What Olympic athletes see that viewers don’t: Machine-made snow makes ski racing faster and riskier – and it’s everywhere

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Keith Musselman, Assistant Professor in Geography, Mountain Hydrology, and Climate Change, University of Colorado Boulder

U.S. skier Rosie Brennan leads a group during the women’s team sprint classic cross-country skiing competition at the 2022 Winter Olympics. AP Photo/Aaron Favila

When viewers tune in to the 2026 Winter Olympics, they will see pristine, white slopes, groomed tracks and athletes racing over snow-covered landscapes, thanks in part to a storm that blanketed the mountain venues of the Italian Alps with fresh powder just in time.

But at lower elevations, where cross-country and other events are held, athletes and organizers have been contending with rain; thin, sometimes slushy snow; and icy, machine-made surfaces.

“Most of our races are on machine-made snow,” 2026 U.S. Olympic team cross-country skier Rosie Brennan told us ahead of the Games. “TV production is great at making it look like we are in wintry, snowy places, but this year has been particularly bad.”

A male skier races down a slick track with flags flying along the wall beside him
Machine-made snow increasingly makes the Winter Games possible. It’s also slicker to race and harder to fall on. Here, Olympic skier Ben Ogden of the U.S. competes during the sprint of the FIS Cross-Country World Cup Tour de Ski in Toblach, Italy, on Dec. 28, 2024.
Federica Vanzetta/NordicFocus/Getty Images

As scientists who study mountain snow, water resources and the human impact of warming winters, we see winter’s changes through data: rising temperatures, shrinking snowpack, shorter snow seasons.

Olympic athletes experience changing winter conditions personally, in ways the public and scientists rarely do. Lack of snowfall and more frequent rain affect when and where they can train, how they train and how dangerous the terrain can become.

We talked with Brennan and cross-country skiers Ben Ogden and Jack Young as they were preparing for the 2026 Winter Games. Their experiences reflect what many athletes describe: a sport increasingly defined not by the variability of natural winter but by the reliability of industrialized snowmaking.

What the cameras don’t show

Snowmaking technology makes it possible to create halfpipes for freestyle snowboarding and skiing competitions. It also allows for races when natural snow is scarce – the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing relied entirely on machine-made snow for many races.

However, machine-made snow creates a very different surface than natural snow, changing the race.

Three skiers sit at the top of a ski jump. Their view shows how much dry, snow-free ground is around the jump area
Athletes train at the ski jumping arena prior to the Open Italian Championship in Predazzo, a 2026 Winter Olympics venue, on Dec. 23, 2025.
Stefano Rellandini/AFP via Getty Images

In clouds, each unique snowflake shape is determined by the temperature and humidity. Once formed, the iconic star shape begins to slowly erode as its crystals become rounded spheres. In this way, natural snow provides a variety of textures and depths: soft powder after a storm, firm or brittle snow in cold weather, and slushy, wet snow during rain or melt events.

Machine-made snow varies less in texture or quality. It begins and ends its life as an ice pellet surrounded by a thin film of liquid water. That makes it slower to change, easier to shape, and, once frozen, it hardens in place.

‘They’re faster, icier and carry more risk’

When artificial snow is being made, the sound is piercing – a high-pitched hiss roars from the pressurized nozzles of snow guns. These guns spew water mixed with compressed air, and it freezes upon contact with the cold air outside, creating small, dense ice particles. The drops sting exposed skin, as one of us, Agnes Macy, knows well as a former competitive skier.

Snow machines then push out artificial snow onto the racecourse. Often, the trails are the only ribbons of snow in sight – a white strip surrounded by brown mud and dead grass.

Female skiers race through a town with a church beside them, fans along the track and lots of snow-free ground outside the snowy race course.
The surrounding landscape was mostly snow-free when Rosie Brennan competed in the individual sprint at an FIS Cross-Country World Cup event in Drammen, Norway, on March 3, 2022.
Federico Modica/NordicFocus/Getty Images

“Courses built for natural snow feel completely different when covered in man-made snow,” Brennan, 37, said. “They’re faster, icier, and carry more risk than anyone might imagine for cross-country skiing.”

There’s nothing quite like skiing on fresh snow. After a storm brings a blanket of light, fluffy powder, it can almost feel as though you’re floating. The snow is forgiving.

On artificial snow, skiers carry more speed into downhill runs. Downhill racers may relish the speed, but cross-country skis don’t have metal edges like downhill skis do, so step-turning or skidding around fast, icy corners can make an athlete feel out of control. It “requires a different style of skiing, skill sets and strengths than I grew up learning,” Brennan said.

How athletes adapt, with help from science

Athletes must adjust their technique and prepare their skis differently, depending on the snow conditions.

At elite levels, this is science. Snow crystal morphology, temperature, ski base material and structure, ski stiffness, skier technique and environmental conditions all interact to determine an athlete’s speed.

How snow forms. NBC News Learn.

Before cross-country, or Nordic, races, ski technicians compare multiple ski pairs prepared with different base surfaces and waxes. They evaluate how quickly each ski glides and how long it maintains that glide – traits that depend on the friction between the ski and the snow.

Compared to natural snow, machine-made snow generally provides a more durable and longer-lasting surface. In cross-country racing, that allows for more efficient and stronger pushes without skis or poles sinking deep into snow. Additionally, improvements in the machines used to groom snow now provide harder and more homogeneous surfaces that permit faster skiing.

Two male skiers on tangled on the ground after a crash.
Russia’s Alexander Terentev, right, and Czech Republic’s Michal Novak crash during a men’s cross-country sprint quarterfinal race at the FIS Nordic World Ski Championships in Oberstdorf, Germany, on Feb. 25, 2021.
AP Photo/Matthias Schrader

While fast skiing is the goal, ski crashes are also the most common cause of injury in the Winter Olympics. With machine-made snow, ski jump competitors and anyone who falls is also landing on a harder surface, which can increase the risk of injury.

Why winters are changing

Weather can always deal surprises, but long-term climate trends are shifting what can be expected of a typical winter.

In the Alps, air temperature has increased by about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) since the late 1800s, before rising fossil fuel use began increasing the levels of greenhouse gases trapping heat in the atmosphere. Globally, 2025 was the third-warmest year on record, following 2024 and 2023.

For mountain regions, these warmer conditions have consequences. Snow melts earlier and more frequently in midwinter, especially during warm spells that used to be rare.

Midwinter snowmelt events are occurring more often at higher elevations and earlier in the season across many mountain ranges of western North America. At the same time, the snow line – the elevation where precipitation shifts from snow to rain – is moving upslope.

Warming in high mountain environments is also causing the threshold where rain turns to snow to rise by tens of meters per decade in some regions. This means storms that once blanketed entire valleys in snow now may deliver snow only to upper slopes, with rain falling below.

Male ski racers turn a corner on a race course.
Taking sharp corners on icy surfaces isn’t easy on cross-country skis. Here, U.S. Olympic skier Jack Young competes in the individual sprint finals of the FIS Cross-Country World Cup Oberhof on Jan. 17, 2026, in Oberhof, Germany.
Leo Authamayou/NordicFocus/Getty Images

Together, these changes mean that many winter storms produce less snow, over less area, and for shorter durations than they did a generation ago.

Training venues

The changing winter landscape has also transformed how athletes train. Traditional training venues, such as glaciers once used for summer skiing, have become unreliable. In August 2025, the Hintertux Glacier – the only year-round training center operating in Austria – announced its first temporary closure.

“It’s been increasingly hard to make plans for locations to train between races,” Brennan said. “Snow reliability isn’t great in many places. We often rely on going to higher elevations for a better chance of snow.”

Athletes race on short skis on wheels.
Biathlon athletes practice their sport on wheels at the Loop One Festival in Munich’s Olympic Park on Oct. 19, 2025.
Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images

Higher-elevation training can help, but it concentrates athletes in fewer places, reduces access for younger skiers due to the remoteness and raises costs for national teams. Some of these glaciers – like Canada’s Haig Glacier or Alaska’s Eagle Glacier – are accessible only by helicopter. When skiers can’t get to snow, dryland training on rollerskis is one of the only options.

Winter athletes see the climate changing

Because winter is their workplace, athletes often notice subtle changes before those changes show up in long-term statistics.

Even athletes in their earlier 20s, like Young, said they have noticed the rapid expansion of snowmaking infrastructure at many racing venues in recent years. Snowmaking requires large amounts of energy and water. It is also a clear sign that organizers see winters becoming less dependable.

Winter athletes like Canadian Dahria Beatty are seeing their environment change as temperatures rise.

Athletes also witness how communities are affected when poor snow conditions mean fewer visitors. “In the Alps, when conditions are bad, it is obvious how much it affects the communities,” Ogden, 25, said. “Their tourism-based livelihoods are so often negatively affected, and their quality of life changes.”

Many winter athletes are speaking publicly about their concerns. Groups such as Protect Our Winters, founded by professional snowboarder Jeremy Jones, work to advance policies that protect outdoor places for future generations.

A wintry look, but an uncertain future

For athletes at the 2026 Olympics, the variability within the Olympic region – snow at higher elevations, rain at lower ones – reflects a broader truth: The stability of winter is diminishing.

Athletes know this better than anyone. They race in it. They train in it. They depend on it.

The Winter Games will go on this year. The snow will look good on television. But at the same time, winter is changing.

The Conversation

Keith Musselman receives funding from the National Science Foundation. He is a member of the Science Alliance for the non-profit Protect Our Winters.

