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Africa’s city planners must look to the global south for solutions: Johannesburg and São Paulo offer useful insights

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Astrid R.N. Haas, Research associate at African Centre for Cities, University of Cape Town

For decades, the dominant theories and models in urban studies have been built from the experience of a small set of mostly western cities. Other urban contexts, particularly those in Africa, Latin America and Asia, have too often been treated as peripheral, as if they simply copy or lag behind “northern” norms.

Urban geographer Jennifer Robinson has called this out, arguing that urban theory needs to take seriously the diverse realities of all cities. This means starting from places like Johannesburg, South Africa’s commercial capital, and São Paulo, Brazil’s financial capital, not just as isolated case studies, but rather as central sites for understanding dynamic urban processes. The majority of urbanisation in the coming decade will take place in contexts just like these.

I came to Urban Power, a book written by professor of sociology and international affairs at Princeton University Benjamin Bradlow last year, with this framing in mind.

Bradlow’s focus is on three essential urban public goods in São Paulo, population 22 million people, and Johannesburg, population 6.5 million people: housing, transport and sanitation.

His central question is: why are some cities more effective than others at reducing inequalities in the built environment?

The answer lies in what Bradlow calls urban power.

What is ‘urban power’?

Bradlow defines urban power as the way formal and informal relationships come together in a city that influences how that city is governed and ultimately how the public services and infrastructures are distributed across the urban space. Two elements determine how well this functions in any given city context.

First, embeddedness – the ties between city government and social movements in civil society. Second is cohesion. This is the abiltiy of city governments to coordinate across their own departments and agencies.

Bradlow argues that effective urban power is built when both embeddedness and cohesion are strong, as these determine how well policy is informed by and accountable to those most affected.

Thus struggles to build and exercise such power form a core foundation of urban governance. This ultimately shapes both the distribution of urban public goods and how effectively they reach the most marginalised.

Basically, it’s about how those in power are willing and able to coordinate with society and within government to meet everybody’s needs fairly.

Housing: different paths

As São Paulo (1980s) and Johannesburg (1990s) entered their democratic eras, both were led by mayors who explicitly committed to redistributing wealth by extending adequate housing to the most excluded neighbourhoods.

Yet, housing is also the sector in which Bradlow finds some of the starkest contrasts in outcomes between the two cities.

During South Africa’s democratic transition, the rallying cry of “one city, one tax base” brought together neighbourhood associations, social movements and local branches of trade unions. To overcome the fiscal fragmentation left by apartheid, wealthy and largely white areas of the city were to contribute property taxes to a central fiscal administration. This central body would then cross-subsidise precisely the new capital investments in poor black townships.

But in the years that followed, the governing African National Congress (ANC) party demobilised social movements in favour of a centralised one-party system.

The effects of this were evident in Johannesburg. Weakened ties between the city government and civil society (embeddedness) led to the municipal bureaucracy becoming increasingly detached from housing movements. As a result, it was poorly positioned to challenge the dominance of private real-estate interests.

In São Paulo, the municipal bureaucracy maintained close ties with housing movements. It used this embeddedness to build cohesion within its own ranks. This enabled the city to make use of national mandates to challenge the power of real-estate interests and introduce innovations that expanded social housing.

Central to this effort was the 2001 City Statute. This piece of legislation enshrined the “social function of property,” a constitutional right, at the city level. The legal framework unlocked tools such as the Special Zones of Social Interest (ZEIS), which reserved well-located land for social housing.

Crucially, São Paulo became one of the first major Brazilian cities to adopt a master plan that explicitly advanced the redistributive goals of housing movements.

São Paulo’s housing story is far from perfect. And the city still struggles to meet the demand for affordable housing. Nevertheless, it has made important strides.

Transport: institutions or technology first?

Bradlow illustrates how São Paulo pursued an “institutions first” approach towards transport. For years, social movements had pressed for lower fares and better services to the city’s peripheries. Responding to these demands, the Erundina administration (1989-1992) restructured the relationship between private bus operators and the municipal concessioning authority. Fare revenue was collected by the authority itself. It then paid operators based on the quality and quantity of service provided.

This shift allowed the city to introduce reforms like the bilhete único, a single ticket valid across the entire network. It meant that shorter trips subsidised longer ones. This made access more equitable regardless of where one lived. In addition, large and small operators were integrated into a single system, revenue became more predictable, and planning could prioritise network-wide benefits.

Johannesburg, by contrast, led with a “technology first” approach. The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, Rea Vaya, emerged in the early 2000s. However, the minibus taxi operators, who were the backbone of existing transport, were largely excluded from the planning process.

The BRT’s economics were challenging from the outset, given Johannesburg’s spatial fragmentation. Operators were offered shares in newly created bus companies if they withdrew their taxis. But this arrangement relied on an untested profit model.

Institutional complexity (lack of cohesison) compounded the problem. Operational licences and recapitalisation were controlled at the provincial rather than the municipal level. Most importantly, the lack of embeddedness meant that resistance from the local operators was almost inevitable.

The comparison of the transport sector highlights a recurring theme. São Paulo’s slower, messier process fostered embeddedness. It treated redistribution through collective transport as a political project rather than a technocratic exercise. Johannesburg pursued a faster, technology-driven route that bypassed the negotiations which might have made the system more sustainable.

Sanitation: building accountability

If housing is a residential public good and transport a networked one, sanitation sits in between. It’s delivered to individual homes, but reliant on city-wide infrastructure.

Bradlow highlights how in São Paulo, the municipal government succeeded in creating downward accountability from the state-level sanitation company (cohesion). By doing so, it shifted decision-making power closer to the local level. This ensured that service priorities better reflected the city’s everyday realities rather than distant state-level agendas.

The new alignment made it possible to extend services into informal settlements without requiring formal tenure, a critical flexibility that had long been a barrier to inclusion. At the same time, it strengthened municipal planning and coordination capacity. Service delivery became more firmly embedded within the city’s own governance structures.

In Johannesburg, by contrast, weak cohesion, reflected in the lack of planning integration, meant housing projects were often implemented without corresponding sanitation infrastructure. Reforms had separated sanitation from broader spatial planning, fostering fragmented governance.

The city also adopted a model shaped by private-sector principles. Examples include self-financing, performance-based contracting, and competition. In practice, these led to service cuts in poorer areas where cost recovery was impossible.

The comparison illustrates how the same broad national reform agenda can play out very differently depending on municipal capacity and institutional alignment (cohesion).

Why the comparison matters

Cross-context comparisons reveal patterns and possibilities that single-city studies might miss. Bradlow’s book illuminates how rapid urbanisation, entrenched inequality and fiscal constraints intersect. These insights have significance far beyond these cases.

His book is a call for urban theory to start from the global south not as an afterthought, but as a foundation. As urban studies specialist Jane Jacobs observed:

Cities have the capability of providing something for everybody only because, and only when, they are created by everybody.

Bradlow’s book shows, with precision, what it takes, politically and institutionally, to make that vision real.

For anyone interested in the politics of making cities fairer, it is essential reading.

The Conversation

Astrid R.N. Haas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Africa’s city planners must look to the global south for solutions: Johannesburg and São Paulo offer useful insights – https://theconversation.com/africas-city-planners-must-look-to-the-global-south-for-solutions-johannesburg-and-sao-paulo-offer-useful-insights-263285

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African debt and climate change: how the ICJ’s Vanuatu ruling could be used for broader justice

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Danny Bradlow, Professor/Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancement of Scholarship, University of Pretoria

African sovereign debtors in distress face terrible choices. They are often forced to choose between fully paying their creditors and financing the needs of their populations – health, education, renewable energy, water. Discussions with their creditors focus on financial, economic and contractual issues. The environmental and social impacts of their situation are largely excluded from negotiations.

