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May 7, 2026

Yémen–Somalie : l’inquiétante coopération entre ennemis idéologiques menace le commerce mondial

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Brendon Novel, Candidat au doctorat en science politique, Université de Montréal

Dans une région stratégique pour le commerce mondial, des ennemis idéologiques pourraient aujourd’hui coopérer. Les insurgés houthistes du Yémen et le groupe somalien Al-Chabab, branche d’Al-Qaida la plus puissante au monde, échangeraient des ressources logistiques et militaires selon plusieurs rapports de l’ONU et du renseignement étatsunien, sans qu’il soit toutefois question d’une alliance formelle.

Ces échanges concernent notamment des technologies militaires, dont des drones, qui pourraient accroître la capacité d’Al-Chabab à opérer bien au-delà du territoire somalien, dans une zone déjà marquée par de fortes tensions sécuritaires.

Le mouvement Ansar Allah (dont les partisans sont les « Houthistes ») contrôle une partie du nord du Yémen et dispose de capacités militaires lui permettant de perturber la navigation en mer Rouge. Al-Chabab, de son côté, contrôle de larges portions du territoire somalien et mène une insurrection armée contre le gouvernement central.

Dans le cadre de mes recherches doctorales en science politique à l’Université de Montréal, j’ai été amené à m’intéresser aux questions de sécurité dans la Corne de l’Afrique, et plus largement dans le bassin de la mer Rouge, qui constitue l’une des principales routes du commerce mondial entre l’Asie et l’Europe via le canal de Suez.

Des liens opportunistes

Les premières mentions d’une coopération entre les deux groupes remontent à 2024. Le panel d’experts sur le Yémen de l’ONU est le premier à avoir alerté sur un trafic d’armes en expansion entre les côtes somaliennes et yéménites, toutes deux en proie à des conflits depuis 1991 et 2014 respectivement. Ce même panel s’est aussi inquiété d’une coopération croissante entre les deux organisations, tant sur le plan opérationnel que logistique.

Des cadres houthistes se seraient effectivement rendus en Somalie pour y établir des liens directs. Il est également probable que des connexions aient été établies par des individus extérieurs aux deux groupes, mais intégrés à des réseaux criminels qui leur sont liés. Des flux de contrebande de tout type — y compris d’armes — prospèrent en effet depuis longtemps le long des côtes de la Corne de l’Afrique et du Yémen.

À première vue, il peut paraître contre-intuitif que ces deux organisations coopèrent. Les Houthistes sont d’obédience chiite zaydite, alors qu’Al-Chabab s’inscrit dans un courant rigoriste de l’islam sunnite particulièrement anti-chiite.

L’existence d’intérêts matériels circonstanciels entre deux forces idéologiquement opposées n’a toutefois rien d’inédit. Le mouvement houthiste cherche à gagner en influence régionale et à diversifier ses sources de revenus, tandis qu’Al-Chabab vise à enrichir son arsenal militaire.

Al-Chabab en quête de drones

Toujours selon l’ONU, des militants d’Al-Chabab auraient été formés au Yémen aux technologies de drone et à la fabrication d’engins explosifs sophistiqués. Par-là, Al-Chabab cherche à rendre ses assauts plus efficaces et meurtriers contre les forces gouvernementales somaliennes et leurs soutiens internationaux.

Ce faisant, les Houthistes auraient déjà fourni des drones armés aux militants somaliens qui leur ont également demandé des missiles guidés. Très utilisés au cours des attaques houthistes contre des navires en mer Rouge et dans le golfe d’Aden entre 2023 et 2025, ces équipements conféreraient à Al-Chabab une capacité de nuisance encore plus importante, en Somalie et au-delà.

Jusqu’à présent, l’organisation se sert de drones essentiellement pour des activités de surveillance et de renseignement. L’acquisition de drones offensifs donnerait à ses militants un levier de plus face à une armée somalienne déjà en grande difficulté.

Une expansion territoriale quasi continue

Depuis son émergence au milieu des années 2000, Al-Chabab s’est imposé comme la branche d’Al-Qaida la plus puissante au monde. L’organisation contrôle aujourd’hui de larges portions du territoire somalien, au centre et au sud du pays. Sa force repose d’abord sur les défaillances militaires, politiques et économiques du gouvernement somalien et de ses soutiens étrangers.

Al-Chabab prospère en effet sur l’échec du processus de reconstruction de l’État somalien selon un modèle fédéral. L’organisation exploite en particulier les rivalités — parfois violentes — entre l’armée fédérale et les forces régionales en quête d’autonomie. Ses militants profitent de ces dissensions, toujours plus importantes, alors que le pouvoir central à Mogadiscio, la capitale, s’efforce de centraliser le pouvoir et les ressources économiques du pays.

Comme l’armée somalienne, les forces internationales engagées à leur côté depuis le milieu des années 2000 — notamment celles de l’Union africaine — sont mises en difficulté par Al-Chabab.

Les États-Unis sont également en peine. En 2025, le nombre de frappes états-uniennes en Somalie n’a jamais été aussi important. Si elles ont permis d’affaiblir le groupe État islamique dans le nord du pays (aussi suspectées de liens avec les Houthistes), elles n’ont que peu affecté le contrôle territorial d’Al-Chabab.

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Risques d’instabilité régionale accrue

Après l’opération Hilaac (« éclair »), menée avec le soutien de Washington contre l’État islamique dans la province autonomiste du Puntland au nord, une nouvelle opération, Onkod (« tonnerre »), se prépare contre Al-Chabab dans une région côtière à l’ouest du Puntland. Les militants de l’organisation y renforcent donc leurs positions. Leurs actions — pour l’instant limitées — pourraient alors déborder sur le golfe d’Aden qui voit passer près de 30 % du trafic mondial de conteneurs.

Entre 2023 et 2025 déjà, ce passage maritime a traversé une période de forte instabilité du fait des attaques houthistes en mer Rouge en soutien au peuple palestinien. Ces opérations ont mobilisé l’attention et les ressources des forces internationales présentes dans la région, contribuant à un regain des attaques de piraterie depuis les côtes somaliennes. Si ces attaques ont diminué aujourd’hui, un retour de l’instabilité n’est pas exclu.

Une présence d’Al-Chabab plus marquée dans le nord de la Somalie pourrait y contribuer. Dans le même temps, les Houthistes pourraient eux aussi participer à l’instabilité de cet espace maritime, dans un contexte de guerre ouverte entre l’Iran, les États-Unis et Israël depuis février. L’économie mondiale, déjà exposée aux perturbations du détroit d’Ormuz, en serait alors d’autant plus fragilisée.

