Les poussières atmosphériques, cause sous-estimée de pollution de l’air dans les villes

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Emmanouil Proestakis, National Observatory of Athens

Transportées dans l’atmosphère parfois sur de longues distances, les poussières atmosphériques (particules en suspension dans l’air) constituent une source de pollution encore trop peu prise en compte, au regard des polluants classiques. Une analyse menée sur quinze ans de données satellitaires montre l’ampleur du risque pour les populations des mégapoles urbaines.


Les villes sont en train de devenir le principal lieu de vie humaine. En 2018, plus de 55 % de la population mondiale vivait dans des zones urbaines, une proportion qui devrait atteindre près de 68 % d’ici à 2050, selon les Nations unies.

Cette croissance urbaine sans précédent stimule l’innovation et l’activité économique, mais elle concentre également l’exposition humaine aux facteurs de stress environnementaux et intensifie la pression sur l’environnement urbain. Dans ce contexte, l’Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS) a souligné les défis multiples et les risques graves que la mauvaise qualité de l’air fait peser sur les activités socio-économiques et la santé humaine. On ne considère généralement, dans les études, la dégradation de la qualité de l’air qu’à travers les émissions de polluants tels le dioxyde d’azote (NO₂), le dioxyde de soufre (SO₂), le dioxyde de carbone (CO₂) et l’ozone (O₃).

Dans une étude récente, nous avons donc pris en compte la poussière atmosphérique (celle-ci est principalement produite par les déserts et par certaines pratiques agricoles et transportée par les vents, ndlt). Cette dernière s’accumule dans les zones urbaines et représente un facteur de risque supplémentaire trop souvent négligé, alors qu’il a des effets sanitaires délétères.

Les poussières atmosphériques, un enjeu de santé publique

Parmi les types d’aérosols contribuant à la dégradation de la qualité de l’air, les poussières atmosphériques provenant de sources naturelles et des activités humaines sont souvent considérées comme moins dangereuses. Le problème ? Cette hypothèse néglige un nombre croissant de preuves scientifiques démontrant que les poussières en suspension dans l’air constituent un danger pour la santé.

Tout d’abord, la masse de ces poussières n’est pas négligeable. En termes de masse, elles sont le deuxième type d’aérosols le plus abondant au monde, surpassé uniquement par les particules de sel marin. Dans les larges zones continentales, elles deviennent le principal composant de la charge d’aérosols atmosphériques.

Plus précisément, on estime que les sources naturelles, principalement les zones arides et semi-arides, émettent environ 4 680 téragrammes (Tg) (1 Tg = 1 milliard de kilogrammes) de poussière dans l’atmosphère chaque année. Cette estimation ne tient pas compte de la poussière déjà présente dans l’atmosphère.

À l’échelle mondiale, les processus naturels contribuent à environ trois quarts de la charge totale de poussière, le quart restant étant lié aux activités humaines, en particulier autour des zones urbaines et hautement industrialisées. Les transports, le développement des infrastructures, le changement d’affectation des sols, la déforestation, le pâturage et les pratiques agricoles peuvent être en cause.

Mettons ce chiffre en perspective : la masse de poussières en suspension dans l’air rejeté chaque année dans l’atmosphère à l’échelle mondiale correspond à 615 000 fois le poids de la tour Eiffel




À lire aussi :
Les poussières du Sahara qui remontent en Europe sont-elles radioactives du fait des essais nucléaires des années 1960 ?


Particules fines, grandes questions

De plus, ces particules sont loin d’être uniformes en taille. Des expériences à grande échelle menées pour étudier les polluants atmosphériques ont révélé que les particules présentes dans les couches atmosphériques transportées par le vent ont des tailles très variables, allant de moins de 0,1 micromètre (μm, environ la taille d’un virus SARS-CoV-2 , ou coronavirus) à plus de 100 μm (environ le diamètre d’un cheveu humain).

Plus inquiétant encore, les données issues d’études épidémiologiques établissent un lien entre les poussières en suspension dans l’air et des risques sanitaires. Les poussières minérales de grande taille sont souvent considérées comme relativement inoffensives, ne provoquant que des irritations cutanées mineures ou des réactions allergiques, même en cas d’exposition prolongée. Il en va autrement des particules fines. En raison de leur petite taille, ces particules fines peuvent pénétrer profondément dans les poumons, ce qui peut déclencher des maladies respiratoires et cardiovasculaires, des réactions allergiques plus graves, voire des cancers.

Au-delà de ces effets directs, les scientifiques continuent d’étudier le rôle de la poussière en tant que vecteur de bactéries, comme le suggèrent les épidémies de méningite dans le désert du Sahel.

Ces préoccupations soulèvent de nombreuses questions. Dans quelle mesure la répartition (entre particules fines et particules de grande taille) des poussières en suspension dans l’air a-t-elle évolué au cours des deux dernières décennies dans les zones urbaines fortement industrialisées et densément peuplées ?

Pouvons-nous détecter des tendances significatives, à la hausse ou à la baisse, dans ces données ? Quelles grandes villes connaissent actuellement, ou sont susceptibles de connaître dans un avenir proche, des concentrations de poussières dépassant les seuils de sécurité de la qualité de l’air fixés par l’OMS ?




À lire aussi :
Pollution de l’air : toutes les particules fines n’ont pas les mêmes effets sur la santé


Ce que montrent quinze années d’observations satellites dans les mégapoles

Afin de mieux comprendre la quantité de poussière que respirent quotidiennement les populations urbaines, notre récente étude a examiné les observations satellitaires de la Terre sur une période de plus de quinze ans. Nous avons étudié l’accumulation et les dynamiques temporelles des transports de poussière dans la couche atmosphérique la plus basse, au-dessus de 81 des plus grandes villes et zones urbaines du monde. Concrètement, nous avons retenu les zones où la population excède 5 millions d’habitants.

Les résultats révèlent plusieurs conclusions importantes :

  1. La poussière atmosphérique représente, sans aucun doute possible, une menace pour la santé publique dans un nombre important de grandes zones urbaines dans le monde. D’après les données démographiques et les projections fournies par l’ONU, environ 9 personnes sur 10, parmi les quelque 800 millions d’habitants des 81 plus grandes villes, sont exposées à des niveaux de poussière supérieurs aux seuils annuels de risque en matière de qualité de l’air. Une tendance géographique claire se dessine : les zones urbaines les plus touchées se situent au Moyen-Orient, dans le sous-continent indien (Asie du Sud), en Asie de l’Est et au Sahel.

  2. Les niveaux de poussière semblent diminuer dans la plupart des grandes villes. Cependant, cette nouvelle encourageante s’accompagne de deux réserves importantes : dans de nombreux cas, ces tendances temporelles à la baisse ne sont pas statistiquement significatives et, souvent, la charge globale de poussière reste considérable. En d’autres termes, même lorsque des réductions sont observées, elles ne se traduisent pas nécessairement par une diminution significative des risques pour la santé.

  3. À court terme, ce problème ne devrait pas disparaître. Selon les estimations de l’ONU, la population urbaine de ces mégapoles devrait augmenter pour atteindre plus d’un milliard de personnes au milieu des années 2030.

Par conséquent, la poussière atmosphérique restera un danger environnemental pour la santé. Même si les tendances à la baisse devaient se confirmer, cette pollution touchera davantage d’habitants du fait de l’augmentation des populations dans les villes.

De la science à la politique

En réponse aux preuves scientifiques de plus en plus nombreuses qui montrent que les poussières en suspension dans l’air constituent un risque pour la santé humaine, les pays renforcent peu à peu leurs législations en matière de qualité de l’air. Des initiatives nationales et internationales ont été lancées.

