.

Let’s look at the present budget problems in Pennsylvania and what we can learn from past battles over the state budget.

A double crisis

Double government budget crises, like the one Pennsylvania faces now, are rare. One reason is that 46 states, including Pennsylvania, begin their new fiscal year on July 1. The federal government’s fiscal year begins on Oct. 1. Even a state like Pennsylvania, that has had late budgets for eight of the last 10 years, would have to be very late in passing a budget for it to potentially coincide with a federal budget impasse. And, of course, federal government shutdowns do not happen all the time.

Men in suits shown in shadow underneath elaborate ceiling with arches — A group of Republican senators talk at the U.S. Capitol Building on Oct. 15, 2025, during a government shutdown that began Oct. 1.
Andrew Harnik via Getty Images

Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro faces a delicate political environment in Harrisburg – as he has since his first budget in 2023. The Democrats control the state House by a single seat, whereas the Republicans have a comfortable majority in the Senate.

The parties have been debating over the last several budget cycles how to handle funding surpluses – much of which came from Biden-era legislation like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – and when and how to deal with the inevitable end to those surpluses.

This year, the two sides are far apart on their views of the proper spending level.

The Democrats in the House passed a US$50.3 billion spending plan, but Senate Republicans want to keep state spending flat at $47.6 billion. The two sides have clashed over proposals surrounding school vouchers, marijuana legalization and more.

As for the federal government, Republicans have a trifecta – control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives – but do not have the 60 votes in the Senate required to overcome a filibuster. Democrats have dug in over reversing cuts to health care from the earlier passed “one big beautiful bill” and expiring Obamacare subsidies.

There is little sign of an immediate end to either impasse.

In Pennsylvania, there is growing frustration on both sides about an inability to compromise. Nationally, House Speaker Mike Johnson has speculated that this may end up being the longest federal government shutdown in history. In neither case, though, does there seem to be a great deal of urgency in coming to a compromise.

Effects on Pennsylvania

These dual crises are affecting Pennsylvanians in many ways. The state government continues to function even without a budget, but counties, school districts and nonprofit organizations that rely on state funding are being forced to make difficult operating choices.

Some counties like Westmoreland and Northampton are beginning the process of furloughing employees. School districts are taking out loans, freezing hiring and deferring spending. The state already owes school districts more than $3 billion in missed payments for the past three months.

Woman reaches for loaf of bread on shelf that contains food products — Cozy Wilkins, 66, stocks the shelves at New Bethany, a nonprofit that provides food access, housing and social services, in Bethlehem, Pa., on July, 22, 2024.
Ryan Collerd/AFP via Getty Images

The social safety net is also fraying as social service organizations, like rape crisis centers and mental health providers, are also expending reserves, taking out loans and furloughing employees.

Then comes the federal shutdown.

Military families nationwide have been hit particularly hard, with many turning to food pantries to help meet their needs. The recent money maneuvers at the Department of Defense to pay active-duty and activated National Guard and Reserves personnel is temporary. The commonwealth also has the eighth-highest population of federal civilian employees, at over 66,000 who are not being paid.

Services like food banks are especially vulnerable in this situation, as they are seeing greater demand – which may increase due to federal workers going unpaid – but rely on both the state and federal governments for subsidies. Just this week, it was announced that Pennsylvanians buying health care through the state’s Affordable Care Act marketplace for 2026 should expect a 22% increase in premiums, on average. Part of that increase is due to expectations around the expiring Obamacare subsidies at the center of the Democrats’ demands in this shutdown.

All of these forces are coming together to pinch Pennsylvania residents.

Echoes of the past

While the compounding pain of the federal shutdown is unique, long budget delays in Pennsylvania are not.

In 2023, Gov. Shapiro’s first budget was not fully passed until Dec. 14. That budget was fundamentally delayed by the acrimonious implosion of a deal on school voucher spending between the governor and Senate Republicans. The budget negotiations ended after some horse-trading on specific programs, like removing the popular Whole-Home Repairs Program started during the COVID-19 pandemic but adding funding for lead and asbestos abatement in schools.

The difference between then and now, however, is that back then the governor and General Assembly agreed on the overall budget, but typical bargaining was needed to get the votes needed to pass the spending bills after the voucher blow-up. This time, the parties are almost $3 billion apart in what should even be spent.

In the end, however, both Pennsylvania and the federal government will pass budgets, and I expect that each will be the result of protracted negotiations over multiple spending items, as Americans have seen in the past. The question is: How much pain will citizens, nonprofits and local governments face in the interim?

