Category: Analysis

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Debbie Felton, Professor of Classics, UMass Amherst

“No Kings” rallies. “Good Trouble” protests. “Rage against the Regime” uprisings. These events in the first seven months of President Donald Trump’s second term, along with public opinion polls, show that many Americans are concerned about Trump’s expansive use of executive power.

Views on this issue often have a partisan slant. Republicans express more concern about presidential power when Democrats control the White House, and vice versa.

But many in both parties prefer that U.S. political leaders work through established channels, rather than through unconventional actions that may pose challenges to the Constitution and the rule of law, such as mass firings and large-scale deportations.

As a professor of classics, I know that concerns about authoritarianism go back thousands of years. One early discussion appears in the work of the fifth-century B.C.E. Greek writer Herodotus, whose “History” – sometimes called “Histories” – is considered the first great prose narrative in Western literature.

In it, Herodotus analyzed the Persian invasion of Greece – the defining event of his time. To understand how Greece, a much smaller power, achieved a major victory over Persia, Herodotus explored the nature of effective leadership, which he saw as a critical factor in the conflict’s outcome.

A shocking upset

Persia was already a vast empire when it invaded Greece, a tiny country made up of independent city-states. The Persians expected a quick and easy victory.

Instead, the Greco-Persian Wars lasted over a decade, from 490 to 479 B.C.E. They ended with Greece defeating the Persians – a shocking upset. Consequently, Persia abandoned its westward expansion, while various Greek city-states formed a tenuous alliance that lasted nearly 50 years.

To explain this unexpected outcome, Herodotus described how Persian and Greek societies developed before this crucial conflict. In his view, the fact that many Greek city-states had representative governments enabled the Greek victory.

These systems allowed individuals to participate in discussing strategies and resulted in the Greeks uniting to fight for freedom. For example, when the Persian fleet was headed toward mainland Greece, the Athenian general Miltiades says, “Never before have we been in such extreme danger. If we give in to the Persians, we will suffer greatly under the tyrant Hippias.”

Herodotus tended to put his political philosophies into the mouths of historical figures such as Miltiades. He condensed his thoughts about government into what historians call the “Constitutional Debate,” a fictional conversation among three real characters: Persian noblemen named Otanes, Megabazus and Darius.

Persia’s ascent

For centuries prior to invading Greece, Persia had been a small region inhabited by various ancient Iranian peoples and controlled by the neighboring kingdom of Media. Then, in 550 B.C.E., King Cyrus II of Persia overthrew the Medes and expanded Persian territory into what became the Achaemenid Empire.

Thanks to his effective leadership and tolerance for the customs of cultures he conquered, historians call him “Cyrus the Great.”

His son and successor, Cambyses, was less successful. He added Egypt to the Persian empire, but according to Herodotus, Cambyses acted erratically and cruelly. He desecrated the pharaoh’s tomb, mocked the Egyptians’ gods, and killed their sacred Apis bull. He also demanded that Persian judges change the laws so that he could marry his own sisters.

After Cambyses died childless, various factions vied for the Persian throne. Herodotus set his discussion about alternative political systems in this unstable period.

The case for democracy

Otanes, the first speaker in the Constitutional Debate, says “the time has passed for any one man among us to have absolute power.” He recommends that the Persian people themselves handle state affairs.

“How can monarchy continue to be our norm, when a monarch can do whatever he wants, with no accountability whatsoever?” Otanes asks. Even worse, a monarch “disrupts the laws,” as Cambyses did.

Otanes favors rule by the many, which he calls “isonomia,” meaning “equality under the law.” In this system, he explains, politicians are elected and held responsible for their behavior and make decisions transparently.

Today, unlike Otanes, Republican members of Congress appear reluctant to hold Trump responsible for anything or ensure transparency within the administration. Prominent Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Jamie Raskin and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, are challenging Trump administration actions that they view as lawless, such as freezing of funds authorized by Congress.

Do oligarchs know better?

