More than 50% of Detroit students regularly miss class – and schools alone can’t solve the problem

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeremy Singer, Assistant Professor of Education, Wayne State University

Nobody learns in an empty classroom. Jeffrey Basinger/Newsday RM via Getty Images

Thousands of K-12 students in Detroit consistently miss days of school.

Chronic absenteeism is defined as missing at least 10% of school days – or 18 in a 180-day academic year. In Detroit, chronic absenteeism rose during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains a persistent challenge.

To encourage attendance, the Detroit Public Schools Community District is getting creative. This past year, Michigan’s largest school district awarded US$200 gift cards to nearly 5,000 high schoolers for attending all their classes during a two-week period, and Superintendent Nikolai Vitti also floated the idea of providing bikes to help students get to class. Some district students lack access to reliable transportation.

To understand the consequences of kids regularly missing school, The Conversation U.S. spoke with Sarah Lenhoff, associate professor of education at Wayne State University and director of the Detroit Partnership for Education Equity & Research, an education-focused research collaborative, and Jeremy Singer, an assistant professor of education at Wayne State University. Lenhoff and Singer wrote a book published in March about the socioeconomic drivers of chronic absenteeism in K-12 schools and how policymakers and communities, not just educators, can help.

Is chronic absenteeism the same as truancy?

No. Truancy is how schools have thought about and dealt with student attendance problems since the early days of public education in the United States in the 19th century and is still defined in state law across the country. It focuses on “unexcused” absences and compliance with mandatory school attendance laws. By contrast, chronic absenteeism includes any absence – whether “excused” or “unexcused” – because each absence can be consequential for student learning and development.

Chronic absenteeism is usually defined as missing 10% or more school days. The 10% threshold is somewhat arbitrary, since researchers know that the consequences of missing school accumulate with each day missed. But the specific definition of chronic absenteeism has been solidified in research and by policymakers. Most states now include a measure of chronic absenteeism in their education accountability systems.

How big of a problem is chronic absenteeism in Detroit’s K-12 public schools?

Detroit has among the highest chronic absenteeism rates in the country: more than 50% in recent school years. Prior to the pandemic, the average rate of chronic absenteeism nationwide was about 15%, and it was around 24% in 2024.

In one of our prior studies, we found Detroit’s chronic absenteeism rate was much higher than other major cities – even others with high absenteeism rates such as Milwaukee or Philadelphia.

This is related to the depth of social and economic inequalities that Detroit families face. Compared to other major cities, Detroit has higher rates of poverty, unemployment and crime. It has worse public health conditions. And even its winters are some of the coldest of major U.S. cities. All of these factors make it harder for kids to attend school.

Rates of chronic absenteeism spiked in Detroit during the COVID-19 pandemic, as they did statewide. The Detroit Public Schools Community District has come close to returning to its pre-pandemic levels of absenteeism. The rates were 66% in the 2023-24 school year compared to 62% in the school year right before the pandemic began, 2018-19.

Detroit’s charter schools have struggled more to bring down their chronic absenteeism rates post-pandemic, but the numbers are lower overall – 54% in the 2023-24 school year compared to 36% in 2018-19.

A Black woman wearing a red T-shirt and sunglasses holds up a sign reading 'OUR FIGHT FOR DETROIT KIDS'
A school social worker from Noble Elementary-Middle School protests outside Detroit Public Schools headquarters.
Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

How does missing school affect students?

The connection between attendance and achievement is clear: Students who miss more school on average score worse on reading and math tests. As early as pre-K, being chronically absent is linked to lower levels of school readiness, both academically and behaviorally. By high school, students who miss more school tend to earn lower grades and GPAs and are less likely to graduate.

And it’s not just the absent students who are affected. When more kids in a class miss school regularly, that is associated with lower overall test scores and worse measures of skills such as executive functioning for other students in that class.

Does chronic absenteeism vary by family income or other factors?

Rates of chronic absenteeism are much higher among students from low-income families. In these cases, absenteeism is often driven by factors outside a student’s control such as unstable housing, unreliable transportation, health issues, lack of access to child care, or parents who work nontraditional hours. These challenges make it harder for students to get to school consistently, even when families are deeply committed to education.

School-based factors also influence attendance. Students are more likely to be chronically absent in schools with weaker relationships with families or a less positive school culture. However, even schools with strong practices may struggle if they serve communities facing deep socioeconomic hardship.

Ultimately, we don’t view chronic absenteeism as an issue of student motivation or family values. Rather, we see it as an issue related to the unequal conditions that shape students’ lives.

Does punishing absent kids or their parents work?

Many schools have suspended students for absences, or threatened their parents with fines or jail time. In some cases, families have lost social services due to their children’s chronic absenteeism.

Research shows these strategies are not only ineffective, they can make the problem worse.

For example, we found that when schools respond with punishment instead of support, they often alienate the very students and families who are already struggling to stay connected. Harsh responses can deepen mistrust between families and schools. When absences are treated as a personal failing caused by a lack of motivation or irresponsibility rather than symptoms of deeper challenges, students and parents may disengage further.

Instead, educators might ask: What’s getting in the way of consistent attendance, and how can we help? That shift from blame to understanding can help improve attendance.

What can policymakers, school districts and community organizations do to reduce chronic absenteeism?

Chronic absenteeism is a societal issue, not just a school problem. In other words, we need to recognize that chronic absenteeism is not a problem that schools can solve alone. While educators work to improve conditions within schools, policymakers and community leaders can take responsibility for the broader factors that influence attendance.

This could look like investing more resources and fostering collaboration across sectors such as health care, housing, transportation and social services to better support students and their families. Community organizations can play a role too, offering wraparound services such as mental health care, access to transportation, and after-school programming, all of which can support families. In the meantime, educators can focus on what they can control: strengthening communication with families, building supportive relationships and helping families connect with existing services that can remove attendance barriers.

The Conversation

Sarah Lenhoff receives funding from the Skillman Foundation, the Joyce Foundation, the Kresge Foundation, the William T. Grant Foundation, the American Institutes for Research, and the Urban Institute.

Jeremy Singer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. More than 50% of Detroit students regularly miss class – and schools alone can’t solve the problem – https://theconversation.com/more-than-50-of-detroit-students-regularly-miss-class-and-schools-alone-cant-solve-the-problem-260773

UK and France pledges won’t stop Netanyahu bombing Gaza – but Donald Trump or Israel’s military could

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Rogers, Professor of Peace Studies, University of Bradford

Keir Starmer says unless there’s a ceasefire and a peace process leading to a two-state solution, Britain will recognise the state of Palestine at the UN in September. The UK prime minister is following a similar, alebit unconditional, pledge from the French president, Emmanuel Macron.

They are reacting to what Starmer referred to as the “intolerable situation” in Gaza. In Scotland, Donald Trump has also complained at the humanitarian catastrophe of people starving in Gaza, saying: “We’ve got to get the kids fed.”

