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January 29, 2026

With Iran weakened, Trump’s end goal may now be regime change. It’s an incredibly risky gamble

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern Studies, Australian National University; The University of Western Australia; Victoria University

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are once again on the brink of a major confrontation. This would have terrible ramifications for both countries, the region and the world.

All signs point in this direction, but the two sides also have an off-ramp: the possibility of reaching an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and other disputed issues.

The Iranian regime has never been so besieged both internally and externally. It has just faced yet another widespread protest movement demanding the government’s ouster, while dealing with the threat of military action by the US, supported by its ally, Israel.

Even so, the regime remains resilient and defiant. It brutally crushed the recent protests at the cost of thousands of lives and mass arrests and has warned the US of an all-out war if it attacks.

At the same time, it has signalled a willingness to reach a deal with the US over its nuclear program to avoid such an outcome.

So, what happens next, and can war be avoided?

A regime in survival mode

The regime’s tenacity is embedded in its unique theocratic nature, in which societal subordination and confrontation with outside enemies are the modus operandi.

Since its inception 47 years ago, the regime has learned how to ensure its longevity. This requires having a strong and defendable state, armed with all the necessary repressive instruments of state power, along with an ideology that mixes the concept of Shia Islamic martyrdom with fierce Iranian nationalism.

Given this, the regime has operated within a jihadi (combative) and ijtihadi (pragmatist) framework for its survival.

It has prepared for both war and making deals. This is not the first time Iran’s clerical leaders have been put in a tight corner by their own people and outside adversaries. They have always found a way to work through challenges and threats to their existence.

Still, the current challenge is bigger than any they’ve faced before. Over the past month, US President Donald Trump has vowed to punish the regime for its repression of the Iranian people, and now for its refusal to reach a deal on its nuclear program.

Some believe his ultimate goal, though, is to create the conditions for regime change.

Regime change not a given

Trump must know that regime change in Iran will not happen easily. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his fellow clerics are ready to fight to the very end. They know that if the Islamic system they created goes down, everyone in the regime is most likely to perish with it.

The regime has built sufficient fanatical forces (namely, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij paramilitary force) and advanced missiles and drones to defend itself. It also has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz, though which 20% of the world’s oil and 25% of its liquefied natural gas flows every day.

The regime also has the backing of China, Russia and North Korea, which means any US assault could quickly escalate into a broader regional war.

Although Trump has not favoured regime change in the past, he now seems as if he’s not ruling it out. (His ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long had this aim.)

But even though Trump now has a “massive armada” of ships and fighter jets in the region, the Iranian regime cannot be toppled by air and sea alone. And a ground invasion is not on Trump’s agenda, given the United States’ bitter experiences with ground offensives in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The regime could only crumble if a sizeable part of its security forces defected to the opposition. So far, they have remained quite loyal and solidly behind the leadership – as the brutal crackdown to the recent protests shows.

A possible destabilising future

Even if the regime were to crumble from within by some chance, what would come next?

Iran is a large and complex country, with an ethnically mixed population. While Persians form a slim majority of the population, the country has significant minority groups, such as the Kurds, Azeris, Arabs and Balochis. They all have a history of movements for secession and autonomy.

With the exception of two short periods of experimenting with democracy in the early and mid-20th century, Iran has been governed by authoritarian rulers. In the event of a power vacuum, it remains prone to chaos and disintegration.

It is doubtful that Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who ruled from 1941–79, will command sufficient public support and organisational strength to ensure a smooth transition to democracy. He has lived most of his life in exile in the US and has been closely identified with Israeli and American interests.

Netanyahu would be pleased to see a disintegrated Iran, as he has always wanted to prevent the formation of a united Muslim front against Israel. But the fall-out from a destabilised Iran would be problematic for the region.

These considerations are probably weighing on Trump’s mind, delaying his promise to the Iranian protesters that “help is on its way”.

Diplomacy is the better way forward. The time has come for the Iranian and American leadership to compromise and resurrect their July 2015 nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew in 2018.

This should be urgently followed by Iran’s clerical rulers opening their iron fist and allowing the Iranian people to determine their future and that of their country within a democratic framework.

Otherwise, the volatility that has long dominated this oil-rich country, where between 30–40% of the population lives in poverty, will eventually devour the regime.

Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. With Iran weakened, Trump’s end goal may now be regime change. It’s an incredibly risky gamble – https://theconversation.com/with-iran-weakened-trumps-end-goal-may-now-be-regime-change-its-an-incredibly-risky-gamble-274626

January 29, 2026

Death in Minneapolis and the battle for truth in Trump’s America

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.

The US government’s reaction to the killing of Alex Pretti last weekend – and of Renée Good a fortnight earlier – was a grim reminder of George Orwell’s dystopian masterpiece Nineteen Eighty-Four, in which: “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

In similar fashion, senior members of the Trump administration asked the American people to reject freely available video evidence of the two killings. They claimed that Pretti, a nurse at a local veterans’ hospital, was a “domestic terrorist”, that he was “brandishing a handgun”, and was “an assassin” who “tried to murder federal agents”. Good, a mother of three, supposedly “viciously ran over the ICE officer” who then put three bullets in her head.

Given that video evidence flatly contradicts those statements, this could yet prove a serious overreach on the part of Donald Trump and his lieutenants. Already border patrol commander Greg Bovino, who was in charge of ICE operations in Minneapolis, has been removed. And there’s speculation that Kristi Noem, US secretary of homeland security, is under serious pressure.

How BBC Verify analysed available video footage of Alex Pretti’s death.

One of the more objectionable claims from some of the people looking to blame the victims, writes Andrew Gawthorpe, was the claim made by several Trump officials – and the president himself – that by carrying a gun, Pretti had been asking for trouble.

As you might expect, this drew a sharp reaction from both the National Rifle Association and the Gun Owners of America. These two organisations, who are among Trump’s staunchest backers, reminded the administration of the second amendment right to bear arms, even to a protest – something which also brings in the first amendment right to free expression.

Gawthorpe, an expert in US history and politics at Leiden University, points to the dramatic irony at play here. The express intention of the second amendment was to allow American citizens to arm themselves against a tyrannical government. He concludes: “While some gun rights advocates may have been willing to keep quiet while federal agents were trampling on the rights of migrants and brown-skinned citizens, the murder of Pretti is a bridge too far.”

