Category: The Conversation

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Hargy, Visiting Research Fellow in International Studies, Queen’s University Belfast

Donald Trump is clearly concerned about the midterm elections that loom next November, which look to be a referendum on his administration. All seats in the House of Representatives will be up for grabs as will one-third of the Senate. Losing control of the House would severely crimp the US president’s ability to govern the way he has for the first nine months of his second term.

Trump has already voiced some unease about the election. In a recent interview with the One America News (OAN) network he stated: “The one thing that I worry about is that… I don’t have the numbers, but the person that wins the presidency always seems to lose the midterms”.

There’s a clue to the president’s apprehension about the numbers from the 2024 general election results. Despite winning the popular vote in 2024, the Republican vote in the House fell by 0.2 percentage points, as a result the GOP (the Republicans) lost two seats, leaving them with a majority of only five seats.

Trump knows from bitter experience what could happen if he loses control of the House. The Democrats made a net gain of 40 seats at the 2018 midterms after which the House impeached Trump twice.

So the president and his Maga coalition are well aware of how important it is to retain control of Congress.

The president is already taking steps that could tilt the midterms in his favour. Shortly after being sworn in as president in January 2025, he rescinded Joe Biden’s executive order that aimed to expand voting access and voter registration.

In April Trump ordered the Department of Justice to launch an investigation into the Democrats’ top fundraising platform ActBlue, after allegations it had allowed illegal campaign donations. The Democrats denounced the move as “Donald Trump’s latest front in his campaign to stamp out all political, electoral and ideological opposition”.

In August, Trump announced he wanted to ban mail-in-voting for the midterms. Three in every ten ballots cast in 2024 were mail-ins and are historically thought to favour the Democrats. But the US constitution mandates that the states control their elections. Congress has the power to pass legislation banning mail-ins for federal elections, but it is thought unlikely that such a measure would pass the Senate.

History has shown that the party occupying the White House usually performs poorly in the subsequent midterm elections. Three recent polls, Economist/YouGov, Morning Consult, and Emerson, show Democrats edging ahead in the generic congressional vote.

But precedent and political polling may count for little over the next year, as America’s democratic system is tested by extraordinary events and challenges.

Redistricting

There are already moves by mainly, though not exclusively, Republican controlled states to carve out additional congressional seats (referred to as redistricting) to bolster the party’s chances of retaining their majority in the House of Representatives. In three states – Texas, Missouri and North Carolina – Republican legislatures have redrawn constituency lines to the party’s electoral benefit, resulting in a notional seven new GOP-leaning congressional seats.

After the Republican-controlled North Carolina legislature voted through a new congressional map that may provide the party an additional seat in next year’s midterms, Trump posted on Truth Social that this provided the potential for “A HUGE VICTORY for our America First Agenda.”

Democrats have responded to these events by launching their own redistricting plans, with Virginia becoming the latest blue state to announce proposals to redraw electoral boundaries that could give the party two or three additional seats.

It is, however, the largest state in the union – California – which serves as the base for Democrats counterbalancing moves. California Governor Gavin Newsom is asking his state’s voters to decide on proposition 50. If passed this would authorise state lawmakers to create new electoral wards that could favour Democrats. Academic analysis has estimated that the move could provide up to five additional Democratic seats in Congress.

This action has been endorsed by former US president Barack Obama, who stated the Democrats strategy in California gives the national party a “chance… to create a level playing field” in next year’s elections.

Partisan gerrymandering is nothing new in US politics. But what is new, according to Benjamin Schneer, a Harvard-based expert in political representation, is the scale on which this is being done. He believes:

Gerrymandering can be done more effectively now because we have fine-grained data on the population and on how people are likely to vote, and computing techniques to design maps in clever ways. Put all that together with intense polarization and that creates a perfect storm where gerrymandering can flourish.

