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March 24, 2026

The latest world climate report is grim, but it’s not the end of the story

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Andrew King, ARC Future Fellow and Associate Professor in Climate Science, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, The University of Melbourne

It’s no secret our planet is heating up.

And here’s the evidence: we’ve just experienced the 11 hottest years on record, with 2025 being the second or third warmest in global history.

The annual State of the Climate report, published today by the World Meteorological Organization, suggests we’re still too reliant on fossil fuels. And that’s pushing us further from our goal to decarbonise.

So what is happening to our climate? And how should we respond?

The climate picture

Unfortunately, the most recent climate data makes for grim reading.

Let’s look back at 2025, through the lens of four climate change indicators.

Carbon dioxide

We now have a record amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, about 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. And we’re still emitting large amounts of carbon dioxide through our use of fossil fuels. In 2025, global emissions reached record high levels. The carbon dioxide we emit can stay in the atmosphere for a long time. So each year we keep emitting large amounts of carbon dioxide, the more concentrated it will be in our atmosphere.

Temperature

In 2025, the world experienced its second or third warmest year on record, depending on which dataset you use. The average temperature was about 1.43°C above the pre-industrial average.

This is particularly unusual given we observed slight La Niña conditions in the Pacific region. La Niña is a type of climate pattern characterised by temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean. It typically creates milder, wetter conditions in Australia and has a cooling effect on the global average temperature. But even with La Niña conditions, the planet stayed exceptionally hot.

And each of the last 11 years were hotter than any of the previous years in the global temperature series. This is true across all the different datasets used in the report. However, this does not mean a new record was set each year.

Oceans and ice

In 2025, the heat held within the world’s oceans reached a record high. And as our oceans continue to warm, sea levels will also rise. Hotter oceans also speed up the process of acidification, where oceans absorb an increased amount of carbon dioxide with potentially devastating consequences for some marine animals.

The amount of Arctic and Antarctic ice is also well below average. This report shows sea ice extent, a measure of how much ocean is covered by at least some sea ice, is at or close to record low levels in the Arctic. Meanwhile, the amount of ice stored in glaciers has also significantly decreased.

Extreme weather

Research shows many of the most devastating extreme weather events of 2025 were exacerbated by human-driven climate change. The heatwaves in Central Asia, wildfires in East Asia and Hurricane Melissa in the Carribean are just three examples. Through attribution analysis, which is how scientists determine the causes of an extreme weather or climate event, this report highlights how our greenhouse gas emissions are making severe weather events more common and intense.

How does Australia stack up?

Compared to most other countries, Australia has a disproportionate impact on the global climate.

This is largely because our per capita carbon dioxide emissions are about three times the global average. That means on average, each of us emits more carbon dioxide than people in all European countries and the US.

Emissions matter because they exacerbate the greenhouse effect. That is the process by which greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, trap heat near Earth’s surface. So by emitting more greenhouse gases, we contribute to global warming. And research suggests Earth is warming twice as fast today, compared to previous decades.

However, Australia is also experiencing first-hand the adverse effects of human-induced climate change.

In 2025, we lived through our fourth-warmest year on record. The annual surface temperatures of the seas around Australia reached historic highs, beating the record temperatures set in 2024. And last March was the hottest March we’ve seen across the continent.

Here in Australia, we are also battling longer and hotter heatwaves and bushfire seasons. And scientists warn these extreme weather events will only become more common.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s annual summary highlights how Australia’s climate is changing.

So what can we do?

The 2025 State of the Climate Report shows how much, and how quickly, we are changing our climate. And it is worryingly similar to previous reports, highlighting the need for urgent action.

The priority should be decreasing our emissions. This would slow down global warming, which will only continue if we keep the status quo. Some countries are already decarbonising rapidly, in part through transitioning to renewable electricity supplies. Others, including Australia, need to move much faster to reduce emissions.

Crucially, we must also meet our net zero targets. In Australia, as in many other countries, we are aiming to reach net zero by 2050. The sooner we reach net zero, the more likely we are to avoid harmful climate change impacts in future. To achieve net zero, we need to significantly reduce our emissions while also increasing how much carbon we remove from the atmosphere.

Even if we meet our net zero targets, climate change will not magically disappear. However, by turning away from fossil fuels and cutting our greenhouse gas emissions now, we may spare future generations from its worst effects. That’s the least we can do.

Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council (Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century and a Future Fellowship) and the Australian government National Environmental Science Program.

– ref. The latest world climate report is grim, but it’s not the end of the story – https://theconversation.com/the-latest-world-climate-report-is-grim-but-its-not-the-end-of-the-story-278886

March 23, 2026

We’re asking the wrong questions about women’s athletic performance

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kurt Michael Downes, PhD Candidate, Kinesiology, University of Windsor

In 1992, an article in Nature asked, “Will women soon outrun men?” The question was sparked by a series of remarkable performances by women, including Florence Griffith-Joyner’s 100-metre world record in 1988.

At the time, women’s performances were improving faster than men’s, prompting speculation that the gap might eventually close in endurance events, and then possibly the sprints.

More than three decades later, the answer is clearer. Prior to puberty, boys and girls perform similarly, but the hormonal surge at adolescence sets in motion a lasting gap in speed, strength and endurance. Women have continued to narrow the gap, but a sizeable difference still remains. Even when talent, training and effort are equal, biology still sets upper limits of performance.

But does this really matter? Women’s sport does not need to be compared to men’s sport in order for it to be considered elite or credible. It can stand on its own. Maybe the real question is not how close the gap is between men and women but instead whether we are providing women with the training and resources to maximize their potential.

Puberty changes everything

Prior to puberty, boys and girls are similar from a performance perspective. Girls often keep pace or outperform boys, with similar race times, jump height and endurance capacities. Once puberty enters the equation, the balance shifts.

In boys, testosterone surges well above that of females at any age, driving gains in muscle, bone, heart size, lung capacity and hemoglobin — an iron-rich protein in blood cells that transports oxygen from the lungs to body tissues, including working muscles, which plays a major role in sports and is especially important in endurance events.

These traits boost speed, power and endurance capabilities.

On the other hand, girls experience spikes in estrogen and progesterone during puberty. These hormones are essential for reproductive health and are associated with higher body fat and wider pelvic structure, which in turn could alter athletic performance.

By the late teens, and importantly after the start of puberty, the divide is obvious. Men outperform women by 10 to 30 per cent across the majority of athletic events not because of differences in dedication or effort, but because physiology has set different athletic ceilings.

Biology sets the boundaries

Expanded investment, higher salaries, greater participation opportunities, stronger advocacy, the growth of professional leagues and improved coaching and training have benefited some sports like women’s football (soccer) over the last few decades. Recent developments, such as the new WNBA collective bargaining agreement that includes salary expansion and revenue sharing reflect a shift in momentum towards an increasing value in women’s sport.