Does this mean western politicians are finally prepared to act? Quite possibly. Will it have any discernible effect on Benjamin Netanyahu? Doubtful.

Trump still appears to trust Netanyahu to feed the people of Gaza, or so he told reporters as he flew back from his weekend of “golf buggy diplomacy” on July 29. And as long as the US president supports Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister can act with few restraints.

True, the vigorous international reaction to the food crisis in Gaza has finally had some effect. But the Israeli response so far has been largely symbolic.

It has comprised air drops of aid by Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and some “tactical” or “humanitarian” pauses in the assault in parts of the Gaza Strip to allow for the delivery of aid. Air drops are good for publicity, but the amount of aid they actually deliver is very small and hugely expensive.

How did we get to this point? The current phase of the conflict started in mid-March, when the Israeli government began blocking all aid to Gaza.

That lasted two months until some shipments were allowed. In recent weeks, an average of about 70 trucks a day have crossed the border. But the reality is 500-600 trucks a day are required to support and restore heath to 2 million people.

Meanwhile, more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed – mostly shot – since May while trying to get food at one of the four overcrowded distribution sites run by the private, US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). Before being replaed by the GHF system, UN agencies ran 400 distribution points across the territory.

What the daily pauses in some areas, which began on July 27, actually represent is far from clear, given that fighting continues in much of the Strip. There is little sign that Netanyahu’s government wants an early end to the war. From its perspective, there can only be peace when all the hostages are returned and Hamas has been destroyed.

But Hamas is proving far more resolute than expected. Its survival is little short of remarkable given the huge force the Israelis have used to try and destroy it.

The usual Israeli military priority in dealing with an insurgency is to follow what is known colloquially as the “Dahiya doctrine”. If an insurgency cannot be handled without serious casualties, then the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) directs its operations at civilian infrastructure and the general population to undermine support for the insurgents.

The tactic is so called because it was developed as a way of dealing with a Hezbollah stronghold in the Dahiya suburb of west Beirut in 1982. The reduction of much of Gaza to ruins is taking the doctrine to extremes, yet it is failing – Hamas is still there.

This is reportedly common knowledge in IDF circles, but rarely admitted in public. A notable exception is the senior retired IDF officer, Major-General Itzhak Brik.

Brik’s publicised view is that Hamas has already replaced its thousands of casualties with new recruits. They may not be trained in the conventional sense, but they have learnt their craft while surviving in a war zone and seeing so many of their friends and family killed and wounded.

No end in sight

Israel’s demands may be that it will end the war if Hamas surrenders and disarms, then goes into exile. The problem with this is Hamas doesn’t think Israel would end the war.

Instead, it believes Gaza would be forcibly cleared and resettled, and the occupied West Bank would see a huge increase in settlers. In this scenario, a two-state solution would be a pipe dream, and Israel would be the regional superpower able to rise to any future challenge.

So, is there any prospect of Israel being forced to compromise, to accept a UN-monitored ceasefire and seek a negotiated settlement? External political pressure is certainly rising, especially the potential formal recognition of the state of Palestine by the UK and France.

But in both cases, the conditions for the road to peace are such that they are effectively non-starters. Macron envisages a “demilitarised Palestine” living alongside Israel. Starmer has called for Hamas to disarm and play no role in the future governance of Palestinians. Neither plan has the slightest chance of getting off the ground.

In any case, without Trump’s full backing it would still mean little. Economic and social sanctions by a state or group will have little impact because there will always be states or organisations sufficiently supportive of Israel to bypass them.

We are left with two possible routes to a settlement. One is that Trump is sufficiently motivated to insist Netanyahu negotiates.

That is unlikely, unless the US president somehow gets the idea that his own reputation is being damaged. Even then, the influence of the Israel lobby in the US, especially the support for Israel of tens of millions of Christian Zionists, is formidable.

The other route to a peace deal is if the war is becoming problematic for the Israeli military. If more of the IDF’s top brass recognise that this war, right from the start, was always going to be unwinnable, this might yet move the conflict in the direction of a settlement.


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The Conversation

Paul Rogers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. UK and France pledges won’t stop Netanyahu bombing Gaza – but Donald Trump or Israel’s military could – https://theconversation.com/uk-and-france-pledges-wont-stop-netanyahu-bombing-gaza-but-donald-trump-or-israels-military-could-262131

Viral ‘kettlebell challenge’ could do you more harm than good – here’s why

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jen Wilson, Senior Exercise and Health Practitioner, Nottingham Trent University

The challenge may sound like a quick and easy way to get fit, but it may actually be the least effective way of adding kettlebells to your workouts. Tongpool Piasupun/ Shutterstock

The “100 kettlebell swings a day” challenge is the latest viral fitness endeavour on social media. The challenge is simple: pick up a kettlebell and do 100 swings (bringing the kettlebell from between your legs and using your core and glutes to swing it up to chest or shoulder height) every day. These can be done either in one stint, or broken up throughout the day.

Proponents of the challenge say it leads to fat loss, improved muscle mass and a stronger posterior chain (glutes, back and hamstrings) – all in a short daily session.

At first glance, it sounds like a time-efficient, no-fuss approach to getting fitter with minimal equipment. But while there’s some merit in consistency, this type of challenge often ignores fundamental principles of exercise and training – and could even do more harm than good.

Here’s a few reasons why it might be best to skip the kettlebell challenge – and what you can try instead.

1. It’s not personalised to you

One of the biggest flaws in the 100 kettlebell swings challenge is that it treats everyone the same, regardless of experience level, injury history, mobility or training goals. What’s manageable for an advanced athlete could cause problems for a beginner with poor hip mobility or lower back issues.

Daily, high-rep dynamic movements which use explosive power, such as kettlebell swings, require good technique, good posture and body awareness. Without that, you’re simply reinforcing poor movement patterns. Worse, you could be inviting injury when such movements are done repeatedly.

Effective training should be personalised – or at least adapted to your movement abilities and fitness requirements in order to have the most impact.

2. No room for progress

The human body adapts quickly. If you do the same 100 reps with the same amount of weight every single day, the challenge becomes less effective over time. That initial burn you felt in week one? It’ll be gone by week three.

In well-designed training programmes, there’s a principle called “progressive overload”. This involves gradually increasing stress on the body, either through the amount of weight you’re lifting, the number of repetitions you do of an exercise, the number of sets you complete or the complexity of your movements.

The 100-swing challenge skips this entirely. This means you’ll probably hit a plateau fairly quickly.

3. Risk of injury

Doing 100 swings every day, especially without rest or proper technique, can lead to injuries such as muscle strains or joint pain in the back and shoulders.

Too much repetitive movement, insufficient recovery time and inexperience can also lead to an increased risk of an overuse injury – a condition caused by repeated stress on muscles, joints or tissues. This often results in pain, swelling, or stiffness and could potentially mean taking weeks or even months off from working out to fully recover.