Agnes Macy receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

ref. What Olympic athletes see that viewers don’t: Machine-made snow makes ski racing faster and riskier – and it’s everywhere – https://theconversation.com/what-olympic-athletes-see-that-viewers-dont-machine-made-snow-makes-ski-racing-faster-and-riskier-and-its-everywhere-274806

How women are reinterpreting the menstrual taboos in Chinese Buddhism

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Megan Bryson, Associate Professor of Religious Studies, University of Tennessee

‘Blood Pond Hell ‘detail depicted in a 1940 Taipei Hell Scroll. The Trustees of the British Museum

In many religions and cultures, women who are menstruating or who just gave birth are not allowed to enter sacred sites, such as temples, or participate in religious rituals. This is because they are often seen as ritually impure.

Early Christians cited menstruation as the reason for not allowing female deacons or priests. Modern Catholic teachings do not express this attitude directly, but some Catholic feminists argue that views of women’s blood pollution still influence the church’s position against women’s ordination.

According to certain Hindu texts, menstruating women should be cut off from the rest of the household and avoid participating in ritual life. In Hinduism, as well as other religions and cultures, traditional taboos related to menstruation and childbirth are, however, no longer practiced widely.

An extreme attitude toward the ritual pollution of menstruation and childbirth appears in a Chinese Buddhist text called the “Blood Bowl Scripture,” which I have studied in my research on East Asian Buddhism.

This text, written in China by the 13th century, spread to Japan soon after. It describes a complicated chain of events in which a woman gives birth at home, then washes her bloody clothes in a nearby river. People downriver don’t realize that the water has been polluted with the blood of childbirth, and they use the water to make tea that they offer to the gods. As punishment for offending the gods with tainted water, the woman who gave birth is condemned to fall into the “Blood Pond Hell” after she dies.

Rebirth in the hells is one possible form of reincarnation in Buddhism, which teaches that the quality of people’s karma in their present life determines where they are reborn in their next life. The “Blood Pond Hell” is one of many kinds of hells found in traditional Buddhism. According to Buddhist worldviews, people are reborn in the hells when their bad karma severely outweighs their good karma. However, after people serve their time in the hells, they can be reborn in other realms.

Japanese Buddhists expanded on this idea to claim that the pollution of menstrual blood alone led to rebirth in the Blood Pond Hell, which condemns all menstruating women to this kind of suffering.

A painting showing the heads of women in a pond of blood with a bodhisattva, seated on a lotus, floating above them.
Mural depicting the hell of blood and filth, Dizang Temple, Yunnan, China.
Megan Bryson, CC BY

Most educated Buddhist monks in premodern China rejected the Blood Bowl Scripture because it didn’t come from India. Buddhism originated in India, and Buddhist scriptures are supposed to be the words of the Buddha, so the Blood Bowl Scripture was not included in official scriptural catalogs. But the text and its practices became an important part of popular Chinese Buddhism.

For example, a famous Chinese novel from the 17th century, “The Plum in the Golden Vase,” describes its female characters practicing rituals based on the Blood Bowl Scripture.

Blood Pond Hell beliefs and practices still exist today. However, they are not as common as they used to be – and women have developed new interpretations.

Beliefs in modern China

For most women in human history, giving birth has been a requirement, not a choice. Yet, for women in premodern China and Japan, fulfilling the social obligation to have children simultaneously condemned them to “Blood Pond Hell.”

The “Blood Bowl Scripture” encourages adult children to hire Buddhist monks to perform rituals that will save their mothers from this unpleasant fate.

How hell realms are interpreted in Buddhism.

Though not all Buddhists today believe in the hells, including the “Blood Pond Hell,” some do. Visitors to temples and Buddhist theme parks in Asia may find paintings or three-dimensional dioramas of women in a bloody pond.

People who do not believe in the hells may still perform the rituals to save their mothers from the “Blood Pond Hell” to show love and gratitude. In some parts of China, women preemptively save themselves from the “Blood Pond Hell” by performing their own rituals, usually as part of women’s religious associations.

Emphasizing mothers’ self-sacrifice

In many parts of China, middle-aged and older women form voluntary religious associations. The religious associations get together twice a month and on holidays to recite scriptures, make offerings to the gods and go on pilgrimages to sacred sites.

Most women who participate are already menopausal, with grown children. Pre-menopausal women are allowed to participate if they aren’t menstruating.

In the religious associations of southeast China’s Fujian province, women perform a ritual called “Returning to the Buddha” that aims to purify them of bad karma before they die. In this ritual, women atone for different kinds of bad karma, which includes spilling the polluted water they used to clean up after childbirth.

A group of women standing with their backs to the camera, facing a deity in a temple.
Women reciting scriptures together while facing a statue of their main temple’s deity in southwest China.
Megan Bryson, CC BY

Women’s religious associations across China also recite scriptures to repay mothers’ kindness. Reciting scriptures is seen as creating good karma, which the women dedicate to their mothers. These scriptures still portray uterine blood as polluting, but they also recognize the sacrifices mothers make in bringing their children into the world.

One such scripture describes how mothers sacrifice for their children first in life, then in death when they fall into the “Blood Pond Hell.” The women who recite these texts both express gratitude for their mothers’ sacrifices and recognize their own sacrifices as mothers.

Reframing the female body

In addition to reinterpreting the “Blood Pond Hell” through the lens of mothers’ sacrifice, women in modern China have developed new interpretations of how female bodies are portrayed in “Blood Pond Hell” beliefs and practices.

Buddhist texts often claim that being reborn as a woman is a karmic punishment, and some texts describe female bodies with disgust. For example, a repentance text for saving women from the “Blood Pond Hell” claims that menstruation is caused by 12-headed worms living in the birth canal that vomit blood and pus once a month.

However, in my research I encountered a sermon about this repentance text by the Taiwanese nun Venerable Shi Changyin. She claims that “worms” really meant “bacteria” or “cells,” but premodern people lacked the biomedical terminology to express this properly.

Changyin’s reinterpretation of worms as cells reflects other ways for women to think about the blood of menstruation and childbirth. The negative views of female bodies expressed in the “Blood Bowl Scripture” are one perspective among many in contemporary Chinese culture.

Buddhist teachings that downplay the importance of gender, traditional Chinese medicine, and biomedicine offer other perspectives on reproduction and female bodies. Many scholars and practitioners of Chinese Buddhism reject “Blood Pond Hell” beliefs as remnants of negative attitudes toward female bodies in early Buddhism.

They see Mahayana Buddhism, the main form practiced in China, as promoting gender equality. In traditional Chinese medicine, blood is an important part of women’s health as a source of vitality rather than impurity. And biomedicine avoids concepts like purity and pollution when treating issues related to menstruation and childbirth.

A narrative of empowerment

The “Blood Bowl Scripture” demonizes the blood of menstruation and childbirth and, by extension, reproductive female bodies in general. Yet many women, past and present, have participated in the scripture’s rituals to save their mothers or themselves from this fate.

It is important not to just dismiss women’s participation as internalized misogyny, but to understand what women get out of these practices.

Women in Chinese Buddhism have taken the initiative in emphasizing maternal self-sacrifice over ritual pollution and in using other frameworks to make sense of menstruation and childbirth.

The Conversation

Megan Bryson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How women are reinterpreting the menstrual taboos in Chinese Buddhism – https://theconversation.com/how-women-are-reinterpreting-the-menstrual-taboos-in-chinese-buddhism-272175

Why corporate America is mostly staying quiet as federal immigration agents show up at its doors

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Alessandro Piazza, Assistant Professor of Strategic Management, Rice University

People protest U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement inside a Target store in Minneapolis on Jan. 31, 2026.
AP Photo / Julia Demaree Nikhinson

When U.S. Border Patrol agents entered a Target store in Richfield, Minnesota, in early January, detaining two employees, it marked a new chapter in the relationship between corporate America and the federal government.

Across the Twin Cities, federal immigration enforcement operations have turned businesses into sites of confrontation — with agents in store parking lots rounding up day laborers, armed raids on restaurants and work authorization inspections conducted in tactical gear.

Some retailers report revenue drops of 50% to 80% as customers stay home out of fear. Along Lake Street and in East St. Paul, areas within the Twin Cities, an estimated 80% of businesses have closed their doors at some point since the operations began.

Then came the killing of U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti, the latter of which came a day after widespread protests and a one-day business blackout involving over 700 establishments.

The response of corporate America to those killings was instructive — both for what was said and left unsaid. After the Pretti killing, more than 60 CEOs from Minnesota’s largest companies — Target, 3M, UnitedHealth Group, U.S. Bancorp, General Mills, Best Buy and others — signed a public letter organized by the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce. The letter called for “peace,” “focused cooperation” among local, state and federal officials, and a “swift and durable solution” so that families, workers and businesses could return to normal.

What it didn’t do was name Pretti, mention federal immigration enforcement or criticize any specific policy or official. It read less like moral leadership and more like corporate risk management.

As a researcher who studies corporate political engagement, I think the Minnesota CEO letter is a window into a broader shift. For years, companies could take progressive stances with limited risk — activists would punish them if they remained silent on an issue, but conservatives rarely retaliated when they spoke up. That asymmetry has collapsed. Minneapolis shows what corporate activism looks like when the risks cut both ways: hedged language, no names named and calls for calm.

A shifting pattern

In 2022, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, corporate America was remarkably quiet compared with its vocal stances on LGBTQ+ rights or the war in Ukraine.