Nonetheless, once training conditions become comparable at the elite level, the performance gap does not disappear — it stabilizes. Despite similar coaching, facilities and sports science support, a consistent performance divide remains because after puberty, muscle size, lung capacity and hemoglobin set a baseline that training cannot erase.

None of this diminishes the extraordinary sporting achievements of female athletes.

Exceptions to the rule? Where women excel

There are events in which women outperform men, and these cases are telling. In ultra-events and cold-water swims, women have occasionally won outright, likely as a result of greater fat metabolism, better pacing and higher tolerance for prolonged discomfort. These traits matter less in explosive events but can be decisive in prolonged endurance or sustained output activities.

Also, performance includes aspects of sport — like skill, tactics, and strategy — that are difficult to compare. The elements are a reminder that the performance gap shifts with context, rather than being finite.

Alternative questions

Acknowledging these differences does not diminish women’s achievements. Instead, it protects the principle of fair competition that women’s sport was created to uphold. Fairness, however, is not the same as equity.

The majority of women’s sport still receives less funding, media coverage and scientific investment, there are gender-specific barriers to sport and physical activity participation, and there are major gaps in understanding how female-specific physiology such as menstrual cycles, contraceptives and pregnancy affect performance and recovery.

These are realities that coaching practice and sport policy are only beginning to tackle. And this leads to an alternative question: when will the coaching/administration gap close?

This question is put forward in the face of continued disparities in the number of female coaches and administrators across most sports, a fact noted at the most recent Winter Olympic games.

Similarly, when will the training gap close? Along with sex differences in physiology, coaches and athletes acknowledge differences in coach-athlete relationships, injury risk and other aspects of health, yet training often continues to draw on sport science literature and sport programming historically based on male participants.

Anecdotally, after presenting on these topics to a group of high-performance coaches, several described seeing these differences in practice and expressed frustration that the research base remains too limited to guide them in sex-specific, evidence-based training practices. Nonetheless, expanding this research, as well as increasing the representation of women in sport leadership and administration, would be a step forward in creating change.

Will female athletes ever compete with males in the most physically demanding sports? Maybe, maybe not. But is this the right question?

Women’s sport does not need to mirror men’s to matter. Its value stems from fair competition and athletic achievement. It has earned the right to visibility, respect and investment — both financially and through research — to best allow all of our aspiring athletes to maximize their full potential.

Kurt Michael Downes receives funding from the Coaching Association of Ontario (CAO). He is the President and Head Coach the Border City Athletics Club (not-for-profit) and is a member on the boards of Inclusion in Canadian Sports Network (not-for-profit), Family Fuse (not-for-profit) and Resilient Kids Canada (not-for-profit).

Kevin Milne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We’re asking the wrong questions about women’s athletic performance – https://theconversation.com/were-asking-the-wrong-questions-about-womens-athletic-performance-270264

March 23, 2026

Psychological toll of betrayal trauma may help explain why women kept silent for decades after alleged abuse by civil rights icon Cesar Chavez

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Anne P. DePrince, Professor of Psychology, University of Denver

Cesar Chavez became a national hero for his advocacy of farmworkers’ rights. Here he gives a talk at Boston University in April 1979. Ted Dully/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Multiple women told The New York Times that Mexican American civil rights hero Cesar Chavez assaulted them decades ago, including when some were just girls, one as young as 13. Over their multiyear investigation, published on March 18, 2026, journalists at the paper found “extensive evidence” of that abuse by poring over historical records and conducting interviews with more than 60 people.

While yearslong investigations into abuse allegations are rare, silence about abuse is common.

As a clinical psychologist who studies interpersonal trauma, I’ve seen how the dynamics of abuse can lead to silence, even over decades.

This research can help answer the question many asked when they heard about the charges against Chavez: Why didn’t the women speak earlier?

Power and trust betrayed

Among the women who disclosed abuse by Chavez, Dolores Huerta described seeing him “as my boss, as my hero, as, you know, somebody that would do the impossible.” Debra Rojas said, “I had love for him … He did his grooming very well.”

When perpetrators abuse those who trust and depend on them, the betrayal adds to the harm of trauma. Betrayal trauma theory helps explain why.

A woman with dark hair and a red dress and hat looking at a large mural of a man with brown hair. — United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta looks at a mural of the late Cesar Chavez on the San Jose State University campus in San Jose, Calif., on Sept. 4, 2008.
AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, File

Victims who depend on the people abusing them face extraordinary pressure to minimize what is happening. Disclosure can mean losing relationships or resources that are necessary for survival. Children abused by caregivers or community leaders risk relationships that they need to get their basic needs met. Adults who disclose abuse or harassment by employers risk losing their jobs and economic security.

Adding to the harm of abuse, perpetrators commonly twist reality to keep victims silent. They might directly instruct victims not to tell others what happened. They might also tell victims that they are actually the ones to blame for causing the abuse or that no one will believe them.

Victims must adapt to this untenable situation in which they depend on the very people causing harm.

For some people, betrayal results in dissociation symptoms and memory impairment for what happened. Dissociation is a common response to traumatic stress that can include amnesia, feelings that things are unreal or feeling disconnected from what is happening. Dissociation and memory impairment can help victims maintain necessary attachments in the short run.

Betrayal also contributes to more shame and self-blame, as well as more severe psychological and physical health problems.

Shame and self-blame can make it harder to disclose what happened. Not surprising, then, victims of high-betrayal traumas are less likely to disclose what happened relative to other kinds of traumas.

When betrayal-trauma survivors do speak up, delayed disclosures can be met with blame or disbelief, even from health providers. Survivors with more severe psychological symptoms are also met with more negative reactions to their disclosures.

Betrayal also makes escaping abusive relationships, including physically violent ones, difficult. Greater dependence on the perpetrator has been linked with a greater likelihood of staying with an abusive partner a year after a police report of domestic violence.

Cultural and institutional betrayal add to harm

Women told The New York Times that they stayed silent about their abuse, which for some began when they were girls, in part “for fear of tarnishing the image of a man who has become the face of the Latino civil rights movement.”

When people in marginalized groups are abused by someone from the same group, that constitutes an additional wound. Dr. Jennifer Gómez described this as “cultural betrayal trauma.”

With cultural betrayal trauma comes even greater pressure to stay silent as well as greater harm from the abuse.

When institutions such as churches, schools or unions fail to stop abuse or respond appropriately, that institutional betrayal can also add to the harm caused by the original abuse. In turn, institutional betrayal predicts greater dissociation and health problems, adding to the burden of abuse.

Anticipating disbelief and blame

Ana Murguia told The New York Times that she believed she would be blamed for the abuse.

