Senegal’s credit rating: Moody’s latest downgrade was questionable – here’s why

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Misheck Mutize, Post Doctoral Researcher, Graduate School of Business (GSB), University of Cape Town

The decision by the rating agency Moody’s to downgrade Senegal’s sovereign credit rating in late October 2025 triggered an immediate week-long sell-off in Senegal’s Eurobonds. This was the third downgrade in one year. It left the country’s 16-year bond trading at a 40% discount to its face value. Meaning, for every one dollar denominated bond, it was being sold for 60c on the market.

Moody’s decision once again raised questions about the accuracy of decisions taken by the world’s three biggest rating agencies – Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s, and the Fitch – when it comes to African countries.

One of the main reasons for Moody’s downgrade was Senegal’s decision to turn to regional markets to raise capital. Since the start of 2025, the government has raised over US$5 billion through the West African Economic and Monetary Union regional bond market. This is approximately 12% of Senegal’s US$42 billion public debt.

Moody’s interpreted Senegal’s actions as weakness, warning that dependence on regional investors could expose Senegal to ‘reversals in investor sentiment’. In other words, the rating agency treated the fact that Senegal had mobilised domestic and regional capital as a new source of risk. On the contrary, S&P recognise this strength.

I have been researching Africa’s capital markets and the institutions that govern them for decades. Drawing in this, I argue here that Moody’s interpretation is both unfair and analytically flawed. Tapping into local and regional capital markets isn’t a liability. It’s a model of the fiscal sovereignty African countries have been encouraged by economists and African leaders to pursue for decades. This enhances self-reliance and reduces vulnerability to external shocks.

At the heart of the problem lies a narrow definition of risk. Rating models for emerging markets still prioritise narrow macroeconomic indicators – per-capita GDP, foreign-exchange reserves, current-account balances and IMF programme status. They don’t capture qualitative factors like domestic investor participation, fiscal adaptability and the development of regional markets.

Regional markets versus global

Countries worldwide are increasingly relying on local and regional markets to raise capital. In Africa, South Africa, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali and Côte d’Ivoire have been mirroring patterns seen in Mexico, Brazil and Indonesia, prioritising domestic and regional borrowing.

Regional and local-market financing has a number of benefits for countries.

First, it reduces foreign exchange exposure by reducing the needs for huge foreign currency reserves for debt servicing.

Second, it strengthens domestic market liquidity by expanding the number of local investors on the bond market.

Third, it keeps debt-service payments within Africa’s financial ecosystem. Retaining capital on the continent and reducing dependence on volatile external financing.

Lastly, it minimises market swings. Domestic bondholders are largely local institutional investors — a more stable and less speculative pool of capital that understands local market dynamics far better than external rating agencies.

Senegal’s regional bond issues have been performing extremely well because investors want to buy more than the government is even offering — a sign of strong demand. The interest rate it paid, averaging 7%, was also much lower than the much higher (double-digit) interest rates it would have been charged if it had borrowed from international markets through Eurobonds. In simple terms, borrowing locally was cheaper, safer and more attractive for Senegal than borrowing globally.

Investors from across the region – pension funds, banks and insurance companies – have been lining up to purchase the bonds on all the five issuance in 2025.

Senegal’s success boosts confidence among local investors and encourage other African governments to tap their own capital markets. A powerful incentive to mobilise more African capital for the continent’s development.

When ratings become a source of risk

Moody’s downgrade triggered immediate selling of Senegal’s Eurobonds due in 2048, driving their price down to about 72 cents on the dollar. That slump was not because the country’s economic fundamentals were deteriorating, it was sentiment triggered by the downgrade.

This dynamic creates a damaging feedback loop. Negative ratings lead to investor flight, which raises borrowing costs and validates the pessimism. In effect, the perception of risk becomes the cause of risk.

This cycle undermines the policy credibility of African governments. It disincentivises reform and discourages innovation.

It’s not the first time that rating agencies have cautioned risks that have a near zero chance of materialising and in the process, shaken investor confidence and caused capital fight. These include:

  • During the COVID crisis S&P warned of imminent food shortages and foreign-exchange depletion in Egypt despite stable remittance inflows and active central-bank management.

  • In 2023 the Kenyan government announced plans to repurchase part of its maturing Eurobond. This was a prudent debt-management step, but Moody’s warned it would be interpreted as a sign of distress. This never happened. In fact, Moody’s later upgraded Kenya’s outlook, largely based on the success of same bond restructuring which it warned against 10 months earlier.

What needs to change

Credit ratings are supposed to guide investors, not govern economies through certain policy inclinations. But in Africa’s case, they often do both. Because many institutional investors are required to hold investment-grade securities, a single downgrade can abruptly cut a country off from international capital markets.

The consequences are immediate and severe – higher interest rates, reduced access to credit, weaker currencies and a perception of crisis. This sequence can unfold even when a country’s underlying fundamentals are still strong. Overly cautious rating assessments not only reflect negative market sentiment, they create it.

Africa does not need special treatment, it needs balanced and context-sensitive rating evaluation.

Accurate risk assessment would recognise the strategic logic of financing through domestic and regional markets. It would acknowledge that by financing through domestic and regional markets, African governments are building alternatives that are better suited to current realities.

Global agencies must therefore recalibrate their analysis to account for domestic and regional market depth, fiscal adaptability, strength and stability of Africa’s internal markets. Ignoring these and focusing solely on perceived weaknesses is to tell an incomplete story to investors.

Without such adjustments, rating agencies will continue to lag behind economic reality and risk becoming instruments of distortion rather than insight.

The Conversation

Misheck Mutize is affiliated with the African Union – African Peer Review Mechanism as a Lead Expert on credit ratings

ref. Senegal’s credit rating: Moody’s latest downgrade was questionable – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/senegals-credit-rating-moodys-latest-downgrade-was-questionable-heres-why-269473

Fish farming is booming in Lake Victoria, but pollution and disease are wiping out millions. How to reduce losses

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Ekta Patel, Scientist, International Livestock Research Institute

Aquaculture – the farming of fish and other aquatic organisms – is the world’s fastest-growing food production system.

The sharpest growth in aquaculture is happening in Africa. Average annual growth rates have exceeded 10% in recent years measured by production value.

Over the past 10 years in Lake Victoria, shared between Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, aquaculture has transformed from a small-scale enterprise into a vast and diverse commercial industry.

Lake Victoria is the world’s second-largest freshwater lake. Cage aquaculture, the farming of fish within cages, has expanded rapidly in the lake. The cages are made of nets in frames, and are mostly stocked with Nile tilapia. The number of fish in a cage farm varies from tens to hundreds of thousands. The sector accounts for about 25% of the fish Kenya produces.

These cage farms support the nutrition and livelihoods of more than 40 million people in the lake’s basin.

We are environmental scientists who study biological threats to public health. From our research, we have found that this industry faces two interconnected challenges: large-scale fish deaths; and resistance to the drugs used to treat diseased fish.

Repeated, large-scale die-offs are known as fish kills. They involve the rapid death of hundreds of thousands, or sometimes millions, of fish within a few days. Many farmers who find dead fish in their cages simply toss them into the lake, where they can easily wash up against another cage and transmit disease.

Farmers and fish health professionals often use antimicrobials, which are drugs like antibiotics, to manage and treat infectious diseases. But antimicrobial resistance is a rising threat. A misuse of these drugs is fuelling the emergence of resistant bacteria, making treatments ineffective.

Because of the scale of these problems, we set out to systematically examine both the causes of mass fish deaths and the spread of antimicrobial resistance in Lake Victoria’s cage aquaculture industry.

Our study was conducted in Kenya. We found that fish deaths in Lake Victoria’s tilapia industry are likely driven by water quality problems. These include low oxygen levels, pollution and harmful algal blooms. Algal blooms refer to the rapid growth and subsequent decomposition of algae. This can lead to the release of toxins and rapid drops in dissolved oxygen levels.

These water quality problems create openings for infectious bacteria to thrive.

To address this, we suggest:

  • stronger disease reporting systems to enable a prompt response from industry authorities

  • improved diagnostics to determine the cause of fish mortalities

  • clear guidelines for antimicrobial use among farmers.

Without these interventions, the sustainability of a rapidly growing industry – and the food security of millions in east Africa – remains at risk.

