Bob Denard et les coups d’État en Afrique : anatomie d’un mercenariat en héritage

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Christophe Premat, Professor, Canadian and Cultural Studies, Stockholm University

Figure emblématique du mercenariat postcolonial, Bob Denard (de son vrai nom Gilbert Bourgeaud incarnait une forme d’interventionnisme clandestin qui a marqué l’histoire politique de plusieurs États africains, en particulier les Comores, où il fut impliqué dans plusieurs coups d’État entre les années 1970 et 1990. Alors que les productions audiovisuelles se multiplient à son sujet, il devient essentiel de replacer son action dans une longue histoire, celle des mercenaires en Afrique.

L’actualité récente, marquée par la présence d’Africa Corps (ex-groupe Wagner) dans certains pays africains, tend parfois à présenter le mercenariat étranger comme un phénomène nouveau sur le continent. Cette lecture est historiquement inexacte. Bien avant le groupe russe Wagner, l’Afrique a été un terrain d’intervention privilégié pour des mercenaires européens, souvent liés à des intérêts géopolitiques, économiques ou idéologiques issus de la guerre froide et des continuités postcoloniales.

De Bob Denard aux réseaux anglo-saxons actifs en Afrique australe, en passant par diverses sociétés militaires privées, le mercenariat s’inscrit dans une tradition ancienne d’externalisation de la violence armée. Africa Corps ne fait que réactualiser cette pratique sous des formes contemporaines.

En tant que spécialiste des théories postcoloniales et des relations France-Afrique, je reviens sur cette figure emblématique de la Guerre froide.

La méfiance envers les mercenaires

Dans Le Prince, Machiavel déconseille aux souverains de se reposer sur des mercenaires, les décrivant comme « désunis, ambitieux, infidèles ». Leur loyauté n’est jamais garantie, car elle dépend du salaire plutôt que d’un sentiment d’appartenance. Ces mises en garde trouvent une application singulière dans l’Afrique postcoloniale.

Après les indépendances, des États fragilisés ont eu recours à des combattants expérimentés issus des armées coloniales, tandis que des puissances extérieures utilisaient ces hommes pour défendre leurs intérêts sans s’engager officiellement. Bob Denard s’inscrit dans cette tradition en étant un mercenaire moderne mêlant idéologie anticommuniste, sens aigu du renseignement et art de la manœuvre discrète.

Un mercenariat géopolitique

Le Congo de la période post-sécession katangaise est l’un des premiers terrains où s’affirme Bob Denard. Il sert d’abord Moïse Tshombe, président autoproclamé de l’État sécessioniste du Katanga, qu’il accompagne dans ses tentatives de stabilisation du Katanga puis, plus tard, lors de son passage à la tête du gouvernement central. Cette expérience le place au cœur des affrontements politiques et militaires du Congo des années 1960.

Le film Mister Bob (2011) revient d’ailleurs sur cette phase fondatrice, montrant comment Denard navigue dans un environnement où se croisent ambitions congolaises, interventions étrangères et stratégies clandestines. Si Mobutu apparaît ensuite comme l’acteur dominant de la scène congolaise, Denard évolue davantage à sa périphérie qu’à ses côtés, prêt à servir des causes présentées comme anticommunistes et à répondre aux attentes d’acteurs extérieurs, notamment occidentaux.

Dans ce contexte de Guerre froide, Denard opère ainsi dans ces zones grises où se mêlent autorité étatique, diplomatie secrète et interventions paramilitaires. Son parcours congolais témoigne de la manière dont certains États externalisaient des opérations sensibles à des individus capables d’agir là où l’armée nationale ou les services officiels ne pouvaient intervenir ouvertement.

À bien des égards, Denard a donné corps aux logiques de la Françafrique, non seulement par ses engagements militaires, mais aussi par les relations qu’il entretenait avec Jacques Foccart, l’un des architectes les plus influents de ce système d’influence mêlant réseaux politiques, intérêts stratégiques et action clandestine.

Les Comores, une histoire politique sous tutelle mercenaire

C’est pourtant aux Comores que Denard inscrit durablement son empreinte.
Lorsque les Comores accèdent à l’indépendance en 1975, l’archipel devient le théâtre d’un jeu d’ombres dont Bob Denard est l’un des principaux architectes. Profitant de la fragilité du nouveau régime, Denard renverse le président Ahmed Abdallah et installe à sa place Ali Soilih, un dirigeant aux ambitions révolutionnaires. Ce geste inaugure une période d’instabilité profonde, où la politique comorienne se tisse désormais aussi dans les couloirs discrets des mercenaires et des réseaux d’influence.

Trois ans plus tard, en 1978, l’histoire bascule de nouveau. Denard revient à Moroni pour renverser Soilih et rétablir Ahmed Abdallah au pouvoir. L’opération, exécutée avec une précision quasi militaire, consacre le mercenaire comme un véritable arbitre de la scène politique comorienne. À travers lui, des intérêts extérieurs, diplomatiques, économiques, sécuritaires, continuent de peser sur les trajectoires du jeune État.

En 1989 survient l’épisode le plus trouble car le président Abdallah est assassiné dans son palais. Denard, présent sur place, est rapidement soupçonné d’implication. Bien qu’il soit acquitté par la justice française, l’affaire renforce l’image d’un mercenaire devenu trop puissant, capable d’infléchir le destin d’un pays au-delà de tout contrôle institutionnel.

L’histoire se clôt en 1995 avec l’opération Azalée. Cette intervention militaire française expulse Denard et son groupe, mettant fin à vingt ans d’influence directe sur la vie politique comorienne. Pour Paris, il s’agit de reprendre la main ; pour Moroni, d’entrevoir la possibilité de reconstruire un système politique affranchi de cette tutelle informelle.

Les documentaires consacrés aux Comores reviennent largement sur ces décennies d’ingérence. Ils montrent comment les interventions successives ont contribué à militariser la vie politique, à institutionnaliser une dépendance à des réseaux extérieurs et à fragiliser durablement les structures étatiques d’un archipel déjà vulnérable. Derrière l’aventure exotique souvent associée au personnage de Denard se lit en creux le long coût politique, social et institutionnel de ce mercenariat d’État dans un micro-État postcolonial.

Bob Denard à l’écran

Si la figure de Bob Denard continue de hanter l’imaginaire collectif, c’est en grande partie grâce à son traitement audiovisuel, qui a façonné deux portraits presque opposés du mercenaire. D’un côté, le film de 2011 choisit de raconter l’homme à travers sa relation privilégiée avec Mobutu. On y découvre un Denard présenté comme un officier de l’ombre, naviguant entre fidélités personnelles et logiques d’État, un personnage à la fois tacticien, confident et instrument discret de stratégies géopolitiques plus vastes. La mise en scène insiste sur la densité politique de ses engagements, presque sur son expertise, donnant au mercenaire une profondeur qui dépasse le simple aventurier.

Mais l’autre versant du récit apparaît dans les nombreux documentaires consacrés aux Comores. Là, le ton change radicalement. Les enquêtes, nourries de témoignages comoriens, dressent un portrait moins flatteur, celui d’un entrepreneur de violence dont les interventions successives ont contribué à redessiner le destin politique d’un micro-État vulnérable. Ces documentaires tout comme la bande dessinée qui lui est consacrée montrent un Denard beaucoup moins romanesque, davantage stratège et parfois manipulateur, révélant les effets tangibles de ses opérations sur les populations locales, les institutions et la vie quotidienne des Comoriens.

Un révélateur de l’histoire postcoloniale

La trajectoire de Denard est indissociable des ambiguïtés de la période post-indépendance avec les fragilités institutionnelles des jeunes États, la compétition d’intérêts étrangers et l’absence de régulation du recours à la force privée.

Bien avant l’émergence des sociétés militaires privées contemporaines, Denard expérimente des formes d’externalisation de la violence où s’entremêlent réseaux politiques, services de renseignement et initiatives personnelles. Son parcours éclaire aussi les relations franco-africaines dans ce qu’elles ont parfois eu de plus opaque.

Une histoire longue de la violence privatisée

L’histoire de Bob Denard dépasse largement son personnage : elle révèle les vulnérabilités structurelles d’États en quête de stabilité, les pratiques d’ingérence discrète durant la Guerre froide et l’ambivalence d’un mercenaire oscillant entre instrument de puissance et acteur autonome.

Aujourd’hui, alors que des groupes comme Wagner ont redéfini la présence d’acteurs armés privés en Afrique, la figure de Denard retrouve une actualité inattendue. Si la comparaison ne doit pas être simplifiée – Wagner étant un dispositif paramilitaire industrialisé, intégré à une stratégie géopolitique étatique, là où Denard incarnait un mercenariat plus limité reposant sur des réseaux personnels –, une filiation structurelle apparaît néanmoins.