Huerta, who was one of three co-founders, along with Chavez, of what ultimately became the United Farm Workers union, told the newspaper that she “feared that no one within the union would believe her.”

Anticipating disbelief and blame affects decisions to disclose. When researchers asked college women who were sexually victimized at some point in their lives why they kept what happened to themselves, they heard four common reasons. Women kept assaults private because they felt shame, guilt or embarrassment, minimized what happened, feared consequences of disclosing or wanted privacy.

Fears about negative reactions are unfortunately well founded. Research shows that when victims do disclose, victim blaming and other negative reactions are common. In turn, those negative social reactions add to psychological distress and the harm of abuse.

Connection and courage: Antidotes to betrayal

In the wake of the harm that betrayal trauma causes, healing is possible through connection and care.

Research shows that people can learn to respond in better ways to disclosures of abuse, such as connecting people to resources and expressing empathy. In addition, institutions that act with courage in the wake of abuse, such as by making it easy to report or taking actions to prevent future abuse, can help reduce harm to survivors.

Screenshot of an Instagram post about how a foundation honoring Dolores Huerta 'applauds her bravery in sharing her very personal story.' — Screenshot of an Instagram post by the Dolores Huerta Foundation in the wake of her revelations of abuse by Cesar Chavez.
Dolores Huerta Foundation Instagram

When survivors disclose, avoiding blame, disbelief and other negative reactions can minimize additional harm. Taking steps to offer emotional support and resources can even help open doors.

That’s what my research team found when we asked sexual assault survivors about the reactions they received from service providers, such as counselors or victim advocates. When survivors received more tangible support, they were more likely to later disclose what happened in a formal report to the police.

Anne P. DePrince has received funding from the Department of Justice, National Institutes of Health, State of Colorado, and University of Denver. She has received honoraria for giving presentations and has been paid as a consultant. She has a book with Oxford University Press. She is an Advisory Group Member of the National Crime Victim Law Institute and a Senior Advisor to the Center for Institutional Courage.

– ref. Psychological toll of betrayal trauma may help explain why women kept silent for decades after alleged abuse by civil rights icon Cesar Chavez – https://theconversation.com/psychological-toll-of-betrayal-trauma-may-help-explain-why-women-kept-silent-for-decades-after-alleged-abuse-by-civil-rights-icon-cesar-chavez-278950

March 23, 2026

Psychological toll of betrayal trauma may help explain why women kept silent for decades after their allegations of abuse against civil rights icon Cesar Chavez

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Anne P. DePrince, Professor of Psychology, University of Denver

While yearslong investigations into abuse allegations are rare, silence about abuse is common.

As a clinical psychologist who studies interpersonal trauma, I’ve seen how the dynamics of abuse can lead to silence, even over decades.

This research can help answer the question many asked when they heard about the charges against Chavez: Why didn’t the women speak earlier?

Power and trust betrayed

When perpetrators abuse those who trust and depend on them, the betrayal adds to the harm of trauma. Betrayal trauma theory helps explain why.

Victims must adapt to this untenable situation in which they depend on the very people causing harm.

Betrayal also contributes to more shame and self-blame, as well as more severe psychological and physical health problems.

Shame and self-blame can make it harder to disclose what happened. Not surprising, then, victims of high-betrayal traumas are less likely to disclose what happened relative to other kinds of traumas.

Cultural and institutional betrayal add to harm

When people in marginalized groups are abused by someone from the same group, that constitutes an additional wound. Dr. Jennifer Gómez described this as “cultural betrayal trauma.”

With cultural betrayal trauma comes even greater pressure to stay silent as well as greater harm from the abuse.

Anticipating disbelief and blame

Ana Murguia told The New York Times that she believed she would be blamed for the abuse.

Connection and courage: Antidotes to betrayal

In the wake of the harm that betrayal trauma causes, healing is possible through connection and care.

When survivors disclose, avoiding blame, disbelief and other negative reactions can minimize additional harm. Taking steps to offer emotional support and resources can even help open doors.

– ref. Psychological toll of betrayal trauma may help explain why women kept silent for decades after their allegations of abuse against civil rights icon Cesar Chavez – https://theconversation.com/psychological-toll-of-betrayal-trauma-may-help-explain-why-women-kept-silent-for-decades-after-their-allegations-of-abuse-against-civil-rights-icon-cesar-chavez-278950

March 23, 2026

Over 400 million barrels will be added to the oil market soon – what are strategic reserves and what can they do?

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer in International Studies, University of Washington

The world is about to open up reserve oil supplies. Photo illustration by PashaIgnatov/iStock/Getty Images Plus

In the second week of the Iran war – with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, cutting off shipping of 20% of the world’s oil supply – the International Energy Agency announced the largest release of strategic oil reserves in history. Thirty-two countries will sell a combined 412 million barrels from their reserves into the global market over four months, beginning in late March 2026.

Energy researchers like me know that the concept of a strategic oil stock goes back to the early 20th century, when the U.S. Navy first substituted oil for coal as a fuel for ships. Starting in 1912, Congress set aside several petroleum-rich areas in the U.S., including Elk Hills in California and Teapot Dome in Wyoming. In times of need, oil wells could be drilled in those regions to produce fuel for the Navy.

The current system involves oil that has already been produced and is stored so it can enter the market quickly. That approach was created by the International Energy Agency soon after its founding in the wake of the 1973-74 oil crisis. At that time, Arab nations in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut exports by as much as 25% to protest U.S. and other countries’ support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Global oil prices soared by over 350%, the equivalent today of US$70 – the price before Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran on Feb. 28, 2026 – jumping to $245.

Now, strategic reserves are a system of national oil stocks intended to replace at least 90 days of each country’s imports. In some cases, such as Japan, the reserve covers over 200 days. The 415 million barrels in the U.S. reserve as of March 13, 2026, covers only about 64 days.

A close-up photo of a gas pump shows prices above $4 per gallon — Gas prices have climbed since the U.S. attacked Iran.
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

What is the purpose of strategic oil reserves?

These reserves have a twofold purpose: to replace a portion of the disrupted supply and to moderate the resulting increase in prices.

In cases of a major loss to world supply, the International Energy Agency will propose a coordinated release from member countries. There have been five such releases, most recently in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused oil prices to go above $120.

Together, members hold government stockpiles of about 1.2 billion barrels, with another 600 million barrels stored by private industry. The United States’ expected contribution of 172 million barrels is nearly half of the upcoming release.

To fill the U.S. reserve, the U.S. Department of Energy buys oil on the open market, using money funded by past sales and congressional appropriations. When releasing oil from the reserve, it sells to the highest bidder on the regular oil market, just like any other oil producer. Ideally, the reserve buys oil when the price is low and sells it at times of emergency when prices are high – though presidents of both parties have been accused of ordering oil releases for political gains rather than strictly economic reasons.

