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March 23, 2026

Over 400 million barrels will be added to the oil market soon – what are strategic reserves and what can they do?

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer in International Studies, University of Washington

The world is about to open up reserve oil supplies. Photo illustration by PashaIgnatov/iStock/Getty Images Plus

In the second week of the Iran war – with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, cutting off shipping of 20% of the world’s oil supply – the International Energy Agency announced the largest release of strategic oil reserves in history. Thirty-two countries will sell a combined 412 million barrels from their reserves into the global market over four months, beginning in late March 2026.

Energy researchers like me know that the concept of a strategic oil stock goes back to the early 20th century, when the U.S. Navy first substituted oil for coal as a fuel for ships. Starting in 1912, Congress set aside several petroleum-rich areas in the U.S., including Elk Hills in California and Teapot Dome in Wyoming. In times of need, oil wells could be drilled in those regions to produce fuel for the Navy.

The current system involves oil that has already been produced and is stored so it can enter the market quickly. That approach was created by the International Energy Agency soon after its founding in the wake of the 1973-74 oil crisis. At that time, Arab nations in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut exports by as much as 25% to protest U.S. and other countries’ support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Global oil prices soared by over 350%, the equivalent today of US$70 – the price before Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran on Feb. 28, 2026 – jumping to $245.

Now, strategic reserves are a system of national oil stocks intended to replace at least 90 days of each country’s imports. In some cases, such as Japan, the reserve covers over 200 days. The 415 million barrels in the U.S. reserve as of March 13, 2026, covers only about 64 days.

A close-up photo of a gas pump shows prices above $4 per gallon — Gas prices have climbed since the U.S. attacked Iran.
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

What is the purpose of strategic oil reserves?

These reserves have a twofold purpose: to replace a portion of the disrupted supply and to moderate the resulting increase in prices.

In cases of a major loss to world supply, the International Energy Agency will propose a coordinated release from member countries. There have been five such releases, most recently in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused oil prices to go above $120.

Together, members hold government stockpiles of about 1.2 billion barrels, with another 600 million barrels stored by private industry. The United States’ expected contribution of 172 million barrels is nearly half of the upcoming release.

To fill the U.S. reserve, the U.S. Department of Energy buys oil on the open market, using money funded by past sales and congressional appropriations. When releasing oil from the reserve, it sells to the highest bidder on the regular oil market, just like any other oil producer. Ideally, the reserve buys oil when the price is low and sells it at times of emergency when prices are high – though presidents of both parties have been accused of ordering oil releases for political gains rather than strictly economic reasons.

What can a major release from these reserves achieve?

Strategic releases are a short-term way to lessen the shock of an immediate supply loss.

A release provides a certain number of barrels – in the current case, perhaps 3 million to 4 million barrels per day – for a period of a few months.

But that amount is not enough to replace the roughly 10 million barrels per day or more now held back by the closed Strait of Hormuz.

My own study of the history of U.S. releases suggests, however, that a release can prevent prices from climbing to extreme levels at an early stage and staying there. That is because oil prices are mainly determined by futures contracts – legally binding agreements to buy or sell a quantity of oil at an agreed price for delivery one to three months in the future.

If oil buyers and sellers know additional oil will be released to the market in that period, they will likely agree to a lower price. So the strategic release temporarily moderates price increases.

What about the US reserve?

A map with red dots showing locations of SPR spots. — The map shows the locations of the oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Department of Energy

Congress created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975. Its oil is stored underground in a series of large salt domes in four locations across the Gulf Coast, in Texas and Louisiana.

Congress originally said the reserve should hold up to 1 billion barrels of crude and refined petroleum products. Though it has never reached that size, the U.S. reserve was until 2025 the largest in the world, with a maximum volume of 713.5 million barrels.

Over the past decade, however, China has aggressively expanded its own stocks to an estimated 1.4 billion barrels. Such an enormous volume can be viewed as a sign of Beijing’s deep concern about oil security, as China relies on imports to supply more than 70% of its consumption.

In mid-March 2026, meanwhile, the U.S. reserve was only 60% full at 415 million barrels. In 2022, the Biden administration released 180 million barrels in response to the price jump caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. An analysis by the U.S. Treasury Department concluded the release did reduce market volatility and lower prices at the pump by up to 30 to 40 cents per gallon. Nonetheless, it has not been a priority under the Biden or Trump administrations to refill the reserve.

As a result, the release of 172 million barrels recently ordered by the White House will temporarily shrink the U.S. reserve to 243 million barrels – only 34% of its capacity. That level is its lowest since the early 1980s.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright has said plans are in place to add 200 million barrels back later in 2026. But doing so would return the reserve only to the pre-war stock level.

Risk or reward?

Nonetheless, the oil shock that has happened as a result of the Iran war has proven that the idea of strategic reserves is still relevant. Though the process of how it is utilized can be debated, having emergency stocks of a vital resource subject to supply crises can hardly be called irrational.

In the early days of the war, the White House said there was no reason for a release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

But only days later, the administration changed its mind, reportedly because President Donald Trump saw oil prices soaring and remaining elevated.

But, as noted, this withdrawal will leave the U.S. and other nations in a highly vulnerable position. Additional price increases – like those that have occurred because of attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities, production, and shipment locations – could well lead to a second call from the International Energy Agency to release oil from the world’s remaining reserves.

Scott L. Montgomery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Over 400 million barrels will be added to the oil market soon – what are strategic reserves and what can they do? – https://theconversation.com/over-400-million-barrels-will-be-added-to-the-oil-market-soon-what-are-strategic-reserves-and-what-can-they-do-278370

March 23, 2026

How the words that Iran and America use about each other paved the way for conflict

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Trang Chu, Associate Fellow, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford

The conflict between the US – and its partner Israel – and Iran was nearly half a century in the making. Many explanations have been offered: strategic miscalculation, nuclear brinkmanship, regional rivalry and the failure of deterrence of Iran’s nuclear programme. But there is also the nature of the language through which each side has come to perceive the other.

Over 47 years, the language on each side has progressively hardened from assessments of behaviour into verdicts about the moral nature of each side’s adversary. It not only describes the enemy, but actively participates in creating it.

The language of American enmity towards Iran did not begin as a full moral verdict. In the 1980s and 1990s, Iran’s clerical leadership appeared in western media and policy discourse as the “mad mullahs”. It was a label that personalised the conflict and cast Iranian leaders as irrational rather than simply hostile. By the 1990s, the “rogue state” frame took hold, still defining Iran by its behaviour rather than its nature: a rogue, in principle, could change course.

A significant shift occurred in January 2002 when George W. Bush designated Iran as part of the “axis of evil”. His speechwriter David Frum later recalled drafting “axis of hatred”, but Bush insisted on using “evil” instead. This choice was unsurprising, as Bush’s was widely seen a “faith-based” presidency, influenced by deeply internalised evangelical Christianity.

By February 2026, the vocabulary had reached its most extreme register. Donald Trump described Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as “one of the most evil people in history”, killed along with “his gang of bloodthirsty THUGS”. In a video posted on his Truth Social, Trump explained the collapse of negotiations by stating that Iran’s leaders “just wanted to practise evil”. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, invoked the Book of Esther, equating the Iranian leadership with Haman — the inherently evil villain of Jewish scripture. He framed the operation as the fulfilment of a 2,500-year moral obligation.

Iran had its own vocabulary, with roots that were theological before becoming political. The designation of America by the Islamic Republic’s first supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as the “Great Satan” drew on the Quranic figure of shaitan ar-rajim (accursed one/outcast devil). It eventually became a category through which American actions – the 1953 coup and decades of support for the deposed shah — were interpreted. The term also served a domestic purpose: the Great Satan depicted any Iranian advocate of rapprochement as a collaborator with Satan. This made moderation seem less like a policy dispute and more like a form of moral treason.