Denard a préfiguré un monde où la violence peut être privatisée, externalisée hors du contrôle direct des États, mais toujours au service d’intérêts politiques. Wagner en est aujourd’hui la version amplifiée : un acteur capable d’occuper un territoire, d’exploiter des ressources et d’influencer durablement des régimes.

De Denard à Prigojine, de Moroni à Bangui, n’assiste-t-on pas à l’évolution d’un même modèle d’ingérence armée ? Un modèle où les mises en garde de Machiavel résonnent encore. Aucun État ne peut se reposer durablement sur des forces dont la loyauté se loue.

The Conversation

Christophe Premat est directeur du centre d’études canadiennes et professeur en études culturelles francophones à l’Université de Stockholm. Il a bénéficié d’une subvention de la Fondation suédoise pour la coopération internationale dans la recherche et l’enseignement supérieur (STINT) pour la période de février 2021 à décembre 2023 (numéro de subvention : AF 2020-8901) sur un projet concernant la circulation des littératures maghrébines francophones.

ref. Bob Denard et les coups d’État en Afrique : anatomie d’un mercenariat en héritage – https://theconversation.com/bob-denard-et-les-coups-detat-en-afrique-anatomie-dun-mercenariat-en-heritage-271534

Un fidèle de Trump à la tête de la Fed ? Les marchés financiers s’inquiètent

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Alain Naef, Assistant Professor, Economics, ESSEC

Donald Trump est en guerre affichée contre Jerome Powell, le président de la Réserve fédérale (Fed), la banque centrale des États-Unis. Misscabul/Shutterstock

Une enquête pénale vise Jerome Powell, l’actuel gouverneur de la puissante Réserve fédérale des États-Unis (Fed), dont le mandat arrive à terme en mai 2026. Donald Trump, dont la prérogative est de lui nommer un successeur, souhaite mettre à la tête de la Fed un de ses supporters, Kevin Hassett. Mais alors qui pour être le contre-pouvoir ? Contre-intuitivement, ce pourrait bel et bien être les marchés financiers.


Mervyn King, gouverneur de la Banque d’Angleterre de 2003 à 2013, aimait dire que « l’ambition de la Banque d’Angleterre est d’être ennuyeuse ». Le président de la Banque nationale suisse Thomas Jordan rappelait encore récemment que « la clé du succès est peut-être d’être ennuyeux ». Leur message est clair : la stabilité monétaire repose sur la prévisibilité, pas sur le spectacle.

Avec Donald Trump, cette règle pourrait changer. Le président des États-Unis, lui, n’aime pas être ennuyeux. S’il n’est pas clair que cela lui réussisse en politique intérieure ou extérieure, pour ce qui est de l’économie, c’est différent. La prévisibilité est un moteur de la stabilité des marchés et de la croissance des investissements. Dans ce contexte, les marchés pourraient être l’institution qui lui tient tête.

C’est ce rôle de contre-pouvoir que j’analyse dans cet article. Le conflit à venir se porte sur la nomination du successeur du président de la Réserve fédérale des États-Unis (Fed), la banque centrale des États-Unis, Jerome Powell dont le mandat expire en mai 2026. Dans la loi, le président de la première puissance mondiale a la prérogative de nommer un successeur.

Jerome Powell est actuellement visé par une enquête pénale du département de la justice américain, liée officiellement à la rénovation du siège de la Fed. Le président de la FED, lui, y voit une tentative de pression sur son indépendance, après son refus de baisser les taux d’intérêt. Donald Trump nie toute implication, même s’il dit de Powell qu’il « n’est pas très doué pour construire des bâtiments ». Pour de nombreux observateurs, le timing de l’attaque plaide pour une attaque politique. Les marchés ont réagi avec une montée du prix de l’or.

Car les présidents des banques centrales sont des personnages clés. Avec de simples mots, ils peuvent participer à créer des crises financières. Le président de la Bundesbank eut un rôle dans la crise du système monétaire européen de 1992. Si ce dernier s’était abstenu de faire un commentaire sur l’instabilité de la livre sterling, le Royaume-Uni aurait peut-être rejoint l’euro.

Gouverneurs technocrates

Traditionnellement, le choix du successeur n’est pas uniquement politique. Il se porte sur une figure reconnue, souvent issue du Conseil des gouverneurs. Les sept membres du Conseil des gouverneurs du système de la Réserve fédérale sont nommés par le président et confirmés par le Sénat. Il s’agit ordinairement de technocrates.

Les chercheurs Michael Bordo et Klodiana Istrefi montrent que la banque centrale recrute prioritairement des économistes formés dans le monde académique, soulignant la sélection d’experts de la conduite de la politique monétaire. Ils montrent que les clivages entre écoles « saltwater » (Harvard et Berkeley) et « freshwater » (Chicago, Minnesota). Les économistes freshwater étant plus restrictifs (ou hawkish) en termes de baisse de taux, alors que les « saltwater » préfèrent soutenir la croissance.

Ben Bernanke incarne cette tendance. Du 1er février 2006 au 3 février 2014, il est gouverneur de la FED. Après un premier mandat sous la présidente de George W. Bush, Barack Obama le nomme pour un second mandat. Ce professeur d’économie, défenseur de la nouvelle économie keynésienne, gagne le prix Nobel en 2022 pour ses travaux sur les banques et les crises financières. La gouverneure de 2014 à 2018, Janet Yellen, est auparavant professeure d’économie à Berkeley, à Harvard et à la London School of Economics.

Ce processus relativement apolitique est essentiellement technocratique. Ces conventions seront potentiellement bousculées pour la nomination du prochain gouverneur de la banque centrale des États-Unis. Évidemment, certains gouverneurs avaient des préférences politiques ou des liens avec le président.

Kevin Hassett, économiste controversé

Le candidat de Donald Trump pressenti par les médias est Kevin Hassett. Ce dernier s’inscrit dans le sillage de la vision du nouveau président des États-Unis en appelant à des baisses de taux brutales. Il a qualifié Jerome Powell de « mule têtue », ce qui alimente les craintes d’une Fed docile envers la Maison Blanche.

« Kevin Hassett a largement les capacités pour diriger la Fed, la seule question est de savoir lequel se présentera » entre « Kevin Hassett, acteur engagé de l’administration Trump, ou Kevin Hassett, économiste indépendant », explique Claudia Sahm, ancienne économiste de la Fed dans le Financial Times. C’est cette question qui inquiète les marchés. Cela même si l’économiste a presque 10 000 citations pour ses articles scientifiques et a soutenu sa thèse avec Alan Auerbach, un économiste reconnu qui travaille sur les effets des taxes sur l’investissement des entreprises. De façade, Hassett a tout d’un économiste sérieux. Uniquement de façade ?

Les investisseurs s’inquiètent de la politisation de la Fed. Depuis la nomination de Stephen Miran en septembre 2025 au Conseil des gouverneurs, les choses se sont pimentées. Le président du comité des conseillers économiques des États-Unis est un des piliers de la doctrine économique Trump. Il a longtemps travaillé dans le secteur privé, notamment au fonds d’investissement Hudson Bay Capital Management.

Si les votes de la Fed sont anonymes, le Federal Open Market Committee, chargé du contrôle de toutes les opérations d’open market aux États-Unis, publie un graphique soulignant les anticipations de taux d’intérêt des membres. Depuis l’élection de Stephen Miran, un membre vote en permanence pour des baisses drastiques des taux d’intérêt, pour soutenir Donald Trump. Sûrement Miran ?

Si le nouveau président de la Fed faisait la même chose, on pourrait assister à une panique à bord… qui pourrait éroder la confiance dans le dollar. Les investisseurs internationaux ne veulent pas d’une monnaie qui gagne ou perde de la valeur en fonction du cycle électoral américain. Pour que les investisseurs aient confiance dans le dollar, il faut qu’il soit inflexible à la politique.

Les marchés financiers en garde-fou

Le marché, à l’inverse de la Cour suprême des États-Unis ou du Sénat, n’a pas d’incarnation institutionnelle, mais il a tout de même une voix. Il réagit par les prix, mais pas seulement. Si on ne l’écoute pas, le marché pourrait-il hausser le ton, en changeant les prix et les taux d’intérêt ?

Quelles seraient les conséquences de la nomination d’un président de la Fed pro-Trump et favorable à des coupes de taux pour soutenir le mandat de Trump ? Il se peut que les investisseurs institutionnels puissent fuir la dette américaine, du moins à court terme. Cette réaction augmenterait potentiellement les taux d’emprunt du gouvernement, notamment à long terme.

