The Conversation – Africa – Page 10

December 3, 2025

Sudan’s protesters built networks to fight a tyrant – today they save lives in a war

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Lovise Aalen, Research Professor, Political Science, Chr. Michelsen Institute

Sudan has a long history of civilian-led resistance, with young people playing a key role. For example, informal neighbourhood networks established in 2013 to survive repression under three decades of authoritarian rule have since transformed into vibrant support systems.

These groups helped mobilise mass protests in 2018. They have provided a lifeline for communities in the ongoing civil war, which started in 2023.

During the mass protests, youth-led networks organised political sit-ins and demonstrations against the Islamist regime of Omar al-Bashir. They were ultimately successful in overthrowing a 30-year dictatorship.

We are researchers in the fields of anthropology and political science, studying youth mobilisation in authoritarian states. In a recent paper, we studied the emergence and role of Sudan’s neighbourhood committees and informal networks. These became the backbone of protests.

We found that young people built grassroots networks through engagement in different forms of voluntarism and charity. They built resistance structures under the repressive environment of the Islamist regime. Later (around 2013 or so), these developed into neighbourhood committees organising resistance underground.

And since the outbreak of war in April 2023, Emergency Response Rooms, which are community-led networks, have been providing crucial humanitarian relief.

African youth mobilisation is often seen as an outcome of tension between an urban underclass and a repressive state. We argue that in Sudan, a collaboration between different classes, including the middle class, has been key in the fight against autocratic governance.

We found that the committees enabled protests. They played a vital role in organising emergency responses during times of crises.

Building the resistance

Under the repressive policies of the al-Bashir regime, political activities were not allowed in public spaces. Opposition was heavily suppressed.

Despite this, young people found innovative ways to create political spaces. Neighbourhood committees became sites of resistance, emerging as a critical infrastructure for grassroots mobilisation.

The committees represent a unique blend of political and practical action. They serve a dual functionality – mobilising for change while addressing immediate community needs. This underscores the potential of informal, decentralised networks to drive both political and social transformation.

They were initially formed during the 2013 anti-austerity protests as neighbourhoods’ underground cells. These committees were informal, hyper-local networks of politically engaged youth.

Over time, they evolved into organised structures. They facilitated protests, provided essential services and emergency responses during crises. In the 2018 uprising, they coordinated logistics. They also provided real-time updates through social media.

The committees also supported a sit-in at the military headquarters in April 2019. This became a focal point of the uprising. This sit-in presented a vibrant community space where youth experienced a sense of political togetherness. It featured art exhibitions, public debates and cultural performances, creating a shared vision of a better Sudan.

The civil war

The war between the army and a paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, has put more than 30 million people – about two-thirds of the population – in need of humanitarian aid. This has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Conflict and blockades have meant international efforts to send aid hasn’t always been possible.

During the transitional period after al-Bashir’s exit and the 2023 war, the committees transformed into emergency response rooms. These provided critical services, such as healthcare, food and water. These rooms were run by the same youth networks that had led the protests. They drew on their pre-war experiences of grassroots mobilisation and humanitarian aid.

Amid a devastating civil war, they carry on the idea of political togetherness. Bonds of trust, necessity and solidarity established years ago have transcended ethnic or class divisions. They have created civilian resilience against state repression.

Lessons in resilience

The committees’ ability to adapt to new challenges underscores the importance of grassroots networks in both political and humanitarian contexts.

The concept of political togetherness, as seen in Sudan, reveals how temporary alliances across class, gender and ethnic divides can create a cohesive force for change.

This has implications for understanding youth movements globally, particularly where formal political spaces are inaccessible or untrustworthy.

The adaptability of Sudan’s neighbourhood committees illustrates the resilience of grassroots networks. By stepping into the void left by state failure, these committees provide essential services and also reinforce their legitimacy within their communities.

This suggests that such networks can serve as a foundation for future governance models, especially in post-conflict reconstruction efforts.

However, our study also reveals risks associated with informal and flexible structures.

The lack of formal governance mechanisms within these committees leaves them vulnerable to co-optation, fragmentation and the erosion of trust over time.

Without proper institutional support, the cohesion and effectiveness of these networks may wane. This is especially when the crises or transitions are prolonged.

What next?

In a post-war Sudan, both the Sudanese government and the international community should aim to preserve the emergency response rooms’ autonomy and grassroots nature. This should happen while providing resources and institutional support to enhance their capacity for community service and crisis response.

Activists within Sudan and similar contexts should continue to build on the model of political togetherness. This means fostering inclusive alliances that transcend traditional divides.

By prioritising both political mobilisation and community service, these grassroots networks can maintain the momentum for change while addressing immediate needs.

The humanitarian efforts that the Sudanese people invented are based on previous experience in civil engagement. The current call for a civilian government, which was also a demand by the protesters during the 2018 uprisings, is rooted in political togetherness. It is also linked to the long history of civilian governance practices at the grassroots level.

Lovise Aalen receives funding from the Research Council of Norway (grant no. ES620468) and the Sudan-Norway Academic Collaboration (SNAC). She is a member of the board of the Rafto Foundation for Human Rights.

Mai Azzam receives funding from the Bayreuth International Graduate School for African Studies (BIGSAS) and from the Gender and Diversity Office (GDO) of the Africa Multiple Cluster of Excellence, University of Bayreuth, Germany.

– ref. Sudan’s protesters built networks to fight a tyrant – today they save lives in a war – https://theconversation.com/sudans-protesters-built-networks-to-fight-a-tyrant-today-they-save-lives-in-a-war-270176

December 2, 2025

South Africa needs to rethink how it measures intellectual and developmental disabilities – what’s lacking

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Lieketseng Ned, Lecturer, Stellenbosch University

The effective planning and delivery of services for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities in South Africa is severely constrained by the lack of reliable data.

Intellectual disability is characterised by significant limitations in:

intellectual functioning (reasoning, learning, problem solving)
adaptive behaviour (a range of everyday social and practical skills)

which originate before the age of 22.

Developmental disabilities are a diverse group of chronic conditions due to an impairment in physical, learning, language, or behaviour areas. Intellectual disability, autism, cerebral palsy, Down syndrome and fetal alcohol syndrome are some of the conditions.

South Africa measures disability at population level using the Washington Group Short Set of six functional questions. This ensures international comparability. But it doesn’t adequately capture intellectual and development disabilities. This is because the questions only capture difficulties in doing basic activities. They don’t capture a diagnosis. It’s therefore difficult to know what diagnoses have led people to report difficulties.

This makes disaggregation by disability diagnosis difficult. Data disaggregation by disability types is key. It contributes to effective policy, resource allocation and budgeting as well as appropriate intervention and targeted services.

This article builds on our work researching disability in South Africa for over 10 years.

