Booked to travel through the Middle East? Here’s why you shouldn’t cancel your flight

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Natasha Heap, Lecturer in Aviation, University of Southern Queensland

Travellers are being advised not to cancel their tickets for flights through the Middle East and check with their airlines, as airspace remains closed indefinitely.

If travellers cancel a ticket, they may lose some of their consumer rights and ability to claim refunds.

The US and Israeli bombing of Iran and the closure of airspace and airports is affecting all global airlines that fly through the region. The closures will have a flow-on effect, leading to significant disruption to the global airline industry that may take weeks to clear.

Tens of thousands of travellers affected

The Middle East is home to three of the world’s largest airlines: Emirates and Etihad, both in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar Airways, based in Qatar.

Over the past 20 years, the region has become the global hub of international aviation. It is not only the three airlines that call the region home that are affected by the current conflict.

Emirates has issued a notice to all passengers advising it has suspended all operations to and from Dubai until 3pm UAE time on March 2.

Passengers booked to travel on or before March 5 have two options: rebook on an alternative flight or request a refund. Etihad has issued similar advice. Qatar is referring travellers to its app.

Other carriers that fly through the region, such as Lufthansa have also issued notices to their passengers.

Virgin Australia and Qantas’ operations are not directly affected by the airspace closure. However, some passengers may be affected if travelling on partner airlines. It is essential for people due to travel to check with their airline.

Travel insurance for cancellations is unlikely to be helpful, because acts of war that disrupt travel are explicitly excluded from coverage.

It could take weeks to clear the backlog of travellers just from the past weekend. US President Donald Trump has said the operations could last for “4 weeks or less”.

Tens of thousands of travellers are stranded in the Middle East waiting for the airspace to reopen so they can continue their journey.

The General Civil Aviation Authority in the UAE announced the UAE government will bear the cost of accommodating all stranded passengers in their country. There are around 20,000 people stranded in the UAE, and many more in other countries across the region.

Plans in place to keep passengers safe

Airlines have been watching the rising tensions in the region very closely. They’re used to dealing with unexpected operational disruptions.

With the major shutdown of Middle Eastern airspace in June 2025 still fresh in people’s minds, the airlines were quick to factor that experience into their decisions this time around.

The current situation is a little different to June 2025. Following US and Israeli bombing of targets in Iran at the weekend, Iran responded with missiles and drones that hit both civilian and military targets in several countries across the region.

Dubai International Airport and Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport were both hit by drone attacks or debris. Both of these airports are for civil use. They are not military assets.

This is not the first time airports in the region have come under attack. In January 2022, Houthi forces in Yemen launched a drone attack on Abu Dhabi’s airport. Three people were killed.

The airline hubs have few alternatives

Some airlines affected by the airspace closure will be able to adjust their schedules and routes to avoid the area to try and lessen the impact both to their passengers and their business profitability.

However, the carriers that call the Middle East home have built their networks and highly profitable businesses using the hub and spoke model. They bring passengers into the hub, which is a transfer point to then fly them onward to their destinations. With the airspace closed, these airlines cannot bring passengers in or fly them out.

It would be nearly impossible for the main carriers in the Middle East to temporarily move their base of operations to another country.

They are large organisations. Emirates currently has a fleet of 261 passenger aircraft in service. Simply finding a place to park all the aeroplanes would be a significant challenge.

Complex systems within systems

Running an airline is like putting together a complex jigsaw puzzle with constantly moving pieces.

Beyond the aircraft, airlines need large teams of pilots and cabin crew, as well as extensive catering, cleaning, refuelling and maintenance operations. These systems are highly integrated and location-specific. This makes it extremely difficult to relocate or replicate them in another country at short notice.

Currently, the Middle Eastern carriers have large numbers of aircraft, crew and passengers stranded at the far reaches of their networks. For all airlines, the safety and security of their passengers and crew is their priority.

When the airspace reopens, airlines will face significant challenges to work through the backlog of stranded passengers. Extra flights and adjustments to schedules will likely be needed.

It remains unclear how long the airspace will be closed. But the airlines will already be working on plans to restore full operations quickly and safely when the time comes.

Will this latest airspace closure reduce demand for travel through the Middle East? It may in the short term. However, people will continue to travel. The Middle Eastern airline hubs are geographically located for global connectivity. The hope is the current military action and regional instability will be short-lived.

The Conversation

Natasha Heap does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Booked to travel through the Middle East? Here’s why you shouldn’t cancel your flight – https://theconversation.com/booked-to-travel-through-the-middle-east-heres-why-you-shouldnt-cancel-your-flight-277191

Does international law still matter? The strike on the girls’ school in Iran shows why we need it

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Shannon Bosch, Associate Professor (Law), Edith Cowan University

As the US and Israel began their joint assault on Iran, reports emerged from Iran that a strike hit the Shajarah Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in the southern city of Minab.

The school was reportedly packed with young pupils at the time. Iranian authorities say more than 150 people were killed, including children, and 60 more injured (these figures are yet to be independently verified).

Videos verified by international media show rescue workers digging through collapsed concrete, school bags being pulled from the debris, and scorch marks along the remaining walls.


Warning: this gallery contains graphic images.


The New York Times says it has verified videos that show the school next to a naval base belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, or IRGC, and a strike hitting that base.

Iranian representatives at the United Nations have characterised the strike as a deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and labelled it a war crime and a crime against humanity.

Neither the United States nor Israel have publicly confirmed hitting the school. The US military’s Central Command (Centcom) said:

We are aware of reports concerning civilian harm resulting from ongoing military operations. We take these reports seriously and are looking into them. The protection of civilians is of utmost importance, and we will continue to take all precautions available to minimize the risk of unintended harm.

At present, we do not have enough verified facts to reach a firm legal conclusion about what happened.

But given the questions about the legality of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran – and deeper questions about whether we’re witnessing the “death of international law” more broadly – incidents like this illustrate the continuing importance of the law, especially in times of conflict.

Which targets are protected under the law?

In armed conflict, international humanitarian law applies. International humanitarian law is built on foundational principles that must inform all decisions by armed forces concerning what they target:

  • distinction

  • proportionality

  • military necessity

And precautions must be taken to avoid incidental harm to civilians.

So what do these terms mean?

The principle of distinction requires parties to an armed conflict to always distinguish between civilian objects and military objects.

Attacks may only be directed against combatants and military objects. Civilians and civilian objects, such as schools, hospitals and public transport, are protected and may not be directly targeted.

If there is any doubt about whether a target is military or civilian in nature, it must be presumed to be civilian.

Schools are not merely buildings. They are protective spaces, and their destruction can cause immediate loss of life and long-term societal damage.

Children under 18 also enjoy special protection under international humanitarian law. They, too, may not be directly targeted.

This protection is not absolute, however. Any civilian object (including schools) can lose their protected status if they become military objectives. A school used as a military base, artillery position or command post could meet that definition.

So far, we have no evidence the school in Minab was being used for military purposes or that it was intentionally targeted.