When Bush named Iran in his axis of evil, a parallel mechanism emerged on the other side. Political analysts found Iranian elites overwhelmingly viewed the designation as a boon for conservative factions in Iran – the metaphor appearing to reinforce the intransigence it claimed to criticise. Over the following two decades, Tehran increasingly framed its regional alignment as an axis of resistance: a loosely connected network of allied movements presented not as acts of aggression but as heroic solidarity against a cosmic aggressor.

What stands out across this arc is a pattern of accumulation. Each new label — Great Satan, mad mullahs, rogue state, axis of evil, axis of resistance — added another layer to the adversary’s story, making it progressively more resistant to revision. Both sides converged on the same device, each attributing a corrupted moral nature to the other, an entity whose soul was the central issue.

A soul to condemn

National anthropomorphism — the metaphorical attribution of human traits to a nation-state — is a common feature of political language. “Mother Russia”, “Uncle Sam”, and “Homeland-Mother China” each give the country a face, a will and a singular identity that can be addressed, celebrated or defended. Such figures allow citizens to experience attachment, obligation and hurt as if directed toward a single person.

However, labels such as “Great Satan”, “the Global Arrogance”, “mad mullahs”, and “gang of bloodthirsty thugs” serve a fundamentally different purpose. They moralise and condemn a nation’s soul itself. The moment a nation is characterised as evil rather than as an adversary, it drifts out of the realm of diplomacy altogether.

The framings were not just hostile but asymmetrical, with clear geopolitical implications. Iran’s language depicted the US as untrustworthy yet highly capable – powerful, calculating, world‑devouring. This portrays an adversary whose strengths you resent and feel compelled to match. It carries an emotional logic of envy in the technical sense – a rivalrous resentment towards an opponent you tacitly admit is formidable. Seen through such a lens, Iran’s nuclear ambitions appear less as pure aggression and more as an effort to close a capability gap with an opponent whose strength its own rhetoric acknowledges.

The US framing attributes untrustworthiness and malevolent incompetence to Iran. They are a country of mad mullahs, a rogue state, a gang of bloodthirsty thugs whose leaders “just wanted to practise evil”. This does not sketch a formidable rival – it conjures something menacing in intent yet incapable of reason, operating below the threshold of rational calculation. Groups framed in this manner tend to elicit contempt. An enemy framed as contemptuous is less likely to register as an adversary that can be deterred and more likely to appear as a problem to be removed.

Its members cease to exist as reasoning agents. Their stated aims are no longer believed, their experiences no longer imagined and their inner life no longer granted as grounds for negotiation.

When that perception becomes embedded within political leadership, the arguments for engagement with the adversary start to disintegrate.

What the words have led to

The US-Israeli strikes happened in the middle of active diplomacy, not after its failure. Iran had proposed a pause on enrichment and zero stockpiling. But within a framework that had spent 47 years defining Iran’s nature rather than its behaviour as the key issue, no such proposal could be seen as genuine by Washington. When a nation’s nature is repeatedly portrayed as irredeemably evil, what it does at the negotiating table becomes insignificant. The nature precedes the behaviour, and no behaviour can change it.

To each side, the identity judgements of nearly half a century have become almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Each side will interpret what follows as confirmation of what it has always believed. That is what 47 years of presupposed moral condemnation can become: a frame so absolute and impenetrable that the violence it accompanies becomes a vindication.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How the words that Iran and America use about each other paved the way for conflict – https://theconversation.com/how-the-words-that-iran-and-america-use-about-each-other-paved-the-way-for-conflict-279015

March 23, 2026

US attacks on Cuban medical missions risk damaging healthcare for poor people in developing countries

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helen Yaffe, Lecturer in Economic and Social History, University of Glasgow

Cuban doctors who worked in Mexico during the height of the COVID pandemic return to Havana. Yandry_kw/Shutterstock

There were tearful scenes in the central American nation of Honduras on February 23, as locals said goodbye to the Cuban healthcare professionals who had been treating them for free for around two years. It came after the Honduran government abruptly ended the Cuban medical mission under pressure from the administration of the US president, Donald Trump.

That same day, a “sensitive” US State Department memo was sent to the secretary of state, Marco Rubio. It discussed the US strategy to sabotage Cuba’s medical internationalism, which has been an integral part of the island nation’s foreign policy since 1960. In recent years it has also become a key pillar of its economy.

The US has imposed unilateral sanctions on Cuba for more than 60 years. These prevent Cuba from engaging in “normal” international trade – for example, third parties cannot sell goods to Cuba if 10% of their components are from US companies or subsidiaries. And Cuba cannot export goods to the US. On top of that, the US blockade severely restricts Cuba’s access to the international financial system.

In this context, the export of medical professionals has become vital to the Cuban economy. For decades the Cuban government sent medical missions around the world as a donation to developing nations. But over the past two decades, it has developed cooperation agreements under which governments or local authorities pay the Cuban government for the medical services of its healthcare professionals.

Attacking that revenue looks to be a key component of the US push for regime change in Cuba by the end of the year. This is alongside the total oil blockade imposed by Trump’s executive order on January 29, which has now caused multiple national blackouts that have left the entire island in the dark.

It is a policy of carrots and sticks. Countries kicking out Cuban medics are offered US support for “infrastructure modernisation” – things like telemedicine and virtual training. A year earlier, Rubio had announced visa restrictions for current and former officials and their families from anywhere in the world who took part in Cuban programmes.

By mid-March this year, neighbouring governments fell into line. Guatemala, Paraguay, the Bahamas, Guyana and Jamaica terminated Cuban medical missions, ending decades of cooperation. In Guatemala, more than 400 Cuban healthcare professionals, most of them doctors, are serving indigenous communities under a three decades-long partnership. The last doctors will leave by the end of the year.

Cuban doctors leaving Honduras in February 2026.

The US government’s attack on Cuban medical internationalism is not new. It began in 2006, the year after the oil-for-doctors programme between Cuba and Venezuela transformed the export of healthcare professionals into Cuba’s greatest revenue source.

US policy sought to eliminate this income and undermine the prestige the programmes earned the island. The then US president, George W Bush, set up the Cuban Medical Professional Parole (CMPP) Program, encouraging Cuban medics abroad to abandon missions and defect to the US. The programme was ended only in 2017, in Barack Obama’s final days as president.

Despite this, and reflecting the deficit in healthcare globally, Cuba’s earnings from the export of healthcare services rose. Revenues in 2018 (the first year Cuba published separate data for health services) were US$6.4 billion (£4.8 billion). Trump’s first administration developed policies, and funding, to sabotage these programmes.

Cuba’s bill of health

It also devised a new justification for doing this. The US government could not openly demand that countries sacrifice the health and wellbeing of their populations just to deny Cuba revenue. So instead, it accused Cuba of human trafficking and equated its healthcare professionals to slaves.

Anyone who has spoken to Cuban participants – as I have – knows the overseas service contracts they sign provide them with their regular Cuban salary, plus extra remuneration from the host country. They are guaranteed holidays and contact with families.

Even with tens of thousands of medical workers overseas, the state’s investment in healthcare and medical training means that the Cuban population has the highest ratio of doctors per person in the world. In 2022, it was said to have nine doctors and nine nurses for every 1,000 citizens. In the US, there are 2.6 doctors per 1,000 citizens and in the UK the figure is 3.2.

For many Cuban healthcare professionals, it signifies the fulfilment of an internationalist duty; for others a way to travel or increase their income. The Cuban government takes the lion’s share of revenues and puts them back into Cuba’s universal free public healthcare provision and medical training.

But under Trump’s second administration, Rubio, the son of Cuban migrants who left the island during the Batista dictatorship, has spearheaded a renewed attack on the island’s international medical programmes. The recent State Department memo stated that Cuban medical brigades were a key source of “hard cash” for the regime.

