Entre la Chine et les Etats-Unis, l’Afrique doit s’imposer comme l’arbitre des minéraux critiques

Source: The Conversation – in French – By James Boafo, Lecturer in Sustainability and Fellow of Indo Pacific Research Centre, Murdoch University

Les minéraux critiques tels que le lithium, le cobalt, le nickel, le cuivre, les terres rares et les métaux du groupe du platine sont essentiels aux technologies modernes, notamment à des secteurs comme l’électronique, les télécommunications, les énergies renouvelables, la défense et les systèmes aérospatiaux.

La demande mondiale pour ces minéraux ne cesse de croître, tout comme la concurrence pour s’en procurer.

L’approvisionnement et la production de ces minéraux sont largement concentrés dans les pays du Sud. La majeure partie du cobalt mondial est ainsi produite en République démocratique du Congo (RDC). Ce pays fournit près des trois quarts de la production mondiale de cobalt. L’Australie produit quant à elle près de la moitié du lithium mondial. Le Chili représente un autre quart de la production mondiale de lithium, suivi par la Chine avec 18 %.

La Chine, de son côté, domine la chaîne d’approvisionnement grâce à des investissements massifs dans les opérations minières, en particulier en Afrique. Elle est responsable du raffinage de 90 % des éléments de terres rares et du graphite, et de 60 à 70 % du lithium et du cobalt. Les États-Unis et l’Union européenne, partenaires commerciaux de longue date des pays africains, ont également adopté des politiques visant à garantir l’accès aux ressources africaines.

La question est de savoir ce que font les pays africains pour tirer parti de cette demande en minéraux essentiels, en particulier pour stimuler leur propre développement.

En tant que chercheurs spécialisés dans le développement, nous abordons cette question dans une publication consacrée à l’importance croissante des minéraux critiques en Afrique, éditée par le Indian Council of World Affairs. Dans une autre publication, nous examinons comment la nouvelle diplomatie des ressources risque de maintenir l’Afrique dans un rôle simple de fournisseur de matières premières de l’économie mondiale.

Nous recommandons aux pays africains de déterminer eux-mêmes comment tirer profit de cette concurrence mondiale. Cela passe notamment par l’élaboration de stratégies nationales qui mettent l’accent sur la valeur ajoutée et les avantages locaux. Ces stratégies nationales devraient commencer par mettre en position les pays africains de manière à ce qu’ils tirent profit de leurs ressources au-delà de la valeur ajoutée.

Cette compétition autour des minéraux essentiels de l’Afrique souligne ainsi l’urgence des réformes de gouvernance et de la coopération régionale afin de transformer la richesse minérale en prospérité durable, en évitant ainsi une nouvelle « malédiction des ressources ».

Le « nouvel ordre mondial » émergent

Un « nouvel ordre mondial » dirigé par la Chine est en train d’émerger pour contrer l’influence occidentale menée par les États-Unis. Les pays de l’Est et du Sud illustrent ce changement à travers des regroupements tels que les BRICS et la coopération Sud-Sud dans les domaines de la technologie et du développement. La Chine a également renforcé son influence dans le Sud grâce à des initiatives telles que la nouvelle route de la soie (Belt and Road Initiative).

Lancée en 2013, l’initiative « Nouvelle route de la soie» est un projet d’infrastructures ambitieux qui relie les continents par voie terrestre et maritime. Depuis lors, plus de 200 accords ont été signés avec plus de 150 pays et 30 organisations internationales. Cette initiative a augmenté l’accès de la Chine aux ressources. Cela se fait souvent en échange du développement d’infrastructures qui relient les régions minières aux ports.

En Afrique, la Chine a investi massivement dans l’exploitation minière et les infrastructures dans les pays riches en ressources tels que la RDC, le Zimbabwe, la Zambie, l’Afrique du Sud et le Ghana. Ses entreprises ont notamment dépensé environ 4,5 milliards de dollars américains dans des projets liés au lithium au Zimbabwe, en RDC, au Mali et en Namibie.

Pékin a récemment célébré le 80e anniversaire de la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale par un défilé militaire qui a permis de mettre en avant la puissance militaire de la Chine. Le président Xi a affirmé à cette occasion que la Chine était désormais une puissance « inarrêtable ».

Forte de son influence et de son accès privilégié aux minéraux critiques, ce pays a consolidé sa capacité à acquérir du matériel militaire et des technologies de pointe.

La concurrence pour les minéraux essentiels de l’Afrique

L’Afrique détient environ 30 % des gisements mondiaux de minéraux critiques, ce qui en fait un enjeu géopolitique majeur. Les États-Unis et l’UE cherchent à conclure des accords afin de sécuriser leur approvisionnement et de réduire leur dépendance vis-à-vis de la Chine.

L’UE a ainsi conclu des partenariats stratégiques sur les minéraux avec la RDC, le Rwanda, la Namibie et la Zambie. La Chine a pour sa part conclu des accords bilatéraux avec onze pays africains dans le secteur minier. Les États-Unis ont également signé un accord trilatéral avec la RDC et la Zambie. Son objectif est de soutenir une chaîne de valeur intégrée pour les batteries des véhicules électriques (VE). Elle a également signé récemment un accord « Minerais pour la paix » avec la RDC et le Rwanda afin de tenter de mettre fin à des décennies de conflit dans l’est du Congo.

Bien que les pays africains aient besoin d’aide pour transformer leurs ressources en prospérité, nos recherches ont montré que ces partenariats risquent d’accentuer la position marginale de l’Afrique dans la chaîne de valeur mondiale. En effet, ils reproduisent souvent des conditions qui rappellent le colonialisme : dépendance, extraction des ressources et déséquilibres de pouvoir.

La voie à suivre

Nos recherches montrent que la rivalité entre l’ordre mondial échaffaudé par les États-Unis et celui impulsé par la Chine dépendra de plusieurs facteurs. Il s’agit notamment du contrôle des technologies émergentes: les énergies renouvelables, la défense, l’aérospatiale et l’IA. Or toutes ces industries dépendent des minéraux critiques. L’accès élargi à ces minéraux et à leurs chaînes d’approvisionnement, ainsi que leur contrôle, seront donc des facteurs déterminants de la puissance mondiale.

La compétition entre les États-Unis et la Chine pour les minéraux essentiels va s’intensifier. Dans cette bataille, il est crucial que les pays africains restent neutres. Ces derniers doivent s’engager uniquement dans des partenariats significatifs et mutuellement bénéfiques qui font véritablement progresser leurs pays et leurs économies.

A cet égard, les pays africains doivent définir explicitement leurs priorités dans le secteur extractif. Sans stratégie claire, l’Afrique continuera de se voir imposer l’avenir par les puissances extérieures. Le continent restera prisonnier de sa dépendance au lieu de pouvoir tirer pleinement parti de la valeur réelle de ses richesses minérales.