Meanwhile Mark Shanahan, a professor of political engagement at the University of Surrey, addresses some important points raised by Pretti’s killing. What are federal agents doing on the streets of Minneapolis in the first place, what will the episode mean for Trump’s popularity, and what can be done to prevent further violence?

When it comes to the last question, he argues that the removal of one of the key ICE personnel from the city is a start. Proper congressional scrutiny of ICE’s funding, which is set to sharply increase again this year, would also appear appropriate.

George Lewis, a professor of American history at the University of Leicester, reminds us that Americans have fought back against authoritarianism before. From the 1930s to the 1970s, the House Un-American Activities Committee (Huac) terrorised liberal Americans in its bid to root out communism and (vaguely defined) “un-American” activities such as campaigning for civil rights.

However, a concerted campaign by liberal lawmakers including Jimmy Roosevelt inside Congress, as well as legions of well-organised activists, managed to consign Huac to history’s dustbin in 1975.

Ukraine: diplomatic stalemate

We’re still waiting to hear whether Vladimir Putin plans to sign up to Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace”. But the signs aren’t all that good. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, was making some positive noises earlier this week about the prospect of securing security guarantees from Washington. This followed the latest round of talks in Abu Dhabi – at which, for the first time, representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the US came together to talk about ways to end the war.

But almost as soon as Zelensky had revealed his optimism that a deal might be possible, American sources indicated that in return for US security guarantees, Ukraine would have to accept the loss of the parts of the Donbas region it still occupies. This is a non-starter, as Ukraine considers the territory strategically vital.

As Stefan Wolff points out, we’ve been here before. Zelensky can’t accept this condition – and even if he does, Putin won’t accept US guarantees. Trump, meanwhile, will more than likely blame the Ukrainian president for the lack of a deal.

After 12 months of Trump’s second term, the unreliability of the US as an ally for Europe and the rest of Nato is becoming ever more evident. The US president’s Board of Peace appears designed to undermine the United Nations, while his negative rhetoric about US military allies, including the UK, appeared calculated to cause maximum offence (even if Trump later walked back some of his more controversial statements).

David Dunn, a specialist in the US and international security at the University of Birmingham, believes that while Trump may see the world in terms of great power competition, the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland revealed a growing determination on the part of “medium-sized powers” to face up to this new reality – and begin building a new system that does not rely on Washington to make the running.

War in Iran?

After calling on the people of Iran to keep protesting a fortnight ago, promising that “help is on its way”, the US president has ordered a “beautiful armada” into the Gulf, from where it can put pressure on Iran. In fact, the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group appears designed to get the Islamic Republic to dismantle its nuclear programme.

But the likelihood of this developing into full-scale conflict between the US and Iran is very slim, writes Bamo Nouri. He thinks it doubtful that US action can easily dislodge the regime. Despite the widespread recent protests, the Islamic Republic remains firmly embedded and has spent decades preparing for a possible war with the US.

Nouri, a journalist and international relations expert at City St George’s, University of London, believes that any conflict between the US and Iran would almost certainly destabilise the entire Middle East – and would be highly likely to spread. It’s the last thing that America’s allies in the region want, he concludes.

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– ref. Death in Minneapolis and the battle for truth in Trump’s America – https://theconversation.com/death-in-minneapolis-and-the-battle-for-truth-in-trumps-america-274675

January 29, 2026

Why drug approval in Canada should not rely on foreign regulators

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Joel Lexchin, Associate professor, Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto; York University, Canada; University of Sydney

Without much fanfare, Health Canada announced in the Canada Gazette Part 1 on Dec. 22, 2025 that it was beginning a 70-day consultation period on using the decisions of foreign drug regulators such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to approve new drugs in Canada.

If the proposal is approved, Health Canada will evaluate reports from the other regulators, and provided those reports are satisfactory and that the drugs met certain conditions (for example, the drug being considered by Health Canada has the same strength, dosage form, route of administration, medicinal ingredient and indications as the foreign drug), the new drug will be approved.

This announcement appears to be a continuation of the federal government’s Red Tape Review launched in July 2025. According to a report on this initiative, Health Canada’s rationale for this change is that “industry stakeholders have indicated that they face undue burden due to overlapping or unclear regulatory requirements, complex regulatory approvals, and onerous reporting and information demands” and have “raised concerns about the time it takes to get products to market.”

Health Canada states that “enhanced international regulatory alignment reduces burden for industry and can support increased health product submissions to Canada” and increase the number of new drugs available to Canadians.

These views reflected in the Red Tape Review align with those of the pharmaceutical industry. In its 2025 pre-budget submission to the federal government, Innovative Medicines Canada (IMC), the main pharma industry lobby group, said that “reliance on trusted foreign regulatory reviews where appropriate…will streamline drug approvals and enable Health Canada to be a global regulatory leader.”

Faster drug approvals would also mean a shorter timeline to revenue generation for drug companies.

Benefits need to be evaluated

On the surface, this sounds like a reasonable initiative; countries with strong regulatory systems can draw on each other’s strengths so that tasks are not unnecessarily duplicated. In Canada’s case, our resources and capacity are limited compared with those of other leading regulatory authorities like the FDA and the EMA.

But before Canada starts using decisions from other jurisdictions, there is a need to evaluate whether this new way of approving drugs is actually going to be beneficial.

Australia has been using such a system since 2018. One of the benefits touted by the Australian government was that new drugs would be submitted faster to the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), the equivalent of Health Canada.

But comparing the gap in the timing of submissions to the FDA and the TGA since Australia began using foreign regulator decisions doesn’t provide any convincing evidence that this has actually happened.

My new study, currently under peer review, looks at the 29 drugs that have so far used the Australian system. Twenty-two of those drugs have been evaluated by one or more organizations that look at how much additional therapeutic value new drugs provide compared to existing therapies. Sixteen of the 22 offered only minor new gains and just two were a major benefit.

FDA standards and approval pathways

The U.S. approves more new drugs than Canada does. But a recent study that compared Canada and the U.S. found that many drugs available in the U.S., but not north of the border, already had existing alternatives that are therapeutically and chemically similar. The small number of drugs that were unique to the U.S. were not very clinically important.

Some industry observers think the standards that the FDA uses to approve new drugs have been declining over the past 15-20 years.

The FDA has increased its reliance on what are called expedited drug approval pathways in recent decades. These allow drugs onto the market with lower levels of evidence. Although they were initially designed for drugs that treat rare conditions or life-threatening illnesses that don’t have effective treatments, researchers have found that these expedited pathways are being increasingly used for drugs that may not be innovative.

