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November 3, 2025

Bangladesh’s accession to the UN Water Convention has a ripple effect that could cause problems with India

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Pintu Kumar Mahla, Research Associate at the Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona

A boat crosses the Buriganga River in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Oct. 5, 2025. MD Abu Sufian Jewel/NurPhoto via Getty Images

When Bangladesh became the first country in South Asia to join the U.N.’s Water Convention earlier this year, it was presented as a win-win.

Signing up to the Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes would help Bangladesh safeguard and manage waterways that represent a “lifeline to peace and prosperity,” according to the United Nations. At the same time, it was hoped that the South Asian nation’s addition might encourage better cross-border cooperation in a region where shared rivers are often fought over.

As a scholar who works on issues of water security and grew up in South Asia, I understand the drivers behind Bangladesh’s decision to join the convention – recent hydro-political events have raised water security risks for the country of around 174 million.

But contrary to the intention of the convention, I believe Bangladesh joining could actually heighten tensions in South Asia, especially with India.

The need for water security

Bangladesh’s hydro challenges are multifaceted. Half of Bangladeshis live in areas that suffer severe drought. Around 60% of the population is vulnerable to high flood risks. And on average, floods inundate 20% to 25% of the country’s land each year. Moreover, more than 65 million residents still lack access to safe and properly managed sanitation facilities. These overlapping vulnerabilities show why water governance is such a key issue for security, diplomacy and development.

Additionally, the country’s rising population along with the effects of climate change add to this domestic water stress. At least 81 of the 1,415 rivers that flow through Bangladesh have either perished or are on the brink of extinction, according to a recent report.

At the same time, Bangladesh relies almost exclusively on rivers that cross borders. With India and China, it shares one of the world’s most complicated transboundary water systems: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin.

Joining the UN Water Convention

A number of recent developments underscore the reasons Bangladesh sought greater legal and international protection.

In July 2025, China announced what is expected to be the world’s largest hydropower dam, the Motuo Hydropower Station in the Tibet Autonomous Region in southwestern China.

China starts construction on world’s biggest hydropower project in Tibet • FRANCE 24 English.

The Chinese government is promoting the dam as a clean energy project that will help the area’s economy grow, even though it will cost 1.2 trillion yuan (about US$167 billion) to build.

But countries close by are worried about how the dam will affect the region’s environment and politics.

Both Bangladesh and India have complained that the project could make the region less stable. The Yarlung Tsangpo River on which the dam is built runs into India’s Arunachal Pradesh state, which has long been a flashpoint in China-India relations. China claims the region as its own and calls it Zangnan.

Because of where it is situated, the dam could allow China to control or limit the flow of water into India. Similarly, Bangladesh, a downstream country, is concerned that Chinese upstream intervention could hurt its agriculture and make it harder to get water.

Already, the government of Bangladesh has limited control over the country’s water supply because only about 7% of the watershed area of the Brahmaputra, Meghna and Ganges – the three main rivers that flow into the country – are within Bangladesh. Moreover, the amount of water that ultimately reaches Bangladesh is significantly reduced because dam activities by China and India have limited the flow.

Climate change has made the situation worse by changing the way water flows across the Himalayas and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. For instance, the Bangladesh delta, one of the most fertile and densely populated areas in the world, is already experiencing problems, including salinity intrusion, rising sea levels and the loss of arable land.

In 2019, the Bangladesh High Court ruled that the country’s rivers had the same status as a “legal person” in a bid to award them further protection. This was then followed by a decision by Bangladesh to join the U.N. Water Convention.

Created in 1996, the convention seeks to promote cooperation and sustainable management of shared water resources. At first, it was intended only for European and Central Asian countries. But in 2016, it became available to all U.N. member countries.

Bangladesh had initially delayed signing due to a mix of diplomatic, regional and institutional reasons and out of a concern over how it would affect relations with its powerful neighbor, India.

Implications for India

India has traditionally preferred bilateral agreements to resolve cross-border water issues, such as the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan and the 1996 Ganges water-sharing treaty with Bangladesh.

However, India’s bilateral strategy is fraying. The Indus Waters Treaty has been temporarily suspended following fighting between Pakistan and India.

Similarly, New Delhi’s water cooperation with Bangladesh is being tested. The sharing of water from the Teesta, a major tributary of the Brahmaputra, has long been a source of conflict between the two countries, with Bangladesh pushing for what it sees as a fairer distribution.

Bangladesh has also opposed Indian dams, such as the Tipaimukh on the Barak, over concerns about how they will affect the environment and people’s lives. For similar reasons, Bangladesh has objected to India’s plans to connect 30 rivers as part of a massive irrigation project.

The ripple effect

While India’s government has issued no official comment on Bangladesh’s joining the U.N. Water Convention, there are fears in New Delhi that it could undermine India’s negotiating power in future water disputes and when the Ganges River Treaty is due for renewal in 2026.

The original 1996 agreement sets out that India and Bangladesh would each get a guaranteed share of 35,000 cubic feet per second of water. The concern in New Delhi is that Bangladesh may ask for more water than originally specified and that being part of the U.N. Water Convention gives the Bangladesh government a more powerful negotiation platform. As such, Bangladesh’s proposition in September 2025 to create a new institutional framework to manage water-sharing agreements with India for 14 transboundary rivers was viewed with suspicion in India.

A man stands in a street flooded with water. — Incessant rainfall submerges the streets of Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Oct. 1, 2025.
Maruf Rahman/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Renewing the Ganges River Treaty with a framework that gives Bangladesh more water may put more stress on eastern India, an area already experiencing water scarcity, and test India’s water storage capacity, especially during dry seasons.

Shifting political currents

A further concern for India is that Bangladesh signing onto the U.N. Waters Treaty may set a precedent for other countries in the region, such as Nepal and Bhutan.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh has mulled the idea of forming a trilateral hydro-cooperation with China and Pakistan – two of India’s biggest rivals. A day before signing the U.N. convention, Bangladesh joined China and Pakistan in announcing a ‘trilateral cooperation’ on the economy, climate and social development.

For Bangladesh, the potential catastrophe of not tackling cascading environmental challenges justifies the risk of alienating its far more powerful neighbor. But where does this leave India? Ultimately, New Delhi must make a strategic choice: Either stick with bilateralism or adopt new multilateral norms to safeguard its water security and regional power.

Pintu Kumar Mahla is affiliated with the Water Resources Research Center, the University of Arizona.

He is also a member of the International Association of Water Law (AIDA).

Pintu Kumar Mahla has not received funding related to this article. The perspectives presented in this article reflect the personal positions of the author alone.