Read more of our stories about Philadelphia and Pennsylvania, or sign up for our Philadelphia newsletter on Substack.

Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Pennsylvania’s budget crisis drags on as fed shutdown adds to residents’ hardships — a political scientist explains – https://theconversation.com/pennsylvanias-budget-crisis-drags-on-as-fed-shutdown-adds-to-residents-hardships-a-political-scientist-explains-267382

October 18, 2025

Comment les trafiquants de cocaïne blanchissent l’argent des cartels

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Pierre-Charles Pradier, Maître de conférences en Sciences économiques, LabEx RéFi, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

Le 4 mai 2016, la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) décide de cesser l’émission des billets de 500 euros. Le nombre de ces billets en circulation passe de 614 millions, fin 2015, à un peu moins de 220 millions, au milieu de l’année 2025. DerkachevArtem/Shutterstock

Pour blanchir l’argent tiré de la vente de cocaïne, les trafiquants ont longtemps convoyé leurs recettes en utilisant des billets de 500 euros confiés à des « mules ». La surveillance accrue et la raréfaction des grosses coupures ont conduit les réseaux de blanchiment à payer les trafiquants de drogue en cryptomonnaies et à expédier les espèces sur des routes plus tranquilles, comme celles menant à Dubaï (Émirats arabes unis).

Le marché de la cocaïne a explosé entre 2014 et 2023. La production en Colombie a été multipliée par plus de sept pour atteindre, selon l’Organisation des Nations unies contre la drogue et le crime (ONUDC), près de 2 700 tonnes.

En coulisse, les trafiquants de drogue trouvent des moyens tout aussi illicites pour payer leurs fournisseurs, leurs petites mains ou pour dépenser le fruit de leur commerce criminel. La solution utilisée : le blanchiment d’argent. On estime que 25 % des montants collectés doivent être blanchis.

Trois phases sont généralement nécessaires dans le blanchiment : le placement dans le système financier, l’empilement (ou layering) avec le but de perdre la trace de l’origine des fonds et, enfin, l’intégration, où l’argent apparaît désormais légitime. Cette typologie ne permet pas de comprendre que le blanchiment est parfois partiel, c’est-à-dire qu’on s’arrête à la première étape. Considérons un exemple.

Prenons l’argent tiré de la cocaïne en provenance du principal exportateur de la coca : la Colombie. Une partie est intégralement blanchie sur place, en réinjectant l’argent liquide dans des commerces légitimes – restaurants, salons de coiffure, etc. –, tandis qu’une autre partie sert à payer la marchandise. Pour ce faire, il a longtemps suffi de fournir des espèces – en billets de banque –, dont le blanchiment s’achevait en Colombie.

Contrebande d’espèces

En Europe, elles sont changées en billets de 500 euros par des complices travaillant dans des banques puis confiées à des mules d’argent. Ces dernières prennent l’avion avec des sommes de 200 000 à 500 000 euros. Cette contrebande d’espèces en vrac (bulk cash smuggling) est le maillon de la chaîne du trafic de drogue ayant bénéficié à l’apparition des cryptomonnaies dans le trafic de drogue.

Pour bien comprendre l’emploi des cryptomonnaies dans le blanchiment de l’argent de la drogue, il faut expliciter les modalités de la contrebande d’espèces en vrac. Un article de Peter Reute et Melvin Soudijn (le premier est criminologue et le second officier de renseignement dans la police néerlandaise) a permis de mesurer précisément les coûts de cette opération. Ils ont accédé aux documents comptables des trafiquants dans six affaires jugées pour des faits qui se sont déroulés entre 2003 et 2008. Ils totalisent 800 millions d’euros transportés entre les Pays-Bas et la Colombie.

Les coûts représentaient environ 3 % pour le changement des petites coupures en billets de 500 euros, autant pour rémunérer la mule, un peu moins pour son voyage. La surveillance importante de l’aéroport d’Amsterdam-Schiphol obligeait à prendre l’avion ailleurs en Europe. Si on tient compte des frais annexes, le seul transport de fonds à destination de la Colombie coûtait entre 10 % et 15 %, voire jusqu’à 17 % des montants déplacés.

