‘We want you arrested because we said so’ – how ICE’s policy on raiding whatever homes it wants violates a basic constitutional right, according to a former federal judge

Source: The Conversation – USA – By John E. Jones III, President, Dickinson College

Teyana Gibson Brown, wife of Liberian immigrant Garrison Gibson, reacts after a federal immigration officer arrested her husband in a warrantless raid in Minneapolis, Jan. 11, 2026, in what a judge later ruled was a violation of Gibson’s Fourth Amendment rights. AP Photo/John Locher

As Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, agents continued to use aggressive and sometimes violent methods to make arrests in its mass deportation campaign, including breaking down doors in Minneapolis homes, a bombshell report from the Associated Press on Jan. 21, 2026, said that an internal ICE memo – acquired via a whistleblower – asserted that immigration officers could enter a home without a judge’s warrant. That policy, the report said, constituted “a sharp reversal of longstanding guidance meant to respect constitutional limits on government searches.”

Those limits have long been found in the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Politics editor Naomi Schalit interviewed Dickinson College President John E. Jones III, a former federal judge appointed by President George W. Bush and confirmed unanimously by the U.S. Senate in 2002, for a primer on the Fourth Amendment, and what the changes in the ICE memo mean.

Okay, I’m going to read the Fourth Amendment – and then you’re going to explain it to us, please! Here goes:

“The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.” Can you help us understand what that means?

Since the beginning of the republic, it has been uncontested that in order to invade someone’s home, you need to have a warrant that was considered, and signed off on, by a judicial officer. This mandate is right within the Fourth Amendment; it is a core protection.

In addition to that, through jurisprudence that has evolved since the adoption of the Fourth Amendment, it is settled law that it applies to everyone. That would include noncitizens as well.

What I see in this directive that ICE put out, apparently quite some time ago and somewhat secretly, is something that, to my mind, turns the Fourth Amendment on its head.

A dark-haired man looking grim and fiddling with his white-collared shirt.
Todd Lyons, the acting head of ICE, whose memorandum on May 12, 2025, authorized ICE agents to forcibly enter into certain people’s homes without a judicial warrant, consent or an emergency.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

What does the Fourth Amendment aim to protect someone from?

In the context of the ICE search, it means that a person’s home, as they say, really is their castle. Historically, it was meant to remedy something that was true in England, where the colonists came from, which was that the king or those empowered by the king could invade people’s homes at will. The Fourth Amendment was meant to establish a sort of zone of privacy for people, so that their papers, their property, their persons would be safe from intrusion without cause.

So it’s essentially a protection against abuse of the government’s power.

That’s precisely what it is.

Has the accepted interpretation of the Fourth Amendment changed over the centuries?

It hasn’t. But Fourth Amendment law has evolved because the framers, for example, didn’t envision that there would be cellphones. They couldn’t understand or anticipate that there would be things like cellphones and electronic surveillance. All those modalities have come into the sphere of Fourth Amendment protection. The law has evolved in a way that actually has made Fourth Amendment protections greater and more wide-ranging, simply because of technology and other developments such as the use of automobiles and other means of transportation. So there are greater protected zones of privacy than just a person’s home.

ICE says it only needs an administrative warrant, not a judicial warrant, to enter a home and arrest someone. Can you briefly describe the difference and what it means in this situation?

It’s absolutely central to the question here. In this context, an administrative warrant is nothing more than the folks at ICE headquarters writing something up and directing their agents to go arrest somebody. That’s all. It’s a piece of paper that says ‘We want you arrested because we said so.’ At bottom that’s what an administrative warrant is, and of course it hasn’t been approved by a judge.

This authorized use of administrative warrants to circumvent the Fourth Amendment flies in the face of their limited use prior to the ICE directive.

A judicially approved warrant, on the other hand, has by definition been reviewed by a judge. In this case, it would be either a U.S. magistrate judge or U.S. district judge. That means that it would have to be supported by probable cause to enter someone’s residence to arrest them.

So the key distinction is that there’s a neutral arbiter. In this case, a federal judge who evaluates whether or not there’s sufficient cause to – as is stated clearly in the Fourth Amendment – be empowered to enter someone’s home. An administrative warrant has no such protection. It is not much more than a piece of paper generated in a self-serving way by ICE, free of review to substantiate what is stated in it.

ICE agents continued raids in Minnesota on Jan. 18, 2026, pulling a man who was wearing only underwear and a blanket out of a house in St. Paul.

Have there been other kinds of situations, historically, where the government has successfully proposed working around the Fourth Amendment?

There are a few, such as consent searches and exigent circumstances where someone is in danger or evidence is about to be destroyed. But generally it’s really the opposite and cases point to greater protections. For example, in the 1960s the Supreme Court had to confront warrantless wiretapping; it was very difficult for judges in that age who were not tech-savvy to apply the Fourth Amendment to this technology, and they struggled to find a remedy when there was no actual intrusion into a structure. In the end, the court found that intrusion was not necessary and that people’s expectation of privacy included their phone conversations. This of course has been extended to various other means of technology including GPS tracking and cellphone use generally.

What’s the direction this could go in at this point?

What I fear here – and I think ICE probably knows this – is that more often than not, a person who may not have legal standing to be in the country, notwithstanding the fact that there was a Fourth Amendment violation by ICE, may ultimately be out of luck. You could say that the arrest was illegal, and you go back to square one, but at the same time you’ve apprehended the person. So I’m struggling to figure out how you remedy this.

The Conversation

John E. Jones III is affiliated with Keep Our Republic’s Article Three Coalition.

ref. ‘We want you arrested because we said so’ – how ICE’s policy on raiding whatever homes it wants violates a basic constitutional right, according to a former federal judge – https://theconversation.com/we-want-you-arrested-because-we-said-so-how-ices-policy-on-raiding-whatever-homes-it-wants-violates-a-basic-constitutional-right-according-to-a-former-federal-judge-274164

Rheumatoid arthritis has no cure – but researchers are homing in on preventing it

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Kevin Deane, Professor of Medicine and Rheumatology, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

Gentle massaging can help ease the joint pain and swelling from rheumatoid arthritis. Toa55/iStock via Getty Images Plus

More than 18 million people worldwide suffer from rheumatoid arthritis, including nearly 1.5 million Americans.

Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune, inflammatory form of arthritis, meaning a person’s immune system attacks their joints, causing substantial inflammation. This inflammation can cause pain, stiffness and swelling in the joints, and in many cases, patients report fatigue and a flu-like feeling.

If left untreated, rheumatoid arthritis can lead to damage of the joints. But even when treated, this condition can lead to significant disability. In highly active disease or advanced stages, patient may have difficulty performing daily tasks, such as preparing food, caring for children and getting dressed.

Up to now, this condition has been treated once patients have already developed symptoms. But a growing body of evidence suggests this disease can be identified earlier – and maybe even ultimately prevented.

I’m a physician specializing in rheumatoid arthritis and a researcher who has conducted a clinical trial on treatments for this condition. I believe this research is moving us toward being able to identify people who are at risk for rheumatoid arthritis before the disease fully develops, and to finding treatments that will delay or prevent it altogether. My hope is that this could lead to changes in how we manage rheumatoid arthritis in the next several years.

Finding the disease before it causes harm

Currently, when someone visits their health care provider because they are experiencing joint pain or other symptoms of an immune attack, health care providers can make a diagnosis by examining the joints for swelling. The health care provider will also run tests to find blood markers called autoantibodies, which help in confirming the diagnosis. While not all people with rheumatoid arthritis will have abnormal blood markers, the two autoantibodies that are seen in up to 80% of people with rheumatoid arthritis are rheumatoid factor and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide.

In addition to joint pain, rheumatoid arthritis affects a person’s entire immune system.

But multiple studies have now confirmed that rheumatoid arthritis has a preclinical stage of development. This is a time about three to five years or longer, prior to the onset of swollen joints when markers like rheumatoid factor and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide are detectable in the blood. The presence of these markers indicates that autoimmunity is occurring, yet the body and organs are still functioning well, and a person who is at risk of getting rheumatoid arthritis may not feel sick yet.

Now that researchers have identified this preclinical stage, health care providers can use markers such as autoantibodies and symptoms like prolonged early morning joint stiffness to identify people who are at risk for rheumatoid arthritis but do not yet have joint inflammation.

At this point, predicting future rheumatoid arthritis is still in the research stage, although the field is working toward established ways to test for risk for rheumatoid arthritis as a routine part of health care. This is akin to how cardiovascular disease risk is assessed through measuring cholesterol levels.

Ongoing research

Because of advances in the ability to predict who may get rheumatoid arthritis in the future, researchers are now working on identifying treatments that can delay or prevent the full-blown condition from developing.

In particular, trials have been performed in people who tested positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide, or who have other risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis. These risk factors include joint pain and subclinical joint inflammation, which is when an imaging study, like magnetic resonance imaging, sees joint inflammation that can’t be seen by a clinician examining the joints.

