How the polar vortex and warm ocean are intensifying a major US winter storm

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Mathew Barlow, Professor of Climate Science, UMass Lowell

Boston and much of the U.S. faced a cold winter blast in January 2026. Craig F. Walker/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

A severe winter storm sweeping across the central and eastern U.S. in late January 2026 threatened states from Texas to New England with crippling freezing rain, sleet and snow. Several governors issued states of emergency as forecasters warned of hazardous travel conditions, dangerous wind chills and power outages amid bitter cold expected to linger for days.

The sudden blast may come as a shock to many Americans after a mostly mild start to winter, but that warmth may be partly contributing to the ferocity of this storm.

As atmospheric and climate scientists, we conduct research that aims to improve understanding of extreme weather, including what makes it more or less likely to occur and how climate change might or might not play a role.

To understand what Americans are experiencing with this winter blast, we need to look more than 20 miles above the surface of Earth, to the stratospheric polar vortex.

A forecast for Jan. 26, 2026, shows the freezing line in white reaching far into Texas. The light band with arrows indicates the jet stream, and the dark band indicates the stratospheric polar vortex. The jet stream is shown at about 3.5 miles above the surface, a typical height for tracking storm systems. The polar vortex is approximately 20 miles above the surface.
Mathew Barlow, CC BY

What creates a severe winter storm like this?

Multiple weather factors have to come together to produce such a large and severe storm.

Winter storms typically develop where there are sharp temperature contrasts near the surface and a southward dip in the jet stream, the narrow band of fast-moving air that steers weather systems. If there is a substantial source of moisture, the storms can produce heavy rain or snow.

In late January, a strong Arctic air mass from the north was creating the temperature contrast with warmer air from the south. Multiple disturbances within the jet stream were acting together to create favorable conditions for precipitation, and the storm system was able to pull moisture from the very warm Gulf of Mexico.

A map of storm warnings on Jan. 24, 2026.
The National Weather Service issued severe storm warnings (pink) on Jan. 24, 2026, for a large swath of the U.S. that could see sleet and heavy snow over the following days, along with ice storm warnings (dark purple) in several states and extreme cold warnings (dark blue).
National Weather Service

Where does the polar vortex come in?

The fastest winds of the jet stream occur just below the top of the troposphere, which is the lowest level of the atmosphere and ends about seven miles above Earth’s surface. Weather systems are capped at the top of the troposphere, because the atmosphere above it becomes very stable.

The stratosphere is the next layer up, from about seven miles to about 30 miles. While the stratosphere extends high above weather systems, it can still interact with them through atmospheric waves that move up and down in the atmosphere. These waves are similar to the waves in the jet stream that cause it to dip southward, but they move vertically instead of horizontally.

A chart shows how temperatures in the lower layers of the atmosphere change between the troposphere and stratosphere. Miles are on the right, kilometers on the left.
NOAA

You’ve probably heard the term “polar vortex” used when an area of cold Arctic air moves far enough southward to influence the United States. That term describes air circulating around the pole, but it can refer to two different circulations, one in the troposphere and one in the stratosphere.

The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is a belt of fast-moving air circulating around the North Pole. It is like a second jet stream, high above the one you may be familiar with from weather graphics, and usually less wavy and closer to the pole.

Sometimes the stratospheric polar vortex can stretch southward over the United States. When that happens, it creates ideal conditions for the up-and-down movement of waves that connect the stratosphere with severe winter weather at the surface.

A stretched stratospheric polar vortex reflects upward waves back down, left, which affects the jet stream and surface weather, right.
Mathew Barlow and Judah Cohen, CC BY

The forecast for the January storm showed a close overlap between the southward stretch of the stratospheric polar vortex and the jet stream over the U.S., indicating perfect conditions for cold and snow.

The biggest swings in the jet stream are associated with the most energy. Under the right conditions, that energy can bounce off the polar vortex back down into the troposphere, exaggerating the north-south swings of the jet stream across North America and making severe winter weather more likely.

This is what was happening in late January 2026 in the central and eastern U.S.

If the climate is warming, why are we still getting severe winter storms?

Earth is unequivocally warming as human activities release greenhouse gas emissions that trap heat in the atmosphere, and snow amounts are decreasing overall. But that does not mean severe winter weather will never happen again.

Some research suggests that even in a warming environment, cold events, while occurring less frequently, may still remain relatively severe in some locations.

One factor may be increasing disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex, which appear to be linked to the rapid warming of the Arctic with climate change.

Two globes, one showing a stable polar vortex and the other a disrupted version that brings brutal cold to the South.
The polar vortex is a strong band of winds in the stratosphere, normally ringing the North Pole. When it weakens, it can split. The polar jet stream can mirror this upheaval, becoming weaker or wavy. At the surface, cold air is pushed southward in some locations.
NOAA

Additionally, a warmer ocean leads to more evaporation, and because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, that means more moisture is becoming available for storms. The process of moisture condensing into rain or snow produces energy for storms as well. However, warming can also reduce the strength of storms by reducing temperature contrasts. The opposing effects make it complicated to assess the potential change to average storm strength.

However, intense events do not necessarily change in the same way as average events. On balance, it appears that the most intense winter storms may be becoming more intense. Additionally, a warmer environment increases the likelihood that precipitation that would have fallen as snow in previous winters may now be more likely to fall as sleet and freezing rain.

There are still many questions

Scientists are constantly improving our ability to predict and respond to these severe weather events, but there are many questions still to answer.

Much of the data and research in the field relies on a foundation of work by federal employees, including government labs like the National Center for Atmospheric Research, known as NCAR, which has been targeted by the Trump administration for funding cuts. These scientists help develop the crucial models, measuring instruments and data that scientists and forecasters everywhere depend on.

The Conversation

Mathew Barlow has received federal funding for research on extreme events and also conducts legal consulting related to climate change..

Judah Cohen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How the polar vortex and warm ocean are intensifying a major US winter storm – https://theconversation.com/how-the-polar-vortex-and-warm-ocean-are-intensifying-a-major-us-winter-storm-274243

Edwin Mtei, Tanzania’s first central bank governor, left lessons on leadership

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Aikande Clement Kwayu, Lecturer, Tumaini University Makumira

Edwin Mtei, who passed away on 20 January 2026, was the first governor of Tanzania’s Central Bank after independence from Britain.

He filled the post until 1974.

Mtei was appointed by Julius Nyerere, who served as president from 1964 until his resignation in 1985. Nyerere once said of Mtei: “Once a governor, always a governor”, as quoted in Mtei’s autobiography, From Goatherd to Governor. He meant Mtei would always carry the title of governor, given his contribution to starting the Central Bank. Nyerere continued to call Mtei “Governor” even after he transferred him to other posts.

The life and work of Mtei is of central interest to my research as a political scientist who has studied Tanzania’s political history and development politics.

Mtei didn’t take over an established office. The country had obtained its independence only four years before the establishment of the bank in 1965. The newly independent country was using a common currency under the East African Currency Board. Once Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda each decided to be autonomous in 1965, it fell upon Mtei to set up the bank in Dar es Salaam from scratch. He presided over both on technical and logistical matters, including monetary policies, architectural design of the bank’s building, and a design for the national currency.

His work was remarkable as it contributed to the institutionalisation of the country’s economic and financial structures.

Following his tenure as governor, Mtei assumed a bigger government role. He became the secretary general of the East Africa Community from 1974 to 1977 and minister of finance from 1977 to 1979.

As finance minister he took a stand against many of the policies championed by Nyerere, in particular his customised socialist policies – known as ujamaa. Mtei had a different view on how to address the economic problems facing Tanzania. He expressed these to the president – a bold step, given that most government leaders of the time didn’t dare express different views from those of the president.

Mtei resigned in 1979. After Tanzania amended its constitution in 1992 to allow a multiparty system, Mtei founded an opposition party, Chadema, with a liberal ideology that reflected the economic views he had proposed as finance minister.

Chadema has survived to be the leading opposition party in the country to date, despite the limited civic space for opposition politics in Tanzania.

In each of his various roles, Mtei made a mark on Tanzania’s political history.

He leaves several lessons for leaders. Leadership is about conviction. Losing a position for taking a moral stand will eventually lead to a better position with bigger impact. It is professional to give credit even to your opponents. Different views do not mean enmity.

Differences with Nyerere

Nyerere’s economic policies, as set out under the Arusha Declaration, began to show signs of strain.

Following a number of crises such as the oil crisis in 1979 and the Uganda-Tanzania war in 1978-1979, the policies could not facilitate economic recovery in the country. The late 1970s and 1980s were bad years for Tanzania’s socio-economic welfare. All economic variables were negative: for example, inflation rose to 29% per year from 1978 to 1981; between 1979 and 1984, rural income declined by 13.5% in real terms and non-agricultural wage income fell by 65%.

Frustrations about how he was expected to lead the ministry and rescue the country’s economy led him to take a bold step. He resigned in 1979.

Nevertheless, Mtei continued to respect Nyerere. He expressed admiration for Nyerere’s conviction and his determination to build the nation, albeit with an “ineffective” approach.

The farmer

Following his resignation, Mtei became a coffee farmer. He was also active in policy advocacy in the coffee sector as chair of the Tanganyika Coffee Growers Association and a member of Tanzania Coffee Board and Tanzania Coffee Curing Company.

His coffee farm was an estate that he bought after selling his house in a prestigious neighbourhood in Dar-es-Salaam. He actively maintained his coffee estate up to his old age and died in his farm house.

His mastery of finance and economics as well as international knowledge and contacts must have played a big part in his success in the coffee business.