Brendon Novel ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Yémen–Somalie : l’inquiétante coopération entre ennemis idéologiques menace le commerce mondial – https://theconversation.com/yemen-somalie-linquietante-cooperation-entre-ennemis-ideologiques-menace-le-commerce-mondial-278176

May 7, 2026

Health authorities work to contain cruise ship hantavirus outbreak

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Daniel Pastula, Professor of Neurology, Medicine (Infectious Diseases), and Epidemiology, University of Colorado Anschutz

The cruise ship MV Hondius sits anchored off Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 5, 2026, before setting course for Spain on May 6. AFP via Getty Images

The MV Hondius, a Dutch cruise ship with a deadly outbreak of hantavirus, was on its way to the Canary Islands on May 7, 2026, after evacuating three ill passengers for treatment.

The World Health Organization confirmed the outbreak on May 4, noting a total of seven infections, with three deaths since the outbreak began in early April. An eighth case was confirmed on May 6.

Because of the illness’s one- to eight-week incubation period, additional cases may still be identified. Health officials around the world are monitoring passengers who disembarked from the ship in the early days of the outbreak in late April. Health officials emphasize, however, that the risk to the public from the outbreak is low.

I’m a medical epidemiologist – here’s what you need to know about the virus and how the outbreak is playing out.

What is hantavirus?

Hantavirus isn’t just one virus but a group of closely related viruses found throughout the world. Their natural reservoir is rodents, such as wild mice, rats and moles. Infected rodents don’t get symptoms, but the virus replicates in their cells. It sometimes spills over into other animals, including humans, and can cause severe disease and even death.

There are two general types of hantaviruses. Old World hantaviruses, typically found in Europe and Asia, generally affect the kidneys. Their mortality rate in people is 15% or less.

New World hantaviruses, such as the one causing the outbreak on the Hondius, occur in North and South America. The best-known strains of this type are the Andes virus, the strain that was confirmed in the cruise ship outbreak, and the Sin Nombre virus, which likely caused the death of Betsy Arakawa, Gene Hackman’s wife, in March 2025.

These viruses generally affect the lungs and are fatal in about 40% of cases. Symptoms start with a flu-like illness and can progress quickly to intense inflammation in the lungs that leads to lung and heart failure.

A person with a hantavirus infection may experience symptoms anywhere from a week to eight weeks after exposure. There is no treatment; doctors can offer only supportive care, such as hydration, artificial respiration or dialysis.

How do these viruses spread?

Cases of hantavirus infection are rare. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recorded 890 cases in the U.S. from 1993, when surveillance began, through the end of 2023.

The vast majority of cases occur in China, with thousands of cases caused by Old World hantavirus strains occurring annually.

Most often, people become infected with these viruses by inhaling aerosolized urine or droppings from infected rodents. Imagine a cabin infested with mice infected by the virus – sweeping the cabin would shake up dust from the mouse urine and droppings, distributing it through the air and enabling people to inhale the viral particles. There’s a smaller risk of getting ill through direct contact, such as by being bitten by an infected rodent or by touching its saliva.

Health officials are tracking people who left the ship before the outbreak was identified.

The worry on the cruise ship is human-to-human transmission. Epidemiologists had previously found hints that the Andes virus may be transmitted from one person to another under certain circumstances, such as close, sustained contact in close quarters, like a small cruise ship.

What do investigators think happened on the cruise ship?

The Hondius, now carrying close to 150 passengers, started out in Argentina on April 1 and was sailing north on a 33-day journey.

There were no reports of rodents on the ship, so it’s unlikely the illness started there. According to news reports, the people who first got sick had been touring Argentina and Chile for months beforehand. Researchers speculate they likely got infected during an activity in which they were exposed to a rodent carrying the disease or its excrement.

Given these viruses’ weekslong incubation period, these people may have been feeling fine when they boarded the ship, before eventually falling ill. They may have then spread Andes virus to others through breathing shared air or other close contact in close quarters.

What happens now?

The ship is now traveling to Spain, and multiple patients are being evacuated along the way.

Also, researchers are tracking 29 people who disembarked from the ship on April 24, before the outbreak was identified. People who had significant exposure will likely be quarantined to watch for symptoms and be isolated if symptoms develop.

Residents of three U.S. states are being monitored. Dutch officials announced on May 7 that a flight attendant who was not a passenger but briefly interacted with a passenger was hospitalized with possible hantavirus symptoms.

Is the situation dangerous?

Health officials can’t rule out that additional hantavirus cases may emerge in the cruise ship outbreak, but beyond the ship the risk remains low. That’s because most cases of hantavirus, including Andes virus, are acquired directly from rodents or their excrement and not from other humans.

It’s important to note, however, that even on vacation, people should pay attention to risks for infection – particularly as they may be very different from the ones they’re used to at home.

Daniel Pastula does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Health authorities work to contain cruise ship hantavirus outbreak – https://theconversation.com/health-authorities-work-to-contain-cruise-ship-hantavirus-outbreak-282343

May 7, 2026

Iran war has shown the limits of US power

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

Donald Trump in the Mar a Lago situation room overseeing the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28. White House gallery

In his 1873 book On War, the great Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz wrote that: “War is the realm of uncertainty.” He would have been at home in Washington this week where Clausewitz’s “fog of war” appears to have descended on the White House, at times obscuring reality.

On Tuesday, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, briefed reporters that the US plan was to get the Strait of Hormuz “back to the way it was: anyone can use it, no mines in the water, nobody paying tolls”.

This was, of course, the way things were before the war actually started.

But uncertainty about what this war was actually all about has been a hallmark of the past two months. When the conflict began on the last day of February, the US said it was about preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Although the US president, Donald Trump, added a layer of complexity by saying it was also about regime change.

Trump’s closest ally, the Israeli prime minister, added another later by insisting this was also about getting rid of Iran’s ballistic missiles and launchers and neutralising its proxies in the region.

Christian Emery, an expert in international relations at University College London – who specialises in US-Iranian affairs – sees this lack of coherence about what the war is for as underscoring “that this entire enterprise has been a colossal strategic failure”.

As things stand it now appears possible that an interim deal could well open the Strait of Hormuz to allow the global economy to return to something like normal. But the main reasons the US and Israel launched the war are unlikely to be resolved any time soon and the episode has proved to Tehran – and the rest of the world – that Iran can use its geography to its strategic advantage whenever it chooses.

For Bamo Nouri and Inderjeet Parmar, experts in international security at City St George’s Unversity of London – who have been regular contributors to our coverage of the conflict – the episode has been an object lesson in the limits of power. The US and Israel exercised considerable military superiority to Iran and have used it to devastating effect. But this is not how conflict works in the 21st century.

The US and Israel were chasing different outcomes so there was no strategic coherence to their war aims. And they underestimated Iran’s durability under pressure. Iran didn’t need to win, just to endure. “As the war progressed” they write, “the fantasy of decisive victory collapsed under the weight of economic, political and strategic reality”.

