Category: The Conversation – Global Perspectives

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Bonnie Yushih Liao, Assistant Professor of Diplomacy & International Relations, Tamkang University

The United States and Israeli strikes on Iran have become increasingly concerning for the world due to the risks of further escalation and the impact on energy markets.

In Taiwan, however, the focus has shifted in a different direction.

Rather than treating the war as geographically distant, Taiwanese political leaders and analysts are viewing it as a real-time indicator of how the United States operates under strategic pressure.

The key question is less about whether the United States would act if a conflict with China were to break out in the Indo-Pacific region, and more about how it would manage competing pressures if multiple crises unfolded at once.

A test of limits, not intentions

There is growing recognition in Taiwan that US resources are not unlimited.

The Middle East war has caused energy prices to fluctuate and stoked fears of rising inflation in the United States, demonstrating the domestic costs of military operations.

US President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have also taken a hit, with some in his own party now questioning his rationale for going to war.

Some reports have indicated US supplies of interceptor missiles are running low. The US military has, for example, had to move some THAAD missile interceptors from South Korea to the Middle East. The US has also struggled to defend against Iran’s use of asymmetrical fighting tactics.

This has direct implications for the deterrence Washington has long maintained in the Indo-Pacific. This deterrence depends not only on US war-fighting capability, but on the expectation this capability will remain intact under strain.

Conflicts elsewhere may not weaken the US resolve to intervene if China were to invade or pressure Taiwan in some fashion. But they can drain American resources and influence where these items are prioritised.

Shifting thresholds for the use of force

The US has also framed its strikes on Iran as a “preventive” action aimed at mitigating a future threat rather than responding to an imminent attack. This raises broader questions about the changing threshold for the use of force in the Indo-Pacific.

For Taiwan, this is not an abstract notion. If the threshold for military action is lowered from imminent threat to potential risk, the strategic environment becomes less predictable in the Indo-Pacific.

This broadens the range of circumstances under which force by the United States may be justified.

The speed with which the Trump administration has acted in Iran has also increased uncertainty for regional partners like Japan and South Korea in assessing when and how the United States would act against China.

The US’ NATO partners weren’t told about the Iran strikes before they happened. This could make Japan and South Korea similarly worried about a lack of communication on potential US actions over Taiwan.

Wars rarely follow anticipated pathways

The Iran war has also raised broader questions about how the United States adapts as crises evolve.

Much of the discussion around Taiwan has traditionally centred on the possibility of a large-scale Chinese invasion. However, recent developments suggest escalation may be less linear than this.

Rather than following a single, predictable pathway, conflicts can develop through a sequence of smaller decisions, the ambiguity over signals sent by an adversary, or rapidly changing political conditions.

This has contributed to a shift in strategic discussion in Taiwan. Recent defence policy debates and security forums have increasingly examined scenarios in which China pressured Taiwan with grey-zone tactics, blockades and incremental escalatory moves, rather than focusing solely on full-scale invasion.

As a result, attention is shifting to how such pressure might build over time – through cyber operations, maritime restrictions or limited military actions – and possibly spiral out of control.

The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has been watched closely in Taiwan as an example of how disruption of a strategic chokepoint can quickly impact the world. This raises questions about whether similar dynamics could emerge in the Taiwan Strait, and how prepared external actors – including the US – would be to respond.

The US has also been unable to prevent the Iran war from spilling over into the Persian Gulf states. This raises questions about whether a war over Taiwan could be contained or produce wider regional effects.

The risk of misinterpretation

For Taiwan, the most immediate challenge comes from how China interprets US actions in Iran. If Beijing concludes that diminishing military resources or domestic pressures would limit the US’ ability to wage a sustained conflict in the Indo-Pacific, it may reassess the risks of applying coercive pressure on Taiwan.

This does not imply immediate conflict is likely over Taiwan. However, it increases the likelihood that China would try to pressure or coerce Taiwan just below the threshold of full-scale war.

History suggests that escalation is often shaped by how situations are interpreted by adversaries, rather than by clear shifts in power. When states believe conditions are more favourable than they actually are, the risk of misjudgement increases.

For Taiwan, the challenge is therefore not only to assess developments in the Middle East, but to ensure that its own position is not misunderstood. This involves:

• maintaining credible defensive capabilities
• reinforcing internal cohesion against possible threats
• signalling clearly that any attempt at coercion would face robust resistance.

Deterrence depends not only on what a country can do, but what others believe it will do — and whether those beliefs discourage risk-taking.

Bonnie Yushih Liao does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How Taiwan is viewing the Iran war – and what it reveals about US credibility – https://theconversation.com/how-taiwan-is-viewing-the-iran-war-and-what-it-reveals-about-us-credibility-279102

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Flavio Macau, Associate Dean – School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University

If you’d never heard of the Strait of Hormuz before, you probably have by now. Iran’s effective closure of the waterway, which usually carries about 20% of the world’s oil and gas, has put severe pressure on the global economy.

Now, some analysts are warning a new flashpoint could emerge: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

That’s because on March 28, the Houthis, a military group that controls large parts of northern Yemen and is aligned with Iran, entered the war, launching missiles towards Israel for the first time since the war with Iran began.

Yemen is situated on one side of the strait, and the Houthis have previously attacked shipping in the Red Sea, causing major disruption in late 2023 and 2024.

Bloomberg now reports Iran has approached the Houthis to prepare for a similar campaign.

Here’s why all eyes will be back on the Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea, and what disruption of a second major chokepoint could mean for the world economy.