Our findings

Our study surveyed 172 cage farm operations. These were across the five Kenyan counties in Lake Victoria (Kisumu, Siaya, Busia, Homa Bay and Migori).

We surveyed cage farmers’ perceptions and responses to fish kills. We also carried out a rapid-response investigation of a mass tilapia mortality event, and disease surveillance. Finally, we tested the antimicrobial resistance of identified bacterial pathogens.

Between 2020 and 2023, the farmers in our study reported 82 large-scale fish kill events in Lake Victoria, with more than 1.8 million tilapia dying.

These events had major economic consequences, but reporting and treatment were limited.

We found that only 39% of farmers informed the relevant Kenyan authorities. These include the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, Kenya Fisheries Service and county fisheries offices.

Just 17% attempted treatment. This usually included applying salt to the water without obtaining a diagnosis. This points to gaps in reporting systems and access to fish health services.

Farmers mostly attributed fish deaths to poor water quality. Nearly 90% perceived links to changes in water colour and smell, high temperatures or algal blooms.

Harmful algal blooms happen when phytoplankton (tiny organisms in the water) quickly multiply and then decompose. These blooms produce dangerous toxins and can rapidly lower the levels of dissolved oxygen in the water. They can lead to fish deaths, and can affect human health if people eat contaminated fish or drink the water.

Harmful algal blooms in Lake Victoria are driven by the runoff from industries and the excessive use of fertilisers.

A smaller number of farmers cited human activities like stocking, handling or pollution.

Very few directly associated mortalities with disease. This probably reflects limited training to recognise clinical signs of infection.

Our rapid-response investigation of a major fish kill in Busia County supported these observations. On arrival, we found discoloured, foul-smelling water. There were floating dead molluscs and low dissolved oxygen levels, conditions typical of harmful algal blooms.

From freshly deceased tilapia, we isolated three bacterial pathogens: Aeromonas jandaei, Enterobacter hormaechei and Staphylococcus epidermidis. These opportunistic pathogens often cause disease secondary to a primary stressor, such as poor water quality or rough handling.

This was the first time bacterial pathogens were successfully identified from a fish kill in Lake Victoria.

We found that bacterial tilapia pathogens were more commonly found within cage farms with clogged cage nets, likely because the nets reduce water circulation and worsen cage water quality.

Finally, antimicrobial resistance testing revealed resistant strains among the bacterial samples.

These results can guide veterinarians and policymakers in making decisions about antimicrobial use in aquaculture.

What next

Our findings point to a central conclusion: opportunistic pathogens are widespread in Lake Victoria. And fish disease outbreaks are often driven by poor water quality.

Action is needed at multiple levels.

At the landscape scale, nutrient runoff into the lake must be reduced. This requires improving sanitation infrastructure and promoting more efficient fertiliser use in agriculture. This will help prevent harmful algal blooms.

Fish farmers can:

  • set up cages in deeper waters with better circulation

  • keep cage nets clean to allow water flow

  • dispose of dead fish by composting or burning rather than throwing them back into the lake

  • rapidly report mortality events so authorities can investigate

  • improve feeding practices, such as using high-quality feed and avoiding overfeeding, to reduce nutrient loading into the lake.

A One Health approach, which recognises the interconnectedness of human, animal and environmental health, is important for the sustainability of Lake Victoria’s aquaculture.

This means monitoring water quality and pollution, and establishing cross-sectoral collaborations for rapid disease response. Farmers also need training.

Improved production practices can decrease the need for antibiotics in the first place. Coordinated monitoring systems and cross-sectoral collaboration can help promote their responsible use.

The Conversation

Eric Teplitz was funded by an NIH T32 postdoctoral training grant and a Cornell Atkinson Center Graduate Student Research Grant.

This study received funding from the USAID Feed the Future Fish Innovation Lab, US National Science Foundation, Cornell Atkinson Center Academic Venture Fund, and the Department of Public and Ecosystem Health Impact Awards (to KJF).

Ekta Patel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Fish farming is booming in Lake Victoria, but pollution and disease are wiping out millions. How to reduce losses – https://theconversation.com/fish-farming-is-booming-in-lake-victoria-but-pollution-and-disease-are-wiping-out-millions-how-to-reduce-losses-266073

If evolution is real, then why isn’t it happening now? An anthropologist explains that humans actually are still evolving

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael A. Little, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Anthropology, Binghamton University, State University of New York

Inuit people such as these Greenlanders have evolved to be able to eat fatty foods with a low risk of getting heart disease. Olivier Morin/AFP via Getty Images

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.


If evolution is real, then why is it not happening now? – Dee, Memphis, Tennessee


Many people believe that we humans have conquered nature through the wonders of civilization and technology. Some also believe that because we are different from other creatures, we have complete control over our destiny and have no need to evolve. Even though lots of people believe this, it’s not true.

Like other living creatures, humans have been shaped by evolution. Over time, we have developed – and continue to develop – the traits that help us survive and flourish in the environments where we live.

I’m an anthropologist. I study how humans adapt to different environments. Adaptation is an important part of evolution. Adaptations are traits that give someone an advantage in their environment. People with those traits are more likely to survive and pass those traits on to their children. Over many generations, those traits become widespread in the population.

The role of culture

We humans have two hands that help us skillfully use tools and other objects. We are able to walk and run on two legs, which frees our hands for these skilled tasks. And we have large brains that let us reason, create ideas and live successfully with other people in social groups.

All of these traits have helped humans develop culture. Culture includes all of our ideas and beliefs and our abilities to plan and think about the present and the future. It also includes our ability to change our environment, for example by making tools and growing food.

Although we humans have changed our environment in many ways during the past few thousand years, we are still changed by evolution. We have not stopped evolving, but we are evolving right now in different ways than our ancient ancestors. Our environments are often changed by our culture.

We usually think of an environment as the weather, plants and animals in a place. But environments include the foods we eat and the infectious diseases we are exposed to.

A very important part of the environment is the climate and what kinds of conditions we can live in. Our culture helps us change our exposure to the climate. For example, we build houses and put furnaces and air conditioners in them. But culture doesn’t fully protect us from extremes of heat, cold and the sun’s rays.

a man runs after one of several goats in a dry, dusty landscape
The Turkana people in Kenya have evolved to survive with less water than other people, which helps them live in a desert environment.
Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images

Here are some examples of how humans have evolved over the past 10,000 years and how we are continuing to evolve today.

The power of the sun’s rays

While the sun’s rays are important for life on our planet, ultraviolet rays can damage human skin. Those of us with pale skin are in danger of serious sunburn and equally dangerous kinds of skin cancer. In contrast, those of us with a lot of skin pigment, called melanin, have some protection against damaging ultraviolet rays from sunshine.

People in the tropics with dark skin are more likely to thrive under frequent bright sunlight. Yet, when ancient humans moved to cloudy, cooler places, the dark skin was not needed. Dark skin in cloudy places blocked the production of vitamin D in the skin, which is necessary for normal bone growth in children and adults.

The amount of melanin pigment in our skin is controlled by our genes. So in this way, human evolution is driven by the environment – sunny or cloudy – in different parts of the world.

The food that we eat

Ten thousand years ago, our human ancestors began to tame or domesticate animals such as cattle and goats to eat their meat. Then about 2,000 years later, they learned how to milk cows and goats for this rich food. Unfortunately, like most other mammals at that time, human adults back then could not digest milk without feeling ill. Yet a few people were able to digest milk because they had genes that let them do so.

Milk was such an important source of food in these societies that the people who could digest milk were better able to survive and have many children. So the genes that allowed them to digest milk increased in the population until nearly everyone could drink milk as adults.

This process, which occurred and spread thousands of years ago, is an example of what is called cultural and biological co-evolution. It was the cultural practice of milking animals that led to these genetic or biological changes.

Other people, such as the Inuit in Greenland, have genes that enable them to digest fats without suffering from heart diseases. The Turkana people herd livestock in Kenya in a very dry part of Africa. They have a gene that allows them to go for long periods without drinking much water. This practice would cause kidney damage in other people because the kidney regulates water in your body.

