To better detect chemical weapons, materials scientists are exploring new technologies

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Olamilekan Joseph Ibukun, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Chemistry, Washington University in St. Louis

German troops make their way through a cloud of smoke or gas during a gas training drill, circa 1916. Henry Guttmann/Hulton Archive via Getty Images

Chemical warfare is one of the most devastating forms of conflict. It leverages toxic chemicals to disable, harm or kill without any physical confrontation. Across various conflicts, it has caused tens of thousands of deaths and affected over a million people through injury and long-term health consequences.

Mustard gas is a class of chemical that isn’t a gas at room temperature – it’s a yellow-brown oily liquid that can vaporize into a toxic mist. Viktor Meyer refined the synthesis of mustard into a more stable form. Mustard gas gained international notoriety during World War I and has been used as a weapon many times.

A vintage photograph of a soldier poking a cylinder, which releases a cloud of smoke.
German soldiers release poison gas from cylinders during World War I.
Henry Guttmann Collection/Hulton Archive via Getty Images

It is nearly impossible to guarantee that mustard gas will never be used in the future, so the best way to prepare for the possibility is to develop a very easy way to detect it in the field.

My colleagues and I, who are chemists and materials science researchers, are keen on developing a rapid, easy and reliable way to detect toxic chemicals in the environment. But doing so will require overcoming several technological challenges.

Effects on human health and communities

Mustard gas damages the body at the cellular level. When it comes into contact with the skin or eyes or is inhaled, it dissolves easily in fats and tissues and quickly penetrates the body. Once inside the body, it changes into a highly reactive form that attaches to and damages DNA, proteins and other essential parts of cells. Once it reacts with DNA, the damage can’t be undone – it may stop cells from functioning properly and kill them.

Mustard gas exposure can trigger large, fluid-filled blisters on the skin. It can also severely irritate the eyes, leading to redness, swelling and even permanent blindness. When inhaled, it burns the lining of the airways, leading to coughing, difficulty breathing and long-term lung damage. Symptoms often don’t appear for several hours, which delays treatment.

Four photos of people holding out their forearms, which have large blisters.
The forearms of test subjects exposed to nitrogen mustard and lewisite, chemicals that cause large, fluid-filled blisters on the skin.
Naval Research Laboratory

Even small exposures can cause serious health problems. Over time, it can weaken the immune system and has been linked to an increased risk of cancers due to its effects on DNA.

The effect of just one-time exposure carries down to the next generation. For example, studies have reported physical abnormalities and disorders in the children of men who were exposed to mustard gas, while some of the men became infertile.

The best way to prevent serious health problems is to detect mustard gas early and keep people away from it.

Detecting mustard gas early

The current methods to detect mustard gas rely on sophisticated chemistry techniques. These require expensive, delicate instruments that are difficult to carry to the war front and are too fragile to be kept in the field as a tool for detecting toxic chemicals. These instruments are conventionally designed for the laboratory, where they stay in one location and are handled carefully.

Many researchers have attempted to improve detection techniques. While each offers a glimpse of hope, they also come with setbacks.

Some scientists have been working on a wearable electrochemical biosensor that could detect mustard gas in both liquid and vapor form. They succeeded in developing tiny devices that provide real-time alerts. But here, stability became a problem. The enzymes degrade, and environmental noise can cloud the signal. Because of this issue, these strips haven’t been used successfully in the field.

To simplify detection, others developed molecularly imprinted polymer test strips targeting thiodiglycol, a mustard gas breakdown product. These strips change color when they come into contact with the gas, and they’re cheap, portable and easy to use in the field. The main concern is that they detect a chemical present in the aftermath of mustard gas use, not the agent itself, which isn’t quite as effective.

One of the most promising breakthroughs came in 2023 in the form of fluorescent probes, which change color when they sense the chemical. This probe is a tiny detective tool that detects or measures the target chemical and generates a signal. But these probes remain vulnerable to environmental interference such as humidity and temperature, meaning they’re less reliable in rugged field conditions.

Some other examples under development include a chemical sensor device that families could have at home, or even a wearable device.

Wearable devices are tricky, however, since they need to be small. Researchers have been trying to integrate tiny nanomaterials into sensors. Other teams are looking at how to incorporate artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence could help a device interpret data faster and respond more quickly.

Researchers bridging the gap

Now at Washington University in St Louis, Makenzie Walk and I are part of the team of researchers working on detecting these chemicals, led by Jennifer Heemstra and M.G. Finn. Another member is Seth Taylor, a postdoctoral researcher at Georgia Tech.

Our team of researchers hopes to use the lessons learned from prior sensors to develop an easy and reliable way to rapidly detect these chemicals in the field. Our approach will involve testing different molecular sensor designs on compounds modeled after specific chemical weapons. The sensors would initiate a cascade of reactions that generate a bright, colorful fluorescent signal in the laboratory.

We are figuring out to which compounds these chemicals react best, and which might make a good candidate for use in a detector. These tests allow us to determine how much of the chemical will need to be in the air to trigger a reaction that we can detect, as well as how long it will need to be in the air before we can detect it.

Additionally, we are investigating how the structure of the chemicals we work with influences how they react. Some react more quickly than others, and understanding their behavior will help us pick the right compounds for our detector. We want them to be sensitive enough to detect even small amounts of mustard gas quickly, but not so sensitive that they frequently give falsely positive results.

Eliminating the use of these chemicals would be the best approach to avoid future recurrence. The 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention bans the production, use and accumulation of chemical weapons. But countries such as Egypt, North Korea and South Sudan have not signed or officially adopted the international arms control treaty.

To discourage countries that don’t sign the treaty from using these weapons, other countries can use sanctions. For example, the U.S. learned that Sudan used chemical weapons in 2024 during a conflict, and in response it placed sanctions on the government.

Even without continued use of these chemical weapons, some traces of the chemical may still linger in the environment. Technology that can quickly identify the chemical threat in the environment could prevent more disasters from occurring.

As scientists and global leaders collectively strive for a safer world, the ability to detect when a dangerous chemical is released or is present in real time will improve a community’s preparedness, protection and peace of mind.

The Conversation

Mekenzie Walk and Jen Heemstra contributed to this article.

Heemstra lab receives funding from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).

ref. To better detect chemical weapons, materials scientists are exploring new technologies – https://theconversation.com/to-better-detect-chemical-weapons-materials-scientists-are-exploring-new-technologies-257296

Séisme au Kamtchatka : que sait-on de l’un des dix plus puissants tremblements de terre jamais enregistrés ?

Source: The Conversation – France in French (2) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

Mercredi 30 juillet vers 11 h 30 heure locale, un séisme de magnitude 8,8 a frappé la côte de la péninsule du Kamtchatka à l’extrême est de la Russie. La région est le siège d’une activité sismique depuis plusieurs mois, et des dizaines de répliques ont déjà eu lieu autour de ce séisme. Des alertes au tsunami ont été lancées rapidement tout autour du Pacifique – et certaines ont déjà pu être levées.


Avec une profondeur d’environ 20 kilomètres, ce puissant séisme, qui figure parmi les dix plus forts jamais enregistrés et le plus important au monde depuis 2011, a causé des dégâts matériels et fait des blessés dans la plus grande ville voisine, Petropavlovsk-Kamtchatski, située à seulement 119 kilomètres de l’épicentre.

Des alertes au tsunami et des évacuations ont été déclenchées en Russie, au Japon et à Hawaï, et des avis ont été émis pour les Philippines, l’Indonésie et même la Nouvelle-Zélande et le Pérou.

Toute la région du Pacifique est très exposée à des séismes puissants et aux tsunamis qui en résultent, car elle est située dans la « ceinture de feu », une zone d’activité sismique et volcanique intense. Les dix séismes les plus puissants jamais enregistrés dans l’histoire moderne se sont tous produits dans la ceinture de feu.

Voici pourquoi la tectonique des plaques rend cette partie du monde si instable.

Pourquoi le Kamtchatka est-il touché par des séismes aussi violents ?