– ref. Bangladesh’s accession to the UN Water Convention has a ripple effect that could cause problems with India – https://theconversation.com/bangladeshs-accession-to-the-un-water-convention-has-a-ripple-effect-that-could-cause-problems-with-india-264969

November 3, 2025

African countries need strong development banks: how they can push back against narrative to weaken them

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Misheck Mutize, Post Doctoral Researcher, Graduate School of Business (GSB), University of Cape Town

A quiet but consequential contest is playing out in the global financial architecture. One that could determine Africa’s ability to finance its own development.

In recent months, powerful voices from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Paris Club and US investment bank JP Morgan have questioned the preferred creditor status of African multilateral development finance institutions. These institutions include the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the Trade and Development Bank (TDB).

Preferred creditor status is a long-standing practice in global finance. It gives multilateral development finance institutions priority in being repaid when a country faces financial distress. The idea is simple. These institutions lend to promote development. During crises, they step in with counter cyclical lending – increasing support when commercial creditors pull out.

This reliability depends on their strong credit ratings, which in turn rest on the assurance that they will be repaid even when others are not. That assurance is what the preferred creditor status guarantees. The World Bank, IMF and regional development banks in Asia and Latin America all enjoy this protection as a matter of practice. Borrowers respect it because breaching it would threaten their access to future concessional lending – loans offered on much lower interest rates and other terms.

The voices against African multilateral finance institutions argue that they are too small to deserve preferred creditor status. Or that, unlike the World Bank and IMF, they do not lend at concessional rates. JP Morgan has even warned that Africa’s development banks might lose their status altogether.

The debate about the preferred creditor status of Africa’s multilateral development finance institutions may sound technical. It is not. If left unchallenged, this narrative could justify the continued high interest rates Africa faces on international markets.

Drawing on decades of researching Africa’s capital markets and the institutions that govern them, I recommend that African governments must reaffirm and defend the preferred creditor status of multilateral development banks. African multilateral development banks must also act collectively to defend their credibility. And the African Union must embed the preferred creditor status of the continent’s development banks in its financial sovereignty agenda.

Unwritten privilege vs law

For the IMF, World Bank and Paris Club, the preferred creditor status is an unwritten privilege. For African multilateral development banks, it is law.

The founding treaties of Afreximbank, the African Development Bank and TDB explicitly enshrine this status. These treaties are registered under Article 102 of the UN Charter, making them binding under international law. African member states have also ratified them into law, domestically.

This makes the status of African multilateral development banks more legally secure than that of Bretton Woods institutions. Yet it is the African banks whose status is now described as “uncertain” or “controversial”.

African governments must correct this perception. The African Union and its members have already endorsed this principle, but stronger, coordinated public statements are needed, especially from finance ministers and central banks. The aim will be to reassure investors that these protections are real, enforceable and backed by political will.

Collective action

Institutions such as Afreximbank, the AfDB, TDB, Shelter Afriqué Development Bank and the Africa Finance Corporation have grown rapidly. Together, they hold more than US$640 billion in assets, expanding by about 15% a year. They have mobilised billions from global capital markets and stepped up lending when global finance withdrew. They have diversified into the panda bonds in China, proving their resilience and capacity to tap into nontraditional capital markets.

Their success, however, has attracted resistance. International creditors and rating agencies have started questioning their preferred creditor status, describing it as “weak” or “shaky”. This has real consequences. It weakens investor confidence. Investors demand higher returns, raising the cost of borrowing for the banks and, by extension, for African countries, based on a risk factor that does not exist.

To counter this, African multilateral development banks must coordinate their responses. The newly formed Association of African Multilateral Financial Institutions is a promising platform. It should be more active and become the unified voice defending the preferred creditor status. It should be used to issue joint legal opinions, engage directly with credit rating agencies and Paris Club members, and run global investor education campaigns that clarify the legal standing and strong performance of African multilateral development banks. The continent’s development banks must speak with one voice. Silence allows others to define their credibility.

Continent’s financial sovereignty

Protecting preferred creditor status is about more than technical finance. It is about sovereignty. Africa is building its own financial ecosystem through the African Credit Rating Agency. The other financial institutions in the ecosystem – which aren’t yet operational – are the African Central Bank, African Investment Bank and African Monetary Fund. Their purpose will be to reduce dependence on external actors and keep Africa’s development agenda in African hands.

A battle of perception

Global finance runs on perception which is shaped by narratives. Those who control the narratives control the cost of money. If the preferred creditor status of African multilateral development banks continues to be misrepresented, Africa’s access to affordable finance will remain hostage to external opinion rather than legal reality.

It will also weaken African development banks just as they are becoming more effective. Their ability to borrow cheaply and on favourable terms depends on their credit ratings, which rest on the assumption that they will be repaid first in case of distress. If that assumption is shaken, borrowing costs will rise.

By reaffirming the legal basis of the preferred creditor status of African multilateral development banks, coordinating their response and embedding this status in the AU’s financial sovereignty framework, African governments and multilateral development lenders can protect one of the most important tools for affordable development finance.

This is not just about defending institutions, it’s about defending Africa’s right to finance its own future on fair terms.

Misheck Mutize is affiliated with the African Union – African Peer Review Mechanism as a Lead Expert on credit ratings

– ref. African countries need strong development banks: how they can push back against narrative to weaken them – https://theconversation.com/african-countries-need-strong-development-banks-how-they-can-push-back-against-narrative-to-weaken-them-267989

November 3, 2025

Mark Carney’s apology to Donald Trump: Far from ‘elbows up,’ it seems Canada has no elbows at all

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stewart Prest, Lecturer, Political Science, University of British Columbia

Canadians have learned in recent days that Prime Minister Mark Carney did indeed apologize for an Ontario advertisement that used Ronald Reagan’s own words to correctly portray the late United States president’s views on the importance of free trade.

The subtext to such an apology is clear: “Sorry Ontario accurately described Ronald Reagan’s stand on free trade, Mr. President. We understand those words hurt your feelings and challenged your version of the truth, which of course is unacceptable. We promise we won’t let the facts get in the way of our relationship again.”

Last spring’s election was all about building insulation to Trump, using phrases like “Elbows up” and “Canada Strong.” But the attitude of both the federal government and the Official Opposition, then and now, has often been conciliatory to the point of obsequiousness.

Far from elbows up, Canada too often seems to have no elbows at all.

Implications of the apology

Carney apologized for something he didn’t do — and something that was completely defensible, at least in a normal period of Canada-U.S. relations.

Critics of Ontario Premier Doug Ford and defenders of Carney — often the same people — will say the ad should not have happened in the first place.

They would point out, not incorrectly, that though the ad accurately recounted Reagan’s words, those words aren’t relevant to Republican views anymore and that the ad unnecessarily poked the bear. This may be true, but it doesn’t justify the apology.

In normal times, there would be nothing wrong with the ad airing in the U.S. Traditionally, Americans have valued and encouraged free speech and reasoned argument, and respected the views of allies and partners. Canadian governments, accordingly, may resort to public advocacy south of the border to get the attention of decision-makers in the complex U.S. policymaking apparatus.