If Canada were already using foreign decisions, aducanumab (brand name Aduhelm) might have been put on the market in Canada as a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease. In the U.S., the FDA approved aducanumab despite a lack of evidence that it would benefit Alzheimer’s patients, and despite and the negative vote of 10 of the 11 members of the FDA’s advisory committee — the 11th member abstained — and the subsequent resignation of three of the committee members. The manufacturer eventually pulled Aduhelm from the U.S. market because almost no doctors were prescribing it.

Different regulatory cultures, different decisions

We also need to think about the consequences of the homogenization of drug approval standards. Homogenization ignores the development of different regulatory cultures in different jurisdictions that arise from networks of individuals who produce regulatory policy, determine testing standards and ultimately decide on market access for new drugs.

When presented with essentially the same evidence, the FDA and the EMA often make different decisions about oncology drugs. A 2020 study found frequent discordance between the FDA and the EMA. Another study compared the approval of 42 cancer drugs between 1995 and 2008 by the FDA and the EMA, and showed that in almost 50 per cent of cases, there was a discrepancy between EMA and FDA decisions.

So far, there is no evidence to back up the claim that using decisions made by foreign drug regulators will lead to faster access to newer and better drugs. Before Canada proceeds down this pathway, Health Canada needs to show that it will improve public health.

Between 2022-2025, Joel Lexchin received payments for writing a brief for a legal firm on the role of promotion in generating prescriptions for opioids, for being on a panel about pharmacare and for co-writing an article for a peer-reviewed medical journal on semaglutide. He is a member of the Board of the Canadian Health Coalition. He receives royalties from University of Toronto Press and James Lorimer & Co. Ltd. for books he has written. He has received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research in the past.

– ref. Why drug approval in Canada should not rely on foreign regulators – https://theconversation.com/why-drug-approval-in-canada-should-not-rely-on-foreign-regulators-273693

January 29, 2026

Filing taxes for someone else? Here’s how to do it safely

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Celine Latulipe, Professor, Computer Science, University of Manitoba

Filing taxes every year is an important and necessary task in Canada. But for many, tax preparation and filing can be overwhelming. One reason is that tax forms can sometimes be hard to interpret, especially because most people only deal with them once a year.

Another factor is the shift to digital: tax forms are often delivered electronically; tax software has become the preferred method for tax preparation and filing; and the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) prefers to send all tax information electronically through the CRA MyAccount.

With this digital system, it’s typically necessary to access tax forms and previous Notices of Assessment by logging in to your CRA MyAccount. This can be a barrier for those with less experience using computers and online accounts, such as some older adults.

Many people act as informal tax helpers by filing taxes for older parents, relatives or friends. In fact, half of Canadians filing taxes have someone else do their taxes for them. Of those, one in five reports getting help from a friend or family member acting as an informal tax helper.

This means about 10 per cent of tax filers in Canada rely on family or friends to file their taxes. The CRA has a Represent a Client program that allows informal tax helpers to log in to the CRA MyAccount of the person they are helping to access relevant tax forms. However, a study that I recently conducted with colleauges shows that this mechanism is under-utilized.

How informal tax helpers access CRA accounts

Getting help with taxes can take many forms: hiring an accountant, visiting a tax preparation company, getting help from a volunteer through the Canadian Volunteer Income Tax Program (CVITP) or delegating to an informal tax helper.

Tax accountants, tax preparers and CVITP volunteers have business IDs or Group IDs for accessing CRA MyAccounts of the clients they assist. Similarly, informal tax helpers can sign up with CRA’s Represent a Client program to get RepIDs, which are ID numbers provided by the CRA to people whose identity is verified by having their own CRA MyAccount.

As an example, having a RepID allows me to access my daughter’s CRA MyAccount to get her Notices of Assessments, download tax forms and use NetFile to file her taxes. I could ask my daughter to log in and download those items for me, but it is faster for me to do it, as I know what forms I’m looking for and where to find them.

The Canada Revenue Agency’s ‘Represent a Client’ landing page.
(Canada Revenue Agency)

Having a RepID does not give access to everyone’s tax records. A link needs to be established between the helper’s RepID and the CRA MyAccount of the person they are assisting. This can be done by uploading a signed form from the taxpayer or by sending an authorization request through the CRA system, which the taxpayer must approve.

The risks of sharing login credentials

In our study, we investigated CRA delegation mechanisms. We conducted a semi-structured interview study with 19 participants, including older adults, formal tax volunteers and informal tax helpers, to understand the challenges and experiences of tax delegation.

We found that only one informal tax helper used a RepID. Most either did everything using paper forms provided by the person they are helping, or they accessed that person’s CRA MyAccount using that individual’s credentials to log in.

In some cases, informal tax helpers may actually be setting up the CRA MyAccounts for the people they are helping, which means they know the login credentials. This violates the terms of service of the CRA MyAccount — you are not supposed to share your password with anyone.

While informal tax helpers are providing a valuable and helpful service to their friends and families, using a person’s credentials to access their CRA MyAccounts is problematic.

When an informal tax helper knows someone else’s CRA login credentials, they could log in as that user, change the mailing address and banking deposit details, and then make bogus tax and benefit claims. In this case, the CRA has no way to tell that it is someone else logging in and taking actions on behalf of the taxpayer associated with the account.

However, if an informal tax helper uses a RepID to access someone’s CRA MyAccount, the CRA knows exactly who is doing what. They don’t allow informal tax helpers to change the mailing address or bank deposit information, which goes a long way to preventing tax fraud.

Make tax help safer with a CRA RepID

If someone is helping you file your taxes, ask them to get a CRA RepID. It’s a quick process for them, and then they can access tax forms in your CRA MyAccount safely. This way, the CRA will know when it is them signing in to your account versus you, and your helper will only be able to access the appropriate functions.

The interface for requesting access, on the 'select authorization level' step. Level 1 allows a representative to view client information, while Level 2 allows a representative to view information and perform actions on behalf of a client. — The Canada Revenue Agency’s Represent a Client web page. Two levels of access are available, and neither allows the editing of critical details like bank deposit information or client address. An expiry date can also be set so that access does not have to be granted indefinitely.
(Canada Revenue Agency)

Most informal tax helpers are honest, helpful people and they shouldn’t have to impersonate you to get your taxes done. Using the CRA’s Represent a Client system provides legitimacy to informal tax helpers and safety for those getting assistance.