Concrètement :

La cocaïne part de Colombie.
Elle est vendue par des intermédiaires en Europe.
L’argent collecté de cette vente est changé en billets de 500 euros, moyennant 3 % de frais.
Les billets de 500 euros sont confiés à des mules, moyennant 3 % de frais.
Les mules voyagent vers la Colombie, moyennant 3 % de frais.
L’argent liquide arrive en Colombie pour payer la drogue, puis est blanchi sur place, avec encore des frais.

Pour les auteurs, la réglementation anti-blanchiment réussit à augmenter significativement les coûts de la contrebande, notamment le transport, mais pas le prix de vente, puisque le marché de la cocaïne augmente chaque année en France. En France, les prévalences de consommation ont été multipliées par neuf depuis 2000. Pour pallier ces réglementations, les trafiquants misent sur le billet de 500 euros.

Fin des billets de 500 euros

Rebondissement le 4 mai 2016 : la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) décide de cesser l’émission des billets de 500 euros. Le nombre de ces billets en circulation passe de 614 millions, fin 2015, à un peu moins de 220 millions au milieu de l’année 2025).

« Il a été décidé de mettre fin de façon permanente à la production du billet de 500 euros et de le retirer de la série “Europe”, tenant compte des préoccupations selon lesquelles cette coupure pourrait faciliter les activités illicites », souligne la Banque centrale européenne.

Cette même année, un nouvel actif financier entre en trombe : le bitcoin.

Apparition des cryptomonnaies

À partir de 2016, face à la raréfaction des billets de 500 euros, le bitcoin va contribuer à reconfigurer les routes du trafic d’espèces.

Au lieu d’une filière intégrée où les espèces reviennent à la source de la drogue pour payer les livraisons, on assiste à une spécialisation. D’un côté, les trafiquants de drogue échangent leurs espèces contre des cryptomonnaies qu’ils utilisent pour payer leur approvisionnement en Colombie. De l’autre, une filière de blanchiment récupère les billets et les fait voyager sur des routes plus faciles, comme celles menant à Dubaï (Émirats arabes unis).

Comment sait-on cela ? Par exemple, grâce à l’opération Destabilize de la National Crime Agency britannique. Le dossier de presse décrit un réseau international de blanchiment, contrôlé par des Russes. Ils utilisaient une plateforme d’échange n’exerçant pas son obligation de vigilance, Garantex, pour les opérations en cryptomonnaies, et Dubaï pour les opérations en espèces.

Le réseau de blanchiment récoltait les espèces des trafiquants de drogue et les payait en cryptojetons (notamment en USDT-Tether), moyennant 3 % de frais seulement. Par comparaison avec les 10 % à 15 % que coûtait le transport en Colombie avant la mise en extinction des billets de 500 euros, c’est une économie de 70 % à 80 %.

Cadre de déclaration des cryptoactifs

Les cryptomonnaies – d’abord le bitcoin et, désormais, les stablecoins comme l’USDT-Tether – ont permis aux trafiquants de drogue d’économiser leur marge sur l’envoi d’espèces en choisissant les routes les plus sûres. Il est trop tôt pour savoir si l’augmentation considérable du trafic de drogue transatlantique, attestée par une enquête récente du Financial Times, est liée à cette innovation technique.

Concrètement, la nouvelle méthode suit cette nouvelle route entre les trafiquants de drogue et les réseaux de blanchiment :

La cocaïne part de Colombie.
Elle est vendue par des intermédiaires en Europe.
L’argent collecté de cette vente est changé contre des cryptomonnaies USDT- Tether, moyennant 3 % de frais.
Les cryptomonnaies USDT-Tether sont envoyées en Colombie pour payer la drogue.
Pour le réseau de blanchiment, les espèces sont confiées à des mules, qui voyagent à Dubaï, moyennant 1 % de frais.
À Dubaï, les espèces sont blanchies, moyennant 1 % de frais.

Législation contre le blanchiment par cryptoactif

On peut penser que l’application des règles antiblanchiment aux prestataires de services liés aux cryptoactifs, dans les pays signataires du Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework_, va compliquer le jeu des organisations criminelles… qui sauront pourtant trouver les moindres failles et les exploiter.

L’invention des cryptomonnaies a fait perdre des années dans la lutte contre la criminalité organisée, mais la « coalition des volontaires », comme la Suisse, les Bahamas, Malte ou la France s’organise enfin.

En France, la lutte contre le blanchiment d’argent est renforcée par une loi « visant à sortir la France du piège du narcotrafic », promulguée en juin 2025. Un parquet national spécialisé est créé. Des mesures sont mises en place, de la fermeture administrative des commerces de façade (par les préfets plutôt que les maires trop exposés), le gel des avoirs des narcotrafiquants ou contre le mix de cryptoactifs.