In it, we propose pragmatic steps to improve the ability to monitor the status of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities of all ages. South Africa can add to the evidence base by producing robust, actionable metrics that strengthen population data. In turn this will enhance planning and implementation.

Current measurement landscape

Disability measurement in South Africa rests on two main pillars.

The first is administrative records. These include:

the South African Social Security Agency’s medical assessments for disability grants
the Department of Basic Education’s records of learners with special needs
the South African Revenue Service’s Disability Tax Rebate system (which also requires a medical diagnosis and assessment)
the Department of Health healthcare registers.

These all provide useful service-level insights. But they only capture people already in contact with services. And they use different coding standards.

The second pillar is population-based surveys. These include Washington Group questions on disability. This generates internationally comparable prevalence estimates. But this measurement doesn’t include children under 5 years. The nature of the questions also means that a wide range of predominantly invisible disabilities are missed.

For children, the Washington Group/Unicef Child Functioning Module is internationally recognised as a valid measure for 2–17 year olds. It is available and recommended. But it’s still not widely implemented in South Africa.

As a result, the current system remains inadequate in reliably disaggregating data by disability type, age, severity or onset.

Measurement limitations

Population-based measures of functioning don’t provide a diagnosis. It is therefore difficult to identify people with intellectual and developmental disability within the data.

Additionally, the Washington Group does not ask about psychosocial functioning. An example of such a question could be: Do you have difficulty forming relationships?. Relying on it alone may undercount many people whose primary impairments are cognitive, adaptive or psychosocial.

Ideally, it would be beneficial to have both the diagnosis and the functional profile.

National reporting also leaves an important early-childhood blind spot. Infants and many toddlers (0–4 years) are not captured in the same way as older children and adults. Yet this is the period when early detection and intervention can have the most impact. The Washington Group/Unicef measure improves data for children from 2 to 4 years. But it isn’t embedded in the country’s data collection platforms.

Data on young children are further limited by uneven developmental surveillance and the narrow use of the Road to Health Booklet. The booklet serves as a comprehensive record of a child’s medical history, health status, growth and development.

Administrative records are also inconsistently coded and weakly linked. This makes them an unreliable source of data on type of disability. Single-item indicators (for example, “difficulty communicating”) risk misclassification unless analysed alongside onset and other related functioning.

What is possible?

The question that we asked in our recently completed country assessment in collaboration with Special Olympics South Africa is:

how does one use data on the functioning profile to understand diagnosis and vice versa?

Such a crosswalk would allow identification of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities in the data. As an initial step, we created and used a composite indicator. This could potentially assist in identifying people 5 years and older.

For each dataset, we used a combination of the already existing Washington Group Short Set variables to create the new “With intellectual and developmental disabilities” variable.

This was followed by running cross-tabulations of the “with possible intellectual and developmental disabilities” versus “without intellectual and developmental disabilities” with a number of other health-related variables. These cross-tabulations were used to identify gaps in accessing health care services.

We acknowledge that this is an imperfect measure. But it provides a starting point to try and understand the trends in access to health care.

Next steps

We recommend the following:

Amend survey instruments to include the Washington Group alongside diagnosis questions for those under five.
Do research to understand the functional profile of people with people with intellectual and developmental disabilities based on their responses to the Washington Group Short Set.
Expand training for field staff on the new modules. This should include interviewing techniques.
Ensure national and subnational coordination.
Publish detailed breakdowns by disability type, by age group (including under 5), and by region.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. South Africa needs to rethink how it measures intellectual and developmental disabilities – what’s lacking – https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-to-rethink-how-it-measures-intellectual-and-developmental-disabilities-whats-lacking-268497

December 2, 2025

African land policy reforms have been good for women and communities – but review of 18 countries shows major gaps

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Marc Wegerif, Senior Lecturer, Development Studies, University of Pretoria

Land tenure is the relationship, defined in law and customs, that people as individuals or groups have with land. It involves a bundle of rights to land, such as the right to use, sell, or bequeath land. Secure tenure is crucial for people to have secure homes, for food production, and for the economy. For many it is also central to their identity and culture.

While there is broad agreement on the importance of effective governance of secure land tenure, the best way to achieve this is the subject of much debate. The core contestation is between commodifying land through individual rights and markets, versus protecting it as a social good through communal rights to prevent landlessness and inequality. An overlapping debate is between more customary or traditional systems and those based on statutory law and democratic principles.

Food systems, economic justice, and agrarian reform have been the focus of my scholarship over the last 20 years. Seeing both progress and the same old debates continue, my two co-researchers and I felt it a good moment to examine what has happened with land tenure governance and what we can learn from that.

Our research involved conducting a comprehensive review of 18 countries – 16 in Africa and two in Asia – between 2021 and 2023.

Our study found a significant shift towards the recognition of customary rights and the strengthening of women’s land rights. These are driven by a wave of new policies, legislation and programmes such as those in Sierra Leone, Ethiopia and Malawi.

Although progress has been made, the struggle over land – balancing market interests with social protection, individual rights with communal governance – remains highly contested. Learning from the good examples and seeing what still needs to be done is crucial for further debates and action on the issue of land rights and governance.

The findings

Our review involved extensive interviews with a range of actors from government, civil society and academia in each country and a review of policies, legislation and other documents.

Our study also came just over ten years after the adoption of the Framework and Guidelines on Land Policy in Africa and the Voluntary Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure.

The two are internationally agreed guidelines intended to assist national governments to improve their land policies and governance. We used them as benchmarks against which to review the land tenure governance arrangements in each country.

We found that the past two decades have seen a remarkable surge in land policy and legislative activity. Fifteen of the 18 countries studied have adopted new or substantially amended land policies or laws since 2000. Twelve have done so since 2012.

Central achievements of these reforms have been the strengthening of women’s land rights and improved legal recognition of customary and communal land tenure systems. This is seen in the adoption of policies and legislation that recognise customary land rights and prohibit gender discrimination.

This has led to the increased inclusion of community participation in land decision making procedures. There are also programmes that have been implemented to register customary land rights.

Some countries, such as Zambia, have set targets for the minimum amount of land that should go to women. Such interventions have improved the land rights of millions who have historically been vulnerable to dispossession.

These shifts, in particular recognising communal and customary land rights, represent a move away from the wholesale individualisation, privatisation and commoditisation of land.

The proponents of land privatisation, most notably the World Bank, argue that it unlocks access to capital and leads to the transfer of land to those who can use it most effectively.

Those arguing against it claim that it has not worked, particularly in Africa, and leads to greater land inequality and landlessness.

Instead, the 15 countries in this study that have adopted new policies and legislation in the last two decades are forging a middle path. They are seeking to secure traditional rights while unlocking development potential, such as by securing farmers’ rights and enabling investments. The formal registration of individual rights to customary land has been achieved cost-effectively in several contexts, without a full privatisation of land and without leading to widespread landlessness.

