The science of defiance: A psychology researcher explains why people comply – and how to resist

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Sunita Sah, Professor of Management and Organizations, Cornell University

Defiance need not be aggressive or loud. Sergio Mendoza Hochmann/Moment via Getty Images

You’re in a meeting when your boss suggests changing a number to make the quarterly report look stronger. Heads nod. The slides move on. You feel a knot in your stomach: Do you speak up and risk being branded difficult, or stay silent and become complicit?

Most people picture defiance as dramatic outbursts. In reality, it’s often these small, tense moments where conscience collides with compliance.

I first saw the power of defiance not in the workplace, but closer to home. My mother was the ultimate people-pleaser: timid, polite, eager to accommodate. Barely 4 feet, 10 inches tall, she put everyone else’s needs above her own. But one day, when I was 7, I saw a different side to her.

We were walking home from the grocery store in West Yorkshire, England, when a group of teenage boys blocked our path in a narrow alleyway. They hurled racist insults and told us to “go back home.”

My reaction was instantaneous: Stay quiet, avoid conflict and get past them as quickly as possible. I grabbed my mother’s arm, urging her to move with me. But she didn’t. My quiet, deferential, never-confrontational mother did something completely different. She stopped, turned and looked the boys directly in the eyes. Then she asked, calmly but firmly, “What do you mean?”

She wasn’t loud or aggressive. And in that moment, she showed me that defiance doesn’t always roar, and it can come from the people you least expect.

I’ve carried these lessons into my work as a physician-turned-organizational psychologist. For decades, I’ve studied why people comply, staying silent when they don’t want to, and how they can resist wisely. In my book “Defy: The Power of No in a World that Demands Yes,” I offer a framework based on behavioral science research that can help you defy in ways that are intentional, effective and true to your values.

worried woman seated with another looking at a laptop
One setting where the choice to defy or comply can arise is work.
FG Trade/E+ via Getty Images

What defiance really is

When people think of defiance, they often picture teenagers slamming doors, protesters shouting in the streets or rebels breaking rules just for the thrill of it. But that’s not the kind of defiance I study or the kind that shapes our lives most often.

Defiance is not about being oppositional for its own sake. It’s about choosing to act in line with your values when there is pressure to do otherwise.

That pressure can come from anywhere: a boss urging you to fudge the numbers, a friend nudging you toward something you don’t believe in, a culture telling you to stay in your place. Defiance in those moments might be as small as saying “no,” asking for clarification or simply pausing instead of rushing along with the group. Other times, it means speaking up, challenging authority or maybe walking away.

Seen this way, defiance isn’t a fixed trait that some people are born with and others lack. It’s a practice: a skill you can strengthen over time. Some days you might comply, other days you might resist. What matters is that you have the awareness and the tools to make the choice consciously, rather than letting fear or habit decide for you.

Why people comply

If defiance is so important, why do people so often stay silent?

One reason is a psychological process I’ve uncovered in my research: insinuation anxiety. It arises when people worry that not complying with another person’s wishes may be interpreted as a signal of distrust. Turning down a boss’s request to “adjust” the numbers might feel like you’re implying they’re dishonest. To avoid that discomfort, you go along – even when it violates your values.

Behavioral science has long documented this pull toward compliance. In the 1960s, for example, psychologist Stanley Milgram showed that ordinary people would administer what they believed were dangerous electric shocks to strangers simply because an authority figure told them to.

My own research has shown surprisingly high levels of compliance with obviously bad advice, even when given by a stranger with no consequences for disagreeing. People feel immense social pressure to go along with what others suggest. That’s because if you’ve never been trained in how to say no, it feels uncomfortable and awkward.

A framework for action

If compliance is the human default, how can you build the muscle of defiance? In my research, I’ve developed a simple actionable guide that I call the Defiance Compass. Like a navigation aid, it orients you in difficult situations by asking three questions:

  1. Who am I? What are the core values that matter most to me?
  2. What type of situation is this? Is it safe to resist? Will it have a positive impact?
  3. What does a person like me do in a situation like this? How can I take responsibility and act in a way that’s consistent with my identity and values?
circular chart with arrows connecting the three questions of the defiance compass
Three questions can help you zero in on whether the time is right for you to defy.
Sunita Sah

Asking these questions shifts defiance from a gut reaction to a conscious practice. And here’s what’s important: That third question (“What does a person like me do?”) circles back to the first (“Who am I?”), because how you act again and again becomes who you are.

Defiance doesn’t always mean open confrontation. Sometimes it means asking a clarifying question, buying time or quietly refusing. It can mean speaking up or walking away. The key is to start small, practice regularly and anchor your choices in your values. Like any skill, the more you practice, the more natural it becomes.

Why defiance matters now

Defiance may be risky, but it’s never been more relevant. At work, employees are pressured to meet targets at any cost. In politics, citizens face waves of misinformation and polarization. In everyday life, people struggle to set healthy boundaries. Across all these contexts, the temptation to comply for the sake of comfort is strong.

That’s why learning to defy strategically matters. It protects personal integrity, strengthens institutions and helps sustain democracy. And it doesn’t require being loud or confrontational.

Of course, not every act of defiance is safe or guaranteed to make a difference. Sometimes it comes at real personal cost and some people still choose to act even when the impact isn’t certain: think of Rosa Parks refusing to give up her seat, or Colin Kaepernick taking a knee. In those moments, the act itself becomes the message. Both of those individuals were deeply connected to their values and the assessment is personal: What feels worth the risk to one person might not to another.

Defiance does require practice: noticing when values are at stake, pausing before you nod along, and choosing actions that align with who you want to be. Each act of consent, compliance or defiance shapes not just your story but the stories of our societies.

If you practice defiance, and teach it and model it, you can imagine a different type of society. You can start to envision a world where, in that same alleyway from my childhood, one of the boys will step forward and tell his friends, “That’s not OK. Let them pass.”

The Conversation

Sunita Sah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The science of defiance: A psychology researcher explains why people comply – and how to resist – https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-defiance-a-psychology-researcher-explains-why-people-comply-and-how-to-resist-264567

Rivers are heating up faster than the air − that’s a problem for aquatic life and people

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Li Li (李黎), Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Penn State

Rivers are also heating up as global temperatures rise. Darwin Fan/Moment via Getty Images

When you think about heat waves, you might picture sweltering cities, shimmering asphalt and unbearable summer afternoons. These heat waves dominate the headlines because we feel them directly.

Rivers, on the other hand, are often seen as cool refuges, places to escape the heat of summer.

Yet rivers are heating up, too. In fact, they’re heating up faster than the air.

New research from my team shows that riverine heat waves – periods of abnormally high water temperatures in rivers – are becoming more common, more intense and longer-lasting than they were 40 years ago. Their frequency, intensity and duration are also increasing at rates more than twice as fast as heat waves in the atmosphere.

The increased heat puts more stress on aquatic ecosystems, water quality, energy production and agriculture, and it can threaten species that rely on cool streams.

A hidden threat

Riverine heat waves are disruptive in ways that can cascade through aquatic ecosystems.

Cold-water fish such as trout and salmon are especially vulnerable: Extended periods of abnormally high water temperatures can impair reproduction, slow growth and trigger mass die-offs.