« Personne ne veut revivre un épisode à la Truss », a résumé un investisseur cité par le Financial Times, à la suite de la consultation du Trésor auprès des grands investisseurs. Liz Truss, la première ministre du Royaume-Uni, avait démissionné sous la pression des marchés en septembre 2022. Elle avait essayé dans un « mini-budget » à la fois d’augmenter les dépenses et de réduire les impôts. Quarante-quatre jours plus tard, elle avait dû démissionner à cause de la fuite des investisseurs qui ne voulaient plus de dette anglaise, jugée insoutenable.

Donald Trump ne démissionnera probablement pas quarante-quatre jours après la nomination de Kevin Hassett. Mais, en cas de panique des marchés, Kevin Hassett lui-même pourrait sauter. Et le dollar perdre encore un peu plus de sa splendide.

The Conversation

Alain Naef a reçu des financements de l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR).

ref. Un fidèle de Trump à la tête de la Fed ? Les marchés financiers s’inquiètent – https://theconversation.com/un-fidele-de-trump-a-la-tete-de-la-fed-les-marches-financiers-sinquietent-272522

DOJ criminal probe highlights risk of Fed losing independence – a central bank scholar explains what’s at stake

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Cristina Bodea, Professor of Political Science, Michigan State University

U.S. President Donald Trump with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on July 24, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

The Department of Justice’s decision to open a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has reignited concern over the independence of the central bank.

In unusually blunt remarks, Powell described the unprecedented probe as part of a political attack by the White House over the Fed’s refusal to drastically cut interest rates, as President Donald Trump has long advocated.

But how unique are such apparent attempts to undermine the central bank’s authority? And what would be the consequences of chipping away at Fed independence? To understand what’s at stake, The Conversation turned to Cristina Bodea, a Michigan State University professor who has been studying central bank best practices for more than two decades.

How unique is this moment in American history?

It is unique in the sense that we haven’t seen a Fed chair criminally investigated ever.

But if we go back in history to the Nixon and Reagan years, presidents have put a lot of pressure on Fed chairs when economic conditions were bad – more precisely, there was high unemployment and high inflation.

In more recent history, Fed chairs and the U.S. Federal Reserve have enjoyed bipartisan support in being independent.

Why are central banks independent, and what is at stake?

Independence comes in two forms: legal and in practice. In the recent past, the laws governing central banks have tended to favor an arms-length relationship in which experts in these institutions look at the economic data and make interest rate decisions based on their mandate. If their mandate includes low inflation, they’re supposed to adjust interest rates based on their data so that they can achieve their goal in the medium term.

Legal independence means that the law governing the institution allows them to do this without politicians interfering in day-to-day operations. This does not mean that the institution is not accountable. The Fed is accountable to Congress, and the people who run the Fed are appointed by the president and voted on by the Senate

Then, there is the de facto independence. Because laws are debatable, what happens in practice can differ from the law, and there isn’t an application of the law to each and every instance in which an institution makes a decision.

In the past 30 years, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been more independent than the law suggests because there was a clear bipartisan consensus to not politicize the institution so that it could safeguard the country’s price environment and employment outcomes, without taking into account elections, electoral cycles and who is or isn’t in the White House.

Why do politicians seek to interfere with this independence?

Monetary policy is a fairly powerful tool, meaning that it can have fairly large and quick effects on outcomes. So, politicians would like to use it; the short-term political gains might include cheaper credit and somewhat more employment.

But it’s kind of a double-edged sword because politicians cannot fool people repeatedly. Along with people expecting politicians to use and misuse monetary policy comes inflation as well as an expectation of inflation. If people expect inflation rates to increase, they will adjust their expectations, and employment will only increase if your inflation expectations are stable.

It makes very little sense to put pressure on the Fed in the way that the current administration is – like a full-on assault, an attempt to take over the institution. The institution is useful. If you have an institution that is not a credible inflation fighter, it will actually not be able to stabilize employment either.

What are the stakes here for the American consumer?

The concern is inflation. Currently, data is ambiguous about the right monetary policy, and there are debates within the Fed about the right course of action. But there is no full-blown financial crisis or unemployment crisis.

Interest rates should not be lowered by 3 percentage points under these circumstances, as Trump has urged. Fairly drastic measures should be reserved for fairly drastic circumstances, and I don’t think we are in fairly drastic circumstances. If low interest rates are employed at this moment, you’re basically using all your ammunition on a moment that doesn’t seem to warrant using it.

We are at an uncertain juncture: There are risks to employment, tariffs can further damage the labor market, there is an affordability crisis. There could be an actual financial crisis in the future.

Lowering interest rates now would make the Fed’s interest rate instrument incapable of working should there be a true crisis in the near future.

A screen shows men and a caption above other men working
Traders digest news of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments over a criminal investigation.
AP Photo/Richard Drew

Have we seen the independence of central banks under attack in other countries, or is this uniquely American?

This is not uniquely American, and has happened in countries like Turkey, Venezuela and Argentina. Central bank independence globally has been under attack, but not in democracies or in countries that claim to have strong institutions and rule of law.

The Conversation

Cristina Bodea does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. DOJ criminal probe highlights risk of Fed losing independence – a central bank scholar explains what’s at stake – https://theconversation.com/doj-criminal-probe-highlights-risk-of-fed-losing-independence-a-central-bank-scholar-explains-whats-at-stake-273314

Santé mentale des adolescents : les réseaux sociaux amplifient les troubles observés hors ligne, en particulier chez les filles

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Olivia Roth-Delgado, Cheffe de projets scientifiques, Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l’alimentation, de l’environnement et du travail (Anses)

Troubles anxiodépressifs et pensées suicidaires, cyberharcèlement, image de soi dégradée, consommation d’alcool, de cannabis et autres substances psychoactives… les réseaux sociaux exploitent les vulnérabilités des jeunes et contribuent ainsi à amplifier certains troubles dont ces derniers sont victimes.

C’est ce que conclut un rapport d’envergure de l’Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire (Anses) qui décortique les mécanismes d’action de ces outils numériques paramétrés pour cibler à des fins mercantiles les spécificités mais aussi les fragilités liées à l’adolescence.

Olivia Roth-Delgado et Thomas Bayeux font partie de l’équipe de l’Anses qui a coordonné ces travaux. Ils nous présentent les principaux enseignements de ce rapport.


The Conversation : Le rapport de l’Anses relatif aux « effets de l’usage des réseaux sociaux numériques sur la santé des adolescents » est inédit. Pourquoi ?

Olivia Roth-Delgado : Cette expertise, c’est cinq ans de travail et plus de 1 000 articles analysés. Elle est inédite par son originalité et par son ampleur qui sont sans équivalent, à notre connaissance, pour des instances publiques comme l’Anses.

Pour la première fois, ce sont certains mécanismes de conception des réseaux sociaux qui ont été mis en relation avec des effets sur la santé des adolescents. Ces mécanismes, ce sont les dark patterns en anglais – que nous avons traduits par « interfaces trompeuses ».

L’adolescence est une période de vulnérabilité, car le cerveau est encore en maturation. Les adolescents et adolescentes traversent des changements dans la façon dont ils ressentent et gèrent les émotions, et dans les circuits liés à la récompense. Ils sont aussi plus sensibles au contexte social, ce qui peut favoriser des conduites à risque lorsqu’ils sont entourés de leurs pairs. Et c’est également une période de grande vulnérabilité aux troubles psychiques.

Thomas Bayeux : Se développe, durant l’adolescence, une culture qui invite à se confronter à autrui, une appétence pour la communication, une construction de soi qui conduit à tester les normes, etc. Tous ces arguments nous ont amenés à retenir la tranche d’âge 11-17 ans, lors de laquelle s’opèrent tous ces changements.

Le rôle de l’Anses, en tant qu’agence de santé publique, est d’évaluer les risques pour la santé. Toutefois, dans les chapitres du rapport consacrés aux usages et au maintien des relations entre générations, l’expertise évoque les effets bénéfiques potentiels des réseaux sociaux, à travers les motivations qui poussent à les utiliser durant l’adolescence.

Le rapport évoque des effets particulièrement préoccupants en lien avec l’usage des réseaux sociaux à l’adolescence, comme des troubles anxiodépressifs, des pensées suicidaires ou encore de l’automutilation. Quels sont les mécanismes à l’œuvre ?