Enfin, plutôt que de se contenter de se disputer les minéraux critiques de l’Afrique, la Chine, les États-Unis et l’UE devraient s’engager de manière équitable avec les pays africains dans le secteur extractif afin de garantir un développement équitable sur tout le continent.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Entre la Chine et les Etats-Unis, l’Afrique doit s’imposer comme l’arbitre des minéraux critiques – https://theconversation.com/entre-la-chine-et-les-etats-unis-lafrique-doit-simposer-comme-larbitre-des-mineraux-critiques-267351

India’s monsoon is becoming more extreme – even though overall rainfall has hardly increased

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ligin Joseph, PhD Candidate, Oceanography, University of Southampton

Across India, torrential rains over the past few months have swallowed an entire village in the Himalayas, flooded Punjab’s farmlands and brought Kolkata to a standstill. This all happened in a monsoon season in which total rainfall was technically only 8% above normal.

Climate change is not simply making India’s monsoon wetter. It’s making it wilder – with longer dry spells and more extreme downpours.

The Indian summer monsoon, which delivers about 80% of the country’s annual rainfall, usually sweeps in from the Arabian Sea in early June and retreats at the end of September. Growing up in India, I remember the joy of watching the rains arrive each year, the scent of wet earth and the relief they brought after a scorching April and May. Those memories still live in me. But today, the same monsoon that once filled our rivers and hearts with hope now brings fear and uncertainty.

This year, the monsoon arrived a week early, the fastest onset in 16 years. However, an early start does not necessarily translate to higher rainfall totals for the season. The modest 8% above average hides the real story: many regions experienced unusually intense and frequent downpours.

In the Himalayan village of Dharali, for instance, a cloudburst in early August triggered flash floods that left the local market buried under sediment as high as a four-storey building. Most parts of the village were completely washed away. Scientists suspect melting glaciers and cloudbursts – both linked to a warmer climate – were to blame.

In Punjab, a state of 30 million people often called India’s “food bowl”, heavy rains drowned crops across an area roughly the size of Greater Manchester. All 23 districts of the state were affected.

Scientists say the deluge was driven by an unusual interaction between regular monsoon weather systems and “western disturbances” – storm systems that originate in the Mediterranean and typically influence India’s weather in the winter. Their overlap this year amplified rainfall across northern India.

On the other side of the country, the huge city of Kolkata was not spared either. Some areas received 332mm of rain in just a few hours, more than half of what London gets in a whole year. The rains fell just before the major Hindu festival of Durga Puja, paralysing the city. The culprit was another low-pressure system that formed over the Bay of Bengal and carried vast amounts of moisture inland.

While the south escaped the worst flooding, cities such as Mumbai and Vijayawada also saw intense cloudbursts, demonstrating the spread of extreme rainfall.

Why the monsoon is becoming more extreme

Each disaster was driven by the same underlying trend: a warmer atmosphere that can hold more moisture. For every degree of warming, the air can store about 7% more water vapour – and when that moisture is released, it falls in heavier downpours over shorter periods. This trend is now clearly visible in India’s monsoon data.

Map of India
How the number of extreme rainfall days during the summer monsoon has changed since 1951. Green areas are having more extremes; brown areas less. Extremes are increasing across southern and western India, and decreasing in parts of central and northeastern India. (Boundaries and names shown on the map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance).
Ligin Joseph (data: Indian Meteorological Department)

The number of extreme rainfall days, when daily totals exceed the top 10% of the long-term average, has risen sharply across southern and western India since the 1950s. Some regions, meanwhile, are receiving less overall rain but in stronger and more erratic bursts, meaning both droughts and floods can be a threat in the same season.

Scientists have also noticed shifts in the monsoon’s circulation and in the low-pressure systems that drive it. Climate change is pushing the whole monsoon system westward, increasing rainfall over typically arid northwestern India, while decreasing rainfall over the traditionally wetter northeast.

All this extreme rainfall is turning the monsoon from a friend into a foe. Unless we act responsibly to limit greenhouse gas emissions and become more resilient to the consequences of a changing climate, the season that sustains life across India may increasingly threaten it.


Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.


The Conversation

Ligin Joseph receives funding from the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council (Nerc).

ref. India’s monsoon is becoming more extreme – even though overall rainfall has hardly increased – https://theconversation.com/indias-monsoon-is-becoming-more-extreme-even-though-overall-rainfall-has-hardly-increased-267159

What the Caerphilly byelection could reveal about Reform, Labour and Wales’ political future

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Marc Collinson, Lecturer in Political History, Bangor University

Caerphilly castle is the second largest castle in the UK Ceri Breeze/Shutterstock

When voters in Caerphilly in south Wales go to the polls later this month, it will be about far more than one seat in the Senedd, Wales’s devolved parliament.

Caerphilly, a postindustrial town just north of Cardiff, has long been considered safe Labour territory. But in recent years, economic upheaval and social change have made once rock-solid seats like these far less predictable.

The contest is therefore not just about who wins a single seat, but what kind of Wales will emerge from a period of upheaval. Will it be one clinging to the certainties of its industrial past? Or one looking toward Plaid Cymru and the prospect of Welsh independence as the political voice for such unease? Or, alternatively, will it turn to the populist right?

What happens here could indicate whether Labour’s hold on the Welsh valleys is starting to loosen, and whether new political forces are taking root. It’s a local contest with national stakes.

Labour remains Wales’s dominant political force, but the past 18 months have been turbulent. Mark Drakeford’s retirement as first minister was followed by Vaughan Gething’s brief and troubled leadership.

Meanwhile, the current first minister Eluned Morgan faces her own challenges. Fourteen members of the Labour group will step down before the 2026 Senedd election.

The Caerphilly byelection, triggered by the death of sitting Labour member Hefin David, comes at a difficult time for Labour across both the UK and in Wales.

Labour’s UK leadership remains focused on Westminster, while in Wales, divisions over candidate selection and policy have occasionally exposed cracks in the party’s valleys strongholds. History offers warnings.

For example, in 2005, Labour suffered a shock defeat in nearby Blaenau Gwent when former Labour member Peter Law stood as an independent after rebelling against the party’s candidate selection. His victory – and the byelection wins that followed his death – showed how local discontent can upend even the safest seats.

Whatever happens in Caerphilly, the real test for Labour will be what follows, as the result may affect its majority to govern and pass a budget. It could remain in office as the largest party, but without power.

The rise of Reform

Among the most striking developments in Welsh politics is the growing profile of Reform UK, now rebranding its Welsh operation as “Reform UK Wales”.

Analyses point to similarities with the Brexit Party and UKIP. Like these parties before, Reform taps into the undercurrent of discontent that runs through many post-industrial communities.

While some research suggests Reform may be perceived as even more racially divisive than its predecessors.

In Caerphilly, Reform has an active local campaign and a simple message: bring back money and decision-making to local communities. The party is positioning itself against both the Welsh government’s record in the Senedd while channelling resentment toward Westminster.

For some voters, Reform’s appeal is less about specific policies than about mood – frustration with established politics and a desire for something new.

Under changes due next year, the Senedd will grow in size and adopt a more proportional voting system. That could make it easier for smaller parties like Reform to win representation, giving this byelection added importance as a test of their strength.

A strong showing could signal a profound realignment in the political geography of Wales, and a measure of how far populist politics has embedded itself in areas once considered the bedrock of Labour Wales.

Stepping stone to a Plaid government?

Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, is keen to show it can turn rising national support into real gains.

The party has come close to winning Caerphilly before. In 1968, its candidate Phil Williams cut Labour’s majority from more than 20,000 to fewer than 2,000 votes.