Warmer water also holds less oxygen, potentially suffocating aquatic life. In addition, hot water increases the likelihood of algae blooms and elevates the cost of treating water to make it safe for drinking. Warmer water can also create problems for energy production. Many thermoelectric fossil fuel plants and nuclear plants depend on river water for cooling, and warmer water reduces energy production efficiency, which could mean higher power costs.

A person stands in water and holds a net full of small fish.
Low water levels in California rivers have at times blocked young fish from swimming from river breeding grounds to the ocean, forcing wildlife officials to truck them toward the sea instead.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Despite these serious risks, riverine heat waves have gone quietly unnoticed.

That’s due, in part, to the narrow width of rivers and streams. Oceans and lakes are large enough that they can be monitored consistently by satellites. Rivers, however, are harder to track, especially small rivers. Measuring the temperatures in narrow, winding streams requires high resolution that many satellite sensors lack.

Scientists with universities and government agencies have installed many sensors in streams to measure water temperature, and sensor numbers have proliferated since the 1990s. But the data has been patchy and inconsistent. Until recently, scientists lacked the tools to stitch these fragments into a coherent picture. We developed a way to do it.

AI helps create the full picture

To overcome this challenge, we trained a deep learning model to use scattered and inconsistent records to reconstruct continuous daily water temperatures across 1,471 river sites in the contiguous U.S. from 1980 to 2022.

The reconstructed histories of change enabled us, for the first time, to systematically compare the characteristics of riverine and air heat waves across a large and diverse set of rivers and reveal trends that might otherwise remain invisible.

A chart shows temperature tracking, with dots indicating observed data and AI predictions filling in the gaps based on existing patterns.
River water temperature observations don’t cover all days in this example from New Hampshire, but the AI model can fill the gaps by predicting temperatures. That can help identify river heat waves.
Li Li

The results reveal a troubling pattern.

On average, we found that riverine heat waves occur about half as often as air heat waves, and their temperature increases are a third as intense, but they last nearly twice as long.

More strikingly, their frequency is increasing faster than air heat wave events are. Compared to 1980, an average U.S. river experienced nearly two additional heat wave events in 2022. In 2022, those river heat waves lasted more than three extra days on average than in 1980 and were nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit (almost half a degree Celsius) hotter than in 1980.

Rivers in the Rockies and the Northeast showed some of the steepest increases, driven in part by shrinking snowpacks that once buffered streams with steady supplies of cold meltwater. The rivers are heating up quietly but faster than the air above them.

The drivers: Climate change and human infrastructure

We also wanted to find out whether these trends were mainly driven by climate change or by local infrastructure and other activity, such as dams and agriculture.

A machine learning model we developed to rank the importance of influential environmental factors that drive riverine heat waves found that rising air temperatures, particularly at night, were consistently the strongest factors behind river warming. Declines in snow and streamflow also played major roles, especially in mountain regions where dwindling snowpacks produce less meltwater.

Human infrastructure and other activities also play important supporting roles.

For example, the presence of large dams tends to lengthen heat waves, as warm reservoir water is released downstream. Agriculture shows more complex effects: In some areas, particularly the Midwest, irrigation and crop cover can actually cool rivers by altering local climate and hydrology. But these influences, whether harmful or helpful, are secondary compared to the overarching force of climate change.

What does the future hold?

In a warming world, riverine heat waves threaten to become a critical but underappreciated dimension of the global water–energy–food nexus.

Heat waves often coincide with low streamflows – a likely outcome as climate change reduces runoff from snowmelt. The risks compound. Low, slow-moving water warms more easily and holds less oxygen, creating dangerous conditions for aquatic life and increasing the chances of large-scale die-offs.

These are not just ecological problems. They also directly influence water and food supplies, along with energy reliability.

Unlike air heat waves, riverine heat waves currently remain largely absent from global monitoring systems and adaptation plans. Better understanding the changes and risks will require more coordinated data collection, better global data sharing across agencies and countries, and incorporating river temperature trends into climate risk assessments.

The Conversation

Li Li (李黎) does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Rivers are heating up faster than the air − that’s a problem for aquatic life and people – https://theconversation.com/rivers-are-heating-up-faster-than-the-air-thats-a-problem-for-aquatic-life-and-people-263718

Religion often shapes someone’s view of abortion – but what about a woman’s actual decision?

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Amy Adamczyk, Professor of Sociology and Criminal Justice, City University of New York

A patient prepares to take mifepristone, the first of two pills, for a medication abortion during a visit to a clinic in Kansas City, Kan., in 2022. AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Many factors can shape how someone views abortion – gender, age and education, to name a few. Around the world, however, religious belief is the most powerful predictor that someone will disapprove, as I document in my 2025 book, “Fetal Positions.” Faith traditions’ teachings about abortion vary – and there is diversity of opinions within faiths, too. On average, though, people who say that religion is important in their lives are far more likely to think abortion is morally wrong.

But here’s the paradox: There’s a difference between abstract views and personal decisions. On average, strong religious beliefs and involvement in a religious community do not make an American woman less likely to terminate her first pregnancy, so long as she conceives without a potential marriage partner.

The picture becomes even more complex when we consider not just how religious someone is but which tradition they belong to. Young American women in conservative Protestant churches are about half as likely to say they have aborted a premarital pregnancy than Catholics and mainline Protestants, regardless of how devout they are, according to my co-authored research. Other work has found similar differences among Christian groups. There were too few respondents from other religions to fully assess differences, though unmarried young Jewish women in the U.S. likewise appear to have higher odds of obtaining an abortion than conservative Protestants.

Religion’s role in women’s actual decisions about whether to have an abortion is far more nuanced than abortion attitudes alone would suggest. Understanding these relationships can help lawmakers, advocates and the public develop policies that reflect lived realities, rather than relying on assumptions about ideology alone.

Beyond the clinic

Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, I followed approximately 5,000 women over six years. The data covers a period from the mid-1990s, when the women were teenagers, to the early 2000s, when they were in their early 20s.

My goal was to examine their views about abortion, their sexual behavior, whether they had a premarital pregnancy, and whether they gave birth. The survey also asked respondents to indicate their religious affiliation; how much they regularly attended services, participated in youth group activities and prayed; and how important religion was in their lives.

Longitudinal data is especially useful for sorting out patterns between religion and abortion, compared to surveys that look at a single moment in a woman’s life. For example, if someone is seeking an abortion, but their faith tradition disapproves, that cognitive dissonance may affect how she answers questions about her beliefs.

These six years of data form the basis of my earlier studies and contribute to my recent book. I was particularly interested in decisions about first pregnancies, which are especially pivotal. They can derail a college education, limit career opportunities, and reshape long-term goals in ways that can feel irreversible at a young age.

A brunette woman, her face unseen, sits on a bed as she holds a pregnancy test in two hands.
There’s often a gap between abstract views of abortion and actual decisions.
Viktoriya Skorikova/Moment via Getty Images

I focused only on unmarried young women who were pregnant for the first time. Approximately 25% of the women who had a premarital pregnancy during the six-year period said that they had terminated it. This percentage was roughly the same regardless of how important faith was to them, how much they prayed, or how often they participated in religious activities.

