Le « live shopping » : l’évolution du modèle d’achat en ligne

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Basma Taieb, Enseignante-chercheuse en marketing digital , Pôle Léonard de Vinci

Alors que TF1 vient de supprimer son téléshopping trente-huit ans après sa création, le « live shopping » connaît un succès grandissant. Reste que pour transformer le live en achats sonnants et trébuchants, des règles doivent être respectées. Si la confiance est nécessaire pour déclencher le processus d’achat, ce dernier carbure aussi à l’émotion.


Le live shopping, appelé aussi le live streaming commerce (LSC), consiste à vendre les produits en direct par vidéo. Le LSC est très populaire en Chine, il a connu dans ce pays une croissance sans précédent depuis 2017. L’achat en streaming en direct a fait son entrée sur le marché français en 2020 durant la pandémie de Covid-19, avec Les Galeries Lafayette.

Une recherche récente, menée auprès de 555 consommateurs français, propose un modèle éclairant des mécanismes sous-jacents à l’achat lors du LSC. Celui-ci révèle que le processus d’achat en ligne est déterminé par l’articulation séquentielle et complémentaire de deux dimensions : la confiance envers le produit (cognitive) et l’expérience de flow (affective). Bien mené, le live shopping peut être un canal de vente très puissant promettant des taux de conversion jusqu’à dix fois supérieurs à ceux du e-commerce traditionnel.

Lever les freins à l’achat en ligne

Dans l’univers asynchrone et parfois impersonnel des sites e-commerce traditionnels, le risque perçu et l’incertitude sur la qualité des produits peuvent freiner l’achat. Le LSC réintroduit une dimension sociale et interactive cruciale, incarnée par le streamer. Ce dernier n’est pas un simple présentateur, mais un véritable prescripteur dont les caractéristiques vont directement nourrir la confiance du consommateur à l’égard du produit.




À lire aussi :
Le commerce de détail : un secteur en crise ?


Trois qualités se révèlent déterminantes :

  • son expertise technique sur les produits,

  • sa crédibilité perçue (honnêteté, sincérité)

  • et surtout sa réactivité à répondre en temps réel aux questions posées par les consommateurs via la boîte de dialogue.

Les résultats de cette recherche sont sans appel. Sans ces attributs, la confiance peine à s’établir.

« C’est qu’on peut poser nos questions et que la vendeuse est très réactive… Je trouvais que les précisions étaient toutes au rendez-vous, ça met vraiment en confiance. » (Sylvain, 30 ans, enquête qualitative)

Le rôle des émotions

Si la confiance du consommateur est le socle indispensable à l’achat lors du LSC, l’expérience de flow constitue un réel moteur émotionnel. Concept introduit par le psychologue Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, le flow désigne cet état d’immersion totale et de plaisir dans une activité, au point d’en oublier le temps qui passe.

Le LSC est un terrain particulièrement propice pour générer cet état. Deux caractéristiques propres à ce format y contribuent : l’interactivité en temps réel (chat, réactions, sentiment de communauté) et l’attractivité de la présentation (visuels dynamiques, scénarisation, divertissement). Ces stimuli captivent l’attention et créent un engagement profond.

« On a vraiment l’impression d’être dans la pièce avec elle comme si on assistait à l’essayage en direct… J’étais très attentive aux commentaires des autres personnes, on a vraiment cette idée de communauté. » (Aurélien, 35 ans, enquête qualitative)

Une expérience captivante

Les résultats de l’enquête montrent que c’est précisément cette expérience de flow qui influence le plus fortement et directement l’intention d’achat. La rationalité (la confiance) prépare le terrain, mais c’est l’émotion (le flow) qui renforce l’intention d’achat. Autrement dit, la confiance est une condition nécessaire mais non suffisante. Elle agit comme un facilitateur essentiel, créant un environnement sécurisé et crédible. C’est ensuite en se transformant en expérience de flow qu’elle démultiplie son effet sur la décision du consommateur.

Cette voie « mixte », allant du cognitif à l’affectif est au cœur du processus d’intention d’achat en ligne lors du LSC. Elle explique pourquoi une simple démonstration du produit, même technique et fiable, peut échouer si elle n’est pas portée par une expérience captivante.

Des outils à manier avec stratégie

Cette compréhension fine du mécanisme d’achat en LSC offre des leviers d’action concrets pour les marques et les retailers :

  • Sélection et formation des streamers : prioriser l’expertise produit, l’authenticité et la capacité à interagir vite et bien. La réactivité est le facteur ayant le plus fort impact sur la confiance.

  • Scénarisation de l’expérience : concevoir les lives non comme des catalogues animés, mais comme des moments de divertissement et de socialisation. Intégrer des fonctionnalités ludiques (concours, jeux, récompenses) et favoriser les interactions entre les participants pour renforcer le sentiment de communauté et d’immersion.

  • Adopter une approche holistique : ne pas dissocier l’argumentaire (confiance) de la forme (flow). Une démonstration produit doit être à la fois précise et spectaculaire ; une interaction via le chat doit être à la fois rapide et chaleureuse.

Le live streaming commerce, loin d’être un phénomène éphémère, incarne ainsi l’avenir d’un e-commerce à la fois plus interactif et plus immersif. Son succès repose sur une alchimie subtile entre la confiance rationnelle dans le produit et l’expérience immersive, un équilibre que les marques doivent absolument maîtriser.

The Conversation

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. Le « live shopping » : l’évolution du modèle d’achat en ligne – https://theconversation.com/le-live-shopping-levolution-du-modele-dachat-en-ligne-272949

Managers, abandonner n’est pas une preuve d’échec. C’est une compétence !

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Julia Milner, Professeure de leadership, EDHEC Business School

Cette fois, c’est décidé, tout va changer. On est lundi ; c’est le bon moment pour vous y mettre. Las ! Déjà 11 h 30 et toutes les routines que vous ne vouliez plus voir sont à l’œuvre. C’est reparti pour un tour ! Ne vous accablez pas outre mesure. Ce n’est pas un problème de personne mais de méthode. Découvrez celles éprouvées par la recherche qui montrent que pour changer, il faut peut-être commencer par changer la manière de penser… puis celle de faire.


Tous les lundis matin (ou presque), de nombreux managers se font la même promesse : fini les réunions inutiles ! Place à une meilleure délégation des tâches pour avoir enfin une semaine plus calme. Et pourtant, arrivé à midi, les points se sont multipliés, Slack est en effervescence et la nouvelle manière de travailler tant espérée est déjà oubliée. S’ensuit une nouvelle résolution : « Je n’ai pas le temps aujourd’hui, je commencerai vraiment lundi prochain. »

Et le même scénario se reproduit semaine après semaine, entretenant l’idée que changer n’est pas possible. Pourtant rien n’est moins vrai. Si le changement échoue, c’est parce que l’on se trompe sur sa nature profonde et, par conséquent, sur les moyens à mettre en œuvre pour y arriver. Un changement durable ne commence pas par l’ajout de contraintes supplémentaires à celles existant mais par un véritable lâcher-prise.




À lire aussi :
Managers, et si vous redécouvriez l’art de la débrouille ?


Quand la persévérance devient obstination

Or, cette nécessaire disposition d’esprit bute sur des croyances bien ancrées chez de nombreux managers. Les responsables d’équipe valorisent la persévérance. Cela fait partie de leur formation et de la culture de leur métier. Pourtant, la persévérance qui est une qualité – peut vite devenir un défaut, quand elle devient obstination, cette disposition d’esprit qui maintient quoi qu’il en coûte des routines inutiles : des réunions récurrentes dont personne n’a besoin, à la production de rapports lus par personne, en passant par des boucles d’approbation qui ralentissent les décisions. Elles restent en place parce que les abandonner reviendrait à admettre que les mettre en place était une erreur. Et pourtant c’est bien connu, errare humanun est, perseverare diabolicum.

Il est nécessaire dès lors de changer de point de vue, de mindset. Loin d’être un recul, abandonner peut être stratégique. Pour cela, il est nécessaire d’apprendre de ce que vous abandonnez, de savoir trier pour conserver ce qui a fonctionné et, surtout, de distinguer la persévérance de l’obstination.

Mieux gérer ou abandonner ?

Par exemple, faut-il maintenir ou supprimer la réunion hebdomadaire d’état d’avancement des différents projets, dont on ne sait plus par qui elle a été instituée et quel est son réel objet. Si elle est devenue contre-productive, ne perdez pas votre temps à essayer de « mieux la gérer ». Conservez la fonction (partage d’informations, déblocage des décisions) et abandonnez le rituel. Remplacez-la, par exemple, par une mise à jour asynchrone et réservez un court laps de temps qui sera consacré uniquement aux décisions. Cela ne signifie pas que vous en faites moins ; vous libérez du temps pour mettre en place de nouvelles habitudes qui amélioreront la qualité du travail de votre équipe.