The explanation: Companies tend to hedge on issues that are contested and polarizing. In my research with colleagues on companies taking stances on LGBTQ+ rights in the United States, I’ve found that businesses frame their stances narrowly when issues are unsettled — focusing on workplace concerns and internal constituencies like employees rather than broader advocacy. Only after issues are legally or socially settled do some companies shift to clearer activism, adopting the language of social movements: injustice, moral obligation, calls to action.

Men in law enforcement garb walk through a store.
U.S. Border Patrol’s Gregory Bovino walks through a Target store on Jan. 11, 2026, in St. Paul, Minn.
AP Photo/Adam Gray

By that logic, the Minnesota CEOs’ caution makes sense. The Trump administration’s federal immigration enforcement policy is deeply contested. There’s no clear legal or social settlement in sight.

But something else has changed since 2022 — something that goes beyond any particular issue.

For years, corporate activism operated under a favorable asymmetry that allowed them to stake out public positions on controversial topics without much negative consequence.

That is, activists and employees pressured companies to speak out on progressive causes, and silence carried real costs. Meanwhile, conservatives largely subscribed to free-market economist Milton Friedman’s view that the only social responsibility of business is to increase its profits. They generally didn’t demand corporate stances on their issues, and they didn’t organize sustained punishment for progressive corporate speech.

That asymmetry has collapsed

During the Black Lives Matter protests of 2020, corporations rushed to declare their commitments to racial justice, diversity and social responsibility. Many of those same companies have since quietly dismantled diversity, equity and inclusion programs, walked back public commitments and gone silent on issues they once called moral imperatives. It appears that their allegedly deeply held values were contingent on a favorable political environment. When the risks shifted, the values evaporated.

The turning point may have been Disney’s opposition to Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” law in 2022. The company faced criticism from employees and activists for not doing enough – and then fierce retaliation from Florida’s government, which stripped Disney of self-governing privileges it had held for 55 years.

In other high-profile examples, Delta lost tax breaks in Georgia after ending discounts for National Rifle Association members following the Parkland shooting. And Bud Light lost billions in market value after a single social media promotion that featured Dylan Mulvaney, a transgender influencer.

Conservatives learned to play the game that progressive activists invented. And unlike consumer boycotts, government retaliation carries a different kind of weight.

People visit a theme park.
People visit Magic Kingdom Park at Walt Disney World Resort in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., on April 22, 2022.
AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey

Minneapolis reveals the new calculus

What makes Minneapolis distinctive is that the federal government isn’t a distant policy actor debating legislation in Washington. It’s a physical presence in companies’ daily operations. When federal agents can show up at your store, detain your employees, raid your parking lot and audit your hiring records, the calculation about whether to criticize federal policy looks very different than when the worst-case scenario is an angry tweet from a politician.

Research finds that politicians are less willing to engage with CEOs who take controversial stances – even in private meetings – regardless of local economic conditions or the politicians’ own views on business. The chilling effect is real. As one observer noted, Minnesota companies communicated through industry associations specifically “to avoid direct exposure to possible retaliation.”

“De-escalation,” then, has become the corporate buzzword of choice because, as one news report in The Wall Street Journal noted, it “sounds humane while remaining politically noncommittal.” It points to a process goal – reduce conflict, restore order – rather than a contested diagnosis of responsibility.

This is the triple bind facing businesses in Minneapolis: pressure from the federal government on one side, pressure from activists and employees on the other, and the economic devastation from enforcement itself — comparable in some areas to the COVID-19 pandemic — crushing them in the middle. It’s a situation that rewards silence and punishes principle, and most companies are making the predictable choice.

And yet the situation within companies is also full of internal tensions, whether they’re companies headquartered in Minnesota or not. At tech company Palantir, which holds contracts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, employees took to internal Slack channels after Pretti’s death to express that they felt “not proud” to work for a company tied to what they described as “the bad guys.” Similar sentiments could be seen at elsewhere, where rank-and-file employees expressed far more vocal outrage than their bosses.

What comes next

The Minnesota CEO letter is what corporate political engagement looks like when the risks run in every direction: no injustice framing, no attribution of blame, no names named — just calls for stability and cooperation.

As a local Minneapolis writer put it in an op-ed: “Stand up, or sit down … because the Minnesotans who are standing up? We don’t recognize you.”

It’s not cowardice, exactly. It’s what the research predicts when an issue is contested and the costs of speaking cut both ways.

But it does mean Americans shouldn’t expect corporations to lead when government power is directly at stake. The conditions that enabled corporate activism on LGBTQ+ rights — an asymmetry where speaking out was relatively low-risk — don’t exist here.

Until the political landscape shifts, the hedged statement and the cautious coalition letter are the new normal. Corporate activism, it turns out, might always have been more about positioning than principle.

The Conversation

Alessandro Piazza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why corporate America is mostly staying quiet as federal immigration agents show up at its doors – https://theconversation.com/why-corporate-america-is-mostly-staying-quiet-as-federal-immigration-agents-show-up-at-its-doors-274746

You’ve reached your weight loss goal on GLP-1 medications – what now?

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Amy J. Sheer, Associate Professor of Medicine, University of Florida

GLP-1 drugs have ushered in a new era in weight loss.

In just a few years, medications such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, known by the brand names Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound, have gone from niche diabetes treatments to household names, reshaping how America thinks about weight loss.

A November 2025 Kaiser Family Foundation poll found that 1 in 8 U.S. adults have tried a GLP-1 medication for weight loss, diabetes or another condition. And we expect that number to rise now that one of these drugs, Wegovy, has become available in pill form, increasing its accessibility for many people.

These drugs’ ability to help patients lose anywhere from 15% to 20% of body weight has made them one of the most powerful nonsurgical obesity treatments ever seen.

GLP-1, short for glucagon-like peptide-1, is a hormone your gut normally makes that helps control blood sugar and appetite after eating. It signals the pancreas to release insulin when blood sugar rises and slows how quickly food leaves the stomach, which helps people feel full sooner.

Modern GLP-1 medications are designed to amplify these effects, leading to better blood sugar control and substantial weight loss for many patients.

But success brings a new question that millions of people are confronting: What happens after the weight comes off? And just as importantly, what should patients do when their progress suddenly stalls, even while still on the medication?

As an obesity medicine physician, I’ve seen firsthand how life-changing GLP-1 drug therapy can be for my patients. But I also remind each of them that no medication – GLP-1s included – replaces the foundational importance of nutrition, physical activity, sleep and mental health. These lifestyle pillars are essential for maintaining muscle and bone health, preventing significant weight regain and supporting long-term cardiovascular and metabolic health.

The key is simple but critical: Every weight-loss or health plan must be tailored to each person.

GLP-1 medications bind to receptors at sites throughout the body, including the stomach and on appetite and reward centers in the brain.

How the body responds to weight loss

In 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that more than 40% of American adults live with obesity. For most people, the real challenge isn’t losing weight – it’s keeping it off.

Researchers have known this for decades. As early as the mid-20th century, studies of commercial diet programs showed that while short-term weight loss was common, regaining weight long term was the norm.

This is because when people lose weight, the body’s natural inclination is to return to its previous weight – a phenomenon called metabolic adaptation. As a result, the brain releases more of the hunger hormone ghrelin and dials down leptin, one of the hormones that signals fullness and energy sufficiency.

The net effect is simple: After weight loss, people are hungrier, feel less satisfied after eating and burn fewer calories than expected. The body interprets weight loss as a threat to survival and responds by slamming the brakes on metabolism through sophisticated energy-conserving mechanisms. Put plainly, when there’s less body weight to maintain, the body does less work – but it also becomes extra efficient, burning fewer calories than predicted and nudging weight back up.

Add to that an environment filled with ultraprocessed foods, oversized portions, high stress and limited time for movement, and it’s no surprise that so many people’s weight ends up yo-yoing despite their best efforts.

Putting GLP-1 drugs to the test

Clinical trials on GLP-1 medications also follow these well-established patterns. A pivotal 2021 clinical study of more than 1,900 adults, known as the STEP 1 trial, laid the groundwork for the use of these drugs as a treatment for weight loss.

But a follow-up 2021 study, known as STEP 4, showed that within 48 weeks of no longer taking semaglutide, participants regained approximately two-thirds of their prior weight loss, while those who remained on GLP-1 drug therapy continued to lose weight.

This is not because people lack discipline, but rather because their biology fights hard to return to its old set point.

Bottle of oral Wegovy tablets sits atop three boxes of injectable GLP-1 drugs.
Oral Wegovy pills were approved by the Food and Drug Administration in December 2025 and became available for purchase in the U.S. in January 2026.
UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Lower-cost, longer-term maintenance

Although obesity is now widely recognized as a chronic disease, clinical guidance has not kept pace with this new generation of highly effective medications.

For most patients, the most effective long‑term strategy after achieving a target weight is to continue GLP‑1 treatment. Clinicians aim for the lowest dose that still helps regulate appetite and stabilize weight.

Another option patients may pursue is to slowly taper off the drugs over about three to six months and to focus on reinforcing lifestyle choices that support goals for overall health and weight maintenance.

When your weight plateaus on a GLP‑1 drug

Plateaus in weight loss are normal, even on GLP‑1 drug therapy.

In clinical trials, weight loss with GLP-1 medications tends to follow a predictable curve: rapid early losses during drug initiation and dose increases, a gradual slowing and eventual plateau. A plateau, typically defined as little or no weight change for eight to 12 weeks, is not a sign of failure but rather the body adapting to a lower weight.

But before assuming that a GLP-1 medication has stopped working, clinicians will typically consider how the patient is using the drug, such as whether it’s being taken properly, with little to no missed doses, and whether it is being stored properly.