The four forms of Cuban medical internationalism practices established in the 1960s are:

emergency medical brigades overseas
treatment of foreign patients in Cuba
training foreign students as healthcare professionals, and,
establishment of public healthcare facilities overseas.

This contribution to developing nations has often been ignored or censored. But it translates into millions of lives saved and improved globally every year. Sabotaging medical internationalism would devastate Cuba. But it would also leave millions of people around the world without the vital medical attention that they had previously enjoyed.

Helen Yaffe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. US attacks on Cuban medical missions risk damaging healthcare for poor people in developing countries – https://theconversation.com/us-attacks-on-cuban-medical-missions-risk-damaging-healthcare-for-poor-people-in-developing-countries-278748

March 23, 2026

Why the damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure could push costs higher for years to come

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adi Imsirovic, Lecturer in Energy Systems, University of Oxford

Qatar’s Ras Laffan “energy city” was hit by Iranian strikes. PaPicasso/Shutterstock

On March 19, Ras Laffan, the largest liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal in the world, supplying one-fifth of the world’s super-chilled fuel, was hit by Iranian missiles and drones. The Qatari terminal suffered substantial damage in the strikes – fires were raging across the gas-to-liquids facility within the complex, which covers 295 square kilometres – the size of a large city.

Investments worth tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars disappeared into thin air. Damage was estimated to be so extensive that QatarEnergy’s CEO, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, said the company may have to declare a “force majeure” (non-fulfilment of orders due to circumstances outside their control) on long-term contracts. He said this could affect LNG supplies to Italy, Belgium, Korea and China “for up to five years”.

Similar to oil, gas exports from the Persian Gulf supplied about 20% of world demand. But gas (mostly methane) is a very different fuel from crude oil. To move it in liquified form, methane must be chilled to below -162°C.

But at these temperatures steel becomes brittle and shatters. So storing and transporting LNG in ships is expensive and very energy-intensive. Liquefaction and transportation of methane can easily consume 15% of the initial natural gas extracted.

It also means that the infrastructure that enables a highly flammable and explosive fuel to be handled at these extreme conditions has to be complex and consequently very expensive. Ras Laffan, for example, was built over decades and in several phases, costing tens of billions of dollars.

No quick fix

Interestingly, Qatar’s North Field and Iran’s South Pars gas field are part of the same massive geological structure, separated only by a maritime border in the Persian Gulf. Together, they form the world’s largest natural gas field.

So, Iran and Qatar are essentially exploiting the same gas reservoir the same way two people would use straws to drink from the same bottle. The US president, Donald Trump, now appears to have retreated from his threats to blow up “the entirety” of the Iranian gas field – but this geological fact had always made his comments quite ridiculous.

While Qatar exports most of its production, Iran uses the bulk of its gas domestically (although some exports go via pipeline to Turkey and Iraq).

But the damage to the complex has been done, and it affects some 17% of the country’s LNG infrastructure. Repairing it will take a long time, precisely because of the complexity of LNG projects.

The plant must be warmed up slowly before repairs and cooled down slowly after. Rapid temperature changes can cause pipes to bend or even snap. And parts of the plant are bulky and hard to transport. The main heat exchangers can be more than 50 metres long, and compressors, turbines and liquefaction trains can easily weigh 5,000 metric tonnes. Storage tanks must be built of special alloys with double walls and customised insulation.

In other words, gas is very different to oil. Recent events have shown just how vulnerable the LNG supplies from the Gulf region are. They are going to affect Asia most, as about three-quarters of Qatar’s LNG ends up there – particularly China, India, Taiwan, South Korea and Pakistan, as well as others.

Most of the rest ends up in Europe – Italy, Belgium, Poland and a small amount to the UK (the UK imported only about 1% of its supply from Qatar last year). The majority of the UK’s imports come from its own UK production in the North Sea and imports from Norway and the US.

However, LNG is a part of the global energy market and the shortfall in production will result in higher prices globally. Gas will end up with the highest bidder, while some nations will probably go back to using coal. This may especially be the case with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and a few other Asian countries that are very sensitive to high fuel prices.

Some European countries may even see coal as a cheaper option. Following the events in the Gulf, this “spark spread” (the profit margin from gas-fired electricity generation) has fallen, narrowing the gap in Europe with the “dark spread” (profit from generating power using coal).

The benchmark for European gas prices, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, has more than doubled since mid-January. Coal prices have picked up due to higher demand, but not as much. Unlike oil, the LNG shortage has turned from a logistical problem – the closure of the strait of Hormuz – into a structural one. The damage to the Qatari production facility may take several years to repair. This means that gas prices – already high – are likely to remain elevated for some time.

Adi Imsirovic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why the damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure could push costs higher for years to come – https://theconversation.com/why-the-damage-to-qatars-gas-infrastructure-could-push-costs-higher-for-years-to-come-278943

March 23, 2026

Canada’s migratory caribou are under threat. Will we act before it’s too late?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Benjamin Larue, Faculty Affiliate in Wildlife Biology, University of Montana

Delegates are gathering in Campo Grande, Brazil, for the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) on the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals. The meeting aims to address growing threats to migratory animals — from birds and whales to large land mammals.

The outcome could matter for caribou — one of Canada’s most recognizable wildlife species, immortalized on the country’s 25-cent quarters. Canada has not ratified the convention, but COP15 still matters here: it sets global norms and shines an international spotlight on a crisis unfolding in Canada’s North.

Every year, migratory tundra caribou travel hundreds — sometimes thousands — of kilometres across the Arctic and subarctic. These journeys are the longest known terrestrial migrations on Earth.

a silver 25 cent coin featuring a caribou with antlers — One side of the Canadian 25-cent coin featuring a caribou.
(Royal Canadian Mint)

As large herds of caribou migrate between the boreal forest in winter and the tundra in summer, they move nutrients across vast landscapes and shape vegetation, soils and food webs.

Their migrations also sustain Indigenous cultures and ways of life across the Arctic. For Inuit in Kugluktuk, caribou are part of a relationship of respect and reciprocity that supports physical, cultural and spiritual well-being. Generations of lived experience on the land have produced an deep understanding of caribou.

But today, caribou migrations are in peril. Once numbering around 470,000 animals, the Bathurst caribou herd has collapsed by more than 99 per cent since the 1980s. Today, only about 3,600 remain.

Within a single human lifetime, one of the great migrations of the North has nearly disappeared, a decline witnessed first-hand by people in Kugluktuk. Other herds across the North American Arctic tell similar stories, with devastating effects on Indigenous communities.

Navigating the perils of a changing Arctic

Animals learned to migrate because it helps them survive. For caribou, travelling long distances to calving grounds offers major advantages. First, migration allows females to time giving birth with the brief burst of nutritious spring vegetation, when plants provide the protein levels needed for females to nurse growing calves.

Second, when tens of thousands of females gather to give birth within a short window of time, predators such as wolves and bears can only consume a small fraction of calves — a phenomenon ecologists call “predator swamping.”

But the ecological conditions that once made caribou migrations so effective are changing.

Arctic warming is altering vegetation growth in northern ecosystems. In many regions, plants growth is starting earlier in spring. Migratory animals like caribou may not always adjust their movements at the same pace, potentially creating mismatches between migrations and peak food availability.

Climate change may also be reshaping species interactions. Grizzly bears appear to be increasingly present in parts of the tundra where they were historically less common, potentially increasing predation during the calving season.

We recently conducted research into this trend, along with colleagues, using a large network of camera traps. We documented substantial overlap between grizzly bears and Bathurst caribou during calving.

If predators are increasingly present where calves are born and climate change affects the timing of resources available to mothers, migration may no longer be as advantageous.

Infrastructural barriers to migration

Migration depends on something deceptively simple: space. Caribou must be able to move freely across vast landscapes. Around the world, roads, fences and other human infrastructure have fragmented migration routes and limited the space available to animals.

