Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ted Scott, PhD Student, Department of Geography – Climate and Coastal Ecosystems Group, University of British Columbia
The cumulative heat in summers is rising, meaning there is less relief from warm temperatures once summer begins.(Unsplash/Evgeniy Beloshytskiy)
Do you have the sense that summers feel different than when you were younger? That they start earlier, arrive quickly and remain intense until the fall? If you live in the mid-latitudes of either the Northern or Southern Hemispheres, chances are you answered yes.
For many, the idea of a longer and warmer summer conjures up images of spending more time at the beach, playing sports or enjoying family picnics, but there are concerning downsides. Summer is also the season of wildfires, droughts and heatwaves, like the June 2021 heat dome in the Pacific Northwest of North America.
Recent research shows that devastating heat dome event was amplified by its proximity to the summer solstice, which is the calendar start of summer, and by ground already dried out from earlier spring warmth. Earlier starts to the warmest season are making preconditions worse in areas prone to wildfire, extending fire seasons.
My colleagues and I at the University of British Columbia recently published research into how summer conditions are lasting longer and transitions into and out of summer are becoming more abrupt.
The cumulative heat in summers is rising, meaning there is less relief from warm temperatures once the season begins. Human-driven climate change is impacting the warmest season of the year. These changes challenge our expectations of the natural seasonal cycle being gradual and predictable.
To allow for a flexible definition of summer length, we defined typical summer weather based on daily average temperatures during the warmest 25 per cent of days from 1961 to 1990. This gave us a threshold daily temperature to define when summer began and ended in a given year and location.
We found that the number of days with typical summer weather has been growing 1.5 times faster over the past 30 years than in priorreports. On average, in mid-latitude regions, summers have lengthened by around six days every decade since 1990. These rates are similar across land, ocean and coastal areas.
We examined 10 cities using local weather station data, including Paris, St. Petersburg and Tokyo. A few of the cities stood out: in my hometown of Minneapolis, Minn., summertime has been lengthening by almost one additional day every year since 1990.
Toronto summers are gaining an average of eight days every decade, with summer conditions lasting four weeks longer now than in 1990. Sydney, Australia, added 1.5 additional days in each of those years. Sydney summers now last over one-third of the year.
Impacts of accumulating heat
The buildup of heat during summer is also rising quickly; it’s three times faster over land since 1990. As heat builds up in more areas, cooling demand can be expected to increase.
This change is not confined to continental interiors but is also happening in coastal areas. Perceived as favourable with their maritime climates, these areas face growing populations and often higher climate risk.
The percentage of Canadians with air conditioning varies by province and by income, but we know those who are most vulnerable struggle to stay cool.
Incentives for heat pumps will help those who can afford to make the switch, and have the benefit of also replacing natural gas heating in the winter, but regardless of cooling method, electricity needs will rise.
Longer summers and earlier starts will undoubtedly also affect agriculture, perhaps encouraging earlier planting. However, a complication is that the hours of daylight are not shifting. The impact of seasonal changes on farming practices and food supply is an active area of study.
Many other aspects of society are linked to the timing of the summer season, like the start and end of the school year, or outdoor sports. How should we adjust if it’s simply too warm for strenuous outdoor activity, whether it’s recreational or work-related?
If these trends continue, we can expect further impacts on the planting season, the timing and pace of snowmelt and the connection with water supply, the length of the fire season, and especially on the energy demand for cooling.
Governments and experts have a lot of work to do to mitigate and adapt to the consequential changes humans have brought about through our dependence on fossil fuels.
These changes to summer are noticeable because they are already disrupting lives. While some places will still occasionally have cooler years and significantly warmer years, the data tells us the trends for summers are headed in one direction.
Ted Scott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – in French – By Clotilde Policar, Professeure, directrice des études sciences à l’ENS, École normale supérieure (ENS) – PSL
Rosalind Franklin, la « dark lady » de l’ADN, mourrait le 16 avril 1958 d’un cancer de l’ovaire. Cristallographe avertie, spécialiste d’analyses de structure moléculaire, elle commence sa carrière indépendante (après sa thèse) à Paris au CNRS. Que nous apprend son histoire sur l’exclusion des femmes des carrières scientifiques ?
Dans les années 1950, une véritable course scientifique pour la découverte de la structure de l’ADN est lancée. Elle implique principalement trois équipes, celle de Linus Pauling à Caltech (États-Unis), et deux au Royaume-Uni : celle de James Watson et Francis Crick à Cambridge et celle de Maurice Wilkins du département de biophysique du King’s College à Londres dirigé par John Randall.
C’est dans ce contexte que ce dernier propose à Rosalind Franklin de monter sa propre équipe d’analyse structurale pour étudier la structure de l’ADN : l’enjeu est de taille, et Rosalind Franklin s’installe à Londres en janvier 1951. Les relations sont très vite tendues avec Maurice Wilkins, qui ne la vit pas comme une chercheuse indépendante (on dirait aujourd’hui « principal investigator »), mais plutôt comme travaillant dans son équipe, comme sa collaboratrice, voire son assistante ainsi que la désigne Watson. John Randall est probablement responsable de ne pas l’avoir accueillie dans des conditions claires pour ses collègues.
Elle travaille avec un doctorant, Raymond Gosling, et cherche à aligner les fibres d’ADN pour enregistrer des clichés de diffractions aux rayons X. Un des problèmes expérimentaux est l’existence de deux structures entremêlées dont la proportion dépend du degré d’humidité. Rosalind Franklin se propose de préparer un échantillon avec une unique structure pour avoir une image plus claire et elle y parvient. Le cliché n°51, devenu célèbre, lui permet d’obtenir, avec Raymond Gosling, la preuve expérimentale de la structure hélicoïdale. Mais ce cliché est dévoilé à James Watson par Maurice Wilkins : il lui a été transmis par Raymond Gosling, et il n’y a aucune trace d’un accord de Rosalind Franklin (ni Watson, ni Wilkins n’évoquent Franklin quand ils relatent cet échange dans leurs livres respectifs).
Ce cliché est la pierre angulaire expérimentale qui manquait aux réflexions de Watson et Crick sur la structure de l’ADN. Ils rédigent alors un article qu’ils destinent à Nature. Leur proposition a le mérite de justifier la stabilité de la structure en interaction par paires via des liaisons hydrogène : c’est important mais ne devrait pas occulter l’apport de Franklin dont le travail constitue la preuve expérimentale de la double hélice avec la présence du squelette phosphate à l’extérieur de la structure.