Crucially, and contrary to earlier fears, recent land registration efforts have often benefited women more than men in several settings, such as Rwanda and Ethiopia.

The success stories

Two standout examples illustrate the potential of well-crafted and implemented reforms.

In Sierra Leone, the passage of the Customary Land Rights Act and the National Land Commission Act in 2022 set new benchmarks for protecting community and women’s rights. These laws entrench the increasingly recognised requirement of “free, prior and informed consent” from affected communities and families before any changes to their land rights or use can proceed.

The law breaks new ground by explicitly stipulating that such consent must be given by both “adult male and female members of the affected community,” ensuring women’s voices are heard. Furthermore, the Customary Land Rights Act mandates that a minimum of 60% of both women and men in families must approve decisions concerning family land. This is a potentially powerful measure to protect the interests of all dependants in extended families.

In Ethiopia, a different kind of success story has unfolded through a massive, state-driven land certification programme. This has resulted in the registration of individual community land rights to over 25 million land parcels.

This was achieved at a remarkably low cost of just US$8.50 per title and provided to beneficiaries for free. The programme has had a positive gender impact with 23%-24% of certificates issued in the names of women alone (compared to 14%-15% to men) and a further 55% issued as joint titles to couples.

This demonstrates that large-scale, cost-effective land registration that strengthens women’s tenure security is achievable.

Examples of stalled reform

Our study also revealed numerous implementation gaps. Policies and laws may align with international voluntary guidelines principles on paper. But translation into tangible security for citizens is often weak.

Furthermore, several countries, such as Cameroon and Senegal, are hampered by a failure to adopt new legislation altogether and still operate with land laws that are over 50 years old.

South Africa serves as a stark example of stalled reform. Following the end of apartheid over three decades ago, there was a flurry of post-liberation land legislation. However, the country has failed to finalise new legislation to address tenure insecurity on communal land, which is home to approximately 20 million people. The 2004 Communal Land Rights Act was declared unconstitutional, and a subsequent 2017 draft bill has yet to be passed.

Consequently, land governance in these areas remains in a legal vacuum.

South Africa also continues to rely on an outdated, slow and expensive land registration system for private land. The country has failed to implement a modern, fit-for-purpose national land registry that could serve all citizens. This legislative and administrative inertia has left the country’s land reform programme perpetually underperforming and land distribution as unequal as ever.

The journey is far from complete

The overall trajectory of land tenure governance in the first decades of the 21st century is one of cautious optimism. The examples of Sierra Leone’s progressive laws and Ethiopia’s mass certification show what is possible with political will and innovative approaches.

However, the journey is far from complete. The challenges of implementation are immense, and countries like South Africa, Cameroon and Senegal highlight the critical need to modernise legal frameworks and land administration.

Marc Wegerif receives research funding from the DSTI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Food Security (CoE-FS). He is a Senior Lecturer in Development Studies at the University of Pretoria and a Principal Investigator with the CoE-FS.

– ref. African land policy reforms have been good for women and communities – but review of 18 countries shows major gaps – https://theconversation.com/african-land-policy-reforms-have-been-good-for-women-and-communities-but-review-of-18-countries-shows-major-gaps-268318

December 2, 2025

Fossil hunters find tracks of animals from about 3 million years ago – a first in South Africa

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Charles Helm, Research Associate, African Centre for Coastal Palaeoscience, Nelson Mandela University

South Africa is well known for its fossil heritage, a record of plants and animals that tells us what the world was like long ago.

Over the past 15 years, our research group at the African Centre for Coastal Palaeoscience at Nelson Mandela University has studied some of these ancient species by examining the tracks and traces they left during the Pleistocene Epoch (a period from about 1.8 million years ago to 11,700 years ago, sometimes known as the “Ice Ages”). We have identified more than 350 vertebrate tracksites along the coast from this time. These animals left their tracks and traces in sandy surfaces that hardened into rock over time. The oldest fossil track we’ve found is around 400,000 years old.

All this time we were aware that there might be more, even older trace fossils to find further inland. We knew that up to 30km inland there were cemented dunes formed from wind-blown sand, probably around 3 million years old. These dunes, which are now rock, are known as the Wankoe Formation.

However, there were problems with finding any fossils there. There seemed to be a relatively limited number of suitable rock outcrops, showing what used to be dune surfaces. And often those that we did find were eroded and calcified: good for finding caves and mineral formations (like stalagmites), but not for finding tracks – or so it seemed. In addition, much of the Wankoe Formation is on private property, and permission would be needed to access potential sites.

We realised that to find any fossil traces we would have to focus on the areas where the original rock layers were well preserved and visible.
Then one of our team members, Given Banda, identified what appeared to be a trackway on an inland surface near his home community. This was a spur to action, and next, when staying in the Grootbos Private Nature Reserve to research nearby coastal tracks, we chanced upon more inland track-like features. A more thorough reconnaissance in the reserve followed, and the more we looked, the more tracks we found, including one that’s certainly a trackway (see photo below).

The results of our findings were recently published.

No vertebrate tracks had previously been identified in the Wankoe Formation. We have found that the formation is rich in fossils and that vertebrate tracks are common there. Furthermore, these seem to be the first recorded Pliocene vertebrate tracks described from southern Africa. The Pliocene was an epoch from about 5.3 million to 2.6 million years ago. These findings therefore add to what we know about ancient environments.

New treasure trove of fossil tracks and traces

The Wankoe Formation track discoveries are important for three main reasons:

they might tell us more about body fossils
we might find traces of human ancestor species
the tracks are raised rather than indented, which is rare.

Firstly, there is a wonderful Pliocene body fossil site just a few hundred kilometres away. Known as Langebaanweg or, more popularly, the West Coast Fossil Park, the site boasts a vast array of extinct creatures. The body fossil record and trace fossil (ichnological record can not only complement each other, but have the potential to yield new findings that constructively inform and enrich each other.

For example, on the coast we have found trackways of giraffe and giant tortoises, that were not known to inhabit the region based on the body fossil record. We hope that we can complement the body fossil record with our ichnological findings. Already we have identified a tracksite that suggests a possible wolverine trackmaker, consistent with the finding of an extinct wolverine at Langebaanweg.

Secondly, when we started work on the younger deposits on the coast 15 years ago, we knew that we needed to be on the lookout for hominin tracksites, as we were aware that ancestral hominins had been there at the time. Since then, we have found more than 20 such sites. These make up by far the largest archive of hominin tracksites more than 40,000 years old in the world.

We can try to apply similar thinking to our Pliocene discoveries inland from the coast.

Pliocene deposits are not encountered that often in Africa, and these Western Cape examples seem to be among the only ones described from southern Africa. The Laetoli site in Tanzania is globally famous for its australopithecine trackways, which remain the only tracks of these possible ancestors of our Homo genus from the Pliocene. They are also the oldest unequivocal tracks of their kind in the world.