La même logique s’applique aux désaccords ou à une dynamique d’équipe ralentie. Lorsque les comportements se répètent, changer les conditions fonctionne souvent plus rapidement que de répéter la même conversation : déplacez la discussion, changez le rythme, réorganisez les étapes, puis observez à quelle vitesse les « habitudes » de l’équipe changent.

Quitter l’illusion du perfectionnisme

Le travail n’est pas un environnement sous total contrôle. Les délais changent, les priorités sont en concurrence permanente et l’énergie fluctue. Dans cet environnement normal, les managers continuent paradoxalement d’attendre que le changement soit linéaire et de s’adonner à une forme de perfectionnisme qui n’est pas adapté à la situation.

La notion d’optimalisme, travaillée en particulier par Tal Ben-Shahar, serait plus adaptée. Dans cette perspective, je propose de gérer de front ce décalage : lorsque la réalité change, les habitudes doivent s’adapter.

Il est dès lors essentiel de « normaliser » le redémarrage, en visant ce qui est immédiatement réalisable et en réduisant le coût du retour en arrière. Cela signifie considérer les possibles retours en arrière comme faisant partie du processus plutôt que comme le signe, ou pire encore, comme la preuve, d’une incapacité. Un manager doit pouvoir indiquer à ses équipes qu’il teste un nouvelle façon de travailler provisoirement.

Cela est particulièrement vrai pour les routines d’équipe. Si elles échouent, c’est rarement parce que « les gens s’en moquent », comme on l’entend trop souvent. Elles échouent parce que la pression augmente et qu’un seul faux pas devient toute une histoire. La réponse est l’itération : prototyper, ajuster, demander des commentaires, et redémarrer au lieu d’attendre le moment parfait.

BFM Business 2021.

Comment conserver l’élan ?

Si abandonner redonne du temps ; recommencer permet de conserver son élan. La question qui reste alors est de savoir comment développer des habitudes qui résistent aux réalités du monde du travail : délais, interruptions, stress, enjeux politiques internes…

Trois catégories de leviers ont été identifiées par la recherche :

  • le pouvoir (Power) invite à structurer en commençant, si nécessaire, pas des petits pas, dans le cadre de priorités formalisées ;

  • l’action (Move) s’appuie sur la régularité, sur la continuité, mais aussi sur le support d’autrui, en cohérence avec sa propre dynamique ;

  • le changement (Shift) désigne l’état d’esprit « positif », puisqu’il s’agit de changer en y prenant plaisir, en conciliant détermination et souplesse avec soi-même.

Pour les managers, le message est clair : cessez de traiter les habitudes de travail comme des problèmes privés de discipline. Commencez à les considérer comme des problèmes de conception et de méthodologie individuelles au sein d’un collectif.

La question de la délégation montre pourquoi cela est si important. Un leader ou un manager peut vouloir déléguer, mais revenir au contrôle lorsque les enjeux augmentent. « Move » consiste alors ajouter un léger contrôle pour favoriser l’autonomie plutôt que la surveillance. « Shift » conduit à nommer l’émotion sous-jacente la rechute : derrière la mise en place de normes se trouve souvent une forme d’anxiété déguisée.

Le mirage de la sur motivation

Le manque de temps ou de moyens peut aussi faire dérailler la mise en place de routines ou d’habitudes positives en raison d’une trop grande pression. C’est le domaine des discours que vous avez déjà entendus, des prétextes du type « oui mais je n’ai pas le temps », « vouloir changer était une erreur et j’ai préféré abandonner » etc. L’antidote à ces situations n’est pas à aller chercher dans des discours de sur motivation, souvent creux, mais dans la mise en place de mécanismes efficaces.

Quand on veut changer une habitude, il ne faut pas avoir peur d’opérer des vérifications fréquentes, d’enregistrer les microvictoires visibles. Un changement d’habitudes ne se fait pas par magie, il demande de la méthode, de l’organisation autant que de la persévérance.

Dans l’ensemble, la méthode que je décris est simple et peut être résumée en trois suggestions :

  • arrêter avec intention,

  • savoir recommencer sans drame

  • et redessiner les routines pour les adapter au système dans lequel vous travaillez réellement.

Car la pression et le changement ne sont pas des exceptions. Ils sont devenus la norme des organisations.

The Conversation

Julia Milner ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Managers, abandonner n’est pas une preuve d’échec. C’est une compétence ! – https://theconversation.com/managers-abandonner-nest-pas-une-preuve-dechec-cest-une-competence-274078

L’IA est conçue pour terminer le travail, pas pour le commencer

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Gaurav Gupta, Professor of AI and Digital Entrepreneurship, Neoma Business School

Une étude expérimentale a tenté d’identifier la valeur ajoutée de l’intelligence artificielle lors d’un *hackathon*. Wikimediacommons

L’IA ne remplace pas la collaboration humaine. C’est un outil qui repose sur le bon timing. Utilisée trop tôt, elle court-circuite la réflexion. Utilisée au bon moment, elle fait gagner du temps. Alors où l’IA est-elle la plus utile dans un projet, de la phase de lancement à la phase de suivi ?


Certains et certaines d’entre nous sont passés par là. Il est 16 h un mardi. Le tableau blanc est couvert de gribouillis, mais la « grande idée » ne vient pas. Le silence règne dans la pièce. L’énergie s’est évaporée dans l’air. Puis, quelqu’un ouvre son ordinateur portable et tape un prompt dans ChatGPT.

L’écran se remplit instantanément de points et de mots. La tension retombe. L’équipe approuve d’un signe de tête : on dirait une stratégie. On dirait un plan d’action. On dirait un progrès.

Mais ce n’est pas le cas.

Une expérience menée par le Boston Consulting Group révèle que cette sensation de soulagement est un piège : les performances de 750 consultants utilisant l’IA ont été inférieures de 23 % à celles de leurs collègues qui n’utilisaient pas l’IA.

Ce n’est pas un cas isolé. Cette expérience est symptomatique d’une incompréhension plus large sur la manière d’utiliser l’intelligence artificielle au bon moment.

C’est pourquoi dans une étude récente impliquant 107 consultants d’une entreprise du classement états-unien Fortune 500, nous avons suivi les performances des équipes utilisant l’IA lors d’un hackathon. Ces dernières devaient élaborer un plan de projet (objectifs, étapes, ressources et délais du projet) pour le lancement d’une nouvelle solution numérique.

Les résultats remettent en question l’idée selon laquelle « il vaut mieux trop que pas assez ». Nous avons constaté que l’IA générative offre une valeur ajoutée pendant la phase d’exécution d’un projet. Cependant, durant la phase critique de lancement, elle offre une valeur négligeable, voire parfois négative.

Le piège de la « moyenne »

Pourquoi un outil fondé sur la somme des connaissances humaines échoue-t-il dès le départ ? La réponse est simple : l’IA excelle dans les schémas préétablis, mais elle est mauvaise pour naviguer dans le flou, ou ce que les sciences de gestion nomment l’ambiguïté.

Lancer un projet nécessite une « pensée divergente ». Vous devez explorer des idées folles et contradictoires pour trouver une proposition de valeur unique.

Nos données montrent que l’IA générative nuit aux performances dans cette phase précise. Cette idée correspond au « principe de pertinence » dans la recherche en management. Comme les grands modèles linguistiques en IA sont des moteurs probabilistes, ils ne peuvent logiquement traduire une discussion spontanée. Le « mot suivant » rédigée par une IA est tiré d’une moyenne statistique des mots probables liés au mot précédent, au lieu d’un mot précis et idoine.




À lire aussi :
Pourquoi l’IA oblige les entreprises à repenser la valeur du travail


Si ces algorithmes permettent d’éviter les idées « désastreuses », ils tuent les idées « farfelues ». L’IA rehausse le niveau de qualité minimum d’un projet en nivelant par le bas le niveau de qualité maximum. Vous obtenez un concept soigné, robuste, mais tout à fait moyen.

Moteur du « comment »

Une fois que les humains ont défini le « pourquoi » et le « quoi », l’IA devient le moteur du « comment ».

Comme nous le soulignons dans notre recherche, l’utilisation de l’IA se révèle davantage pertinente pendant les phases de planification et d’exécution. La « planification » consiste à transformer les objectifs en calendriers. L’« exécution » consiste à rédiger les livrables, tels que le code ou les textes marketing.

