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March 12, 2026

We study pandemics, and the resurgence of measles is a grim sign of what’s coming

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jennifer B. Nuzzo, Professor of Epidemiology and Director of the Pandemic Center, Brown University

The U.S. eliminated measles in 2000, but the disease is once again circulating around the country. Marina Demidiuk/iStock via Getty Images Plus

In the three decades between 1993 and 2024, measles in the U.S. was relatively rare – a few hundred cases each year, at most. But suddenly, the disease has become so entrenched in American life that it sometimes fails to make headlines when a new outbreak erupts.

As of March 2026, measles has been continuously circulating around the U.S. for more than a year, starting with an outbreak in Texas that lasted from January to August 2025. Before that outbreak was declared over, an outbreak on the Utah and Arizona border began in August and is ongoing. An outbreak in South Carolina began in September, drastically increased in January 2026, and continues.

Thirty states have had measles cases this year; 47 have seen cases since the start of 2025. Health officials across the U.S. have confirmed 1,300 infections already this year as of March 6, putting the country on track to surpass 2025’s numbers, which were the highest in 35 years.

We study outbreak preparedness and response at Brown University’s Pandemic Center, and we view the return of measles in the U.S. as a grim signal of what’s to come.

Low levels of vaccination across the country mean measles outbreaks will continue to occur, needlessly hospitalizing and killing the unvaccinated. But beyond these harms, the disease’s resurgence serves as a serious warning about the country’s capacity to manage infectious disease threats of all kinds.

An eliminated disease returns

Measles’ return is no mystery: At its root is the falling vaccination rate.

Around 90% of the U.S. population has received the MMR vaccine, which protects against measles, mumps and rubella, and in some regions of the country, the rate is below 60%. Since about 2019-2020, that overall number has dropped below the 95% needed for herd immunity. It is necessary to keep that rate nationally, but maintaining herd immunity at the local level is equally important in order to prevent measles from finding pockets of unvaccinated communities.

Measles can have serious long-term health consequences.

Countries that remain free of continuous transmission for 12 months are deemed to have eliminated measles – a designation the U.S. achieved in 2000. The Pan American Health Organization was scheduled to decide in April whether the U.S. should lose that designation, but the organization postponed its meeting until November.

Current trends suggest that both the U.S. and Mexico, which has also been battling the disease, may lose this status – as Canada did in November 2025. All three countries have seen their vaccination rates fall below the 95% threshold, and their outbreaks may share epidemiological links.

A serious, long-term threat to US health

By any measure, the ongoing U.S. measles outbreaks signal that the disease has returned in a way that will have serious adverse health consequences. In 2025, three people died from measles in the U.S. That is more than in any year since the disease’s elimination 25 years ago.

Of the country’s 2,283 confirmed measles cases in 2025, 11% were sick enough to be hospitalized. In South Carolina, where most measles cases have been reported in 2026, hospitals don’t have to report when patients are admitted due to measles complications, so the actual number of hospitalizations due to measles could be much higher.

People who recover from measles can experience complications such as pneumonia, which can lead to death, or encephalitis, which can later lead to deafness or intellectual disabilities from the brain swelling. The virus can also affect the immune system, making people more susceptible to other infections over the long term, even ones they’ve had before.

In rare instances – though more likely if someone is infected as a child – measles patients can develop a progressive dementia known as subacute sclerosing panencephalitis, or SSPE, anywhere from two to 10 years after their infection. SSPE always leads to death. This past year, a school-age child in Los Angeles died of this condition years after being infected with measles as an infant, before they were old enough to be vaccinated.

Measles is an economic scourge

Recurring outbreaks of measles in the U.S. will mean high economic costs. Countries have pursued measles elimination in part because of the clear economic benefits of stopping domestic transmission of the virus.

Studies have found that the cost of containing measles outbreaks is often as much as tens of thousands of dollars per case. One outbreak in Washington state in 2018-2019, which involved 72 cases – a small outbreak compared with what states are reporting now – cost US$3.2 million for the public health response, medical expenses and productivity losses. The Common Health Coalition found that a sustained 1% drop in MMR coverage would cost the U.S. billions across health care systems and the economy.