Clinicians will also evaluate a patient for medical conditions that might make weight loss more challenging, such as perimenopause or hypothyroidism, which is underactive thyroid.

They will also take into consideration whether the patient is on other drugs that might be obesogenic, meaning causing weight gain, or if they are using an FDA-approved GLP-1 drug versus a compounded medication, which can have variable quality and unknown efficacy.

Diverse group of students doing crescent lunge pose during a yoga class.
Despite the effectiveness of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss, there is still no replacement for healthy lifestyle patterns, including regular exercise.
MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Balancing weight loss with bone health

Helpful strategies to prevent weight regain related to diet include building meals around lean protein and noticing where calories might be creeping in, such as snacks, sugary drinks and alcohol.

With GLP-1 drugs, the goal for nutrition has shifted from calorie restriction to calorie quality. Aim for a healthy balance of vegetables, lean proteins and whole grains. And make sure your water intake is sufficient, especially since GLP-1 medications not only reduce hunger but can also reduce feeling thirsty.

When it comes to movement and exercise, people can add resistance training, increase their exercise intensity or both.

With any weight loss, no matter the method, people lose not only fat but also some muscle and bone. In clinical trials of GLP-1 medications, fat loss far outweighs losses of lean mass. However, any loss of lean mass matters because it can affect physical function, fracture risk and how well the body maintains weight and metabolic health over time.

Weight loss reduces the mechanical load on bones, which can lead to lower bone density and, in some people – such as those who are postmenopausal, as well as people over age 65 – an increased risk of fracture. Because bones adapt to the weight they carry, losing weight means less stress on the skeleton, and over time this can lead to small decreases in bone strength. This underscores the importance of resistance exercise for strength training, adequate protein intake during GLP-1 therapy and close monitoring for patients who are at higher risk of fracture.

Next-generation therapies, which include combinations of GLP-1 drugs and other peptides, are being studied for their potential to better preserve muscle and bone compared with GLP-1 drugs alone.

Patients on GLP-1 drugs who are experiencing a plateau may also want to talk with their doctor about considering a dose adjustment, medication switch or adding an additional drug.

If GLP-1 medication doses cannot be increased due to side effects, doctors will consider all options for other medications and for optimizing lifestyle, such as nutrition, exercise and sleep, to support the patient’s goals.

The Conversation

Amy J. Sheer has received consultant (honorarium) funding from PeerView. I am also in discussion with Eli Lilly about being a speaker, but I have not started in this role.

ref. You’ve reached your weight loss goal on GLP-1 medications – what now? – https://theconversation.com/youve-reached-your-weight-loss-goal-on-glp-1-medications-what-now-270413

Social studies as ‘neutral?’ That’s a myth, and pressures teachers to avoid contentious issues

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Lopuck, PhD Candidate, Faculty of Education, University of Manitoba

Social studies teachers face the distinct task of guiding students through pressing global issues and contentious dialogue.

(Allison Shelley/EDUimages), CC BY-NC

With a world literally and figuratively burning around them, high school social studies teachers are charged with engaging students in sensitive topics.

Social studies curricula today, for example, is concerned with themes like residential schools and racism. It’s also important to understand that beyond following explicit pre-set curricula, student-centred education calls for teachers to attend to students’ experiences in the social world.

This means making space for students’ observations or questions about current events like the ICE raids in Minnesota and inquiring into how unfolding events fit into larger social and historical patterns or themes. These conversations are a legitimate and everyday part of many social studies classrooms.

Social studies education demands sustained engagement with difficult knowledge and a heightened sense of obligation to both students and society, even as neoliberal and neoconservative pressures call for a stance of neutrality, which is neither possible nor desirable.

The weight of difficult knowledge

While teaching is widely recognized as stressful and teachers struggle with burnout, the relationship between that stress and specific subject curriculum is under-explored.

Social studies teachers are often required to dwell in the dark places of what Deborah Britzman, who researches the history of psychoanalysis and education, calls difficult knowledge. This pertains to traumatic histories that expose human vulnerability or violence — knowledge that is too much to bear or “make sense” of.

A student with a pensive look on their face.
In social studies classrooms, people are dwelling with difficult knowledge.
(Allison Shelley/EDUimages), CC BY-NC

While teacher stress, burnout and demoralization are well-studied, the weight I’m thinking about in my doctoral research and as a social studies teacher comes from social studies’ teachers’ sense of obligation to their students in this moment, to their discipline and to democracy — and the way carrying this weight exacts an emotional toll.

In this way, teaching social studies differs from other subjects. While all teachers are burdened by increasing demands, overburdened systems and rising public attacks from the “parental rights” movement, social studies teachers face the distinct additional task of guiding students through difficult knowledge, pressing global issues and contentious dialogue.

Pressures outside the classrooms

For example, immediately following the Hamas attacks in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military assault on Gaza, students in my rural Manitoba high school social studies class approached me with the expectation that I could help them understand what was happening.

In that moment, I became acutely aware not only of the obligation I felt to help my students, but also of the simultaneous contexts and pressures shaping how I might respond. I knew how deeply divisive this issue was in the public sphere, and consequently how any discussion that included Palestinians, Israeli state violence or historical context could be interpreted as taking sides beyond the classroom.




Read more:
Flawed notions of objectivity are hampering Canadian newsrooms when it comes to Gaza


It would have been simpler to just not engage with the topic. Yet, as a social studies teacher, I carried what I experienced as an emotionally weighty obligation to my students, the curriculum and to act in a way that reflected a broader moral responsibility. This led me to seek to understand, in my current doctoral research, how other high school teachers in Manitoba were experiencing their work.

My early findings from focus groups and qualitative interviews with approximately 20 Manitoba social studies teachers suggest these teachers experience a significant emotional toll linked to their sense of obligation to students and to the betterment of humanity.

Throughout this early research, Israel/Gaza has frequently been named as a flashpoint in classrooms, with many teachers expressing hesitation about engaging with the topic due to fears of backlash from parents, administrators or the broader community. In this sense, the weight of teaching difficult knowledge is not only personal, but collective and structural.

A ‘neutral space’ isn’t possible

A factor shaping pressures teachers perceive in how they guide and support difficult discussions is a dominant misinformed belief that the classroom is, or should be, a “neutral space” — an expectation that is neither possible nor desirable.




Read more:
How to curb anti-Black racism in Canadian schools


Teaching is inherently political insofar as it explicitly or implicitly validates or excludes certain perspectives and voices. The social studies classroom is never a neutral space.

What is taught — what some researchers call the explicit curriculum — is the result of political decision-making by curriculum developers appointed by politicians. What is left out (what some have called “null” curriculum) is equally political.

Myth of neutrality

Even the expectation of neutrality is political: choosing not to take a stance is itself a decision with ethical and political consequences. Teachers’ classroom choices, their responses to students, the framing of discussions, the arrangement of the classroom and even the ways they present themselves are all laden with values.




Read more:
Education for reconciliation requires us to ‘know where we are’


Expecting teachers to remain neutral ignores this reality and creates a false tension between “being impartial” and fulfilling professional and ethical obligations. Allowing a student’s derogatory or historically false comment to pass unchallenged, for example, is a political choice.

The myth of neutrality pressures teachers to self-censor and avoid contentious issues, contributing to emotional and professional strain.

Engagement with contentious issues required

Contemporary curricula increasingly emphasize global competencies, with critical thinking as a central goal.

Because the classroom is inherently political, teachers must make choices about how to engage. One approach, described by education scholar Thomas E. Kelly as “committed impartiality,” encourages teachers to share their own beliefs while welcoming all opinions and fostering dialogue.

This framework helps teachers respond thoughtfully when students express ideas carelessly or provocatively, guiding classroom discussion in ways that promote critical thinking.




Read more:
4 ways to empower students to spark social change


Whichever approach is taken, classroom interactions take place within the “lived curriculum,” — how students experience what happens in a class.

Teachers seen in a circle in discussion.
Expecting teachers to remain neutral creates a false tension between ‘being impartial’ and fulfiling obligations.
(Allison Shelley/EDUimages), CC BY-NC

Sharing weight, creating hope

If teachers feel unable to address the deaths of more than 70,000 people in Gaza or to critically look at the American government’s excessive use of force that has resulted in the deaths of civilians or to recognize the impact of human-caused climate change, what does this say about our collective ability to confront urgent crises and foster informed, empathetic democratic citizens?

By creating space for social studies teachers to share how they experience their work, feelings can be acknowledged and named. This can be part of offering teachers tools to practise self-inquiry to help inform responsible and sustainable classroom practise.

Like teachers’ work with students, these conversations may be messy, emotional and deeply human, and they may even make us want to retreat into isolation. But we are better when we can recognize and name the weight, lean into the collective and remain in the work together.

As I begin to analyze my research with social studies teachers, I am struck by a sense of hope in the ways they continue to engage in difficult conversations. What stands out is not denial of the darkness, but a persistent commitment to hope through teaching that encourages students to act, respond and participate in shaping a more just world.

The Conversation

Kevin Lopuck is affiliated with the Social Studies Educators Network of Canada.

ref. Social studies as ‘neutral?’ That’s a myth, and pressures teachers to avoid contentious issues – https://theconversation.com/social-studies-as-neutral-thats-a-myth-and-pressures-teachers-to-avoid-contentious-issues-269175

Has Little Caesars Arena boosted economic activity in Detroit? We looked at hotel and short-term rental industry data to find out

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Gidon Jakar, Assistant professor of sport management, University of Florida

Owners claimed the local economy would be the real winner when the Detroit Red Wings and Pistons play. Scott Legato/WireImage via Getty Images

Detroit’s population reportedly grew in 2023 for the first time in 60 years, a trend that has continued in recent years. Over the past decade, the city center has experienced substantial private and public investments and development.