Les publications dans Nature
En 1953, John Randall, rencontrant l’éditeur de Nature, Lionel Brimble, apprend la publication imminente de la proposition de Watson et Crick, et il le convainc, sans évoquer celui de Franklin, de publier l’article de Wilkins, lui aussi sur la structure de l’ADN. Rosalind Franklin, déjà lassée par l’environnement peu inclusif de King’s College, est sur le départ pour aller à Birkbeck College où elle arrivera en mars 1953. Elle a déjà quasiment terminé de rédiger son propre travail sur l’ADN. Il lui fallut, apprenant que l’article de Watson et Crick et celui de Wilkins allaient être publiés, exiger elle-même, alors que l’avancée de sa recherche était parfaitement connue à King’s College, que le sien paraisse dans le même numéro.
Trois articles seront donc publiés en 1953, l’un après l’autre, sous un chapeau commun « Molecular structure of nucleic acids » : l’article de Watson et Crick, qui apparaît en premier, celui de Wilkins puis celui de Franklin. Une note de l’article de Watson et Crick indique clairement que leur proposition théorique repose sur les travaux expérimentaux, non publiés jusqu’alors, de Wilkins et de Franklin.
Remerciements de Watson et Crick article Nature. Traduction : Nous sommes très reconnaissants au Dr Jerry Donohue pour ses conseils et ses remarques constructives, notamment en ce qui concerne les distances interatomiques. Nous avons également été inspirés par la connaissance de la nature générale des résultats expérimentaux non publiés et des idées du Dr M. H. F. Wilkins, du Dr R. E. Franklin et de leurs collaborateurs au King’s College de Londres. L’un d’entre nous (J.D.W.) a bénéficié d’une bourse de la Fondation nationale pour la paralysie infantile.
Aujourd’hui, les canons d’un article scientifique veulent qu’on décrive tout d’abord les résultats « bruts », expérimentaux, qui sont analysés, décodés, pour amener à une discussion plus théorique des implications de ce qui a été mis au jour. Ici, l’éditeur a mis l’article théorique devant les deux articles expérimentaux. Certes sous un chapeau commun « Molecular structure of DNA », mais qui, aujourd’hui, est uniquement référencé (Web of science fin 2025) comme lié à l’article de Watson et Crick ! C’est sans doute, justement, parce qu’il est le premier de la série de trois. N’aurait-on pas pu imaginer un unique article avec les contributions expérimentales appuyant la proposition théorique ?
Est-ce important ? Il semble que oui : même si les nombres de citations doivent être manipulés avec précaution, on doit constater que le premier article, celui de Watson et Crick, est cité plus de 12 000 fois, alors que celui de Franklin et Gosling, ca. 1140 fois et celui de Wilkins, Stokes et Wilson ca. 740 fois (chiffres issus du site Web of science fin 2025).
Le Nobel : les femmes oubliées
On dit souvent que Rosalind Franklin n’a pas pu avoir le prix Nobel avec Watson, Crick et Wilkins en 1962 car il n’est pas décerné à titre posthume. Mais, on oublie alors que la règle qui l’interdit date de 1974. Avant 1962, au moins deux prix Nobel ont été attribués à titre posthume (Erik Axel Karlfeldt en 1931 et Dag Hammarskjöld en 1961). Mais voilà, il y a trois lauréats au prix de 1962, nombre maximal pour un prix Nobel, et Rosalind Franklin a été le « quatrième homme » (!), comme ce fut le cas de Jocelyn Bell, découvreuse des pulsars ou de Lise Meitner pour la fission nucléaire. Alors que le prix Nobel n’affiche qu’un peu plus de 6 % de lauréates, beaucoup sont citées comme étant sur cette « quatrième » marche !
Rosalind Franklin a été systématiquement écartée d’un réseau d’échanges (y compris d’échange de données, celles du cliché 51) et de discussions dans un environnement fortement sexiste. Par exemple, le salon des enseignants-chercheurs à King’s College est à l’époque interdit aux femmes. Or, ces endroits permettent des rencontres informelles cruciales dans les rapports entre scientifiques.
« Malheureusement, cela reste vrai : le titre d’un article publié dans Nature (en 2022) « Les femmes sont moins reconnues que les hommes dans le domaine scientifique », en dit long. La diversité, l’équité et l’inclusion sont des concepts que certains considèrent encore comme des modes passagères et comme un anathème pour la « bonne » science. L’histoire de l’ADN prouve pourtant qu’ils sont les fondements d’une collaboration fructueuse et du progrès scientifique ».
Une exclusion insidieuse pérenne : que faire ?
Il est important de faire évoluer le vocabulaire : pourquoi ne pas choisir de parler de la « double hélice de Franklin, Watson et Crick » ? Et surtout il faudrait raconter cette histoire, en cours à l’école, au lycée, à l’université : c’est aussi de notre responsabilité en tant qu’enseignants, enseignantes, universitaires de transmettre des messages à nos publics étudiants sur la place des femmes en sciences. S’il ne s’agit évidemment pas de taire les noms de Watson et Crick, pensons, de manière inclusive, à mentionner ceux de Franklin et des autres femmes scientifiques : Jeanne Barret en botanique, Ada Lovelace pionnière de la programmation informatique, Lise Meitner et la découverte de la fission nucléaire, Maud Menten pour les modèles cinétiques de catalyse enzymatique, Marie Tharp pour les cartes des fonds sous-marins et sa contribution à la théorie de la tectonique des plaques, Marthe Gautier dans le contexte de la découverte de l’origine chromosomique du syndrome de Down, Chien-Shiung Wu pour ses études sur les interactions faibles, Jocelyn Bell pour les pulsars, et toutes les autres…
Les oublier, c’est ancrer chez les jeunes femmes l’idée que le monde de la science est fait pour les hommes et les en exclure : c’est le mécanisme aujourd’hui bien connu de la menace du stéréotype, concept proposé en 1995 par Claude Steele et Joshua Aronson : le stéréotype (par exemple, « les femmes sont moins douées que les hommes en sciences », « les garçons sont moins doués que les filles en dessin »), même s’il est sans fondement biologique, induit chez celles et ceux qui le connaissent, et particulièrement qui en sont victimes, un comportement qui le confirme.