Proportionality and precautions in attacks

What, then, if the school was not intentionally targeted, but was incidental collateral damage from an attack directed at the IRGC barracks nearby?

International humanitarian law recognises civilian objects may be affected by attacks on military objectives.

Incidental harm to civilians and civilian objects is only lawful if it satisfies the test of proportionality and military necessity under the law. All feasible precautions must also have been taken to minimise harm to civilians.

So, if a school near a military target is hit, the legality of that strike turns on whether the expected harm to children and the school was excessive compared to the military advantage gained by striking the target.

Also important: did the military commanders take all feasible precautions to assess the effect of the attack on nearby civilians or civilian infrastructure? This includes the specific weapons that are used and the timing of the attack.

Why international law matters

In recent years, we have witnessed a number of countries and their leaders openly flouting international law and the rules-based order. Yet, it would be a profound mistake to conclude that international law has ceased to matter. Even grave breaches do not negate the system itself.

As renowned American international law scholar Louis Henkin famously wrote in 1979:

Almost all nations observe almost all principles of international law and almost all of their obligations almost all of the time.

Henkin’s point was not naïve optimism. Daily compliance of international law remains the norm in diplomacy, trade, aviation, maritime navigation, treaty compliance and peaceful dispute settlement.

Violations do occur – sometimes brazenly – but they are exceptions to an overwhelmingly compliant pattern of behaviour.

The fact that some states breach foundational rules such as the prohibition on the use of force in Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter does not render international law illusory.

Rather, it underscores the importance of naming breaches for what they are and defending the legal order that most states, most of the time, continue to respect.

If the strike on the Minab school is ultimately shown to have violated the principles of distinction, proportionality and military necessity, it would not prove Henkin wrong; it would prove his point.

International law matters precisely because departures from it can be identified, judged and condemned.

The rubble of a girls’ school is not evidence that the law is meaningless; it is a stark reminder of why the law exists, and why insisting on compliance remains essential.

The Conversation

Shannon Bosch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Does international law still matter? The strike on the girls’ school in Iran shows why we need it – https://theconversation.com/does-international-law-still-matter-the-strike-on-the-girls-school-in-iran-shows-why-we-need-it-277196

The strikes on Iran show why quitting oil is more important than ever

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hussein Dia, Professor of Transport Technology and Sustainability, Swinburne University of Technology

Anton Petrus/Getty

As Israel and the United States strike Iran, global oil markets are on edge.

Oil prices have begun rising even before any disruption to supply. Oil traders are factoring in the possibility the Strait of Hormuz might close.

Roughly 20% of the world’s traded oil passes through this narrow waterway between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. One oil tanker has been bombed and traffic has all but halted. In global energy markets, the mere threat of interruption can push prices higher.

Oil isn’t like most commodities. Control of the energy-dense fuel shapes geopolitics. Three-quarters of the world’s population live in countries dependent on oil imports for cars, trucks and other uses. Controlling the flow of oil and, increasingly, gas, has long been used as leverage, from the oil shocks of the 1970s to Russia cutting European gas supplies in 2022.

Any serious disruption to tanker traffic in the Gulf would send shockwaves through global oil markets and threaten economic stability. Long queues have already been reported in Australia as motorists vie to fill up before possible price spikes.

As international tensions increase, nations from Cuba to Ukraine to Ethiopia are accelerating plans to reduce their oil dependence and boost energy security.

Half a century of oil leverage

The power of oil became obvious during the 1973 oil embargo, when major Middle East oil producers slashed supply in a bid to reshape US foreign policy. Prices quadrupled, economies stalled and energy security became a central political issue almost overnight. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have since coordinated supply to drive up prices.

Today, the mechanisms of control look different but the power created by oil dependence remains.

Even before US military action, sanctions on major producers such as Iran and Venezuela have cut supply and reshaped trade flows.

Current tensions near chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz introduce risk premiums into prices.

Oil markets are forward-looking, meaning prices reflect not only current supply and demand but expectations of what might happen next.

The strikes on Iran have seen prices of Brent crude – the global benchmark – trading around US$76 (A$107) per barrel, up from roughly US$68 (A$96) a few weeks earlier. Because prices are global, political instability anywhere can have economic consequences everywhere.

Who’s reducing dependence on oil?

In 2015, India blocked Nepal’s oil imports, triggering chaos. In response, authorities encouraged the very rapid growth of electric vehicles. Oil imports have begun to fall.

More recently, the Russia–Ukraine war and US strikes on Venezuela and Iran have brought new focus on reducing oil imports and bolstering domestic energy security.

In oil-dependent Cuba, US pressure has slashed the supply of oil. Blackouts are common and cars stay put. In response, authorities and businesses are importing 34 times as many Chinese solar panels as they did a year ago.

It’s not ideology driving this shift – it’s necessity. Electric vehicle imports, too, are soaring. “Cuba may experience the fastest energy transition in the world,” a Cuban economist told The Economist.

Why renewables change the equation

Unlike oil, solar panels and wind turbines can avoid being shipped through maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Renewables are not traded in the same globally centralised way. Power is generated locally and increasingly across many smaller sites.

Russia has long targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and power plants during the war. In response, Ukraine is ramping up renewables as fast as possible, as decentralised power generation is much harder to destroy. As a Ukrainian energy expert told Yale360, a single missile “could take out” a coal power station, while a wind farm would require 40 missiles.

Decentralised power is more resilient, meaning damage to one farm won’t collapse the grid.

Resilience through electric transport

Electrification of transport is a key plank of these new approaches to energy security.

Electric vehicles powered by locally-produced electricity reduce exposure to global oil markets. This thinking is visible in Ethiopia’s decision to ban new internal combustion cars.

China imports most of its oil – much of it from Iran. Beijing has been accelerating its rapid shift to electric vehicles. Last year, EVs made up 50% of new cars in China and 12% of the total fleet. China is increasingly using oil to make plastics, not for transport. Last year’s uptick in imports was due to stockpiling of huge volumes amid global uncertainty.

Australia’s exposure

Australia imports the vast majority of its refined fuels. We would have about a month’s worth of petrol before we ran out.

If wars drive up oil prices, pain at the petrol pump will flow through to freight costs, food prices and inflation.

While the EV shift is accelerating, Australia is slow by global standards. Even as electricity rapidly goes green, transport remains overwhelmingly dependent on foreign oil. That leaves Australia exposed.

Energy policy is security policy

Renewables do not eliminate geopolitical risk. Power grids face cyber threats. Critical mineral supply chains introduce new dependencies – and much of today’s solar panel, battery and EV manufacturing is concentrated in China.

But there is a clear structural difference. Decentralised systems are harder to manipulate through supply chokepoints. Solar panels, once installed, generate energy locally. The vulnerability shifts from ongoing fuel imports to upfront manufacturing dependence.

Oil has shaped global politics for decades because it’s transportable, globally traded and only a few countries have large reserves.