Thanks to the initiative of some Vanuatan law students, this may be about to change.

Vanuatu is a country consisting of small islands in the south Pacific. It has been ranked as one of the countries most affected by climate change, facing threats of rising sea levels and storm surges.

In 2019, a law professor in Vanuatu, Justin Rose, asked his students to propose ways to deal with the climate threat confronting their country.

They suggested that Vanuatu ask the United Nations general assembly to request an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice on the international legal obligations of states regarding climate change. They convinced their government to adopt their proposal. They also mobilised international support, saying they wanted to take the world’s biggest problem to the world’s highest court.

In 2023, the UN general assembly agreed to seek the International Court of Justice’s advice on the following two issues:

  • the obligations of states under international law to protect the environment from the impact of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions

  • the legal consequences for states if they fail to meet these obligations and thereby cause significant environmental harm for present and future generations.

The case attracted unprecedented attention. The court received over 150 written submissions. Over 100 states and international organisations made oral presentations in nine days of public hearings. On 23 July 2025, the International Court of Justice issued a unanimous advisory opinion. It was only the fifth time in its nearly 80-year history to do so.

The court’s opinion was that the obligations of states extend beyond the treaties they have signed and ratified. They also include obligations arising from customary international law. This is the law that states practise out of a sense of legal obligation. It is binding on all states and international organisations, regardless of whether they have signed any applicable treaty.

The rules that matter

The court declared that there are two relevant customary international legal obligations.

The first is a duty to prevent significant harm to the environment. This requires states to exercise due diligence before acting in ways that could cause environmental damage. They must assess both the probability of causing serious harm and the likely extent of any expected impacts.

In making these assessments, states must take into account current binding and non-binding international standards. It also requires states to ensure that companies and individuals subject to their jurisdiction comply with these duties.

The second is a duty to cooperate with other states to protect the environment and to help solve international problems of an economic, social, cultural or humanitarian nature. Here, the court opined that a healthy environment is a pre-condition for the enjoyment of human rights. It affects the rights to life, health and livelihoods, and the rights of children, women and indigenous people.

The court, in discussing the second issue, advised that states can be held legally responsible if they do not take all measures within their power to prevent significant environmental harm. It noted that while all states have this duty, its precise contents will vary depending on their capabilities. The critical factor is the effort the states make and not the results they produce.

The debt angle

Although the court’s opinion is only advisory, it is likely to be highly influential. It was informed by a wide range of submissions. It was a unanimous decision of 15 judges who come from 15 countries.

The fact that the court grounded its decision, in part, on customary international environmental and human rights grounds means that it has implications for any state actions that can have significant adverse impacts on climate, the environment and customary human rights.

My work as an international lawyer working on sovereign debt and development finance convinces me that this includes the renegotiation or restructuring of African debt.

Whatever action African sovereign debtors take to deal with their debt crisis will affect their ability to manage their greenhouse gas emissions. It will also affect their ability to deliver on their obligations to their citizens’ rights. These include the rights to life, health and livelihoods.

This suggests that African sovereign debtors and their creditors need to understand the environmental and climate impacts of their transactions.

They must also work together to resolve their transactions’ negative environmental, social, economic and cultural impacts. Their respective responsibilities will differ depending on their capabilities.

The International Court of Justice opinion may therefore offer new opportunities to make debtor and creditor states, and creditor institutions, accept responsibility for the environmental and social impacts of their actions.

Three possible avenues for relief

There could be at least three ways to relate the climate opinion to debt.

First, the debtor and its stakeholders can use the decision to bolster their arguments for including the environmental and social impacts of debt in their negotiations. They can point out that the debtor state cannot avoid international legal responsibility for the effects of the transaction on its greenhouse gas emissions and on the human rights of its citizens.

They can also point out that its creditors and their home states also have a legal obligation to assess these impacts and cooperate in managing them.

Second, the stakeholders can remind both the sovereign debtor and its creditors about the content of their international legal responsibilities. There are international norms and standards that can help establish that content.

Some of them are:

In addition, there are many private financial institutions that have human rights and environmental and social policies that often specifically refer to these international standards.

Third, drawing inspiration from the Vanuatu law students, activists around the world can use the judgment to strengthen their arguments. They can say that creditor and debtor states have an international legal duty to prevent significant harm to the environment and to cooperate to protect the environment. This duty extends to ensuring that companies and individuals subject to their jurisdiction act in conformity with these duties. They can be held legally responsible for failing to comply with these duties.

Finally, there are international mechanisms that non-state actors can use to hold debtors and creditors accountable for failing to perform their duties. These include the National Contact Points. These exist in each state that has signed on to the OECD Principles of Responsible Conduct for Multinational Enterprises. Another possibility is the independent accountability mechanisms in the multilateral development banks.

There are also the courts in the growing number of states in which governments, central banks and private actors have been sued for violating their obligations to climate change.

States and financial institutions, of course, can avoid these consequences by respecting the court’s opinion and developing ways of managing African sovereign debt that comply with its international legal advice.

The Conversation

Danny Bradlow, in addition to his position at the University of Pretoria is Senior G20 Advisor to the South African Institute of International Affairs, a Compliance Officer in the Social and Environmental Compliance Unit of UNDP and a Senior Non-Resident Fellow in the Global Development Policy Center, Boston University.

– ref. African debt and climate change: how the ICJ’s Vanuatu ruling could be used for broader justice – https://theconversation.com/african-debt-and-climate-change-how-the-icjs-vanuatu-ruling-could-be-used-for-broader-justice-263859

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What was Jane Austen’s best novel? These experts think they know

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lucy Thompson, Lecturer in Nineteenth-Century Literature and Creative Writing, Aberystwyth University

To mark the 250th anniversary of her birth, we’re pitting Jane Austen’s much-loved novels against each other in a battle of wit, charm and romance. Six leading Austen experts have made their case for her ultimate novel, but the winner is down to you. Cast your vote in the poll at the end of the article, and let us know the reason for your choice in the comments. This is Jane Austen Fight Club – it’s bonnets at dawn…

Sense and Sensibility (1811)

Championed by Lucy Thompson, lecturer in 19th-century literature and creative writing, Aberystwyth University

Sense and Sensibility is Austen’s most quietly radical novel. As her first published work, it may be less polished than her later fiction, but it is no less incisive.

It lays bare the emotional cost of living in a world governed by reputation, family obligation and gendered expectation. Excluded from inheritance and displaced from their home, the Dashwood sisters must navigate constant scrutiny. Through Elinor and Marianne, Austen dramatises two strategies for survival in a society obsessed with appearances.

Born from an earlier epistolary draft, the novel retains a sharp interest in how information circulates and misleads. Gossip doesn’t just constrain; it distorts. Letters are spied upon, conversations overheard. Assumptions take on the weight of fact.

In this world, everyone watches – but not everyone truly sees. Sense and Sensibility may wear a quieter face than Emma or Pride and Prejudice, but it is Austen’s sharpest early critique of how appearances govern lives.

This article is part of a series commemorating the 250th anniversary of Jane Austen’s birth. Despite having published only six books, she is one of the best-known authors in history. These articles explore the legacy and life of this incredible writer.

Pride and Prejudice (1813)

Championed by Andrew McInnes, reader in English literature, Edge Hill University

Everyone already knows the best Austen novel: Pride and Prejudice. Why? Elizabeth Bennet. Lizzy is so charismatic that you might mistake the novel’s title for an abstract problem, and not Darcy’s pride versus her prejudice.

