Category: Academic Analysis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Harmehak Singh, PhD Candidate in Psychology, Liverpool Hope University

Ever eaten while doom-scrolling and realised you barely tasted anything? Or found your favourite pasta strangely bland after a stressful meeting, yet somehow delicious on a relaxed Saturday evening?

We often think taste comes from ingredients and cooking techniques. But taste isn’t just on the plate. Our emotions, expectations – even the people sitting with us – can shape how food tastes.

This mind-food connection sits at the heart of gastrophysics, a field that studies how our senses, brain and mental states shape our eating experience. Once we know how this works, we can start using simple psychological shifts to make everyday meals taste richer, brighter and more satisfying, without changing a single ingredient.

Mindful eating means paying attention to each bite; noticing flavours, textures, aromas and the sensations in our body as we eat.

But most of us don’t eat like this. We eat while scrolling, replying to messages or watching Netflix in the background. Our attention gets divided, our senses dull and we go into “autopilot” mode. We chew quickly, swallow automatically and miss the subtle flavours and signals from our body telling us we are full. We also lose touch with our body’s hunger cues, which makes overeating more likely. Normally, rising levels of the “hunger hormone” ghrelin and gentle stomach contractions alert us it’s time to eat.

But distraction makes those messages easier to ignore.

Essentially, our body also has a sophisticated system to tell us to stop. As we eat, our stomach stretches, sending “fullness” signals to the brain. At the same time, hormones such as leptin and cholecystokinin are released, creating a feeling of satiety that slowly builds over the course of a meal.

When we’re distracted, we may miss this delicate hormonal conversation.

A 2011 study found that people who played a computer game during lunch felt less full afterwards, remembered less about their meal and snacked more later. Distraction also weakens the memory of eating – and when the brain forgets food, it will seek more food sooner. Appetite, therefore, isn’t just about biology. It’s shaped by our attention and memory too.

Slowing down, on the other hand, improves our sensory awareness. Suddenly, a tomato isn’t just “tomato-y”, it becomes sweet yet tangy, juicy yet firm. Chocolate doesn’t just “taste nice”, it melts slowly, bitter at first, then rich and velvety. Mindfulness acts like turning up the volume on our taste buds.

Mood as a flavour enhancer

Negative emotions such as stress, anxiety and frustration can dull our sensitivity to pleasant flavours. When we’re tense, our body prioritises survival, not enjoyment. Stress hormones narrow our attention, and pleasure-based functions such as flavour appreciation get pushed aside. That’s why food can taste flat when we’re upset.

In one experiment, published in 2021, participants who watched a horror movie felt more anxious and rated juice as less sweet than those who watched a comedy or documentary film. The participants who watched the horror movie even drank more juice than the others – possibly trying to “find” the sweetness their brain was suppressing. These effects may be linked to physiological changes, as anxiety can influence autonomic nervous system activity and hormone levels that affect taste perception and consumption.

When we feel calm, safe and socially connected, the opposite happens. Our brain releases feelgood chemicals such as dopamine and serotonin, and food tastes better. Think of how amazing your favourite food tastes when you’re laughing with friends or eating at a festival.

So if dinner suddenly tastes “off”, the recipe might be fine, your nervous system may just be in a different state. Next time you’ve had a heavy day, try pausing for five minutes before eating. Play soft music, take a few deep breaths, or eat with someone who makes you feel relaxed.

Food is what you think

Before we even taste food, our brain forms predictions about what it should taste like. And those expectations shape what we actually taste.

Visual cues do a lot of this work. We expect red foods to be sweet, green foods to feel bitter or sour, and golden-crisp foods to crunch. The sound of a crisp bite sends a signal to the brain that the food is fresh and satisfying.

Presentation matters too. Fancy plating isn’t just for Instagram. It changes taste perception. In a 2024 study, the shape, size, and colour of the plate shifted how appealing a dessert looked. The features of the plate also affected how much people thought it was worth, and even how modern or traditional it felt. Black plates made desserts seem more premium and exciting, while white plates made them feel more familiar and understated. Even the weight of cutlery changes our experience. Heavier cutlery gives the impression that the food is premium.