Reducing oil dependence is often framed as climate policy. But it is also vital to energy security and national security. Cutting oil use boosts resilience to shocks and reduces the leverage of other nations.

The Iran crisis may not lead to sustained price spikes. Supply may adjust. Markets may stabilise. But leaders will be rethinking the wisdom of exposure to globally traded oil in a volatile world.

The Conversation

Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Australia Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, and Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications, Sport and the Arts.

ref. The strikes on Iran show why quitting oil is more important than ever – https://theconversation.com/the-strikes-on-iran-show-why-quitting-oil-is-more-important-than-ever-277192

Les frappes américano-israéliennes contre l’Iran pourraient être un succès militaire, mais à quel prix ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

Dans le cadre de l’opération Epic Fury, Israël et les États-Unis ont lancé des opérations militaires contre l’Iran. Cette campagne aérienne semble viser trois cibles : les bases militaires et la structure de commandement, les défenses aériennes et les sites de missiles stratégiques, ainsi que les dirigeants.

Les premières attaques ont permis de tuer le guide suprême iranien, Ali Khamenei, et plusieurs membres de son gouvernement.

D’un point de vue strictement militaire, les frappes devraient être couronnées de succès. Les forces israéliennes et américaines ont rapidement établi leur supériorité aérienne sur l’Iran et neutralisé ses capacités antiaériennes.

Ces attaques surviennent à un moment où l’Iran est affaibli, tant sur le plan intérieur qu’international.

Le régime iranien ne s’est pas encore remis des manifestations de décembre et janvier, qui ont représenté le plus grand défi pour le gouvernement depuis la révolution de 1979.

Sur le plan international, les membres de « l’anneau de feu » iranien, comme les Houthis au Yémen et le Hezbollah au Liban, se trouvent dans une position vulnérable. De plus, les troubles intérieurs ont incité des gens partout dans le monde à remettre en question la légitimité du gouvernement iranien.

Néanmoins, les États-Unis et Israël ont peu de chances d’atteindre leur objectif déclaré de provoquer un changement de régime. L’histoire montre que la puissance aérienne seule ne suffit pas. En outre, même s’ils parviennent à provoquer un changement à la tête du pays, cela risque d’engendrer une situation géopolitique encore plus instable.

Escalade des tensions

Les tensions entre les États-Unis–Israël et l’Iran ne datent pas d’hier. Elles remontent à la création de la République islamique.

Cependant, ces dernières années, elles se sont considérablement intensifiées. L’attaque du Hamas contre des civils israéliens, le 7 octobre 2023, ainsi que le soutien apporté par l’Iran au Hamas et à d’autres groupes paramilitaires opposés à l’État d’Israël ont incité ce dernier à lancer des frappes de grande envergure contre des cibles iraniennes dans la région.

Ces frappes ont culminé l’année dernière avec la guerre des Douze Jours entre l’Iran et Israël, au cours de laquelle les États-Unis ont joué un rôle de soutien. Les frappes américaines et israéliennes ont infligé d’importants dommages aux infrastructures iraniennes. Cependant, elles n’ont pas permis d’atteindre l’objectif américain d’éliminer le programme nucléaire iranien, contrairement aux affirmations du président Donald Trump.

Manifestations en Iran

Dans ce contexte de tensions croissantes dans le conflit américano-israélien-iranien, la situation économique s’est détériorée en Iran, entraînant une grève des commerçants et des marchands de Téhéran. Ces protestations ont servi de déclencheur à ce qui est devenu la plus grande manifestation publique contre le régime iranien depuis la création de la République islamique.

Ce soulèvement du peuple iranien a représenté une opportunité pour les États-Unis et Israël. Le premier ministre israélien, Benyamin Nétanyahou, n’a jamais renoncé à son objectif d’assister à un changement de régime en Iran. Trump a activement encouragé les manifestants à lutter pour un renversement du gouvernement.

Les manifestants avaient toutefois besoin d’un soutien matériel que seuls les États-Unis pouvaient leur fournir. Cependant, avec les forces militaires américaines déployées dans les Caraïbes dans le cadre d’une attaque contre le Venezuela, les effectifs disponibles étaient insuffisants.

En conséquence, les États-Unis n’ont pas pu intervenir et le régime iranien a réussi à étouffer les manifestations. Le nombre total de morts causées par la répression du gouvernement est estimé à plusieurs milliers.

Les États-Unis, après avoir manqué une occasion de renverser le régime en raison de leur obsession pour le Venezuela plus tôt dans l’année, ont néanmoins poursuivi leur objectif le 28 février.

Un dénouement incertain

Israël et les États-Unis sont désormais confrontés à deux principaux défis : l’objectif déclaré de changement de régime et la stabilité à long terme de l’Iran. Non seulement le changement de régime est incertain en raison des limites d’une campagne strictement aérienne, mais l’opération pourrait même conduire à l’accession au pouvoir de forces plus radicales.

En effet, si le régime iranien est souvent assimilé à des personnalités éminentes telles que l’ayatollah, il s’agit en réalité d’un système qui ne repose pas sur un seul individu.

Contrairement à d’autres pays autoritaires où le pouvoir est détenu par des personnalités ou des familles clés, l’Iran est un État complexe doté d’une structure de gouvernance qui l’est tout autant. Au cœur de celle-ci se trouve le Corps des gardiens de la révolution islamique (CGRI). Loin d’être une simple unité militaire ou une police secrète, le CGRI est une vaste institution intégrée à la sécurité, à l’économie et à la gouvernance de l’Iran.


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C’est là que réside la différence entre « changement de régime » et « mise en place d’un régime ». Renverser les principaux dirigeants peut certes déstabiliser l’Iran et mettre d’autres personnes au pouvoir, mais cela signifie probablement que le pouvoir sera repris par des individus déjà en place. Il ne s’agit pas de simples citoyens iraniens, que Trump a exhortés à se soulever, mais de l’infrastructure imposante du Corps des gardiens de la révolution islamique (CGRI).

Le conflit pourrait se propager

Ce scénario est d’autant plus probable que l’Iran traverse une période d’instabilité depuis plusieurs semaines. Si ce n’était pas le cas, les dirigeants politiques et militaires iraniens ne considéreraient pas les attaques actuelles comme une menace pour leur pouvoir. Mais dans un contexte d’instabilité, ces dirigeants sont susceptibles de réagir avec plus de force et d’ampleur, car ils estiment que leur avenir – ou leur vie – est en péril.

Il est peu probable que le CGRI se montre plus conciliant ou plus tolérant sur le plan idéologique. En réalité, c’est plutôt le contraire qui risque de se produire.

Confronté à la menace de nouvelles attaques américano-israéliennes, ainsi qu’au mécontentement dans le pays, le CGRI pourrait agir rapidement pour consolider son pouvoir en réagissant de manière agressive. En plus d’entraîner de nombreuses pertes humaines en Iran, cette lutte pour le pouvoir pourrait provoquer une expansion du conflit à l’ensemble du Moyen-Orient.