Early life

Mtei came from the Chaggaland on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. He was brought up by a single (widowed) mother with limited resources. In his autobiography he narrated how, at a very young age, he would count banana and coffee trees and identify different species.

Mtei had an entrepreneurial spirit, like two other figures from the same era and region: Erasto N. Kweka and Reginald Mengi.

Kweka was bishop of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Tanzania’s Northern Diocese. He served from 1976 to 2004. During his tenure, the diocese was involved with development projects including a bank, hotels, hospitals, schools and universities. He came to be known as “Bishop of Projects”.

Mengi owned media and manufacturing industries in Tanzania. Kweka, Mengi and Mtei were all born in the 1930s and grew up in Chagga land. Reading from their biographies, they shared similar childhood experiences and upbringing.

The three peers became prominent national figures in different capacities. All three were raised in the context where coffee had been introduced and they saw and experienced the economic impact of coffee through the establishment and development of a cooperative society, in particular the Kilimanjaro National Coffee Union (KNCU). The union provided education scholarships and other financial services to the farmers and their families. It contributed directly and indirectly to the education and interactions of Kweka, Mengi and Mtei.

Mtei was appointed executive director for African affairs at the International Monetary Fund in 1983. To his credit, Nyerere didn’t hold grudges and recommended him for the post.

Mtei saw his main job as proposing reforms in fiscal policies to solve Tanzania’s economic problems. In his autobiography he said Nyerere started to understand the imperative of the reforms and allowed negotiations to begin with the Bretton Woods institutions.

But events intervened. Nyerere was stepping down, though Mtei tried to convince him to stay.

Mtei noted in the autobiography that he thought Nyerere would be the most effective person to lead the reform. In contrast, President Ali Hassan Mwinyi’s autobiography
gives all credit for reforms to Mwinyi, who ran Tanzania between 1985 and 1995.

Given the level of political polarisation seen in Tanzania and the personalisation of politics, the life of Mtei offers many lessons.

The Conversation

Aikande Clement Kwayu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Edwin Mtei, Tanzania’s first central bank governor, left lessons on leadership – https://theconversation.com/edwin-mtei-tanzanias-first-central-bank-governor-left-lessons-on-leadership-274160

ICE immigration tactics are shocking more Americans as US-Mexico border operations move north

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kelsey Norman, Fellow for the Middle East, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

Federal agents deploy tear gas as residents protest a federal agent-involved shooting during an immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis, Minn., on Jan. 14, 2026. Madison Thorn/Anadolu via Getty Images

Over the past year, images of masked, heavily armed Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents arresting men, women and children – outside of courts, at schools and homes – have become common across the United States.

The video of an ICE agent shooting and killing Renee Nicole Good – a U.S. citizen – in Minnesota on Jan. 7, 2026, is one example of the brazen, sometimes deadly tactics that the agency employs.

Part of the reason why recent ICE tactics have shocked Americans is because most people haven’t seen them before. Historically, the country’s militarized immigration enforcement practices have played out closer to the U.S.-Mexico border. And for decades, agents with Customs and Border Protection have carried out most deportations near the border, not ICE.

From 2010-2020, nearly 80% of all deportations were initiated at or near the U.S.-Mexico border. During the COVID-19 pandemic, that number jumped to 98%, as both the Trump and Biden administrations utilized Title 42, a public health statute that allowed the government to rapidly deport recently arrived migrants.

But Trump during his second presidency has greatly shifted immigration enforcement north into the interior of the U.S. And ICE has played a central role.

As international migration and human rights scholars, we have examined recent federal immigration policy to determine why ICE has become the main agency detaining and deporting migrants as far away from the southern border as snowy Minnesota.

And we have also explored how the transition in immigration control from the southern border to more Americans’ front lawns could be shifting the public’s views on deportation tactics.

Migration as a threat

ICE is a relatively new agency. The 2002 Homeland Security Act, passed in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, created the Department of Homeland Security, known as DHS, by merging the U.S. Customs Service – previously under Treasury Department control – and the Immigration and Naturalization Service, formerly under the Justice Department.

DHS has 22 agencies, including three that focus on immigration: Customs and Border Protection, ICE and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which manages legal immigration and naturalization.

Agents dressed in military gear confront protestors.
Federal law enforcement agents confront anti-ICE protesters outside the Bishop Whipple Federal Building in Minneapolis on Jan. 15, 2026.
Octavio Jones/AFP via Getty Images

There is no inherent reason that immigration enforcement should fall under homeland security. But immigration was deemed a national security matter by the George W. Bush administration after 9/11.

In a 2002 presidential briefing justifying DHS’s creation, Bush said, “The changing nature of the threats facing America requires a new government structure to protect against invisible enemies that can strike with a wide variety of weapons.”

The U.S. government has viewed immigration from this national security perspective ever since.

The full impact of the deportations

The Trump administration in early 2025 set a goal of deporting 1 million people during its first year.

But with so few crossings, and thus deportations, at the U.S.-Mexico border, the administration instead has focused its efforts on the U.S. interior.

Trump’s 2025 tax and budget bill reflected this reprioritization, allocating US$170 billion over four years to immigration enforcement, compared to approximately $30 billion allocated in 2024.

Roughly $67 billion goes toward immigration enforcement at the border, including border wall construction. But the largest percentage of the bill’s immigration funding – at least $75 billion – goes toward arresting, detaining and deporting immigrants already living in the U.S.

The Trump administration did not initiate deportations from the U.S. interior. They have formed part of other administration’s policies, both Democratic and Republican.

Interior border enforcement increased under President Bill Clinton in the 1990s with the introduction of the 1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, which widened the criteria for deportations. And former President Barack Obama was referred to as the “Deporter in Chief” after his administration carried out more than 3 million deportations over his two terms, with roughly 69% of deportations occurring at the border.

But the astronomical growth of government funding toward migration control – at the border and in the U.S. – got the country to where it is today.

Between fiscal year 2003 and 2024, for example, Congress allocated approximately $24 toward immigration enforcement carried out by ICE and CBP for every $1 spent on the immigration court system that handles asylum claims.

The new money allocated under the 2025 budget bill, and the reprioritization of immigration enforcement from the border to the interior, partly explains why Americans are now seeing the long-term consequences of border militarization play out directly in their communities.

Several people hold protest signs.
Demonstrators rally before marching to the White House in Washington on Jan. 8, 2026.
AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Americans may not know about the experiences of migrants who are quickly deported near the border, but it is harder to ignore recent images of people snatched up within their own neighborhoods.

Now the visible targets of border enforcement are increasingly immigrants who have built their lives in the U.S. – neighbors, friends, co-workers – as well as anyone who opposes ICE’s tactics, like Renee Good.

Changing political attitudes

In fact, the violence of Trump’s mass deportation campaign may be changing how Americans view immigration.

Just before the 2024 presidential election, a Gallup Poll found that 28% of Americans believed that immigration was the most important problem facing the nation – the highest percentage since Gallup began tracking the topic in 1981. This number dropped to 19% in December 2025, reflecting how more Americans see immigration as a routine issue that the government can manage rather than a crisis that needs to be dealt with.

This is supported in the academic literature. Migration scholars have shown that voters often support strict immigration policies in the voting booth but resist and protest when governments attempt to implement those policies in organized immigrant communities.

In 2002, for example, migration scholar Antje Ellermann documented that immigration officers reported it was more difficult to detain and deport people in Miami – because of resistance by a politicized immigrant community – compared to relatively conservative and less organized communities in San Diego.

But in both places, Republican and Democratic lawmakers were influential in intervening in individual cases to prevent deportations. This is because senior immigration officials, Ellermann noted, were influenced by media attention and pressure by members of Congress to grant relief.

Support for Trump’s handling of immigration is trending downward. Only 41% of Americans approved of Trump’s approach to immigration as of early January 2026, compared to 51% in March of last year, according to CNN polling.

This declining support for Trump’s tactics comes as Republican senators such as Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Joni Ernst of Iowa have criticized ICE and its operations in Minnesota.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ICE immigration tactics are shocking more Americans as US-Mexico border operations move north – https://theconversation.com/ice-immigration-tactics-are-shocking-more-americans-as-us-mexico-border-operations-move-north-273741

‘We ran from monsters’: Once welcomed by Germany after IS genocide, Yazidis are now deported to a life of limbo in refugee camps

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Aleksandra Ancite-Jepifánova, Research Affiliate, CEU Democracy Institute, Central European University

Khanke IDP (Internally Displaced Person) camp in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in August 2025. Aleksandra Ancite-Jepifanova

The sun burns down on a small village less than 20 miles north-east of Mosul, Iraq. Milisia, 14, and her sister Madlin, 13, greet me at the gate in flawless, almost accent-free German. They lead me into the yard of a grey, rectangular, one-story building where their family rents a single room.

We sit in the heat, joined by their mother and two younger brothers, aged nine and ten. Their eyes hold a mixture of hope and despair – as if I am both a bridge to the world they lost and a reminder of it. The girls hand me a carefully preserved plastic folder: their end-of-year school assessments from Germany.

I flip through the papers, and a teacher’s note catches my eye: “Despite not having German as her mother tongue, Madlin was always able to express herself clearly. She participated eagerly in lessons, was open and receptive to new content, and always strived for her own creative ideas. In written work, she was focused and willing to make an effort.” (translation from German.)

This folder is one of the few tangible remnants of a life that was abruptly torn apart a year ago. Until October 2024, the family lived in Adlkofen, a small municipality in Bavaria, southern Germany. But when I met them, in late August 2025, they were over 2,000 miles away in Babirah (Kurdish: Babîrê), a village in Iraqi Kurdistan, a semi-autonomous region of Iraq.