To date, almost all of these trials have used immune drugs that are commonly used to treat full-blown rheumatoid arthritis, such as methotrexate, hydroxychloroquine and rituximab. Researchers have been testing whether a short course of any of these drugs could lead to a lasting reset of the immune system and prevent rheumatoid arthritis from developing.

While there is not yet an approved drug for rheumatoid arthritis prevention, these studies offer hope that researchers are on track to find the right drug – as well as the right dosage and duration of that drug.

Researching the preclinical stage of rheumatoid arthritis

Some challenges remain to be addressed before preventive treatments become the norm in clinical care.

First, researchers need to better understand the biology of the preclinical stage of disease. Until recently, most studies have focused on patients with full-blown arthritis and generally ignored people at risk for developing the disease.

But now, researchers can use blood markers like anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies to identify those who are at risk much more easily. And a growing number of studies of people with this marker are informing how scientists understand the biology of rheumatoid arthritis development.

In particular, it is now apparent that the preclinical stage is marked by multiple circulating immune system abnormalities in cells, autoantibodies and inflammation. The hope is that researchers will find interventions that effectively target the immune system abnormalities driving the development of rheumatoid arthritis before the patient’s joints begin to swell.

Researchers are also finding that the abnormalities in the immune system during the preclinical stage may be coming from sites in the body other than the joints. An emerging idea called the mucosal origins hypothesis posits that the early autoimmunity of rheumatoid arthritis is caused by inflammation at mucosal surfaces of the body, such as the gums, the lungs and the gut. According to this theory, the joints are involved only later as the disease progresses.

More research is needed, but the mucosal origins hypothesis may help explain why periodontal disease, emphysema or other forms of lung disease and exposure to tobacco or forest fire smoke are risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis. It would also explain why certain bacteria have been associated with the disease. Future trials targeting interventions to a mucosal process could help researchers better understand the nature of this disease.

nurse draws blood from patient with outstretched arm
At some point, testing for biomarkers of rheumatoid arthritis may become routine. For now, it can still be difficult for health care providers to determine which of their patients may be at risk for rheumatoid arthritis.
MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Making predictions

But while biomarkers like the anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies are strongly predictive for future rheumatoid arthritis, one difficulty remains: Some people who test positive for them never develop the full-blown disease.

Studies have shown that about 20% to 30% of people who are positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies develop rheumatoid arthritis within two to five years, although the presence of combinations of risk factors can identify people who have a greater than 50% risk for developing the condition within one year.

This makes it difficult to find participants for clinical trials for rheumatoid arthritis prevention. If you can’t predict who will get the disease, it’s hard to know whether you’re preventing it.

So far, researchers have tried to recruit people who have already come to their health care provider with early joint symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis but still no swollen joints. That has worked well, but there are likely far more people at risk for rheumatoid arthritis who have not yet sought care. Since health care providers are not yet testing everyone for blood markers for rheumatoid arthritis, researchers will need larger, international networks that can test for risk factors like autoantibodies to identify candidates for participation in prevention trials.

More needs to be done, but it’s exciting to see the field advancing toward the point where prevention may be part of routine clinical care for rheumatoid arthritis.

The Conversation

Dr. Deane has received grant funding from the Arthritis Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead and ThermoFisher, and has had consulting/advisory board participation with Werfen, Boehringer Ingelheim, AllInBio, and Lilly. Dr. Deane also part of task forces for prediction of rheumatoid arthritis that are sponsored by the American College of Rheumatology and the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology.

ref. Rheumatoid arthritis has no cure – but researchers are homing in on preventing it – https://theconversation.com/rheumatoid-arthritis-has-no-cure-but-researchers-are-homing-in-on-preventing-it-268472

Your brain can be trained, much like your muscles – a neurologist explains how to boost your brain health

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Joanna Fong-Isariyawongse, Associate Professor of Neurology, University of Pittsburgh

Research shows that the brain can be exercised, much like our muscles. RapidEye/E+ via Getty Images

If you have ever lifted a weight, you know the routine: challenge the muscle, give it rest, feed it and repeat. Over time, it grows stronger.

Of course, muscles only grow when the challenge increases over time. Continually lifting the same weight the same way stops working.

It might come as a surprise to learn that the brain responds to training in much the same way as our muscles, even though most of us never think about it that way. Clear thinking, focus, creativity and good judgment are built through challenge, when the brain is asked to stretch beyond routine rather than run on autopilot. That slight mental discomfort is often the sign that the brain is actually being trained, a lot like that good workout burn in your muscles.

Think about walking the same loop through a local park every day. At first, your senses are alert. You notice the hills, the trees, the changing light. But after a few loops, your brain checks out. You start planning dinner, replaying emails or running through your to-do list. The walk still feels good, but your brain is no longer being challenged.

Routine feels comfortable, but comfort and familiarity alone do not build new brain connections.

As a neurologist who studies brain activity, I use electroencephalograms, or EEGs, to record the brain’s electrical patterns.

Research in humans shows that these rhythms are remarkably dynamic. When someone learns a new skill, EEG rhythms often become more organized and coordinated. This reflects the brain’s attempt to strengthen pathways needed for that skill.

Your brain trains in zones too

For decades, scientists believed that the brain’s ability to grow and reorganize, called neuroplasticity, was largely limited to childhood. Once the brain matured, its wiring was thought to be largely fixed.

But that idea has been overturned. Decades of research show that adult brains can form new connections and reorganize existing networks, under the right conditions, throughout life.

Some of the most influential work in this field comes from enriched environment studies in animals. Rats housed in stimulating environments filled with toys, running wheels and social interaction developed larger, more complex brains than rats kept in standard cages. Their brains adapted because they were regularly exposed to novelty and challenge.

Human studies find similar results. Adults who take on genuinely new challenges, such as learning a language, dancing or practicing a musical instrument, show measurable increases in brain volume and connectivity on MRI scans.

The takeaway is simple: Repetition keeps the brain running, but novelty pushes the brain to adapt, forcing it to pay attention, learn and problem-solve in new ways. Neuroplasticity thrives when the brain is nudged just beyond its comfort zone.

Older women knitting together and socializing in a community space.
Tasks that stretch your brain just beyond its comfort zone, such as knitting and crocheting, can improve cognitive abilities over your lifespan – and doing them in a group setting brings an additional bonus for overall health.
Dougal Waters/DigitalVision via Getty Images

The reality of neural fatigue

Just like muscles, the brain has limits. It does not get stronger from endless strain. Real growth comes from the right balance of challenge and recovery.

When the brain is pushed for too long without a break – whether that means long work hours, staying locked onto the same task or making nonstop decisions under pressure – performance starts to slip. Focus fades. Mistakes increase. To keep you going, the brain shifts how different regions work together, asking some areas to carry more of the load. But that extra effort can still make the whole network run less smoothly.

Neural fatigue is more than feeling tired. Brain imaging studies show that during prolonged mental work, the networks responsible for attention and decision-making begin to slow down, while regions that promote rest and reward-seeking take over. This shift helps explain why mental exhaustion often comes with stronger cravings for quick rewards, like sugary snacks, comfort foods or mindless scrolling. The result is familiar: slower thinking, more mistakes, irritability and mental fog.

This is where the muscle analogy becomes especially useful. You wouldn’t do squats for six hours straight, because your leg muscles would eventually give out. As they work, they build up byproducts that make each contraction a little less effective until you finally have to stop. Your brain behaves in a similar way.

Likewise, in the brain, when the same cognitive circuits are overused, chemical signals build up, communication slows and learning stalls.

But rest allows those strained circuits to reset and function more smoothly over time. And taking breaks from a taxing activity does not interrupt learning. In fact, breaks are critical for efficient learning.

Middle-aged woman sitting near her computer, rubbing her neck.
Overdoing any task, whether it be weight training or sitting at the computer for too long, can overtax the muscles as well as the brain.
Halfpoint Images/Moment via Getty Images

The crucial importance of rest

Among all forms of rest, sleep is the most powerful.

Sleep is the brain’s night shift. While you rest, the brain takes out the trash through a special cleanup system called the glymphatic system that clears away waste and harmful proteins. Sleep also restores glycogen, a critical fuel source for brain cells.

And importantly, sleep is when essential repair work happens. Growth hormone surges during deep sleep, supporting tissue repair. Immune cells regroup and strengthen their activity.

During REM sleep, the stage of sleep linked to dreaming, the brain replays patterns from the day to consolidate memories. This process is critical not only for cognitive skills like learning an instrument but also for physical skills like mastering a move in sports.

On the other hand, chronic sleep deprivation impairs attention, disrupts decision-making and alters the hormones that regulate appetite and metabolism. This is why fatigue drives sugar cravings and late-night snacking.

Sleep is not an optional wellness practice. It is a biological requirement for brain performance.