La Conversation Canada

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. Les frappes américano-israéliennes contre l’Iran pourraient être un succès militaire, mais à quel prix ? – https://theconversation.com/les-frappes-americano-israeliennes-contre-liran-pourraient-etre-un-succes-militaire-mais-a-quel-prix-277323

What treating Kashechewan evacuees reveals about Canada’s drinking water crisis: Policy failure is an Indigenous health issue

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jamaica Cass, Director, Queen’s-Weeneebayko Health Education Partnership, Queen’s University, Ontario

When 200 people evacuated from Kashechewan First Nation arrived in Kingston, Ont. on a Sunday afternoon in January 2026 — many Elders, children and medically complex family members — the urgency was immediately clear. By the next afternoon, my colleagues from the Indigenous Interprofessional Primary Care Team and I had brought our mobile clinic to the evacuees’ hotel and were seeing patients who had been abruptly displaced by yet another failure of their community’s drinking water system.

At the same time, Kingston’s Indigenous friendship centre was organizing volunteers to lead cultural programming and create supports to help families maintain connection and dignity during displacement.

This matters because Kashechewan is not an exception. Research across Canada shows that unsafe drinking water continues to drive preventable illness, mental distress and evacuations in First Nations communities.

These events are often described as isolated emergencies or technical breakdowns. But decades of public health, engineering and Indigenous-led scholarship demonstrate that they are the predictable outcome of how water systems for First Nations have been governed, funded and maintained.

I am an Indigenous primary care physician who works with Indigenous communities, including those affected by long-standing water insecurity. What I see in Kingston closely reflects patterns documented in Canadian research.

A widespread problem in a water-rich country

Canada has one of the largest supplies of fresh water in the world, yet many First Nations communities have lived under “boil-water” or “do-not-consume” advisories for years — some for more than a decade. National analyses and community-based studies show that Indigenous households are far more likely than non-Indigenous households to lack reliable running water, particularly in remote or northern communities.

In many of these settings, water is delivered by truck and stored in household cisterns, drums or buckets. Studies led by Canadian researchers, including work in Manitoba First Nations, have shown that these systems are difficult to disinfect consistently and are far more vulnerable to bacterial contamination than piped, continuously supplied systems.

In plain terms, the way water is delivered and stored in many homes increases the risk that it becomes unsafe before it’s ever used.

What unsafe water looks like in the clinic

The health impacts of water insecurity are well documented. Reviews of Canadian studies consistently identify gastrointestinal illness — such as diarrhea and vomiting — as the most frequently reported outcome in communities with unsafe drinking water. Skin infections are also common when regular bathing and hand-washing are limited.

Research from First Nations communities in Manitoba has found that people living in homes without indoor plumbing are significantly more likely to report illness overall. That same body of work shows strong associations between indoor water access and mental health: households with reliable in-home water and sanitation report lower rates of depression and stress-related symptoms.

Mental health effects are increasingly recognized in the literature. Researchers describe “water anxiety” — the chronic stress of worrying about whether water is safe to drink, cook with or bathe in.

Qualitative and survey-based studies show this burden falls disproportionately on women, who are more likely to manage household water and caregiving responsibilities. Carrying water, hauling heavy bottles and cleaning storage containers have also been linked to back and shoulder injuries.

Among the evacuees I see in Kingston, these physical and mental health burdens are compounded by displacement itself: being far from home, separated from land and trying to manage chronic illness, educate their children and maintain professional responsibilities in crowded conditions in an unfamiliar environment.

Why these failures persist

If unsafe drinking water in First Nations communities has been so thoroughly studied, why does it continue?

One reason, consistently identified in Canadian policy and academic literature, is that water problems are framed primarily as technical failures rather than as governance failures. Responsibility for drinking water on reserves is fragmented across federal departments, leading to regulatory gaps, unclear accountability and slow responses.

Infrastructure design is another factor. Studies show that water systems in First Nations are often modelled on urban technologies that are poorly suited to remote or low-capacity settings. Even when new systems are built, chronic underfunding of operations, maintenance and operator training leaves communities vulnerable to repeated breakdowns.

Housing plays a critical role as well. Research clearly demonstrates that the absence of indoor plumbing — not just treatment plant performance — is strongly associated with illness. Yet housing and water infrastructure are frequently planned and funded separately, despite their intertwined health impacts.

Evacuation as a recurring health risk

When water systems fail, evacuation becomes the default response. For remote communities, this can involve flying hundreds of people to southern cities on short notice.

Canadian studies show that these disruptions affect schooling, employment, access to cultural practices, and family cohesion.

From a health perspective, evacuation trades one risk for another. While it may reduce immediate exposure to contaminated water, it introduces stress, disrupts continuity of care and worsens mental health outcomes, particularly for Elders, children and people with chronic disease.

What the evidence points to

Across disciplines, Canadian research converges on several findings. Long-term water safety improves when First Nations have meaningful authority over water governance and source-water protection.

Infrastructure is more reliable when systems are designed for local conditions and paired with stable funding for maintenance, training and housing upgrades, not just construction.

Importantly, Indigenous-led approaches that integrate community knowledge with engineering and public-health expertise have been shown to strengthen environmental protection and improve trust in water systems.

Back to that hotel clinic

The patients I see in Kingston are living with the downstream effects of problems that Canadian researchers and Indigenous leaders have been documenting for decades. Their illnesses were not random. They were shaped by unsafe distribution systems, chronic under-investment and governance structures that leave communities reacting to crises rather than preventing them.

Canada’s drinking water crisis reflects systemic design and governance failures, not a lack of fresh water. In a country with the capacity to ensure safe water for all, persistent water insecurity in Indigenous communities represents a preventable policy failure.

The evidence is clear: Chronic water insecurity is a manufactured driver of illness and displacement. Treating its consequences in a makeshift hotel clinic should not be routine. Ensuring safe, reliable, Indigenous-governed water should be.

The Conversation

Jamaica Cass works for Queen’s University. She receives funding from the National Circle on Indigenous Medical Education, the CPFC and the CMA. She is a board member of the Indigenous Physicians’ Association of Canada and the Medical Council of Canada.

ref. What treating Kashechewan evacuees reveals about Canada’s drinking water crisis: Policy failure is an Indigenous health issue – https://theconversation.com/what-treating-kashechewan-evacuees-reveals-about-canadas-drinking-water-crisis-policy-failure-is-an-indigenous-health-issue-274402

‘Destruction is not the same as political success’: US bombing of Iran shows little evidence of endgame strategy

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Farah N. Jan, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, University of Pennsylvania

A plume of smoke rises after a strike in Tehran on March 2, 2026. AP Photo/Mohsen Ganji

Shortly after the opening salvo of U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026 – with missiles targeting cities across the country, some of which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – President Donald Trump declared the objective was to destroy Iran’s military capabilities and give rise to a change in government.

Framing the operation as a war of liberation, Trump called on Iranians to “take over your government.”

In the first days alone, Israel dropped over 2,000 bombs on Iranian targets, equal to half the tonnage of the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict in June 2025. Heavy U.S. bombing, meanwhile, has targeted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as well as ballistic missile and aerial defense sites.