A sign in front of a mobile health vehicle asks people not to enter if they are experiencing measles symptoms. — Controlling a measles epidemic, like the one in South Carolina that started in 2025, can cost millions of dollars.
Sean Rayford/Stringer, Getty Images News

An opening for infectious disease

As concerning as recent outbreaks of measles have been, they herald a larger systemic problem.

How a country controls measles can be viewed as a proxy for how well it would control many other diseases. That’s because the steps for stopping the spread are the same: deploying vaccines to prevent infections, detecting and isolating cases when they occur, identifying exposed contacts of infected people and making sure they stay home if they’re likely to be contagious, and treating sick people safely.

But besides measles, we’ve already seen infections that were once controlled, like whooping cough, that rose sharply in 2024 and remained high in 2025 compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic.

That’s because controlling the spread of many infectious diseases depends on the public’s trust in the basic components of public health. Declining MMR vaccine coverage reveals underlying challenges in public support for vaccines. Public confidence in the current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also eroding, according to polling from 2023 to early 2026 by the health policy organization KFF. Less than half of the people polled trust the government even “a fair amount” to provide reliable vaccine information.

These growing cracks in the country’s public health armor will complicate efforts to protect Americans from future disease threats – whether an outbreak, a pandemic or a biological attack.

Jennifer B. Nuzzo receives general research funding from the Gates Foundation, Wellcome, and NTI, to support general policy and practice research on infectious disease trends, science and practice. This support is not specific to the topic covered by this piece.

Andrea Uhlig does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We study pandemics, and the resurgence of measles is a grim sign of what’s coming – https://theconversation.com/we-study-pandemics-and-the-resurgence-of-measles-is-a-grim-sign-of-whats-coming-275059

March 12, 2026

As Iran war expands, some conservative Christians interpret the conflict through biblical prophecies

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Shalom Goldman, Professor Emeritus of Religion, Middlebury College

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran on March 7, 2026. Sasan/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

As the American and Israeli war with Iran unfolds, some American Christians are speaking of the conflict in biblical terms, mapping end-time prophecies on to current events in the Middle East.

In a sermon on March 1, 2026, for example, John Hagee, founder of Christians United for Israel, described the war as part of a divine plan. “Prophetically, we’re right on cue,” he said. Later, he prayed that “God Almighty is brought onto the battlefield and the enemies of Zion and the enemies of the United States can be destroyed before our eyes. Let God arise and let his enemies be scattered.”

Meanwhile, Christian singer and activist Sean Feucht referred to “the end-time open doors of what (God) is going to do in Iran when this regime is prayerfully removed.”

This type of apocalyptic thought has roots in the 19th century, when many American preachers turned toward more literal readings of the Bible. Those readings also emphasized the Bible’s account of God promising the “Holy Land” to Abraham and his descendants. But Christian Zionism’s influence on politics has grown over the past half-century, as I write about in my book “Zeal for Zion.” Today, that mindset seems to be moving into the halls of the American government and the military.

End of an age

“Dispensationalism” is a Protestant idea that human history is divided into different ages, or dispensations, that each unfold God’s plan for the world. Churches that embrace it, which tend to be evangelical, believe that the current dispensation is coming to an end. But that time can be ushered in only by great suffering, a period known as “Jacob’s tribulations.” Israel is the place where they believe these tribulations will begin, and where they will culminate in Jesus’ Second Coming.

In the U.S., the most powerful manifestation of dispensationalist and apocalyptic thought is Christian Zionism. The term refers to many Christians’ strong support for Israel, rooted in the biblical account of God’s covenant with the Hebrew people.

Even before Israel was established, conservative evangelicals have long been enamored of the idea of a Jewish return to Zion. In the 1940s, Protestant emphasis on these biblical narratives influenced American public opinion and helped make the case for a Jewish state.

But in the first two decades of Israel’s history, from 1948-68, fundamentalist Christians had few direct allies among either Israeli or American Jews. Neither evinced much interest in working with conservative Christians, some of whom were involved in missionary work. Why would Jewish groups ally themselves with Christians seeking to convert them?

Turning point

The outcomes of Israel’s 1967 war with a coalition of Arab states changed that situation. From Syria, Israel conquered and occupied the Golan Heights; and from Jordan, East Jerusalem and the West Bank of the Jordan. From Egypt, Israel won the Sinai Peninsula, from which it eventually withdrew, and the Gaza Strip.