These examples show how the remarkable diversity of foods that people eat around the world can affect evolution.

gray scale microscope image of numerous blobs
These bacteria caused a devastating pandemic nearly 700 years ago that led humans to evolve resistance to them.
Image Point FR/NIH/NIAID/BSIP/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Diseases that threaten us

Like all living creatures, humans have been exposed to many infectious diseases. During the 14th century a deadly disease called the bubonic plague struck and spread rapidly throughout Europe and Asia. It killed about one-third of the population in Europe. Many of those who survived had a specific gene that gave them resistance against the disease. Those people and their descendants were better able to survive epidemics that followed for several centuries.

Some diseases have struck quite recently. COVID-19, for instance, swept the globe in 2020. Vaccinations saved many lives. Some people have a natural resistance to the virus based on their genes. It may be that evolution increases this resistance in the population and helps humans fight future virus epidemics.

As human beings, we are exposed to a variety of changing environments. And so evolution in many human populations continues across generations, including right now.


Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

The Conversation

Michael A. Little does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. If evolution is real, then why isn’t it happening now? An anthropologist explains that humans actually are still evolving – https://theconversation.com/if-evolution-is-real-then-why-isnt-it-happening-now-an-anthropologist-explains-that-humans-actually-are-still-evolving-266669

White nationalism fuels tolerance for political violence nationwide

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Murat Haner, Assistant Professor, School of Criminology & Criminal Justice, Arizona State University

Law enforcement set up in Green Isle, Minn., on June 15, 2025, as they search for a suspect in the killing of state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark. Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

Political violence among rival partisans has been a deadly and destabilizing force throughout history and across the globe. It has claimed countless lives, deepened social divisions and even led to the collapse of democratic systems.

In recent history, political violence and its deadly consequences were seen in Italy after World War I when thousands of fascist supporters marched on Rome, the capital, threatening to overthrow the government unless Benito Mussolini was appointed prime minister. That kind of violence and its effects were also seen in 1930s Germany, where Adolf Hitler suppressed opposition and suspended civil liberties amid widespread unrest and factional violence.

Similar patterns occurred elsewhere in the decades that followed. Fascist movements used political violence and intimidation to seize or consolidate power, as seen in Spain under Francisco Franco, in Portugal under António de Oliveira Salazar and in Romania under the Iron Guard.

Today, many scholars, journalists, commentators and elected officials across the political spectrum have voiced alarm over escalating acts of violence in the United States, drawing parallels to Europe’s authoritarian past. Reports of politically motivated violence are distressingly common – ranging from mass shootings, car-ramming attacks and assaults at demonstrations to assassination attempts, kidnappings and threats targeting mayors, governors, political activists and members of Congress.

For example, threats of violence against members of Congress increased by more than 1,400%, from 902 in 2016 to an estimated 14,000 by the end of 2025, according to U.S. Capitol Police reports.

Political violence is certainly not new in American society, but current patterns differ in key ways. We found that, today, white nationalism is a key driver of support for political violence – a sign that white nationalism poses substantial danger to U.S. political stability.

In the 1970s, violence was political theater, aimed at drawing government and public attention to specific policies. Today, it’s personal and deadly, driven by a desire to annihilate.

A page from a letter signed in red pen, 'Weather Underground,' claiming to have perpetrated a bombing of the U.S. Capitol building.
Page 5 and envelope of a letter received by The Associated Press in Washington D.C., on March 2, 1971, signed by ‘Weather Underground,’ which claims responsibility for the March 1 bombing of the U.S. Capitol building.
AP Photo

Changing targets

In the 1970s, radical left-wing groups often targeted government property to send political messages.

Attacks included the anti–Vietnam War bombings carried out by the Weather Underground, as well as actions by groups such as the Symbionese Liberation Army and United Freedom Front. They struck government and corporate targets to protest imperialism, racism and economic inequality. These attacks were generally intended as statements rather than mass-casualty events, with perpetrators often issuing warnings beforehand to minimize harm.

Today, however, much of the violence is aimed directly at individuals, often with the intent to harm or kill political opponents.

These include incidents such as the 2017 shooting targeting Republican lawmakers at a congressional baseball practice, the 2022 hammer attack on Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, and the 2025 killing of Democrat Melissa Hortman, the former speaker of the Minnesota House, and her husband in what authorities described as a politically motivated assassination.

This resurgence of political violence has prompted intense academic and journalistic scrutiny. Numerous public opinion surveys have sought to gauge Americans’ approval of, or concern about, using violence against the government or political adversaries.

Initial estimates suggested nearly 1 in 4 Americans support political violence. But later studies identified flaws in the questions used to measure support for violence. Simply asking about violence in general or the use of force leaves too much room for interpretation.

Using more sophisticated questioning techniques results in lower estimates of public support for political violence.

Understanding what drives individuals to endorse political violence is essential for developing effective strategies to prevent it. As public opinion researchers who have studied Americans’ attitudes toward ideological extremism, political polarization and counterterrorism policy, we sought to advance our understanding of the factors underlying public support for political violence in the United States.

We aimed to do this in two ways: by using more specific questioning techniques and by identifying the factors associated with increased support for violence.

Who justifies political violence?

Our study focused specifically on white nationalism – a growing movement in the U.S. – as a driver of support for violence.

We asked a national sample of 1,300 Americans how justified or unjustified it would be “to take violent action against the U.S. government” in response to a range of government actions. This approach captures both approval of the use of violence and its political motivation.

We included nonpartisan government actions such as “the government violated or took away citizens’ rights and freedoms” and “the government violated the U.S. Constitution” along with hypothetical actions reflecting right or left-wing political causes. For example, a right-wing action would be to ban all abortions while a left-wing action would be to legalize all abortions.

Analyses revealed substantial support for violence against the government in response to the nonpartisan government actions. Half of the respondents indicated that violence would be justified if the government violated citizens’ rights, and 55% supported the use of violence as a response if the U.S. government committed unlawful violence against citizens. Nearly 40% said that violence would be justified if the government censored the news.

When we examined the factors behind these attitudes, a belief in white nationalism stood out above all others. But what, precisely, is white nationalism? It is more than simply identifying as white. Indeed, white nationalism is a sentiment found among some nonwhite Americans as well.

White nationalists are concerned about the increasing diversity of the American population and want to ensure that white citizens maintain a predominant influence in the country. To them, white citizens’ social, cultural and political values are superior to those of nonwhite citizens and immigrants. The perceived need to protect and propagate these values serves as a call to action.

This ideology has motivated several recent acts of mass violence, from synagogue shootings to racially targeted attacks.

Our data revealed that a belief in white nationalism predicted support for political violence as well. In response to both nonpartisan government actions and those that would benefit left-wing causes, the stronger a person’s white nationalist sentiment, the more strongly that individual believed that violence would be justified.

Out of all the variables in our statistical models, including political views and demographic characteristics, white nationalism was the strongest predictor of support for violence in these circumstances.

It did not, however, significantly influence support for violence when the government actions would benefit right-wing causes.

Growing threat to US democracy

Most people who voice support for political violence will never commit violent acts themselves.

Yet such attitudes foster an atmosphere of tolerance, signaling that violence is acceptable and enabling its continuation. Our analyses show that these supportive attitudes are prevalent among white nationalists.

Active white nationalist groups operate in all but two U.S. states, Alaska and Vermont. Decentralized groups, such as Active Clubs, where white nationalists train and network, are also on the rise.

Many more individuals hold white nationalist sentiments without belonging to organized groups. Indeed, in our national sample, one quarter of respondents agreed with the statement “although people won’t admit it, White Americans and their culture are what made America great in the first place.”

The fact that white nationalism is gaining prominence in the U.S., combined with the association between holding white nationalist views and supporting political violence found in our study, indicates that white nationalism poses a serious threat to U.S. political stability.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. White nationalism fuels tolerance for political violence nationwide – https://theconversation.com/white-nationalism-fuels-tolerance-for-political-violence-nationwide-268480

Florida’s new open carry law combines with ‘stand your ground’ to create new freedoms – and new dangers

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Caroline Light, Senior Lecturer on Studies of Women, Gender, and Sexuality, Harvard University

As of September 2025, Florida allows open carry and permitless carry, in addition to its stand your ground law. Joe Raedle/Getty Images News

Twenty years ago, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush signed the first “stand your ground” law, calling it a “good, common-sense, anti-crime issue.”