Mais les trafiquants s’adaptent pour éviter d’être pris, c’est ce que nous verrons dans un second article.

A travaillé pour la Direction de la Surveillance du Territoire dans les années 1990.

– ref. Comment les trafiquants de cocaïne blanchissent l’argent des cartels – https://theconversation.com/comment-les-trafiquants-de-coca-ne-blanchissent-largent-des-cartels-265140

October 18, 2025

Tempête record en Alaska : comment le passage de l’ex-typhon Halong a pris tout le monde de court

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Rick Thoman, Alaska Climate Specialist, University of Alaska Fairbanks

Un hélicoptère de la Garde côtière survole des maisons inondées à Kipnuk, en Alaska, le 12 octobre 2025. U.S. Coast Guard

Avec la montée des eaux, le dégel du pergélisol et des prévisions tardives, la catastrophe provoquée par le passage de Halong met en lumière les défis d’adaptation à venir pour les communautés isolées d’Alaska.

Les vestiges d’un puissant typhon ont déferlé le 12 octobre 2025 sur le delta du Yukon-Kuskokwim, dans l’ouest de l’Alaska aux États-Unis, soulevant une onde de tempête qui a inondé des villages jusqu’à près de 100 kilomètres à l’intérieur des terres. Selon les autorités, les eaux ont arraché des maisons à leurs fondations et en ont emporté certaines avec leurs occupants. Plus de cinquante personnes ont dû être secourues à Kipnuk et Kwigillingok, des centaines d’habitants ont été déplacés dans la région et au moins une personne a perdu la vie.

Le typhon Halong était un phénomène inhabituel, sans doute alimenté par les températures de surface de l’océan Pacifique, proches de records cet automne. Son passage à cette période de l’année rendra la reconstruction encore plus difficile pour les communautés durement touchées, comme l’explique le météorologue Rick Thoman, de l’Université d’Alaska à Fairbanks.

Les catastrophes en Alaska rural ne ressemblent à aucune autre aux États-Unis, précise-t-il. Alors que les habitants de la côte Est, frappés le même week-end par une tempête ayant inondé le New Jersey et d’autres États, ont pu se rendre dans un magasin de bricolage pour acheter du matériel ou réserver une chambre d’hôtel en cas d’inondation, rien de tout cela n’existe dans les villages autochtones isolés d’Alaska.

Zones inondées en Alaska — La montée des eaux et les vents violents provoqués par l’ex-typhon Halong ont arraché des maisons à leurs fondations et en ont fait dériver certaines.
U.S. Coast Guard via AP

Qu’est-ce qui rendait cette tempête inhabituelle ?

Halong était un ex-typhon, semblable à Merbok en 2022, lorsqu’il a atteint le delta. Une semaine plus tôt, il s’agissait encore d’un puissant typhon à l’est du Japon. Le jet stream l’a ensuite entraîné vers le nord-est, un phénomène assez courant, et les modèles météorologiques avaient plutôt bien prévu sa trajectoire jusqu’à la mer de Béring.

Mais à l’approche de l’Alaska, tout a déraillé.

Les prévisions des modèles ont changé, indiquant une tempête se déplaçant plus rapidement, et Halong a suivi une trajectoire très inhabituelle, passant entre l’île Saint-Laurent et la côte du delta du Yukon-Kuskokwim.

Carte de suivi du typhon. — Trajectoire de l’ex-typhon Halong, montrant sa remontée vers le delta du Yukon-Kuskokwim, en Alaska.
Rick Thoman

Contrairement à Merbok, dont les modèles mondiaux avaient très bien anticipé la trajectoire, celle de Halong — ainsi que son intensité finale — n’étaient pas claires avant que la tempête ne soit à moins de 36 heures des eaux territoriales de l’Alaska. C’était bien trop tard pour organiser des évacuations dans de nombreuses localités.

La perte des données du programme de ballons météorologiques, suspendu en 2025, a-t-elle affecté les prévisions ?

C’est une question qui fera l’objet de recherches futures, mais voici ce que l’on sait avec certitude : il n’y a eu aucune observation en altitude par ballon météorologique à l’île Saint-Paul, dans la mer de Béring, depuis la fin du mois d’août, ni à Kotzebue depuis février. À Bethel et Cold Bay, les lancements sont limités à un par jour au lieu de deux. À Nome, aucun ballon n’a été envoyé pendant deux jours entiers alors que la tempête se dirigeait vers la mer de Béring.

