Why Trump’s $2 billion buyoff to cancel offshore wind farms is a bad deal for American taxpayers and the US energy supply

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Christopher Niezrecki, Director of the Center for Energy Innovation, UMass Lowell

Wind farm construction means jobs and locally produced power. AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

The U.S. is in a bizarre situation in 2026: It’s facing a looming energy shortage, yet the Trump administration is making deals to pay offshore wind developers nearly US$2 billion in taxpayer money to walk away from energy projects.

These politically motivated moves are costing Americans far more than just the buyouts.

Communities have been laying the groundwork for offshore energy projects for years. Offshore wind development brings jobs and economic development that reshape regional economies, with the scale of public and private investment reaching into the hundreds of billions of dollars over years. East Coast communities have built up ports to support the industry and launched job-training programs to prepare workers. Construction, maintenance and shipping businesses have sprung up, along with secondary businesses that support the industry.

An aerial view of a port showing the towers of future wind turbines and blades in a rack on a ship nearby.
Offshore wind farms bring jobs and economic development. State Pier in New London, Conn., serves as a staging site for wind farm construction and supplies.
AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey

Losing the projects, and the threat of losing other planned wind farms, will also likely mean higher energy prices. And while some offshore wind farms are moving ahead, developers must account for both lost momentum and increased uncertainty from the Trump administration.

As a result, Americans will bear the economic brunt of these decisions for decades ahead.

How America got to this point

To understand how the U.S. arrived in this predicament, let’s take a step back.

In March 2023, leaders from three U.S. federal agencies under the Biden administration met with the CEOs from American technology and manufacturing giants Microsoft, Amazon, Ford, GM, Dow Chemical and GE at the annual ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit, under the banner of “Affordable, Reliable and Secure American-Made Energy”.

They agreed on a key point: The nation was staring down a severe shortage of electrons to drive American business forward.

Fortunately, solutions abounded. Enormous amounts of onshore wind and solar power had been deployed during the previous five years. More than 80% of all new power additions to the U.S. grid had come from these two sources.

Particularly exciting were plans to build large offshore wind farms up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Taken together, the wind farms would generate 30 gigawatts of new power by 2030, enough to power more than 10 million homes and reduce volatility in energy pricing thanks to long-term power purchase agreements.

The U.S. had one small wind farm at the time, off Rhode Island, and two wind turbines off Virginia, but Europe had been operating large offshore wind projects for over two decades and was building more.

In the months following the 2023 meeting, leasing and permitting for the U.S. mega projects continued, and in some areas construction got underway.

A map showing many U.S. wind farm lease areas along the East Coast.
A map of offshore wind lease areas shows how many companies have paid the U.S. to lease areas of ocean for offshore wind farms. A few wind farms off New England are already operating. The lease areas where the Trump administration used taxpayer money to persuade companies to drop their wind farm plans include two TotalEnergies leases – Attentive Energy, off New Jersey, and a lease area off South Carolina – and Bluepoint Wind, also off New Jersey.
U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

Then, the Trump administration arrived in 2025. As president, Donald Trump immediately issued an executive order to halt offshore wind lease sales and any approvals, permits or loans for wind farms. He had made his disdain for wind power clear ever since he lost a fight to stop construction of a small wind farm near his golf course in Scotland in the 2010s.

After a federal judge declared Trump’s executive order unconstitutional in December 2025, the administration shifted strategies.

In March 2026, news outlets began reporting on deals struck in which the federal government would pay three offshore wind project developers hundreds of millions of dollars to cease development of their permitted projects, agree not to build others and repurpose the funds toward fossil fuel projects.

According to reported discussions involving the French energy company TotalEnergies, the money would be paid out through the Department of Interior’s Judgment Fund, intended for payment of legal settlements, despite there not being any active litigation with TotalEnergies.

The other projects agreeing to Trump’s buyouts as of early May were Golden State Wind, in California, and Bluepoint Wind, off New Jersey and New York. Both are co-owned by Ocean Winds, a joint venture of the French energy company Engie and EDP Renewables, headquartered in Spain. The California Energy Commission and members of Congress are now investigating the moves.

Offshore wind means local investment

Regardless of whether these buyouts are even legal, the losing parties will be the American taxpayers and a U.S. economy that needs more electrons on the grid, not fewer.

One analysis projected that deploying 40 GW along the U.S. East Coast by 2035 would generate roughly $140 billion in investment, much of it concentrated in port infrastructure and supply chain development.

New York in early 2026 announced a $300 million state grant program to expand port infrastructure supporting offshore wind. And the New Jersey Wind Port represents an investment exceeding $600 million to enable manufacturing and assembly of turbines.

Two workers stand on a dock as wind turbine blades are loaded on a ship with a crane.
Workers in New London, Conn., prepare a generator and its blades for transport to South Fork Wind’s offshore wind farm in 2023. To build an offshore wind farm requires manufacturing jobs, parts suppliers, dockworkers, crane operators, ship crews, as well as the wind farm construction crews and maintenance teams and many more businesses and their employees.
AP Photo/Seth Wenig

In 2025, California state lawmakers authorized $225.7 million in spending for offshore wind ports and related facilities.

For these projects to pay off for local communities, however, the regions will need to see the development of wind farms.

Killing jobs

The cancellations of the planned projects also take jobs away from hard-working, blue-collar Americans.

The construction and installation of offshore wind turbines requires the expertise of skilled electrical workers, pipe fitters, welders, pile drivers, iron workers, machinists and carpenters.

Future offshore wind costs depend on investments today. As infrastructure is established and expertise grows, each subsequent project becomes easier to build, less risky and less expensive.

This pattern is already evident globally: The levelized cost of electricity from offshore wind globally fell by 62% between 2010 and 2024.

Canceling projects or buying back leases eliminates the electricity those projects would have generated. It also slows the accumulation of experience, scale and supply chain maturity that drive costs down over time.

The result is higher costs for future projects and for electricity ratepayers.

An energy crisis

Developing a robust offshore wind industry provides resilience in the face of an unstable global energy market.

Future U.S. and global energy demand is projected to grow significantly, largely driven by the rapid expansion of AI data centers and electrification of vehicles, homes and businesses.

Limiting the supply of homegrown energy will increase energy costs for Americans, especially in the regions where the wind farms were supposed to be located – New York, New Jersey, North Carolina and California.

With the federal buyouts, the U.S. is losing 8 GW of planned electricity generation, enough to power more than 3 million homes. That generation needs to be replaced by other energy sources and expanding power transmission lines that can take seven to 10 years to get permits for and build out. The leased projects were on their way to providing new clean power generation fairly quickly. Eliminating them restarts the project clock.

Reliance on dirtier, conventional forms of power generation will increase along with foreign energy imports, such as electricity delivered from Canada to New York, leading to higher and more volatile electricity prices.

Evidence from Europe shows that offshore wind can also reduce electricity costs for consumers by lowering wholesale prices and reducing dependence on fossil fuels and their volatile prices.

Vineyard Wind I, an offshore wind farm completed in 2026, with 806 MW of generation – enough to power about 400,000 homes – is projected to save Massachusetts customers about $1.4 billion on electricity bills over the next 20 years. With a fixed-price, 20-year contract, the project also lowered prices during cold snaps and peak demand for gas, reducing volatility and cost.

From jobs to local economic development to power costs, we believe canceling these offshore wind projects is a bad deal for American taxpayers.

The Conversation

Christopher Niezrecki receives funding from from the National Science Foundation, Office of Naval Research, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, ARROW Center, and several companies that support the WindSTAR Industry-University Cooperative Research Center.