Deux mécanismes sont à l’origine de cette augmentation des performances lors de ces deux phases précises :

Traducteur des expertises

Des recherches suggèrent que l’IA agit comme un traducteur dans une équipe, notamment pour les experts. Par exemple, elle aide un spécialiste du marketing à rédiger un dossier technique ou un développeur à rédiger un communiqué de presse. Par ricochet, l’IA réduit les coûts de coordination.

Tâches fastidieuses

L’IA se charge des tâches fastidieuses telles que la rédaction de codes standardisés ou de diapositives. Dès lors, les humains peuvent se consacrer à des tâches à forte valeur ajoutée.

Signalement du « patron numérique »

La dernière phase, celle du suivi, recèle un danger caché.

Les outils modernes d’IA peuvent analyser les échanges de courriels, afin de détecter les risques humains autour d’un projet, comme une baisse de moral ou un stress avant qu’une échéance ne soit dépassée.




À lire aussi :
Et si votre prochain collègue était un agent IA ?


Une étude sur le marketing d’influence nous met en garde : lorsque les employés se sentent surveillés par des algorithmes, l’authenticité disparaît. Ils commencent à « manipuler les indicateurs », en travaillant pour satisfaire l’IA plutôt que pour atteindre l’objectif.

Si l’IA devient un « patron numérique », la sécurité psychologique s’érode. Les équipes cessent de signaler honnêtement les risques d’un projet pour éviter d’être eux-mêmes signalées par l’IA.

Une stratégie en fonction des étapes

Les dirigeants doivent cesser de considérer l’IA générative comme une solution universelle. Ils doivent plutôt adopter une stratégie en fonction des étapes d’un projet.

Au cours de la phase de lancement

Établissez des « zones réservées aux humains ». Obligez les équipes à définir le problème sans algorithmes.

Au cours de la phase d’exécution

Utilisez l’IA pour faire se comprendre les équipes, notamment les experts, et accélérer les tâches fastidieuses et ingrates.

Au cours de la phase de suivi

Utilisez l’IA pour donner de la visibilité à l’équipe, non pour l’espionner.

The Conversation

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. L’IA est conçue pour terminer le travail, pas pour le commencer – https://theconversation.com/lia-est-concue-pour-terminer-le-travail-pas-pour-le-commencer-272908

Crise de la dette sénégalaise : une boussole pour s’orienter

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Abdoulaye Ndiaye, ensiengnant-chercheur, New York University

Une question anime Dakar depuis plusieurs mois, mais également Londres, Paris, Pékin et Washington : le Sénégal devrait-il continuer à rembourser sa dette sur un chemin peut-être insoutenable ou faire défaut sur sa dette ? Cette question en ouvre une autre, non moins complexe : cette dette est-elle soutenable ?

La signification du terme « soutenable » n’est pas aisée à définir, pour deux raisons : d’abord parce que cette définition dépend non seulement des conditions actuelles, mais aussi de choix futurs ; ensuite parce que la soutenabilité de la dette ne dépend pas uniquement de ce que perçoit l’administration sénégalaise, mais aussi de ses créanciers, comme le FMI, les institutions multilatérales et bilatérales, et les marchés financiers.

Le Sénégal fait face à une crise de la dette aiguë, marquée par un surendettement atteignant environ 132 % du PIB selon le Fonds monétaire international (FMI). Le service de la dette s’élève à 5 500 milliards de francs CFA (9,1 milliards de dollars US), mobilisant une part croissante des recettes fiscales. La situation, aggravée par la découverte d’une « dette cachée », ce qui nécessite une restructuration que le Premier ministre Ousmane Sonko exclut.

Un nouveau rapport tente de décrire les principales conséquences de deux options : tenter de rembourser à tout prix ou bien faire défaut. Abdoulaye Ndiaye, l’un des auteurs, s’est entretenu avec The Conversation Africa.


Comment la crise de la dette du Sénégal est-elle apparue ?

En septembre 2024, le nouveau gouvernement, élu en avril de la même année, découvre et annonce publiquement des anomalies dans les rapports sur la dette. Dans la foulée, en octobre de la même année, le FMI suspend son programme d’aide au pays.

Quelques mois plus tard, en février 2025, la Cour des comptes estime que le déficit a été sous-estimé de 5,6 % du PIB par an entre 2019 et 2023. Dès lors, le ratio dette/PIB est révisé à 100 %, contre 74 % initialement annoncés. Entre mars 2025 et octobre 2025, malgré plusieurs visites dans le pays, le programme FMI reste en hiatus.

Par la suite, le gouvernement publie le budget révisé pour 2025 ainsi que les
perspectives à moyen terme. La dette est désormais estimée à 120 % du PIB, Un mois après, la mission envoyée par le FMI est prolongée de deux semaines. Dans le même temps, les premières tensions publiques majeures éclatent entre le FMI et le gouvernement. Conséquence directe, les obligations d’État s’effondrent. Face à cette pression, le Premier ministre Ousmane Sonko s’engage à tout mettre en oeuvre pour éviter un défaut de paiement.




Read more:
PIB du Sénégal : comment le nouveau calcul redessine les marges de manœuvre de l’État


Sur quels paris repose la stratégie actuelle du Sénégal face à la crise de la dette ?

Rembourser à tout prix, c’est faire deux paris en un. Le premier, c’est celui d’une consolidation budgétaire massive en un temps record. Autrement dit, un marathon au rythme d’un sprint. Passer de 14 % du PIB de déficit primaire en 2024 environ à 2 % de surplus est quelque chose que seulement quelques pays ont pu faire, généralement en profitant d’une manne exceptionnelle de ressources naturelles. C’est le cas d’Antigua-et-Barbuda qui a réalisé un spectaculaire rebond budgétaire avec des excédents primaires après des années de déficit.

Le second pari, c’est que pendant ce temps certains acteurs clés dont le FMI accepteront de croire que la dette du Sénégal est soutenable, autrement dit de prêter en ce moment difficile. Pour financer son déficit courant, mais aussi la dette à rembourser entre 2026 et 2028, le gouvernement doit lever 15 000 milliards de francs CFA (25 milliards de dollars US).

Si le FMI ne peut pas intervenir, qui pourrait financer le Sénégal et à quel prix ?

L’institution la plus à même de le faire serait effectivement le FMI, dont les programmes visent précisément à soutenir des pays en crise, qui permettent de mobiliser d’autres prêteurs concessionnels, et dont les prêts aux pays pauvres sont à taux zéro. Mais du fait de ses propres règles, le FMI ne peut signer de programme que si son cadre d’analyse de la dette publique indique que la dette est soutenable. Or, aussi imparfait que soit cet outil, notre analyse indique qu’il est peu probable que ce soit le cas.

Si le FMI ne peut pas prêter, d’autres acteurs pourraient-ils s’y substituer ? C’est possible : on l’a vu par le passé : dans le cas de l’Egypte ou du Kenya en 2024, des prêteurs émergents comme les Emirats Arabes Unis ont accepté de fournir des liquidités malgré des doutes sur la solvabilité du pays. Mais il serait illusoire de croire que ces soutiens sont gratuits : plus ils sont risqués, plus ils vont exiger des contreparties : privatisations douloureuses, etc.




Read more:
Crise de la dette: les quatre leviers qui peuvent aider le Sénégal à éviter la restructuration


Le Sénégal dispose-t-il d’une autre option pour faire face à sa crise de la dette ?

Une troisième option serait de s’appuyer sur les marchés financiers régionaux. En 2025, ce sont les banques régionales qui ont financé l’endettement sénégalais, fournissant plus de 4000 milliards de francs CFA (6,7 milliards dollars US). Elles pourraient continuer, mais sans doute pas dans les mêmes volumes : cela réduirait les prêts au secteur privé, et, surtout, pourrait exposer le secteur bancaire à un risque croissant.

Il n’est pas impossible que ce double pari réussisse, mais une telle stratégie expose à des risques considérables : soit que la consolidation massive échoue, soit qu’aucun prêteur ne se manifeste.

Si le Sénégal dispose d’une autre option pour faire face à la crise de la dette, là, on peut parler également du fait qu’il y a eu, pour développer cette partie, plus d’opérations opaques, comme les échanges de rendement total – contrat financier dans lequel deux parties échangent des flux financiers liés à la performance d’un actif –, qui sont essentiellement des manières pour les marchés financiers internationaux de pouvoir accéder au marché sénégalais. Ce sont des produits dérivés financiers.

Comment le Sénégal peut-il négocier sa dette sans bloquer ses investissements futurs ?

L’autre stratégie possible est de chercher à négocier avec les créanciers, dans le « Cadre Commun », la procédure mise en place par le G20 pour réduire les dettes dues aux créanciers bilatéraux des pays en développement.