Interestingly, the Trump administration is now saying that Operation Epic Fury finished about a month ago. US forces are now engaged in Project Freedom, a humanitarian operation to help ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to transit the waterway.

As Andrew Gawthorpe, an expert in US foreign policy from Leiden University, notes, this change of emphasis appeared to emerge as Republicans in Congress were insisting that the administration was legally obliged under the War Powers Act to seek authorisation for the conflict.

Gawthorpe believes the war’s unpopularity is allowing Congress to claw back some of the influence it had over the way the US uses its military.

As we’ve noted before, the main theme of the past few weeks, since the US launched its blockade of Iranian ports to match Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is which side can absorb more pain and pressure. US consumers are facing increased prices at the gas pumps which has fed through to a higher inflation rate generally.

But the headline US CPI increase of 3.3% last month is dwarfed by inflation in Iran which is reported to have hit 50%. It’s worth noting that it was inflation and the general economic malaise which kicked off the huge protests that wracked Iran in January.

More pressingly, Iran’s inability to export its oil thanks to the US blockade means that sooner of later it will need to close down its oil production. As engineers and oil production experts Nima Shokri and Martin J Blunt explain, this can be done, but it’s by no means easy and risks seriously damaging the wells.

Global affair

They’ll be watching this all very closely in Beijing of course. The US president is due to visit Beijing next week to meet Xi Jinping for the first time since the two met on the sidelines of the Apec conference in South Korea last October.

So it was interesting to see that Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing this week to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. In normal times, China buys between 80% and 90% of Iran’s seaborne oil exports – and it has been very clear that it wants to see the Strait of Hormuz opened and “a complete cessation of fighting…without delay”.

But China-watcher Tom Harper of the University of East London, believes that Beijing can see advantages in the US getting bogged down in a fullscale war in the Middle East and might go as far as to offer military support to Tehran if that happens. While China has denied providing shoulder-launched Manpad missiles to Iran, Tehran is using its BeiDou satellite navigational system (a sort of Chinese GPS) to aim its missiles.

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Wang also said that China recognises Iran’s “legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy” – something it sees as a sovereignty issue. Which should all make for an interesting encounter between Trump and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping (if the trip goes ahead, that is).

The surprise player in all this has been Pakistan, writes Natasha Lindstaedt, an international affairs expert at the University of Essex. But as Lindstaedt points out, Pakistan has a long diplomatic track record with both the US and Iran. In 1981, two years after Washington and Tehran severed relations in the wake of the revolution that brought the Islamic Republic into being, Pakistan established a dedicated section of its Washington embassy to handling Iranian affairs in the US.

Washington and Islamabad have had their ups and downs, but things have grown closer with Trump in the White House – and Pakistan has tried to do all the right things to court Trump, including nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize and joining his board of peace. Lindstaedt walks us through this intriguing ménage à trois.

– ref. Iran war has shown the limits of US power – https://theconversation.com/iran-war-has-shown-the-limits-of-us-power-282421

May 7, 2026

Trois morts sur un bateau de croisière : ce qu’on sait du hantavirus andin

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Benoit Barbeau, Associate professor, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

Le bateau MV Hondius, foyer du hantavirus qui a causé la mort de trois passagers et en a infecté au moins cinq autres, a quitté le Cap-Vert mercredi et est attendu samedi à Tenerife, dans l’archipel espagnol des Canaries, d’où l’évacuation des passagers, dont des Canadiens, devrait débuter lundi.

C’est le virus des Andes qui est ici en cause, le seul du groupe des hantavirus transmissible entre humains, notamment par des gouttelettes de salive et par l’urine.

Il est peu probable que la première personne contaminée par ce hantavirus l’ait été à bord du MV Hondius ni au cours d’une escale. Le temps d’incubation pointe vers une contamination survenue avant le départ d’Ushuaïa, dans le sud de l’Argentine, au début du mois d’avril. Plusieurs des passagers de la croisière ont voyagé en Argentine et au Chili, où le virus est endémique.

Le risque présenté par ce hantavirus est « faible » pour « le reste du monde », a déclaré l’Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS), qui balaie toute similitude avec la pandémie de Covid-19.

Mais que sait-on de ce hantavirus ? Nous avons joint le professeur Benoît Barbeau du département des sciences biologiques de l’UQAM, expert en virologie, dont les recherches portent sur les rétrovirus humains et les coronavirus.

The Conversation Canada : À quoi avons-nous affaire avec l’hantavirus andin ?

Dr Benoît Barbeau : Il fait partie d’un groupe de virus regroupé sous le genre orthohantavirus. Le type andin peut occasionnellement être transmis à l’humain par des rongeurs (par les particules d’excréments ou d’urines) et provoquer des syndromes pulmonaires et hémorragiques, potentiellement mortels.

Ce qu’on comprend, mais on n’en a pas la certitude pour l’instant, c’est qu’une personne aurait visité des endroits, en Argentine, où il y avait présence de souris sylvestres infectées. Après avoir été en contact avec des particules d’excréments ou d’urine, sans le savoir, elle aurait pu inhaler celles-ci ou tout autre type de matière similaire. C’est le scénario le plus probable. Cette personne serait arrivée sur le bateau en étant déjà infectée. La contamination d’autres passagers s’est poursuivie à partir de là.

Il faut savoir que l’hantavirus andin n’a pas une efficacité de transmission très forte entre humains. Ça se fait par les urines, la salive, les contacts répétés… Par exemple, sur un bateau, dans une même cabine, avec des contacts fréquents. Le virus n’est pas transmissible en aérosol, comme la grippe ou la Covid. C’est quand même rassurant.

TCC : Il n’est pas si aisément transmissible, mais beaucoup plus mortel…

B.B. : En effet. Ce virus provoque deux types de maladies : une fièvre hémorragique, qui fait penser à Ebola, et qui a un taux de mortalité important (NDLR Jusqu’à 40 %), ou un syndrome pulmonaire, tout aussi létal. À l’heure actuelle, on n’a pas de traitements antiviraux. On ne peut que soulager les symptômes.

TCC : C’est un virus moins efficace dans sa transmission, mais son incubation peut être longue…

B.B : En effet, l’incubation peut aller jusqu’à huit semaines, contre deux à trois jours pour la Covid. Ça complexifie évidemment la chaîne de transmission. Cela dit, la personne ne sera pas contagieuse pendant ces huit semaines, mais fort probablement davantage quand les symptômes vont apparaître.

TCC : Pourquoi l’Amérique du Sud est-elle plus touchée par cette forme d’hantavirus ?

