Americans want heat pumps – but high electricity prices may get in the way

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Roxana Shafiee, Environmental Fellow, Center for the Environment, Harvard University; Harvard Kennedy School

Workers install an air-source heat pump at a home in Charlotte, Vt. Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

Heat pumps can reduce carbon emissions associated with heating buildings, and many states have set aggressive targets to increase their use in the coming decades. But while heat pumps are often cheaper choices for new buildings, getting homeowners to install them in existing homes isn’t so easy.

Current energy prices, including the rising cost of electricity, mean that homeowners may experience higher heating bills by replacing their current heating systems with heat pumps – at least in some regions of the country.

Heat pumps, which use electricity to move heat from the outside in, are used in only 14% of U.S. households. They are common primarily in warm southern states such as Florida where winter heating needs are relatively low. In the Northeast, where winters are colder and longer, only about 5% of households use a heat pump.

In our new study, my co-author Dan Schrag and I examined how heat pump adoption would change annual heating bills for the average-size household in each county across the U.S. We wanted to understand where heat pumps may already be cost-effective and where other factors may be preventing households from making the switch.

Wide variation in home heating

Across the U.S., people heat their homes with a range of fuels, mainly because of differences in climate, pricing and infrastructure. In colder regions – northern states and states across the Rocky Mountains – most people use natural gas or propane to provide reliable winter heating. In California, most households also use natural gas for heating.

In warmer, southern states, including Florida and Texas, where electricity prices are cheaper, most households use electricity for heating – either in electric furnaces, baseboard resistance heating or to run heat pumps. In the Pacific northwest, where electricity prices are low due to abundant hydropower, electricity is also a dominant heating fuel.

The type of community also affects homes’ fuel choices. Homes in cities are more likely to use natural gas relative to rural areas, where natural gas distribution networks are not as well developed. In rural areas, homes are more likely to use heating oil and propane, which can be stored on property in tanks. Oil is also more commonly used in the Northeast, where properties are older – particularly in New England, where a third of households still rely on oil for heating.

Why heat pumps?

Instead of generating heat by burning fuels such as natural gas that directly emit carbon, heat pumps use electricity to move heat from one place to another. Air-source heat pumps extract the heat of outside air, and ground-source heat pumps, sometimes called geothermal heat pumps, extract heat stored in the ground.

Heat pump efficiency depends on the local climate: A heat pump operated in Florida will provide more heat per unit of electricity used than one in colder northern states such as Minnesota or Massachusetts.

But they are highly efficient: An air-source heat pump can reduce household heating energy use by roughly 30% to 50% relative to existing fossil-based systems and up to 75% relative to inefficient electric systems such as baseboard heaters.

Heat pumps can also reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, although that depends on how their electricity is generated – whether from fossil fuels or cleaner energy, such as wind and solar.

Heat pumps can lower heating bills

We found that for households currently using oil, propane or non-heat pump forms of electric heating – such as electric furnaces or baseboard resistive heaters – installing a heat pump would reduce heating bills across all parts of the country.

The amount a household can save on energy costs with a heat pump depends on region and heating type, averaging between $200 and $500 a year for the average-size household currently using propane or oil.

However, savings can be significantly greater: We found the greatest opportunity for savings in households using inefficient forms of electric heating in northern regions. High electricity prices in the Northeast, for example, mean that heat pumps can save consumers up to $3,000 a year over what they would pay to heat with an electric furnace or to use baseboard heating.

A challenge in converting homes using natural gas

Unfortunately for the households that use natural gas in colder, northern regions – making up around half of the country’s annual heating needs – installing a heat pump could raise their annual heating bills. Our analysis shows that bills could increase by as much as $1,200 per year in northern regions, where electricity costs are as much as five times greater than natural gas per kilowatt-hour.

Even households that install ground-source heat pumps, the most efficient type of heat pump, would still see bill increases in regions with the highest electricity prices relative to natural gas.

Installation costs

In parts of the country where households would see their energy costs drop after installing a heat pump, the savings would eventually offset the upfront costs. But those costs can be significant and discourage people from buying.

On average, it costs $17,000 to install an air-source heat pump and typically at least $30,000 to install a ground-source heat pump.

Some homes may also need upgrades to their electrical systems, which can increase the total installation price even more, by tens of thousands of dollars in some cases, if costly service upgrades are required.

In places where air conditioning is typical, homes may be able to offset some costs by using heat pumps to replace their air conditioning units as well as their heating systems. For instance, a new program in California aims to encourage homeowners who are installing central air conditioning or replacing broken AC systems to get energy-efficient heat pumps that provide both heating and cooling.

Rising costs of electricity

A main finding of our analysis was that the cost of electricity is key to encouraging people to install heat pumps.

Electricity prices have risen sharply across the U.S. in recent years, driven by factors such as extreme weather, aging infrastructure and increasing demand for electric power. New data center demand has added further pressure and raised questions about who bears these costs.

Heat pump installations will also increase electricity demand on the grid: The full electrification of home heating across the country would increase peak electricity demand by about 70%. But heat pumps – when used in concert with other technologies such as hot-water storage – can provide opportunities for grid balancing and be paired with discounted or time-of-use rate structures to reduce overall operating costs. In some states, regulators have ordered utilities to discount electricity costs for homes that use heat pumps.

But ultimately, encouraging households to embrace heat pumps and broader economy-wide electrification, including electric vehicles, will require more than just technological fixes and a lot more electricity – it will require lower power prices.

The Conversation

Roxana Shafiee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Americans want heat pumps – but high electricity prices may get in the way – https://theconversation.com/americans-want-heat-pumps-but-high-electricity-prices-may-get-in-the-way-273981

Even when people’s rights are ignored, understanding the law can keep protesters engaged

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Heidi Reynolds-Stenson, Associate Professor of Sociology, Criminology and Anthropology, Colorado State University Pueblo

A group of anti-Immigration and Customs Enforcement protesters march in downtown Minneapolis on Jan. 27, 2026. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

There’s been a rise of know-your-rights training sessions in response to the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement tactics. This has included local public officials and organizations sharing online information over the past few months about what to do if Immigration and Customs Enforcement or other federal agents knock on your door, among other scenarios that involve immigration law enforcement.

Knowledge is power, the adage goes. But learning the letter of the law has its limits, legal rights experts have noted, if law enforcement officers do not follow the law. The Associated Press reported on Jan. 21, 2026, that ICE distributed an internal memo authorizing ICE officers to forcibly enter someone’s private home with only an administrative warrant – not one signed by a judge, as the Fourth Amendment requires.

Amy Lieberman, education editor for The Conversation U.S., spoke with Heidi Reynolds-Stenson, a scholar of social movements and protest policing, to understand the role education can play in Minnesota’s ongoing anti-ICE protests and how legal training’s limits are becoming clear.