What can a major release from these reserves achieve?

Strategic releases are a short-term way to lessen the shock of an immediate supply loss.

A release provides a certain number of barrels – in the current case, perhaps 3 million to 4 million barrels per day – for a period of a few months.

But that amount is not enough to replace the roughly 10 million barrels per day or more now held back by the closed Strait of Hormuz.

My own study of the history of U.S. releases suggests, however, that a release can prevent prices from climbing to extreme levels at an early stage and staying there. That is because oil prices are mainly determined by futures contracts – legally binding agreements to buy or sell a quantity of oil at an agreed price for delivery one to three months in the future.

If oil buyers and sellers know additional oil will be released to the market in that period, they will likely agree to a lower price. So the strategic release temporarily moderates price increases.

What about the US reserve?

A map with red dots showing locations of SPR spots. — The map shows the locations of the oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Department of Energy

Congress created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975. Its oil is stored underground in a series of large salt domes in four locations across the Gulf Coast, in Texas and Louisiana.

Congress originally said the reserve should hold up to 1 billion barrels of crude and refined petroleum products. Though it has never reached that size, the U.S. reserve was until 2025 the largest in the world, with a maximum volume of 713.5 million barrels.

Over the past decade, however, China has aggressively expanded its own stocks to an estimated 1.4 billion barrels. Such an enormous volume can be viewed as a sign of Beijing’s deep concern about oil security, as China relies on imports to supply more than 70% of its consumption.

In mid-March 2026, meanwhile, the U.S. reserve was only 60% full at 415 million barrels. In 2022, the Biden administration released 180 million barrels in response to the price jump caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. An analysis by the U.S. Treasury Department concluded the release did reduce market volatility and lower prices at the pump by up to 30 to 40 cents per gallon. Nonetheless, it has not been a priority under the Biden or Trump administrations to refill the reserve.

As a result, the release of 172 million barrels recently ordered by the White House will temporarily shrink the U.S. reserve to 243 million barrels – only 34% of its capacity. That level is its lowest since the early 1980s.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright has said plans are in place to add 200 million barrels back later in 2026. But doing so would return the reserve only to the pre-war stock level.

Risk or reward?

Nonetheless, the oil shock that has happened as a result of the Iran war has proven that the idea of strategic reserves is still relevant. Though the process of how it is utilized can be debated, having emergency stocks of a vital resource subject to supply crises can hardly be called irrational.

In the early days of the war, the White House said there was no reason for a release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

But only days later, the administration changed its mind, reportedly because President Donald Trump saw oil prices soaring and remaining elevated.

But, as noted, this withdrawal will leave the U.S. and other nations in a highly vulnerable position. Additional price increases – like those that have occurred because of attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities, production, and shipment locations – could well lead to a second call from the International Energy Agency to release oil from the world’s remaining reserves.

Scott L. Montgomery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Over 400 million barrels will be added to the oil market soon – what are strategic reserves and what can they do? – https://theconversation.com/over-400-million-barrels-will-be-added-to-the-oil-market-soon-what-are-strategic-reserves-and-what-can-they-do-278370

March 23, 2026

How the words that Iran and America use about each other paved the way for conflict

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Trang Chu, Associate Fellow, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford

The conflict between the US – and its partner Israel – and Iran was nearly half a century in the making. Many explanations have been offered: strategic miscalculation, nuclear brinkmanship, regional rivalry and the failure of deterrence of Iran’s nuclear programme. But there is also the nature of the language through which each side has come to perceive the other.

Over 47 years, the language on each side has progressively hardened from assessments of behaviour into verdicts about the moral nature of each side’s adversary. It not only describes the enemy, but actively participates in creating it.

The language of American enmity towards Iran did not begin as a full moral verdict. In the 1980s and 1990s, Iran’s clerical leadership appeared in western media and policy discourse as the “mad mullahs”. It was a label that personalised the conflict and cast Iranian leaders as irrational rather than simply hostile. By the 1990s, the “rogue state” frame took hold, still defining Iran by its behaviour rather than its nature: a rogue, in principle, could change course.

A significant shift occurred in January 2002 when George W. Bush designated Iran as part of the “axis of evil”. His speechwriter David Frum later recalled drafting “axis of hatred”, but Bush insisted on using “evil” instead. This choice was unsurprising, as Bush’s was widely seen a “faith-based” presidency, influenced by deeply internalised evangelical Christianity.

By February 2026, the vocabulary had reached its most extreme register. Donald Trump described Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as “one of the most evil people in history”, killed along with “his gang of bloodthirsty THUGS”. In a video posted on his Truth Social, Trump explained the collapse of negotiations by stating that Iran’s leaders “just wanted to practise evil”. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, invoked the Book of Esther, equating the Iranian leadership with Haman — the inherently evil villain of Jewish scripture. He framed the operation as the fulfilment of a 2,500-year moral obligation.

Iran had its own vocabulary, with roots that were theological before becoming political. The designation of America by the Islamic Republic’s first supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as the “Great Satan” drew on the Quranic figure of shaitan ar-rajim (accursed one/outcast devil). It eventually became a category through which American actions – the 1953 coup and decades of support for the deposed shah — were interpreted. The term also served a domestic purpose: the Great Satan depicted any Iranian advocate of rapprochement as a collaborator with Satan. This made moderation seem less like a policy dispute and more like a form of moral treason.

When Bush named Iran in his axis of evil, a parallel mechanism emerged on the other side. Political analysts found Iranian elites overwhelmingly viewed the designation as a boon for conservative factions in Iran – the metaphor appearing to reinforce the intransigence it claimed to criticise. Over the following two decades, Tehran increasingly framed its regional alignment as an axis of resistance: a loosely connected network of allied movements presented not as acts of aggression but as heroic solidarity against a cosmic aggressor.

What stands out across this arc is a pattern of accumulation. Each new label — Great Satan, mad mullahs, rogue state, axis of evil, axis of resistance — added another layer to the adversary’s story, making it progressively more resistant to revision. Both sides converged on the same device, each attributing a corrupted moral nature to the other, an entity whose soul was the central issue.

A soul to condemn

National anthropomorphism — the metaphorical attribution of human traits to a nation-state — is a common feature of political language. “Mother Russia”, “Uncle Sam”, and “Homeland-Mother China” each give the country a face, a will and a singular identity that can be addressed, celebrated or defended. Such figures allow citizens to experience attachment, obligation and hurt as if directed toward a single person.

However, labels such as “Great Satan”, “the Global Arrogance”, “mad mullahs”, and “gang of bloodthirsty thugs” serve a fundamentally different purpose. They moralise and condemn a nation’s soul itself. The moment a nation is characterised as evil rather than as an adversary, it drifts out of the realm of diplomacy altogether.