Ce choix n’est pas aisé non plus. Les cas récents de restructuration étaient longs et complexes, même si les derniers en date, le Ghana et l’Éthiopie, ont vu une certaine accélération. La communauté internationale devrait en faire un test de collaboration possible : la Chine et la France, qui détiennent ensemble environ 70% de la dette bilatérale, devraient clairement montrer leur soutien en s’engageant à traiter la dette le plus rapidement possible.

Négocier avec les créanciers privés est toujours compliqué : ils chercheraient à minimiser leurs pertes, et les obligations seraient classées en « défaut » par les agences de notation. Ces conséquences sont importantes, mais la réémergence après un défaut est possible, en particulier quand la dette est réduite de manière suffisamment décisive.

De leur côté, les institutions internationales devront soutenir le pays avec de nouveaux prêts, pour que le Sénégal puisse continuer à investir malgré les difficultés d’accès aux marchés internationaux. Enfin, pour minimiser les coûts économiques, il faudrait exclure les dettes dues en franc CFA du périmètre de restructuration, pour éviter de déstabiliser la zone.




Read more:
Comment le Sénégal peut financer son économie sans s’endetter davantage


Quelle est, selon vous, la meilleure voie à suivre ?

Dans tous les cas, les leçons de cette crise doivent aller au-delà du Sénégal, et conduire à renforcer la transparence de la dette et la supervision bancaire dans la zone. Comme l’ont fait les pays européens au moment de la crise grecque en 2010, l’Union écoomique et monétaire ouest-africaine (Uemoa) devra se réformer et adopter des filets de sécurité additionnels.

L’expérience montre que repousser un défaut est coûteux : mieux vaut négocier tôt pour réduire l’impact sur les exportations et la croissance. Les deux choix en présence sont difficiles, et les deux imposeront des coûts sérieux à l’économie. Notre analyse est qu’en l’absence de liquidités importantes et peu chères, rembourser serait plus dangereux et coûteux.

Les coûts d’une restructuration se concentreraient principalement à court terme, avec des négociations pouvant durer deux à trois ans. En revanche, les conséquences de l’échec d’un remboursement seraient beaucoup plus lourdes et durables. Ce scénario ferait peser des risques importants sur la stabilité économique à long terme et doit donc être évité.

The Conversation

Abdoulaye Ndiaye does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Crise de la dette sénégalaise : une boussole pour s’orienter – https://theconversation.com/crise-de-la-dette-senegalaise-une-boussole-pour-sorienter-274339

How could Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the line of succession to the throne?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anne Twomey, Professor Emerita in Constitutional Law, University of Sydney

The place of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, former prince and brother of the king, in the line of succession to the British throne appears to be under threat in the United Kingdom.

Currently, Mountbatten-Windsor is eighth in line (after the families of princes William and Harry) to the Crowns of the United Kingdom and Australia. This makes it extremely unlikely he would ever become monarch, but his removal is more a symbolic act of repudiation.

Is it possible to remove him? The short answer is yes – but it would most likely be a time-consuming process involving many parliaments passing legislation.

Does the same line of succession apply to the British and Australian Crowns?

At the time of Australia’s federation in 1901, the British Crown was described as “one and indivisible”. Queen Victoria exercised constitutional powers over all her colonies, acting on the advice of British ministers.

That changed after the first world war, due to a series of Imperial Conferences, with the self-governing “dominions” (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, the Irish Free State and Newfoundland) having separate Crowns by 1930. This meant the Australian prime minister could advise the monarch about the appointment of the governor-general of Australia and other federal (but not state) Australian matters.

However, the rules of succession to these separate Crowns remained the same. They are a hotch-potch of English laws, including common law rules of inheritance and statutes, such as the Bill of Rights 1689 and the Act of Settlement 1701.

These laws became part of Australian law in the 18th century, but for a long time Australian parliaments had no power to alter them. This changed in 1931 with the enactment of the Statute of Westminster. It gave the dominions power to repeal or alter British laws that applied in their country.

However, recognising this could cause havoc in relation to succession to the Crown, a clause was included in the preamble to the statute, making it a convention that “any alteration in the law touching the Succession to the Throne” shall require the assent of the parliaments of all of the dominions and the United Kingdom. Section 4 of the statute continued the power of the UK parliament to legislate for a dominion, but only if it gave its request and consent.

In 1936, when King Edward VIII abdicated, the UK parliament enacted a statute to alter the rules of succession to the throne, to exclude any children he might have. Australia assented to the British parliament extending its law so it applied to Australia too.

That option is no longer available since the enactment of section 1 of the Australia Act 1986. It says that no act of the UK parliament shall extend as part of the law of the Commonwealth, or a state or territory. Any changes made to the operation of the laws of succession to the Crown of Australia must be made in Australia.

How could Australia change the law of succession?

When the Commonwealth Constitution was enacted, the Crown was still “one and indivisible”. This meant no one inserted a section giving the Commonwealth parliament power to make laws about succession to the Crown. However, the framers of the Constitution were clever enough to insert a mechanism to deal with such unanticipated developments.

Section 51(xxxviii) of the Constitution says the Commonwealth parliament may exercise a power, at the request or with the concurrence of all the states directly concerned, which only the UK parliament could have exercised at the time of federation. This means the Commonwealth and state parliaments can cooperate to change the rules of succession to the Crown of Australia.

This issue arose in 2011, when the various realms (being countries that retained Queen Elizabeth II as head of state) agreed to change the rules of succession so that males would no longer be given preference over females, and heirs would no longer be disqualified for marrying a Catholic.




Read more:
Power to the princesses: Australia wraps up succession law changes


The UK parliament enacted the Succession to the Crown Act 2013 to give legal effect to this change. However, it delayed commencing the act until other realms had enacted their changes too. The British act only made the change with respect to the Crown of the United Kingdom.

Some realms accepted they needed to change the law in relation to their own Crown. Others concluded they didn’t need to act, because their Constitution makes their sovereign the same person who is king or queen of the United Kingdom. Legislation was ultimately enacted in Australia, Barbados, Canada, New Zealand, St Kitts and Nevis, and St Vincent and the Grenadines.

In Australia, each state enacted the Succession to the Crown Act 2015. The Australian process took a long time, due to different legislative priorities and sitting periods, and the intervention of state election periods.

Australia was the last to enact its law, after which the alteration in succession was brought into effect simultaneously across all the realms.

How would the process operate today?

If it were proposed to remove Mountbatten-Windsor from the line of succession today, the UK government would probably first seek the agreement of all the realms. While not legally necessary, it is important if a shared monarch is to be retained for all realms to be consulted.

The UK parliament would then prepare its own bill, providing a template for other jurisdictions. This means the changes are uniform across the realms. The bill would probably also specify whether Mountbatten-Windsor’s exclusion affects his heirs, princesses Beatrice and Eugenie, and their children. Under the old law, a person who married a Catholic was treated as “dead” for the purposes of succession, so that their exclusion from the succession did not affect the hereditary position of their heirs. The same approach might be taken in relation to the exclusion of Mountbatten-Windsor.

The same parliaments that enacted laws in relation to the last change of succession (apart from Barbados, which is now a republic), would also need to enact an equivalent law, if they wish to maintain symmetry in such rules across the realms. Putting such a bill before a parliament runs the risk that other issues will be raised, opening broader questions concerning the role of the monarchy in different realms.

Could Australia make such a change on its own?

While Australia could unilaterally enact a law to exclude Mountbatten–Windsor from succession to the Crown of Australia, it is unlikely it would do so. There are two reasons for this.

First, it involves a lot of legislative hassle, getting seven parliaments to enact a law that will probably have no substantive effect, given how far Mountbatten-Windsor is down the line of succession.

Second, covering clause 2 of the Commonwealth Constitution says that references to “the Queen” in the Constitution shall “extend to Her Majesty’s heirs and successors in the sovereignty of the United Kingdom”.

There is considerable disagreement about whether this is just an interpretative provision about updating references, or whether it has a substantive effect.

Keeping Australia’s rules of succession in sync with those of the United Kingdom avoids opening that potential Pandora’s box.

The Conversation

Anne Twomey has received funding from the Australian Research Council and sometimes does consultancy work for governments and inter-governmental bodies. She also has a YouTube channel – The Constitutional Clarion.

ref. How could Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the line of succession to the throne? – https://theconversation.com/how-could-andrew-mountbatten-windsor-be-removed-from-the-line-of-succession-to-the-throne-276604

Gaza’s cultural sites have been decimated. UNESCO’s muted response sets a dangerous precedent

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Benjamin Isakhan, Professor of International Politics, Deakin University

The Great Omari Mosque in Gaza City after it was damaged by an Israeli strike. Ali Jadallah/Anadolu/Getty Images

Since October 2023, Israel’s war in Gaza has caused mass human suffering. But it has also brought devastation to the cultural heritage of the Palestinian people.