Des initiatives telles que le SDS-WAS de l’Organisation météorologique mondiale, l’alliance DANA et le programme CAMS NCP reflètent une collaboration croissante pour améliorer la surveillance, la modélisation et la traduction de la science en solutions pratiques. Parallèlement, les gouvernements s’efforcent d’aligner leurs réglementations sur les recommandations de l’OMS.

Par exemple, la directive révisée de l’Union européenne (UE) sur la qualité de l’air ambiant reconnaît explicitement les aérosols naturels tels que la poussière comme un danger pour la santé. Les progrès de la recherche, la coordination des politiques et l’amélioration de la réglementation constituent, ensemble, une base plus solide pour agir.

Avec l’accélération de l’urbanisation, la lutte contre la pollution de l’air, notamment la poussière atmosphérique, est essentielle pour protéger la santé publique, renforcer la résilience des villes et garantir un avenir plus durable aux villes du monde entier qui connaissent une croissance rapide.


Créé, en 2007, pour aider à accélérer et à partager les recherches scientifiques sur des enjeux sociaux majeurs, le Fonds d’Axa pour la recherche soutient près de 700 projets dans le monde. Pour en savoir plus, visiter le site ou bien sa page LinkedIn.

The Conversation

Emmanouil Proestakis a reçu des financements du Fonds AXA pour la recherche postdoctorale dans le cadre du projet intitulé « Observation de la Terre pour la qualité de l’air – Mode fin de la poussière » (EO4AQ-DustFM).

ref. Les poussières atmosphériques, cause sous-estimée de pollution de l’air dans les villes – https://theconversation.com/les-poussieres-atmospheriques-cause-sous-estimee-de-pollution-de-lair-dans-les-villes-277882

Les hérissons ont l’ouïe fine et cette découverte pourrait nous aider à les sauver

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Sophie Lund Rasmussen, Research fellow in Ecology and Conservation, University of Oxford

En Europe, des millions de hérissons meurent en traversant les routes, mais une découverte ouvre la voie à un système d’alerte qui pourrait les empêcher de traverser à des moments dangereux.


Le hérisson est l’un des mammifères sauvages les plus connus et les plus appréciés d’Europe. Beaucoup de personnes les rencontrent dans leur jardin, entendent leur reniflement au crépuscule ou aperçoivent leur silhouette épineuse se déplacer dans la nuit.

Malheureusement, partout en Europe, les populations de hérissons diminuent rapidement. Le hérisson européen est désormais classé comme « quasi menacé » sur la liste rouge de l’Union internationale pour la conservation de la nature (IUCN) pour l’Europe. Il est devenu urgent de comprendre pourquoi cela se produit et ce qui peut être fait de manière réaliste pour enrayer ou inverser cette tendance.

Les nouvelles recherches que j’ai effectuées avec mon équipe montrent que les hérissons peuvent entendre des ultrasons. Grâce à cette découverte, il serait possible de concevoir des dispositifs sonores dissuasifs ciblant spécifiquement les hérissons, sans déranger les humains ni leurs animaux de compagnie. Ainsi, les signaux ultrasonores pourraient à l’avenir avertir les hérissons de l’approche de véhicules ou les éloigner des machines dangereuses.

C’est important, car l’une des plus grandes menaces pour les hérissons provient de la circulation routière. On estime que les voitures tuent chaque année un nombre considérable de hérissons à travers l’Europe, certaines études suggérant que jusqu’à un sur trois de ces animaux pourrait mourir chaque année sur les routes.

Les hérissons ne sont tout simplement pas adaptés aux infrastructures modernes. Leur principale stratégie de défense a évolué pour leur permettre d’échapper aux prédateurs naturels qui détectent les mouvements dans l’obscurité. Ils se figent, évaluent la menace, puis s’enfuient ou se recroquevillent en une boule épineuse. Face à un véhicule roulant à grande vitesse, cette stratégie leur est fatale.

Le naturaliste et réalisateur britannique David Attenborough liste des moyens d’aider les hérissons à survivre.

Les routes fragmentent également les paysages, ce qui, chez les hérissons, provoque des difficultés de trouver de la nourriture, des partenaires et de nouveaux habitats. Lorsque cela s’ajoute à des obstacles tels que des clôtures massives, une agriculture intensive, des jardins où l’on utilise des pesticides et l’utilisation généralisée de machines, comme les débroussailleuses et les tondeuses à gazon robotisées, il devient évident que le problème ne réside pas dans le comportement des hérissons. C’est l’environnement créé par les humains qui est en cause.

Le son peut-il être une solution ?

Pendant des années, je me suis posé la même question : les humains pourraient-ils avertir les hérissons avant qu’un danger ne survienne ? Pourrions-nous les éloigner des routes et des machines sans déranger les gens ?

Pour explorer cette possibilité, j’ai dû commencer par une question étonnamment simple : que peuvent réellement entendre les hérissons ?

J’ai constitué une équipe pluridisciplinaire composée d’experts spécialisés dans l’imagerie, la bioacoustique (étude de ce que les animaux entendent), le comportement animal, l’écologie des hérissons, l’expérimentation animale et l’anesthésie chez les hérissons.

À l’aide de microscanners haute résolution d’un hérisson qui avait été euthanasié dans un centre de sauvetage de la faune sauvage pour des raisons de bien-être, l’équipe a construit un modèle tridimensionnel de l’oreille moyenne et interne.

Le modèle a montré que les hérissons ont des os de l’oreille moyenne très petits et denses ainsi qu’une articulation partiellement fusionnée entre le tympan et le premier de ces os. Cela rend l’ensemble de la chaîne osseuse plus rigide, ce qui lui permet de transmettre efficacement les sons très aigus, une caractéristique des animaux, tels que les chauves-souris écholocalisatrices, qui peuvent entendre les ultrasons.

Les scans ont également révélé que les hérissons ont un petit étrier (le plus petit os de l’oreille moyenne qui relie la chaîne des os de l’oreille à la cochlée remplie de liquide de l’oreille interne). Or, un étrier plus petit et plus léger peut vibrer plus rapidement, ce qui lui permet de transmettre des ondes sonores à haute fréquence. La cochlée s’est également avérée relativement courte et compacte, ce qui lui permet de mieux traiter les vibrations ultrasoniques.

Les ultrasons désignent les fréquences sonores supérieures à 20 kHz, au-delà de la limite supérieure de l’audition humaine. Mais l’anatomie seule ne suffit pas à prouver quoi que ce soit. Pour confirmer ce que les hérissons pouvaient réellement entendre, nous avions besoin de mesures directes. Mais comment mesurer l’audition d’un hérisson ?

La mesure de l’audition des hérissons

Nous avons testé l’audition de 20 hérissons européens à l’aide d’enregistrements de réponses auditives du tronc cérébral. Sous anesthésie légère, de petites électrodes placées juste sous la peau des hérissons ont mesuré leur activité cérébrale pendant leur sommeil profond. Pendant ce temps, nous avons diffusé des sons couvrant une large gamme de fréquences et de pulsations. Si les hérissons pouvaient les entendre, leur activité cérébrale l’indiquait. Après ces tests, les hérissions étaient en bonne santé et prêts à être relâchés dans la nature le lendemain soir.