When institutions are working as they should in the U.S., power is disaggregated between federal and state levels and between executive and legislative branches, making advocacy a complex, multifaceted affair.

But we are not in that world anymore. The U.S. must be handled as a regime, not a democracy. As The New York Times editorial board accurately described things recently, democracy in the U.S. is under sustained threat due to the actions of Trump and his supporters. There are still democratic elements within the country, but the U.S. no longer responds to normal diplomacy.

The ad was therefore an unnecessary risk. The apology, however, was an unnecessary own-goal. An apology is due when someone has done something wrong, but that is not the case here. The ad might have been ill-advised, but it was not wrong.

Dealing with a bully

When dealing with a bully, don’t say or do anything you’re not willing to stand beside, even if it provokes a presidential fit of pique. Every climb-down is a defeat and an admission of weakness. Better to say nothing than to say something you have to take back. And if offence is taken, an apology will only make things worse in the long run.

It has been obvious for a long time that the only thing Trump respects is power, and the only thing he may be persuaded by is a transactional, personal payoff. While an apology might seem to provide a personal payoff him, what it really does is communicate a lack of power. That in turn invites further demands.

Bullies don’t stop bullying when you make it clear you’ll do what they ask. They stop when it’s clear that you won’t. As long as outrage is rewarded, Canada can expect more of the same.

The truth doesn’t matter

What’s more, Carney’s apology makes clear that truth won’t be an obstacle to Canadian compliance, not unlike when the country took the imagined fentanyl border crisis seriously. In both cases, Canada’s response communicated that its actions will be tailored to suit Trump’s version of reality, not facts on the ground.

Such deference is not only a betrayal of Canadian dignity, sovereignty and interests, it’s also not going to work. There is now ample evidence backing this up.

Retract the ads, and the tariffs go up anyway. Apologize, and the tariffs stay in place. Spend billions on cross-border security, including fentanyl interdiction, and the tariffs remain. Spend additional billions on defence spending, and the tariffs stay put. Fly to Mar-a-Lago as a supplicant and get a series of 51st state taunts for your pains.

Would-be autocrats thrive on the subjugation of facts to their will. Canada simply can’t afford to keep giving in to Trumpian demands or to allow the truth to be whatever the American administration says it is.

Public diplomacy in the Trump era

Canada’s best option, instead, is to stay consistent with a single message: it stands ready to be a partner. The two countries have always benefited from working together, and can again do so. Canada is not out to antagonize, but neither should it apologize for simply speaking the truth.

Going forward, it’s clear that Canada’s premiers must work more closely with the federal government on a single forceful message, not freelance in whatever direction suits their particular political interests at the moment. Canada needs one foreign policy, not 14. Multiple messages simply create opportunities to divide and conquer.

Similarly, Canada must deepen links with other allies and partners around the world as quickly as possible. Bullies pick on the weak and the isolated. Canada can’t afford to be either.

Above all, when the U.S. takes offence, or gives it, the country must politely but firmly stand its ground. Canada cannot allow the freedom to speak the truth or stand up for itself to become the latest casualties in Trump’s trade war against all.

Stewart Prest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Mark Carney’s apology to Donald Trump: Far from ‘elbows up,’ it seems Canada has no elbows at all – https://theconversation.com/mark-carneys-apology-to-donald-trump-far-from-elbows-up-it-seems-canada-has-no-elbows-at-all-268856

November 3, 2025

Can a pro-federation win in Northern Cyprus revive the island’s stalled reunification?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Spyros A. Sofos, Assistant Professor in Global Humanities, Simon Fraser University

In the recent Northern Cyprus presidential election, an overwhelming majority of the Turkish Cypriot electorate rejected incumbent Ersin Tatar, backed by the Turkish government, and his hard-line two-state rhetoric.

Opposition leader Tufan Erhürman’s landslide victory has revived hopes for a settlement on the divided island.

Cyprus is an independent country and a member of both the United Nations and the European Union. But it’s divided, with the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the south and a self-declared state in the north, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey.

A two-state solution calls for the island to remain divided between Greek Cypriots in the south and Turkish Cypriots in the north instead of reunifying.

This division was the result of Turkey’s 1974 invasion of Cyprus that followed a coup orchestrated by the Greek junta aimed at uniting the island with Greece. Turkey intervened, ostensibly to protect the Turkish Cypriot minority.

Decisive mandate

For the first time, a national leader openly embracing the UN’s model of a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation has secured a decisive mandate — almost 63 per cent of the vote in the first round of the election and majority support in every electoral district.

Erhürman represents the social-democratic and pro-unification tradition of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP). His platform focuses on rebuilding co-operation between the north and south and re-engaging the EU in a peace process to create a shared federation with a rotating presidency and equal political rights. It builds on decades of UN reunification efforts.

I have previously argued that Cypriot hopes for unification were on life support, but not doomed. That assessment still holds today now that there’s the first real chance in years to restart a meaningful process of reconciliation. The question is whether the Republic of Cyprus is willing to seize this opportunity or retreat once again into comfortable inaction.

This will determine whether Cyprus finally begins to heal the divisions that have endured since the Turkish invasion.

Why this moment matters

Despite his carefully crafted campaign messages, Erhürman’s victory is a direct challenge to Turkey’s hold on North Cyprus — in particular its growing political, military and economic control.

It also comes as Devlet Bahçeli, leader of Turkey’s ultra-nationalist MHP and coalition partner to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, called for Northern Cyprus to be absorbed by Turkey within days of the vote.

The outburst revealed anxiety in Turkey: a pro-federation leadership in Lefkoşa — the Turkish Cypriot part of the city of Nicosia — could loosen the grip Turkey built through subsidies, security dependency and crony networks.

Yet the far greater uncertainty lies in the south.

The south’s long drift since 2004

In the referendum on the UN-brokered Annan Plan that would have allowed a united Cyprus to enter the European Union in 2004, 65 per cent of Turkish Cypriots voted in favour of reunification, while three-quarters of Greek Cypriots rejected it.

The Republic of Cyprus joined the EU a week later while the acquis communautaire — the full body of European Union rules and obligations — was suspended in the north.

The failure of the plan deflated Turkish Cypriots’ EU aspirations and ushered in an era of isolation during which the south’s political class no longer felt compelled to compromise.

In the two decades since, successive governments in Nicosia in the south have proclaimed support for a federal solution but acted as stewards of an ethno-national enclave with elites profiting from state-granted privileges, real-estate speculation and now-discredited “golden passport” schemes.

The oligarchic patronage that flourished under that system rewarded partition rather than reconciliation. Opportunities to move the process forward — most notably, talks in 2017 — were squandered.