In our recent article in the International Journal of Heritage Studies, we documented the extent of heritage destruction in Gaza and analysed the strikingly limited response by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

We argue that UNESCO’s failures have consequences beyond Gaza, as they weaken deterrence of attacks on heritage sites globally and risk normalising impunity for these types of crimes in conflict.

Heritage destruction in Gaza

Gaza has a rich and layered heritage, with archaeological traces dating to at least 1300 BCE. It has long sat at the crossroads of many cultures, and has been controlled by the ancient Egyptians, Greeks and Romans.

Gaza is also home to historical sites important to the three main faiths of the region – Judaism, Christianity and Islam.

Much of this cultural heritage now lies in ruin. UNESCO’s Gaza damage assessment list includes 150 sites that have been damaged or destroyed since the war began.

Some of these are globally significant sites. Two are on UNESCO’s World Heritage Tentative List:

Other damaged or destroyed sites include:

  • the Greek Orthodox Saint Porphyrios Church, which dates to 425 CE and is sometimes referred to as the third-oldest church in the world

  • the seventh-century Great Omari Mosque, thought to be the first mosque in Gaza, along with its 13th-century library containing rare Islamic manuscripts

  • the Qasr al-Basha, a fortress also known as Pasha Palace, which was built in the mid-13th century by the Mamluk sultanate and had been turned into an archaeological museum

  • a Roman cemetery (Ard-al-Moharbeen), thought to have at least 134 tombs dating back to 200 BCE.

UNESCO’s failures

Apart from creating this list, UNESCO has been relatively muted in its response, compared with the role the agency has played in other conflicts.

This doesn’t mean it’s been completely silent. It has issued several statements condemning the destruction in Gaza and calling on “all involved parties to strictly adhere to international law”.

It has also elevated one heritage site to its List of World Heritage in Danger – the Saint Hilarion Monastery. Taking this step strengthens the protections around the site, with potential penalties for intentional damage.

Yet, despite these efforts, we question whether UNESCO has truly met the moment. Our analysis identifies a pattern of omission and understatement that is difficult to reconcile with UNESCO’s own mandate and the legal architecture that exists to protect cultural property in armed conflict.

For example, UNESCO has failed to publicly invoke the 1954 Hague Convention in relation to Gaza, which aims to protect cultural sites during conflict. The agency has cited it in virtually every major conflict since its ratification.

It also didn’t seek urgent action from the UN Security Council or the UN General Assembly to protect cultural sites. The agency did this in response to the Islamic State’s acts in Syria and Iraq (including the desecration of the World Heritage site of Palmyra). In 2017, for instance, the security council passed a resolution backed by UNESCO that laid out a number of steps to help protect cultural heritage in conflict.

Similarly, UNESCO has not worked with the International Criminal Court or the International Court of Justice to initiate proceedings against Israel or Israeli officials for the destruction of heritage in Gaza. The agency did this after conflicts in the Balkans and Mali. These trials established the intentional destruction of cultural property during conflict as a war crime.

Finally, UNESCO has not taken its usual approach of explicitly naming Israel as the perpetrator of cultural destruction in Gaza. It has taken this step in many recent conflicts. This includes Ukraine, where is has frequently named and condemned Russia as the perpetrator.

Why has UNESCO been so cautious?

One explanation offered by critics is geopolitical constraint. UNESCO has increasingly been criticised for an overdependence on voluntary state contributions. This can make the agency reluctant to confront powerful countries for fear of alienating supporters.

This dynamic is certainly evident in UNESCO’s long and strained relationship with Israel and the US. Both formally withdrew from UNESCO in 2019 because the agency had described Israel as an occupying power in Gaza and the West Bank, and condemned its destruction of Palestinian heritage.

But we argue there’s something more troubling occurring – the erosion of UNESCO’s willingness and capacity to activate the legal and normative tools it helped build.

Once a mighty advocate for the protection of culture worldwide, UNESCO has slowly withered into a largely ineffective and technocratic agency that sidesteps complex issues and is hamstrung by internal division.

UNESCO’s response

In response to the arguments raised here, UNESCO sent a detailed email explaining its actions on heritage protection in Gaza. These are some of the points raised by a UNESCO spokesperson:

On citing the 1954 Hague Convention:

Across different conflicts, UNESCO sometimes explicitly cites the 1954 Hague Convention […] and in other instances use the broader formulation “international law”.

UNESCO also communicates with the concerned Member States bilaterally […] This has been done on several occasions through correspondence addressed to the authorities of Israel, for example to remind Israel of its obligations under the 1954 Hague Convention.

On explicitly naming Israel as a perpetrator:

UNESCO is not a judiciary body, therefore its role is not to assign responsibility. In specific case of Ukraine, there are several Security Council and/or UNESCO governing bodies decisions that may explain specific statements.

On the lack of willpower to use its tools and resources on Gaza:

UNESCO activates its legal, normative and programmatic tools within the remits of its mandate and available funds. The needs are enormous, and we take this opportunity to renew UNESCO’s call in support of the people of Gaza.

Why Gaza matters

UNESCO’s limited response to the destruction in Gaza matters. Heritage protection is not only about salvaging damaged sites and trying to rebuild them. It’s also vital for defining unacceptable conduct and deterring future violations.

When the world’s foremost body on the protection of cultural heritage limits itself to cautious generalities, it fosters a permissive environment. It allows this destruction to be treated as regrettable collateral damage of war, rather than an actionable crime. This undermines UNESCO’s credibility.

It can also set a dangerous precedent. If the large-scale destruction of heritage occurs in full view of the world, with no repercussions, future belligerents may believe the costs of heritage crimes will be tolerated.

The Conversation

Benjamin Isakhan has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the United Kingdom Research and Innovation fund, and the Australian Department of Defence.

Eleanor Childs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Gaza’s cultural sites have been decimated. UNESCO’s muted response sets a dangerous precedent – https://theconversation.com/gazas-cultural-sites-have-been-decimated-unescos-muted-response-sets-a-dangerous-precedent-275091

Is AI really ‘intelligent’? This philosopher says yes

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Jane Goodall, Emeritus Professor, Writing and Society Research Centre, Western Sydney University

Reconstruction of the ancient Antikythera mechanism, WA Museum, Boola Bardip. Chris Olszewski, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Anyone who engages in serious dialogue with a Large Language Model (LLM) may get the impression they are interacting with an intelligence. But many experts in the field argue the impression is just that. In philosopher Daniel Dennett’s words, such systems display “competence without comprehension”.

The hype about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) from big corporations and their celebrity spokespersons has prompted a backlash, in which scepticism turns to cynicism, often tinged with paranoia about how “stochastic parrots” may start to control our lives.

“Intelligence” itself has become an overheated topic, one that calls for less assertiveness, more cool thinking, and refreshed attempts at a starting point.


Review: What is Intelligence: Lessons from AI about Evolution, Computing, and Minds – Blaise Agüera y Arcus (MIT Press)


What Is Intelligence? by Google luminary Blaise Agüera y Arcus is the first book in a new series from MIT in collaboration with Antikythera, a think tank focused on “planetary-scale computation as a philosophical, technological, and geopolitical force”. A foreword from series editor Benjamin Bratton makes the bold claim that “computation is a technology to think with” and that the building blocks of our reality are themselves computational.

Blaise Agüera y Arcas.
Cmichel67, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Research on intelligence has a chequered history, tainted by eugenics, statistical manipulation and a banal obsession with metrics. Agüera y Arcas counters this by opening up the topic as wide as it can go. A physics graduate with a background in computational neuroscience, he is something of a polymath. He draws explanatory frameworks from microbiology, philosophy, linguistics, cybernetics, neuroscience and industrial history.

His book presents almost as a sequence of foundation lectures in these areas. Its release has been accompanied by dozens of online talks and interviews, in which Agüera y Arcas presents the case that we are up for a seismic shift in how we think about intelligence – biological and artificial.

“Few mainstream authors claim that AI is ‘real’ intelligence,” he writes. “I do.”

Could the nerds be right?

The fundamental case against the “I” in AI is that intelligence is organic, derived from sensory interaction with a physical environment. Agüera y Arcas turns the tables with the premise that computation is the substrate for intelligence in all life forms.

The claim builds on an apparently crude proposition: prediction is the fundamental principle behind intelligence and “may be the whole story”.

What he means by prediction here is something much more radical than what we see with autocorrect. He explains it in biological terms as a process of pattern development. Single cells like bacteria predict sequences of events that may influence their capacity for survival. The synaptic learning rules in single neurons give rise to local sequence prediction.