Madlin and Milisia’s family are not ordinary returnees. They are Yazidis (also spelled Yezidis or Ezidis), a non-Muslim religious minority native to northern Iraq. In 2014, Islamic State (IS) unleashed a campaign of mass killings, abductions, enslavement, sexual violence, and forced indoctrination against Yazidis – a horror that made international headlines and forced thousands to flee.

Multiple international bodies and western states, including Germany and the UK, have officially recognised IS atrocities against the Yazidis as genocide.


The Insights section is committed to high-quality longform journalism. Our editors work with academics from many different backgrounds who are tackling a wide range of societal and scientific challenges.


Germany, home to the largest Yazidi diaspora outside Iraq, initially granted protection to those fleeing IS. But in recent years, asylum approval rates have plummeted. Following an informal readmission agreement with Iraq in 2023, Germany began deporting Yazidis back to the country they had fled.

This situation has drawn my attention as a refugee and human rights scholar, leading me to explore how genocide, displacement, and European refugee law intersect. In Iraqi Kurdistan, I met Yazidis deported from Germany to document their experiences and witness the human consequences of Germany’s approach as part of my ongoing research.

Milisia’s family is among the people recently deported. They had lived in Germany for nearly six years. The children went to school, learned the language, and for Milisia, life meant responsibilities far beyond her age – translating, interpreting, and advocating for her family. Now, she feels a deep sense of betrayal by the country she once called home, whose language she speaks and whose values she embraced.

Milisia remembers the deportation date; it is etched in her memory: October 5, 2024. Her voice trembles with anger as she recounts, in German, what happened:

It was 5 am. We were sleeping when men in police uniforms surrounded the house. The social worker opened the door – she had a key. We will never forget it, we were so scared … It was really terrible … We have rights too.

The police separated them. The mother and the girls in one car, the father with the boys in another, and drove straight to the airport. Milisia described the helplessness and disbelief: “We couldn’t even pack our things. If they had sent us a letter beforehand, we could have gotten a lawyer, we could have asked our teachers at school. But they didn’t even send us a letter.”

What happened in 2014

The Yazidis are a small, predominantly Kurdish-speaking non-Muslim religious minority. For centuries they have faced persecution, misrepresentation of their ancient faith, and were often stigmatised as “infidels” or “devil worshippers.”

Nothing in their history, however, matches the scale of the IS attack in 2014. Estimates suggest that around 5,000 Yazidis were murdered; some 7,000 women and girls were abducted, many subjected to enslavement and abuse. More than 2,500 people remain missing.

The assault in August 2014 forced over 350,000 Yazidis to flee their homes in Sinjar (Kurdish: Shingal), a mountainous district in north-western Iraq near the Syrian border and the historic centre of the community.

More than a decade on, an anticipated large-scale return has not happened. As of 2025, fewer than half of those displaced have gone back. Around 100,000 still live in IDP (Internally Displaced Persons) camps in the Kurdistan Region, which is not their place of origin.

Tens of thousands have made their way to Europe and other western countries, often through dangerous routes in the absence of legal alternatives.

A broken promise

The Yazidi case has become a clear illustration of the limits of European refugee protection frameworks when applied to a community targeted for genocide. Asylum law is geared toward proving individual persecution, not addressing the collective and structural harms that follow mass atrocities.

This gap is particularly visible in Germany, home to the world’s largest Yazidi diaspora – over 230,000 people, including earlier migrant generations. About 100,000 Iraqi Yazidis have sought asylum in Germany since 2014.

In the immediate aftermath of the IS attacks, Germany responded generously: between 2014 and 2017, more than 90% of Iraqi Yazidi asylum claims were approved. In addition, a number of federal states introduced targeted reception programmes to support Yazidi women and children who were especially at risk. Among these efforts, the Baden-Württemberg special contingent stood out, providing a pathway for roughly 1,100 survivors of IS captivity to relocate to Germany.

But after IS lost territorial control in 2017, the German approach shifted. Authorities concluded that group-specific persecution had ended, in practice setting a legal cut-off for the genocide.

Approval rates declined sharply. In 2023, fewer than 40% of the roughly 3,400 applications from Iraqi Yazidis were accepted, while about 40% were outright rejected. Another 7.5% resulted in temporary suspensions of deportation, offering no long-term security. The remaining cases were dismissed as inadmissible under the Dublin Regulation, which assigns responsibility for an asylum claim to another EU member state.

This shift has created a hierarchy of protection within the same minority: those who arrived before 2018 typically retain refugee status, while later arrivals – often from the same camps and with identical experiences of displacement – are rejected.

At the same time, conditions in Iraq remain shaped by the consequences of genocide. Sinjar is still devastated and reconstruction is slow. Infrastructure is largely destroyed, armed groups continue to operate, the security situation remains volatile. The district’s status is disputed and large areas are contaminated with landmines. Whole neighbourhoods lie abandoned and basic services are minimal. Mass graves continue to mark the terrain.

In the Kurdistan Region, displaced Yazidis face discrimination in accessing employment and social marginalisation. Tens of thousands have lived in IDP camps for more than a decade, with no viable path to return or integration – conditions that, for many, are an ongoing legacy of genocidal violence.

In January 2023, the German parliament formally recognised Yazidi genocide. Lawmakers acknowledged that its effects remained “omnipresent,” that tens of thousands of Yazidis still lived in camps, and that return to Sinjar was “hardly possible”.

Yet, the recognition remains largely symbolic. It has no influence on asylum decisions, a disconnect that is seen by members of the Yazidi community as a “broken promise”. Between January 2024 and June 2025, more than 1,000 Iraqis were deported. Although the government does not publish disaggregated data, Yazidis are frequently reported to be among them.

Those deported include families with school-age children whose lives were abruptly interrupted. Milisia’s family is not an isolated case. In summer 2025, German media reported on the Qasim family of six, who were returned to Sinjar on the very day their legal appeal succeeded – though the decision arrived only after their plane had taken off.

‘We cannot even go to school in Iraq. Everything is gone.’

Most Yazidis in Iraq come from Sinjar, but others – like Milisia’s family – have lived in villages in the Nineveh Plains closer to Duhok, the third largest city in the Kurdistan Region. Babirah, where they now live, sits amid a patchwork of communities and is surrounded by Arab-majority villages. To reach it, I drove past settlements marked by Arabic signs and men in traditional dishdashas.

Babirah lies about 80 miles north-east of Sinjar. In August 2014, as IS pushed into Sinjar and advanced toward their villages, Milisia’s family fled. Their own village was not occupied, but IS destroyed Yazidi temples as it moved through the area. The family escaped to a site near Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, and spent four months in an IDP camp. When they eventually returned, their home had been looted.

An empty road in a deserted village.
A Yazidi village in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, August 2025.
Aleksandra Ancite-Jepifánova

The sense of insecurity never fully lifted. “We were always scared … always thinking we would be forced to leave again. That feeling never went away,” Najwa, 35, the children’s mother, recalls. By then, several of her siblings already lived in Germany, and her parents had been sponsored there in 2016. Two years later, she and her husband decided to join them. “We sold our car, household belongings, and some sheep, and spent our savings to pay smugglers and take our children somewhere safe.”

In late 2018, they began the journey to Germany via Turkey. Their youngest child was two. They crossed waterways in plastic boats and continued on foot. “The smugglers put us in a black car,” Najwa says, “and hid us the whole way until we reached Germany.”

After arriving, they applied for asylum. They first stayed in a reception centre near Nuremberg, then in shared housing, before moving into a small two-room apartment covered by state assistance. The father worked part-time in a restaurant; Najwa cared for the children and took them to school. The children integrated quickly – speaking German, making friends, and settling into school and kindergarten.

But because they arrived in Germany in 2018, their asylum claim was rejected. Authorities argued there was no longer group-based persecution of Yazidis in Iraq. Their appeal was dismissed in May 2022, and in October 2023 their request to suspend deportation was denied. While officials noted that the children were enrolled in school, the decision made no reference to their formative years in Germany, their fluency in German, or educational prospects in Iraq.

“When we came to Germany, I was seven and my sister was six,” Milisia says. “My brothers were very small. Now we’re 14 and 13.”

The deportation uprooted them entirely. Since October 2024, the children have not attended school, as schools in the area require prior instruction in the local curriculum – a system they have never been part of. They cannot read or write Kurdish or Arabic. “We only speak German with each other,” Milisia explains. “In Germany I was in seventh grade. Only two more years and I could start vocational training. But they sent us back. Now everything is gone.” Her sister adds quietly, “Sometimes children in the village make fun of us because we don’t go to school.”

The family now rents a single room with grey, faded walls, furnished only with a cupboard and an old ceiling fan. The father does casual day labour, earning roughly 10,000 Iraqi dinars (around £6) per day. He suffers ongoing health problems following surgery in Germany and was in hospital during the interview.

An empty room
A single room in which Milisia’s family lives after their deportation from Germany, August 2025.
Aleksandra Ancite-Jepifánova

“I don’t know how we are going to build a life here,” Najwa said. “The money my husband earns is barely enough to survive. We don’t feel we belong in Iraq. We have nothing here … I just want a decent life for my children. I don’t want to live in Iraq.”

She adds that living in a village surrounded by Arab communities with a complex history of conflict only heightens the family’s sense of vulnerability.

Trapped in limbo, the family still holds on to the hope of returning to Germany, even if it means taking irregular and dangerous routes. “Even if we don’t find any legal way to go back, we will try other ways,” Najwa said. “But we don’t have money anymore to pay smugglers, and there are no options left now.”