The law’s creators promised it would protect law-abiding citizens from prosecution if they used force in self-defense. Then-Florida state Rep. Dennis Baxley, who cosponsored the bill, claimed – in the wake of George Zimmerman’s controversial acquittal for the killing of Trayvon Martin – that “we’re really safer if we empower people to stop violent acts.”

I’m a historian who has studied the roots of stand your ground laws. I published a book on the subject in 2017. My ongoing investigation of the laws suggests that, 20 years on, they have not made communities any safer, nor have they helped prevent crime. In fact, there is reliable evidence they have done just the opposite.

In the past 20 years, stand your ground has spread to 38 states.

Then, in September 2025, an appellate court struck down Florida’s long-standing ban on the open carry of firearms.

Florida’s attorney general, James Uthmeier, quickly announced that open carry is now “the law of the state,” directing law enforcement not to arrest people who display handguns in public.

Under the state’s permitless carry law, enacted in 2023, adults without a criminal record also don’t need a permit or any training to carry firearms publicly.

In my view, this combination of stand your ground, open carry and permitless carry is likely to make the Sunshine State far less safe.

Let’s look at the evidence.

What ‘stand your ground’ means

Under traditional self-defense law, a person had a duty to retreat – to try to avoid a violent confrontation if they could safely do so – before resorting to deadly force.

The main exception to the duty to retreat was known as the castle doctrine, whereby people could defend themselves, with force if necessary, if they were attacked in their own homes.

Stand your ground laws effectively expand the boundaries of the castle doctrine to the wider world, removing the duty to retreat and allowing people to use lethal force anywhere they have a legal right to be, as long as they believe it’s necessary to prevent death or serious harm.

On paper, the expansion of the right to self-defense may sound reasonable. But in practice, stand your ground laws have blurred the line between self-defense and aggression by expanding legal immunity for some who claim self-defense and shifting the burden of proof to prosecutors.

While supporters of these laws claim they mitigate crime and make people safer, evidence shows the opposite. The nonpartisan RAND Corp. discovered that states adopting stand your ground laws experienced significant increases in homicide, typically between 8% and 11% higher than before the laws took effect.

A study of violent crime in Florida revealed a 31.6% increase in firearm homicides following the 2005 passage of the stand your ground law. There is no credible evidence that these laws deter crime.

On the contrary, evidence shows that stand your ground laws lower the legal, moral and psychological costs of pulling the trigger.

Stand your ground and race

While the language of stand your ground laws is race-neutral, their enforcement is not. Data from the Urban Institute and the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights show that in states with stand your ground laws, homicides are far more likely to be deemed “justified” when the shooter is white and the victim is Black.

I’ve found that these laws have redefined not only when force is justified but who is justified in using force.

In my assessment, these laws don’t create racial bias. Rather, they magnify the biases already present in our criminal legal system. They give broader discretion to a legal system in which law enforcement officers, judges, prosecutors and juries often hold unacknowledged biases that associate Black men with criminality, while perceiving white people who say they were defending themselves as credible.

A sign for a rally after the Trayvon Martin shooting in Sanford, Florida.
Seventeen-year-old Trayvon Martin was unarmed when George Zimmerman shot and killed him on March 20, 2012, in Sanford, Fla. Zimmerman claimed he killed Martin in self-defense and was acquitted by a jury.
Gerardo Mora/Getty Images News

That dynamic is visible in a growing multitude of cases, such as the shootings of unarmed teenagers Trayvon Martin, Jordan Davis, Renisha McBride and Ralph Yarl.

Each instance illustrates how stand your ground transforms ordinary mistakes or misunderstandings into lethal outcomes, and how armed citizens’ claims of “reasonable fear” often reflect racial stereotypes more than objective threats.

A dangerous mix

Florida’s legalization of open carry intersects with the state’s permitless carry and stand your ground laws in alarming ways. Open carry increases the visibility – and perceived legitimacy – of guns in everyday life.

Combined with the removal of licensing procedures and training requirements, laws that broaden the right to use deadly force create a permissive environment for opportunistic violence.

When everyone is visibly armed, every encounter can look like a potential threat. And when the law tells you that you don’t have to back down, that perception can turn lethal in seconds.

Florida has become a model for what gun rights advocates call “freedom” but what public health experts see as a recipe for more shootings and more death.

National implications: ‘Reciprocity’ and expansion

Two decades later, stand your ground laws have spread, in various forms, to 38 states. While 30 states have legislatively enacted stand your ground statutes like Florida’s, eight others implement stand your ground through case law and jury instructions that effectively remove the duty to retreat.

On top of this, 29 states have enacted laws allowing permitless carry, and 47 technically allow open carry, though restrictions vary across the states.

President Donald Trump has made clear he wants to take this deregulatory approach nationwide. While on the campaign trail, he promised to sign a “concealed-carry reciprocity” law, which would require all states to allow people from states with permissive laws to exercise those rights in all 50. “Your Second Amendment does not end at the state line,” he announced in a 2023 video.

If that vision becomes reality, it would mean the most permissive state laws will set the standard for the entire country. National reciprocity would allow Floridians, and other gun owners from permitless carry states, to carry their firearms – and potentially claim stand your ground immunity – in any other state, including those with stricter rules and lower rates of firearm death and injury.

This prospect raises deep questions about states’ rights, safety and justice. Research shows that stand your ground laws increase homicide and exacerbate racial disparities. National reciprocity would export those effects nationwide.

In my view, the convergence of stand your ground, open carry and national reciprocity marks the culmination of a 20-year experiment in armed citizenship. The results are clear: more people armed, more shootings and more deaths “justified.”

The question now is whether the rest of the nation will follow Florida’s lead.

Read more stories from The Conversation about Florida.

The Conversation

Caroline Light is affiliated with GVPedia and collaborates with Giffords.

ref. Florida’s new open carry law combines with ‘stand your ground’ to create new freedoms – and new dangers – https://theconversation.com/floridas-new-open-carry-law-combines-with-stand-your-ground-to-create-new-freedoms-and-new-dangers-267496

Slavery’s brutal reality shocked Northerners before the Civil War − and is being whitewashed today by the White House

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gerry Lanosga, Associate Professor of Journalism, Indiana University

The Trump administration is reviewing Smithsonian exhibits on slavery and other topics to reflect certain values. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Long before the first shots were fired in the Civil War, beginning early in the 19th century, Americans had been fighting a protracted war of words over slavery.

On one side, Southern planters and slavery apologists portrayed the practice of human bondage as sanctioned by God and beneficial even to enslaved people.

On the other side, opponents of slavery painted a picture of violence, injustice and the hypocrisy of professed Christians defending the sin of slavery.

But to the abolitionists, it became crucial to transcend mere rhetoric. They wanted to show Americans uncomfortable truths about the practice of slavery – a strategy that is happening again as activists and citizens fight modern-day attempts at historical whitewashing.

As a media scholar who has studied the history of abolitionist journalism, I hear echoes of that two-century-old narrative battle in President Donald Trump’s effort to purge public memorials and markers honoring the suffering and heroism of the enslaved as well as those who championed their freedom.

Celebration vs. reality

the image shows a Black man sitting and facing away from the camera, his back deeply scarred by whipping
‘The Scourged Back,’ by McPherson & Oliver, is an 1863 image that depicts the scarred back of a formerly enslaved man.
Courtesy National Gallery of Art, Washington

Among the materials reportedly flagged for removal from history museums, national parks and other government facilities is a disturbing but powerful photograph known as “The Scourged Back.”

The 1863 image depicts a formerly enslaved man, his back horrifically scarred by whipping. It’s certainly hard to look at, yet to look away or try to forget it means to ignore what it has to say about the complicated and often brutal history of the nation.

In Trump’s view, these memorials are “revisionist” and “driven by ideology rather than truth.” In an executive order named Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History, Trump said public materials should “focus on the greatness of the achievements and progress of the American people.”

Essentially, the president appears to want a history that celebrates American achievement rather than being forced to look at “The Scourged Back” and other historical realities that document aspects of the American story that don’t warrant celebration.

Combating ignorance of slavery’s horrors

Thinking back to the decades leading up to the Civil War, facts were the weapon abolitionists wielded in their fight against the distortions of pro-slavery forces. It was an uphill battle in the face of indifference by many in the North. After a visit to Massachusetts in 1830, abolitionist writer William Lloyd Garrison blamed such attitudes on “exceeding ignorance of the horrors of slavery.”