People sit on a bench near a sign in Spanish that says 'Conozca sus derechos'
A ‘know your rights’ sign in Spanish is posted outside of a cafe in Chicago in November 2025.
Erin Hooley/Associated Press

What role is education playing in fueling Minnesota’s anti-ICE protests?

I think it is a really unique moment. There is discussion in the news nationwide about legal observing and know-your-rights training sessions. This kind of legal support and education has been part of social movements for a long time, but have never, perhaps, been in the spotlight on the level that they are right now after the January killings of ICE observers Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti.

A coordinated way of offering legal support to protesters grew out of 1960s and ‘70s civil rights protests. Legal support for protesters became even more organized during the student-led anti-Vietnam War movement around this same time. The first time there was an organized, mass legal defense of protesters was for the Stop the Draft Week in 1967, when a group of lawyers and law students began working in coordination with activists.

Since then, community organizers, lawyers, law students and others have developed strategies for offering legal support to protesters. That includes legal observers. Legal observers can be lawyers, law students or others trained not to protest, but to independently observe, take notes on and photograph or video incidents at protests, like law enforcement arresting or assaulting someone.

We see, over time, that the way people organize and offer legal support to protesters has become more and more sophisticated. More and more people have knowledge about their civic and legal rights. Other forms of legal support, such as jail and court solidarity, in which individual people who are arrested make collective decisions to support one another, have become more common.

Now, people are also learning about more than their First Amendment rights – they are learning about the rights of immigrants and of anyone who is interacting with ICE and Border Patrol officers. That intensifies the complexity of what people need to know.

Altogether, there is a complex system of legal support in place that has been shown to be very effective at preventing activists from disengaging after experiences of state repression.

What does your own research show regarding how education can shape protests?

In my own research, when activists had experiences of repression – when they were arrested at protests, as has happened in Minneapolis, or experienced police violence, like being sprayed with chemical irritants – legal education was a major determining factor on whether they continued to be involved in the protest movement.

Another deciding issue was whether or not protesters were being helped by pro bono lawyers or there were legal observers present to make protesters feel more confident going into a certain situation.

As people become more educated about their rights and more prepared for the potential risks of protesting, that can make them more confident about going to a protest in the first place and more likely to continue in that work.

We know that, in reality, the rights people learn about are not always respected, at protests or in other situations. So, it is one thing to say that you have a right to do something, like to protest, or not let ICE or Border Patrol agents into your home without a judicial warrant.

It is another thing in practice, especially in the current moment that we are in, in which immigration enforcement officers have increasingly shown disregard for people’s rights. But it is still important for people to be aware that those rights exist.

What role do legal observers play in influencing protest movements?

Legal observers can play a critical role in collecting independent, neutral information about law enforcement actions at protests that can be used if there is a civil suit or a criminal case coming out of a protest.

Legal observing can also, in theory, deter officers who are policing protests, since they know they are being watched and data is being collected on their actions, including potential rights violations.

Three people, as seen from behind, stand and hold hands in front of a large memorial on a street that has flowers.
People on Jan. 28, 2026, gather at a makeshift memorial where Alex Pretti was shot dead by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis.
Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

How can education serve as a means of self-defense at protests?

Education is the most powerful weapon for people involved in protest movements – that is, knowledge and understanding of what their rights are as well as the risks. Equally important is collecting bail fund money before someone is actually arrested, having a network of people ready to do the work after a protest to defend arrested activists, and holding law enforcement officers accountable for violating people’s rights. Protesters or observers can then know that if they are arrested or injured by law enforcement officers, that people are already there ready to help them.

In my view, the level of disrespect that federal immigration officers are currently showing to people exercising their rights to protest and to film and otherwise monitor public officials is unprecedented. But it has always been the case that just because a legal right exists, it does not mean that it is followed by law enforcement or the government more broadly. Then, and now, it has always been organized groups of individuals who make those rights real through exercising them and working to hold those accountable who violate them.

The Conversation

Heidi Reynolds-Stenson receives funding from the William T. Grant Foundation.

ref. Even when people’s rights are ignored, understanding the law can keep protesters engaged – https://theconversation.com/even-when-peoples-rights-are-ignored-understanding-the-law-can-keep-protesters-engaged-274489

America is falling behind in the global EV race – that’s going to cost the US auto industry

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Hengrui Liu, Postdoctoral Scholar in Economics and Public Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

Trucks and SUVs dominate U.S. auto sales and set the tone for the Detroit Auto Show in January 2026, while overseas EV sales are booming. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

At the 2026 Detroit Auto Show, the spotlight quietly shifted. Electric vehicles, once framed as the inevitable future of the industry, were no longer the centerpiece. Instead, automakers emphasized hybrids, updated gasoline models and incremental efficiency improvements.

The show, held in January, reflected an industry recalibration happening in real time: Ford and General Motors had recently announced US$19.5 billion and $6 billion in EV-related write-downs, respectively, reflecting the losses they expect as they unwind or delay parts of their electric vehicle plans.

The message from Detroit was unmistakable: The United States is pulling back from a transition that much of the world is accelerating.

Highlights from the Detroit Auto Show, starting with V-8 trucks, by the Detroit Free Press’ auto writer.

That retreat carries consequences far beyond showroom floors.

In China, Europe and a growing number of emerging markets, including Vietnam and Indonesia, electric vehicles now make up a higher share of new passenger vehicle sales than in the United States.

That means the U.S. pullback on EV production is not simply a climate problem – gasoline-powered vehicles are a major contributor to climate change – it is also an industrial competitiveness problem, with direct implications for the future of U.S. automakers, suppliers and autoworkers. Slower EV production and slower adoption in the U.S. can keep prices higher, delay improvements in batteries and software, and increase the risk that the next generation of automotive value creation will happen elsewhere.

Where EVs are taking over

In 2025, global EV registrations rose 20% to 20.7 million. Analysts with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported that China reached 12.9 million EV registrations, up 17% from the previous year; Europe recorded 4.3 million, up 33%; and the rest of the world added 1.7 million, up 48%.

By contrast, U.S. EV sales growth was essentially flat in 2025, at about 1%. U.S. automaker Tesla experienced declines in both scale and profitability – its vehicle deliveries fell 9% compared to 2024, the company’s net profit was down 46%, and CEO Elon Musk said it would put more of its focus on artificial intelligence and robotics.

Market share tells a similar story and also challenges the assumption that vehicle electrification would take time to expand from wealthy countries to emerging markets.

In 39 countries, EVs now exceed 10% of new car sales, including in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, which reached 38%, 21% and 15%, respectively, in 2025, energy analysts at Ember report.

In the U.S., EVs accounted for less than 10% of new vehicle sales, by Ember’s estimates.

U.S. President Donald Trump came back into office in 2025 promising to end policies that supported EV production and sales and boost fossil fuels. But while the U.S. was curtailing federal consumer incentives, governments elsewhere largely continued a transition to electric vehicles.