Comme Rosalind Franklin, les femmes sont toujours partiellement exclues des lieux de sciences et des lieux de pouvoir scientifique mais c’est plus subtil qu’une salle des professeurs exclusivement masculine comme c’était le cas à King’s College. Le film Picture a Scientist notamment nous en montre des exemples : parcours de recrutement puis de carrière plus difficiles, espaces de travail plus réduits, parole non entendue, efforts plus importants demandés aux femmes, ou même réflexions faites sur les tenues vestimentaires…
Il faut en parler et promouvoir le recueil de données genrées pour permettre l’identification de ces biais, prérequis à leur prise en compte et aux actions pour les contrer. Si c’est souvent fait pour documenter les effets de genre sur les recrutements (et vérifier que les processus sont vertueux), cela n’est pas ou peu le cas pour les conditions de travail (soutien aux activités des femmes, allocations d’espace de travail, bureaux partagés ou non, contributions aux tâches collectives, sursollicitation singulièrement pour des tâches peu gratifiantes pour la carrière en lien avec l’exigence de quotas…). Ne faut-il pas envisager, le temps que la parité devienne effective, des mesures compensatoires pour que les femmes ne soient pas pénalisées dans les carrières scientifiques ? On pourrait penser à renforcer les aides au moment du congé maternité par exemple : sans défavoriser les collègues masculins, cela contribuerait à rendre, par là même, ces carrières plus accueillantes pour les jeunes filles. Car, aujourd’hui plus que jamais, face aux défis qui menacent notre planète, nous avons besoin de tous les cerveaux pour trouver des solutions et on ne peut pas se permettre d’exclure de facto la moitié de la population ! Beaucoup de chemin reste à parcourir pour une société scientifique plus juste et plus efficace !
Je remercie vivement Sophie Vriz d’avoir attiré mon attention sur la note de Watson et Crick dans l’article de 1953, Elisabeth Bouchaud de m’avoir signalé que l’interdiction des prix Nobel posthumes date de 1974 et pour sa magnifique série de pièces de théâtre « Les Fabuleuses » à la Reine Blanche, Dominique Guianvarc’h de m’avoir signalé le nom “dark lady” de l’ADN, et à toutes celles et tous ceux qui, comme Bernold Hasenknopf, systématiquement, chaque année, citent les femmes scientifiques dans leurs cours.
Clotilde Policar ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.
Les êtres humains ont toujours eu le goût du jeu. Mais pendant la majeure partie de notre histoire, le jeu n’a laissé que peu de traces. Contrairement aux outils ou aux ossements, les jeux se conservent rarement, et les plaisirs éphémères qu’ils procurent sont encore plus difficiles à retrouver.
La récente découverte de dés vieux de 12 000 ans, publiée dans American Antiquity, apporte un nouvel éclairage sur le caractère ludique des sociétés humaines dans un passé lointain.
L’archéologue Richard J. Madden a identifié 565 dés provenant de sites à travers l’Amérique du Nord, notamment dans le Wyoming, le Colorado et le Nouveau-Mexique. Ils datent du XIXe siècle et remontent jusqu’à 12 000 ans. La reconnaissance de ces artefacts comme étant des dés repousse de plusieurs milliers d’années les preuves matérielles du jeu chez l’homme, à travers ce que Madden interprète comme des preuves de jeux de hasard et de paris. Il estime que les Amérindiens jouaient aux dés 6 000 ans avant tout le monde.
Pour identifier ces objets comme des dés, Madden a rassemblé des données sur des objets comparables issues de publications archéologiques et de bases de données sur les vestiges, en s’appuyant sur une étude antérieure exhaustive des objets de jeu amérindiens.
Des dés binaires
Ces objets ne ressemblent pas aux dés à six faces que nous utilisons aujourd’hui. Il s’agit plutôt de dés binaires : des pièces plates, rondes ou rectangulaires marquées d’un côté et vierges de l’autre. Si vous êtes un fan de Donjons et Dragons comme nous, vous pourriez appeler un tel dispositif de lancer un d2. En effet, on peut comparer le lancer de l’un de ces dés anciens à un tirage au sort avec une pièce de monnaie – bien que cette découverte souligne également que les dés sont bien plus anciens que les pièces.
Richard Madden parle de sa découverte.
Lorsqu’on évalue des recherches révolutionnaires de ce type, il est essentiel de réfléchir à la nature des vestiges archéologiques de ce passé très lointain. Nous dépendons d’un éventail très limité d’objets, car beaucoup ne survivent pas dans le sol. Souvent, lorsque nous jouons, même aujourd’hui, nous n’utilisons aucun objet matériel. Pensez à un jeu de chat ou de cache-cache. Imaginez maintenant un jeu similaire se déroulant il y a 12 000 ans. Un archéologue pourrait-il jamais en trouver des traces ?
Même lorsque le jeu nécessite du matériel, comme dans les jeux de société, les traces ne sont souvent pas conservées.
En effet, des études ethnographiques des études ont montré que les gens jouent fréquemment à des jeux de société d’une manière qui ne laisse aucune trace archéologique. Pour de nombreux jeux, les gens creusent des trous et tracent des lignes au sol pour le transformer en plateau, et utilisent des pierres, des graines, des coquillages et même des excréments d’animaux séchés comme pions.
Les objets naturels font également l’affaire : des bâtons à deux extrémités et des cauris (coquillages) peuvent servir de dés binaires. Ce n’est pas seulement une pratique du passé ou propre à des contrées lointaines : partout dans le monde, on joue chaque jour en utilisant de manière créative toutes sortes d’objets – bouchons de bouteille, boîtes de conserve, ficelle, bâtons, cailloux et autres bricoles – qui ne sont pas facilement identifiables comme des jouets. C’est pourquoi, pour nous, archéologues qui étudions le jeu, les dés constituent des découvertes spéciales, car ce sont sans ambiguïté des outils qui servent à jouer.
Les dés anciens
Les archéologues trouvent des dés plus souvent que vous ne le pensez, sous toutes sortes de formes intéressantes. L’un des exemples les plus célèbres est celui des os astragales, les os de la cheville d’animaux à sabots (principalement des moutons et des chèvres). Ils possèdent quatre faces distinctes et ont été couramment utilisés comme dés.
L’un des jeux les plus anciens de l’histoire de l’humanité, le jeu des 20 cases (une version ultérieure du Jeu royal d’Ur), est connu pour avoir utilisé de tels dés, car des os d’astragale ont été retrouvés dans les tiroirs des boîtes de jeu. Dans de nombreux cas, plutôt que de prélever ces os sur des animaux abattus, les gens les reproduisaient dans d’autres matériaux tels que la pierre, le verre ou le métal. Des exemplaires en ivoire ont été découverts avec les jeux qui se trouvaient dans la tombe égyptienne de Toutankhamon. Cela suggère que les gens n’ont commencé à fabriquer des objets ressemblant à des dés qu’après avoir déjà utilisé des objets naturels adaptés à ce même usage.
Dans son étude, Madden soutient que les dés témoignent d’une évolution continue des jeux qui impliquent une dimension économique. Nous souhaitons orienter ce débat dans une autre direction. Le jeu existe en dehors du cadre des jeux d’argent ou des jeux qui impliquent des transactions, et l’analyse contextuelle nécessaire pour identifier véritablement le jeu d’argent dans le passé fait défaut dans cette étude. De plus, cette étude aborde le jeu exclusivement sous un angle fonctionnaliste, en particulier à travers des cadres évolutifs et économiques.