B.B. : On ne sait pas trop. De manière générale, en fait, on en sait peu sur ce virus, qui a été identifié à la fin des années 70 seulement. C’est donc un virus relativement récent pour nous, même si on sait que dans l’histoire, certaines éclosions y seraient liées. Il est présent dans plusieurs endroits (dont au Canada), mais demeure très peu prévalent. Depuis 1989, on en a recensé une centaine de cas chez l’humain au Canada. Parmi eux, une vingtaine sont décédés. Cela dit, peut-être que d’autres personnes ont été infectées et non recensées.

Ce qu’on sait, c’est que la souris sylvestre est la principale souche d’infection. Elle peut être porteuse du virus, mais plus tolérante à l’infection, donc elle n’est pas malade, et les risques de contagion sont plus grands. Elle devient un réservoir. Un peu comme la chauve-souris pour plusieurs virus, comme Ebola, les coronavirus, et le virus de la rage.

TCC : Est-ce que la présente éclosion, très médiatisée, poussera à développer davantage la recherche ?

B.B. : Possiblement… On espère un éveil du côté des gouvernements. On aurait intérêt à mieux investiguer. Mais on finance davantage la recherche sur les virus qui ont le plus d’impact sur un pays et sur sa population. Et comme la majorité des hantavirus n’est pas transmissible d’humain à humain, il n’y a pas tant d’intérêt pour les gouvernements d’investir dans la recherche.

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Mettre de l’énergie et de l’argent pour développer un vaccin ne serait pas très rentable non plus, car un vaccin efficace pour le type andin, par exemple, serait fort possiblement inefficace pour les autres hantavirus, et il y en a beaucoup. Ça ajoute à la complexité. Il vaut mieux investir dans les traitements, c’est plus efficace. On pourrait commencer par réutiliser ou tester d’autres antiviraux connus.

TCC : À quoi s’attendre pour la suite ?

B.B. : Tout dépend de ce qui va découler des analyses épidémiologiques… Il y a des passagers qui ont quitté le bateau de croisière avant qu’on sache qu’il y avait une éclosion. Il faut les retracer, eux et les gens avec qui ils ont été en contact. Le transfert des passagers toujours à bord du bateau doit se faire dans les prochains jours, à partir des îles Canaries. Les gens seront rapatriés dans leur pays respectif. Ils seront isolés et confinés avec des mesures qui seront certainement strictes, il n’y a donc pas de risque de transmission dans la population.

Je crois qu’on peut être confiant. Mais il faut rester très vigilant.

Benoit Barbeau ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Trois morts sur un bateau de croisière : ce qu’on sait du hantavirus andin – https://theconversation.com/trois-morts-sur-un-bateau-de-croisiere-ce-quon-sait-du-hantavirus-andin-282320

May 7, 2026

South Africans are far less tolerant of migrants than before – hotspots, drivers and solutions

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Steven Gordon, Chief Research Specialist., Human Sciences Research Council

Anti-immigrant marches in several major South African cities (such as Tshwane and Johannesburg) in early May 2026 once again led to questions being asked about xenophobia in post-apartheid South Africa.

In the wake of the protests President Cyril Ramaphosa called on South Africans to embrace solidarity with their African neighbours. For their part, foreign governments lodged their protests while police sought to curtail violence.

The tension in the country was palpable.

Are the recent outbreaks of anti-immigrant activism a harbinger of a wider uptick in anti-migrant sentiment amongst South Africans? Recent public opinion data from the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) suggests that this might be the case.

The HSRC’s South African Social Attitudes Survey is an important source of information on what ordinary South Africans think about international migration. The survey series consists of nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional surveys that have been conducted annually by the HSRC since 2003.

The latest data, from the 2025 survey, show that South Africans are more hostile towards immigrants than at any other time before since the survey began in 2003. An important dimension of the change has been an attitudinal shift and hardening of attitudes towards migrants among poorer and working-class adults. In addition, the recent growth of anti-immigrant sentiment has been geographically concentrated in four provinces: Mpumalanga, Gauteng, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal.

The rise in anti-immigrant sentiment is particularly concerning given that the country is due to hold local government elections on 4 November 2026. Aspirant political parties, in an attempt to maintain or gain power, may seek to exploit anti-immigrant sentiment for their own ends. In this way elections can provide a potential accelerant for xenophobia.

Growing hostility may even provoke xenophobic violence in a country that has a long history of collective anti-immigrant hate crime. and is home to more than two million international migrants.

Declining Hospitality

South African Social Attitudes Survey has included the following in its questionnaire since 2003:

Please indicate which of the following statements applies to you? I generally welcome to South Africa… (i) All immigrants; (ii) Some immigrants; (iii) No immigrants; and (iv) Uncertain.

In 2003 about a third (34%) of the South African adult population said that they would welcome all immigrants. The remainder indicated that they would accept either none (32%) or some (35%).

The proportion of the public that would be prepared to welcome foreigners tended to fluctuate within a narrow band over the 2003-2017 period.

But around the time of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the research data began to show an upswing in anti-immigrant sentiment.

About a quarter (26%) of those surveyed said that they would welcome all immigrants during the 2021 survey round. This was similar to figures in the mid-2010s.

But the share that held this hospitable attitude fell in subsequent survey rounds. In 2025 15% of adults said that they would welcome all foreigners.

Conversely, the proportion of the public adopting a hostile position (in other words ‘welcome no immigrants’) increased from 30% in 2021 to 42% in 2025.

Geography and class

The provinces with the highest growth in anti-immigrant sentiment – Mpumalanga, Gauteng, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal – are ones through which most immigrants travel and often settle.

The situation has become particularly delicate in KwaZulu-Natal. The share of adults in the province who said that they would welcome no immigrants grew from 23% in 2021 to 45% in 2023 and then again to 60% in 2025.

The upsurge in hostility in KwaZulu-Natal could be linked to growing popular anger against the current economic and political status quo. A staggering 88% of provincial residents are unhappy with present economic conditions, and an equal proportion expect conditions to worsen over the next five years.

The notable attitudinal shift among poor people is also concerning.

South Africa is a highly unequal nation characterised by stark economic divisions. Most citizens can be found on the wrong side of these divides and could be classified as economically disadvantaged.

Historically, as research has shown, anti-immigrant sentiment in the country tended to cut across class divisions. But in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, something changed.

Before the pandemic, South African Social Attitudes Survey data showed a linear relationship between economic disadvantage and anti-immigrant sentiment. In the years following the pandemic, however, a clear pattern emerged. As the lockdowns ended and the post-pandemic recovery began, most socioeconomic groups in South Africa became more and more hostile towards immigrants. But antipathy grew at a much more aggressive rate for the low and lower middle socioeconomic groups.

During the 2025 survey round, adults in these groups were much more hostile towards foreigners than those in the upper middle and high socio-economic groups.