Europe softened its goal for all vehicles to have zero emissions by 2035 at the urging of automakers, but its new target is still a 90% cut in automobiles’ carbon dioxide emissions by 2035.

Germany launched a program offering subsidies worth 1,500 to 6,000 euros per electric vehicle, aimed at small- and medium-income households.

In developing economies, EV policy has largely been sustained through industrial policies. In Brazil, the MOVER program offers tax credits explicitly linked to domestic EV production, research and development, and efficiency targets. South Africa is introducing a 150% investment allowance for EV and battery manufacturing, giving them a tax break starting in March 2026. Thailand has implemented subsidies and reduced excise tax tied to mandatory local production and export commitments.

Shoppers in China check out cars with large prices on the top.
Low prices from Chinese automakers such as BYD helped the EV industry take off, not just in China but globally. A car priced at 99,800 yuan is just over US$14,000. These were at an auto show in Yantai, in eastern China, in April 2025.
Stringer/AFP via Getty Images

In China, the EV industry has entered a phase of regulatory maturity. After a decade of subsidies and state-led investment that helped domestic firms undercut global competitors, the government’s focus is no longer on explosive growth at home.

With their domestic market saturated and competition fierce, Chinese automakers are pushing aggressively into global markets. Beijing has reinforced this shift by ending its full tax exemption for EV purchases and replacing it with a tapered 5% tax on EV buyers.

Consequences for US automakers

EV manufacturing is governed by steep learning curves and scale economies, meaning the more vehicles a company builds, the better it gets at making them faster and cheaper. Low domestic production and sales can mean higher costs for parts and weaker bargaining power for automakers in global supply chains.

The competitive landscape is already changing. In 2025, China exported 2.65 million EVs, doubling its 2024 exports, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. And BYD surpassed Tesla as the world’s largest EV maker in 2025.

The U.S. risks becoming a follower in the industry it once defined.

Some people argue that American consumers simply prefer trucks and hybrids. Others point to Chinese subsidies and overcapacity as distortions that justify U.S. industry caution. These concerns deserve consideration, but they do not outweigh the fundamental fact that, globally, the EV share of auto sales continues to rise.

What can the US do?

For U.S. automakers and workers to compete in this market, the government, in our view, will have to stop treating EVs as an ideological matter and start governing it like an industrial transition.

That starts with restoring regulatory credibility, something that seems unlikely right now as the Trump administration moves to roll back vehicle emissions standards. Performance standards are the quiet engine of industrial investment. When standards are predictable and enforced, manufacturers can plan, suppliers can invest in new businesses, and workers can train for reliable demand.

Governments at state and local levels and industry can also take important steps.

Focus on affordability and equity: The federal clean-vehicle tax credit that effectively gave EV buyers a discount expired in September 2025. An alternative is targeted, point-of-sale support for lower- and middle-income buyers. By moving away from blanket credits in favor of targeted incentives – a model already used in California and Pennsylvania – governments can ensure public funds are directed toward people who are currently priced out of the EV market. Additionally, interest-rate buydowns that allow buyers to reduce their loan payments and “green loan” programs can help, typically funded through state and local governments, utility companies or federal grants.

Keep building out the charging network: A federal judge ruled on Jan. 23, 2026, that the Trump administration violated the law when it suspended a $5 billion program for expanding the nation’s EV charger network. That expansion effort can be improved by shifting the focus from the number of ports installed to the number of working chargers, as California did in 2025. Enforcing reliability and clearing bottlenecks, such as electricity connections and payment systems, could help boost the number of functioning sites.

Use fleet procurement as a stabilizer for U.S. sales: When states, cities and companies provide a predictable volume of vehicle purchases, that helps manufacturers plan future investments. For example, Amazon’s 2019 order of 100,000 Rivian electric delivery vehicles to be delivered over the following decade gave the startup automaker the boost it needed.

Treat workforce transition as core infrastructure: This means giving workers skills they can carry from job to job, helping suppliers retool instead of shutting down, and coordinating training with employers’ needs. Done right, these investments turn economic change into a source of stable jobs and broad public support. Done poorly, they risk a political backlash.

The scene at the Detroit Auto Show should be a warning, not a verdict. The global auto industry is accelerating its EV transition. The question for the United States is whether it will shape that future – and ensure the technologies and jobs of the next automotive era are in the U.S. – or import it.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. America is falling behind in the global EV race – that’s going to cost the US auto industry – https://theconversation.com/america-is-falling-behind-in-the-global-ev-race-thats-going-to-cost-the-us-auto-industry-274422

Rescheduling marijuana would be a big tax break for legal cannabis businesses – and a quiet form of deregulation

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Sloan Speck, Associate Professor of Law, University of Colorado Boulder

In December 2025, the Trump administration accelerated the process of reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act – a shift that would reduce restrictions and penalties associated with the drug.

Under the move, medical and recreational marijuana would still remain illegal at the federal level. At the state level, medical use is currently legal in 40 states and the District of Columbia, and recreational use is permitted in 24 states and Washington, D.C. While the administration touted the medical research benefits of rescheduling, the medical and recreational marijuana industry lauded it for an entirely different reason: income tax savings.

Indeed, one of rescheduling’s most significant – and most immediate – effects would be tax relief for all legal marijuana businesses in the states that host them.

But business taxes do more than raise revenue – they also create incentives that shape how companies organize and operate. For legal marijuana businesses – both medical and recreational dispensaries alike – rescheduling marijuana would relax these implicit restrictions, serving as a quiet form of deregulation that removes tax pressures that currently shape the industry’s financing, structure and compliance. From this perspective, rescheduling would cut taxes but also remove one of the federal government’s levers over an industry principally regulated by the states.

I study how tax rules shape what businesses do and the social effects of changing those rules. In my view, the tax implications of rescheduling marijuana alone are likely to have consequences that go far beyond the tax bill that businesses pay.

Why marijuana businesses are taxed differently

Under federal law, state-legal marijuana businesses face unique tax burdens.

Most businesses can deduct, or write off, ordinary and necessary expenses. For example, businesses generally can subtract the costs of rent and utilities from the income they earn. But that’s not the case for businesses that deal in Schedule I and II controlled substances, including marijuana.

In effect, legal marijuana businesses pay federal income tax on their gross income rather than their net income like other companies.

Imagine a business with US$100,000 of income before expenses and $80,000 of otherwise deductible expenses. Ordinarily, the business would pay $4,200 in tax on $20,000 of net income, assuming a 21% tax rate. The business’s cash profits would be $15,800 for the year – a healthy net profit margin.

If this hypothetical business legally sold marijuana, Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code would deny any income tax deductions for the business’s $80,000 in expenses. This rule applies even though the business’s expenses are real costs, and even though the business is legal under state law. In this scenario, the business would owe $21,000 in tax on $100,000 of gross income. This would put the business in the red for the year, with a negative cash flow of $1,000 and a negative net profit margin.