More recently, former Plaid leader Leanne Wood’s surprise victory in nearby Rhondda in 2016 showed Plaid could break through in Labour heartlands. But her loss five years later underlined how hard it is to sustain momentum.

Rhun ap Iorwerth clapping his hands.
Could Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth form the next Welsh government?
van Blerk/Shutterstock

Polling suggests Plaid could form a government in 2026 if current trends continue, but that depends on building a consistent base in areas like Caerphilly. A victory here would not just be symbolic; it would demonstrate that Plaid’s message resonates beyond its rural and Welsh-speaking heartlands.

The upcoming electoral reforms could further boost Plaid’s chances, if it can show voters that it offers a credible alternative to Labour.




Read more:
Is backing Welsh independence the same as being a nationalist? Not necessarily


For other parties, expectations are modest. The Conservatives are struggling to make headway in Wales, while the Liberal Democrats remain on the margins. But the Caerphilly byelection will still send a message far beyond this one constituency.

Whatever the result, Caerphilly will offer a snapshot of a nation in transition. A comfortable Labour win would suggest its dominance in the valleys remains intact. A strong showing for Plaid or Reform, however, would point to deeper realignments. It’s evidence that Wales’s political future may look very different from its past.

The Conversation

Marc Collinson received funding from the Y Werin Legacy Fund.

Robin Mann receives funding from Economic and Social Research Council.

ref. What the Caerphilly byelection could reveal about Reform, Labour and Wales’ political future – https://theconversation.com/what-the-caerphilly-byelection-could-reveal-about-reform-labour-and-wales-political-future-266545

Four-year-olds don’t need to sit still to be ‘school ready’

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lucy Sors, Senior Lecturer, York St John University

Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

The UK government’s strategy for early years education in England aims to get children in reception “school-ready”. But what school readiness means is debatable.

Education secretary Bridget Phillipson has pointed out that half of reception-aged children “can’t sit still”. And recent writing guidance outlines handwriting and spelling lessons for reception-aged children.

As experts in primary education, we take the view that children aged four and five should not be sitting still at tables. Expecting children to sit still and formally learn how to write at this early age conflicts with widely accepted theories around cognitive and physical development.

Research by theorists in child development emphasises the importance of active play and exploration. Children can develop their interests through free choice activities that support their language, communication and thought.

Researchers argue that young children should be encouraged to understand their world in a range of indoor and outdoor settings that can be explored through the power of play.

Not all children can or should sit still. Children need physical play to develop their strength, coordination, and motor skills before being given a pencil to write. They need role play to learn how to communicate, question, and hold conversations before following instructions.

They should be encouraged to move and explore through free play instead of sitting still. At an early age, children’s enjoyment of learning should be the priority. For every child this will be different, and practice should respond to children’s preferences and interests.

The government’s Plan for Change sets milestones for strategic national developments. In its mission to “break down barriers to opportunity”, the plan aims for 75% of children to achieve a “good level of development” (GLD) by 2028.

This means that children must meet 12 of the 17 prescribed early learning goals. These measure a level of development across areas like language, personal, social and emotional development, mathematics and literacy when children reach the end of their reception year at school, at age five.

Group of children in uniform with backpacks
There’s a lot of difference between children at age four.
Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

But what does this value? Three of the early learning goals focus on literacy. Children cannot meet the “good level of development” if they have not met the early learning goal for writing.

As well as this, a child may excel in many of the learning goals, but still not meet the criteria. There are other considerations, such as a potential age difference of up to 11 months among children finishing reception.

This creates an uneven playing field, with some children needing more time to develop language and communication, physical, personal, social and emotional skills before a formal move into literacy and mathematics.

The government recommends that reception teachers should plan regular explicit handwriting and spelling lessons that directly target children who may choose not to write in their play. This directive approach might not suit every child and takes away their choice over opportunities to play.

Learning through play

In Finland, children start primary school at age seven. The Finnish educational model sees learning through play as “essential”.

New Zealand’s Te Whāriki is specifically a “play-based” curriculum. It understands that each child learns at their own pace. It explains the power of storytelling and play to build foundations in reading, writing, and maths.

Within the UK, Wales and Scotland focus on play as essential to improving outcomes. Play pedagogy in the Scottish curriculum emphasises responding to the unique needs of each child. Wales views “playwork” as vital for children’s health, wellbeing and overall development.

England’s Early Years Foundation Stage Framework sets the standards that school and childcare providers in England must meet for the learning, development and care of children from birth to five.

In this document the importance of play and following children’s interests is also highlighted. But this is overshadowed by government messaging and guidance on the importance of formalised academic skills such as phonics and writing.

Our research highlights the importance of connections between child development, culture, and responding to children and their environments.

Playful creativity, problem-solving, and experimentation help build strong foundations for learning. Valuing children’s experiences instead of focusing on prescribed milestones helps them learn to connect with the world around them as well as develop academically.

The English Early Years curriculum needs to return to basics. This keeps foundational learning through play at its heart, including all children and responding to their stage of development.

When we play, listen, read and talk with children, we give them a great start in life. This begins with looking at them as individuals. Learning in the early years should foster a love of learning, promote positive relationships and help children to understand the world.

Nurture, care, play and exploration should be prioritised to develop confident, resilient, and adaptable learners who can navigate a fast-changing world.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Four-year-olds don’t need to sit still to be ‘school ready’ – https://theconversation.com/four-year-olds-dont-need-to-sit-still-to-be-school-ready-261812

Why climate summits fail – and three ways to save them

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francesco Grillo, Academic Fellow, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University

Nearly three decades after the first UN climate conference, emissions are still rising. The global system for tackling climate change is broken – it’s slow, cumbersome and undemocratic.

Even Donald Trump may not be totally wrong when he blames the UN for producing “empty words and then never [following] those words up”. If we assess the progress since the first UN Cop climate summit in 1995, the numbers on emissions confirm that not very much did, indeed, follow years of words.

We urgently need not just to redesign climate policies but also a new method for drafting those polices. Climate change could even be the right issue in which to experiment with an approach that might inspire a wider reform of multinational institutions.

A conference I have helped organise beginning October 16 in Venice on the global governance of climate change will discuss three ideas.

First, we need to gradually redesign the decision-making process to solve a deficit of both efficiency and democracy. Decisions today are slow and weak because they de facto seek unanimity.

The Paris agreement, for instance, only required 55 countries producing at least 55% of global emissions to enter into force. And yet diplomats worked so that it could be agreed by all 195 UN member states – including those that later dropped out – by adopting words that tend to be “empty” to avoid displeasing anybody.

At the same time, the process does not even include all the parties that really matter: technically, the microstate of San Marino is one of the signatories of the agreements; the megacity of Los Angeles is not. Current mechanisms also miss the opportunity to experiment with direct representation of groups for whom climate change matters more, such as young people, indigenous people or farmers.

One idea would be to leverage the relative concentration of the world economy. China, the US and India represent almost half of the world population (and much of the population living below the global poverty line), more than half of the GDP and emissions; and most of the private investment in artificial intelligence that may enable some of the most interesting solutions.

Reforms that go beyond current blanket consensus are necessary. For instance, some experts have proposed a qualified majority voting system, in which changes might require a supermajority of countries or perhaps a majority of both developed and developing countries.