We share her prejudices because Austen makes them so delicious. We roll our eyes at Mrs Bennet because Lizzy finds her exasperating. Wickham is seductive because he satisfies our inner bitch. And we fall in love with Darcy alongside Lizzy.

Pride and Prejudice is the funniest and sexiest of Austen’s novels. In it, she allows herself a swoon-worthy romance without a hitch. Unlike Northanger Abbey’s Henry Tilney, Darcy doesn’t fall in love because Lizzy adores him, but falls first. Darcy is a complex man – shy, domineering, funny – and not a drip like Eds Ferrars (Sense and Sensibility) or Bertram (Mansfield Park). And unlike Emma, Lizzy builds healthy relationships with other women.

Austen called Pride and Prejudice “too light and bright and sparkling” and joked that it could do with an essay on Walter Scott or Napoleon. But we know that would be a crime. It is just light and bright and sparkling enough to outshine the others.

Mansfield Park (1814)

Championed by Amanda Vickery, professor in early modern history, Queen Mary University of London

Pride and Prejudice is often the first grown-up novel young girls read, but Mansfield Park is the only Austen novel about a little girl growing up.

All Austen’s fictions are versions of the female-centred courtship novel, usually covering a single year, with the heroine safely married to a deserving gentleman by the last page. Yet her heroines are mostly formed young women. Only in Mansfield Park do we meet our heroine as a little girl – and a puny and cowering little girl at that.

Mansfield Park is Austen’s bildungsroman (the novel of becoming) on a par with that other girls’ classic, Charlotte Bronte’s Jane Eyre (1847). Like poor, plain Jane, Fanny Price is a girl of no consequence – a Cinderella figure in a mansion of the rich and selfish.

Fanny is shy, frail and physically timid, but she is not a moral coward. She learns to bear her lot with dignity, and to hold fast to what she believes. By volume three, Fanny is at last the centre of her own story. Mansfield Park is not just a love story, it is a life story.

Emma (1815)

Championed by Ruvani Ranasinha, professor of global literature, King’s College London

Emma Woodhouse is Jane Austen’s most vividly realised, proto-feminist heroine. Witty, clever and attractive, Emma is supremely self-confident and flawed. She challenges every expectation of female propriety and is full of contradictions: self-centred yet deeply attached to her hypochondriac, indulgent father; snobbish but kind.

Emma revels in meddling in the romantic lives of others, especially her protégée, Harriet Smith. When her carefully laid plans unravel, the busybody makes mortifying mistakes and learns self-knowledge: “It darted through her with the speed of an arrow, that Mr Knightley must marry no-one but herself!”

All Austen’s novels are shot through with the awareness of the role of wealth and class in marriage. But Emma – “an heiress of thirty thousand pounds” – is free from the intense competition among the women for young men with positions and prospects. At the same time, she attracts men like Mr Elton seeking women with landed connections and dowries. This is why the novel both responds to Austen’s historical moment and speaks to our own.

Northanger Abbey (1817)

Championed by Octavia Cox, departmental lecturer in English literature, University of Oxford

Northanger Abbey is a riot of jokes. Nobody and nothing is spared: not the heroine, convention, society – even readers. There’s everything marvellous you’d expect from an Austen novel (sharp satire of patriarchy and socioeconomic weaponisation, laughter at human absurdity and pompousness, beautifully wrought witty expression, a rollicking good yarn, irony), but with extra sass.

Its bombastic intrusive authorial narrative voice (perhaps the closest we get to Austen’s own), constantly makes in-jokes with readers about the action. It’s Austen’s most meta-fictional text, playing with readers’ expectations about novels (for example, joking that her novel, ironically, “is a new circumstance in romance” despite depicting nothing “new in common life”).

Its “defence of the novel” passage is a proto-feminist rallying call-to-arms for female authors to celebrate each other’s work. Northanger Abbey’s meta-fictionality reveals much about Austen’s aim and style as an author, making it a must-read for all Austen-lovers. Oh, and it’s funny. Damned funny.

Persuasion (1817)

Championed by Richard de Ritter, lecturer in English literature, University of Leeds

Persuasion contains the greatest love letter in all English literature. It is the culmination of a slow-burning romance between the heroine, Anne Elliot, and Captain Frederick Wentworth, the man she has loved for eight long years. “You pierce my soul,” Wentworth writes to Anne with striking vulnerability: “I am half agony, half hope. Tell me not that I am too late.” (Spoiler: he is not too late.)

The brilliance of Persuasion lies in the depiction of its complex heroine. At 27, Anne Elliot is older and wiser than Austen’s earlier protagonists. Disregarded by her comically narcissistic family, the depth of Anne’s personality is revealed by Austen’s prose style, which is at its most luminous and expressive. Readers are plunged into the mind of the novel’s heroine. We witness her innermost thoughts and feelings as she negotiates the awkwardness, excitement and, finally, the sheer joy of embracing a future with Wentworth.

Persuasion is the final novel that Austen completed before her death in 1817: she was at the peak of her powers. It is her most moving and her greatest work.

Now the experts have made their case, it’s your turn to decide which of Austen’s six completed novels is her best work. Vote in the poll below to and see if our other readers agree with you.

This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What was Jane Austen’s best novel? These experts think they know – https://theconversation.com/what-was-jane-austens-best-novel-these-experts-think-they-know-252669

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Why grow plants in space? They can improve how we produce food and medicine on Earth

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Troy Miller, Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Plants for Space, The University of Western Australia

ARC Centre of Excellence in Plants for Space, CC BY-ND

Sometime in the 2040s, humans may well reach a new frontier – Mars. To get there, we’ll need sustainable sources of food, medicines and materials.

As researchers who work on engineering plants to produce such resources in space, we sometimes get asked: “why?”. With issues such as climate change, inequality, global pandemics and environmental degradation, shouldn’t we be focused on Earth, not Mars?

But science can do both. And space research has a long history of not only satisfying the human instinct of exploration, but delivering transformational new inventions as we make discoveries along the way.

Plants not just for space

When the results of scientific research flow into the real world in practical ways, this is known as “research translation”.

These translations are often unexpected and unpredictable. For example, NASA’s need for compact, lightweight imaging technology in space led to the invention of the compact camera sensors we now have in smartphones, webcams, medical devices and more.

That shiny, reflective material used to deflect heat from buildings, appliances or even your car windshield? It’s an insulation technology perfected by NASA to protect spacecraft and astronauts from temperature fluctuations in space.

Within the next decade, we could see “space plants” directly and indirectly improving life on Earth. So what might space-ready plants look like and how could they benefit those of us who never leave Earth?

Flavour and nutrition

Plants nourish us and support our mental wellbeing, but this alone won’t sustain long-term space travel.

The modern space food menu largely consists of processed, long-life foods shipped along for the ride or delivered as cargo to the International Space Station. Anything fresh needs to be produced on the spot and farming animals isn’t an option.

To create a balanced space diet without the need to take dietary supplements, researchers have been developing nutritionally complete plant-based foods that have large quantities of high-quality protein. These will be pick-and-eat plants that can be grown and processed in space, and will provide an optimal balance of essential amino acids. They also include non-essential amino acids normally found in animals, such as taurine and creatine.

Improving plants in this way could help reshape agriculture on Earth, as plant-based diets are more sustainable for a planet facing a climate crisis and reduce global nutrient inequity.