A permanent state of limbo

Other Yazidis living in the Kurdistan Region are displaced from Sinjar. Saad, 24, recently deported from Germany, embodies the limbo many face – unable to return to their original homeland, yet unable to rebuild a stable life in Kurdistan.

I met Saad and his mother in Shekhka, another Yazidi village. We sat on floor cushions in the house they rent – the fifth since they fled Sinjar 11 years ago. Saad’s father was killed in 2007, when his mother was 25 and Saad was five. In August 2014, when IS advanced on Sinjar, Saad – then 12 – escaped with his mother and two younger brothers. They spent several days stranded on Mount Sinjar before reaching Syria and eventually the Kurdistan Region. His grandparents, unable to walk, were captured along with a young female relative. The family never learned what happened to them.

In the Kurdistan Region, they initially took shelter in a school building. Later, relatives of Saad’s mother who lived in the Shekhka village invited them to stay. Over the years, they moved between five different houses as owners reclaimed the properties. “We had nothing permanent,” Saad’s mother says. The family survived on menial labour—harvesting vegetables, cleaning gardens.

Saad never received proper schooling. He attended school for only half a year after displacement. “After what we saw – running from IS, hearing gunshots, people crying – the children couldn’t focus,” his mother said. “They were too traumatised.”

In 2021, Saad heard about the Belarus–Poland route to Europe. The family sold land belonging to his grandfather in Sinjar to pay a smuggler. In October that year, he flew from Baghdad to Damascus and then to Minsk, before moving through forests to the Polish border.

Man takes  selfie in McDonalds
Saad during his time working at McDonalds in Germany.
Saad Nawaf Abdo

He endured cold, rain and repeated pushbacks. “One time Polish guards threw away our belongings, even our passports, and humiliated us,” Saad recalls. Eventually, he made his way to Germany, driven from Poland by a Ukrainian smuggler.

In Germany, he applied for asylum, but his claim and appeals were rejected. He completed an integration course, worked at McDonald’s, lived in a shared apartment and sent money home for his mother’s surgery and basic needs.

“At least I could provide for myself and help my family,” he says. Then, one night, police came to his door.

They were banging so hard I thought it would break. They gave me 40 minutes to pack and took me straight to the airport.

Saad said he received no prior notice of the deportation. Today, he and his family rent a house owned by a Yazidi woman who lives in Australia. “Once she told us to leave because she was coming for two months,” his mother recalls. “We begged her – we had nowhere else to go. She finally let us stay.”

Returning to Sinjar is not an option. Their home in their native village is destroyed, there is no reliable electricity or water, and Saad’s mother suffers from chronic health problems requiring regular treatment. Above all, the trauma of 2014 remains close. “When we go to Sinjar, we remember everything – how IS attacked us, burned our houses,” she says. They visit only occasionally to see relatives or Saad’s father’s grave.

Man stands among ruins.
Saad during a visit to Sinjar in October 2025 after his deportation from Germany.
Saad Nawaf Abdo

German authorities often argue that Yazidis can find work in the Kurdistan Region. Saad, who speaks the Kurmanji dialect of Kurdish like most Yazidis, shakes his head. “They don’t understand. I didn’t finish school. I don’t speak Arabic or Sorani (the main dialect in Iraqi Kurdistan). How can I work?”

He and his mother are also affected by instances of misrepresentation and online hate speech from segments of the local Muslim Kurdish population. “People post insults about Yazidis. No one stops them. We are treated as the lowest,” Saad’s mother says.

Since his return, Saad and his brothers, now 19 and 20, work seasonal agricultural jobs – harvesting vegetables from 3am until late morning for about 14,000 Iraqi dinars each (around £8) a day. This work is available only for several months each year, leaving the family’s total income around or below the poverty line in the Kurdistan Region. “When Saad went to Germany, we hoped he could take us there legally,” his mother says. “But nothing happened.”

Saad’s passport now carries a deportation stamp, barring legal re-entry. “I want to go to Germany again, but I cannot legally enter,” he says. He remembers Germany with longing: “There, I could work. I didn’t have to wake up before dawn to dig potatoes under the sun…Now even that work here has stopped – the season is over.”

His mother added, quietly: “When Saad came back, he was in a very bad state. I had to be both mother and father. I tried to calm him – otherwise he might have taken his own life.”

‘I’ve always lived in the camp’

While Milisia’s and Saad’s families live in Yazidi villages, over 100,000 Yazidis remain displaced in IDP camps near Duhok. Eleven years after IS’s initial attack, these camps – originally intended as temporary shelters – have become a lasting part of Kurdistan’s landscape, permanent settlements of waiting and uncertainty. For many, moving abroad is the only thing that offers hope.

Even being returned to an IDP camp does not protect Yazidis from deportation from Germany. Authorities and courts have adopted a narrow interpretation, arguing that basic needs will be met in the camp. This approach has led to cases where people are sent back to the very camps they once fled, undoing years of integration in Germany and reinforcing the cycle of displacement and despair.

Image of a refugee camp with children
Khanke IDP camp in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in August 2025.
Aleksandra Ancite-Jepifánova

Saber, 27, is one such example. German media reported on his case after he was deported to Sharya IDP camp in the Kurdistan Region, where he now lives in a tent after four years in Germany. He had worked full time, spoke fluent German and had been well integrated into daily life.

Others with precarious residence status in Germany face similar risks, often separated from family members who remain in the camps. German restrictions on family reunification have kept many families apart for years: wives run households alone, children grow up without fathers, and men in Germany wait in legal limbo, while families survive in tents. For these families, Germany represents the only hope for a durable solution.

Layla, 40, and her children have lived in Khanke IDP camp since fleeing Sinjar in 2014. As I walked through the camp, tents stretched in neat rows, children played on dusty paths – a generation that has never seen life outside the camp. After repeated fires in standard tents, residents were permitted to rebuild their shelters using concrete blocks, while the roofs remain temporary. Layla’s family now occupies a single small room, furnished with a few plastic chairs, a sofa, a TV and a refrigerator.

Two boys and girl sit for a photo.
Layla’s children at Khanke IDP camp, where they have lived for most of their lives, August 2025.
Aleksandra Ancite-Jepifánova

Layla’s husband left for Germany in 2017, travelling irregularly. His asylum application was initially rejected, but he later received a Duldung – a temporary suspension of deportation. This status did not allow family reunification, leaving the family stranded in the camp. He now works at McDonald’s in Hanover and has obtained a residence permit, which would allow family reunification – but too late for Layla’s two sons, who also live in the camp and are now young adults. Only Layla and her daughter remain eligible, provided the father earns a sufficient income. Their eldest son, in his early twenties, who migrated irregularly in 2021, now faces deportation back to the same camp. Layla’s daughter, 13, explained:

I don’t remember my father. I only speak with him on the phone.

Layla added: “It’s very difficult to live without a husband. The children should have their father. I handle everything alone – the hospital, shopping. All the burden is on me.”

Returning to Sinjar is not an option. Their home is destroyed, the area abandoned. “No one from our village lives there anymore,” Layla said. For her daughter, the camp has become permanent: “I don’t remember Sinjar. I’ve always lived in this camp.” Her mother echoes this: “Even when people ask where we are from, we say, ‘We are from the camps.’”

Germany represents hope. “In Germany, there is safety, human rights and work,” Layla said. “I left school young. If I were in Germany, I would go back and finish. Women can work and have a life. Here, there is nothing.” Both mother and daughter are learning German. The daughter studies online and can now introduce herself in German: “If I go to Germany, I want to study. I want to become a doctor and help sick people.”

Layla expressed frustration at Germany’s shift in policy. “We were hoping Germany would continue helping us. At first, we felt supported, that people were standing behind us, but then they stopped. We have survived so many genocides. Every time it happens, we survive, and then it happens again.” Her message to Germany is simple:

We don’t want much. Just stop deporting Yazidis. Give them permanent residence and reunite the families.

‘We ran from monsters’

Nearby in the same camp, Majida, 38, lives with her six children in a small room; the camp has been their home since 2014. Her husband, Kamal, left for Germany in 2017, hoping to secure protection and eventually reunite the family, following the path of a friend who had managed to do so.

A family sit on the floor and pose for a picture
Majida and her six children, aged between 11 and 18, in Khanke camp, in August 2025.
Aleksandra Ancite-Jepifánova

Instead, his asylum claims were repeatedly rejected, leaving him in a precarious legal status and unable to bring them. “We haven’t seen him for eight years,” Majida says.

Before 2014, Kamal had worked for years to build their house in their Sinjar village. “It was our dream,” Majida recalls. “We moved in and lived there only one year before IS came. Then we fled, and the house was destroyed.”

When they first arrived at the camp, they believed it would be temporary. “At first, we thought this would last only a few days. But year after year, we realised no one is going to do anything for us.”

“We don’t see any future here – not in the camp, not in Sinjar,” she said. The family recently returned to Sinjar to process ID cards, their first visit since fleeing over a decade ago. “I didn’t want to go,” Majida says.

When I went there, I remembered everything – my childhood, our neighbours, those who were killed, how we escaped. I cried. But I was grateful I could save my children. We ran from monsters.

The Iraqi government offers four million Iraqi dinars (around £2,300) to each displaced Yazidi household willing to return and rebuild. Yazidis and rights groups say the amount is far too small. Majida’s family spent around 30 million dinars (around £17,000) to build their house.