Exercise feeds the brain too

Exercise strengthens the brain as well as the body.

Physical activity increases levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, or BDNF, a protein that acts like fertilizer for neurons. It promotes the growth of new connections, increases blood flow, reduces inflammation and helps the brain remain adaptable across one’s lifespan.

This is why exercise is one of the strongest lifestyle tools for protecting cognitive health.

Train, recover, repeat

The most important lesson from this science is simple. Your brain is not passively wearing down with age. It is constantly remodeling itself in response to how you use it. Every new challenge and skill you try, every real break, every good night of sleep sends a signal that growth is still expected.

You do not need expensive brain training programs or radical lifestyle changes. Small, consistent habits matter more. Try something unfamiliar. Vary your routines. Take breaks before exhaustion sets in. Move your body. Treat sleep as nonnegotiable.

So the next time you lace up your shoes for a familiar walk, consider taking a different path. The scenery may change only slightly, but your brain will notice. That small detour is often all it takes to turn routine into training.

The brain stays adaptable throughout life. Cognitive resilience is not fixed at birth or locked in early adulthood. It is something you can shape.

If you want a sharper, more creative, more resilient brain, you do not need to wait for a breakthrough drug or a perfect moment. You can start now, with choices that tell your brain that growth is still the plan.

The Conversation

Joanna Fong-Isariyawongse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Your brain can be trained, much like your muscles – a neurologist explains how to boost your brain health – https://theconversation.com/your-brain-can-be-trained-much-like-your-muscles-a-neurologist-explains-how-to-boost-your-brain-health-271331

Dealing with a difficult relationship? Here’s how psychology says you can shift the dynamic

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jessica A. Stern, Assistant Professor of Psychology, Pomona College

A heated exchange may stem from something deeper than the issue at hand. skynesher/E+ via Getty Images

Relationships can feel like both a blessing and the bane of your existence, a source of joy and a source of frustration or resentment. At some point, each of us is faced with a clingy child, a dramatic friend, a partner who recoils at the first hint of intimacy, a volatile parent or a controlling boss — in short, a difficult relationship.

As a psychology professor and relationship scientist, I’ve spent countless hours observing human interactions, in the lab and in the real world, trying to understand what makes relationships work – and what makes them feel utterly intractable.

Recently, I teamed up with psychologist Rachel Samson, who helps individuals, couples and families untangle difficult dynamics in the therapy room. In our new book, “Beyond Difficult: An attachment-based guide for dealing with challenging people,” we explore the roots of difficult behavior and evidence-based strategies for making difficult relationships more bearable.

So what’s really going on beneath the surface of “difficult” behavior? And more to the point, what can you do about it?

Difficult interactions can have deep roots

When a conversation with a co-worker goes sideways or a phone call with a friend goes off the rails, it’s easy to assume the issue stems from the situation at hand. But sometimes, big emotions and reactions have deeper roots. Difficult interactions often result from differences in temperament: your biologically based style of emotional and behavioral responses to the world around you.

People with a sensitive temperament react more strongly to stress and sensory experiences. When overwhelmed, they may seem volatile, moody or rigid — but these reactions are often more about sensory or emotional overload than malice. Importantly, when sensitive children and adults are in a supportive environment that “fits” their temperament, they can thrive socially and emotionally.

baby in crib looks up toward camera
Attachment style traces back to how you interacted with your earliest caregivers.
KDP/Moment via Getty Images

Beyond neurobiology, one of the most common threads underlying difficult relationships is what psychologists call insecure attachment. Early experiences with caregivers shape the way people connect with others later in life. Experiences of inconsistent or insensitive care can lead you to expect the worst of other people, a core feature of insecure attachment.

People with insecure attachment may cling, withdraw, lash out or try to control others — not because they want to make others miserable, but because they feel unsafe in close relationships. By addressing the underlying need for emotional safety, you can work toward more secure relationships.

Managing difficult emotions

In challenging interactions, emotions can run high — and how you deal with those emotions can make or break a relationship.

Research has shown that people with sensitive temperament, insecure attachment or a history of trauma often struggle with emotion regulation. In fact, difficulty managing emotions is one of the strongest predictors of mental illness, relationship breakups and even aggression and violence.

It’s easy to label someone as “too emotional,” but in reality, emotion is a social event. Our nervous systems constantly respond to one another — which means our ability to stay regulated affects not only how we feel, but how others react to us. The good news is that there are evidence-based strategies to calm yourself when tensions rise:

  1. Take a breath. Slow, deep breathing helps signal safety to the nervous system.
  2. Take a break. Relationship researchers John and Julie Gottman found that taking a 20-minute break during conflict helps reduce physiological stress and prevent escalation.
  3. Move your body. Exercise – particularly walking, dancing or yoga – has been shown to reduce depression and anxiety, sometimes even more effectively than medication. Movement before or after a difficult interaction can help “work out” the tension.
  4. Reframe the situation. This strategy, called cognitive reappraisal, involves changing the way you interpret a situation or your goals within it. Instead of trying to “fix” a difficult family member, for example, you might focus on appreciating the time you have with them. Reappraisal helps the brain regulate emotion before it escalates, lowering activity in stress-related areas like the amygdala.
two women in discussion sitting on couches
People may not know the effect their behavior has on you until you tell them.
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Giving better feedback

Difficult people are usually unaware of how their behavior affects you — unless you tell them. One of the most powerful things you can do in a difficult relationship is give feedback. But not all feedback is created equal.

Feedback, at its core, is a tool for learning. Without it, you would never have learned to write, drive or function socially. But when feedback is poorly delivered, it can backfire: People become defensive, shut down or dig in their heels. Feedback is most effective when it stays focused on the task rather than the individual; in other words, don’t make it personal.

Research points to four keys to effective feedback, based in learning theory:

  1. Mutuality: Approach the conversation as a two-way exchange. Be open to the needs and ideas of both parties.
  2. Specificity: Be clear about what behaviors you’re referring to. Citing particular interactions is often better than “You always ….”
  3. Goal-directedness: Connect the feedback to a shared goal. Work together to find a constructive solution to the problem.
  4. Timing: Give feedback close to the event, when it’s still fresh but emotions have settled.

Also, skip the so-called “compliment sandwich” of a critique between two pieces of positive feedback. It doesn’t actually improve outcomes or change behavior.

Interestingly, the most effective sequence is actually to start with a corrective, followed by positive affirmation of what’s going well. Leading with honesty shows respect. Plus, the corrective is more likely to be remembered. Following up with warmth builds connection and shows that you value the person.

The bottom line

Difficult relationships are part of being human; they don’t mean someone is broken or toxic. Often, they reflect deeper patterns of attachment, temperament and differences in how our brains work.

When you understand what’s underneath the behavior – and take steps to regulate yourself, communicate clearly and give compassionate feedback – you can shift even the most stuck relationship into something more bearable, perhaps even meaningful.

Strengthening relationships isn’t always easy. But the science shows that it is possible – and can be rewarding.

The Conversation

Jessica A. Stern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Dealing with a difficult relationship? Here’s how psychology says you can shift the dynamic – https://theconversation.com/dealing-with-a-difficult-relationship-heres-how-psychology-says-you-can-shift-the-dynamic-264669

Dogs can need more than kibble, walks and love − consider the escalating expenses of their medical care before you adopt

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By David L. Weimer, Professor of Political Economy Emeritus, University of Wisconsin-Madison

A man holds his 17½-year-old Chihuahua mix, which is receiving end-of-life hospice care.
Brittany Murray/MediaNews Group via Long Beach Press-Telegram and Getty Images

Many Americans struggle to pay for health care for themselves and other members of their families, even if they have insurance coverage.

Some very big bills arise when the furriest members of their households get sick or just need an annual checkup: their dogs. Americans spend an average of about US$1,700 annually on their dogs’ food and care, including $580 for veterinary bills.

All told, Americans spent more than $41 billion on their pets’ veterinary care in 2025, primarily on dogs and cats. Veterinary costs have soared in recent years, rising much faster than inflation in the past decade.

The average cost of any visit to a veterinarian for a dog is about $214 today. Appointment costs for a routine examination for a dog range from $70 to $174, depending in part on the vet’s location and your dog’s conditions.

Estimating future costs

Aidan Vining, a Canadian public policy scholar, and I, a public policy researcher based in the U.S., considered the extent to which economics can explain our canine relationships in our 2024 book “Dog Economics.”

Our own love of dogs helps us understand how people bring dogs into their lives without fully taking account of future costs. One of these often unanticipated costs is for veterinary bills that may break the family budget.

Indeed, a Gallup survey of dog and cat owners conducted for PetSmart Charities in 2024 and 2025 found that 42% of respondents had declined veterinary care for their pets because they could not afford it. In the same study, an additional 38% declined care because they did not believe it was worth the cost.

I think that people should consider the risk of bearing these costs before bringing a dog into the family.