The drivers

What could have caused the economically disadvantaged to become more antagonistic towards immigrants over the last five years or so?

It could be argued that the poor have become more likely to scapegoat foreigners for the failures and inequalities of the post-pandemic economic recovery. Poor people have been badly affected by a cost of living crisis and persistent deindustrialisation. They need someone to blame and foreigners have long provided a handy scapegoat.

The South African economy has struggled in the last few years, dealing with doggedly high unemployment. The country also has notoriously high crime rates. Such problems, as experts have argued again and again, cannot be directly laid at the feet of immigrants living in the country. But it would appear that they are getting blamed anyway.

What should be done?

The South African government has a National Action Plan to Combat Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance.

Implemented in March 2019, one of its goals was to reduce public hostility towards migrants. Clearly, whether because of a lack of resources or government coordination, the plan has not succeeded.

The country needs to reinvigorate it and its associated processes. What’s needed is political, civic and community leaders to address legitimate socio-economic grievances without allowing immigrants to become scapegoats for deeper structural failures in society.

Efforts to strengthen social cohesion, improve economic inclusion, enhance public trust in governance and promote responsible political leadership are also crucial.

Well-provisioned and effective anti-xenophobia strategies are urgently required to address the worsening situation. The alternative is to allow hatred to flourish.

Steven Gordon has received funding from South Africa’s National Research Foundation. He is affiliated with the University of Johannesburg.

– ref. South Africans are far less tolerant of migrants than before – hotspots, drivers and solutions – https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-far-less-tolerant-of-migrants-than-before-hotspots-drivers-and-solutions-282389

May 7, 2026

For preschoolers, fear of new foods is common — and responding can feel anything but simple

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jessie-Lee McIsaac, Associate Professor, Canada Research Chair in Early Childhood: Diversity and Transitions, Mount Saint Vincent University

Feeding children can be challenging. It is sometimes hard to know if you’re getting it right.

We want the best for our children, and we often think that means making sure they eat the right amounts of the right foods. Research tells us that we also need to think about how we’re supporting children to eat, and the messages they receive about food.

With more children attending child care for the vast majority of their day, early learning settings are critically important for promoting children’s optimal growth and development during foundational years.

Opportunities for nourishment in these settings are especially important as more than one in four children experience food insecurity at home.

What does responsive feeding mean?

Children are born with the ability to recognize their own hunger and fullness.

Over time, this capacity may shift as cultural and social beliefs around feeding young children — and financial stress or food insecurity — can result in caregivers overriding children’s internal cues by controlling their food intake. This can involve pressuring them to eat, restricting food or using food to reward behaviour.

It takes time for young children to learn about different foods and textures. Some children are adventurous eaters who may be excited to try new foods and accept them more quickly. Other children may be naturally more cautious eaters and need support or extra time.

A responsive feeding environment allows children to communicate their feelings of hunger and fullness, and in this way encourages children to regulate their own eating.

When caregivers respect a child’s autonomy, children can build comfort with a wide variety of foods and textures. This allows children to practise self-regulation by responding to feelings of hunger and fullness, and develop a lifelong healthy relationship with food.

Responsive feeding in child care

We established the CELEBRATE Feeding project, which stands for Coaching in Early Learning Environments to Build a Responsive Approach to Eating and Feeding.

Our project has worked with child-care programs in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. It supports early childhood educators to build their confidence and skills in responsive feeding — while fostering the joy of eating through an environment that celebrates diversity and inclusion.

We developed the CELEBRATE Feeding Approach as a flexible framework to support key educator behaviours in priority areas of change. These areas include mealtime routines and how educators talk about food throughout the day.

Educators discovered their powerful impact through role modelling when they sit and eat the same foods as children.

When we support children in having control of what and how much goes on their plate, they build autonomy with their decisions about the food as well as physical and fine-motor skills.

Reducing pressure

Through CELEBRATE Feeding, educators reshaped their language to reduce pressure on children to eat more or less, or to eat certain foods.

This meant moving away from coercing, praising or rewarding children based on what they were eating. Children may take a bite when pressured to eat, but in the long-term this pressure can backfire and make them less willing to accept the food.

We encouraged educators to focus on more neutral language by avoiding labelling foods as good or bad, and not pressuring children to eat more or less of certain foods.

Table talk

Educators also engaged children in conversations at the table that were not just about food. Focusing on connection and fun at the table, rather than worrying about what children are eating, can especially help children who may be stressed at mealtime because of household food insecurity or because they have been labelled as difficult or picky eaters.

We want to create a safe, positive environment for children to enjoy a variety of foods and avoid attaching feelings of guilt and shame to food.

Encouraging food exploration

Educators were coached to provide repeated opportunities for children to explore foods, without the expectation to eat or taste. This was achieved through meals and play, gardening, cooking, sensory activities and food-related books, songs and materials.

Children explored food through sight, smell, touch and taste in positive and joyful ways to support their curiosity and confidence as competent eaters.

Basil Bunny video, created in partnership with Celebrate Feeding at the University of Prince Edward Island and ‪@Tunesandtalltales‬.

Shifting perspectives around eating

Changing our approach around food can be hard. As adults, our own personal values and beliefs around food have been shaped throughout our lives. Our cultural and social beliefs around food, financial stress or food insecurity influence what we say and do when we’re with children.

Engaging families in this process and keeping equity and inclusion at the forefront can help create food environments that support everyone.

One director of a child-care program told us that in every facet of a child’s life, educators viewed children as capable and confident except when it came to food. Participating in the CELEBRATE Feeding project was a game-changer for shifting perspectives for her and her team.

A perspective shift means that we need to trust that while adults’ concern for children’s nutrition is genuine and well-meaning, children are capable of practising self-regulation by responding to feelings of hunger and fullness.

Prioritizing curiosity and joyfulness

Educators have been overwhelmingly receptive to rethinking their approach to feeding children by prioritizing curiosity and joyfulness rather than coercion and obligation.

We are continuing to share these messages through professional development and resources on our website.

While it sometimes feels hard to get it right when feeding children, we encourage caregivers to take a breath and aim for connection at the table.

Creating trust, confidence and enjoyable food memories are perhaps more important for long-term health than one resentful bite of broccoli.

Jessie-Lee McIsaac has received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the CELEBRATE Feeding project and other research. She has also received project funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, Public Health Agency of Canada, Margaret and Wallace McCain Family Foundation, and the Nova Scotia Department of Education and Early Childhood Development. Her research program is undertaken, in part, thanks to funding from the Canada Research Chairs program. McIsaac is a board member of a non-profit child care centre in Nova Scotia.