As Israeli journalist Gershom Gorenberg noted, “The Six Day War did more than create a new political and military map in the Middle East. It also changed the mythic map, in a piece of the world where myths have always bent reality.”

A black and white photo shows the backs of three men in military uniforms facing a wall of large, rough stone blocks. — Israeli soldiers pray at the Western Wall after the capture of Jerusalem during the Six Day War in June 1967.
ullstein bild/ullstein bild via Getty Images

In some evangelicals’ view, Israel’s victories in the Arab-Israeli wars were the triumph of divinely ordained good over evil. For them, God’s plan in history, revealed to humanity in the Bible, was now unfolding in the Holy Land. Many conservative Christians view the Jewish return to Israel as a prelude to the Second Coming.

This theology had appeared before the 1967 war. But afterward, it placed its hope on the fulfillment of a quite specific scenario: that the government of the Jewish state would rebuild the ancient Temple in Jerusalem and thus set the stage for the end of days. With the return of Jesus, the historic mission of the Jewish people would be fulfilled. Many Jews would perish, and the remnants would become the vanguard of believers in Jesus.

This scenario, once promoted by small groups within some Protestant denominations, had by the 1990s become widely diffused in popular culture. The “Left Behind” series, apocalyptic novels inspired by the biblical Book of Revelation, sold over 80 million copies.

A brown-haired main in a suit grins as he sits at a table in front of a large crowd inside. — Tim LaHaye, co-author of the ‘Left Behind’ series, signs books in a Christian book store in Spartanburg, S.C., in 2004.
David Howells/Corbis via Getty Images

After the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, hostility toward Islam also fueled Christian conservatives’ support for Israel. Televangelist Pat Robertson, for example, said Islam was “violent at its core.”

Around the same time, in a significant political shift, many American Jewish organizations welcomed Christian Zionists’ support. As Israel’s treatment of Palestinians attracted more criticism, the Israeli government and some Jewish groups in the U.S. began to rethink their relationship to conservative Christians.

In 2002, the Anti-Defamation League, an advocacy group that has historically promoted liberal and civil rights causes, took out an ad in major American newspapers. In that ad it reprinted a statement by Ralph Reed, former head of the Christian Coalition, which was founded by televangelist Pat Robertson.

Into government

Today, however, it seems Christian Zionism’s influence has risen to a new level in government.

Since the strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, 2026, the Military Religious Freedom Foundation, a watchdog group, reported over 200 complaints about commanders telling troops across branches of the U.S. armed forces that the current war with Iran was part of a divine plan, invoking biblical ideas about the “end times.”

“Anytime Israel or the U.S. is involved in the Middle East, we get this stuff about Christian nationalists who’ve taken over our government, and certainly our U.S. military,” Air Force veteran Mikey Weinstein, the foundation’s president, told The Guardian.

A further sign of Christian Zionism moving into government was the 2025 appointment of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel. Among the most influential and prominent Christian Zionists, Huckabee, a Baptist minister, for years led “Holy Land tours” to Israel.

“I believe it is a special place because God made it special,” Huckabee told conservative Christian activist Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated in September 2025. “I believe the Scripture, Genesis 12: Those who bless Israel will be blessed, those who curse Israel will be cursed. I want to be on the blessing side, not the curse side.”

Shalom Goldman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As Iran war expands, some conservative Christians interpret the conflict through biblical prophecies – https://theconversation.com/as-iran-war-expands-some-conservative-christians-interpret-the-conflict-through-biblical-prophecies-277488

March 12, 2026

‘The Tibetan Book of the Dead’ is actually not just about death

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jue Liang, Assistant Professor of Religious Studies, Case Western Reserve University

Tibetan fabric painting from the 17th or 18th century depicting a Bardo Cycle deity, representing transitional states between death and rebirth in Tibetan Buddhist belief. Dea/ V. Pirozzi/DeAgostini via Getty Images

You’ve seen it in bookstores – the metallic turquoise spine peeking out from the shelf under “Eastern Religions.” Or, perhaps, another of its more understated editions rendered in muted tones. It is “The Tibetan Book of the Dead,” arguably the most well-known Tibetan Buddhist text outside Tibet.