Scientists are also researching plant-based food flavours and textures to address the common complaint from astronauts about “menu fatigue”. For decades, astronauts have reported their sense of taste is dulled in space, making spicy foods a station favourite.

A white box with lots of technical instruments around it and a few small plants with red chile peppers in them.
When astronauts grew chili peppers as part of the Plant-Habitat 04 experiment on the ISS, they were excited to eat some of the harvest while the rest was sent to Earth for analysis.
NASA

Environmental resistance

Space plants must also thrive in an unfamiliar environment. On Earth, plants rely on gravity to know which way to grow their roots and which way to grow their shoots. This is a process called gravitropism.

In space, gravitropism is confused, causing roots to grow in random directions because of the effects of microgravity on hormone signalling. Research efforts are ongoing to determine the effects of microgravity on plant growth.

Two charts showing plants in space with random roots while plants grown on the ground have roots that go straight down.
Plants grown on the ISS and at Kennedy Space Center during NASA expedition 39 in 2014 show the effects of microgravity on plant root growth.
Paul et al. (2017), PLOS One, CC BY

For example, water is “sticky” – it clumps together because molecules in water are attracted to each other, rather than pulled downwards into a puddle. In the absence of gravity, this results in sticky blobs of water that cling to surfaces such as plant roots and don’t flow anywhere because they’re held together by surface tension.

Furthermore, a lack of gravity also disrupts convection – it prevents gases from naturally mixing in water. This would limit oxygen availability to the roots of plants and result in low oxygen, also known as hypoxia stress.

Plant hypoxia also happens due to flooding during high rainfall and soil waterlogging. Engineering plants to tolerate microgravity-induced hypoxia will generate data for improving flood resistance in crops on Earth, reducing agricultural losses.

Water on the ISS clumps into blobs: in microgravity, the surface tension of water becomes the dominant force, causing the spherical structure.
NASA

More than food

On a Moon or Mars base, colonists wouldn’t be able to wait for months or years to resupply essential resources such as medicines or construction materials. So, space plants are being designed to provide more than just food.

Plants have been engineered to produce proteins that elicit immune responses and act as edible vaccines.

On Earth, many pharmaceuticals are produced and extracted from microbes. Plants can be engineered to produce medicinal compounds or building material precursors in similar ways, but these compounds are likely to negatively impact plant growth.

The ability to engineer plants to produce different chemicals in response to environmental cues would allow astronauts to switch plants from making food to making medicine – perhaps with the literal flick of a switch.

Genetic “circuits” responding to light and chemical signals are being developed, too. These have the potential to make crops more readily able to adapt to the stresses of a changing climate.

When innovations need to overcome extreme limitations – such as the environment of space – they can speed up and lead to solutions we wouldn’t otherwise come up with.

The race to land on the Moon led to the development of many everyday items. Now, we’re on the verge of a new biotechnological revolution, getting ready to boldly grow where no plant has grown before.

The Conversation

Troy Miller receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Farley Kwok van der Giezen receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Ryan Coates receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Why grow plants in space? They can improve how we produce food and medicine on Earth – https://theconversation.com/why-grow-plants-in-space-they-can-improve-how-we-produce-food-and-medicine-on-earth-263539

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Taylor Swift is engaged. She’s been getting her fans ready for this moment for 20 years

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Sarah Scales, PhD Candidate, School of Social Sciences, Media, Film and Education, Swinburne University of Technology

taylorswift/Instagram

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have announced their engagement, posting on Instagram images of the proposal with the caption “Your English teacher and your gym teacher are getting married”.

“America’s sweethearts”, the pair have been dating for two years. Now fans are saying this will be America’s version of the royal wedding.

Swift and Kelce’s post has already received over 24 million likes from the pair’s fans.

Swift’s love life has long been in the spotlight – both in her songs and in the news. So fans were perfectly primed for their outpouring of support and love.

But what is it about Swift – and her fans – that encourages such emotional reactions?

Understanding parasocial relationships

To understand the deep affection Swift’s fans have for her, it’s important to understand parasocial relationships.

A parasocial relationship is a one-sided relationship we develop with someone, typically a media figure, where there is no reciprocity. Through the media and artistic output, we develop knowledge and feelings, and begin to encounter the relationship the same way as we would a “real world” or interpersonal relationship – but there is no mutual development.

Every time we see them in the news or on social media, or listen to their songs, that’s a parasocial interaction we have with them. Then those interactions build until we feel as though we know them like a friend, or perhaps they fill a role as a mentor, or a crush.

Parasocial relationships mimic our real world relationships.

Swift’s fans are very passionate and she expertly harnesses this fanbase.

Swift builds on these relationships

Swift’s first album was released in 2006, and over the ensuing 20 years, she has had many iterations, or eras. This has given fans many entry points into her life, and the opportunity to grow up with her and experience their different life stages with her and her music.

Many other musicians may have long periods of stepping away from the spotlight between albums, so their fans aren’t receiving necessary parasocial interactions to maintain their relationship and closeness.

But Swift has released 11 studio albums and four re-rerecorded albums since 2006, with her 12th to be released this October. She is also a common figure in the news because of her high-status relationships and friendships. This has allowed fans to constantly build and flourish their relationship and closeness with her.

Her marketing savvy, the easter eggs she drops leaving fans always speculating, and the interest and buzz she generates, creates a sense of community and belonging among fans which is global, universal and easily accessible online.

She has a strong perceived authenticity, where fans feel as though they truly know her, and they feel as though she cares about them individually. For non-fans, this may not make sense: she is an untouchable billionaire who has broken records for her crowd sizes. But this is one of the ways parasociality works: you feel as though the celebrity is your close friend and that they care for you.

Swift generates and feeds into these emotions. In hosting listening parties at her house or picking fans from the crowd to join her onstage, she creates the sense she is a genuine person – and keeps the illusion that, maybe one day, that could be you.

Crafting the celebrity image

Swift’s romantic relationships and close personal friendships are a key part of her celebrity image. Throughout her whole career these relationships have been reported on, drawing attention and interest.

Her fans see her relationships playing out in the news through various paparazzi images and articles. Then they hear about these relationships in her songs, as a major theme of her music is love and heartbreak. Because her music is so centred around love and heartbreak, it makes sense love has become a core part of her celebrity image.

Her relationship with Kelce is probably one of the most reported-on relationships she has had. She was with the actor Joe Alwyn for six years, but that was a much more private relationship.

For the past two years, Swift and Kelce have been in the limelight, and fans have felt a joy in seeing her in this relationship and getting to witness it.

Your English teacher is getting married

Swift clearly has an understanding of her fans and their parasocial relationships with her.

Fans have long called Swift their “English teacher” because her songwriting is so revered. Her fans see a lot of poetry in her music, and feel they have learnt a lot through this poetry.

In calling themselves “your English teacher and your gym teacher”, Swift and Kelce are placing themselves in the roles their fans have cast them as.

The pair know their fans have a closeness with the couple – and even though that isn’t reciprocated by Swift and Kelce, the pair are placing themselves in the position of role models.

Language like this closes the gap between celebrities and ordinary people. If you imagine your teachers getting married – someone you saw every day and you personally knew – that would be exciting. To word it in that way brings them down to a more personable level, drawing them, once again, closer to their fans.

The Conversation

Sarah Scales does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Taylor Swift is engaged. She’s been getting her fans ready for this moment for 20 years – https://theconversation.com/taylor-swift-is-engaged-shes-been-getting-her-fans-ready-for-this-moment-for-20-years-264027

Posted on

I’m a woman approaching middle age, do I need to get my hormones checked?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Susan Davis, Chair of Women’s Health, Monash University

If you’re a woman approaching middle age and you’re on social media, you might have been urged to get your hormones checked.