Our sense of smell is another factor. When people had their noses blocked with nose clips for an experiment, a sweet drink tasted less intense and less satisfying, showing how aroma shapes the full flavour experience. This is exactly why food feels bland when we have a cold or a blocked nose.

So what does all this mean for your next meal? It means you have more power than you think. Try eating something you love from a nice plate. Notice the colours. We don’t have to wait for a chef’s touch. With a little psychology, we can make everyday meals more satisfying and enjoyable.

Harmehak Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Psychology can change the way food tastes – here’s how to use it to make the most of your meals – https://theconversation.com/psychology-can-change-the-way-food-tastes-heres-how-to-use-it-to-make-the-most-of-your-meals-269212

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kevin Munro, Ewing Professor of Audiology, University of Manchester

If the NHS recommended it, would people test their own hearing at home and use self-fitting hearing aids?

A survey of over 2,000 adults found that nine in every ten said yes, they’d be willing to test their own hearing. Most also said they’d try a hearing aid sent by the NHS – either ready programmed or requiring them to set it up themselves.

Currently, the NHS route involves GPs referring patients for a face-to-face appointment with an audiologist in an NHS hospital, community setting, or increasingly on the high street. But waiting times are long, and services are struggling to meet demand despite staff working hard to help.

Hearing loss is the most common sensory impairment. One in every four adults has a measurable hearing loss, and this increases with age: 40% of people over 40, 50% over 50, and 60% over 60. With an ageing population, these numbers will only grow.

Waiting times reveal how well a health system works. They offer an opportunity to trigger changes that make health services more responsive and put patients first.

Ministers are encouraging people to monitor their own health and want the NHS to use more digital technology and provide care closer to home.

The ten-year health plan for England focuses on three big shifts in healthcare: hospital to home, analogue to digital, and sickness to prevention. As part of the plan, the NHS is examining wearable and other monitoring technologies, including direct-to-consumer hearing aids, to support these shifts.

The survey findings suggest that many adults would welcome this approach.

Various apps and online tests already allow people to assess their hearing at home using smartphones or tablets with regular earphones. However, these vary in quality, and researchers haven’t properly evaluated all of them.

There are also direct-to-consumer hearing aids, sometimes called over-the-counter devices. High-quality large-scale studies are needed to assess how well they work.

Beyond relieving pressure on existing NHS services, home testing could offer patients greater choice, more convenience, immediate results without waiting for appointments, and reduce the medical stigma around hearing loss. It might encourage younger people to seek help when their hearing loss is less severe.

However, the survey revealed genuine concerns that need addressing. People worry about trusting test results and feeling confident they’ve done the testing properly without face-to-face support.

While these self-administered at-home digital solutions work for many people, they won’t suit everyone. Relying solely on digital solutions could unintentionally increase inequality.

People’s ability to use digital solutions is linked to age and education level. This might explain why the survey found that older adults and those who didn’t pursue education after secondary school were less willing to test their hearing at home.

Some people may be willing to try a self-administered at-home solution but need to switch to the traditional face-to-face method if they run into problems. Either way, solutions are needed for the lack of professional support and oversight that comes with self-administered home testing.

Some experts worry that bypassing a hearing professional might create risks for people with ear disease requiring medical intervention. Another common issue is impacted earwax, which can affect hearing or prevent hearing aids from working properly. However, it’s unclear what proportion of adults seeking help for hearing difficulty actually have earwax that needs removing.

Before rolling these findings out into practice, researchers need to check whether the survey results translate into reality and whether the benefits and outcomes match what is currently in place.

In the meantime, the survey suggests that offering a range of options could relieve some pressure on the NHS and make it more sustainable. This would free audiologists to spend their valuable time and resources with the people who need them most.

Kevin Munro does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Most people are happy to do their own hearing tests at home – could it relieve pressure on the NHS? – https://theconversation.com/most-people-are-happy-to-do-their-own-hearing-tests-at-home-could-it-relieve-pressure-on-the-nhs-261878

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Fiona Regan, Full Professor of Chemistry and Director, DCU Water Institute, Dublin City University

For over 200 years, native oysters (Ostrea edulis) have been absent in Dublin Bay. Once abundant along the Irish coast, they thrived in the sheltered estuaries and tidal flats that shaped the city’s maritime life.