Otanes’ fellow nobleman, Megabazus, agrees that the Persians should abolish monarchy, but he raises concerns about rule by the people.

“The masses are useless – there’s nothing more witless and violent than a crowd,” Megabazus asserts. He believes “commoners” don’t understand the intricacies of policymaking.

Instead, Megabazus suggests oligarchy, or “rule by a few.” Choose the best men in Persia and let them rule everyone else, he urges, because they “will naturally come up with the best ideas.”

But Megabazus doesn’t explain who would qualify as “the best men” or who would select them.

The U.S. has occasionally resembled an oligarchy, with small, elite groups holding most political power. For example, Article 1, Section 3 of the original Constitution provided for election of senators by state legislators, not directly by the people. Senators were not elected by popular vote until the 17th Amendment passed in 1913.

More recently, Trump has received millions of dollars in support from billionaire tech industry leaders such as Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos, who hope to influence antitrust policy and deregulation. The Department of Government Efficiency, headed by Musk before he stepped down in May 2025, is now run by young men with virtually no government experience. DOGE’s cuts to programs such as humanitarian aid are wreaking havoc across the globe.

What about monarchy?

The third speaker, Darius, sees democracy and oligarchy as equally flawed. He points out that even well-intentioned oligarchs fight among themselves because “each wants his own opinion to prevail.” This leads to hatred and worse, much like the Trump-Musk relationship gone sour.

Rather, Darius asserts, “using good judgment, a monarch will be a flawless guardian of the people.” He argues that since Persia was freed by one man, King Cyrus II, Persians should maintain their traditional monarchy.

Darius doesn’t explain how to ensure a monarch’s good judgment. But his argument wins out. It had to, since in reality Darius became Persia’s next king. Kings, or shahs, ruled Persia – it became known as Iran in 1935 – until the Iranian Revolution of 1979 eliminated the monarchy and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Trump is not technically a monarch, but some believe he acts like one. He and his administration have ignored court orders, preempted the powers of Congress and sought to silence his critics by attacking protected free speech.

Lessons from Herodotus

Herodotus himself was largely pro-democracy, but his Constitutional Debate doesn’t endorse one form of government. Instead, it highlights principles of good leadership. These include accountability, moderation and respect for “nomos,” a Greek term encompassing the concepts of custom and law.

Herodotus emphasizes: “Formerly great cities have become small, while small cities have become great.” Human fortune changes constantly, and Persia’s failure to conquer Greece is just one example.

History has seen the rise and fall of many world powers. Is the United States next? Herodotus viewed the Persian monarchy, whose kings believed their own authority was paramount, as the weakness that led to their astounding defeat in 479 B.C.E.

Debbie Felton is affiliated with the Democratic Party (registered to vote).

– ref. Authoritarian rulers aren’t new – here’s what Herodotus, an early Greek historian, wrote about them – https://theconversation.com/authoritarian-rulers-arent-new-heres-what-herodotus-an-early-greek-historian-wrote-about-them-259127

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Sky Hooler, Ph.D. Student in Environmental Science, University at Albany, State University of New York

Lush forests and crisp mountain air have drawn people to New York’s Adirondack Mountains for centuries. In the late 1800s, these forests were a haven for tuberculosis patients seeking the cool, fresh air. Today, the region is still a sanctuary where families vacation and hikers roam pristine trails.

However, hidden health dangers have been accumulating in these mountains since industrialization began.

Tiny metal particulates released into the air from factories, power plants and vehicles across the Midwest and Canada can travel thousands of miles on the wind and fall with rain. Among them are microscopic pollutants such as lead and cadmium, known for their toxic effects on human health and wildlife.

For decades, factories released this pollution without controls. By the 1960s and 1970s, their pollution was causing acid rain that killed trees in forests across the eastern U.S., while airborne metals were accumulating in even the most remote lakes in the Adirondacks.

As paleolimnologists, we study the history of the environment using sediment cores from lake bottoms, where layers of mud, leaves and pollen pile up over time, documenting environmental and chemical changes.