Au large de la péninsule du Kamtchatka se trouve la fosse des Kouriles, une frontière tectonique où la plaque Pacifique est poussée sous la plaque d’Okhotsk.

Alors que les plaques tectoniques se déplacent continuellement les unes par rapport aux autres, l’interface entre les plaques tectoniques est souvent « bloquée ». La tension liée au mouvement des plaques s’accumule jusqu’à dépasser la résistance de l’interface, puis se libère sous la forme d’une rupture soudaine : un séisme.

En raison de la grande superficie de l’interface aux frontières des plaques, tant en longueur qu’en profondeur, la rupture peut s’étendre sur de vastes zones à la frontière des plaques. Cela donne lieu à certains des séismes les plus importants et potentiellement les plus destructeurs au monde.

Un autre facteur qui influe sur la fréquence et l’intensité des séismes dans les zones de subduction est la vitesse à laquelle les deux plaques se déplacent l’une par rapport à l’autre.

Dans le cas du Kamtchatka, la plaque Pacifique se déplace à environ 75 millimètres par an par rapport à la plaque d’Okhotsk. Il s’agit d’une vitesse relativement élevée pour des plaques tectoniques, ce qui explique que les séismes y sont plus fréquents que dans d’autres zones de subduction. En 1952, un séisme de magnitude 9,0 s’est produit dans la même zone de subduction, à environ 30 kilomètres seulement du séisme de magnitude 8,8 d’aujourd’hui.

Parmi les autres exemples de séismes à la frontière d’une plaque en subduction, on peut citer le séisme de magnitude 9,1 qui a frappé la région de Tohoku au Japon en 2011 et le séisme de magnitude 9,3 qui a frappé Sumatra et les îles Andaman en Indonésie le 26 décembre 2004. Ces deux séismes ont débuté à une profondeur relativement faible et ont provoqué une rupture de la limite des plaques jusqu’à la surface.

Ils ont soulevé un côté du fond marin par rapport à l’autre, déplaçant toute la colonne d’eau de l’océan située au-dessus et provoquant des tsunamis dévastateurs. Dans le cas du séisme de Sumatra, la rupture du fond marin s’est produite sur une longueur d’environ 1 400 kilomètres.

Que va-t-il se passer maintenant ?

Au moment où nous écrivons ces lignes, environ six heures après le séisme, 35 répliques d’une magnitude supérieure à 5,0 ont déjà été enregistrées, selon le service de surveillance sismique états-unien (l’United States Geological Survey, USGS).

Les répliques se produisent lorsque les tensions dans la croûte terrestre se redistribuent après le séisme principal. Elles sont souvent d’une magnitude inférieure d’un point à celle du séisme principal. Dans le cas du séisme d’aujourd’hui, cela signifie que des répliques d’une magnitude supérieure à 7,5 sont possibles.




À lire aussi :
Pourquoi il y a des séismes en cascade en Turquie et en Syrie


Pour un séisme de cette ampleur, les répliques peuvent se poursuivre pendant des semaines, voire des mois, mais leur magnitude et leur fréquence diminuent généralement avec le temps.

Le séisme d’aujourd’hui a également provoqué un tsunami qui a déjà touché les communautés côtières de la péninsule du Kamtchatka, des îles Kouriles, et d’Hokkaido au Japon.

Au cours des prochaines heures, le tsunami se propagera à travers le Pacifique, atteignant Hawaï environ six heures après le séisme et se poursuivant jusqu’au Chili et au Pérou. [ndlt : à l’heure où nous effectuons cette traduction, les alertes à Hawaï ont été réduites, et annulées aux Philippines. Les vagues ont atteint la côte ouest des États-Unis, jusqu’à un mètre de hauteur en Californie et dans l’Oregon.]

Les spécialistes des tsunamis continueront d’affiner leurs modèles des effets du tsunami au fur et à mesure de sa propagation, et les autorités de la protection civile fourniront des conseils faisant autorité sur les effets locaux attendus.




À lire aussi :
Alertes aux séismes et tsunamis : comment gagner de précieuses secondes


Quelles leçons peut-on tirer de ce séisme pour d’autres régions du monde ?

Heureusement, les séismes d’une telle ampleur sont rares. Cependant, leurs effets au niveau local et à l’échelle mondiale peuvent être dévastateurs.

Outre sa magnitude, plusieurs aspects du séisme qui a frappé le Kamtchatka aujourd’hui en feront un sujet de recherche particulièrement important.

Par exemple, la région a connu une activité sismique très intense ces derniers mois et un séisme de magnitude 7,4 s’est produit le 20 juillet. L’influence de cette activité antérieure sur la localisation et le moment du séisme d’aujourd’hui sera un élément crucial de ces recherches.

Tout comme le Kamtchatka et le nord du Japon, la Nouvelle-Zélande est située au-dessus d’une zone de subduction, et même de deux zones de subduction. La plus grande, la zone de subduction de Hikurangi, s’étend au large de la côte est de l’île du Nord.

D’après les caractéristiques de cette interface tectonique et les archives géologiques des séismes passés, la zone de subduction de Hikurangi est susceptible de produire des séismes de magnitude 9. Cela ne s’est jamais produit dans l’histoire, mais si cela arrivait, cela provoquerait un tsunami.

La menace d’un séisme majeur dans une zone de subduction n’est jamais écartée. Le séisme qui s’est produit aujourd’hui au Kamtchatka est un rappel important pour tous ceux qui vivent dans des zones sismiques de rester prudents et de tenir compte des avertissements des autorités de protection civile.

The Conversation

Dee Ninis travaille au Seismology Research Centre, est vice-présidente de l’Australian Earthquake Engineering Society et membre du comité de la Geological Society of Australia – Victoria Division.

John Townend reçoit des financements des fonds Marsden et Catalyst de la Royal Society Te Apārangi, de la Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake et du ministère néo-zélandais des Entreprises, de l’Innovation et de l’Emploi. Il est ancien président et directeur de la Seismological Society of America ainsi que président de la New Zealand Geophysical Society.

ref. Séisme au Kamtchatka : que sait-on de l’un des dix plus puissants tremblements de terre jamais enregistrés ? – https://theconversation.com/seisme-au-kamtchatka-que-sait-on-de-lun-des-dix-plus-puissants-tremblements-de-terre-jamais-enregistres-262251

More than 50% of Detroit students regularly miss class – and schools alone can’t solve the problem

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeremy Singer, Assistant Professor of Education, Wayne State University

Nobody learns in an empty classroom. Jeffrey Basinger/Newsday RM via Getty Images

Thousands of K-12 students in Detroit consistently miss days of school.

Chronic absenteeism is defined as missing at least 10% of school days – or 18 in a 180-day academic year. In Detroit, chronic absenteeism rose during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains a persistent challenge.

To encourage attendance, the Detroit Public Schools Community District is getting creative. This past year, Michigan’s largest school district awarded US$200 gift cards to nearly 5,000 high schoolers for attending all their classes during a two-week period, and Superintendent Nikolai Vitti also floated the idea of providing bikes to help students get to class. Some district students lack access to reliable transportation.

To understand the consequences of kids regularly missing school, The Conversation U.S. spoke with Sarah Lenhoff, associate professor of education at Wayne State University and director of the Detroit Partnership for Education Equity & Research, an education-focused research collaborative, and Jeremy Singer, an assistant professor of education at Wayne State University. Lenhoff and Singer wrote a book published in March about the socioeconomic drivers of chronic absenteeism in K-12 schools and how policymakers and communities, not just educators, can help.

Is chronic absenteeism the same as truancy?

No. Truancy is how schools have thought about and dealt with student attendance problems since the early days of public education in the United States in the 19th century and is still defined in state law across the country. It focuses on “unexcused” absences and compliance with mandatory school attendance laws. By contrast, chronic absenteeism includes any absence – whether “excused” or “unexcused” – because each absence can be consequential for student learning and development.

Chronic absenteeism is usually defined as missing 10% or more school days. The 10% threshold is somewhat arbitrary, since researchers know that the consequences of missing school accumulate with each day missed. But the specific definition of chronic absenteeism has been solidified in research and by policymakers. Most states now include a measure of chronic absenteeism in their education accountability systems.