I personally witnessed some of the changes in Detroit while I was studying for my Ph.D. at the University of Michigan’s sport management program. I am now an assistant professor at the University of Florida, where I research how sport affects local economies.

One of the changes I witnessed was the construction of Little Caesars Arena and its opening in 2017. The venue cost an estimated US$863 million, including $324 million in public money – a substantial amount, especially considering it was allocated so close to the city’s bankruptcy filing in 2013. The financing deal also included property development agreements, some of which have yet to materialize.

The arena’s primary users and operators are the NBA’s Detroit Pistons and the NHL’s Detroit Red Wings. The Red Wings are owned by the Ilitch family, which founded Little Caesars pizza in Detroit in 1959.

My colleagues Nasim Binesh, Kyriaki Kaplanidou and I recently published research examining how much impact the arena had on the hospitality industry in Detroit.

Two professional basketball players battle for the ball. One is wearing a white Detroit Pistons jersey.
Where do all of these Pistons fans sleep after the game?
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Sport venues and the promise of financial gains

A persistent debate on the benefits of sport venues to local economies is taking place at the same time public officials continue to commit substantial resources toward them.

In just the past five years, in cities such as Buffalo, Las Vegas and Nashville, local and state officials have partnered with sports teams to build new stadiums, frequently offering the franchises incentives, including tax write-offs, free rent and construction cost-sharing.

Far less often, these attempts to build stadiums fail. That happened recently in Kansas City – where voters rejected a new stadium – and Philadelphia, where the team reversed its decision to build the arena near the city’s Chinatown.

As I note in a study co-authored with Mark Rosentraub, a professor at the University of Michigan, cities are competing with each other for new residents and tax revenue from development and economic activity. Some officials clearly perceive maintaining or obtaining “major league” status as an advantage so important that they are willing to spend tax dollars to assist wealthy franchises.

This may explain why it happens, but it does not necessarily justify it.

Little Caesars Arena and the lodging industry

In our study, we examined the lodging industry, including hotels and short-term rentals, which experienced substantial growth coinciding with Detroit’s economic growth.

Short-term rental data was purchased from AirDNA, and hotel data was obtained from STR. Both of these sites compile and sell data, primarily to investors and owners of short-term rentals and hotels.

Our quantitative analysis examined millions of records from 2015 to 2022. Rentals within the city’s boundaries increased from 462 units in 2015 to 2,582 in 2022. A healthy cluster near the city’s downtown grew substantially over this period.

In 2015, 24,592 nights were booked in short-term rentals. By 2022, that number had increased to 161,952. Over the same period, demand for hotel rooms decreased by 19%.

However, hotel rates increased over the same period from an average of $128.20 in 2015 to $197.05 in 2023, meaning that despite the decreased demand, annual hotel revenues increased from $229.6 million in 2015 to $306.1 million in 2023.

Hotels and short-term rentals in Detroit are subject to the state’s 6% sales tax. Hotels also must pay citywide lodging taxes ranging from 3% to 6%, depending on the number of rooms. Lodging taxes are not currently collected for short-term rentals.

The arena opened, then what?

So, how much did the new arena affect the supply and demand for lodging?

To answer that question, we compared Detroit’s numbers with short-term rental data from Grand Rapids, the second-largest city in the state.

The answer is not that much.

Detroit’s short-term rental growth was not dissimilar to that in Grand Rapids – even though no major league franchises play there and no major stadium had been built there. Demand in Grand Rapids grew 1,210% versus 1,284% in Detroit. The number of units available grew by 702% in Grand Rapids, compared to 674% in Detroit.

Regarding the impact of Little Caesars Arena, our study suggests sport events there do not appear to have a positive impact on the lodging industry.

Musical acts like Lil Wayne bring in more dollars for property owners.
Scott Legato/Getty Images

While sporting events had little impact, the arena also hosts concerts with big-name acts, including Harry Styles, Jay-Z and The Weeknd. Our research shows these concerts significantly increased occupancy rates in short-term rentals – although the effect did not translate to hotels.

But the rentals needed to be very convenient to the venue. Increases on concert nights were more than three times higher in short-term rental units located within a mile of the arena compared to the city as a whole.

The Conversation

Gidon Jakar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Has Little Caesars Arena boosted economic activity in Detroit? We looked at hotel and short-term rental industry data to find out – https://theconversation.com/has-little-caesars-arena-boosted-economic-activity-in-detroit-we-looked-at-hotel-and-short-term-rental-industry-data-to-find-out-272421

Alerta global por la presencia de la toxina cereulida en leche de fórmula infantil

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Raúl Rivas González, Catedrático de Microbiología. Miembro de la Sociedad Española de Microbiología., Universidad de Salamanca

Desde hace algunas semanas, varias de las compañías lácteas más grandes del mundo –incluidas, entre otras, Nestlé, Danone, Granarolo y Lactalis– están retirando y bloqueando lotes de fórmula infantil, por el temor a que estén contaminados con una toxina llamada cereulida.

Esta situación ha provocado retiradas masivas de productos y ha suscitado gran preocupación entre los padres. La alerta es global y afecta a más de 60 países en todo el mundo.

Se estima que al menos 29 países europeos están involucrados. España no es una excepción: la Agencia Española de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutrición (AESAN) ha emitido varias notificaciones de retirada preventiva de diversos lotes de leche de fórmula infantil por la posible presencia de cereulida.

Náuses, vómitos y diarreas

La cereulida es una toxina termoestable producida por las bacterias Bacillus cereus y Bacillus weihenstephanensis. Resistente al ácido y a las enzimas digestivas, provoca náuseas y vómitos intensos y cíclicos repentinos entre 30 minutos y seis horas después de su ingestión. También puede causar dolor abdominal y, a veces, diarrea. Incluso ocasionalmente da lugar a intoxicaciones graves relacionadas con insuficiencias hepáticas agudas.

En bebés pequeños, puede alterar el equilibrio sódico del cuerpo y provocar complicaciones como la deshidratación. Los posibles efectos negativos para la salud se consideran de bajos a moderados y dependen de la edad del bebé. Los neonatos y los bebés menores de seis meses tienen mayor riesgo de padecer enfermedades graves.

De todas formas, la acumulación de cereulida en productos alimenticios es un riesgo significativo porque no se destruye fácilmente mediante métodos de procesamiento o digestión de los alimentos. En algunos casos, incluso puede llegar a ser mortal.

El principal sospechoso: el aceite de ácido araquidonico

El motivo de la posible contaminación con cereulida ha sido rastreado hasta un ingrediente específico: el aceite de ácido araquidónico o ARA, suministrado a las compañías por un proveedor internacional. El ARA es un ácido graso omega-6 utilizado en la industria alimentaria. Los fabricantes de fórmulas infantiles lo emplean en algunos productos, de conformidad con el Reglamento (UE) 2016/127.

Dada la situación, la Comisión Europea solicitó a la Autoridad Europea de Seguridad Alimentaria (AESA) que emitiera asesoramiento científico urgente para respaldar las decisiones sobre la retirada de productos. Tras una evaluación rápida de los riesgos, la AESA ha establecido un nuevo nivel máximo de ingesta diaria segura para la cereulida.

El “síndrome del arroz frito”

Bacillus cereus es el principal agente causante del “síndrome del arroz frito” que se produce cuando el arroz hervido se deja a temperatura ambiente durante unas horas. Se estima que Bacillus cereus es responsable del 1,4 % al 12 % de todos los brotes de intoxicación alimentaria en el mundo. La bacteria produce enfermedades gastrointestinales de dos tipos: eméticas y diarreicas. El tipo emético, que a menudo es asociado con la ingesta de pasta y de arroz contaminado, surge por la presencia de la cereulida en los alimentos. En 2008, la muerte súbita de un adulto joven (20 años) fue asociada a una intoxicación alimentaria por_Bacillus cereus_.

Todo comenzó el 1 de octubre, cuando el joven enfermó tras ingerir restos de espaguetis con salsa de tomate, preparados cinco días antes y dejados en la cocina a temperatura ambiente. Después de asistir a clase, los calentó en el microondas. Inmediatamente después de comer, salió de casa para realizar actividades deportivas, pero regresó 30 minutos después y sufrió dolor de cabeza, dolor abdominal, náuseas y diarrea acuosa. Después de medianoche, se quedó dormido. A la mañana siguiente, a las 11:00, sus padres estaban preocupados porque no se había levantado. Cuando fueron a su habitación, lo encontraron muerto. Los análisis posteriores aislaron cepas eméticas de Bacillus cereus y se encontraron altos niveles de cereulida en los espaguetis.

Cocinar alimentos contaminados a las temperaturas recomendadas elimina las células vegetativas de Bacillus cereus. Sin embargo, las esporas de esta bacteria, que son resistentes al calor, pueden sobrevivir al proceso de cocción y volver a germinar si los alimentos se enfrían lentamente.

Si los alimentos se mantienen durante varias horas a temperaturas inadecuadas antes de servirlos –por encima de 5 °C en el caso de alimentos fríos o por debajo de 57 °C en alimentos calientes– pueden desarrollarse concentraciones peligrosas de bacterias o de toxinas antes del consumo.

El correcto almacenamiento de los alimentos es fundamental para evitar las intoxicaciones alimentarias en el hogar.