But we must be even more ambitious than this: voting rights should instead reflect size.

This would create incentives for states to move towards pooling their votes into regional representations. Trade-based regional agreements, like South American Mercosur, the African Continental Free Trade area or the Association of South East Asian Nations could evolve into climate-related alliances.

This would be a gigantic opportunity for leadership by the EU, which has accumulated more hard-earned experience than any other multilateral organisation in how to pool national wills. It could set an example by merging its 27 seats into one, showing how its carbon border adjustments and other collective instruments can translate ambition into action.

Drastically reducing the number of parties could allow for the introduction of a high qualified majority (75% of the parties) to avoid a situation like the UN’s security council where vetoes of just five parties is enough for paralysis.

This would also open space for a more direct representation of vital interests. The existing alliance of climate-vulnerable small island states could get a vote that outweighs their modest populations and GDPs. The C40 group of major cities could get an institutionalised role.

Young citizens assemblies have long been experimented with and it is time to give them a formal vote. This would also force, in turn, their internal decision-making processes to be more transparent. Such a reform would be limited to the UN climate change conferences and if successful be scaled up to other UN decision-making process.

Simplify climate finance

Second, it is necessary to streamline the chaotic array of climate-related financial instruments. Colleagues and I recently counted about 30 facilities bridging developing and developed countries and meant to finance climate projects, with much overlap and confusion.

One possibility would be to merge many small funds into three to five bigger instruments. Only Germany and UK, for instance, fund ten of such facilities (and four of them are a joint effort). Each of the instruments resulting from the consolidation would be dedicated to a big-picture goal that every citizen, investor and asset manager can immediately understand.

There could be one fund for adaptation (including the problematic “loss and damage”); one for mitigation (and energy transition); one for financing research and development, and technology sharing; and one for encouraging, assessing and scaling up experiments.

Reinvent the Cop format

Third, we absolutely need to change the format of Cop itself. The cost of flying and accommodating 100,000 delegates at Cop28 in Dubai was probably higher than the total amount promised at that same Cop to compensate poorer countries for climate-related losses. This results-to-cost ratio is one reason why the climate agenda has lost some popular support.

One possibility is to transform Cop from a gigantic exhibition that changes location every year, into five permanent forums (one for each main continent) focused on generating and managing knowledge on five problems that we need to solve.

They are: climate adaptation; climate mitigation; governance of places that are beyond national boundaries (oceans, Arctic, Antarctic); AI and climate; geoengineering (a last resort technology in need of strong global control).

Distributing Cops around the world would focus the debate, make participation easier, cut costs and emissions, and could sustain a year-round dialogue rather than a single big moment.

Governance of the climate is not working. Yet the climate may be the best problem against which to apply a radically new method of global governance. It may become a blueprint for the much wider question of how we reinvent institutions that were conceived for a different, much more stable era.

And if we can fix how the world decides on climate, we might learn to fix how it decides on everything else, too.


Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.


The Conversation

Francesco Grillo is affiliated with Vision, the think tank.

ref. Why climate summits fail – and three ways to save them – https://theconversation.com/why-climate-summits-fail-and-three-ways-to-save-them-267470

Quadrobics: is the trend for walking on all fours like an animal good for your fitness?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Gordon, Professor of Exercise Physiology, Anglia Ruskin University

Quadrobics puts all four limbs to work. Okrasiuk/ Shutterstock

Instead of wasting hours squatting weights in the gym or pounding miles of pavement in your running shoes, you could instead get all the benefits of a workout just by moving a little bit more like other animals.

“Quadrobics” is the internet’s latest fitness trend. This unconventional training method involves using all four of your limbs during a workout. Proponents claim it’s a highly beneficial form of exercise because of the large number of muscle groups that it uses. By running on all fours, muscles in the shoulders, upper and lower arms, as well as the legs, back and core are used.

Sounds good in theory but is it any more effective than your normal workout?

Although there’s limited research on quadrobics, research does show that the greater the amount of muscle used in a workout, the more benefits your cardiovascular fitness and health will see.

For instance, research which has compared cycling and running has shown that running leads to greater cardiorespiratory fitness gains than cycling does. This is probably due to the different amounts of muscles each activity uses.

Cycling focuses mainly on the legs and lower body, while running is more of a whole-body exercise. Since running places demand on a greater number of muscles, this may explain why it leads to greater fitness gains.

Quadrobics, which apparently uses almost all of the major muscle groups, should therefore lead to greater gains than either running or cycling.

However, when one study compared quadrobics to a standard walking programme, quadrobics oddly did not seem to use more energy – despite spiking heart rate to a greater degree. This finding probably comes down to the fact that both activities use the same muscle groups, but just to varying degrees.

But while quadrobics does not necessarily appear to be better than walking, it may have other fitness benefits.

During a quadrobics workout, you might end up using different muscles than you would during a more conventional type of workout. For instance, compared to running, quadrobics would place a greater emphasis on the shoulder muscles, but would require less work from the calves.

This suggests that quadrobics may have potential benefits for flexibility and balance. One study looked at the effect of an eight-week quadrobics training plan in young people.

It found that compared to the control group (who did two 60-minute sessions of typical physical activity), the quadrobics group saw greater improvements in shoulder flexibility and balance.

Meanwhile, although quadrobics does work many of the body’s muscles, there is currently no evidence to suggest it’s more beneficial than weight training in improving strength.

A man crawls on all fours across a turf field.
Quadrobics movements replicate those of animals.
Just dance/ Shutterstock

But something that cannot be discounted is the novelty of this exercise. One of the appeals of quadrobics is the playfulness of the exercise. This could have positive effects on mood and help relieve stress.

A number of groups describe quadrobics as “animal flow training” as it encourages us to adopt animal poses and attitudes. Since many find going to the gym can become uninspiring and boring over time, quadrobics could offer a solution to this.

If you’re looking to give quadrobics a try, two popular exercises are trotting and cantering.

In a trot lift your right hand and left leg at the same time, then your left hand and right leg. You will create a diagonal type of movement. While in a canter drive from the legs together and then land on your hands. This exercise can be done continuously or as repeated bouts of high intensity efforts, interspersed with periods of recovery.

For those new to the practice, it’s best to start slow when walking on all fours before advancing to these exercises. This is because there may be a risk of injury with these types of movement as they place much of the impact force on the elbows and wrists.

The potential risk of fracture or sprain is even higher in older adults, who experience more fragile bones and joint immobility, and those taking certain prescription drugs – such as corticosteroids.

The fitness benefits of walking like an animal might not be any greater than those seen with more conventional exercises, but the novelty of quadrobics may provide an entrance point to health and fitness – especially for those who may find conventional workouts boring.

The Conversation

Dan Gordon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Quadrobics: is the trend for walking on all fours like an animal good for your fitness? – https://theconversation.com/quadrobics-is-the-trend-for-walking-on-all-fours-like-an-animal-good-for-your-fitness-266524

Van Gogh and the Roulins: a family reunion of the artist’s greatest portraits

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Frances Fowle, Personal Chair of Nineteenth-Century Art, History of Art, University of Edinburgh

The Van Gogh Museum’s new exhibition, Van Gogh and the Roulins – Together Again at Last, celebrates an important family reunion. It brings together 14 portraits of the wife and three children of the postman Joseph Roulin – Vincent van Gogh’s closest friend and supporter while he was based in the southern French town of Arles.