The Arctic remains one of the last places where large-scale terrestrial migrations still unfold largely intact. But that distinction is increasingly under pressure.

Proposed infrastructure projects such as the Arctic Economic and Security Corridor in northern Canada and the Ambler Road Project in Alaska would cross hundreds of kilometres of key caribou migratory routes. For Indigenous communities, the stakes are high.

People from these communities have repeatedly raised concerns about the potential impacts of such projects. Their voices, and the land-based knowledge that informs them, must be central to planning and consent processes. Too often, consultation occurs only after major decisions have already been made and local voices are muted.

Where development proceeds, Indigenous Peoples must also be meaningful beneficiaries rather than communities left to bear the ecological and cultural costs of projects that threaten the wildlife they depend on.

Studies of caribou and other migratory ungulates show that roads and industrial activity can disrupt movements, reduce landscape connectivity and affect survival. These concerns have led some Indigenous organizations to oppose new road construction and resource development in caribou habitat, citing the long-term risks to herd viability. Together, Inuit and scientific knowledge contribute to wildlife co-management, and under Nunavut’s co-management system, Inuit are a strong voice for wildlife — especially caribou.

Protecting migrations in a changing world

Globally, migratory species are declining at alarming rates. A recent United Nations report found that nearly half of migratory species are experiencing population declines.

This week, governments from around the world are in Brazil for the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals. As a non-party to the convention, Canada is not bound by its outcomes — but the moral and diplomatic pressure to act is no less real.

The tools exist: transboundary protections, migratory corridor designations and co-ordinated limits on industrial development in critical habitat. What’s lacking is the political will to apply them at the scale the crisis demands.

For these measures to succeed for caribou, they must also incorporate Indigenous land rights alongside practical mitigation measures — such as seasonal traffic restrictions — that allow caribou to move freely across their migration routes.

Protecting caribou migrations also requires confronting the broader climate crisis driving Arctic change. The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet, and the phenological mismatches and shifting species ranges that threaten caribou will only intensify as greenhouse gas emissions rise. That means saving caribou migrations ultimately demands a rapid and genuine reduction in our collective carbon footprint.

As delegates gather in Brazil, the fate of Arctic caribou migrations should serve as both a warning and a test. Caribou migrations are among the great natural wonders of our planet. Whether future generations will still witness them depends on decisions being made right now — and on whether those decisions finally centre the peoples who live with, and for, the caribou.

Benjamin Larue receives funding from the Liber Ero Postdoctoral Fellowship, the World Wildlife Fund and the National Geographic Society.

Allen Niptanatiak and Amanda Dumond do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Canada’s migratory caribou are under threat. Will we act before it’s too late? – https://theconversation.com/canadas-migratory-caribou-are-under-threat-will-we-act-before-its-too-late-277591

March 23, 2026

Le RN s’implante localement, mais échoue dans les métropoles. Quelles leçons pour 2027 ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Frédéric Sawicki, professeur de science politique, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

Quel est le bilan des municipales 2026 ? Les deux partis en dynamique, le RN et LFI, sont-ils renforcés en vue des élections présidentielles de l’an prochain ? Entretien avec le politiste Frédéric Sawicki.

The Conversation : quel est le bilan des municipales 2026 ?

Frédéric Sawicki : Commençons par rappeler que dans 9 communes sur 10, les élections ont été jouées dès le premier tour. Les seconds tours ont surtout concerné la France urbaine. Dans une ville sur deux au moins, trois listes étaient en compétition, confirmant la tripolarisation de notre champ politique. Au total, la stabilité politique domine car à la différence de 2008 ou 2014, ces élections municipales n’ont pas été l’occasion de sanctionner une majorité ou un gouvernement, faute de présence massive de listes se réclamant de la « majorité présidentielle ».

En conséquence les rares bascules d’un camp vers l’autre s’expliquent souvent par des considérations locales. Si le PS gagne Saint-Étienne, ça n’est pas sans lien avec les affaires qui ont affecté le maire sortant (mis en cause pour avoir utilisé une vidéo pour exercer un chantage sur son adjoint). Inversement si à Brest, le PS perd, l’effet d’usure du maire sortant, élu depuis 2001, n’y est sans doute pas pour rien. On pourrait multiplier les exemples.

On constate également un certain nombre de constantes sociologiques. Les très grandes métropoles votent toujours massivement à gauche. Dans les villes d’économie touristique, avec une forte présence de professions indépendantes, des petits patrons, de commerçants, des populations liées au monde militaire (par exemple à Toulon), ou des retraités aisés (Nice, Menton ou Cagnes-sur-Mer), le vote est fortement orienté à droite ou désormais à l’extrême droite.

Au total, on constate finalement autant de cas de bascules de la droite vers la gauche ou inversement, que des déplacements à l’intérieur de chaque camp : des villes socialistes ou communistes deviennent LFI (Saint-Denis, Vénissieux), des villes écologistes basculent vers le centre gauche (Strasbourg ou Poitiers). De l’autre côté du spectre, certaines villes de droite ou du centre droit passent à l’extrême droite ou à ses alliés, par exemple à Nice avec Eric Ciotti.

Les quelques bascules de la gauche vers la droite sont rares et elles s’équilibrent par les bascules dans l’autre sens. Sur les municipalités de plus de 50 000 habitants, la gauche et les écologistes perdent Bordeaux, Clermont-Ferrand, Brest, Avignon, Besançon, Poitiers, Cherbourg, mais ils gagnent Saint-Étienne, Nîmes, Amiens, Roubaix, Aubervilliers et Pau.

L’un des résultats notables est l’implantation locale du RN…

Frédéric Sawicki : L’un des phénomènes nouveaux est le fort renforcement de l’ancrage municipal du Rassemblement national. En 2020, le RN ne l’a emporté que dans 17 villes, dont sept de plus de 20 000 habitant·e·s. Cette fois-ci, il en gagne 60. Certes, il y a des échecs importants à Toulon ou Nîmes, mais il y a la conquête de nombreuses villes moyennes comme Carpentras, La Seyne-sur-Mer, La Flèche, Vierzon, Montargis, Liévin… La présence du RN est surtout localisée dans l’ancien bassin minier du Pas-de-Calais, sur la Côte d’Azur, mais aussi en Occitanie (Agde, Castres, Carcassonne, Montauban).

Par ailleurs, le RN ancre sa présence dans les villes qu’il avait conquises en 2014 puis en 2020, c’est essentiel pour renforcer sa crédibilité en vue des présidentielles de 2027.

LFI est-il également renforcé par ces élections municipales ?

Frédéric Sawicki : La percée de LFI est réelle puisque plusieurs villes de plus de 30 000 habitants sont gagnées – Saint-Denis, Roubaix, Saint-Paul et Le Tampon (à La Réunion), Vénissieux, Vaux-en-Velin, La Courneuve, Creil. Ce n’est pas rien quand l’on part de zéro. Pour autant, il faut relativiser cette percée.

Les insoumis ont échoué dans les situations où ils avaient pris la tête de la gauche (à Toulouse ou à Limoges). Le parti de Jean-Luc Mélenchon n’a pas été en capacité de décrocher des municipalités tenues par la droite, à l’exception de Roubaix.

Par ailleurs, LFI a voulu s’imposer comme un partenaire incontournable, avec la menace de faire chuter le PS en cas de refus d’alliance. Or, lorsque les socialistes et alliés ont refusé la fusion, ils ont rarement été battus. LFI n’a donc pas réussi à démontrer sa capacité de nuisance – le cas de Paris étant emblématique, mais on peut également citer Rennes ou Montpellier.