It was first translated by American anthropologist Walter Evans-Wentz in 1927. The book’s philosophy of death and rebirth as spiritual practice was adapted in 1964 by Timothy Leary, the founder of psychedelic studies, to guide psychedelic experiences. Actor Richard Gere narrated the audio version of the book in 2008, helping introduce it to a broad audience.

As someone who studies Tibetan Buddhism, I’m often asked: What is “The Tibetan Book of the Dead”?

Most famous book in Tibetan Buddhism

In the Princeton University series “Lives of Great Religious Books,” there are only two texts representing Buddhism. One is the “Lotus Sutra,” the most popular Buddhist scripture on universal compassion, flexible teaching methods and potential for Buddhahood for all beings; the other is “The Tibetan Book of the Dead.”

Originally, the book was not even called “The Tibetan Book of the Dead” – and this book is not just about death.

The full title of the original Tibetan text from the 14th century translates as “The Great Liberation by Hearing in the Intermediate States.” In Tibetan, it is shortened to “Bardo Thodrol,” which loosely translated to “liberation upon hearing.”

The English title took off with Evans-Wentz’s first translation. But Evans-Wentz translated only a part of the book, and the translation was based on oral commentary rather than the Tibetan text.

The first full translation was done in 2007 by scholar and translator of Tibetan Buddhism Gyurme Dorje. It has been endorsed through an introduction written by the Dalai Lama, the most recognized Tibetan Buddhist leader of our time.

The 11 chapters of the book teach one how to seize every opportunity to become enlightened, even in the least possible place. It all starts with the teaching of bardo.

The six ‘bardos’

The Tibetan word bardo means “intermediate state” or “the state of being in-between.” In its origin in Indian Buddhist teachings, the bardo, or “antarabhava” in Sanskrit, refers to the time period between the end of this life and the beginning of the next.

A painting shows a heavenly vision, with multiple deities seated in concentric circles around a central figure. — A 19th-century Tibetan paining of the bardo shows a vision of peaceful deities.
Musée Guimet via Wikimedia Commons

However, in the Tibetan text “Bardo Thodrol,” there are six bardos: the bardo of living, the bardo of meditative concentration, the bardo of dreams, the bardo of the time of death, the bardo of reality and the bardo of rebirth.

Here, the bardo is no longer limited to the time after death, but refers to meaningful life stages that provide opportunities to transform our consciousness and habitual ways of living.

The bardo of living, as its name suggests, is the time between birth and death in the current lifetime. However, there are other bardos while one is alive: the bardo of meditative concentration and the bardo of dreams.

The bardo of dreams provides a reminder of the illusory nature of things in the dream state; the bardo of meditative concentration is a time to cultivate insight into the nature of things as empty. It prepares one for the inevitable bardo of the time of death.

Bardo of death and enlightenment

Finally, reaching the end of one life, the bardo of the time of death and the bardo of reality occupy the center of attention in the text.

The text “Bardo Thodrol” first discusses physical and mental signs of impending death and how to postpone it. Practices for averting death are based on the theory that human lives exist due to the coming together of natural, supernatural, human and divine elements. Therefore, performing rituals that realign these elements might allow one to delay death temporarily. It also includes rituals and practices to be performed by others after death, so that the dead can still become enlightened in the afterlife.

The deathbed and post-death rituals include performing devotional prayers to peaceful and wrathful deities oneself. The rituals also include requesting others to read the “Bardo Thodrol” to the deceased and post-death meditation by the deceased on the same peaceful and wrathful deities. The text also suggests wearing amulets that bring blessings and aid the transference of consciousness.

These rituals are grounded in the Buddhist and Hindu belief of “samsara”, or cycles of life and death. Here, the post-death period is not the end of all possibilities or a predetermined failure, but another opportunity for liberation in the next life.

Even the bardo of rebirth, where the yet-to-be-enlightened being enters another round of existence in samsara, is not the final point. Buddhists believe that previous interventions, such as prayers, rituals and meditative practice, could still be beneficial in providing better rebirths or positive karmic effects.

Some might see this death-focused meditation as a joyless outlook on life. But many have relied on the notion of the bardo for inspiration. Novelists George Saunders’ 2018 book “Lincoln in the Bardo” and Amie Barrodale’s 2025 “Trip” use the concept of bardo to narrate stories that matter for the living, showing that death is not the end for human relationships.