Voting rights

The 2026 midterms would also be affected in a seismic way by an impending Supreme Court decision relating to a central pillar of the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA). Section 2 of the act “prohibits voting practices or procedures that discriminate on the basis of race, colour, or membership in one of the language minority groups”. The court is now weighing whether Section 2 is constitutional.

The case relates to a lawsuit in Louisiana where it was required under the VRA to redraw its congressional map to ensure two majority black districts. This is now being challenged in the Supreme Court. If successful it could weaken the voting power of minorities and result in congressional districts being redrawn throughout the American south.

This would be a major blow for the Democrats. Analysis by the BBC projects that this could “flip more than a dozen seats from Democratic to Republican”. Findings from the Economist go further, suggesting “Republicans could eliminate as many as 19 Democrat-held districts in the House of Representatives, or 9% of the party’s current caucus.”

The 2026 midterms will be hugely consequential. They will decide what party controls the US Congress for Trump’s last two years in office and therefore the extent of his power until January 2029. They will also serve as the unofficial start of the 2028 presidential campaign and determine whether it is the Republicans or Democrats with the political momentum heading into this historic election.

Richard Hargy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 12 months out from the US midterms, both sides struggle to gain electoral advantage – https://theconversation.com/12-months-out-from-the-us-midterms-both-sides-struggle-to-gain-electoral-advantage-268126

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Edward White, PhD Candidate in Psychology, Kingston University

Climate change is reshaping weather patterns around the world, with monsoons, droughts, hurricanes and heatwaves all occurring with greater frequency and intensity. Aside from disturbing ecosystems, these environmental shifts risk triggering psychological reactions in people that can escalate into violent conflict.

The cognitive mechanisms that are triggered in people as a result of the effects of climate change share fundamental similarities with aggression in other settings. Consider two parallel scenarios. In the first, one person accidentally bumps into another person in a crowded bar. The bumped individual, already stressed from work woes, assumes malicious intent and retaliates violently.

In the second scenario, farmers in a water-scarce region notice their neighbours’ water well running normally while their own well runs dry. The farmers conclude that deliberate water theft has occurred rather than blaming geological differences in their ability to access the aquifer.

Both of these situations demonstrate what is known in psychology as “hostile attribution bias”, the tendency to interpret ambiguous actions as having been done with harmful intent. Forensic psychological research has recognised this bias as a factor in offending behaviour.

Wars and climate change are inextricably linked. Climate change can increase the likelihood of violent conflict by intensifying resource scarcity and displacement, while conflict itself accelerates environmental damage. This article is part of a series, War on climate, which explores the relationship between climate issues and global conflicts.

Environmental factors can intensify this cognitive tendency. When entire communities endure prolonged heatwaves and water shortages, this heightened strain can fuel perceptions that the survival strategies of other groups are deliberate acts of aggression. This can escalate tensions and increase the risk of conflict.

In Ethiopia and Kenya, even a modest drop in rainfall has been linked to more violent conflict breaking out between communities. This pattern has been repeated across sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia. Consecutive droughts in 1965 and 1966, for example, contributed to the widespread rural discontent that fuelled the Maoist insurgency in northern India. The insurgency remains active today.

This is not just a modern problem. In the 4th century, when much of Britain was ruled by the Romans, a series of droughts caused famine. Roman Britain descended into anarchy and, before long, Pict, Scotti and Saxon tribes were storming Hadrian’s Wall. The last Romans left Britain around 40 years later.

Mental fatigue

The prefrontal cortex is the part of a brain that is crucial for executive functions like making decisions and controlling behaviour. But, like a muscle, it can become exhausted. Research shows a link between poor self-control and offending behaviour, with a mentally fatigued person more likely to engage in violence.

Climate stress creates chronic cognitive load, in which people are having to think about too many things at the same time. Farmers calculating whether their crops will survive another heatwave, coastal communities planning evacuations, or city dwellers navigating heat-induced intrastructure failures are all operating with depleted mental resources. When a person’s mental energy is depleted, the psychological brakes that normally prevent offences begin to fail.