Enfin, on remarque que dans le cadre d’alliances, notamment avec les écologistes, des villes ont été perdues (Strasbourg, Poitiers, Besançon..). Lorsque les alliances ont permis de gagner (Grenoble, Lyon, Tours), les Insoumis ne seront pas représentés au sein des exécutifs car les fusions étaient uniquement « techniques ». Les élus LFI resteront donc cantonnés à un rôle d’opposant, ce qui ne permet pas au parti de démontrer une capacité à gouverner. C’est un vrai problème pour accéder au pouvoir suprême en 2027 que d’apparaître comme un parti purement protestataire.

On remarque que le centre et la droite ont renforcé leur alliance lors de ces municipales…

Frédéric Sawicki : Il y a eu énormément de listes où le centre droit, Horizons, MoDem et Renaissance, se sont alliés avec des candidats de droite, UDI ou LR, dès le premier tour. Au deuxième tour, on a assisté à de nombreuses fusions. Cette élection municipale s’inscrit donc dans la continuité de l’alliance parlementaire entre le bloc central et la droite depuis 2022 et surtout depuis 2024 et préfigure ce qui pourrait se passer à la présidentielle. Après le second tour, on a entendu des appels pour que LR, Horizons et les macronistes se dotent d’un dispositif et d’un candidat communs. Avec sa victoire au Havre, Edouard Philippe a prononcé un discours visant à fédérer ces forces – même si la bataille reste très ouverte.

Il a beaucoup été question de la « guerre des gauches », avec une fracture nette entre une partie des socialistes et les insoumis… Quels sont les enjeux pour 2027 ?

Frédéric Sawicki : La fracture entre ceux qui refusent toute alliance avec LFI et les autres s’est renforcée avec ces municipales. Mais ce que l’on constate, c’est que le centre autonome n’existe plus guère, le bloc central étant clairement allié avec la droite désormais. Quelle est donc la stratégie d’alliance de ceux qui, comme Raphaël Glucksmann ou François Hollande, prônent un rapprochement avec les centristes ? Si le Parti socialiste sort plutôt renforcé de cette élection, c’est parce qu’il a su s’allier, dès le premier tour, avec les écologistes, les communistes, Place publique ou d’anciens insoumis. La seule voie qui semble se dessiner pour la gauche, c’est de travailler sur ce socle en la renforçant – sans LFI – tout en montrant aux électeurs insoumis qu’ils ne sont pas des inaudibles et que leurs aspirations sont entendues.

Certains observateurs redoutaient une « fusion » entre la droite et l’extrême droite. Elle n’a pas eu lieu au niveau des appareils. En revanche, les électeurs de la droite et de l’extrême droite se sont, semble-t-il, bien rapprochés…

Frédéric Sawicki : Les initiatives locales de rapprochement entre le RN et des candidats de la droite ont immédiatement été condamnées par LR. Le fait que Bruno Retailleau n’ait pas appelé à voter Christian Estrosi contre Eric Ciotti à Nice a provoqué l’indignation. En revanche, le choix des électeurs a montré une grande porosité entre droite et extrême droite. La présence de candidats insoumis faisant figure de repoussoir, des électeurs RN ont voté LR pour faire barrage à la gauche, et des électeurs LR ont voté RN pour les mêmes raisons. C’est clair à Brest, à Clermont-Ferrand, à Limoges, Besançon, Marseille, où l’électorat de Martine Vassal (LR) a été divisé par deux entre le premier et le second tour, au profit de Franck Allisio (RN).

Finalement, qui sort vainqueur de ces municipales ? Le RN a-t-il franchi une étape de plus pour un succès en 2027 ?

Frédéric Sawicki : Le RN bénéficie d’une dynamique positive, le renforcement de son implantation locale est une étape importante en vue des sénatoriales mais aussi des élections présidentielles et législatives. Pour autant, il reste à la porte des très grandes villes, ce qui est une faiblesse majeure dans la perspective de sa marche vers l’Élysée. Comment un parti pourrait-il gagner le pouvoir national en étant absent des métropoles où se concentre l’essentiel de l’activité intellectuelle et économique de la nation ? Le RN représente autour de 30 % des électeurs : il peut gagner en 2027 face à un Jean-Luc Mélenchon isolé, ou si la gauche (hors LFI) et la droite restent divisées. Le succès du RN en 2027 n’a donc rien d’inéluctable à condition que la gauche ou la droite rassemblent. C’est ce que François Mitterrand avait réussi à faire en 1981 et en 1988. C’est ce que Jacques Chirac avait fait en 1995, comme Nicolas Sarkozy en 2007. C’est désormais aux forces politiques de jouer… avec les bonnes cartes.

Propos recueillis par David Bornstein

Frédéric Sawicki ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Le RN s’implante localement, mais échoue dans les métropoles. Quelles leçons pour 2027 ? – https://theconversation.com/le-rn-simplante-localement-mais-echoue-dans-les-metropoles-quelles-lecons-pour-2027-279035

March 23, 2026

Lionel Jospin, figure éthique de la gauche française

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Pierre Bréchon, Professeur émérite de science politique, Sciences Po Grenoble, Auteurs historiques The Conversation France

Lionel Jospin, ancien premier ministre français, s’est éteint dimanche 22 mars, à l’âge de 88 ans. À la tête du gouvernement de la gauche plurielle de 1997 à 2002, il a marqué la vie politique par de nombreuses réformes : les 35 heures, PACS, CMU… premier ministre sous Jacques Chirac, premier secrétaire du PS, il échoua aux élections présidentielles de 1995 et de 2002.

Lionel Jospin fut, des années durant, au cœur des combats de la gauche française, dès 1981, avec la négociation du programme de gouvernement avec le Parti communiste et jusqu’à l’époque de gauche plurielle, de 1997 à 2002, lorsqu’il gouverna une France en situation de cohabitation.

Né en 1937 dans une famille protestante et militante de gauche, de classe moyenne, avec un père enseignant et une mère sage-femme, Lionel Jospin fait de brillantes études à Sciences Po Paris puis à l’ENA. Il entre dans la carrière diplomatique, puis enseigne l’économie à l’IUT de Sceaux, avant d’être complètement happé par la politique.

Étudiant, il avait milité un temps à l’UNEF ; antistalinien et opposé à la politique coloniale de la SFIO, il s’engage aussi à l’Union de la gauche socialiste (UGS) créée en 1957, puis au Parti socialiste Unifié (PSU) né en 1960. En 1965, il se laisse séduire par l’Organisation communiste internationaliste (OCI), mouvement trotskiste antibolchevique, au fonctionnement secret, qui envoie ses adhérents militer dans des partis de gauche non communistes. Il est d’abord un intellectuel du mouvement sans action interne dans un autre parti, mais rejoint le Parti socialiste en 1971. Il y participe d’abord à un groupe d’experts des relations internationales. Il est très vite remarqué par François Mitterrand, entre au bureau exécutif en 1973, et y fait une ascension très rapide.

A la tête du parti en 1981

Il devient Premier secrétaire lorsque François Mitterrand entre en campagne présidentielle en 1981. Il est ainsi associé à l’exercice du pouvoir pendant tout le premier septennat mitterrandien, participant chaque semaine au « petit déjeuner du mardi » autour du président pour discuter des politiques à l’agenda. Il quitte la direction du parti en 1988 pour devenir ministre de l’Éducation nationale jusqu’en 1992.

En 1994, dans un contexte de fortes critiques du président dans l’opinion, et d’un score très bas de la liste socialiste aux élections européennes, Michel Rocard renonce à être candidat à la présidentielle de 1995, Jacques Delors aussi. Dans une primaire interne à seulement deux mois du premier tour, Lionel Jospin est facilement désigné candidat face à Henri Emmanuelli, Premier secrétaire. Dans les semaines qui suivent, il fait une remontée fulgurante dans les sondages où son image d’honnêteté est reconnue. Il revendique un droit d’inventaire dans le bilan mitterrandien et propose un programme social avec réduction du temps de travail hebdomadaire à 37 heures, création d’emplois jeunes, amélioration des petites retraites, construction de logements sociaux. Il se déclare aussi favorable à une police de proximité, à la limitation du cumul des mandats et à un mandat présidentiel de cinq ans. Contre toute attente, il arrive en tête du premier tour mais suivi de près par Jacques Chirac et Edouard Balladur. Il est battu au second tour avec un score très honorable après deux mandats socialistes (47,4 %).