The framings were not just hostile but asymmetrical, with clear geopolitical implications. Iran’s language depicted the US as untrustworthy yet highly capable – powerful, calculating, world‑devouring. This portrays an adversary whose strengths you resent and feel compelled to match. It carries an emotional logic of envy in the technical sense – a rivalrous resentment towards an opponent you tacitly admit is formidable. Seen through such a lens, Iran’s nuclear ambitions appear less as pure aggression and more as an effort to close a capability gap with an opponent whose strength its own rhetoric acknowledges.

The US framing attributes untrustworthiness and malevolent incompetence to Iran. They are a country of mad mullahs, a rogue state, a gang of bloodthirsty thugs whose leaders “just wanted to practise evil”. This does not sketch a formidable rival – it conjures something menacing in intent yet incapable of reason, operating below the threshold of rational calculation. Groups framed in this manner tend to elicit contempt. An enemy framed as contemptuous is less likely to register as an adversary that can be deterred and more likely to appear as a problem to be removed.

Its members cease to exist as reasoning agents. Their stated aims are no longer believed, their experiences no longer imagined and their inner life no longer granted as grounds for negotiation.

When that perception becomes embedded within political leadership, the arguments for engagement with the adversary start to disintegrate.

What the words have led to

The US-Israeli strikes happened in the middle of active diplomacy, not after its failure. Iran had proposed a pause on enrichment and zero stockpiling. But within a framework that had spent 47 years defining Iran’s nature rather than its behaviour as the key issue, no such proposal could be seen as genuine by Washington. When a nation’s nature is repeatedly portrayed as irredeemably evil, what it does at the negotiating table becomes insignificant. The nature precedes the behaviour, and no behaviour can change it.

To each side, the identity judgements of nearly half a century have become almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Each side will interpret what follows as confirmation of what it has always believed. That is what 47 years of presupposed moral condemnation can become: a frame so absolute and impenetrable that the violence it accompanies becomes a vindication.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How the words that Iran and America use about each other paved the way for conflict – https://theconversation.com/how-the-words-that-iran-and-america-use-about-each-other-paved-the-way-for-conflict-279015

March 23, 2026

US attacks on Cuban medical missions risk damaging healthcare for poor people in developing countries

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helen Yaffe, Lecturer in Economic and Social History, University of Glasgow

Cuban doctors who worked in Mexico during the height of the COVID pandemic return to Havana. Yandry_kw/Shutterstock

There were tearful scenes in the central American nation of Honduras on February 23, as locals said goodbye to the Cuban healthcare professionals who had been treating them for free for around two years. It came after the Honduran government abruptly ended the Cuban medical mission under pressure from the administration of the US president, Donald Trump.

That same day, a “sensitive” US State Department memo was sent to the secretary of state, Marco Rubio. It discussed the US strategy to sabotage Cuba’s medical internationalism, which has been an integral part of the island nation’s foreign policy since 1960. In recent years it has also become a key pillar of its economy.

The US has imposed unilateral sanctions on Cuba for more than 60 years. These prevent Cuba from engaging in “normal” international trade – for example, third parties cannot sell goods to Cuba if 10% of their components are from US companies or subsidiaries. And Cuba cannot export goods to the US. On top of that, the US blockade severely restricts Cuba’s access to the international financial system.

In this context, the export of medical professionals has become vital to the Cuban economy. For decades the Cuban government sent medical missions around the world as a donation to developing nations. But over the past two decades, it has developed cooperation agreements under which governments or local authorities pay the Cuban government for the medical services of its healthcare professionals.

Attacking that revenue looks to be a key component of the US push for regime change in Cuba by the end of the year. This is alongside the total oil blockade imposed by Trump’s executive order on January 29, which has now caused multiple national blackouts that have left the entire island in the dark.

It is a policy of carrots and sticks. Countries kicking out Cuban medics are offered US support for “infrastructure modernisation” – things like telemedicine and virtual training. A year earlier, Rubio had announced visa restrictions for current and former officials and their families from anywhere in the world who took part in Cuban programmes.

By mid-March this year, neighbouring governments fell into line. Guatemala, Paraguay, the Bahamas, Guyana and Jamaica terminated Cuban medical missions, ending decades of cooperation. In Guatemala, more than 400 Cuban healthcare professionals, most of them doctors, are serving indigenous communities under a three decades-long partnership. The last doctors will leave by the end of the year.

Cuban doctors leaving Honduras in February 2026.

The US government’s attack on Cuban medical internationalism is not new. It began in 2006, the year after the oil-for-doctors programme between Cuba and Venezuela transformed the export of healthcare professionals into Cuba’s greatest revenue source.

US policy sought to eliminate this income and undermine the prestige the programmes earned the island. The then US president, George W Bush, set up the Cuban Medical Professional Parole (CMPP) Program, encouraging Cuban medics abroad to abandon missions and defect to the US. The programme was ended only in 2017, in Barack Obama’s final days as president.

Despite this, and reflecting the deficit in healthcare globally, Cuba’s earnings from the export of healthcare services rose. Revenues in 2018 (the first year Cuba published separate data for health services) were US$6.4 billion (£4.8 billion). Trump’s first administration developed policies, and funding, to sabotage these programmes.

Cuba’s bill of health

It also devised a new justification for doing this. The US government could not openly demand that countries sacrifice the health and wellbeing of their populations just to deny Cuba revenue. So instead, it accused Cuba of human trafficking and equated its healthcare professionals to slaves.

Anyone who has spoken to Cuban participants – as I have – knows the overseas service contracts they sign provide them with their regular Cuban salary, plus extra remuneration from the host country. They are guaranteed holidays and contact with families.

Even with tens of thousands of medical workers overseas, the state’s investment in healthcare and medical training means that the Cuban population has the highest ratio of doctors per person in the world. In 2022, it was said to have nine doctors and nine nurses for every 1,000 citizens. In the US, there are 2.6 doctors per 1,000 citizens and in the UK the figure is 3.2.

For many Cuban healthcare professionals, it signifies the fulfilment of an internationalist duty; for others a way to travel or increase their income. The Cuban government takes the lion’s share of revenues and puts them back into Cuba’s universal free public healthcare provision and medical training.

But under Trump’s second administration, Rubio, the son of Cuban migrants who left the island during the Batista dictatorship, has spearheaded a renewed attack on the island’s international medical programmes. The recent State Department memo stated that Cuban medical brigades were a key source of “hard cash” for the regime.

The four forms of Cuban medical internationalism practices established in the 1960s are:

emergency medical brigades overseas
treatment of foreign patients in Cuba
training foreign students as healthcare professionals, and,
establishment of public healthcare facilities overseas.