Picking up this challenge might be appealing but it also ticks a lot of boxes for overuse injury.

4. It undermines recovery

Recovery between workouts is not optional. In fact, it’s where the actual adaptation happens. Training breaks the body down, while recovery builds it back stronger.

Kettlebell swings, especially if performed explosively and with heavier loads, place stress on your central nervous system. Doing them every single day without rest days, mobility work (such as stretching) or variation can lead to chronic fatigue, poor sleep, nagging injuries and even reduced performance in other areas of training.

A group of young, fit people perform kettlebell swings in a gym.
This daily challenge doesn’t leave the body enough time for integral recovery.
wavebreakmedia/ Shutterstock

If you’ve started the challenge and find you’re constantly sore, tight or worn down, the challenge may be doing more harm than good.

5. It’s a one-dimensional solution

Fitness isn’t just about repetition. True strength and conditioning involves a variety of movements, such as pushing, pulling, squatting, rotating and stabilising.

The 100-swing challenge trains only one plane of motion and one movement pattern. While that’s better than nothing, it’s nowhere near comprehensive. Moreover, doing the same task over and over can become mindless. You’re not necessarily getting stronger or fitter – you’re just going through the motions.

A smarter way to use kettlebells

In fairness, the challenge does have some value in the right context. For beginners who need structure, it can help establish a daily habit. It requires minimal equipment, little space and can raise heart rate, build endurance and activate the posterior chain.

But for it to be sustainable and effective, a few things must be in place:

  • Your form must be solid
  • The kettlebell weight must be appropriate for your fitness level
  • You should vary the volume or intensity over time
  • You should include rest days
  • It should be part of a broader training plan – not your only form of training

If you enjoy kettlebell swings, there are more intelligent and safer ways to include them in your training than doing 100 reps every day.

Try incorporating swings into interval sessions, circuits or strength workouts with varied repetitions and loads. Instead of doing 100 swings alone, aim for 100 total reps using a mix of exercises, such as goblet squats, rows and presses. This approach not only keeps things more balanced, but also reduces the risk of injury from overuse and gives different muscle groups time to recover .

The “100 kettlebell swings a day” challenge might sound appealing in its simplicity, but simple doesn’t always mean smart. Without personalisation, progression and recovery, it can quickly turn into a repetitive grind that risks doing more harm than good.

Yes, training should be challenging, but it should also be strategic. Your body deserves more than just a checkbox of daily repetitions – it needs the right moves done the right way.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Viral ‘kettlebell challenge’ could do you more harm than good – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/viral-kettlebell-challenge-could-do-you-more-harm-than-good-heres-why-260010

Why do corporations act against the public interest? We may have the answers (it’s not just greed)

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen R. Buzdugan, Senior Lecturer in International Business, Manchester Metropolitan University

Jeppe Gustafsson/Shutterstock

For the past two years, Tesla has been embroiled in a bitter dispute with the Swedish labour union IF Metall. It is of a scale that the union hasn’t witnessed since the 1930s.

At the heart of the dispute is Tesla’s refusal to sign a collective bargaining agreement. This is a pillar of the “Swedish model” of labour relations, which is prized by Sweden’s citizens due to its perceived contribution to social wellbeing and shared prosperity.

Instead, Tesla has opted to circumvent striking union workers and bring its cars into the country using non-unionised labour and labour from neighbouring countries. Tesla’s actions to undermine a system that Sweden strongly supports are what we call “anti-societal”. That is, they might be said to undermine democratic norms and the broader public interest.

More broadly, it isn’t unusual to see corporations acting in ways that negatively affect the public interest, with effects such as environmental degradation, poor working conditions or violations of anti-trust laws. Multinational corporations are often in the news for violating or avoiding government regulations and working behind the scenes to influence regulation to their advantage.

Among many examples is the Volkswagen group’s “Dieselgate” emissions scandal. The German carmaker cheated on vehicle tests to make diesel cars seem less polluting than they were in reality. The company later acknowledged it had “screwed up” and breached customers’ trust.

And it is believed that oil and gas giant Exxon had evidence in the 1970s that fossil fuels contribute to climate change, but mounted a a campaign of disinformation in order to stifle regulation of their products. (In 2021, Exxon CEO Darren Woods told US politicians that the company “does not spread disinformation regarding climate change”.)

These examples raise the question of why corporations engage in activities against the public interest. Yet browse through any standard textbook used in a university business or management course, and you will struggle to find answers.

Instead, for several decades the standard viewpoint has been that multinational corporations are mainly economic entities without any particular interest in doing either harm or good. Any anti-societal corporate behaviour has typically been chalked up to a few “bad apples”.

The fact that corporations have political power and systematically use it in their interests in ways that harm society has been largely left out of the picture.

Our recent research shows that the underlying nature of the global economy can influence any corporation to behave anti-societally. We argue that under certain circumstances, a corporation like Tesla might face a threat that compromises its market position, assets or even its existence.

IF Metall, for example, poses a significant threat to Tesla’s business model. If the Swedish trade union wins this dispute it could strengthen the bargaining position of trade unions across Europe. In this case, a corporation like Tesla will exert its power to protect itself. But this often comes with negative consequences for society.

We call this the “self-preservation perspective” of the multinational corporation. It illuminates the ways in which corporations use political power to their advantage, often to society’s cost.

The balance of power

The self-preservation perspective can help people to understand how corporate political power should be challenged through both regulation and activism. Trade union action, for instance, can act as a powerful political force to balance corporate power.

The idea of “self-preservation” comes from international relations theory and an overlooked argument by the late Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith .These suggest that any organisation – a nation state or a multinational corporation – will seek primarily to preserve itself in the face of threats.

We apply the idea of self-preservation to modern multinational corporations that seek to survive in a global economy marked by fierce competition and complex regulation.

This perspective predicts that, when faced with a regulatory threat, a multinational corporation will weigh up four strategic options.

First, it may try to influence the regulation through sometimes ethically questionable political activities. Second, it may consider avoiding or ignoring the regulation by exploiting loopholes or by taking strategic legal action. Third, it can decide to comply with the regulation. And last, it can think about exiting the market altogether.

We predict that the corporation’s choice depends on its relative level of political power and resources, as well as the profitability of the market it is operating in. However, it also depends on how powerful it is in relation to governments, trade unions and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).

MOT documentation showing volkswagen emission details
Volkswagen tried to cheat its way around emissions regulation.
SGM/Shutterstock

If government enforcement or societal pressure are very strong, this may steer a corporation toward adapting to the regulation, rather than more negative influencing or avoiding behaviour. One example is Apple’s recent changes to its App Store rules in Europe, to comply with the European Union’s Digital Markets Act.

In the case of Tesla versus the Swedish union, Tesla has exerted its power to avoid regulation. In doing so it has considered the scale of the threat to its business model across Europe and its perceived power relative to the trade union. This possibly stems from Tesla’s strong ties to the technology sector, where engagement with unions is often seen as an unnecessary threat to innovation.