Premier ministre de la gauche plurielle de 1997 à 2002

À nouveau Premier secrétaire, il prépare les échéances futures. Aux législatives anticipées de 1997, il conduit une coalition électorale de gauche plurielle (PS, PCF, PR, Mouvement des citoyens, Verts), avec candidature unique chaque fois qu’un accord a été possible, qui obtient une majorité absolue de 319 sièges. Lionel Jospin devient, pendant cinq ans, le premier ministre de la troisième cohabitation, il va donc être le véritable entrepreneur de la politique française pendant cinq ans.

En matière sociale, de nombreux emplois aidés sont créés pour réduire le chômage des jeunes ; une prime pour l’emploi va permettre d’augmenter le pouvoir d’achat des travailleurs pauvres ; une allocation personnalisée d’autonomie (APA) et la couverture maladie universelle (CMU) sont créées ; la loi « Solidarité et renouvellement urbains » (SRU) oblige les communes à développer le logement social ; le temps de travail est réduit à 35 heures sans perte de salaire, un congé paternité est instauré ; la TVA baisse d’un point ; des mesures sont adoptées en faveur du développement durable. Concernant les libertés publiques, le PACS, nouveau statut d’union ouvert aux homosexuels est instauré ; les droits des malades sont mieux reconnus ; le droit du sol, aboli en 1993 par la loi Pasqua, est rétabli.

Du point de vue institutionnel, l’intercommunalité est renforcée ; une police de proximité est mise en place ; le mandat présidentiel est réduit à cinq ans ; de nouveaux statuts de la Corse et de la Nouvelle-Calédonie voient le jour ; les fonds spéciaux de l’Elysée sont supprimés ; les ministres sont contraints de ne plus diriger des exécutifs locaux ; la parité des candidatures entre hommes et femmes est instaurée.

Du point de vue économique, le gouvernement Jospin poursuit une politique libérale et privatise – complètement ou en partie – certaines sociétés (notamment France Telecom, Thomson-CSF, Air France) mais aussi des banques (CIC, Société marseillaise de crédit et Crédit lyonnais) et des assureurs (Gan et CNP).

Grâce à ces politiques sociales et de modernisation économique, mais aussi du fait d’une conjoncture économique favorable, le chômage baisse assez fortement, passant de 10,6 % au 3^e trimestre 1997 à 7, 9 % au 2^e trimestre 2002.

À Matignon, Lionel Jospin ne fait pas d’annonces tonitruantes et reste modeste, soucieux de respecter ses ministres et de dialoguer avec eux, de gérer les conflits entre tendances de la gauche plurielle tout en s’assurant de la continuité des politiques menées avec le programme de la coalition. Il se définit lui-même en 1999 comme « un dogmatique qui évolue, un austère qui se marre et un protestant athée ». Contrairement à beaucoup de chefs de gouvernement français, l’opinion reste positive à son égard, même s’il subit une petite baisse la dernière année. Jacques Chirac, lui, bénéficie de sa position privilégiée de chef de l’État pour critiquer le gouvernement, notamment sur sa politique qui serait trop laxiste à l’égard des incivilités.

L’échec à la présidentielle de 2002

Les deux têtes de l’exécutif sont candidats à la présidentielle de 2002, et tout le monde s’attend à un second tour entre eux. Contre toute attente, Jean-Marie Le Pen arrive en seconde position (16,9 %) derrière Jacques Chirac (19,9 %), éliminant le premier ministre socialiste au soir du Premier tour (16,2 %).

Lionel Jospin a été affaibli par un trop grand nombre de candidats de gauche. Les cinq candidats de la gauche plurielle obtiennent ensemble 32,5 %, auxquels peuvent s’ajouter trois listes d’extrême gauche (10,5 %). La droite ne recueille que 25,2 % et le centre 8,7 %. Le fait d’avoir cru Jospin qualifié d’office pour le second tour a favorisé chez certains électeurs de gauche le choix d’une autre tendance, voire d’un vote d’extrême gauche.

Dans sa déclaration au soir du premier tour, Lionel Jospin se dit fier du travail accompli depuis cinq ans et assume la responsabilité de cet échec. Il annonce son retrait de la vie politique. Il déplore le score de l’extrême droite, pour la première fois qualifiée pour un second tour, mais n’appellera à voter Jacques Chirac qu’à la veille du second tour, étant en forte divergence avec sa politique.

La retraite politique

Après son retrait de la vie politique, Lionel Jospin publie, en 2005, Le monde tel que je le vois où il s’interroge sur l’avenir de l’Union européenne après l’échec du référendum, sur la politique économique et sur le devenir du PS. Il laisse entendre qu’il pourrait à nouveau être candidat à la présidentielle si on le lui demandait. Mais quelques mois plus tard, il renonce à se présenter aux élections et soutient Ségolène Royal. Peu après l’échec de cette dernière, il publie dans le livre L’impasse qui la critique durement.

Pour l’élection présidentielle de 2012, Lionel Jospin participe à la campagne de François Hollande. Celui-ci élu, le président de la République annonce sa nomination à la tête d’une Commission sur la rénovation et la déontologie de la vie publique, pour formuler des propositions visant notamment à réduire le cumul des mandats et à établir des règles déontologiques sur la transparence de la vie publique. Certaines propositions seront actées dans des lois, notamment sur l’interdiction du cumul de mandats entre fonctions exécutives locales et mandat parlementaire.

En décembre 2014, Lionel Jospin est nommé au Conseil constitutionnel où il siège jusqu’en 2019, respectant alors la neutralité et la réserve demandée aux neuf sages.

Pierre Bréchon ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Lionel Jospin, figure éthique de la gauche française – https://theconversation.com/lionel-jospin-figure-ethique-de-la-gauche-francaise-279019

March 23, 2026

Lire pour réussir : pourquoi la motivation et l’entourage font la différence

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Daisy Pelletier, PhD in Educational Psychology, Université Laval

La réussite en lecture est une préoccupation majeure, en raison de son rôle central dans les autres disciplines scolaires. Or, face au manque de ressources et à la diversité des besoins, comment mieux soutenir les élèves ?

À l’école, les classes sont souvent composées d’élèves aux besoins variés et les ressources ne sont pas toujours suffisantes. Le personnel de l’éducation souligne notamment des effectifs trop élevés, des élèves en grande difficulté sans soutien adapté, un manque de personnel de soutien et un temps de préparation insuffisant, ce qui rend l’accompagnement individualisé difficile. À l’extérieur de l’école, la lecture est en compétition avec de nombreuses autres activités et les élèves ne disposent pas tous des mêmes occasions de s’y engager, ce qui accentue les inégalités.

Dans une récente étude canadienne menée auprès de 1533 élèves du primaire (4^e et 6^e année) et du secondaire (2^e et 4^e secondaire), nous nous sommes intéressés aux mécanismes pouvant expliquer leur réussite en lecture. Au début de l’année scolaire 2019-2020, ces élèves ont rempli un questionnaire portant sur le temps consacré à la lecture récréative, les raisons de lire et le soutien reçu en lecture de leur enseignant de français, de leurs parents et de leurs amis.

Quelques mois plus tard, ces variables ont été utilisées pour prédire la note en lecture au deuxième bulletin, en tenant compte du niveau initial des élèves au premier bulletin.

La motivation, moteur de l’engagement en lecture

L’analyse des réponses obtenues montre que les élèves qui pratiquent la lecture dans leurs temps libres obtiennent de meilleures notes en lecture que leurs camarades de classe qui ne lisent pas. Ce lien soulève une question centrale : qu’est-ce qui amène certains élèves à lire plus souvent que d’autres dans leurs temps libres ?