For many in the south, the “Cyprus problem” is primarily a question of occupation; for many in the north, it’s about political equality and security.

A map with division lines of the island of Cyprus. — A map of divided Cyprus.
(Spyros A. Sofos, 2025), CC BY-NC

The real test: Political will

For reunification talks to restart, the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus must do more than verbally welcome the election outcome. It must take positive action.

That means endorsing UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s proposal to resume negotiations “within the agreed UN framework” and engaging swiftly with measures like electricity interconnection, joint search-and-rescue co-ordination and cultural-heritage restoration.

These types initiatives — part of a power-sharing model in which divided communities share government through guaranteed representation, mutual vetoes and a degree of autonomy — are already working across the Cyprus buffer zone. That’s where the two communities have been co-operating on issues like the recovery and identification of victims of the 1974 war, basic infrastructure projects and the opening of crossing points at what used to be an impenetrable border.

But the Greek Cypriot leadership faces domestic constraints: a parliament where nearly half the parties oppose federation outright and voters have been conditioned to equate compromise with betrayal. Change will require moral and political courage — something no Cypriot president since Tassos Papadopoulos’s rejection of the Annan Plan has demonstrated.

Global significance

Cyprus represents far more than a local dispute. The island lies at the crossroads of eastern Mediterranean energy routes and has played a role in the tensions in NATO’s southern flank and the fraught relationship between the EU and Turkey.

Erol Kaymak, a Turkish Cypriot international relations expert, has argued that a revived peace process would open the door to co-operation on offshore energy and maritime boundaries, issues that increasingly affect regional stability.

He also points out that continued partition entrenches Turkey’s military presence and sustains a grey-zone economy vulnerable to corruption and organized crime.

For the international community, Cyprus offers lessons in peacebuilding: can outside entities promote post-conflict power-sharing and justice when one side depends more on the other? The Canadian UNFICYP — the UN peacekeeping force in Cyprus — has experience in facilitating precisely such co-operation.

Last opportunity?

Erhürman’s election is a remarkable assertion of autonomy by Turkish Cypriot voters who have endured decades of isolation from the international community.

But unless the Greek Cypriot political officials respond with a genuine initiative for talks, the window could close quickly. Erdoğan’s government is already signalling it will not tolerate any divergence of Turkish Cypriot policies from Turkey’s.

The election may be the last chance for Cypriots on both sides to build trust-based institutions, eliminate the need for external guarantors and troops and restore the island as a common home for all.

This requires perseverance, creativity and imagination. Officials need to look not just at what’s worked in the Cyprus peace process but also at power-sharing lessons from Northern Ireland and other places where inclusive coalitions helped stabilize divided societies.

It’s essential to strengthen co-operation and foster closer ties that can gradually erode mutual distance and suspicion. These efforts could make any future settlement easier to implement and could lay the groundwork for a more stable and mutually beneficial co-existence.

However Cypriots choose to share their island, this could be their last chance to ensure the many barricades that have divided them for more than 50 years are finally dismantled.

Spyros A. Sofos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Can a pro-federation win in Northern Cyprus revive the island’s stalled reunification? – https://theconversation.com/can-a-pro-federation-win-in-northern-cyprus-revive-the-islands-stalled-reunification-268138

November 3, 2025

Is it healthier to only eat until you’re 80% full? The Japanese philosophy of hara hachi bu

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Aisling Pigott, Lecturer, Dietetics, Cardiff Metropolitan University

The principle of ‘hara hachi bu’ is to stop eating just before you get full. Only_NewPhoto/ Shutterstock

Some of the world’s healthiest and longest-living people follow the practice of “hara hachi bu” — an eating philosophy rooted in moderation. This practice comes from a Japanese Confucian teaching which instructs people to only eat until they’re around 80% full.

More recently, it’s been gaining attention as a strategy for weight loss. But while hara hachi bu might emphasise eating in moderation and stopping before you’re full, it shouldn’t really be as seen as a method of dietary restriction. Rather, it represents a way of eating that can help us learn to have awareness and gratitude while slowing down at mealtimes.

Research on hara hachi bu is limited. Previous studies have evaluated the overall dietary patterns of those living in regions where this eating philosophy is more commonplace, not the “80% rule” in isolation.

However, the available evidence does suggest hara hachi bu can reduce total daily calorie intake. It’s also associated with lower long-term weight gain and lower average body mass index (BMI). The practice also aligns with healthier meal-pattern choices in men, with participants choosing to eat more vegetables at mealtimes and fewer grains when following hara hachi bu.

Hara hachi bu also shares many similar principles with the concepts of mindful eating or intuitive eating. These non-diet, awareness-based approaches encourage a stronger connection with internal hunger and satiety cues. Research shows both approaches can also help reduce emotional eating and enhance overall diet quality.

Hara hachi bu may also have many advantages that go beyond losing weight.

For instance, hara hachi bu’s focus on awareness and eating intuitively may offer a gentle and sustainable way of supporting long-term health changes. Sustainable health changes are far easier to maintain in the long-term. This may improve health and prevent weight regain, which can be a risk for those who lose weight through traditional diet approaches.

The ethos of hara hachi bu also makes perfect sense in the context of modern life and may help us develop a better relationship with the food we eat.

Evidence suggests that around 70% of adults and children use digital devices while eating. This behaviour has been linked to higher calorie intake, lower fruit and vegetable intake and a greater incidence of disordered eating behaviours including restriction, binge eating and overeating.

As a dietitian, I see it all the time. We put food on a pedestal, obsess over it, talk about it, post about it – but so often, we don’t actually enjoy it. We’ve lost that sense of connection and appreciation.

A woman leans back from her plate at the table holding her stomach because she's eaten too much. — Hara hachi bu might help you improve your relationship with eating and your body.
Doucefleur/ Shutterstock

Being more aware of the food we eat and taking time to taste, enjoy and truly experience it as hara hachi bu emphasises, can allow us to reconnect with our bodies, support digestion and make more nourishing food choices.

Trying ‘hara hachi bu’

For those who might want to give “hara hachi bu” or taking a more mindful and intuitive approach to improve their relationship with food, here are a few tips to try:

1. Check in with your body before eating

Ask yourself: Am I truly hungry? And if so, what kind of hunger is it — physical, emotional, or just habitual? If you’re physically hungry, denying yourself may only lead to stronger cravings or overeating later. But if you’re feeling bored, tired, or stressed, take a moment to pause. Giving yourself space to reflect can help prevent food from becoming a default coping mechanism.

2. Eat without distractions

Step away from screens and give your meal your full attention. Screens often serve as a distraction from our fullness cues, which can contribute to overeating.

3. Slow down and savour each bite

Eating should be a sensory and satisfying experience. Slowing down allows us to know when we’re satiated and should stop eating.