How big of a problem is chronic absenteeism in Detroit’s K-12 public schools?

Detroit has among the highest chronic absenteeism rates in the country: more than 50% in recent school years. Prior to the pandemic, the average rate of chronic absenteeism nationwide was about 15%, and it was around 24% in 2024.

In one of our prior studies, we found Detroit’s chronic absenteeism rate was much higher than other major cities – even others with high absenteeism rates such as Milwaukee or Philadelphia.

This is related to the depth of social and economic inequalities that Detroit families face. Compared to other major cities, Detroit has higher rates of poverty, unemployment and crime. It has worse public health conditions. And even its winters are some of the coldest of major U.S. cities. All of these factors make it harder for kids to attend school.

Rates of chronic absenteeism spiked in Detroit during the COVID-19 pandemic, as they did statewide. The Detroit Public Schools Community District has come close to returning to its pre-pandemic levels of absenteeism. The rates were 66% in the 2023-24 school year compared to 62% in the school year right before the pandemic began, 2018-19.

Detroit’s charter schools have struggled more to bring down their chronic absenteeism rates post-pandemic, but the numbers are lower overall – 54% in the 2023-24 school year compared to 36% in 2018-19.

A Black woman wearing a red T-shirt and sunglasses holds up a sign reading 'OUR FIGHT FOR DETROIT KIDS'
A school social worker from Noble Elementary-Middle School protests outside Detroit Public Schools headquarters.
Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

How does missing school affect students?

The connection between attendance and achievement is clear: Students who miss more school on average score worse on reading and math tests. As early as pre-K, being chronically absent is linked to lower levels of school readiness, both academically and behaviorally. By high school, students who miss more school tend to earn lower grades and GPAs and are less likely to graduate.

And it’s not just the absent students who are affected. When more kids in a class miss school regularly, that is associated with lower overall test scores and worse measures of skills such as executive functioning for other students in that class.

Does chronic absenteeism vary by family income or other factors?

Rates of chronic absenteeism are much higher among students from low-income families. In these cases, absenteeism is often driven by factors outside a student’s control such as unstable housing, unreliable transportation, health issues, lack of access to child care, or parents who work nontraditional hours. These challenges make it harder for students to get to school consistently, even when families are deeply committed to education.

School-based factors also influence attendance. Students are more likely to be chronically absent in schools with weaker relationships with families or a less positive school culture. However, even schools with strong practices may struggle if they serve communities facing deep socioeconomic hardship.

Ultimately, we don’t view chronic absenteeism as an issue of student motivation or family values. Rather, we see it as an issue related to the unequal conditions that shape students’ lives.

Does punishing absent kids or their parents work?

Many schools have suspended students for absences, or threatened their parents with fines or jail time. In some cases, families have lost social services due to their children’s chronic absenteeism.

Research shows these strategies are not only ineffective, they can make the problem worse.

For example, we found that when schools respond with punishment instead of support, they often alienate the very students and families who are already struggling to stay connected. Harsh responses can deepen mistrust between families and schools. When absences are treated as a personal failing caused by a lack of motivation or irresponsibility rather than symptoms of deeper challenges, students and parents may disengage further.

Instead, educators might ask: What’s getting in the way of consistent attendance, and how can we help? That shift from blame to understanding can help improve attendance.

What can policymakers, school districts and community organizations do to reduce chronic absenteeism?

Chronic absenteeism is a societal issue, not just a school problem. In other words, we need to recognize that chronic absenteeism is not a problem that schools can solve alone. While educators work to improve conditions within schools, policymakers and community leaders can take responsibility for the broader factors that influence attendance.

This could look like investing more resources and fostering collaboration across sectors such as health care, housing, transportation and social services to better support students and their families. Community organizations can play a role too, offering wraparound services such as mental health care, access to transportation, and after-school programming, all of which can support families. In the meantime, educators can focus on what they can control: strengthening communication with families, building supportive relationships and helping families connect with existing services that can remove attendance barriers.

The Conversation

Sarah Lenhoff receives funding from the Skillman Foundation, the Joyce Foundation, the Kresge Foundation, the William T. Grant Foundation, the American Institutes for Research, and the Urban Institute.

Jeremy Singer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. More than 50% of Detroit students regularly miss class – and schools alone can’t solve the problem – https://theconversation.com/more-than-50-of-detroit-students-regularly-miss-class-and-schools-alone-cant-solve-the-problem-260773

El precio de la sumisión: España paga la debilidad de Bruselas ante EE. UU.

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Armando Alvares Garcia Júnior, Professor de Direito Internacional e Relações Internacionais, UNIR – Universidad Internacional de La Rioja

El sector del aceite de oliva será uno de los más afectados por el acuerdo. BearFotos/Shutterstock

El acuerdo comercial firmado entre Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea, lejos de representar un éxito diplomático para Bruselas, revela la profunda crisis de liderazgo y de visión estratégica de la Comisión Europea. Bajo la presión de la Administración Trump, la UE ha cedido en aspectos fundamentales, consolidando una relación profundamente desigual que erosiona tanto la competitividad como la soberanía de los Estados miembros.

España se convierte, una vez más, en un ejemplo paradigmático de los costes de una negociación mal gestionada y de la desconexión de las élites europeas respecto a los intereses reales de sus ciudadanos y sectores productivos.

El corazón del pacto, sellado en Turnberry (Escocia) el domingo 27 de julio de 2025, es la imposición de un arancel general del 15 % a las exportaciones europeas a Estados Unidos. Este nivel, muy por encima del 1,4 % medio vigente antes de la escalada comercial abierta oficialmente por la Casa Blanca el 2 de abril de 2025, constituye una penalización directa a la industria, la agricultura y la tecnología europea, y no encuentra correspondencia en las importaciones de productos estadounidenses, que quedan libres de cualquier restricción equivalente.

La Comisión, en lugar de defender con firmeza el principio de reciprocidad, ha preferido instalarse en el “mal menor”, justificando su decisión en la supuesta amenaza de una guerra comercial abierta que, según Bruselas, traería consecuencias devastadoras para el empleo y el crecimiento.

Esta postura resignada transmite una preocupante falta de ambición y debilita la posición negociadora de la UE ante futuras rondas con Washington u otros bloques.

Un golpe al tejido productivo español

En España, el acuerdo golpea de manera directa al tejido productivo más dinámico y estratégico. El sector agroalimentario, con el aceite de oliva y el vino a la cabeza, verá encarecidos sus productos en el mercado estadounidense, con riesgo real de pérdida de cuota y cierre de empresas exportadoras.

Organizaciones empresariales como la Federación Española de Industrias de Alimentación y Bebidas han calificado la medida de “imposición injusta y desequilibrada”, alertando del peligro que supone para miles de empleos y para el equilibrio de la balanza comercial.

España, que ya mantiene un déficit comercial con EE. UU., pierde cualquier capacidad de compensar este golpe a través de otros mercados, en un contexto global marcado por el proteccionismo y la rivalidad de potencias.

Golpe al vino y al aceite de oliva

La industria vinícola calcula que el nuevo arancel puede reducir las ventas en Estados Unidos hasta un 10 %, justo cuando la competencia internacional es más intensa y el margen de maniobra para pequeñas y medianas empresas es mínimo.

El sector del aceite de oliva, del que España es líder mundial, se enfrenta a un escenario similar: más de mil millones de euros en exportaciones en juego y ningún mecanismo de apoyo efectivo por parte de Bruselas, a pesar de su esperpéntico documento de autobombo.

El pacto va mucho más allá del simple intercambio de bienes. La Comisión Europea ha aceptado un compromiso masivo de compras de energía estadounidense –gas natural, petróleo y combustible nuclear– por valor de 640 000 millones de euros en el periodo 2025-2028. Esta decisión, presentada como un paso hacia la independencia de las materias primas rusas, en realidad supone una transferencia de dependencia y una renuncia explícita a la diversificación de proveedores.

La Comisión tampoco ha defendido la industria de defensa europea, comprometiendo inversiones y adquisiciones de armamento estadounidense sin transparencia ni debate democrático real sobre los términos y la conveniencia estratégica de estas compras.