Majida said she does not feel accepted in the Kurdistan Region either. Life in the camp is largely isolated, and the family has little interaction with Muslim Kurds, the dominant group in the area, which contributes to feelings of insecurity. Majida believes Yazidis are not seen as part of the wider community.

Fear and mistrust run deep. Even if new houses were built in the Kurdistan Region, Majida said she would still prefer the camp among other Yazidis over a two-storey home in a Muslim-majority area.

I don’t trust the government. I’m afraid everything that happened to me will happen to my children too. Even when I take them to the playground in the neighbouring town, I don’t feel safe.

Discrimination in employment adds to these sentiments. Yazidis are often excluded from jobs in the food industry because their non-Muslim faith is seen as incompatible with handling “halal” food.

Majida’s six children are now aged between 11 and 18. Raising them alone has been exhausting. Majida cries as she recalls the early years without her husband.

We have been through so many difficulties. At the beginning, the children were selling beans on the street. My husband was hiding in Germany, unable to work, unable to send money. NGOs later trained me in sewing, so I opened a small tailoring business. But the money is never enough. I spent so much on hospitals and doctors, and to send the children to school. It was still not enough.

In desperation, and tired of waiting for a legal path to family reunification, Majida and her children attempted to reach Europe irregularly through Turkey in 2023. They were caught and returned to Iraq.

One of her sons, now 18, added: “In Germany, you can build your future – go to school, work. Here, we don’t know what will happen.” Another son said: “Once we finish school, we’ll try to find a way to go to Germany. That’s our only hope.”

Majida’s husband, Kamal, 45, lives in the German city of Braunschweig, near Hanover. I interviewed him separately via video call. Kamal lives in refugee accommodation, sharing a small room with another man, and works shifts at warehouses.

After eight years marked by asylum rejections, periods of irregular status and hundreds of euros spent on legal fees, Kamal has recently been granted a temporary two-year residence permit. While the permit may lead to permanent residency, it allows family reunification only in exceptional humanitarian cases – a threshold so high that reunification with his family remains out of reach.

During the interview, Kamal broke down in tears. “We don’t have a future in Iraq. Yazidis have always been targeted, and I believe it will happen again,” he says.

I came to Germany hoping they would protect my family. Everyone talked about human rights here. But my life is on hold. Every night I cry because I miss my children. I haven’t seen them in years, and they no longer know me.

He added: “There is no humanity left for me, and I have lost hope in Germany. I don’t know what to do. Will I stay alone like this for the rest of my life? Sometimes I even think about ending my life. It’s too much.”

Sinjar will never be the same again

Instead of family reunification in Germany, many Yazidi men now face the risk of being deported back to the camps. This is what happened to Ali, 42. In autumn 2023, he joined protests in Berlin against the deportation of Yazidis, speaking to German media outside the parliament. Only weeks later, in December 2023, Ali himself was deported, after five years in Germany. He initially returned to the IDP camp in the Kurdistan Region where his wife and seven children had lived since 2014, after fleeing Sinjar.

Ali had arrived in Germany in late 2018, hoping eventually to bring his family. He paid around US $10,000 to smugglers – money borrowed from relatives and taken from his savings. His asylum claim and subsequent appeals were rejected. During his years in Germany, he worked in construction. In autumn 2023, he received a deportation notice.

A devastated and ruined city block.
The empty streets of a devastated Sinjar in December 2017.
Shutterstock/Tomas Davidov

We spoke on the phone while I was in Duhok and he was in Sinjar, where he moved a few months ago after leaving the camp. His children, now aged between five and 18, barely knew him. “When I came back to the camp, they asked, ‘Who is this man?’” he says. “I tried to give them something; they wouldn’t take it because they didn’t know me. It took them about a year to get a little bit used to me. Even now, they don’t act normally around me. None of them sleep next to me – they always sleep with their mum. I always feel like a stranger to them. Even when I try to be close, to kiss them, they don’t return it. It’s a strange feeling.”

Ali and his family spent 11 months in the camp after his deportation. He struggled with his mental health and eventually decided to return to Sinjar.

Their house had been completely destroyed. Ali applied for the government compensation of four million Iraqi dinars, but the family has not yet received it. “We are living in someone else’s house,” he explains. “When the owners return, they’ll ask us to leave.” Much of their street remains destroyed or abandoned.

To survive, the family works in orchards planting vegetables, but the income is unstable and seasonal. As Ali puts it, “Here and the camp – both places are bad.”

What needs to change

Although the Islamic State was militarily defeated, the harm inflicted on the Yazidis did not end in 2017. For a small, historically persecuted minority rooted in a single region, prolonged displacement in undignified conditions perpetuates the long-term consequences of genocide. With no viable local solutions, relocation abroad has become the only realistic way for many Yazidis to rebuild their lives.

Crucially, the numbers involved are low. After a peak of around 37,000 applications in 2016, annual asylum claims by Iraqi Yazidis in Germany have recently fallen to around or below 4,000. Germany’s largest refugee support NGO, Pro Asyl, estimates that up to 10,000 Yazidis currently face the risk of deportation back to Iraq.

At a minimum, Germany should grant secure temporary residence to Yazidis who arrived after 2017, with the right to work and family reunification, alongside a clear path to permanent status. Children’s rights must be prioritised to prevent the loss of education and belonging seen in cases like Milisia’s.

A draft law proposed by the German Green Party would offer a three-year residence permit to Yazidis from Iraq who arrived by July 2025, recognising both ongoing instability in Iraq and Germany’s special responsibility after acknowledging the genocide. Whether it will pass remains uncertain.

Ultimately, addressing the Yazidi case requires a tailored approach that recognises genocide survivors as a distinct vulnerable group and provides durable solutions that prevent the continuation of displacement and harm.

Ali still believes the only viable long-term solution for Yazidis is to move abroad. He sees Germany as offering safety, freedom of religion and future opportunities.

There, nobody asks about our religion, nobody cares about that, and we would have a future. Here [Sinjar], it will never be like before 2014. We always have fear inside.


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The Conversation

Aleksandra Ancite-Jepifánova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

The author would like to thank Ghazi Murad Ismael for assistance with fieldwork in Iraq.

ref. ‘We ran from monsters’: Once welcomed by Germany after IS genocide, Yazidis are now deported to a life of limbo in refugee camps – https://theconversation.com/we-ran-from-monsters-once-welcomed-by-germany-after-is-genocide-yazidis-are-now-deported-to-a-life-of-limbo-in-refugee-camps-272533

A century ago, John Logie Baird achieved a landmark moment in television history. The viewers weren’t convinced

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Donald McLean, Honorary Lecturer in Early Television, University of Glasgow

In 1926, the West End of London offered a dazzling range of evening entertainment. Choices included watching Fred Astaire and his sister Adele on stage at the old Empire theatre in Lady, Be Good!, or experiencing The Big Parade silent movie at the Tivoli on the Strand with a full live orchestra.

But on a damp Tuesday evening 100 years ago, around 40 members of the Royal Institution – one of the UK’s most influential science research and education charities – chose instead to visit a makeshift laboratory on an upper floor at 22 Frith Street in Soho.

Reportedly all attired in evening dress, they were responding to an invitation from the then little-known Scottish inventor John Logie Baird. The event became a landmark moment in television history.

Baird successfully demonstrated an experimental prototype that could augment broadcast radio with live moving pictures. It was the world’s first demonstration of a mechanical television system able to show human faces. At the time, Baird called the display a “televisor”.

The best account of the evening came from William Chaney Fox, a Press Association journalist and close friend of Baird. He recalled that the demonstration room in Frith Street could only accommodate a handful of people, each of whom was televised while other guests inspected the received image in an adjacent room.

Fox had been put in charge of the unexpectedly large turnout. But as each group departed, he overheard that most viewers were not much impressed with what they had seen.

A much sought-after dream

By the start of the 20th century, sending still images over long distances by telegraph had become routine. But watching moving pictures at a distance remained a much sought-after dream.

Over the following decades, company-funded research departments (notably in the US, Germany and UK) sought to develop all-electronic television from scratch. Years of costly research and development finally resulted in these prototype TV sets and broadcasts reaching a public audience from the mid-1930s.

However, in the previous decade, Baird had spotted a more rapid route to market for moving pictures. Inspired by work in Europe and the US, he sought to make a profitable business out of long-forgotten ideas for television.

Those 19th-century ideas could, Baird realised, be adapted into a version of television using spinning discs of lenses that would require minimal investment. He pursued the difficult task of televising conventionally lit scenes that would show the human face in detail and texture.

Whereas an established company would have kept work-in-progress behind closed doors, the perilous state of Baird’s finances suggests he needed to promote his version of television heavily through demonstrations.

But due to the size of his apparatus, demonstrations from early 1926 were largely confined to his laboratories. These demonstrations, he hoped, would allow him to gain publicity and encourage potential investors in his work – while still concealing details of his methods from competitors.

‘An error of judgment’

From late 1925, Baird began promoting via hobbyist press what he retrospectively described as “true television”. He extended an open invitation to members of the Royal Institution to witness this at a demonstration to be held on the evening of January 26, 1926.

Remarkably, none of the attending members published any comment on their experience, suggesting they had not recognised the significance of what they experienced.

The only first-hand report was printed in the Times two days later as a minor event. When E.G. Stewart of the Gas, Light and Coke Company visited Baird in April 1926 (perhaps with a view to investing), he concluded that it would be “an error of judgment” for Baird to place the equipment as presented on the market.

Baird’s television apparatus used at Frith Street was centred on a large spinning disc of lenses, operating as a television camera that generated a vision signal of 30 vertical lines and a transportable display that converted the signal back to an image. The equipment gave a television picture which, from Stewart’s report, appeared as a thin strip of the image sweeping across the display just five times per second.