Ben Link serves on the Maryland Clean Energy Center Board of Directors.

Zoe Getman-Pickering receives funding from The Massachusetts Clean Energy Center and Maryland Energy Administration. She is affiliated with ARROW based at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. ARROW is a member of NE4Wind and sits on the advisory board for The Pacific Offshore Wind Consortium.

ref. Why Trump’s $2 billion buyoff to cancel offshore wind farms is a bad deal for American taxpayers and the US energy supply – https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-2-billion-buyoff-to-cancel-offshore-wind-farms-is-a-bad-deal-for-american-taxpayers-and-the-us-energy-supply-282456

Black, Hispanic, female and low-income elementary students are less likely to be identified with autism

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Paul L. Morgan, Director, Institute for Social and Health Equity, University at Albany, State University of New York

Understanding whether different groups of kids are more likely to be identified as having autism can help ensure that all students have equal access to the appropriate services at school. Adrian Vidal/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Students who are Black, Hispanic, female, from low-income families or multilingual learners are less likely to be identified with autism in U.S. elementary schools than their white, male, higher-income or English-speaking peers. This finding comes from our new research, published in April 2026 in the academic journal Autism.

These disparities appear even among students who have similar levels of academic achievement and who are attending the same schools.

Our research shows there are big and recurring gaps in whether students are identified with having autism while they attend U.S. elementary schools. In both 2003 and 2019, for example, fourth grade female students were about 80% less likely to be identified with autism, as compared to similarly situated boys.

We found that for every 10 boys identified with autism, only about two girls in a comparable situation – including those displaying similar levels of reading achievement and attending the same schools – were identified.

We analyzed data repeatedly collected from 2003 to 2022, using large, nationally representative samples of about 160,000 fourth grade students participating in the National Assessment of Educational Progress.

We specifically looked at data that included student academic achievement. This approach let us consider potential bias in how a student’s disability is identified.

Why it matters

Understanding these disparities in U.S. elementary schools is important to help ensure that all students with disabilities have equal access to appropriate services and supports.

Schools are one of the most common places that provide disability services to children and adolescents. This includes students who have autism.

Some research finds that teachers are more understanding of a student’s classroom struggles when informed that the student has autism.

School-based special education services, such as speech therapy, often benefit students with disabilities, including those of color. Student will not receive these services without an identified disabilty.

For example, recent analyses of public data from Massachusetts, Indiana and Connecticut compared the achievement trajectories of the same students before and after they received special education services. The students did better in both reading and mathematics when they received special education services.

Students with disabilities are also more likely to graduate from high school and attend college if they receive special education services.

A graphic shows a montage of puzzle pieces and children playing, with the word 'autism' written near the children.
Children with autism who are identified and receive supportive services at school are more likely to do well academically.
DrAfter123/iStock Illustrations

What still isn’t known

We do not know whether these disparities in autism identification are occurring in other elementary grades, at least based on the National Assessment of Educational Progress data.

In another of our recent analyses, though, we did observed racial disparities in autism identification across elementary grades.

Some other research suggests that students of color and girls experience significant delays in receiving autism diagnoses.

Our analysis is based on students who completed the National Assessment of Educational Progress reading test. Students with severe autism and higher support needs who were unable to complete these assessments, even with accommodations, were not included in our analysis.

Future studies could examine whether sociodemographic disparities in autism identification are occurring in U.S. middle and high schools as well for students with significant impairments.

What’s next

Our additional preliminary analysis indicates there are other types of disparities at play. For example, we are finding that Black and Hispanic girls, low-income Black students and multilingual learners who are white or Hispanic are especially unlikely to be identified as having autism.

We are also exploring whether some of these disparities have grown, or otherwise changed, following recent increases in autism prevalence rates, including for students of color and girls.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

The Conversation

Paul L. Morgan received funding from the U.S. Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences to support these analyses. Opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the view of the U.S. Department of Education.

ref. Black, Hispanic, female and low-income elementary students are less likely to be identified with autism – https://theconversation.com/black-hispanic-female-and-low-income-elementary-students-are-less-likely-to-be-identified-with-autism-281469

Teens aren’t as disengaged as you may think: What adults get wrong about adolescents’ civic contributions

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Kimia Shirzad, Associate Researcher and Adjunct Instructor in Recreation, Park and Tourism Management, Penn State

Teens contribute in ways that go far beyond organized volunteering. Maskot/DigitalVision via Getty Images

A teenager scrolls through their phone at the dinner table, barely looks up and answers questions with one-word replies. For many adults, that image has come to stand for a larger fear: that today’s young people are disconnected from others and may be uninterested in the world around them. Concerns about declining civic participation often deepen that worry.

As researchers who study adolescent development, we believe this picture is incomplete. Adults help shape the environments in which young people learn to contribute, or learn not to. In worrying that young people are disengaged from participating in civic society, adults may overlook both their own role in fostering engagement and the many ways young people are already contributing.

Youth civic and community engagement matters because it helps build skills, relationships and habits of participation that carry into adulthood. How do teens actually express their care for the world around them, and what helps them to do so?

What does engagement really look like?

When adults talk about “engaged” teens, they often picture a narrow set of activities: volunteering, joining clubs, leading student government, maybe attending a rally or organizing a fundraiser. Those forms of contribution to society matter. But they are not the whole story.

In two recent studies, we surveyed 723 American adolescents, with an average age of 15, to understand what predicts whether teens will contribute to society and what their contribution looks like.

In the first study, we identified four distinct patterns: Some teens were generally less engaged; this group represented 21% of our sample. Another 19% we called “Digital Advocates,” highly active online but less involved in face-to-face settings. A third group, 33% of our sample, we termed “Local Helpers,” more engaged in interpersonal and community-based helping. “Contributors” were our fourth profile type, making up 26% of our sample; they reported high engagement across all domains.

Our finding pushes back against a common adult assumption that “real” engagement has to look a certain way. It doesn’t. A teen sharing information online about where local families can access food assistance and a teen quietly checking in on a struggling friend are both contributing – just differently. Digital participation is not automatically shallow; for many young people, online spaces are where they learn about issues, form opinions and connect with others who share their concerns.

Crucially, these profiles were shaped less by demographics – age, gender or race and ethnicity – and more by whether our teen respondents had the personal and contextual supports that helped them act on what they cared about.

What supports adolescent contribution?

In our second study, we found that more-engaged young people reported higher levels of hope, purpose and critical consciousness, which together help explain why some adolescents are more likely to act on what they care about. Hope is the sense that the future can be better and that you can help make it better. Purpose is a stable sense of direction. Critical consciousness is a teen’s ability to notice and think critically about the social dynamics around them.

We were especially interested to see that purpose mattered not only when it was self-focused – wanting to succeed, build a career and so on – but also when it extended beyond the self, such as wanting to help others or contribute to something larger than one’s own interests.

That may sound obvious, but it has real implications. Adults often tell teens to “get involved” without helping them connect that involvement to a meaningful why. Our findings suggest young people are more likely to contribute when they feel hopeful about the future and when they see their lives as connected to others.

What adults can do

To help young people make a difference, first broaden your definition of contribution. The teenager organizing a school drive, the one helping a neighbor and the one making informative videos about a community issue are all contributing in real ways. Notice these efforts and support them in their chosen contribution.