Our Celebrate Feeding intervention used the Nourishing Beginnings program from the Dairy Farmers of Canada as one training opportunity for educators. While Dairy Farmers of Canada is an industry group, Nourishing Beginnings was designed to align with evidence-based responsive feeding and child nutrition guidelines. The workshop offered to educators during our intervention was delivered by our Coaches (Registered Dietitians) with support from Dairy Farmers of Canada Dietitians. No team members received personal financial benefit from Dairy Farmers of Canada related to their work with CELEBRATE Feeding.

Julie E. Campbell receives research funding from the Government of Nova Scotia

Melissa (Misty) Rossiter received project funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and has been supported by a Jeanne and J.-Louis Lévesque Research Professorship in Nutrisciences and Health.

– ref. For preschoolers, fear of new foods is common — and responding can feel anything but simple – https://theconversation.com/for-preschoolers-fear-of-new-foods-is-common-and-responding-can-feel-anything-but-simple-280899

May 7, 2026

What the jet fuel crisis means for your summer flights and travel plans

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By John Gradek, Faculty Lecturer and Academic Program Co-ordinator, Supply Network and Aviation Management, McGill University

For many residents in the Northern Hemisphere, the advent of the summer season has always signalled travel. Travel with family, travel with friends, adventure travel, sightseeing travel, travel by automobile, travel by train, travel by air.

Air travel for Canadians this summer is looking to be one of the most turbulent seasons in decades, squeezed by a U.S. travel boycott that began in early 2025 and a global aviation fuel crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

What might air travel this summer look like, and what should passengers expect when making travel plans?

Canadians are still boycotting the U.S.

Since early 2025, Canadians have shunned travel to the United States in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and repeated remarks about Canada becoming the “51st state.”
Canadian return trips from the U.S. are down 32 per cent compared to March 2024, according to Statistics Canada. Canadians instead preferred domestic or other international travel locations.

The air travel industry has taken notice. Canadian airlines cut capacity to the U.S. by 10 per cent in the first quarter, according to aviation data firm OAG. Air Transat even plans to end all its U.S. flights by June.

Air Canada expanded flights to and from Mexico and has introduced new air routes. WestJet has also announced new domestic routes for the summer, along with adding additional flights between Eastern and Western Canada.

To characterize these plans as aggressive would be an understatement.

The ongoing fuel crisis

On Feb. 27, the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran began. Iran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil normally moves — has sent aviation fuel prices soaring, affecting supplies destined for Asia and Europe.

Since the war began, jet fuel prices have risen nearly 70 per cent, according to the Platts Global Jet Fuel Index. Air carriers have been forced to adjust their capacity plans and increase airfares.

Several global regions are facing imminent shortages of aviation fuel. Several Asian and Western European countries have begun to ration fuel products such as gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel as local reserves dwindle.

Some carriers have begun to implement capacity reductions in response to rationing measures, impacting both aircraft and staff levels.

Spirit’s collapse as a warning

Financial turmoil has now become the the subject of heated conversation in airline boardrooms, with any number of initiatives being considered to conserve liquidity in an environment that threatens the survival of many carriers.

The clearest illustration of that pressure came May 2 when Spirit Airlines shut down. Spirit ranked eighth among U.S. airlines by seats offered in 2025. Its closure has left roughly 17,000 employees without jobs and stranded tens of thousands of passengers who held tickets for future travel.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the airline “was in dire straits long before the war with Iran,” but the fuel price spike removed any remaining margin for survival. Spirit Airlines CEO Dave Davis told The Wall Street Journal the airline’s recovery plan would have succeeded if not for the Iran war and soaring fuel prices.

Spirit’s exit will remove one of the few remaining ultra-low-cost options for American travellers, and could push fares higher across the industry.

Its closure has brought the aviation fuel cost crisis into immediate focus with both regulators and the travelling public. Are other U.S. carriers at risk of the same fate as Spirit? Are other airlines globally at risk as well?

What this means for summer 2026 travel

For Canadians planning summer travel, the picture divides roughly along domestic and international lines.

Airlines have increased fares to recover fuel cost increases, cut services on routes that have become unprofitable and begun redrawing growth schedules to reflect geopolitical uncertainties.

For travellers contemplating international travel this summer, airfares have increased substantially. Domestic Canadian fares are also higher than 2025 levels, though the increase is more modest.

Demand on domestic routes has remained strong, and carriers have given no indication of softening. Competition among carriers — a key driver of lower airfares — has been muted at best, with airlines focused on profitability and, in some cases, survival.

Like all such crises, this aviation fuel crisis will eventually end. The question of when is the subject of debate and consternation. The International Air Transport Association has noted that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, recovering normal jet fuel supply could take months.

For travellers still finalizing summer plans, the central question is how much risk they can tolerate. Further capacity cuts are possible if not likely, and passengers will get minimal notice if flights are cancelled.

Those who want a straightforward, low-stress trip would do well to look closer to home and stick to domestic flights. Those with more flexibility and appetite for uncertainty will find that international travel this summer will be one for the record books.

John Gradek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What the jet fuel crisis means for your summer flights and travel plans – https://theconversation.com/what-the-jet-fuel-crisis-means-for-your-summer-flights-and-travel-plans-281093

May 7, 2026

We developed a biodegradable wash that can remove pesticides and keep fruit fresh longer

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Tianxi Yang, Assistant Professor, Food Science, University of British Columbia

Such washes can help remove pesticides and keep produce fresh, appealing and more likely to be eaten. (Unsplash/Melissa Askew)

Many grocery shoppers know the routine: bring fruit and vegetables home, rinse them, dry them and hope they stay fresh long enough to be eaten. But fresh produce is delicate. Grapes shrivel, apple slices brown and berries can spoil quickly.

At the same time, many people worry about what may remain on the surface of fruit they buy, including pesticide residues.

Cleaning and freshness are usually treated as separate problems that require different treatments. Washing feels like a simple act of control. But it’s not quite that simple.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recommends rinsing produce under running water and says soap, detergent and commercial produce washes are not recommended. Water helps, but it does not solve every problem.

Our new study suggests those goals may be combined. We developed a dual-function biodegradable wash that is able to remove surface pesticide residues and form a thin protective layer to help fruit stay fresh for longer.

The timing matters. Around one quarter of fruits and vegetables are lost or wasted globally each year. For fresh produce, even small gains after harvest can matter because quality can change quickly during shipping, storage and daily use at home.

What’s inside and how does it works?

Food science professor Tianxi Yang explains how the biodegradabe wash works. (UBC)

The wash developed in the study is made from starch nanoparticles, tannic acid and iron. Starch is a plant-based material often used in food science because it can form films. Tannic acid is a plant compound found in many foods and plants. Iron helps connect tannic acid into a fine network on the surface of the starch particles.