While we have not yet found tracks that are conclusively of primate origin in the Wankoe Formation, and we do not know precisely when australopithecines may have first appeared in this region, we are aware of the potential, and need to keep exploring.

Thirdly, the tracks we are finding are different, and are special in their own right. Many of them are “pedestalled”, meaning that instead of forming hollows, they are raised above the surface.

The principle of their origin can easily be replicated on a modern dune surface, provided that the sand is slightly moist (cohesive) and a strong wind is blowing. If you walk along such a surface, you will leave your tracks in the form of depressions. But if you return an hour later, they might be raised above the surface. This is because you will have compressed underlying layers when you made your tracks, and the wind has blown the surrounding sand away but is not strong enough to remove the compressed areas below your tracks. The same principle occurs in snow, where it is much more readily observed (see photo below).

Fossilised pedestalled tracks are globally rare, and the potential for finding more of them is intriguing.

More to find?

Our subsequent explorations have continued to deliver results, and we now realise that even rocks that have been weathered can sometimes preserve tracks, sometimes in profile. (See photo: the underlying layers have been distorted by the weight of the trackmaker.)

We have also found body fossils in the form of trees, roots and bone material embedded in these layers of wind-blown, hardened sand that require further study.

It is perhaps not surprising that the dunes that now form the Wankoe Formation contained tracks on their surfaces. However, the welcome news is that despite all the calcification and weathering that has occurred, evidence of these tracks has not been obliterated.

We now realise that if we know where to look, there will be many suitable surfaces and exposures to explore. And the possibility of finding the tracks of ancestral hominins from the Pliocene forms a new “holy grail” for our research team.

Charles Helm does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Fossil hunters find tracks of animals from about 3 million years ago – a first in South Africa – https://theconversation.com/fossil-hunters-find-tracks-of-animals-from-about-3-million-years-ago-a-first-in-south-africa-267567

December 1, 2025

Nigeria’s low-cost private schools are the only option for millions: is closing them a good idea?

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Thelma Obiakor, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Cambridge

Nigeria’s basic education landscape consists of public (government) schools and a diverse private sector. Private schools in Nigeria refer to educational institutions that are run by private individuals, religious organisations, foundations or business enterprises. These schools are diverse in terms of size, cost, ownership models and target populations, ranging from low-fee neighbourhood schools to faith-based schools and “premium” schools. The number of private schools isn’t captured in official statistics.

Over the past year, many private schools have been closed across the country. Ebonyi State sealed more than 280 unapproved schools. Cross River officials shut down 69, and Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Delta states launched their own crackdowns on “rogue” schools operating without government approval or with substandard infrastructure.

These closures are being justified on safety and quality grounds, given that many of these schools, commonly referred to as low-cost private schools, operate without full registration.

Before a private school can open, owners must pay multiple inspection, registration and annual renewal fees. They must also meet infrastructure requirements and show evidence of qualified teaching staff.

The recent enforcement drives expose a fault line in Nigeria’s education system: the country’s growing dependence on low-cost private schools to fill the gaps that an overstretched public system can no longer cover.

I researched the private schooling market in Nigeria for my doctorate, and my latest paper sets out some of the factors that shape enrolment in these schools in Nigeria.

I found two main factors: the proximity and accessibility of public schools, and affordability.

The implication for ongoing closure drives is significant. If low-cost private schools are concentrated in communities where public schools are unavailable or distant, or are the only affordable options, then wide-scale closures disproportionately threaten access for children from low-income households, particularly in hard-to-reach or underserved areas. Abrupt shutdowns without transition plans can interrupt learning and deepen existing inequalities.

More investment is needed to make sure every child can go to school.

Private school diversity

Across Nigeria, private provision has expanded rapidly. According to figures cited by the minister of education, the number of private schools grew by about 39% between 2017 and 2022, compared with only 3.5% growth in public schools over the same period.

In my research, I grouped private schools into three cost categories – low-cost, mid-cost and high-cost – based on mandatory educational costs. I used national survey data from 2015 (the latest data is from 2020, but is not publicly available yet), which showed that most pupils who were enrolled in private schools attended those in the low-cost category.

My analysis of the 2015 survey data found that 52% of private-school pupils in urban areas and 49% in rural areas attended low-cost private schools. A further finding was that public schools and low-cost private schools served similar populations: children from low-income households with limited schooling alternatives.

State-level evidence reinforces this. In Kwara State, a 2016 census found that 67% and 41% of urban and rural private schools respectively were low-cost private schools. More recent data from the Partnership for Learning for All in Nigeria (a UK-government-funded education programme operating in Nigeria) show that a high proportion of private schools are low-cost schools that operate without approval in some northern states: around 85% in Kano and 80% in Jigawa.

Taken together, these national and state findings show that low-cost private schools have become an important route to education for millions of pupils.

Access and affordability

Access

Although parental preference plays a role for some households, attendance in low-cost private schools is shaped by the availability and accessibility of public schools. My doctoral research shows that attendance is most prominent in areas where public-school provision is weak. In many parts of Nigeria, weak provision can take the form of overcrowded classrooms or limited school availability. Distance to the nearest public school also plays a key role. The further a low-income family lives from a public school, the more likely they are to enrol their child in a low-cost private school. This pattern is pronounced in areas where public provision is thin and mobility costs are high.

In practice, low-cost private schools operate as an access mechanism, stepping in where the state is absent or unable to meet local demand.

Affordability

Affordability further explains why these schools are widely used. My research found that their annual fees typically ranged from ₦8,000 (about US$18 in 2015, the year the data was collected) in urban areas to ₦5,000 (about US$11 in 2015) in rural areas. Paradoxically, the total cost of attending a public school was sometimes higher, with an average of US$43 in urban areas and US$24 in rural areas.

Recent data from the Partnership for Learning for All in Nigeria baseline study in Jigawa shows that about 40% of low-cost private schools charge no tuition, while 48% charge ₦10,000 or less per year (approximately US$22 in 2022). This confirms that they are either free or highly affordable for most families. Affordability matters because public education, although constitutionally free, is rarely without costs in practice.

Many states still permit partial fee regimes or informal levies, and parents often bear expenses for uniforms, learning materials and other charges. Policymakers have begun to flag this issue, with the Imo State House of Assembly recently urging the government to enforce free basic education and eliminate charges.

Regulating for inclusion

Closing down private schools without transition plans could prevent low-income families from educating their children.

Nigeria’s regulatory framework for private schools is among the most demanding in sub-Saharan Africa. An assessment of 22 countries found that Nigerian states ranked among the most restrictive for market entry.

If the goal is to raise standards without undermining access, regulation must shift from punishment to support.