4. Aim to feel comfortably full, not stuffed

If we think of being hungry as a one and being so full you need to lie down as a ten, then eating until you’re around “80% full” means you should feel comfortably satisfied rather than stuffed. Eating slowly and being attuned to your body’s signals will help you achieve this.

5. Share meals when you can

Connection and conversation are part of what makes food meaningful. Connection at meal times is uniquely human and a key to longevity.

6. Aim for nourishment

Ensure your meals are rich in vitamins, minerals, fibre and energy.

7. Practice self-compassion

There’s no need to eat “perfectly”. The point of hara hachi bu is about being aware of your body – not about feeling guilty over what you’re eating.

Importantly, hara hachi bu is not meant to be a restrictive eating approach. It promotes moderation and eating in tune with your body – not “eating less”.

When viewed as a means of losing weight, it risks triggering a harmful cycle of restriction, dysregulation and overeating – the very opposite of the balanced, intuitive ethos it’s meant to embody. Focusing solely on eating less also distracts from more important aspects of nutrition – such as dietary quality and eating essential nutrients.

This practice also may not suit everyone. Athletes, children, older adults and those living with illness often have higher or more specific nutritional needs so this eating pattern may not be suitable for these groups.

While often reduced to a simple “80% full” guideline, hara hachi bu reflects a much broader principle of mindful moderation. At its core, it’s about tuning into the body, honouring hunger without overindulgence and appreciating food as fuel — a timeless habit worth adopting.

Aisling Pigott receives funding from Research Capacity Building Collaborative (RCBC) and Health and Care Research Wales. Aisling Pigott is a Non-Executive Director of the British Dietetic Association, the professional body and trade union representing dietitians in the UK.

– ref. Is it healthier to only eat until you’re 80% full? The Japanese philosophy of hara hachi bu – https://theconversation.com/is-it-healthier-to-only-eat-until-youre-80-full-the-japanese-philosophy-of-hara-hachi-bu-268008

November 3, 2025

Why national parks and nature reserves don’t always safeguard ecosystems as expected

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Miguel Lurgi, Associate Professor in Computational Ecology, Swansea University

A peregrine falcon foraging in the forest. Wang LiQiang/Shutterstock

Setting aside land for nature is one of the main global strategies to conserve biodiversity. From national parks to local reserves, these areas are designed to give wildlife the space it needs to thrive. But my latest research with colleagues shows that these protected areas don’t always work in the way we expect.

They can help increase the number of species and provide habitats for large predators. But they don’t necessarily preserve the complex web of interactions that keeps ecosystems functioning. Our study found that the effectiveness of protected areas varies widely across Europe. This has mixed effects on the ecological relationships that sustain life.

Protected areas are central to international conservation policy. In 2022, governments at the UN biodiversity conference (Cop15) agreed to the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The framework aims to protect 30% of the world’s land and sea by 2030. The ambition is to halt biodiversity loss and safeguard the services that healthy ecosystems provide.

But while the number of protected areas continues to grow, there is still debate about how well they work. Most studies measure biodiversity success by counting species or tracking population trends. These are important, but they miss a crucial part of how ecosystems operate: the network of ecological interactions. Interactions between species such as predator-prey relationships connect species together in ecosystems and are crucial for their persistence.

We wanted to find out how effective protected areas are at maintaining these networks. Understanding this is central to ensuring that conservation measures protect not only individual species, but the relationships between them that support ecosystem stability and resilience.

We analysed 376,556 records of bird sightings gathered by citizen scientists from online databases. These records covered 509 bird species distributed across 45 protected networks stretching from the Mediterranean to Scandinavia.

By combining these observations with information on which species eats what, we built food webs, which are diagrams that map predator-prey interactions, for both protected and non-protected environments. We then compared the structure of these food webs to assess how well protection helped maintain their integrity.

We found that protected areas can have positive effects on the structure of food webs, but not always. In general, protected sites supported more bird species, particularly those in the middle of the food chain, and we also found larger predators within those areas. For example, less pristine or smaller habitats may only have a sparrowhawk. Whereas more diverse habitats may have a golden or a Bonelli’s eagle. That’s often a sign of a healthier ecosystem.

But for other important features, such as how many interactions each species has or how long the food chains are, the results were far less consistent. Some protected areas showed positive effects, while others showed neutral or even negative ones.

When protection doesn’t mean balance

This means that what works for conserving species does not necessarily work for conserving the ecological interactions between them. Preserving these relationships is crucial because they underpin ecosystem stability.

If predators decline or disappear altogether, their prey can grow, unchecked. This may disrupt the balance of an entire ecosystem. One striking example comes from the Aleutian Islands off Alaska, where the loss of sea otters led to an explosion in sea urchins and the near collapse of kelp forests.

The same principles apply across terrestrial ecosystems. The loss of pollinators, for instance, can have dramatic consequences for both wild plants and crops, threatening food security as well as biodiversity. These examples show why it’s not enough to conserve species in isolation. The connections between species also need protection.

Our study found that how well a protected area works depends a lot on where it is located and how it is managed. We found that factors such as remoteness, habitat diversity, human pressure and the amount of surrounding agricultural land were all linked to how well food webs were preserved.

A golden eagle flying in Spain. — A golden eagle soars.
David Collado/Shutterstock

Protected areas established under the EU Birds Directive, which specifically focuses on maintaining bird populations and habitats, showed the strongest positive effects. This suggests that having a clear conservation goal and strong management practices makes a real difference.

Protected areas that are more diverse in habitat types also tend to support richer ecological networks. This demonstrates the importance of maintaining habitat integrity. In comparison, areas with a lot of human activity or patchy habitats often find it harder to maintain the balance of species and interactions that make ecosystems thrive.

Rethinking how we measure conservation

Our study highlights the complexity of conservation action. Simply protecting land is not enough. To be truly effective, conservation must consider not only how many species live within an area, but also how those species interact.

These interactions are essentially the ecological glue of the natural world. They are what allow ecosystems to persist and perform vital functions such as pollination, pest control and nutrient cycling. Ignoring them risks overlooking early warning signs of ecosystem collapse.

To secure a sustainable future, conservation policies must go beyond species counts and focus on safeguarding the intricate networks that keep life in balance.

If we focus on how nature functions, not just which species live there, we can make sure protected areas really keep our ecosystems healthy.

Miguel Lurgi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why national parks and nature reserves don’t always safeguard ecosystems as expected – https://theconversation.com/why-national-parks-and-nature-reserves-dont-always-safeguard-ecosystems-as-expected-266623

November 3, 2025

Earthshot prize’s request for a vegan menu for Prince William leaves a bitter taste in the Amazon

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Belinda Zakrzewska, Assistant Professor of Marketing, University of Birmingham

Brazilian chef Saulo Jennings is a champion of Amazonian ingredients including the pirarucu fish. Instagram

Saulo Jennings, an acclaimed Amazonian chef and UN gastronomy tourism ambassador, was reportedly outraged when organisers of Prince William’s Earthshot prize asked him to prepare an entirely vegan menu. For Jennings, being told to exclude pirarucu – the region’s iconic giant freshwater fish – was not merely a matter of preference but a lack of respect for his culinary traditions.