In a recent study, we looked at two big questions: Have lakes in the Northeast U.S. recovered from the era of industrial metal pollution, and did the Clean Air Act, written to help stop the pollution, work?

Digging up time capsules

On multiple summer trips between 2021 and 2024, we hiked into the Adirondacks’ backcountry with 60-pound inflatable boats, a GPS and piles of long, heavy metal tubes in tow.

We focused on four ponds – Rat, Challis, Black and Little Hope. In each, we dropped cylindrical tubes that plunge into the darkness of the lake bottom. The tubes suction up the mud in a way that preserves the accumulated layers like a history book.

Back in the lab, we sliced these cores millimeter by millimeter, extracting metals such as lead, zinc and arsenic to analyze the concentrations over time.

The changes in the levels of metals we found in different layers of the cores paint a dramatic picture of the pristine nature of these lakes before European settlers arrived in the area, and what happened as factories began going up across the country.

A century plagued by contamination

Starting in the early 1900s, coal burning in power plants and factories, smelting and the growing use of leaded gasoline began releasing pollutants that blew into the region. We found that manganese, arsenic, iron, zinc, lead, cadmium, nickel, chromium, copper and cobalt began to appear in greater concentrations in the lakes and rose rapidly.

At the same time, acid rain, formed from sulfur and nitrogen oxides from coal and gasoline, acted like chemical shovels, freeing more metals naturally held in the bedrock and forest soils.

The result was a cascade of metal pollution that washed down the slopes with the rain, winding through creeks and seeping into lakes.

All of this is captured in the lake sediment cores.

As extensive logging and massive fires stripped away vegetation and topsoil, the exposed landscapes created express lanes for metals to wash downhill. When acidification met these disturbed lands, the result was extraordinary: Metal levels didn’t just increase, they skyrocketed. In some cases, we found that lead levels in the sediment reached 328 parts per million, 109 times higher than natural preindustrial levels. That lead would have first been in the air, where people were exposed, and then in the wildlife and fish that people consume.

These particles are so small that they can enter a person’s lungs and bloodstream, infiltrate food webs and accumulate in ecosystems.

Then, suddenly, the increase stopped.

A public outcry over acid rain, which was stripping needles from trees and poisoning fish, led to major environmental legislation, including the initiation of the Clean Air Act in 1963. The law and subsequent amendments in the following decades began reducing sulfur dioxide emissions and other toxic pollutants. To comply, industries installed scrubbers to remove pollutants at the smokestack rather than releasing them into the air. Catalytic converters reduced vehicle exhaust, and lead was removed from gasoline.

The air grew cleaner, the rain became less acidic, and our sediment cores show that the lakes began to heal through natural biogeochemical processes, although slowly.

By 1996, atmospheric lead levels measured at Whiteface Mountain in the Adirondacks had declined by 90%. National levels were down 94%. But in the lakes, lead had decreased only by about half.

Only in the past five years, since about 2020, have we seen metal concentrations within the lakes fall to less than 10% of their levels at the height of pollution in the region.

Our study is the first documented case of a full recovery in Northeast U.S. lakes that reflects the recovery seen in the atmosphere.

It’s a powerful success story and proof that environmental policy works.

Looking forward

But the Adirondacks aren’t entirely in the clear. Legacy pollution lingers in the soils, ready to be remobilized by future disturbances from land development or logging. And there are new concerns. We are now tracking the rise of microplastics and the growing pressures of climate change on lake ecosystems.

Recovery is not a finish line; it’s an ongoing process. The Clean Air Act and water monitoring are still important for keeping the region’s air and water clean.

Though our findings come from just a few lakes, the implications extend across the entire Northeast U.S. Many studies from past decades documented declining metal deposition in lakes, and research has confirmed continued reductions in metal pollutants in both soils and rivers.