A man in a pink hat walks past a glass-front building.
A cannabis store in New York City.
Zamek/VIEWpress/Corbis via Getty Images

For many legal marijuana businesses, making the math work isn’t a hypothetical challenge. Indeed, some enterprises have reported real-world effective tax rates as high as 80%more than twice the top statutory rate for individuals.

This state of affairs traces to two court decisions handed down more than five decades apart. In 1927, the Supreme Court held that income from illegal activities remained subject to tax – a decision later leveraged in mob boss Al Capone’s 1931 conviction on criminal tax evasion charges. Then, in 1981, the U.S. Tax Court affirmed that illegal activities were taxable on their net income after deductions, like legal businesses. Lawmakers objected, and Congress enacted Section 280E the following year in response.

Essentially, the move gave drug traffickers a Hobson’s choice: face civil or criminal penalties for failing to properly report their income, or pay punishingly high effective tax rates. Just as Treasury Department enforcers used tax law to combat organized crime during Prohibition, tax law’s dual disincentives expressly discouraged illicit drug sales.

Because Section 280E applies only to Schedule I and II substances, rescheduling to Schedule III would tax legal marijuana businesses like other businesses. According to advocates, this would better align federal tax law with widespread state-level legalization of marijuana. In effect, rescheduling could equate to a tax break of around $2.3 billion dollars for the marijuana industry, according to one estimate.

How the tax code quietly regulates marijuana

Despite these high effective tax rates, the state-legal marijuana industry has more than tripled in revenue over the past decade and supports more than 400,000 jobs. Tax law, however, has shaped how this industry operates.

In this way, tax law serves as a form of quiet regulation – not directly, by setting licensing standards or policing potency, but indirectly. If marijuana were rescheduled, the federal government would give up this mechanism for indirect regulation.

As it currently stands, Section 280E has three important regulatory effects:

First, Section 280E limits businesses’ financing options. Like other enterprises, legal marijuana businesses need capital to grow. By constraining after-tax profits and cash flow, the status quo makes it harder for these marijuana businesses to finance growth internally using their own money from operations, known as “retained earnings.” This tax-induced capital scarcity may help explain mature legal marijuana industries’ relatively low rates of year-over-year growth. After taxes, there’s simply very little cash to reinvest.

This constraint pushes legal marijuana businesses to finance growth through external – and often unconventional – funding sources. Because marijuana businesses remain illegal under federal law, commercial banks and public capital markets may treat otherwise legal businesses as off-limits or high-risk. These businesses often turn to private capital for loans, specialized leasing arrangements and equity investments. Given the federal restrictions on marijuana, private investors tend to scrutinize these transactions closely, often insisting on protective covenants and operational restrictions.

Second, Section 280E encourages legal marijuana businesses to isolate activities that “don’t touch the plant” from marijuana production and sales. If the nonmarijuana activities are truly separate – legally, spatially and operationally – they may be able to claim business expense deductions that direct marijuana-related activities cannot.

Legal marijuana businesses have implemented these separate structures for activities from back-office support and real estate management to licensing for branding and merchandise. In addition to affecting tax burdens, these structures require ongoing operational oversight by outside parties – lawyers, accountants and other providers – and enforce the siloing of marijuana-touching activities away from other activities.

Finally, Section 280E raises the stakes of accurately accounting for the marijuana sold by these businesses. Courts have affirmed that legal marijuana businesses can reduce their gross income by the “cost of goods sold” – the direct production and acquisition costs of inventory. Even under Section 280E, these businesses can subtract the costs to grow, process and package marijuana from their sales revenue. As a result, these businesses meticulously monitor direct production costs throughout their supply chains.

This supply chain management offers another pathway for indirect regulation. Many state regulatory regimes already require inventory tracking. But Section 280E adds a financial reward for rigorous documentation, controls and auditing. Although some of this tax compliance work is mere paper-shuffling, public policy may favor multiple forms of regulation by multiple stakeholders – a diversity of oversight for an industry where lapses or inconsistencies can have serious social costs.

Federal tax rules for state-legal marijuana businesses operate as a form of indirect, or quiet, regulation: a national overlay that complements – and amplifies – state regulatory regimes. Rescheduling would remove this federal overlay by taking marijuana out of Section 280E’s reach.

From this perspective, the debate over rescheduling is about more than just tax normalization versus public health risks. Rescheduling raises bigger questions of institutional design: whether the federal government should yield one of its most practical points of leverage over the legal marijuana industry – and, if so, whether another regulatory mechanism should replace it.

The Conversation

Sloan Speck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Rescheduling marijuana would be a big tax break for legal cannabis businesses – and a quiet form of deregulation – https://theconversation.com/rescheduling-marijuana-would-be-a-big-tax-break-for-legal-cannabis-businesses-and-a-quiet-form-of-deregulation-274022

A growing nursing shortage is made worse by nurses’ daily challenges of patients and their families rolling their eyes, yelling and striking

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Carolyn Dickens, Nurse practitioner and Associate Dean, University of Illinois Chicago

A 2024 report found that 4 out of 5 nurses experienced at least one episode of such behaviors in the previous year. Ivan-balvan/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Imagine being a dentist, and your clients roll their eyes at you, comment that you don’t know what you’re doing – or even spit at you.

Unimaginable, right? But that’s what nurses experience when patients or their families do the eye roll or hit, bite or spit at them. What’s more, a bedside nurse may repeatedly endure bad behavior from a patient or their loved ones for a shift of eight to 12 hours.

Workplace violence is frequently underreported, in part because many nurses see it as being part of their job.

Nurses experience violence and incivility due to a combination of factors, such as working in high-risk clinical environments like the emergency department, or dealing with patient-related challenges such as altered mental status. As a result, nursing is the health profession most likely to experience workplace violence, incivility or threat of violence. This includes physical violence, harassment, intimidation or other types of disruptive behavior.

A 2024 report found that more than 80% of registered nurses said they had experienced at least one instance of workplace violence in the previous year; 68% said they were verbally threatened. The vast majority of the workplace violence stemmed from patients or family members of the patient.

Workplace violence and harassment are major contributors to a growing shortfall in the nursing workforce.

An exodus from nursing

As a nurse practitioner, I work closely with nurses and interact with patients and their families on a regular basis. A nurse practitioner – which is a registered nurse but with advanced training and a wider scope of treatment – typically doesn’t have as much direct interaction with patients and their families due to the difference in their job responsibilities compared with nurses.

However, I also experience incivility from patients and families when I can’t give them the answers they expect to hear, or when I’m late because the time I spent with the previous patient took longer than expected.

I recognize that much of their anger and impoliteness stems from fear and frustration. I also understand the difficulty in dealing with a health care system that’s bureaucratic and under-resourced. But my understanding why they feel this way does not make the behavior OK.