Part of the family

Between 60 million and 68 million U.S. households include at least one dog. That means that as many as half of all occupied U.S. homes include a dog.

Most families with dogs revere them. A survey I conducted with colleagues in 2018 found that 73% of people with pet dogs strongly agreed with the statement “I consider my pets to be part of the family.”

A 2023 Pew Research Center survey found that 51% of pet owners viewed their animals as being as much a member of their family as their human relatives.

Because many of us will spend whatever we can to save the life of our family members, being unable to afford lifesaving care for dogs can be very upsetting.

Steep veterinarian bills

But sometimes dogs require very expensive care. And veterinarians in cities where the costs of living are high tend to charge more than elsewhere.

Treating some fairly common dog ailments can cost a bundle: as much as $3,000 for gastroenteritis, $7,000 for intestinal obstruction surgery, $5,000 for severe pancreatitis and $8,000 for stomach bloat.

The tab for canine cancer treatments involving chemotherapy or radiation can set you back more than $10,000.

The initial phase of treatment for immune-mediated hemolytic anemia for my family’s poodle, for example, cost more than $10,000 in veterinary costs. She is doing well but needs continuing medical care.

A white and tan poodle stands in a grassy spot.
Ming, the author’s family poodle, needs continuing veterinary care.
Dave Weimer

Sometimes pooches require overnight veterinary supervision. That can cost you as much as $1,500 per night they spend in an animal hospital on top of those other expenses.

Many Americans cannot afford to pay for such expensive care – only 41% could cover a $1,000 unanticipated expense of any kind from their savings.

Although only a stopgap,there are charities that provide free or lower-cost veterinary care for the pets of low-income people?

Insurance coverage is rare and often falls short

Pet insurance can help make these expenses more manageable, but it covers only about 4.9 million dogs – about 8% of all American dogs.

Most of those policies have deductibles you have to meet before they’ll reimburse you for at least part of the cost of your animal’s care. Some policies cover treatment only for accidents. Many exclude routine checkups and impose caps on total claims, typically at $5,000.

Ironically, people who can most easily afford pet insurance are also the most likely to have enough money to pay for veterinary expenses.

Insurance premiums for dogs, which depend on breed, where you live, their age and coverage terms, average about $62 per month. Premiums that cover well visits and either have high caps – annual limits on what you can be reimbursed through pet insurance policies – or no caps at all cost more than that.

And pet insurers may exclude preexisting conditions. That is, unlike human patients protected by the Affordable Care Act, insurers can decline to cover dogs with prior illnesses.

To be sure, some claims of over $60,000 have been paid by insurers through policies without any claim caps.

But in most cases, it’s clear that having a dog can mean you’ll bear substantial financial risks when your dog gets injured or ill. And that’s true whether or not you’re paying pet insurance premiums throughout its lifetime – which on average lasts about a dozen years.

Going into debt to pay the vet

Americans who do pay big veterinary bills often have to borrow to do so – 39% of pet owners say they have gone into debt to pay for veterinary care, according to a survey conducted by MetLife’s pet insurance division.

Even when they can afford those bills, many families often find providing care demanding and difficult to accommodate, given their work schedules and the caregiving that other relatives require.

People who cannot afford the cost or lack the time to provide their dogs with the veterinary care required may choose to euthanize, give their dogs to someone else – known as rehoming – or surrender them to shelters. There’s no reliable data about this but I’m certain that veterinary issues contribute to the 6% of the pet surrenders that happen for financial reasons.

And these surrenders contribute to the over 330,000 dogs that U.S. shelters euthanize each year.

3 considerations before acquiring dogs

Although dogs can enrich your life with their devotion and companionship, I urge anyone considering bringing a dog into your home to think through these financial issues first.

1. The potential cost of veterinary care for dogs is high and likely to increase.

Veterinary science will continue to develop new treatments, and some inevitably will be very expensive. As a result, dog owners will more often face heartbreaking choices between extending the life of an animal they consider to be a family member and destabilizing their own finances.

2. Like your human relatives, dogs tend to have more medical problems as they age.

Most people with dogs will outlive their pets and will eventually have to confront canine medical problems. In other words, veterinary costs will at some point challenge almost all pet parents.

3. Whether or not our relatives want to get expensive medical care, we usually err on the side of providing whatever we can afford unless they demand a switch to palliative care only.

Despite our emotional bonds with our dogs, they cannot tell us how they feel about the trade-off between quality of life and longevity. We should not ignore their suffering even when we can afford extensive veterinary care. Sometimes, euthanasia is the most loving decision.

Those facing these difficult end-of-life decisions may benefit from seeking out veterinary palliative and hospice care, which is increasingly available.

The Conversation

David L. Weimer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Dogs can need more than kibble, walks and love − consider the escalating expenses of their medical care before you adopt – https://theconversation.com/dogs-can-need-more-than-kibble-walks-and-love-consider-the-escalating-expenses-of-their-medical-care-before-you-adopt-272953

Feeling unprepared for the AI boom? You’re not alone

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Patrick Barry, Clinical Assistant Professor of Law and Director of Digital Academic Initiatives, University of Michigan

Many workers feel helpless – and anticipate widespread economic displacement – as companies scramble to incorporate AI into their business models. imagedepotpro/iStock via Getty Images

Journalist Ira Glass, who hosts the NPR show “This American Life,” is not a computer scientist. He doesn’t work at Google, Apple or Nvidia. But he does have a great ear for useful phrases, and in 2024 he organized an entire episode around one that might resonate with anyone who feels blindsided by the pace of AI development: “Unprepared for what has already happened.”

Coined by science journalist Alex Steffen, the phrase captures the unsettling feeling that “the experience and expertise you’ve built up” may now be obsolete – or, at least, a lot less valuable than it once was.

Whenever I lead workshops in law firms, government agencies or nonprofit organizations, I hear that same concern. Highly educated, accomplished professionals worry whether there will be a place for them in an economy where generative AI can quickly – and relativity cheaply – complete a growing list of tasks that an extremely large number of people currently get paid to do.

Seeing a future that doesn’t include you

In technology reporter Cade Metz’s 2022 book, “Genius Makers: The Mavericks Who Brought AI to Google, Facebook, and the World,” he describes the panic that washed over a veteran researcher at Microsoft named Chris Brockett when Brockett first encountered an artificial intelligence program that could essentially perform everything he’d spent decades learning how to master.

Overcome by the thought that a piece of software had now made his entire skill set and knowledge base irrelevant, Brockett was actually rushed to the hospital because he thought he was having a heart attack.

“My 52-year-old body had one of those moments when I saw a future where I wasn’t involved,” he later told Metz.

In his 2018 book, “Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence,” MIT physicist Max Tegmark expresses a similar anxiety.

“As technology keeps improving, will the rise of AI eventually eclipse those abilities that provide my current sense of self-worth and value on the job market?”

The answer to that question, unnervingly, can often feel outside of our individual control.

“We’re seeing more AI-related products and advancements in a single day than we saw in a single year a decade ago,” a Silicon Valley product manager told a reporter for Vanity Fair back in 2023. Things have only accelerated since then.

Even Dario Amodei – the co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, the company that created the popular chatbot Claude – has been shaken by the increasing power of AI tools. “I think of all the times when I wrote code,” he said in an interview on the tech podcast “Hard Fork.” “It’s like a part of my identity that I’m good at this. And then I’m like, oh, my god, there’s going to be these (AI) systems that [can perform a lot better than I can].”

Graphic of blue 100-dollar bill covered in ones and zeroes looming over silhouetted people holding bags and briefcases.
What will happen to workers who have spent their entire lives learning a skill that AI can replicate?
jokerpro/iStock via Getty Images

The irony that these fears live inside the brain of someone who leads one of the most important AI companies in the world is not lost on Amodei.

“Even as the one who’s building these systems,” he added, “even as one of the ones who benefits most from (them), there’s still something a bit threatening about (them).”

Autor and agency

Yet as the labor economist David Autor has argued, we all have more agency over the future than we might think.

In 2024, Autor was interviewed by Bloomberg News soon after publishing a research paper titled Applying AI to Rebuild Middle-Class Jobs. The paper explores the idea that AI, if managed well, might be able to help a larger set of people perform the kind of higher-value – and higher-paying – “decision-making tasks currently arrogated to elite experts like doctors, lawyers, coders and educators.”

This shift, Autor suggests, “would improve the quality of jobs for workers without college degrees, moderate earnings inequality, and – akin to what the Industrial Revolution did for consumer goods – lower the cost of key services such as healthcare, education and legal expertise.”

It’s an interesting, hopeful argument, and Autor, who has spent decades studying the effects of automation and computerization on the workforce, has the intellectual heft to explain it without coming across as Pollyannish.

But what I found most heartening about the interview was Autor’s response to a question about a type of “AI doomerism” that believes that widespread economic displacement is inevitable and there’s nothing we can do to stop it.