If Tesla’s avoidance strategy succeeds, it would effectively dissolve the Swedish model, creating a system that’s less secure for workers. From our self-preservation perspective, IF Metall’s success in the dispute will depend on how well – and how widely – the unions, government and citizens can galvanise opposition. By balancing corporate power in this way, societies might hope to protect their interests against the might of multinational giants.


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The Conversation

David Freund receives funding from Handelsbanken Research Foundation.

Ulf Holm receives funding from Handelsbanken’s Research Foundations.

Stephen R. Buzdugan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why do corporations act against the public interest? We may have the answers (it’s not just greed) – https://theconversation.com/why-do-corporations-act-against-the-public-interest-we-may-have-the-answers-its-not-just-greed-261866

From the Green party to Corbyn’s new launch – is it time Westminster took joint leaders more seriously?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Stern, Visiting Professor of Management Practice, Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London

Are two heads better than one? This is a question that members of the Green party will be asking themselves over the summer as they take part in the election of a new leader … or leaders.

Former co-leader Carla Denyer MP announced in May that she would not be standing again. Her co-leader, Adrian Ramsay MP, is now joined on the prospective leadership ticket by another Green MP, Ellie Chowns. (It is a Green party rule that where there is a joint leadership the job holders must be of different genders.)


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They are being challenged by Zack Polanski, currently deputy leader of the party and a member of the London Assembly, who has positioned himself not merely as a solo candidate but also as a rather more radical one. While his politics have little in common with those of Reform party leader Nigel Farage, Polanksi has suggested the Greens could learn from his approach.

The contest presents us with an intriguing conundrum – or even a paradox. In the real world – that is, away from Westminster – expecting a single human being to display all the qualities and attributes required to lead a complicated business or organisation is rightly seen as unrealistic. Leadership is a team activity, to be carried out collectively.

This is one reason why it’s so troubling to see excessive pay packets being delivered to bosses who should not be taking all the credit for the success of a business.

Of course, the leadership provided by the ultimate boss matters, but good corporate governance involves testing the suggestions and instincts of the chief executive with the ideas of other senior executives or directors. This is known, perhaps rather euphemistically on occasion, as “challenge”.

But in Westminster politics a rather more traditional (we could say old-fashioned) view of leadership prevails. Here the orthodoxy holds that something called “strong leadership” stems mainly from a dominant single figure who is firmly in charge.

This belief is based in part on the mythology which surrounds the leadership of Margaret Thatcher, the “Iron Lady” who supposedly never took a step back (although she did), and who dismissed “wets” and “moaning minnies” who expressed doubt about her policy choices. Tony Blair in turn paid homage to this mythology, famously once declaring: “I’ve got no reverse gear”.

In Westminster changing your mind, even in the light of new evidence, is invariably labelled a U-turn, and is considered to be bad. This is also how the British media frames their actions.

So here is the Green party’s conundrum: against this backdrop, they would arguably get better media coverage and perhaps win more support from voters if they installed a single leader in the more conventional way. This is the case that could be made for Polanski.

But at the same time, the Greens are not meant to be just like all the other parties. They have a different view of the world, so why should they conform to the other people’s view of what leadership looks like?

Behind every strong leader

Successful businesses have often been led by double acts. Behind some swaggering CEOs there is often a cautious and competent chief financial officer making sure the numbers add up.

When the Granada media group was growing to a dominant market position in the 1990s, its CEO, Gerry Robinson, got most of the attention but his trusted managing director, Charles Allen, was an equally important, if less prominent, figure. Berkshire Hathway, one of the world’s most successful investment vehicles, has been led by the well-known Warren Buffett for decades, but for most of that time he had his old but less famous friend Charlie Munger at his side (Munger died in 2023).

Westminster’s latest prototype party, the alliance of independent pro-Gaza MPs, is also considering a joint leadership structure with former Labour MPs Zarah Sultana and Jeremy Corbyn at the helm. The difficulty here is that it is not yet clear exactly how the two figures would share their leadership duties. The much-discussed launch is planned for later this year.

Voting for the new Green party leader(s) will take place through all of August, with the result declared on September 2. We will see if the arguments in favour of a more conventional leadership structure (albeit with more radical policies and tone) prevail over the less conventional structure (but with a steadier political approach).

Either way, the Greens will continue to provide an alternative voice and approach in our still developing multiparty era. And maybe that’s a good thing too. When you look around the world at some other self-styled “strong leaders” – Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, to name but three – a break from having similar aspiring “strong leaders” at Westminster might be welcome.


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Stefan Stern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. From the Green party to Corbyn’s new launch – is it time Westminster took joint leaders more seriously? – https://theconversation.com/from-the-green-party-to-corbyns-new-launch-is-it-time-westminster-took-joint-leaders-more-seriously-262058

The Assassin: Keeley Hawes drama is a milestone for menopause on screen

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Beth Johnson, Professor of Television & Media Studies, University of Leeds

Keeley Hawes’s new Channel 4 and Prime Video drama, The Assassin, introduces a premise that feels both bold and overdue. It follows Julie (Hawes), a menopausal woman, overlooked and emotionally stalled, who worked as a hitwoman in her youth and unexpectedly comes out of retirement to return to the profession.

It’s pulpy, stylised and laced with dark humour. But beneath the genre trappings lies something more striking – a cultural pivot in how menopause and midlife womanhood is being written and visualised on British television.

Historically, menopause has been television’s silent transition. Onscreen, it was something female characters either didn’t have, didn’t talk about, or, when acknowledged, were mocked for. Sitcoms of the 1980s and 1990s, such as Birds of a Feather or Absolutely Fabulous, played menopausal symptoms for laughs.

In drama, menopause tended to arrive invisibly: women stopped being protagonists, were subtly phased out of storylines, or returned only as wives, mothers, or medical cases.

Television has always been shaped by industry ideas about youth, sex appeal and marketability – ideas that left little room for midlife women unless confined to supporting roles – or contained within the domestic, ensemble structures of soap operas.

While shows like New Tricks (2003), Last Tango in Halifax (2012) and Call the Midwife (2012) gradually shifted the dial, menopause itself remained offscreen: considered either too niche, too biological, or too awkward to dramatise.


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What The Assassin offers is not just a menopausal character, but midlife as premise. Rather than sidelining her life stage, the show lets its rhythms – emotional turbulence, internal chaos, flickers of disorientation, flashes of wit and a deep, simmering strength – seep into the storytelling itself.

The story ties her hormonal shifts to emotional volatility, a sense of personal invisibility, fractured family life and existential grief. And then she snaps. But it’s not collapse; it’s re-ignition. She becomes lethal — not in spite of midlife, but because of it.

I research the way midlife female protagonists are presented in British television drama. I’ve recently written about Russell T. Davies’ work in particular, arguing that his dramas (such as It’s a Sin, 2021, and Nolly, 2023) reclaim neglected figures by placing their emotional complexity and cultural marginalisation at the centre.