The destruction is real. But, as an international relations scholar, I know that destruction is not the same as political success. And the historical record of U.S. bombing campaigns aimed at regime change shows that the gap between the two – the point at which Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya campaigns all stalled – is where wars go to die.

Destruction is not strategy

Decades of scholarship dating back to World War I on using air power to force political change has established a consistent finding: Bombing can degrade military capacity and destroy infrastructure, but it does not produce governments more cooperative with the attacker.

Political outcomes require political processes – negotiation, institution-building, legitimate transitions of power.

Bombs cannot create any of these. Instead, what they reliably create is destruction, and destruction generates its own dynamics: rallying among the population, power vacuums, radicalization and cycles of retaliation.

The American record confirms this. In 2003, the George W. Bush administration launched “Shock and Awe” in Iraq with the explicit aim of regime change. The military objective was achieved in weeks. The political objective was never achieved at all.

The U.S. decision to disband the Iraqi army created a vacuum filled not by democratic reformers but by sectarian militias and eventually ISIS. The regime that eventually emerged was not friendly to American interests. It was deeply influenced by Iran.

In 2011, the Obama administration led a NATO air campaign in Libya that quickly expanded from civilian protection into regime change. Dictator Moammar Gadhafi was overthrown and killed.

But there was no plan for political transition. Chaos and political instability have endured since. Asked what his “worst mistake” was as president, Barack Obama said, “Probably failing to plan for the day after, what I think was the right thing to do, in intervening in Libya.” Libya remains a failed state today.

The intervention also sent a powerful signal to countries pursuing nuclear weapons: Gaddhafi had dismantled his nuclear program in 2003. Eight years later, NATO destroyed his regime.

Even Kosovo, often cited as the success story of coercive air power, undermines the case. Seventy-eight days of NATO bombing did not, by themselves, compel Slobodan Milosevic, president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, to withdraw.

What changed was the credible threat of a ground invasion combined with Russia’s withdrawal of diplomatic support. The political outcome – contested statehood, ongoing ethnic tensions – is hardly the stable governance that air power advocates promise.

The pattern is consistent: The United States repeatedly confuses its unmatched capacity to destroy from the air with the ability to dictate political outcomes.

Why this war?

The recent U.S. attacks on Iran raise a fundamental question: Why is the United States fighting this war at all?

The administration has declared regime change as its objective, justifying the campaign on the grounds of Iran’s nuclear program and missile capabilities.

But that nuclear program was being actively negotiated in Geneva days before the strikes. And Iran’s foreign minister told NBC the two sides were close to a deal. Then the bombs fell.

Iran did not attack America. And it currently does not have the capability to threaten the American homeland. What Iran challenges is Israel’s regional military dominance, and I believe it is Israel’s objective of neutralizing a rival that is driving this operation.

Israel targeted 30 senior Iranian leaders in the opening strikes. Israeli officials described it as a preemptive attack to “remove threats to the State of Israel.” I see the strategic logic for these killings as Israel’s, and Americans are absorbing the costs.

U.S. military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia have taken Iranian missile fire. American service members are in harm’s way – three have already been killed – not because Iran attacked them, but I believe because their president committed them to someone else’s war without a clear endgame.

Smoke rises from buildings.
Smoke rises from a reported Iranian strike in the area where the U.S. Embassy is located in Kuwait City on March 2, 2026.
AFP via Getty Images

Each coercive step in this conflict – from the 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal, to the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful military commander, to the June 2025 strikes – was framed as restoring leverage.

Each produced the opposite, eliminating diplomatic off-ramps, accelerating the very threats it aimed to contain.

The regime is not one man

Decapitation strikes assume that removing a leader removes the obstacle to political change. But Iran’s political system is institutional — the Guardian Council, the Assembly of Experts and the Revolutionary Guard have survived for four decades.

The system has succession mechanisms, but they were designed for orderly transitions, not for active bombardment. The group most likely to fill the vacuum is the Revolutionary Guard, whose institutional interest lies in escalation, not accommodation.

There is a deeper irony. The largest protests since 1979 swept Iran just weeks ago. A genuine domestic opposition was growing. The strikes have almost certainly destroyed that movement’s prospects.

Decades of research on rally-around-the-flag effects – the tendency of populations to unite behind their government when attacked by a foreign power – confirms that external attacks fuse regime and nation, even when citizens despise their leaders.

Iranians who were chanting “death to the dictator” are now watching foreign bombs fall on their cities during Ramadan, hearing reports of over 100 children killed in a strike on a girls school in Minab.

Trump’s call for Iranians to “seize control of your destiny” echoes a familiar pattern. In 1953, the CIA overthrew Iran’s democratically elected prime minister in the name of freedom.

That produced the Shah, the Shah’s brutal reign led to the Iranian Revolution in 1979, and the revolution produced the Islamic Republic now being bombed.

What comes next? And what guarantee is there that whatever emerges will be any friendlier to Israel or the United States?

What does success look like?

This is the question no one in Washington has answered. If the objective is regime change, who governs 92 million people after?

If the objective is stability, why are American bases across the Middle East absorbing missile fire?

There is no American theory of political endgame in Iran — only a theory of destruction. That theory has been tested in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya – and Iran itself over the preceding eight months. It has failed every time, not because of poor execution, but because the premise is flawed.

Air power can raze a government’s infrastructure. It cannot build the political order that must replace it. Iran, with its sophisticated military, near-nuclear capability, proxy networks spanning the region and a regime now martyred by foreign attack, will likely not be the exception.

U.S. law prohibits the assassination of foreign leaders, and instead Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader while American warplanes filled the skies overhead. Washington has called the result freedom at hand, but it has not answered the only question that matters: What comes next?

The Conversation

Farah N. Jan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘Destruction is not the same as political success’: US bombing of Iran shows little evidence of endgame strategy – https://theconversation.com/destruction-is-not-the-same-as-political-success-us-bombing-of-iran-shows-little-evidence-of-endgame-strategy-277201

As Canada’s Mark Carney heads to Australia, how did he become the darling of the global anti-Trump movement?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stewart Prest, Lecturer, Political Science, University of British Columbia

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is having a moment.

While every leader in the world has to grapple with the abrupt and arbitrary decision-making of United States President Donald Trump, few have had to do so with such high stakes as America’s neighbour and ostensible ally to the north.

With more than two-thirds of Canadian exports bound for the US, bilateral trade is a matter of economic life and death for Canada. Since his return to office in January 2025, Trump has made repeated references to Canada becoming America’s “51st state” in an effort to put economic and political pressure on its northern neighbour.

Despite this, Carney has met the challenge with rare candour.

In his recent speech at this year’s World Economic Forum in Switzerland, Carney gave the world a word for the transformations now underway, describing a “rupture” in the international rules-based order.