O. R.-D. : Parmi les mécanismes que nous avons mis en exergue et étudiés, figurent ces interfaces trompeuses (ou manipulatrices) ainsi que les algorithmes de personnalisation de contenus. Tous correspondent à des mécanismes de captation de l’attention qui retiennent les utilisatrices et utilisateurs sur le réseau social, en leur présentant des contenus de plus en plus ciblés, voire extrêmes.

Si un ou une adolescente a, par exemple, recherché une première fois du contenu sur l’automutilation, ce type de contenus va lui être présenté de manière répétée et peut l’enfermer dans une spirale de difficultés.

T. B. : La captation de l’attention sert le modèle économique sur lequel reposent ces plateformes numériques. Cela leur permet de disposer d’un nombre important de données et de les monétiser et concourt également à la vente d’espaces publicitaires.

Les plateformes numériques ont donc intérêt à ce que les personnes restent sur le réseau social grâce aux deux stratégies que nous avons évoquées : d’une part, la personnalisation des contenus au travers d’algorithmes de plus en plus performants qui enferment celles et ceux qui les utilisent dans une boucle d’informations et, d’autre part, via la mise en avant des contenus les plus impactants.

Les interfaces trompeuses (dark patterns) mobilisent des techniques que nous connaissons tous : les likes, les notifications, le scroll infini, les vidéos qui s’enchaînent de manière automatique, etc.

La période de l’adolescence entre en forte résonance avec ces stratégies mises en place par les réseaux sociaux. À l’Anses, nous voyons là des enjeux majeurs en matière de santé publique, car une offre et une demande se rencontrent en quelque sorte. Et le cocktail peut se révéler détonnant !

Concernant ces troubles liés à la santé mentale, mais aussi le harcèlement, la consommation d’alcool, de tabac, de cannabis et d’autres comportements à risque contre lesquels vous alertez, est-ce à dire que les réseaux sociaux amplifient des phénomènes préexistants ?

O. R.-D. : Tout à fait. Les réseaux sociaux sont un espace social. Ils agissent comme une caisse de résonance des problèmes présents dans la société, à l’image des stéréotypes de genre, de l’incitation à la prise de drogues, etc.

T. B. : Les réseaux sociaux participent à la socialisation et à la construction adolescente, ils constituent une continuité du monde hors ligne, avec ses points positifs et ses travers. Il n’existe pas de barrière étanche entre ce qui se passe hors ligne et sur les réseaux sociaux.

Les règles qui existent pour protéger les mineur·es dans la société devraient donc s’exercer également sur les réseaux sociaux ?

O. R.-D. : C’est le principe fondateur du Digital Services Act, le dispositif réglementaire européen qui vise à réguler les contenus en ligne des très grandes plateformes, selon la formule : « Ce qui est illégal hors ligne est illégal en ligne. »

T. B. : Cette préoccupation motive l’une des recommandations phares du rapport de l’Anses, à savoir que les moins de 18 ans ne puissent accéder qu’à des réseaux sociaux conçus et paramétrés pour protéger les mineurs. Notre propos n’est pas de les bannir. Mais des solutions techniques doivent être engagées pour que les réseaux sociaux soient des lieux sûrs pour les adolescents et adolescentes, et l’Anses insiste pour une responsabilisation des plateformes à cet égard.

Ensuite, pour un adolescent ou une adolescente, discuter de ses pratiques numériques avec autrui – ses pairs, ses parents, des membres du corps enseignant, des éducateurs… – peut se révéler vertueux. Cela ne dédouane pas les pouvoirs publics et les plateformes numériques d’adopter des stratégies à une échelle collective pour que les réseaux sociaux soient des espaces sûrs pour les adolescents et adolescentes.

Le rapport évoque des liens entre l’utilisation des réseaux sociaux et certains troubles, mais il n’établit pas de relation de causalité à proprement parler. Pourquoi ?

O. R.-D. : La question de la causalité reste compliquée. Nous nous appuyons sur une expertise très fournie et documentée. Notre méthodologie est solide, mais elle ne repose pas sur une méthode du poids des preuves. Néanmoins, nous montrons des associations robustes entre l’usage des réseaux sociaux et les troubles que nous avons évoqués et pour lesquelles nous mettons au jour les mécanismes sous-jacents de manière extrêmement pertinente.

Dans le cas du sommeil, par exemple, plusieurs mécanismes jouent. Quand les adolescents consultent les réseaux sociaux le soir avant de se coucher, la lumière bleue des écrans entraîne un retard d’endormissement, car elle stimule ce qu’on appelle un éveil cognitif, ce qui raccourcit la durée de leur sommeil. Or, les effets à long terme sur la santé physique et mentale d’un manque chronique de sommeil sont bien documentés. De plus, quand on consulte des réseaux sociaux, des stimuli émotionnels peuvent aussi empêcher de dormir. On le voit, il existe un faisceau de preuves. Mais les effets concrets des réseaux sociaux sur le sommeil d’un adolescent ou d’une adolescente dépendent aussi de ses usages.

De même, dans la survenue des troubles anxiodépressifs ou d’idées suicidaires, la nature des contenus proposés joue un rôle majeur. On doit également prendre en compte un effet bidirectionnel. Je m’explique : un adolescent ou une adolescente qui est déjà vulnérable psychologiquement aura tendance à consulter davantage les réseaux sociaux. L’algorithme de présentation de contenus va détecter cette fragilité émotionnelle et lui présenter des contenus chargés sur le plan émotionnel. Et c’est là qu’il ou elle va se retrouver enfermé·e dans une spirale délétère. Il est plus difficile d’affirmer une causalité en présence de boucles de rétroaction et d’effets bidirectionnels.

Enfin, sur l’altération de l’image de soi, nous disposons également d’un faisceau convaincant de preuves selon le même type de mécanismes fondés sur une exposition répétée à des contenus valorisant des femmes maigres et des hommes musclés.

Les filles apparaissent plus sensibles que les garçons aux effets négatifs des réseaux sociaux. Comment l’expliquer ?

T. B. : C’est l’un des enseignements majeurs de cette expertise. Les filles représentent clairement un groupe à risque sur les réseaux concernant tous les effets sur la santé, pas uniquement l’altération de l’image de soi. Elles sont plus présentes sur les réseaux sociaux que les garçons, y sont davantage harcelées, victimes de stéréotypes de genre, soumises à des pressions sociales… Les filles accordent également davantage d’importance à ce qu’il se passe sur les réseaux sociaux, aux commentaires qui y sont postés, etc.

Les communautés LGBTQIA+ représentent aussi un groupe à risque sur les réseaux sociaux. Elles sont notamment davantage victimes de cyberharcèlement dont découlent des risques, notamment en matière de santé mentale.

Le rapport de l’Anses relève le fait que le temps passé devant les réseaux sociaux n’est pas le seul critère à prendre en compte.

T. B. : Le temps d’utilisation constitue une mesure utile, mais qui ne suffit pas pour aborder pleinement le sujet. Le temps permet d’étudier certains enjeux de santé, comme la sédentarité, même si les outils numériques nomades se multiplient pour accéder aux réseaux sociaux. Quantifier la durée d’utilisation se révèle également précieux quand on parle d’expositions tardives susceptibles d’impacter le sommeil, par exemple.

En revanche, on sait aussi que la compréhension des usages est essentielle pour étudier certains effets sur la santé. Il est important de savoir ce qui est fait sur le réseau social : publier, liker, lire des commentaires, faire des retouches photos, par exemple, et quel engagement émotionnel est associé à ces pratiques. Il ne faut pas opposer les approches mais plutôt y voir une complémentarité.

Votre rapport s’appuie sur des travaux de recherche qui n’ont pas, ou peu, étudié l’impact des outils numériques les plus récents, comme TikTok ou les « compagnons IA ». Peut-on supposer que ces nouvelles technologies accroissent les risques pour la santé mentale des adolescentes et adolescents ?

O. R.-D. : L’expertise de l’Anses s’est appuyée sur plus d’un millier d’articles publiés majoritairement entre 2011 et 2021. Du fait du cumul entre le temps de la recherche et celui de l’expertise, nous avons été amenés à étudier des technologies qui ont effectivement évolué. Néanmoins, nous nous sommes basés sur un socle commun de mécanismes, comme les interfaces trompeuses (dark patterns) et les algorithmes de personnalisation de contenus, auxquels nous avons associé des effets sur la santé.

Donc nos conclusions comme nos recommandations peuvent s’étendre à des réseaux sociaux plus récents. En ce qui concerne l’intelligence artificielle et les « compagnons IA », l’Anses recommande que des expertises futures se penchent sur la question.

Dans vos recommandations, vous proposez d’associer les adolescentes et les adolescents aux programmes développés pour prévenir les risques.