What is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is about 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. It is situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula to the northeast and Eritrea and Djibouti in Africa on the west.

Its name literally means “Gate of Tears” in Arabic, after its famously treacherous sailing conditions.

It has become so important because, along with the Suez Canal in Egypt, it allows ships to transit directly between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean by passing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Before the Suez Canal’s opening in the 19th century, ships had to travel all the way around the southern tip of Africa to join these two points.

An oil tanker leaving Saudi Arabia to go to the Netherlands, for example, only has to travel 12,000 kilometres if it goes via the Red Sea, compared with more than 20,000 kilometres going south around Africa.

As you’d expect, that’s much faster too. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), a trip between the Arabian Sea and the Netherlands that takes 34 days the long way around is shortened to just 19 days.

What passes through it?

In normal times, as much as 14% of global maritime trade goes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Detailed data on what passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is somewhat limited. But fossil fuels are a major component.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in 2025 about 4.2 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids crossed the Bab al-Mandeb Strait per day. That’s about 5% of global production.

Given most ships use the Suez Canal as well, official data from the Suez Canal Authority allow us to paint a detailed picture of Red Sea shipping.

In the final quarter of 2025, about 40% of the 3,426 ships passing through the Suez Canal transported fossil fuels: (1,330 oil tankers, 88 liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships).

Bulk and general cargo made up another 40% (1,339 ships), typically transporting agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat and soybeans, and also coal and iron ore. Container ships made about 13% of the traffic (459 ships).

Notably, total traffic through the Red Sea has declined considerably since Houthi attacks on shipping in late 2023 and 2024, even though these attacks have largely stopped.

Can the strait be closed?

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait can’t be “closed” entirely. Its narrowest point is still a considerably wide waterway. And unlike the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is not a “cul-de-sac”, where the passage is closed at one end with only one way out. Ships can still exit to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.

That’s little comfort for those bound for Asia, which would then have to round Africa to do so, adding weeks to the journey.

Notably, Saudi Arabia had already built a “Plan B” to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, called the East-West pipeline. This pipeline connects Abqaiq in the north with Yanbu on the Red Sea, and had already begun pumping oil at almost full capacity in response to the conflict.

But oil bound for Asia from this new exit point still has to pass through Bab el-Mandeb to avoid the long way around, meaning it could be disrupted.

We’ve been here before

To get a sense of how the Houthis could disrupt shipping again, we can look to the most recent Red Sea crisis.

According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), 67 incidents were recorded between November 2023 and September 2024. Some ships only suffered minor equipment damage. But others faced severe fires, flooding and structural damage after being hit by missiles or drones.

However, there have been relatively few attacks since 2024. And the strait was never totally “closed” per se: some ships continued to pass through throughout the crisis.

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The mere threat of attacks

These same tactics would probably apply today. But for shipping companies, the mere threat of attacks may be enough to slow or restrict shipping. There are significant risks to civilian crew, who face a threat to life.

Adding to this, insurance costs could become prohibitive enough to close the route in practical terms. Back in 2024, insurance costs were about 0.6% of the value of the cargo on a ship. After the Red Sea crisis, this rose as high as 2%.

The effective closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb at the same time would be severely disruptive to global supply chains and the global economy.

Flavio Macau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why a second global shipping chokepoint could soon live up to its name as the ‘Gate of Tears’ – https://theconversation.com/why-a-second-global-shipping-chokepoint-could-soon-live-up-to-its-name-as-the-gate-of-tears-279548

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity Australia

The apocalyptic red skies in Western Australia have generated considerable international media attention. Crimson dust whipped up by the strong outer winds of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle created this unusual phenomenon.

Spectacular weather events like this are not common in northwest Australia. They occur under very specific environmental conditions. Most of the tropical cyclones hitting this arid region don’t cause red skies. Mega dust storms which do change the colour of the sky often take place during prolonged droughts. Perhaps the most memorable storm traversed over Melbourne on 8 February 1983, turning the sky red-brown and later pitch black.

So what caused Cyclone Narelle’s dust storm and why was the sky so vividly red? Four factors came together to create these conditions: a very dry and exposed landscape with red soils, a lack of preceding rain, very strong winds ahead of the rain bands from the cyclone, and a particular wind direction.

Why was the dust storm so spectacular?

Australia’s northwest is one of just a few places in the world where tropical cyclones affect an otherwise arid desert climate. Other locations include the Arabian Peninsula and semi-arid parts of India and Pakistan. These dry regions have very little natural vegetation to protect fragile soils from cyclonic winds. In the northwest of WA, the iron-rich soils which attract many big mining companies also give the region its exceptional red appearance.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, in the six weeks prior to Cyclone Narelle, the greater northwest region had experienced 10-50 mm of rainfall and the barren landscape was very dry. This was a crucial factor behind the size and magnitude of the red-tinged dust storm.

In the Southern Hemisphere, tropical cyclones rotate in a clockwise direction due to the “Coriolis Force”, which applies movement on rotating objects. This explains how the dust storm developed. Strong winds to the south of the cyclone’s eye were coming from the northeast to southeast direction, and hence off the dry landscape.

After tracking in a southerly direction, close to the North West Cape of WA, Narelle eventually crossed the coast near Coral Bay and headed inland, where it weakened.

Narelle’s large area of gale-force winds extended 200-260 kilometres from the centre. These very strong winds in the southwest area of the cyclone blew across the dry Pilbara landscape, picking up fine red sediments ahead of the bands of rain and transporting them westwards. These blood-red dust storms hit coastal towns in the Gasgoyne and Pilbara regions.