You can also support adolescents in building the traits that make it easier for them to get involved and make a difference:

  • Help young people develop a sense of purpose that goes beyond themselves. Ask questions like: What do you care about? What kind of difference do you want to make? Purpose-driven engagement tends to be more durable than participation that’s driven by obligation.

  • Nurture hope. Young people are less likely to act when they feel that nothing will change. Adults can support hope by helping teens see realistic pathways for success and giving them opportunities to speak up or solve real problems in their schools and communities.

  • Make space for critical consciousness. After-school programs, classrooms and youth groups can create environments where conversations about social issues are taken seriously and connected to real action. Young people need chances to talk about the world they see – and the world they want.

Teens often make a difference in ways that reflect both what they care about and how they are beginning to understand the world around them. Contributing is about more than just involvement in civic institutions; it can also look like helping a neighbor, speaking up for others or creating social media content that raises awareness about an issue. Instead of expecting teens to be checked out, caring adults can help them develop the skills and resources to contribute in any and all of these meaningful ways.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Teens aren’t as disengaged as you may think: What adults get wrong about adolescents’ civic contributions – https://theconversation.com/teens-arent-as-disengaged-as-you-may-think-what-adults-get-wrong-about-adolescents-civic-contributions-280786

People with premenstrual dysphoric disorder have higher rates of suicidal thinking, planning and attempts

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Eliza Zhitnik, PhD Student in Health Policy and Management, UMass Amherst

Premenstrual dysphoric disorder is a severe form of premenstrual syndrome. SimpleImages/Moment via Getty Images

People with premenstrual dysphoric disorder – a more serious form of premenstrual syndrome, commonly known as PMS – are more likely to experience suicidal thoughts and behaviors than people without it.

That is a key finding of our recent systematic review, published in the journal Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research.

We searched for information on suicidality – meaning the risk of suicide and encompassing a spectrum of thoughts, plans and behaviors intended to end one’s life – in people with this disorder. We found 18 studies, which spanned more than 2 million people who menstruate.

The likelihood of experiencing suicidal thoughts and behaviors in people with the disorder varied depending on the study and the way the participants were identified, but in general these thoughts and behaviors were relatively common.

In a study in adolescents with premenstrual dysphoric disorder, or PMDD, almost one-third of participants reported suicidal thoughts or behaviors. Similarly, in a study in adult women with the condition, a quarter of respondents reported thinking about, considering or planning suicide. Rates were high in women who lived with PMDD alongside other mood disorders, such as depression.

Why it matters

PMDD is a long-term condition, officially recognized in 2013, that may affect up to 6% of people who have periods. It has long been considered a severe form of PMS but differs because it causes serious mood and emotional problems and is a chronic, lifelong condition.

To be diagnosed, a person must meet strict criteria, which can make it harder for some people to get the right diagnosis. A formal diagnosis requires that people track their symptoms and rate them against specific criteria over at least two menstrual cycles. Our new finding – that people with the disorder may have a higher risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviors compared with those without it – shows how important it is to identify and treat this condition without delay.

Researchers do not yet understand the exact causes of PMDD.

In the studies we reviewed, we found that reported rates of suicidal thoughts and behaviors varied a lot – from as low as 0.011% in a large group of people with premenstrual disorders to as high as 86% in a worldwide group of patients with confirmed PMDD.

This wide range suggests that the results depend heavily on how the studies were done, who was included and how the disorder was defined and measured. When in the menstrual cycle people were evaluated might also affect this, as research shows that suicidal thoughts and behaviors are strongly linked to hormonal changes during the menstrual cycle.

What still isn’t known

A great deal more research is needed to understand how suicide risk can change during the menstrual cycle.

Though we didn’t find any studies that tested treatments to address suicidal thoughts and behaviors in people with PMDD, there are evidence-based treatments for PMDD that can improve well-being, including antidepressants, hormonal contraceptives, hormone-blocking agents, cognitive behavioral therapy and lifestyle changes, such as dietary changes and exercise.

For people living with PMDD and their caregivers, seeking support is essential. For clinicians, learning to recognize and treat PMDD is a priority.

If you or someone you know is in crisis and are based in the U.S., call the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline to speak with a trained listener, or text HELLO to 741741. Both services are free, available 24/7 and confidential. If you are a reader from outside the U.S., please use a helpline like the one above (for a list of resources in other countries, see here) or speak to a healthcare professional.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. People with premenstrual dysphoric disorder have higher rates of suicidal thinking, planning and attempts – https://theconversation.com/people-with-premenstrual-dysphoric-disorder-have-higher-rates-of-suicidal-thinking-planning-and-attempts-280895

How Pennsylvania’s new paid leave bill leaves the sandwich generation behind

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kate Perepezko, Research Scientist, Miami University

Approximately 63 million Americans are family caregivers. Jub Rubjob/Moment Collection via Getty Images

The number of family caregivers has grown from 53 million Americans in 2020 to 63 million as of 2025. This number is expected to increase as the baby boomer generation ages and faces the limitations of our current health and social services systems.

A family caregiver is an unpaid individual who provides assistance to a family member who needs support due to illness, disability or aging.

The population of metro Pittsburgh is one of the oldest in the country, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. This means an increasing proportion of the local population will require care from family caregivers as they age. In Allegheny County, the number of residents age 65 and older is projected to grow by 50,000 by 2050.

Despite their critical role in supporting the aging population, however, family caregivers are not often provided with medical training or help with navigating the health and social services systems. This puts them at significant risk of experiencing physical and mental strain that can lead to burnout and leaving the workforce before retirement age. Caregivers and those they support can also develop health complications based on these factors.

This is particularly true for women, who provide a disproportionate amount of care in the U.S.

I study ways to improve the quality of life for aging adults and their care partners. My work centers on how family caregiving can improve mental health for families. I also examine the toll that caregiving takes on families navigating serious illness and decline.

Sandwich generation caregivers

The “sandwich generation” refers to adults – typically in their 40s and 50s – who are simultaneously caring for their aging parents while raising their own children. They are “sandwiched” between two generations of dependents and often face significant financial and emotional pressures as a result.

A woman wearing glasses stands at a podium.
Pennsylvania is currently debating paid leave legislation through the Family Care Act, proposed by Democratic Rep. Jennifer O’Mara.
Rep. Jennifer O’Mara/Instagram

These caregivers often find themselves caught between work and unpredictable caregiving demands. Without formal protections like paid leave, they may feel forced to reduce hours, turn down promotions or leave the workforce altogether. These decisions can add to the financial strain they’re already under.

Where the law falls short

Several national and state programs exist to support older adults.

The federal Older Americans Act funds services like meal delivery, transportation and caregiver support, and Medicaid Home and Community-Based Services helps older adults receive care at home rather than in a facility. But systemic barriers – from eligibility gaps to access issues – limit their reach.

Federal initiatives like the RAISE Family Caregivers Act offer some hope for family caregivers. It outlines specific actions the government can take to help caregivers, including making it easier for them to balance caregiving with their jobs.

In addition, several states have implemented paid family leave policies. California, for example, offers up to eight weeks of paid family caregiving leave – replacing up to 90% of wages for lower earners. Washington and Massachusetts both provide up to 12 weeks, with wage replacement rates of 90% and 80%, respectively, and include job protection so caregivers don’t have to choose between their loved one and their livelihood.

Pennsylvania may be next. Legislators are currently debating the Family Care Act, paid leave legislation proposed by state Rep. Jennifer O’Mara. The bill, approved by the Pennsylvania House in March 2026, would allow employees to take up to 12 paid weeks off after the birth of a child or to care for a family member during a serious illness. Spotlight PA reports that the House-approved bill proposes employers cover the cost, with grants available for small businesses.