Tiered licensing would allow low-cost private schools to operate legally while improving over time. Oversight should be paired with practical assistance such as training or conditional waivers, an approach reflected in the 2025 National Policy on Non-State Schools. Every closure should include a plan for placing pupils in schools with capacity.

Nigeria cannot regulate its way out of reliance on private school provision. Stronger public investment is needed so families are not forced to pay privately for basic education.

Thelma Obiakor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Nigeria’s low-cost private schools are the only option for millions: is closing them a good idea? – https://theconversation.com/nigerias-low-cost-private-schools-are-the-only-option-for-millions-is-closing-them-a-good-idea-270097

December 1, 2025

Johannesburg’s produce market has supplied the informal sector for decades: a refresh is due

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Marc Wegerif, Senior Lecturer, Development Studies, University of Pretoria

South Africa’s food system is a complex landscape where high levels of production coexist with severe food insecurity. In a 2024 survey, 63.5% of households were found to be food insecure and 28.8% of children stunted.

In this food system, fresh produce markets owned by municipalities are critical for food access and nutrition. The Agriculture Department reported that in 2023, the country’s 17 main municipal fresh produce markets sold over 3 million tons of fresh fruit and vegetables, worth R24.6 billion (US$1.37 billion). This is approximately 40%-50% of the fresh produce from farmers in South Africa.

The relationship between public markets and the informal sector, in particular, is fundamental to food security. Studies being carried out with support from the DSTI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Food Security in South Africa confirm that fresh produce sold by street traders who source from municipal markets is consistently cheaper than in formal supermarkets.

By selling at low prices in convenient locations, informal traders reduce the cost of food and the need for transport when shopping. They are key to making fruit and vegetables physically and economically accessible to the urban poor.

But this food system is under threat. Our research found that supermarket chains are buying more produce directly from farmers. Corroborated by the Competition Commission, there has been a steady decline in the share of national produce distributed through municipal markets.

We are social scientists who have been doing research on urban food systems in South Africa for the last seven years. We carried out research at the Johannesburg fresh produce market to better understand its role in food security.

We studied the market over three years, making observations during many visits and interviewing over 120 people in different roles. The market traces its origins back to Market Square in Johannesburg in the late 1800s, and is now the biggest of South Africa’s municipal markets.

It serves South Africa’s economic hub of Gauteng as well as selling some produce to other parts of the country and to neighbouring countries. The produce comes from the largest commercial operations and from small-scale farmers – anyone can sell there if they wish to.

The study provided clear evidence that the market is essential infrastructure for a more resilient, equitable and food-secure future.

To safeguard the role of markets like this, a concerted effort to protect and invest in them is required.

Johannesburg fresh produce market

The Johannesburg fresh produce market accounts for around 45% of the total value of sales from the National Fresh Produce Markets. Its annual sales exceed 1.3 million tons, valued at over R11 billion (more than US$610 million).

The City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality owns the property, and a state-owned company manages the operations and staff. Buyers and sellers have to register with the market to buy or sell through agents in the main trading hubs. All that’s required is a form of identity document.

All transactions in the main hubs go through agents and the market system, crediting or debiting the accounts of the sellers or buyers. The agents are registered and insured with the Agricultural Products Agents Council.

The majority of the agents are white men. Some come from families that have been agents in the market for generations. The continuity of these agents provides stability in the market. However, it also leaves the demographics little changed from the apartheid era.

Farmers send their produce to particular agents who then sell it for them, making their money from a commission on sales that is normally 7.5%. The market gets a 5% commission on all sales, which is how it covers operating costs. Anyone can also buy for cash, without registering, at the Unity or Tshiamo (formerly Mandela) markets that are on the same site.

Traders in these cash markets source produce from the main hubs, benefiting from the bulk prices and then breaking bulk to sell on in smaller quantities.

The most visible and profound impact of the Johannesburg fresh produce market is in its role as the primary source of stock for the vast informal retail sector. Thousands of the over 10,000 registered buyers stream through its halls every day, the vast majority being informal traders – street vendors, hawkers and small-scale retailers who form the backbone of fresh produce access in low-income neighbourhoods.

These traders rely on the market’s competitive wholesale prices. They buy in bulk from the main market hubs or in smaller quantities from the traders who break bulk at the Unity and Tshiamo markets.

In turn, they sell to the people of Johannesburg and wider Gauteng Province.

Benefits and challenges

The regulated agent system, while imperfect, ensures that farmers receive payment within five days and provides a competitive marketplace.

The National Fresh Produce Markets uphold a level of competition and choice. Without them, all farmers, large and small, would be in a weaker negotiating position when selling into supermarket supply chains.

As the Competition Commission South Africa concluded in a 2025 report, selling to independent retailers through the National Fresh Produce Markets helps to counter the downward pressure on farm gate prices exerted by powerful buyers.

But there are challenges. Despite their proven value, the future of markets like the Johannesburg fresh produce market is under threat from a confluence of challenges:

loss of market share: large supermarket chains are increasingly buying directly from farmers through their own supply chains
decaying infrastructure: market agents and traders report issues with overcrowded, poorly insulated halls and unreliable cold storage made worse by electricity cuts. These problems increase operational costs and risk spoilage, threatening the market’s competitiveness.

Other challenges include the dominance of white, male market agents and the entrenched, ethnically based networks that facilitate trade. These present a barrier to more equitable participation. Lastly, unstable municipal politics is also affecting the market.

Protecting the municipal markets

We suggest three ways to protect markets such as the Johannesburg fresh produce market.

First, modernise infrastructure, particularly cold storage, to reduce food waste and maintain the quality of perishable goods. The city may have to increase capital expenditure. Revenues generated by the market should be ring-fenced for reinvestment in its infrastructure and services.

Second, insulate market management from municipal politics. Operational efficiency and long-term planning are essential for stability.

Finally, foster inclusivity and transformation without disrupting the social networks that underpin the market’s functioning. This could include facilitating more interaction between all farmers and agents, and supporting groups like the women’s trader collectives, which share information and buy in bulk.

Makhanana Malungane, an economic researcher at the Gauteng Department of Economic Development, contributed to this article.

Marc Wegerif receives funding from the DSTI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Food Security. They funded the research that informs this article.

Marc Wegerif is a Principal Investigator on the DSTI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Food Security

– ref. Johannesburg’s produce market has supplied the informal sector for decades: a refresh is due – https://theconversation.com/johannesburgs-produce-market-has-supplied-the-informal-sector-for-decades-a-refresh-is-due-268151

December 1, 2025

Africa’s longest-running grassland research project offers up a wealth of knowledge

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Craig Morris, Senior Researcher, Agricultural Research Council – Animal Production, University of KwaZulu-Natal

For 75 years, grasslands research conducted just outside Pietermaritzburg, South Africa has informed policy makers and farmers about sustainable management, while training generations of students.