Workplace violence directed toward nurses has been studied for well over a decade. But the widespread prevalence of incivility remains poorly understood, in part because nurses are reluctant to report it. A 2022 survey of nurses across all care settings found that 60% had experienced bulling and incivility and nearly a third had experienced an incident of violence. Nearly half reported that they planned on or were considering leaving patient care in the next six months. And a significant number said that instituting a non-bullying program or no-tolerance policy toward violence would greatly improve their work satisfaction.

The feeling that they aren’t supported is another reason why nurses are increasingly likely to leave the profession, with 31% stating in the same survey that it would help their work satisfaction if their organization would listen to them.

This is unsustainable for a number of reasons, one being the growing shortage of nurses in the U.S.. The shortfall has gotten worse since the COVID-19 pandemic, with more and more nurses leaving due to burnout.

More nurses are needed to care for the aging population in the U.S., but fewer nurses are replacing the retiring ones. Over the next decade, the U.S. is projected a shortage of more than 63,000 registered nurses to care for its aging population.

A senior man talks with a frustrated-looking health care provider in a hallway.
A lack of transparency around waiting room times and doctors’ schedules often leads to negative interactions between family members and providers.
FG Trade/E+ via Getty Images

Starting from the ground up

The idealized concept of the “good nurse” is that of an unfailingly polite caregiver, always accommodating and emotionally composed. This makes it difficult for nurses to set boundaries or object to rudeness.

No one-size-fits-all solution will address the incivility problem, although health care systems have tried. Some hospitals, for example, post signs in patient rooms and elevators with messages like: “This is a place of health and healing – please respect everyone.” And many health care organizations have behavioral emergency response teams – typically social workers and security personnel – to intervene when tensions escalate. Although such response teams are considered best practice, few hospitals and other health care organizations have them.

Other organizational efforts, such as resilience training and wellness lectures, are well-intended and in good faith, but they also reinforce the harmful notion that incivility is inevitable and must be endured, not addressed. Worse, they give the appearance that health care organizations are taking action. Instead, they place the burden of coping squarely on nurses, who are often unable to attend the lectures due to time constraints.

A way forward

There are some actions that health organizations can take to address the incivility directed toward nurses from families. For example, setting realistic expectations for patients and their families would decrease the frustration and change this destructive dynamic. Transparency is critical. For instance, if emergency room waiting areas have a screen showing the wait time – even if it’s 12 hours – it would cut down on a great deal of anxiety for patients and their families that can escalate into anger, disrespect and violence.

And when patients must spend the night in the hospital, it would help for families to be told what time the health care provider makes their rounds so that loved ones are not needlessly waiting around for hours.

Families also deserve to know if the hospital is understaffed, with perhaps only one nurse managing multiple patients. This could help loved ones be more understanding of a slower response to a call light.

These types of interventions could be delivered through educational videos with QR codes and placed in each patient room.

The nursing profession has a conflicting identity, and it’s one where some patients translate a nurse’s compassion and caring into a signal to disregard basic human boundaries. Only through organizational and societal shifts – beginning with employers – can change occur and incivility toward nurses become infrequent, rather than the norm.

Everyone can help address this problem, whether you or your loved one is hospitalized, by being understanding and respectful to others, especially when interacting with nurses.

The Conversation

Carolyn Dickens receives funding from UIC research innovation grant.
I am a board member of a federally qualified health care center.

ref. A growing nursing shortage is made worse by nurses’ daily challenges of patients and their families rolling their eyes, yelling and striking – https://theconversation.com/a-growing-nursing-shortage-is-made-worse-by-nurses-daily-challenges-of-patients-and-their-families-rolling-their-eyes-yelling-and-striking-261521

Curious kids: how old is fire on Earth?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Scott, Emeritus Professor of Geology, Royal Holloway, University of London

Anna.zabella/Shutterstock

Please can I ask how old is fire on earth, not tamed by people but since when has there been fire and flames on the planet.

Samuel, 5, London

You ask a very interesting question. For many years, scientists assumed that fire and humans were so connected that few of them gave any thought to what happened to fire before humans evolved.

Even now, after many years of research, you won’t find much information in books
about ancient fire. Indeed, I first started to become interested in this question of fire in the geological past more than 50 years ago, but my work was largely ignored until recently.


Curious Kids is a series by The Conversation that gives children the chance to have their questions about the world answered by experts. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskids@theconversation.com and make sure you include the asker’s first name, age and town or city. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we’ll do our very best.


Your question is important today as the Earth’s weather is changing quickly and we are seeing deadly wildfires around the world. Humans may have used fire for a long time but they have never been able to tame fire. The challenge for scientists at the moment is to work out which fires are caused by humans and which ones are natural. To do this, we need to understand ancient fire in the first place.

A lot of our knowledge comes from studies of charcoal found in rocks more than 350 million years old, in a period geologists call the Carboniferous Period. As I say in my book Burning Planet: The Story of Fire Through Time, charcoal preserves the detail of different parts of the plant charcoal is made from. If you visit a place where there was a recent fire that burned a lot of plants, or collect some charcoal from the remains of a bonfire and look at it under a magnifying glass you may be able to see some of this amazing detail.

Over many years I, together with my students at Royal Holloway University of London, have been collecting information on ancient charcoal to help us understand fires of the past.

The key to understanding when fire appeared on Earth comes from what we call the fire triangle and I have discussed this in my small book Fire: A Very Short Introduction.

The first side of the triangle is fuel. Fire needs plants to burn. So we would not expect to have fire on the Earth before plants evolved. Plants first lived in the sea and started to spread on to the land around 420 million years ago. So there couldn’t have been fire before then.

The second side is heat – we need heat or a spark to start the fire – and that in the ancient past would be lightning. There has always been lightning and we can see evidence of this from fused sand grains found in some ancient sediments.

Finally, we need oxygen to allow the burning process to happen, the same way we need oxygen to breathe. We know this from simple ways we might put out a fire. You can cover the flames to stop oxygen or use sand, water or other materials to cut off the oxygen from the fire. Today the air we breathe has 21% oxygen. But experiments have shown that if you reduce the level to below 17% fires will not spread.

And above 30% it would be hard to put out a fire as even wet plants can burn with that level of oxygen. That is also why no fire or smoking is allowed in hospitals where there is oxygen used for the patients.

The level of oxygen in the Earth’s air has changed a lot over time. Scientists have shown that around 350-250 million years ago was a time of high levels of oxygen between 23 and 30% in the atmosphere and a lot of fire.

Evidence of the first fires was around 420 million years ago from charcoal in sedimentary rocks. But plants were small and there weren’t many places on Earth where they could grow. That meant there weren’t many places fire could burn. It was not until around 350 million years ago that fires started burning in lots of places and burnt in some of the first forests to grow on Earth.

Another time period of high fire was between 140 and 65 million years ago when many of our famous dinosaurs such as triceratops and tyrannosaurus were living and also when flowers first appeared. Around 40 million years ago oxygen levels in the atmosphere stabilised to modern levels. Proper tropical rain forest spread widely. This probably made fire rarer as wet rain forests don’t catch alight easily.