It is, of course, difficult to establish direct causal relationships between environmental factors and violence. Various other factors such as intelligence, socioeconomic status and demographics can also contribute.

However, some studies provide valuable insights by indicating possible trends and patterns. One study from South Korea found a correlation between rising temperatures from 1991 to 2020 and deaths by assault. The risk of assault deaths increased by 1.4% for every 1°C increase in ambient temperature.

Similarly, research in Finland from 2017 found that ambient temperature played a factor in violent crime rates, with a 1.7% increase per 1°C temperature rise. These findings together suggest that heat may erode the cognitive resources people need to regulate aggressive impulses, making hostile responses more likely when the capacity for self-control is compromised.

Recognising how the human mind works can guide people to make positive changes. Just like cognitive-behavioural therapy helps people spot and change harmful thinking patterns, we can collectively help communities become aware of the cognitive biases that may be worsened by climate change.

Taking measures that reduce the mental burden of climate stress can also help preserve the cognitive resources needed for peaceful resolution. This can be done through improved physical infrastructure, such as water storage and transfer facilities designed to distribute water to communities evenly.

Read more:
How water fuels conflict in Pakistan

It also includes implementing education programmes and financial mechanisms that can empower disadvantaged communities to negotiate resource access. In the Koshi River basin of eastern Nepal, for example, communities located downstream have funded activities that helped convince those upstream to share their water resources.

Recognising the role of upstream watershed areas in maintaining the quantity and quality of the water flow downstream, the municipal authority in the town of Dhankuta pays for the water services – treatment, storage and distribution – to the upstream watershed villages of Nibuwa and Tankhuwa. It has also pledged to invest in conserving the upstream ecosystem.

A key part of the intersection of climate change and conflict is how environmental stress systematically activates the psychological vulnerabilities that drive criminal behaviour. By understanding this connection, intervention can occur before rising temperatures trigger the cognitive cascade from stress to bias – and from there to violence.

Edward White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How climate change can make people more likely to get into violent conflict – https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-people-more-likely-to-get-into-violent-conflict-263078

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Madeline-Sophie Abbas, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Lancaster University

Thousands of women and children with perceived links to Isis have been detained in camps by the Kurdish-controlled Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria since the demise of the militant organisation in 2019. These include women and children who have a connection to the UK.

Since 2019, the UK has brought three women and 18 children from north-east Syria to the UK. Most of the repatriated children had been orphaned or arrived at camps without caregivers and were under ten years old.

There are also children in the camps who have never lived in the UK, but have a parent who is either a British citizen or former British citizen who has been deprived of their British citizenship. In total, an estimated 60 “UK-linked children” remain in these camps.

These children may not be formally recognised as British citizens due to a lack of documentation, or because they were born after their parents were deprived of their British citizenship. This can mean that the children sometimes don’t have citizenship of any country.

Under Section 40 of the British Nationality Act 1981, the home secretary has the power to remove a person’s British citizenship if they consider it “conducive to the public good”. These decisions generally apply to cases involving national security or counter-terrorism.

The aim is to prevent people perceived to pose a security threat from returning to the UK. From 2010 to 2023, there were 222 citizenship deprivation orders, including 104 in 2017 alone.

The UK government’s use of citizenship deprivation has meant UK-linked children cannot be repatriated with their mothers. These children largely remain trapped in detention camps in Syria with limited possibility for a healthy future.

Children as victims or threats?

To get UK-linked children out of the camps, the UK government needs to act. Key non-governmental organisations (NGOs) working on statelessness, repatriation and children’s rights argue allowing them to come to the UK is the only solution for protecting these children from their precarious and dangerous existence.

But the UK government is often reluctant to do that. “Isis-associated” children are often viewed as security threats rather than victims of violent conflict.

Age and agency are used to judge threat levels. The longer children stay in camps, the greater the security threat to the UK they are considered to pose, and the less likely they are to be allowed to come to the UK.