This contribution to developing nations has often been ignored or censored. But it translates into millions of lives saved and improved globally every year. Sabotaging medical internationalism would devastate Cuba. But it would also leave millions of people around the world without the vital medical attention that they had previously enjoyed.

Helen Yaffe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. US attacks on Cuban medical missions risk damaging healthcare for poor people in developing countries – https://theconversation.com/us-attacks-on-cuban-medical-missions-risk-damaging-healthcare-for-poor-people-in-developing-countries-278748

March 23, 2026

Why the damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure could push costs higher for years to come

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adi Imsirovic, Lecturer in Energy Systems, University of Oxford

Qatar’s Ras Laffan “energy city” was hit by Iranian strikes. PaPicasso/Shutterstock

On March 19, Ras Laffan, the largest liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal in the world, supplying one-fifth of the world’s super-chilled fuel, was hit by Iranian missiles and drones. The Qatari terminal suffered substantial damage in the strikes – fires were raging across the gas-to-liquids facility within the complex, which covers 295 square kilometres – the size of a large city.

Investments worth tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars disappeared into thin air. Damage was estimated to be so extensive that QatarEnergy’s CEO, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, said the company may have to declare a “force majeure” (non-fulfilment of orders due to circumstances outside their control) on long-term contracts. He said this could affect LNG supplies to Italy, Belgium, Korea and China “for up to five years”.

Similar to oil, gas exports from the Persian Gulf supplied about 20% of world demand. But gas (mostly methane) is a very different fuel from crude oil. To move it in liquified form, methane must be chilled to below -162°C.

But at these temperatures steel becomes brittle and shatters. So storing and transporting LNG in ships is expensive and very energy-intensive. Liquefaction and transportation of methane can easily consume 15% of the initial natural gas extracted.

It also means that the infrastructure that enables a highly flammable and explosive fuel to be handled at these extreme conditions has to be complex and consequently very expensive. Ras Laffan, for example, was built over decades and in several phases, costing tens of billions of dollars.

No quick fix

Interestingly, Qatar’s North Field and Iran’s South Pars gas field are part of the same massive geological structure, separated only by a maritime border in the Persian Gulf. Together, they form the world’s largest natural gas field.

So, Iran and Qatar are essentially exploiting the same gas reservoir the same way two people would use straws to drink from the same bottle. The US president, Donald Trump, now appears to have retreated from his threats to blow up “the entirety” of the Iranian gas field – but this geological fact had always made his comments quite ridiculous.

While Qatar exports most of its production, Iran uses the bulk of its gas domestically (although some exports go via pipeline to Turkey and Iraq).

But the damage to the complex has been done, and it affects some 17% of the country’s LNG infrastructure. Repairing it will take a long time, precisely because of the complexity of LNG projects.

The plant must be warmed up slowly before repairs and cooled down slowly after. Rapid temperature changes can cause pipes to bend or even snap. And parts of the plant are bulky and hard to transport. The main heat exchangers can be more than 50 metres long, and compressors, turbines and liquefaction trains can easily weigh 5,000 metric tonnes. Storage tanks must be built of special alloys with double walls and customised insulation.

In other words, gas is very different to oil. Recent events have shown just how vulnerable the LNG supplies from the Gulf region are. They are going to affect Asia most, as about three-quarters of Qatar’s LNG ends up there – particularly China, India, Taiwan, South Korea and Pakistan, as well as others.

Most of the rest ends up in Europe – Italy, Belgium, Poland and a small amount to the UK (the UK imported only about 1% of its supply from Qatar last year). The majority of the UK’s imports come from its own UK production in the North Sea and imports from Norway and the US.

However, LNG is a part of the global energy market and the shortfall in production will result in higher prices globally. Gas will end up with the highest bidder, while some nations will probably go back to using coal. This may especially be the case with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and a few other Asian countries that are very sensitive to high fuel prices.

Some European countries may even see coal as a cheaper option. Following the events in the Gulf, this “spark spread” (the profit margin from gas-fired electricity generation) has fallen, narrowing the gap in Europe with the “dark spread” (profit from generating power using coal).

The benchmark for European gas prices, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, has more than doubled since mid-January. Coal prices have picked up due to higher demand, but not as much. Unlike oil, the LNG shortage has turned from a logistical problem – the closure of the strait of Hormuz – into a structural one. The damage to the Qatari production facility may take several years to repair. This means that gas prices – already high – are likely to remain elevated for some time.

Adi Imsirovic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why the damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure could push costs higher for years to come – https://theconversation.com/why-the-damage-to-qatars-gas-infrastructure-could-push-costs-higher-for-years-to-come-278943

March 23, 2026

Canada’s migratory caribou are under threat. Will we act before it’s too late?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Benjamin Larue, Faculty Affiliate in Wildlife Biology, University of Montana

Delegates are gathering in Campo Grande, Brazil, for the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) on the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals. The meeting aims to address growing threats to migratory animals — from birds and whales to large land mammals.

The outcome could matter for caribou — one of Canada’s most recognizable wildlife species, immortalized on the country’s 25-cent quarters. Canada has not ratified the convention, but COP15 still matters here: it sets global norms and shines an international spotlight on a crisis unfolding in Canada’s North.

Every year, migratory tundra caribou travel hundreds — sometimes thousands — of kilometres across the Arctic and subarctic. These journeys are the longest known terrestrial migrations on Earth.

a silver 25 cent coin featuring a caribou with antlers — One side of the Canadian 25-cent coin featuring a caribou.
(Royal Canadian Mint)

As large herds of caribou migrate between the boreal forest in winter and the tundra in summer, they move nutrients across vast landscapes and shape vegetation, soils and food webs.

Their migrations also sustain Indigenous cultures and ways of life across the Arctic. For Inuit in Kugluktuk, caribou are part of a relationship of respect and reciprocity that supports physical, cultural and spiritual well-being. Generations of lived experience on the land have produced an deep understanding of caribou.

But today, caribou migrations are in peril. Once numbering around 470,000 animals, the Bathurst caribou herd has collapsed by more than 99 per cent since the 1980s. Today, only about 3,600 remain.

Within a single human lifetime, one of the great migrations of the North has nearly disappeared, a decline witnessed first-hand by people in Kugluktuk. Other herds across the North American Arctic tell similar stories, with devastating effects on Indigenous communities.

Navigating the perils of a changing Arctic

Animals learned to migrate because it helps them survive. For caribou, travelling long distances to calving grounds offers major advantages. First, migration allows females to time giving birth with the brief burst of nutritious spring vegetation, when plants provide the protein levels needed for females to nurse growing calves.

Second, when tens of thousands of females gather to give birth within a short window of time, predators such as wolves and bears can only consume a small fraction of calves — a phenomenon ecologists call “predator swamping.”