But around 7 million years ago grasslands spread, and these were easily burned. The grass-fire cycle began. This is where regular fire kills the saplings of trees, stopping grasslands turning into forests.

It is into this fiery world that humans evolved around 1.5 million years ago.

This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

The Conversation

Andrew Scott has previously received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council and the Leverhulme Trust.

ref. Curious kids: how old is fire on Earth? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-old-is-fire-on-earth-270701

Finding stillness in motion: how riding a motorcycle can teach us mindfulness

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Judith Roberts, Lecturer in Psychology, Aberystwyth University

Speeding along an open road on my motorcycle, flanked by the great outdoors, the engine hums and the noise in my mind disappears. Riding a motorcycle demands total presence. Focus isn’t optional. It’s a matter of survival. After all, a wandering mind could lead to disaster.

But it’s not fear or panic that sharpens my attention. It is something else entirely. As a clinical psychologist, I understand fear well. I know how danger activates the fight-or-flight response. And yet, paradoxically, it is on my motorcycle that I feel most calm. This is where I experience the greatest joy. It is where I find what I would describe as a state of mindfulness.

Mindfulness is the practice of paying attention to the present moment, on purpose and without judgment. In psychological therapy, it is usually cultivated through meditation. People are encouraged to sit quietly, focus on the breath and observe thoughts and sensations as they arise.

Mindfulness is not an “in the moment” technique to reduce immediate distress. It is a skill developed through regular practice. Research shows that it activates brain areas involved in emotional regulation and focused attention. Studies also suggest mindfulness can improve emotional health, reduce symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress, and help people respond to difficult situations more thoughtfully rather than reacting on impulse.

Mindfulness can be practised in many ways. Some approaches rely on stillness, such as body scans and breathing exercises. Others involve movement, including yoga, tai chi and walking meditation. What unites them is deliberate attention to the here and now.

Because mindfulness is accessible, cheap and relatively easy to learn, it has spread far beyond therapy rooms. It now appears everywhere, from healthcare settings to social media reels and YouTube tutorials promising calm in minutes. This popularity is not necessarily a problem. But mindfulness is not without its limits.

Mindfulness is not a cure for serious mental illness. It cannot resolve structural problems such as poverty, trauma or unsafe environments. For some people, particularly those with a history of trauma or certain mental health conditions, sitting still with their thoughts can be distressing. Mindfulness practices can sometimes intensify intrusive or triggering thoughts rather than soothe them.

As with all types of psychological therapy, there is no one-size-fits-all approach. That is why it is worth broadening how we think about attention, emotional regulation and mental wellbeing.

Attention under pressure

Motorcycling offers one such alternative. It’s a mentally and physically demanding activity. The bike itself is heavy and a rider needs strength and balance, particularly when riding at slow speeds and when stopping. Core muscles are engaged when manoeuvring and all limbs are engaged in braking, clutch control and gear changes.

Mentally, the demands are even greater. Riders must remain continuously alert to road conditions, traffic, weather and the unpredictable actions of other road users. Decisions often need to be made in seconds, like when to brake, when to accelerate, how to navigate a bend, how to respond to an unexpected hazard. All of this takes place knowing that the rider’s protection is limited to their clothing.

These demands may explain why riding a motorbike can feel so absorbing. Research supports this. A study exploring the mental and physical effects of motorcycling showed improvements in focused attention, sensory awareness and the ability to ignore distractions.

Riders become better at scanning their environment and predicting what might happen next. This is a skill known as “situational awareness”. Many riders also report these benefits in their own accounts of riding motorbikes.

Perhaps most strikingly, despite motorcycling being a high-risk activity, research found reductions in stress hormones while riding. The proposed explanation is that the intense concentration required leaves little room for ruminating on everyday worries. Attention is fully captured by the task at hand.

A motorcyclist against a blurred background.
Finding stillness in motion.
O_Zinchenko/Shutterstock

Rethinking mindfulness

Unlike traditional mindfulness practice, motorcycling does not require deliberate non-judgment of thoughts or sensations. There is no effort to observe the mind. The activity itself does the work. Similar effects have been observed in other high-demand pursuits, such as rock climbing and athletic performance.

Clinically, this matters. While traditional mindfulness practices may not be suitable or achievable for everyone, there are alternatives. Activities which demand full engagement – mentally and physically – may offer similar psychological benefits. Purposeful, absorbing activities can help regulate emotions, sharpen attention and reduce stress over time.

For some people, stillness is not the route to being present. Sometimes, mindfulness is found not by slowing down, but by moving – fully, deliberately and with purpose.

The Conversation

Judith Roberts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Finding stillness in motion: how riding a motorcycle can teach us mindfulness – https://theconversation.com/finding-stillness-in-motion-how-riding-a-motorcycle-can-teach-us-mindfulness-272396

Rethinking Troy: how years of careful peace, not epic war, shaped this bronze age city

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephan Blum, Research Associate, Institute for Prehistory and Early History and Medieval Archaeology, University of Tübingen

Imagine a city that thrived for thousands of years, its streets alive with workshops, markets and the laughter of children, yet that is remembered for a single night of fire. That city is Troy.

Long before Homer’s epics immortalised its fall, Troy was a place of everyday life. Potters shaped jars and bowls destined to travel far beyond the settlement itself, moving through wide horizons of exchange and connection.

Bronze tools rang in busy workshops. Traders called across the marketplace and children chased one another along sun‑warmed footpaths. This was the real heartbeat of Troy – the story history has forgotten.

Homer’s late eighth‑century BC epic poems, the Iliad and the Odyssey, fixed powerful images in western cultural memory: heroes clashing, a wooden horse dragged through city gates, flames licking the night sky. Yet this dramatic ending hides a far longer, far more remarkable story: centuries of cooperation embedded in everyday social organisation. A story we might call the Trojan peace.

This selective memory is not unique to Troy. Across history, spectacular collapses dominate how we imagine the past: Rome burning in AD64, Carthage razed in 146BC and the Aztec capital Tenochtitlán falling in AD1521. Sudden catastrophe is vivid and memorable. The slow, fragile work of maintaining stability is easier to overlook.

The Trojan peace was not the absence of tension or inequality. It was the everyday ability to manage them without society breaking apart, the capacity to absorb pressure through routine cooperation rather than dramatic intervention.

When catastrophe outshines stability

Archaeology often speaks loudest when something goes catastrophically wrong. Fires preserve. Ruins cling to the soil like charcoal fingerprints. Peace, by contrast, leaves no single dramatic moment to anchor it.

Its traces survive in the ordinary: footpaths worn smooth by generations of feet; jars repaired, reused and handled for decades, some still bearing the drilled holes of ancient mending. These humble remnants form the true architecture of long‑term stability.