O. R.-D. : L’Anses propose d’associer les jeunes eux-mêmes aux travaux, car ce sont eux qui connaissent leurs motivations à aller sur les réseaux sociaux, ce sont eux qui construisent et diffusent les nouvelles pratiques. Il nous paraît donc important de les inclure dans les dialogues et la construction des repères, avec les éducateurs et les parents. Ils seront plus enclins à respecter des règles qu’ils auront contribué à formuler. Parmi ses recommandations, l’Anses évoque également le fait de promouvoir des espaces de dialogue entre jeunes pour des retours d’expérience de ce qui leur arrive en ligne.

T. B. : Et encore une fois, nous rappelons que l’Anses ne recommande pas d’interdire les réseaux sociaux, mais de revoir en profondeur leur conception de manière à ce qu’ils ne nuisent pas à la santé des adolescents et les adolescentes.


Propos recueillis par Lionel Cavicchioli et Victoire N’Sondé.

The Conversation

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. Santé mentale des adolescents : les réseaux sociaux amplifient les troubles observés hors ligne, en particulier chez les filles – https://theconversation.com/sante-mentale-des-adolescents-les-reseaux-sociaux-amplifient-les-troubles-observes-hors-ligne-en-particulier-chez-les-filles-273116

Slanguage: The trouble with idioms — how they can leave even fluent English speakers behind

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Frank Boers, Professor of Applied Linguistics, Western University

Being a linguist — and someone who has tried to learn several languages (including English) in addition to my mother tongue (Flemish Dutch) — I have an annoying habit: instead of paying attention to what people are saying, I often get distracted by how they are saying it. The other day, this happened again in a meeting with colleagues.

I started writing down some of the expressions my colleagues were using to communicate their ideas that may be puzzling for users of English as a second or additional language.

In a span of about five minutes, I heard “it’s a no-brainer,” “to second something,” “being on the same page,” “to bring people up to speed,” “how you see fit,” “to table something” and “to have it out with someone.”

These are all expressions whose meanings do not follow straightforwardly from their lexical makeup — they’re called idioms by lexicologists.

Idioms are part of daily communication. But this anecdote also suggests that we take it for granted that such expressions are readily understood by members of the same community. However, when it comes to people who are new to said community, nothing could be further from the truth.


Learning a language is hard, but even native speakers get confused by pronunciation, connotations, definitions and etymology. The lexicon is constantly evolving, especially in the social media era, where new memes, catchphrases, slang, jargon and idioms are introduced at a rapid clip.
Slanguage, The Conversation Canada’s new series, dives into how language shapes the way we see the world and what it reveals about culture, power and belonging. Welcome to the wild and wonderful world of linguistics.


Idioms and the limits of language proficiency

Research conducted at the University of Birmingham several years ago revealed that international students for whom English is an additional language often misunderstand lecture content because they misinterpret their lecturers’ metaphorical phrases, including figurative idioms.

More recent research confirms that English idioms can remain elusive to second-language learners even if the expressions are intentionally embedded in transparent contexts.

One of my own recent studies, conducted with international students at Western University in Canada, also found that students incorrectly interpreted idioms and struggled to recall the actual meanings later on after being corrected.

This shows just how persistently confusing these expressions can be.

It’s worth mentioning that we’re talking about students who obtained high enough scores on standardized English proficiency tests to be admitted to English-medium universities. Knowledge of idioms appears to lag behind other facets of language.

When literal meanings get in the way

The challenge posed by idioms is not unique to English. All languages have large stocks of idioms, many of which second-language learners will find puzzling if the expressions do not have obvious counterparts in their mother tongue.

There are various obstacles to comprehending idioms, and recognizing these obstacles can help us empathize with those who are new to a community. For one thing, an idiom will inevitably be hard to understand if it includes a word that the learner does not know at all.

However, even if all the constituent words of an expression look familiar, the first meaning that comes to a learner’s mind can be misleading. For example, as a younger learner of English, I was convinced that the expression “to jump the gun” referred to an act of bravery because, to me, the phrase evoked an image of someone being held at gunpoint and who makes a sudden move to disarm an adversary.

I only realized that this idiom means “to act too soon” when I was told that the gun in this phrase does not allude to a firearm but to the pistol used to signal the start of a race.

I also used to think that to “follow suit” meant taking orders from someone in a position of authority because I thought “suit” alluded to business attire. Its actual meaning — “to do the same thing as someone else” — became clear only when I learned the other meaning of suit in card games such as bridge.

The idea that idioms prompt a literal interpretation may seem counter-intuitive to readers who have not learned a second language because we normally bypass such literal interpretations when we hear idioms in our first language. However, research suggests that second-language learners do tend to use literal meanings as they try to make sense of idioms.

Unfortunately, when language learners use a literal reading of an idiom to guess its figurative meaning, they are very often misled by ambiguous words. For example, they will almost inevitably misunderstand “limb” in the idiom “to go out on a limb” — meaning “to take a serious risk” — as a body part rather than a branch of a tree.

Recognizing the origin of an idiomatic expression can also be difficult because the domains of life from which certain idioms stem are not necessarily shared across cultures. For example, learners may struggle to understand English idioms derived from horse racing (“to win hands down”), golf (“par for the course”), rowing (“pull your weight”) and baseball (“cover your bases”), if these sports are uncommon in the communities in which they grew up.

A language’s stock of idioms provides a window into a community’s culture and history.

Same language, same idioms? Not exactly

Idiom repertoires vary across communities — whether defined regionally, demographically or otherwise — even when those communities share the same general language.

For example, if an Aussie were to criticize an anglophone Canadian for making a fuss by saying “you’re carrying on like a pork chop,” they may be lost in translation, even if there isn’t much of one. At least, linguistically that is.

Although people may have learned a handful of idioms in an English-language course taken in their home country, those particular idioms may not be the ones they will encounter later as international students or immigrants.

The moral is simple: be aware that expressions you consider perfectly transparent because you grew up with them may be puzzling to others. We need to have more empathy for people who are not yet familiar with the many hundreds of potentially confusing phrases that we use so spontaneously.

The Conversation

Frank Boers receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

ref. Slanguage: The trouble with idioms — how they can leave even fluent English speakers behind – https://theconversation.com/slanguage-the-trouble-with-idioms-how-they-can-leave-even-fluent-english-speakers-behind-271681

A Man on the Inside: Netflix comedy offers a timely defence of higher education

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Barbara K Seeber, Professor, English Language & Literature, Brock University

Season 2 of Netflix’s A Man on the Inside finds Charles Nieuwendyk, private investigator and retired engineering professor (played by Ted Danson), undercover at Wheeler College.

The mission: recover the college president’s laptop. This might not seem juicy, but said laptop contains sensitive information about a $400 million donation by a tech multibillionaire, Brad Vinick.

As someone who has lived and studied academic life, I find the series created by Michael Schur (also behind The Good Place starring Ted Danson, among other hit series) is both funny and uncomfortable because it hits close to home.

Budgets trimmed to the bone

The P.I. is thrilled by his university case, calling it something “I can really sink my teeth into.”

Wheeler College, founded in 1883, has seen better days. It is struggling financially and its leadership is unpopular. The board of trustees hired a president who trims department budgets to the bone, cuts student aid and embraces corporate sponsorship — as well as the bonus he receives with every major donation.

These measures are not enough. Enter Vinick.

‘A Man on the Inside’ Season 2 trailer.

Vinick’s secret plan — “Project Aurora” — is to fire half the professors, exclude faculty from decision-making and close what he considers “non-essential departments,” leaving “three tracks of study — biotechnology, economics and computer science to prepare young adults for life in the modern world.”

President Jack Beringer knows Vinick’s intentions but does not want anyone to know he knows. Faculty uprisings would not help his bid for a higher-paying university job in Dallas, where he ate the best steak ever.

Language of efficiency, innovation

Any campus stroll reveals that Wheeler’s “Pepsi T-Mobile Covered Garage brought to you by Sephora” (Episode 4) is only a slight exaggeration.

Vinick’s language of efficiency and innovation dominates in real life. Universities are run increasingly on a corporate model, as numerous studies have demonstrated, including my collaboration with Maggie Berg in our book The Slow Professor: Challenging the Culture of Speed in the Academy.

Budgets and programs are being slashed, and in the guise of economic necessity, principles of higher education are undermined.

Professors also satirized

While Beringer and Vinick are the villains of the piece, there are, of course, some digs at the professors. (I admit we are an easy target).

The musicologist, for example, will abandon any conversation mid-sentence when inspiration hits.