Of course, 100 years ago, there were no standards for television picture quality, so success depended on the watcher’s subjective experience of seeing something vaguely recognisable. Given the limited detail, 30-line television relied heavily on the uncanny human ability to discern faces and expressions from even the crudest and most distorted of displayed images.

Following a demonstration he attended some months later, Fox wrote that Baird had improved the picture, giving “the first appearance of true detail [where] people recognised one another when they were transmitted”.

This might explain why the attendees at Frith Street had seemed unimpressed, as the demonstration presumably lacked those same recognisable features. At every demonstration, Baird emphasised he was not presenting a finished product but a work-in-progress that required more time, effort and money. Throughout the remainder of 1926, positive reports from influential dignitaries became more frequent, indicating significant progress.

In the following years, Baird’s Frith Street demonstration on January 26, 1926 was retrospectively identified as the watershed moment when television transitioned from being a dream into a period of practical reality. In the process, Baird came to be immortalised – in the UK, at least – as the inventor of television by being first to show faces with detail and texture in reflected light.

Restored version of singer Betty Bolton filmed by Baird’s 30-line TV system. Copyright: D.F. McLean.

From 1927, Baird continued to promote and develop his approach to television, securing recognition for being first in showing television in colour and in receiving images live in New York, sent by radio from London.

This and his experimental Europe-wide 30-line television service from 1929 to 1932 inspired the BBC to pursue a superior service for the public by exploiting new developments in electronics from the Baird Company’s competitor, Marconi-EMI.

The origins of CBS’s 1940s colour TV breakthrough in the US can be traced to Baird’s 1928 system, as can the colour TV method used in the Apollo lunar missions.

Forty years after his death in 1946, Baird was described by Daily Telegraph journalist L. Marsland Gander as “an eccentric visionary with a passion for gadgetry”. Unfortunately, despite his landmark achievements in the history of television, Gander also described Baird as “constantly in financial trouble”.

The Conversation

Donald McLean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A century ago, John Logie Baird achieved a landmark moment in television history. The viewers weren’t convinced – https://theconversation.com/a-century-ago-john-logie-baird-achieved-a-landmark-moment-in-television-history-the-viewers-werent-convinced-274089

Copper peptides: these powerful molecules are worth the skincare hype

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ahmed Elbediwy, Senior Lecturer in Cancer Biology & Clinical Biochemistry, Kingston University

Copper peptides act as little helpers that tell your skin cells to repair and rebuild themselves. Yaroslav Astakhov/ Shutterstock

Peptides have become one of the skincare industry’s most popular ingredients. It’s no wonder why, with evidence showing these powerful molecules hold the secret to healthier, firmer and more radiant skin.

But out of the many peptides that exist, one in particular has been gaining attention lately in the beauty industry: copper peptides.

It’s not surprising that copper peptides are garnering so much attention. This peptide is special because of its ability to multitask – with research showing that not only does it help make the skin firmer and more supple, it also protects the skin from damage.

The human body naturally produces many types of peptides. Each supports vital body functions, acting like tiny building blocks of life. Many help form the foundation of essential proteins – such as collagen and elastin, which help keep skin healthy and youthful.

The three main types of peptides in cosmetics are: carrier peptides, signal peptides and neurotransmitter-inhibiting peptides.

Carrier peptides aid in wound repair by physically transporting important minerals into the cells to initiate repair.

Signal peptides can prevent ageing by stimulating the activation of the skin’s fibroblasts – specialised skin cells that produce substances such as collagen, a protein which helps maintain the skin’s elasticity.

Neurotransmitter-inhibiting peptides act like botulinum toxin, relaxing facial muscles by blocking the signals that make them contract. This may reduce wrinkles.

Copper peptides are actually a type of carrier peptide. They’re produced naturally by your body. But as we age, the concentration of copper peptides in our bodies drops. Applying synthetic, lab-made versions – found in creams, serums and masks – can help replenish these molecules and help your skin.

Copper peptides were first discovered in 1973. Research found that these molecules aided wound healing, which is why the first commercialised carrier peptide in 1985 was designed to deliver copper into wounded tissue.

After gaining research attention for this role, further studies examined what other functions copper peptides had on the skin. Researchers found that they had anti-ageing, anti-inflammatory and renewing properties and also supported hair growth.

Copper peptides act as little helpers that tell your skin cells to repair and rebuild themselves. They do this by boosting collagen and elastin, key proteins that keep your skin feeling smooth and firm.

Copper peptides have been also found to reduce inflammation and calm skin redness, too. But perhaps most crucially, they have been found to act as antioxidants, fighting damage caused by pollution and the sun’s ultraviolet rays.

On top of that, copper peptides improve wound healing. This is why they’re often used after cosmetic treatments – such as face and neck lifts and micro-needling – that can damage the skin. Copper infused wound dressings are also used to help chronic wounds heal faster.

Overall, skin cell studies have shown that copper peptides increase collagen production, improve skin thickness and skin elasticity. Clinical trials and lab tests confirm these benefits, making copper peptides one of the most researched anti-ageing ingredients.

A dropper filled with blue liquid that is dripping out of the dropper and into a puddle of the same blue liquid.
Trials show copper peptides can increase collagen and improve skin texture.
marevgenna/ Shutterstock

For best results, you might want to try applying it twice a day – first in the morning so it can act as a potent antioxidant, then in the evening so it can replenish collagen overnight.

Copper peptides can also penetrate the skin more effectively when delivered with microneedles, which makes them even more useful in advanced skincare products.

Copper peptides v other peptides

Other peptides do work well on the skin – such as palmitoyl-based peptides and acetyl hexapeptide-8 peptide – both of which fight wrinkles. But these both work differently to copper peptides.

Palmitoyl peptides signal the skin to make more collagen, while acetyl hexapeptide-8 relaxes facial muscles to reduce expression lines, acting like a less expensive version of botulinum toxin.

Copper peptides stand out among these other peptides because they can do the work of multiple peptides in one. Copper peptides boost collagen, improve skin healing and fight oxidative stress. This appears to make them better at preventing the signs of ageing.

Some skin cell studies show they work even better when combined with other well known skincare ingredients, such as hyaluronic acid (which boosts hydration).

However, some combinations of peptides can cause copper peptides to be unstable – making them fall apart. This could increase skin sensitivity, especially when combined with peptides, such as vitamin A and C.

Copper peptides themselves can also cause, in a few people, some skin irritation and mild allergic reactions. If you find you experience these symptoms after using copper peptides, stop use immediately.

Copper peptides are more than just a trend – they’re backed by science. They help keep skin healthy and speed up healing. They might even play a role in future cancer treatments.

Research has shown copper peptides turn on genes that tell damaged cancer cells to shut themselves down and stop replicating. They’ve also been shown to fix other genes that control cell growth and repair.

If you’re curious about skincare, copper peptides may be worth incorporating into your daily routine. Just remember that good, healthy skin also needs other measures – such as sunscreen, hydration and a healthy lifestyle.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Copper peptides: these powerful molecules are worth the skincare hype – https://theconversation.com/copper-peptides-these-powerful-molecules-are-worth-the-skincare-hype-272964

What are postbiotic supplements – and do you really need them?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rachel Woods, Senior Lecturer in Physiology, University of Lincoln

insta_photos/Shutterstock

You will likely have heard of probiotics. These are live microorganisms that, when consumed in sufficient amounts, can benefit health. They occur naturally in foods such as yoghurt, kefir, kimchi and sauerkraut and are also sold as supplements.

You may also know that for these probiotics to thrive, they need to be fed. That food comes in the form of prebiotics, which are non-digestible fibres found in everyday foods such as garlic, onions, leeks, bananas and oats. Prebiotics pass through the digestive system largely intact, where they become fuel for beneficial gut bacteria.

More recently, another term has begun appearing on supplement shelves: postbiotics. So what are they, and do we actually need them?

Postbiotics are the beneficial compounds produced when gut bacteria, including probiotics, break down prebiotics. In other words, they are not live bacteria themselves, but the substances those bacteria produce. These include short-chain fatty acids, enzymes, vitamins, amino acids and, in some definitions, structural components such as fragments of bacterial cell walls and parts of dead microorganisms.

Although postbiotic supplements are relatively new, postbiotics themselves are not. They have been produced in our intestines for as long as humans have had gut bacteria. What is new is the idea of consuming them directly, rather than relying on the gut microbiome to make them.

So, if postbiotics are the end product, should we skip probiotics and prebiotics and go straight to postbiotic supplements? The short answer is no. The longer answer lies in the evidence.

Postbiotics are a broad and diverse group of compounds, and research into their health effects is still at an early stage. Some studies suggest potential benefits, but the quality, strength and relevance of the evidence vary widely.

Certain postbiotics, for example, have been linked to improved mood and better sleep quality. Other findings come from laboratory studies, such as reduced invasion of colon cancer cells in cell cultures or protection against E coli infection in tightly controlled experiments. These results are interesting, but they cannot be directly applied to humans without further investigation.

Animal studies suggest some postbiotics may increase the surface area of the gut, which could improve nutrient absorption. However, results seen in animals do not always translate to people.

There is also limited evidence from human studies. One specific postbiotic, butyrate, a short-chain fatty acid produced when gut bacteria break down fibre, has been linked to potential improvements in symptoms among people with inflammatory bowel disease.