Nolly offered a compelling reappraisal of Noele Gordon (played by Helena Bonham Carter), the soap star unceremoniously dumped from her own show – a decision now widely understood to be rooted in sexism and ageism. Davies refused to let her disappear quietly, instead making her menopause-era strength and defiance the dramatic core of his show.

The trailer for The Assasain.

Similarly, my work with Professor Kristyn Gorton on Sally Wainwright’s series Happy Valley (2014) explores how Catherine Cawood (played by Sarah Lancashire) embodies emotional realism, grief, rage and midlife fatigue – not as flaws, but as substance. These female characters don’t just react to events; they are the story. Their emotions are not incidental but generative, propelling the narrative, shaping its tone and demanding audience recognition.




Read more:
Happy Valley: the art of Sally Wainwright’s perfect TV ending


The Assassin fits this trajectory. It joins a growing body of British TV that blends genre hybridity with emotional and political resonance. Like Killing Eve (2018) or I Hate Suzie (2020), it uses the structure of the thriller to think critically about gender, ageing and identity.

The menopausal hitwoman is, of course, a metaphor as much as a plot. She is rage personified: a woman no longer governed by the social niceties that often temper female representation. She’s also funny, erratic and uncontained.

A menopausal reckoning

Importantly, The Assassin doesn’t simply celebrate her transformation. It stages it as messy, uncomfortable and morally complex. This is menopause not as a redemptive arc but as a reckoning, with a body that’s changing, a past that won’t stay buried, and a society that prefers women neat, young and silent.

There’s still work to do. British television remains far more comfortable exploring middle-aged male protagonists than women in the same life stage. But what’s changing, and what I frequently explore in my research, is the tone and ambition with which female midlife is now being scripted. Where menopause was once a punchline or absence, it’s becoming a story. And not just any story, but one shaped by genre, irony, feeling and risk.

Thanks to its long-form, visual medium, television can explore the ordinary in ways that resonate deeply, from the exhaustion of grief to the frustration of being dismissed. Menopause, long under-explored, offers rich dramatic territory: emotional volatility, bodily transformation, the redefinition of self. What The Assassin understands is that these aren’t signs of decline. They’re tools of narrative power.

By giving us a menopausal character who is central, subversive and narratively in control, The Assassin signals a broader shift. It reminds us that midlife is not an endpoint, but a site of potential – for drama, for comedy and for cultural critique. British television is, at last, beginning to give menopause the storylines it deserves.


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The Conversation

Beth Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The Assassin: Keeley Hawes drama is a milestone for menopause on screen – https://theconversation.com/the-assassin-keeley-hawes-drama-is-a-milestone-for-menopause-on-screen-262101

Kamchatka earthquake is among top 10 strongest ever recorded. Here’s what they have in common

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

Today at about 11:30am local time, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off the coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula in the country’s far east.

Originating at a depth of roughly 20 kilometres, today’s powerful earthquake – among the ten strongest in recorded history and the largest worldwide since 2011 – has caused building damage and injuries in the largest nearby city, Petropavlosk-Kamchatsky, just 119 kilometres from the epicentre.

Tsunami warnings and evacuations have reverberated through Russia, Japan and Hawaii, with advisories issued for the Philippines, Indonesia, and as far away as New Zealand and Peru.

The Pacific region is highly prone to powerful earthquakes and resulting tsunamis because it’s located in the so-called Ring of Fire, a region of heightened seismic and volcanic activity. All ten most powerful earthquakes recorded in modern history were located on the Ring of Fire.

Here’s why the underlying structure of our planet makes this part of the world so volatile.

Why does Kamchatka get such strong earthquakes?

Immediately offshore the Kamchatka Peninsula is the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench, a tectonic plate boundary where the Pacific Plate is being thrust beneath the Okhotsk Plate.

While tectonic plates move continuously relative to one another, the interface at tectonic plates is often “stuck”. The strain related to plate motion builds up until it exceeds the strength of the plate interface, at which point it is released as a sudden rupture – an earthquake.

Because of the large areas of interface at plate boundaries, both in length and depth, the rupture can span large areas of the plate boundary. This results in some of the largest and potentially most damaging earthquakes on earth.

Another factor that affects the rates and sizes of subduction zone earthquakes is the speed at which the two plates are moving relative to each other.

In the case of Kamchatka, the Pacific Plate is moving at approximately 75 millimetres per year relative to the Okhotsk plate. This is a relatively high speed by tectonic standards, and causes large earthquakes to happen more frequently here than in some other subduction zones. In 1952, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurred in the same subduction zone, only about 30 kilometres away from today’s magnitude 8.8 earthquake.

Other examples of subduction plate boundary earthquakes include the 2011 magnitude 9.1 Tohoku-Oki Japan earthquake, and the 2004 magnitude 9.3 Sumatra-Andaman Indonesia “Boxing Day” earthquake. Both of these initiated at a relatively shallow depth and ruptured the plate boundary right to the surface.

They uplifted one side of the sea floor relative to the other, displacing the ocean above it and resulting in devastating tsunamis. In the case of the Boxing Day earthquake, the sea floor rupture happened along a length spanning roughly 1,400km.

What is likely to happen next?

At time of writing, approximately six hours after the earthquake struck, there have already been 35 aftershocks larger than magnitude 5.0, according to the United States Geological Survey.

Aftershocks happen when stress within Earth’s crust is redistributed following the mainshock. They are often as large as one magnitude unit smaller than the mainshock. In the case of today’s earthquake, that means aftershocks larger than magnitude 7.5 are possible.

For an earthquake of this size, aftershocks can continue for weeks to months or longer, but they typically will reduce in both magnitude and frequency over time.

Today’s earthquake also produced a tsunami, which has already affected coastal communities on the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kurile Islands, and Hokkaido, Japan.

Over the coming hours, the tsunami will propagate across the Pacific, reaching Hawaii approximately six hours after the earthquake struck and continuing as far as Chile and Peru.

Tsunami scientists will continue to refine their models of the tsunami’s effects as it propagates, and civil defence authorities will provide authoritative advice on the expected local effects.




Read more:
Tsunami warnings are triggering mass evacuations across the Pacific – even though the waves look small. Here’s why


What are the lessons from this earthquake for other parts of the world?

Fortunately, earthquakes as large as today’s occur infrequently. However, their effects locally and across the globe can be devastating.

Apart from its magnitude, several aspects of today’s Kamchatka earthquake will make it a particularly important focus of research.

For instance, the area has been seismically very active in recent months, and a magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred on 20 July. How this previous activity affected the location and timing of today’s earthquake will be a crucial focus of that research.

Like Kamchatka and northern Japan, New Zealand also sits above a subduction zone – in fact, above two subduction zones. The larger of these, the Hikurangi subduction zone, extends offshore along the east coast of the North Island.