Nous avons fait valoir ailleurs que des études comme celles-ci tiennent rarement compte d’un point fondamental : le jeu existe souvent pour le seul plaisir de jouer. Parfois, on lance la pièce pour gagner, mais souvent, on la lance juste pour s’amuser.
Bien que nous ne soyons pas convaincus que ces anciens peuples amérindiens géraient des réseaux de jeux d’argent, il s’agit d’une découverte passionnante. Ce que ces dés, ainsi que d’autres trouvés dans des contextes archéologiques à travers le monde, mettent en évidence, c’est la beauté fascinante du jeu, aujourd’hui comme par le passé. Ainsi, la prochaine fois que vous lancerez des dés, sachez que vous participez au même esprit ludique – le suspense, la joie, la déception d’un mauvais lancer – que celui que ressentaient déjà les gens il y a 12 000 ans.
Aris Politopoulos a reçu des financements au titre de la subvention de démarrage « Archaeological Futures » et du prix Ammodo Science Award for Groundbreaking Research pour le projet Past♥Play. Aria est membre du conseil d’administration de la fondation Stichting VALUE.
Angus Mol a reçu des financements du Conseil néerlandais de la recherche (NWO) dans le cadre de la bourse NWO-VIDI « Playful Time Machines » et du prix Ammodo pour la recherche scientifique novatrice, pour le projet Past♥Play. Il est membre du conseil d’administration de la fondation VALUE.
Walter Crist a reçu des financements du programme COST (Coopération européenne en science et technologie) pour le projet GameTable : Techniques informatiques pour le patrimoine des jeux de société, et de Game-in-Lab pour le projet « Play and the City » : Étude du patrimoine culturel des jeux de la ville de Rome. Il siège au conseil d’administration de l’Institut chypriote-américain de recherche archéologique (CAARI).
The opening headlines from the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing signal an openness on the Chinese side towards stabilising relations with the US. In his opening remarks, the Chinese president noted that China and the US “should be partners not rivals”. But he warned Trump that a crisis over Taiwan could lead to “clashes and even conflicts”.
With Xi also indicating that there will be more opportunities for US companies to do business in China, the stage is set for a relatively successful summit. Both sides can claim it as a success because it offers some concrete benefits in the form of a trade war avoided and at least the prospect of cooperation on global issues such as the Iran war. It also sets a generally more positive tone for relations between the two countries.
Such an outcome is particularly troubling for Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, who will see his relevance and leverage diminished by more stable and predictable US-China relations. Putin’s aspirations to position Russia as a great power depend on Moscow either being strategically useful to Washington and Beijing, or gaining leverage with them by demonstrating a capacity to be disruptive.
However, on both counts, Putin’s hand has been substantially weakened. His war against Ukraine is no longer a priority issue for the US, with the two main American interlocutors in peace talks, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, focused on negotiations with Iran.
Putin’s latest phone call with Trump on April 29 will have been disappointing for the Russian leader. His offer to take Iran’s highly enriched uranium to Russia was reportedly rebuffed by Trump, who told him to focus on “ending the war with Ukraine”. And days later the Kremlin was forced to scale back its annual military parade in Moscow, due to concerns that it could be targeted by Ukrainian forces.
On the Chinese side, things are possibly even more troubling. The last face-to-face meeting between Xi and Putin took place in September 2025. They have only held one video conference since then. A Kremlin statement during the Trump-Xi summit that Putin will visit China soon smacks more of desperation than confirmation.
Putin’s leverage
While Putin appears sidelined in the US-China relationship, he is not without cards of his own. Major global issues – including wars in Ukraine and Iran, energy security and the future of the international order – are still connected to Russia. This provides Putin with a degree of leverage in his relations with both Xi and Trump.
But exercising this leverage comes with significant risks, especially in areas where Chinese and US interests are more aligned with each other than with Russia. Take the case of the Iran war as an example.
Russia benefits most from this conflict continuing. The disruption it is causing to global energy flows has pushed up oil and gas prices, keeping Moscow’s war economy afloat. It has also reduced the flow of US arms to Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, therefore, Russia has expanded its support for Iran – from intelligence and cyber support to providing unjammable drones.
While Russian support is unlikely to enable Iran to win the war, it will give the regime in Tehran more time to avoid defeat and increase the costs for the US, its regional allies and the global economy. This is not going to play well with Trump, who is under mounting domestic pressure to wind down the war in Iran.
Beijing has offered Iran some support throughout the war, for example by helping it bypass western sanctions on the export of its oil. But there are clear limits to how far China will go. For China, its relationship with the US is far more important than the one with Iran. This tilts the balance of preferences in Beijing towards an end of the conflict rather than towards its continuation.
This does not mean that China and the US will now align against Russia. Relations between Russia and China are longstanding and deep across a range of issues. Their “no-limits partnership” may be increasingly asymmetric, but there is still a great deal of anti-American and anti-western alignment between them.
The US under Trump is also more ambivalent about its stance on Russia than under previous administrations. Trump’s transactional foreign policy – and his urge to make deals rather than pursue a consistent strategy – is something Russia will continue to try to leverage to its own advantage.
Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov released a statement in which he said “the path to the implementation of a whole range of economic projects will be open” if the White House agrees to decouple trade from the war in Ukraine. This indicates that Moscow is fully aware of this opportunity – as well as the challenge to offer the US something China cannot.
The Xi-Trump summit is a party to which Putin was not invited. The fact that the US and China seem to be heading towards a period of better-managed relations indicates that his efforts to make his presence felt have largely failed. This does not bode well for his aspirations to restore Russia to its Soviet-era status as a great power – but it does not imply that he will give up.
Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robin Hankin, Senior Lecturer in Applied Statistics, Department of Mathematics, University of Stirling
Georgia’s entry Circus Mircus during the controversial second semi-final of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest.Michael Doherty/Wikimedia, CC BY-NC-SA
The Eurovision Song Contest was founded 70 years ago as a way for Europe, divided after war, to come together by celebrating its music. Every year, several dozen countries across the continent – and, more recently, far beyond – compete in what is considered the world’s most viewed non-sporting event.
As a cultural institution that last year attracted around 166 million viewers, the results of Eurovision have a big impact – not least by deciding the venue of the following year’s event. Yet the issue of bloc voting, where countries tend to vote more favourably within regional or cultural blocs, has long been a controversial aspect of the contest.