Troy is a textbook example. Archaeologists have identified nine major layers at the site, some of which are associated with substantial architectural reorganisation. But that isn’t evidence of destruction. Rather it simply reflects the everyday reality of a settlement’s history: building, use, maintenance or levelling, rebuilding and repetition.

Instead, I argue that Troy’s archaeological record reveals centuries of architectural continuity, stable coastal occupation and trade networks stretching from Mesopotamia to the Aegean and the Balkans – a geography of connection rather than conflict.

The only evidence for truly massive destruction that can be identified dates to around 2350BC. Against the broader archaeological backdrop, this stands out as a rare, fiery rupture – one dramatic episode within a much longer pattern of recovery and continuity.

Whether sparked by conflict, social unrest or an accident, it interrupted only briefly the long continuity of daily life – more than a thousand years before the events portrayed by the poet Homer in his tale of the Trojan war were supposed to have taken place.




Read more:
Fall of Troy: the legend and the facts


But what actually held Troy together for so long? During the third and second millennia BC, Troy was a modest but highly connected coastal hub, thriving through exchange, craft specialisation, shared material traditions and the steady movement of ideas and goods.

The real drivers of Troy’s development were households, traders and craftspeople. Their lives depended on coordination and reciprocity: managing water and farmland, organising production, securing vital resources such as bronze and negotiating movement along the coast. In modern terms, peace was work, negotiated daily, maintained collectively and never guaranteed.

When crises arose, the community adapted. Labour was reorganised, resources redistributed, routines adjusted. Stability was restored not through force, but through collective problem solving embedded in everyday practice.

This was not a utopia. Troy’s stability was constrained by environmental limits, population pressure and finite resources. A successful trading season could bring prosperity; a failed harvest could strain systems quickly. Peace was never about eliminating conflict, but about absorbing pressure without collapse.

Satellite image of the bronze age citadel of Troy.
Satellite image of the bronze age citadel of Troy. Over more than two millennia, successive phases of construction accumulated at the same location, forming a settlement mound rising over 15 metres above the surrounding landscape.
University of Çanakkale/Rüstem Aslan, CC BY



Read more:
Troy’s fall was partly due to environmental strain – and it holds lessons for today


Archaeologically, this long-term balance appears as persistence: settlement layouts maintained across generations, skills refined and passed down, and gradual expansion from the citadel into what would later become the lower town. These developments depended on negotiation and cooperation, not conquest, revealing practical mechanisms of peace in the bronze age.

Why we remember the war

Stories favour rupture over routine. Homer’s Iliad was never a historical account of the bronze age, but a poetic reflection of heroism, morality, power and loss. The long, quiet centuries of cooperation before and after were too distant – and too subtle – to dramatise.

Modern archaeology has often followed the same gravitational pull. Excavations at Troy began with the explicit aim of locating the battlefield of the Trojan war. Even as scholarship moved on, the story of war continued to dominate the public imagination. War offers a clear narrative. Peace leaves behind complexity.

Reexamining Troy through the lens of peace shifts attention away from moments of destruction and towards centuries of continuity. Archaeology shows how communities without states, armies, or written law sustained stability through everyday practices of cooperation. What kept Troy going was not grand strategy, but the quiet work of living together, generation after generation.

The real miracle of Troy was not how it fell – but for how long it endured. Rethinking the cherished narrative of the Trojan war reminds us that lasting peace is built not in dramatic moments, but through the persistent, creative efforts of ordinary people.


Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.


This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

The Conversation

Stephan Blum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Rethinking Troy: how years of careful peace, not epic war, shaped this bronze age city – https://theconversation.com/rethinking-troy-how-years-of-careful-peace-not-epic-war-shaped-this-bronze-age-city-272833

Why it would be a big mistake for the US to go to war with Iran

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Bamo Nouri, Honorary Research Fellow, Department of International Politics, City St George’s, University of London

Reports of a growing US naval presence in the Gulf have prompted speculation that the US could be preparing for another Middle East war, this time with Iran.

The US president, Donald Trump, has warned of “serious consequences” if Iran does not comply with his demands to permanently halt uranium enrichment, curb its ballistic missile program and end support for regional proxy groups.

Yet, despite the familiar language of escalation, much of what is unfolding appears closer to brinkmanship than preparation for war.

The US president’s own political history offers an important starting point for understanding why this is. Trump’s electoral appeal, both in 2016 and again in 2024, has rested heavily on a promise to end America’s “forever wars” and to avoid costly overseas interventions.

And Iran represents the very definition of such a war. Any all-out conflict with Tehran would almost certainly be long and drag in other countries in the region.

It would also be hard to achieve a decisive victory. For a president whose political brand is built on restraint abroad and disruption at home, a war with Iran would contradict the central logic of his foreign policy narrative.

Meanwhile Iran’s strategic posture is rooted in decades of preparing for precisely this scenario. Since the 1979 revolution, Tehran’s military doctrine and foreign policy have been shaped by survival in the face of potential external attack.

Rather than building a conventional force able to defeat the US in open combat, Iran has invested in asymmetric capabilities: ballistic and cruise missiles, the use of regional proxies, cyber operations and anti-access strategies (including missiles, air defences, naval mines, fast attack craft, drones and electronic warfare capabilities). Anyone who attacks Iran would face prolonged and escalating costs.

This is why comparisons to Iraq in 2003 are misleading. Iran is larger, more populous, more internally cohesive and far more militarily prepared for a sustained confrontation.

An attack on Iranian territory would not represent the opening phase of regime collapse but the final layer of a defensive strategy that anticipates exactly such a scenario. Tehran would be prepared to absorb damage and is capable of inflicting it across multiple theatres – including in Iraq, the Gulf, Yemen and beyond.

With an annual defence budget approaching US$900 billion (£650 billion), there is no question that the US has the capacity to initiate a conflict with Iran. But the challenge for the US lies not in starting a war, but in sustaining one.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan offer a cautionary precedent. Together, they are estimated to have cost the US between US$6 and and US$8 trillion when long-term veterans’ care, interest payments and reconstruction are included.

These conflicts stretched over decades, repeatedly exceeded initial cost projections and contributed to ballooning public debt. A war with Iran – larger, more capable and more regionally embedded – would almost certainly follow a similar, if not more expensive, trajectory.

The opportunity cost of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan were potentially greater, absorbing vast financial and political capital at a moment when the global balance of power was beginning to shift.

As the US focused on counterinsurgency and stabilisation operations, other powers, notably China and India, were investing heavily in infrastructure, technology and long-term economic growth.

That dynamic is even more pronounced today. The international system is entering a far more intense phase of multipolar rivalry, characterised not only by military competition but by races in artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing and strategic technologies.

Sustained military engagement in the Middle East would risk locking the US into resource-draining distractions just as competition with China accelerates and emerging powers seek greater influence.

Iran’s geographic position compounds this risk. Sitting astride key global energy routes, Tehran has the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Even limited disruption would drive oil prices sharply higher, feeding inflation globally. For the US, this would translate into higher consumer prices and reduced economic resilience at precisely the moment when strategic focus and economic stability are most needed.