In plain terms, starch provides the base, tannic acid adds useful plant chemistry and iron helps hold the structure together. During rinsing, this structure can interact with some pesticide molecules on the fruit’s surface and helps wash them away.

When immersed, the same wash can form a very thin coating layer. This is not meant to be a heavy wax-like layer. It is closer to a light surface film that can slow water loss and help maintain appearance. That matters because people often decide whether to eat or throw away fruit based on how it looks and feels.

Removing surface pesticide residues

The cleaning results were strong. On apple surfaces, the wash removed more than 85 per cent of thiabendazole, compared with 48 per cent for tap water, 65 per cent for baking soda and 61 per cent for native starch.

Thiabendazole is a fungicide used on some fresh produce post-harvest. We also tested two other pesticides. The wash removed 93 per cent of the acetamiprid residues and 89 per cent of imidacloprid from apple surfaces. These results suggest the wash can work across more than one type of pesticide residue, rather than only one special chosen compound.

There is, however, an important limit. The study focused on residues on the fruit surface. Some pesticides can move into plant tissue while the fruit is growing, which makes them much harder to remove after harvest.

A better wash should not be understood as a way to erase all pesticide exposure. It’s a tool for reducing what’s on the surface of a fruit or vegetable.

Keeping produce fresh longer

a grape and apple slice at different stages of decay — Grapes and apples dipped in the UBC wash lost less moisture and browned more slowly compared to samples not treated with the wash.
(Tianxi Yang/UBC Media Relations)

The second part of our study looked at freshness. Over 15 days, untreated grapes lost around 45 per cent of their weight, while grapes treated with our wash system lost only 21 per cent. Fresh-cut apples also lost less weight over 48 hours, dropping from 17 per cent in untreated samples to nine per cent.

Those changes can impact what people buy. Treated grapes looked fresher after storage, and apple slices stayed lighter for longer. That kind of change matters outside the lab because produce that looks dried out or browned is less likely to be eaten.

The coating also showed an ability to slow oxidation and inhibited a test bacterium in laboratory experiments. This doesn’t mean the wash has completed all the safety tests needed for consumer use. However, it does suggest the coating may do more than simply sit on the surface.

What this could mean in practice

For now, a realistic use for our wash would likely be in post-harvest processing plants, not kitchen sinks. Processing facilities can control washing time, concentration, water handling and disposal more carefully than households can. We estimated the raw-material cost is less than US$0.032 per apple. Meanwhile, we are actively working on developing a household spray formulation for consumer use.

More work is needed. The wash should be tested on more fruits and vegetables, under commercial conditions and through the regulatory steps required before real-world use.

Still, the idea is useful because it reframes the problem. A fruit wash doesn’t have to be only a rinse. It could clean more effectively and then keep working, helping produce stay fresh, appealing and more likely to be eaten.

The research discussed in this article received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC).

Ling Guo and Tzu-Cheng (Ivy) Chiu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We developed a biodegradable wash that can remove pesticides and keep fruit fresh longer – https://theconversation.com/we-developed-a-biodegradable-wash-that-can-remove-pesticides-and-keep-fruit-fresh-longer-280902

May 7, 2026

The AI scientist: now academic papers can be fully automated, what does this mean for the future of research?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sorin M.S. Krammer, Professor of Strategy and International Business, University of Southampton

Until recently, AI’s role in research felt like having a useful assistant. It could summarise a paper, clean up a dataset or draft an abstract. Researchers were still in charge of the thinking.

That changed in late 2025 when cutting-edge “frontier” AI models became capable of reasoning and planning reliably by themselves. A key feature of these models is “tool calling” – the ability to interact with external tools in order to act on the world, not just describe it.

This marks the rise of agentic AI: systems that do not just respond to instructions but can independently plan, execute and iterate. In science as in other fields, chatbots have become coworkers that can autonomously complete real work, end to end.

An example of this is Tokyo-based Sakana AI’s The AI Scientist. Unveiled in mid-2025 and now in its second iteration, the Japanese tech company bills this as “the first comprehensive system for fully automatic scientific discovery”.

The AI Scientist scans existing literature, generates hypotheses, writes and executes code, analyses results and produces a full research paper – largely without human involvement. It reasons, fails and revises, just as a junior scientist would.

The proof? An AI Scientist academic paper describing “a pipeline for automating the entire scientific process end to end” was accepted by the International Conference on Learning Representations and published in the scientific journal Nature in March 2026, following peer review.

This represents something genuinely new: an autonomous AI system passing a milder version of the Turing test by demonstrating scientific quality, if not (yet) machine intelligence.

The AI Scientist’s peer-reviewed paper explained. Video: Matthew Berman.

Other significant achievements include Singapore-based startup Analemma carrying out a live demonstration of its Fully Automated Research System (Fars) in February. It produced 166 complete machine-learning research papers in roughly 417 hours for around US$1,100 (£810). That’s one academic paper every 2.5 hours at a cost that would sustain a research assistant for a couple of weeks.

And Google Cloud AI Research recently unveiled PaperOrchestra, which takes a researcher’s raw experimental logs and rough notes and converts them into a submission-ready manuscript, with figures and verified citations. In blind evaluations by 11 AI researchers, it easily outperformed existing autonomous systems in this area.

Having spent two decades researching disruptive technological innovations, I believe a significant threshold has been crossed. While there is a way to go before AI systems match the very best human-produced work, the era of fully automated research has arrived.

Implications for academia

The arrival of autonomous research systems lands on an academic system under severe strain in many countries. Over the last decade, the number of papers submitted to academic journals has grown much faster than the pool of qualified peer reviewers, leading to suggestions that the science publication system is being “overwhelmed”.

If systems like Fars can produce thousands of papers per year, the publication infrastructure of science faces a volume it was never designed to handle. Some academic reviews have already been identified as using AI-generated content. As submission numbers continue to rise, this may alter the role of a published academic paper as a definitive signal of the quality and skills of human researchers.

An optimistic take is that AI may shift academia away from its strong reliance on quantity-based metrics, in favour of how influential or innovative publications are. This is a reform critics of the current system have long called for.

Less optimistically, as AI research scales up, an academic system designed for coherent, methodologically defensible contributions may inflate the proportion of incremental, rather than radically novel, scientific contributions. Both the quality and originality of research could suffer as a result.

Science has always needed its heretics to advance. Italian astronomer Galileo, the “father of modern science”, was forced to recant his defence of heliocentrism before the Catholic Church’s Inquisition. Hungarian physician Ignaz Semmelweis died in a psychiatric institution having failed to convince his colleagues that handwashing could save lives.

Yet historically, the ability of scientific institutions to encourage radical approaches has also been a mainstaple of how science has progressed. To sustain this, AI systems will need to be trained to maximise novelty and transformation, rather than plausibility and incremental progress.