The Conversation

Raúl Rivas González no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Alerta global por la presencia de la toxina cereulida en leche de fórmula infantil – https://theconversation.com/alerta-global-por-la-presencia-de-la-toxina-cereulida-en-leche-de-formula-infantil-275235

Comment mesurer la précarité énergétique ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Dorothée Charlier, Maîtresse de conférences en économie de l’énergie et de l’environnement, IREGE, IAE Savoie Mont Blanc

La précarité énergétique est un phénomène bien réel, mais difficile à cerner précisément. Selon la manière dont elle est mesurée, certaines personnes peuvent ne pas être reconnues comme concernées et passer à côté des dispositifs d’aide, qu’il s’agisse de se chauffer correctement en hiver ou de se protéger de la chaleur en été.


Alors que la hausse durable des prix de l’énergie et le changement climatique accentuent les situations d’inconfort thermique, la précarité énergétique s’impose comme un enjeu social majeur en France et en Europe. Les chiffres abondent – ménages consacrant une part élevée de leurs revenus à l’énergie, ménages ayant eu froid chez eux, situations d’impayés ou de restrictions de chauffage – et nourrissent une inquiétude légitime.

Pourtant, cette visibilité croissante masque une réalité plus complexe : selon l’indicateur mobilisé, on ne désigne pas toujours les mêmes ménages comme « précaires », et une partie importante de la population demeure invisible aux yeux des politiques publiques. Alors comment bien mesurer la précarité énergétique ?

Définir la précarité énergétique : un consensus fragile

En France, la précarité énergétique fait l’objet d’une définition juridique depuis l’article 11 de la loi Grenelle II de 2010, qui la caractérise comme la difficulté pour un ménage de satisfaire ses besoins énergétiques essentiels en raison d’une combinaison de facteurs, notamment des revenus insuffisants, des logements peu performants sur le plan énergétique et des prix élevés de l’énergie.

Cette définition, reprise et largement mobilisée dans les travaux statistiques et les politiques publiques, est proche de celle retenue au niveau européen, qui insiste également sur l’incapacité des ménages à accéder à des services énergétiques essentiels à un coût abordable. Elle a le mérite de souligner le caractère fondamentalement multidimensionnel du phénomène.

Pourtant, dans la pratique, cette richesse conceptuelle est souvent réduite à un ou deux indicateurs simples, principalement fondés sur les dépenses énergétiques.

En France, un ménage est fréquemment considéré comme précaire lorsqu’il consacre plus de 8 ou 10 % de ses revenus à l’énergie et appartient aux ménages à bas revenus. Ces indicateurs présentent des avantages évidents, simplicité de calcul, comparabilité dans le temps et lisibilité pour le grand public. Mais leurs limites sont désormais bien établies. Ils mesurent les dépenses réalisées plutôt que les besoins réels, et ignorent les stratégies de restriction adoptées par de nombreux ménages en difficulté, dont les factures peuvent sembler modérées bien qu’ils subissent un inconfort élevé.

Par exemple, en France, près de 35 % des personnes déclarent avoir souffert du froid dans leur logement au cours de l’hiver 2024-2025, selon le dernier tableau de bord de l’Observatoire national de la précarité énergétique (ONPE).

QU’EST CE QUE L’ONPE ?

  • Créé en 2011 à la suite de la loi Grenelle II, l’Observatoire national de la précarité énergétique (ONPE) est une instance partenariale de référence chargée de produire une connaissance partagée, de suivre l’évolution de la précarité énergétique et d’éclairer les politiques publiques dans les domaines du logement et de la mobilité.

Dans la même édition, une proportion significative de ménages déclare avoir restreint volontairement le chauffage pour éviter des factures élevées, illustrant comment les stratégies d’adaptation peuvent rendre invisibles aux yeux des statistiques officielles des situations pourtant difficiles.

À l’inverse, certains ménages apparaissent comme précaires au regard de leurs dépenses, alors même qu’ils vivent dans des logements confortables mais énergivores, sans subir de privations. Il s’agit notamment de ménages aux revenus relativement élevés, vivant dans des logements gourmands en énergie pour lesquels une facture importante reste compatible avec le niveau de vie.

Plus généralement, ces situations rappellent que les indicateurs fondés sur des seuils, qu’il s’agisse de dépenses ou de température intérieure, sont imparfaits : une même température peut être vécue comme acceptable par certains, par choix ou par habitude, et comme inconfortable par d’autres, selon les préférences, l’âge ou l’état de santé.

Pour dépasser les limites des indicateurs fondés sur les dépenses, les indicateurs dits « subjectifs » ont progressivement pris de l’importance. Ils reposent sur le ressenti des ménages et sur des situations concrètes telles que le fait d’avoir eu froid chez soi, d’être en situation d’impayés ou de vivre dans un logement humide ou dégradé.

Leur principal avantage est de rendre visibles des formes de privation réelle, indépendamment du niveau de dépenses observé, et de capter des dimensions invisibles dans les données comptables, comme l’inconfort, le stress ou les effets sur la santé. Toutefois, ces indicateurs présentent eux aussi des limites, car les réponses dépendent fortement des normes sociales, des attentes individuelles et de la capacité à exprimer une difficulté, ce qui peut conduire à des sous ou sur déclarations selon les franges de la population.

Consciente de ces enjeux, la France a donc fait le choix de ne pas s’appuyer sur un indicateur unique, mais sur un panier d’indicateurs, à l’image du tableau de bord de l’ONPE. Celui-ci combine des indicateurs de dépenses, de restrictions, de ressenti et d’impayés, reconnaissant ainsi le caractère multidimensionnel de la précarité énergétique. Cette approche constitue un progrès important, mais elle soulève une difficulté persistante : comment interpréter simultanément ces signaux et les traduire en décisions opérationnelles lorsque les ménages ne sont concernés que par certaines dimensions et pas par d’autres ?

Le piège du binaire : une vision trop rigide d’un phénomène continu

Être précaire ou ne pas l’être ? La plupart des indicateurs actuels reposent sur une logique binaire : un ménage est classé soit comme précaire, soit comme non précaire, en fonction du dépassement d’un seuil. Cette approche est rassurante, car elle permet de compter, de comparer, de cibler. Mais elle repose sur une hypothèse implicite discutable : celle d’une frontière nette entre les ménages « en difficulté » et les autres.

Or, la réalité est bien différente. La précarité énergétique est un processus, non un état figé. Elle peut être transitoire, s’aggraver progressivement par exemple avec la hausse des prix de l’énergie, ou au contraire être contenue par des stratégies d’adaptation. De nombreux ménages se situent dans une zone intermédiaire : ils ne remplissent pas les critères statistiques de la précarité, mais ils vivent sous une contrainte permanente, exposés au moindre choc.

C’est dans ce contexte qu’émerge la notion de vulnérabilité énergétique. Elle ne désigne pas une situation actuelle de privation, mais un risque de basculer dans la précarité à la suite d’un événement : hausse des prix, perte de revenus, problème de santé, épisode climatique extrême. Cette approche permet de dépasser la logique du « tout ou rien » et de s’intéresser aux trajectoires des ménages. Elle met en lumière une population souvent invisible dans les statistiques classiques, mais pourtant essentielle à considérer si l’on veut prévenir plutôt que réparer.

L’importance des choix de mesure apparaît nettement lorsque l’on considère les ménages les plus modestes : en 2022, parmi les 10 % les plus pauvres de la population, près de 69 % des ménages seraient en situation de précarité énergétique en l’absence à la fois du bouclier tarifaire et du chèque énergie. Cette proportion tombe à 62 % avec le seul bouclier tarifaire, puis à environ 43 % lorsque le bouclier et les chèques énergie sont pris en compte, illustrant combien les dispositifs publics et les conventions de mesure modifient l’ampleur statistique du phénomène.

Mesurer autrement : apports des approches multidimensionnelles

Une première manière de renouveler la mesure de la précarité énergétique consiste donc à recourir à des indicateurs « dits » composites. L’idée est de ne plus se limiter à un seul critère, mais de regrouper plusieurs dimensions du problème dans un indicateur unique. Celui-ci peut par exemple prendre en compte à la fois le niveau de revenu des ménages, la qualité énergétique de leur logement, leurs difficultés à payer les factures, les restrictions de chauffage ou encore l’inconfort thermique ressenti.

Cette approche se distingue des méthodes qui juxtaposent plusieurs indicateurs séparés, comme celles utilisées par l’ONPE. Ici, les différentes dimensions de la précarité énergétique sont combinées dans un même outil, ce qui permet d’avoir une vision plus globale des situations.

Inspirée des travaux sur la pauvreté multidimensionnelle, cette méthode aide à mieux comparer les ménages entre eux et à identifier plus finement ceux qui sont les plus exposés.

L’INDICE DE PAUVRETÉ MULTIDIMENSIONNELLE

  • Mesurer la pauvreté avec un seul indice, par exemple le revenu, présente un risque : celui de n’avoir qu’une image partielle du phénomène. Pour ne pas invisibiliser certaines populations qui subissent ce fléau, l’indice de pauvreté multidimensionnelle, créé à l’Université d’Oxford en 2010 et utilisé dès cette année-là par le Programme des Nations unies pour le développement (PNUD), compile dix indices : la mortalité infantile, la nutrition, les années de scolarité, la sortie de scolarité, l’électricité, l’eau potable, les sanitaires, le sol de l’habitat, le combustible utilisé pour cuisiner, les biens mobiliers.

Par exemple, un ménage aux revenus modestes vivant dans un logement mal isolé, qui limite fortement son chauffage pour contenir ses factures et déclare un inconfort thermique, peut ne pas dépasser individuellement les seuils de dépenses ou de température retenus par les indicateurs classiques, mais apparaître clairement comme précaire lorsqu’on combine ces différentes dimensions au sein d’un indicateur composite.