Les résultats ont été frappants. Les hérissons entendaient des sons compris entre environ 4 kHz et au moins 85 kHz, avec une sensibilité maximale autour de 40 kHz, soit bien au-delà de la gamme des ultrasons. Les hérissons peuvent donc entendre des sons que les humains, les chiens et les chats ne peuvent pas entendre. Tout cela pourrait changer la donne pour la conservation des hérissons.

En théorie, cela permettrait aux scientifiques d’utiliser des signaux ultrasoniques pour avertir les hérissons de l’approche de véhicules ou les éloigner de machines potentiellement dangereuses.

De nombreuses questions restent toutefois en suspens. Quels sons sont efficaces ? Les hérissons s’habituent-ils à certains bruits et finissent-ils par les ignorer ? Quelle est la portée des signaux ultrasoniques ?

Des recherches supplémentaires sont désormais nécessaires pour concevoir des répulsifs sonores efficaces et bénéfiques pour les hérissons, mais il s’agit là d’un pas en avant significatif. Qui sait, peut-être que l’industrie automobile pourrait contribuer au financement de ces recherches ?

The Conversation

Sophie Lund Rasmussen ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Les hérissons ont l’ouïe fine et cette découverte pourrait nous aider à les sauver – https://theconversation.com/les-herissons-ont-lou-e-fine-et-cette-decouverte-pourrait-nous-aider-a-les-sauver-278156

Can animals sense earthquakes?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rachel Grant, Senior Lecturer in Bioscience, London South Bank University

Roomanald/Shutterstock

For centuries, unusual animal behaviour before earthquakes has been reported worldwide. Livestock becoming restless, wildlife disappearing and snakes emerging from hibernation in the middle of winter. For a long time, scientists dismissed such observations as folklore.

In recent years, however, systematic research has begun to explore whether animals genuinely respond to environmental changes preceding major earthquakes. Although earthquakes are hard to predict even for humans, several studies suggest intriguing patterns in animal behaviour before seismic events.

As the world population increases, more people will be affected when earthquakes happen, making this research more important than ever.

My own research journey began with a serendipitous observation in Italy. I was studying the effects of moon phases on toad reproduction at San Ruffino Lake in 2009, when the toads disappeared for five days. They returned only after a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck the city of L’Aquila, about 50 miles away.

This observation formed the basis of my 2010 study showing that 96% of common toads abandoned their breeding site five days before the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. It was one of the first studies to quantify a shift in wild amphibian behaviour before seismic activity. Amphibians’ permeable skin makes them especially sensitive to changes in water chemistry which could make their behaviour a potential early warning of seismic activity.

I also conducted a multi-species study of Yanachaga National Park, Peru, before a major earthquake in 2011. A charity called Wildlife Insights (formerly Team Network) places cameras in many locations in national parks for conservation monitoring. I looked for parks where a large earthquake had occurred and analysed the charity’s photographs for Yanachaga National Park.

The motion-activated cameras recorded a sharp decline in animal activity in the weeks leading up to the quake. Daily counts fell from typical values of around five to 15 separate animal records per day to fewer than five, across all seven orders of vertebrates in the forest. In the final 24 hours before the quake, animal movements completely ceased.

I compared records from around the time of the earthquake to seismically quiet periods in the same season. I found that during less seismically active times, animal numbers stayed constant.

In Peru, the steep decline in activity was pronounced not only in small and medium sized rodents such as pacas and capybaras but also in bigger animals like long nosed armadillos. This “silencing” of the forest suggests that earthquake-related cues affect entire animal communities rather than just one species.

It’s not just wildlife

Research has shown that livestock around the world, particularly cows, also show signs of pre-seismic behavioural and physiological change.

Close up of brown and white cows
Cows seem particularly prone to unusual behaviour before an earthquake.
cctm/Shutterstock

There are numerous reports of cows panicking and wandering around in areas where they would not normally be seen. For example, stories that cows converged on San Francisco’s Chinatown in 1906 prior to a large earthquake which killed 3,000 people. In 2012, a blog post circulated on the internet showing photographs of cows entering a suburb of Malaysia’s capital city, Kuala Lumpur, and feeding in gardens, two days prior to a magnitude 8.6 earthquake off the coast of Sumatra.

Several Japanese studies have monitored dairy cows using automated milking and activity systems. These studies have reported modest but statistically significant reductions in milk yield and changes in rumination or restlessness in the days preceding some local earthquakes.

Pets seem to be affected too. In 2011, a massive magnitude 9.1 earthquake struck off the northeast coast of Honshu in Japan, generating a tsunami that disabled three nuclear reactors. Post earthquake questionnaires surveyed 1,259 dog owners and 703 cat owners about their pet’s behaviour before the earthquake. About 19% of dog owners and 16% of cat owners reported unusual behaviour. Restiveness was a dominant behaviour in both species, usually within one day prior to the quake. It’s important to note though, that post-event recollections are not considered as scientifically robust as data collected in real time.

What might animals be sensing?

The key question is not whether animals behave differently, but why.

One leading hypothesis, proposed by Friedemann Freund (a scientist for NASA), focuses on environmental changes caused by stress building up in rocks as tectonic plates shift, prior to large earthquakes, releasing electrically charged particles.

These particles can alter the properties of air and soil in the area by increasing the number of positive airborne ions (electrically charged molecules) and appear to affect stress levels and behaviour in animals (including humans). More research is needed but the phenomenon may help explain the changes in animal behaviour before the Italian and Peruvian earthquakes.

However there are many other cues which could contribute to unusual animal behaviour before earthquakes. For example vibrations, disturbances to the local electromagnetic field or sounds outside of human hearing range. We still don’t know exactly which signals, or combination of cues, explains the behaviour.

Despite growing evidence that animals can sense environmental changes preceding earthquakes, the scientific community remains cautious. Several studies have found unusual animal behaviour before earthquakes could later be explained by normal seasonal activity.

Then there’s the fact that earthquakes are rare, which makes the phenomenon difficult to study. I believe animals simply move away from unpleasant or unusual environmental changes, rather than “predicting” earthquakes.

Of ants and earthquakes

There are ongoing studies that may help us learn more about animal behaviour and earthquakes. A systematic trial called Animal Alerts is underway in Lima, Peru, an area with a high level of seismic activity. Researchers have fitted dogs with smart collars which record their heart rate, movement and other parameters in real time.

A 2013 study carried out long-term observations of red wood ant mounds on active faults (cracks in the Earth’s crust that have recently moved and may cause earthquakes). The researchers reported alterations in daily activity rhythms of the ants living on these fault lines. Building on this work, my postgraduate research student, Shanza, is studying earthquake precursors for her master’s degree. She aims to identify which animal species are most likely to respond to early earthquake signals such as positive ions or magnetic field fluctuations. She then plans to simulate some of these conditions in the lab, using ants as a model species.

Animal data alone are unlikely to give reliable earthquake warnings. But the more we can combine animal data with environmental measurements, the closer we will come to reliable forecasts of earthquake hazard risk.

The Conversation

Rachel Grant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Can animals sense earthquakes? – https://theconversation.com/can-animals-sense-earthquakes-275464

Formula 1’s 2026 rules: new sustainability rules are changing the way races are won

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paolo Aversa, Professor of Strategy, King’s College London

The first races under Formula 1’s new regulations delivered exactly what the sport’s rule-makers had hoped for: more overtaking. At the recent Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne, passes on track nearly tripled compared with the previous year. At the Chinese Grand Prix over the weekend the increase was less extreme, but still noticeable.

This revealed something unexpected about Formula 1’s new generation of cars. Many of the passes did not come from the classic ingredients of racing – a driver braking later into a corner, carrying more speed through the apex, or finding a daring line. Instead, they often happened when one car temporarily ran out of electrical power.