Agüera y Arcas recounts how his journey into the enigmatic terrain of AI reached a turning point with his counterintuitive recognition that “the nerds were right”: in computation, bigger really was better and might actually be the key to moving from Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) – the kind that can play chess – to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which can participate in a philosophical discussion.

Setting aside his contempt for the apparently simplistic dedication to scaling up, Agüera y Arcas returned to the biology lab for a reassessment of what was observable in living systems. If every form of life is an aggregation of cooperative parts, he reasoned, the evolution of cells into organs and organisms may be a matter of predictive modelling.

A central tenet of What is Intelligence? is that every form of life is an aggregation of cooperative parts. Links proliferate through patterns that enable increasingly complex functions. When Agüera y Arcas says the brain is computational, it’s not a metaphor: it is not that brains are like computers, they are computers.

Correlations between biological and mechanical forms of intelligence are his deep and abiding interest. What is Intelligence? follows What is Life?, a shorter book in which Agüera y Arcas lays the groundwork for this larger, more ambitious publication.

The two questions remain interwoven, if not fused, in his analysis, which draws on the foundational work of physicist Ewin Schrödinger, mathematicians Alan Turing, John von Neumann and Norbert Weiner, and microbiologist Lynn Margulis.

Alan Turing, one of the originators of modern thinking about artificial intelligence.
Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

These are the originators of modern thinking about artificial intelligence, and the quest for origins runs through all Agüera y Arcas’ lines of enquiry.

It is worth noting that Antikythera, the publishing series launched with this book, is named after an ancient device found in a shipwreck off the coast of Greece, which has been called the original analog computer.

Computation was discovered as much as it was invented, Bratton says in his foreword. This might apply to the Antikythera. If it is indeed the first computer, it was literally discovered at the bottom of an ocean.

But it corroborates Bratton’s statement in another sense. As a device for tracking astronomical phenomena, the Antikythera testifies to computation as an aspect of how the universe works.

Getting specific about origins

Agüera y Arcas wants to get more specific about origins. How does pattern emerge from randomness? How does code emerge from an unorganised soup of molecules?

In approaching these questions, he takes his cue from Turing and von Neumann, whose experiments anticipated the discovery of the molecular structure of DNA in 1953. The 1936 Turing machine established a minimalist prototype for computational function with the simple components of a coded tape and a read/write head. Von Neumann brought in a focus on embodied computation, where the components of the machine or body are part of what is written.

This is where Agüera y Arcas situates his work. His breakthrough came from adopting a programming language, devised in 1993, called “Brainfuck”. With just eight command symbols, Brainfuck set the parameters for a controlled experiment, in which Agüera y Arcas and his team used 64 byte tapes coded with “junk” drawn from a soup of code and data.

In the experiment, two tapes are selected at random, joined end to end, and run to test for interaction patterns. Then it’s rinse and repeat. The tapes are returned to the soup, and two more are run.

At first, nothing much shows up amidst the randomness. But after a million or so repeats (not massive in computing terms) the magic starts to happen. Loops appear. Patterns emerge. At around the five million mark, the non-functional code or “Turing gas” transforms itself into a “computorium” of replicating code.

In lectures, Agüera y Arcas shows a screenshot of this on his laptop: a vertical line down the centre of the field of data marks the “phase transition”. The image is reproduced on the cover of his book, as an emblem of the paradigm shift he is tracking.

If the transition to replicating code is indeed an expression of what is happening in the development of life forms, the theory of natural selection may lose its claim to primacy as the explanatory model for evolution. Richard Dawkins enthusiasts, hang on to your hats.

Agüera y Arcas does not engage in a polemical critique of Dawkins, but his book brings Margulis, an early adversary of Dawkins, into the centre of the arena. The pair faced off in a public debate in Oxford in 2009, where Dawkins’ popularised concept of the “selfish gene” came under pressure from Margulis’ theory of symbiogenesis, literally genesis through combination or fusion.

The Dawkins account is based on a Darwinian view of natural selection through competitive advantage; Margulis was drawing on research into the formation of microorganisms through combinations of mitochondria and chloroplasts, once independent life forms.

It was survival of the fittest versus a vision of biological complexity generated through endosymbiosis, a relationship in which one organism lives inside another, potentially resulting in a new life form – or, as Agüera y Arcas sees it, an impetus towards “fit” understood as pattern completion, rather than “fitness” understood as advantage.

Microbiologist Lynn Margulis was an early adversary of Richard Dawkins’ theory of the ‘selfish gene’.
Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

Prediction and function

Agüera y Arcas’ central concepts are prediction and function, which work together to explain intelligence as the development of functional complexity through predictive pattern completion.

He is erasing a familiar conceptual boundary here: intelligence does not prompt function, it is function.

Intelligence, he argues, is a property of systems rather than beings, and function is its primary indicator. A rock does not function, but a kidney does. This is demonstrated simply by cutting them in half. The rock becomes two rocks, but the kidney is no longer a kidney.

So does a kidney have intelligence? Or an amoeba? Or a leaf? These questions are opened up, along with the question of whether Large Language Models have intelligence, which may a better way to frame it than asking whether they are intelligent.

Agüera y Arcas is not alone in taking an affirmative position. Influential biologist Michael Levin runs a research laboratory at Tufts University, where he and his team study the functional correlations between natural organisms and synthetic or chimeric life forms in search of “intelligence behaviour in unfamiliar guises”.

Their declared goal is to develop modes of communication with truly diverse intelligences, including cells, tissues, organs, synthetic living constructs, robots and software-based AIs.

Such an approach steers a course between the stochastic parrots view and biologist Rupert Sheldrake’s theory of “morphic resonance,” which proposes that organic form is a manifestation of memory, resonating through generations as genetic heritage. Agüera y Arcas avoids both Sheldrake’s intuitive and telepathic orientations, and the hard-headed constraints of mechanistic determinism.

The thesis presented in What is Intelligence? is unfamiliar rather than intrinsically difficult. Much of the explanation is easy enough for the general reader to follow, though Agüera y Arcas has a tendency to veer into more the technical and abstract terrain of programming, as if addressing an insider audience. The extensive glossary does not include standard programming terms, such as logic gates, gradients, weights and backpropagation.

At over 600 pages, What is Intelligence? is a marathon read and it is encumbered by tangential excursions. I’m not sure why Agüera y Arcas needs to go into the history of industrialisation, or anthropological studies of the Pirahā people of the Amazon. This is a book for dipping into rather than swallowing whole.

But its ideas are important. They may well be part of a major transformation in our thinking about where human intelligence sits in the rapidly evolving environment of AI.

The Conversation

Jane Goodall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Is AI really ‘intelligent’? This philosopher says yes – https://theconversation.com/is-ai-really-intelligent-this-philosopher-says-yes-271721

Wuthering Heights looks lush – but it’s a bad film and a worse adaptation

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Benjamin D. Muir, Casual Academic, School of Humanities and Communication Arts, Western Sydney University

Photo Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures

Emily Brontë died of tuberculosis 177 years ago, yet this adaptation is still the worst thing that has ever happened to her.

This is how one Letterbox’d user described writer-director Emerald Fennell’s film adaptation of Brontë’s classic tale.

Reviews for the film are mixed at best. While some critics have praised the visuals, detractors return to the same argument: it is not a good adaptation.

Good adaptations take advantage of the affordances the cinematic medium provides, so some changes are permissible. Fennell goes well beyond this, altering essential characters, relationships and themes to the point that the film feels like erotic fan-fiction with a Hollywood budget.

To synopsise, Brontë’s story is a tragedy of intergenerational trauma. It follows Heathcliff, an abused serial abuser, and Catherine, an intergenerational manipulator. The pair’s toxic relationship – and mutual revenge on everyone they knew (beyond the grave in Catherine’s case) – wreaks havoc.

Visually loud, emotionally mute

Given its tagline “the greatest love story ever told”, Fennell’s film was destined to make some changes.

The frame narrative of the novel is missing. The novel is told through housekeeper Nelly Dean, who is recounting it to Heathcliff’s tenant, Lockwood. The film, meanwhile, starts in Catherine’s childhood and ends at her death.

This also means Fennell stops short of the final act of the novel. In doing so, she omits an entire generation of important characters on whom the original Catherine and Heathcliff – two traumatised, irredeemable wrecking balls – foist their damage.

The interpersonal dynamics that underpin Brontë’s story are warped into a vacuous caricature, missing the point with virtuosic flair. And make no mistake: there is flair. The visual design is bombastic, pointedly anachronistic, and utterly at odds with the novel’s gloomy Gothic countenance.