With the tax deadline of April 30, 2026 approaching, if you plan to have someone assist you with tax filing, it’s a good time to check with them to make sure they use a RepID to access your CRA MyAccount. Doing this early can help avoid last-minute stress, ensure your tax return is filed accurately and give you confidence that your information is secure.

Celine Latulipe receives funding from NSERC.

– ref. Filing taxes for someone else? Here’s how to do it safely – https://theconversation.com/filing-taxes-for-someone-else-heres-how-to-do-it-safely-271924

January 29, 2026

Winter changes more than the weather — it changes how we connect. Here’s how to stay socially engaged

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kiffer George Card, Assistant Professor in Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University

Throughout Earth’s history, life in temperate and polar zones has had to contend with the cold and darkness of winter. Across species, seasonal adaptation is the norm. Some animals hibernate, others migrate, and many reduce activity, conserve energy, and narrow their social and ecological range until conditions improve. These strategies evolved over millennia as reliable responses to predictable environmental stress.

Humans are no exception. Seasonal cycles have a deep impact on our psychology and well-being — after all, for most of our evolutionary and recorded history, winter has shaped how we live, work and relate to one another. For our ancestors, food was scarcer, travel more difficult and daily activity contracted due to shorter days. Social life often shifted indoors and inward, and organized around smaller groups, shared labour and mutual dependence.

While modern societies have reduced many of winter’s material hardships, the season continues to exert a powerful influence on human behaviour and well-being.

As a social ecologist interested in human wellness, my research focuses on how our natural and social environments shape our well-being and what we can do to improve our relationships with these environments to maximize our well-being.

In this work, I study the drivers of emotional responses, such as loneliness and eco-anxiety. This work has taught me how inseparably connected we are to each other and to our environments, and one of my key areas of interest is how our social and natural worlds are intertwined.

Understanding how well-being is affected by weather

One area of research that has fascinated me is how humans respond to the weather and day-night cycles of the places they live. For example, research has shown that colder temperatures, greater precipitaiton and shorter periods of sunshine are associated with outcomes such as greater tiredness, stress, loneliness, and poorer life satisfaction and self-rated health.

As such, it makes sense that we are more likely to have depressive symptoms or feel tired and lonely in the winter compared to the spring and summer. Perhaps most concerning, studies of suicide attempts, loneliness and their seasonality indicate that winter weather can contribute to each, suggesting that seasonal shifts in social connection may intensify vulnerability during these periods.

Taken together, I believe this body of work suggests that the most consequential pathway linking winter conditions to well-being may not be weather exposure itself, but its effects on social connection. After all, human beings are fundamentally social animals — we greatly rely on each other for our happiness, health and survival.

Fortunately, the effect of weather on our mood is small and people can overcome it through intentional efforts. Indeed, human beings are incredibly adaptive to their environments, meaning even in poor weather contexts we can find ways to meet our social needs.

Illustrating this, research comparing levels of social isolation across neighbourhoods during cold weather highlights differences in how some communities respond to cold weather, with those choosing more indoor time throughout the day experiencing greater social isolation.

Research also suggests that our personality traits shape how resilient we are to weather changes. Studies such as these underscore that our responses to cold weather can shape its effects on us. Environment is not destiny, if we know how to address it.

So what can we do during the cold dark winter months to stay connected, and therefore happy and healthy? The research consistently shows that staying socially engaged, even in small ways, protects mental health and promotes well-being.

Ways to get connected in the cold

While winter may reduce incidental social contact, connection can be maintained through deliberate routines and low-threshold forms of engagement, including:

• committing to a weekly or biweekly group activity, such as a book club, exercise class, faith-based group or hobby circle

• organizing small, recurring gatherings, such as rotating dinners, shared meals or weekend brunches

• scheduling regular phone or video check-ins with family or friends and treating them as fixed commitments

• integrating social contact into daily activities, such as walking, running errands, exercising or having coffee together

• using daylight strategically by planning brief outdoor meetups or spending time in naturally lit public spaces

• participating in year-round volunteer roles that provide regular contact and a sense of purpose

• enrolling in short-term courses or workshops that create repeated contact over several weeks

• connecting through shared projects, such as creative work, community caregiving or co-hosted events

• initiating contact with others who may also be withdrawing socially during winter

It’s not always easy, but it is worth it

Of course, such activities take time and energy and are not always the easiest to do. Snow-caked roads and reduced sunlight hours can pose real mobility challenges. So while we might want to connect, we are not always able to when we face such environmental barriers.

In fact, one of my favourite findings in the literature is that while people naturally feel inclined to seek out social affiliation in response to cold weather (something I believe to be a survival strategy we’ve inherited from our less technologically equipped ancestors), physical warmth acts psychologically as a satisfactory replacement — even if it lacks the long-term benefits of social connection.

In other words, the modern amenities of space heaters and cozy blankets make it easier for us to isolate — and many of us are happy to enjoy the warmth from these instead of the warmth offered by social connection.

However, knowing the central importance of social connection to well-being, it’s important to not fall trap to these creature comforts. There is not anything wrong with being alone from time to time, but winter is too long a season to spend alone safely.

Intentional effort

In short, we need to recognize that winter weather has a predictable effect on our well-being, and this effect calls for deliberate social adaptation. Human well-being has always depended on the ability to respond collectively to seasonal constraint, and the contemporary winter environment is no different, even if its risks are less visible.

The evidence reviewed above suggests that while the cold, darkness and reduced mobility can heighten vulnerability, their effects are shaped by how individuals and communities organize daily life, social routines and sources of connection. Comfort, convenience and withdrawal may offer short-term relief, but they do not substitute for the protective role of sustained social engagement.

Winter demands intention rather than retreat. By recognizing social connection as a seasonal health behaviour rather than a discretionary luxury, individuals and communities can better align modern living with enduring human needs, reducing risk and supporting well-being across the long months of cold and dark.

Kiffer George Card is president of the Mental Health and Climate Change Alliance and Social Health Canada and has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, Health Research British Columbia, Canadian Red Cross, Public Health Agency of Canada, Government of British Columbia, and Canadian Institutes of Health Research for his work related to the social and natural environmental factors shaping wellbeing.

– ref. Winter changes more than the weather — it changes how we connect. Here’s how to stay socially engaged – https://theconversation.com/winter-changes-more-than-the-weather-it-changes-how-we-connect-heres-how-to-stay-socially-engaged-273684

January 29, 2026

Small improvements in sleep, physical activity and diet are linked with a longer life

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eef Hogervorst, Professor of Biological Psychology, Loughborough University

We may not need to completely overhaul our lives to live healthier for longer, according to a large UK-based study. This is welcome news, particularly as many people will already have abandoned their New Year’s resolutions.