Sociologists Lexie Milmine and Tina Fetner analyzed 2017 data from Canadian women and came to a similar conclusion. They found that neither religious affiliation nor religious service attendance was significantly associated with the odds that a woman reported one or more abortions.

Type, not intensity

There is one religious factor that makes a difference, though: the type of tradition women report belonging to when they were teenagers.

Although various faiths hold different views of abortions, conservative Christian groups, which are influential in the U.S., generally oppose it – including the Southern Baptist Convention, America’s largest Protestant denomination. The Catholic Church also officially disapproves of abortion, though 6 in 10 U.S. Catholics say it should be legal in all or most cases.

Therefore, in addition to researching strength of religious belief and involvement, I also examined whether the type of Christian religious affiliation mattered in shaping abortion decisions.

Focusing on the same group of unmarried young women, I found that regardless of how much they attended religious activities, prayed or reported that religion was very important in their lives, those who affiliated with a conservative Protestant faith when they were teenagers were less likely to terminate their first pregnancies than Catholics or mainline Protestants, which is similar to findings from other research.

A crowd of women in coats hold signs, one of which reads 'Christ is Lord.'
Anti-abortion activists walk past the Supreme Court during the annual March for Life in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 24, 2025.
AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

The attitude-behavior gap

My research highlights the disconnect between religion’s role in shaping public opinion about abortion versus its influence on women’s actual decisions.

When it comes to attitudes, the relationship is clear and powerful. Regardless of which specific faith they affiliate with, people who say religion is important in their lives on average express stronger opposition to abortion.

But when women face the reality of an unintended pregnancy, religion’s influence is more nuanced. The strength of her personal devotion fails to explain whether a woman will actually choose to terminate her first pregnancy. In the U.S., the more influential religious factor seems to be which specific religious tradition she belongs to.

Decisions about later pregnancies may be more complicated. For example, around 6 in 10 U.S. abortion patients have had at least one child. It’s not clear how religion shapes mothers’ decisions about how an unexpected pregnancy would affect their family.

In the U.S., public opinion about reproductive rights is largely driven by different religious factors. When it comes to individual decisions about pregnancy, though, which religious tradition someone is affiliated with seems to hold the most sway – at least for first pregnancies outside of marriage.

The Conversation

Amy Adamczyk has received funding from a range of organizations, including the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Department of Homeland Security, Society for the Scientific Study of Religion, Association for the Sociology of Religion, and the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation for International Scholarly Exchange.

ref. Religion often shapes someone’s view of abortion – but what about a woman’s actual decision? – https://theconversation.com/religion-often-shapes-someones-view-of-abortion-but-what-about-a-womans-actual-decision-265330

Gen Z protests brought about change in Nepal via the powers — and perils — of social media

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Luna KC, Assistant Professor, Global and International Studies, University of Northern British Columbia

Youth protesters in Nepal are in the global spotlight for their angry response to the government’s sweeping social media ban in an apparent attempt to silence their dissent. The government’s actions ignited mass protests — led largely by Gen Z, a cohort made up of young people born between 1997 and 2012.

The Gen Z movement represents a turning point for Nepal politics. The protesters had three key demands: end corruption, end nepotism and reform the country’s political systems.

Their uprising led to the resignation of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and several government ministers. Sushila Karki was then appointed interim prime minister, and the protests have since died down.

Why is the Gen Z protest unique?

Nepal’s Gen Z movement is different from other movements in Nepal.

First, it is led by young people. Second, social media is their main means of communicating their dissent and their agenda.

These protesters are angry that working-class young people are struggling to meet basic everyday needs (food, shelter, jobs, health care, etc.) and facing rising inequality, discrimination and poverty.

That’s in contrast to the children and grandchildren of Nepal’s high-profile elite politicians, accused by the protesters of living in the lap of luxury. Gen Z protesters have demanded information about the source of income of Nepal’s ultra-rich politicians and their families, and called for a thorough investigation.

A segment on how Nepal’s Gen Z protesters targeted #nepokids. (Sky News)

Why are Gen Zs so frustrated?

For a long time, Nepal, with a population of 29.5 million, has been trapped in a poverty cycle. It is ranked 143rd globally in the Human Development Index (2024).

The unemployment rate in 2024 for youth aged 15-24 was 20.82 per cent, and it’s growing. Reports also suggest that more than 1,500 adults leave the country every day in search of work.

In 2021, the Nepal census found that 7.1 per cent of the population was working outside the country and has a median age of 28.

In 2023, Nepali workers sent remittances of US$11 billion back home. In fact, estimates suggest that almost 25 per cent of Nepal’s GDP is from remittances.

There is also growing concern about Nepali worker deaths as people take dangerous jobs; more than 700 workers died from 2018 to 2019 Gen Z frustrations are linked to how their parents leave the country in search of work and do the most high-risk and lowest-paid jobs abroad, which they believe is in stark contrast to the lives of #NepoBabies and #NepoKids.

Gen Z’s digital tactics

Some Gen Z social media users tracked the accounts (on Instagram, TikTok and Facebook) of the children and grandchildren of ultra-rich politicians and shared or reposted images and videos of their luxurious lifestyles.

That included photos taken on high-end vacations in Europe, shopping for designer brands like Louis Vuitton, Prada, Gucci and Cartier, as well as their stays in family properties worth billions.

Social media engagement surged on posts with these images and with hashtags that included #Nepobaby, #NepoKids, #PoliticiansNepoBabyNepal and #Corruption.

Some Gen Zs also made short videos on TikTok and Facebook highlighting corruption, inequality, poverty and nepotism; those videos also went viral.

All of these issues resonated with many Nepali Gen Zs, spurring them to join the protest movement.

Social media ban

Before Sept. 8, Gen Z’s protests were peaceful and mostly took place online. But when the government instituted a ban on social media, Gen Z erupted, with many claiming that the decision was aimed at silencing their voices.

Gen Z is the social media generation, and the ban was regarded as a violation of their rights. They soon took their demands to the streets from the screen, calling for the resignation of the prime minister.

The protest turned into a battlefield as police killed 19 school-aged students on the same day; hundreds were also injured. As of now, the Gen Z protester death toll is 72.

Aftermath

The prime minister resigned on Sept. 9, but the situation further worsened. Protesters burned down key government buildings, including parliament and court buildings, private businesses, banks and the homes of politicians and business people across the country.

After a series of talks between the chief of the Nepal army, Ashok Raj Sigdel, Nepali President Ram Chadra Poudel and Gen Z leader Sudan Gurung, an interim six-month government was formed. Karki was appointed the first female prime minister of the country.

The interim cabinet’s priorities include the upcoming election in March 2026, tackling corruption, investigating the killings of Gen Z protesters as well as the destruction of public and private property.

The power and perils of social media

Before the Nepal protests, dissenting youth in countries that include Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar have used social media to air their grievances.

A study has shown how social media plays a role in empowering youth, amplifying marginal voices and building transnational solidarity. Examples include some of the most popular global social movements like #BlackLivesMatter, #MeToo, #MahsaAmini.




Read more:
A year after Mahsa Amini’s death, Iran’s women continue their long fight for ‘women, life, freedom’


But its role in protest movements can also be problematic.

Amid the Gen Z protests in Nepal, reports of disinformation and misinformation are spreading. A video claiming 35 human skeletons were found in a store was posted on Sept. 13 by a Facebook user with 63,000 followers, fuelling panic among the protesters. The claim was determined to be false.