A double-blind, placebo-controlled study found that supplementation with a heat-killed strain of Lactobacillus pentosus reduced the likelihood of older adults developing the common cold. Another review concluded that a heat-killed strain of Lactobacillus acidophilus may reduce both the risk and duration of diarrhoea in children.




Read more:
Gut microbiome: meet Lactobacillus acidophilus – the gut health superhero


Some postbiotics, such as exopolysaccharides, have shown promise in enhancing immune responses in cell and animal studies. However, these findings remain preliminary.

One form of postbiotic is already used in medical practice. Bacterial lysates are products made from broken-down bacteria and are prescribed in some countries to help prevent recurrent respiratory tract infections in people who are particularly vulnerable. These lysates are made from components of the bacteria that cause infection and work by stimulating the immune system. Outside of these specific clinical uses, however, evidence supporting postbiotic supplements remains limited.

Practical advantages but limited evidence

When researchers refer to advantages of postbiotics, they are usually describing practical and technical factors rather than proven health superiority. Unlike probiotics, which are live microorganisms, postbiotics are non-living compounds. This makes them more stable, easier to store, and less sensitive to heat, oxygen and time. As a result, the amount present in a supplement is more likely to match what is listed on the label.

Postbiotics may also be safer for certain vulnerable groups, such as people who are severely immunocompromised, because they do not involve ingesting live bacteria. These features make postbiotics attractive from a manufacturing and safety perspective.

However, these practical advantages do not mean postbiotics are more effective for improving health. Evidence for benefits in humans remains limited and is highly specific to individual compounds. There is also a lack of standardisation. Because postbiotics include a wide range of substances with different biological effects and dose requirements, findings for one postbiotic cannot be assumed to apply to others.

For most people, supporting the gut microbiome through a varied diet rich in fibre and fermented foods remains the most reliable way to generate postbiotics naturally, while also delivering broader nutritional benefits that supplements cannot replicate.

Perhaps most importantly, postbiotic supplements cannot replicate the wider benefits of whole foods. Eating live yoghurt, for example, provides probiotics alongside calcium and protein. Pairing that yoghurt with a banana feeds the probiotics with prebiotic fibre, while also supplying potassium and vitamin B6. Together, these foods allow the gut to produce postbiotics naturally, while delivering a broad range of nutrients at the same time.

Cost is another consideration. Supplements can be expensive, and for most people, investing that money in a varied diet rich in fibre and fermented foods is likely to deliver greater overall health benefits.




Read more:
What the gut microbiome of the world’s oldest person can tell us about ageing


So where does that leave postbiotics? They are a promising area of research and may prove useful in specific clinical settings or vulnerable populations. For now, however, the evidence does not support replacing probiotics and prebiotics with postbiotic supplements for the general population.

At present, the most reliable way to benefit from postbiotics is to let your gut do what it evolved to do. Eating a diet that includes both probiotic foods and prebiotic fibres allows gut bacteria to produce postbiotics naturally. Until research on supplements becomes stronger and clearer, focusing on whole foods remains the most practical and evidence based approach.

The Conversation

Rachel Woods does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What are postbiotic supplements – and do you really need them? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-postbiotic-supplements-and-do-you-really-need-them-272937

Iran protests are not just about economics – they’re a full-blown ideological crisis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mahsa Ghaffari, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, University of Portsmouth

Iran’s latest wave of unrest is often explained in familiar terms: economic collapse, sanctions, inflation, or sudden political anger. But this framing misses what is actually unfolding.

What we are witnessing is not simply another protest cycle. It is the result of a decades-long erosion of belief in the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic. It is about the slow disintegration of a worldview that once claimed to explain everything: how people should dress, think and live.

Totalitarian systems rarely fall through dramatic revolutions alone. More often, they unravel from within, as the distance grows between what the state demands and what people actually live by.

Today, if you walk through Tehran, you’ll see many women not wearing the hijab. Even when they walk past morality police – who, by law, should enforce its wearing – nothing happens.

I’m a researcher who looks at how the relationship between socio-cultural conditions and consumer behaviour in Iran leads to social conflicts. My work has suggested that, as in the situation described above, where overt acts of actual resistance are brutally suppressed, people rely on mundane and everyday small acts of defiance to navigate or moderate their institutional restrictions.

In healthy societies, laws, norms and everyday practices tend to evolve together. But in totalitarian systems this is not possible. As political philosopher Hannah Arendt argued in The Origins of Totalitarianism, ideology replaces facts. Once that ideology is challenged, it cannot be revised – because revising it would jeopardise the state’s legitimacy.

We see this clearly in Iran. When there is drought or economic hardship, people are told that God is testing them, rather than being given structural or political explanations.

In this way in Iran, the hijab takes on a particular significance. The regulations around how this head covering should be worn are not simply a dress code, but a political apparatus of control.

Despite growing public demands to relax the mandatory hijab rules, the state remains reluctant to do so because any such reform would threaten its own claim to be an Islamic state where people adhere to the rules.

This is where the contradiction becomes clear. On the one hand, people are becoming more educated, more connected, and more able to compare different ways of living. They can see how people in other countries dress, work and live. This exposure can challenge the ideology.

On the other hand, the state cannot revise its ideology without undermining its own legitimacy. It cannot admit that its foundational beliefs were wrong, because those beliefs are what justify its right to rule.

As a result, the legal pillar of the system becomes increasingly rigid. But this rigidity produces something very important – plasticity within institutions.

My research in how this has worked in Iran shows it has created a growing gap between different layers of social life: between what is legally required, what feels socially normal, and what people cognitively accept as reasonable. In other words, the system gets out of sync with itself.

Over time, this introduces a kind of malleability. People begin to sense this gap. They learn how to navigate it, bend it and quietly push against it. This is often where change begins, not with dramatic revolutions, but through everyday acts of adjustment and defiance.

At the same time, this legal rigidity leaves state authorities with no choice but to rely on coercion and force to safeguard their institutions.

Violence is not power

This brings us to another key insight, also from Hannah Arendt: the distinction between power and violence. Power, she argued, comes from collective legitimacy, from people believing in a system. Violence is what is used when the legitimacy is gone.

So, when a government increasingly relies on surveillance, intimidation and punishment, it’s is not a sign of strength. It is a sign of weakness.

This can be seen in what the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently said about Iran: “If a regime can only stay in power through violence, then it is effectively finished.” And over time, the use of force tends to backfire

Some state custodians begin to doubt. Some begin to disagree. Some begin to resist internally leading to fragmentation within the system. When coercive measures are coupled with wrongdoing, such as corruption by state custodians, it further widens this fragmentation.

This tends to create uncertainty inside the system itself. People no longer trust their custodians. And when trust disappears, institutions become fragile. And any shock – economic, political, environmental – can cause societal rupture.

This pattern is not unique to Iran. In China, for instance, secondhand luxury consumption has become a way to challenge hyper-capitalist hierarchies.

In totalitarian systems, everyday life becomes a political arena. And that is existentially dangerous for a totalitarian system. Eventually, a point will be reached where people no longer follow rules because they believe in them. They may still comply, but only under threat of punishment if they don’t.

Across the world, totalitarian regimes face a similar challenge: how to control educated, connected populations who can compare realities. Ideological control becomes harder when people can see alternatives. This is why such systems obsess over the internet. Education destabilises ideologies.

Iran shows that totalitarian ideologies do not crumble overnight. They erode through decades of quiet resistance. Through what might be called the politics of ordinary life.

This is what makes this moment historically significant. The crisis in Iran is not merely economic. Economic hardship exists everywhere. What makes Iran different is that the institutional trust has already collapsed.

What we are witnessing is not simply unrest. It is the slow death of an ideology. And once belief is gone, no amount of force can bring it back.

The Conversation

Mahsa Ghaffari is affiliated with University of Portsmouth

ref. Iran protests are not just about economics – they’re a full-blown ideological crisis – https://theconversation.com/iran-protests-are-not-just-about-economics-theyre-a-full-blown-ideological-crisis-273955

Proposed new mission will create artificial solar eclipses in space

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nicola Baresi, Lecturer in Orbital Mechanics, Surrey Space Centre, University of Surrey

The solar corona viewed by Proba-3, a European Space Agency-led mission. ESA/Proba-3/ASPIICS/WOW algorithm, CC BY-NC-SA

When a solar storm strikes Earth, it can disrupt technology that’s vital for our daily lives. Solar storms occur when magnetic fields and electrically charged particles collide with the Earth’s magnetic field. This type of event falls into the category known as “space weather”.

The Earth is currently experiencing one of the most intense solar storms of the past two decades, reminding us of the need for ways to understand these events.

An international team of researchers (including us) is working on a spacecraft mission that would enable researchers to study the conditions that create solar storms, leading to improved forecasts of space weather.

The proposed mission, known as Mesom (Moon-enabled Sun Occultation Mission), aims to create total solar eclipses in space. This would allow researchers to view the Sun’s atmosphere in more detail than ever before.

The need for a better understanding of solar storms is evident from looking at past disruptions. In 1989, for example, the Canadian province of Quebec was forced into a nine-hour electricity blackout by a coronal mass ejection (CME) – a huge burst of hot plasma and magnetic field thrown off from the Sun’s atmosphere towards space.

The event, which affected both Canada and the US, is estimated to have cost tens of millions of US and Canadian dollars – both in lost business productivity and the need to replace damaged power equipment.

In May 2024, a succession of similar solar eruptions caused thousands of satellites in low-Earth orbit to abruptly drop in altitude. GPS outages cost US farmers alone an estimated US$500 million (£370 million).