Under one of the most significant rule changes in the sport’s history, roughly half of a Formula 1 car’s output now comes from its electric motor. Drivers must carefully manage when their batteries deploy or regenerate energy. When the battery runs low, the car temporarily becomes vulnerable. Once the battery is recharged by recovering energy from braking, the driver can attack again. These cycles can create sudden swings in performance within a race.

This is raising questions about whether Formula 1’s push for sustainability is changing how races are won.

A greener engine era

Under the new regulations, the cars still look like Formula 1 machines. But the way they generate and deploy power is very different. The familiar turbocharged combustion engine remains, but it now shares power almost equally with the electric system.

The combustion engine also now runs on 100% sustainable fuel, designed to be carbon-neutral over its lifecycle. The cars themselves are smaller and lighter, with new active aerodynamic systems aimed at reducing air resistance on straights.

Major rule changes often trigger waves of experimentation as teams search for new advantages, and managing energy has suddenly become central to racing strategy. In a study published in Organization Science, my colleagues and I showed that Formula 1 teams face a classic strategic trade-off: incremental improvements are safe but rarely transformative, while radical innovations can produce breakthrough performance – or spectacular failure.

A new kind of racing

The Australian Grand Prix offered an early glimpse of how racing is being affected. Early in the race, Mercedes driver George Russell and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc repeatedly overtook each other within a few laps. But the pattern was unusual: neither driver was consistently faster. Instead, their cars were alternating between phases of energy depletion and recharge. The result looked less like traditional racing and more like a strategic ebb and flow of electrical power.

In the new hybrid era, drivers may need to adjust braking points or racing lines to regenerate electricity efficiently. They may even need to lift their foot from the throttle when in past seasons the same situation would have called for flat-out acceleration.

Some drivers have already expressed concerns that the new cars could feel less instinctive if energy constraints become too restrictive. If success increasingly depends on managing software systems and electrical energy flows, some drivers may feel that the essence of their craft is shifting. After the Chinese Grand Prix, veteran racer Fernando Alonso called this the “battery world championships”, and recent champion Max Verstappen likened it to Mario Kart.

The F1 sustainability paradox

Formula 1 has long argued that it operates like a moonshot laboratory, where extreme competition accelerates development. Technologies refined in racing have later appeared elsewhere, from advanced braking and handling systems in road cars to sensor technologies now used in hospitals. Even the choreography of Formula 1 pit stops has inspired procedures used by emergency medical teams.

The new generation of engines aims to extend that tradition by demonstrating sustainable innovation through advanced hybrid systems and sustainable fuels. But there is a paradox here. Early estimates suggest Formula 1’s new synthetic, net-zero fuel could cost hundreds of dollars per litre, more than ten times the cost of conventional racing fuel – and a hundred or more times the cost of regular petrol.

While this shows what is technically possible, unless production costs fall dramatically these fuels may remain confined to racing or high-performance supercars. In other words, the sport may develop impressive sustainable technologies – but ones that remain too expensive for everyday mobility.

Racing for the future

None of this means the regulations have failed. Formula 1 has a long history of dramatic rule changes producing awkward early seasons before engineers unlock their potential. Previous technological revolutions such as ground-effect aerodynamics in the late 1970s or the hybrid power units introduced in 2009 and then in 2014 required years of refinement before teams fully mastered them. Something similar may happen this year.

The first two races of the new season offered a first hint of tension facing the sport, but whether it ultimately produces better racing remains uncertain. At times, the difference between new and old F1 resembles the contrast between choreographed WWE matches and Olympic wrestling: more visually dramatic, yet less about raw athletic contest.

What is clear is that the 2026 regulations have already begun to reshape Formula 1 in ways few expected.

The Conversation

Paolo Aversa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Formula 1’s 2026 rules: new sustainability rules are changing the way races are won – https://theconversation.com/formula-1s-2026-rules-new-sustainability-rules-are-changing-the-way-races-are-won-278342

The shot that could stop cancer before it begins – and why getting it early matters

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jiayao Lei, Assistant Professor in Epidemiology, Karolinska Institutet

Halfpoint/Shutterstock

When 12-year-olds receive a letter from the school nurse about the HPV vaccine, their reactions are often mixed. Some students worry about the needle. Others wonder why they need a vaccine for something they have never heard of.

What many of them may not realise is that this routine school vaccination protects against a virus that can cause cancer later in life. For many students, the letter is the first time they encounter a remarkable idea: that a vaccine can help prevent cancer before it even starts.

The evidence for that protection is now becoming clear. In our recent study, we analysed long-term health data from girls and young women followed for nearly two decades and found that the HPV vaccine greatly reduces the risk of cervical cancer.

This matters because cervical cancer remains one of the most common cancers affecting women worldwide, despite being largely preventable. Importantly, the protection does not appear to weaken over time.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the most common viruses in the world. Most people will get it at some point in their lives, often without knowing it. In many cases, the body clears the virus naturally. But some types of HPV can remain in the body for years and gradually damage cells. Over time, this can lead to cancer.

How the HPV vaccine prevents cancer

HPV causes almost all cervical cancers and can also lead to other cancers in both men and women, including cancers of the throat, anus, penis, vagina and vulva. Because these cancers usually develop slowly, often many years after infection, preventing the virus early is the most effective way to stop them.

That is exactly what the HPV vaccine is designed to do.

To understand how well the vaccine works in real life, we followed 926,362 girls and young women in Sweden over 18 years in a nationwide population study. Some had received the HPV vaccine, while others had not.

Over time, far fewer people who were vaccinated developed cervical cancer compared with those who were not vaccinated. This shows that the vaccine helped protect many people from getting cervical cancer.

We also found that the age at vaccination matters. Girls who received the vaccine before the age of 17 were much less likely to develop cervical cancer later in life. In fact, their risk was about four times lower than girls who had not been vaccinated. People vaccinated later still gained some protection, but the benefit was smaller.

The reason is straightforward. The vaccine prevents HPV infection, but it cannot remove an infection that has already occurred. Vaccinating earlier, ideally before exposure to the virus, allows the immune system to build protection in advance. This is why HPV vaccination is often offered to young teenagers through school vaccination programmes.

Lasting protection

A common question about vaccines is whether their protection fades over time. The results of our study are reassuring.

We followed participants for up to 18 years after vaccination and found no evidence that protection declined over time. Once the vaccine created protection, it continued working year after year. Long-lasting protection means the vaccine can guard against the virus during the years when it matters most.

Many countries now recommend HPV vaccination for both girls and boys, usually in early adolescence. Vaccinating boys protects them from HPV-related cancers and also helps reduce the spread of the virus.

For many adults today, the HPV vaccine did not exist when they were teenagers. Younger generations now have a powerful opportunity: they can prevent certain cancers before they begin.

A future where cancers caused by HPV can largely be prevented may begin with a simple vaccine given in adolescence.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The shot that could stop cancer before it begins – and why getting it early matters – https://theconversation.com/the-shot-that-could-stop-cancer-before-it-begins-and-why-getting-it-early-matters-277006

From the strait of Hormuz to Malacca, global trade relies almost entirely on these five narrow waterways

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gokcay Balci, Lecturer in Sustainable Freight Transport and Logistics, University of Leeds

The conflict in Iran has disrupted energy and commodity markets. Iran has effectively closed the narrow strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point, attacking more than a dozen ships over the past two weeks that have tried to sail through the waterway.