Gen Z protesters in Nepal and beyond are clearly having some success in bringing about social and political change. But with the growth of artificial intelligence, creating fake content is no longer difficult, and false information can proliferate quickly amid this generation.

The Conversation

Luna KC does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Gen Z protests brought about change in Nepal via the powers — and perils — of social media – https://theconversation.com/gen-z-protests-brought-about-change-in-nepal-via-the-powers-and-perils-of-social-media-265365

Cars versus kids: How resistance to change limits children’s right to the city

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Patricia Collins, Associate Professor, Queen’s University, Ontario

Many Canadians over the age of 40 likely remember spending their childhoods playing on the street and moving around their communities on their own or with friends. And, according to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 11, cities should in fact be places where all residents, including children, can thrive — they have as much right to occupy and use urban streets as motorists do.

However, children today are less active and independently mobile and aren’t engaging in as much outdoor free play.

In Canada, a major reason for this trend is that we’ve deprived children of their right to the city, including the freedom to safely play and move about on the streets near their homes and schools without the need for adult supervision.

Innovative interventions such as School Streets are critically needed. School Streets are temporary, car-free zones created in front of schools during peak drop-off and pick-up times to improve student safety and encourage walking and cycling

Yet, our research has found that they often face stiff resistance. By closing streets adjacent to schools to cars, School Streets confront drivers with a reimagined and restructured public space they may not be ready to embrace.

Planning cities for cars, not kids

The stripping of children’s rights to the city is a centuries-old project in North America.

Prior to the mass production of the automobile, children could often be found playing on city streets. But as automobile ownership became commonplace, growing numbers of children were being injured and killed by motorists.

Rather than limit where automobiles could travel, urban planners and public health officials advocated for the creation of other places for children to play, hidden away from traffic, such as neighbourhood parks.

This automobile-centric approach to city planning created a societal shift in attitudes about the kinds of spaces considered appropriate for kids to play and move about. Consequently, we now view it as normal not to see or hear children on city streets.

By disempowering children in terms of where they can go in cities, our society has developed assumptions that children are not sufficiently responsible or competent to navigate their communities.

Children’s mobility in car-centric cities

Ironically, as we have become more fearful of allowing children to move about freely, driving children to their destinations has increased in response to this fear. We have largely confined children’s movement in cities to vehicles.

Consequently, we now face an immense societal challenge in enabling children to move independently in their communities, particularly in spaces commonly occupied by children, like outside of primary schools.

In terms of the journey to school, research has shown that risky driving behaviours by parents during morning drop-off times — like letting them out in unsafe areas, obstructing views, making U-turns and speeding — are commonplace.

These behaviours are associated with an increased risk of children being struck by motorists. Hazardous conditions around schools, combined with widespread perceptions that children do not belong on the street and are incapable of getting to school on their own, reinforce the already low rates of walking or bicycling to school among children in Canada.

Innovating cities for children

School Streets can address both issues: reducing the real dangers posed by automobiles in spaces occupied by children while also helping all citizens reimagine how, and by whom, streets can be used.

Typically implemented by municipal governments or not-for-profits, School Streets enable children to come and go safely from school. Though they’re common in many European cities, their uptake in Canada has been slower.

From 2020 to 2024, we led a study entitled Levelling the Playing Fields, in which we systematically evaluated School Street interventions operating in Kingston, Ont. and Montréal. The findings from this study helped launch the National Active School Street Initiative (NASSI).

Funded by the Public Health Agency of Canada, NASSI helps Canadian cities learn about and implement School Streets. Through NASSI, year-long School Streets were launched in September 2025 in Kingston, Mississauga, Ont. and Vancouver.

In September 2026, additional year-long School Streets are expected to launch in Kingston, Mississauga, Vancouver and Montréal, while four-week pilots are planned for Ottawa, Peterborough, Ont., Markham, Ont., Toronto, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Calgary.

Reactions to innovating cities for children

Launching and sustaining School Streets requires support from a broad range of people, including municipal councillors and staff, school administrators, teachers, parents, residents, and police departments.

In our work in Kingston and Montréal, we encountered many champions of School Streets whose support was instrumental in launching and sustaining these interventions. However, we also faced resistance to varying degrees. In some cases, this resistance came after interventions were launched, and in other cases, it was sufficient to prevent the intervention from launching at all.

Rather than acknowledging the benefits School Streets could offer, the resistance was often framed around risks to children — precisely the problem School Streets aim to address.

We were told that School Streets would diminish children’s awareness of road safety, put children at risk of being run over by rogue motorists and was inherently risky because children don’t belong on the street. We suspect these arguments were not truly about risks to children, but rather an unwillingness to share power, space and opportunities with children in urban settings.

We also heard a range of arguments shaped by what’s known as motonormativity — a form of unconscious bias in automobile-centric societies that assumes car usage as a universal norm and aligns solutions with the needs of motorists.

In this vein, we heard that School Streets excluded children whose parents needed to drive their child to school; that residents and visitors would be unacceptably delayed by the street closure; that school staff would be deprived of nearby parking; that children occupying the street would be too noisy and cause damage to parked vehicles; and that automobile congestion would be pushed to other streets.

The most troubling argument made against School Streets was that there were more deserving children in other neighbourhoods, presenting a thinly veiled Not-In-My-Backyard attitude.

School Streets are intended to enable children to reclaim their right to the city. Many members of our society, however, are not yet ready to afford children these rights because they conflict with strongly held perceptions about the places children are meant to occupy.

The Conversation

For the Levelling the Playing Fields Study, Patricia Collins received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (project grant number PJT-175153). For the National Active School Streets Initiative, Patricia Collins receives funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada.

Patricia Collins was previously affiliated with Kingston Coalition for Active Transportation, a not-for-profit group that was responsible for overseeing the implementation of the School Streets in Kingston. She is no longer a member of that group.

For the Levelling the Playing Fields project Katherine L. Frohlich received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research Funding numer PJT175153. For the NASSI project Katherine Frohlich receives funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada.

ref. Cars versus kids: How resistance to change limits children’s right to the city – https://theconversation.com/cars-versus-kids-how-resistance-to-change-limits-childrens-right-to-the-city-263254

The warning signs are clear: We’re heading toward a digital crisis

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Dean Curran, Associate Professor, Sociology, University of Calgary

People’s lives are more enmeshed with digital systems than ever before, increasing users’ vulnerability and insecurity. From data leaks like the 2017 Equifax data breach to the more recent cyberattack on British retailer Marks & Spencer, business operations and data on the internet continue to be vulnerable.

There are good reasons to believe that little will be done about these risks until a massive society-wide crisis emerges.

My research suggests that there are significant failures in our current approaches to risk and innovation. Digital technologies remake social life through new technologies, communication platforms and forms of artificial intelligence. All of which, while very powerful, are also highly risky in terms of malfunctioning and vulnerability to being manipulated.

Yet, governments are generally unable to distinguish between what are actually valuable contributions to society and what are intensely socially damaging.

CBC’s The National looks at data breaches.