Mais ces indicateurs ne sont pas sans limites. Ils reposent sur des choix normatifs, parfois peu visibles, notamment sur l’importance accordée à chaque dimension. Par exemple, le poids accordé aux dépenses énergétiques par rapport à l’inconfort thermique ou à la qualité du logement peut conduire à classer différemment deux ménages aux situations pourtant proches, selon que l’on privilégie une contrainte budgétaire, une privation ressentie ou une vulnérabilité structurelle. Ces choix donc restent en partie arbitraires et peuvent limiter l’appropriation de ces indicateurs par les acteurs publics et la compréhension du phénomène par le grand public.

Une autre manière d’aborder la précarité énergétique, de plus en plus utilisée en sciences sociales, consiste à recourir à des méthodes de classification statistique. Leur principe est simple : au lieu de décider à l’avance à partir de quel seuil un ménage est considéré comme « précaire », ces méthodes commencent par regrouper les ménages qui se ressemblent, en tenant compte simultanément de plusieurs dimensions de leur situation.

Concrètement, les ménages sont classés en fonction de caractéristiques observées comme le type de logement, le niveau des dépenses d’énergie, les difficultés de paiement, les restrictions de chauffage ou encore l’inconfort thermique. Les méthodes de classification rassemblent ainsi des personnes aux profils proches, sans imposer au préalable de seuils arbitraires sur chacun de ces indicateurs.

Ce n’est qu’ensuite que l’on interprète les groupes obtenus. On observe alors qu’ils correspondent assez clairement à des situations distinctes : des ménages sans difficulté particulière, des ménages vulnérables, et des ménages en situation de précarité énergétique avérée. Ces groupes présentent non seulement des points communs sur les critères utilisés pour les classer, mais aussi sur d’autres caractéristiques sociales ou économiques, comme la composition familiale ou le type de territoire.

Ces méthodes permettent ainsi de mieux comprendre les différentes formes de précarité énergétique, et de dépasser une approche trop rigide fondée uniquement sur des seuils souvent arbitraires.

Pourquoi mesurer la précarité énergétique restera toujours difficile

Même avec des outils plus sophistiqués, mesurer la précarité énergétique restera un exercice délicat. Les besoins énergétiques varient selon le climat, la composition du ménage, l’état de santé, l’âge, ou encore les normes culturelles. Ce qui constitue un inconfort pour certains peut être perçu comme acceptable pour d’autres.

Les ménages en difficulté effectuent souvent des arbitrages complexes entre différentes dépenses essentielles : se chauffer, se nourrir, se déplacer, se soigner. Ces arbitrages sont difficiles à observer dans les données et échappent en grande partie aux indicateurs traditionnels.

Plutôt que de chercher une mesure unique et définitive, l’enjeu est donc de construire des outils capables d’éclairer la diversité des situations et des trajectoires. Dans un contexte de transition énergétique et de dérèglement climatique, mieux mesurer la précarité énergétique devient moins une question de précision statistique qu’une nécessité pour anticiper, prévenir et adapter les politiques publiques.

The Conversation

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. Comment mesurer la précarité énergétique ? – https://theconversation.com/comment-mesurer-la-precarite-energetique-273860

Migration africaine : pourquoi se focaliser sur l’Europe fait rater l’essentiel

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Nadine Biehler, Researcher, German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Les images de canots pneumatiques surchargés de réfugiés se dirigeant vers l’Europe et les récits de mauvais traitements et d’exploitation des migrants sur des routes migratoires dangereuses ont fini par dominer la perception de la migration africaine dans les débats publics et politiques européens.

Ces images laissent penser que tout un continent est en mouvement vers le nord, principalement à cause des conflits. Ces récits sont profondément trompeurs. Néanmoins, ils influencent l’opinion publique et les décisions politiques.

Les craintes d’une migration massive de l’Afrique vers l’Europe sont exagérées. Les données montrent que la migration en provenance d’Afrique a augmenté, mais à un rythme plus lent que celui de croissance de la migration dans le monde entier, et qu’elle se déroule en grande partie sur le continent.

Comme la migration en provenance d’Afrique est principalement perçue comme une crise imminente pour l’Europe, les réponses politiques ont tendance à se concentrer sur le contrôle des frontières et la dissuasion, plutôt que sur la coopération, le potentiel de développement de la migration ou la protection.

Nous sommes des chercheurs travaillant sur la migration, les déplacements forcés et l’analyse de données. Nous avons mis en commun notre expertise dans un nouveau document de travail afin d’analyser les dernières données du Département des affaires économiques et sociales des Nations unies (DAES) sur les migrations mondiales. Nous avons également examiné les données actuelles sur les déplacements forcés.

Nous avons constaté que :

  • la plupart des migrations africaines ont lieu à l’intérieur de l’Afrique

  • la majorité des migrants africains qui traversent les frontières ne fuient pas la violence

  • la grande majorité des personnes contraintes de fuir ne quittent jamais leur propre pays ou région, et encore moins le continent.

Il est essentiel de comprendre ces schémas de mobilité pour élaborer des politiques migratoires européennes plus réalistes et plus efficaces.

Les données

Les estimations du Département des affaires économiques et sociales de l’ONU (DAES) sur les migrations sur lesquelles s’appuie notre article constituent la source de données mondiale la plus complète disponible sur les migrations. Elles mesurent le nombre de migrants vivant dans un pays à un moment donné (données sur les stocks). Cependant, elles ne précisent pas quand ils ont déménagé (données sur les flux) ni pourquoi. De plus, les chiffres du DAES excluent les mouvements à l’intérieur des pays.

Notre article complète ces estimations avec des données fournies par l’Agence des Nations Unies pour les réfugiés et le Centre de surveillance des déplacements internes sur les déplacements forcés. Cela inclut les déplacements internes, particulièrement répandus en Afrique.

Cette étude a révélé que la plupart des migrations africaines ont lieu à l’intérieur de l’Afrique.

À l’échelle mondiale, on comptait environ 304 millions de migrants internationaux en 2024. Les Africains représentaient environ 15 % de ce total.

En d’autres termes, la majorité des migrants dans le monde ne sont pas originaires d’Afrique.

Ce qui est encore plus frappant, c’est la destination des migrants africains.

En 2024, environ 25 millions d’Africains vivaient dans un pays africain autre que celui où ils étaient nés ou dont ils avaient la nationalité. Ce chiffre dépassait d’environ 21 % le nombre d’Africains vivant hors du continent (20,7 millions).

Cela signifie que la migration africaine est principalement intracontinentale, une tendance de longue date qui s’est encore accentuée au fil du temps.

Plusieurs facteurs permettent d’expliquer cette situation.

Les voyages en Afrique sont souvent moins chers et plus sûrs que les voyages vers d’autres continents. Les accords régionaux de libre circulation, tels que ceux conclus en Afrique de l’Ouest et de l’Est, facilitent la mobilité transfrontalière. Dans le même temps, les voies légales vers l’Europe, l’Amérique du Nord ou l’Asie restent limitées et coûteuses pour la plupart des Africains, avec des taux de rejet de visas élevés et peu de possibilités de migration régulière.

La migration africaine est également liée au genre. Les hommes sont plus susceptibles de migrer que les femmes, en particulier lorsqu’ils quittent le continent. Cet écart est moins important pour les migrations au sein de l’Afrique. Cela suggère que des voies légales plus accessibles et des voyages moins dangereux contribuent à surmonter les obstacles à la migration pour les femmes.

Déplacements forcés

Les guerres et les conflits obligent de plus en plus de personnes à quitter leur foyer dans le monde entier, et l’Afrique ne fait pas exception.

À la fin de 2024, plus de 120 millions de personnes dans le monde avaient été déplacées de force par la guerre et la violence. Cependant, la majorité d’entre elles (73,5 millions, soit 60 % des personnes déplacées de force dans le monde) n’ont jamais quitté leur propre pays pour demander l’asile ailleurs. Elles sont restées déplacées à l’intérieur de leur pays d’origine.

Cette réalité est particulièrement marquée en Afrique qui concentre près de la moitié des déplacés dans le monde.

Le Soudan et la République démocratique du Congo représentent près de 80 % des déplacements internes en Afrique.

Même lorsque les Africains franchissent les frontières pour chercher protection, ils restent généralement près de chez eux.

En 2024, près de 87 % des 12,2 millions de réfugiés et de demandeurs d’asile africains dans le monde vivaient sur le continent africain. Seule une petite minorité a cherché refuge en dehors de l’Afrique.

Cela remet en question l’idée répandue selon laquelle les déplacements forcés en Afrique se traduisent automatiquement par une migration massive vers l’Europe.

En réalité, ce sont les pays voisins, souvent eux-mêmes touchés par la pauvreté ou l’instabilité, et parfois à la fois pays d’origine et de destination des personnes déplacées de force, qui assument la plus grande partie de la responsabilité d’accueillir les populations déplacées.

Même en tenant compte des scénarios de déplacement futurs liés à la crise climatique, la Banque mondiale estime que les personnes touchées resteront dans leur région.

Néanmoins, tant au niveau mondial qu’en Afrique, la migration volontaire domine : sur les 45,8 millions de migrants africains dans le monde, les réfugiés et les demandeurs d’asile représentent 12,2 millions.

Cela vaut également pour la migration africaine vers les pays de l’Union européenne, où les permis de séjour pour raisons professionnelles, éducatives ou familiales (2024 : environ 670 000) dépassent largement les premières demandes d’asile (2024 : environ 240 000).