In situations where the child’s mother has been deprived of their UK citizenship, the child risks being separated from them in the event that the child is brought to the UK. Reprieve,
a legal action NGO, reports that the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office told at least five British families in Syria that their children could only be brought to the UK if the mothers remain in Syria.

This meant being separated from their children (affecting 12 children between two and 12 years old). Their mothers, who despite being in the camps have often not been formally accused of terrorism offences, should be allowed to return with them.

Mothers’ citizenship should be reinstated to allow children the opportunity to make this possible and uphold the right to family life in accordance with UK law through Article 8 of the Human Rights Act 1998 and international rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Counter-terrorism measures

A number of counter-terrorism measures are available if the government should choose to bring an Isis-linked child with their mother to the UK. For example, a temporary exclusion order (TEO) is a legal measure used by the UK government to disrupt terrorist risk by controlling the return of individuals associated with terrorism-related activities.

Using these orders would allow authorities to permit mothers to return to the UK with their children while assessing and mitigating possible security risks by imposing certain conditions. These might include deradicalisation programmes, police reporting requirements and monitoring.

However, TEOs are not available for people who have been deprived of their citizenship. This therefore obstructs one way in which a child could potentially come with their parent to the UK.

Questions also remain concerning whether adults who travelled to Isis-controlled territory when they were children should be treated in law as children. They may have been groomed or trafficked or regret their decision.

Recruitment and use of children in armed conflict violates international law. Children in these cases should be treated as victims deserving protection. Article 39 of the UN convention on the rights of the child (UNCRC) presses states to take measures to support the recovery and reintegration of child victims of conflict.

Not only that, the UK’s official independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, Jonathan Hall KC, argues citizenship deprivation potentially undermines UK national security. Former citizens are no longer monitored by the UK government. The previous government rejected Hall’s recommendation that TEOs be made available to those deprived of UK citizenship despite their lack of citizenship.

Citing the UK government’s returning families programme, Hall told me (in a research interview for as yet unpublished research) that repatriation for British families can be achieved through a combination of care and security measures.

Tavistock Returning Families Unit, funded by the Home Office, supports local authorities with British families and children returning from Syria. It coordinates the mental or emotional needs of the child and family following assessments. It offers an infrastructure for local authorities to help “Isis-associated” families to reintegrate into UK society.

Children might be separated from family members on their return to the UK if the child or caregiver is then prosecuted in the UK: residing in Isis-linked territory can now be considered a terrorist offence. Nonetheless, this provides a potential route for children to be integrated into UK society with their mothers that citizenship deprivation denies.

Without repatriation to the UK, mothers are at risk of indefinite detention within deadly camps and children risk becoming orphans.

Madeline-Sophie Abbas receives funding from UKRI – Policy Support grant

– ref. UK-linked children whose parents have been deprived of their citizenship are trapped in camps in Syria – https://theconversation.com/uk-linked-children-whose-parents-have-been-deprived-of-their-citizenship-are-trapped-in-camps-in-syria-253771

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ian Varley, Associate professor, Nottingham Trent University

For many older adults, staying active often means doing it alone. Walking, jogging or heading to the gym solo have long been the go-to activities for keeping fit. While these are great for physical health, they can lack that spark of competition and teamwork that makes sport so enjoyable. Unlike youth sports, where camaraderie, friendly rivalry and shared goals create excitement, older adults often miss out on that team spirit.

That may be changing. The rise of walking football is offering older adults a new way to stay active through competition, connection and fun.

In October 2025, the Walking Football World Nations Cup will take centre stage in Spain, showcasing the very best of this fast-growing sport. More than 70 teams from over 30 countries will compete across men’s (50s, 60s, 70s) and women’s (40s, 50s, 60s) categories, proving that age is no barrier to international competition.

The inaugural FA Walking Football Cup in 2024 and the expanding network of local clubs across the UK and Europe are helping to cement Walking Football’s place as a recognised and respected sporting format.