In the layers of lake mud, we see not only a record of damage but also a testament to nature’s resilience, a reminder that with good legislation and timely intervention, recovery is possible.

Sky Hooler received funding from National Science Foundation with
the Geological Society of America Graduate Student Geoscience
Research Grant #1949901, 2021.

Aubrey Hillman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Industrial pollution once ravaged the Adirondacks − decades of history captured in lake mud track their slow recovery – https://theconversation.com/industrial-pollution-once-ravaged-the-adirondacks-decades-of-history-captured-in-lake-mud-track-their-slow-recovery-260182

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Thomas A. Stapleford, Associate Professor of History and Liberal Studies, University of Notre Dame

Many financial and political analysts are trying to assess the impact of President Donald Trump’s decision to fire U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Aug. 1, 2025, the same day that an unemployment report conveyed weakness in the job market. Some of the strongest criticism of this unprecedented move has come from Republican-aligned and nonpartisan experts, including a former BLS commissioner Trump appointed during his first term and the American Economic Association, a nonprofit that has 17,000 members in academic, government and business professions. They have said that what Trump has accused McEntarfer of doing – “rigging” data“ – would be impossible to pull off.

The Conversation U.S. asked Tom Stapleford, a professor who has written a book on the political history of the U.S. consumer price index, to explain why this move could undermine trust in the indicators the government releases and why that could damage the economy.

What key data does the BLS release?

Founded in 1884, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly and annual data about American consumers and workers. Historically, the BLS has focused on urban workers and consumers, while the Department of Agriculture covered farmers and agricultural work. But these days, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also collects some data reflecting rural areas too.

The bureau publishes monthly data on inflation, employment and unemployment, and compensation. It also measures productivity on a quarterly basis, and twice per year it issues reports on consumer purchases – what people buy and how much they spend in different categories.

These official statistics are often revised in the months that follow as the bureau adopts new methods or more data becomes available.

How can data affect markets and the economy?

The bureau’s data on inflation, employment, unemployment and compensation draws the most attention because it answers basic questions about the economy.

For example: Are prices rising? Are employers adding new jobs? Are people finding work? How much are workers getting paid?

Employment and unemployment may seem very similar, but they show you different things. BLS employment data tells you how many jobs there are, where they are and in what lines of work.

BLS unemployment data is about people. How many Americans are looking for work but can’t find a job? How many have part-time jobs but would prefer to work full time?

The BLS also collects, analyzes and releases inflation data that shows how price changes are affecting American consumers. The BLS consumer price index data is weighted so that changes in the prices of items that are a big part of household expenses will have a larger effect on the final results than other changes.

Each BLS statistic has a narrow focus, but, taken together, they can reveal a lot about economic conditions across the country and in specific states.

Businesses and investors look to BLS data as guides for trends that might affect companies or financial markets as a whole. If prices start to rise quickly, the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates, which reduces bond prices.

If job creation starts to slow, the country might be heading toward a recession, and employers might pull back on hiring and production or invest less in new equipment. Policymakers use BLS statistics to guide decisions about government actions, and everyone else may use them to judge whether politicians have succeeded in managing the economy well.

Of course, all of these uses depend on Americans being able to trust the numbers. The BLS goes to great lengths to secure that trust, publishing detailed descriptions of its methods and research papers that try to explain patterns in the data and test new approaches. Until recently, the BLS also had two unpaid advisory committees of economists and statisticians from companies, universities and nonprofits that analyzed BLS methods and offered advice.

However, the Department of Labor disbanded those committees in March 2025, stating that the committees “had fulfilled their intended purpose.”

What does the BLS commissioner do?

The BLS commissioner oversees all aspects of the bureau’s operations and serves as the primary liaison with Congress and the leadership of the Department of Labor.

Although some early BLS commissioners did not have advanced degrees, all commissioners since the 1930s have had Ph.D.s in economics or statistics, as well as substantial experience using or producing statistical data.