In Episode 4, we see the chair of the English department is a snob about books you can buy at airports.

However, the show resists indulging in nutty, overpaid professor stereotypes because it recognizes, in the words of Dr. Benjamin Cole, head of the English department, “these are not the best of times.” The show focuses on staff and faculty efforts in an era of budget cuts and attacks on what the billionaire investor calls “pointless subjects” like art history and philosophy.

Holly Bodgemark, the provost, is so overworked she swallows nicotine gum (“It works faster if it goes right to the stomach”) and mixes her own “Peptocoffee.”

The musicologist may be flaky, but she buys used instruments out of her own pocket for students who can’t afford them. Money is tight for students. Student Claire Chung works a dozen jobs to pay tuition and housing. “When do you sleep?” Nieuwendyk asks. “In class,” she replies.

Defending higher education

To defend higher education, the show calls in the big guns: Ozymandias, a sonnet by 19th- century Romantic writer Percy Bysshe Shelley. It’s mentioned in one of Cole’s lectures, where he recites some of its lines and comments on its continued relevance: “Money, fame, power do not last. But ideas … can endure.”

Two men in discussion on a bench.
Literature professor Dr. Cole tells his students: ‘ideas … can endure.’
(Netflix)

Published in 1818, Ozymandias speaks of a “traveller from an antique land.” The traveller comes across the remains of a sculpture with an inscription that reads:

“‘My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings,

Look on my Works ye Mighty, and despair!’”

The rest of the sculpture is a “colossal Wreck,” and the king’s boast has dwindled into unintentional irony.

Given that the show is American, the literary allusion might be a veiled reference to the No Kings protests.

Making sense of the present

The series seems to side with philosophers like Martha Nussbaum, who argues that a liberal arts education can help us make sense of the present and read it critically.

Vinick is a modern Ozymandias. He wants to be immortal, literally (he undergoes longevity treatments) and figuratively (he commissions oil portraits of himself). As the professor of fine arts notes in the first episode of Season 2: “Newsflash: the billionaire is a narcissist.”

Not to give away the mystery, but a crisis is averted. Wheeler is safe … for now. It might go under, but, as the provost says, “better to end on our own terms.”

And those terms are: education is not a business; it cannot be reduced to the delivery of quantifiable outcomes. The book What Are Universities For?, by Stefan Collini, professor emeritus of intellectual history and English literature, makes this case in a particularly compelling (and at times laugh-out-loud) way.

Higher education is a public good because it teaches critical thinking and civil debate and prepares engaged citizens.

Community

Good satire like A Man on the Inside points out the problems as well as possible remedies. Vinick mocks the notion of community, but the show values it above all because, without it, resistance is impossible. Wheeler College’s faculty and staff celebrate each other and band together across disciplinary divides.

In the words of the provost in the last episode of the season, they are committed to protecting “community and knowledge for the sake of knowledge.”

Schur’s comedy offers a timely defence of higher education and is notable for bridging the gap between academics and the general public.

The Conversation

Barbara K Seeber received a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Institutional Grant at Brock University.

ref. A Man on the Inside: Netflix comedy offers a timely defence of higher education – https://theconversation.com/a-man-on-the-inside-netflix-comedy-offers-a-timely-defence-of-higher-education-270934

Why America hasn’t become great again

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Robert Chernomas, Professor Of Economics, University of Manitoba

United States President Donald Trump and his MAGA base are often portrayed as a break from past political norms. While that is certainly true, it overlooks the long and predictable path that led to his rise.

The slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) became the movement’s rallying cry, tapping into a nostalgic vision of a past era of economic prosperity and social dominance and appealing to voters who feel left behind by demographic and economic change.

Trump is the predictable result of the deteriorating economic conditions in the U.S. since the 1980s and the political machinations that brought those economic conditions about. In our recent book Why America Didn’t Become Great Again, we explore how the U.S. has set itself on a path toward self-destruction.

The rise of corporate power

Book cover of Why America Didn't Become Great Again by Robert Chernomas and Ian Hudson.
‘Why America Didn’t Become Great Again’ by Robert Chernomas and Ian Hudson.
(Taylor & Francis)

In the 1970s, higher taxes and regulation, a growing “rights-conscious revolution” around the environment, gender and race, demand for rising wages and increasing foreign competition threatened corporate power. In response, American business embarked on what billionaire Warren Buffett described as “class warfare.”

To transfer wealth and power from the many to the few, institutions had to be organized, government policies reoriented and economists, journalists and politicians recruited, funded and promoted.

Corporate lobbying skyrocketed. In 1971, only 175 firms had registered lobbyists in Washington, D.C.,; by 1982, 2,445 did. The number of corporate political action committees (PACs) rose from fewer than 300 in 1976 to more than 1,200 by the mid-1980s.

Business lobbying organizations advocated for policies like corporate tax cuts, deregulation, free trade, anti-worker legislation and more permissive rules on corporate political donations. Between 1998 and 2022, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent US$1.8 billion on lobbying activities, making it the single largest spender in the nation.

The role of wealthy individuals

Individual business owners also chipped in. Figures like Charles and David Koch funded organizations that aligned with their desire to create a U.S. free from government regulation, taxation, redistribution or public services. During the 2016 election cycle, Koch-backed PACs spent just under US$900 million.

Many of these organizations, like the Tea Party, also helped put into the mainstream an evangelical creationism that distrusted science and expert opinion, supported a patriarchal animosity to women’s rights, opposed policies to further racial equality and expressed xenophobic opinions.

The flood of corporate money shifted the political centre, making Democrats more conservative. No progressive economic policy has been passed in the United States since the 1970, with the tepid exception of the Affordable Care Act, which is friendly to the health insurance industry.

The strategy proved remarkably successful. According to political scientists Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page, when wealthy Americans strongly support a policy, it’s about twice as likely to be adopted. But strong support from the middle class has “essentially no effect.”

How does this happen in a working democracy?

Business leaders cannot win elections on their own — they need allies. One particularly large group was easy to convince. Since the 1960s, no Democratic presidential candidate has won the majority of white voters.

Between the 1960-64 and 1968-72 election cycle, support for Democratic candidates among less-educated white voters fell from 55 to 35 per cent. With the exception of the 1992 and 1996 elections when their votes were more evenly split, this gap has held to the present day.

Although their share of the population is declining, less-educated white voters still made up just under 50 per cent of the electorate nationally in 2018. College-educated white voters have tended to split their votes more evenly or provide a small edge to Republicans.

If Democrats have branded themselves as the party of inclusion — of different races, genders, ethnicities and sexualities — the Republican Party has defended what they euphemistically term “traditional values.”

In a Faustian bargain to advance a pro-business agenda, the Republican Party successfully appealed to less-educated white voters, whose historical economic and social advantages have been diminishing. They earn less and die younger than they used to and their advantages over other groups in society are diminishing.

The Republican Party seized on this group’s discontent and actively channelled it against African Americans and immigrants. As early as the 1960s, the Republican’s Southern strategy promoted racism, successfully shifting white voters to their party and shifting the political spectrum to the right. That strategy continued through Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, the Tea Party and Trump.

Importantly, this shift in voting preferences occurred well before the advent of the so-called “Rust Belt.” According to Pew Research, manufacturing jobs peaked in 1979.

Faced with declining standards of living, less-educated white voters could have chosen solidarity with all other workers and forced concessions from the elite of the business community to make the lives of all working-class people better. Instead, they voted to maintain the relative advantage of being white.

Rising inequality

The redistribution of income and wealth was detrimental to most Americans. Between 1973 and 2000, the average income of the bottom 90 per cent of U.S. taxpayers fell by seven per cent. Incomes of the top one per cent rose by 148 per cent, the top 0.1 per cent by 343 per cent, and the top 0.01 per cent rose by 599 per cent.

If the income distribution had remained unchanged from the mid-1970s, by 2018, the median income would be 58 per cent higher ($21,000 more a year). The decline in profits was halted, but at the expense of working families. Stagnant wages, massive debt and ever longer working hours became their fate.

Income stagnation is not the only quality of life indicator that suffered. In 1980, life expectancy in the U.S. was about average for an affluent nation. By the 2020s, it dropped to the lowest among wealthy countries, even behind China or Chile, largely due to the stagnation of life expectancy for working-class people.

The paradox of “red state” support

Less-educated white voters have historically supported politicians (mainly Republicans) who support cutting taxes for the rich and cutting social programs that they significantly benefit from.

In 2023, the Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas vowed to get the “bureaucratic tyrants” of the federal government “out of your wallets.” Yet the numbers tell a different story.