In 2008, the BBC’s Eurovision commentator Terry Wogan spoke out against bloc voting by Eastern European countries, saying: “You have to say that this is no longer a music contest. I have to decide whether I want to do this again.” He didn’t – it was his final show in the commentary hotseat.
On occasion, suspiciously friendly voting has strayed into something even more troubling. The 1968 contest, held at the Royal Albert Hall in London, saw a major upset when home favourite Congratulations, sung by Cliff Richard, was pipped by the Spanish entry La, La, La.
Forty years later, Spanish Eurovision host Jose Maria Inigo claimed that the vote had been rigged at the behest of Spain’s military dictator, Franco. His claims were later supported by an Irish TV investigation.
The modern, expanded Eurovision features two semi-finals as well as the grand final, held this year in Vienna on May 16. Its scoring combines a jury panel with a public vote, reducing the impact of each jury. But that didn’t stop another major voting scandal emerging in 2022.
The 2022 scandal
During the 2022 grand final in Turin, Italy, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) announced that six juries’ scores from the second semi-final – Azerbaijan, Georgia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and San Marino – had been nullified after “certain irregular voting patterns were identified in the results of [these] countries”.
The countries’ votes were replaced with an aggregate score “based on the results of other countries with similar voting records” for both the semi-final and grand final. This process was acknowledged by Eurovision’s Independent Voting Monitor.
The countries’broadcasters strongly denied any wrongdoing, with Georgia even suggesting their first-place vote in the final had been wrongly allocated as a result of the imposed system. Among online audiences, there was immediate speculation of a cover-up. After the final, the EBU issued a long explanation for their decision.
So had there really been collusion? Colleagues and I from the University of Stirling, including Riley Uttley, have re-assessed the 2022 voting scandal using applied statistical methods.
Each five-member Eurovision jury selected their ten favourite songs, with 12 points going to their favourite, ten points for second, then eight down to one for their tenth-best song. A similar points system was used to reflect each country’s public vote, doubling the total number of votes awarded by each country.
The jury results prior to the EBU’s intervention are shown below. The six juries whose scores were nullified – marked in red – awarded each other a total of 251 points. This is just seven points shy of the absolute maximum they could have given each other: 6 x (12+10+8+7+6) = 258 points.
Eurovision jury scores, 2022 second semi-final
Scores in red were later nullified. Points include three non-competing juries: Germany, Spain and UK. Robin Hankin, CC BY
If the scores were allocated randomly, the odds of the six countries awarding each other 251 points would be less than 1 in 10,000. Such a low probability provides strong objective evidence that the six juries were indeed colluding.
Say we have two songs, a and b, and want to know the probability that a is judged better than b. Using the BT method, this probability is:
p(a) / p(a) + p(b)
where p(a) and p(b) are the respective strengths of the two songs.
This idea can be extended to the ranking of any number of songs. If we observe, say, that a ≻ b ≻ c ≻ d ≻ e (that is, song a is the best, then b, down to e), the probability of this voting decision is:
This is known as a Plackett-Luce likelihood function. While calculating each value is difficult, we can use standard optimisation techniques to maximise this probability, and thereby estimate the strengths of the songs.
When it comes to identifying the strength of collusion in the 2022 contest, my own technique known as reified Bradley-Terry can be applied to this likelihood function.
The unfair advantage of collusion is represented by adding an extra strength term to any competitor who benefitted from collusion. In the equation below, S represents the strength of the collusion effect, and is applied to song b. So, we replace every occurrence of p(b) with p(b)+S. Then, the probability of a ≻ b ≻ c ≻ d ≻ e is now:
The Eurovision 2022 semifinal had 18 songs and 21 juries, leading to a probability equation like the one above – but with a total of 220 terms. While this is a lot for a person to work with, it can be easily handled by the R programming language, an open-source statistical tool designed to handle masses of data and produce graphics and visualisations.
The removed juries all appeared to have very similar behaviour, so we represented the strength of the collusion of all six as a single number S, which we calculated to be 0.262. We then calculated the probability of S being as high, or higher, than this value on the assumption of no collusion.
We calculated this probability to be one in 58,000. Put another way, if you have 2.5km of matchsticks laid out end-to-end and burn one, it’s the probability of picking the burnt one. We can, therefore, confidently conclude that collusion did take place.
The 2026 voting system explained. Video: Eurovision Song Contest.
A final quirk
The 2022 Eurovision voting scandal had ramifications beyond the nullification of the six collusive scores. Jury voting for semi-finals was discontinued from 2023 until this year’s contest. Perhaps perversely, this made the juries carry more weight in each grand final.
With the semi-finals decided purely by public votes, which tend to be more dispersed and unpredictable, this meant the juries’ more concentrated voting patterns played a more significant role in deciding the ultimate winner.
Jury voting was reinstated for the semi-finals of this year’s contest. However, the juries are larger (seven members rather than five) and chosen from a more diverse background.
The clear favourites, Finland, will hope this is another step towards eradicating the controversial voting patterns that have haunted past contests – and made Eurovision a focus of keen interest for some applied statisticians.
Robin Hankin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Cushion, Professor, Cardiff School of Journalism, Media and Culture, Cardiff University
Even before votes were counted in this year’s Senedd (Welsh parliament) election, speculation among commentators was rife that one campaign narrative had firmly taken hold – that the contest had become a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
Both parties promoted that framing during the campaign, urging voters to see the election as a straight choice between them. In the aftermath of the result – and Labour’s losses – attention quickly turned to whether the media had amplified that message, including criticism by a Labour Senedd member who refused to talk to ITV News because of its coverage.
Clearly the media were not solely to blame for Labour’s decline. However, our analysis of election coverage found that more than one in four TV news items featured an opinion poll, often framing the contest as a battle between two parties. On UK-wide flagship bulletins, that figure rose to more than half. In the final week of the campaign, almost half of all TV news items referenced a poll.
A binary choice?
From the outset, Plaid Cymru and Reform used campaign slogans that presented the election as a direct battle between the two parties. The implication was that voters should back one of the frontrunners rather than waste their vote on other parties.
That framing carried particular significance because this election was held under a new proportional voting system. Unlike Westminster’s first-past-the-post model, proportional systems are designed to produce representation for multiple parties. Seats are allocated according to vote share. Because of this system, the election couldn’t have been further from a two-horse race.
Stronger performances by Labour, the Conservatives, Greens or the Liberal Democrats could have translated into representation in the Senedd.
But public understanding of the new system remained limited throughout the campaign. Surveys conducted before and during the election suggested widespread confusion about how votes would translate into seats, alongside misinformation about tactical voting.
Whether the two-horse race narrative actually changed voting behaviour remains difficult to determine. Post-election research will need to assess whether voters acted tactically, misunderstood the electoral system, or were influenced by campaign messaging and media coverage.