Historical records from the 18th and early 19th centuries describe vast oyster beds stretching across the bay. They were a vital food source, a cornerstone of coastal trade and a symbol of Dublin’s connection to the sea. By the mid-1800s, however, the beds had collapsed.

A combination of over fishing, industrial pollution, development, habitat destruction, and disease decimated the population. It left behind only fragments of shell in the sediment as traces of what had once been a thriving marine ecosystem.

Oyster fishing along the Irish south-east coast is well documented. While oyster cultivation, breeding and growing oysters in Ireland dates back to the 13th century, consumption of oysters here has been a tradition for more than 4,000 years. The widespread disappearance of oyster beds mirrored a broader story – the loss of ecological richness that accompanied urban expansion and industrialisation.

Now, through collaborative efforts led by the Green Ocean Foundation, a not-for-profit marine environmental organisation, as well as local volunteers and the Dublin City University Water Institute, the oyster is making a return. The reintroduction of oysters to Dublin Bay represents more than ecological restoration – it’s a revival of cultural heritage and collective memory.

In November 2025, more than 18,000 oysters have returned to the bay as part of a project that goes far beyond species reintroduction. Housed in 300 floating flip baskets, these oysters will breed future generations.

The baskets are connected along a 100-metre line and are flipped at monthly or bi-weekly intervals (depending on the season), and are in a sheltered area of Dun Laoghaire harbour. David Lawlor, co-founder of Green Ocean Foundation, said that the flipping technique allowed birdlife to remove fouling that could otherwise restrict the flow of seawater through the baskets. Overall, this project is showing how oysters can deliver significant benefits for our coasts and environment.

Oysters and clean water

Each new bed seeded in the bay has the potential to restore not just biodiversity. By building a scientifically supported re-introduction project – it can also provide the proof needed that even the most degraded environments can heal when science, policy, and community unite behind a shared vision.

Oysters are nature’s quiet custodians. Each one can filter up to 200 litres of water a day, drawing in microscopic algae, sediments and pollutants, and potentially releasing cleaner water back into their surroundings.

When established, an oyster reef functions like a natural water treatment plant, a living system that not only purifies but also stabilises shorelines, creates habitat for marine life, and buffers against the impacts of coastal erosion.

Researchers are aiming to restore and reimagine the role of the oyster. DCU’s work combines field monitoring, in-situ sensors, chemical analysis and biological assessment to understand how oysters grow and survive under fluctuating environmental pressures, including pharmaceuticals, pesticides, legacy pollutants and microplastics.

By examining oyster health, shell composition, and biochemical responses, researchers are using these organisms as biological indicators of ocean health. They become early-warning sentinels that reveal broader changes in coastal ecosystems.

DCU scientists are assessing how effectively oysters filter contaminants from marine waters. The team quantifies the natural purification capacity of restored reefs by mapping how they move through the oyster’s filtration system. Research suggests that oyster beds can substantially reduce suspended solids and organic pollutants, functioning as nature-based treatment systems that complement, and in some cases rival, engineered approaches.

Below the surface, oyster reefs create complex habitats that support juvenile fish, crabs and seaweeds, helping to rebuild the biodiversity that once characterised Ireland’s estuaries. The project includes efforts to establish a genetic fingerprint for restored populations, enabling researchers to track how restoration influences both water quality and ecological recovery.

In time, advanced tools including non-target contaminant screening, gut microbiome analysis, histology (the study of cell and tissue structure), and molecular diagnostics will be applied to assess oyster health, growth, and stress responses. (Non-target screening uses high-resolution mass spectrometry to detect and identify a broad spectrum of known and unknown contaminants.)

This project is built on collaboration. DCU scientists bring the scientific rigour, ensuring that every action is guided by evidence and long-term impact, and the Green Ocean Foundation has set out a vision for sustainable marine restoration. But perhaps most importantly, the real momentum comes from local volunteers and companies who roll up their sleeves to help.