The recent study followed around 590,000 people in the UK, with an average age of 64, over an eight-year period. The researchers confirmed earlier findings that healthier lifestyles are associated with lower risk of disease, including dementia, and with living longer in good health and independence.

The authors reported that even very small changes were associated with such benefits. These included around five additional minutes of sleep per night, two extra minutes per day of moderate to vigorous physical activity, and modest improvements in diet. Together, these changes were associated with roughly one additional year of healthy life. “Healthy life” here refers to years lived without major illness or disability that limits daily functioning.

More substantial changes were linked to larger gains. Almost half an hour of extra sleep per night, combined with four additional minutes of exercise per day, which adds up to nearly half an hour of extra activity per week, along with further dietary improvements, was associated with up to four additional healthy years of life.

This matters because, although women live longer on average than men, those extra years are often spent in poorer health, with significant personal and economic costs. Women face a higher risk of dementia, stroke and heart disease at older ages, as well as conditions that lead to vision loss and bone fractures. These illnesses can reduce quality of life and threaten independence.

Lifestyle change may also reduce the risk of early death. The same lifestyle factors examined in this cohort were analysed last year in a separate study, which focused on mortality (the risk of dying).

In that analysis, people who followed healthier lifestyle patterns over an eight-year period had a 10% lower risk of death in that period. The combination of 15 extra minutes of sleep per night, two additional minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity per day and a healthy diet was linked to a modest reduction in the risk of dying. A much larger reduction of 64% was seen among people who slept between seven and eight hours per night, ate a healthy diet and engaged in between 42 and 103 additional minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity per week. Importantly, this benefit was only seen when these behaviours occurred together. Diet alone had no measurable effect, for instance.

Strengths and limitations

One of the key strengths of these studies is that they show health benefits at very low thresholds of behaviour change. This reduces the likelihood that the results are driven only by people who are already healthier or more motivated, and makes the findings more applicable to older adults and those with limited capacity to change their routines.

Another strength is the use of objective measurements rather than self-reported data. Physical activity and sleep were measured using wearable devices, rather than relying on participants to estimate their own behaviour. Self-reporting can be unreliable, particularly for people with memory problems, such as those in the early stages of dementia.

However, there are important limitations. The objective measurements were only collected for three to seven days, which may not reflect people’s long-term habits. From personal experience, wearing activity trackers can lead people to exercise more while they are being monitored, but these changes are often short-lived.

In addition, wrist-worn accelerometers estimate sleep and activity based on movement. During deep sleep, people move very little, but lack of movement does not always mean someone is asleep. These devices may therefore not fully capture true sleep patterns or physical activity levels. Other methods, such as thigh-mounted sensors or mattress-based sensors that detect movement during sleep, may provide more accurate assessments.

Despite these issues, objective measurements are generally more reliable than self-report. Still, because behaviour was only measured once, it is unclear whether actual changes in behaviour over time influenced health outcomes. It is also not clear whether the recorded activity reflected leisure-time exercise or physical activity at work, which can have different effects on health.

Dietary information presents another challenge. Diet was self-reported and collected three to nine years before collection of sleep and activity data. Diets often change over time, particularly after diagnoses such as cardiovascular disease, where people may be advised to reduce their cholesterol intake, or in conditions such as dementia, where people may forget to eat. As a result, it is difficult to know whether diet influenced disease risk, or whether emerging disease altered diet, eventually contributing to poor health and earlier death.

There are also broader social factors to consider. Healthy behaviours tend to cluster together and are strongly linked to education and financial security. For example, smoking and having overweight and obesity are closely associated with deprivation and poverty.

Participants in the UK Biobank, a large long-term health research project that collects genetic, lifestyle and health data from hundreds of thousands of UK adults, are generally healthier than the average UK population.

Health research often attracts people who are healthier, better educated and more financially secure. This may reflect both interest in research and having the time and resources to take part in such studies.

Wealth also shapes exposure to risk. People with higher incomes are less likely to live in areas with high levels of pollution and are more likely to have control over their working conditions and finances. Financial stress can affect sleep quality, leading to fatigue and reducing the likelihood of exercising, shopping for fresh food, or preparing healthy meals. Over a lifetime, these factors contribute to poorer health and earlier death.

Although researchers attempted to account for these influences using statistical methods, these are deeply interconnected and difficult to separate. The widening health-wealth gap, with many people now living in severe poverty, highlights the limits of personal responsibility. These structural issues require action from policymakers, rather than placing the burden solely on people who may have very little control over the conditions that shape their health.

Eef Hogervorst has received funding from several governmental and charity foundations for her research into lifestyle and health including currently the ISPF and Alzheimer’s Research UK. She is affiliated with Loughborough university and has recently acted as dementia expert for NICE and the BBC. In the past she has acted as consultant on diet and dementia risk for Proctor

– ref. Small improvements in sleep, physical activity and diet are linked with a longer life – https://theconversation.com/small-improvements-in-sleep-physical-activity-and-diet-are-linked-with-a-longer-life-273502

January 29, 2026

Why hospitality skills can help all businesses adapt to the AI revolution

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alisha Ali, Associate Professor, Department of Service Sector Management, Sheffield Hallam University

The future of work is being rewritten by artificial intelligence (AI) – but technology competence alone will not be enough to empower the workforce of the future. While AI has massive potential to improve efficiency, accuracy and productivity in the workplace, it’s less clear how it will evolve to foster the person-centred concerns that all businesses face.

The human-centred skills found in the hospitality sector (empathy, creativity, adaptability, kindness, resilience and cultural intelligence) have been shown to be strategic assets in AI deployment in the workplace – things like chatbots or virtual assistants. They also remain the hardest skills to replicate in and by AI.

These qualities are not just soft skills – they should be at the heart of all customer service businesses. They enable employees to turn routine interactions into memorable experiences through emotional connection and the anticipation of customers’ needs. For now at least, AI is ill-equipped to manage this.

These hospitality skills matter for all businesses – not just those in the sector. In a world of evolving AI, they can help organisations ensure that the human touch is not lost. And investing in these skills can also drive profitability.