The state Senate’s version of the Family Care Act, pending in the Labor & Industry Committee as of May 2026, would fund benefits through employee payroll deductions of up to 1% of their income. This addresses a critical gap in existing federal law, which guarantees only unpaid leave.

Even if passed and signed into law, the proposal may fall short for sandwich generation caregivers, who face simultaneous, overlapping demands on both ends of the age spectrum. Many of these caregivers have already reduced hours or left the workforce entirely. A benefit tied to employment may never reach the people who need it most.

Pittsburgh’s generational tug-of-war

Pittsburgh-based sandwich generation caregivers face competing demands: securing reliable, affordable childcare – a growing problem in Allegheny County driven by staffing shortages and limited spots – while simultaneously managing eldercare responsibilities. Without a state or federal paid leave mandate, many Pittsburgh workers, like those in lower-wage or part-time roles, have no guaranteed access to the time off they might need to meet either obligation.

Paid leave policies vary by employer, and without a universal federal mandate, coverage is uneven – often weakest for lower-wage workers, part-time employees and people at small businesses.

Research has shown that sandwich generation caregivers already use most of their paid time off for caregiving tasks. This means they have limited time to take care of their own health. The proposed Family Care Act caps paid leave at 12 weeks per year. While this is an improvement from having no mandatory paid leave, it’s designed to supplement – not replace – standard sick days. The Family Care Act would cover intermittent leave for singular events, like childbirth or surgery. But sandwich generation caregiving is chronic, overlapping and resource-intensive in ways the bill isn’t designed to address.

A historic-looking building behind a sign that says
The Pennsylvania paid leave bill would give workers paid leave for up to 12 weeks.
arlutz73/iStock collection via Getty Images Plus

In addition, the act proposes a partial wage replacement – 90% of wages for a weekly benefit cap ranging from $573 to $995 per week, depending on the individual’s earnings.

Caregivers who step back from work to care for a child or an aging parent are disproportionately lower- and middle-income workers. A 90% wage replacement rate at a lower-wage tier means those workers don’t have to choose between a paycheck and showing up for their family.

Yet this coverage is still likely insufficient for caregivers who often face significant financial strain related to caregiving, such as out-of-pocket expenses for care.

While the Family Care Act – whether it is funded through employee and employer payroll contributions – is a step forward, it still falls short for sandwich generation caregivers. What this population needs is the ability to take flexible time off as needs arise, not just in one block. However, intermittent leave presents administrative challenges for employers, like scheduling disruptions and paperwork burdens that could make it harder to put into practice.

The Conversation

Kate Perepezko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How Pennsylvania’s new paid leave bill leaves the sandwich generation behind – https://theconversation.com/how-pennsylvanias-new-paid-leave-bill-leaves-the-sandwich-generation-behind-281273

Les groupes armés comblent un vide politique au Mali : il est essentiel d’y remédier pour mettre fin à la violence

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Norman Sempijja, Associate professor, Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique

Le Mali est en proie à des troubles politiques depuis 2012. Cette année-là a été marquée par un coup d’État militaire et la prise de contrôle des régions du nord de ce pays d’Afrique de l’Ouest par des groupes armés. Au cours des années qui ont suivi, les efforts visant à mettre en place des gouvernements de transition ont échoué. Cette situation a abouti à l’interdiction de tous les partis politiques en mai 2025.

De plus, le pays a connu des vagues d’interventions militaires menées par des acteurs extérieurs tels que la France, les États-Unis et, plus récemment, la Russie. Tous ont investi massivement pour tenter de contenir la menace extrémiste au Mali.

Mais les groupes liés à Al-Qaïda et à l’État islamique ont continué à étendre leur influence. Et fin avril 2026, le gouvernement militaire a été contraint de repousser des attaques coordonnées menées par des séparatistes et des djihadistes à travers tout le pays. Le ministre de la Défense, le général Sadio Camara, a été tué.

Au cours de la dernière décennie, les interventions étrangères ont souvent mal interprété ce qui se passait sur le terrain. Les groupes extrémistes ont tiré parti de problèmes tels que les conflits fonciers, la corruption et la concurrence pour les ressources afin de se légitimer, s’alignant souvent sur les tensions au sein de la communauté. La faiblesse des institutions étatiques et des forces de sécurité a permis à des groupes tels que le Groupe de soutien à l’islam et aux musulmans (JNIM) et l’État islamique au Grand Sahara (EIGS) de consolider leur pouvoir.

Ces groupes se sont adaptés en formant des alliances et en adaptant leurs discours aux revendications locales, donnant la priorité aux problèmes immédiats plutôt qu’aux objectifs idéologiques.

Nous sommes des politologues qui avons mené des recherches sur la situation sécuritaire au Mali et au Sahel. Notre article récemment publié a montré que les groupes armés non étatiques du Sahel, en particulier au Mali, sont devenus des acteurs clés du pouvoir. Ils influent sur la gouvernance locale en comblant les lacunes laissées par des institutions étatiques faibles.

Alors que des acteurs extérieurs tels que la France, les États-Unis et la Russie accordent la priorité à la lutte contre le terrorisme et à la consolidation de l’État, ils négligent souvent les fonctions de gouvernance que remplissent ces groupes armés non étatiques. Ces groupes fournissent souvent des services essentiels et acquièrent une légitimité locale.

Reconnaître le rôle des groupes armés en tant que détenteurs du pouvoir local ne signifie pas accepter ou légitimer leurs actions. Cependant, ignorer cette réalité a conduit à des politiques qui n’atteignent pas leur cible. Lorsque les interventions se concentrent uniquement sur des solutions militaires, elles risquent de passer à côté des raisons pour lesquelles les populations interagissent avec ces groupes.

Nos conclusions remettent en question les interventions conventionnelles qui se concentrent uniquement sur la défaite des groupes armés non étatiques ou le rétablissement d’un contrôle étatique centralisé. Nous soutenons que les solutions sécuritaires seules sont insuffisantes. Nous préconisons une approche plus nuancée qui intègre le potentiel des groupes armés non étatiques en matière de gouvernance, de légitimité et d’action locale. Des groupes armés non étatiques ont assuré la gouvernance de territoires dans des pays comme la Colombie, la Syrie et le Soudan du Sud, entre autres.

Les groupes armés en tant qu’autorités de facto

Au Mali, les groupes armés ne sont pas seulement des forces combattantes. Dans de nombreuses régions du pays, ils jouent un rôle plus complexe. Il est difficile d’estimer le nombre exact de groupes opérant au Mali. Le plus grand et le plus connu, le JNIM, est une coalition de cinq organisations et revendique plus de 10 000 combattants dans le pays.

Dans le centre et le nord du Mali, à la frontière avec l’Algérie, l’État est souvent distant, absent ou fait l’objet de méfiance. Les groupes armés comblent ce vide. Ils règlent les différends, font respecter les règles, perçoivent les impôts et assurent parfois un minimum d’ordre.

Pour les communautés vivant dans l’insécurité quotidienne, ces fonctions ne sont pas abstraites. Elles ont des effets concrets sur la vie quotidienne.

Notre étude a établi que cela ne signifie pas nécessairement que la population approuve ces groupes ou soutient leur idéologie. Beaucoup n’y adhèrent pas. Cependant, lorsqu’il y a peu d’alternatives, les gens s’adaptent. Ils suivent les règles parce qu’ils en ont besoin pour survivre, pas parce qu’ils y croient.