The speech was remarkable in its honesty on other fronts, as well. Effectively, Carney acknowledged what everyone knows, but no one in a position of power has previously admitted: even before Trump’s return to the White House for a second term, the US-led liberal international order was deeply unfair in its distribution of prosperity and security.

Carney’s pedigree

Why was Carney able to say what others would not, or could not, on such a high-profile stage?

In many ways, his background and present role give him unique credibility in the eyes of the wealthy and powerful who gather each year at Davos.

Born and raised in northern and western Canada, Carney’s academic and professional career played out on a larger stage. Following a PhD in economics at the University of Oxford in 1995, he pursued a career in finance and banking that took him to the heights of both the private and public financial world.

After more than a decade working at the American multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs, Carney entered Canadian public service, eventually becoming governor of the Bank of Canada in 2008 under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He went on to become the first non-British head of the Bank of England, serving in that role from 2013-2020.

His governorships coincided with tumultuous times in both countries, spanning the sub-prime financial crisis, Brexit and the early days of the COVID pandemic. While not without criticism, Carney’s performance in both countries won significant acclaim, leading to other international leadership roles.

By early 2025, Carney threw his hat in the ring to replace Canada’s beleaguered Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was trailing badly in public opinion polls. Carney won that race convincingly, and shortly after led the revived Liberals to a narrow but definitive victory over the Conservatives in a federal election in April 2025.




Read more:
Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win


The party’s stunning come-from-behind victory was fuelled significantly by Trump’s 51st state talk and other forms of coercion.

Commanding respect

Carney has a remarkable CV by any measure. He has moved from the heights of academia to business, finance and finally, government. In politics, he’s been successful in both Liberal and Conservative political environments. That broad credibility ensured that when he spoke from the podium at Davos about a rupture in an already unequal global political system, his words would be taken seriously.

Carney’s role as prime minister of Canada has also played a role in making him the poster boy of a global anti-Trump movement. Since Trump’s return to office, Canada has been on the front lines of America’s movement away from long-held alliances towards a more mercurial, coercive and even predatory foreign policy.

Trump’s penchant for insulting Canadian leaders, threatening Canadian sovereignty and weakening the Canadian economy in the service of American interests makes Canada an important test case that other American partners can learn from.

Within Canada itself, Carney is popular, though his responses to Trump have not always been without criticism. Some have pointed to a recurring gap between rhetoric and action.

Carney’s swift move to endorse the recent US attacks on Iran fit this pattern, as well. Yet, such appeasement hasn’t been rewarded with reciprocity by the Trump administration.

Seeking partners

As Carney visits the Pacific Rim, including a stop Australia, there’s no question he’s put himself — and Canada — in the global spotlight for his handling of Trump.

His speech in Davos sketched out a vision of an alternate global order that Canada and other like-minded countries might collectively pursue as a defence against the chaotic and unstable world unleashed by Canada’s former friend and ally. However, that rhetoric is not yet reality.

Accordingly, on his visit to India, Japan and Australia, Carney is looking to find partners for that vision. He’s seeking opportunities to improve relations, expand trade and cooperate on issues of Pacific security.

The old world order is not coming back. What Carney achieves in his foray to the Pacific Rim may help determine what new order, if any, emerges in its place.

The Conversation

Stewart Prest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. As Canada’s Mark Carney heads to Australia, how did he become the darling of the global anti-Trump movement? – https://theconversation.com/as-canadas-mark-carney-heads-to-australia-how-did-he-become-the-darling-of-the-global-anti-trump-movement-277039

Can the 2026 FIFA World Cup still be a force for global unity?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Paul R. Carr, Professeur/Professor (Université du Québec en Outaouais) & Titulaire/Chair, Chaire UNESCO en démocratie, citoyenneté mondiale et éducation transformatoire/ UNESCO Chair in Democracy, Global Citizenship and Transformative Education., Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO)

The FIFA Men’s World Cup will unfold across North America from June 11 to July 19, co-hosted by Canada, Mexico and the United States. This year’s event will be the largest ever, with some 48 countries represented.

The FIFA 2026 World Cup was awarded in 2018 and preparations have been ongoing ever since. However, the U.S. has significantly altered course since the election of Donald Trump in January 2025.

The international community is facing an onslaught of actions, threats and rhetoric from the U.S. government, which has led to chaos, confusion, instability and massive political, economic and sociocultural vulnerability.

As a result, calls have emerged to boycott the tournament, including from former FIFA president Sepp Blatter.

It’s clearly late in the game to consider adjusting, transferring, suspending or altering this thoroughly planned international event. The implications for changing the status of the FIFA 2026 tournament are numerous and far-reaching.

Why consider a boycott now?

A series of recent American actions raises serious questions about its suitability to host the FIFA World Cup at this time.

These include destabilizing allies, imposing tariffs without clear justification, launching a military attacking on Iran with Israel, attacking Venezuela and capturing its president, threatening to annex Greenland and Canada, eliminating USAID and putting millions of people at risk of disease, illness, famine and death and overseeing the violence inflicted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents that endangers citizens and residents.

In addition, the fair and equitable treatment of people seeking to visit the U.S. cannot be assured. People from many countries would effectively be barred from visiting the U.S. to attend the event because of current American policy.

There is a serious threat of people being detained, surveilled and persecuted. Racial profiling is a particular concern given how ICE has maneuvered in immigrant communities in the U.S.

Many are also concerned about violence within the U.S., which is disproportionately higher than in most western countries.

At the same time, the U.S. has withdrawn from numerous international organizations and agreements, the antithesis of co-operation on global issues, shutting down the potential for meaningful and necessary dialogue.

All these realities fly in the face of the spirit and solidarity of global sporting events like the World Cup that aim to cultivate peace and intercultural understanding.

FIFA’s record

Allegations of corruption and bribery within FIFA have persisted for years. They have been documented in a U.S. Department of Justice indictment and in FIFA’s own Garcia Report.

FIFA is sensitive to these complaints, and some reforms have been implemented to make the organization more transparent and credible, but many groups still argue the corruption is rampant.

Human rights have long been an issue at FIFA events. The 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar prompted concerns related to LGBTQ+ rights, with many players wearing the “One Love” armband in protest. It also raised concerns over the rights of workers and migrants, who were exploited and faced discrimination.

There are also environmental concerns related to the carbon footprint of such a large event. However, the counter-claim of the event fostering global solidarity is an equally strong justification for it.

FIFA is lathered in capitalist trappings, and there is a great deal of profit to be made for a small number of people. The 2026 World Cup is expected to bring in more than US$10 billion for the organization.

It is unclear how local taxpayers and citizens benefit economically from holding the World Cup, especially given that they underwrite many of the costs through their taxes.

Similarly, the marketing, television and dissemination rights present a lucrative landscape, yet that funding does little to fight poverty, hunger and unacceptable living conditions for many.

Do boycotts work?

There is some debate about the effectiveness of boycotting. The boycotts of the 1980 Summer Olympics in Moscow, following the invasion of Afghanistan, and of the 1984 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, led by the Soviet bloc in retaliation, did not produce substantive political change.