In 2019, the federal government collected only half as much in taxes as it spent in the state, amounting to about US$5,500 per person in Arkansas. Similar patterns hold in many other regions.

Republican Kentucky is the largest destination of federal transfers, receiving US$14,000 per resident, approximately 30 per cent of its entire gross domestic product.

The electoral preferences of red states don’t result in good outcomes. States won by Trump in the 2016 presidential election had lower average scores (similar to Russia) on the American Human Development Index — which measures income, education and health — than states won by Democrats, which are similar to the Netherlands.

The modern Republican agenda

For decades, the alliance between less-educated white voters and business worked very well for business. Trump’s MAGA still delivers longstanding pro-business policies, from deregulation to antagonism to workers’ rights and massive tax cuts for the rich.

Today, however, the Republican Party now also promotes policies that business has long fostered, if not supported, including a distrust of facts and science, the ethnic cleansing of the labour force, racism, a vengeance for justice and a hodgepodge of crony, incompetent economic priorities and policies.

This combination has created a more unstable and unpredictable political, economic and social environment, leaving a significant majority of CEOs yearning for the stable Republican Party of a bygone era.

The Conversation

Robert Chernomas is a Professor of Economics at the University of Manitoba and a member of Elbows Up: A Practical Program for Canadian Sovereignty. I am not affiliated with a political party or industry association but I am politically active.

Ian Hudson receives funding from SSHRC.
Ian Hudson is a Research Associate for the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

ref. Why America hasn’t become great again – https://theconversation.com/why-america-hasnt-become-great-again-272778

Why Donald Trump is telling such obvious lies on the ICE Minneapolis killing

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jennifer Saul, Chair in Social and Political Philosophy of Language, University of Waterloo

By now, many of us have probably seen the video of a Minneapolis woman whose last words were a calm “It’s fine, dude; I’m not mad at you,” before she was shot three times in the head as she turned her car to drive away from an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent.

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Renee Good “violently, willfully, and viciously ran over the ICE Officer, who seems to have shot her in self defense.

Vice-President JD Vance declared “the reason this woman is dead is because she tried to ram somebody with her car… You have a woman who aimed her car at a law enforcement officer and pressed on the accelerator. Nobody debates that.”

These statements, and others that doubled down on them, were made even as videos showing they were clearly false were in wide circulation.

It’s puzzling. Why lie in a situation like this? Who can you hope to deceive, when evidence falsifying your statements is freely available?

Seeing is not believing?

Our work on authoritarian public discourse stresses that there are multiple answers to this question, partly because there are many different audiences of mass communication. We need to come to grips with the multiple functions of obvious falsehoods like these to understand why they are made so often and so prominently, and how they serve authoritarian leaders.

First, something that seems obvious to you can be credible to others. How? Because in an era of algorithmic news feeds, we are not all getting the same news. Those with a newsfeed of nothing but MAGA influencers are in a different epistemic bubble from other people.

And they may well be in an echo chamber, in which opposing voices are so discredited that when an alternative narrative reaches them, it’s immediately dismissed.

Millions of people may not have seen the videos of the incident at all, or may have seen versions with instructions on how to interpret the visuals: she’s not turning around, she’s backing up in preparation to ram into the shooter; she’s not calmly indicating that she isn’t a threat, she’s refusing to comply with orders.

Videos of police using force often have this dual nature: they can document and prove wrongdoing; but they can also be used to train citizens to see threats where there are none.

Footage of the last moments of Renee Good’s life. (The Canadian Press)

Authoritarian tactics

Some people will find the lies too obvious to be plausible attempts at deception. Yet bald-faced lies are important in strongman politics.

Authoritarians can display their power by asserting obvious falsehoods, showing that they cannot be held to account. They also play to their base by showing contempt for a shared enemy, while demanding displays of loyalty and compliance from underlings.

Officials are forced to engage in the humiliating ritual of repeating what we call compliance lies. Think here of White House press secretary Sean Spicer at the start of Trump’s first term, forced to defend absurd lies about Trump’s and Obama’s inauguration crowds.

At the time, this may have seemed merely buffoonish. What’s happened since illustrates how dangerous this can be as the subject of the lies has changed to matters concerning life and death.

Other people may simply become confused by obvious lies. The competing interpretations of the Minneapolis video are diametrically opposed. Once news sites and social media feeds are sufficiently populated by these opposing views, it can feel like an overwhelming task to discern what’s really true.

And exposing a lie still doesn’t end its influence. It is easier to create an opinion with a lie than to undo that opinion when the lie is debunked, something known to psychologists as the continued influence effect.

Filling social media feeds with falsehoods to create confusion is a crucial part of the strategy that Steve Bannon, a Republican strategist and former Trump adviser, called “flooding the zone with shit.” This can leave people unsure of who to trust, what to believe, or even what the issue really is.

‘Both sides’ reporting

Relatively savvy and good-faith entities can be used as instruments of this strategy. In the name of neutrality and balance, centrist news media can fall back on a “both sides” model that frames stories mainly in terms of what each side is saying.

When one side commits to obvious lies, this approach obligingly repeats those lies while outsourcing the fact-checking to the opposing side, as if it were merely a partisan dispute.




Read more:
Why Donald Trump is such a relentless bullshitter


These duelling narratives can then become the story. The strategy to lie shifts focus away from the shooting itself, in this incident, and onto the alleged controversy.

In other words, obvious lies aren’t necessarily failed lies. They can confuse, distract, excite and intimidate a range of audiences. They can also be believed, no matter how obviously false they seem.

To treat them as mere indications of shamelessness or incompetence on the part of the liar is to overlook the serious harm they can do and the appeal they have in authoritarian politics.

The Conversation

Jennifer Saul is a member of Democrats Abroad.

Tim Kenyon has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

ref. Why Donald Trump is telling such obvious lies on the ICE Minneapolis killing – https://theconversation.com/why-donald-trump-is-telling-such-obvious-lies-on-the-ice-minneapolis-killing-273200

Iran protests 2026: our surveys show Iranians agree more on regime change than what might come next

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ammar Maleki, Assistant Professor, Public Law and Governance, Tilburg University

Protesters defied a savage regime crackdown to take to the streets to demand change. X

Iranians have shown a willingness to pay a devastating price for political change, as protest has consistently been met by the Islamic Republic with violence and mass killing. The death toll since Iranians took to the streets on December 28 has reportedly passed 500, with more than 10,000 arrested. Incoming reports put the casualty count much higher.

A clear majority of Iranians do not want the theocracy that came to power with the 1979 revolution. They want a secular democracy. But what does public opinion tell us about what that should entail and how this change should be achieved?

Measuring public opinion in one of the world’s most repressive countries is not an easy matter. Conventional surveys conducted through (landline) phones or by face-to-face interviews tend to reflect an implausibly homogeneous Islamic and pro-regime society. By contrast, Gamaan — the Group for Analysing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran — conducts surveys anonymously through the internet.

Our research is based on representative samples of anything from tens of thousands to over 100,000 respondents. In 2020 a Gamaan survey revealed a diverse, secularising and dissident society, in which around 70% rejected the compulsory hijab. These numbers materialised in the streets in 2022, during the “woman life freedom” protests (find out more about sample characteristics, weighting information, and external benchmark tests at gamaan.org and this Wapor methodology webinar).

To improve randomisation, we collaborate with Psiphon VPN, which is widely used across Iran. By 2025, an estimated 90% of Iranian internet users relied on VPNs to access blocked platforms, including basic messaging apps such as Whatsapp.

This level of coverage enabled what we call VPN sampling, yielding large, socially diverse samples under conditions of safety and anonymity. Combined with scale, anonymity offers reliable insight into what Iranians really want. The latest survey on the 12-day war with Israel, taken in September 2025, secured more than 30,000 responses from inside the country.

Why protests, again? What is different?

Our surveys consistently show that the majority shares a consensus on what it does not want. Across provinces, rural and urban areas, age groups and gender, roughly 70–80% say they would not vote for the Islamic Republic.

In all survey waves, support for regime change as a precondition for meaningful progress has been the most popular position. This support previously spiked during the “woman life freedom” protests. We believe we are currently witnessing another spike, given the increase observed after the 12-day war.

Results from GAMAAN’s surveys conducted between 2021 and 2025.
CC BY-ND

In contrast with the context of previous protests, the regime is militarily weakened from the 12-day war, during which many senior commanders were killed. Iran is now culturally weakened, no longer able to enforce the compulsory hijab. It is also economically weakened, with a plummeting currency.