Críticas y desconfianza de los ciudadanos

El acuerdo ha desatado críticas en todo el continente, no solo entre los países más afectados, sino también en los principales aliados de Bruselas. La tibieza de la defensa institucional, la falta de transparencia y el desdén por los intereses de la industria europea están alimentando la creciente desconfianza de los ciudadanos y reforzando el escepticismo ante el proyecto comunitario.

Las justificaciones de la Comisión, basadas en evitar una guerra comercial a cualquier precio, no resisten el análisis cuando el coste real es una pérdida sostenida de autonomía, empleo y capacidad de influencia.

La gestión de este acuerdo evidencia las carencias de la actual Comisión Europea en materia de liderazgo, defensa de intereses estratégicos y conexión con las necesidades reales de la economía europea.

La renuncia a exigir reciprocidad, el sacrificio de sectores clave y la aceptación de una nueva dependencia –energética y militar– confirman un retroceso preocupante. España, como otros Estados miembros, paga un precio alto por la resignación de Bruselas, y el conjunto del continente enfrenta el riesgo de una década perdida en autonomía y competitividad si no se recupera la ambición y la firmeza en la defensa de sus intereses.

The Conversation

Armando Alvares Garcia Júnior no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. El precio de la sumisión: España paga la debilidad de Bruselas ante EE. UU. – https://theconversation.com/el-precio-de-la-sumision-espana-paga-la-debilidad-de-bruselas-ante-ee-uu-262172

El terremoto de Kamchatka figura entre los diez más fuertes jamás registrados: esto es lo que tienen en común

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

El terremoto de magnitud 8,8 que sacudió la costa de la península de Kamchatka, en el extremo oriental de Rusia, es uno de los diez más fuertes de la historia y el mayor del mundo desde 2011. Este seísmo ha causado daños en edificios y heridos en la ciudad más grande cercana, Petropávlovsk-Kamchatski, a solo 119 kilómetros del epicentro.

Las alertas de tsunami y las evacuaciones han resonado en Rusia, Japón y Hawái, y se han emitido avisos para Filipinas, Indonesia y lugares tan lejanos como Nueva Zelanda y Perú.

La región del Pacífico es muy propensa a sufrir terremotos de gran intensidad y los tsunamis que estos provocan, ya que se encuentra en el llamado Cinturón de Fuego, una zona de elevada actividad sísmica y volcánica. Los diez terremotos más potentes registrados en la historia moderna se produjeron en esa región.

He aquí por qué la estructura subyacente de nuestro planeta hace que esta parte del mundo sea tan inestable.

¿Por qué se producen terremotos tan fuertes en Kamchatka?

Justo frente a la costa de la península de Kamchatka se encuentra la fosa de Kuril-Kamchatka, un límite de placas tectónicas donde la placa del Pacífico empuja bajo la placa de Okhotsk.

Mientras que las placas tectónicas se mueven continuamente unas respecto a otras, la interconexión entre ellas suele estar “atascada”. La tensión se acumula hasta que supera la resistencia de dicha zona de contacto, momento en el que se libera en forma de ruptura repentina: se produce un terremoto.

Debido a las grandes extensiones de los puntos de contacto en los límites de las placas, tanto en longitud como en profundidad, la ruptura puede abarcar grandes áreas. Esto da lugar a algunos de los terremotos más grandes y potencialmente destructivos de la Tierra.

Otro factor que influye en la frecuencia y la magnitud de los terremotos en las zonas de subducción es la velocidad a la que se mueven las dos placas entre sí.

En el caso de Kamchatka, la placa del Pacífico se mueve a aproximadamente 75 milímetros por año con respecto a la de Okhotsk. Se trata de una velocidad relativamente alta para los estándares tectónicos, lo que provoca que los grandes terremotos sean más frecuentes aquí que en otras zonas de subducción. En 1952, se produjo un terremoto de magnitud 9,0 en la misma zona de subducción, a solo unos 30 kilómetros del terremoto de magnitud 8,8 producido hoy.

Otros ejemplos de terremotos en límites de placas de subducción son el terremoto de magnitud 9,1 de Tohoku-Oki (Japón) de 2011 y el terremoto de magnitud 9,3 de Sumatra-Andaman Indonesia, ocurrido en 2004. Ambos se iniciaron a una profundidad relativamente baja y rompieron el límite de la placa hasta la superficie.

Elevaron un lado del lecho marino con respecto al otro, desplazando el océano que se encontraba sobre él y provocando devastadores tsunamis. En el caso del terremoto del 26 de diciembre de 2004, la ruptura del lecho marino se produjo a lo largo de unos 1400 km.

¿Qué es probable que suceda a continuación?

En el momento de redactar este artículo, aproximadamente seis horas después del terremoto, ya se han producido 35 réplicas de magnitud superior a 5,0, según el Servicio Geológico de los Estados Unidos.

Las réplicas se producen cuando la tensión dentro de la corteza terrestre se redistribuye tras el terremoto principal. A menudo son de una magnitud inferior a la del seísmo principal. En el caso del terremoto de hoy, eso significa que son posibles réplicas de magnitud superior a 7,5.

En un terremoto de esta magnitud, las réplicas pueden continuar durante semanas o meses, pero normalmente disminuyen en magnitud y frecuencia con el tiempo.

El seísmo de hoy también ha provocado un tsunami que ya ha afectado a las comunidades costeras de la península de Kamchatka, las islas Kuriles y Hokkaido, en Japón.

En las próximas horas, ese tsunami se propagará por el Pacífico, llegando a Hawái aproximadamente seis horas después del terremoto y continuando hasta Chile y Perú.

Los científicos especializados en tsunamis seguirán perfeccionando sus modelos de sus efectos a medida que se propague, y las autoridades de defensa civil proporcionarán información oficial sobre los efectos locales previstos.

¿Qué lecciones se pueden extraer de este terremoto para otras partes del mundo?

Afortunadamente, terremotos tan grandes como el de hoy son poco frecuentes. Sin embargo, sus efectos a nivel local y en todo el mundo pueden ser devastadores.

Aparte de su magnitud, varios aspectos del terremoto de hoy en Kamchatka lo convertirán en un foco de investigación especialmente importante.

Por ejemplo, la zona ha sido muy activa sísmicamente en los últimos meses, y el 20 de julio se produjo un terremoto de magnitud 7,4. La forma en que esta actividad previa ha afectado a la ubicación y el momento del evento de hoy será un aspecto crucial de la investigación.

Al igual que Kamchatka y el norte de Japón, Nueva Zelanda también se encuentra sobre una zona de subducción; de hecho, sobre dos zonas de subducción. La mayor de ellas, la zona de subducción de Hikurangi, se extiende mar adentro a lo largo de la costa este de la isla Norte.

Según las características de estos puntos de contacto entre placas y los registros geológicos de terremotos pasados, es probable que la zona de subducción de Hikurangi sea capaz de producir terremotos de magnitud 9. No lo ha hecho en tiempos históricos, pero si ocurriera, provocaría un tsunami.

La amenaza de un gran terremoto en la zona de subducción nunca desaparece. El terremoto de hoy en Kamchatka es un importante recordatorio para todos los que viven en zonas propensas a los terremotos de que deben mantenerse a salvo y prestar atención a las advertencias de las autoridades de defensa civil.

The Conversation

Dee Ninis trabaja en el Centro de Investigación Sismológica, es Vicepresidenta de la Sociedad Australiana de Ingeniería Sísmica y miembro del Comité de la Sociedad Geológica de Australia – División Victoria.