These posts often highlight troubling symptoms of perimenopause. Then they flag blood tests as a way to help you understand what’s going on and to guide treatment.

Some women are now turning to wellness providers and online services seeking these types of tests, often at substantial expense.

But these tests don’t provide any benefits. An editorial in the British medical journal BMJ has raised an alert about these tests. The authors conclude they’re unnecessary and shouldn’t guide treatment decisions.

So what hormonal changes occur in the transition to menopause? And why is hormonal testing mostly unhelpful?

What do hormones do during menstrual cycles?

The key hormones the ovaries produce before menopause are oestrogens (mostly as oestradiol, but also as oestrone) together with progesterone and testosterone.

The amount of each hormone produced changes during the menstrual cycle.

Blood oestradiol levels double around the time of ovulation. This is followed by an increase in progesterone.

Testosterone blood levels also increase around ovulation, but the increase is less than about 10%.

What’s the difference between menopause and perimenopause?

Menopause happens when the ovaries have lost the capacity to produce an egg.
After menopause, oestrogen and progesterone blood levels are dramatically lower than before menopause.

Perimenopause is the time between being pre-menopausal, through to the first 12 months after having the last menstrual bleed. But the end of perimenopause is difficult to determine if you don’t menstruate, for example after a hysterectomy or when you have a hormonal intra-uterine device (IUD).

Testosterone blood levels don’t meaningfully change at natural menopause; they slowly decline with age.

What are the symptoms of perimenopause?

During the transition to menopause, the ovaries function haphazardly. So oestrogen and progesterone blood levels can be unpredictably very high or very low.

Hot flushes and night sweats, also known as vasomotor symptoms, commonly start in early perimenopause and may persist for many years. Vasomotor symptoms occur intermittently during perimenopause and persist after menopause.

Perimenopause is identified by irregular periods (cycles closer together or further apart) or changed bleeding patterns (bleeding becoming scant or heavy), together with the onset of vasomotor and other symptoms such as:

  • increased abdominal fat
  • low mood
  • vaginal irritation and dryness
  • urinary symptoms, such as bladder irritability
  • memory difficulties, or “brain fog”. This seems to relate to the fluctuations in oestrogen levels and mostly resolves in the early postmenopausal years.

Our recent study shows the onset of vasomotor symptoms is the hallmark of perimenopause, and should also be used to diagnose perimenopause in women not menstruating (after hysterectomy or for other reasons).

Can a blood test tell you’re perimenopausal?

Blood oestradiol and progesterone levels are continually fluctuating during perimenopause. A blood test cannot be “timed” to any specific part of the cycle, as cycles vary in length and frequency.

So the results can’t generally be interpreted and are therefore not helpful.

However, it’s sensible to have blood tests to check for common causes of fatigue (under-active thyroid or iron deficiency) and palpitations and overheating (over-active thyroid).

How is perimenopause managed?

Treating perimenopause is not the same as treatment after menopause. Perimenopause is a time of hormonal chaos, rather than deficiency. So standard menopause hormone therapy (also called MHT) can make things worse.

Adding in an extra layer of hormones with the MHT that’s used after menopause will ease symptoms during the hormone lows, but often worsens symptoms during hormone highs (heavy bleeding, breast tenderness, fluid retention).

Instead, getting on top of perimenopause requires managing heavy and unscheduled bleeding, symptom relief, and, where needed, contraception, as the ovaries are still randomly producing eggs.

Can blood tests individualise hormone therapy?

No. Blood hormone tests can’t determine whether you might benefit from menopause hormone therapy or what dose you might need.

People’s oestrogen receptors have different levels of sensitivity and are turned up and down by other proteins and hormones in the cells. So even achieving the same blood oestradiol level with oestrogen therapy can have completely different effects in different people.

Individuals also respond differently to prescribed oestrogen, whether it’s tablet or through the skin. For transdermal patches or gels, the temperature of the skin, exercise, skin hydration and site of application affect absorption.

After absorption, oestradiol is metabolised rapidly to other oestrogens which are not measured in a standard blood test. So the total amount of oestrogen circulating is not determined by simply measuring blood oestradiol.

Do you need a blood test to check your dose?

No. There is no target blood oestradiol level that is right for everyone, and no established blood level that will prevent bone loss, heart disease or dementia.

Nor is there a perfect time of day to measure oestradiol, as the pattern of absorption of oestrogen over 24 hours varies, especially with transdermal oestradiol.

Plus, different commercial laboratories use different measurement systems so you cannot always directly compare test results between laboratories.

What about progestogen and testosterone?

Progestogens, including progesterone, are required to protect against thickening of the uterine lining by oestrogen.

The type and dose of progestogen needed can vary substantially and this cannot be predicted, or fine tuned, by a blood test.

For testosterone, there is no cut-off below which a woman can be diagnosed as having “insufficient testosterone”.

Whether hormone therapy involves oestrogen, progesterone or testosterone, for women who experience natural menopause after the age of 45, diagnosis and treatment is determined on symptoms, not blood hormone levels.

The Conversation

Susan Davis has served on Advisory Boards for Theramex, Astellas, Abbott Laboratories, and Besins Healthcare, and as a consultant to Besins Healthcare. She receives funding from the NHMRC, Medical research Future Fund, MS Australia and the Heart Foundation and has received research support from Lawley pharmaceuticals paid to Monash University. She is affiliated with the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

– ref. I’m a woman approaching middle age, do I need to get my hormones checked? – https://theconversation.com/im-a-woman-approaching-middle-age-do-i-need-to-get-my-hormones-checked-263541

Posted on

Trump’s push to fire Fed governor threatens central bank independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation)

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Ana Carolina Garriga, Professor. Department of Government, University of Essex

The fate of Lisa Cook, who is fighting attempts by President Donald Trump to remove her from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, has huge implications for a keystone of good economic policy: central bank independence.

At the heart of her firing attempt – and other moves to undermine the Fed by the Trump administration – is a power struggle. Central banks, which are public institutions that manage a country’s currency and its monetary policy, have an extraordinary amount of power. By controlling the flow of money and credit in a country, they can affect economic growth, inflation, employment and financial stability.

These are powers that many politicians would like to control or at least manipulate. That’s because monetary policy can provide governments with economic boosts at key times, such as around elections or during periods of falling popularity.

The problem is that short-lived, politically motivated moves may be detrimental to the long-term economic well-being of a nation. They may, in other words, saddle the economy with problems further down the line.

That is why central banks across the globe tend to receive significant leeway to set interest rates independently and free from the electoral wishes of politicians.

In fact, monetary policymaking that is data-driven and technocratic, rather than politically motivated, has since the early 1990s been seen as the gold standard of governance of national finances and has largely achieved its main purpose of keeping inflation relatively low and stable.

But despite independence being seen to work, central banks over the past decade have come under increased pressure from politicians.

Trump is one recent example. In his first term as president, he criticized his own choice to head the U.S. Federal Reserve and demanded lower interest rates.

Attacks on the Fed have accelerated in Trump’s second administration. In April 2025, Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell in an online post accusing him of being “TOO LATE AND WRONG” on interest rate cuts, while suggesting that the central banker’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” Unable to force Powell out, Trump has now brought the power struggle to a head with his firing of Cook, nominally over allegations that the Fed governor falsified records in a mortgage application. Cook has said that the president does not have the grounds or authority to fire her.