A massive social experiment

The digital economy includes “those businesses that increasingly rely upon information technology, data and the internet for their business models.” The companies dominating the digital economy continue to undertake a massive social experiment where they keep the lion’s share of the benefits while shunting the risks onto society as a whole.

This could lead to a systemic digital crisis, ranging from a widespread breakdown of basic infrastructure, such as electricity or telecommunications due to a cyberattack, to an attack that modifies existing infrastructure to make it dangerous.

There are significant similarities between the current trajectory of the digital economy and the 2008 financial crisis. In particular, what we are increasingly seeing in the digital world, which we saw in the pre-crisis financial world, is what American sociologist Charles Perrow called “tight coupling.”

Perrow argues that when systems exhibit high levels of interconnection without sufficient redundancy to compensate for failures, it can lead to catastrophic consequences.

Likewise, high levels of complexity are generally considered to make highly interconnected systems riskier. Unanticipated risks and connections can lead to failures cascading across the system.

Increasing interdependence

Our existing digital economy shares many of these characteristics. The digital economy is characterized by a business model that focuses on businesses getting as large as possible as quickly as possible.

The lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis and the current digital economy share both the amplification of interdependency alongside the reduction of redundancy. In the case of finance, this proceeded through massive borrowing to leverage earnings, leaving a smaller ratio of money left to cover any possible losses.

In the digital economy, this need to continually collect data increases interdependencies among datasets, platforms, corporations and networks. This increased interdependency is fundamental to the core business model of the digital economy.

The undermining of redundancy in the digital sphere is manifested in the “move-fast-and-break-things” ethos in which digital companies eliminate or acquire competitors as quickly as possible while eliminating analog alternatives to their own digital networks.

Last, these digital behemoths and their rapid growth increase the complexity of the digital economy and the monopolistic networks that dominate it.

BBC News covers last summer’s flight cancellations.

Obvious warning signs

There is a key difference between the 2008 financial crisis and the contemporary digital economy. Unlike in the lead-up to the crisis, where a partially finance-driven prosperity quieted any obvious warning signs, the warning signs in the digital economy are front and centre for everyone to see.

The 2017 WannaCry and NotPetya malware attacks each caused billions of dollars in damages. More recently, the CrowdStrike failure in 2024 cancelled thousands of flights, and even took television stations off the air. Constant hacks, ransomware attacks and data leakages are warning signs that this is a deeply fragile system.

AI has taken many of these vulnerabilities into overdrive, while adding new risks, such as AI hallucinations and the exponential growth in misinformation. The speed and scale of AI are expected to intensify existing risks to confidentiality, system integrity and availability.

This is potentially the most significant, though unfortunate element in this story. There is massive system risk, yet they are not addressed directly, and the processes heightening these risks continue to accelerate.

This suggests a deeper problem in our politics. While we do have some ability to regulate after the damage is done, we struggle to prevent the next crisis.

The Conversation

Dean Curran received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

ref. The warning signs are clear: We’re heading toward a digital crisis – https://theconversation.com/the-warning-signs-are-clear-were-heading-toward-a-digital-crisis-264529

Banks retreat from climate change commitments – but it’s business more than politics

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By David L Levy, Professor Emeritus of Management, UMass Boston

The oil – and fossil fuel financing – continues to profitably flow. AP Photo/Gary Kazanjian

Another business-led effort to fight climate change is unraveling.

On Aug. 27, 2025, the Net-Zero Banking Alliance suspended its activities after several major U.S. and European banks backed out.

While most observers are blaming the strong political backlash in the U.S. against climate change action and sustainable investing, we believe the banks didn’t need much of a push: These net-zero alliances never made much business sense and were not particularly effective at fighting climate change. Indeed, for us the puzzle was why they had flourished in the first place.

To examine their rise and fall, we recently conducted a research project that encompassed interviews with more than 80 executives from various financial institutions, activist organizations and oil and gas companies.

Powerful allies grasped climate risks

The Net-Zero Banking Alliance was founded in 2021. Members agreed to limit lending to carbon-intense sectors so that total greenhouse gas emissions from companies in the banks’ loan portfolios are close to zero by 2050.

This target aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement but was not binding and lacked clear shorter-term targets and plans. Similar net-zero networks were established for insurance, asset management and other financial areas, all under the umbrella of the United Nations Environment Program’s Finance Initiative. Over the past 16 months, the insurance and asset managers’ alliances have also suspended their activities.

These net-zero alliances were built on the premise that climate risk equals financial risk and that the challenge requires a collective response. Their goal was to leverage the power of finance to push companies to decarbonize their products and processes.

Key financial regulators, central banks and a few of the largest asset managers propelled these alliances because they perceived that climate change poses serious long-term systemic risks to markets and economies around the world. Influential figures such as Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, and former Bank of England head Mark Carney, now the prime minister of Canada, lent legitimacy to these initiatives.

Some environmental groups also supported these alliances as a smart strategy to pressure companies on climate. Many other financial institutions then joined the net-zero bandwagon, but our research revealed that they didn’t do so because of concern about climate-related financial risks. Rather, they felt an array of pressure from peers, investors, activists, regulators and even their families.

Many people we interviewed mentioned reputational risk as a key driver and saw a low-carbon transition as inevitable, driven by regulation, technological innovation and consumer demand. This was the Biden era, with billions of dollars flowing to clean energy through the Inflation Reduction Act.

The burgeoning field also spawned a specialized but lucrative industry of data providers and consultants who actively marketed carbon management, disclosure and broader sustainability services. The global market for sustainability data and software was estimated at more than US$1 billion in 2024 and growing rapidly.

Climate strategy and sustainability reporting was the fastest-growing business sector for accounting and consulting firms. And asset managers were happy to collect higher fees for funds screened for sustainability – even though these funds have not outperformed the broader market.

These vested interests spurred continued expansion of net-zero networks. Indeed, at its peak in 2024, the Net-Zero Banking Alliance included over 140 members globally with $74 trillion in estimated total assets, representing over 40% of global banking assets.

wind turbine components await assembly on a pier in connecticut
The Trump administration has canceled several offshore wind farm projects, such as one that’s nearly complete and intended to serve Rhode Island and Connecticut – though its fate is still in court.
AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Political backlash

Given the size and scope of these net-zero networks, what triggered their rapid collapse?

One major factor, of course, was the political backlash against anything connected with climate action and sustainable investing following the 2024 election of President Donald Trump.

Finance officials in more than 20 U.S. states have demanded that major asset managers restrict the use of environment, social and governance benchmarks, accusing them of eroding “traditional fiduciary duty” and claiming they hurt investors.

In August, 23 Republican attorneys general accused organizations created to set standards for corporate climate disclosures of operating an anticompetitive “climate cartel” and violating antitrust laws.

Fossil fuels – too lucrative to abandon

While the political pressure in the U.S. has indeed been intense, the collapse of net-zero networks and the broader corporate retreat from climate commitments is largely due to the continued profitability of fossil fuels and the high costs and risks of deep decarbonization. Investors and banks, of course, want to keep on financing profitable companies and avoid pressuring their clients to take risky measures.

Oil companies such as BP and Shell that had relatively strong climate targets suffered financially as a result, prompting them to retreat from these targets and shift capital from renewable projects back toward fossil fuels. High energy prices in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war made the sector even more lucrative. Low-carbon fuels and processes for industries such as aviation, steel and cement are still very expensive.