The UK hospitality sector leads the Social Productivity Index, a metric that measures the broader social value of industries beyond just how much revenue they make. Hospitality is the third-largest employer in the UK and the top employer of under-25s, part-time workers and minority groups. It also contributes £93 billion to the UK economy annually, accounting for 3% of GDP.

As such, investing in hospitality skills is critical to driving economic growth and building more resilient, people-centred workplaces. These skills are essential for things like creating a welcoming environment or navigating complex and changing business demands. There is a need for all businesses to prioritise these skills alongside their use of AI.

ai chatbot conversation on a phone screen — Efficient… but impersonal.
Tero Vesalainen/Shutterstock

By 2030, industries such as banking, healthcare and retail are expected to rely heavily on agentic AI (those systems that can solve complex problems in real time) to interact with customers. These industries lean heavily on efficiency, compliance and product knowledge – which are important – but they leave little room for genuine emotional engagement.

Many businesses are using chatbots and virtual concierges to resolve customers’ problems. Hospitality skills can help to determine which customer concerns can be dealt with by AI and which need to have the human touch. Similarly, AI can manage staff and rotas, but it cannot judge uncertainty or consider the impact of decisions on staff.

Hospitality comes into its own in terms of personalisation and cultural sensitivity. These skills are not just add-ons; rather they are the glue that holds great customer experiences together. Multilingual greetings, tailoring menus to cultural norms, spotting unspoken needs and other small touches all build loyalty.

Good hospitality professionals do not just serve, they anticipate, adapt and make people feel seen. Emotional intelligence and emotional labour are embedded into hospitality roles, with staff trained to manage emotions and respond with empathy.

The ‘what’ and the ‘why’ of business

In an era where technology handles the “what”, hospitality skills can deliver the “why” – that is, the meaning behind the interaction. And when transferred to sectors that also rely heavily on these strengths, such as healthcare, hospitality skills can provide great opportunities for career change or progression.

We suggest three ways organisations can embrace hospitality skills alongside AI to future-proof their talent pool.

First, staff training should be designed to combine both AI knowledge and the deep connectivity of hospitality skills. This training should encompass how businesses expect staff to engage with AI, as well as how hospitality skills can be fused to support and enhance their customers’ experience.

While AI can process data and do transactions, it cannot truly care, comfort or create trust. These are crucial measures in ensuring that the human element does not fade into the background.

Second, by investing in hospitality skills, businesses can concentrate more effectively on the customer journey and improve the efficiency of their service. For example, while AI can provide prompts on what to say, it cannot offer genuine comfort to a dissatisfied customer. Hospitality skills are essential to deliver those messages effectively and with care.

These skills help businesses to understand customer management, flow and touchpoints (points of interaction). This in turn strengthens the connection between AI and the customer experience as they interact to deliver a warm welcome.

Third, in developing AI for business use, hospitality skills will become core to the training process in order to improve the customer experience. This kind of hospitality training can transform business services from being standardised and short-termist to those that focus on building a lasting relationship with the customer.

For example, using banking apps, customers receive automatic suggestions on loans, mortgage updates or new accounts. But it is the staff’s hospitality skills that ensure these recommendations are presented with warmth and a genuine understanding of customers’ needs. This delivers experiences using AI but also conveys personalised customer service.

Businesses that engage with hospitality skills will not only navigate the AI revolution, but lead it. By combining AI-driven efficiency with the kind of skills that encourage genuine human connection, they can deliver streamlined services while making customers feel valued. In other words, technology can enhance, not replace, the human touch.

Alisha Ali is affiliated with the Council for Hospitality Management Education (CHME).

Lisa Wyld is affiliated with the Council for Hospitality Management Education (CHME).

Maria Gebbels is affiliated with the Council for Hospitality Management Education (CHME).

– ref. Why hospitality skills can help all businesses adapt to the AI revolution – https://theconversation.com/why-hospitality-skills-can-help-all-businesses-adapt-to-the-ai-revolution-272541

January 29, 2026

How to cut harmful emissions from ditches and canals – new research

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Teresa Silverthorn, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of Liverpool

Ditches and canals are the underdog of the freshwater world. These human-made waterways are often forgotten, devalued and perceived negatively – think “dull as ditchwater”. But these unsung heroes have a hidden potential for climate change mitigation, if they’re managed correctly.

We know that ditches and canals have a large global extent, covering at least 5.3 million hectares — about 22% of the UK’s total land area. However, no one has yet mapped all global ditch and canal networks robustly, so it’s potentially more.

These waterways are also hotspots of greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change. We have previously calculated that ditches emit 333 teragrams of carbon dioxide equivalents (a common unit to express the climate impact of all greenhouse gases), which is nearly comparable to the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2023.

Ditches often contain stagnant waters and are commonly found running through farmland or cities, where they receive high amounts of nutrients from fertilisers, manure and stormwater run-off. This creates the low-oxygen, high-nutrient conditions that are ideal for the production of potent greenhouse gases methane and nitrous oxide – both of which warm the atmosphere considerably more than CO₂.

However, ditches and their surrounding landscape can be managed (by farmers and landowners, for example) in ways that reduce nutrient inputs and therefore lower their greenhouse gas emissions. This makes them an untapped solution for reducing the effects of climate change.

Many nature restoration solutions focus on storing atmospheric carbon – by planting trees or mangroves, for example. But there are also immediate wins to be made simply by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The importance of methane reduction has now been recognised by more than 160 countries, all of which signed the global methane pledge to cut human-caused methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by the end of the decade.

Our new study outlines the steps needed to reduce emissions from global ditches and canals. First, we need to better understand these systems by mapping their global extent. We also need to collect more measurements of greenhouse gas emissions from underrepresented regions like South America and Africa. Emissions from irrigation ditches in these understudied places could be large.

We also need to improve our understanding of how the potent greenhouse gas methane escapes the sediments in bubbles. This involves using sensors that monitor methane concentrations continuously, in order to capture “hot moments” when weather or human activity (such as fertiliser use on farmland) cause sudden pulses of emissions.

All of these strategies will improve estimates of global greenhouse gas emissions from ditches. From that new baseline, any progress in reducing emissions can be more accurately measured.

New directions for ditches

There are several ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ditches and canals. These include reducing fertiliser application rates on farmland, excluding livestock from areas beside ditches to reduce the amount of manure that ends up in waterways (which has already been shown to be effective for ponds), and managing pollution sources like wastewater treatment plants.

In the Netherlands, researchers have tested the effects of dredging agricultural ditches to remove the nutrient- and organic matter-rich sediments that release greenhouse gases.