Some questioned the enormity of eliminating the potential for intercultural and diplomatic interaction.

By contrast, the sporting boycott of apartheid-era South Africa from 1964 to 1992 did help contribute to significant change in the country.

The ongoing Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement against Israel — although not supported by the U.S. and many other countries — has had varying success, but the very fact that it exists and is supported by many is politically significant.

The costs of boycotting now

Altering or boycotting the tournament at this stage would inevitably punish national teams and athletes for political considerations beyond their reach. The FIFA event could generate goodwill, promote global understanding and bring people together, especially in relation to nations from the Global South that are often portrayed negatively.

Some argue a boycott would affect players and fans more than FIFA itself. The economic repercussions of a boycott would also be substantial. Yet the very notion of a boycott is that it does, and should, affect and influence attitudes, behaviours and actions.

Others have suggested alternative avenues for change, including through organized protests and social movement mobilization.

Other alternative proposals for enacting change include targeted boycotts against certain sponsors, institutions and sectors. Some activists may wish to target a policy, such as the assault on migrants in the U.S. or corruption within FIFA.

A force for the global public good?

Boycotts are complicated and have been more commonly related to the Olympic Games than the World Cup. However, citizens and activists alike seek opportunities to develop a more just and equitable world.

In 2021, there were also great concerns regarding human rights violations. Interestingly, while a Statista survey of 4,201 respondents across 120 countries found that most respondents believed their country should boycott the 2022 World cup in Qatar, very few soccer fans were willing to boycott it themselves.

But FIFA isn’t a political party; it’s a business and sports organization. Although considered favourable, it does not need the population to approve its decisions, and sponsors are at risk of being targeted and tarnished if public sentiment turns sharply against the event.

Will the FIFA World Cup provide the opportunity for the U.S. to address problems of racism, gender discrimination, the mantra to annex other countries, ICE overreach and denigration against migrants? Or will such issues be simply swept under the carpet?

The tournament could offer a platform to engage with the world through diplomacy grounded in sovereignty, human rights and mutual benefit. A tri-national hosting arrangement with Canada and Mexico may yet foster cross-border co-operation, even amid strained relations.

The current U.S. political climate does not provide an encouraging model to move the FIFA World Cup toward peace and solidarity currently, but the world is in desperate need for it to do so.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Can the 2026 FIFA World Cup still be a force for global unity? – https://theconversation.com/can-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-still-be-a-force-for-global-unity-276502

¿Por qué Irán es ahora el objetivo? Claves para entender la ofensiva que sacude a Oriente Medio

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By David Hernández Martínez, Profesor de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Donald Trump supervisa la operación Furia Épica en su residencia de Mar-a-Lago. Daniel Torok/White House

El ataque de Israel y Estados Unidos contra Irán está rodeado de enormes incertidumbres que hacen muy difícil prever lo que puede ocurrir en los próximos días o semanas.

La primera duda subyace sobre los objetivos reales de esta ofensiva aérea. Parece claro que el ejecutivo de Benjamin Netanyahu quiere ver caer el régimen de los ayatolás, que ha sido su gran enemigo desde hace más de 40 años. Sin embargo, no están tan definidos los propósitos de Donald Trump, que podría conformarse con emular el ejemplo de Venezuela, dejando en el poder a unas autoridades iraníes con las que negociar.

La segunda incógnita que rodea la dramática situación en Oriente Medio es la resistencia de Irán. El régimen afronta cuatro grandes disyuntivas: la soledad regional e internacional, ya que apenas cuentan con apoyos reales en el exterior; la fragilidad mostrada ante los sorprendentes ataques de Israel y Estados Unidos; la tensión y descontento social, que ha derivado en multitudinarias protestas en los últimos meses; y la sucesión en el poder de Teherán, puesto que con la muerte del ayatolá Alí Jameneí no queda claro qué corriente interna se puede imponer y marcar las prioridades de los iraníes.

La racionalidad dentro del histrionismo de Donald Trump

La forma de hacer política de Donald Trump está habitualmente rodeada de declaraciones polémicas y fuera de lugar, así como gestos y escenas más propias de un show de televisión. Una gran parte de los análisis en torno a la figura del mandatario estadounidense caen en tacharle de imprevisible o irracional.

Sin embargo, la reciente política exterior de EE. UU. –o la rebautizada doctrina Donroe– no es un ímpetu improvisado de Washington, sino una respuesta directa y agresiva ante cambios en el orden mundial que en la Casa Blanca consideran desfavorables para sus intereses nacionales.

Trump concita todo su programa político en el lema Make America Great Again –Haz América Grande Otra Vez–, que supone reforzar a EE. UU. como potencia mundial. Por eso, el mandatario estadounidense quiere marcar todo el hemisferio occidental como su zona natural de influencia, al mismo tiempo que cortocircuitar la expansión de China.

La Administración estadounidense busca acabar con cualquier resistencia a sus ambiciosos planes, por lo que Irán pasa a ser un punto central de su estrategia. No hay espacio a la negociación, sino la aceptación por la fuerza de unas condiciones escritas desde el Despacho Oval.

El sueño de un gran Israel de Benjamin Netanyahu

Las intenciones globales de Trump coinciden con las pretensiones de Benjamin Netanyahu, que desde hace tiempo apostó gran parte de su porvenir político a la carrera presidencial del magnate estadounidense. Los atentados del 7 de octubre de 2023 dejaron en Israel una sensación generalizada de vulnerabilidad. Sin embargo, las autoridades israelíes emprendieron un camino de no retorno por cambiar el mapa regional de Oriente Medio. El contexto de convulsión e inestabilidad es aprovechado por los israelíes para erigirse como los grandes líderes de la zona y acabar con cualquier resistencia.

La prolongación del conflicto permite a Netanyahu mantenerse en el poder, postergar sus problemas con la justicia y llevar a cabo el ambicioso plan de un Israel fuerte y en expansión. El resultado es la destrucción de la franja de Gaza y la erosión de Hamás, la invasión del sur del Líbano y el descabezamiento de Hizbolá, así como repetidos ataques contra los hutíes en Yemen o el nuevo gobierno sirio de Ahmed al Sharaa.

No obstante, el gran objetivo del ejecutivo israelí está en Irán, puesto que el derrocamiento del régimen puede ser el golpe definitivo para un nuevo orden regional.

40 días de luto y equilibrios de poder en Irán

La muerte del ayatolá Alí Jameneí y gran parte de la cúpula militar y política de Irán supone un duro golpe para el régimen, aunque ni mucho menos su final. Puede ser que en las intenciones estadounidenses esté replicar el modelo de la intervención en Venezuela o que Israel pretenda propiciar un cambio rápido en el poder. Sin embargo, las fuerzas gubernamentales iraníes llevan preparándose para un escenario como el actual desde la propia revolución de 1979, dejando una cadena de mando bien jerarquizada y extendida por todo el territorio del país y los estamentos del Estado.