Prince William founded the Earthshot prize to celebrate innovative solutions to the planet’s greatest environmental challenges. This year’s ceremony takes place on November 5 at Rio de Janeiro’s futuristic Museu do Amanhã (Museum of Tomorrow), marking the first time the Earthshot’s award ceremony will be held in Latin America. It will serve as the opening act for Cop30, which begins on November 10 in Belém, in the heart of the Amazon, emphasising the region’s central place in climate discussions.

Jennings had agreed to create a selection of canapes for the awards ceremony, which was when the misunderstanding arose. He designed a menu with a vegan option but was then told the whole selection must be vegan, meaning he couldn’t include any dishes featuring pirarucu. “It was like asking Iron Maiden to play jazz,” he told the New York Times. “It was a lack of respect for local cuisine, for our culinary tradition.”

At the museum’s urging, Jennings agreed to design an Amazonian-inspired vegan menu using native ingredients. But by then the deal had collapsed and another team was selected to feed the awards ceremony.

Instead, Jennings has been commissioned to cook for the Norwegian and Chinese delegations at Cop30, and will also oversee the food for the Cop banquet, prepared for the heads of state attending the conference. For these occasions, he will be able to highlight the Amazon’s diverse flavours and, he has respectfully assured, will be serving pirarucu.

By insisting on a vegan menu, the Earthshot prize effectively equated veganism with sustainability. But while the two concepts can overlap, they are not the same. Some vegan foods, such as avocados, have large carbon footprints.

This is just one example of how well-intentioned western environmental initiatives can unintentionally clash with the values and food practices of the communities they aim to celebrate.

Impositions on sustainable food practices

Western impositions on Indigenous food cultures stretch back to colonial times. Early European settlers viewed their own staple crops, such as wheat and barley, as symbols of civilisation. On the other hand, they often dismissed Indigenous foods like Andean grains such as quinoa and amaranth as “primitive”.

This legacy still shapes food hierarchies today. In Peru, for example, communities in the Andes are swapping traditional potatoes for pasta and rice.

Nowadays, consumers – both in Brazil and globally – play a role in reinforcing western ideas through their purchasing choices and perceptions of “authentic”, “exotic” or “healthy” foods that shape the exchange of foods across different countries and market segments, while distorting local economies and traditions.

In Belém, açaí berries are a staple of local culinary custom, traditionally consumed by residents with manioc flour and fish. But in other Brazilian regions – and increasingly internationally – they have become known as a trendy powdered or frozen “superfood”, or are blended into açaí bowls.

In postcolonial nations, local elites – typically composed of non-Indigenous people who have historically aligned themselves with western tastes and values – can sometimes both reinforce and challenge these inequalities

In Brazil’s culinary scene, elite chefs have taken the lead in defining a new national haute cuisine that elevates Amazonian ingredients through fine-dining techniques. For example, renowned Brazilian chef Alex Atala elevates pirarucu by reinterpreting the fish using innovative techniques and presentations at his Sao Paulo restaurant, D.O.M.

However, this can detach ingredients from their original uses and create pressures on producers to deliver more, which could lead to unsustainable practices. Therefore, Atala is also committed to advancing sustainability, research and cultural preservation through Instituto Ata, which aims to showcase the diversity both of Brazil’s culture and its environment.

For Indigenous chef Tainá Marajoara, there’s a risk that elite Brazilian culture is borrowing heavily from Indigenous traditions – and using Amazonian ingredients without properly acknowledging the debt this modern food owes to the cultures from which it has been appropriated.

Marajoara – like Jennings, a UN ambassador for gastronomy – has sharply criticised what she perceives as the dominant mindset among Brazilian chefs. She told food magazine Saveur that some elite chefs believe “the food of dark-skinned people needs to be updated, as though we don’t have a wisdom and aesthetic of our own”.

Decolonising western ideas about sustainability

Many Indigenous communities adopt a “kincentric” view of the natural world, meaning they see humans, plants and animals as interconnected members of a shared ecological family, rather than separate entities.

According to Jennings, sustainability means living in harmony with nature’s rhythms – not imposing uniform dietary rules. As he told the New York Times: “We eat whatever the forests give us, whatever the rivers give us. Some days we eat fish; other days we eat nuts and açaí. This is also sustainable.”

True sustainability requires cultural and ecological respect. At Cop30, Jennings and Marajoara will design menus grounded in their cultures’ deep relationships with the natural world. Their aim is to show that sustainability should be a lived practice, not just politicians’ rhetoric.

Hopefully, their participation will reinforce the important message that meaningful climate solutions depend on Indigenous leadership and knowledge.

Bridging the gap between western assumptions and local ecological realities remains urgent. Marajoara warns: “As long as ancestral lands are violated and violence spreads across forests, rivers and fields, our people and our culture are being killed.”

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Earthshot prize’s request for a vegan menu for Prince William leaves a bitter taste in the Amazon – https://theconversation.com/earthshot-prizes-request-for-a-vegan-menu-for-prince-william-leaves-a-bitter-taste-in-the-amazon-268597

November 3, 2025

Why some humans grow horns

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Baumgardt, Senior Lecturer, School of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Bristol

A cutaneous horn is a cone-shaped growth on the skin formed from compacted, dead keratin. Jojo via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Equids, members of the horse family including horses, donkeys and zebras, share curious features called chestnuts. Found on every horse, they appear as toughened growths on their limbs, and can be clipped back if they grow too large. Anyone following the charming and rugged farrier Sam Wolfenden on TikTok will have seen his expert chestnut clipping.

Chestnuts are fascinating little entities – remnants of toe pads that were present in the prehistoric relatives of both domestic and wild horses. They’re also unique to each animal; you can think of them as an individual fingerprint.

Chestnuts are made of keratin, the same material found in the outer layer of skin. It’s protective, waterproof and durable, giving resilience and strength. It’s also found in hair and nails, which allow for important functions like trapping heat and providing sensory information to the brain.

Samuel Wolfenden is a farrier who often shares social media posts of chestnut removals.

The hooves and horns of animals are no different. Keratin-based and developed from the skin, they are designed for functions such as protection or even as weapons in battle.

Keratin therefore plays an important role across both human and animal species. And since we’re all built from similar biological materials, it may not surprise you that humans can develop horns too – though not quite like a horse or goat.

Human horns

Cutaneous horns, or cornu cutaneum, are compacted keratin masses that grow outward from a person’s skin. Their typically curved shape and hardened texture make them look like the horns of a goat, sheep or cow.