As political economists, we are not surprised to see politicians try to exert influence on central banks. For one thing, central banks remain part of the government bureaucracy, and independence granted to them can always be reversed – either by changing laws or backtracking on established practices.

Moreover, the reason politicians may want to interfere in monetary policy is that low interest rates remain a potent, quick method to boost an economy. And while politicians know that there are costs to besieging an independent central bank – financial markets may react negatively or inflation may flare up – short-term control of a powerful policy tool can prove irresistible.

Legislating independence

If monetary policy is such a coveted policy tool, how have central banks held off politicians and stayed independent? And is this independence being eroded?

Broadly, central banks are protected by laws that offer long tenures to their leadership, allow them to focus policy primarily on inflation, and severely limit lending to the rest of the government.

Of course, such legislation cannot anticipate all future contingencies, which may open the door for political interference or for practices that break the law. And sometimes central bankers are unceremoniously fired.

However, laws do keep politicians in line. For example, even in authoritarian countries, laws protecting central banks from political interference have helped reduce inflation and restricted central bank lending to the government.

In our own research, we have detailed the ways that laws have insulated central banks from the rest of the government, but also the recent trend of eroding this legal independence.

Politicizing appointees

Around the world, appointments to central bank leadership are political – elected politicians select candidates based on career credentials, political affiliation and, importantly, their dislike or tolerance of inflation.

But lawmakers in different countries exercise different degrees of political control.

A 2025 study shows that the large majority of central bank leaders – about 70% – are appointed by the head of government alone or with the intervention of other members of the executive branch. This ensures that the preferences of the central bank are closer to the government’s, which can boost the central bank’s legitimacy in democratic countries, but at the risk of permeability to political influence.

Alternatively, appointments can involve the legislative power or even the central bank’s own board. In the U.S., while the president nominates members of the Federal Reserve Board, the Senate can and has rejected unconventional or incompetent candidates.

Moreover, even if appointments are political, many central bankers stay in office long after the people who appointed them have been voted out. By the end of 2023, the most common length of the governors’ appointment is five years, and in 41 countries the legal mandate was six years or longer. Powell is set to stay on as Fed chair until his term expires in 2026. The Fed chair position has traditionally been protected by law, as Powell himself acknowledged in November 2024: “We’re not removable except for cause. We serve very long terms, seemingly endless terms. So we’re protected into law. Congress could change that law, but I don’t think there’s any danger of that.”

In the 2000s, several countries shortened the tenure of their central banks’ governors to four or five years. Sometimes, this was part of broader restrictions in central bank independence, as was the case in Iceland in 2001, Ghana in 2002 and Romania in 2004.

The low inflation objective

As of 2023, all but six central banks globally had low inflation as their main goal. Yet many central banks are required by law to try to achieve additional and sometimes conflicting goals, such as financial stability, full employment or support for the government’s policies.

This is the case for 38 central banks that either have the explicit dual mandate of price stability and employment or more complex goals. In Argentina, for example, the central bank’s mandate is to provide “employment and economic development with social equity.”

A shirtless man stands in front of a variety of vegetables.
Poor monetary policy can lead to rising prices in Argentina.
AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko

Conflicting objectives can open central banks to politicization. In the U.S. the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment. These goals are often complementary, and economists have argued that low inflation is a prerequisite for sustainable high levels of employment.

But in times of overlapping high inflation and high unemployment, such as in the late 1970s or when the COVID-19 crisis was winding down in 2022, the Fed’s dual mandate has become active territory for political wrangling.

Since 2000, at least 23 countries have expanded the focus of their central banks beyond just inflation.

Limits on government lending

The first central banks were created to help secure finance for governments fighting wars. But today, limiting lending to governments is at the core of protecting price stability from unsustainable fiscal spending.

History is dotted with the consequences of not doing so. In the 1960s and 1970s, for example, central banks in Latin America printed money to support their governments’ spending goals. But it resulted in massive inflation while not securing growth or political stability.

Today, limits on lending are strongly associated with lower inflation in the developing world. And central banks with high levels of independence can reject a government’s financing requests or dictate the terms of loans.

Yet over the past two decades, almost 40 countries have made their central banks less able to limit central government funding. In the more extreme examples – such as in Belarus, Ecuador or even New Zealand – they have turned the central bank into a potential financier for the government.

Scapegoating central bankers

In recent years, governments have tried to influence central banks by pushing for lower interest rates, making statements criticizing bank policy or calling for meetings with central bank leadership.

At the same time, politicians have blamed the same central bankers for a number of perceived failings: not anticipating economic shocks such as the 2007-09 financial crisis; exceeding their authority with quantitative easing; or creating massive inequality or instability while trying to save the financial sector.

And since mid-2021, major central banks have struggled to keep inflation low, raising questions from populist and antidemocratic politicians about the merits of an arm’s-length relationship.

But chipping away at central bank independence, as Trump appears to be doing with his open criticism of the Fed chair and his removal of a member of the bank’s Board of Governors, is a historically sure way to high inflation.

This is an updated version of an article that was originally published on June 14, 2024.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump’s push to fire Fed governor threatens central bank independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation) – https://theconversation.com/trumps-push-to-fire-fed-governor-threatens-central-bank-independence-and-that-isnt-good-news-for-sound-economic-stewardship-or-battling-inflation-263970

Posted on

Trump’s attempted firing of Fed governor threatens central bank independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation)

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ana Carolina Garriga, Professor. Department of Government, University of Essex

The fate of Lisa Cook, who is fighting attempts by President Donald Trump to remove her from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, has huge implications for a keystone of good economic policy: central bank independence.

At the heart of her firing attempt – and other moves to undermine the Fed by the Trump administration – is a power struggle. Central banks, which are public institutions that manage a country’s currency and its monetary policy, have an extraordinary amount of power. By controlling the flow of money and credit in a country, they can affect economic growth, inflation, employment and financial stability.

These are powers that many politicians would like to control or at least manipulate. That’s because monetary policy can provide governments with economic boosts at key times, such as around elections or during periods of falling popularity.

The problem is that short-lived, politically motivated moves may be detrimental to the long-term economic well-being of a nation. They may, in other words, saddle the economy with problems further down the line.

That is why central banks across the globe tend to receive significant leeway to set interest rates independently and free from the electoral wishes of politicians.

In fact, monetary policymaking that is data-driven and technocratic, rather than politically motivated, has since the early 1990s been seen as the gold standard of governance of national finances and has largely achieved its main purpose of keeping inflation relatively low and stable.

But despite independence being seen to work, central banks over the past decade have come under increased pressure from politicians.

Trump is one recent example. In his first term as president, he criticized his own choice to head the U.S. Federal Reserve and demanded lower interest rates.

Attacks on the Fed have accelerated in Trump’s second administration. In April 2025, Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell in an online post accusing him of being “TOO LATE AND WRONG” on interest rate cuts, while suggesting that the central banker’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” Unable to force Powell out, Trump has now brought the power struggle to a head with his firing of Cook, nominally over allegations that the Fed governor falsified records in a mortgage application. Cook has said that the president does not have the grounds or authority to fire her.

As political economists, we are not surprised to see politicians try to exert influence on central banks. For one thing, central banks remain part of the government bureaucracy, and independence granted to them can always be reversed – either by changing laws or backtracking on established practices.

Moreover, the reason politicians may want to interfere in monetary policy is that low interest rates remain a potent, quick method to boost an economy. And while politicians know that there are costs to besieging an independent central bank – financial markets may react negatively or inflation may flare up – short-term control of a powerful policy tool can prove irresistible.