Moreover, the Trump administration is abolishing most subsidies for clean energy and freezing permits for offshore wind, while easing regulations and opening more land for oil and gas exploration.

These economic incentives made it hard for the banking alliance to reduce financing for fossil fuels – and the money has kept on flowing into oil and gas projects.

European banks that sharply cut funding to fossil fuel companies saw their business diverted to other banks and to private, nonbank sources of finance, which has soared in the past two years. Facing this loss of business, major banks’ lending to oil and gas companies surged in 2024, driving loans to a three-year high of $869 billion.

The costs of membership in the net-zero alliances also increased over time, with the adoption of stricter standards that called for specific plans and timelines for ending fossil fuel financing entirely. The new standards also required loan recipients to disclose Scope 3 emissions, which include emissions from a company’s suppliers and customers.

Managers in financial institutions told us that the increasingly complex and demanding requirements were generating strong pushback from their clients. We also heard that membership was turning from a reputational asset to a liability, as activist organizations called out the hypocrisy of continued fossil fuel lending despite their commitments to phasing it out.

Ignoring climate change’s long-term risks

Although banks are rushing back to finance fossil fuel projects, these loans typically have long terms of 10 to 25 years. This means they carry the risk that an eventual transition to clean energy will make these projects worthless, “stranded assets.” One study estimates that investors are currently exposed to more than $1 trillion in potential losses.

Why do banks often ignore these risks?

Our interviewees mentioned the organizational silos that separate analysts who assess climate risks from the loan originators. In other words, the employees deciding where to lend money may not be talking to the team that best understands the long-term risks. Moreover, current risk assessment tools are quite crude and don’t generate the quantitative metrics that loan underwriters want.

Finally, loans are increasingly repackaged and sold, or securitized, into the larger corporate debt market, obscuring the risks.

Climate risks are real and growing

The Net-Zero Banking Alliance isn’t disappearing entirely. The group is currently deciding on whether to restructure into a much weaker “framework initiative” that provides voluntary guidance instead of binding commitments.

And some banks leaving the alliance have stated that they will maintain their climate goals and sustainability policies.

But climate risks are real and growing. The Boston Consulting Group recently estimated that just the physical risks – floods, drought and wildfires – could cost companies up to 25% of their profits by 2050 and substantially cut global GDP.

A transition to a low-carbon economy will cost trillions of dollars and create massive disruption – as well as opportunities – as new technologies and companies emerge. The longer that action is delayed, the greater the risks to the planet – and of more drastic shocks to the global economy and financial system.

The Conversation

David L Levy receives funding from the BSF, the Bi-national US-Israel Science Foundation

Rami Kaplan receives funding from the BSF, the Bi-national US-Israel Science Foundation

ref. Banks retreat from climate change commitments – but it’s business more than politics – https://theconversation.com/banks-retreat-from-climate-change-commitments-but-its-business-more-than-politics-265176

Why you seriously need to stop trying to be funny at work

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Peter McGraw, Professor of Marketing and Psychology, University of Colorado Boulder

Goofing off at the office doesn’t do you any good. Milan Markovic/E+ via Getty Images

How can you get ahead in your career and still enjoy the ride?

One solution offered in business books, LinkedIn posts and team-building manuals is to use humor. Sharing jokes, sarcastic quips, ironic memes and witty anecdotes, the advice goes, will make you more likable, ease stress, strengthen teams, spark creativity and even signal leadership potential.

We are professors of marketing and management who study humor and workplace dynamics. Our own research – and a growing body of work by other scholars – shows that it’s harder to be funny than most people think. The downside of cracking a bad joke is often larger than what you might gain by landing a good one.

Fortunately, you don’t have to tell sidesplitting jokes to make humor work for you. You can learn to think like a comedian instead.

Humor is risky business

Comedy works by bending and breaking norms – and when those rules aren’t broken in just the right way, it’s more likely to harm your reputation than to help your team.

We developed the “benign violation theory” to explain what makes things funny – and why attempts at humor so often backfire, especially in the workplace. Essentially, humor arises when something is both wrong and OK at the same time.

People find jokes funny when they break rules while seeming harmless. Miss one of those ingredients when you tell a joke and your audience won’t appreciate it. When it’s all benign and there’s no violation, you get yawns. When it’s all violation and not benign, you could end up triggering outrage.

It’s hard enough to get laughs in the darkness of a comedy club. Under fluorescent office lights, that razor-thin line becomes even harder to walk. What feels wrong but OK to one colleague can feel simply wrong to another, especially across differences in seniority, culture, gender or even the mood they’re in.

The hit sitcom ‘The Office’ pokes fun at the cringeworthy jokes cracked by a hapless boss.

An advertising study

In our experiments, when everyday people are asked to “be funny,” most attempts land flat or cross lines.

In a humorous caption contest with business students, described in Peter McGraw’s book on global humor practices, “The Humor Code,” the captions weren’t particularly funny to begin with. However, the ones that were rated by judges as the most funny were often also rated the most distasteful.

Being funny without being offensive is of paramount importance. This is particularly true for women, as a robust literature shows women face harsher backlash than men for behavior seen as offensive or norm-violating such as expressing anger, acting dominantly or even “making asks” in negotiations.

Don’t be that guy.

You might end up getting no respect

Research by other scholars who examine leader and manager behavior in organizations tells a similar story.

In one study, managers who used humor effectively were seen as more confident and competent, boosting their status. Yet when their attempts misfired, those same managers lost status and credibility. Other researchers have found that failed humor doesn’t just hurt a manager’s status – it also makes employees less likely to respect that manager, seek their advice, or trust their leadership.

Even when jokes land, humor can backfire. In one study, marketing students instructed to write “funny” copy for advertisements wrote ads that were funnier, but also less effective, than students instructed to write “creative” or “persuasive” copy.

Another study found that bosses who joke too often push employees into pretending to be amused, which drains energy, reduces job satisfaction and increases burnout. And the risks are higher for women due to a double standard. When women use humor in presentations, they are often judged as being less capable and having lower status than men.

The bottom line is that telling a great joke rarely gets you a promotion. And cracking a bad one can jeopardize your job – even if you’re not a talk show host who earns a living making people laugh.

Flip the script

Instead of trying to be funny on the job, we recommend that you focus on what we call “thinking funny” – as described in another of McGraw’s books, “Shtick to Business.”

“The best ideas come as jokes,” advertising legend David Ogilvy once said. “Try to make your thinking as funny as possible.”

But Ogilvy wasn’t telling executives to crack jokes in meetings. He was encouraging employees to think like comedians by flipping expectations, leveraging their networks and finding their niche.

Comics often lead you one way and then flip the script. Comedian Henny Youngman, a master of one-liners, famously quipped, “When I read about the dangers of drinking, I gave up … reading.” The business version of this convention is to challenge an obvious assumption.

For example, Patagonia’s “Don’t Buy This Jacket” campaign, which the outdoor gear company rolled out Black Friday in 2011 as a full-page ad in The New York Times, paradoxically boosted sales by calling out overconsumption.

To apply this method, pick a stale assumption your team holds, such as that adding features to a product always improves it or that having more meetings will lead to smoother coordination, and ask, “What if the opposite were true?”