They can vary in colour from yellow to brown to grey. Their relative shade depends on the amount of pigment and dead cells trapped within the keratin as it builds up.

Cutaneous horns develop from skin lesions of various kinds, and many are harmless. Several common benign lesions such as seborrhoeic keratoses – warty swellings extremely common in older people – can develop into these “horns”. So can other warts, including those caused by the human papilloma virus (HPV), a group of viruses that infect the skin and mucous membranes and can lead to either warts or, in rarer cases, cancer.

Around 16-20% of cutaneous horns are malignant, developing from skin cancers such as squamous cell carcinoma. This form of cancer starts in the outer layer of the skin and can invade deeper tissues if left untreated.

Others arise from premalignant conditions: skin changes that have not yet become cancerous but have the potential to do so. A prime example is an actinic (or solar) keratosis, which can later develop into squamous cell cancer, sometimes forming a horn but often not.

In these cases, the cells within the lesion become denatured, losing their normal structure and function. This uncontrolled growth can lead to excessive keratin production, occasionally resulting in the formation of a horn.

People who develop cutaneous horns, whether benign, premalignant or cancerous, tend to share some similar risk factors. These horns are far more common in older adults and in those with fair skin, and they often appear on sun-exposed areas such as the head or face, suggesting that ultraviolet (UV) light plays a major role.

Sun damage is a key cause of all skin cancers including melanoma, the most dangerous form. Unlike squamous cell cancer, melanoma originates in pigment-producing cells and spreads more aggressively through the body if not caught early.

Grow to astonishing sizes

Some cutaneous horns appear in stranger places, including the chest and even the genitals. And because they can sometimes be linked to cancer, anyone who notices one should see a doctor.

Their appearance can be distressing, especially when they form on visible areas like the face, and they may also cause discomfort or irritation. Treatment usually involves surgical removal of the horn and a small amount of surrounding skin, a procedure known as excision.

Some cutaneous horns can grow to astonishing sizes. In 2024, an elderly woman in China made headlines because of a large cutaneous horn that grew from her forehead, reaching ten centimetres over seven years.

Others have earned nicknames like “unicorn horns” when they sprout from the centre of a person’s forehead. Alternatively, a patient in India was reported to have a “devil’s horn” growing from the top of his head.

However, the record for the biggest cutaneous horn probably belongs to Madame Dimanche, also known as Widow Sunday, in the early 19th century. This French woman’s horn stretched nearly 25cm, hanging past her chin before it was removed. A wax cast of both her face and the horn are now displayed among other anatomical curiosities in the Mütter Museum in Philadelphia.

If you ever notice a hard, growing bump that looks even faintly horn-like, don’t wait. Get it checked by your GP in order to guide the most appropriate treatment.

And to Sam Wolfenden, with his deeply satisfying hoof-trimming videos, keep on clipping, mate.

Dan Baumgardt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why some humans grow horns – https://theconversation.com/why-some-humans-grow-horns-268370

November 3, 2025

The Samurai Detectives by Shōtarō Ikenami: a tale of honour, desire and mystery in Edo Japan

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hui-Ying Kerr, Senior Lecturer in Fashion Communication and Promotion, Nottingham Trent University

An upright young samurai, a cross-dressing sword-wielding maiden, a retired warrior, honour killings, killings not-so-honourable, and lovers of all kinds. Welcome to The Samurai Detectives, the first part of a series of popular historical mystery novels by Shōtarō Ikenami (1923-1990).

Originally written as a serialisation in the monthly magazine Shōsetsu Shinchō between 1972 and 1989, the series was published as 16 complete novels under the title, Kenkyaku Shōbai (Swordsman’s Business). Regarded as one of Ikenami’s three signature works, The Samurai Detectives is the first English translation of his writing.

The book opens with Daijiro, a poor but principled young samurai. As he practices his craft alone in an empty field under the open sky, he is offered a huge sum of gold – but at the cost of his honour. Herein lies the crux of the book, where principle and commitment to the warrior code juts up against the temptations and practicalities of living in Edo-era Japan.

Also known as the Tokugawa period (1603-1868), the country was under the rule of the feudal Tokugawa shogunate. This was a time of peace and flourishing of the Japanese economy and arts, following two centuries of civil war.

Ikenami’s book was published at an apt time. Just as it muses on what to do with the leftover samurai and their skills in an era of peace, so 1970s Japan, following the upheavals of wartime defeat, 1950s post-war and 1960s civil unrest, was grappling with what to do with their post-nationalist militarised society and legions of men.

The answer? To plug it all into their economy. This created what would become the new symbol of Japanese hegemonic masculinity, the corporate worker as “Japanese salaryman”, or “corporate samurai”.

At first, it’s easy to assume that the handsome, upright, young Daijiro is the book’s hero, but as the story unfolds it becomes clear that this is a classic case of misdirection. Instead, other more complex characters come to the fore – in particular, Daijiro’s more pragmatic father. The poetics of the still landscape give way to the dynamism of a bustling Edo metropolis (the city that became Tokyo) and robustness of dramatic – and at times graphically violent – action.

Filled with distinctive characters, shady dealings, women of moral ambiguity, heroes and villains alike, this really is samurai detective fiction. Building on the introduction of detective fiction to Japanese literary fiction in the 20th century, The Samurai Detectives falls between the historical detective and social mystery subgenre.

Throughout the book, Ikenami offers extensive histories of places, characters and their allegiances, emphasising the importance of understanding the interconnected relationships and motivations behind their actions. From explaining the wider politics of the feudal families to the personal histories of the characters, the book takes the reader through the history and social geography of Edo Japan. It draws readers into the complex world of the samurai and their code, bushido.

Yet rather than a simplistic, romantic portrayal of samurai, the stories are underpinned by the tension between the wider samurai code and the characters’ personal struggles. They wrestle with how to align their own desires with their responsibilities and loyalties. This follows the Japanese concept of honne-tatemae, or the tension between private feelings and public behaviours.

Japanese man sat in a room working — Shōtarō Ikenami in 1961.
Wiki Commons

From a high-ranking daughter’s desire to become a warrior, despite the expectations placed on her as a woman in Japanese society, to male samurai pursuing secret relationships with male lovers or adorning themselves with feminine make-up, the book is full of contradictions. It explores the tensions between personal desires and social norms.

Complicating this is the underlying sense of changing times. The warriors must renegotiate their place while the world moves into the complexities of peacetime.

This tension comes to a head in the book’s explosive action. Characters move quickly through changing landscapes, cities, homes and modes of transport, shifting from quiet reflection to dramatic events, creating a constant sense of energy and motion.