The large, flat terrain of the Pilbara would also have created a long wind “fetch” (the distance the wind blows over open terrain). This would have picked up greater numbers of dust particles.

As the cyclone moved through, humidity increased rapidly, followed by dense cloud and finally heavy rain. This is why the apocalyptic dust was short lived – it was washed out of the atmosphere and back to earth.

Why was the sky so red?

The Pilbara’s deep red soils are rich in iron oxides. These soils form the basis of the multi-billion dollar iron ore mining industry.

Understanding the physics of the atmosphere is important. Airborne dust particles scatter shorter wavelengths (blue and green light) more effectively. Longer wavelengths (red and orange light) pass through or dominate what reaches your eyes. The red soil particles made the light an even deeper shade of red. Hence, the sky appeared deep orange red, or even blood coloured.

Due to the right mix of environmental conditions, the Narelle dust storm involved a very high dust concentration, thick enough to significantly filter and tint all incoming sunlight. This created the Mars-like or “apocalyptic” appearance. Cyclone Narelle also approached the North West Cape in the early morning, when sunlight has to travel through more atmosphere. This meant more scattering occurred and made the red tones even stronger.

Mega dust storms are a regular feature during prolonged droughts in central, southern and eastern Australia. A striking example was the “Red Dawn” dust storm in Sydney on 23 September 2009. Residents woke to an eerie red dawn due to a huge dust cloud.

Huge dust storms like this are usually produced by strong cold fronts and severe thunderstorms that force fine sediment particles up into the atmosphere. These particles are typically moved towards the east, even making their way into the upper levels of the troposphere. Occasionally the dust is deposited as far away as the Southern Alps of Aotearoa/New Zealand.

Spectacular weather events such as this stand out on the global stage. A rare combination of the Pilbara’s exceptionally red soils, cyclonic winds from the right direction and perfect pre-rain timing allowed atmospheric dust to build to very high concentrations. Certainly a feast for the eyes and record books.

Steve Turton has previously received funding from the Australian and Queensland Governments.

– ref. What caused the blood red skies in Western Australia? A weather expert explains – https://theconversation.com/what-caused-the-blood-red-skies-in-western-australia-a-weather-expert-explains-279557

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Shannon Bosch, Associate Professor (Law), Edith Cowan University

Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, this week passed legislation that would vastly expand capital punishment in Israel and in the occupied Palestinian territories.

The changes, made via an amendment to Israel’s penal law, allow for executions without proper appeal, pardons or meaningful judicial discretion.

According to media reports, 62 of 120 Knesset members voted in favour of the bill on Monday, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and 48 voted against. The remainder absented themselves from the vote or abstained.

UN experts and Amnesty International have warned these new death sentencing rules would apply almost exclusively to Palestinians.

It would, they argue, entrench discrimination already identified by the International Court of Justice as amounting to apartheid. UN experts said of the bill:

Since Israeli military trials of civilians typically do not meet fair trial standards under international human rights law and humanitarian law, any resulting death sentence would further violate the right to life […] Denial of a fair trial is also a war crime.

This development is a significant change for Israel, which has not executed anyone for more than 60 years. It reverses decades of global movement towards abolition, while normalising executions in an occupied territory.

Death penalty as the default

These changes were made via legislation brought by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and his far-right Otzma Yehudit party.

The Penal Bill (Amendment ― Death Penalty for Terrorists) amends both Israeli civil law (applicable to Israeli settlers) and Israeli military law (applicable to Palestinians) in the occupied West Bank.

The law states, according to a Deutsche Welle media report:

Palestinians in the occupied West Bank convicted of terrorism in military courts will face a mandatory death sentence or, in the wording of the bill “his sentence shall be death, and this penalty only.” Only if the court determines that there are “special reasons” can it then commute the death sentence to life in prison.

Under this change:

• prosecutors do not need to request the death penalty
• the defence minister may submit an opinion to the judicial panel of three military officials who only need a simple majority to impose the death penalty
• judges need to record exceptional reasons for imposing a life sentence over the death penalty
• avenues for appeal would be tightly restricted
• there would be no possibility of a pardon
• people sentenced to death would be detained in isolated facilities that would have restricted visitor access, with legal counsel only by video link
• executions (by hanging) would take place within 90 days of the final judgement.

Another yet-to-be-passed bill that may still be brought before the Knesset – the Prosecution of Participants in the October 7 Massacre Events Bill – would also see more death sentences handed down.

It establishes ad hoc military tribunals with retrospective jurisdiction to prosecute those accused of participating in the October 7 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel.

These tribunals would:

• consist of a retired district court judge and two officers qualified to serve as judges
• be authorised to depart from ordinary rules around evidence and procedure
• be able to impose the death penalty via a simple majority, without prosecutors requesting it.

Appeals and clemency mechanisms would again be extremely limited.

Taken together, the two amendments significantly expand the scope of capital punishment in Israel. They also remove many procedural safeguards.

Supporters argue capital punishment could deter future attacks and preclude hostage-taking for prisoner exchanges.

Yet, historically, Israel’s intelligence services have opposed death sentences. They have argued it may encourage armed groups to kidnap Israelis as bargaining chips to prevent executions.

International humanitarian law

Critics have argued the new changes place Israel in breach of international humanitarian law and international human rights law.

As critics point out, Israel’s new death penalty rules limit access to legal counsel. They also:

• restrict appeals
• allows trials before ad hoc military tribunals for new capital offences
• mandate executions be carried out within 90 days.