But the ecological conditions that once made caribou migrations so effective are changing.

Arctic warming is altering vegetation growth in northern ecosystems. In many regions, plants growth is starting earlier in spring. Migratory animals like caribou may not always adjust their movements at the same pace, potentially creating mismatches between migrations and peak food availability.

Climate change may also be reshaping species interactions. Grizzly bears appear to be increasingly present in parts of the tundra where they were historically less common, potentially increasing predation during the calving season.

We recently conducted research into this trend, along with colleagues, using a large network of camera traps. We documented substantial overlap between grizzly bears and Bathurst caribou during calving.

If predators are increasingly present where calves are born and climate change affects the timing of resources available to mothers, migration may no longer be as advantageous.

Infrastructural barriers to migration

Migration depends on something deceptively simple: space. Caribou must be able to move freely across vast landscapes. Around the world, roads, fences and other human infrastructure have fragmented migration routes and limited the space available to animals.

The Arctic remains one of the last places where large-scale terrestrial migrations still unfold largely intact. But that distinction is increasingly under pressure.

Proposed infrastructure projects such as the Arctic Economic and Security Corridor in northern Canada and the Ambler Road Project in Alaska would cross hundreds of kilometres of key caribou migratory routes. For Indigenous communities, the stakes are high.

People from these communities have repeatedly raised concerns about the potential impacts of such projects. Their voices, and the land-based knowledge that informs them, must be central to planning and consent processes. Too often, consultation occurs only after major decisions have already been made and local voices are muted.

Where development proceeds, Indigenous Peoples must also be meaningful beneficiaries rather than communities left to bear the ecological and cultural costs of projects that threaten the wildlife they depend on.

Studies of caribou and other migratory ungulates show that roads and industrial activity can disrupt movements, reduce landscape connectivity and affect survival. These concerns have led some Indigenous organizations to oppose new road construction and resource development in caribou habitat, citing the long-term risks to herd viability. Together, Inuit and scientific knowledge contribute to wildlife co-management, and under Nunavut’s co-management system, Inuit are a strong voice for wildlife — especially caribou.

Protecting migrations in a changing world

Globally, migratory species are declining at alarming rates. A recent United Nations report found that nearly half of migratory species are experiencing population declines.

This week, governments from around the world are in Brazil for the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals. As a non-party to the convention, Canada is not bound by its outcomes — but the moral and diplomatic pressure to act is no less real.

The tools exist: transboundary protections, migratory corridor designations and co-ordinated limits on industrial development in critical habitat. What’s lacking is the political will to apply them at the scale the crisis demands.

For these measures to succeed for caribou, they must also incorporate Indigenous land rights alongside practical mitigation measures — such as seasonal traffic restrictions — that allow caribou to move freely across their migration routes.

Protecting caribou migrations also requires confronting the broader climate crisis driving Arctic change. The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet, and the phenological mismatches and shifting species ranges that threaten caribou will only intensify as greenhouse gas emissions rise. That means saving caribou migrations ultimately demands a rapid and genuine reduction in our collective carbon footprint.

As delegates gather in Brazil, the fate of Arctic caribou migrations should serve as both a warning and a test. Caribou migrations are among the great natural wonders of our planet. Whether future generations will still witness them depends on decisions being made right now — and on whether those decisions finally centre the peoples who live with, and for, the caribou.

Benjamin Larue receives funding from the Liber Ero Postdoctoral Fellowship, the World Wildlife Fund and the National Geographic Society.

Allen Niptanatiak and Amanda Dumond do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Canada’s migratory caribou are under threat. Will we act before it’s too late? – https://theconversation.com/canadas-migratory-caribou-are-under-threat-will-we-act-before-its-too-late-277591

March 23, 2026

Le RN s’implante localement, mais échoue dans les métropoles. Quelles leçons pour 2027 ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Frédéric Sawicki, professeur de science politique, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

Quel est le bilan des municipales 2026 ? Les deux partis en dynamique, le RN et LFI, sont-ils renforcés en vue des élections présidentielles de l’an prochain ? Entretien avec le politiste Frédéric Sawicki.

The Conversation : quel est le bilan des municipales 2026 ?

Frédéric Sawicki : Commençons par rappeler que dans 9 communes sur 10, les élections ont été jouées dès le premier tour. Les seconds tours ont surtout concerné la France urbaine. Dans une ville sur deux au moins, trois listes étaient en compétition, confirmant la tripolarisation de notre champ politique. Au total, la stabilité politique domine car à la différence de 2008 ou 2014, ces élections municipales n’ont pas été l’occasion de sanctionner une majorité ou un gouvernement, faute de présence massive de listes se réclamant de la « majorité présidentielle ».

En conséquence les rares bascules d’un camp vers l’autre s’expliquent souvent par des considérations locales. Si le PS gagne Saint-Étienne, ça n’est pas sans lien avec les affaires qui ont affecté le maire sortant (mis en cause pour avoir utilisé une vidéo pour exercer un chantage sur son adjoint). Inversement si à Brest, le PS perd, l’effet d’usure du maire sortant, élu depuis 2001, n’y est sans doute pas pour rien. On pourrait multiplier les exemples.

On constate également un certain nombre de constantes sociologiques. Les très grandes métropoles votent toujours massivement à gauche. Dans les villes d’économie touristique, avec une forte présence de professions indépendantes, des petits patrons, de commerçants, des populations liées au monde militaire (par exemple à Toulon), ou des retraités aisés (Nice, Menton ou Cagnes-sur-Mer), le vote est fortement orienté à droite ou désormais à l’extrême droite.

Au total, on constate finalement autant de cas de bascules de la droite vers la gauche ou inversement, que des déplacements à l’intérieur de chaque camp : des villes socialistes ou communistes deviennent LFI (Saint-Denis, Vénissieux), des villes écologistes basculent vers le centre gauche (Strasbourg ou Poitiers). De l’autre côté du spectre, certaines villes de droite ou du centre droit passent à l’extrême droite ou à ses alliés, par exemple à Nice avec Eric Ciotti.

Les quelques bascules de la gauche vers la droite sont rares et elles s’équilibrent par les bascules dans l’autre sens. Sur les municipalités de plus de 50 000 habitants, la gauche et les écologistes perdent Bordeaux, Clermont-Ferrand, Brest, Avignon, Besançon, Poitiers, Cherbourg, mais ils gagnent Saint-Étienne, Nîmes, Amiens, Roubaix, Aubervilliers et Pau.