Research has long suggested that heavy reporting of opinion polls can contribute to a “bandwagon effect”. This is where voters gravitate towards parties perceived to be gaining momentum.
Horse race dominated campaign coverage
As part of our election media analysis project, we tracked all election news coverage across both UK-wide and Welsh broadcasters between April 8 and May 6. This included flagship TV news bulletins on the BBC, ITV and Channel 4. We also looked at online news articles from BBC Wales, ITV Wales, S4C and Sky News, and social media content produced by these outlets.
Our previous analysis
found that broadcasters produced many explainers during the campaign. These included videos outlining how the D’Hondt proportional voting system works.
But in day-to-day reporting, explanations of how votes translated into seats were far less common than stories about which parties were rising or falling in the polls. Instead, coverage increasingly focused on the electoral horse race, particularly in the final stretch of the campaign.
TV news items to feature opinion polls in the Senedd election campaign. Cardiff University, AHRC, CC BY
Seat projections also became more prominent as polling day approached. Although not always included alongside polls, they shaped reporting in the campaign’s final days across television, online coverage and social media. This included ten online items in the final week, four on social media and two on TV news.
Because Plaid Cymru and Reform were leading many of the polls, coverage often centred on those two parties. On May 5, for example, ITV News’ Wales at Six programme opened by reporting that Plaid Cymru was surging ahead of Reform in the broadcaster’s latest poll.
As polls increasingly drove coverage, the election itself came to be narrated as a contest between two parties competing for victory.
Did coverage squeeze out other parties?
The prominence of polling and seat projections inevitably reduced attention on other parties and on the broader dynamics of proportional representation.
It’s questionable whether broadcasters should have amplified campaign messaging that framed the election as a binary contest. After all, without understanding the proportional voting system, people may not have appreciated that it is designed to represent a range of parties rather than produce a winner‑takes‑all outcome.
At the same time, it is important to recognise the difficulty of isolating media influence. Broadcasters were largely reporting representative opinion polls that, in many cases, accurately reflected the final outcome. But our analysis suggests that, in the final week especially, the campaign was increasingly understood through the language of momentum, winners and losers.
That approach undoubtedly added drama and urgency to coverage. But it also risked diverting attention away from policy debates and from the realities of a proportional political system designed to produce a more representative mix of parties in the Senedd.
Stephen Cushion has received funding from the BBC Trust, Ofcom, AHRC, BA, ESRC and Welsh Government.
Keighley Perkins receives funding from AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.
Maxwell Modell receives funding from the AHRC for research into broadcasters’ impartiality.
I can only marvel when I consider that the footprint upon which the newly erected V&A East museum now stands was, for many decades, characterised by hard labour and heavy industry.
The area, once full of factories, warehouses and poverty, was described by novelists such as Charles Dickens in deeply unflattering terms. In 1857, he wrote: “Many select such a dwelling place because they are already based below the point of enmity to filth: poorer labourers live there, because they cannot afford to go further, and there become debased.”
Today, however, this once-defamed part of east London, has been transformed into a place of culture, leisure, artistry and creativity. The opening of V&A East exemplifies this shift. Its director, Gus Casely-Hayford, describes the institution as a platform for young Britons, regardless of background or origin, to craft their own destiny.
The inaugural display at the museum is the alluring exhibition The Music Is Black: A British Story, which celebrates 125 years of Black British music.
Director of the V&A East, Gus Casely-Hayford, introduces the museum and exhibition.
The exhibition covers the period from 1900 to 2025 and is divided into four significant historical moments: chattel enslavement, the Black Atlantic, New Commonwealth migration and the dynamic identity formation of so-called Black British culture. Entrenched within this historical timeline are the related themes of religion, class, location, power, gender and, of course, race.
Importantly, this is not a “kitchen sink” exhibition in which items are thrown together. Instead, it is carefully crafted, considered and curated. It is little wonder that the exhibition took over four years to complete. It comprises more than 200 artefacts, including outfits, sheet music, artwork, instruments and rare cinematic footage. These are underscored by a carefully designed soundscape delivered through headsets given to attendees, making navigation through the exhibition a fully immersive experience.
Inside the exhibition
Among my favourite pieces was Natty Bongo, a bronze sculpture created by Fowokan George Kelly of the British funk band Cymande. I was also drawn to the “other” piano owned by Winifred Atwell, the first Black British woman to top the charts with the ragtime hit Let’s Have Another Party in 1954.
Equally interesting were sound system operator and record producer, Sir Lloyd Coxsone’s record box and an extraordinary photograph by Charlie Phillips of activist Kwame Ture at the Cue Club in 1967.
I also thought the correspondence between Renaissance man Paul Robeson and British opera singer Amanda Aldridge was a worthy inclusion. Another significant moment is the official statement from Buckingham Palace confirming the appointment of composer Errollyn Wallen as Master of the King’s Music in 2024.
Some of the exhibition’s most striking artefacts include the “clit rock” outfit worn by Skunk Anansie as she became the first Black British woman to headline the Glastonbury Festival in 1999. Equally compelling is the juxtaposition between an ancient musical bow made from a calabash shell and modern instruments such as the Oberheim DMX sampling drum machine and the Roland JD-800 synthesizer.
Also on display is one of Shirley Bassey’s iconic outfits, celebrating her contribution to the sound of the James Bond franchise through Goldfinger in 1964.
The exhibition concludes by presenting the most recent and globally recognised form of Black British music: grime, which draws upon many of the musical traditions that preceded it. As my colleague and fellow sociologist Joy White recently pointed out to me, it is especially important that grime is included because it was born on the very periphery where V&A East now stands.
What the exhibition’s curator, Jacqueline Springer, does particularly well is foreground artefacts that demonstrate how Black British music has consistently functioned as a vehicle for communication. Throughout its history, it has fused spirituality and worship with resistance, rebellion and merriment. These themes, forged through the legacy of chattel enslavement, remain constant throughout the music’s development.
As a result, the exhibition becomes an emotional, multigenerational and multiracial journey that fully engages the senses of its audience. More importantly, it highlights Black British music as a vital component of British artistic and cultural life.
The Music Is Black does not claim to deliver the definitive story of Black British music. Rather, as the title itself suggests, it offers a story of Black British music – and it delivers that story with excellence, sophistication and rigour.
Kenny Monrose does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Scientists in South Korea have developed experimental contact lenses designed to send electrical signals through the retina and into brain regions linked to mood. In mice, the technology appeared to improve depression-like behaviour.
The idea sounds futuristic: a contact lens that could one day help treat depression by stimulating the brain through the eye. The work is still at a very early stage, with findings so far limited to a single mouse study.