This all runs counter to international humanitarian law.

Significant legal concerns are raised by Israel enforcing new capital offences in the occupied territory after the International Court of Justice concluded Israel’s occupation violates international law and must cease.

These concerns are compounded by longstanding criticisms of Israeli military courts in the occupied West Bank, where conviction rates for Palestinian defendants reportedly exceed 99%.

International human rights law

Under international human rights law people should be guaranteed equality before the law and protected from discrimination.

But the changes passed by the Knesset this week subject Palestinians to death sentences as the default, while Israeli citizens accused of killing Palestinians would appear before civil courts. Here, capital punishment would be discretionary and far more limited. This entrenches a discriminatory system.

Critics argue this amounts to collective punishment against Palestinians, which is prohibited under the Geneva Convention.

The European Union has warned that executions through hanging would also violate the absolute prohibition on cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment.

Taken together, the two new amendments normalise state-sanctioned executions and violate Israel’s obligations under international law.

Shannon Bosch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New Israeli law could mean death penalty by default for Palestinians convicted of deadly attacks – https://theconversation.com/new-israeli-law-could-mean-death-penalty-by-default-for-palestinians-convicted-of-deadly-attacks-279458

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Bernard Stewart, Professor, Paediatrics and Child Health, UNSW Sydney

As early as the 1880s, there was evidence that smoking tobacco damaged your lungs. But it took almost 100 years to definitively show that smoking causes lung cancer.

So, what about vapes?

Until now, most research that has looked at the cancer risk for people using vapes, also known as electronic or e-cigarettes, has mainly focused on their role as a gateway to smoking tobacco. This is because we know people who vape are more likely than non-smokers to take up smoking.

But whether they cause cancer by themselves has been unclear. There are still no long-term studies. But now a comprehensive review of the evidence I conducted with colleagues, published today, has found vaping likely causes oral and lung cancers.

What we looked at and what we found

Given there is no long-term research on whether vaping directly causes cancer, we had to look for effects on the body that we know are linked to cancer.

We identified all peer-reviewed research published between 2017 and mid-2025 that looked at health impacts of vapes considered indicative of potential cancer causation.

The aerosol that vapers inhale contains a complex range of chemicals, including nicotine and its byproducts, and vapourised metals. This aerosol demonstrates almost all of the ten “key characteristics of carcinogens” identified by the World Health Organization.

Blood and urine analyses from vapers confirmed they had absorbed chemicals from e-cigarette chemicals that we know are linked to cancer. These studies revealed nicotine and its breakdown products present in their bodies, including carcinogenic (cancer-causing) metals from the heating element and organic compounds from vapourising e-liquids.

There is no doubt vaping alters tissues in the mouth and lungs. We found evidence of mutations in DNA from the mouth and lungs in those who vaped, which is further evidence of carcinogen exposure.

There was also evidence of changes to cancer biomarkers in the lung and mouth tissue of vapers. Cancer biomarkers are changes in cell or molecular structure that precede a tumour developing. Some of these can be observed under a microscope, such as inflammation, while others such as oxidative stress are detected by molecular analysis.

We also examined experiments on mice which found the aerosols in vapes caused lung cancer, as well as cases reported by dentists who thought that oral cancers in certain individual patients (who didn’t smoke) were caused by them vaping.

Our review did also examine studies that had addressed the possibility vaping may cause cancer. However none of these covered the wide range of evidence we had assessed.

What this means

The evidence shows nicotine-based vapes are likely to cause oral and lung cancer. We just don’t yet know how many cases it will cause.

But in the evidence we looked at, there was rising concern, and a significant shift in the conclusions that had been drawn.

Between 2017 and 2019, researchers tended to say there wasn’t enough evidence to conclude that vapes cause cancer. This included papers that typically looked at cancer biomarkers and carcinogenic mechanisms.

By 2024 and 2025, almost without exception, authors were expressing concern. They noted that the idea vaping has a lower cancer risk than smoking could no longer be supported, given the evidence we now have.

Our study, which looks at cancer caused by vapes in their own right, marks a new approach to what we know about the link between cancer and vaping.

What we still don’t know

We still don’t have direct evidence that there are more cancer cases than expected among people who vape.

The fact it took 100 years to demonstrate that smoking causes cancer indicates it will take decades to make a similar case for vaping. And it will be challenging, because definitive proof will depend on a population of people who only vape, not people who smoke and vape.

So we need large and carefully planned studies, which will then allow us to monitor and detect cancer early, and precisely determine if it is caused by – or worsened by – vaping. Lives can be saved by these means, but only if this research is funded and started now.

Bernard Stewart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Strongest evidence yet that vaping likely causes cancer – https://theconversation.com/strongest-evidence-yet-that-vaping-likely-causes-cancer-279550

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Paul S.C.Taçon, Chair in Rock Art Research and Director of the Place, Evolution and Rock Art Heritage Unit (PERAHU), Griffith University

Extinct animals have long fascinated people around the world – from dinosaurs, to giant kangaroos, to enormous flightless birds and almost unimaginable sea creatures.

But one of the most intriguing is the Tasmanian tiger, also known as the thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus).

These large dog-like animals with stripes on their backs once roamed throughout the Australian mainland. But when Europeans colonisers arrived, thylacines were only found in Tasmania, hence the name Tasmanian tiger.

Our team of researchers has been documenting depictions of thylacines and other creatures at rock art sites in Arnhem Land, Northern Territory, for decades.