Unlike rank-and-file BLS staff, who are typically career civil servants, the commissioner is appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate for a four-year term. Due to the timing of those terms, each commissioner’s tenure normally spans two presidential terms. The Senate overwhelmingly approved McEntarfer’s nomination, for example, in an 86-8 vote held in January 2024.

However, this appointment is at will, meaning that a president can legally remove a commissioner at any time.

Could the top BLS official fudge any data?

It would be very difficult for the commissioner to alter or falsify data on his or her own.

The data is produced collectively by a large nonpartisan staff who are protected by civil service regulations, so it would be impossible for the commissioner simply to change the numbers.

Nonetheless, the commissioner could shape BLS data indirectly. The commissioner could make certain data harder to access, devote fewer resources to some topics or close some data series altogether.

More significantly, creating national statistics is complicated: There is always uncertainty, and even experts will disagree on many issues. A sufficiently motivated commissioner could potentially nudge the data in favored directions simply by altering the methodology.

If BLS staff thought a commissioner was truly trying to manipulate the statistics, however, I would expect many of them would resign or protest publicly. And there’s no sign of that having happened under McEntarfer’s leadership. She has strong support from former BLS commissioners and leading economists.

What are some possible consequences?

I do not expect to see any immediate consequences from McEntarfer’s firing.

The acting commissioner of the BLS, William Wiatrowski, is a longtime BLS employee who has held this role before.

The rest of the bureau’s staff remain the same. Over the long term, the actions of whomever Trump appoints as McEntarfer’s permanent replacement will determine whether her firing was an aberration or the mark of a new relationship between the White House and the BLS that could eventually undercut trust in its statistics.

To strengthen confidence in the BLS, the new commissioner could reinstate the external advisory committees that the Trump administration has disbanded. But he or she could weaken confidence by making controversial changes, especially regarding employment statistics, that are criticized by leading professional organizations or that cause top BLS officials to quit their jobs.

I believe it’s unlikely that BLS statistics could be faked in ways that would deceive economists. But they could become much less useful, and that would be bad for the United States.

Thomas A. Stapleford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Bureau of Labor Statistics tells the US what’s up with the economy – Trump firing its top official may undercut trust in its data – https://theconversation.com/bureau-of-labor-statistics-tells-the-us-whats-up-with-the-economy-trump-firing-its-top-official-may-undercut-trust-in-its-data-262673

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Michael G. Kozak, Associate Clinical Professor of Educational Administration and Leadership, Drexel University

Generative AI platforms have sent shock waves through the K-12 education sector since the public release of ChatGPT nearly three years ago.

The technology is taking hold under the belief that students and teachers need to be proficient in these powerful tools, even though many concerns remain around equity, privacy, bias and degradation of critical thinking among students.

As a professor who teaches future educators and is part of an AI-focused working group, I have observed the potential for artificial intelligence to transform teaching and learning practices in K-12 schools. The trends I am seeing – and that I encourage – are for K-12 educators to use AI to shift from memorization and rote learning to instead emphasize critical thinking and creativity.

Jumping in the deep end

After the public release of ChatGPT in late 2022, some large school districts initially banned the use of AI due to concerns about cheating. Surveys also reflected worries about chatbots fabricating information, such as references for school papers, in addition to concerns about misinformation and biases existing in AI responses to prompts.

Students, on the other hand, tended to jump into the deep end of the AI pool. Common Sense Media, which offers recommendations on children’s media consumption, published a report in 2024 showing that students were using AI-supported search and chatbots for homework and to stave off boredom as well as other personal reasons, including “creating content as a joke, planning activities, and seeking health advice.” Most of the teachers and parents of the students in the study were unaware that students were using the technology.

In my work at Drexel University teaching graduate students who are aspiring school principals or superintendents, I found that in 2023, K-12 students were afraid of using AI due to the policies implemented in their districts banning it. However, it quickly became apparent that students were able to mask their use of AI by instructing AI to insert some mistakes to their assignments.