Cette distinction est importante. Elle aide à expliquer pourquoi ces groupes sont si difficiles à déloger. Leur force ne provient pas seulement des armes, mais aussi de leur ancrage profond dans les réalités locales.

Pourquoi les stratégies militaires échouent

Les efforts internationaux se sont largement concentrés sur la lutte contre ces groupes et la reconstruction de l’autorité de l’État malien. Bien qu’elles partent d’une bonne intention, ces interventions négligent souvent un élément essentiel : qu’advient-il des espaces laissés vacants par ces groupes ?

L’intervention française de 2013 en est un exemple. L’armée française a aidé l’armée malienne à reprendre le contrôle du nord du pays face à l’avancée des islamistes lors de l’opération Serval. L’objectif était d’empêcher les forces extrémistes d’avancer vers Bamako. Cela n’a pas mis fin au conflit. De nombreux combattants se sont déplacés vers des zones rurales où l’État était peu présent et ont tissé des liens avec les communautés locales.

Dans le centre du Mali, où l’élevage bovin est une source de revenus essentielle, cette dynamique a contribué à propager la violence entre les communautés peules et dogon, renforçant ainsi les griefs exploités par les groupes extrémistes.

Parallèlement, les tentatives de renforcement des institutions de l’État se sont heurtées à des difficultés. Dans certaines régions, les forces de sécurité sont perçues comme inefficaces, voire abusives.

Face à cette réalité, les populations se tournent souvent vers tous ceux qui sont capables de leur offrir un certain niveau de prévisibilité et de protection, même s’il s’agit d’un groupe armé.

L’implication des acteurs extérieurs s’est également fragmentée progressivement. Le retrait de la France, la montée du sentiment anti-occidental et l’arrivée de forces liées à la Russie ont créé un paysage d’interventions encombré et parfois conflictuel.

Les différents acteurs ont des agendas divergents, et leur présence ne se traduit pas toujours par une sécurité accrue. Dans certains cas, elle peut même aggraver la situation en renforçant les tensions ou en affaiblissant la confiance dans des institutions déjà fragiles.

Pris entre deux feux, les civils font quotidiennement des choix difficiles. Leurs décisions sont rarement idéologiques, mais plutôt dictées par la survie.

Repenser la réponse

Nous concluons de nos constatations qu’une approche plus réaliste commencerait par une écoute des réalités locales. Elle s’attaquerait aux lacunes qui permettent aux groupes armés de s’implanter. Cela implique d’améliorer l’accès à la justice et à la sécurité, de soutenir les institutions locales et de prendre au sérieux les griefs. Cela signifie également reconnaître que la légitimité se construit à partir de la base, et non d’imposé d’en haut.

L’expérience du Mali montre qu’il y a des limites claires à ce que la force militaire peut accomplir à elle seule. Tant que les interventions négligeront les réalités quotidiennes de la gouvernance et de la survie, elles auront peu de chances d’apporter un changement durable. Tant que ce changement ne se produira pas, les groupes armés resteront difficiles à déloger, non seulement parce qu’ils sont capables de se battre, mais aussi parce que, dans de nombreuses zones, ils font désormais partie intégrante de ceux qui organisent la vie quotidienne.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Les groupes armés comblent un vide politique au Mali : il est essentiel d’y remédier pour mettre fin à la violence – https://theconversation.com/les-groupes-armes-comblent-un-vide-politique-au-mali-il-est-essentiel-dy-remedier-pour-mettre-fin-a-la-violence-281885

Sept penseurs francophones pour comprendre la condition intellectuelle contemporaine

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Christophe Premat, Professor, Canadian and Cultural Studies, Stockholm University

Qu’est-ce qu’être intellectuel aujourd’hui depuis l’Afrique ou ses diasporas, sinon occuper une position instable, prise entre héritages coloniaux, contraintes globales et luttes pour une autonomie critique, au prix fréquent d’une marginalisation sociale ?

Comme le montre l’ouvrage Sensibilités intellectuelles africaines, auquel j’ai contribué, l’intellectualité africaine ne peut être comprise sans prendre en compte les formes sensibles, éthiques et cognitives par lesquelles les penseurs habitent leur époque. L’intellectuel n’est pas seulement producteur de savoir, il est un sujet situé, traversé par des contradictions, engagé dans un monde qu’il contribue à transformer.


Sortir de l’« intellectuel exotique »

  • Penser la rupture critique – Jean-Godefroy Bidima

La philosophie de Bidima ouvre sur une autre manière de penser, plus relationnelle, plus située, attentive aux formes concrètes de production du sens. Elle s’enracine dans une revalorisation d’une éthique de la palabre.

Loin d’une vision folklorisante, la palabre est chez Bidima une véritable figure philosophique du débat et du jugement. Elle désigne un espace de parole où la vérité ne se décrète pas, mais se construit collectivement, dans la confrontation des points de vue, dans la temporalité longue de l’échange, dans l’attention aux voix multiples.

La palabre est ainsi une pratique épistémique et politique mettant en jeu une rationalité qui ne se réduit pas à l’argument abstrait, mais qui intègre les affects, les expériences, les positions sociales. Elle permet de penser autrement la délibération, en dehors des modèles strictement occidentaux de la raison discursive, tout en évitant toute idéalisation naïve.

Dans cette perspective, l’intellectuel n’est plus celui qui parle de manière surplombante, mais celui qui participe à des dispositifs de co-élaboration du sens. Il doit apprendre à écouter, à se décentrer, à inscrire sa parole dans un tissu relationnel.

Seloua Luste Boulbina radicalise cette exigence en montrant que la colonisation a produit une infrastructure mentale durable. Dans la perspective de Boulbina, penser ne consiste jamais à habiter une langue comme un sol stable, mais à se tenir dans l’écart entre les langues, là où les concepts vacillent et où leur prétendue universalité se fissure.

Sa philosophie relève ainsi d’une déconstruction active : penser “entre les langues”, c’est dès lors assumer une position de discontinuité, de déplacement et d’hybridité, où aucune appartenance linguistique ou conceptuelle ne peut être tenue pour évidente.

Avec Diagne, la sortie de l’aliénation ne passe ni par le rejet ni par la pure déconstruction, mais par la traduction. Celle-ci est pensée comme une opération philosophique majeure : traduire, c’est faire circuler les idées, mais aussi les transformer.

Il défend une conception relationnelle du savoir, où les traditions philosophiques ne sont pas closes, mais en dialogue. L’Afrique n’est pas en périphérie : elle participe activement à la reconfiguration des savoirs. Dans cette optique, l’intellectuel devient un passeur, capable de naviguer entre plusieurs univers linguistiques et conceptuels.

L’intellectuel face au pouvoir : entre critique et marginalité

La pensée de Mbembe s’ancre dans une interrogation radicale sur les formes historiques de la violence. Esclavage, colonisation, postcolonie : ces expériences ne sont pas seulement des événements passés, mais des structures qui continuent d’informer le présent.

Le concept de postcolonie occupe ici une place centrale. Il ne désigne pas simplement la période qui suit les indépendances, mais un régime de pouvoir spécifique, caractérisé par l’imbrication du passé colonial et des formes contemporaines de domination. La postcolonie est un espace où s’entrelacent continuités et transformations. Les logiques de commandement, de violence et de dépendance héritées de la colonisation y sont reconfigurées plutôt que dépassées. Mbembe insiste notamment sur la dimension quotidienne et diffuse du pouvoir postcolonial. Celui-ci ne s’exerce pas seulement de manière coercitive, mais aussi à travers des formes de complicité, de théâtralisation et d’intériorisation.