John Townend recibe financiación de los fondos Marsden y Catalyst de la Royal Society Te Apārangi, de la Comisión de Riesgos Naturales Toka Tū Ake y del Ministerio de Empresa, Innovación y Empleo de Nueva Zelanda. Ha sido presidente y director de la Sociedad Sismológica de América y presidente de la Sociedad Geofísica de Nueva Zelanda.

ref. El terremoto de Kamchatka figura entre los diez más fuertes jamás registrados: esto es lo que tienen en común – https://theconversation.com/el-terremoto-de-kamchatka-figura-entre-los-diez-mas-fuertes-jamas-registrados-esto-es-lo-que-tienen-en-comun-262245

Tsunamis: qué altura pueden alcanzar las olas como las generadas por el terremoto en Rusia

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By José Luis González Fernández, Profesor Ayudante Doctor Didáctica de las Matemáticas, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha

Grandes olas en la playa de Garrapata (California) Gustavo Gerdel/Wikimedia commons, CC BY-SA

Las olas han fascinado a la humanidad desde tiempos inmemoriales, tanto por su belleza como por su fuerza destructiva. Hoy, esa dualidad se manifiesta con crudeza tras el terremoto de magnitud 8,8 en Rusia, que ha desatado alertas de tsunami en todo el Pacífico y ha obligado a evacuar a millones de personas. Este tipo de fenómenos nos recuerda que, más allá de su estética, las olas pueden convertirse en fuerzas implacables de la naturaleza.

La ola de un terremoto

El terremoto más potente jamás registrado (terremoto de Valdivia, Chile, 1960) liberó la energía equivalente a 20 000 bombas atómicas de Hiroshima. Tal energía podría provocar un tsunami de solo 4,55 metros de altura en alta mar, pero que podría ascender hasta 1,7 kilómetros en costa. El aumento se debe al llamado efecto shoaling o asomeramiento: las olas aumentan de tamaño al acercarse a la costa.

Sin embargo, el tamaño real fue muchísimo menor (unos 10 metros) ya que el terremoto se produjo en tierra firme y no toda la energía fue a parar a una sola ola. Eso no quiere decir que no fuera destructor: el tsunami atravesó el océano Pacífico, causando la muerte de más de 2 000 personas en Chile, Perú, Hawái y Japón.

Animación de The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) muestra cómo se propagó por el océano Pacífico el tsunami que generó el terremoto de Chile y llegó a Japón.

Donde el viento y la física chocan

En condiciones normales, la mayoría de las olas están generadas por viento. Tienen un ciclo de formación, crecimiento y rompimiento que depende de la velocidad, alcance y duración del viento y la profundidad del agua. Sin embargo, incluso en condiciones óptimas, las olas no pueden crecer indefinidamente.

La física establece una proporción límite entre la altura de una ola y su longitud de onda: cuando esa relación supera 1/7, la ola se vuelve inestable y rompe. Es decir, la cresta se desploma hacia adelante porque ya no puede sostenerse.

Además, hay otro factor clave: la profundidad del agua. A medida que una ola se acerca a la costa, el fondo marino frena su base mientras la cresta sigue avanzando, lo que hace que la onda se incline y eventualmente rompa. En aguas poco profundas, una ola no puede tener una altura mayor a aproximadamente 0,88 veces la profundidad local. Así, en una playa donde el agua tiene 3 metros de profundidad, la ola máxima teórica que podría romper sería de unos 2,64 metros. Este límite es observable y verificable, y se utiliza frecuentemente en ingeniería costera y en predicción de oleajes.

Ambos fenómenos establecen algunos de los límites fundamentales a la altura de las olas en el mar.

Gigantes inesperados: la ola Draupner

Ahora bien, hay ocasiones en que el océano parece desafiar estas reglas. Las llamadas olas extremas o rogue waves (olas monstruo) son eventos poco frecuentes pero muy reales, en los que una ola de tamaño descomunal aparece sin aviso, duplicando o triplicando la altura típica del oleaje circundante.

Una de las más conocidas fue registrada en 1995 por una plataforma petrolera en el mar del Norte: la ola Draupner, que alcanzó los 25,6 metros de altura. Este evento confirmó lo que hasta entonces muchos consideraban un mito marinero. Desde entonces, varios estudios han demostrado que estas olas extremas pueden formarse por la combinación constructiva de múltiples olas, la interacción con corrientes oceánicas, o fenómenos aún en estudio. Sin embargo, en la práctica, su altura no suele superar los 30 metros en mar abierto.

Recreación de la ola Draupner para un documental de la BBC.

Cuando la Tierra crea olas: 520 metros de altura

Más allá de lo que el viento puede generar, existen olas de origen geológico conocidas como megatsunamis. Estas olas se producen por deslizamientos de tierra, colapsos de glaciares o impactos de meteoritos, que desplazan una enorme cantidad de agua de forma repentina.

Un caso dramático ocurrió en la Bahía de Lituya, en Alaska, en 1958. Un sismo de 7,8 grados en la Escala de Richter provocó el desprendimiento de una montaña. Más de 30 millones de metros cúbicos de tierra y piedras cayeron en bloque al agua, desde una altura de 900 metros. El colapso provocó una ola que alcanzó una altura estimada de 524 metros.

fiordo con montañas y lago que muestran donde se desprendión una montaña
Esquema que muestra dónde se produjo el desprendimiento de la montaña que provocó el megatsunami en la bahía de Lituya (Alaska).
Wikimedia commons, CC BY

Este fenómeno, aunque real, fue muy distinto de las olas comunes puesto que no se produjo en el océano. Sólo afectó al fiordo.

La energía necesaria para formar algo similar en mar abierto es tan colosal que solo podría producirse por eventos extraordinarios, como el impacto de un gran asteroide en el océano.

El tamaño de un megatsunami

¿Existe entonces un límite físico al tamaño de un megatsunami? Es difícil responder con exactitud. Pero podemos hacer una estimación sencilla si nos centramos sólo en la energía asociada.

Imaginemos una única “ola” que se desplaza (también llamada solitón u ola solitaria) generada por un terremoto o el impacto de un meteorito. Por simplicidad, obviaremos la fricción, el flujo turbulento y otros factores complejos. La altura que puede alcanzar dependerá de su energía cinética y potencial. Si además conocemos algunos parámetros, como su anchura o velocidad, podremos estimar un valor.

Por tanto, vamos a introducir los datos correspondientes a algunos de los mayores fenómenos creadores de tsunamis conocidos. Así, veremos qué alturas máximas son físicamente posibles. No obstante, es importante tener en mente que sobreestiman los límites reales y muy probablemente nunca sean alcanzados.

La caída de un meteorito

Por otro lado, el meteorito más energético del que tenemos conocimiento, (Chicxulub), conocido popularmente por poner fin a los dinosaurios, liberó la energía equivalente a 67 000 millones de bombas de Hiroshima. Tanta energía podría haber generado una ola de no más de 16 kilómetros en costa, si bien en la literatura se estima que “sólo” habría alcanzado en torno a entre 1 y 3 kilómetros de altura.

No hay olas infinitas

Las olas no pueden crecer indefinidamente. Su altura está limitada por factores como la longitud de onda, la profundidad del agua y la energía disponible.

En mar abierto, las olas generadas por viento difícilmente superan los 30 metros. Más allá de eso, entramos en el terreno de los tsunamis y megatsunamis, que pueden generar olas de cientos de metros, pero dependen de procesos geológicos violentos y muy raros.

En cualquier caso, en la práctica, existe un límite razonable a la altura de las olas que el mar puede ofrecernos.

Podemos ir a la playa sin miedo, siempre, claro, que no vivamos, en estos momentos, en la costa afectada por el efecto del terremoto en Rusia.

The Conversation

Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.

ref. Tsunamis: qué altura pueden alcanzar las olas como las generadas por el terremoto en Rusia – https://theconversation.com/tsunamis-que-altura-pueden-alcanzar-las-olas-como-las-generadas-por-el-terremoto-en-rusia-260535

Emil Bove confirmed – his appeals court nomination echoed earlier controversies, but with a key difference

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Paul M. Collins Jr., Professor of Legal Studies and Political Science, UMass Amherst

Emil Bove, Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as a federal appeals judge for the 3rd Circuit, is sworn in during a confirmation hearing in Washington, D.C., on June 25, 2025. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc, via Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s nomination of his former criminal defense attorney, Emil Bove, to be a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit, was mired in controversy.