Today, we publish new research on rock art in north-west Arnhem Land, including 14 rock paintings of thylacines and two of Tasmanian devils. A few of these paintings were previously known but not described, while others were identified by our team over the past three years.

Besides rock art, we also examined recent paintings on bark, paper and canvas – as well as information from Aboriginal elders. Our findings emphasise how thylacines are still important to Arnhem Land Aboriginal communities today.

Memories of a curious creature

Scientists studying fossil remains suggest the thylacine became extinct on the Australian mainland about 3,000 years ago. The Tasmanian devil disappeared from the continent about the same time. Dingoes, humans and ancient climate change have been implicated in their demise.

The last known thylacine in Tasmania died in Hobart’s Beaumaris Zoo in 1936, but reports of tiger sightings in rugged, remote parts continued. Recent research suggests the thylacine may have persisted in Tasmania until the 1980s.

In the mid-1800s, Aboriginal people in Tasmania told settlers many things about thylacines, including that they had a powerful swimming ability, much like domestic dogs.

In the 1900s, rock paintings and engravings of thylacines were recorded at various locations on mainland Australia, especially in the north of the continent. Arnhem Land is particularly rich in images of this curious creature.

Paintings in red, white and yellow

Our research focuses on rock paintings from Awunbarna (Mount Borradaile) and Injalak Hill (near Gunbalanya), east of the East Alligator River that separates Arnhem Land from Kakadu National Park.

Since 2018, we have been working with local Aboriginal community members to record hundreds of rock art sites in each location – some of which include thylacine paintings.

North-west Arnhem Land is well known for its rich galleries of rock paintings. These have been made over at least the past 15,000 years and feature unique styles and subject matter. Our new findings add to the region’s cultural and scientific importance.

The thylacine and devil paintings we examined were made in various Aboriginal art styles. They were usually made with red and sometimes yellow ochre in various styles. The oldest were made about 15,000 years ago, while others were made at various times since.

Two of the paintings were made using white pipe clay (kaolin) with red ochre.

One red and yellow thylacine painting had fine white cross-hatching added to its body within the past few hundred years.

The white pigment does not last long and easily flakes off. It is coarse and sits on the rock surface rather than penetrating and staining the way red ochre does. Most paintings with white are less than 1,000 years old.

This suggests some depictions of the two extinct species are more recent than we might have expected.

Rock art depictions of thylacines are much more numerous and widespread across mainland Australia than Tasmanian devils. Including our new findings, only 25 Tasmanian devil images have been documented – versus more than 160 thylacine depictions.

Thylacines may have survived much longer in pockets of northern Australia than Tasmanian devils, but were likely also more culturally important.

At three rock art sites we recorded pairs of thylacines. Some Aboriginal elders we worked with had stories about Ngalyod (Rainbow Serpents) having two thylacines as pets that would swim in rock pools where Ngalyod resided.

The tails of the thylacines are shown in a few different positions – and some thylacines are depicted with teeth.

These variations don’t seem to be linked to the style or age of the work. It’s more likely they relate to different ways paintings were used to pass on information about the animal.

Stories passed down through generations

Contemporary artists in western Arnhem Land have long been inspired by these paintings and related stories. Today, they continue to portray the thylacine across various forms of media. They also have a name for thylacines: Djankerrk.

The thylacine lives on in western Arnhem Land, not as a living animal or a ghost from the past, but as a creature that still has present day relevance. Our new research, conducted in collaboration with community members, contributes towards our understanding of what makes the thylacine so meaningful.

Paul S.C.Taçon receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Andrea Jalandoni receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Sally K. May receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Joey Nganjmirra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NT rock art thousands of years old sheds new light on the mysterious Tasmanian tiger – https://theconversation.com/nt-rock-art-thousands-of-years-old-sheds-new-light-on-the-mysterious-tasmanian-tiger-278670

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Flavie Waters, Research Professor, School of Psychological Science, The University of Western Australia

Have you ever been drifting off to sleep when suddenly you hear what sounds like a gunshot, a door slamming, or an explosion inside your head? You jolt awake, heart pounding, sit upright in bed, but the room is silent.

Nothing has happened – but it felt very real.

This experience has a dramatic name: exploding head syndrome.

Despite the alarming name, it’s not dangerous, not painful, and not a sign something is wrong with the brain.

What is it?

Exploding head syndrome is a type of sleep disorder known as a parasomnia.

Parasomnias are unusual experiences that occur while sleeping or during transitions between sleep and wakefulness.

In exploding head syndrome, a person “hears” a sudden noise that seem to originate from deep inside the head. It’s a sensory perception generated by the brain rather than an external sound.

It typically occurs when drifting in or out of sleep, most commonly when a person is drowsy and about to fall asleep.

People commonly describe a sudden bang or loud metallic noise, gunshots, an explosion, crashing waves, buzzing electricity, a door slamming, or fireworks.

Exploding head syndrome can be intensely frightening. The loud noise may be accompanied by other sensations, including a brief stab of pain in the head (though it’s normally painless), flashes of light, out-of-body sensations, or the sensation of electricity coursing through the body.

The episode only lasts for a split second or a few seconds, and typically disappears completely once the person wakes up. Some people experience only a single episode, while others may have occasional episodes or brief clusters before the condition settles.

Because the experience is so sudden and unusual, many fear they’ve had a stroke or seizure, or that something catastrophic has happened. Others interpret it as a supernatural or ominous event.

The distress is caused not by pain, but by confusion and the body’s alarm response. The brain is partially awake, disoriented, and briefly activates the fight-or-flight system.