You’ll discover options that standard brainstorming misses.

Create a chasm

When comedian Bill Burr has his fans in stitches, he knows some people won’t find his jokes funny – and he doesn’t try to win them over.

We’ve observed that many of the best comics don’t try to please everyone. They succeed by deliberately narrowing their audience. And we also find that businesses that do the same build stronger brands.

For example, when Nebraska’s tourism board embraced “Honestly, it’s not for everyone” in a 2019 campaign, targeting out-of-state visitors, web traffic jumped 43%.

Some people want hot tea. Others want iced tea. Serving warm tea satisfies no one. Likewise, you can succeed in business by deciding whom your idea is for, and whom it’s not for, then tailoring your product, policy or presentation accordingly.

Cooperate to innovate

Stand-up may look like a solo act. But comics depend on feedback – punch-ups from fellow comedians and reactions from audiences – iterating jokes in the same way lean startups may innovate new products.

Building successful teams at work means listening before speaking, making your partners look good, and balancing roles. Improv teacher Billy Merritt has described three types of improvisers. Pirates are risk-takers. Robots are structure builders. Ninjas are adept at both, taking risks and building structures.

A team designing a new app, for instance, needs all three: Pirates to propose bold features, robots to streamline the interface, and ninjas to bridge gaps. Empowering everyone in these roles leads to braver ideas with fewer blind spots.

Gifts aren’t universal

Telling someone to “be funny” is like telling them to “be musical.” Many of us can keep a beat, but few have what it takes to become rock stars.

That’s why we argue that it’s smarter to think like a comedian than to try to act like one.

By reversing assumptions, cooperating to innovate, and creating chasms, professionals can generate fresh solutions and stand out – without becoming an office punchline.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why you seriously need to stop trying to be funny at work – https://theconversation.com/why-you-seriously-need-to-stop-trying-to-be-funny-at-work-265036

Personal scandals sink CEOs faster than financial fraud, research shows

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Michael Nalick, Assistant Professor of Management, University of Denver

A CEO’s canoodling with his company’s human resources chief – caught on the “kiss cam” at a Coldplay concert – made global headlines this summer. Beyond the memes and tabloid fodder, personal lives were shattered and a company was left in turmoil after its leader’s sudden exit.

The case, involving the AI firm Astronomer, may be the most visible of recent CEO personal scandals – think sex affairs, drug abuse or embarrassing behavior – but it’s not an isolated incident. Just weeks following the Coldplay “kiss cam,” the CEO of Nestlé was shown the door for similar behavior involving a relationship with a subordinate. Personal scandals have been the top cause of CEO terminations in recent years.

How do these scandals stack up to other corporate indiscretions, such as financial fraud? As a management professor, I knew that there’s lots of research on CEOs’ financial crimes, but surprisingly little on personal misdeeds.

So my colleagues and I examined nearly 400 CEO scandals involving either financial or personal misconduct. In this research, published in August 2025 in the journal Strategic Organization, we found that not all CEO scandals are treated equally: The type makes all the difference.

An exuberant woman in the stands at a Phillies game is shown on a jumbotron holding up a sign reading: We are not here cheating on our significant others -- go Phils!
The Coldplay incident became the subject of ridicule at public events for days, such as at this July 18, 2025, Major League Baseball game.
Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images

Personal scandals are harder to survive

For most people, personal indiscretions – such as having an extramarital affair or abusing drugs – are a private matter. But for CEOs, even scandals unrelated to business create doubt about their judgment, integrity and leadership. The result is usually career-ending for the CEO, research shows, and can create lasting harm for the company.

We found that CEOs overwhelmingly exit in the wake of personal scandals – five times as often as CEOs who commit financial misconduct do, in fact. And strong business performance doesn’t tend to offer protection.

For example, Hewlett-Packard’s Mark Hurd, who’s widely credited with turning around HP in the mid-2000s, was ousted following a very visible personal misconduct scandal 15 years ago. The fallout was swift: The company’s stock fell nearly 10% immediately after the announcement, and with leadership in a tailspin, it dropped more than 40% within a year.

Why bad numbers come with better odds

Companies are also routinely accused of “cooking the books.” In recent months, several firms have been forced to restate their earnings after their financial statements didn’t add up. These scandals shake investor trust, trigger sharp drops in company stock and often lead to the chief financial officer’s departure – with some CEOs following suit.

However, while cooking the books is considered a severe form of corporate misconduct, our research suggests that it has fewer job-ending repercussions for CEOs than personal scandals do. Roughly half of all CEOs implicated in financial scandals survive, we found – because, unlike in personal scandals, CEOs can often shift blame.

We also found that CEOs dismissed due to financial scandals tend to be replaced with outside candidates, which has been shown to stabilize a company’s stock price and lead to stronger long-term performance.

It might be surprising to learn that a CEO’s personal misconduct can come at a greater cost – both to the business and the executive – than outright financial fraud. Is corporate America overestimating the importance of CEOs’ private behavior? Or is it underestimating the importance of cooking the books?

While I don’t have answers to these questions, I think our findings show the need for more discussion – and more research.

The Conversation

I have received funding from Deloitte for a separate project on sociopolitical activism.

ref. Personal scandals sink CEOs faster than financial fraud, research shows – https://theconversation.com/personal-scandals-sink-ceos-faster-than-financial-fraud-research-shows-265725

Les pressions de Donald Trump sur la Fed annoncent-elles la fin du dollar ?

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, Professeure d’économie, ESCP Business School

Le président des États-Unis Donald Trump, multiplie les critiques contre la banque centrale, Federal Reserve, trop timorée à ses yeux. Derrière d’évidents conflits d’intérêt à court terme, Trump pourrait bien remettre en cause la crédibilité de la Fed, un des piliers de la puissance mondiale du dollar.


Depuis quelques semaines, la Maison Blanche intensifie ses critiques à l’encontre de la banque centrale des États-Unis (Federal Reserve, Fed). Ces remarques répétées suscitent des interrogations sur le respect de l’indépendance de la Fed et, plus encore, de fortes inquiétudes sur la stabilité macroéconomique et financière des États-Unis.

Les prises de position du président Trump sur la politique monétaire de la Fed ne sont pas nouvelles. Le 19 juillet 2018, il exprimait déjà son désaccord avec la politique des taux d’intérêt menée par la banque centrale. Il rompait ainsi avec la tradition qui voulait que l’exécutif s’abstienne de commenter afin de préserver l’indépendance de la Fed et de maintenir la confiance des marchés financiers. À l’époque, ses éclats semblaient surtout médiatiques. Mais aujourd’hui, Trump 2 paraît engager une remise en cause plus structurelle de l’architecture économique et financière, appelant à une attention particulière.

Stimuler la croissance à tout prix

Depuis son retour à la Maison Blanche, Trump exige une baisse des taux pour stimuler la croissance. Il intensifie ses attaques contre la Fed. Après avoir critiqué le maintien du taux directeur le 18 mars 2025, menacé de limoger Jerome Powell le 17 avril dernier, puis multiplié les insultes publiques, il a exigé le 20 août la démission de Lisa Cook, une des sept gouverneurs de la Fed. La nomination de nouveaux membres permettrait à l’exécutif de modifier l’équilibre des votes et d’infléchir la politique monétaire.