This fusion of corporate responsibility, citizens, scientists and environmental education is creating a new model for how business and society can work together to tackle environmental recovery.

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Fiona Regan receives funding from Enterprise Ireland.

– ref. Thousands of oysters are being re-introduced to Dublin Bay as nature’s super water cleaners – https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-oysters-are-being-re-introduced-to-dublin-bay-as-natures-super-water-cleaners-269868

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nikhil Datta, Assistant Professor, Economics, University of Warwick

Housing and high rental costs have been a major issue for the UK in the past decade. While other countries have moved towards protections for renters, rent control has not been a widespread feature of the British rental market for over a generation.

But now the new Renters’ Rights Act introduces provisions to protect tenants in England against rent increases. While the UK government says it “does not support the introduction of rent controls”, the act does allow tenants to appeal rent increases if they are above market rents.

Only time will tell whether the act introduces rent control through the back door. In the meantime, the Scottish parliament recently passed landmark housing legislation that will allow for limited rent controls across the country from 2027.

But among economists, rent controls are controversial. They have the potential for unintended consequences – including, ultimately, housing shortages. However, fears were raised about the unintended consequences of a proposed minimum wage three decades ago. Today, the policy is generally seen as having avoided the negative impact on employment that was once feared.

Rent control reliably offers short-term protection for sitting tenants, curbing their need to move away in the face of price pressures and keeping rents lower in covered properties.

But landlords often adjust in ways that shrink the regulated rental stock, selling properties on to owner-occupiers or converting them into short-term lets. This was the experience in San Francisco, where landlords responded by reducing the number of rent-controlled units.

Berlin’s rent freeze seemed to have similar effects, briefly pushing down regulated asking rents, which coincided with a fall in the number of rental listings.

Evidence from Catalonia in Spain, however, paints a more optimistic picture. Average rents there fell by around 4%-6% without any detectable fall in supply.

Classic economic theory – and evidence – highlight another set of risks: mis-allocation (where homes don’t go to those who could benefit most from them) and under-maintenance of properties within the controlled sector. When strict controls were abolished in Cambridge, Massachusetts, property values jumped sharply both for previously controlled homes and those that had never been subject to rent controls.

This suggests there were negative consequences from regulated properties on others in the neighbourhood, possibly driven by under-maintenance reducing overall neighbourhood appeal.

Overall, reviews of academic studies suggest that the outcome depends on the shape the policy takes – things like whether new-builds are exempt, if rents can rise between tenancies and whether controls are indexed and enforced.

Yet the broad pattern is clear: rent control tends to protect tenants in the short run. But in the longer run, supply responses often shift the pressure on to those still searching for a home.

So, what can we learn from economic analysis? The Renters’ Rights Act does not limit rents for new contracts, but seeks to regulate rent increases for incumbent tenants. Given the abolition of section 21 (“no-fault”) evictions, this is necessary to prevent landlords from raising rents far above the market rate to force tenants out.

Some economic models suggest it is reasonable to regulate rent increases for sitting tenants. Renters who are already in a property are typically less price-sensitive than those searching on the open market. They may have attachments to their homes – proximity to work and schools, or community ties, for example – and moving would be costly.

As a result, landlords may hold greater power over these tenants. Consequently, the legislation aims to ensure that tenants do not face rent increases beyond what landlords could obtain on the open market.

Theory vs practice

While well-intentioned, there are concerns when it comes to the design of rent control. A key worry is the uncertainty around what the “market rate” actually is.

If a tenant believes a rent increase exceeds that, they will be able to challenge it through the UK’s tribunal system. Right now, the first-tier tribunal hears very few cases – but an increase in complaints could overburden the system.

At present, market rent is determined by looking at properties in the area and is decided by a judge or surveyor. But this setup comes with challenges.

Homes have many dimensions that people value differently. This makes predicting what a property would rent for on the open market far from straightforward. Even surveyors valuing homes for sale tend to deviate by around 10% in either direction from actual prices. Machine learning models perform no better.