Grasslands and savannas cover more than 60% of South Africa. They are vital not only for livestock and wildlife forage but also for providing key ecosystem services such as water regulation, carbon storage, biodiversity, cultural resources and recreation.

The Ukulinga Research Farm of the University of KwaZulu-Natal is a species-rich grassland with scattered trees. It hosts two long-term experiments that have provided crucial insights into how fire, grazing and soil nutrients shape ecosystems.

In 1950, Professor J.D. Scott, founder of the discipline of grassland science at the university, established two complex grassland experiments at Ukulinga: the Veld Burning and Mowing Trial and the Veld Fertilisation Trial. They are now internationally known as the Ukulinga Grassland Fire Experiment and the Ukulinga Grassland Nutrient Experiment. Initially designed to improve hay yield and forage quality, these experiments have run uninterrupted for 75 years. They have evolved into invaluable ecological laboratories.

They are respectively the longest-running fire experiment in the world and the longest-running nutrient addition experiment in Africa.

Scientific studies on these grassland experiments have spanned molecular, microbial, plant community, and ecosystem scales. They have covered fire effects, nutrient cycling, soil processes, biodiversity responses and remote sensing. Comparative and collaborative studies, often involving US and European teams, highlight the global relevance of these datasets. They connect local observations to international ones, revealing universal patterns while highlighting the unique characteristics of southern African grasslands.

I’m a grassland scientist who has been involved in this research. My colleagues and I looked back to assess the value of research done on the farm. We concluded that it has contributed to ecological theory, shaped local management practices, and supported a wide range of comparative studies, networking and education.

The core scientific value of these experiments lies in their duration and the consistent application of the same treatments over time. Decades of continuous treatments (like burning, or fertiliser) have generated data that reveals slow ecological processes, long-term interactions, and effects that short-term studies cannot detect.

The outdoor laboratories allow researchers to pursue new multidisciplinary investigations and examine interactions with emerging environmental pressures, including climate change.

Early grazing experiments

Valuable livestock grazing experiments were conducted in the 1950s and 1960s. One trial (1958-1974) examined three sheep grazing systems – continuous, rotational, and seasonal rest – at different stocking rates. Another 24-year study (1967-1991) tested nine combinations of rotational grazing periods to evaluate multi-paddock systems.

These early trials and several focused short-term studies provided insights into how grass species respond to grazing or mowing. The findings, many of them published in the African Journal of Range and Forage Science, revealed complex relationships between grazing intensity, plant resilience and grassland productivity. They continue to inform rangeland management today.

Some key results of the long-term experiments

Over decades, excluding fire and mowing transformed some plots into dense, woody thickets, dramatically altering both plant composition and ecosystem function. Regularly burned or mown plots maintained productive, species-rich grasslands.

The nutrient experiment has shown that while nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers can boost grassland productivity, they also alter the original grassland by promoting fast-growing grasses. Over time, added nutrients reduce plant diversity.

Together, the experiments demonstrate how natural disturbances versus artificial nutrient addition drive distinct ecological outcomes. They offer insights into the mechanisms that maintain grassland biodiversity and resilience.

Over the past 75 years, research output from the experiments has steadily grown, and has achieved a broad international reach. Fifty peer-reviewed papers have been produced and the top 10 cited papers from each experiment have collectively been cited in 458 journals by 1,172 principal authors from 78 countries outside South Africa.

The impact

The Ukulinga long-term grassland experiments have shaped sustainable management practices by providing empirical evidence for optimal burning frequencies and seasons in mesic (moderately wet) grasslands. They have highlighted the ecological risks of nutrient enrichment from industrial pollutants, showing how added nutrients can alter grassland composition and reduce diversity.

Beyond research, the experiments have had a profound educational and outreach impact, training generations of students and engaging visitors who carry these insights into policy, conservation and grassland management across South Africa.

Ukulinga now also hosts global-network experiments such as the Nutrient Network (NutNet), Drought Network (DroughtNet), and Disturbance and Recovery Across Global Grasslands Network (DragNet), linking local observations to international studies. Through these collaborations, researchers can compare Ukulinga’s results with similar experiments worldwide.

What next

Preserving these long-term studies is critical for understanding slow ecological responses, succession, and tipping points that only emerge over decades.

Ukulinga (isiZulu for “to test”) provides a platform for addressing pressing questions in grassland science. To safeguard its unique scientific value, the long-term burning, mowing and nutrient addition experiments should be maintained without alteration. Continued support and broader collaboration are essential to fully realise their potential for monitoring long-term ecological responses, testing new hypotheses, and guiding sustainable grassland management.

Craig Morris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Africa’s longest-running grassland research project offers up a wealth of knowledge – https://theconversation.com/africas-longest-running-grassland-research-project-offers-up-a-wealth-of-knowledge-270121

December 1, 2025

Machines whisper before they scream: we built an AI model that predicts expensive problems

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Edward Khomotso Nkadimeng, Post Doc Fellow: AI and Data Systems in Nuclear/Particle Physics, Stellenbosch University

In most industries, maintenance is a waiting game. Things are fixed when they break. But in the 21st century, an age defined by data and automation, that approach no longer makes sense. The solution could be predictive maintenance. This is an approach that uses sensors and software to analyse equipment performance in real time and predict when it might fail.

Edward Khomotso Nkadimeng, a lecturer and researcher in artificial intelligence and data systems in nuclear/particle physics at Stellenbosch University, has researched how a predictive maintenance model can help keep critical systems running – from research equipment to national infrastructure. He explains why this approach could be a practical tool for resilience across Africa.

What is a predictive maintenance model and why did you build one?

For decades after the global industrial boom, many industries relied on a simple rule: wait for a machine to break, then repair it. That made sense when machines were simpler and downtime was just part of the routine.

Periodic maintenance is common too, but still inefficient and often based on time, not actual machine condition. That approach costs time, money, and sometimes even safety. Modern systems are more interconnected and expensive to halt.

A predictive maintenance model is a data-driven system that forecasts equipment failure before it happens. It predicts when systems are degrading, rather than just reacting. It monitors a variety of systems, from industrial pumps, compressors and turbines to scientific instruments, by collecting real‑time data like vibration (which measures how much a machine physically oscillates), temperature, pressure and voltage.

These measurements come from Internet of Things (IoT) or condition-monitoring sensors. Even machines that aren’t ultra-cutting-edge can be instrumented to provide this data. Once collected, the data feeds into machine learning models that learn to recognise patterns associated with slow drift towards failure.

The model monitors a broad range of systems: industrial pumps, compressors, turbines, and high-precision scientific instruments (cyclotrons, vacuum pumps, beamline diagnostics). It is designed for systems where sensor data can be collected – any instrument that generates measurable signals. It uses live data vibration, the physical oscillation of a machine component, where subtle changes in vibration amplitude or frequency often precede mechanical failures, such as bearing wear or rotor imbalance, as well as temperature, pressure and voltages.