Legislating independence

If monetary policy is such a coveted policy tool, how have central banks held off politicians and stayed independent? And is this independence being eroded?

Broadly, central banks are protected by laws that offer long tenures to their leadership, allow them to focus policy primarily on inflation, and severely limit lending to the rest of the government.

Of course, such legislation cannot anticipate all future contingencies, which may open the door for political interference or for practices that break the law. And sometimes central bankers are unceremoniously fired.

However, laws do keep politicians in line. For example, even in authoritarian countries, laws protecting central banks from political interference have helped reduce inflation and restricted central bank lending to the government.

In our own research, we have detailed the ways that laws have insulated central banks from the rest of the government, but also the recent trend of eroding this legal independence.

Politicizing appointees

Around the world, appointments to central bank leadership are political – elected politicians select candidates based on career credentials, political affiliation and, importantly, their dislike or tolerance of inflation.

But lawmakers in different countries exercise different degrees of political control.

A 2025 study shows that the large majority of central bank leaders – about 70% – are appointed by the head of government alone or with the intervention of other members of the executive branch. This ensures that the preferences of the central bank are closer to the government’s, which can boost the central bank’s legitimacy in democratic countries, but at the risk of permeability to political influence.

Alternatively, appointments can involve the legislative power or even the central bank’s own board. In the U.S., while the president nominates members of the Federal Reserve Board, the Senate can and has rejected unconventional or incompetent candidates.

Moreover, even if appointments are political, many central bankers stay in office long after the people who appointed them have been voted out. By the end of 2023, the most common length of the governors’ appointment is five years, and in 41 countries the legal mandate was six years or longer. Powell is set to stay on as Fed chair until his term expires in 2026. The Fed chair position has traditionally been protected by law, as Powell himself acknowledged in November 2024: “We’re not removable except for cause. We serve very long terms, seemingly endless terms. So we’re protected into law. Congress could change that law, but I don’t think there’s any danger of that.”

In the 2000s, several countries shortened the tenure of their central banks’ governors to four or five years. Sometimes, this was part of broader restrictions in central bank independence, as was the case in Iceland in 2001, Ghana in 2002 and Romania in 2004.

The low inflation objective

As of 2023, all but six central banks globally had low inflation as their main goal. Yet many central banks are required by law to try to achieve additional and sometimes conflicting goals, such as financial stability, full employment or support for the government’s policies.

This is the case for 38 central banks that either have the explicit dual mandate of price stability and employment or more complex goals. In Argentina, for example, the central bank’s mandate is to provide “employment and economic development with social equity.”

A shirtless man stands in front of a variety of vegetables.
Poor monetary policy can lead to rising prices in Argentina.
AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko

Conflicting objectives can open central banks to politicization. In the U.S. the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment. These goals are often complementary, and economists have argued that low inflation is a prerequisite for sustainable high levels of employment.

But in times of overlapping high inflation and high unemployment, such as in the late 1970s or when the COVID-19 crisis was winding down in 2022, the Fed’s dual mandate has become active territory for political wrangling.

Since 2000, at least 23 countries have expanded the focus of their central banks beyond just inflation.

Limits on government lending

The first central banks were created to help secure finance for governments fighting wars. But today, limiting lending to governments is at the core of protecting price stability from unsustainable fiscal spending.

History is dotted with the consequences of not doing so. In the 1960s and 1970s, for example, central banks in Latin America printed money to support their governments’ spending goals. But it resulted in massive inflation while not securing growth or political stability.

Today, limits on lending are strongly associated with lower inflation in the developing world. And central banks with high levels of independence can reject a government’s financing requests or dictate the terms of loans.

Yet over the past two decades, almost 40 countries have made their central banks less able to limit central government funding. In the more extreme examples – such as in Belarus, Ecuador or even New Zealand – they have turned the central bank into a potential financier for the government.

Scapegoating central bankers

In recent years, governments have tried to influence central banks by pushing for lower interest rates, making statements criticizing bank policy or calling for meetings with central bank leadership.

At the same time, politicians have blamed the same central bankers for a number of perceived failings: not anticipating economic shocks such as the 2007-09 financial crisis; exceeding their authority with quantitative easing; or creating massive inequality or instability while trying to save the financial sector.

And since mid-2021, major central banks have struggled to keep inflation low, raising questions from populist and antidemocratic politicians about the merits of an arm’s-length relationship.

But chipping away at central bank independence, as Trump appears to be doing with his open criticism of the Fed chair and his removal of a member of the bank’s Board of Governors, is a historically sure way to high inflation.

This is an updated version of an article that was originally published on June 14, 2024.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump’s attempted firing of Fed governor threatens central bank independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation) – https://theconversation.com/trumps-attempted-firing-of-fed-governor-threatens-central-bank-independence-and-that-isnt-good-news-for-sound-economic-stewardship-or-battling-inflation-263970

Posted on

US and Israel push to end UN peacekeeping mandate in south Lebanon risks regional chaos

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vanessa Newby, Senior Lecturer, Politics & International Relations, Monash University

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) is seen by many as an essential peacekeeping buffer between Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah. But Israeli pressure, US doubts over Unifil’s cost-effectiveness and the fragile state of Lebanon’s politics means there is a risk that instead of being renewed on August 31 the mission could be ended. The stakes are high: an abrupt withdrawal could create a dangerous security vacuum along the Israeli-Lebanese border and this could have broader implications for stability in the Middle East.

The US is keen to reduce its financial commitments to UN peacekeeping, with Washington arguing that expensive and longstanding missions should be downsized or wound down to cut costs. This makes it more receptive to Israeli insistence that the mission has been ineffective in addressing the existential threat posed by Hezbollah.

But Unifil’s mandate has never been to directly disarm Hezbollah. Instead, the mission is tasked with creating and maintaining a space free of armed groups in southern Lebanon by supporting the Lebanese armed forces (LAF). Central to the Israeli narrative is the claim that Unifil failed to uncover Hezbollah’s tunnel network in south Lebanon. This criticism obscures the fact that Israeli intelligence also overlooked the same tunnels for more than a decade — despite the fact that they crossed into Israeli territory.

As part of the agreements it made after the war in 2024, Lebanon has made concrete attempts to confront the military dominance of Hezbollah in the region. The LAF has expanded its deployment in the south, dismantled Hezbollah fortifications, and begun consolidating weapons under state control.

In August 2025, the Lebanese cabinet instructed the LAF to devise a national plan aimed at ensuring a state monopoly on the use of armed force. This step has sparked fierce resistance from Hezbollah and its political allies, underscoring the risks involved in challenging the group’s armed status.

The process remains precarious. Deadly incidents, such as an explosion that killed six LAF troops removing weapons from a Hezbollah arms depot on August 9, highlight how volatile the disarmament effort is. Still, these steps mark the most serious attempt in years by Beirut to assert control over Hezbollah’s armed status. It’s a development that makes Unifil’s continued presence even more significant as a stabilising buffer while this process plays out.

Security Council wrangling

Despite these positive moves, wrangling continues at the UN headquarters in New York. The security council vote scheduled for Monday has been postponed, even though the mission’s mandate expires on August 31, adding urgency to the negotiations.

Fourteen of the 15 security council members are agreed on the need to renew Unifil’s mandate, with the US the only holdout. France, as the security council penholder for the Unifil mandate – the country which will write up the decision – has successively proposed a variety of options that might be palatable to the US, but divisions in Washington remain. Some officials, such as the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, acknowledge Unifil’s importance, but the US has yet to agree to vote for a mandate renewal that extends beyond a year.