Pour s’engager dans la lecture, les élèves ont besoin de motivations, qui correspondent à des raisons de lire. Toutefois, les motivations ne garantissent pas toutes un engagement de qualité. Dans la recherche que nous avons menée, les raisons de lire relevant d’un choix de l’élève (par exemple, lire par plaisir) étaient liées à une pratique plus fréquente de la lecture que celles relevant d’une pression externe (lire pour éviter une conséquence) ou interne (lire pour ne pas se sentir coupable de ne pas le faire).

Plus encore, la motivation à lire en contexte récréatif était plus fortement associée à la pratique de la lecture que la motivation à lire en contexte scolaire. Ce résultat peut s’expliquer par la nature même de la lecture récréative, qui repose généralement sur un choix. Lorsqu’un élève lit dans ses temps libres, il le fait pour des raisons personnelles comme le plaisir, l’intérêt ou la curiosité, notamment parce qu’il dispose d’une grande liberté pour choisir ses lectures.

À l’inverse, la lecture scolaire ne relève pas toujours du choix : un élève qui lit pour l’école peut le faire par plaisir ou par intérêt, mais aussi pour des raisons externes comme obtenir de bonnes notes ou éviter d’être pénalisé à une évaluation. Cela invite à porter attention aux pratiques qui nourrissent des raisons de lire fondées sur le plaisir, l’intérêt et le sens que les élèves accordent à leur lecture, autant à l’école qu’à l’extérieur de celle-ci.

Les parents et les amis : des alliés à mobiliser

Comme plusieurs caractéristiques physiques ou psychologiques, la motivation scolaire s’explique en partie par des facteurs génétiques. En lecture spécifiquement, jusqu’à 50 % de la motivation est attribuable à l’hérédité. Est-ce à dire qu’on ne peut rien y faire ? Absolument pas. Certains facteurs environnementaux jouent également un rôle important pour expliquer la motivation en lecture.

Contrairement à une idée reçue selon laquelle la réussite en lecture relève d’abord et avant tout de l’école, les résultats de notre étude révèlent que la contribution des enseignants ne parvient pas à rivaliser avec celle des parents et des amis pour soutenir la motivation et la pratique de la lecture des élèves.

Plus précisément, les comportements des parents et des amis qui soutiennent le besoin d’appartenance sociale (par exemple, être un modèle de lecteur, s’intéresser aux goûts de son enfant/d’un ami en lecture) s’avèrent particulièrement importants pour favoriser une motivation ne relevant d’aucune pression, tant en contexte récréatif que scolaire.

Cela ne signifie pas que les enseignants ne jouent aucun rôle, mais que leur contribution ne ressort pas comme distincte lorsque l’on considère les autres sources de soutien. L’école demeure néanmoins un milieu universel pouvant offrir à tous les élèves des occasions de lire, indépendamment des ressources dont ils disposent à la maison.

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Un rôle qui transcende la période de l’enfance

L’importance du soutien des parents et des amis s’observe autant chez les élèves du primaire (4^e et 6^e année) que chez ceux du secondaire (2^e et 4^e secondaire). Autrement dit, leur rôle n’est pas moins important au secondaire. Toutefois, les interventions à privilégier doivent être cohérentes avec les besoins des élèves, qui peuvent se manifester différemment selon leur âge.

La réussite en lecture repose ainsi sur une responsabilité partagée entre l’école et la famille. Miser sur la lecture ne relève pas seulement des programmes scolaires ou des approches pédagogiques, mais d’un engagement collectif visant à créer des environnements où les élèves cultivent leur intérêt pour la lecture.

Pour les enseignants, il peut s’agir d’offrir aux élèves des occasions de choisir leurs lectures, de préserver des moments où ils sont invités à lire librement et de favoriser les échanges entre pairs autour de la lecture. Pour les parents, il peut s’agir de s’intéresser aux goûts de leurs enfants, de discuter de leurs lectures ou d’incarner eux-mêmes le plaisir de lire.

Car avant de réussir en lecture, encore faut-il développer le goût de lire.

Daisy Pelletier a reçu des financements du Conseil de recherches en sciences humaines et du Fonds de Recherche du Québec – Société et culture

Catherine Ratelle a reçu des financements du CRSH et du FRQSC.

Frédéric Guay a reçu des financements du CRSH.

William Gilbert a reçu des financements du FRQSC.

Erick Falardeau ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Lire pour réussir : pourquoi la motivation et l’entourage font la différence – https://theconversation.com/lire-pour-reussir-pourquoi-la-motivation-et-lentourage-font-la-difference-273884

March 23, 2026

Vietnam ruined Lyndon B. Johnson’s political career. Will Donald Trump face the same fate over Iran?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ronald W. Pruessen, Emeritus Professor of History, University of Toronto

Is United States President Donald Trump lurching toward decline and fall? Will he and his MAGA movement reprise Lyndon B. Johnson’s story, when the quagmire of the Vietnam War took the Democratic president out of the 1968 election and gave Republican Richard Nixon the opening he needed to defeat the Democrats?

Trump’s war on Iran is already hurting him politically. More than half of Americans disapprove of the decision to join Israel and attack Iran.

And Iran is not the only problem for Trump and MAGA. The loss of 92,000 jobs in February offers little good news. Neither does a Supreme Court ruling that weakened the tariff strategy at the core of Trump’s economic plan. There’s also the lingering risk posed by ongoing media and public attention to the Jeffrey Epstein files.

Amid all these storm clouds, Trump’s extreme and bizarre behaviour shows no signs of abating. His provocative boorishness continues: as with the “Good, I’m glad he’s dead” posting about the death of former FBI director Robert Mueller and the baseball cap he wore at the “dignified transfer” of the remains of U.S. soldiers who have died in the conflict.

Other disturbing and ultimately weightier behaviour has included Trump’s bulldozing of the American Constitution as readily as the East Wing of the White House by ignoring congressional powers, weaponizing the Department of Justice and fostering kleptocracy for friends and family via cryptocurrency ventures.

Without discounting the toll of the extreme and bizarre, however, the potential impact of a traditional force hiding in plain sight may prove more powerful. Will Trump’s 2024 voters shift loyalties because the purportedly amazing “deal maker” has forgotten that buyers have cancellation options when they become unhappy?

Parallels to LBJ

Former president Lyndon B. Johnson — known colloquially as LBJ — may offer the most dramatic cautionary tale for Trump. The shrewd Texan was a master of congressional coalitions crucial to achieving transformative “Great Society” milestones
like the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the “War on Poverty.”

Becoming president after John F. Kennedy’s assassination, Johnson’s triumph in his own right in the 1964 election turned gradually toward disaster. The costs of a protracted conflict in Vietnam — that “bitch of a war,” in Johnson’s own words — was the primary driver in his reversal of electoral fortunes.

But his problems were also compounded by backlash against radicalization within the Civil Rights Movement, the tradition-shaking tremors emanating from the 1960s “counterculture” and the so-called sexual revolution.

Wilson and Truman

There are other lessons for Trump in the experiences of Woodrow Wilson and Harry Truman.

Wilson predated LBJ in a dramatic loss of support among once-enthusiastic voters.

At the end of the First World War, the 38th president and his Democrats faced disaster in 1919-20, when struggles at the Paris Peace Conference and the flaws of its Treaty of Versailles made it clear that a messianic crusade to “end all wars” and “make the world safe for democracy” had been vastly oversold.

Wilson damaged his party further by refusing to compromise with congressional internationalists of both parties (partially attributable to the president’s October 1919 stroke). Republicans went on to win the 1920, 1924 and 1928 elections.

Feisty Harry Truman came to the presidency after Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1945 death and made his “Fair Deal” extensions of FDR’s New Deal popular enough to win election himself in 1948.