While advanced machines may produce richer data, even legacy machinery can benefit with added sensors. The method is therefore broadly applicable to recognise when they’re slowly drifting towards failure.

At NRF-iThemba LABS, a South African national nuclear and accelerator research facility, and Stellenbosch University, I built a system like this out of necessity. Our teams include physicists, engineers and computer scientists who collaborate on high-precision experiments in nuclear and particle physics.

The research instruments are complex, expensive and often one of a kind. When they fail unexpectedly, experiments stop, data is lost, and public funds go to waste. For example, we work with 70 MeV cyclotrons for isotope production, superconducting magnets, radiofrequency acceleration cavities and vacuum systems. These are one-of-a-kind instruments, sensitive to downtime.

So, the goal was to make an affordable, self-learning system that can scale from our research equipment to the industrial infrastructure that keeps African economies running pumps, turbines and power grids. Similar predictive maintenance systems are applied in industrial power plants, water utilities and aviation, reducing unplanned downtime by 20%-40%. Our adaptation for African labs and industrial systems uses low-cost Internet of Things sensors with cloud-based AI.

What did you learn from the model? Why is this useful?

The first thing I learned is that machines whisper before they scream. Long before a breakdown, they show tiny signs like slight vibrations, small voltage drops, or subtle changes in speed.

With enough data on vibration, temperature, pressure, voltage and motor load, for example, these data streams form the input for AI models. These patterns form a kind of language, and artificial intelligence becomes the translator.

By training the model on real operational data like pump vibration over time and other readings, we discovered that failures aren’t random: they follow recognisable signatures. Once the system learns these patterns, it can predict what’s coming and even suggest what to do next. The real benefit is timing, scheduling maintenance exactly when it is needed and not too early, which wastes parts and labour, and not too late (which risks catastrophic failure).

Instead of over-servicing equipment or waiting for something to fail, maintenance can happen exactly when it’s needed. That saves resources, reduces downtime and keeps operations running smoothly. And because the principle is universal, it applies just as well in factories, hospitals and water systems as it does in research labs. For example, detecting a failing motor before a line shutdown in a manufacturing plant, or ventilator sensors predicting pump failure in a hospital, or monitoring municipal pumps to prevent water shortages.

What are the practical implications of applying the model?

The practical impact is huge. Predictive systems help avoid blackouts, water shortages and unplanned shutdowns – issues that affect daily life and essential services. An example can be seen in South Africa’s blackouts: the power utility Eskom’s transformers are monitored for predictive faults. In Cape Town, predictive maintenance of water systems reduces pump downtime. They also make workplaces safer and budgets more efficient.

For African countries especially, where technical resources are often stretched, predictive maintenance is a form of resilience. It replaces firefighting with foresight. By using affordable IoT sensors (small devices collecting data like temperature), cloud-based AI (online software that analyses this data in real-time), and self-learning algorithms, maintenance becomes continuous, automated and smart.

It’s the quiet side of AI, keeping the lights on, the pumps running and the economy stable. Physics, data and engineering can quietly work together to keep important systems alive and reliable.

Edward Khomotso Nkadimeng receives funding from the National Research Foundation.

– ref. Machines whisper before they scream: we built an AI model that predicts expensive problems – https://theconversation.com/machines-whisper-before-they-scream-we-built-an-ai-model-that-predicts-expensive-problems-267070

November 27, 2025

Distance learning changes lives, but comes with its own challenges

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Ashley Gunter, Professor, University of South Africa

For students outside cities, participation in distance learning can be a lonely struggle. Tobi Oshinnaike via Unsplash

Across Africa, distance education has become one of the most powerful forces for expanding access to higher learning. Open and distance learning institutions such as the Open University of Tanzania, the Zimbabwe Open University and the National Open University of Nigeria have joined long-standing providers like the University of South Africa in offering flexible study opportunities to millions of students who would otherwise be excluded from higher education.

These institutions are reimagining what it means to go to university in contexts where geography, cost and social responsibilities often keep young people out of the classroom.

The value of distance education is undeniable. It allows working adults to continue their studies without leaving employment, gives rural youth the chance to stay in their communities while earning qualifications, and provides people with opportunities to balance learning alongside family responsibilities. During crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, distance education proved to be a lifeline when face-to-face teaching was impossible.

Across the continent, it is not simply an alternative to traditional universities; for many, it is the only route into higher education.

The World Bank has reported that only 9% of the African population in the five years after secondary school is enrolled in tertiary education – the lowest rate in the world.

My own research takes the University of South Africa (Unisa) as a case study to dig deeper into how geography and inequality shape students’ experiences of distance learning: their access, participation, and outcomes. With over 370,000 students in South Africa and other countries, Unisa is the continent’s largest provider. It’s an ideal lens through which to understand both the promise and the challenges of this educational model.

I’m a geographer with an interest in international education and economic development. For the Unisa case study, I took a qualitative research approach, interviewing 28 Unisa postgraduate students from different regions of Africa. I chose them to reflect the diversity of students enrolled at Unisa and because they already had experience of studying.

The study found that although distance education can meet educational needs where people can’t access face-to-face learning, it’s not a perfect solution. There are still challenges which make it hard for some people to study, like inadequate infrastructure (poor internet connectivity and electricity supply), financial constraints, and language and cultural barriers. There’s a need for interventions to improve the effectiveness and equity of distance education.

Experiences of distance education

My interviews with postgraduate students across Africa showed a complex picture. For the 18 students based in cities, distance education can be genuinely empowering. Internet connections, though costly, are usually accessible in cities. Electricity supply is more stable, and digital platforms are within reach. Students in urban areas spoke of the freedom and flexibility they gained, describing distance education as the only way to balance work, family life and study.

But geography matters. For students in rural or marginalised regions, participation in distance learning can become a daily struggle.

Downloading a file may take hours. Travelling long distances to internet cafés eats into scarce time and resources. A student in Zimbabwe explained how he missed deadlines simply because the university portal would not load in his village. Another said:

Some days I feel like I’m learning less and figuring out how to connect more.

Another, in Kenya, described travelling to Nairobi every two weeks to collect academic materials. She felt the sacrifice was worth it because she knew education could change her life. For others:

I begin to wonder if it’s really worth it.

These obstacles, however, underline rather than diminish the value of distance education. Students are willing to endure enormous effort and cost to access learning because they believe in its power to transform their futures. Their determination is itself evidence of the demand for and importance of this model of education.

Still, the barriers are real. High data prices, unstable internet, and unreliable electricity continue to limit access. Women in rural areas often face additional responsibilities that leave them with little time or energy to study.

It’s hard to keep up with my guy classmates who don’t face the same rules at home.