Donald Trump has been pressing US allies in Europe to help secure the strait, warning on March 15 that it will be “very bad for the future of Nato” if they do not support American efforts to reopen Hormuz. But Iran has vowed to keep the waterway closed.

The disruption to Gulf shipping has caused Brent crude oil prices to jump sharply from around US$70 (£53) a barrel before the crisis began to more than US$100. Global trade in a wide range of other goods – from consumer products to agricultural raw materials – is being affected too.

But the crisis has also highlighted a broader issue: that global trade depends on a surprisingly small number of narrow waterways, which are often called maritime “chokepoints”. Here is a guide to the chokepoints that matter most for global trade, and how vulnerable each one is to disruption.

1. Strait of Hormuz

Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, it carries around 39% of the seaborne crude oil trade and 19% of natural gas. Unlike most trade chokepoints, there is no viable alternative to Hormuz for Gulf states to export their energy.

Iran has periodically threatened to close the strait of Hormuz since the 1980s. But the disruption caused to shipping since late February, when the US and Israel first launched airstrikes across Iran, is the most serious escalation in decades. It has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history and soaring global oil prices.

The consequences of the current disruption to Gulf shipping extend beyond energy. The Gulf region handles over 26 million containers annually, with major fertiliser exports passing through here too. Prolonged shipping disruption will therefore have a direct effect on global food production costs.

A map of the strait of Hormuz in the Gulf region.
The strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since the outbreak of the war in Iran, is the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
Peter Hermes Furian / Shutterstock

2. Suez canal

The Suez canal links the Red Sea with the Mediterranean, cutting at least ten days off journey times between Asia and Europe. The waterway handles 10% of global seaborne trade, including 22% of container traffic, 20% of car shipments and 10% of crude oil.

Controlled by Egypt, it is not easily threatened directly. But the waterway is not immune to accidents, as demonstrated by the grounding of the Ever Given container ship in 2021. The vessel blocked the canal for six days, disrupting nearly US$10 billion in trade.

The bigger vulnerability of this chokepoint is the Bab el-Mandeb, the strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea. Attacks on commercial shipping by the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen between 2023 and 2025, which it carried out in response to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, forced many operators to reroute around Africa.

This cut traffic through the Suez canal from over 26,000 vessels in 2023 to around 13,000 in 2024. Houthi leaders have recently threatened to resume attacks on commercial shipping in retaliation for the Israeli and US attacks on Iran, warning in official communications that their “fingers are on the trigger”.

3. Panama canal

Connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, the Panama canal handles around 2.5% of global seaborne trade – a modest share, but concentrated in high-value and strategic cargo such as containerised goods, cars and grain. The canal carries around 40% of all US containerised shipments, valued at US$270 billion annually.

Its vulnerability stems both from the climate and geopolitics. In 2023 and 2024, severe droughts caused water levels in the canal’s freshwater reservoirs to fall sharply, forcing restrictions on vessel numbers and size. Then, in early 2025, Trump threatened to take control of the canal. He cited concerns over the operation of some of its ports by Hutchison, a Hong Kong-based company.

4. Strait of Malacca

The Malacca strait is the busiest shipping lane on Earth. It carries 24% of all global seaborne trade, including 45% of seaborne crude oil and 26% of cars. The waterway is also home to Singapore, which hosts the second-busiest container port in the world.

Malacca is the primary gateway through which China, Japan and South Korea receive their energy imports. Nearly 80% of China’s oil imports pass through here, a dependence Beijing calls the “Malacca dilemma”.

Piracy remains a persistent concern, with over 130 incidents reported in the Malacca strait in 2025. But the greater risk is geopolitical. Any escalation in tensions between China and the US or India over maritime dominance in the region could severely disrupt passage through the strait.

Malacca is also exposed to natural disasters, including tsunamis and volcanic activity. The Boxing Day tsunami in 2004, for example, caused significant damage to coastal infrastructure at the strait’s southern entrance.

A map showing the strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia.
China refers to its heavy reliance on the narrow strait of Malacca for energy imports and trade as the ‘Malacca dilemma’.
Peter Hermes Furian / Shutterstock

5. Turkish straits

The Turkish straits – the Bosphorus and Dardanelles – are the only sea route between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. They carry 3% of global seaborne trade. While this share may appear small, it includes around 20% of global wheat exports from Ukraine, Russia and Romania.

At just 700 metres wide at its narrowest point, running through the centre of Istanbul in Turkey, navigation is complex and minor collisions are common. Under the Montreux convention, Turkey controls military access to the straits, a power Ankara has used since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine to restrict the movement of warships while keeping commercial traffic open.

Further escalation in the Black Sea area could disrupt this balance and shake global grain markets. The region’s high seismic activity adds another layer of risk.

The current crisis in the strait of Hormuz has thrown into sharp relief just how vulnerable global trade is to disruption due to its reliance on a handful of narrow waterways. But the five waterways mentioned above are not the only trade chokepoints.

There are as many as 24 maritime chokepoints in the world, including other major waterways like the Taiwan, Dover and Bering straits. Each of these waterways are exposed to their own combination of geopolitical tension, climate change, piracy, accidents or natural disasters.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. From the strait of Hormuz to Malacca, global trade relies almost entirely on these five narrow waterways – https://theconversation.com/from-the-strait-of-hormuz-to-malacca-global-trade-relies-almost-entirely-on-these-five-narrow-waterways-278329

Why harmful content keeps reaching children online – and what advertising has to do with it

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Karen Middleton, Senior Lecturer in Marketing and Advertising, University of Portsmouth

Matryoha/Shutterstock

Children today can encounter harmful material online with alarming ease, including violent, sexual and self-harm content. While this is often treated as a moderation failure, the deeper cause is economic.

Much of the internet is built on a business model that rewards attention above all else. In simple terms, algorithms that recommend content do not meaningfully distinguish between helpful, neutral and harmful material. Described as “topic agnostic”, their primary task is to keep users watching, scrolling and clicking.

Why? Because attention drives advertising revenue.

Most online platforms appear free to use, but they are largely funded through advertising. The longer users stay online, the more adverts they see and the more valuable they become to advertisers. As a result, platform design is shaped by what scholars call the “attention economy” – a system in which human attention is the resource being bought and sold.

Harvard scholar Shoshana Zuboff describes this model as “surveillance capitalism”: platforms collect behavioural data, predict what users will do next, and optimise systems to influence behaviour in ways that generate profit.

This matters because research consistently shows that emotionally charged content – material that provokes fear, outrage, anxiety or shock – generates higher engagement. Studies of recommender systems have found that algorithmic ranking tends to amplify content that keeps users emotionally activated, regardless of its social value (or otherwise).

For adults this can distort public debate and political discourse. For children, the consequences can be more serious because their online habits and emotional responses are still developing. Young people are more sensitive to social comparison, distressing narratives and emotionally intense material. When recommendation systems detect that a young user pauses on, searches for or engages with such content, they often respond by delivering more of it.

The result is what media researchers describe as a feedback loop. Engagement signals drive recommendations; recommendations increase exposure; exposure deepens engagement. Users are rarely targeted by a person. They are targeted by optimisation.

Public debate often assumes the solution is faster removal of harmful posts. Moderation is important, but there is a deeper issue. Harmful content continues to spread because the underlying incentives remain unchanged.

If platform revenue depends on attention, systems will always prioritise content that captures it most effectively. Removing individual posts does little if the algorithmic logic promoting engagement remains intact.

This helps explain why controversies around online harms keep resurfacing despite new safety tools and policies – and why proposed social media bans are unlikely to address the root cause. Researchers in platform governance increasingly argue that safety requires addressing system design and incentives, not just individual pieces of content.