In “Lincoln in the Bardo,” Saunders, an American writer, imagines the bardo as a space explored by the protagonist, Willie Lincoln, the deceased 11-year-old son of President Abraham Lincoln. Willie finds himself wandering in that space – a cemetery – encountering all kinds of spirits, ghosts and unsettled souls.

In “Trip,” Barrodale, another American novelist, tells the story of a mother who, after her sudden death, travels around the world to search for her son, who was lost at sea with a stranger. Both novels unfold in the post-death realm, where spirits sometimes are believed to speak but are rarely seen.

Lessons from the ‘Bardo Thodrol’

This way of thinking about the process of life as a series of bardos are intended to teach two lessons. One, challenging times, such as death, do not have to be an end point. Rather, if we think of them as a step into something new, we might be able to seize the opportunity to transform ourselves.

The “Bardo Thodrol” teaches its practitioner to recognize the importance of now. It instructs:

Having obtained a previous human body, this one time
I do not have the luxury of remaining on a distracted path.

Two, we live in constantly shifting contexts that require us to adapt accordingly. While the bardo of living calls for “renouncing laziness,” the bardo of dreams invites one to leave behind the “corpse-like, insensitive sleep of delusion.”

In other words, one needs to recognize the appropriate time and place for different practices. For example, a time usually marked by slumber might be countered with diligence, while a time of dedicated attention could be harnessed for deeper reflection.

Even in the bardo of rebirth, where one might be discouraged by the prospect of death, people need to keep in mind that their good actions in past lives could still have a positive effect for the current situation.

Not everyone may believe in samsara, the notion that we live on for innumerable lifetimes. However, the teaching from the “Bardo Thodrol” still applies – the moment of uncertainty or finality is not a source of fear but an opportunity for profound transformation.

Jue Liang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘The Tibetan Book of the Dead’ is actually not just about death – https://theconversation.com/the-tibetan-book-of-the-dead-is-actually-not-just-about-death-247174

March 12, 2026

MPs’ vote against a social media ban didn’t kill the idea – it may have made it easier later

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andy Phippen, Professor of IT Ethics and Digital Rights, Bournemouth University

At first glance, the House of Commons vote on March 9 seemed to send a clear political message. MPs have decided against an amendment from the House of Lords to the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill that would have introduced an outright ban on social media use for under-16s.

The reality is more complicated. Rather than rejecting the idea, MPs have effectively postponed the decision. They’ve also proposed powers that could allow a ban to be introduced later.

The vote was less about the merits of a ban and more about timing. A key reason for the government’s position is that it launched a major consultation on children’s digital wellbeing at the start of March 2025. That consultation is due to run until May. It is asking whether stronger restrictions on children’s access to social media and related technologies are needed.

Because the consultation is still underway, ministers argued that it would be premature to write a specific policy, such as a ban for under-16s, directly into law or, more specifically, directly into primary legislation.

Instead, the government has created a compromise that could potentially be more far reaching. MPs rejected the amendment proposed by the House of Lords that would have created an immediate statutory ban. But they supported an alternative approach that would give the secretary of state the power to introduce new restrictions later through secondary legislation.

The powers in the amendment to the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill supported by the commons would allow ministers to impose restrictions on children’s access to certain digital services. These powers would be introduced as part of the bill, and would allow the government to alter any other existing legislation.

In practical terms, this would create the power to regulate, but not the actual rules themselves at this stage.

If the consultation concludes that the public are calling for stronger protections, and the government agrees, these powers could be far reaching. They could potentially include restricting access to social media platforms for certain age groups, limiting features considered harmful or “addictive”, such as autoplay or endless scroll for young people, strengthening age-verification requirements and potentially addressing access to tools such as Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) that could be used to bypass age controls.

Crucially, these measures would not require a new future act of parliament.

While parliament would still have oversight of such regulations, they typically receive far less parliamentary scrutiny than primary legislation and cannot be amended in the same way. MPs usually have to accept or reject them as they are written, rather than change specific parts.

Building evidence

The current consultation on children’s digital wellbeing is unusually broad. It has a cautiously hands on tone, framing young people’s digital lives as an emerging public-policy problem that may require stronger regulation. Although it formally invites views, the consultation documents largely assume that some form of action is necessary and asks respondents to comment on a range of potential interventions.