But these storms were significantly weaker than one in 1859, also the result of a CME, which is known as the Carrington Event. Electrical currents flowing through telegraph wires caused a range of effects in telegraph offices across North America and Europe. Operators received electric shocks – with one in Washington DC receiving a serious injury – and sparks triggered small fires in some telegraph offices.

Today, a Carrington-like event would have far more dramatic consequences on our
technology-dependent world, as has been recognised by different UK governments since 2012.

Yet, our view of the Sun’s outer atmosphere, the solar corona – from which CMEs and other adverse space weather events originate – remains dazzled by the bright light emanated from the Sun itself. A new UK-led spacecraft mission aims to change that by recreating total solar eclipse conditions in space.

Better forecasting

During total solar eclipses, the incredibly high-intensity radiation emanating from the visible surface of the Sun is occulted (covered) by the Moon, leaving behind a faint glow of light that comes directly from the outer layers of the Sun’s atmosphere, the corona.

Observing the physical processes in the corona at different timescales and wavelengths is key to enabling better forecasting of space weather – a crucial part of protecting Earth against Carrington-like events – as well as solving longstanding mysteries of our star. These include how the hot plasma of its volatile atmosphere is confined and released by the evolving magnetic fields that thread through it.

Coronal mass ejections explained.

Unfortunately, total solar eclipses are predictable yet rare events that only last for a few minutes. All total eclipses predicted in the 21st century will last less than seven minutes each, and will occur only once every 18 months, on average.

Total solar eclipse measurements from the ground are also subject to weather conditions and suffer from distortions and loss of detail, caused by the interaction of the faint coronal light with the Earth’s atmosphere.

For decades, scientists and engineers have observed the corona by artificially
covering the Sun using clever optics and instrument design inspired by the
pioneering work of Bernard Lyot, a French astronomer who first come up with the
idea of a “coronagraph”.

Coronagraphs are telescopes equipped with an occulting disk to block out the overwhelming radiation emanated from the visible surface of the Sun, along with optical stops and filters that are positioned to suppress the light diffracted (scattered) by the disk itself.

In a coronagraph, the faint coronal light can finally reach the instrument’s focal plane, where it is converted into digital signals using photoelectric sensors. This is the working principle of the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (Lasco 3) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (Soho 4) spacecraft, which has returned stunning images of the Sun’s corona since its launch in 1995.

However, even ground-based and space-based coronagraphs cannot capture images of the deepest layers of the Sun’s atmosphere, due to artifacts – artificial effects such as streaks of light that appear in images – and instrument limitations that significantly degrade the quality of the measurements closer to the Sun’s surface.

Neither is the recently launched Proba-3 able to image the solar atmosphere’s deepest layers. Proba-3 is a European Space Agency-led technology demonstration mission that relies on a pair of satellites flying in a close formation (up to 150m apart during observations) to recreate total solar eclipse conditions in space.

Celestial neighbour

An alternative approach, first proposed by UK Airbus engineers Steve Eckersley and
Stephen Kemble, advocates the use of celestial bodies as natural occulters (covers).

The idea is to fly a spacecraft mission in the shadow cast by a celestial object to enable prolonged and high-quality measurements of the corona down to the Sun’s chromosphere – the layer of the Sun’s atmosphere located just below the corona. This would effectively recreate the same total solar eclipse conditions we experience occasionally on Earth, but without the degradations caused by the atmosphere of our planet.

Our celestial neighbour, the Moon, is a more perfect sphere (its polar radius is only 2km shorter than the equatorial one) and does not have a thick atmosphere, which makes it among the best natural occulting disks found in the solar system.

A pool of engineers at the Surrey Space Centre has investigated the possibility of using the Moon as a natural occulting disk for studying the solar corona, and came up with the Mesom concept.

Mesom is a mini-satellite mission that capitalises on the chaotic dynamics of the Sun-Earth-Moon system to collect high-quality measurements of the inner Sun corona once a month, for observation windows as long as 48 minutes – much longer than the sporadic total solar eclipse on Earth.

Funded by the UK Space Agency, the feasibility study of Mesom has grown into a wider international consortium led by UCL’s Mullard Space Science Laboratory and including the Universities of Surrey and Aberystwyth, plus partners from Spain, the US and Australia.

The project has recently been submitted to the European Space Agency for consideration as a future mission. The current mission design proposes a launch in the 2030s, returning at least 400 minutes of high-resolution, low-altitude coronal observations during its two-year nominal science operations.

To collect the same amount of data on Earth, eclipse hunters would have to wait for more than 80 years. This makes Mesom a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to unravel some of the secrets of the Sun’s atmosphere.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Proposed new mission will create artificial solar eclipses in space – https://theconversation.com/proposed-new-mission-will-create-artificial-solar-eclipses-in-space-272092

One country is trying to outlaw political lying, without curbing free speech

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Constitutional and Administrative Law, and Public Procurement, Bangor University

Lightspring/Shutterstock

For the past two years, the Welsh parliament – or Senedd – has been grappling with how to tackle deliberate lying by politicians and how to rebuild public trust in democracy.

There is broad agreement across parties in Wales that the current system offers few real consequences for dishonesty. As one Senedd member put it: “Lying flourishes in politics because we can get away with it”.

That frustration has now translated into legislative action. A bill that would make it illegal to make false or misleading statements during Welsh election campaigns has passed its first stage in the Senedd. But while the principle behind the law commands support, the detail – and the speed at which it is being pushed forward – has triggered growing unease.

The proposed ban will not be ready in time for the next Welsh election in May. Even if the legislation survives its remaining stages, it would not come into force until the 2030 election at the earliest. Ministers have suggested even that timetable may be optimistic.

This has led some Senedd members, including from the governing Labour party, to warn that Wales risks rushing through legislation that may feel symbolically satisfying but is legally flawed. One member cautioned against passing “bad law in a poor way” simply to “make people feel good about themselves”. Others have warned that the bill could unintentionally curtail free speech. If passed, Wales would become the first country in the world to ban political lying.

At the heart of the concern is this: how do you outlaw political lies without undermining democratic debate itself?

What does the bill actually do?

The bill follows recommendations made by the Senedd’s standards committee in February 2025. It called for practical reforms by 2026, alongside longer-term measures to deter deliberate deception by both Senedd members and election candidates.

Crucially, however, the bill does not introduce a general ban on lying by politicians once elected. Instead, it focuses narrowly on statements made during election campaigns. It also gives Welsh ministers the power to create a new criminal offence for false or misleading statements intended to influence election outcomes.

Some safeguards already exist. It is already illegal to make false statements about a candidate’s personal character or conduct during an election. The new proposal goes further. It potentially captures a much wider range of political speech, although exactly how wide remains unclear.

For conduct outside election periods, the committee recommended strengthening the existing system of investigation by the Senedd’s standards commissioner, rather than introducing criminal sanctions.

3D Illustration of shadowed words Truth and Lies
How do you outlaw political lies without undermining democratic debate itself?
Layne Harris/Shutterstock

Why free speech is now the sticking point

The bill’s critics are not objecting to the aim of honesty in politics. Their concern is that the legislation, as currently drafted, does not define what counts as a “false or misleading” statement.

Without clear boundaries, some Senedd members fear politicians may simply choose not to speak – or avoid contentious issues altogether – rather than risk prosecution. This concern is especially acute in areas where evidence is evolving, statistics are contested, or political judgement is required.

Political debate often involves thinking on one’s feet, interpreting incomplete information, or presenting one side of a complex argument. These are not the same as deliberate lies. But critics argue that, without precision, the law could struggle to distinguish between intentional deception and legitimate disagreement.

The Senedd’s standards committee – which was asked by the Welsh government to examine the proposal – went further. It said it was “not convinced” that creating a new criminal offence would restore public trust, warning instead that “the risks and unintended consequences currently outweigh the benefits”.

Among those risks are the pressure already facing the justice system. There is also difficulty proving that a statement is objectively false and there are potential conflicts with freedom of expression.

Under article 10 of the European convention on human rights, people – including politicians – have a right to freedom of expression, particularly in political debate. While that right is not absolute, any restriction must be clearly defined, proportionate and necessary. The committee warned that a vaguely drafted offence targeting political speech could be vulnerable to legal challenge on these grounds.

Even those who support tougher standards in Welsh politics accept this tension. If politicians fear that honest mistakes, forceful opinions presented as fact or strategic campaign arguments could later be judged criminally false, debate itself may be cooled. This may weaken democracy rather than strengthening it.




Read more:
Wales is overhauling its democracy – here’s what’s changing


Supporters of legal enforcement argue that these risks can be managed, but only with a much tighter definition and stronger safeguards. They emphasise that any offence must target deliberate, factual deception intended to influence voters, not opinion, rhetoric or political forecasting.

Drawing that line is easier said than done, however. Would competing interpretations of economic data be criminalised? What about optimistic promises based on uncertain forecasts? If such speech were caught by the law, it could narrow the space for open political disagreement.

For that reason, some experts and policy groups have suggested alternative models. These include systems overseen by independent bodies rather than criminal courts, or sanctions focused on correction and transparency rather than punishment.

The challenge facing the Senedd is a delicate one. It must decide whether it can craft a law that is narrow enough to target intentional deception, robust enough to withstand legal scrutiny, and flexible enough to preserve the rough-and-tumble of democratic debate.

Whether that balance can be achieved – and whether the bill survives its next stages – will determine whether Wales becomes a pioneer in political honesty or a cautionary tale about legislating in haste.

The Conversation

Stephen Clear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. One country is trying to outlaw political lying, without curbing free speech – https://theconversation.com/one-country-is-trying-to-outlaw-political-lying-without-curbing-free-speech-273526