On June 24, 2025, Erez Reuveni, a former Department of Justice attorney who worked with Bove, released an extensive, 27-page whistleblower report. Reuveni claimed that Bove, as the Trump administration’s acting deputy attorney general, said “that it might become necessary to tell a court ‘fuck you’” and ignore court orders related to the administration’s immigration policies. Bove’s acting role ended on March 6 when he resumed his current position of principal associate deputy attorney general.

When asked about this statement at his June 25 Senate confirmation hearing, Bove said, “I don’t recall.”

And on July 15, 80 former federal and state judges signed a letter opposing Bove’s nomination. The letter argued that “Mr. Bove’s egregious record of mistreating law enforcement officers, abusing power, and disregarding the law itself disqualifies him for this position.”

A day later, more than 900 former Department of Justice attorneys submitted their own letter opposing Bove’s confirmation. The attorneys argued that “Few actions could undermine the rule of law more than a senior executive branch official flouting another branch’s authority. But that is exactly what Mr. Bove allegedly did through his involvement in DOJ’s defiance of court orders.”

On July 17, Democrats walked out of the Senate Judiciary Committee vote, in protest of the refusal by Chairman Chuck Grassley, a Republican from Iowa, to allow further investigation and debate on the nomination. Republicans on the committee then unanimously voted to move the nomination forward for a full Senate vote.

Late in the evening of July 29, and after two more whistleblower complaints about Bove’s conduct had emerged, the U.S. Senate confirmed Bove’s nomination in a 50-49 vote.

As a scholar of the courts, I know that most federal court appointments are not as controversial as Bove’s nomination. But highly contentious nominations do arise from time to time.

Here’s how three controversial nominations turned out – and how Bove’s nomination was different in a crucial way.

A man smiles and looks toward a microphone with people sitting behind him. All of them are dressed formally.
Robert Bork testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee for his confirmation as associate justice of the Supreme Court in September 1987.
Mark Reinstein/Corbis via Getty Images

Robert Bork

Bork is the only federal court nominee whose name became a verb.

“Borking” is “to attack or defeat (a nominee or candidate for public office) unfairly through an organized campaign of harsh public criticism or vilification,” according to Merriam-Webster.

This refers to Republican President Ronald Reagan’s 1987 appointment of Bork to the Supreme Court.

Reagan called Bork “one of the finest judges in America’s history.” Democrats viewed Bork, a federal appeals court judge, as an ideologically extreme conservative, with their opposition based largely on his extensive scholarly work and opinions on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

In opposing the Bork nomination, Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts took the Senate floor and gave a fiery speech: “Robert Bork’s America is a land in which women would be forced into back-alley abortions, blacks would sit at segregated lunch counters, rogue police could break down citizens’ doors in midnight raids, schoolchildren could not be taught about evolution, writers and artists could be censored at the whim of government, and the doors of the federal courts would be shut on the fingers of millions of citizens for whom the judiciary is often the only protector of the individual rights that are the heart of our democracy.”

Ultimately, Bork’s nomination failed by a 58-42 vote in the Senate, with 52 Democrats and six Republicans rejecting the nomination.

Ronnie White

In 1997, Democratic President Bill Clinton nominated White to the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri. White was the first Black judge on the Missouri Supreme Court.

Republican Sen. John Ashcroft, from White’s home state of Missouri, led the fight against the nomination. Ashcroft alleged that White’s confirmation would “push the law in a pro-criminal direction.” Ashcroft based this claim on White’s comparatively liberal record in death penalty cases as a judge on the Missouri Supreme Court.

However, there was limited evidence to support this assertion. This led some to believe that Ashcroft’s attack on the nomination was motivated by stereotypes that African Americans, like White, are soft on crime.

Even Clinton implied that race may be a factor in the attacks on White: “By voting down the first African-American judge to serve on the Missouri Supreme Court, the Republicans have deprived both the judiciary and the people of Missouri of an excellent, fair, and impartial Federal judge.”

White’s nomination was defeated in the Senate by a 54-45 party-line vote. In 2014, White was renominated to the same judgeship by President Barack Obama and confirmed by largely party-line 53-44 vote, garnering the support of a single Republican, Susan Collins of Maine.

A man with brown skin and a black suit places a hand on a leather chair and stands alongside people dressed formally.
Ronnie White, a former justice for the Missouri Supreme Court, testifies during an attorney general confirmation hearing in Washington in January 2001.
Alex Wong/Newsmakers

Miguel Estrada

Republican President George W. Bush nominated Estrada to the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in 2001.

Estrada, who had earned a unanimous “well-qualified” rating from the American Bar Association, faced deep opposition from Senate Democrats, who believed he was a conservative ideologue. They also worried that, if confirmed, he would later be appointed to the Supreme Court.

A dark-haired man in a suit, standing while swearing an oath.
Miguel Estrada, President George Bush’s nominee to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, is sworn in during his hearing before Senate Judiciary on Sept. 26, 2002.
Scott J. Ferrell/Congressional Quarterly/Getty Images

However, unlike Bork – who had an extensive paper trail as an academic and judge – Estrada’s written record was very thin.

Democrats sought to use his confirmation hearing to probe his beliefs. But they didn’t get very far, as Estrada dodged many of the senators’ questions, including ones about Supreme Court cases he disagreed with and judges he admired.

Democrats were particularly troubled by allegations that Estrada, when he was screening candidates for Justice Anthony Kennedy, disqualified applicants for Supreme Court clerkships based on their ideology.

According to one attorney: “Miguel told me his job was to prevent liberal clerks from being hired. He told me he was screening out liberals because a liberal clerk had influenced Justice Kennedy to side with the majority and write a pro-gay-rights decision in a case known as Romer v. Evans, which struck down a Colorado statute that discriminated against gays and lesbians.”

When asked about this at his confirmation hearing, Estrada initially denied it but later backpedaled. Estrada said, “There is a set of circumstances in which I would consider ideology if I think that the person has some extreme view that he would not be willing to set aside in service to Justice Kennedy.”

Unlike the Bork nomination, Democrats didn’t have the numbers to vote Estrada’s nomination down. Instead, they successfully filibustered the nomination, knowing that Republicans couldn’t muster the required 60 votes to end the filibuster. This marked the first time in Senate history that a court of appeals nomination was filibustered. Estrada would never serve as a judge.

Bove stands out

As the examples of Bork, Estrada and White make clear, contentious nominations to the federal courts often involve ideological concerns.

This is also true for Bove, who was opposed in part because of the perception that he is a conservative ideologue.

But the main concerns about Bove were related to a belief that he is a Trump loyalist who shows little respect for the rule of law or the judicial branch.

This makes Bove stand out among contentious federal court nominations.

This story, originally published on July 21, 2025, has been updated to reflect the Senate’s confirmation of Bove.

The Conversation

Paul M. Collins Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Emil Bove confirmed – his appeals court nomination echoed earlier controversies, but with a key difference – https://theconversation.com/emil-bove-confirmed-his-appeals-court-nomination-echoed-earlier-controversies-but-with-a-key-difference-261347

Summer has brought both hope and questions for Ukraine amid Donald Trump’s posturing

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

United States President Donald Trump has recently issued various threats towards Russia amid his apparent mounting frustration with Russian leader Vladmir Putin. These threats also occur at a time when Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine may have an end in sight.

Some experts have suggested that 2025 is Russia’s best chance to win its war against Ukraine in a decisive manner. Russia has material advantages over the Ukrainians, whose international backers have not matched the pace of Russian arms manufacturing.

Recent analyses emphasize that Russian advances in 2025 have been the most successful since its early efforts in 2022.

What such perspectives fail to note, however, is the amount of territory that Russia has seized in 2025 is, from a strategic standpoint, negligible. On the surface, this bodes well for Ukraine.

Nevertheless, long-term indicators for Ukraine’s success, notably external support and personnel issues, are unresolved.

Russia’s 2025 offensive

Russia has been involved in extensive offensive military operations since the spring of 2025, but it had been pursuing such a venture much earlier.

The year 2025 introduced a political variable into both Russia and Ukraine’s calculations that likely caused the Russians to accelerate their timetable: Trump. Trump has pushed for peace in Ukraine, no matter the terms.