Pourquoi ces conclusions sont importantes

Tout d’abord, les données montrent clairement que la migration africaine ne concerne pas principalement l’Europe. Elle concerne avant tout l’Afrique elle-même. Pour les décideurs politiques européens et ceux d’autres pays du Nord, nos conclusions suggèrent la nécessité de repenser les priorités. Soutenir les pays d’accueil des réfugiés en Afrique, élargir les voies de migration légales et investir dans des données fiables sur la migration peuvent garantir une gestion plus efficace de la migration. Se concentrer uniquement sur la dissuasion n’est pas approprié.

Deuxièmement, nos conclusions soulignent l’importance des pays et des régions africains en tant que destinations migratoires et États d’accueil des réfugiés. Des pays tels que l’Ouganda, la Côte d’Ivoire, l’Afrique du Sud ou le Nigeria accueillent des millions de migrants et de réfugiés, souvent avec des ressources bien moindres que les États plus riches en matière d’intégration et de protection.

Pour les gouvernements africains, cela signifie qu’il faut continuer à renforcer les cadres régionaux et continentaux de mobilité. Ceux-ci permettraient aux personnes de se déplacer en toute sécurité et légalement pour des raisons professionnelles, éducatives ou familiales. La migration intra-régionale est déjà l’épine dorsale de la mobilité africaine. Elle devrait le rester.

Troisièmement, l’analyse démontre que les données du DAES sont indispensables mais incomplètes. Elles excluent la migration interne, la migration sans papiers et de nombreuses formes de mobilité temporaire ou circulaire courantes en Afrique. Les réductions budgétaires imposées aux institutions internationales de collecte de données risquent d’affaiblir encore davantage l’élaboration de politiques fondées sur des données probantes.

Il est essentiel de comprendre comment les personnes se déplacent réellement – et pourquoi – pour concevoir des politiques migratoires équitables et réalistes.

The Conversation

Nadine Biehler travaille à la SWP pour le projet de recherche « Politique stratégique en matière de réfugiés et de migration », financé par le ministère fédéral allemand de la Coopération économique et du Développement (BMZ).

Emma Landmesser travaille à la SWP pour le projet de recherche « Politique stratégique en matière de réfugiés et de migration », financé par le ministère fédéral allemand de la Coopération économique et du Développement (BMZ).

Rebecca Majewski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Migration africaine : pourquoi se focaliser sur l’Europe fait rater l’essentiel – https://theconversation.com/migration-africaine-pourquoi-se-focaliser-sur-leurope-fait-rater-lessentiel-274919

Reunión entre Petro y Trump: el día que el interés de los Estados se impuso a las rencillas y las ideologías

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Fernando Cvitanic, Docente de Relaciones Internacionales, Universidad de La Sabana

miss.cabul/shutterstock

El martes 4 de febrero, Gustavo Petro y Donald Trump dejaron una imagen hasta hace poco impensable. Esta se produjo cuando los mandatarios de Colombia y Estados Unidos se saludaron y recorrieron juntos el Paseo de la fama de los presidentes en la Casa Blanca.

Fue el preámbulo de una de la reuniones más esperadas de la política internacional reciente. Los hechos tuvieron lugar después de que Estados Unidos y Colombia hayan vivido las relaciones más tensas de los últimos tiempos. El balance del encuentro marca una nueva etapa, que retoma la colaboración de manera amistosa.

Un callejón diplomático con salida

El contexto no era favorable para Petro y este no tenía muchas opciones.

Poco después de la nueva toma de posesión de Trump, se produjo la primera crisis. El regreso de unos aviones con inmigrantes deportados provenientes de los Estados Unidos desencadenó una ola de amenazas por parte de Washington. Gracias a los mecanismos diplomáticos de Colombia, este primer incidente pudo ser paleado.

La gota que derramó la copa surgió con la captura de Nicolás Maduro y las subsiguientes críticas del presidente colombiano. A modo de respuesta, se registraron nuevas amenazas que abrían la posibilidad de que Estados Unidos hiciera lo mismo con Colombia.

Una llamada telefónica solicitada por Gustavo Petro sirvió para calmar a Estados Unidos y aclarar un panorama, que ahora se torna amistoso y con serios compromisos.

Los temas principales: narcotráfico, Venezuela y Ecuador

“Llegamos a acuerdos. Nos llevamos muy bien. Él y yo no éramos los mejores amigos, pero no me ofendió porque no nos conocíamos. Estamos trabajando en eso y en otras cosas, incluyendo sanciones. Creo que él fue fantástico, nos llevamos muy bien”, dijo en primer lugar Donald Trump desde su despacho.

Primaron las relaciones binacionales. Los líderes se retiraron la camiseta de la idolología para dejar en claro que los intereses de los Estados van primero.

En una reunión que alcanzó las dos horas y rodeado por otros asistentes, como el vicepresidente, J.D. Vance, el secretario de estado, Marco Rubio y el senador Bernie Moreno, la delegación colombiana se dio a la tarea, de la mano del ministro de defensa, Pedro Sánchez, de presentar los resultados en materia de lucha contra las drogas.

A la exposición de los logros en este rubro se sumó la extradición y la llegada a Texas de uno de los narcotraficantes más poderosos del Valle del Cauca, Pipe Tuluá. Este arribó a los Estados Unidos justamente el día de la reunión para cumplir una pena de varios años de cárcel por ingresar drogas a los Estados Unidos.

Sobre el tema del narcotráfico, el presidente Gustavo Petro indicó en la rueda de prensa posterior que la lucha es “contra los capos de los capos”, no contra los campesinos y destacó que la erradicación de los cultivos de coca continuará manualmente, sin recurrir al glifosato. Una decisión que contrasta con la tomada a finales del pasado año, cuando el Gobierno volvió a recurrir a este polémico herbicida tras estar suspendido su uso durante los diez años anteriores.

El segundo punto involucró a Venezuela. “Cómo reactivar a Venezuela en su vecindad; cuál es el papel de los Estados Unidos ahí y cómo dejar fluir, incluso con aportes de los Estados Unidos, unos flujos que están construidos desde hace tiempo, que son comunes”, señalo el presidente Petro en rueda de prensa.

Con esta declaración, el mandatario colombiano hizo referencia a la importancia de activar fronteras prósperas, permitiendo el flujo de energía colombiana a Venezuela para la extracción de petróleo. También destacó que las fronteras cerradas o con sanciones solo favorecen al narcotráfico, por lo que es posible que una vez sean retiradas estas restricciones para que ambos países puedan hacer negocios. Colombia vendiendo energía y comprando hidrocarburos y gas al país vecino sin ser castigada.

En tercer lugar se habló de la crisis con Ecuador, situación ante la cual el presidente norteamericano se ofreció como mediador para resolver la tensión.

Varios desafíos y un solo camino

La reunión deja una reflexión. Cuando las alternativas se han reducido al mínimo, optar por el único camino disponible no responde a la falta de voluntad, sino a una lectura estratégica del contexto.

Antes de la reunión volvimos a ver a un Gustavo Petro provocador, que hizo repensar a varios analistas sobre una posible estrategia enfocada en buscar la cancelación de la reunión. Pero, en las relaciones internacionales, algunas veces es mejor hacer oídos sordos al ruido y abrir la posibilidad a ese único camino que ya estaba planeado: una reunión exitosa que finalizó en buenos términos para las partes.

En el tablero, Colombia sigue siendo el mejor aliado para la lucha contra las drogas de Estados Unidos, pero el más vulnerable. Alejarse de su principal socio comercial sería una operación kamikaze.

En este escenario, la decisión no fue entre opciones equivalentes, sino entre actuar de manera racional o poner a los colombianos a asumir costos mayores por la inacción.

Solo entre enero y noviembre de 2025, Colombia ingresó 13.498,8 millones de dólares fruto de las exportaciones a Estados Unidos, lo que equivale al 30% del total exportado. Dineros de los que dependen familias de floricultores, caficultores, productores de cacao, entre otros sectores de materias primas. Sin esta inyección económica, el país sufriría una crisis económica sin precedentes.

Tranquilidad comercial y electoral

Pero el éxito no solo traslada un ambiente de tranquilidad a los diferentes gremios comerciales. De cara a las elecciones presidenciales, el presidente y, por ende, su sucesor suman puntos. La apertura al diálogo impulsa su imagen de forma más favorable y permite a muchos empresarios sentir la calma de los mercados. En el caso de los floricultores, esto se traduce en un próspero 14 de febrero (Día de San Valentín).

“Gustavo: Un gran Honor. Amor a Colombia: Donald Trump”, rezaba el pie de la fotografía que se tomaron los dos mandatarios al final de la reunión. Una imagen que inmortaliza el momento histórico que fortalece la relación de dos presidentes.

En palabras de Petro, ambos le demostraron al mundo que, a pesar de las diferencias, se pueda dialogar y superar las tensiones. No importa si eso implica salir del Salón Oval llevando gorras rojas con la palabra MAGA (Make America Great Again). Posteriormente, con marcador, el propio Petro corrigió con la letra ‘S’, para convertirlo en un “Make Americas Great Again”, tal como lo hubiera querido Bolívar.

The Conversation

Fernando Cvitanic no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Reunión entre Petro y Trump: el día que el interés de los Estados se impuso a las rencillas y las ideologías – https://theconversation.com/reunion-entre-petro-y-trump-el-dia-que-el-interes-de-los-estados-se-impuso-a-las-rencillas-y-las-ideologias-275054