Le pouvoir et les sujets qu’il gouverne sont pris dans une relation ambivalente, faite à la fois de soumission, de détournement et de participation. Cette ambivalence produit une condition marquée par ce que Mbembe décrit comme une « convivialité » paradoxale avec le pouvoir, où domination et adhésion coexistent.

La postcolonie est ainsi un espace où le politique se mêle à l’affectif, au symbolique, au corporel, produisant une expérience du monde marquée par l’excès, la précarité et l’incertitude. L’intellectuel, chez Mbembe, est celui qui affronte cette configuration complexe. Il travaille à partir d’un monde marqué par ce qu’il appelle une « grande nuit », c’est-à-dire une histoire dense de dépossession et de violence, mais aussi de résistances et de réinventions.

Avec Jean-Marc Ela, la réflexion sur l’intellectuel s’ancre dans une exigence théologique et politique forte : penser à partir du vécu concret des populations, en particulier des mondes ruraux africains longtemps marginalisés par les savoirs dominants.

Sa théologie, proche de la théologie de la libération, rompt avec une approche abstraite et désincarnée du religieux comme du savoir. Elle affirme au contraire que toute pensée authentique doit émerger des conditions réelles d’existence, des expériences de précarité, des luttes pour la dignité et des formes ordinaires de résistance.

Critiquer le développement comme injonction

  • Dénoncer l’injonction au développement – Aminata Traoré

Aminata Traoré propose une critique frontale du discours du développement, qu’elle analyse comme une nouvelle forme de domination. Les politiques économiques globales imposent des normes qui dépossèdent les sociétés de leur capacité d’autodéfinition. Le développement devient une injonction, un cadre contraignant qui reproduit des dépendances.

Son travail met en évidence la dimension politique, culturelle et symbolique de ces processus. L’intellectuel est ici une figure de résistance, qui travaille à restaurer des marges d’autonomie et à redonner sens à la notion de souveraineté. Cette critique s’inscrit pleinement dans les analyses du livre sur la marginalisation structurelle de l’Afrique dans les dynamiques globales.

Pour une habitation poétique du monde

  • Habiter le déphasage – Felwine Sarr

Chez Felwine Sarr, l’intellectuel se caractérise par un décalage avec son environnement. Ce déphasage tient à une lucidité particulière qui lui fait percevoir les contradictions et les non-dits du monde. Une telle perception rend difficile toute adhésion simple et installe une tension intérieure. Cette tension n’est pas seulement inconfortable, elle est aussi la condition d’une pensée critique exigeante.

Cependant, cette lucidité ne conduit pas uniquement à une forme de malaise. Elle ouvre un espace de création. L’intellectuel ne se limite pas à analyser ou à dénoncer, il imagine d’autres possibles et esquisse de nouveaux horizons. Sa clairvoyance devient alors une ressource qui permet de transformer la critique en invention.

Il en résulte une figure à la fois exposée et créatrice, dont la force tient précisément à cette capacité à faire de la lucidité un principe d’ouverture plutôt qu’un simple constat.

  • Une condition plus qu’une école

Ces penseurs ne forment pas une école au sens strict, mais donnent à voir une condition partagée. Ils tracent un espace de pensée où l’exigence intellectuelle naît du rapport concret au monde et d’un refus des solutions toutes faites. Leur diversité ne fragilise pas leur portée, elle en constitue la force, en montrant que la figure de l’intellectuel africain ne se laisse pas réduire à un modèle unique. Cette pluralité apparaît comme une manière d’habiter le réel plutôt que comme une doctrine à suivre. Elle engage aussi un rapport singulier à l’Afrique, non pas comme une essence figée ou un simple objet d’étude, mais comme un horizon de pensée.

The Conversation

Christophe Premat est directeur du Centre d’études canadiennes de l’Université de Stockholm et professeur en études culturelles francophones. Il a codirigé avec Buata B. Malela l’ouvrage Sensibilités intellectuelles africaines (éditions Hermann, 2025), consacré aux formes contemporaines de l’intellectualité africaine.

ref. Sept penseurs francophones pour comprendre la condition intellectuelle contemporaine – https://theconversation.com/sept-penseurs-francophones-pour-comprendre-la-condition-intellectuelle-contemporaine-281903

Ted Turner didn’t just revolutionize television − he changed the way we see our world

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael J. Socolow, Professor of Communication and Journalism, University of Maine

Ted Turner attends the CNN launch event in Atlanta, Ga., on June 1, 1980. Rick Diamond/Getty Images

Ted Turner, who died on April 6, 2026, was bright, shrewd and, most of all, lucky. The cable TV visionary proved to be in the right place, at the right time, to change television and video news forever.

Most of his big gambles, on things such as the MGM studio and library, which led to the creation of the Turner Classic Movies channel, paid off handsomely.

But Turner will be remembered mostly for the creation and development of the Cable News Network – CNN – which launched in 1980 and made our knowledge of distant events instantaneous and our world more comprehensible. In this sense, Turner’s legacy extends beyond television. He changed our conception not only of journalism but also of our world.

Turner’s obituaries note his record-setting philanthropy, his impressive conservation efforts and his campaign to make the world safer by securing post-Soviet Union era nuclear weaponry. Over the course of his 87 years, Turner proved an outstanding yachtsman, an active and involved sports team owner and a quotable maverick in the business world.

Yet as a scholar of broadcast history – and a former CNN employee – I think Turner’s ultimate legacy is a bit more atmospheric than measurable.

He changed the media ecology in profound and lasting ways. CNN’s arrival disrupted an established media environment, in which broadcast journalism routines and audience viewing habits had become standardized by the ABC, CBS and NBC TV networks.

The ramshackle early CNN, with its farcical “world headquarters” housed in a former Atlanta-area country club, was derided as the “Chicken Noodle Network” by veteran network journalists. But by the mid-1980s it had established profitability, and by 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Gulf War, it assumed a singular position in America’s – and the world’s – information environment.

CNN had matured to respectability, and Turner was recognized as a visionary by Time magazine, which named him 1991’s Man of the Year. His idea had blossomed into a new arena for global information sharing, and his cable network fully competed with the established broadcast channels on big stories throughout the 1990s.

Right place, right time, right team

Turner’s cable TV news revolution required significant collaboration. The fulfillment of his vision needed luck, inherited money, innovative new technologies, supportive partners and even federal regulatory intervention.

For example, had Newton Minow’s Federal Communications Commission not pushed Congress to pass the All-Channel Receiver Act of 1962, American TV manufacturers would likely never have placed the UHF dial on their sets. That UHF dial made additional local TV competition possible by allowing more stations to broadcast.

In 1970, Turner purchased UHF Channel 17 in Atlanta, which he named WTGC for “Turner Communications Group,” and UHF Channel 36 in Charlotte, North Carolina, which he named WRET for “Robert Edward Turner,” and began building his broadcasting empire.

By the mid-1970s, the cost of satellite distribution to cable system operators had decreased to such an extent that Turner realized – and seized – an opportunity to nationally distribute his local station. He worked with satellite and cable system operators, building early relationships that would prove beneficial to everyone in the cable industry as it developed over the 1980s and ’90s.

In 1979 and 1980, he used these relationships to build the first 24-hour TV network, but it was his internal hires that made the original channel function. To launch CNN, Turner hired veterans of the TV news business, including Robert Wussler, who had previously been president of CBS Sports and the CBS Television Network. And he hired Reese Schonfeld, who had previously founded the Independent Television News Association, a national syndicator of pooled local TV programming.