Film still: A woman and man sit in a lavish blue room adorned with Medusa heads and pearls, smiling and laughing while holding drinks.
The opulent, richly saturated sets veer sharply from Brontë’s bleak, wind-swept moors.
Photo Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures

Brontë’s perpetually grey and haunted moors are swapped for technicolour highlights, elaborate outfits and, at times, saturated tangerine sunsets. It watches like Sofia Coppola attempting Edgar Allan Poe – or a Charli XCX clip (guess who wrote the original soundtrack). This is an odd liberty for a film named after the story’s original setting – the stormy Wuthering Heights estate.

As pioneering Gothic theorists Sanda Gilbert and Susan Gubar write, the Heights in the novel are blanketed by “a general air of sour hatred” that manifests as “continual, aimless violence”.

In the Gothic, setting functions as a haunted presence that reflects the characters’ aberrant psychological states. The past haunts, even when there are no ghosts.

Fennell’s version retains the melodrama, but not the foreboding, hate and malice. And despite the explicit sexuality (none of which appears in the novel beyond euphemism), her take on the story feels oddly toothless. Neutered, even. It trades Gothic for vaudeville.

The erasure of Hindley and Heathcliff

To say the film lacks the novel’s social commentary is an understatement.

From the opening scene, the changes to the source material are clear. We see a young Catherine witnessing a hanged man with an erection – and this tone remains for the entire runtime.

Hindley – Catherine’s brother who forces Heathcliff into servitude, and is arguably the lynchpin of Heathcliff’s revenge – is also entirely absent from the film.

Literary critic Terry Eagleton notes how it is Hindley’s inherited status that enables his abuse of Heathcliff. It is Heathcliff’s lack of wealth, status and property that sees Catherine wed the wealthy Edgar Linton; and, as theorist Arnold Kettle argues, it is Heathcliff’s weaponisation of wealth and inheritance that finally serves as his vehicle for revenge.

To remove these factors is to remove the novel’s entire moral framework.

In the film, Heathcliff’s grievances shrink to Catherine choosing to marry Edgar Linton. This is as close as the film comes to the novel’s treatment of classism, racism and intergenerational trauma.

Likewise, ending on Catherine’s death erases the consequences of the deuteragonists’ manipulations – namely the suffering of their respective children and servants.

The casting of Jacob Elordi as Heathcliff has its own controversy. In the novel, Heathcliff’s ambiguous racial identity, within the context of Georgian England, shapes almost every interaction he has.

Even though it’s not clear what his racial identity is (some scholars point to hints that suggest he may have escaped from slavery), his character is defined by “othering”. This is something Elordi’s Heathcliff is at no risk of believably experiencing.

The film flattens the novel’s broader account of how trauma replicates across generations, and how systemic marginalisation can both attract and beget abuse.

Film still: A brooding man wearing a Georgian-style three-piece suit, with his arm outstretched on an antique sofa.
Jacob Elordi’s casting sidesteps the racialised marginalisation central to Heathcliff’s character.
Photo Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures

On abuse – perhaps Fennell’s strangest departure from the source material is reframing Heathcliff’s treatment of Isabella (Edgar Linton’s sister and later Heathcliff’s wife) as a consensual BDSM dynamic.

Brontë’s Heathcliff terrorises Isabella physically and emotionally, and implicitly sexually, until she flees with their son.

The switch from repressed, complex desire in the novel to explicit sex scenes (absent from the book), and the rewriting of abuse as kink, seems to cater to audiences raised on post-50 Shades Of Grey erotica rather than Victorian Gothic.

Literary classics for a Tiktok generation

Like 2020’s colourful Austen adaptation, Emma (well received as a film, but criticised as an adaptation), Fennell’s Wuthering Heights signals a trend towards the “tiktokification” of literary adaptations.

Hollywood has long taken liberties with books, but this recent wave feels engineered for clips, reels and virality, rather than the necessary sacrifices of adaptation.

We know it’s possible to have adaptations with both flair and substance. Consider Baz Luhrmann. The Oscar-nominated Romeo + Juliet (1996) is just as visually bombastic, yet the extent of verbatim Shakespeare retains a dedication to the source that Fennell’s film lacks.

So what does it have to offer? Virality. Even this article contributes to the internet firestorm that will ensure Wuthering Heights’ commercial success. It will ragebait critics far longer than such a limp effort deserves – and we are all its victims.

The Conversation

Benjamin D. Muir does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Wuthering Heights looks lush – but it’s a bad film and a worse adaptation – https://theconversation.com/wuthering-heights-looks-lush-but-its-a-bad-film-and-a-worse-adaptation-276179

Trump hikes global tariffs to 15% as the fallout from Supreme Court loss continues

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Felicity Deane, Professor of Trade Law and Taxation, Queensland University of Technology

US President Donald Trump has announced the United States will increase baseline tariffs on imports from all countries to 15%, as the fallout continues from a seismic Supreme Court ruling on Friday.

Trump had imposed sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” last year under an emergency powers act, but the court ruled this law did not authorise him to do so.

Speaking in the wake of the ruling on Friday, Trump admonished the justices of the Supreme Court. He called the Democratic justices who ruled against the tariffs a “disgrace to the nation”.

He also said he felt “ashamed” of members of the court he considered conservative who had voted against his use of emergency powers.

Trump’s statement was riddled with insults and inaccuracies. However, he admitted he had tried to “make things simple” by using the emergency powers act. He went on to say he does have other options, but those options would take more time. This was one part of his speech that was indeed accurate.

With the clock already ticking on his landmark trade agenda, and the multi-billion dollar question of refunds looming, what might Trump do next? Here’s what could now be in store for both Australia and the world.




Read more:
Supreme Court rules against Trump’s emergency tariffs – but leaves key questions unanswered


Scrambling for alternatives

The new 15% rate is an increase on the 10% global baseline tariff enacted shortly after the ruling using a different law, and will hit some Australian exports.

This part of the law has never been used. However, it appears to clearly allow the president to impose tariffs of up to 15%, and for a period of no more than 150 days.

But Trump said during this five-month period, his administration would investigate the use of yet another law, section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

This section does allow the president to impose tariffs in response to foreign countries who violate US rights under international trade agreements, or that burden or restrict US commerce in “unjustifiable”, “unreasonable” or “discriminatory” ways. However, it requires some steps to be followed.

The process for using this law is detailed and cannot be subverted. It would likely take either years or vast amounts of resources to introduce tariffs that were anywhere near the “Liberation Day” tariffs.

If nothing else, it requires consultations with the countries upon whose goods those tariffs will be imposed.

Section 301 has previously been used to impose tariffs on China, following an investigation by the United States Trade Representative in 2018.

Another option

Another avenue for the president to bypass Congress is a specific section of a different law, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, that applies to a particular sector of the economy.

This is the power used to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium in the first Trump administration in 2018.

However, it can’t be used to recreate sweeping tariffs on all foreign imports. This provision is generally product-specific and requires an investigation into the national security threat.

Its use to impose steel and aluminium tariffs has been challenged by multiple trading partners at the World Trade Organization. A panel of experts ruled the US had used a special national security exception erroneously.

However, despite this violation, Trump has suggested that he isn’t bound by international law.

The question of refunds

The Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday means all tariffs introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawfully collected.

If all collected duties are refunded, it’s estimated the total repayment could reach approximately US$175 billion (A$247 billion).

Much to the president’s frustration, there was no clarity within the Supreme Court’s ruling on the process for refunds of illegally collected tariffs.

That silence, which prompted Trump to refer to the decision as “terrible” and “defective”, was likely because this would be handled by other courts.

Back in December, the US Court of International Trade stated it would have the authority to order reliquidation and refunds of the sweeping tariffs if the Supreme Court ultimately ruled them unlawful.

Many large companies had already anticipated this ruling, and acted to get on the front foot. For example, in late November, large retailer Costco sued the Trump administration to secure a full refund of tariffs in the event the Supreme Court deemed them unlawful.

In late December, faced with an avalanche of similar cases, the Court of International Trade temporarily halted all cases where companies were claiming relief from IEEPA tariffs ahead of the Supreme Court’s ruling.

Refunds may not be straightforward

Some importers have argued that because the tariff payments were itemised, receiving refunds should not be messy.

But the process for refunds may not be as straightforward as it should be. Trump suggested they could be “in court for the next five years”.

What does this all mean for Australia?

Australia’s previous 10% rate was much lower than many other nations, but now at 15% the playing field has been levelled – at least for the next 150 days.

Australian exporters don’t pay these tariffs directly themselves, but may be pressured to absorb some of the cost, and it makes their imports less competitive in the US market.

However, not all Australian exporters are in the same position. The proclamation issued by the White House listed some exceptions, including beef, critical minerals, energy products and pharmaceuticals.