They found that dredging resulted in a 35% decline in ditch emissions after one year. However, this method isn’t perfect, as the emissions from the removed sediments still need to be accounted for at a later stage, and dredging disturbs aquatic habitats and organisms.

Planting vegetation alongside ditches helps intercept nutrients and sediments before they reach the ditch. This vegetation also provides shading, which reduces water temperature and rates of greenhouse gas emissions. A study across Denmark, Great Britain and Sweden found that riverside vegetation helped to considerably reduce nutrient inputs to rivers and streams, and improved habitats for stream organisms like bugs and frogs.

Introducing floating vegetation can also trap methane and create the conditions for its removal before it is released into the atmosphere. Current trials in the UK are looking at introducing Sphagnum moss to peatland ditches. Once a floating mat of this moss has been established, it can trap bubbles of methane in an oxygen-rich environment created by the photosynthesising moss.

When methane and oxygen are present together, methane-eating bacteria can convert methane to carbon dioxide, which has a much lower impact on the climate. Initial results showed a decrease in methane of approximately 40% when Sphagnum was present.

Some of these techniques might be too expensive to scale, and many are still at the early stages of research into their use in ditches. Nevertheless, ditches and canals can in future be climate heroes – we just need to give them the chance by managing them in smart and sustainable ways.

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Teresa Silverthorn has received funding for ditch research from from Defra, the Environment Agency, and EPSRC (UK research councils).

Jonathan Ritson has receive funding from the GGR-Peat project (UKRI funding, BB/V011561/1).

Mike Peacock has received funding for ditch research from Defra, the Environment Agency, NERC and EPSRC (UK research councils), and Formas and VR (Swedish research councils).

– ref. How to cut harmful emissions from ditches and canals – new research – https://theconversation.com/how-to-cut-harmful-emissions-from-ditches-and-canals-new-research-273251

January 29, 2026

Why keeping quiet about the family feud gave Brand Beckham a commercial boost

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ashleigh Logan-McFarlane, Lecturer in Marketing, Edinburgh Napier University

The ease and global reach of social media posts make them a fitting way to divulge secrets about a commercial dynasty – particularly when your parents are David and Victoria Beckham. In the days after Brooklyn Beckham took to Instagram to say he had cut ties with his A-list family, reactions from the world’s social media users took on a life of their own.

The Beckhams’ PR machine was largely silent on the matter, despite the size of the business empire. If sold, Brand Beckham’s combined businesses are worth an estimated £500 million. In 2024, David Beckham’s DRJB holdings (with business interests in media, marketing, endorsement deals and spirits) declared a US$92 million turnover, with Victoria Beckham Holdings family and beauty brands amassing close to £113 million.

Victoria also owns the trademarks to Brooklyn Peltz Beckham’s name and brand. This means that other businesses cannot use it to market goods or services. And it is alleged that a prenuptial agreement was signed before Brooklyn’s wedding to Nicola Peltz, whose family is worth around US$1.3 billion.

On January 19, Brooklyn shared the lengthy statement on Instagram that confirmed rumours of an ongoing feud with his parents. Among his reasons was the claim that his family values self-promotion and endorsements “above all else”. “Brand Beckham comes first,” he went on.

Brooklyn’s public airing of this private family conflict, combined with David and Victoria’s decision not to respond to his criticisms, fuelled a surge of creative social media content.

Filling a PR vacuum

My own research on how passionate social media users reshaped the narrative during a royal PR crisis can help to explain this. The so-called #KateGate furore blew up after a family photo of the Princess of Wales and her children released for Mother’s Day 2024 had to be withdrawn when it emerged it had been doctored.

While research into public relations typically focuses on how brands can manage crises and address reputational threats, my study found that social media users add a different dimension to a PR crisis. When official PR machines stay silent, as the royals did, social media users start using their posts to co-create their own story about the brand or institution in real time.

This means that crisis narratives aren’t owned by the PR team. As such, brands need to consider how social media users remix, parody and challenge PR using humour and references to news and popular culture. The silent approach is not always effective, and did not work for the royal communications team. It missed opportunities to pick up on and engage with these playful disruptions before they were “formalised” in the press.

Social media users filled the communications void with resurfaced clips that appear to show how frosty the relationship had become.

But the Beckhams have fared better. In response to Brooklyn’s claim that Victoria “hijacked” the first dance at his wedding, people created memes with their own take on how this played out. Some attracted millions of views, with one featuring a clip of Victoria’s 2001 song Not Such an Innocent Girl even getting a “like” from Brooklyn’s brother Cruz.

Regardless of whether these memes mock or support Brooklyn or Brand Beckham, social media users put energy and passion into creating them. David and Victoria did not rush to address Brooklyn’s points or try to put their own case across. Instead, social media users catapulted their creative content to fill the silence with humour and speculation.

At its essence, this is really a family tragedy playing out on a global stage. But it appears it is business as usual for Brand Beckham. If anything, the feud seems to have attracted more attention to other aspects of the family’s lives and businesses. David attended the World Economic Forum in Davos alongside the chief executive of Bank of America. He also continues to post Instagram endorsement deals with brands such as Adidas and Boss clothing, reportedly for £300,000 a time.

Meanwhile sales and streams of Victoria’s single Not Such an Innocent Girl rose by 19,615% in a week, securing the former Spice Girl her first solo UK number one. Both David and Victoria also have documentaries, made by their own production company, streaming on Netflix.

And although it would have been arranged before the rift went public, there was heightened media interest when Victoria received the prestigious Knight of the Order of Arts and Letters from the French culture ministry in Paris surrounded by her other children.

In the age of social media, not all celebrity brands can afford to sit out a PR crisis and allow the posts to act for them. Smaller or lesser-known brands have more freedom to show a sense of humour and engage with the memes, comments and ridicule. But for the Beckhams, silence as a strategy seems to have worked this time.

Ashleigh Logan-McFarlane receives funding from Economic Social Research Council.

– ref. Why keeping quiet about the family feud gave Brand Beckham a commercial boost – https://theconversation.com/why-keeping-quiet-about-the-family-feud-gave-brand-beckham-a-commercial-boost-274483

January 29, 2026

Anti-ICE protesters are following same nonviolent playbook used by people in war zones across the world to fight threats to their communities

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Oliver Kaplan, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of Denver

In Detroit, Mich., volunteers with the Detroit People’s Assembly put together whistle kits designed to alert the community when immigration agents are nearby. Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

From coast to coast, groups of people are springing up to protect members of their communities as Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol agents threaten them with violent enforcement.