À lire aussi :
À quoi sert l’indépendance des banques centrales ?


Le Federal Reserve Act de 1913 autorise la révocation d’un gouverneur « pour motif valable » (faute grave, manquement ou incapacité). Cette disposition, jamais utilisée, reste juridiquement incertaine. La tentative de destitution, rejetée en première instance, le 16 septembre 2025, a donc suscité de fortes inquiétudes des économistes, médias et marchés financiers sur l’indépendance de la Fed et la politisation de la politique monétaire.

Or, l’indépendance des banques centrales est la clé de voûte de la stabilité monétaire. Le Système de la réserve fédérale, créé en 1914 pour répondre aux paniques bancaires du XIXe siècle, a été conçu pour protéger la banque centrale des pressions politiques. Cette autonomie a été consolidée par le Banking Act de 1935 et par l’accord de 1951 avec le Trésor.

Outil de lutte contre l’inflation

Cette indépendance est aussi un instrument essentiel de lutte contre l’inflation. Sans elle, un gouvernement pourrait chercher à financer ses déficits en poussant la banque centrale à créer davantage de monnaie ou à abaisser ses taux. Ces politiques stimuleraient artificiellement la demande, gonfleraient la masse monétaire et provoqueraient une hausse des prix, entraînant in fine une dépréciation de la monnaie.

L’histoire a montré les effets d’un manque d’indépendance des banques centrales. Dans l’Allemagne des années 1920, la Reichsbank, sous contrôle de l’État, finançait déficits et réparations de guerre par création monétaire, provoquant l’hyperinflation de 1923. On retrouve des mécanismes similaires au Zimbabwe (2007–2009), au Venezuela (2010–2020) et, plus récemment, en Turquie, où les pressions politiques sur la banque centrale ont alimenté une inflation durable.

Les bases académiques de cette indépendance sont en revanche plus récentes. Dans les années 1970, Kydland et Prescott (1977), puis Barro et Gordon (1982), ont montré que, sans autonomie ni mandats crédibles, les politiques monétaires perdent leur efficacité et nourrissent des anticipations inflationnistes persistantes.

L’importance de la crédibilité

Les agents économiques tiennent compte du degré d’indépendance de la banque centrale. Quand celle-ci perd en crédibilité, ils doutent de sa capacité à respecter son mandat – maintenir une inflation modérée, fixée à 2 % pour la Fed. Résultat : face à un déficit budgétaire croissant, ils s’attendent à plus d’inflation, augmentent leurs prix par anticipation et enclenchent un cercle autoréalisateur qui alimente la hausse générale des prix.

De nombreuses études empiriques confirment le lien entre indépendance des banques centrales et faible inflation, comme l’ont montré Grilli, Masciandaro et Tabellini (1991), Alesina et Summers (1993) ou encore Bodea et Hicks (2015). Et la question reste d’actualité. En 2024, le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) a publié un nouvel indice mesurant l’indépendance des banques centrales, qui devrait alimenter de nouvelles recherches et débats.

En résumé, sans indépendance, une banque centrale perd sa crédibilité – et, avec elle, sa capacité à maîtriser l’inflation.

Baisse des taux

Le souhait du président Trump de voir baisser les taux d’intérêt directeurs s’est en partie concrétisé, le 17 septembre 2025 (baisse des taux d’un quart de point), Powell répondant ainsi aux mauvais résultats du marché du travail américain (le chômage atteignant 4,3 % en août 2025, son plus haut niveau depuis octobre 2021, BLS, 2025). Cette baisse des taux directeurs sur fond de ralentissement économique est en accord avec le double mandat de la Fed ; c’est-à-dire, maîtriser l’inflation et favoriser une économie proche du plein emploi.

Mettra-t-elle fin aux attaques contre l’indépendance de la Fed ? Peu probable. En effet, en juillet, le président annonçait vouloir une baisse de 300 points de base (soit passer d’un taux directeur de 4 % à 1 %). Une réduction drastique jamais mise en œuvre en une seule fois et historiquement intervenue seulement lors de périodes de profondes récessions, comme, par exemple, en 2007-2008.

Un lien dangereux entre l’exécutif et la Fed

L’indépendance de la Fed pourrait également être fragilisée par la récente nomination par Trump de Stephen Miran (actuel président du Conseil des conseillers économiques, Council of Economic Advisers, CEA) au siège vacant du Conseil des gouverneurs de la banque centrale. Celui-ci a indiqué qu’il ne démissionnerait pas de ses fonctions au CEA, mais prendrait un congé sans solde – créant ainsi un lien institutionnel inédit entre la Fed et l’exécutif. De par la loi, un gouverneur, nommé par le président et confirmé par le Sénat, ne peut occuper un autre poste dans l’appareil de l’État, évitant ainsi des conflits d’intérêt.

Par ailleurs, Miran, comme Trump, défend une politique d’affaiblissement du dollar, qualifiée d’« accord de Mar-a-Lago ». Une baisse significative des taux directeurs entraînerait une diminution des rendements de la dette souveraine américaine et de sa valeur en devises étrangères réduisant ainsi son attractivité pour les investisseurs étrangers alors que 30,2 % du stock de la dette émise par le Trésor américain est détenu par des investisseurs internationaux, (Congressional Research Service).

France 24, septembre 2025.

Un système financier en voie de fragilisation

Outre sa mission de politique monétaire, la Fed est également chargée de veiller à la stabilité financière, de superviser le secteur bancaire et de garantir le bon fonctionnement des systèmes de paiement. Or, plusieurs annonces de la Maison Blanche suscitent des inquiétudes quant à la solidité de l’architecture financière internationale et à la stabilité du système bancaire américain (CEPR, 2025).

Le 18 février 2025, un décret présidentiel a lancé une refonte des fonctions de réglementation et de supervision bancaires exercées par la Fed (Maison Blanche, 2025). Un assouplissement de ces réglementations pourrait conduire les banques à pratiquer des ratios de levier (actifs totaux rapportés au capital) trop élevés, comme avant la crise de 2008. La stabilité du système bancaire se verrait compromise.

En août 1971, lorsque le président Nixon annonça la suspension de la convertibilité du dollar en or, son secrétaire au Trésor John B. Connally prononça cette phrase restée célèbre :

« Le dollar est notre monnaie, mais c’est votre problème. »

Les décisions récentes de la Maison Blanche ravivent l’actualité de cette déclaration. Le dollar joue un rôle primordial dans l’architecture financière internationale. Si ce rôle confère aux États-Unis un « privilège exorbitant » (Eichengreen, 2011), il repose sur la confiance internationale dans la stabilité de l’économie et des institutions américaines.

Une intensification des tensions commerciales et financières pourrait éroder cette confiance, incitant banques centrales et investisseurs internationaux – notamment la Chine – à diversifier davantage leurs réserves de change et investissements vers d’autres devises ou monnaies numériques. Un tel mouvement fragiliserait le dollar. Il deviendrait alors aussi un problème américain.

The Conversation

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ref. Les pressions de Donald Trump sur la Fed annoncent-elles la fin du dollar ? – https://theconversation.com/les-pressions-de-donald-trump-sur-la-fed-annoncent-elles-la-fin-du-dollar-265784