From swordfights in bamboo groves and ambushes in alleys to crimes of passion and politics, the action comes suddenly, cutting through the delicacy of Japanese relations. In these scenes you can see the influence of the drama of detective fiction and Ikenami’s passion for theatre and his experience as a playwright. The influence of acclaimed filmmaker, Akira Kurosawa, known for his period samurai films in the 1950s and 1960s that popularised the genre, including Seven Samurai (1954), Throne of Blood (1957) and Yojimbo (1961), cannot be overstated.

Although it’s the first book in a long-running series, the story leaves a sense of incompleteness, where solving the crime doesn’t necessarily bring full resolution. In this is not only the social part of the mystery genre, but also the Japanese appreciation of impermanence and incompletion. What we are left with is the understanding of how important social relations are, which trump even justice.

Navigating uncertain waters of morality in a changing world of divided loyalties and motivations, bushido and honour are the only guides on which the samurai can depend – whatever the interpretation. More than just a swashbuckling adventure through Edo, The Samurai Detectives is an important contribution to the detective genre, using the beauty of its world and the struggles of its characters to offer insight into Japan itself.

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Hui-Ying Kerr previously received funding from the AHRC (now UKRI), for her doctorate in History of Design (2010 – 2013) on Japan in the 1980s Bubble Economy, including an AHRC-IPS grant for her fieldwork in Japan in 2012.

– ref. The Samurai Detectives by Shōtarō Ikenami: a tale of honour, desire and mystery in Edo Japan – https://theconversation.com/the-samurai-detectives-by-shotaro-ikenami-a-tale-of-honour-desire-and-mystery-in-edo-japan-268685

November 3, 2025

All government shutdowns disrupt science − in 2025, the consequences extend far beyond a lapse in funding

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kenneth M. Evans, Fellow in Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

The government shutdown will continue until Congress can pass a bill reopening it. Samuel Corum/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. science always suffers during government shutdowns. Funding lapses send government scientists home without pay. Federal agencies suspend new grant opportunities, place expert review panels on hold, and stop collecting and analyzing critical public datasets that tell us about the economy, the environment and public health.

In 2025, the stakes are higher than in past shutdowns.

This shutdown arrives at a time of massive upheaval to American science and innovation driven by President Donald Trump’s ongoing attempts to extend executive power and assert political control of scientific institutions.

With the shutdown entering its fifth week, and with no end in sight, the Trump administration’s rapid and contentious changes to federal research policy are rewriting the social contract between the U.S. government and research universities – where the government provides funding and autonomy in exchange for the promise of downstream public benefits.

As a physicist and policy scholar, I both study and have a vested interest in the state of U.S. science funding as a recipient of federal grants. I write about the history and governance of American science policy, including the nation’s investments in research and development.

In the context of broader policy reforms to federal grantmaking, student and high-skilled immigration, and scientific integrity, this shutdown has both known and unknown consequences for the future of U.S. science.

Funding freezes, data gaps and unpaid workers

Over the past two decades, the story of government shutdowns has become all too familiar. Shutdowns occur when Congress fails to pass an appropriations bill before the start of the new fiscal year on Oct. 1, and, paraphrasing Article 1, Section 9 of the U.S. Constitution, the government can no longer spend money.

This funding gap affects all but essential government operations, such as the work of postal workers, air traffic controllers and satellite operators. Nonessential employees, including tens of thousands of government scientists, are barred from working and stop receiving paychecks.

With scientists and program officers at home, activities at the nearly two dozen federal agencies participating in research and development, such as the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health, come to a halt. New grant opportunities and review panels are postponed or canceled, researchers at government laboratories stop collecting and analyzing data, and university projects reliant on federal funding are put at risk.

Extended shutdowns accelerate the damage. They leave bigger gaps in government data, throw federal employees into debt or lead them to dip into their savings, and force academic institutions to lay off staff paid through government grants and contracts.

Funding, public services and the rule of law

Even for shutdowns lasting a few days, it can take science agencies months to catch up on the backlog of paperwork, paychecks and peer review panels before they return to regular operations.

This year, the government faces mounting challenges to overcome once the shutdown ends: Trump and the director of the White House budget office, Russell Vought, are using the shutdown as an opportunity to “shutter the bureaucracy” and pressure universities to bend to the administration’s ideological positions on topics such as campus speech, gender identity and admission standards.

As the budget standoff nears the record for the longest shutdown ever, agency furloughs, reductions in force, canceled grants and jeopardized infrastructure projects document the devastating and immediate damage to the government’s ability to serve the public.

President Trump and Russel Vought stand by a microphone. In the background is a painting of a Theodore Roosevelt on a horse. — President Donald Trump alongside Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

However, the full impact of the shutdown and the Trump administration’s broader assaults on science to U.S. international competitiveness, economic security and electoral politics could take years to materialize.

In parallel, the dramatic drop in international student enrollment, the financial squeeze facing research institutions, and research security measures to curb foreign interference spell an uncertain future for American higher education.

With neither the White House nor Congress showing signs of reaching a budget deal, Trump continues to test the limits of executive authority, reinterpreting the law – or simply ignoring it.

Earlier in October, Trump redirected unspent research funding to pay furloughed service members before they missed their Oct. 15 paycheck. Changing appropriated funds directly challenges the power vested in Congress – not the president – to control federal spending.

The White House’s promise to fire an additional 10,000 civil servants during the shutdown, its threat to withhold back pay from furloughed workers and its push to end any programs with lapsed funding “not consistent with the President’s priorities” similarly move to broaden presidential power.

Here, the damage to science could snowball. If Trump and Vought chip enough authority away from Congress by making funding decisions or shuttering statutory agencies, the next three years will see an untold amount of impounded, rescinded or repurposed research funds.

A lab filled with scientific equipment but not staffed. — The government shutdown has emptied many laboratories staffed by federal scientists. Combined with other actions by the Trump administration, more scientists could continue to lose funding.
Monty Rakusen/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Science, democracy and global competition

While technology has long served as a core pillar of national and economic security, science has only recently reemerged as a key driver of greater geopolitical and cultural change.

China’s extraordinary rise in science over the past three decades and its arrival as the United States’ chief technological competitor has upended conventional wisdom that innovation can thrive only in liberal democracies.

The White House’s efforts to centralize federal grantmaking, restrict free speech, erase public data and expand surveillance mirror China’s successful playbook for building scientific capacity while suppressing dissent.

As the shape of the Trump administration’s vision for American science has come into focus, what remains unclear is whether, after the shutdown, it can outcompete China by following its lead.

Kenneth Evans receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the American Institute of Physics, and the Clinton Foundation. He is affiliated with Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

– ref. All government shutdowns disrupt science − in 2025, the consequences extend far beyond a lapse in funding – https://theconversation.com/all-government-shutdowns-disrupt-science-in-2025-the-consequences-extend-far-beyond-a-lapse-in-funding-267182