Walking football is a slower and low-impact version of traditional football, designed to make the game safer and more accessible for people of all ages and abilities. The rules are simple: no running, minimal physical contact and the ball must stay below head height. This encourages players to focus on skill, control, and enjoyment rather than speed or stamina. It is particularly appealing to older adults and those with health conditions who want to stay active in a structured, social and enjoyable way.

The benefits go well beyond physical fitness. Players often talk about how the game helps them stay active, build friendships and feel part of a community. Research has also shown that it supports healthy ageing by improving wellbeing, balance and social connection. However, some people have been hesitant to join, worried about the risk of injury, especially if they already have health conditions.

In response, new resources such as Uefa’s walking football toolkit and Age UK’s programme have encouraged further research into safety and participation. This growing body of evidence is helping to reassure players and highlight walking football as an accessible, enjoyable and health-promoting way to stay active in later life.

Injury risk

A 2025 study examined injuries during the 2024 FA Walking Football Cup, which featured 84 teams competing across women’s and mixed-gender categories. Across more than 850 hours of play, only 42 injuries were recorded, and most (81%) were minor, allowing players to continue without missing future games.

Injuries were evenly split between contact and non-contact causes, with most linked to tackles (45%). And 12% of all injuries came from running, which is technically against the rules.

A community-based study by the same researchers covered more than 6,300 hours of play and found similar results. Only around one-third of injuries led to missed training or matches. Importantly, both studies also looked at players with existing health conditions and found that only 7%-10% of injuries were related to underlying issues such as joint pain, cardiovascular conditions, or old musculoskeletal problems. This suggests that walking football is unlikely to worsen existing health concerns and can be considered a safe and low-impact way for older adults to enjoy team-based exercise.

Walking football may be redefining what it means to stay active in later life. It gives older adults the chance to experience teamwork, friendly competition, and community through a slower, safer version of the world’s favourite game. With its low injury risk and inclusivity for people with pre-existing health conditions, it offers a welcoming route to staying active and connected.

The upcoming Walking Football World Nations Cup in Spain will celebrate exactly that, showing how people of all ages can continue to enjoy the game, stay healthy and find friendship through sport.

Ian Varley receives funding from UEFA and the FA for projects related to injury and illness surveillance.

Philip Hennis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How walking football is helping older adults stay fit, connected and competitive – https://theconversation.com/how-walking-football-is-helping-older-adults-stay-fit-connected-and-competitive-268137

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura O’Flanagan, PhD Candidate, School of English, Dublin City University

Set in Paris, director Boris Lojkine’s latest film follows Souleymane (an astonishing turn from Abou Sangaré), seeking asylum in France as an immigrant from Guinea. Through Souleymane’s eyes, Paris becomes a gritty, unforgiving landscape of danger, fragility and relentless bureaucracy.

First-time actor Sangaré won best actor in Un Certain Regard at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival, and the 2025 most promising actor César (the French equivalent of the Oscars) for the role. In the opening moments of the film, it becomes clear why.

The first scene follows Souleymane into a waiting room. Nervous and tense, he captures the audience’s attention with only a few gestures and fleeting expressions. Sangaré’s performance is raw yet remarkably restrained, suffused with the kind of vulnerability that makes it impossible to look away.

The story then jumps back to the days leading up to this moment, later revealed to be Souleymane’s interview with the French government department that deals with immigration.

Souleymane works as a bicycle delivery driver in the city. As he has yet to receive his work permit, he is forced to rent his driver’s app account from an acquaintance, Emmanuel (Emmanuel Yovanie), who demands a large portion of his earnings.

This arrangement becomes a constant source of tension. Each time the app requires a selfie to verify the driver’s identity, Souleymane must race to Emmanuel for this photo. What should be a simple act of work turns into a daily negotiation with technology, bureaucracy and fear. Through these moments, the film exposes just how precarious and punishing it is to earn a living without legal recognition.

Souleymane’s Story rejects the “good immigrant” trope, which can characterise immigrants as saintly and non-threatening. Instead, Souleymane is a complex, fully realised character.