The exhibition is a work of art in itself: tightly focused, beautifully designed and accompanied by an excellent catalogue. Additional works and props (such as Roulin’s chair) contextualise the show, but it is the portraits of the Roulins – Joseph, Augustine, 17-year-old Armand, 11-year-old Camille and baby Marcelle – that take centre stage.

Hung in three rooms on contrasting deep blue and orange walls they demonstrate the new direction that Van Gogh’s work was taking during a crucial period of his artistic development.

As a group they represent, on one level, the artist’s personal longing for the stability of a wife and family and, on another, his radical rethinking of portraiture as a genre. They were painted at a time when, in correspondence with his two friends, Paul Gauguin and Emile Bernard, he was struggling with the idea of art as “abstraction”. That is, as a fusion of the real and the imaginary.

Van Gogh wanted to paint ordinary people as he “felt” them and to raise them to the level of the universal. He was interested in creating symbolic “types”, of portraiture such as “the poet” or “the soldier”, and also sought to evoke the character and soul of the sitter.

As the exhibition cleverly demonstrates – through the careful placement of comparative works and “glimpses” via various sight-lines – he was inspired by artists such as Rembrandt, Frans Hals and even Honoré Daumier, all of whom devoted themselves to what Van Gogh termed “the painting of humanity”.

Two paintings of bearded men sat in chairs
Postman Joseph Roulin by Van Gogh (1888) and The Merry Drinker by Frans Hals (1628-1630).
Museum of Fine Arts Boston/Rijksmuseum

In July and August 1888 Van Gogh painted two expressive and colourful portraits of the bearded Roulin, whom he viewed as the modern equivalent of Frans Hals’s painting, The Merry Drinker (1628-1630). The first portrait shows this jolly barfly in his smart blue cap and uniform leaning awkwardly on a table in the Café de la Gare.

It recalls the artist’s description of the postman in a letter to Bernard as “something of an alcoholic, and with a high colour as a result”. He was also a “raging republican” and the two spent long hours conversing about politics.

In October Van Gogh moved to the “little yellow house” in Arles, where he rented two rooms and a studio for only 21 francs 50 centimes a month. A reconstruction of the house is installed on the first floor of the exhibition, which is devoted entirely to wider interpretation and family activities.

It was close to the station, where Roulin often worked, and also had a pleasant aspect, opposite the leafy Place Lamartine. Gauguin soon joined him there and for the next two months they enjoyed a fruitful relationship.

In November 1888, Van Gogh decided to paint all five members of the Roulin family, including baby Marcelle in her mother’s arms. Gauguin, too, produced his own somewhat austere portrait of Augustine, and it is interesting to compare his more abstracted approach with Van Gogh’s more personal interpretation.

Colourful painting of a woman in a chair
Gauguin’s portrait of Augustine, Madame Roulin (1888).
Saint Louis Art Museum

Rather than pay the family to sit for him on numerous occasions, Van Gogh then embarked on several “repetitions” or variations of his own paintings. The exhibition devotes a whole section to these repeated portraits of the family, inviting the visitor to compare the first version with its copy. Although dating them is a challenge, the repetitions appear more systematic, producing a calmer, more contemplative image, in emulation of Rembrandt.

Particularly curious are two portraits of Marcelle who, with her intense blue eyes and chubby features, takes on an almost grotesque appearance. She is dressed in a white christening robe, with a gold bracelet and pinkie ring, which were common christening gifts.

Painting of a chubby baby
Portrait of Marcelle Roulin by Van Gogh (1888).
Van Gogh Museum

At the end of December 1888, Van Gogh’s mental state deteriorated dramatically, culminating in him severing most of his left ear with a razor. He was admitted to hospital in Arles, where both Joseph and Augustine paid him regular visits. As a selection of touching letters in the exhibition testify, Roulin also kept in touch with Vincent’s brother Theo.

Once back at the yellow house, Van Gogh continued to work almost obsessively on his repetitions, producing five extraordinary portraits of Madame Roulin, portraying her as the universal symbol of the comforting mother.

Dressed in green, she is seated in a red chair and set against a background of swirling daisies. She holds the rope of a baby’s cradle, evoking the idea of the comforter. Van Gogh even imagined the perfect location for the portrait as the cabin of a ship, where it would rock with the waves, reminding the sailors of their own mother.

This is a wonderful, absorbing exhibition, but with a salutary message. For, before he left Arles, Van Gogh gave the five original Roulin portraits to the postman as a token of their friendship. In 1900, in desperate need of money, Joseph sold all five, together with three other paintings, to the art dealer Ambroise Vollard for a pittance. If only he could have held on to them – today the portraits are recognised as among Van Gogh’s greatest achievements.

Van Gogh and the Roulins – Together Again at Last is at the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam until January 11 2026.


Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.


The Conversation

Frances Fowle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Van Gogh and the Roulins: a family reunion of the artist’s greatest portraits – https://theconversation.com/van-gogh-and-the-roulins-a-family-reunion-of-the-artists-greatest-portraits-267349

Warmer weather is leading to vanishing winters in North America’s Great Lakes

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Marguerite Xenopoulos, Professor and Canada Research Chair in Global Change of Freshwater Ecosystems, Trent University

Fifty years ago, winter didn’t just visit the Great Lakes — it took up residence. If you blinked too slowly, your eyelashes froze together. Standing on the ice at the edge of Lake Superior, just after an early January snowstorm, everything was white and still, except for the lake. The wind had swept across it revealing ice cracked along thunderous fractures.

Usually by Christmas, Lake Huron’s Saginaw Bay would be locked in — thick enough for trucks, ice shanties dotting the horizon like little wooden cities. People hauled augers and bait out before dawn, thermoses of black coffee steaming in the cold.

But in 2019-20, the ice never came.

The air, wet and gray, hovered above freezing. The ground was muddy. Kids tried sledding on dead grass. Businesses that rented shanties stayed shuttered and people wondered if this is how winters would be going forward.

The environmental and social consequences of warming winters are impacting lakes globally. Despite these clear signs, most Great Lakes monitoring occurs during warmer, calmer weather.

As professors researching winter and members of the International Joint Commission Great Lakes Science Advisory Board, we’ve developed evidence-based advice for policymakers in Canada and the United States on water quality priorities and co-ordination. To strengthen international monitoring co-operation, we recommend adding winter monitoring to fully understand what ails the lakes.

Warming winter syndrome

Diagnosed with “warming winter syndrome,” the Great Lakes’ surface water temperatures are increasing, especially during the cold season.

Winters in the Great Lakes region are trending warmer and wetter, and annual maximum ice cover is significantly declining. Winter conditions are getting much shorter — by about two weeks fewer each decade since 1995.

In the Great Lakes region, businesses, visitors and more than 35 million residents see winter warming symptoms year-round. Shifting seasons increase nutrient runoff, fuelling algal blooms that foul summer beach days.

Changing food webs affect commercially and culturally important species like lake whitefish. Shrinking ice cover makes recreation and transportation less safe, altering the region’s identity and culture.