At Friday’s press conference, Trump said “great certainty” had been brought back to the United States and the world. In truth, the uncertainty is far from over.

The Conversation

Felicity Deane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Trump hikes global tariffs to 15% as the fallout from Supreme Court loss continues – https://theconversation.com/trump-hikes-global-tariffs-to-15-as-the-fallout-from-supreme-court-loss-continues-273105

Government has halted controversial policy of destroying court records, investigation reveals

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Brian Thornton, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, University of Winchester

Alexander Supertramp/Shutterstock

A controversial policy of destroying recordings of trials after seven years is to be abandoned, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has disclosed.

The policy, affecting courts in England and Wales, had been heavily criticised by lawyers and miscarriage of justice campaigners, who said the destruction of court records makes challenging a conviction almost impossible.

They point to cases like Omar Benguit – now the subject of a BBC Panorama investigation – where vital court records were erased.

Benguit’s legal team claim the transcripts from his three trials would have provided invaluable evidence for an appeal – but all were destroyed before they could be examined.

As a journalism lecturer carrying out research into court reporting, as well as miscarriages of justice, I was keen to investigate, and requested more information from the MoJ through Freedom of Information requests.

In its responses to me, the MoJ publicly disclosed for the first time that trial records will now be kept for at least as long as the prison sentence – and possibly indefinitely.


The Insights section is committed to high-quality longform journalism. Our editors work with academics from many different backgrounds who are tackling a wide range of societal and scientific challenges.


An MoJ spokesperson said: “This updated policy safeguards continued access to court records for the purpose of appeals, reviews or any other legal proceedings that may arise during the entire period of the sentence.

“Retaining records for the full length of the sentence preserves judicial integrity, and protects the rights of all parties concerned.”

Campaigners who fought for years to halt the policy of destroying court records have welcomed the announcement. Jon Robins, a lecturer at Brighton University and co-organiser of the Open Justice Charter, told me:

This is a sensible result – and a surprising and belated victory for our campaign. We pointed out more than a decade ago that there was no possible justification for such a draconian destruction policy, ever since our courts were dragged into the digital era and began recording proceedings – other than closing off the prospect of challenges from those claiming to be wrongly convicted.

The unnecessary loss of court documents – especially, court transcripts and the audio recordings of court proceedings – has often proved an insurmountable barrier in the investigation of miscarriage of justice cases.

The official guidance for how long records should be retained is set out in the crown court’s Record Retention and Disposition Schedule (RRDS). This currently states that the recordings of crown court trials should be “kept for seven years and then destroyed”.

The MoJ confirmed to me that this policy has now been scrapped. It stated that “effective from October 9 2023 onwards”, staff had been instructed to apply the following retention periods for crown court audio recordings:

  • One year for not-guilty verdicts;
  • Seven years for non-custodial sentences;
  • At least seven years or the sentence length for custodial sentences (whichever is longer);
  • And 99 years for life imprisonment.

The MoJ said it will officially publish this updated guidance in the new RRDS later this year.

End of a ‘reckless’ policy

For many years, the policy of destroying recordings of trials attracted a great deal of public criticism.

In January 2016, a letter was sent to the then secretary of state for justice, Michael Gove, urging him to change the policy. The letter – signed by 35 lawyers, academics and campaigners – said: “In this digital age, it is both reckless and irresponsible to systematically destroy the record of court proceedings.”

A pile of papers next to scraps from destroyed documents
The change in policy is a win for campaigners against miscarriages of justice.
Pawel Kacperek/Shutterstock

In October 2016, Jerry Buting, the American attorney whose defence of Steven Avery featured in the Netflix docuseries Making A Murderer, told The Justice Gap that destroying recordings of court proceedings was “absolutely ludicrous”, adding: “Digital recordings take virtually no space. There is no excuse for the courts to not store forever – at least as long as the defendant is alive.”

A later campaign called Open Justice Charter (OJC) also highlighted the destruction of court records as a key failing in the justice system, stating: “No recordings of criminal court proceedings should be destroyed until at least seven years after the end of the prison term and any post-release licence period imposed.”

What was heard by the jury?

The key concern for those criticising the policy was what they saw as the deleterious affect it was having on those trying to challenge a conviction.

The way the appeal system works is that if a prisoner wants to challenge their conviction, they need to apply to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) in order to be allowed to take their case to the Court of Appeal.




Read more:
The miscarriage of justice watchdog is failing at its only job – here’s how to fix it


The CCRC will not refer the case unless there is “fresh evidence” – something new which the original jury did not hear. And so, for someone who believes they have been wrongly convicted, their starting point will be to identify exactly what was heard by the jury.

For the prisoner and their legal team, this means getting access to the transcriptions of the trial. Without these, they risk submitting an application based on evidence that is not considered new, or omitting evidence that could be highly significant.

Some applications to the CCRC may come many years – even decades – after trials have happened, meaning that not even the prisoner will be able to fully remember what happened in court. For example, one miscarriage of justice victim, Peter Sullivan, was freed 38 years after a jury wrongly convicted him.

Leading legal figures such as Michael Mansfield KC, who acted for the Hillsborough families, has argued that the destruction of records hugely disadvantages those seeking justice. He told The Guardian: “Equally important is access to the record of proceedings and case documentation, without which injustice can be washed away.”

Emily Bolton, who founded Appeal, the charity and law practice dedicated to challenging wrongful convictions, also described the destruction of court records as “a complete roadblock to investigating miscarriages of justice”. She added: “What is the British system afraid of? It’s a public trial, and there should be an accessible record of it.”

More groundbreaking than it first appears

Despite all of this, the MoJ took years to revise the policy. In response to my FoI requests, it explained the decision had nothing to do with the criticism it had received:

The change from ‘seven years to seven years or the life of the sentence’ was driven by new legislation (at the time) called The Parole Board Rules 2019. Those revisions were of particular importance so as to ensure that audio records remain accessible for the entire duration of a custodial sentence, particularly when the sentence exceeds seven years.

But a close analysis of the MoJ’s responses to the FoI requests reveals something intriguing – that the change may be far more groundbreaking than it first appears.

While the MoJ may be reluctant to spell it out explicitly, it appears that the official policy has quietly moved from a position of court records being routinely destroyed, to one where they will now be retained indefinitely. And the reason for this is not legal or political – but purely down to technology.

The destruction of court records was really a legacy of the analogue age; a time when stenographers quietly tapped away in court and any recordings were kept on physical tapes.

In 2012, all of that was swept away when proceedings in crown courts began to be recorded by the Digital Audio Recording Transcription and Storage (Darts) system, meaning there was no longer any need to physically store recordings on tape, and therefore no logistical reason to destroy them.

So, while the new policy dictates that records will be retained for at least as long as the prison sentence, the new technology has essentially removed the need or justification for ever deleting any more court records. The MoJ came very close to admitting this to me when it said: “Crown court audio recordings are retained within HMCTS Digital Audio Recording Transcription and Storage system. To date, none of these court audio recordings have been deleted.”

If the Darts system had been storing recordings since 2012, and the MoJ policy was to destroy recordings after seven years, then they should have started erasing cases since 2019.

Significant costs

While the change is very significant and should dramatically improve access to court records, one critical barrier remains.

While the audio recording of the trial may now exist, it is not possible – except in very limited circumstances – to listen to it, so it must be professionally transcribed. And this can prove to be very – even prohibitively – expensive.

In 2023, MP Sarah Olney revealed that a rape victim had been charged £7,500 for a transcript of her assailant’s trial. And former government minister David Davis told parliament in 2024 he had been quoted £100,000 for a transcript of the Lucy Letby trial at Manchester Crown Court.

Many victims, particularly those who suffered sexual violence, are now calling for transcriptions of trials to be made free. This new campaign echoes an argument that miscarriage of justice campaigners like Bolton were making a decade ago. She said in 2016:

In this country, the system was privatised, and now profit-driven transcription firms hold justice to ransom, demanding thousands of pounds to provide sections of transcript of a trial. Neither the Legal Aid system nor individual prisoners or their families can afford this, and so the recordings languish unreviewed, and the system goes unaudited.

Robins told me: “The next step for accountability in our courts is to make the audio recordings or transcripts of proceedings available at an accessible price. In an era when there are free AI transcription services, these costs make no sense.”

The decision by the MoJ to stop destroying recordings of trials means that court records will now be available – as long as someone can afford them. It brings to mind the quip by 19th-century judge James Mathew, who said that “in England, justice is open to all – like the Ritz Hotel”.


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Brian Thornton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Government has halted controversial policy of destroying court records, investigation reveals – https://theconversation.com/government-has-halted-controversial-policy-of-destroying-court-records-investigation-reveals-276418