It is not surprising that in the early 19th century many Americans would have had limited knowledge of slavery. Travel was arduous, time-consuming and expensive, and most Northerners had little firsthand exposure to slave societies. Abolitionists argued that those who did visit the South were often shielded from the harsher realities of slavery. This extended to the media ecosystem, which lacked any real national news organizations.

Moreover, Southern plantation owners carried out a robust propaganda effort to extol the beneficence of their economic system. In letters, pamphlets and books, they argued that slavery was beneficial to all and that the enslaved were happy and well-treated. They also attacked their opponents as evil and dishonest.

As abolitionist Lydia Maria Child wrote in 1838: “The apologists of Southern slavery are accustomed to brand every picture of slavery and its fruits as exaggeration or calumny.”

Don’t look away

Thus, the challenge for abolitionists was to show slavery as it really was – and to compel people to look. An emphasis on hard evidence took firm hold in the wave of abolitionism in the 1830s.

Activists didn’t yet have photography, so they relied on accounts from eyewitnesses and formerly enslaved people, official reports and even some plantation owners’ own words in Southern newspaper advertisements seeking the return of runaways.

“Until the pictures of the slave’s sufferings were drawn up and held up to public gaze, no Northerner had any idea of the cruelty of the system,” abolitionist Angelina Grimké wrote in her famous “Appeal to the Christian Women of the South” in 1836.

“It never entered their minds that such abominations could exist in Christian, Republican America; they never suspected that many of the gentlemen and ladies who came from the South to spend the summer months in travelling among them, were petty tyrants at home,” Grimké wrote.

In pamphlets and newspapers, Grimké and others laid down a documentary record of the abuses of slavery, naming names and emphasizing legal evidence of their claims. In my research, I have argued that while abolitionists didn’t invent the journalistic exposé, they did develop the first fully articulated methodology for confronting abuses of power through carefully documented facts – laying the groundwork for later generations of investigative reporters and fact-checkers.

Most critically, what they did is point a finger at injustice and demand that America not look away. In its first issue, in 1835, the newspaper Human Rights emphasized “the importance of first settling what slavery really is.” Inside, it included a series of advertisements documenting slave sales and rewards for runaways reprinted from Southern newspapers.

The headline: “ LOOK AT THIS!!

Tried and acquitted

portrait of a Black woman in profile
Angelina Grimké was an American journalist, teacher, playwright and poet who documented slavery’s cruelties.
Interim Archives/Getty Images

One of the most remarkable efforts in this abolitionist campaign was a 233-page pamphlet called “American Slavery As It Is: Testimony of a Thousand Witnesses.” Published in 1839 by Theodore Dwight Weld along with his wife, Angelina Grimké, and her sister, it was an exhaustively documented exposé of floggings, torture, killings, overwork and undernourishment.

One example involved a wealthy tobacconist who whipped a 15-year-old girl to death: “While he was whipping her, his wife heated a smoothing iron, put it on her body in various places, and burned her severely. The verdict of the coroner’s inquest was, ‘Died of excessive whipping.’ He was tried in Richmond and acquitted.”

It is difficult reading, to be sure, and certainly the kind of material that might foster “a national sense of shame,” as Trump’s executive order claims. But getting rid of the evils of slavery meant first acknowledging them. And the second part – critical to avoiding the mistakes of the past – is remembering them.

‘Consciences shocked’

So how effective was this abolitionist campaign to lay bare the terrible facts about slavery?

At least some readers of “American Slavery As It Is” had their consciences shocked. One New Hampshire newspaper reacted this way: “We thought we knew something of the horrid character of slavery before, but upon looking over the pages of this book, we find that we had no adequate idea of the number and enormity of the cruelties which are constantly being perpetrated under this system of all abominations.”

And one famous reader was Harriet Beecher Stowe, who drew on the book as inspiration for “Uncle Tom’s Cabin,” published more than a decade later.

The 1830s reflected the height of the abolitionist movement in books, pamphlets and newspapers. While the activism continued in the 1840s and 1850s, ultimately it took secession and civil war to finally end slavery. But, of course, it didn’t take long for the country to fall into a prolonged period of formal and informal segregation in both the North and the South, many vestiges of which remain.

That reality of a history that doesn’t proceed along a straight path to justice underscores the importance of preserving, remembering and teaching difficult parts of the past such as “The Scourged Back.”

On the title page of “American Slavery As It Is,” Weld and the Grimkés printed a quote from the biblical book of Ezekiel: “Behold the wicked abominations that they do.” It was a command to the nation to look without flinching at what it was, and it is as pertinent today as it was then.

The Conversation

Gerry Lanosga does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Slavery’s brutal reality shocked Northerners before the Civil War − and is being whitewashed today by the White House – https://theconversation.com/slaverys-brutal-reality-shocked-northerners-before-the-civil-war-and-is-being-whitewashed-today-by-the-white-house-266424

Most colleges score low on helping students of all faiths – or none – develop a sense of belonging. Faculty can help change that

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Matthew J. Mayhew, Professor of Higher Education, The Ohio State University

Students don’t need to be protected from others’ views, but they can benefit from support to keep those conversations respectful. PIKSEL/iStock via Getty Images Plus

What helps students from all walks of life have a good college experience?

Beyond all the concrete things schools can offer – academics, research opportunities, sports, dining halls – is something both basic and hard to define: a sense of belonging.

Factors such as race and gender can influence how at home a student feels on campus, contributing to their overall well-being. But my research highlights the role of religion and spirituality, too: how support for students’ worldviews – whether they’re deeply religious, atheist or somewhere in between – shapes their campus experience.

My recent scholarship with fellow higher education professor Musbah Shaheen argues that a sense of belonging arises mainly from meaningful relationships and conversations about those topics, not from simply having religious clubs and organizations on campus.

With that in mind, we believe universities can move beyond tolerance toward real appreciation for all students, including religious minorities.

Foundational role of relationships

This recent work builds on results from the Interfaith Diversity Experiences and Attitudes Longitudinal Survey, or IDEALS. In 2014, higher education researcher Alyssa N. Rockenbach and I designed the project in partnership with Interfaith America, a nonprofit that encourages interfaith dialogue on campus. Running from 2015 to 2019, it surveyed 3,486 students across 122 campuses to understand the ways colleges could support students’ well-being when it comes to their worldviews, religious identities and spiritual beliefs.

A main theme emerged in students’ responses: Feeling cared about, accepted and valued on campus was rooted in relationships. But faculty and staff also had an important role to play in modeling respectful relationships and in helping students engage respectively with each other.

Rows of young people, most of whom are Black, stand and sing in a large darkened auditorium.
Jackson State University students worship during the Tigerville Gospel Explosion on April 13, 2025, in Jackson, Miss.
Aron Smith/Jackson State University via Getty Images

Findings from the study also showed that campuses can help foster student friendships across religions by creating opportunities for students to engage with each other authentically. They can try to make sure campus conversations about religion and spirituality are built on trust, not proselytizing or coercion. They can offer opportunities for students from different religious backgrounds to participate in service-learning experiences, leadership opportunities and interfaith programs, to name a few.

Respectful relationships are especially important for religious minorities’ sense of belonging. A campus’s climate is often shaped by Christian heritage in ways many students may not even notice: chapels, sometimes repurposed as classroom space; dining halls that don’t offer halal or kosher meals; and academic calendars that prioritize certain religious holidays over others.

Apart from addressing these issues head-on, there are other ways to help offset these dynamics. In the IDEALS study, students who reported having supportive spaces for challenging but respectful dialogues – where they could share perspectives without feeling coerced or harmed – with peers who hold differing worldviews felt a greater sense of belonging.

The answer is not to avoid tough conversations. Instead, it is to ensure they are guided and productive. In this sense, strong academic engagement matters: involving faculty both in and out of the classroom, as one means of helping students engage with one another respectfully.

Academic support

Thanks to the IDEALS survey, we had a sense of what matters to students in making their worldview feel respected on campus. But how are campuses actually doing at implementing those practices?

To find out, Rockenbach and I then designed the Institutional Norms Supporting Pluralism and Inclusive Religious Engagement Study, or INSPIRES. This ongoing project is a multiyear exploration into the factors institutions have in place to support the well-being of students with a wide range of beliefs.