As a result, judgements could have a “luck of the draw” element for both tenants and landlords, raising issues of consistency and transparency. These problems will be even more acute for unique properties.

Finally, there is the issue of access. Evidence shows that lower-income or otherwise disadvantaged people are less likely to use formal tribunal processes.

These challenges do not mean the policy should be abandoned. But careful design could ease pressure on the judicial system and improve transparency.

One option would be to introduce a commitment mechanism for rent increases. Under this approach, if a landlord raised the rent and the tenant felt it was unfair and chose to leave, the tenant could complain to a proposed new ombudsman or tribunal.

The tribunal’s role would be limited. It would record the complaint and later review the rent agreed in the next tenancy for that property. If it was lower, the landlord would pay the former tenant compensation.

This mechanism would encourage landlords to set rent increases only at levels they genuinely believe the market will bear.

Ultimately, the success of rent regulation will depend less on the principle and more on the details of its design and enforcement. A system that protects tenants without freezing supply or overburdening the courts will need clear rules, credible oversight and realistic expectations of the “market rate”.

The Renters’ Rights Act represents a bold attempt to rebalance power in favour of the tenant. But its implementation will determine whether it provides stability for renters and improves the market, or simply adds a layer of uncertainty for both sides.

Nikhil Datta receives, or has received funding from the Nuffield Foundation, British Academy, Leverhulme Trust and the Economic and Social Research Council.

Jan David Bakker has received funding from the BA/Leverhulme Trust, the PRIN and the PNRR.

– ref. Could new tenants’ rights usher in rent controls? Here’s why that wouldn’t necessarily be a positive – https://theconversation.com/could-new-tenants-rights-usher-in-rent-controls-heres-why-that-wouldnt-necessarily-be-a-positive-268827

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Charlotte Goodburn, Reader in Chinese Politics and Development, King’s College London

The UK government is promoting its plan for a new digital identity scheme as a way to streamline services, prevent fraud and ensure that welfare benefits reach only those entitled to them. The prime minister, Keir Starmer, has argued that digital ID is central to modernising the welfare state and tightening immigration controls.

On his recent trip to India, Starmer praised the country’s Aadhaar programme, the world’s largest digital ID system, as a “massive success”. The UK government has cited Aadhaar’s role in “reducing fraud and leakages in welfare schemes”.

But my ongoing research on India’s digital identity registration suggests that large-scale efficiency can come at significant social cost.

Aadhaar was launched in 2009, giving every Indian resident a unique 12-digit number, linked to demographic and biometric information. Its stated aim was to eliminate duplication in welfare distribution and make the system more efficient.

Fifteen years on, however, the results tell a different story. Millions of people have lost access to subsidised food, pensions and wages for public projects, sometimes for months or years at a time.

This was not because they were ineligible for the benefits, but because they failed to satisfy the system’s rigid digital conditions. These problems are ongoing.

Officials claim that Aadhaar has saved billions of rupees in welfare spending, by removing people who didn’t qualify. But research by economist Reetika Khera and colleagues shows that much of the reduction in beneficiary numbers came from the removal of legitimate claimants whose records could not be verified.

For many households, the shift to Aadhaar-linked benefits meant replacing decisions by local officials with automation. To collect subsidised food, recipients must have their number regularly authenticated online.

When internet connections fail, names are misspelt or data not updated, access can be cancelled. The same applies to pension payments and employment schemes, where officials are no longer able to override computer-generated rejections.

Read more:
Digital ID cards: what are they and how will they help the UK deal with illegal immigration?

The effects have been severe. In Jharkhand state, an 11-year-old girl reportedly died from starvation after her family’s access to food rations was cancelled for not being linked to Aadhaar. Other deaths have been reported after households were struck from welfare lists because of data errors or missed deadlines. The victims were not impostors, but the system’s intended beneficiaries.

Digital exclusion through Aadhaar has specific impacts on women. Where their identities are linked to the mobile numbers or bank accounts of male relatives, they cannot independently authenticate their benefits, and lose access when relationships change.