“The future should not be treated as a forecasting or prediction exercise,” he said. “It should be treated as a design problem – because the future is not (something) where we just wait and see what happens. … We have enormous control over the future in which we live, and [the quality of that future] depends on the investments and structures that we create today.”

At the starting line

I try to emphasize Autor’s point about the future being more of a “design problem” than a “prediction exercise” in all the AI courses and workshops I teach to law students and lawyers, many of whom fret over their own job prospects.

The nice thing about the current AI moment, I tell them, is that there is still time for deliberate action. Although the first scientific paper on neural networks was published all the way back in 1943, we’re still very much in the early stages of so-called “generative AI.”

No student or employee is hopelessly behind. Nor is anyone commandingly ahead.

Instead, each of us is in an enviable spot: right at the starting line.

The Conversation

Patrick Barry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Feeling unprepared for the AI boom? You’re not alone – https://theconversation.com/feeling-unprepared-for-the-ai-boom-youre-not-alone-273192

Doing things alone is on the rise, and businesses should pay more attention to that – even on Valentine’s Day

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Peter McGraw, Professor of Marketing and Psychology, University of Colorado Boulder

Every February, Valentine’s Day amplifies what single people already know – that public life is built for two. Restaurants roll out prix fixe menus for couples. Hotels promote “romantic getaway” packages designed for double occupancy. A table for one still invites the question, “Just you?”

Yet there’s irony that’s hard to miss. While Valentine’s Day doubles down on togetherness, more adults are living – and moving through the world – alone.

As a behavioral economist, I study what I call the “solo economy.” A growing share of economic life today is organized around people who live, spend and make decisions on their own.

1-person households aren’t outliers

Half of U.S. adults are unmarried, and one-person households are now the nation’s most common living arrangement. This isn’t a temporary phase confined to young adults waiting to settle down. It includes never-married professionals, divorced empty nesters, widows and widowers, and people who simply prefer to live independently.

Lifelong singlehood is also rising: 25% of millennials and 33% of Gen Z are projected to never marry.

It’s a slow-moving demographic shift away from long-term partnership as the dominant adult life path, but a consequential one – reshaping everything from housing and travel to social policy and commerce. One of its clearest expressions is the number of people doing things alone in public.

The rise of public solo life

It would be one thing if the economy were built for two and solos stayed home. But they are going to museums, traveling and, of course, dining alone in restaurants. To assess this behavior, I surveyed single and married Americans about their participation in 25 activities that occur in public – from shopping and dining to attending movies and concerts.

The pattern was striking. Overall, singles were much more likely to do things alone in public than their married counterparts – 56% versus 39%. The difference held across every activity I measured.

The biggest gaps weren’t for practical tasks like grocery shopping. They were for leisure experiences like going to the movies, dining out and attending concerts. In fact, seven of the 10 largest differences involved retail or entertainment settings – the very places most designed and marketed with couples in mind.

Bias that keeps people from having fun alone

Why hasn’t the business world paid more attention to the singles market?

The answer lies in psychology. Some reluctance stems from the belief that other customers will perceive solo diners or moviegoers as sad or lonely. These fears are amplified by what psychologists call the spotlight effect – our tendency to overestimate how much other people notice and judge us.

Findings by consumer researchers Rebecca Hamilton and Rebecca Ratner can help explain why this bias is so persistent. Across studies conducted in the U.S., China and India, people consistently predicted they would enjoy activities less if they did them alone – even though they’d be seeing the same movie or visiting the same museum.

But when people actually went alone, they enjoyed the experience just as much as those who went with others. The fear, it turns out, is largely imagined.

Another problem is that solo consumers don’t always feel welcome.

While behavior is changing, markets have been slower to adapt. Most businesses still design experiences around pairs, families or groups. Consider restaurants that seat solo diners at the bar or near the kitchen or bathrooms, or ticketing systems that require purchasing in pairs. The result is friction for solo consumers – and missed opportunities for companies.

Valentine’s Day promotions make that mismatch especially visible. In 2024, IKEA Canada offered a Valentine’s Day dining experience in its showroom priced and designed for two – and only two – people.

After backlash, the company revised the promotion the following year to be more inclusive: “Bring a loved one, a good friend, or the whole family.” It was a small change, but a revealing one.

Why solo shoppers have outsized influence

Solo consumers represent a large, growing and profitable market segment, yet they’re navigating a marketplace that still treats them as edge cases.

Another study that Ratner conducted with business school professor Yuechen Wu adds an important twist.

Analyses of more than 14,000 Tripadvisor reviews of restaurants and museums show that reviews written by solo diners and solo museumgoers are rated as more helpful – and receive more positive feedback – than reviews written by people who went with others.

Follow-up experiments showed that when otherwise identical recommendations differed only in whether the reviewer experienced the activity alone or with others, respondents were more likely to rely on the solo reviewer when deciding what to do.

Why? Observers infer that people who go alone are more genuinely interested in the experience and more focused on its quality, rather than simply going along with someone else’s preferences.

Being alone, it turns out, functions as a credibility cue. For businesses, that means solo customers aren’t just customers − they can be very influential customers.

Designing for 1 in Asia

Asian businesses are far ahead of the West in recognizing the buying power of people doing things alone.

In South Korea, for example, “honjok,” which translates as “alone tribe,” culture has fueled products and services designed explicitly for solo living. Think single-serve meals at convenience stores, one-person karaoke booths, and restaurants that promise judgment-free service.

Similarly, in Japan, the ramen chain Ichiran built its brand around the idea of “flavor concentration,” which encourages diners to eat alone in private booths.

Officially, the design is meant to eliminate distractions and heighten the dining experience. In practice, it does something more important: It legitimizes solo dining.

Progress in the US

In the U.S., Disney theme parks and some of the company’s competitors have long used single-rider lines that reward solo visitors with shorter waits, turning independence into operational efficiency – a logic ski resorts adopted decades ago to fill empty seats on chairlifts.

And solo tourism has become a major trend. Demand is growing, and tour operators are adapting offerings to meet it, including specialized tours for singles and adjustments to historically prohibitive pricing practices.

Industry analysis also shows the global solo travel market expanding rapidly, with tailored products and experiences emerging worldwide. Some companies now offer dedicated solo travel collections with no single supplement − the extra fee traditionally charged to travelers who occupy a room alone − and tours designed specifically for independent travelers.

Doing things alone is an opportunity

Valentine’s Day offers a chance to see how outdated many widespread assumptions still are.

It treats solitude as a problem to be solved, even as people’s behavior tells a different story. Yet businesses, policymakers and U.S. culture more broadly have not designed a world that fully acknowledges that about 42% of American adults are single.

In the meantime, singles aren’t waiting at home. They’re out there – at the movies, on planes, in museums and restaurants – moving through public life on their own terms.

Valentine’s Day may always be built for two. But the economy won’t be.

The Conversation

Peter McGraw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Doing things alone is on the rise, and businesses should pay more attention to that – even on Valentine’s Day – https://theconversation.com/doing-things-alone-is-on-the-rise-and-businesses-should-pay-more-attention-to-that-even-on-valentines-day-273227

Is being virtuous good for you – or just people around you? A study suggests traits like compassion may support your own well-being

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Michael Prinzing, Research and Assessment Scholar, Wake Forest University

Opportunities to show compassion often feel difficult, but exercising virtue seems to help people cope. FG Trade/E+ via Getty Images

Virtues such as compassion, patience and self-control may be beneficial not only for others but also for oneself, according to new research my team and I published in the Journal of Personality in December 2025.

Philosophers from Aristotle to al-Fārābī, a 10th-century scholar in what is now Iraq, have argued that virtue is vital for well-being. Yet others, such as Thomas Hobbes and Friedrich Nietzsche, have argued the opposite: Virtue offers no benefit to oneself and is good only for others. This second theory has inspired lots of research in contemporary psychology, which often sees morality and self-interest as fundamentally opposed.

Many studies have found that generosity is associated with happiness, and that encouraging people to practice kindness increases their well-being. But other virtues seem less enjoyable.

For example, a compassionate person wants to alleviate suffering or misfortune, but that requires there be suffering or misfortune. Patience is possible only when something irritating or difficult is happening. And self-control involves forgoing one’s desires or persisting with something difficult.

Two people in red coats crouch on a sidewalk, speaking with someone in a green jacket seated atop blankets.
Volunteers who drive homeless people to shelters talk with a person from Ukraine in Berlin on Jan. 7, 2026.
Michael Ukas/dpa/picture alliance via Getty Images

Could these kinds of virtues really be good for you?

My colleagues and I investigated this question in two studies, using two different methods to zoom in on specific moments in people’s daily lives. Our goal was to assess the degree to which, in those moments, they were compassionate, patient and self-controlled. We also assessed their level of well-being: how pleasant or unpleasant they felt, and whether they found their activities meaningful.