And the flexibility that makes distance education attractive can sometimes turn into a sense of isolation when students don’t have peer support.

I feel alone a lot. Even when I try to share, they don’t seem to understand what I’m facing.

Persistent inequities in distance education

Distance education can actually keep existing inequities in place, because students from wealthier, urban backgrounds are better positioned to succeed than rural students are.

My study also revealed how the realities of students’ lives not only affect their ability to use digital tools but also their sense of belonging to the academic community. There is a growing digital divide within distance education itself.

The task ahead is to make sure that these challenges do not undercut the progress distance education has already made. Over the past decade, distance education has expanded access, increased enrolment far beyond the capacity of traditional campuses, and improved the quality of digital teaching, learner support, and flexible study pathways.

Investment in affordable broadband and electricity is essential, particularly in rural and underserved regions. Financial aid needs to cover the hidden costs of learning, from devices to data. Outreach centres should be located closer to marginalised communities, and policies must explicitly address the gendered realities that shape women’s access to higher education.

Across Africa, open universities have already demonstrated how distance education can widen participation and build inclusive futures. Unisa’s story, and the experiences of its students, highlight both the opportunities and the work still to be done.

Geography continues to shape who can learn, but it does not have to decide who gets left behind. With the right investments and policies, distance education can move closer to fulfilling its full promise: to provide equitable, life-changing access to higher learning for all.

Ashley Gunter receives funding from, The Arts and Humanities Research Council UK, British Academy UK, National Research Foundation, Newton Fund UK.

– ref. Distance learning changes lives, but comes with its own challenges – https://theconversation.com/distance-learning-changes-lives-but-comes-with-its-own-challenges-266431

November 26, 2025

Thousands of criminals reoffend in South Africa – better data would show where the justice system is failing

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Marelize Isabel Schoeman, Professor, University of South Africa

In a recent statement, South Africa’s minister of correctional services said more than 18,000 parolees had reoffended in the past three years. They included 209 committing murder and 330 rape during 2024-25. This is one of the country’s most pressing justice problems, yet it remains poorly understood. It’s called recidivism: a situation where an individual who has already served a sentence commits another crime and is arrested, convicted or sentenced again.

Academic and media reports suggest that many released prisoners commit another crime and are sentenced. However, South Africa lacks a standard definition for recidivism or a consistent way to measure it. This means that no one knows the true rate. Researcher Marelize Schoeman explains why tracking recidivism matters.

Why is the definition of recidivism so important?

Recidivism is not simply reoffending. The word comes from Latin. It means “to fall back”. It describes when an individual who has already served a sentence commits another crime and is arrested, convicted or sentenced again.

A high recidivism rate, therefore, reflects not only reoffending, but the criminal justice system’s failure to rehabilitate offenders and prevent further crime.

According to academic research, South Africa’s recidivism rate ranges from 55% to 95%. Media reports claim it to be as high as 80% to 97%.

These figures, however, can only be regarded as estimates. South Africa lacks a standard definition of recidivism. This has led to researchers and criminal justice institutions – including the Department of Correctional Services, the South African Police Service and the National Prosecuting Authority – using different definitions and measurement methods. This produces inconsistent data and inaccurate recidivism statistics.

The lack of a shared definition and common understanding has resulted in recidivism being used as a buzzword. This is done to create public sensation, score political points or claim programme success without any credible or generalisable evidence.

As a result, policymakers and service providers in the criminal justice sector don’t know whether:

policing, sentencing and rehabilitation programmes are effective
correctional centres are overcrowded due to repeat offenders
parole and reintegration efforts are successful.

This absence of reliable information hampers the criminal justice system’s ability to deliver effective prevention services, support parolees after release, reduce reoffending and build safer communities.

How can South Africa better define and address the problem?

The first step is to have a uniform definition of recidivism across the criminal justice sector. Then the rate can be measured accurately. Without accurate data, resources can be wasted on crime prevention and rehabilitation programmes that do not work. Effective initiatives will remain unnoticed or underfunded. You can’t manage what you can’t measure.

The second step is to improve record-keeping and create a central digitised databank for sentenced offenders. This databank would hold key information, such as personal details, previous convictions, the nature of each offence, and other risk-related factors that could influence an offender’s rehabilitation prospects.

This information should be accessible to the prisons, police and prosecutors. The courts, parole boards and accredited rehabilitation service providers should also have access.

Currently, there is no central record system. The police service maintains all criminal record information. To obtain a person’s criminal record, a form and the individual’s fingerprints must be submitted. An official then checks the database for any previous convictions, offence details and sentencing information. This largely paper-based system is prone to delays, human error and inaccuracies.

Many offenders use aliases or do not have identity documents.

A uniform identification system, using digitally captured fingerprints or iris scans, would be a more effective way of identifying and keeping records of individuals with a criminal record.

Digitising this process has been planned since 1996, but hasn’t happened. Fragmented systems, weak accountability, outdated infrastructure, governance bottlenecks and late deliveries have delayed it.

What difference will the database make?

Making these improvements would change how South Africa measures, understands and manages recidivism. A uniform definition would replace guesswork and political rhetoric with a clear, evidence-based standard.

Policymakers, researchers and practitioners could use a common language to make comparisons and coordinate strategies.

The focus could shift from viewing recidivism merely as individuals reoffending, to the criminal justice system’s effectiveness in breaking the cycle of crime.

A centralised, digitised offender database would reduce human error and improve data reliability, making it possible to identify and do what works.

Public trust in the criminal justice sector might improve, enhancing rehabilitation outcomes and building safer communities.

What countries have cracked this?

Countries like the United Kingdom, Norway, Finland and Sweden, Canada, New Zealand and Singapore have adopted a uniform definition of recidivism. They use it to measure the performance of their criminal justice systems.

The effectiveness of these steps is clear in Norway and Singapore. The two countries have some of the lowest recidivism rates in the world at 20% and 21%, respectively. The UK’s recidivism rates have declined from 31.6% in 2010 to 26.5% in 2023. In New Zealand, performance data is used to target high-risk groups and strengthen rehabilitation efforts.

These countries use biometric databases in law enforcement and correctional facilities. The databases help to identify offenders, track parolees and manage prisons. Authorities can identify ex-offenders who commit new crimes.

Recidivism statistics are also used as key performance indicators across the criminal justice system. They guide funding and programme development.

In South Africa, a review of the parole board system which began in September 2025 offers the Department of Correctional Services an opportunity to define what recidivism means.

This step could create the basis for developing a central record system for both incarcerated offenders and those under community corrections. The system could later be expanded across the entire criminal justice network.

Marelize Isabel Schoeman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Thousands of criminals reoffend in South Africa – better data would show where the justice system is failing – https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-criminals-reoffend-in-south-africa-better-data-would-show-where-the-justice-system-is-failing-268413