What causes it?

We don’t know the exact cause, but researchers have proposed several theories.

Because episodes occur during the transition into and out of sleep, they may be related to the same processes that produce what are known as hypnagogic hallucinations (vivid sensory experiences you can get while falling asleep).

As we fall asleep, different parts of the brain gradually switch off in a coordinated sequence.

In exploding head syndrome, that process may be linked to the shutting down of neural systems that inhibit auditory sensory processing. Your brain may end up interpreting this as a loud sound.

A related theory proposes a brief reduction in activity of the brainstem, particularly the reticular activating system (which is involved in regulating transitions between wakefulness and sleep).

Exploding head syndrome typically does not involve pain, and is therefore different from headaches and migraines.

The syndrome’s distinct features also makes epilepsy an unlikely explanation for most people.

How common is it?

Exploding head syndrome is more common than you may think.

It occurs in at least 10% of the population, and around 30% of people will experience it at least once in their lifetime.

It can occur at any age, often after the age of 50. It may be slightly more common in women, but we don’t know why.

Exploding head syndrome is more likely in people who have other sleep disturbances, such as insomnia or sleep paralysis.

It is also associated with:

• being more stressed or emotionally tense than usual
• anxiety
• disrupted sleep patterns or poor sleep associated with daytime tiredness.

How is it treated?

Exploding head syndrome is harmless and not a sign of a serious brain problem. Episodes are usually brief, and may occur sporadically or in brief clusters before resolving on their own.

Once people are reassured the condition is not harmful and not a sign of brain damage or serious disease, episodes may become less frightening and frequent.

Medications are considered if episodes are frequent and very distressing but there haven’t been any large clinical trials that can guide treatment. Some sufferers have benefited from medications such as such as clomipramine but the evidence is limited, and more research is needed.

More commonly, treatment consists of reassurance and improving sleep habits. Some people report that addressing sleep problems such as insomnia, reducing tiredness and practising mindfulness and breathing techniques can help.

Generally harmless

In 1619 French philosopher René Descartes described having three dreams he regarded as a sign of divine revelation. In one, he heard a loud sound and saw a bright flash of light when he woke up. Some researchers have suggested what he was really experiencing was exploding head syndrome.

Despite its dramatic name, exploding head syndrome is harmless. For many people, the most effective intervention is understanding what it is – and knowing that it is not dangerous.

Although it is generally harmless, you should seek medical advice if episodes occur frequently, impact on your quality of life or are causing distress. Consult a doctor if they are painful, or associated with seizures, prolonged confusion, loss of consciousness or severe headache.

Flavie Waters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Exploding head syndrome: the surprisingly common condition with a terrifying name – https://theconversation.com/exploding-head-syndrome-the-surprisingly-common-condition-with-a-terrifying-name-276273

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Andrew Fairbairn, Professor of Archaeology, The University of Queensland

Odin was a kelpie. Attentive and protective, with a happy smile and an endless hope for food, he succumbed to a terminal disease late last year. At his death, a deep sense of grief ripped through the household of one of us (Andrew): while Odin was not human, he was an irreplaceable member of the family.

Our new research, published in Nature this week, helps explain the unique and striking way dogs like Odin fit into the human world – whether reading our moods, following our movements or becoming part of the rhythm of everyday life.

Based on international collaborations lasting decades, the two new studies have unlocked previously unavailable information from the bones of dogs long dead. Yet these papers are not just about the dusty old bones found in our archaeological sites, or the cutting-edge science applied to them.

They shine light on a relationship that has been part of the human social world for at least 16,000 years.

The earliest known dog

Dogs are the earliest known animals to be both tamed and separated from their wild relatives over generations by humans. This process is known as domestication.

It has long been thought that dogs were domesticated from wolves, their closest relatives, during the last Ice Age. Solid evidence to test this has been hard to find in archaeological sites as dog bones are difficult to tell apart from those of wolves using their shape alone.

It has taken the successful extraction of ancient DNA (aDNA), a recently developed technique, to provide definitive identification of dogs, which differ genetically from wolves.

One of the new studies confirmed the earliest known dog is now from Pınarbaşı, a rockshelter site in Karaman, central Turkey. This dog lived around 15,800 years ago.

Excavated in 2004, the bones could have been from either dog pups or wolf cubs. But aDNA analysis confirmed their identity as dogs 20 years later, following 10 years of analysis and comparison with other aDNA results.

The dog pups were buried carefully and treated in death similarly to the humans buried nearby. This continued a close relationship with people during life, as shown by chemical analyses suggesting the dogs and humans shared similar foods, including small fish from the local wetlands. Dogs were not just animals lingering around the edges of campsites. They were already an integral part of human societies.

Integration of dogs into the human social world could have resulted from close cooperation during hunting. Dogs may also have acted as guardians and sentinels for their communities who lived in a world with many dangerous predators such as wolves and leopards.

Moving with people

The same analysis found dogs genetically similar to those at Pınarbaşı at Gough’s Cave in Britain around 14,300 years ago. This suggests a group of closely related dogs spread rapidly from Eurasia all the way to the far end of Europe, moving with people but also moving between different human communities.

These dogs were not related to European wolves and evidence from the second new study, suggests that European dogs were not domesticated separately to those elsewhere, rejecting a long held hypothesis. Their difference to east Asian dogs is due to the spread into Europe with farmers 8,500 years ago from Turkey of dogs which had interbred with local wolves.