Winter is changing the most, but studied the least

We are losing winter on the Great Lakes before fully understanding how the season affects the ecosystem and communities. Our review of recent literature shows winter is understudied.

Researchers have limited understanding of the physical, biological and biogeochemical processes at play. Changes to these processes can affect water quality, ecosystem and human health, and the region’s social, cultural and economic well-being, yet understanding them is difficult without the necessary background.

Under the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, Canadian and American agencies monitor and report water quality and health indicators. The agreement establishes objectives for Great Lakes water quality, including keeping them safe for drinking, recreation and consumption of fish and wildlife. However, current efforts focus on warm months.

Expanding to winter would address key data gaps. Ad-hoc studies already show winter warrants systematic monitoring. In 2022, a dozen Canadian and U.S. universities and agencies collected under-ice samples across the basin in the Great Lakes Winter Grab.

Teams travelled by foot or snowmobiles and drilled through the ice to collaboratively gather a snapshot of lake life and water quality conditions across all five Great Lakes.

What followed was a grassroots Great Lakes Winter Network of academics and government researchers to better understand how rapidly winter conditions are changing, with the aim to improve data sharing, resource co-ordination and knowledge exchange.

A series of images showing the extent of winter ice cover in the Great Lakes.
Annual maximum ice coverage on the Great Lakes from 1973 to 2025. Despite significant variance year to year, ice coverage on the lakes has declined by roughly 0.5 per cent annually since 1973.
(NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

Impacts on communities

Warmer winters are linked to increased drownings from unstable ice. Greater nutrient runoff fuels harmful algal blooms and complicates drinking water treatment.

Reduced ice cover may extend the shipping season but can harm the US$5.1 billion fishery sector by altering habitats, increasing invasive species pressures and degrading water quality.

Winter also shapes cultural identity and recreation. From snowshoeing to skating on frozen lake waters, residents and visitors to the Great Lakes region can share happy memories of wintertime activities. Its loss can erode community ties, traditions and livelihoods.

Changing winter conditions also present threats to the traditions and cultural practices of Indigenous Peoples in the region. Many Indigenous Peoples express their cultural relationships to their ancestral lands through hunting, fishing, gathering and farming.

For example, lower total snowfall and more frequent freeze-thaw events remove nutrients from soil and may result in changes in the seasonal timing and availability of culturally important plant species. Unstable ice limits fishing and reduces opportunities to pass on skills, language and cultural practices to future generations.

a man in winter clothing standing on a frozen lake with instruments for taking samples.
Collecting samples on Lake Erie to study wintertime conditions in the lake. This research was conducted as part of the 2022 Great Lakes Winter Grab.
(Paul Glyshaw/NOAA)

Strengthening Great Lakes winter science

Data collection in cold-weather conditions poses logistical challenges. Researchers need specialized equipment, trained personnel and co-ordinated approaches for safe, efficient observations. Expanding Great Lakes winter science requires more resources.

Our new report highlights knowledge gaps in winter processes, socioeconomic and cultural impacts of changing conditions, and how to strengthen Great Lakes winter science.

The report also cites infrastructure limits, calling for more training so scientists can work safely in cold conditions, such as the 2024 Winter Limnology Network training workshop. Better data management and sharing are also needed to maximize the value of collected information.

Great Lakes winter science is growing, but improved capacity and co-ordination are essential to keep pace with changing conditions. These changes affect not only ecosystems but also communities. Strengthening winter science will help safeguard the health and well-being of those who live, work and play across the Great Lakes basin.

The Conversation

Marguerite Xenopoulos receives funding from Canada Research Chairs and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council.

Michael R. Twiss is affiliated with the International Association for Great Lakes Research.

ref. Warmer weather is leading to vanishing winters in North America’s Great Lakes – https://theconversation.com/warmer-weather-is-leading-to-vanishing-winters-in-north-americas-great-lakes-263108

Écouter un livre aide-t-il à mieux apprendre ?

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Frédéric Bernard, Maître de conférences en neuropsychologie, Université de Strasbourg

La lecture d’un texte à voix haute l’enrichit d’une interprétation et d’une dimension émotionnelle. Mais dans quelle mesure l’écoute d’un livre en format audio aide-t-elle à mieux comprendre un texte ? Peut-elle concurrencer des pratiques de lecture classiques dans un cadre scolaire ?


Qu’il s’agisse de documents présents dans les manuels scolaires ou de fictions narratives étudiées en cours de lettres, la lecture de textes reste un pilier des apprentissages. Mais l’essor du livre audio ouvre de nouvelles possibilités d’approches.

Peut-on envisager d’écouter des œuvres littéraires au programme plutôt que de les lire de manière classique ? Et, en ce cas, l’écoute d’un texte permet-elle la même compréhension que sa lecture ?

Lire ou écouter : des différences limitées en apparence

Dans une méta-analyse publiée dans la Review of Educational Research et prenant en compte les résultats de 46 études menées entre 1955 et 2020, incluant au total 4 687 participants enfants et adultes, Virginia Clinton-Lisell, enseignante-chercheuse en psychologie de l’éducation à l’Université du Dakota du Nord, constate que les niveaux de compréhension ne diffèrent pas significativement lorsque les mêmes textes sont lus ou écoutés.

Ce résultat peut être rapproché d’une étude de Madison Berl et de ses collègues, publiée en 2010 dans le journal Brain and Language, montrant que des enfants âgés de 7 ans à 12 ans activent des régions cérébrales communes lors de l’écoute et de la lecture d’histoires. Ces régions comprennent notamment un réseau fronto-temporal impliqué dans des traitements sémantiques et syntaxiques partagés entre les deux modalités d’exploration, que les auteurs qualifient de « cortex de la compréhension ».

Un réseau comparable, auquel s’ajoutait la région pariétale, était également activé par des adultes qui écoutaient ou lisaient la même histoire dans l’étude de Fatma Deniz et de ses collègues, publiée en 2019 dans The Journal of Neuroscience.

Adapter son rythme avec la lecture classique

Cependant, la méta-analyse de Clinton-Lisell souligne aussi que la compréhension devient meilleure en lecture qu’en écoute lorsque les participants peuvent lire à leur propre rythme. La lecture offre en effet la possibilité d’ajuster librement sa vitesse : ralentir face à une difficulté, revenir en arrière ou vérifier une information. Ce contrôle cognitif n’est pas possible lors de l’écoute d’un texte dont le rythme est fixé, sans possibilité de retour en arrière aussi naturelle.

De plus, la lecture s’avère plus efficace que l’écoute lorsque la compréhension générale et inférentielle est évaluée, alors que cette différence ne se retrouve pas pour la compréhension littérale.

L’écoute, qui impose un rythme et une structure sonore, rend plus difficiles la mise en œuvre de stratégies de compréhension et la génération d’inférences – c’est-à-dire de liens entre les idées issues du texte et les connaissances et souvenirs dont dispose chacun. La lecture, au contraire, offre une plus grande liberté d’organisation mentale et favorise une créativité interprétative, soutenue par des processus de régulation attentionnelle et de contrôle cognitif.