Boy with phone — A public consultation is seeking opinions on children’s use of social media.
carballo/Shutterstock

It covers a diverse range of digital topics currently in the public eye, such as social media, gaming platforms and AI chatbots. It asks for opinions on whether there is concern and where stronger age-based restrictions should be introduced. It is not simply asking whether action should be taken, but how.

Therefore, should the consultation responses support stricter controls, this raises the possibility that it may ultimately pave the way for a ban or similar restrictions, and the government needs the framework to be able to do this.

Regulatory strategy

Governments can pass framework legislation that gives ministers flexible powers, rather than specifying detailed rules immediately. There is a view that this makes the legislation more flexible in the emergence of new technologies and allows policymakers to respond to technological and political developments without needing to pass new laws each time the regulatory landscape changes.

In this case, the commons has effectively created the legal infrastructure for future restrictions while avoiding committing to them immediately.

Introducing a ban in primary legislation while the consultation is still gathering evidence would have risked undermining the process or making the consultation something of a lame duck. By granting ministers regulatory powers instead, MPs have ensured that the issue can be revisited once the consultation concludes.

Whether those powers are ultimately used to introduce a ban remains to be seen. And at the present time the changes will have to be passed back to the Lords for agreement (sometimes called “parliamentary ping pong”). There is a chance the Lords will ask for further amendments, but it is likely that this will not take long and the bill could reach assent by Easter. However, whether these measures will be effective in their goals will require long term analysis. But the political and legal groundwork is now been laid.

The debate about children, social media and regulation is far from over. If anything, the commons vote signals that the next phase of that debate is only just beginning.

Andy Phippen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. MPs’ vote against a social media ban didn’t kill the idea – it may have made it easier later – https://theconversation.com/mps-vote-against-a-social-media-ban-didnt-kill-the-idea-it-may-have-made-it-easier-later-278116

March 12, 2026

Hearing loss is often called a dementia risk factor – here’s what the research really shows

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emma Broome, Senior Research Fellow, University of Nottingham

Hearing loss and dementia affect millions of people worldwide. But headlines describing hearing loss as the “leading mid-life risk factor” for dementia can be misleading. They often oversimplify complex science, and risk confusing people who are trying to understand what hearing loss can mean for brain health.

Research shows that hearing loss and cognitive decline frequently occur together. Cognitive decline refers to worsening memory and thinking skills.

While these two conditions are linked, we still do not fully understand why. Several biological and social factors are likely to be involved, and they probably interact in complex ways. What we do not yet have is clear evidence that hearing loss directly causes dementia.

Hearing loss is extremely common. Around 430 million people worldwide live with disabling hearing loss, and this number is expected to rise to more than 700 million by 2050. Dementia affects 57 million people globally, with prevalence increasing with age. As populations live longer, more people will experience one or both conditions.

Some of the confusion arises from how dementia risk is calculated and reported. Age and genetics account for much of overall risk, alongside factors such as cardiovascular health, education and social isolation. Hearing loss is one part of this broader picture, which means its role can be misinterpreted when statistics are presented without context.

Another source of misunderstanding is how research findings are described. The Lancet commission on dementia uses a measure called the “population attributable fraction”. This estimates how many dementia cases might be linked to a particular factor, in this case hearing loss. It does not mean that a person with hearing loss will develop dementia.

The figure reflects both how common hearing loss is, and how strongly it is associated with dementia. Because hearing loss is so widespread, it can appear to account for a large proportion of cases at population level, even though the individual risk for most people remains relatively modest.

Clear communication is therefore essential. Hearing aids and other devices should not be promoted as guaranteed ways to prevent dementia. Their main value lies in the broader benefits they provide, including improved communication, stronger social connections and better quality of life. These factors can support cognitive health, but they are not proven protective treatments.

Overstating the link between hearing loss and dementia may create unrealistic expectations. It may also discourage some people from seeking help because of stigma – particularly if hearing loss becomes framed primarily as an early sign of cognitive decline, rather than as a common and treatable condition.

How hearing loss might affect the brain

Researchers have proposed several ways in which hearing loss could influence cognitive decline. Hearing difficulties do not simply make conversations harder. They can also alter how the brain processes information.