In Portland, Oregon, community volunteers have delivered food boxes to migrant families scared to leave their homes. In Portland, Maine, nearly a thousand people turned out for a virtual American Civil Liberties Union “Know Your Rights” training event. And in Minneapolis and St. Paul, volunteers have formed networks to give warning with whistles and phone apps when ICE is prowling the streets.

As someone who for two decades has studied nonviolent movements in war zones, I see many parallels between these movements abroad and those that have been organized recently across the U.S. The communities I have studied – from Colombia to the Philippines to Syria – teach lessons about surviving in the midst of danger that Americans have been discovering instinctively over the past year.

These experiences show that protection of their neighbors is possible. Violence can bring feelings of fear, isolation and powerlessness, but unity can overcome fear, and nonviolence and discipline are key for denying the powerful pretexts for further escalation and harm.

But at the same time, the deaths of Americans Renée Good and Alex Pretti, who were part of a nonviolent movement and were killed by immigration agents in Minneapolis, make it clear that acting to protect neighbors requires courage, and prospects are not always certain.

Here are the core lessons I have learned from the people and the groups I have researched.

Two people on a sidewalk, one blowing a whistle and the other filming with a camera at something on the road. — Members of the public take videos and blow whistles at what they think are Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in unmarked cars driving by in South Portland, Maine, on Jan. 23, 2026.
Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images

1. Organizing is the first step

Community organizing is the act of building social ties, setting decision-making procedures, sharing information and coordinating activities.

In Colombia, I found that it was the more organized communities with vibrant local councils that were better able to protect themselves by avoiding or opposing violence when caught between heavily armed insurgents, paramilitaries and state forces. These organizations provide reassurance to the more hesitant and encourage more people to join in.

America has a strong civic culture and history of organizing, dating back to the Civil Rights Movement and long before, and Minnesota is known for its strong social cohesion. It’s no wonder so many Minnesotans, as well as Chicagoans, Angelenos and other Americans have organized to aid their neighbors and press for justice.

Make no mistake, the act of organizing itself is powerful. I found that insights from the combatants of armed conflicts shed light on this. A former insurgent I interviewed in Colombia quoted to me an adage of Aristotle and Shakespeare: “A single swallow doesn’t make a summer” – meaning there’s safety in numbers.

A mass of people on its own can shift the calculus and behavior of those with weapons and deter them. It’s why there are now many visuals of ICE agents leaving the scene when outnumbered by community members.

2. Adopting nonviolent strategies

Organizing also enables communities to adopt nonviolent methods for accountability and protection without ratcheting up conflict.

These strategies are less political or partisan, since there is usually consensus around promoting safety, which makes it difficult for political figures to oppose. While recent polling on presidential approval and immigration policy still shows a partisan split, ICE is widely unpopular, and a large majority opposes its aggressive tactics.

Americans have taken up many of these nonviolent strategies. They have established early warning networks just as communities did in the Democratic Republic of Congo to guard against attacks by the Lord’s Resistance Army rebel group.

Whether with whistles or WhatsApp, such networks of protectors are sharing information with each other to identify threats and come to each other’s aid.

A screenshot of a Facebook post from the ACLU of Maine noting the large turnout for a 'Know Your Rights training' event on Jan. 23, 2026. — A Facebook post from the ACLU of Maine notes the large turnout for a ‘Know Your Rights’ training event on Jan. 23, 2026.
Facebook

3. Setting up safe zones

Communities in places such as the Philippines have also set up safe zones or “peace zones” to publicize their desire to keep violence away from their residents. This is akin to the declaration of “sanctuary cities” in the U.S. for the issue of immigration.

Communities may also apply different kinds of pressure on armed aggressors. While protest is the most visible approach, dialogue is also possible. Pressure can take the form of persuasion as well as shaming to make trigger-happy agents think twice about what they’re doing and use restraint.

In the U.S., protectors have shown great creativity when it comes to exerting pressure. Grandmas and priests are visible symbols who have influence through their moral and spiritual status. The use of humor and farce – such as protesters dressed in frog suits – can help to de-escalate tensions.

It may not always seem like it, but reputations and concerns about accountability matter, even to bullies. That’s why ICE agents don’t want to be seen enacting violence. Hence the face masks, the snatching of protesters’ phones and the misleading statements by officials about violent encounters.

A line of people on their knees, praying, some wearing items that denote they are part of the clergy, with police behind them. — A large group of protesters, including clergy, gather at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in frigid temperatures on Jan. 23, 2026, to demonstrate against immigration enforcement operations in the Twin Cities metro area.
Elizabeth Flores/The Minnesota Star Tribune via Getty Images

4. Finding the facts

In the “fog of war,” the powerful may try to twist the facts and mislead and stigmatize communities and individuals to create pretexts for even greater uses of force.

In Colombia and Afghanistan, armed groups falsely accused individuals of being enemy collaborators. Communities addressed this by conducting their own investigations of those accused, after which community elders could vouch for them.

In the U.S., Americans are recording cellphone videos and collecting community evidence to counter official lies, such as accusations of domestic terrorism – and for future efforts to pursue accountability.

Standing up for others

Finally, what’s known as “accompaniment” is also important.

For example, international humanitarian staff and volunteers have gone to communities in places such as Colombia, Guatemala and South Sudan to let armed groups know that outsiders are watching them and acting as unarmed bodyguards for human rights defenders.

In the U.S., volunteers, citizens and religious leaders have used their less vulnerable social statuses to stand up for noncitizens who are under threat, even positioning themselves between immigration agents and those who may be at risk. People from around the country have also sent messages and traveled in solidarity to the cities and states where operations have been carried out.

Yet that can have consequences even for those who believe themselves less likely to be attacked. An ICE agent on Sept. 19, 2025, shot a clergyman in the head with a pepper ball while he was protesting at an ICE detention facility in Chicago.

Acting to protect oneself, other people and communities can involve risks. But civil society has power, too, and many communities in war zones in other countries have outlasted their oppressors. Americans are learning and doing what civilians in war zones worldwide have done for decades, while also writing their own story in the process.

Oliver Kaplan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Anti-ICE protesters are following same nonviolent playbook used by people in war zones across the world to fight threats to their communities – https://theconversation.com/anti-ice-protesters-are-following-same-nonviolent-playbook-used-by-people-in-war-zones-across-the-world-to-fight-threats-to-their-communities-274498