Young men and women stand in rows outside at night, some of them bent forward in prayer.
Jewish students and allies hold a Shabbat and a prayer in solidarity with the pro-Palestinian students encampment at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., on April 26, 2024.
Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images

The sample included data from 318 colleges and universities. Thirty-one percent were public, while 69% were private. Any university can sign up for the assessment, free of cost, so 174 of these schools have participated multiple times to understand how their campus’s climate is changing – whether it’s becoming more welcoming, and for whom.

Our team used student responses to the IDEALS surveys to develop scales, measuring how welcoming campuses are for students from diverse spiritual backgrounds. We then rated schools from 1 to 5 – the highest rating – on several different areas, such as religious accommodations and efforts to combat hate and intolerance.

One of the most important categories is academic engagement – specifically, how institutions formalize practices designed to foster two things. The first is interfaith literacy: knowledge and understanding of diverse religious traditions. The second is dialogue: structured opportunities for interaction among people of different religious, spiritual and secular beliefs.

The data shows that most schools have lots of room for improvement when it comes to academic engagement about religion. Using the 1-5 scale, 19% of institutions scored a 1, and 33% of schools scored just a 2. Another 30% scored a 3. Seventeen percent scored a 4 – and only two out of the 318 received a 5.

More than 52% of institutions are in the lowest two levels, highlighting the lack of campuswide academic initiatives that foster belonging.

A student's light blue cap has 'My success is only by Allah' penned on it in Arabic and English.
A student wears a graduation cap with a verse from the Quran written on it at Columbia University in New York City on May 21, 2025.
Jeenah Moon/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

5-star standard

The five-star standard includes practices that foster safe, guided interactions among people who hold different worldviews.

In part, that means embedding worldview diversity in the curriculum. Higher-scoring schools offer majors or minors in religious studies. What’s more, they offer courses in many departments that address various spiritual, religious and secular perspectives. Where appropriate, faculty include topics related to students’ identities and worldviews to prompt discussion.

For religious minorities, in particular, seeing their identities reflected in academic offerings helps them feel seen and signals that their traditions are intellectually important.

Five-star schools also make space for academic conversations about religion with faculty outside the classroom. According to IDEALS, students who discussed topics related to personal values or beliefs with faculty outside of class felt a stronger sense of belonging.

Classrooms, office hours and academic group work can be spaces for what we call “provocative encounters,” where students may be uncomfortable being exposed to different perspectives but do not feel coerced or harmed. This turns topics that could leave students feeling marginalized, silenced or preached to into opportunities for meaningful connection.

Students’ sense of religious and spiritual belonging comes from everyday relationships – authentic connections and conversations that faculty and staff can help foster. I believe universities can create an environment where all students, including religious minorities, feel seen, accepted and appreciated.

The Conversation

Matthew J. Mayhew receives funding from the Templeton Religions Trust, the Arthur Vining Davis Foundations, the Pew Charitable Trusts, the Educational Credit Management Corporation (ECMC) Foundation, the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Merrifield Family Trust, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Fetzer Institute, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, the Merrifield Family Trust, and the United States Department of Education.

ref. Most colleges score low on helping students of all faiths – or none – develop a sense of belonging. Faculty can help change that – https://theconversation.com/most-colleges-score-low-on-helping-students-of-all-faiths-or-none-develop-a-sense-of-belonging-faculty-can-help-change-that-267271

Student cheating dominates talk of generative AI in higher ed, but universities and tech companies face ethical issues too

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jeffrey C. Dixon, Professor of Sociology, College of the Holy Cross

A wider look at ethical questions around generative AI brings in much more than academic integrity. Huaxia Zhou via Getty Images

Debates about generative artificial intelligence on college campuses have largely centered on student cheating. But focusing on cheating overlooks a larger set of ethical concerns that higher education institutions face, from the use of copyrighted material in large language models to student privacy.

As a sociologist who teaches about AI and studies the impact of this technology on work, I am well acquainted with research on the rise of AI and its social consequences. And when one looks at ethical questions from multiple perspectives – those of students, higher education institutions and technology companies – it is clear that the burden of responsible AI use should not fall entirely on students’ shoulders.

I argue that responsibility, more generally, begins with the companies behind this technology and needs to be shouldered by higher education institutions themselves.

To ban or not to ban generative AI

Let’s start where some colleges and universities did: banning generative AI products, such as ChatGPT, partly over student academic integrity concerns.

While there is evidence that students inappropriately use this technology, banning generative AI ignores research indicating it can improve college students’ academic achievement. Studies have also shown generative AI may have other educational benefits, such as for students with disabilities. Furthermore, higher education institutions have a responsibility to make students ready for AI-infused workplaces.

Given generative AI’s benefits and its widespread student use, many colleges and universities today have integrated generative AI into their curricula. Some higher education institutions have even provided students free access to these tools through their school accounts. Yet I believe these strategies involve additional ethical considerations and risks.

As with previous waves of technology, the adoption of generative AI can exacerbate inequalities in education, given that not all students will have access to the same technology. If schools encourage generative AI use without providing students with free access, there will be a divide between students who can pay for a subscription and those who use free tools.

On top of this, students using free tools have few privacy guarantees in the U.S. When they use these tools – even as simple as “Hey ChatGPT, can you help me brainstorm a paper idea?” – students are producing potentially valuable data that companies use to improve their models. By contrast, paid versions can offer more data protections and clearer privacy guidelines.

Higher education institutions can address equity concerns and help protect student data by seeking licenses with vendors that address student privacy. These licenses can provide students with free access to generative AI tools and specify that student data is not to be used to train or improve models. However, they are not panaceas.

Who’s responsible now?

In “Teaching with AI,” José Antonio Bowen and C. Edward Watson argue that higher education institutions need to rethink their approach to academic integrity. I agree with their assessment, but for ethical reasons not covered in their book: Integrating generative AI into the curriculum through vendor agreements involves higher education institutions recognizing tech companies’ transgressions and carefully considering the implications of owning student data.

To begin, I find the practice of penalizing students for “stealing” words from large language models to write papers ethically difficult to reconcile with tech companies’ automated “scraping” of websites, such as Wikipedia and Reddit, without citation. Big tech companies have used copyrighted material – some of it allegedly taken from piracy websites – to train the large language models that power chatbots. Although the two actions – asking a chatbot to write an essay versus training it on copyrighted material – are not exactly the same, they both have a component of ethical responsibility. For technology companies, ethical issues such as this are typically raised only in lawsuits.

For institutions of higher education, I think these issues should be raised prior to signing AI vendor licenses. As a Chronicle of Higher Education article suggests, colleges and universities should vet AI model outputs as they would student papers. If they have not done so prior to signing vendor agreements, I see little basis for them to pursue traditional “academic integrity” violations for alleged student plagiarism. Instead, higher education institutions should consider changes to their academic integrity policies.

Then there is the issue of how student data is handled under AI vendor agreements. One likely source of student concern is whether their school, as a commercial customer and data owner, logs interactions with identifiers and can pursue academic integrity charges and other matters on this basis.

The solution to this is simple: Higher education institutions can prominently display the terms and conditions of such agreements to members of their community. If colleges and universities are unwilling to do so, or if their leaders don’t understand the terms themselves, then maybe institutions need to rethink their AI strategies.

The above data privacy issues take on new meaning given the ways in which generative AI is currently being used, sometimes as “companions” with which people share highly personal information. OpenAI estimates that about 70% of ChatGPT consumer usage is for nonwork purposes. OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, recognizes that people are turning to ChatGPT for “deeply personal decisions that include life advice, coaching and support.”

Although the long-term effects of using chatbots as companions or confidants is unknown, the recent case of a teen committing suicide while interacting with ChatGPT is a tragic reminder of generative AI’s risks and the importance of ensuring people’s personal security along with their privacy.

Formulating explicit statements that generative AI should be used only for academic purposes could help mitigate the risks related to students forming potentially damaging emotional attachments with chatbots. So, too, could reminders about campus mental health and other resources. Training students and faculty on all these matters and more can aid in promoting personally responsible AI use.

But colleges and universities cannot skirt their own responsibilities. At some point, higher education institutions may see that such responsibility is too heavy of a cross to bear and that their risk-mitigation strategies are essentially Band-Aids for a systemic problem.