Meanwhile, despite teachers’ initial concerns about AI, approximately 60% of K-12 teachers now admit to using AI to plan lessons, communicate with parents and assist with grading. Concerns over students cheating still exist, but time-strapped teachers are finding that using AI can save them time while improving their teaching.

A recent Walton Foundation and Gallup study revealed that teachers who used AI tools weekly saved an average of 5.9 hours per week, which they reallocated to “providing students more nuanced feedback, creating individualized lessons, writing emails and getting home to their families in a more reasonable time.”

Opening up new ways of teaching

I recommend that my graduate students use AI because I think ignoring emerging trends in education is not wise. I believe the benefits outweigh the negatives if students are taught ethical use of the technology and guardrails are put in place, such as requiring that AI be cited as a source if students use it in coursework.

Advocates say AI is changing teaching for the better, since it forces teachers to identify additional ways for students to demonstrate their understanding of content. Some strategies for students who rely too heavily on AI include oral presentations, project-based learning and building portfolios of a student’s best work.

One practice could involve students showing evidence of something they created, implemented or developed to address a challenge. Evidence could include constructing a small bridge to demonstrate how forces act on structures, pictures or a video of students using a water sampling device to check for pollution, or students designing and planting a community garden. AI might produce the steps needed to construct the project, but students would actually have to do the work.

Teachers can also use AI to create lessons tailored to students’ interests, quickly translate text to multiple languages, and recognize speech for students with hearing difficulties. AI can be used as a tutor to individualize instruction, provide immediate feedback and identify gaps in students’ learning.

When I was a school superintendent, I always asked applicants for teaching positions how they connected their classroom lessons to the real world. Most of them struggled to come up with concrete examples. On the other hand, I have found AI is helpful in this regard, providing answers to students’ perennial question of why they need to learn what is being taught.

Thought partner

Teachers in K-12 schools are using AI to help students develop their empathetic skills. One example is prompting an AI to “redesign the first-day experience for a relocated student entering a new middle school.” AI created the action steps and the essential questions necessary for refining students’ initial solutions.

In my own classroom, I’ve used AI to boost my graduate students’ critical thinking skills. I had my students imagine that they were college presidents facing the loss of essential federal funding unless they implemented policies limiting public criticism of federal agencies on campus. This proposed restriction, framed as a requirement to maintain “institutional neutrality,” requires students to develop a plan of action based on their knowledge of systems and design thinking. After each team developed their solution, I used AI to create questions and counterpoints to their proposed solution. In this way, AI becomes a critical thought partner to probe intended and unintended outcomes, gaps in students’ thinking and potential solutions that might have been overlooked.

AI researcher Ethan Mollick encourages educators to use AI as a springboard, similar to jazz musicians improvising, as a way to unleash new possibilities. Mollick advises people to partner with AI as co-intelligence, be the human in the loop, treat AI as a co-worker, albeit one that needs to be prodded for evidence, and to learn to use it well. I concur.

Changing perspectives on AI

Some early studies on the effects of using AI in education have raised concerns that the convenience of generative AI will degrade students’ learning and erode their critical thinking skills.

I think that further studies are needed, but I have found in my own work and in the work of my graduate students that AI can enhance human-produced work. For example, AI-powered teaching assistants, like Khanmigo or Beghetto Bots, use AI to help students solve problems and come up with innovative solutions without giving away the answers.

My experiences with other educators on the front lines show me that they are beginning to change their perspectives toward students using AI, particularly as teachers realize the benefit of AI in their own work. For example, one of my graduate students said his district is employing a committee of educators, students and outside experts to explore how AI can be used ethically and in a way that won’t erode students’ critical thinking skills.

Educators are starting to realize that AI isn’t going away anytime soon – and that it’s better to teach their students how to use it, rather than leave them to their own devices.

Michael G. Kozak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. AI is taking hold in K-12 schools – here are some ways it can improve teaching – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-taking-hold-in-k-12-schools-here-are-some-ways-it-can-improve-teaching-259501