There is also a danger that military pressure would backfire politically. Despite significant domestic dissatisfaction, the Iranian regime has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to mobilise nationalist sentiment in response to external threats. Military action could strengthen internal cohesion, reinforce the regime’s narrative of resistance and marginalise opposition movements.

Previous US and Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure have not produced decisive strategic outcomes. Despite losses of facilities and senior personnel, Iran’s broader military posture and regional influence have proved adaptable.

Rhetoric and restraint

Trump has repeatedly signalled his desire to be recognised as a peacemaker. He has framed his Middle East approach as deterrence without entanglement, citing the Abraham Accords and the absence of large-scale wars during his presidency. This sits uneasily alongside the prospect of war with Iran, particularly the week after the US president launched his “Board of Peace”.

The Abraham Accords depend on regional stability, economic cooperation and investment. A war with Iran would jeopardise all of these. Despite their own rivalry with Tehran, Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have prioritised regional de-escalation.

Recent experience in Iraq and Syria shows why. The collapse of central authority created power vacuums quickly filled by terrorist groups, exporting instability rather than peace.

Some argue that Iran’s internal unrest presents a strategic opportunity for external pressure. While the Islamic Republic faces genuine domestic challenges, including economic hardship and social discontent, this should not be confused with imminent collapse. The regime retains powerful security institutions and loyal constituencies, particularly when framed as defending national sovereignty.

Taken together, these factors suggest that current US military movements and rhetoric are better understood as coercive signalling rather than preparation for invasion.

This is not 2003, and Iran is neither Iraq nor Venezuela. A war would not be swift, cheap or decisive. The greatest danger lies not in a deliberate decision to invade, but in miscalculation. Heightened rhetoric and military proximity can increase the risk of accidents and unintended escalation.

Avoiding that outcome will require restraint, diplomacy and a clear recognition that some wars – however loudly threatened – are simply too costly to fight.

The Conversation

Bamo Nouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why it would be a big mistake for the US to go to war with Iran – https://theconversation.com/why-it-would-be-a-big-mistake-for-the-us-to-go-to-war-with-iran-274592

People who survive cancers are less likely to develop Alzheimer’s – this might be why

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University

Dragon Images/Shutterstock.com

Cancer and Alzheimer’s disease are two of the most feared diagnoses in medicine, but they rarely strike the same person. For years, epidemiologists have noticed that people with cancer seem less likely to develop Alzheimer’s, and those with Alzheimer’s are less likely to get cancer, but nobody could explain why.

A new study in mice suggests a surprising possibility: certain cancers may actually send a protective signal to the brain that helps clear away the toxic protein clumps linked to Alzheimer’s disease.

Alzheimer’s is characterised by sticky deposits of a protein called amyloid beta that build up between nerve cells in the brain. These clumps, or plaques, interfere with communication between nerve cells and trigger inflammation and damage that slowly erodes memory and thinking.

In the new study, scientists implanted human lung, prostate and colon tumours under the skin of mice bred to develop Alzheimer‑like amyloid plaques. Left alone, these animals reliably develop dense clumps of amyloid beta in their brains as they age, mirroring a key feature of the human disease.

But when the mice carried tumours, their brains stopped accumulating the usual plaques. In some experiments, the animals’ memory also improved compared with Alzheimer‑model mice without tumours, suggesting that the change was not just visible under the microscope.

The team traced this effect to a protein called cystatin‑C that was being pumped out by the tumours into the bloodstream. The new study suggests that, at least in mice, cystatin‑C released by tumours can cross the blood–brain barrier – the usually tight border that shields the brain from many substances in the circulation.

Once inside the brain, cystatin‑C appears to latch on to small clusters of amyloid beta and mark them for destruction by the brain’s resident immune cells, called microglia. These cells act as the brain’s clean‑up crew, constantly patrolling for debris and misfolded proteins.

In Alzheimer’s, microglia seem to fall behind, allowing amyloid beta to accumulate and harden into plaques. In the tumour‑bearing mice, cystatin‑C activated a sensor on microglia known as Trem2, effectively switching them into a more aggressive, plaque‑clearing state.

Surprising trade-offs

At first glance, the idea that a cancer could “help” protect the brain from dementia sounds almost perverse. Yet biology often works through trade-offs, where a process that is harmful in one context can be beneficial in another.

In this case, the tumour’s secretion of cystatin‑C may be a side‑effect of its own biology that happens to have a useful consequence for the brain’s ability to handle misfolded proteins. It does not mean that having cancer is good, but it does reveal a pathway that scientists might be able to harness more safely.

The study slots into a growing body of research suggesting that the relationship between cancer and neurodegenerative diseases is more than a statistical quirk. Large population studies have reported that people with Alzheimer’s are significantly less likely to be diagnosed with cancer, and vice versa, even after accounting for age and other health factors.

An elderly lady and her carer, outside in a park.
People with Alzheimer’s are significantly less likely to get cancer, and vice versa.
Halfpoint/Shutterstock.com

This has led to the idea of a biological seesaw, where mechanisms that drive cells towards survival and growth, as in cancer, may push them away from the pathways that lead to brain degeneration. The cystatin‑C story adds a physical mechanism to that picture.

However, the research is in mice, not humans, and that distinction matters. Mouse models of Alzheimer’s capture some features of the disease, particularly amyloid plaques, but they do not fully reproduce the complexity of human dementia.

We also do not yet know whether human cancers in real patients produce enough cystatin‑C, or send it to the brain in the same way, to have meaningful effects on Alzheimer’s disease risk. Still, the discovery opens intriguing possibilities for future treatment strategies.

One idea is to develop drugs or therapies that mimic the beneficial actions of cystatin‑C without involving a tumour at all. That could mean engineered versions of the protein designed to bind amyloid beta more effectively, or molecules that activate the same pathway in microglia to boost their clean‑up capacity.

The research also highlights how interconnected diseases can be, even when they affect very different organs. A tumour growing in the lung or colon might seem far removed from the slow build up of protein deposits in the brain, yet molecules released by that tumour can travel through the bloodstream, cross protective barriers and change the behaviour of brain cells.

For people living with cancer or caring for someone with Alzheimer’s today, this work will not change treatment immediately. But the study does offer a more hopeful message: by studying even grim diseases like cancer in depth, scientists can stumble on unexpected insights that point towards new ways to keep the brain healthy in later life.

Perhaps the most striking lesson is that the body’s defences and failures are rarely simple. A protein that contributes to disease in one organ may be used as a clean‑up tool in another, and by understanding these tricks, researchers may be able to use them safely to help protect the ageing human brain.

The Conversation

Justin Stebbing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. People who survive cancers are less likely to develop Alzheimer’s – this might be why – https://theconversation.com/people-who-survive-cancers-are-less-likely-to-develop-alzheimers-this-might-be-why-274304