One study, with adolescents, used the experience sampling method, in which people answer questions at random intervals throughout the day. The other, studying adults, used the day reconstruction method, in which people answer questions about the previous day. All told, we examined 43,164 moments from 1,218 people.

During situations that offer opportunities to act with compassion, patience and self-control – encountering someone in need, for example, or dealing with a difficult person – people tend to experience more unpleasant feelings and less pleasant ones than in other situations. However, we found that exercising these three virtues seems to help people cope. People who are habitually more compassionate, patient and self-controlled tend to experience better well-being. And when people display more compassion, patience and self-control than usual, they tend to feel better than they usually do.

In short, our results contradicted the theory that virtue is good for others and bad for the self. They were consistent with the theory that virtue promotes well-being.

Why it matters

These studies tested the predictions of two venerable, highly influential theories about the relationship between morality and well-being. In doing so, they offered new insights into one of the most fundamental questions debated in philosophy, psychology and everyday life.

Moreover, in the scientific study of morality, lots of research has examined how people form moral judgments and how outside forces shape a person’s moral behavior. Yet some researchers have argued that this should be complemented by research on moral traits and how these are integrated into the whole person. By focusing on traits such as patience, compassion and self-control, and their roles in people’s daily lives, our studies contribute to the emerging science of virtue.

What still isn’t known

One open question for future research is whether virtues such as compassion, patience and self-control are associated with better well-being only under certain conditions. For example, perhaps things look different depending on one’s stage of life or in different parts of the world.

Our studies were not randomized experiments. It is possible that the associations we observed are explained by another factor – something that increases well-being while simultaneously increasing compassion, patience and self-control. Or maybe well-being affects virtue, instead of the other way around. Future research could help clarify the causal relationships.

One particularly interesting possibility is that there might be a “virtuous cycle”: Perhaps virtue tends to promote well-being – and well-being, in turn, tends to promote virtue. If so, it would be extremely valuable to learn how to help people kick-start that cycle.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

The Conversation

This research was made possible through the support of grants from the John Templeton Foundation (#61221, #62208). The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the John Templeton Foundation.

ref. Is being virtuous good for you – or just people around you? A study suggests traits like compassion may support your own well-being – https://theconversation.com/is-being-virtuous-good-for-you-or-just-people-around-you-a-study-suggests-traits-like-compassion-may-support-your-own-well-being-273641

Le « Board of Peace » pour Gaza de Donald Trump : diplomatie de façade et remise en cause de l’ordre international

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam, Responsable du programme « Politiques et relations internationales » à la faculté de langues étrangères, Université de Tours

Le Conseil de la Paix que Donald Trump vient d’instituer correspond pleinement à sa vision de la diplomatie : celle-ci est transactionnelle et fluide, non contrainte par les règles complexes de l’ONU et du droit international, et repose avant tout sur des relations personnelles et des intérêts immédiats, bien plus que sur des valeurs.


Présenté dans le contexte de la guerre à Gaza comme une initiative « historique » destinée à accompagner la négociation d’un cessez-le-feu durable et à structurer l’après-guerre à Gaza, le Board of Peace voulu par Donald Trump a été officiellement lancé ce 22 janvier, à Davos, en marge du Forum économique mondial, lors d’une cérémonie de signature largement médiatisée.

Derrière cette mise en scène, une question s’impose : le Board est-il un véritable instrument de négociation politique, ou avant tout un objet trumpien de communication et de personnalisation du pouvoir, conçu en concurrence avec les cadres multilatéraux existants ? À ce stade, il apparaît surtout comme l’expression d’une diplomatie transactionnelle, profondément individualisée et potentiellement déstabilisatrice pour l’ordre international.

Une initiative floue et transactionnelle

Derrière l’affichage diplomatique, c’est une logique de communication politique qui domine. Le lancement à Davos a surtout mis en scène un dispositif centré sur Trump, sans cadre juridique clair ni mandat précis, laissant planer la plus grande ambiguïté sur sa nature : institution internationale, forum informel ou structure privée adossée à la Maison Blanche ?

La vision de la paix sur laquelle s’appuie ce projet est avant tout marchande. À Davos, Trump parle, à propos de Gaza, de reconstruction et de valorisation territoriale dans un langage de promoteur immobilier, son propos étant illustré par la diffusion dans la salle d’images fabriquées par l’IA, présentant une Gaza rutilante.

La paix devient un projet économique, et l’accès au Board une transaction. Certes, l’adhésion au Board of Peace est, en soi, gratuite : aucun État n’est tenu de payer pour en être membre, y compris des pays relativement pauvres comme le Bélarus ou l’Ouzbékistan. En revanche, les États qui souhaiteraient obtenir un siège permanent devront verser une contribution financière. Le dispositif ne dispose d’aucun calendrier ni de mécanismes de décision ou de mise en œuvre des accords. En réalité, il relève davantage d’un instrument symbolique que d’un véritable processus de résolution des conflits. Si bien qu’il a pu être qualifié de « club privé pour diriger le monde », fondé sur l’affichage politique et la personnalisation du pouvoir.

Ce dispositif ne cherche pas à réformer les institutions existantes, mais à leur substituer une diplomatie parallèle, détachée du droit international et dominée par l’autorité personnelle du président américain. Il installe une logique ouvertement transactionnelle, où la participation repose sur l’échange d’intérêts : reconnaissance contre loyauté, accès contre financement, visibilité contre alignement stratégique.

Une remise en cause directe de l’ordre international existant

Le Board prétend promouvoir la paix tout en réunissant des acteurs qui ne partagent ni normes démocratiques ni principes juridiques communs. À ce stade, sur près de soixante États invités par l’administration Trump, environ 35 pays ont accepté de participer au Board of Peace.

Parmi eux figurent plusieurs régimes autoritaires ou illibéraux, tels que l’Azerbaïdjan, le Bélarus, l’Arabie saoudite, l’Ouzbékistan ou encore le Vietnam, ce qui interroge directement la cohérence politique et normative de cette initiative. La Russie de Vladimir Poutine, bien qu’officiellement invitée, n’a pas encore confirmé son adhésion, le Kremlin affirmant devoir en « clarifier les modalités ».

Cette configuration renforce l’ambiguïté du dispositif : l’adhésion, nous l’avons dit, est gratuite, mais l’accès à un siège permanent repose sur une contribution financière dite volontaire d’un milliard de dollars, ce qui donne au Conseil l’allure d’un assemblage diplomatique hétéroclite fondé sur des logiques transactionnelles plus que sur des principes communs. Il donne l’image d’un cercle où la légitimité se mesure moins aux valeurs qu’à l’utilité politique. Trump s’y impose comme arbitre central, concentrant la reconnaissance diplomatique et faisant de la paix un capital politique.

Ce fonctionnement prolonge une évolution déjà engagée par les États-Unis, marquée par une réticence croissante à s’inscrire dans des cadres juridiques contraignants.

Le Board n’ouvre donc pas une rupture ; il accélère une dynamique d’érosion. Il fait primer la décision politique immédiate sur la régulation collective et fragmente la gouvernance mondiale, désormais fondée sur des dispositifs informels et personnels.

L’Europe face au Board : méfiance, refus et lucidité stratégique

Des alliés majeurs des États-Unis comme l’Australie, le Japon ou la Corée du Sud n’ont pas confirmé leur participation, tandis que le Canada a été placé dans une situation encore plus singulière, son invitation ayant été unilatéralement retirée par Donald Trump, révélant le caractère à la fois politique et arbitraire de la composition du Board of Peace.

En Europe, l’initiative suscite d’emblée une méfiance marquée, et dans plusieurs cas un refus assumé d’y participer. La France, l’Allemagne, les Pays-Bas, la Belgique, l’Espagne, la Suède et la Norvège ont exprimé leurs réserves face à un dispositif dont la légitimité politique et juridique apparaît incertaine. Ce n’est pas un désaccord tactique, mais un désaccord de principe : participer reviendrait à cautionner une structure qui contourne les institutions internationales existantes, sans cadre juridique clair ni articulation avec le droit international.

Pour les Européens, le Board apparaît comme un facteur de déstabilisation plus que comme un outil de pacification. Il légitime l’idée que les grandes crises peuvent être traitées en dehors de toute architecture collective, alors que la diplomatie européenne repose précisément sur l’inverse : la centralité du droit, la primauté du multilatéralisme et la recherche de compromis institutionnalisés.

L’incompatibilité est aussi idéologique. Le Board incarne une diplomatie transactionnelle, peu sensible aux normes juridiques et aux valeurs démocratiques, là où l’UE continue de revendiquer une action extérieure fondée sur des principes. L’enjeu dépasse ainsi Gaza pour toucher à la définition même de ce qui constitue une action internationale légitime.

Enfin, le Board s’impose comme un marqueur supplémentaire de la fracture transatlantique. Il révèle une divergence croissante entre Washington, qui privilégie des formats ad hoc et personnalisés, et les Européens, attachés à une architecture collective, imparfaite mais structurante.