Based on the characteristics of this plate interface, and geological records of past earthquakes, it is likely the Hikurangi subduction zone is capable of producing earthquakes at magnitude 9. It hasn’t done so in historic times, but if that happened it would produce a tsunami.

The threat of a major subduction zone earthquake never goes away. Today’s earthquake in Kamchatka is an important reminder to everyone living in such earthquake-prone areas to stay safe and heed warnings from civil defence authorities.

The Conversation

Dee Ninis works at the Seismology Research Centre, is Vice-President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society, and a Committee Member for the Geological Society of Australia – Victoria Division.

John Townend receives funding from the Marsden and Catalyst Funds of the Royal Society Te Apārangi, the Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake, and the NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. He is a former president and director of the Seismological Society of America and president of the New Zealand Geophysical Society.

ref. Kamchatka earthquake is among top 10 strongest ever recorded. Here’s what they have in common – https://theconversation.com/kamchatka-earthquake-is-among-top-10-strongest-ever-recorded-heres-what-they-have-in-common-262223

Tsunami warnings are triggering mass evacuations across the Pacific – even though the waves look small. Here’s why

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow in Urban Risk and Resilience, The University of Melbourne

Last night, one of the ten largest earthquakes ever recorded struck Kamchatka, the sparsely populated Russian peninsula facing the Pacific. The magnitude 8.8 quake had its epicentre in the sea just off the Kamchatka coast.

Huge quakes such as these can cause devastating tsunamis. It’s no surprise this quake has triggered mass evacuations in Russia, Japan and Hawaii.

But despite the enormous strength of the quake, the waves expected from the resulting tsunami are projected to be remarkably small. Four metre-high waves have been reported in Russia. But the waves are projected to be far smaller elsewhere, ranging from 30 centimetres to 1 metre in China, and between 1 and 3 metres in parts of Japan, Hawaii and the Solomon Islands, as well as Ecuador and Chile on the other side of the Pacific.

map showing tsunami travel times from Kamchatka epicentre.
This map shows the estimated time in hours for tsunami waves from an earthquake in Kamchatka to reach different nations.
NOAA, CC BY-NC-ND

So why have authorities in Japan and parts of the United States announced evacuation orders? For one thing, tsunami waves can suddenly escalate, and even the smaller tsunami waves can pack surprising force. But the main reason is that late evacuation orders can cause panic and chaos. It’s far better to err on the side of caution.

This video shows tsunami waves hitting Severo-Kurilsk, a town on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia.

Too early is far better than too late

When tsunami monitoring centres issue early warnings about waves, there’s often a wide range given. That represents the significant uncertainty about what the final wave size will be.

As earthquake scientists Judith Hubbard and Kyle Bradley write:

the actual wave height at the shore depends on the specific bathymetry [underwater topography] of the ocean floor and shape of the coastline. Furthermore, how that wave impacts the coast depends on the topography on land. Do not second-guess a tsunami warning: evacuate to higher ground and wait for the all-clear.

If the decision was left to ordinary people to decide whether to evacuate, many might look at the projected wave heights and think “what’s the problem?”. This is why evacuation is usually a job for experts.

Behavioural scientists have found people are more likely to follow evacuation advice if they perceive the risk is real, if they trust the authorities and if there are social cues such as friends, family or neighbours evacuating.

If evacuations are done well, authorities will direct people down safe roads to shelters or safe zones located high enough above the ocean.

When people outside official evacuation zones flee on their own, this is known as a shadow evacuation. It often happens when people misunderstand warnings, don’t trust official boundaries, or feel safer leaving “just in case”.

While understandable, shadow evacuations can overload roads, clog evacuation routes, and strain shelters and resources intended for those at greatest risk.

Vulnerable groups such as older people and those with a disability often evacuate more slowly or not at all, putting them at much greater risk.

In wealthy nations such as Japan where tsunamis are a regular threat, drills and risk education have made evacuations run more smoothly and get more people to evacuate.

Japan also has designated vertical shelters – buildings to which people can flee – as well as coastal sirens and signs pointing to tsunami “safe zones”.

By contrast, most developing nations affected by tsunamis don’t have these systems or infrastructure in place. Death tolls are inevitably higher as a result.

More accurate warnings, fewer false alarms

A false alarm occurs when a tsunami warning is issued, but no hazardous waves arrive. False alarms often stem from the need to act fast. Because tsunamis can reach coastlines within minutes of an undersea earthquake, early warnings are based on limited and imprecise data — mainly the quake’s location and magnitude — before the tsunami’s actual size or impact is known.

In the past, tsunami alerts were issued using worst-case estimates based on simple tables linking quake size and location to fixed alert levels. These did not account for complex uncertainties in how the seafloor moved or how energy translated into how much water was displaced.

Even when waves are small at sea, they can behave unpredictably near shore. Tide gauge readings are easily distorted by nearby bays, seafloor shape and water depth. This approach often came at the cost of frequent false alarms.

A stark example came in 1986, when Hawaii undertook a major evacuation following an earthquake off the Aleutian Islands. While the tsunami did arrive on time, the waves didn’t cause any flooding. The evacuation triggered massive gridlock, halted businesses and cost the state an estimated A$63 million.

In 1987, the United States launched the DART program. This network of deep-sea buoys across the Pacific and, later, globally, measure changes in ocean pressure in real time, allowing scientists to verify whether a tsunami has actually been generated and to estimate its size far more accurately.

When there’s a tsunami false alarm, it makes people more sceptical of evacuation orders and compliance drops. Some people want to see the threat with their own eyes. But this delays action – and heightens the danger.

Shifting from simple tables and inferences to observational data has significantly reduced false alarms and improved public confidence. Today’s tsunami warnings combine quake analysis with real-time ocean data.

What have we learned from past tsunamis?

In 2004, a huge 9.1 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Aceh in Indonesia triggered the Indian Ocean tsunami, the deadliest in recorded history. Waves up to 30 metres high inundated entire cities and towns.

More than 227,000 people died throughout the region, primarily in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. All these countries had low tsunami preparedness. At the time, there were no tsunami warning systems in the Indian Ocean.

The even stronger 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan killed just under 20,000 people. It was a terrible toll, but far fewer than the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Evacuations took place and many people got to higher ground or into a high building.

In 2018, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake hit central Sulawesi in Indonesia, triggering tsunami waves up to 7 metres high. Citizen disbelief and a lack of clear communication meant many people did not evacuate in time. More than 4,000 people died.

These examples show the importance of warning systems and evacuations. But they also show their limitations. Even with warning systems in place, major loss of life can still ensue due to public scepticism and communication failures.

What should people do?

At their worst, tsunamis can devastate swathes of coastline and kill hundreds of thousands of people. They should not be underestimated.