The role of advertising – and why it matters now

Advertising rarely features in public conversations about online safety, yet it sits at the centre of the ecosystem. Advertising revenue funds recommendation systems, data collection practices and engagement optimisation strategies.

This does not mean advertisers intend harm. In fact, many brands are unaware of where their adverts appear within complex programmatic advertising supply chains. But the economic reality remains: engagement – including engagement with harmful material – generates value.

Teenagers on phones
Engagement drives revenue.
Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

Scrutiny is growing. In the UK, regulators are implementing the Online Safety Act, lawsuits concerning social media harms are emerging internationally, and researchers are gaining access to internal platform documents through litigation. Together, these developments are lifting what has long been described as a “black box” surrounding platform decision-making.

The digital environment did not evolve naturally. It was built through choices – technical, economic and political – made over decades. And because it was designed, it can be redesigned.

The conversation now moving into public view is not simply about banning phones or blaming young users. It is about incentives. What kinds of online environments do current business models reward? And what alternatives might prioritise wellbeing alongside innovation?

For people working inside advertising and technology industries, this moment may feel particularly significant. Greater public awareness means fewer opportunities to claim that online systems are too complex to understand or influence.

If safer digital spaces are the goal, the debate must move beyond individual content towards the structures that determine why that content spreads in the first place. Understanding how advertising, data and algorithms interact is not a technical detail. It is the key to building an internet that protects children rather than profiting from their attention.

The Conversation

Karen Middleton is affiliated with Conscious Advertising Network

ref. Why harmful content keeps reaching children online – and what advertising has to do with it – https://theconversation.com/why-harmful-content-keeps-reaching-children-online-and-what-advertising-has-to-do-with-it-277527

Kent meningitis outbreak: what students need to know

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Manal Mohammed, Senior Lecturer, Medical Microbiology, University of Westminster

Prostock-studio/Shutterstock

If you are a student in the UK, news of an outbreak of meningitis affecting university students in Kent may be causing you alarm.

The UK Health Security Agency has confirmed 13 cases of invasive meningococcal disease, a severe infection that can cause meningitis and septicaemia (blood poisoning), and is providing antibiotics and guidance to students and their close contacts. Two young people, a year 13 school pupil and a university student, have died. Others are seriously ill.

Why meningitis outbreaks happen at universities

Meningococcal disease is caused by Neisseria meningitidis bacteria. Although many people can carry the bacteria harmlessly in their nose or throat, very occasionally it invades the bloodstream or central nervous system and causes life-threatening illness. Meningitis is an inflammation of the membranes around the brain and spinal cord.

Meningococcal disease spreads through close contact with respiratory droplets. This could be through kissing, sharing drinks or utensils, and coughing and sneezing. This is what makes the risk higher in settings where people live, study and socialise closely together, such as university campuses.

Outbreaks such as the recent one in Kent, especially in communal settings like universities or schools, are less common than individual sporadic cases. While the overall risk remains low, the proportion of cases among young adults and students is higher than in older age groups simply because of the social mixing and living arrangements typical of school and university life.

How to reduce your risk

There is no guaranteed way to eliminate risk entirely, but several practical steps can help.

The first is vaccination. In the UK, there are routine immunisation programmes against key meningococcal strains. The MenACWY vaccine is usually offered in school to protect against four common meningococcal groups and can be given up to age 25 if missed. The MenB vaccine is given to infants. Whether older teenagers have had it varies because the risk profile and vaccine history differ. The MenB vaccine is available privately for teenagers and adults.

So check your vaccination history. You can do this by looking over your vaccination records, asking your GP practice, checking the NHS app or looking at your university or travel clinic records. If you can’t find a record of having a vaccination against meningitis, doctors may recommend vaccinating again – receiving an extra dose is generally safe.

Talk to your friends about their vaccination history, too. People can carry meningococcal bacteria without symptoms. Awareness of your own vaccination status and encouraging friends to be up to date increases community protection.

Even if someone has been vaccinated, they may still be advised to take preventive antibiotics if they were a close contact of a case of meningococcal disease.

Hands in blue gloves putting plaster on woman's upper arm
It’s a good idea to check your vaccination status.
Kmpzzz/Shutterstock

Good hygiene is important. Simple measures like covering your mouth when coughing, not sharing drinks or utensils, washing hands regularly and avoiding close face to face contact when someone is ill can help reduce transmission.

What to look out for

One of the biggest challenges with meningococcal disease is that its early symptoms can look like flu or a bad cold, making it easy to overlook until it becomes severe. According to UK public health guidance, early symptoms can include fever or high temperature, a very bad headache, vomiting or nausea, muscle and joint pain, cold hands and feet, and rapid breathing. Symptoms can develop in different sequences and progress quickly.

As the disease progresses, more specific and serious “red flag” symptoms may appear. These include a stiff neck, confusion or delirium, dislike of bright lights, severe sleepiness or difficulty waking, seizures, and a rash that does not fade under pressure. This last is a key sign of septicaemia, and you can use the “glass test” to help identify it. Press a clear glass firmly against the glass. If it doesn’t fade under this pressure, contact a doctor straight away.

It’s crucial to stress that not all cases will show a rash, and no single symptom alone proves meningitis. But the combination of severe headache with fever, stiff neck, rash or rapid deterioration should prompt urgent suspicion.

If a friend shows symptoms

If you notice a friend exhibiting any concerning signs – especially rapid worsening over hours – take them seriously. Public health advice is clear: if symptoms are worrying or escalating, seek medical help immediately. In the UK, that means contacting NHS 111 for advice, or calling 999 if they are seriously unwell.

Check on your friend regularly, don’t dismiss symptoms as “just a hangover” and err on the side of urgency when in doubt. Early treatment with antibiotics can be lifesaving.

Acting quickly is vital

The Kent outbreak is a stark reminder that although meningococcal disease is uncommon, when it does occur it can progress rapidly and have devastating consequences. Students and young people, in particular, should be aware that illness can be serious even in previously healthy individuals. Early recognition and rapid medical response are vital and vaccination and awareness are primary tools for prevention.

While public health authorities work to contain outbreaks, the first line of defence is individuals and communities. Knowing the symptoms, acting quickly if someone becomes ill, and encouraging vaccination can make the difference between a contained case and a fatal outcome. In meningitis, the disease can escalate within hours. Early recognition and immediate action can save lives.

The Conversation

Manal Mohammed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Kent meningitis outbreak: what students need to know – https://theconversation.com/kent-meningitis-outbreak-what-students-need-to-know-278449

Canada’s immigration system is going digital, and accountability must keep pace

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Marika Jeziorek, PhD Candidate in Global Governance, Balsillie School of International Affairs

Canada’s immigration system has long played a central role in the country’s economic and social development. Immigration accounts for most of Canada’s population growth and helps address labour market shortages across sectors. Settlement services support newcomers as they build lives and communities across the country.

As the number of people seeking to visit and immigrate to Canada grows, the way applications are handled is becoming more digital. This shift is reshaping how applicants interact with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

Through its Digital Platform Modernization initiative, the department has been rolling out new online client accounts, automated processing tools and digital visas as part of a broader multi-year transformation.

However, as processes become more automated, it can be harder to see how decisions are shaped or how to challenge them. The growing use of automated tools has long been linked to changes in accountability and institutional practice.

In immigration administration, these changes are becoming visible in everyday interactions with digital systems.