Iranians believe that protests, foreign pressure and intervention are more likely to bring about political change than elections and reforms. They were thus emboldened when, for the first time, a US president threatened intervention should protesters be killed. This came days after the abduction by the US military of the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, a key ally of the Islamic Republic.

Results from GAMAAN’s 2025 survey on the 12-Day War.
CC BY-ND

What might lie ahead?

Protesters today separate the very idea of Iran from the Islamic Republic. They view the regime as an alien element, an occupying force. This has long been expressed in slogans such as “Our enemy is right here, they lie that it is America” and “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, I only give my life for Iran” (supported respectively by 73% and 64% when we tested them in 2021).

The popularity of Reza Pahlavi, the former crown prince in exile who represents inherited monarchical nationalism, can be understood in light of this Iran-first mentality. Pahlavi’s social base remained stable in Gamaan’s surveys between 2022 and 2025. Roughly one-third are strong supporters and another third strongly oppose him. The remaining segment somewhat agrees or disagrees, or expresses no opinion.

The current surge in pro-Pahlavi slogans suggests that his popularity is attracting segments of the latter moderate or undecided population. But our surveys found that his popularity is unevenly distributed. It is lower in provinces with higher ethnic minority populations, such as the Kurds, Azeri Turks and Baluch.

Results from GAMAAN’s 2025 survey on the 12-day war.
CC BY-ND

Although there is no consensus on the form or structure of an alternative political system, it is noteworthy that in 2025 there was, for the first time, a marked increase in support for monarchy. Given the significant size of those who do not voice a strong opinion on the alternative, any group that can successfully topple the Islamic Republic will have an advantage in convincing the majority to adopt its proposed model.

Results from GAMAAN’s 2025 survey on the 12-day war.
CC BY-ND

Iranians overwhelmingly support a “democratic political system” – with 89% in favour. Support for political liberalism, however, is weaker. In 2024, 43% agreed with having “a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections”. This view is significantly higher among those without higher education – among monarchists, it is 49%.

These facts should not be lamented or mocked but understood, if the threat of a lack of liberalism is to be mitigated. While nationalism may generate the force of a revolutionary storm capable of toppling the regime, long-term stability, after the fall of the Islamic Republic, will also require an acceptance of Iran’s cultural and ideological diversity as permanent features of a truly free nation.

The Conversation

Ammar Maleki is the founder and director of non-profit GAMAAN. He was selected as World Association for Public Opinion Research’s national representative for Iran for the 2025–2027 term.

Pooyan Tamimi Arab receives funding from the Dutch Research Council for the project Iran’s Secular Shift (2025-2030; VI.Vidi.231F.020). He is a board member of the non-profit research institute GAMAAN.

ref. Iran protests 2026: our surveys show Iranians agree more on regime change than what might come next – https://theconversation.com/iran-protests-2026-our-surveys-show-iranians-agree-more-on-regime-change-than-what-might-come-next-273198

Thomas Hardy’s Jude the Obscure criticised university elitism – it still rings true today

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shelley Galpin, Lecturer in Culture, Media and Creative Industries, King’s College London

Thomas Hardy’s final novel, Jude the Obscure (1895), was ahead of its time in more ways that one. Upon its publication, it provoked controversy with its explicit criticism of organised religion and traditional marriage, leading to book burnings and public criticism.

Hardy attributed the public criticism to his retirement from novel writing. He had already courted controversy in the literary establishment a few years earlier by describing the unmarried mother who (spoiler alert) goes on to commit murder at the centre of Tess of the D’Urbervilles (1891) as “a pure woman”. But Jude the Obscure was his most searing attack yet on the hypocrisies of late Victorian society.

The novel’s apparent endorsement of free love, and damning portrait of conventional marriage, alienated many readers including – perhaps unsurprisingly – Hardy’s wife, with whom the novel caused an irreparable breach.


This article is part of Rethinking the Classics. The stories in this series offer insightful new ways to think about and interpret classic books and artworks. This is the canon – with a twist.


There’s no getting away from it, the story is something of a downer. It’s the tale of a young man – the “obscure” Jude – whose life starts off hard and gets harder as he faces a string of obstacles in the pursuit of his dreams. And he is a dreamer.

The novel opens with a young Jude being introduced to the idea of a university education, as his beloved schoolteacher leaves him for the dreaming spires of Oxford (called Christminster in the novel). Gazing at the “mirage” of the cityscape on the horizon and captivated by the idea of this “beautiful city”, Jude is immediately cautioned by his guardian that it “is a place much too good for you”.

Black and white photo of Thomas Hardy. He wears a suit and has a prominent moustache
Thomas Hardy.
Library of Congress

As the somewhat bleak title suggests, this is a story about alienation and social exclusion. Unperturbed by the ominous warnings, the working class Jude seeks to prepare himself for a university education by self-educating, using borrowed textbooks to teach himself Ancient Greek and Latin and studying diligently for many years.

As a young man, working as a stonemason in Christminster, Jude is determined to prove that universities are not, as he is told, “only for them with plenty o’ money”. He writes to the university, seeking advice on how to further his ambition of studying with them. The answer, when it comes, is crushing. Jude is advised that “as a working-man … [he] will have a better chance of success in life by remaining in [his] own sphere and sticking to [his] trade”.

In one of the most visceral images in the book, Jude responds by scrawling on the outside walls of the university: “I have understanding as well as you. I am not inferior to you.”

Sadly, this act of protest is still resonant today. As Jude understands, education is a path to social mobility. His impassioned defence of his own worth, as a scholar and as a human being, highlights the barriers faced by economically disadvantaged young people.

Inequality persists

In today’s society, it is unlikely that any hopeful student would receive such overt “stay in your lane” advice. Contemporary higher education aspires to a culture of widening participation, in which students from traditionally underrepresented groups are encouraged through outreach initiatives, contextual offers (in which applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds are given slightly lower grade requirements) and scholarships to apply to university.

Well-publicised schemes such as the Stormzy Scholarships, which seek to make University of Cambridge degrees more affordable for black students, have the explicit aim of redressing historical inequalities to make the university admissions process a more equitable system.

However, inequalities persist. Students from the poorest backgrounds are still drastically underrepresented at the UK’s most elite universities. Admissions statistics show that at Oxford, the object of Jude’s ambitions, applicants from fee-paying schools are more likely to be accepted than those from state schools.

Trailer for the 1996 adaptation of Jude the Obscure.

Factor in, too, the increasingly eye-watering costs of living for students and, despite years of effort, the danger is that a university education remains the preserve of “them with plenty o’ money”.

As Hardy shows in the novel, the consequences can be devastating. While on a population level it results in stagnating social mobility, on a personal level the frustrations associated with the failure to fulfil your potential are profound, and the practical implications of being forced to remain in a position of economic dependence are severe.

Jude’s persistent reliance on the goodwill of others, and his struggles to provide for his growing family, all stem from his exclusion from the opportunity to raise his social position.

As his desperate scrawls on the walls of the university argue, access to higher education should be for those with merit, not money. Some 130 years on from the publication of Hardy’s novel, it seems work still needs to be done, lest we risk future generations falling into obscurity.

Beyond the Canon

As part of the Rethinking the Classics series, we’re asking our experts to recommend a book or artwork that tackles similar themes to the canonical work in question, but isn’t (yet) considered a classic itself. Here is Shelley Galpin’s suggestion:

Like Jude the Obscure, Willy Russell’s Educating Rita (1980) is about education and the class system. In one scene, Rita, a working class Open University student from the north of England, has her books burned by her husband after he discovers she’s secretly been using contraception.

Watching Rita look on helplessly as her books and notes gradually succumb to the flames, as dramatised in the 1983 film, I vividly remember being moved to tears. I understood that Rita’s husband wasn’t just hindering her learning, he was telling her he didn’t want her to become an educated person, as he feared what education would give her.

Trailer for the 1983 adaptation of Educating Rita.

At the heart of the play is a message that is too often lost in the current obsession with quantifiable measures of success and employability. That is, for some people, education is not merely a means to a qualification or a higher paying job. Education can be the end in itself.

Describing the book burning, Rita reflects on her husband’s failure to understand her studies, stating that her education is a chance to “breathe” and find herself. The value of this for anyone, although not easily measurable, can be profound.

While Jude’s barriers prove insurmountable, Rita’s is a more hopeful story. It stands as an impassioned argument for the significance and power of lifelong learning, and like Hardy’s novel before it, for the importance of accessible education.


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This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

The Conversation

Shelley Galpin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Thomas Hardy’s Jude the Obscure criticised university elitism – it still rings true today – https://theconversation.com/thomas-hardys-jude-the-obscure-criticised-university-elitism-it-still-rings-true-today-266009