We know this because of the DNA of a dog from our site of Boncuklu, an 11,000-year-old village, near Konya in central Turkey. Our excavations showed that pups were buried in the graves of people directly related to those earlier communities at Pınarbaşı, located 30 kilometres to the southeast, though they lived a very different life in permanent houses supported by small-scale farming.

Genetically related farmers from this region spread into Europe around 8,500 years ago, with dogs also genetically related to those at Boncuklu at their heels. The incoming dogs interbred with those already in Europe, but didn’t replace them entirely.

From the deep past to the present

Together, the studies show that dogs were already living alongside people across a surprisingly wide area from Anatolia to the far edge of western Europe in the last Ice Age, long before farming began, and that their history is older, more mobile and more entangled with human history than we once thought.

The detailed archaeological evidence from Boncuklu and Pınarbaşı show just how close dogs and humans had become and the larger scale analysis sees them repeatedly moving through human networks that crossed cultural boundaries.

We still do not know exactly where and when dog domestication began, and the patient research that will answer that question is already under way in excavations across the world.

But these two new studies make one thing very clear: by the end of the Ice Age, dogs were already deeply woven into human life and had become part of the community, forging deep bonds that continue to this day.

Andrew Fairbairn receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Australian Institute of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Wenner Gren Foundation for Anthropological Research and The University of Queensland.

Douglas Baird has received funding from The British Institute at Ankara, the British Academy, Gerda Henkel Stiftung, Australian Research Council, Arts and Humanities Research Council, National Geographic, Wainwright Fund Oxford, IFRGlobal.

Gökhan Mustafaoğlu has received funding from The British Institute at Ankara, the British Academy, Gerda Henkel Stiftung, Australian Research Council, Arts and Humanities Research Council, National Geographic, Wainwright Fund Oxford, IFRGlobal.

– ref. Ancient bones show dogs have been woven into human life for nearly 16,000 years – https://theconversation.com/ancient-bones-show-dogs-have-been-woven-into-human-life-for-nearly-16-000-years-279219

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Cordelia Fine, Professor, History & Philosophy of Science program, School of Historical & Philosophical Studies, The University of Melbourne

What causes workplace sexual harassment? How can we continue to better understand it? And what can be done to prevent it?

Successful answers to questions like these need a good scientific explanation. But which explanation should we draw on?

Two very different explanations circulate among social scientists. In new research, we compared how the two stack up – and found one of them was a clear winner.

Evolved sexual tendencies or maintaining gender hierarchies?

On one view, sexual harassment – as the name implies – is all about sexuality. According to the evolutionary psychology research program, men and women have evolved different psychological mechanisms to solve the different challenges they faced to successfully reproduce back in the Pleistocene epoch.

For men, these adaptive mechanisms include a greater interest in casual sex, and a tendency to mistakenly conclude that women are sexually interested in them. Women, in contrast, evolved to be more sensitive to potential threats to their sexual autonomy – and therefore perceive men’s advances as harassing.

But for social science scholars informed by the gender hierarchy – the idea that men hold more power and status than women – sexual harassment is “an expression of workplace sexism, not sexuality or sexual desire”. It is a mechanism for preserving work roles as masculine terrain, and pushing back against threats to men’s higher status within a workplace.

These two accounts offer very different ways of explaining workplace sexual harassment. So how do we go about deciding which one to draw on?

It might be tempting to think one scientific view is preferred over another for political reasons: he likes the evolutionary psychology account because he is a misogynist; or she likes the gender hierarchy account because she is blinded by her feminist ideology.

Putting explanations to the test

These accusations don’t get us very far. Fortunately, the philosophy of science gives us three well-established criteria for what makes for a good scientific explanation.

These three criteria flow from thinking about what scientific explanations are for.

The intrinsic value of explanations is that they provide understanding. We understand something better when we have identified its causes.

When it comes to sexual harassment, ideally the causes we identify will explain a broad range of sexual harassment phenomena. Sexual harassment is not just the “powerful man exploits attractive female subordinate” scenario that tends to get the most press attention.

Scientific explanations also have instrumental value. The causal explanations scientists produce can be used to generate new predictions that can be tested in future research. In other words, a good scientific explanation is also fruitful.

Scientists’ causal explanations can also be used to identify factors that can be manipulated or controlled. This gives society potential interventions to shape outcomes we care about, such as reducing workplace sexual harassment.

Two explanations, head to head

In our recently published research, we used these three criteria for a good scientific explanation to compare the evolutionary psychology and gender hierarchy maintenance accounts of workplace sexual harassment. So what did we find?

First, we found that the gender hierarchy maintenance explanation was clearly superior when it came to identifying causes that make sense of a broad range of workplace sexual harassment phenomena.

Evolutionary psychology makes sense of sexual coercion and some forms of unwanted sexual attention, to be sure. But research shows these kinds of behaviours almost invariably go hand-in-hand with sexist jokes, crude sexual remarks and sexually degrading imagery, such as porn.

None of these behaviours are plausibly about trying to gain sexual favours, even though some are sexual in nature. These behaviours are called “gender harassment” –which is the most common form of sexual harassment.

Unlike evolutionary psychology, gender hierarchy maintenance can explain all three forms of harassment. Demands for sexual favours, sexist remarks and requests for note-taking can all be understood as behaviours that reinforce traditional gender roles and confer greater status and authority to men.

Second, we found that both explanations have given rise to fruitful research programs that generate and test predictions. However, evolutionary psychology faces a challenge here.