In his bid for asylum, he fabricates elements of his story, an act that weighs heavily on him. Unaccustomed to deceit, he struggles to keep his story straight, his faltering memory exposing both his honesty and exhaustion. These moments are quietly devastating, revealing the emotional toll of having to shape your life into something acceptable to the system.

As Souleymane rushes through Parisian traffic, the camera is intimate and unrelenting. Every swerve and every near miss with traffic is filled with tension and exposes Souleymane’s vulnerability. Naturalistic performances, ambient sounds and muted light combine to create something wholly lived-in, almost documentary in texture.

While respected among his fellow asylum seekers and delivery drivers, again and again Souleymane is met with hostility from restaurant owners and customers. Through these encounters, the film lays bare the harsh unregulated world of gig-economy labour, where human value is reduced to speed, ratings and availability.

Despite its bleakness, this film has a striking vibrancy. Souleymane moves constantly through the city, across bridges, through underpasses, down crowded boulevards. Paris is a living, breathing, shifting presence, alternately beautiful and brutal. The rhythm of his movement gives the story its pulse, a visual and emotional energy which captures both the isolation and the momentum of survival.

With an unflinching portrayal of modern bureaucracy, Souleymane’s Story exposes how fragile life becomes when every decision that governs it is made by an algorithm or an overworked official.

When the delivery app locks him out, Souleymane calls the helpline to be told he will receive an email “in two days”. The voice on the phone tells him that she cannot tell him why. Later, in his asylum interview, the sound of the interviewer’s keyboard becomes its own symbol of bureaucracy, each keystroke a reminder that her typing will determine whether he is allowed to stay or forced to leave. The film raises the haunting question: how much suffering must one endure to be deemed worthy of safety?

This is a question which feels especially urgent in 2025, a year defined by deepening divides over migration, precarious work and belonging. Without ever turning didactic, the film captures the quiet devastation of those caught in the machinery of modern systems, making it both a personal tragedy and a mirror held up to the times. This is cinema that confronts: humane, politically astute and hauntingly real.

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Laura O’Flanagan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Souleymane’s Story: the quietly devastating tale of an immigrant worker’s struggles in Paris – https://theconversation.com/souleymanes-story-the-quietly-devastating-tale-of-an-immigrant-workers-struggles-in-paris-267566

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Fumihito Gotoh, Lecturer in East Asian Studies, University of Sheffield

Sanae Takaichi, a hardline conservative with nationalist views, was elected as Japan’s first ever female prime minister on October 21. Known as a protege of the assassinated former Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, she is assertive on defence, hawkish on China and is keen to bolster Japan’s regional role.

Experts say it’s possible that Takaichi will leverage her ties to Abe as she attempts to curry favour with the US president, Donald Trump. Ahead of Trump’s recent visit to Japan, where he met Takaichi for the first time, he described Abe as “one of my favourites”.

As part of a trade deal signed in July, Tokyo promised to invest US$550 billion (£413 billion) in the US in exchange for lower tariffs on Japanese goods. Takaichi reportedly wants Japan to have greater influence over these investments and to ensure they also benefit Japanese companies and contractors.

A key part of Takaichi’s leadership campaign was her pledge to revive Abe’s economic vision of high public spending and cheap borrowing, which became known as “Abenomics”. This economic programme was introduced in late 2012 as part of a strategy to counter China’s growing economic and political power.

The aim was to revitalise Japan’s stagnant economy through the “three arrows” of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. The first arrow saw Japan’s central bank implement extreme measures, such as low or negative short-term interest rates, to make it cheaper for consumers and companies to borrow money and spend.

Japan’s central bank also purchased financial assets, including equities and long-term government bonds, aggressively. The hope was that this would make the private sector expect a subsequent rise in the price of goods and services, encouraging more investment. And selling bonds to the central bank should give banks more money to lend.