The eye is already one of the body’s most useful access points for medical technology. Light passes through the cornea and lens before reaching the retina, which converts it into electrical signals carried to the brain through the optic nerve. Because of this close connection, researchers have spent years developing technologies that use the eye to monitor disease.
Smart contact lenses have already been designed to monitor some eye conditions, such as glaucoma. Other smart contact lenses can track pupil size as an indicator of nervous system activity, since the iris reacts to light, emotion and some drugs. And scientists have also developed experimental lenses to monitor glucose levels in people with diabetes.
The latest research attempts something different: using the eye as a route into the brain itself.
The contact lenses contain tiny electrodes that send mild electrical signals through the retina, the layer of light-sensitive tissue at the back of the eye. The researchers used a technique known as temporal interference, in which two slightly different electrical frequencies are delivered at the same time. The signals are designed so that they only become fully active where they overlap, allowing researchers to target specific brain regions linked to mood regulation.
The researchers compared the process to two weak torch beams crossing to create a brighter point where they meet. In theory, the approach could stimulate brain circuits known to be linked to depression.
The experiments were carried out in mice that had been injected with a stress hormone to create depression-like behaviour. The researchers acknowledge that this does not fully reflect human depression. Scientists also continue to debate the relationship between stress hormones and depression, with studies producing mixed results and questions remain about cause and effect.
For the study, the researchers fitted miniature contact lenses to mice with damaged photoreceptors, meaning their vision was already impaired. This was necessary because normal visual activity would interfere with the electrical signals passing through the eye. The technique, as tested, would therefore not work in animals, or people, with healthy retinas.
There are other reasons to be cautious. Human eyes constantly adjust focus by changing the shape of the lens, something mouse eyes do not do in the same way. That movement could disrupt signals delivered through a contact lens placed on the cornea.
The technology also faces practical challenges. Smart lenses need careful fitting to avoid damaging the cornea and must be kept clean to reduce the risk of infection. Any medical data they collect would also require strong safeguards.
Making the lenses is very expensive and the researchers note that the technology is not yet commercially viable on a large scale. A recent review highlighted the manufacturing difficulties involved in making smart contact lenses.
Depression itself is also difficult to model in laboratory animals. Symptoms, causes and severity vary widely between patients, making it hard to draw direct comparisons from experiments involving stressed mice raised in carefully controlled laboratory conditions.
Non-invasive brain stimulation is already an established area of medical research, and the work may help with future studies. But results from a small mouse experiment involving animals with impaired vision are still a long way from a treatment that could be used in humans.
Nonetheless, the idea of treating depression using smart contact lenses is intriguing, and this early work adds a creative new thread to the broader search for novel treatments for depression.
Barbara Pierscionek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Acheter ou louer un appartement ou une maison est sûrement une décision financière que l’on imagine fondé sur des considérations intimes. Pourtant, les décisions des individus en matière de propriété immobilière seraient influencées par des croyances culturelles héritées. En cause : le passé agricole de leurs ancêtres.
Vos ancêtres cultivaient-ils les plaines d’une région agricole européenne comme l’Ukraine ou la Beauce ? Ou élevaient-ils du bétail près de la Corne de l’Afrique ? Loin d’être anecdotique, la question à cette réponse pourrait en partie déterminer si vous êtes ou non aujourd’hui propriétaire de votre logement.
Les résultats d’une vaste étude empirique que nous avons menée indiquent, en effet, que les représentations culturelles liées à la terre et au bétail – respectivement des actifs immobiles et mobiles – se transmettent de génération en génération. Ces conceptions contribuent encore aujourd’hui à expliquer la probabilité qu’un individu devienne propriétaire. En particulier, les personnes issues de sociétés historiquement fondées sur l’agriculture céréalière sont plus susceptibles de posséder un bien immobilier que les autres.
Une décision financière importante
« Faut-il acheter une maison/un appartement ou simplement louer ? » Il s’agit sans doute de la décision financière la plus importante pour la plupart des ménages, qui choisissent ainsi de faire de leur logement (plutôt que de l’or ou des actions) leur principal actif. Au-delà des considérations économiques (comme la capacité à rembourser un crédit sur 20 ans), la propriété immobilière est aussi influencée par la manière dont les individus perçoivent la sécurité, la valeur et le statut social associés à un logement.
Or, ces préférences culturelles sont profondément enracinées : elles trouvent leur origine dans des sociétés agricoles anciennes où la richesse reposait principalement sur deux types d’actifs, l’un mobile (le bétail), l’autre immobile (la terre). Mais les champs et les troupeaux étaient bien plus que de simples actifs économiques. Ils imprégnaient la culture, à travers des mythes et d’un folklore, qui ont laissé des traces et influencent encore aujourd’hui les représentations – et, in fine, les taux de propriété immobilière.
Les individus issus de sociétés historiquement dominées par l’agriculture céréalière, où la terre était davantage valorisée que les actifs mobiles, restent enclins à privilégier les actifs immobiles et deviennent donc plus souvent propriétaires.
Le poids de l’héritage culturel
Pour étayer cette hypothèse, nous avons analysé un corpus ethnographique. Les données contenues dans une base de données mondiale relative au folklore montrent que, dans les sociétés fondées sur l’agriculture, les motifs liés à la terre sont davantage présents dans leurs récits, tandis que les sociétés pastorales mettent davantage en avant le bétail. Parmi les premières figurent la plupart des pays européens, depuis l’Antiquité grecque jusqu’au Moyen Âge, où la terre était associée au pouvoir et au prestige pendant des siècles.
On peut penser au Chat botté, où le chat rusé fait passer le fils du meunier pour un propriétaire terrien afin de lui assurer une fin heureuse. À l’inverse, dans des sociétés pastorales d’Afrique de l’Est comme celle des Nuer, les structures de pouvoir et les représentations sociales reposent sur le bétail.
Aujourd’hui, les pays occidentaux comme de nombreuses sociétés pastorales sont devenus des économies industrielles, voire post-industrielles, ayant laissé derrière eux la plupart de leurs institutions traditionnelles liées à la terre ou au bétail. Pourtant, ces héritages culturels persistent et continuent d’influencer la manière dont les sociétés perçoivent les actifs mobiles et immobiles.
Héritages persistants
L’examen des données actuelles de la zone OCDE (41 pays disposant de données homogènes) confirme largement l’hypothèse posée. Ce sont dans les pays ayant une forte tradition agricole fondée sur la terre que l’on trouve aussi aujourd’hui des taux de propriété immobilière plus élevés. L’effet est significatif : une augmentation d’un écart-type de l’importance relative des terres cultivées (par rapport aux pâturages) est associée à une hausse d’environ 6 points du taux de propriété.