If authorities issue an evacuation order, it is absolutely worth following. It’s far better to evacuate early and find a safe space in an orderly way, than to leave it too late and try to escape a city or town amid traffic jams, flooded roads and and widespread disruption.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Tsunami warnings are triggering mass evacuations across the Pacific – even though the waves look small. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/tsunami-warnings-are-triggering-mass-evacuations-across-the-pacific-even-though-the-waves-look-small-heres-why-262224

Emil Bove confirmed – his appeals court nomination echoed earlier controversies, but with a key difference

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Paul M. Collins Jr., Professor of Legal Studies and Political Science, UMass Amherst

Emil Bove, Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as a federal appeals judge for the 3rd Circuit, is sworn in during a confirmation hearing in Washington, D.C., on June 25, 2025. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc, via Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s nomination of his former criminal defense attorney, Emil Bove, to be a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit, was mired in controversy.

On June 24, 2025, Erez Reuveni, a former Department of Justice attorney who worked with Bove, released an extensive, 27-page whistleblower report. Reuveni claimed that Bove, as the Trump administration’s acting deputy attorney general, said “that it might become necessary to tell a court ‘fuck you’” and ignore court orders related to the administration’s immigration policies. Bove’s acting role ended on March 6 when he resumed his current position of principal associate deputy attorney general.

When asked about this statement at his June 25 Senate confirmation hearing, Bove said, “I don’t recall.”

And on July 15, 80 former federal and state judges signed a letter opposing Bove’s nomination. The letter argued that “Mr. Bove’s egregious record of mistreating law enforcement officers, abusing power, and disregarding the law itself disqualifies him for this position.”

A day later, more than 900 former Department of Justice attorneys submitted their own letter opposing Bove’s confirmation. The attorneys argued that “Few actions could undermine the rule of law more than a senior executive branch official flouting another branch’s authority. But that is exactly what Mr. Bove allegedly did through his involvement in DOJ’s defiance of court orders.”

On July 17, Democrats walked out of the Senate Judiciary Committee vote, in protest of the refusal by Chairman Chuck Grassley, a Republican from Iowa, to allow further investigation and debate on the nomination. Republicans on the committee then unanimously voted to move the nomination forward for a full Senate vote.

Late in the evening of July 29, and after two more whistleblower complaints about Bove’s conduct had emerged, the U.S. Senate confirmed Bove’s nomination in a 50-49 vote.

As a scholar of the courts, I know that most federal court appointments are not as controversial as Bove’s nomination. But highly contentious nominations do arise from time to time.

Here’s how three controversial nominations turned out – and how Bove’s nomination was different in a crucial way.

A man smiles and looks toward a microphone with people sitting behind him. All of them are dressed formally.
Robert Bork testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee for his confirmation as associate justice of the Supreme Court in September 1987.
Mark Reinstein/Corbis via Getty Images

Robert Bork

Bork is the only federal court nominee whose name became a verb.

“Borking” is “to attack or defeat (a nominee or candidate for public office) unfairly through an organized campaign of harsh public criticism or vilification,” according to Merriam-Webster.

This refers to Republican President Ronald Reagan’s 1987 appointment of Bork to the Supreme Court.

Reagan called Bork “one of the finest judges in America’s history.” Democrats viewed Bork, a federal appeals court judge, as an ideologically extreme conservative, with their opposition based largely on his extensive scholarly work and opinions on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

In opposing the Bork nomination, Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts took the Senate floor and gave a fiery speech: “Robert Bork’s America is a land in which women would be forced into back-alley abortions, blacks would sit at segregated lunch counters, rogue police could break down citizens’ doors in midnight raids, schoolchildren could not be taught about evolution, writers and artists could be censored at the whim of government, and the doors of the federal courts would be shut on the fingers of millions of citizens for whom the judiciary is often the only protector of the individual rights that are the heart of our democracy.”

Ultimately, Bork’s nomination failed by a 58-42 vote in the Senate, with 52 Democrats and six Republicans rejecting the nomination.

Ronnie White

In 1997, Democratic President Bill Clinton nominated White to the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri. White was the first Black judge on the Missouri Supreme Court.

Republican Sen. John Ashcroft, from White’s home state of Missouri, led the fight against the nomination. Ashcroft alleged that White’s confirmation would “push the law in a pro-criminal direction.” Ashcroft based this claim on White’s comparatively liberal record in death penalty cases as a judge on the Missouri Supreme Court.

However, there was limited evidence to support this assertion. This led some to believe that Ashcroft’s attack on the nomination was motivated by stereotypes that African Americans, like White, are soft on crime.

Even Clinton implied that race may be a factor in the attacks on White: “By voting down the first African-American judge to serve on the Missouri Supreme Court, the Republicans have deprived both the judiciary and the people of Missouri of an excellent, fair, and impartial Federal judge.”

White’s nomination was defeated in the Senate by a 54-45 party-line vote. In 2014, White was renominated to the same judgeship by President Barack Obama and confirmed by largely party-line 53-44 vote, garnering the support of a single Republican, Susan Collins of Maine.

A man with brown skin and a black suit places a hand on a leather chair and stands alongside people dressed formally.
Ronnie White, a former justice for the Missouri Supreme Court, testifies during an attorney general confirmation hearing in Washington in January 2001.
Alex Wong/Newsmakers

Miguel Estrada

Republican President George W. Bush nominated Estrada to the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in 2001.

Estrada, who had earned a unanimous “well-qualified” rating from the American Bar Association, faced deep opposition from Senate Democrats, who believed he was a conservative ideologue. They also worried that, if confirmed, he would later be appointed to the Supreme Court.

A dark-haired man in a suit, standing while swearing an oath.
Miguel Estrada, President George Bush’s nominee to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, is sworn in during his hearing before Senate Judiciary on Sept. 26, 2002.
Scott J. Ferrell/Congressional Quarterly/Getty Images

However, unlike Bork – who had an extensive paper trail as an academic and judge – Estrada’s written record was very thin.

Democrats sought to use his confirmation hearing to probe his beliefs. But they didn’t get very far, as Estrada dodged many of the senators’ questions, including ones about Supreme Court cases he disagreed with and judges he admired.

Democrats were particularly troubled by allegations that Estrada, when he was screening candidates for Justice Anthony Kennedy, disqualified applicants for Supreme Court clerkships based on their ideology.

According to one attorney: “Miguel told me his job was to prevent liberal clerks from being hired. He told me he was screening out liberals because a liberal clerk had influenced Justice Kennedy to side with the majority and write a pro-gay-rights decision in a case known as Romer v. Evans, which struck down a Colorado statute that discriminated against gays and lesbians.”

When asked about this at his confirmation hearing, Estrada initially denied it but later backpedaled. Estrada said, “There is a set of circumstances in which I would consider ideology if I think that the person has some extreme view that he would not be willing to set aside in service to Justice Kennedy.”

Unlike the Bork nomination, Democrats didn’t have the numbers to vote Estrada’s nomination down. Instead, they successfully filibustered the nomination, knowing that Republicans couldn’t muster the required 60 votes to end the filibuster. This marked the first time in Senate history that a court of appeals nomination was filibustered. Estrada would never serve as a judge.