Abe’s second arrow involved the government increasing its spending by funding infrastructure projects or offering financial incentives like tax breaks for companies. And the third arrow introduced labour market deregulation, corporate governance improvements and policies encouraging women’s participation in the workforce.

In some respects, Abenomics was a success. The programme quickly led to sharp rises in stock prices, while unemployment dropped from 4% in the first quarter of 2012 to 3.7% in 2013. However, it was also accompanied by various negative side effects.

These included ballooning public debt and a significant devaluation of the yen against other major currencies, which increased the cost of imported goods. The central bank’s low interest rate policy also allowed numerous poorly performing “zombie” firms to survive by reducing the cost of servicing their debt.

At the same time, Abenomics largely failed to improve domestic investment by private firms. Corporate managers remained pessimistic about Japan’s long-term economic outlook despite cheap borrowing opportunities, largely because of the country’s ageing society and depopulation.

Meanwhile, the rising profitability of large firms prompted them to make massive overseas investments. This contributed to a further hollowing-out of the Japanese economy by relocating domestic production and manufacturing jobs overseas.

‘Sanaenomics’

Takaichi’s economic vision is similar to Abenomics. It shares nationalist and anti-China undertones with Abe’s programme, and also involves structural reforms and the bold use of fiscal and monetary tools. But her brand, which has been called “Sanaenomics”, should be seen as building on Abe’s programme.

Abenomics placed particular emphasis on aggressive monetary easing. On the other hand, Takaichi’s approach tilts more towards the use of expansionary fiscal policy and large-scale investment.

Japan’s inflation rate is currently hovering around 2.7%, which is much higher than the rates seen under Abe. These are not conditions where a central bank would typically implement loose monetary policy.

A core part of Takaichi’s economic programme, which has earned praise from US treasury secretary Scott Bessent recently, is government investment in what she calls “crisis management”.

Here, she is referring to investment in sectors that are important for national security such as food, energy and defence, as well as strategic industries like semiconductors, AI and electric vehicle batteries. She has framed this investment as necessary to reduce Japan’s foreign dependence.

However, public investments alone cannot sustain continuous growth. The key question is whether such spending can stimulate larger private sector investments, which would subsequently boost the economy. This will require overcoming the longstanding risk adversity of Japan’s corporate and financial sectors.

One way to achieve this will be restoring cooperation between the public and private sectors. Japan’s rapid economic growth from the 1950s to 1970s was driven by public-private partnerships, which involved the government collaborating closely with private companies to finance and develop national strategic industries.

Such partnerships can shift certain risks, particularly regulatory and financial risks, to the public sector. This can make projects more financially viable for firms, encouraging them to invest more. The Japanese private sector has massive cash at hand, and whether these firms are willing to use it for domestic investments will decide the outcome of Sanaenomics.

There are several other risks associated with Sanaenomics. Among these are the fact that expansionary spending will add to Japan’s immense existing public debt.

Credit rating agencies currently view Japan’s sovereign creditworthiness as relatively stable, but this could change as domestic and international investors grow concerned about a deterioration in the country’s fiscal situation.

At the same time, the Takaichi administration’s nationalist stance could deteriorate Japan’s relationship with China, its largest trading partner. Takaichi has consistently framed China as a strategic threat, advocating for supply chains that bypass China during her tenure as Japan’s first minister of economic security.

To Trump’s delight, she has also now pledged to dramatically increase Japan’s defence spending. More friction with China will only act as a drag on the Japanese economy.

Fumihito Gotoh has received grants from the Japan Foundation Endowment Committee and the Great Britain Sasakawa Foundation.

– ref. Japan’s new leader revives Abe’s economic vision – with a twist – https://theconversation.com/japans-new-leader-revives-abes-economic-vision-with-a-twist-268055

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kaigan Carrie, PhD Candidate in Criminology, University of Westminster

The mistaken release of a sex offender who was set to be deported exposes the staffing pressures at the heart of Britain’s prisons crisis. A senior prison employee told the BBC that Hadush Kebatu’s accidental release was “down to a series of mistakes probably because staff are overworked and in short supply”.