Operational pressures

Canada processes millions of temporary and permanent immigration applications each year, placing significant pressure on administrative systems and processing capacity.

Much of this work is currently done through the current Global Case Management System (GCMS). This system was introduced 20 years ago when immigration processing relied heavily on paper records and centralized operations.

However, the system was designed for a different era of immigration administration. When GCMS was first implemented, immigration processing still relied heavily on paper documentation and centralized administrative workflows.

Over the past two decades, both the scale and complexity of Canada’s immigration system have expanded significantly. As a result, IRCC has begun developing a new case-management platform intended to replace the GCMS as part of the department’s broader digitization initiative.

A digitized process

Immigration administration involves some of the most consequential decisions the federal government makes about a person’s legal status, mobility and protection. Today, most people applying for Canadian visas or residency begin the process online rather than through direct interaction with an immigration official.

Applicants typically interact first with online portals, automated messages and document-verification systems before their files reach a decision-maker.

These changes are institutional as well as administrative. Canadian immigration law now allows electronic systems to assist officers in processing applications and making decisions.

A woman sitting on a couch working on a laptop
As the number of people seeking to visit and immigrate to Canada grows, the way applications are handled is becoming more digital.
(Unsplash/Brooke Cagle)

Advanced data analytics help identify routine applications and speed up processing. Across the federal public service, similar technologies are increasingly used to support administrative decision-making.

Client portals also shape how applicants interact with the state by organizing how documents are submitted, how additional information is requested and how applicants receive updates about their cases.

Migration files are increasingly managed as digital case records that move across government systems. This means applications may be evaluated at several stages of processing rather than only when an officer makes the final decision.

For example, automated triage systems can classify applications as routine before an officer reviews them, while online client portals structure how applicants submit documents and receive updates throughout processing.

Automation and the applicant experience

While these reforms are designed to improve efficiency, they are also reshaping how applicants experience the immigration system.

For many migrants, immigration now involves prolonged interaction with digital systems, document verification procedures and automated communication channels. Applicants may need to repeatedly upload documents, respond to automated requests for additional information or monitor online portals for updates over months or even years.

Limited visibility into timelines or decision pathways can make it difficult to understand how cases are being assessed, resulting in prolonged uncertainty and new administrative burdens.

These experiences may appear to be technical issues, but they also reflect deeper changes in how immigration administration now operates.

The shift toward digital and automated administration also affects how immigration officers work. Automation and triage tools have been introduced to manage workload and improve productivity, while also reshaping how responsibilities are distributed across technical systems and administrative workflows.

Caseworkers are increasingly operating within infrastructures that pre-classify applications and structure decision processes. But instead of addressing the source of administrative strain, it’s simply reorganized.

Keeping automation accountable

Canada already has several oversight mechanisms in place, including algorithmic impact assessments required by directives on automated decision-making.

These measures represent meaningful progress toward responsible digital governance. However, as immigration administration becomes increasingly automated and platform-based, additional safeguards are needed to ensure accountability keeps pace.

Possible measures include expanding public documentation about automated triage systems, introducing independent review processes and ensuring clear pathways for human review. Such steps would better align digital modernization with Canada’s existing oversight frameworks for automated decision-making.

Canada’s immigration system is often described as rights-based and grounded in equity, fairness and inclusion. Maintaining public trust in that system depends on ensuring administrative decision systems remain transparent, contestable and accountable.

Automation and platform-based administration are reshaping Canada’s migration. Efficiency alone cannot sustain public trust. As Canada modernizes immigration administration, accountability must be built into digital systems as deliberately as the technologies themselves.

The Conversation

Marika Jeziorek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Canada’s immigration system is going digital, and accountability must keep pace – https://theconversation.com/canadas-immigration-system-is-going-digital-and-accountability-must-keep-pace-276741

Municipales : « Le triomphe autoproclamé du RN et de LFI ne correspond pas à la réalité »

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Frédéric Sawicki, professeur de science politique, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

Si les bascules potentielles de grandes villes de gauche à droite (et inversement) sont mises en avant par les médias, elles demeurent rares. Les équipes municipales seront le plus souvent reconduites dans un scrutin qui échappe largement aux partis politiques. Les percées des partis « protestataires », RN et LFI, doivent, par ailleurs, être relativisées. Analyse du premier tour des municipales 2026 avec le politiste Frédéric Sawicki.


The Conversation : Quels sont les principaux enseignements du premier tour des élections municipales 2026, notamment en ce qui concerne l’abstention ?

Frédéric Sawicki : Selon les informations disponibles, le taux d’abstention est de 42,8 %. C’est bien moins que lors des municipales de 2020 qui furent perturbées par l’épidémie de Covid (55,3 %). Mais en 2014, l’abstention était de 36 %. Ces élections confirment donc la tendance continue, depuis le début des années 1990, de baisse de la participation en France, qui touche toutes les élections, sauf la présidentielle. Bien qu’elles soient présentées comme des élections de proximité, les municipales mobilisent moins de six Français·es sur dix.

Le changement de mode de scrutin dans les communes de moins de 1 000 habitants (la loi du 21 mai 2025 leur a imposé un mode de scrutin de liste paritaire et bloquée), qui représentent 70 % des communes françaises, a eu pour effet d’augmenter le nombre de communes où il n’y avait qu’une seule liste. Est-ce que cela a contribué à démobiliser les électeurs ? Il est trop tôt pour le dire.

Dans les grandes villes, les taux de participation sont très contrastés. À Paris, on est à 58,89 %, à Lyon à 64,45 % mais à Roubaix à 37 %. Cela s’explique en partie par un turnover important des populations – avec des personnes qui ne sont pas forcément attachées au territoire et qui ont du mal à identifier les acteurs et les enjeux municipaux. Il y a aussi le fait que beaucoup de décisions importantes sont désormais prises dans l’espace intercommunal, pour lequel les électeurs ne votent pas directement.

Mon autre remarque générale est que les médias se focalisent sur les villes où il y a un suspense, un risque de bascule, en cherchant à tirer des enseignements pour la présidentielle de 2027. Or, il est difficile de déduire de ces élections municipales des tendances générales nettes et des conclusions à propos des échéances nationales de l’an prochain. Les très grandes villes sont des vitrines pour les partis politiques, et pouvoir mettre en avant deux ou trois gains spectaculaires permet très largement de masquer le fait que, globalement, la plupart des maires de France sont reconduits dans leurs fonctions. En vérité, les municipales échappent de plus en plus aux partis politiques dans un contexte où de nombreux maires ne mettent plus en avant d’appartenance partisane, d’où la multiplication des listes « divers » (gauche, centre, droite, voire extrême droite) enregistrées par le ministère de l’intérieur.

Jordan Bardella, président du Rassemblement national (RN), a fait part de sa satisfaction au soir du premier tour en déclarant : « Les Français ont exprimé leur volonté avec clarté et, ce soir encore, une aspiration profonde au changement. » Son triomphalisme est-il justifié ?

F. S. : Le Rassemblement national va disposer mécaniquement en 2026 de beaucoup plus de conseillers municipaux qu’aux élections municipales précédentes. En 2020, il n’avait présenté que 325 listes contre 482 en 2026 si l’on inclut l’UDR d’Éric Ciotti, soit un surcroît de 4 300 candidatures. En revanche, il semble que, pour l’instant, il passe de 13 mairies à environ une vingtaine, ce qui reste modeste. En outre, en dehors de Marseille, Nice et Toulon, il n’est pas en situation d’avoir des conseillers municipaux dans la plupart des grandes villes françaises. Malgré un noyau électoral stabilisé depuis 2022 autour de 30 %, le RN se heurte à un plafond de verre faute d’alliés pour conquérir plus de villes. Là où il ne parvient pas seul à engranger la majorité, il doit compter sur le maintien des listes de ses adversaires pour espérer l’emporter à la faveur d’une triangulaire. Je relativiserais donc largement le message triomphaliste de Jordan Bardella à l’issue du premier tour.