Bove stands out

As the examples of Bork, Estrada and White make clear, contentious nominations to the federal courts often involve ideological concerns.

This is also true for Bove, who was opposed in part because of the perception that he is a conservative ideologue.

But the main concerns about Bove were related to a belief that he is a Trump loyalist who shows little respect for the rule of law or the judicial branch.

This makes Bove stand out among contentious federal court nominations.

This story, originally published on July 21, 2025, has been updated to reflect the Senate’s confirmation of Bove.

The Conversation

Paul M. Collins Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Emil Bove confirmed – his appeals court nomination echoed earlier controversies, but with a key difference – https://theconversation.com/emil-bove-confirmed-his-appeals-court-nomination-echoed-earlier-controversies-but-with-a-key-difference-261347

How conspiracy theories about COVID’s origins are hampering our ability to prevent the next pandemic

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Edward C. Holmes, NHMRC Leadership Fellow and Professor of Virology, University of Sydney

peterschreiber.media/Getty Images

In late June, the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO), a group of independent experts convened by the World Health Organization (WHO), published an assessment of the origins of COVID.

The report concluded that although we don’t know conclusively where the virus that caused the pandemic came from:

a zoonotic origin with spillover from animals to humans is currently considered the best supported hypothesis.

SAGO did not find scientific evidence to support “a deliberate manipulation of the virus in a laboratory and subsequent biosafety breach”.

This follows a series of reports and research papers since the early days of the pandemic that have reached similar conclusions: COVID most likely emerged from an infected animal at the Huanan market in Wuhan, and was not the result of a lab leak.

But conspiracy theories about COVID’s origins persist. And this is hampering our ability to prevent the next pandemic.

Attacks on our research

As experts in the emergence of viruses, we published a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Medicine in 2020 on the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID.

Like SAGO, we evaluated several hypotheses for how a novel coronavirus could have emerged in Wuhan in late 2019. We concluded the virus very likely emerged through a natural spillover from animals – a “zoonosis” – caused by the unregulated wildlife trade in China.

Since then, our paper has become a focal point of conspiracy theories and political attacks.

The idea SARS-CoV-2 might have originated in a laboratory is not, in itself, a conspiracy theory. Like many scientists, we considered that possibility seriously. And we still do, although evidence hasn’t emerged to support it.

But the public discourse around the origin of the pandemic has increasingly been shaped by political agendas and conspiratorial narratives. Some of this has targeted our work and vilified experts who have studied this question in a data-driven manner.

A common conspiracy theory claims senior officials pressured us to promote the “preferred” hypothesis of a natural origin, while silencing the possibility of a lab leak. Some conspiracy theories even propose we were rewarded with grant funding in exchange.

These narratives are false. They ignore, dismiss or misrepresent the extensive body of evidence on the origin of the pandemic. Instead, they rely on selective quoting from private discussions and a distorted portrayal of the scientific process and the motivations of scientists.

So what does the evidence tell us?

In the five years since our Nature Medicine paper, a substantial body of new evidence has emerged that has deepened our understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 most likely emerged through a natural spillover.

In early 2020, the case for a zoonotic origin was already compelling. Much-discussed features of the virus are found in related coronaviruses and carry signatures of natural evolution. The genome of SARS-CoV-2 showed no signs of laboratory manipulation.

The multi-billion-dollar wildlife trade and fur farming industry in China regularly moves high-risk animals, frequently infected with viruses, into dense urban centres.

It’s believed that SARS-CoV-1, the virus responsible for the SARS outbreak, emerged this way in 2002 in China’s Guangdong province.

Similarly, detailed analyses of epidemiological data show the earliest known COVID cases clustered around the Huanan live-animal market in Wuhan, in the Hubei province, in December 2019.

Multiple independent data sources, including early hospitalisations, excess pneumonia deaths, antibody studies and infections among health-care workers indicate COVID first spread in the district where the market is located.

In a 2022 study we and other experts showed that environmental samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 clustered in the section of the market where wildlife was sold.

In a 2024 follow-up study we demonstrated those same samples contained genetic material from susceptible animals – including raccoon dogs and civets – on cages, carts, and other surfaces used to hold and transport them.

This doesn’t prove infected animals were the source. But it’s precisely what we would expect if the market was where the virus first spilled over. And it’s contrary to what would be expected from a lab leak.

These and all other independent lines of evidence point to the Huanan market as the early epicentre of the COVID pandemic.




Read more:
The COVID lab leak theory is dead. Here’s how we know the virus came from a Wuhan market


Hindering preparedness for the next pandemic

Speculation and conspiracy theories around the origin of COVID have undermined trust in science. The false balance between lab leak and zoonotic origin theories assigned by some commentators has added fuel to the conspiracy fire.

This anti-science agenda, stemming in part from COVID origin conspiracy theories, is being used to help justify deep cuts to funding for biomedical research, public health and global aid. These areas are essential for pandemic preparedness.

In the United States this has meant major cuts to the US Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health, the closure of the US Agency for International Development, and withdrawal from the WHO.

Undermining trust in science and public health institutions also hinders the development and uptake of life-saving vaccines and other medical interventions. This leaves us more vulnerable to future pandemics.

The amplification of conspiracy theories about the origin of COVID has promoted a dangerously flawed understanding of pandemic risk. The idea that a researcher discovered or engineered a pandemic virus, accidentally infected themselves, and unknowingly sparked a global outbreak (in exactly the type of setting where natural spillovers are known to occur) defies logic. It also detracts from the significant risk posed by the wildlife trade.

In contrast, the evidence-based conclusion that the COVID pandemic most likely began with a virus jumping from animals to humans highlights the very real risk we increasingly face. This is how pandemics start, and it will happen again. But we’re dismantling our ability to stop it or prepare for it.

The Conversation

Edward C Holmes receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia). He has received consultancy fees from Pfizer Australia and Moderna, and has previously held honorary appointments (for which he has received no renumeration and performed no duties) at the China CDC in Beijing and the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center (Fudan University).

Andrew Rambaut receives funding from The Wellcome Trust and the Gates Foundation.

Kristian G. Andersen receives funding from the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Gates Foundation. He is on the Scientific Advisory Board of Invivyd, Inc. and has consulted on topics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious diseases.

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the author in their personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect the views, positions, or policies of Scripps Research, its leadership, faculty, staff, or its scientific collaborators or affiliates. Scripps Research does not endorse or take responsibility for any statements made in this piece.

Robert Garry has received funding from the National Institutes of Health, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the Wellcome Trust Foundation, Gilead Sciences, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme. He is a co-founder of Zalgen Labs, a biotechnology company developing countermeasures for emerging viruses.

ref. How conspiracy theories about COVID’s origins are hampering our ability to prevent the next pandemic – https://theconversation.com/how-conspiracy-theories-about-covids-origins-are-hampering-our-ability-to-prevent-the-next-pandemic-261475