Prison overcrowding has become a serious political and societal issue. But while prison places are increasing with the construction of new prisons, staffing is not keeping pace. In 2019 there were roughly 3.7 prisoners per officer, in 2022 there were 3.8 prisoners per officer and in 2025 there were 3.9 prisoners per officer.

Between August 2022 and August 2025 the prison population increased by more than 6,000 prisoners – yet the number of prison officers grew by only around 1,000.

The recruitment and retention challenge is not just about numbers, but about experience. In the year to June 2025, 2,823 prison officers left the service in England and Wales. Of those who left, 56% had less than three years’ service, while 24% had less than a year. Understanding why is crucial if expanded prison capacity is to be matched by sufficient staffing.

Fewer are joining than before too. Just 2,453 prison officers were appointed or promoted into the prison officer role in the same year – almost half the figure recorded the previous year. The prison and probation service notes “persistent recruitment and retention challenges” in parts of the country.

And even for those who stay, the demanding nature of the job is evident in the fact that mental ill health was the leading cause of prison officer absence in the year to June 2025. The pressures prison officers face are often intensified by the danger that can come with prison work.

A violent role

In September 2025, armed robber Elias Morgan was sentenced to a life term for murdering former prison officer Lenny Scott. The judge said this was a revenge killing, four years after Scott seized a mobile phone from Morgan’s cell. It is a stark reminder that prison officers can be killed simply for doing their job.

The Prison Officers’ Association, the union that represents prison officers, has described the environment in which they work as “one of the most hostile and violent in the world”.

Earlier this year, four prison officers at HMP Frankland, County Durham, were attacked by a prisoner with a knife and hot oil, with three being hospitalised. The prisoner has been charged with three counts of attempted murder.

These incidents sit within a wider pattern of violence against prison officers. In the 12 months to March 2025, 10,568 assaults on staff were recorded – a 7% increase from the previous year. This equates to 28 assaults on staff per day across the service.

Protecting prison officers is not only a matter of justice for them as individuals, but crucial for a safe and well-functioning prison system. High levels of violence can make recruitment and retention more difficult, leaving prisons struggling to find enough staff to safely manage a growing prison estate. Better support for officers in these challenging conditions is vital.

In response to the serious assault faced by staff in HMP Frankland, the government has rolled out 500 tasers and 10,000 stab vests for prison staff. While these measures may improve safety in some situations, they are not a remedy for prison violence.

One officer I interviewed described being stabbed in an attack that led to their medical retirement. Neither a vest nor a taser would have prevented this incident due to where they were stabbed. This highlights that, while protective equipment may help in certain situations of violence, the main causes of violence – including understaffing and overcrowding – remain unaddressed.

Charlie Taylor, the chief inspector of prisons, recently reported that over 60% of prisoners in London’s HMP Pentonville are in overcrowded cells, with the prison’s physical infrastructure “crumbling”. Building new prisons to meet rising demand will not address the fact that some of our Victorian prisons are simply not fit for purpose.

A lack of staff also has detrimental effects on prisoners. Taylor’s Pentonville inspection found that most prisoners were spending 22 hours a day in their cells with nothing to do. This reflects the lack of staff to run the regime effectively – a problem that new prisons alone won’t solve.

It’s known that working in a prison exposes people to high levels of PTSD, depression, stress and anxiety. Without enough officers to safely staff existing prisons, building more prisons will only increase the pressure on staff. Protecting prison staff and supporting their wellbeing is vital if the government is to expand the prison estate while ensuring that prisons are safely and effectively staffed. Without addressing these pressures, simply building more prisons risks creating a system that is larger, but no safer nor more effective.

Kaigan Carrie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Mistaken release of migrant sex offender was hardly surprising – prison officers are dangerously overstretched – https://theconversation.com/mistaken-release-of-migrant-sex-offender-was-hardly-surprising-prison-officers-are-dangerously-overstretched-266407