Est-ce que cela a faussé les prévisions ? On ne le sait pas, faute de données, mais il semble probable que cela ait eu un effet sur la performance des modèles.

Pourquoi la région du delta est-elle si vulnérable face à une tempête comme Halong ?

Le terrain, dans cette partie ouest de l’Alaska, est très plat, ce qui permet à de fortes tempêtes de faire pénétrer l’océan dans le delta, où l’eau se répand largement.

La plupart des terres se trouvent très près du niveau de la mer, parfois à moins de trois mètres au-dessus de la ligne de marée haute. Le dégel du pergélisol, l’affaissement du sol et la montée du niveau de la mer accentuent encore le risque. Pour de nombreuses personnes, il n’existe littéralement aucun endroit où se réfugier. Même Bethel, la plus grande ville de la région, située à une centaine de kilomètres en amont sur la rivière Kuskokwim, a connu des inondations provoquées par Halong.

Ce sont des communautés très isolées, sans routes menant aux villes. On ne peut y accéder que par bateau ou par avion. Aujourd’hui, de nombreuses personnes s’y retrouvent sans logement, alors que l’hiver approche.

Des habitants autochtones de Kipnuk évoquent les défis posés par la disparition du pergélisol et le changement climatique dans leur village. Alaska Institute for Justice.

Ces villages sont également de petite taille. Ils ne disposent ni de logements supplémentaires ni des ressources nécessaires pour se relever rapidement. La région se remettait déjà d’importantes inondations survenues à l’été 2024. La tribu de Kipnuk a pu obtenir une aide fédérale pour catastrophe naturelle, mais celle-ci n’a été approuvée qu’au début de janvier 2025.

À quoi ces communautés sont-elles confrontées pour la reconstruction ?

Les habitants vont devoir prendre des décisions très difficiles. Faut-il quitter la communauté pour l’hiver et espérer reconstruire l’été prochain ?

Il y a sans doute très peu de logements disponibles dans la région, d’autant que les inondations ont été étendues et qu’il existe déjà une pénurie de logements. Les personnes déplacées doivent-elles se rendre à Anchorage ? La vie en ville y est coûteuse. Il n’existe pas de solution simple.

La reconstruction dans des endroits comme Kipnuk est logiquement complexe. On ne peut pas simplement décrocher son téléphone et appeler un entrepreneur local. Presque tous les matériaux doivent être acheminés par barge – du contreplaqué aux clous en passant par les fenêtres – et cela ne se fera pas en hiver. Impossible de transporter quoi que ce soit par camion : il n’y a pas de routes. Les avions ne peuvent transporter que de petites quantités, car les pistes sont courtes et non adaptées aux avions cargo.

La Garde nationale pourrait peut-être aider à acheminer des fournitures par avion. Mais il faut encore disposer de personnes capables d’assurer la construction et les réparations. Tout devient cent fois plus compliqué lorsqu’il s’agit de bâtir dans des communautés isolées. Même si une aide nationale ou fédérale est approuvée, la plupart des maisons ne pourraient être reconstruites qu’à l’été prochain.

Le changement climatique joue-t-il un rôle dans ce type de tempêtes ?

Ce sera une autre question à explorer dans de futures recherches, mais la température de surface de la mer dans la majeure partie du Pacifique Nord, que le typhon Halong a traversée avant d’atteindre les îles Aléoutiennes, était bien plus élevée que la normale. Les eaux chaudes alimentent les tempêtes.

Carte animée montrant les températures des eaux de surface dans le Pacifique Nord. — Une comparaison des températures quotidiennes de surface de la mer montre à quel point une grande partie du Pacifique Nord était anormalement chaude avant et pendant le passage du typhon Halong.
NOAA Coral Reef Watch

Halong a également entraîné avec lui une masse d’air très chaud vers le nord. À l’est de sa trajectoire, le 11 octobre, Unalaska a enregistré 20 °C, un record absolu pour un mois d’octobre à cet endroit.

Rick Thoman a pris sa retraite du service météorologique national (National Weather Service) de la région Alaska en 2018.

– ref. Tempête record en Alaska : comment le passage de l’ex-typhon Halong a pris tout le monde de court – https://theconversation.com/tempete-record-en-alaska-comment-le-passage-de-lex-typhon-halong-a-pris-tout-le-monde-de-court-267688