The theory’s core prediction is that ancestral men who misperceived sexual interest in women tended to enjoy greater reproductive success, which is impossible to test. It is also plausible that sex pests would have faced disadvantages within close-knit communities. Without a time machine, this prediction can never be tested.

Third, we found the gender hierarchy maintenance explanation has the edge when it comes to identifying effective interventions. Flattening organisational hierarchies, and loosening the link between status and masculinity, are potential ways to change things.

Evolutionary psychology points instead to interventions such as educating men about what counts as sexual harassment. However, evidence suggests this kind of training is not effective. And, of course, the only way to really change people’s evolved adaptive mechanisms would be to change their brains and genes – which we can’t do.

Gender hierarchy maintenance is a better explanation

Our research points to the value of understanding workplace sexual harassment through the lens of gender hierarchy maintenance. This offers hope for the future of workplace culture: it suggests men are not essentially predisposed to be sexual harassers, with little that can be done to alter their evolved natures.

Instead, sexual harassment is best understood as a consequence of our current social and cultural environment. And this is something we can shape to facilitate a better and safer future at work.

Cordelia Fine receives funding from the Australian Research Council, and has previously received funding from the Victorian Government Commission for Gender Equality in the Public Sector and the Women’s Leadership Institute Australia.

Kate Lynch receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Arthropoda Foundation, and has previously received funding from the Australia & Pacific Science Foundation and the John Templeton Foundation.

Morgan Anna Weaving has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Why do men sexually harass women at work? Science offers two explanations – but only one of them holds up – https://theconversation.com/why-do-men-sexually-harass-women-at-work-science-offers-two-explanations-but-only-one-of-them-holds-up-278894

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anna Marie Brennan, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Waikato

What began with surprise US and Israeli strikes on Iran one month ago has hardened into a grinding stand-off, with no clear way out.

The conflict’s opening blows on February 28 killed senior leaders in Tehran, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – prompting retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel, US bases and Gulf infrastructure.

Years of tension over Iran’s nuclear programme and its regional influence have now boiled over into open warfare, with diplomacy faltering as both sides entrench their positions.

On the ground in Iran, the violence is worsening what was already a strained human rights situation. News reporting from within the country carries daily images of damaged neighbourhoods, overwhelmed hospitals and families fleeing tit-for-tat strikes.

One incident in particular – the US airstrike on a school in Minab in southern Iran that left dozens of girls dead – highlights the scale of the devastation, as well as the war’s murky legal context.

Future war crimes investigators will need to ask some obvious questions. Was the school a civilian site, was it used for military purposes, what precautions were taken and was the civilian harm excessive relative to any military advantage?

Only then will responsibility be able to be determined – but such clarity is likely to be a long way off.

When the law is clear, but accountability is not

Many observers have already criticised the shaky legal basis for the conflict.

Some have described the US position – as set out in a letter to the United Nations invoking self-defence and the protection of Israel against an alleged imminent threat from Iran and its allied groups – as thin.

Others have argued that strikes supporting the stated goal of regime change were unlawful, citing the UN Charter’s prohibition on the use of force against the political independence of a state and the principle of non-intervention.

At this point, it is safe to assume that accountability for alleged international crimes by all sides to this ongoing conflict will remain elusive.

The International Criminal Court has no automatic jurisdiction because the United States, Israel and Iran are not parties to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the court and defines its powers.

A UN Security Council referral of the situation to the court for investigation and possible prosecution is also unlikely, given the high potential for any such move to be blocked by veto-wielding permanent members.

Is any accountability likely to come through internal investigations by the states involved? This too is uncertain, as such investigations are often classified or narrowly framed by military and legal authorities.

This means independent investigators are often left to piece together their cases from satellite imagery, authenticated videos, mass graves, weapon remnants and medical and mortuary records.

While this can establish what happened and where, linking harm to identifiable decision-makers and proving intent is far harder while the conflict continues and key military records remain sealed.

This is not to say the laws of war themselves are ambiguous. They require forces to distinguish between civilians and fighters, avoid excessive civilian harm and take practical precautions.

International criminal cases turn on attribution and intent, meaning investigators must show who authorised an attack and what they knew. But without insider witnesses or key evidence, that is difficult, and proper accountability for war crimes often fall short.

A pattern of impunity?

We have seen this pattern before, where efforts to secure accountability are blocked or weakened by international deadlocks.

In 2014, the UN Security Council attempted to refer alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity against civilians in Syria’s civil war to the ICC. The effort failed after Russia and China vetoed it, citing concerns about sovereignty and the impact on a political settlement.

In 2021, the UN Human Rights Council ended the mandate of the Group of Eminent Experts on Yemen – an independent body tasked with investigating and reporting on violations by all parties – after some member states voted against renewing it. This removed one of the international community’s few mechanisms for documenting human rights abuses.

The ongoing crisis in Gaza has also proved a defining test of whether international law can be enforced.

The ICC has opened an investigation into Palestine and issued arrest warrants for senior Israeli and Hamas officials over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

But such warrants depend on states to enforce them, and cooperation has been limited. A parallel UN inquiry has found Israel has committed genocide, yet the path to legal accountability remains contested.

In Iran, a similar outcome – or lack of one – now appears sadly likely.

I was a visiting professional at the International Criminal Court in 2014. I worked in chambers for Judge Sylvia Steiner on the Jean-Pierre Bemba Gombo (Central African Republic) case.

– ref. A war without accountability: why the Middle East crisis is also a legal quagmire – https://theconversation.com/a-war-without-accountability-why-the-middle-east-crisis-is-also-a-legal-quagmire-279199