A recent draft resolution proposed a strategic review by March 2026 to assess the conditions for Unifil’s withdrawal. This called for Unifil to pull out no later than August 31, 2026. But currently the US is unwilling to link any withdrawal timeline to conditions on the ground and is insisting on a firm endpoint.

Israel’s political manoeuvring

Israel’s posture toward Unifil reflects a longstanding strategy of delegitimising the mission. During the 2024 war, the Israel Defense Forces obstructed peacekeepers’ attempts to rescue civilians and even targeted Unifil positions. Despite the November 27 ceasefire, Israel continues to occupy five positions inside Lebanese territory and is reinforcing them in direct violation of the agreement.

Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, recently commended the Lebanese government’s steps to disarm Hezbollah. He also promised that Israel would reciprocate by gradually reducing its presence in south Lebanon. It’s a statement that appears conciliatory – yet, by praising Lebanese efforts, Netanyahu risks casting the Lebanese government and LAF as collaborators, which would inflame political tensions inside Lebanon.

At the same time, the gesture functions as a diplomatic sleight of hand, giving Washington cover in the security council debates. It gives an impression that Israel is open to conciliation and compromise, while in reality reinforcing Israel’s determination for Unifil’s mission to be curtailed.

Israel’s persistent efforts to weaken Unifil are part of its current doctrine of privileging military solutions over diplomacy and political negotiation in south Lebanon. By predominantly using force against Hezbollah, Israel has generated retaliation. These flare-ups are then used as evidence by Israel that it is under constant threat and must act in self-defence. In this way, military action produces the very instability that is then invoked to justify further escalation. It’s a cycle of chaos that sidelines diplomacy, privileges military action and perpetuates conflict.

Why Unifil still matters

Amid these political manoeuvres, one core issue remains: Unifil remains crucial to regional stability. Dismantling the peacekeeping force now would strip away one of the last stabilising buffers in an increasingly fragile region. The mission provides an international spotlight on south Lebanon. Its presence, while imperfect, has prevented numerous flare-ups from spiralling into war.

Lebanon’s army remains weak. So a sudden Unifil withdrawal would create multiple risks – including the possibility of a surge in Hezbollah activity in the south. This increases the prospect of another direct conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, and another Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.

The Conversation

Chiara Ruffa receives funding from the Swedish Research Council, the Fulbright Commission and the European Commission

Vanessa Newby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. US and Israel push to end UN peacekeeping mandate in south Lebanon risks regional chaos – https://theconversation.com/us-and-israel-push-to-end-un-peacekeeping-mandate-in-south-lebanon-risks-regional-chaos-263927

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Droughts don’t just dry up water — they drain livelihoods and weaken local economies

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By S. Mehmet Ozsoy, Assistant Professor of Finance, Concordia University

Unlike hurricanes and floods, which arrive suddenly and tend to dominate headlines with dramatic images of wrecked homes and submerged towns, droughts are often overlooked by media, governments and markets because they unfold more slowly.

Their gradual toll on fields, reservoirs and rural communities tends to be overshadowed by flashier disasters, but their consequences are no less severe.

A drought is a shortage of precipitation — typically lasting a season or longer — that results in insufficient water availability for ecosystems, agriculture and human use.

As climate change accelerates, droughts are projected to become more frequent and intense, especially in dry regions. This makes it increasingly urgent to understand their complex impact on agriculture, water supplies and regional economies.

Droughts don’t just hurt farmers

Droughts barely register in financial markets, despite their widespread consequences. Yet research shows that droughts can slash food industry profits by increasing farming costs, disrupting supply chains and tightening profit margins.

Droughts hit utilities and agriculture hardest. Shrinking water supplies wilt crops and strain water providers. But the impact extends far beyond them: low river levels can stall hydropower production, pushing up electricity costs and affecting water-heavy industries like textiles and chemicals.

Shallow waterways can also delay or block barges carrying goods, which hikes shipping costs. These disruptions ripple outward, affecting everyone from factory workers to shoppers.

Yet markets often ignore these risks until damage becomes impossible to overlook. With climate change poised to make droughts more frequent and severe, this blind spot could pose growing risks to investors and the stability of food supply chains.

Banks reveal the economic toll of droughts

Climate shocks like droughts hit local economies hardest — especially small, private businesses. While researchers can access financial data for public companies, the finances of private firms are far more opaque, making it difficult to understand the local impact of droughts.

To address this gap, we studied how prolonged droughts affect the financial stability and loan performance of regional banks across the United States. The stability, or fragility, of these banks can sway the economy, as seen in the 2008-09 crisis.



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The window of opportunity to address increasing drought and expanding drylands is vanishing

By examining bank balance sheets, we traced the broader economic ripples of droughts and found that a two-year drought can have the same economic impact on a region as a one-percentage point increase in the unemployment rate.

Communities suffer when banks do

Smaller banks are closely tied to their communities and often lend locally — often within just five miles — making them especially vulnerable when droughts strike. As small firms struggle to repay loans in the wake of such disasters, banks see an increase in missed payments.

Our data shows that droughts disrupt entire communities as job losses and tight budgets create a domino effect throughout local economies.

Banks in drought-hit areas see lower profits and rising risks. Unpaid loans, or “non-performing loans,” spike not just for farmers but for homeowners, businesses and commercial properties.

When farm workers lose income from unplanted or failed crops, they may fall behind on mortgage payments, even if farms themselves are insured.

Missed mortgage payments signal household distress, while defaulted business loans hit farms, food producers and service providers like caterers as customer demand dries up. Reduced wages also means less spending at local restaurants, equipment stores and other small businesses.

Unlike hurricanes or floods — which are designated disasters by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency — droughts receive no such status.

Once a flood or hurricane is declared a federal disaster, U.S. federal agencies provide financial assistance to eligible households and businesses. FEMA offers several programs, including financial assistance for temporary housing, home repairs and the replacement of personal property.

FEMA also supports the Disaster Unemployment Assistance and the Dislocated Worker Grant program. In addition, the Small Business Administration provides long-term, low-interest loans to eligible businesses and some homeowners, while the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) offers administrative disaster-related tax relief.

Because droughts don’t have access to the same resources, banks and local economies are left to cope on their own instead of receiving emergency aid from FEMA. As a result, our research found that banks are more likely to close branches in drought-hit areas. These closures can make recovery even harder for local businesses left reeling from droughts as they lose vital loan access.

Diversification offers some protection

From banks reeling with unpaid loans to families struggling to make ends meet, the fallout from droughts is real and far-reaching. Droughts don’t just dry up water — they drain livelihoods and destabilize economies.

Larger banks and firms with operations across multiple states are better able to weather climate shocks. This diversification acts as a form of self-insurance, helping them absorb losses in one region while staying afloat in others.

This might explain why stock markets often ignore the risks posed by droughts. Large players are less exposed to local downturns. But smaller, more vulnerable businesses that are reliant on local stability don’t have the same buffer.

As these crises grow more common, markets, regulators and policymakers need to rethink how droughts are measured and mitigated before entire communities are left behind.

Regulators have begun to take some notice. Climate risks are now formally recognized as threats to financial stability by the Financial Stability Board, an international body that monitors the global financial system.

Still, recognition is only the first step. Without concrete action, droughts will continue to destabilize communities.

The Conversation

Erkan Yonder receives funding from Fonds de recherche du Québec (FRQ).

S. Mehmet Ozsoy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Droughts don’t just dry up water — they drain livelihoods and weaken local economies – https://theconversation.com/droughts-dont-just-dry-up-water-they-drain-livelihoods-and-weaken-local-economies-261140