A man stands in a newsroom, arms folded.
Ted Turner in the newsroom of his Cable News Network in Atlanta in 1985.
AP Photo

It was Turner’s vision, investments and established partnerships that made CNN possible. But the creation of the network proved a team effort requiring managerial competence and veteran television production experience.

CNN’s success was never assured. The channel continually lost money in its initial years. But the idea of 24-hour TV news being delivered to paying subscribers, through their cable system operators, proved so valuable that as early as 1981, two CBS executives secretly jetted to Atlanta to meet with Turner and Wussler about purchasing the network.

“I’ll sell you CNN,” he told them. But the deal floundered when the CBS executives would not accept anything less than 51% ownership – and control – of the channel. “You want control? You don’t buy control of Ted Turner’s companies,” he explained. “Forty-nine percent or less.”

Only four years later, Turner would turn the tables and attempt to take over CBS.

Turner came very close to living long enough to see CBS and CNN under a single ownership. CBS’ parent company, Paramount Skydance, is closing in on the purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery, the corporation that owns CNN.

Yet today, these two once hugely profitable news operations have been subsumed within massive multinational corporations, with their legacy brand equity providing as much value to their ownership as their journalism. Turner had long bemoaned the managerial fate of his cable news channel, which he sold to Warner Bros. in 1996.

Success invites criticism, establishes a legacy

Turner is one of the few figures in American media history who left a clearly identifiable legacy. There was a media world that existed before CNN and the one that came after. CNN’s success gave rise to competitors such as MSNBC, Fox News and others.

These channels simultaneously differentiated themselves from CNN while constantly measuring themselves against their older rival. But Turner’s original vision was distinct from the panel programs and punditry that’s now replaced original reporting from around the world.

Four men dressed in suits stand in a newsroom.
President Bill Clinton tours CNN’s new studios in Atlanta with Ted Turner on May 3, 1994.
AP Photo/Dennis Cook

Turner wanted to own and operate a global news organization where the news would always be the star, and where, like the classic wire services, professional reporting would be instant and accurate. And he wanted to make a fortune while doing it.

When he finally succeeded, critics began to complain about what journalist and academic Tom Rosenstiel called “The Myth of CNN” in a cover story in The New Republic in 1994. Scholars bemoaned CNN for its privileging good visuals over context and depth. They argued that its foreign coverage failed to maintain sufficient independence from the U.S. government.

Dictators and terrorists around the world learned to exploit CNN to get their messages across to the American public. In this sense, CNN’s neutrality, once a source of respect and credibility, could also undermine it by making the channel easily exploitable.

Billions of people around the world now take for granted the profusion of news access to anywhere on earth, at any time of day or night. That world was unimaginable before Turner’s work to make CNN conceivable and then real.

His legacy is not simply a series of cable channels but an entirely new way of thinking about information retrieval and access. Think about that the next time you scroll past video clips from London, Tokyo, Beirut or Mexico City, or check out breaking news videos from Ukraine or Tehran. And thank Ted for making such a world possible.

The Conversation

Michael J. Socolow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Ted Turner didn’t just revolutionize television − he changed the way we see our world – https://theconversation.com/ted-turner-didnt-just-revolutionize-television-he-changed-the-way-we-see-our-world-282434

Yémen–Somalie : l’inquiétante coopération entre ennemis idéologiques menace le commerce mondial

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Brendon Novel, Candidat au doctorat en science politique, Université de Montréal

Dans une région stratégique pour le commerce mondial, des ennemis idéologiques pourraient aujourd’hui coopérer. Les insurgés houthistes du Yémen et le groupe somalien Al-Chabab, branche d’Al-Qaida la plus puissante au monde, échangeraient des ressources logistiques et militaires selon plusieurs rapports de l’ONU et du renseignement étatsunien, sans qu’il soit toutefois question d’une alliance formelle.


Ces échanges concernent notamment des technologies militaires, dont des drones, qui pourraient accroître la capacité d’Al-Chabab à opérer bien au-delà du territoire somalien, dans une zone déjà marquée par de fortes tensions sécuritaires.

Le mouvement Ansar Allah (dont les partisans sont les « Houthistes ») contrôle une partie du nord du Yémen et dispose de capacités militaires lui permettant de perturber la navigation en mer Rouge. Al-Chabab, de son côté, contrôle de larges portions du territoire somalien et mène une insurrection armée contre le gouvernement central.

Dans le cadre de mes recherches doctorales en science politique à l’Université de Montréal, j’ai été amené à m’intéresser aux questions de sécurité dans la Corne de l’Afrique, et plus largement dans le bassin de la mer Rouge, qui constitue l’une des principales routes du commerce mondial entre l’Asie et l’Europe via le canal de Suez.

Des liens opportunistes

Les premières mentions d’une coopération entre les deux groupes remontent à 2024. Le panel d’experts sur le Yémen de l’ONU est le premier à avoir alerté sur un trafic d’armes en expansion entre les côtes somaliennes et yéménites, toutes deux en proie à des conflits depuis 1991 et 2014 respectivement. Ce même panel s’est aussi inquiété d’une coopération croissante entre les deux organisations, tant sur le plan opérationnel que logistique.

Des cadres houthistes se seraient effectivement rendus en Somalie pour y établir des liens directs. Il est également probable que des connexions aient été établies par des individus extérieurs aux deux groupes, mais intégrés à des réseaux criminels qui leur sont liés. Des flux de contrebande de tout type — y compris d’armes — prospèrent en effet depuis longtemps le long des côtes de la Corne de l’Afrique et du Yémen.

À première vue, il peut paraître contre-intuitif que ces deux organisations coopèrent. Les Houthistes sont d’obédience chiite zaydite, alors qu’Al-Chabab s’inscrit dans un courant rigoriste de l’islam sunnite particulièrement anti-chiite.

L’existence d’intérêts matériels circonstanciels entre deux forces idéologiquement opposées n’a toutefois rien d’inédit. Le mouvement houthiste cherche à gagner en influence régionale et à diversifier ses sources de revenus, tandis qu’Al-Chabab vise à enrichir son arsenal militaire.




À lire aussi :
Le Somaliland, source de tensions dans la Corne de l’Afrique


Al-Chabab en quête de drones

Toujours selon l’ONU, des militants d’Al-Chabab auraient été formés au Yémen aux technologies de drone et à la fabrication d’engins explosifs sophistiqués. Par-là, Al-Chabab cherche à rendre ses assauts plus efficaces et meurtriers contre les forces gouvernementales somaliennes et leurs soutiens internationaux.

Ce faisant, les Houthistes auraient déjà fourni des drones armés aux militants somaliens qui leur ont également demandé des missiles guidés. Très utilisés au cours des attaques houthistes contre des navires en mer Rouge et dans le golfe d’Aden entre 2023 et 2025, ces équipements conféreraient à Al-Chabab une capacité de nuisance encore plus importante, en Somalie et au-delà.

Jusqu’à présent, l’organisation se sert de drones essentiellement pour des activités de surveillance et de renseignement. L’acquisition de drones offensifs donnerait à ses militants un levier de plus face à une armée somalienne déjà en grande difficulté.

Une expansion territoriale quasi continue

Depuis son émergence au milieu des années 2000, Al-Chabab s’est imposé comme la branche d’Al-Qaida la plus puissante au monde. L’organisation contrôle aujourd’hui de larges portions du territoire somalien, au centre et au sud du pays. Sa force repose d’abord sur les défaillances militaires, politiques et économiques du gouvernement somalien et de ses soutiens étrangers.