Trump’s original 50-day deadline for Russia to conclude a peace deal is at the start of September. Given this time span is likely the limit of Russia’s operational capacity, it means that Putin is incentivized to seize as much territory as possible in the interim. There are too many unknowns in terms of Trump’s pivot to a 10-12 day deadline to warrant further analysis.




Read more:
Sanctioning ghosts: Why US plans to hit Russia with fresh economic penalties will have little effect


The role of North Korea

Nevertheless, Russian forces in 2025 have not achieved a decisive breakthrough or altered the war in a demonstrable manner. Russia’s failed efforts to make significant gains this year are best witnessed in two phenomena: its drone campaign against Ukrainian cities and its alliance with North Korea.

The North Korean alliance was designed to counter weaknesses in Russia’s personnel and industrial base. Despite Russia’s increased recruitment efforts and offering large sums to enlist, it still faces personnel shortages.




Read more:
Amid the West’s wavering aid to Ukraine, North Korea backs Russia in a mutually beneficial move


North Korean soldiers offer Russia an advantage since casualties are unlikely to affect Putin’s political base or to disrupt the alliance between the two authoritarian regimes. The fact that North Korea is sending additional soldiers after its first wave suffered significant casualties indicates how Russia and North Korea view those soldiers as dispensable.

Ukraine’s effective counter-strategy

Russia’s purpose in conducting drone strikes on Ukrainian cities is to make up for its weakness on the battlefield. But Russian drone strikes on civilian infrastructure have not demoralized the Ukrainian population; rather, the opposite has occurred.

Russian drone strikes seem aimed at demonstrating its capabilities to Russian citizens after Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web embarrassed the Russian leadership.




Read more:
Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web destroyed more than aircraft – it tore apart the old idea that bases far behind the front lines are safe


Ukrainian officials in 2025 recognized the challenges the year would bring for its armed forces. Any direct engagements between Ukraine and Russia were likely to result in either the significant loss of Ukrainian territory or — and even more critically — personnel. Ukraine has maintained its units at the front lines, and has so far succeeded in avoiding either of these dire outcomes.

Instead, Ukraine has launched asymmetric attacks to divert Russian resources and maintain the morale of Ukrainians. Operation Spider Web was the most successful of these operations, as the attacks garnered domestic and international support while exposing Russian vulnerabilities.

Ukrainian forces have conducted several other actions with the goal of inhibiting Russian operations and boosting the morale of their people.

Ukrainian asymmetric attacks are not a genuine strategy for victory. But they could position Ukraine for greater success in 2026 and beyond. First Ukraine needs to address several factors to achieve this goal, in particular the domestic and international challenges it’s facing.

Ukraine’s domestic challenges

Ukraine continues to face an ongoing personnel shortage. Ukrainians need to have faith in their leaders to make the sacrifices needed for victory in the conflict, but the government’s recent actions have dampened domestic enthusiasm.




Read more:
Ukrainian protests: Zelensky faces biggest threat to his presidency since taking power


Specifically, while many Ukrainians accept the necessity of a wartime government, recent legislation that removed the independence of the government’s anti-corruption agencies sparked an uproar.

Recent demonstrations, the first large-scale protests against the Ukrainian government since Russia’s invasion, speak to the dismay the legislation engendered. One Ukrainian soldier even called the new measures a “fatal mistake.”

For Ukrainians to make sacrifices for the state, they must possess faith in their government. The Ukrainian government’s move to repeal the law is an important first step, but it must continue to work to build trust among the Ukrainian people.

Ukraine’s international challenges

While Ukraine’s government can directly control the domestic challenges it faces, it cannot do so internationally. The shifts of American policy under Trump is an example.

Ukraine could, however, diversify its efforts away from the U.S. It’s already started to do so, but it’s a slow and ongoing process.

In the interim, Ukraine must manage a mercurial American president and administration that has a penchant for using international affairs to distract from domestic concerns.




Read more:
Russia-Ukraine talks: both sides play for time and wait for Donald Trump’s 50 days to run out


Ukrainian politicians have improved their ability to manage Trump since the infamous February Oval Office affair, evident by Trump’s recent announcement of sorely needed Patriot missiles being sent to Ukraine.

Ukraine is managing to survive what could be Russia’s last chance at decisive victory if Trump is serious about his ceasefire threats to the Russian regime. The future of the conflict, however, will depend on how Ukraine manages its domestic and international challenges.

The Conversation

James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Summer has brought both hope and questions for Ukraine amid Donald Trump’s posturing – https://theconversation.com/summer-has-brought-both-hope-and-questions-for-ukraine-amid-donald-trumps-posturing-261646

How Disney classics help me teach real-world economics

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Junaid B. Jahangir, Associate Professor, Economics, MacEwan University

Disney celebrated the 75th anniversary of Cinderella in February this year, with the message that she didn’t just believe in dreams, but did something about them by going to the palace to get Prince Charming.

The message emphasizes individual persistence for a happy ending, and projects popular ideas often entrenched in how undergraduate students learn about economics — that success is based on individual talent and hard work.

The anniversary allowed the Disney store another opportunity to sell its wares, including a US$7,000 diamond engagement ring.

Cinderella’s castle remains a signature feature of the Disney logo. Her story, along with other Disney classics, has been also used by academics and popular commentators alike to teach economics and finance lessons.

I teach economics using Disney and Cinderella. My approach is grounded in scholarly, popular and student critiques of how economics is taught and of the myth of meritocracy — that people get what they deserve.

The focus in my course “Economics for Everyone” aims to critique traditional tenets of economic theory to discuss issues with inequality and also to teach economics in a way that is accessible and interesting to students representing diverse abilities and identities.

Disney celebrates 75 years of Cinderella.

‘Real-world’ economics

The idea of “real world” economics alludes to the push by student groups in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. They were concerned that while they were inundated with mathematical equations, their studies had not prepared them to address the state of the world.

As noted by Geoffrey Hodgson, a specialist in institutional and evolutionary economics, students created organizations and mounted demonstrations for alternative curricula.

In 2016, founding members of the Post-Crash Economics Society at the University of Manchester published The Econocracy: The Perils of Leaving Economics to the Experts. A global network, Rethinking Economics, was formed.

Some economics faculty responded that the discipline ought to focus on issues of inequalities, climate change, concerns about the future of work and financial instability.

Economist John Komlos focuses on the need for diverse or “real-world” issues in economics education while economists Jack Reardon and Maria Alejandra Caporale Madi write about a new “pluralist” economics. Political economist and economic historian Robert Skidelsky discusses why economics should include philosophy, history, sociology and politics.

Economists Sam de Muijnck and Joris Tieleman argue that economics textbooks sideline topics pertaining to power, racism, colonialism, exploitation and unequal life chances.

All these critiques lie at the heart of what I think of as “real-world economics.”

Beginning with situations, not math

Traditionally, in the first year of economics programs, students become deeply familiar with economic theoretical ideas that are posited as scientifically neutral or “value-free” models. However, as scholars like James Kwak and Komlos note, these theories are value-laden and promote neoliberal ideas that rest upon assuming the benefits of privatization, deregulation and small governments.




Read more:
What exactly is neoliberalism?


To teach first-year economics, instead of beginning with mathematical theories, I begin with real-world situations students are familiar with that speak to economic realities. The approach is inspired by Komlos and by a former student, Declan Jensen-Joyce, who asked me to emphasize diverse perspectives and real-world content.

I de-emphasize math at the introductory level, as many first-year students from varied disciplines (like business students majoring in accounting) have to take an introductory economics course. I emphasize a critical evaluation of mathematical models, an approach I sustain in advanced economics classes. Students who advance in economics are critically prepared to consider the limits of mathematical models.

Economics for everyone

The course I designed, “Economics for Everyone,” is offered for undergraduate students and also for senior citizens as part of the Edmonton Lifelong Learners Association. The class centres issues of economic inequality, worker exploitation and systemic discrimination.

I draw on mainstream (neoclassical) economic theory that emphasizes rationality, equilibrium and markets. I also draw on critiques of the field of economics from thinkers both within economics and from disciplines like anthropology, philosophy and history.