Lorsqu’il s’agit d’amener les élèves à développer une réflexion plus approfondie, la lecture demeure la modalité la plus efficace. Elle stimule la création d’inférences, essentielles pour établir la cohérence du texte – gage d’une compréhension fine et profonde.

Avec l’écoute, une dimension émotionnelle

L’écoute d’un texte présente toutefois certains avantages, notamment sur le plan de l’expérience vécue.

Elle implique la perception de voix, d’intonations et de prosodies qui, pour les personnes qui y sont sensibles, apportent une dimension affective et émotionnelle plus directe que la lecture silencieuse. Elle peut également faciliter l’accès au texte pour des élèves en difficulté de lecture, en réduisant la charge visuelle et en soutenant la continuité de l’attention.

Cependant, l’écoute sollicite aussi l’attention auditive, qui constitue en soi une compétence spécifique, mobilisant à la fois la mémoire de travail et l’attention soutenue. Elle demande de maintenir une vigilance soutenue face à un flux verbal continu, ce qui peut représenter un défi pour certains élèves, notamment ceux ayant des difficultés de concentration ou de traitement auditif. L’écoute favorise alors une immersion auditive susceptible d’améliorer la compréhension globale du récit, même si elle n’offre pas toujours le même degré de contrôle sur les détails du texte.

Cette mise en voix peut renforcer l’engagement de l’auditeur et enrichir la réception d’un texte narratif, en accentuant la présence des personnages et le rythme du récit. La lecture, de son côté, permet une forme de dialogue intérieur et une suspension du temps propice à la réflexion.

L’anthropologue Michèle Petit décrit très subtilement, dans son ouvrage Lire le monde (2014), la force de l’expérience de la lecture à tout âge. Dans le chapitre intitulé « À quoi ça sert de lire ? », elle évoque plusieurs vertus de la lecture, parmi lesquelles la capacité à se retirer du tumulte, à s’ouvrir à d’autres mondes et à se construire soi-même. La section « Lever les yeux de son livre » illustre particulièrement bien cette expérience singulière : celle d’une lecture qui permet de suspendre le fil du texte pour laisser naître une pensée, une image ou un souvenir – ce que l’écoute, plus linéaire, favorise moins.

Former un assemblage cognitif vertueux

La professeure de littérature Katherine Hayles propose dans plusieurs de ses ouvrages – le plus récent étant Bacteria to AI: Human Futures with Our Nonhuman Symbionts (2025) – le concept d’« assemblage cognitif » pour désigner les systèmes hybrides dans lesquels les humains interagissent avec des technologies qui prolongent leurs capacités mentales. Si ce cadre concerne d’abord la relation entre humains et ordinateurs, il peut être élargi à la manière dont nous faisons corps avec les supports de la lecture et de l’écoute.

Lire un texte ou l’écouter relève de formes distinctes d’assemblages cognitifs, chacun mobilisant différemment nos sens, notre attention, notre mémoire et nos émotions. Apprendre à reconnaître ces différences – et à choisir la modalité la plus adaptée selon le but visé (lecture approfondie ou écoute immersive) et selon nos préférences (exploration plutôt visuelle et tactile, voire olfactive, ou auditive) – revient à former un assemblage cognitif vertueux, capable de tirer parti de la richesse de chaque mode d’interaction avec le langage et la culture.

Pour l’école, l’enjeu n’est donc pas de choisir entre lecture et écoute, mais d’apprendre aux élèves à reconnaître la valeur propre de chaque mode et à les combiner de manière réfléchie.

Cette prise de conscience des modalités d’exploration des textes participe d’une pédagogie différenciée, attentive aux styles d’apprentissage. Elle invite à développer une véritable éducation à la métacognition : apprendre à observer sa manière d’apprendre, à ajuster son rythme et à choisir le support le plus adapté selon le contexte.

Savoir quand lire, quand écouter et comment passer de l’un à l’autre – voire combiner les deux modes –, c’est apprendre à ajuster sa manière d’apprendre, et, plus largement, à penser par soi-même.

The Conversation

Frédéric Bernard ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Écouter un livre aide-t-il à mieux apprendre ? – https://theconversation.com/ecouter-un-livre-aide-t-il-a-mieux-apprendre-266699

« Project 2025 » : le manuel secret de Trump prend vie

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam, Responsable du programme « Politiques et relations internationales » à la faculté de langues étrangères, Université de Tours

Recours aux forces fédérales sur le territoire des États-Unis, désignation de l’opposition politique comme « ennemi intérieur », démantèlement de nombreuses agences, remise en cause de nombreux droits sociétaux… Depuis son arrivée au pouvoir en janvier, l’administration Trump met en œuvre un programme d’une grande dureté, qui correspond largement aux préconisations du « Project 2025 », document publié en 2023 par le groupe de réflexion de droite ultraconservatrice l’Heritage Foundation.


Fin septembre, l’Illinois a porté plainte contre l’administration Trump, qu’il accuse d’avoir ordonné un « déploiement illégal et anticonstitutionnel » de troupes fédérales sur son territoire. Le gouverneur démocrate J. B. Pritzker a qualifié le déploiement dans son État de la garde nationale, annoncé par l’administration Trump, d’« instrument politique ». Le bras de fer juridique bat son plein.

La controverse survient quelques jours seulement après un discours prononcé par Donald Trump à Quantico (Virginie) devant un immense parterre de hauts gradés de l’armée. Le président y a déclaré, à propos de plusieurs grandes cités dont les maires sont issus du Parti démocrate, citant San Francisco, Chicago, New York ou encore Los Angeles :

« Nous devrions utiliser certaines de ces villes dangereuses comme terrains d’entraînement pour notre armée. »

Et d’ajouter :

« Nous subissons une invasion de l’intérieur. Ce n’est pas différent d’un ennemi étranger, mais c’est à bien des égards plus difficile, car ils ne portent pas d’uniformes. »

Or, le recours à l’armée pour des missions de maintien de l’ordre est en principe très encadré par la loi aux États-Unis. Depuis le Posse Comitatus Act de 1878, l’usage des forces fédérales à des fins civiles est strictement limité, sauf exceptions prévues par la loi (notamment l’Insurrection Act). C’est précisément ce verrou que l’administration Trump cherche aujourd’hui à contourner.




À lire aussi :
Trump face à la Californie : affrontement à haute tension


Ces initiatives n’ont rien d’improvisé : elles reprennent les orientations du « Project 2025 », le manuel de gouvernement conçu par le think tank Heritage Foundation, qui préconise un renforcement de l’autorité présidentielle et une redéfinition des menaces intérieures.

Le Project 2025, de manifeste à manuel de gouvernement

Lorsque l’Heritage Foundation – traditionnellement considérée comme un groupe de réflexion conservateur mais qui, ces dernières années, a pris un tournant de plus en plus radical – a présenté, en 2023, son Project 2025, le document a suscité un mélange de curiosité et d’inquiétude. Il consiste en près de 900 pages de recommandations visant à renforcer le pouvoir présidentiel et à réduire l’autonomie des contre-pouvoirs institutionnels – notamment le Congrès, la « bureaucratie » fédérale et certaines instances judiciaires.

La plupart des observateurs l’avaient lu comme une déclaration d’intentions, une sorte de catalogue des rêves de l’aile la plus extrême des conservateurs. Peu imaginaient qu’il puisse devenir un véritable plan d’action gouvernementale.