When sounds are difficult to hear, the brain must work harder to interpret them. This increased effort may leave fewer mental resources available for memory and thinking. Over time, reduced sound input may also affect how certain brain regions function, similar to how a muscle weakens when it is used less.

Hearing difficulties can also affect social participation. Struggling to follow conversations may lead to withdrawal, loneliness or depression, all of which are linked to a higher risk of dementia. At the same time, shared underlying factors such as ageing, vascular disease and genetics may contribute to both hearing loss and dementia.

The picture is complex. These processes are likely to interact differently across people and stages of life, meaning dementia risk is highly individual rather than uniform.

Can hearing aids prevent dementia?

Hearing aids and cochlear implants improve access to sound. However, evidence that they prevent dementia or significantly slow cognitive decline remains limited.

Clinical trials have generally been small and inconclusive, while observational studies show mixed results. Some suggest slower cognitive decline among long-term hearing aid users, but these studies cannot fully account for other influences such as health status, education or income.

That does not mean hearing aids are unimportant. They can make a substantial difference to daily life by helping people follow conversations, remain socially connected and maintain independence. For people already living with dementia, improved hearing can support communication and wellbeing.

Hearing loss often occurs alongside dementia, and when unaddressed it can reduce the effectiveness of other forms of support. Difficulty hearing can make group activities, therapy sessions and social programmes harder to engage with. By improving access to sound, hearing aids may help people benefit more fully from existing care.

Most research on hearing loss and dementia has been carried out in high-income countries. Many studies exclude minority ethnic groups, people in lower-income settings and those living in care homes. This matters because the risk, experience and management of both conditions vary across populations.

Around 80% of people with hearing loss live in low and middle-income countries, and the fastest growth in dementia is expected in these same regions. Without more inclusive research, understanding will remain incomplete and interventions may fail to reach those who need them most.

The relationship between hearing loss and dementia is still evolving. What is clear is that hearing loss affects far more than just cognition. Supporting people to hear better can help them stay connected, engaged and independent. These benefits matter at every stage of life.

Emma Broome receives funding from an NIHR Development and Skills Enhancement Awards (NIHR306142) and a research grant from WS Audiology A/S.

– ref. Hearing loss is often called a dementia risk factor – here’s what the research really shows – https://theconversation.com/hearing-loss-is-often-called-a-dementia-risk-factor-heres-what-the-research-really-shows-276246

March 12, 2026

Nicotine: the latest wellness hack

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

If you spend any time on social media, you may have noticed a curious trend: wellness influencers singing the praises of nicotine. Not smoking or vaping but nicotine patches and pouches, repackaged as cognitive enhancers, productivity boosters and even weight-loss aids. But does the science support this rebrand, or are we watching a familiar substance undergo a very modern makeover?

Nicotine is primarily a stimulant and derived from the tobacco plant. Small amounts of nicotine are also found in other members of the nightshade family, including tomatoes, aubergines, potatoes and green peppers. However, the levels in these foods are minimal compared with those in tobacco.

Nicotine works by latching on to specific receptors found throughout the body, triggering the release of various brain chemicals such as dopamine, noradrenaline, and serotonin. These receptors, along with a chemical messenger called acetylcholine, play an important role in attention, learning and memory.

The evidence on whether nicotine can enhance cognitive performance is mixed. One large review of 41 trials involving healthy adults – both non-smokers and smokers – found that nicotine produced small improvements in areas such as fine motor skills, attention and aspects of short-term and working memory.

An animal study demonstrated nicotine increased working memory and boosted levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, a protein important for learning and brain resilience. However, other research shows that in healthy non-smokers, nicotine often has neutral or even negative cognitive effects.

This difference comes down to starting point. People who already have cognitive difficulties have more room to improve, while those with healthy brain function are already performing close to their best. Because of this, nicotine is unlikely to offer any real benefit to people who don’t have cognitive impairments.

Small experimental studies have explored whether nicotine patches might help people with mild cognitive impairment, with one trial reporting slight improvements in memory test scores over six months. Research suggests nicotine may have protective effects in neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, partly because it reduces inflammation, prevents cell death and supports cognitive function.