The Conversation

Jeffrey C. Dixon is a faculty representative on the College of the Holy Cross Institutional Review of Artificial Intelligence Task Force.

ref. Student cheating dominates talk of generative AI in higher ed, but universities and tech companies face ethical issues too – https://theconversation.com/student-cheating-dominates-talk-of-generative-ai-in-higher-ed-but-universities-and-tech-companies-face-ethical-issues-too-268167

Guinée-Bissau : pourquoi l’élection présidentielle est déjà entachée et jouée d’avance

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Jonathan Powell, Visiting assistant professor, University of Kentucky

La Guinée-Bissau se prépare au scrutin de novembre dans un contexte où la légitimité électorale s’effrite partout en Afrique. Ces derniers mois, plusieurs élections ont renforcé l’idée que le pouvoir en place, plus que l’opposition, reste le facteur décisif.

Au Cameroun, Paul Biya, âgé de 92 ans, a remporté un huitième mandat consécutif après avoir officiellement obtenu 53,7 % des voix, un résultat largement dénoncé comme frauduleux et a été accueilli par des protestations.

En Tanzanie, la présidente Samia Suluhu Hassan a été déclarée vainqueur avec un score invraisemblable de 98 % des suffrages exprimés en sa faveur, à l’issue d’un scrutin entaché de nombreuses irrégularités et suivi de protestations et une répression sans précédent dans l’histoire du pays.

Et en Côte d’Ivoire, le président Alassane Ouattara a facilement obtenu un quatrième mandat avec près de 90 % des voix, prolongeant ainsi son emprise sur le pouvoir, malgré la limite constitutionnelle de deux mandats.

À travers le continent, y compris en Afrique de l’Ouest, ces résultats alimentent le cynisme du public et mettent en évidence un effritement inquiétant des normes démocratiques. Les dirigeants manipulent les Constitutions, neutralisent leurs opposants et vident de leur substance les institutions censées garantir la reddition des comptes.

C’est dans ce climat de désillusion régionale que les Bissau-Guinéens se rendront aux urnes le 23 novembre.

Ce scrutin aurait pu montrer des signes de résilience démocratique et un renforcement institutionnel, permettant au pays de rompre avec une longue histoire d’instabilité. Au lieu de cela, le processus a été affaibli à plusieurs reprises par le président Umar Sissoco Embaló.

En tant que spécialistes en sciences sociales ayant beaucoup étudié l’instabilité politique en Afrique, nous pensons que cette dynamique confirme encore une fois un nouvel échec électoral dans la région.

L’enjeu dépasse la crédibilité démocratique de la Guinée-Bissau. Cette dérive s’inscrit dans une crise régionale plus large. Les dirigeants en place affaiblissent la légitimité non pas en supprimant les élections, mais en les vidant de toute compétition réelle.

Un héritage d’instabilité

Contrairement à des dirigeants restés très longtemps au pouvoir comme Biya ou Ouattara, ou à des partis dominants comme le CCM en Tanzanie, les électeurs bissau-guinéens évoluent dans un système marqué par l’imprévisibilité et l’instabilité, surtout en période électorale.

Les turbulences électorales modernes du pays remontent à plusieurs décennies. João Bernardo « Nino » Vieira est revenu au pouvoir en 2005 pour un second mandat, près d’un quart de siècle après avoir pris le contrôle du pouvoir lors d’un coup d’État en 1980.

Son règne a été marqué par des conflits, notamment une guerre civile de 11 mois déclenchée par une rébellion de l’ancien chef d’État-major de l’armée, Ansumane Mané. Le long premier mandat de Vieira s’est terminé par un deuxième coup d’État en mai 1999, et son deuxième mandat a été interrompu en 2009 lorsqu’il a été assassiné par des membres des forces armées.

Malam Bacai Sanhá a été élu pour succéder à Vieira, mais il est décédé en janvier 2012, laissant Raimundo Pereira comme président par intérim. Quelques mois plus tard, Pereira a été destitué lors d’un nouveau coup d’État militaire.

Les troubles de 2012 ont interrompu le second tour des élections entre Carlos Domingos Gomes Júnior et Kumba Ialá.

L’élection de 2014 a porté José Mário Vaz à la présidence, face à un candidat proche de l’armée.

Lorsqu’il a achevé son mandat en 2020, il est devenu le premier président bissau-guinéen à terminer un mandat constitutionnel.

Remise en cause du processus

Des questions se sont posées avant même le départ de Vaz. Après la proclamation de la victoire d’Umar Sissoco Embaló sur Pereira lors du second tour du 29 décembre, Pereira a contesté les résultats. Ignorant la procédure judiciaire en cours, Embaló a organisé une cérémonie d’investiture pour lui-même en février 2020.

Le Parti africain pour l’indépendance de la Guinée et du Cap-Vert (PAIGC) a accusé Embaló d’avoir orchestré un coup d’État et nommé Cipriano Cassamá président par intérim.

Embaló a ensuite ordonné le déploiement de l’armée dans les institutions publiques, y compris l’Assemblée nationale. Cassamá a démissionné dès son deuxième jour, invoquant des menaces de mort.

La Cour suprême a finalement refusé de se prononcer sur le litige après que son président a fui le pays, invoquant également des menaces de mort. La crise a été effectivement résolue par la reconnaissance du gouvernement Embaló par la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (Cedeao). Cependant, l’incertitude continuera de peser sur le nouveau gouvernement.

En mai 2022, trois mois après une tentative de coup d’État, Embaló dissout et suspend le parlement.

Le principal parti d’opposition, le PAIGC, a officiellement repris le contrôle du Parlement lors des élections de juin 2023, ouvrant la voie à une confrontation continue entre la présidence et la majorité législative. Embaló a de nouveau cherché à dissoudre le parlement en décembre 2023.

Bien que le mandat d’Embaló ait officiellement expiré en février 2025, la Cour suprême a ensuite décidé qu’il pouvait rester en fonction jusqu’au 4 septembre.

Même après cette date, Embaló est resté en fonction. Ces manœuvres ont accru les inquiétudes concernant l’effritement des normes constitutionnelles.

Les préoccupations concernant le contexte électoral général ont également été mises en avant. Les élections législatives initialement prévues pour fin novembre 2024 ont été reportées sine die en raison de problèmes présumés de financement et de logistique. Auparavant, Embaló avait déclaré qu’il ne se représenterait pas, avant de faire marche arrière en mars 2025.

Une équipe de médiation déployée par la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, chargée d’aider les parties à convenir d’un calendrier électoral et à le respecter, s’est brusquement retirée à la suite de menaces d’expulsion du gouvernement Embaló.

Plus récemment, le candidat présidentiel choisi par le PAIGC, Domingos Simões Pereira, a été empêché de se présenter à l’élection de novembre. La Cour suprême a rejeté sa candidature en raison du dépôt tardif de dossiers.

Pour la première fois dans l’histoire de la Guinée-Bissau, le parti le plus ancien et le plus influent du pays sera exclu de la course à la présidence.

Le pays a chuté dans l’indice de démocratie électorale fourni par Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem). Comme le montre le graphique ci-dessous, cette baisse est encore plus importante que celle observée après les coups d’État militaires de 2003 et 2012 et l’assassinat de Vieira en 2009.

Les données de V-Dem s’arrêtent en 2024 et ne prennent donc pas encore en compte le cycle électoral de 2025.

Des élections de façade et un pouvoir qui se durcit

Ce qui se passe en Guinée-Bissau n’est pas une crise isolée. Elle s’inscrit dans une tendance régionale où certains dirigeants maintiennent les élections – parfois avec faste – tout en vidant de leur sens les institutions censées garantir la transparence et la compétition.

Les récents coups d’État dans la région ont d’ailleurs été en partie alimentés par la frustration populaire face à des processus électoraux dévoyés.

Embaló n’a pas la longévité de Paul Biya au Cameroun, ni l’appareil de domination du CCM en Tanzanie, mais les méthodes qu’il utilise sont comparables : élimination des adversaires crédibles, manipulation des délais constitutionnels, intimidation via les forces de sécurité et affaiblissement de la justice.