Using popular stories to reinforce concepts and ideas when teaching economics isn’t new. Especially since a seminal critique of the “chalk and talk” method — lots of math on a blackboard combined with lecturing — there has been a surge of research involving the use of games, video clips, popular books and other creative media to engage students.

Such methods of instruction are based on the recognition that they make economic content more relatable and increase student interest, break up lectures
and reinforce learning.

Levelling the playing field

The Disney message on Cinderella’s 75th anniversary is just one perspective.

In my class, I show a video clip to discuss the role of both luck and the importance of equality of opportunity in Cinderella’s happy ending. On the one hand, Cinderella’s good looks gave her luck. On the other hand, her opportunities could have been thwarted had it not been for interventions from outsiders.

For example, students learn that a level playing field was created when the Grand Duke allows Cinderella to try the slipper despite the unfair tactics of her stepmother, Lady Tremaine.

Disney Kids: Cinderella tries on the glass slipper.

Selected works of Komlos, as well as by philosopher Michael Sandel and political scientist Tom Malleson, accompany the message I endeavour to highlight to broach topics like democratizing the market system.

Economic freedom

Cinderella also allows us to recognize that people cannot exercise free choice unless they are economically free — as in the case of Cinderella, who must follow orders so she doesn’t end up on the streets.

This is specifically true in the case of racialized people, specifically, as I discuss, Black communities in the United States, who obtained freedom from legal bondage but continued to face economic constraints and hardship reinforced through many forms of white power, both violent and coercive.

Through The Princess and The Frog, a 2009 Disney musical, I consider the characters Tiana and Charlotte as children and as adults. I contrast the wealthy neighbourhood of Charlotte’s (white) family and Tiana’s neighbourhood of working-class Black families in order to teach the economics of racism.

This allows recognition of the systemic impact of neighbourhoods with poor schools and high unemployment on limiting upward social mobility. These themes also support discussing covert racism in the discipline of economics and how communities and systems of governance can mitigate inequalities.




Read more:
Banking co-ops run by Black women have a longtime legacy of helping people


How living standards emerge

Teaching about Pinocchio also helps me critique the economic principle that living standards are based on productivity.

For example, Stromboli enriches himself with gold coins by exploiting Pinocchio’s labour and keeping him in a cage. Examining this story allows an opportunity to broach the mistreatment of poor migrant workers in the Middle East with dismal living conditions.

Overall, various Disney animations allow me to broach real-world economic issues in a manner that captures the interest of students, young and old.

The Conversation

Junaid B. Jahangir does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How Disney classics help me teach real-world economics – https://theconversation.com/how-disney-classics-help-me-teach-real-world-economics-259831

Desafiando los límites computacionales en la ciencia: el ejemplo del electromagnetismo

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Jorge Rafael González Teodoro, Docente, UNIR – Universidad Internacional de La Rioja

Color4260/Shutterstock

El progreso científico y tecnológico ha sido posible gracias a nuestra capacidad para identificar patrones en la naturaleza. Esta habilidad nos permite resolver problemas y avanzar en diversas disciplinas. De hecho, Carl Sagan la describió como “la mejor cualidad del ser humano”.

Desde los tiempos de Arquímedes (287-212 a. e. c.) la humanidad ha buscado comprender el universo a través de estos patrones. Sin embargo, el conocimiento ha crecido en complejidad. Por ello, los desafíos científicos actuales combinan análisis teóricos y experimentales.

En las últimas décadas las herramientas computacionales han adquirido un papel clave. Estas permiten encontrar patrones, reducir errores y mejorar la eficiencia en muchas aplicaciones.

De hecho, la simulación y el modelado por computadora son hoy pilares de la investigación. Permiten validar experimentos y explorar nuevas teorías en condiciones difíciles de reproducir. Además, optimizan procesos en múltiples áreas del conocimiento. Un ejemplo claro es el estudio del magnetismo.

El alto coste de los experimentos

Desde que Hans Christian Ørsted descubrió en 1820 la relación entre electricidad y magnetismo, las ecuaciones de Maxwell –que describen los fenómenos electromagnéticos– han evolucionado. Estos avances han mejorado la transmisión, el almacenamiento y la reducción de pérdidas de energía.

Dado que la energía es un recurso esencial, comprender el magnetismo es clave para optimizar su uso. Por eso, el modelado computacional del campo magnético es crucial en muchos sectores. Se usa en reactores de fusión, aceleradores de partículas, en energías renovables y en la producción de isótopos para tratar el cáncer.

La importancia de estos modelos radica en que, a pesar de los avances, las ecuaciones de Maxwell –las que explican los fenómenos electromagnéticos– solo tienen soluciones exactas en casos simples. Los ensayos experimentales, por su alto coste y duración, se usan solo para validaciones.

Por ello, la simulación computacional se ha vuelto esencial en el análisis de fenómenos complejos. El llamado “modelado por elementos finitos”, como su nombre indica, divide un problema en partes pequeñas y manejables.

Sin embargo, las limitaciones computacionales actuales encarecen estos análisis.

¿Cómo mejorar la eficiencia de los modelos?

Para mejorar la eficiencia se han desarrollado métodos innovadores. Su objetivo es simplificar los modelos sin afectar la precisión de los resultados. Un enfoque reciente promete superar las barreras de la simulación tridimensional convencional.

Este método modifica la geometría del cableado eléctrico. En otras palabras, reduce el número de elementos finitos a los que se reducía el problema y mejora la eficiencia del cálculo.

La clave está en ajustar las propiedades de los materiales en la fase de premodelado. Así se preservan las características eléctricas y magnéticas sin comprometer la exactitud.

En magnetismo, un parámetro esencial es la frecuencia, que mide la velocidad con la que se repite un fenómeno periódico. Las bajas frecuencias corresponden a procesos lentos, como el tic-tac de un reloj; las medias frecuencias incluyen la transmisión de radio AM; y las altas frecuencias abarcan señales de radio FM y comunicaciones inalámbricas.

A altas frecuencias aparecen fenómenos, como el efecto pelicular y el efecto proximidad, que afectan a la eficiencia de los dispositivos eléctricos y electrónicos. Comprenderlos mejora la eficiencia de estos sistemas.

Científicos de todo el mundo publican trabajos sobre esos efectos cada año, y cada avance ha supuesto un hito. Pero este novedoso estudio en cables con secciones poligonales ha proporcionado nuevas contribuciones en este campo de investigación.

Así, un nuevo enfoque propone utilizar coeficientes correctores una vez que la simulación ha terminado (lo que los expertos llaman “posmodelado”). Esto permite obtener resultados eléctricos y magnéticos muy similares a los que se lograrían si se hubieran modelado con total detalle las formas reales de los cables.

En otras palabras, es como usar una fórmula “mágica” que, al final del proceso, ajusta el resultado para que se parezca mucho al que habríamos obtenido si hubiéramos hecho una simulación más compleja y lenta.

Esta técnica acelera los cálculos en componentes con formas irregulares o poco simétricas, que normalmente son más difíciles de recrear. Además, permite calcular dos propiedades fundamentales (la resistencia y la inductancia) que son parámetros claves para diseñar dispositivos eléctricos eficientes.

Cada desafío resuelto nos hace avanzar

La innovación en computación científica sigue siendo clave para comprender la naturaleza con mayor precisión. Cada avance nos acerca a resolver grandes incógnitas y mejorar la calidad de vida en la Tierra.

A pesar de los desafíos computacionales, cada problema resuelto y cada simulación exitosa nos acercan a un futuro con más oportunidades.

La curiosidad humana y la tecnología impulsan nuevos descubrimientos; nos ayudan a encontrar patrones donde antes no los veíamos. Gracias al desarrollo de la computación avanzada, el conocimiento sigue expandiéndose.

The Conversation

Jorge Rafael González Teodoro no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Desafiando los límites computacionales en la ciencia: el ejemplo del electromagnetismo – https://theconversation.com/desafiando-los-limites-computacionales-en-la-ciencia-el-ejemplo-del-electromagnetismo-224657