Les Républicains (LR) pourraient-ils être tentés par des alliances avec le RN ?

F. S. : LR a peu de grandes villes, plutôt des villes moyennes et, là encore, les résultats devraient être stables. Le vrai problème de LR, comme du PS, c’est de conserver des élus qui s’affilient au parti plutôt que de jouer la carte « divers droite ».

Bruno Retailleau a appelé à faire barrage à LFI, considéré comme le seul ennemi extérieur à « l’arc républicain ». Est-ce une porte ouverte à des rapprochements avec le RN ? Pour l’instant, il ne semble pas que des fusions soient envisagées, mais il pourrait y avoir des désistements stratégiques entre LR et le RN. À Roubaix, par exemple, assistera-t-on à une fusion de listes LR-RN ou à un appel de la droite à voter RN sans pour autant fusionner ? Je pense qu’il peut surtout y avoir des dérives locales, des candidats divers droite ou anciens LR qui pactisent avec le Rassemblement national contre des postes d’adjoints. Bruno Retailleau ne maîtrise pas tout ce qui se passe localement et il peut fermer les yeux en assurant « Ce ne sont pas de vrais LR ». Cela est possible dans de petites communes, beaucoup moins dans de grandes villes médiatisées, car le risque de perdre une partie des électeurs serait important.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, pour La France insoumise (LFI), s’est félicité d’une « magnifique percée » de son parti. Partagez-vous son analyse ?

F. S. : LFI devrait gagner Roubaix et a déjà gagné Saint-Denis, la plus grande ville de la couronne parisienne, c’est considérable, même s’il faut quand même rappeler qu’à Saint-Denis, c’est grâce à une alliance avec le Parti communiste français, qui, depuis longtemps, essaye de récupérer la ville perdue au profit des socialistes. Deuxième élément, LFI dépasse 10 % dans beaucoup de grandes villes, ce qui leur assure des mandats de conseillers municipaux qu’ils n’avaient quasiment pas jusqu’alors. Cela contribue donc à l’ancrage local d’un parti qui, jusque-là, était une machine présidentielle.

Pour la première fois, LFI a essayé, partout où c’était possible, de présenter des candidats – notamment dans les grandes villes ou dans les banlieues des grandes villes. De façon assez habile, le parti a mis en avant des candidats de la diversité, ce que les autres partis de gauche ont beaucoup plus de mal à faire. Des thématiques nationales et internationales – Gaza – ont été mises en avant, notamment la dénonciation des discriminations.

Reste que la performance de LFI est très contrastée. Si l’on compare aux européennes de 2024, il y a une forte progression à Toulouse, des progrès à Brest et à Clermont-Ferrand, mais pas de progrès à Lille, par exemple. Évry, en région parisienne, était considérée comme gagnable par LFI. Or, le candidat centriste a été élu dès le premier tour. À Paris, LFI a perdu des voix. Aux européennes, LFI y avait totalisé 16,7 % des votes et, dimanche, la liste Chikirou a obtenu 11,7 % : c’est une baisse très importante. Idem pour Nantes, Lyon, Nancy, Montpellier : LFI s’implante mais est loin de réitérer ses scores des européennes où le taux de participation était à peu près identique. Est-ce un effet des prises de position polémiques de Jean-Luc Mélenchon ? Est-ce un effet de l’union de la gauche choisie par le PS, Les Écologistes et le PCF ? Difficile à dire… Dans tous les cas, je relativiserais le « succès » de LFI. Ce qui est certain, en revanche, c’est que LFI pose un problème évident au Parti socialiste et aux écologistes : dans certaines villes, ces derniers ne pourront pas gagner sans alliance ou fusion technique avec le parti de Mélenchon.

Alors qu’ils avaient gagné de nombreuses villes en 2020, Les Écologistes sont-ils en pleine déroute ?

F. S. : Pour ce qui concerne Les Écologistes, il faut rappeler que la performance des villes gagnées en 2020 était en partie le produit de circonstances exceptionnelles : faible taux de participation, succès de Yannick Jadot aux élections européennes de 2019, discrédit des socialistes, mobilisation internationale en faveur du climat. Aujourd’hui, le contexte a complètement changé, et on pouvait s’attendre à des pertes. À Grenoble, à Bordeaux, à Strasbourg, les résultats ne sont pas très bons, mais pas si catastrophiques si on les rapporte, là encore, aux résultats des élections européennes et à l’inexpérience initiale des élus écologistes. Les résultats au bout du compte dépendront des fusions de listes, et la principale ville gérée par Les Écologistes, Lyon, contre tous les pronostics devrait leur rester acquise.

Quels sont les enjeux du second tour pour le PS ?

F. S. : Les dirigeants socialistes sont pris au piège de leurs divisions stratégiques vis-à-vis de LFI. En même temps, la forte autonomie laissée aux candidats locaux par Olivier Faure ouvre la porte à des arrangements pragmatiques. Il y a quelques risques de basculement de villes vers la droite, en cas de refus de désistement ou de fusion avec la liste LFI (Nantes, Brest, Clermont-Ferrand, peut-être Rennes). À Paris, l’avance dont dispose Emmanuel Grégoire semble le mettre relativement à l’abri de Rachida Dati. À Lille, Les Écologistes vont-ils s’allier à LFI contre le maire socialiste ? On va assister à une variété de configurations qui vont peut-être se traduire par des solutions ad hoc, des accords locaux. Ces accords vont-ils changer les relations du PS et de LFI sur le plan national d’ici 2027 ? C’est bien peu probable à court terme, tant les arènes politiques municipales et nationale sont aujourd’hui déconnectées.

Les résultats de Renaissance confirment-ils l’échec du macronisme à s’implanter localement ?

F. S. : Effectivement, Renaissance a raté le coche de l’ancrage local en refusant d’utiliser les moyens du parti pour développer des collectifs locaux. En 2020, le parti d’Emmanuel Macron a tenté de débaucher des élus sortants de centre droit ou de centre gauche sans beaucoup de succès, à la différence d’Horizons d’Édouard Philippe. Renaissance a quelques espoirs à Bordeaux ou à Annecy, mais cela restera maigre, d’autant que Christian Estrosi a de fortes chances d’être battu à Nice. Le parti de Gabriel Attal est totalement absent de Lyon, de Marseille et de Paris – alors que la capitale est un bastion électoral macroniste aux élections nationales. Les macronistes n’ont pas de quoi être optimistes, mais ils ne le sont plus depuis la dissolution de 2024. L’implantation territoriale du centrisme repose aujourd’hui surtout sur Horizons d’Édouard Philippe, l’UDI et le MoDem. Si on veut en faire un test pour 2027, je dirais que ces municipales semblent plus favorables à Édouard Philippe, bien placé au Havre, qu’à Gabriel Attal, qui dirige Renaissance.


Propos recueillis par David Bornstein.

The Conversation

Frédéric Sawicki ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Municipales : « Le triomphe autoproclamé du RN et de LFI ne correspond pas à la réalité » – https://theconversation.com/municipales-le-triomphe-autoproclame-du-rn-et-de-lfi-ne-correspond-pas-a-la-realite-278452