Though such effects may be less pronounced in the UK, the same principle applies: digital identity systems tend to replicate existing social hierarchies.

The problem with Aadhaar is not technology alone, but how it interacts with existing institutions. Local bureaucrats are essential to making social assistance work. However, automation has curtailed their roles. Digital systems may reject applications or delay payments, while claimants are left without clear channels for appeal.

In the northwestern state of Rajasthan, thousands of pensioners went unpaid for months because errors in their Aadhaar registration were fixable only by authorities in the state capital.

Where automation replaces local, human assistance, those least able to navigate the systems – the poor, the elderly, the less literate – are most likely to lose out.

Data mobility and migration

One of Aadhaar’s stated aims was to make identity portable, allowing Indian citizens to claim benefits nationwide. In practice, this mobility has proved hard to achieve. People commonly lose access when moving between states, because data is not synchronised across administrative systems.

Making digital data mobile across bureaucracies is technically complex and socially consequential. Internal migrants and refugees can fall through the gaps. For example, people who had recently moved were unable to access COVID-19 treatment and vaccination for lack of locally-accepted Aadhaar.

Proposals indicate the UK’s system will connect tax, welfare and employment databases. Even in a smaller, more centralised state like the UK, similar issues of data mobility may arise if information has to flow between departments like the Department for Work and Pensions, HMRC and local authorities. A 2025 government review identified fragmentation of UK data systems as a key obstacle to policy coordination.

In India, as in the UK today, the introduction of digital ID was partly shaped by fears around cross-border migration. But here again the impacts have been troubling.

In the border state of Assam, concern over irregular entry from Bangladesh has blurred the line between identity verification and citizenship. Residents who fail to match records across Aadhaar and the National Register of Citizens, often due to minor discrepancies, have been excluded from both welfare and healthcare. For many, this has created a state of administrative limbo: neither formally foreigners nor recognised citizens.

It is not yet clear to what extent Britain’s proposed digital ID will use biometric data, and the country’s welfare system is structurally different from India’s. Yet the underlying rationale is similar, as are the governance issues.

If the UK looks to systems like Aadhaar for inspiration, it should also take into account the challenges. Otherwise, it risks launching a system where those with unstable housing, irregular employment or limited digital literacy may be excluded. And, as in India, errors and mismatches will likely affect those least able to contest them.

Charlotte Goodburn received research funding from The British Academy/Leverhulme (SG162863) for her project “Rural-urban migration and regimes of registration: comparing China and India”.

– ref. The UK has praised India’s digital ID system – but it’s locked millions out of their legitimate benefits – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-has-praised-indias-digital-id-system-but-its-locked-millions-out-of-their-legitimate-benefits-268020

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ellen Ruth Kujawa, Coastal Change Research Fellow, University of Hull; University of Cambridge

Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica in late October, killed dozens in Haiti and forced nearly three-quarters of a million Cubans to evacuate. The death toll across the region is still unknown – but Melissa will go down as one of the strongest storms ever recorded.

It also represents a bellwether for a new era of dangerous hurricanes, driven by climate change. These storms are becoming increasingly violent and harder to predict.

Melissa’s devastation may look like a story of wind and water, but it speaks to a broader question of climate justice: who gets access to life-saving information when a storm strikes? Accurate forecasts gave the governments and residents of Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba time to prepare. This was particularly crucial, as Melissa intensified rapidly from a moderate storm to a major hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Climate change is increasing the frequency of such rapidly intensifying storms. It’s also making them harder to predict. So it’s bad news that the Trump administration is cutting funding for the state-run National Weather Service (NWS) and pushing for the privatisation of government agencies.

The potential decrease in forecast quality this foreshadows will not be borne equally. Hurricanes don’t treat all places uniformly – and neither do NWS forecasts. In my research on hurricane forecasting across the Caribbean, I’ve found that these inequalities already shape how different places receive and use lifesaving information.

Puerto Rico

Melissa underlined just how essential high-quality hurricane forecasts are – allowing officials in the Caribbean precious time to prepare for the storm’s arrival. But my research in Puerto Rico shows that the production and distribution of hurricane forecasts in the Caribbean is more complicated – and more entangled with issues of justice – than it might appear.