En France comme en Europe, le Project 2025 reste presque inconnu. Le débat public retient davantage les outrances de Donald Trump que les textes programmatiques qui structurent son action. Or, depuis le début du second mandat de ce dernier, ce document s’impose en coulisses comme une feuille de route opérationnelle. Il ne s’agit plus d’un manifeste théorique, mais d’un manuel de gouvernement, conçu par l’un des think tanks les plus influents de Washington, déjà célèbre pour avoir fourni à Ronald Reagan une grande partie de son programme économique et sécuritaire, dans les années 1980.

Du texte à la pratique : des décisions qui ne doivent rien au hasard

Le bras de fer entre Donald Trump et plusieurs gouverneurs démocrates, de la Californie à l’Illinois, a déjà montré que la Maison Blanche est prête à employer la force fédérale à l’intérieur du pays. Mais ce n’est qu’un aspect d’un mouvement plus vaste.

Ainsi, l’administration a récemment qualifié Tren de Aragua, une organisation criminelle vénézuélienne, de « combattants illégaux ». En invoquant le Alien Enemies Act de 1798, rarement mobilisé, Donald Trump a transformé une organisation criminelle transnationale en adversaire militaire à traiter non plus comme un réseau mafieux, mais comme une force armée hostile. Ce glissement conceptuel, déjà prévu par le Project 2025, brouille volontairement la frontière entre sécurité intérieure et guerre extérieure.

Cette orientation trouve également son incarnation dans une figure clé du trumpisme : Stephen Miller. Chef de cabinet adjoint chargé de la politique à la Maison Blanche, celui-ci pilote les orientations actuelles en matière d’immigration. Dans ses discours, il n’hésite pas à qualifier le Parti démocrate d’« organisation extrémiste », désignant ainsi l’opposition politique comme une « menace intérieure ». Cette rhétorique illustre les principes du Project 2025 : un exécutif tout-puissant et une présidence qui assimile ses opposants à des ennemis.

Au-delà des axes déjà évoqués, l’administration Trump a engagé une multitude d’autres efforts inspirés du Project 2025, trop nombreux pour qu’il soit possible ici d’en rendre compte de manière exhaustive. Citons-en toutefois certains, qui illustrent la diversité des chantiers ouverts.

Dans le domaine éducatif, l’Executive Order 14191 a redéfini l’usage de plusieurs programmes fédéraux afin d’orienter une partie des financements vers l’école privée, confessionnelle ou « à charte ». En parallèle, l’Executive Order 14190 a imposé un réexamen des contenus jugés « radicaux » ou « idéologiques ». Ces mesures s’inscrivent dans une perspective plus large explicitement évoquée dans Project 2025 : la réduction drastique du rôle fédéral en matière d’éducation, jusqu’à l’élimination pure et simple, à terme, du Department of Education.

Dans le champ des politiques de santé reproductive, l’Executive Order 14182 est venu renforcer l’application de l’amendement Hyde, en interdisant explicitement toute utilisation de fonds fédéraux pour financer l’avortement, tandis que la réintroduction de la Mexico City Policy a coupé le financement d’organisations non gouvernementales étrangères facilitant ou promouvant l’avortement.

L’administration a également ordonné à la Food and Drug Administration (FDA, l’administration chargée de la surveillance des produits alimentaires et des médicaments) de réévaluer l’encadrement de la pilule abortive et a révoqué les lignes directrices de l’Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA) qui protégeaient l’accès à l’avortement d’urgence dans les hôpitaux.

Par ailleurs, plusieurs décrets présidentiels – tels que l’Executive Order 14168 proclamant le « retour à la vérité biologique » dans l’administration fédérale, ou l’Executive Order 14187 qui interdit le financement fédéral des transitions de genre pour les mineurs – témoignent d’une volonté de redéfinir en profondeur les normes juridiques et administratives autour du genre et de la sexualité.

Enfin, au plan institutionnel, la Maison Blanche a imposé des gels budgétaires et des réductions de programmes qui s’inscrivent dans une stratégie de recentralisation du pouvoir exécutif et de mise au pas de la bureaucratie fédérale.

Des relais stratégiques et une duplicité assumée

Derrière Donald Trump, plusieurs figures issues des cercles conservateurs les plus structurés œuvrent à traduire Project 2025 en pratique. Le plus emblématique est Russ Vought, directeur de l’Office of Management and Budget lors du premier mandat de Donald Trump, poste qu’il a retrouvé lors du second mandat, et l’un des principaux architectes du document.

Lors de son audition de confirmation, plusieurs sénateurs l’ont présenté comme le stratège du projet et l’ont pressé de dire s’il comptait appliquer ce programme au gouvernement fédéral. Vought a soigneusement évité de s’y engager, affirmant qu’il suivrait la loi et les priorités présidentielles. Pourtant, ses initiatives depuis son retour à la Maison Blanche – notamment en matière de réorganisation administrative – reprennent directement les recommandations du manuel.

Capture d’écran d’une vidéo générée par IA, postée par Donald Trump sur son compte Truth Social, où Russ Vought est présenté comme « The Reaper » (« le Faucheur », en référence à la Grande Faucheuse, c’est-à-dire une allégorie de la Mort) qui détruit impitoyablement l’administration fédérale.
Compte de Donald Trump sur Truth Social

Un scénario similaire s’est joué avec d’autres nominations. Paul Atkins, nommé à la tête de la Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, l’organisme fédéral de réglementation et de contrôle des marchés financiers), a été interrogé en mars 2025 sur sa participation au chapitre du projet appelant à la suppression d’une agence de supervision comptable créée après le scandale Enron (la Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, PCAOB). Devant les sénateurs, Atkins a botté en touche, affirmant qu’il respecterait la décision du Congrès. Mais une fois en poste, il a engagé une révision conforme aux orientations du texte.

Cette duplicité illustre une méthode désormais systématique : nier tout lien pour franchir l’étape de la confirmation puis, une fois aux affaires, appliquer les prescriptions idéologiques préparées en amont.

Un modèle pour les populistes européens ?

Le Project 2025 n’est plus un manifeste idéologique mais une feuille de route appliquée par l’équipe au pouvoir. Porté par l’Heritage Foundation et incarné par Vought et Miller, il structure désormais la pratique présidentielle : renforcement sans précédent de l’exécutif, militarisation de la sécurité intérieure, délégitimation de l’opposition. Cette orientation réduit l’emprise des contre-pouvoirs et accélère le basculement autoritaire des États-Unis.

Ce qui se joue à Washington dépasse les frontières états-uniennes. Car ce modèle assumant la confrontation avec ses opposants constitue un précédent séduisant pour les populistes européens. Ceux-ci disposent désormais d’une vitrine : la démonstration qu’une démocratie peut être reconfigurée par un projet idéologique préparé de longue date, puis appliqué une fois au pouvoir. La question demeure : combien de temps les contre-pouvoirs, aux États-Unis comme en Europe, pourront-ils résister à cette tentation autoritaire ?

The Conversation

Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. « Project 2025 » : le manuel secret de Trump prend vie – https://theconversation.com/project-2025-le-manuel-secret-de-trump-prend-vie-267186