Le Board et Israël : attentes, désillusions et instrumentalisation politique

Pour Israël, l’initiative touche au cœur de ses intérêts sécuritaires. Dans le contexte de la guerre à Gaza, l’attente demeure celle d’un leadership américain capable de structurer l’après-conflit. Jérusalem ne peut donc ignorer un dispositif porté par Washington, même imparfait.

La méfiance est cependant apparue immédiatement. L’annonce de la composition du Board, qui inclut notamment la Turquie et le Qatar, a suscité de fortes réserves, du fait de l’hostilité politique croissante d’Ankara envers Israël, et des liens que Doha entretient avec le Hamas. Le bureau de Benyamin Nétanyahou a rappelé que la démarche n’avait pas été coordonnée avec Jérusalem… avant qu’Israël accepte finalement d’y participer, faute de pouvoir rester en dehors d’un processus directement piloté par l’administration américaine. Cette séquence illustre une constante de la diplomatie israélienne : Israël est directement concerné, il ne peut pas dire non, mais avance avec prudence structurelle.

La centralité accordée à Steve Witkoff comme émissaire principal est d’autant plus controversée que, selon plusieurs responsables israéliens, il aurait pesé pour empêcher une frappe américaine contre l’Iran mi-janvier, ce qui alimente une forte défiance à son égard, d’autant plus qu’il siège au cœur de l’Executive Board du Board of Peace, instance restreinte appelée à concentrer l’essentiel du pouvoir décisionnel.

Steve Witkoff agit comme l’émissaire personnel de Donald Trump bien au-delà du Board of Peace : c’est lui qui a conduit les échanges directs avec le ministre iranien des affaires étrangères et qui a été au cœur des négociations menées à Doha, notamment sur Gaza. Sa présence dans l’Executive Board du Board of Peace renvoie donc moins à un rôle symbolique qu’à une position de pouvoir réel, cet organe restreint concentrant l’essentiel de l’impulsion politique et du contrôle opérationnel de l’initiative. Cela fait de Witkoff à la fois un négociateur de terrain et l’un des pivots décisionnels du dispositif, ce qui explique l’ampleur des critiques qu’il suscite, notamment en Israël.

La question polarise en tout cas le débat israélien, entre acceptation pragmatique et rejet d’un mécanisme perçu comme dangereux par les ministres israéliens d’extrême droite, parce qu’il implique des acteurs qu’ils estiment hostiles ou complaisants envers le Hamas et qu’il s’oppose à leur objectif de contrôle direct et durable de Gaza au nom de la sécurité d’Israël.

Le Board devient ainsi le symbole de la tension permanente entre la dépendance stratégique d’Israël envers Washington et sa défiance face à une diplomatie trop fondée sur les liens personnels pour constituer un cadre fiable de long terme.

Du côté palestinien, la réaction est plus nuancée qu’on ne le dit souvent : l’Autorité palestinienne a accueilli l’initiative avec prudence mais sans hostilité frontale, y voyant une possible ouverture diplomatique, tandis que d’autres acteurs palestiniens dénoncent un dispositif conçu dans un cadre avant tout américano-israélien et ne leur offrant pas de garanties politiques réelles. En parallèle, des pays qui se présentent traditionnellement comme des défenseurs de la cause palestinienne – comme l’Égypte, l’Indonésie ou l’Arabie saoudite – mais qui sont aussi, pour certains, en paix avec Israël ou engagés dans des processus de normalisation, justifient leur participation au Board of Peace par un discours de pragmatisme diplomatique : mieux vaut siéger à la table des discussions pour peser sur la reconstruction de Gaza et l’après-guerre que rester en dehors d’un processus piloté par Washington.

Une rupture profonde

« Une fois que ce conseil sera complètement formé, nous pourrons faire à peu près tout ce que nous voulons ». Cette phrase prononcée par Trump à Davos résume le Board of Peace. Elle ne parle pas de paix, mais de pouvoir : une diplomatie fondée sur la maîtrise, la transaction et la personnalisation de l’action internationale.

Ce qui devait constituer le socle d’un processus durable au Moyen-Orient s’est transformé en un exercice de mise en scène, où l’ego présidentiel, l’argent et les projets portés par Witkoff ou Jared Kushner, gendre du président et businessman très actif dans la région, prennent le pas sur toute logique de négociation réelle. La paix n’y apparaît plus comme un objectif politique, mais comme un actif et un instrument de valorisation.

Plus qu’un projet de paix, le Board révèle une rupture profonde : celle d’un ordre international où la règle cède devant la transaction, où l’institution recule face à la personnalisation, et où la diplomatie devient un espace de démonstration de puissance plus qu’un lieu de construction du compromis.

The Conversation

Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Le « Board of Peace » pour Gaza de Donald Trump : diplomatie de façade et remise en cause de l’ordre international – https://theconversation.com/le-board-of-peace-pour-gaza-de-donald-trump-diplomatie-de-facade-et-remise-en-cause-de-lordre-international-274204

Des géants de l’armement aux start-up du logiciel : le secteur de la défense en pleine transformation

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Nicolas Minvielle, Spécialiste du design et de l’innovation, Audencia

Alors que le contexte géopolitique change en profondeur, de nouvelles entreprises émergent dans le monde de la défense. Après des décennies dominées par la puissance d’entreprises industrielles à l’ancienne, les start-up du logiciel deviennent des actrices clés. Retour sur une mutation en cours et décryptage des nouveaux enjeux qu’elle pose.


Dans le contexte de la guerre en Ukraine où l’« autonomie stratégique » devient un problème concret apparaît, à côté du traditionnel « complexe militaro-industriel »), un nouveau modèle que l’on pourrait décrire comme étant un complexe technocapitaliste. Un écosystème où start-up, fonds de capital-risque, fonds souverains, initiatives européennes et philanthropes techno-nationalistes investissent massivement dans la défense et la sécurité.

Non pas pour remplacer d’un coup la base industrielle et technologique de défense (BITD) – et ce malgré les annonces tonitruantes de certains de ces acteurs –, mais pour en modifier progressivement l’architecture, les acteurs et les temporalités.

Le dernier souper est servi

Le modèle qui domine encore aujourd’hui a pris forme dans les années 1990, avec la grande consolidation de l’industrie américaine de défense sous l’administration Clinton. Durant cette période, la base industrielle de défense américaine a connu une consolidation d’une ampleur inédite. Surnommé le last supper, ce moment d’accélération des fusions a donné naissance aux cinq géants qui dominent encore largement la défense américaine – Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon et General Dynamics. Quelques grands maîtres d’œuvre – ces fameux Big Five – se partagent ainsi depuis l’essentiel des grands programmes : avions de combat, frégates, satellites, systèmes de commandement intégrés.




À lire aussi :
Réarmement : l’indispensable coopétition entre petites, moyennes et grandes entreprises de la défense


Leur logique est celle de la commande publique lourde : des besoins définis par l’État, des appels d’offres longs, des cycles de développement qui se comptent en décennies, une forte intégration verticale, une relation quasi organique avec les ministères de la Défense. Ce modèle assure une certaine visibilité budgétaire et une capacité à gérer des systèmes d’une complexité extrême. Il produit aussi une grande inertie tant sur le plan technologique que procédural.

L’arrivée du monde du logiciel

Depuis une dizaine d’années, ce paysage est bousculé par des acteurs qui viennent, pour l’essentiel, du monde du logiciel : Anduril, Palantir, Helsing, Shield AI, et en France des entreprises comme Command AI. Leur point de départ n’est pas une plateforme matérielle (un avion, un navire, un char), mais le logiciel : fusion de données, IA, capteurs distribués, systèmes autonomes, couches de command & control.

Leurs méthodes de travail et de production, héritées de la tech consistent en itérations rapides, tests fréquents, déploiements progressifs, adaptation au retour du terrain plutôt qu’exécution d’un cahier des charges figé. Aux États-Unis, des dispositifs comme les Other Transaction Authority (OTA) ont été créés pour faciliter cette collaboration avec des acteurs non traditionnels, ce qui permet d’en contourner certaines lourdeurs réglementaires.

Traverser la « vallée de la mort »

Au sein de ces organisations, on sait prototyper plus vite, expérimenter plus tôt, et ce qu’elles que soient leurs origines géographiques. Mais le cœur du problème reste entier : beaucoup de ces start-up valident un démonstrateur… puis butent sur la « vallée de la mort » entre prototypes financés en mode agile et programmes pérennes inscrits en loi de finances. L’appareil budgétaire, taillé pour les grands industriels historiques, peine à absorber des solutions issues de ce nouveau monde.

En Europe, on tente d’importer cet esprit à travers des marchés d’innovation, des programmes d’expérimentation accélérée, des dispositifs dual-use. Mais la culture d’acquisition reste largement calibrée pour les grands programmes industriels, plutôt que pour des produits logiciels qui changent de version plusieurs fois par an.