AI’s impact on creative industries

The transformative effects of this new breeed of AI extend well beyond scientific research. A striking example is The Epstein Files. This fully AI-generated podcast reached number one the UK Apple Podcasts and Spotify charts in early 2026, drawing 700,000 downloads in its first week.

Music is further along and more conflicted. By mid-2025, the fully AI-generated band The Velvet Sundown had amassed over a million monthly Spotify listeners. In 2026, the platform was forced to introduce artist-protection features after AI tracks began displacing human music on popular playlists, while Deezer, facing roughly 50,000 AI-generated uploads daily, began excluding them from curated lists.

Ownership remains the elephant in the room. US courts have ruled that AI-generated works cannot be copyrighted, since human authorship remains a legal requirement. AI can produce at industrial scale, but no one can own the output legally.

This matters far beyond intellectual property law. In creative industries, it threatens the royalty streams, licensing deals and catalogue valuations on which artists, labels and publishers have built their entire business models for generations.

In science, meanwhile, it is destabilising the entire incentive architecture, which rests on the foundational assumption that knowledge is both generated and owned by humans. When that assumption dissolves, so does much of the institutional logic that has governed how we produce, reward and trust expertise.

The question, across all these fields, is no longer whether AI can produce the work. Rather, it is whether sufficient thought has gone into what we will gain and lose when it does.

Sorin M.S. Krammer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The AI scientist: now academic papers can be fully automated, what does this mean for the future of research? – https://theconversation.com/the-ai-scientist-now-academic-papers-can-be-fully-automated-what-does-this-mean-for-the-future-of-research-282161

May 7, 2026

How Pakistan became the primary mediator between the US and Iran

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex

Pakistan has emerged as a central diplomatic broker in the conflict between the US and Iran. When announcing a pause to the US operation to guide stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz on May 6, Donald Trump said he had made the decision “based on the request of Pakistan”.

The Pakistani prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, subsequently expressed hope “that the current momentum will lead to a lasting agreement that secures durable peace and stability for the region and beyond”. This latest intervention comes a month after Pakistan secured its biggest diplomatic win in years by brokering a ceasefire in Iran.

But how did Pakistan emerge as the most trustworthy mediator in this conflict, and what drove Islamabad to involve itself? Pakistan’s biggest advantage is that it enjoys relationships with both the US and Iran, which has helped it be seen as a neutral party by each side.

Pakistan has worked with the US in dealing with Iran for decades. Since 1981, two years after the US and Iran severed diplomatic ties following the Islamic revolution, a dedicated section of the Pakistani embassy in Washington has handled Iranian diplomatic affairs in the US.

Pakistan has also worked with the US in mediation efforts elsewhere. Most notably, it facilitated former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to China in 1971. This paved the way for the normalisation of relations between the US and China later that decade.

Relations between the US and Pakistan have not always been smooth. In 2011, a decade after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Atlantic magazine in the US referred to Pakistan as the “ally from hell”. Whether or not it did so knowingly, Pakistan hosted al-Qaeda mastermind Osama bin Laden following the attack.

Trump himself also denied Pakistan military aid during his first term as president, saying it was not doing enough to combat terrorism. And Pakistan’s human rights record, particularly concerning democratic backsliding and restrictions on civil liberties, have at times led to tension with the US government.

However, Pakistan’s relationship with the US has improved markedly in Trump’s second term. Trump, who often uses personal ties to guide US foreign policy, has developed a strong relationship with Sharif and the chief of Pakistan’s army, Asim Munir. In June 2025, Munir was even invited to the White House for a private lunch. This was the first time a US president had hosted a non-head of state military leader at this level.

Pakistan’s recent efforts to court Trump have played a key role in building these ties. Over the past year Pakistan has nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, joined his Board of Peace and launched a collaboration with his World Liberty Financial crypto platform.

And in July, Islamabad signed a deal with the US to allow Washington to help develop Pakistan’s largely untapped oil reserves. “We read him [Trump] right,” said the former chairman of the Pakistani Senate’s Defense Committee, Mushahid Hussain Syed, in an interview with the Washington Post on April 20.

A map of the Balochistan region of Iran and Pakistan. — Pakistan shares a nearly 1,000km border with its sout-westerly neighbour Iran.
Peter Hermes Furian / Shutterstock

The relationship between Pakistan and Iran has also been characterised by ups and downs. While Iran was the first country to recognise Pakistan’s independence in 1947, their relationship has often been fraught with tension. This largely stems from Iran’s territorial claim to the Balochistan province of Pakistan, as well as from Pakistan’s ties with Iranian rivals.

As recently as January 2024, tensions between the two countries appeared to be escalating again over Balochistan. However, hostilities soon receded and both countries formally resumed their bilateral ties. They subsequently expanded their security cooperation and invited each other’s ambassadors and foreign ministers for a formal reconciliation ceremony.

Strategic necessity

Some commentators argue that Pakistan’s decision to step in as the primary mediator in Iran has been driven by strategic necessity. Its Balochistan province is currently grappling with an insurgency. Islamabad will thus want to avoid a situation where the Iran war spills into Pakistan, as this could destabilise its border regions even further.

There are also economic reasons explaining Pakistan’s involvement. Pakistan has been severely affected by the disruption to Gulf shipping. It imports between 85% and 90% of its crude oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and almost 99% of its liquified gas from the UAE and Qatar.

Before the war broke out, Pakistan’s economy had been starting to gain momentum. But higher oil prices are now affecting government revenues, increasing its fuel import bill from US$300 million (£220 million) before the conflict to US$800 million now. Pakistan’s authorities have been forced to raise consumer fuel prices by more than 50%.

Pakistan’s agricultural sector, which employs around 40% of the country’s population, is also vulnerable to the conflict due to its reliance on fertiliser imported through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices of urea fertiliser have surged by 50% since the war broke out. Prolonged disruption to the agriculture sector risks plunging some of the most vulnerable people in Pakistan further into poverty.

Remittances are another area that could be affected by a protracted conflict, with as many as five million Pakistani people living in the Gulf region. Pakistan received roughly US$30 billion in remittances between 2025 and 2026, 54% of which came from the Gulf.

If the war continues to affect Gulf economies, many Pakistani workers may be forced to return home. This will cause remittance revenues to fall, depriving Pakistan of a vital source of foreign exchange, while simultaneously pushing up domestic unemployment.

Pakistan’s relationships with the US and Iran put it in a strong position to intervene in the conflict diplomatically. But its mediation has also been a calculated effort to stabilise its borders and protect its economy.

Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How Pakistan became the primary mediator between the US and Iran – https://theconversation.com/how-pakistan-became-the-primary-mediator-between-the-us-and-iran-282342