Serious problems then emerged when Soviet testing of an atomic bomb, and the emergence of the People’s Republic of China spurred Cold War anxieties. All of this was intensified by Sen. Joseph McCarthy’s rants about “pinko” domestic subversives and the mounting frustrations of a long-stalemated war in Korea.

Republicans under Dwight Eisenhower easily won the 1952 election.

Trump’s turn?

There’s little evidence Trump cares much about or understands historical precedents, but if he does, he might be experiencing some alarm at the moment.

The specifics of Trump’s transactional relationship with voters may not repeat past patterns exactly, but the underlying dynamics of political transactionalism are difficult to suppress.

Buyers’ remorse, in fact, may dramatically reveal itself later this year in the mid-term elections.

Promising “golden age” economic growth, Trump has instead delivered results that range from disappointing to devastating. Lurching tariff policies have caused tensions in profitable trade relationships, including Canada, and increases in prices.

Any easing of inflation is now seriously threatened by a war-related oil crisis. Gas price increases already greater than 20 per cent signal a cascading impact on manufacturing and food production costs. Voters do not need Democrat messaging to feel affordability stress — they’re living it.

ICE overkill

Trump also set immigration correction as a primary goal, tapping into clear voter desire. But his administration has used excessive force and scale that have turned off many voters.

The year 2025 may have resulted in a 93 per cent drop in apprehensions of unauthorized entrants at U.S. borders, but it also brought ICE ferocity, slayings of American citizens and the fierceness of incarcerations in facilities like Florida’s “Alligator Alcatraz” without due process.

There have also been disruptions of neighbourhoods and workplaces across the country as long-time “illegals” are rounded up or forced into hiding.

Another vaunted Trump promise: an “America First” stance that avoided the global activism requiring costly military ventures.

And yet, Trump has made threats against Greenland and Canada, embarked upon a military invasion of Venezuela and extracted President Victor Maduro, and launched military operations in Somalia, Yemen and Syria.

The ongoing war in Iran has now been waged with ever-shifting justifications and without congressional authorization.

Consequences

Flawed delivery on key campaign commitments reveals core weaknesses in Trump’s “art of the deal” posturing — particularly his insensitivity to the two-way-street dynamic of a successful transactional relationship with voters.

In a democratic system, even an imperfect one, voters show support for promises both made and kept.

There can be patience about the pacing of the delivery of those promises, as Trump seemed to be granted about inflation in the early months of his second presidency. There can be pragmatism about the realities of overseas conflicts of the kind LBJ enjoyed in the Vietnam War’s initial stages.

At some point, however, voters usually shift course because they see they’re not getting what they voted for. Will this fate befall Trump in November?

Ronald W. Pruessen has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

– ref. Vietnam ruined Lyndon B. Johnson’s political career. Will Donald Trump face the same fate over Iran? – https://theconversation.com/vietnam-ruined-lyndon-b-johnsons-political-career-will-donald-trump-face-the-same-fate-over-iran-278847

March 23, 2026

Saturday Night Live UK’s first episode was a ratings success and had some shining moments that prove it can work

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tom Hemingway, Teaching Fellow in Film and Television Studies, University of Warwick

An air of scepticism greeted the announcement last year that the American sketch comedy show Saturday Night Live (SNL) would get a UK counterpart.

Critics of the news brought up the incompatibility of British and American humour as a major issue, as well as the lack of big-name British comedians who could potentially work on the show. The latter concern seems to misunderstand the fact that the likes of Chevy Chase and Gilda Radner were plucked out of relative obscurity in 1975 to star in the first season of the original US version.

As a scholar in television comedy, I believe the only way SNL UK could work on its own terms is to allow a new crop of British talent to create their own group dynamic and to rely on the original version of the show in format only. Based on the first episode alone, it seems like they have achieved this with ease.

The most interesting thing about the first episode of SNL UK is how it sought to teach UK audiences how SNL typically works and what they can expect. Former US SNL comedian Tina Fey was selected to host the debut episode, effectively acting as a representative for the institution and fuelling further speculation about her potential takeover of the US show when SNL creator and producer, Lorne Michaels, eventually decides to retire.

In her successful opening monologue, Fey explained the show’s format, mentioning its sketch comedy, musical performances and the fact it was a live broadcast where things can go wrong. Fey’s monologue also included three celebrity cameos – another common feature of the show – from British TV stalwart Graham Norton and actors Michael Cera and Nicola Coughlan. Norton’s inclusion was smartly executed, providing UK viewers with a familiar face right at the start of the show.

The back-and-forth between Norton and Fey involved him quizzing her on various aspects of British comedy and culture more broadly. Along the way, Fey performed impressions from Monty Python, Fawlty Towers and Eastenders. Once again, British comedy culture, plus all of the weird stuff which seeps into the collective consciousness (“Nothing beats a Jet 2 holiday”, “What a sad little life, Jane”), was leaned on in the opener.

The sketches also helped teach the viewer how the show works on a moment-to-moment basis. For instance, the camera frequently tracked backwards once a sketch was complete to show the makeshift set, behind-the-scenes crew members and the live studio audience watching.

Wet Leg were the first British band to take the SNL UK stage, performing two songs from their recent album Moisturizer. Like the US version, the sound quality for these performances was somewhat muddled and poorly mixed, but the band’s energy carried them through.

As is often the case with SNL, not everything worked. David Attenborough’s Last Supper sketch ran too long, involving nearly every cast member playing a famous historical figure – ranging from Al Nash’s Winston Churchill to Emma Sidi’s Cilla Black. George Fouracres delivered a rather weak Attenborough impression. However, his version of the prime minister, Keir Starmer, during the political “cold open” (a topical live sketch that begins each episode) was well-received and will no doubt become a permanent fixture on the programme over the next few years.

Fouracres’ weirdest moment came during the 45 Seconds with Fouracres sketch. The sketch began with Fouracres frantically singing “what kind of Irish is your grandad?” direct to camera, followed by him speaking in various, sometimes unintelligible, Irish accents. This was reminiscent of early SNL sketches and was a clear direct descendent of the surreal humour found in Vic Reeves and Bob Mortimer’s Shooting Stars, an often surreal and absurd British panel show from the 1990s. As the show continues and grows in confidence, pushing further in this direction would be welcome.

Along with Fouracres, Jack Shep (with his lip-biting Princess Di) and Hammed Animashaun made the biggest impressions, appearing in nearly every sketch.

Other highlights included the very first Weekend Update segment with Ania Magliano and Paddy Young. Update is the longest-running recurring sketch in SNL history and comments on current news events with cast members playing the role of news anchors. The first UK version featured a prop joke about helium shortages due to the conflict around the strait of Hormuz which was so well executed, I won’t ruin it here.

It also can’t be overstated how much difference a few swear words can make. It’s common knowledge in comedy that a carefully timed “fuck” can double your laughs. In the case of this week’s episode, the same could be said for a carefully timed “cunt”. Due to a more relaxed approach to late-night programming, this is one of the major ways in which the UK version can differentiate itself from its occasionally tame US forebear. It will be interesting to see just how far this can be pushed in future episodes.

The first episode reached 226,000 viewers in its 10pm slot on Sky One, a number which is likely to increase as people watch on catch-up services later in the week. Sky One received a bigger audience share than Channel 4 in the same timeslot, which is a resounding success for a programme broadcast on a subscription-based television service. Time will tell whether this initial curiosity will sustain into longer-term engagement and enthusiasm. But for now, the stars and writers can rest easy knowing that the first episode exceeded all expectations and has the potential to begin a new era in British comedy. See you on Saturday night.

Tom Hemingway does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Saturday Night Live UK’s first episode was a ratings success and had some shining moments that prove it can work – https://theconversation.com/saturday-night-live-uks-first-episode-was-a-ratings-success-and-had-some-shining-moments-that-prove-it-can-work-279021