Over two years of interviews with meteorologists and emergency managers, I found that Puerto Rican decision-makers perceive – with some supporting evidence, including delays in information availability and deferred equipment maintenance – that their island is marginalised in terms of the forecasts it receives.

Meteorology is often framed as an objective science, but it is deeply political, embedded within systems of state power – and my research suggests that Puerto Rico’s second-tier colonial status extends to its access to forecast knowledge.

Puerto Rico’s vulnerability was widely discussed after Hurricane Maria devastated the island in 2017, killing nearly 3,000 people. The island’s vulnerability to hurricanes well known – between 1851 and 2019, nine major hurricanes made landfall in Puerto Rico, the third-highest number of major hurricanes in the Caribbean. Decades of infrastructural neglect, economic austerity and political powerlessness have compounded that vulnerability.

Forecasts are crucial to decision-making in Puerto Rico. They inform evacuations and requests for federal aid, and they help to plan how to protect critical infrastructure. But their usefulness differs from that of mainland forecasts. As one Puerto Rican meteorologist told me: “A perfect forecast for [the continental United States] is between five to ten miles; five to ten miles for us can be disaster or not disaster.”

Puerto Rico’s small size means that even a ten-mile error in a hurricane’s predicted track can be the difference between a near miss and a catastrophic landfall. For Puerto Rico, a track error that barely matters for a continental state can spell the difference between a glancing blow and a direct hit. In other words, what counts as a “perfect forecast” for a mainland state looks very different for a small island.

Inequality in forecasting

But the issues go deeper than this. Puerto Rican meteorologists told me the forecasts they receive are designed primarily to be applicable to the continental US and later adapted for Caribbean islands. One meteorologist told me: “Mostly it’s us here by ourselves.” Many believe the forecasts they receive are inferior to those that their counterparts use in the continental US, and that they receive less institutional support from the NWS.

When people making life-and-death decisions doubt the quality of the data they rely on, the resulting uncertainty has the potential to undermine both their confidence and public trust.

And there is evidence to justify decision-makers’ doubts. Puerto Rico received storm surge maps – maps of likely storm-generated increases in coastal water levels in 2017, several years after the continental US. Hawaii received them at the same time, suggesting the delay stems from island geography rather than territorial status.

Puerto Rico’s on-island radar unit, which failed as Hurricane Maria made landfall, had been flagged for maintenance in 2011, six years before Maria hit. Interviewees suggested to me that the unit would have been repaired or replaced more quickly in the continental US.

These examples suggest that inequality in forecasting isn’t just perceived – it’s demonstrable: from delayed storm-surge maps to neglected radar maintenance. Forecasts may appear objective and technical, but they are inseparable from their political and institutional contexts. Puerto Rico depends on hurricane forecasts but in practice, does not receive the same level of meteorological knowledge as the continental US.

The Trump administration has already proposed cuts and restructuring that would reduce funding for public forecasting and expand the role of private weather firms. This risks prioritising profit over public safety. It’s particularly dangerous in an above-average hurricane season, and seems likely to worsen as the Trump administration continues to push for decreased funding to the NWS.

When political pressure narrows the NWS remit, vulnerable places such as Puerto Rico risk losing the early warnings they depend on. Storms such as Hurricane Melissa and Hurricane Maria test the capacity of governments and institutions to act on forecast knowledge.

But that knowledge is not neutral. Forecasts do more than predict weather – their prioritisation effectively determines whose safety counts most. As hurricanes intensify in the region, the fairness of forecast systems – who they protect, and who they neglect – will become one of the defining questions of climate justice.

Ellen Ruth Kujawa received funding from a Cambridge Trust Scholarship, and grants from the Cambridge Department of Geography, the Worts Traveling Scholars Fund, the Smuts Memorial Fund, and the Mount Holyoke College Alumnae Association.

– ref. Why some places get better storm warnings than others – and what that means for Puerto Rico – https://theconversation.com/why-some-places-get-better-storm-warnings-than-others-and-what-that-means-for-puerto-rico-269064