Pour la première fois depuis des décennies, la Guinée-Bissau était sur le point de démontrer que la résilience démocratique pouvait être renforcée. Au lieu de cela, le cycle électoral de 2025 risque de devenir un autre exemple de la façon dont des acquis fragiles peuvent être réduits à néant en toute impunité.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Guinée-Bissau : pourquoi l’élection présidentielle est déjà entachée et jouée d’avance – https://theconversation.com/guinee-bissau-pourquoi-lelection-presidentielle-est-deja-entachee-et-jouee-davance-269896

L’Afrique doit protéger ses banques de développement contre les discours visant à les affaiblir

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Misheck Mutize, Post Doctoral Researcher, Graduate School of Business (GSB), University of Cape Town

Une bataille discrète mais lourde de conséquences se joue au sein de l’architecture financière mondiale. Une lutte qui pourrait déterminer la capacité de l’Afrique à financer son propre développement.

Ces derniers mois, des voix influentes issues du Fonds monétaire international (FMI), du Club de Paris et la banque d’investissement américaine JP Morgan ont remis en question le statut de créancier privilégié des institutions financières multilatérales africaines de développement. Ces institutions comprennent la Banque africaine d’import-export (Afreximbank) et la Banque pour le commerce et le développement (TDB).

Le statut de créancier privilégié est une pratique de longue date dans le domaine de la finance mondiale. Il donne aux institutions multilatérales de financement du développement la priorité en matière de remboursement lorsqu’un pays est confronté à des difficultés financières. Le principe est simple. Ces institutions accordent des prêts pour promouvoir le développement. En cas de crise, elles interviennent en multipliant les prêts au moment où les créanciers commerciaux ont tendance à se retirer.

Cette fiabilité dépend de leur solide notation de crédit, qui repose à son tour sur l’assurance qu’ils seront remboursés même si les autres ne le seront pas. Cette assurance est garantie par le statut de créancier privilégié. La Banque mondiale, le FMI et les banques régionales de développement en Asie et en Amérique latine bénéficient tous de cette protection dans la pratique. Les emprunteurs la respectent car la violer menacerait leur accès à de futurs prêts concessionnels, c’est-à-dire des prêts proposés à des taux d’intérêt et à d’autres conditions beaucoup plus avantageux.

Les détracteurs des institutions financières multilatérales africaines affirment qu’elles sont trop petites pour mériter le statut de créancier privilégié. Ou que, contrairement à la Banque mondiale et au FMI, elles n’accordent pas de prêts à des taux concessionnels. JP Morgan a même averti que les banques de développement africaines pourraient perdre complètement leur statut.

Le débat sur le statut de créancier privilégié des institutions financières multilatérales de développement africaines peut sembler technique. Il ne l’est pas. S’il n’est pas remis en question, il pourrait justifier le maintien des taux d’intérêt élevés auxquels l’Afrique est confrontée sur les marchés internationaux.

Fort de plusieurs décennies de recherche sur les marchés financiers africains et les institutions qui les régissent, je recommande aux gouvernements africains de réaffirmer et de défendre le statut de créancier privilégié des banques multilatérales de développement. Les banques multilatérales de développement africaines doivent également agir collectivement pour défendre leur crédibilité. Et l’Union africaine doit intégrer le statut de créancier privilégié des banques de développement du continent dans son programme de souveraineté financière.

Privilège tacite ou loi

Pour le FMI, la Banque mondiale et le Club de Paris, le statut de créancier privilégié est un privilège tacite. Pour les banques multilatérales de développement africaines, c’est une loi.

Les traités fondateurs de l’Afreximbank, de la Banque africaine de développement et la TDB consacrent explicitement ce statut. Ces traités sont enregistrés en vertu de l’article 102 de la Charte des Nations unies, ce qui les rend contraignants en vertu du droit international. Les États membres africains les ont également ratifiés dans leur législation nationale.

Cela rend le statut des banques multilatérales de développement africaines plus sûr sur le plan juridique que celui des institutions de Bretton Woods. Pourtant, ce sont les banques africaines dont le statut est aujourd’hui qualifié d’« incertain » ou « controversé ».

Les gouvernements africains doivent corriger cette perception. L’Union africaine et ses membres ont déjà approuvé ce principe, mais des déclarations publiques plus fermes et coordonnées sont nécessaires, en particulier de la part des ministres des Finances et des banques centrales. L’objectif sera de rassurer les investisseurs sur le fait que ces protections sont réelles, applicables et soutenues par une volonté politique.

Action collective

Des institutions telles que l’Afreximbank, la BAD, la TDB, la Shelter Afriqué Development Bank et l’Africa Finance Corporation ont connu une croissance rapide. Ensemble, elles détiennent plus de 640 milliards de dollars d’actifs, avec une croissance d’environ 15 % par an. Elles ont mobilisé des milliards sur les marchés financiers mondiaux et ont intensifié leurs activités de prêt lorsque les finances mondiales se sont retirées. Ils se sont diversifiés dans les obligations panda en Chine, prouvant leur résilience et leur capacité à exploiter les marchés financiers non traditionnels.

Leur succès a toutefois suscité une certaine résistance. Les créanciers internationaux et les agences de notation ont commencé à remettre en question leur statut de créancier privilégié, le qualifiant de « faible » ou « fragile ». Cela a des conséquences réelles. Cela affaiblit la confiance des investisseurs. Ceux-ci exigent des rendements plus élevés, ce qui augmente le coût des emprunts pour les banques et, par extension, pour les pays africains, sur la base d’un facteur de risque qui n’existe pas.

Pour contrer cela, les banques multilatérales de développement africaines doivent coordonner leurs réponses. La nouvelle Association des institutions financières multilatérales africaines est une plateforme prometteuse. Elle devrait être plus active et devenir la voix unifiée défendant le statut de créancier privilégié. Elle devrait être utilisée pour émettre des avis juridiques conjoints, dialoguer directement avec les agences de notation et les membres du Club de Paris, et mener des campagnes mondiales d’éducation des investisseurs afin de clarifier le statut juridique et les solides performances des banques multilatérales de développement africaines. Les banques de développement du continent doivent parler d’une seule voix. Le silence laisse les autres défnir leur crédibilité.

La souveraineté financière du continent

La protection du statut de créancier privilégié ne relève pas uniquement de la finance technique. Il s’agit d’une question de souveraineté. L’Afrique est en train de construire son propre écosystème financier grâce à l’Agence africaine de notation de crédit. Les autres institutions financières de l’écosystème, qui ne sont pas encore opérationnelles, sont la Banque centrale africaine, la Banque africaine d’investissement et le Fonds monétaire africain . Leur objectif sera de réduire la dépendance vis-à-vis des acteurs extérieurs et de maintenir le programme de développement de l’Afrique entre les mains des Africains.

Une bataille de perception

La finance mondiale fonctionne sur la base de perceptions façonnées par des récits. Ceux qui contrôlent les récits contrôlent le coût de l’argent. Si le statut de créancier privilégié des banques multilatérales de développement africaines continue d’être déformé, l’accès de l’Afrique à des financements abordables restera otage de l’opinion extérieure plutôt que de la réalité juridique.

Cela affaiblira également les banques africaines de développement au moment même où elles deviennent plus efficaces. Leur capacité à emprunter à des conditions avantageuses et à moindre coût dépend de leur notation de crédit, qui repose sur l’hypothèse qu’elles seront remboursées en premier en cas de difficulté. Si cette hypothèse est remise en cause, les coûts d’emprunt augmenteront.

En réaffirmant la base juridique du statut de créancier privilégié des banques multilatérales de développement africaines, en coordonnant leur réponse et en intégrant ce statut dans le cadre de souveraineté financière de l’UA, les gouvernements africains et les prêteurs multilatéraux de développement peuvent protéger l’un des outils les plus importants pour un financement abordable du développement.

Il ne s’agit pas seulement de défendre des institutions, mais aussi de défendre le droit de l’Afrique à financer son propre avenir à des conditions équitables.

The Conversation

Misheck Mutize est affilié au Mécanisme africain d’évaluation par les pairs de l’Union africaine en tant qu’expert principal en matière de notation de crédit.

ref. L’Afrique doit protéger ses banques de développement contre les discours visant à les affaiblir – https://theconversation.com/lafrique-doit-proteger-ses-banques-de-developpement-contre-les-discours-visant-a-les-affaiblir-269546