Le même schéma apparaît à l’échelle régionale en Europe. Même en neutralisant les effets propres à chaque pays, les régions historiquement agricoles présentent des taux de propriété plus élevés. Ces résultats ne prouvent toutefois pas à eux seuls un lien de causalité. D’autres explications pourraient exister.
Ainsi, les représentations culturelles voyagent avec l’immigration, il faut distinguer l’influence de la culture de celle de l’expérience locale, comme les guerres, l’inflation ou d’autres facteurs pouvant aussi influencer la décision d’acheter un bien immobilier.
Le poids des cultures
Pour cela, nous avons analysé le comportement des immigrés de deuxième génération aux États-Unis. L’idée est que ces individus – un échantillon de plus de 5 000 personnes – vivent dans les mêmes institutions et le même système économique, mais héritent de cultures différentes selon le pays d’origine de leurs parents (145 pays).
Les résultats confirment notre hypothèse : les descendants de sociétés historiquement fondées sur les cultures agricoles ont une probabilité plus élevée d’être propriétaires. Ce résultat reste robuste après avoir contrôlé de nombreux facteurs tels que le revenu, l’éducation, l’origine ethnique, la localisation géographique, la situation matrimoniale ou la structure du foyer.
Pour s’assurer de la solidité de l’explication, il convient de tester des explications alternatives. Le résultat mis en évidence précédemment persiste même après la prise en compte de facteurs tels que le PIB, les inégalités, la démocratie, l’état de droit ou des indicateurs culturels plus larges.
Les données suggèrent qu’il ne s’agit pas simplement d’une « culture générale de la propriété ». Ce qui prédit la propriété chez les immigrés de deuxième génération, c’est la part de la propriété dans le pays d’origine qui s’explique par les conditions agricoles et les caractéristiques des sols. Cela renforce l’idée d’un héritage culturel spécifique lié à l’agriculture.
Vuillemey Guillaume ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.
Julius Malema, the leader of South Africa’s fourth-largest party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), is a divisive figure: loved by some, hated by others.
Malema made headlines in April 2026 after a lower court found him guilty of illegal possession and discharging of a firearm and sentenced him to five years’ imprisonment. He is appealing the conviction and sentence.
Within a few weeks he made headlines again when the country’s Constitutional Court ruled in a case the EFF had brought before it. The case was about the alleged theft of a large sum of foreign currency from President Cyril Matamela Ramaphosa’s private game farm, Phala Phala. The court found in favour of the EFF and the other party to the case, the African Transformation Movement.
Malema hails from Seshego, a small village in Limpopo, which is one of South Africa’s poorer provinces. Born in 1981, he has become something of a generational peculiarity in the body politic of the country.
The old guard of liberation fighters who were active from the 1960s and 1970s onwards continue to dominate South Africa’s political landscape. They include leaders of parties in parliament like the African National Congress (ANC), Bantu Holomisa of the United Democratic Movement, and Patricia De Lille of the Good party, among others. But Malema broke that mould.
Few South African politicians have achieved what he has.
The EFF went on to poll numbers that put it in third place in four successive elections between 2014 to 2021. In the most recent national poll in 2024, however, the party lost this spot to the former president Jacob Zuma’s new uMkhonto weSizwe Party.
Malema is a career politician who has used the political liberties bequeathed to democratic South Africa to his personal and political advantage. Yet, he continues to agitate against the emerging order, as if he himself were the victim of it, not a beneficiary high up in the distribution chain.
His skills at building a party and running a tight ship have been bolstered by his charisma and speech-making capability. But there have been controversies over showmanship and the use of divisive and incendiary speech. This has produced a complex and ambiguous public figure. And a party in flux.
The rise of a firebrand politician
Malema shot to national prominence in 2007 in the build-up to the major political upheaval of the democratic period, the 52nd conference of the ANC in the city of Polokwane. The league had assumed a kingmaker role in ANC succession battles in various times in the history of the liberation movement, helping remove president AB Xuma in 1949 and then president Thabo Mbeki through its active campaigning.
Events at the conference would change the trajectory of South Africa. Mbeki was president of the country as well as the party and was seeking a third term to run the party. His deputy in the party, Jacob Zuma, whom he had suspended as deputy president of the country, defeated Mbeki and delegates to the conference elected him to lead it.
Youth league members, including Malema, were hauled before the disciplinary structures of the ANC. According to his biographer, Fiona Forde, this was an attempt to curtail his rising influence in the party and the potential to disrupt succession.
Nonetheless, Malema’s EFF avoided the fate of quickly disintegrating, unlike other breakaway parties such as the Congress of the People.
He did this by building his party with the leaders who followed him from the Youth League. He used strong control of the party platform as its chief communicator, building a militant persona.
He has fashioned himself into a warrior figure who exploits black rage to gain popularity. The party stands for a more radical path to economic transformation in South Africa, particularly expropriation of land without compensation and nationalisation of mines.
But, as my research shows, his purpose appears less about waging a true revolutionary war and more about drawing political value from the perception that he could.
This creates a stark contradiction. Malema performs the role of a fearless revolutionary within a stable democracy that offers him all the securities and legal protections he needs to sustain this performance. Unlike those who rise against authoritarian regimes, he faces no mortal risks.
He appears to care deeply for the plight of the poor, yet his lifestyle suggests he is high up the distribution chain, with a taste for the finer things in life.
Many revolutionaries throughout history came from better backgrounds than the people they spoke for. Karl Marx, Frans Fanon, and Martin Luther King Jnr are but some of the examples. Yet few have balanced so overtly the “militant” brand with such personal comfort.
The primary mechanism for this warrior persona is a calculated mix of word, appearance and branding.
Malema uses the media and public events as a platform for his politicking. He has received significant media coverage as a result of his activities. But this hasn’t stopped him from frequently attacking the fourth estate.
In Parliament he has used disruptive tactics to draw attention to the party, even though it now only has 47 seats out of a total of 400.
An ambiguous future
Now that Malema has been convicted and sentenced to an effective five-year term in prison, he faces a turning point. He may be disqualified from serving as an MP and could even go to prison. This places the EFF into the realm of the ambiguous and uncertain.
Because the party has been held together by his firm grip, which clamped down on ambition, the EFF is not yet prepared for a succession. The potential loss of its leader leaves the “Red Berets”, and the rage they channel, in a state of flux.
The South African Communist Party has resolved to contest elections independently of the ANC. It remains to be seen how this will reconfigure left politics in terms of control over municipal councils in 2026. South Africa is scheduled to go to the polls in November 2026.
Ongama Mtimka is affiliated with the South African Association of Political Studies as the current sitting president.