L’un des résultats notables est l’implantation locale du RN…

Frédéric Sawicki : L’un des phénomènes nouveaux est le fort renforcement de l’ancrage municipal du Rassemblement national. En 2020, le RN ne l’a emporté que dans 17 villes, dont sept de plus de 20 000 habitant·e·s. Cette fois-ci, il en gagne 60. Certes, il y a des échecs importants à Toulon ou Nîmes, mais il y a la conquête de nombreuses villes moyennes comme Carpentras, La Seyne-sur-Mer, La Flèche, Vierzon, Montargis, Liévin… La présence du RN est surtout localisée dans l’ancien bassin minier du Pas-de-Calais, sur la Côte d’Azur, mais aussi en Occitanie (Agde, Castres, Carcassonne, Montauban).

Par ailleurs, le RN ancre sa présence dans les villes qu’il avait conquises en 2014 puis en 2020, c’est essentiel pour renforcer sa crédibilité en vue des présidentielles de 2027.

LFI est-il également renforcé par ces élections municipales ?

Frédéric Sawicki : La percée de LFI est réelle puisque plusieurs villes de plus de 30 000 habitants sont gagnées – Saint-Denis, Roubaix, Saint-Paul et Le Tampon (à La Réunion), Vénissieux, Vaux-en-Velin, La Courneuve, Creil. Ce n’est pas rien quand l’on part de zéro. Pour autant, il faut relativiser cette percée.

Les insoumis ont échoué dans les situations où ils avaient pris la tête de la gauche (à Toulouse ou à Limoges). Le parti de Jean-Luc Mélenchon n’a pas été en capacité de décrocher des municipalités tenues par la droite, à l’exception de Roubaix.

Par ailleurs, LFI a voulu s’imposer comme un partenaire incontournable, avec la menace de faire chuter le PS en cas de refus d’alliance. Or, lorsque les socialistes et alliés ont refusé la fusion, ils ont rarement été battus. LFI n’a donc pas réussi à démontrer sa capacité de nuisance – le cas de Paris étant emblématique, mais on peut également citer Rennes ou Montpellier.

Enfin, on remarque que dans le cadre d’alliances, notamment avec les écologistes, des villes ont été perdues (Strasbourg, Poitiers, Besançon..). Lorsque les alliances ont permis de gagner (Grenoble, Lyon, Tours), les Insoumis ne seront pas représentés au sein des exécutifs car les fusions étaient uniquement « techniques ». Les élus LFI resteront donc cantonnés à un rôle d’opposant, ce qui ne permet pas au parti de démontrer une capacité à gouverner. C’est un vrai problème pour accéder au pouvoir suprême en 2027 que d’apparaître comme un parti purement protestataire.

On remarque que le centre et la droite ont renforcé leur alliance lors de ces municipales…

Frédéric Sawicki : Il y a eu énormément de listes où le centre droit, Horizons, MoDem et Renaissance, se sont alliés avec des candidats de droite, UDI ou LR, dès le premier tour. Au deuxième tour, on a assisté à de nombreuses fusions. Cette élection municipale s’inscrit donc dans la continuité de l’alliance parlementaire entre le bloc central et la droite depuis 2022 et surtout depuis 2024 et préfigure ce qui pourrait se passer à la présidentielle. Après le second tour, on a entendu des appels pour que LR, Horizons et les macronistes se dotent d’un dispositif et d’un candidat communs. Avec sa victoire au Havre, Edouard Philippe a prononcé un discours visant à fédérer ces forces – même si la bataille reste très ouverte.

Il a beaucoup été question de la « guerre des gauches », avec une fracture nette entre une partie des socialistes et les insoumis… Quels sont les enjeux pour 2027 ?

Frédéric Sawicki : La fracture entre ceux qui refusent toute alliance avec LFI et les autres s’est renforcée avec ces municipales. Mais ce que l’on constate, c’est que le centre autonome n’existe plus guère, le bloc central étant clairement allié avec la droite désormais. Quelle est donc la stratégie d’alliance de ceux qui, comme Raphaël Glucksmann ou François Hollande, prônent un rapprochement avec les centristes ? Si le Parti socialiste sort plutôt renforcé de cette élection, c’est parce qu’il a su s’allier, dès le premier tour, avec les écologistes, les communistes, Place publique ou d’anciens insoumis. La seule voie qui semble se dessiner pour la gauche, c’est de travailler sur ce socle en la renforçant – sans LFI – tout en montrant aux électeurs insoumis qu’ils ne sont pas des inaudibles et que leurs aspirations sont entendues.

Certains observateurs redoutaient une « fusion » entre la droite et l’extrême droite. Elle n’a pas eu lieu au niveau des appareils. En revanche, les électeurs de la droite et de l’extrême droite se sont, semble-t-il, bien rapprochés…

Frédéric Sawicki : Les initiatives locales de rapprochement entre le RN et des candidats de la droite ont immédiatement été condamnées par LR. Le fait que Bruno Retailleau n’ait pas appelé à voter Christian Estrosi contre Eric Ciotti à Nice a provoqué l’indignation. En revanche, le choix des électeurs a montré une grande porosité entre droite et extrême droite. La présence de candidats insoumis faisant figure de repoussoir, des électeurs RN ont voté LR pour faire barrage à la gauche, et des électeurs LR ont voté RN pour les mêmes raisons. C’est clair à Brest, à Clermont-Ferrand, à Limoges, Besançon, Marseille, où l’électorat de Martine Vassal (LR) a été divisé par deux entre le premier et le second tour, au profit de Franck Allisio (RN).

Finalement, qui sort vainqueur de ces municipales ? Le RN a-t-il franchi une étape de plus pour un succès en 2027 ?

Frédéric Sawicki : Le RN bénéficie d’une dynamique positive, le renforcement de son implantation locale est une étape importante en vue des sénatoriales mais aussi des élections présidentielles et législatives. Pour autant, il reste à la porte des très grandes villes, ce qui est une faiblesse majeure dans la perspective de sa marche vers l’Élysée. Comment un parti pourrait-il gagner le pouvoir national en étant absent des métropoles où se concentre l’essentiel de l’activité intellectuelle et économique de la nation ? Le RN représente autour de 30 % des électeurs : il peut gagner en 2027 face à un Jean-Luc Mélenchon isolé, ou si la gauche (hors LFI) et la droite restent divisées. Le succès du RN en 2027 n’a donc rien d’inéluctable à condition que la gauche ou la droite rassemblent. C’est ce que François Mitterrand avait réussi à faire en 1981 et en 1988. C’est ce que Jacques Chirac avait fait en 1995, comme Nicolas Sarkozy en 2007. C’est désormais aux forces politiques de jouer… avec les bonnes cartes.

Propos recueillis par David Bornstein

Frédéric Sawicki ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Le RN s’implante localement, mais échoue dans les métropoles. Quelles leçons pour 2027 ? – https://theconversation.com/le-rn-simplante-localement-mais-echoue-dans-les-metropoles-quelles-lecons-pour-2027-279035