Al-Chabab prospère en effet sur l’échec du processus de reconstruction de l’État somalien selon un modèle fédéral. L’organisation exploite en particulier les rivalités — parfois violentes — entre l’armée fédérale et les forces régionales en quête d’autonomie. Ses militants profitent de ces dissensions, toujours plus importantes, alors que le pouvoir central à Mogadiscio, la capitale, s’efforce de centraliser le pouvoir et les ressources économiques du pays.

Comme l’armée somalienne, les forces internationales engagées à leur côté depuis le milieu des années 2000 — notamment celles de l’Union africaine — sont mises en difficulté par Al-Chabab.

Les États-Unis sont également en peine. En 2025, le nombre de frappes états-uniennes en Somalie n’a jamais été aussi important. Si elles ont permis d’affaiblir le groupe État islamique dans le nord du pays (aussi suspectées de liens avec les Houthistes), elles n’ont que peu affecté le contrôle territorial d’Al-Chabab.




À lire aussi :
La guerre en Éthiopie menace de déstabiliser toute la région



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Risques d’instabilité régionale accrue

Après l’opération Hilaac (« éclair »), menée avec le soutien de Washington contre l’État islamique dans la province autonomiste du Puntland au nord, une nouvelle opération, Onkod (« tonnerre »), se prépare contre Al-Chabab dans une région côtière à l’ouest du Puntland. Les militants de l’organisation y renforcent donc leurs positions. Leurs actions — pour l’instant limitées — pourraient alors déborder sur le golfe d’Aden qui voit passer près de 30 % du trafic mondial de conteneurs.

Entre 2023 et 2025 déjà, ce passage maritime a traversé une période de forte instabilité du fait des attaques houthistes en mer Rouge en soutien au peuple palestinien. Ces opérations ont mobilisé l’attention et les ressources des forces internationales présentes dans la région, contribuant à un regain des attaques de piraterie depuis les côtes somaliennes. Si ces attaques ont diminué aujourd’hui, un retour de l’instabilité n’est pas exclu.

Une présence d’Al-Chabab plus marquée dans le nord de la Somalie pourrait y contribuer. Dans le même temps, les Houthistes pourraient eux aussi participer à l’instabilité de cet espace maritime, dans un contexte de guerre ouverte entre l’Iran, les États-Unis et Israël depuis février. L’économie mondiale, déjà exposée aux perturbations du détroit d’Ormuz, en serait alors d’autant plus fragilisée.

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Brendon Novel ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Yémen–Somalie : l’inquiétante coopération entre ennemis idéologiques menace le commerce mondial – https://theconversation.com/yemen-somalie-linquietante-cooperation-entre-ennemis-ideologiques-menace-le-commerce-mondial-278176

Health authorities work to contain cruise ship hantavirus outbreak

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Daniel Pastula, Professor of Neurology, Medicine (Infectious Diseases), and Epidemiology, University of Colorado Anschutz

The cruise ship MV Hondius sits anchored off Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 5, 2026, before setting course for Spain on May 6. AFP via Getty Images

The MV Hondius, a Dutch cruise ship with a deadly outbreak of hantavirus, was on its way to the Canary Islands on May 7, 2026, after evacuating three ill passengers for treatment.

The World Health Organization confirmed the outbreak on May 4, noting a total of seven infections, with three deaths since the outbreak began in early April. An eighth case was confirmed on May 6.

Because of the illness’s one- to eight-week incubation period, additional cases may still be identified. Health officials around the world are monitoring passengers who disembarked from the ship in the early days of the outbreak in late April. Health officials emphasize, however, that the risk to the public from the outbreak is low.

I’m a medical epidemiologist – here’s what you need to know about the virus and how the outbreak is playing out.

What is hantavirus?

Hantavirus isn’t just one virus but a group of closely related viruses found throughout the world. Their natural reservoir is rodents, such as wild mice, rats and moles. Infected rodents don’t get symptoms, but the virus replicates in their cells. It sometimes spills over into other animals, including humans, and can cause severe disease and even death.

There are two general types of hantaviruses. Old World hantaviruses, typically found in Europe and Asia, generally affect the kidneys. Their mortality rate in people is 15% or less.

New World hantaviruses, such as the one causing the outbreak on the Hondius, occur in North and South America. The best-known strains of this type are the Andes virus, the strain that was confirmed in the cruise ship outbreak, and the Sin Nombre virus, which likely caused the death of Betsy Arakawa, Gene Hackman’s wife, in March 2025.

These viruses generally affect the lungs and are fatal in about 40% of cases. Symptoms start with a flu-like illness and can progress quickly to intense inflammation in the lungs that leads to lung and heart failure.

A person with a hantavirus infection may experience symptoms anywhere from a week to eight weeks after exposure. There is no treatment; doctors can offer only supportive care, such as hydration, artificial respiration or dialysis.

How do these viruses spread?

Cases of hantavirus infection are rare. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recorded 890 cases in the U.S. from 1993, when surveillance began, through the end of 2023.

The vast majority of cases occur in China, with thousands of cases caused by Old World hantavirus strains occurring annually.

Most often, people become infected with these viruses by inhaling aerosolized urine or droppings from infected rodents. Imagine a cabin infested with mice infected by the virus – sweeping the cabin would shake up dust from the mouse urine and droppings, distributing it through the air and enabling people to inhale the viral particles. There’s a smaller risk of getting ill through direct contact, such as by being bitten by an infected rodent or by touching its saliva.

Health officials are tracking people who left the ship before the outbreak was identified.

The worry on the cruise ship is human-to-human transmission. Epidemiologists had previously found hints that the Andes virus may be transmitted from one person to another under certain circumstances, such as close, sustained contact in close quarters, like a small cruise ship.

What do investigators think happened on the cruise ship?

The Hondius, now carrying close to 150 passengers, started out in Argentina on April 1 and was sailing north on a 33-day journey.

There were no reports of rodents on the ship, so it’s unlikely the illness started there. According to news reports, the people who first got sick had been touring Argentina and Chile for months beforehand. Researchers speculate they likely got infected during an activity in which they were exposed to a rodent carrying the disease or its excrement.

Given these viruses’ weekslong incubation period, these people may have been feeling fine when they boarded the ship, before eventually falling ill. They may have then spread Andes virus to others through breathing shared air or other close contact in close quarters.

What happens now?

The ship is now traveling to Spain, and multiple patients are being evacuated along the way.

Also, researchers are tracking 29 people who disembarked from the ship on April 24, before the outbreak was identified. People who had significant exposure will likely be quarantined to watch for symptoms and be isolated if symptoms develop.

Residents of three U.S. states are being monitored. Dutch officials announced on May 7 that a flight attendant who was not a passenger but briefly interacted with a passenger was hospitalized with possible hantavirus symptoms.

Is the situation dangerous?

Health officials can’t rule out that additional hantavirus cases may emerge in the cruise ship outbreak, but beyond the ship the risk remains low. That’s because most cases of hantavirus, including Andes virus, are acquired directly from rodents or their excrement and not from other humans.

It’s important to note, however, that even on vacation, people should pay attention to risks for infection – particularly as they may be very different from the ones they’re used to at home.

The Conversation

Daniel Pastula does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Health authorities work to contain cruise ship hantavirus outbreak – https://theconversation.com/health-authorities-work-to-contain-cruise-ship-hantavirus-outbreak-282343