La défense devient une classe d’actifs

Parallèlement à cette rupture technologique, c’est la structure du financement de la défense qui se transforme. La sécurité n’est plus seulement affaire de budgets ministériels ; elle devient aussi un segment identifié du capital-risque. Aux côtés des commandes publiques et des investissements des grands groupes se constitue un nouvel écosystème d’investisseurs composé :

  • des fonds privés spécialisés dans la défense, la sécurité et les technologies dites « civilisationnelles » (IA, autonomie, cyber, spatial, résilience d’infrastructures) ;

  • des fonds souverains et publics qui cherchent à orienter l’innovation vers des priorités de souveraineté ;

  • des dispositifs européens (fonds de fonds, véhicules dédiés) qui tentent de structurer un marché encore fragmenté ;

  • des philanthropes techno-nationalistes qui investissent par conviction politique ou civilisationnelle autant que pour le rendement (Peter Thiel par exemple).

Tous partagent la conviction que certaines technologiesIA militaire, lutte anti-drones, robotique autonome, surveillance avancée, sécurité spatiale – vont devenir structurantes, et que la valeur se créera très en amont, bien avant les grands contrats publics. Le schéma de l’industriel finançant la R&D sur fonds propres pour vendre ensuite un produit à marge encadrée recule. Le risque est socialisé dans le capital : les VC, les fonds souverains, les programmes européens prennent le risque initial, en misant sur l’hypothèse qu’un jour, une partie de la commande publique basculera vers ces nouvelles solutions.

Ce mouvement ne remplace pas le financement traditionnel par les États ; il l’encercle, le complète et le pousse à se réorganiser. Ministères de la Défense, Union européenne, Otan tentent désormais de co-concevoir des instruments (fonds, equity facilities, fonds d’innovation) pour ne pas laisser au seul capital privé le soin de définir, par ses paris, l’architecture future de la BITD.

Un dialogue nécessaire entre deux modèles

On l’aura compris, dans ce nouvel environnement, deux grandes logiques industrielles cohabitent. Du côté des industriels historiques, la chaîne de valeur part de l’expression de besoin : l’État formalise une exigence (un avion de combat, un système de défense antiaérienne, une frégate de nouvelle génération), lance un appel d’offres, sélectionne un industriel, et s’engage sur des décennies. La robustesse, la certification, l’intégration dans des architectures complexes sont centrales. Les marges sont encadrées, le risque est partagé, mais le tempo reste celui du temps long.

Les start-up de défense, à l’inverse, développent des produits avant que le besoin ne soit formalisé. Elles financent le développement puis se tournent vers les États en disant, en substance : « voilà ce que nous savons déjà faire, regardez si vous pouvez vous en passer ».

Cette asymétrie se voit dans la façon dont on conçoit les systèmes. Là où les grands industriels ont longtemps construit d’abord la plateforme matérielle, puis ajouté des couches logicielles au fil du temps, les nouveaux entrants adoptent une logique software first.

Un nouveau rapport de forces

Le cas d’Anduril est emblématique. Au cœur de sa stratégie se trouve un système d’exploitation tactique, conçu pour connecter capteurs, drones, effecteurs et flux de données. À partir de cette brique logicielle, l’entreprise déploie ensuite ses propres drones, capteurs, systèmes d’armes, en gardant la maîtrise de l’architecture logicielle qui fait la jonction. Le tout étant principalement focalisé sur La clientèle militaire.

Cette inversion du rapport de force – la valeur se loge dans le logiciel, la plateforme matérielle devient, jusqu’à un certain point, substituable – rend très concrète la question de la souveraineté : qui contrôle la brique logicielle qui orchestre l’ensemble ? Qui décide du rythme des mises à jour ? Où se situent les dépendances critiques ?

Elle rebat aussi les cartes du Hi–Low mix : comment articuler des systèmes lourds, rares et coûteux (avion de combat, frégate) avec des objets plus simples, distribués, produits en masse (drones, capteurs, effecteurs low cost). Les nouveaux acteurs occupent volontiers ce bas et ce milieu du spectre, la « masse agile » ; les industriels historiques doivent, eux, apprendre à descendre vers des produits plus modulaires, plus rapides, tout en continuant à garantir l’excellence sur les systèmes de très haute complexité.

Des horizons temporels différents

La rencontre entre capital-risque et défense met aussi au jour une tension structurante : celle des horizons temporels. Le Venture Capital (VC, ou capital-risque) raisonne en cycles de cinq à sept ans, avec l’idée que l’entreprise doit, soit atteindre une taille critique, soit être rachetée, soit entrer en bourse. Les ministères de la défense, eux, raisonnent sur vingt ou trente ans, voire davantage.

Ce décalage pose des questions très concrètes. Que se passe-t-il si un acteur clé de l’IA tactique ou du contre-drone, devenu indispensable sur le terrain, se retrouve fragilisé par la conjoncture financière, ou racheté par un acteur étranger ? Comment garantir la continuité d’une capacité opérationnelle dont la brique critique est portée par une entreprise structurée selon les logiques de la tech ?

Trois idées structurantes

À l’inverse, la défense ne peut plus ignorer le rythme d’innovation propre au logiciel. Attendre dix ans pour figer une architecture revient souvent à se condamner à déployer des systèmes déjà dépassés. D’où la montée en puissance de trois idées structurantes :

  • Le dual-use : privilégier les technologies qui ont, par construction, des débouchés civils et militaires (cyber, spatial, IA, robotique, résilience d’infrastructures). Cela élargit la base industrielle, répartit le risque et évite de concentrer des capacités critiques sur des marchés de niche.

  • Le « software-defined, hardware-enabled » : concevoir des systèmes où le cœur de valeur est dans l’algorithme (détection, fusion de capteurs, décision), et où le matériel – drone, capteur, effecteur – peut évoluer plus librement.

  • La modularisation et les architectures ouvertes : prévoir dès la conception des points d’insertion réguliers pour de nouvelles briques logicielles, de nouveaux capteurs, sans devoir réinventer tout le système.

Ces leviers ne font pas disparaître la tension entre temps court financier et temps long doctrinal, mais ils la rendent plus gérable. L’État peut, en théorie, remplacer une brique sans casser l’ensemble. Et le capital peut se concentrer sur des modules identifiables plutôt que sur des mégaprogrammes monolithiques.

BFM, 2025.

Jungle et zoo ou concilier l’inconciliable

On décrit parfois la situation actuelle comme la rencontre d’un « zoo » – celui des grands programmes, très régulés, très documentés, pensés pour durer – et d’une « jungle » peuplée d’insurgés technologiques, financés par les VC, en constante exploration.

Les nouveaux acteurs occupent des niches, souvent à la périphérie des grands programmes, mais avec un fort potentiel de diffusion. Pour l’instant, une grande partie d’entre eux reste dépendante de tremplins publics (contrats d’étude, expérimentations, appels à projets). Le marché réel, celui des grands volumes, demeure largement capté par les industriels historiques.

Dans le même temps, et le point est clé, les investisseurs privés se concentrent progressivement sur des profils plus mûrs : des entreprises qui ont déjà fait la preuve de leur solidité technique, de leur capacité à dialoguer avec les armées, de leur compréhension des contraintes réglementaires. On s’éloigne du fantasme de la start-up de défense sortie de nulle part pour se rapprocher d’acteurs hybrides, où se mêlent les cultures tech, industrielle et stratégique. Dit autrement, malgré le marketing ambiant, les investisseurs préfèrent accélérer des sociétés ayant une forme de maturité plutôt qu’une forme de risque extrême à tout va.

Quelles réponses européennes ?

Pour l’Europe, l’enjeu n’est pas de choisir entre la jungle et le zoo, ni de rêver à une table rase. Il est d’apprendre à articuler ces deux univers :

  • en assumant plus clairement une politique industrielle de défense, qui fixe des priorités et des lignes rouges ;

  • en construisant des passerelles institutionnelles et financières entre fonds souverains, VC et industriels historiques ;

  • en pensant la souveraineté non seulement en termes de plates-formes matérielles, mais aussi en termes d’architectures logicielles, de données, de standards.

Le « complexe technocapitaliste » ne supprime pas le complexe militaro-industriel. Il le met à l’épreuve, l’oblige à se transformer et offre, si l’on sait le canaliser, de nouveaux leviers pour renforcer une souveraineté européenne qui ne peut plus se contenter de dépendre des choix technologiques et politiques des autres.

The Conversation

Nicolas Minvielle est membre du comité d’orientation de La Fabrique de la Cité, et du collectif Making Tomorrow

Marie Roussie travaille au sein de Alt-a et est membre du Collectif Making Tomorrow.

ref. Des géants de l’armement aux start-up du logiciel : le secteur de la défense en pleine transformation – https://theconversation.com/des-geants-de-larmement-aux-start-up-du-logiciel-le-secteur-de-la-defense-en-pleine-transformation-273707