El problema para el régimen de Irán es cómo afrontar la resistencia. Los 40 días de luto oficial en el país previsiblemente estarán rodeados de ataques aéreos, pero también de la decisión por elegir al nuevo líder supremo, además de determinar qué estrategia seguir.

A pesar de la discreción y secretismo en el que se mueven las autoridades iraníes, no es descabellado pensar que en estos momentos existe una fuerte presión entre distintas corrientes que buscan hacerse con el control, desde las posiciones más conservadoras e inmovilistas hasta los que están dispuestos a retomar el diálogo con Washington.

The Conversation

David Hernández Martínez no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. ¿Por qué Irán es ahora el objetivo? Claves para entender la ofensiva que sacude a Oriente Medio – https://theconversation.com/por-que-iran-es-ahora-el-objetivo-claves-para-entender-la-ofensiva-que-sacude-a-oriente-medio-277314

Irán no es Venezuela: la guerra que Trump y Netanyahu podrían no controlar

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Alberto Priego, Profesor Agregado de la Facultad de Derecho- ICADE, Departamento de Dep. Público. Área DIP y RRII, Universidad Pontificia Comillas

El pasado sábado 28 de febrero el mundo se despertó con una nueva guerra. Las fuerzas armadas de Israel y de Estados Unidos atacaban por sorpresa y a traición a la República Islámica de Irán. Si bien la sorpresa forma parte de la lógica militar, la traición (se habían emplazado a verse el lunes 2 de marzo) se aleja de las normas básicas de la elegancia y la caballerosidad, dos cualidades que no poseen ni Donald Trump ni Benhamin Nentayahu.

La estrategia utilizada por Washington no difiere mucho de la empleada en Venezuela: golpear y descabezar pero no ocupar físicamente el territorio. Sin embargo, lo que nunca pudieron prever Trump ni Nentanyahu es que Irán sea un Estado militar y políticamente mucho más sólido que Venezuela.

Mientras que el país caribeño tiene un presupuesto militar de 4 000 millones de dólares, el país persa supera los 23 000. Mientras que las defensas antiaéreas venezolanas se limitan a los viejos S-125 y S-300 rusos, Irán posee tecnología propia (Bavar 373 y Karded) con capacidad para detectar y derribar aviones furtivos, como son los B-2, F22 o los F-35.

Por último, tampoco debemos olvidar que Irán tiene una industria militar orientada a la producción de drones y misiles, lo que le hace extremadamente peligroso ante un ataque.

Volviendo a las acciones iniciadas el pasado 28 de febrero, lo que se desprende es que tanto Jerusalén como Washington apuestan por una guerra corta. Lo que EE. UU. e Israel hicieron durante las primeras 48 horas fue golpear las defensas antiaéreas con la intención de controlar el espacio aéreo iraní.

Aunque los datos son escasos y confusos, todo apunta a que durante ese tiempo se habrían destruido buena parte de los radares y de la defensas antiaéreas iraníes.

Irán tiene una gran capacidad de resistencia

Si bien es cierto que Irán ha sufrido un serio correctivo, este no parece haber afectado a su capacidad para resistir y, sobre todo, parece no haber afectado a su estrategia para hacer daño en el exterior. En lo que a la capacidad de resistencia iraní se refiere, los ocho años de guerra con Irak han fortalecido no solo su capacidad para resistir sino también su capacidad para convertir la contienda en una guerra de desgaste.

En cuanto a su estrategia para hacer daño, hay que decir que desde que se iniciara la ofensiva, Irán no ha parado de bombardear las bases militares occidentales en el exterior, especialmente las americanas, pero también instalaciones militares de otros países como Reino Unido o Francia. Esta estrategia, que podríamos denominar como “estrategia mártir”, responde a un objetivo claro: alargar el conflicto para convertirlo en una guerra de desgaste.

Objetivo de Teherán: prolongar el conflicto

Tanto Estados Unidos como Israel todavía son estados con opiniones públicas libres y críticas. Si el conflicto se extendiera en el tiempo y en el espacio, los gobiernos de Trump y de Netanyahu podrían recibir duras críticas internas y también de sus aliados. Por ello, el objetivo de Teherán parece claro: prolongar el conflicto hasta cuatro semanas.

De prolongarse el conflicto ese tiempo se acabarían las reservas de crudo, lo cual dispararía el precio del petróleo por encima de los 100 dólares. Si esto llegara a pasar, nos veríamos en un escenario de recesión económica y, por lo tanto, los gobiernos americanos e israelí verían mermados sus apoyos internos y externos.

Otro de los elementos que no podemos dejar de mencionar es la resiliencia del régimen iraní. Irán es un régimen político mucho más sólido que el venezolano. Debido a la naturaleza del mismo y a la base ideológica que sustenta a la República Islámica, resulta impensable pensar en que alguien de dentro del régimen pueda ocupar el papel de Delcy Rodríguez.

Por lo tanto, todas las opciones de cambio de régimen pasan por la oposición de una importante proporción de la población (10 % del total) que vive directamente de las arcas de la República Islámica. Igualmente, Estados Unidos ha dejado claro que tal y como ocurrió en Venezuela, Washington no tiene ninguna intención de poner botas americanas en Irán, un hecho que limita las opciones de cambio de las acciones de una oposición que lleva años mostrándose incapaz de derrocar a los ayatolás.

Tampoco podemos olvidarnos de la complejidad la sociedad israelí, donde encontramos minorías azeries, baluches, árabes, kurdas, armenias, lures o turcomanas. Si el régimen se resquebrajara como consecuencia de las acciones de Estado Unidos o Israel, algunas de estas minorías podrían aprovechar la ocasión para declararse independientes e incluso para unirse a estados vecinos donde hay grupos étnicos afines.

¿Posibles escenarios?

Para concluir podemos plantear al menos tres posibles escenarios. El primero de ellos –que parece más improbable– sería un colapso del régimen acompañado de un cambio de gobierno liderado por los grupos opositores con Reza Pahlavi –príncipe heredero del sah de Persia, que actualmente vive en el extranjero– como enlace con EE. UU..

El segundo de los escenarios sería una guerra que se prolongara hasta un año con movimientos dentro del régimen que busquen acuerdos pragmáticos con el gobierno de los Estados Unidos.

El tercer y último escenario podría ser una guerra más larga (2-3 años) con mayor coste y con una desestabilización generalizada de la región. De darse este tercer escenario, las consecuencias serían globales e impredecibles.

A modo de conclusión debemos afirmar que aunque el régimen de los ayatolás ha violado reiteradamente los derechos humanos y que ha sido el mayor desestabilizador de toda la región, las acciones emprendidas por Washington y Jerusalén no van a traer paz a la región. Quizá es momento de parafrasear al poeta persa Saadi Shirazi: “Un fin puro no justifica un camino impuro”.

The Conversation

Alberto Priego no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Irán no es Venezuela: la guerra que Trump y Netanyahu podrían no controlar – https://theconversation.com/iran-no-es-venezuela-la-guerra-que-trump-y-netanyahu-podrian-no-controlar-277217