Nicotine has also been linked to weight loss and reduced appetite. It appears to influence the parts of the brain that control hunger and makes the body burn more energy by triggering the release of stimulating hormones like adrenaline. While some animal studies suggest nicotine can reduce body weight by speeding up fat burning, there is not yet strong evidence that this holds true in humans

Where nicotine is useful is in smoking cessation. Nicotine replacement therapy is an effective way to help people stop smoking. But this benefit comes from reducing exposure to tobacco smoke, which contains a cocktail of chemicals and cancer-causing agents – not from nicotine itself being healthy.

A woman putting nicotine gum in her mouth. — An effective way to quit smoking.
Andrey_Popov/Shutterstock.com

Highly addictive

Nicotine is not harmless and regular use can lead to dependence. Nicotine activates receptors in the brain that trigger the release of several chemical messengers, including dopamine (the so-called feel-good hormone). This surge in dopamine creates the pleasurable sensations and reinforcement that contribute to nicotine’s addictive effects.

Studies in animals show using nicotine during the teenage years can lead to long lasting changes in the brain and behaviour, including higher risk of other drug use, reduced attention and mood problems.

Teenagers have more nicotine receptors in the brain’s reward areas than adults, which makes nicotine’s effects stronger and the developing brain more vulnerable. Similar effects can be seen in a developing baby during pregnancy.

Common side-effects of using nicotine include nausea, vomiting and headaches. It can also cause more serious heart and blood-vessel harms.

Nicotine triggers the release of chemicals such as adrenaline and noradrenaline, and studies show that higher levels of these can raise heart rate, increase blood pressure and make the heart work harder.

Nicotine also damages the inner walls of blood vessels by causing inflammation, raising blood pressure and disrupting normal blood vessel function. The evidence is clear that no nicotine product is safe for the heart and cardiovascular system – a conclusion now officially backed by major health organisations, including the World Health Organization.

Is nicotine safer without smoke? Yes. Is it safe? No.

Reduced harm is not the same as benefit. The scientific picture is complicated: possible cognitive effects, potential therapeutic avenues, but clear risks and strong addictive potential.

The science does not support using nicotine as a cognitive enhancer or lifestyle supplement for healthy adults. What it does support is using nicotine replacement therapy to help people stop smoking. Outside that context, the risks outweigh the hype. Wellness trends come and go, but addiction is far harder to shake.

Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Nicotine: the latest wellness hack – https://theconversation.com/nicotine-the-latest-wellness-hack-276614

March 12, 2026

Everybody to Kenmure Street: how a feisty Glasgow neighbourhood beat a ‘secret’ immigration raid

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Trish Reid, Professor of Theatre and Performance, University of Reading

The kind of protests that loom large in the collective imagination tend to be compact and dramatic. Everybody to Kenmure Street, Felipe Bustos Sierra’s energising and inspiring film about a spontaneous act of collective civil disobedience in Glasgow, documents just such an event.

At a time when mobile phone footage shared by citizen activists is proving increasingly vital in holding authority to account, it also feels extraordinarily prescient. Most obviously in the US, where the film recently won the world cinema documentary special jury award for civil resistance at the Sundance Film Festival.

Bustos Sierra’s debut was the 2018 documentary Nae Pasaran, about a group of Scottish Rolls-Royce workers who, in 1974, refused to repair jet engines for the Chilean air force in protest against the violent Pinochet regime. It won a Bafta for best feature film. Unsurprisingly, Bustos Sierra handles his material with confidence.

Everybody to Kenmure Street begins with a black and white montage. Children play in the back courts of tenement slums. Suffragettes demand the right to vote. The intense heat of the Glasgow’s blast furnaces sends sparks flying. Crowds march against the installation of a nuclear deterrent on the Clyde. Riveters raise their hammers in synchronised rhythm in the city’s famous ship yards. Glasgow’s industrial heritage and its proud history of protest are established as the film’s backdrop.

As the film moves from black and white to colour, we find ourselves on a tenement-lined street in the Pollokshields area of the city. It is early morning on May 13 2021. An immigration enforcement vehicle has just pulled up on Kenmure Street, and two Indian men have been arrested for possible infringements.

Priti Patel, the UK home secretary, had been aggressively doubling down on the hostile environment promoted by her predecessor Theresa May. The dawn raid had been approved without the knowledge of the Scottish government in Holyrood because immigration legislation and policy are reserved to Westminster. Among other things, then, Everybody to Kenmure Street exposes some of the tensions in the devolution settlement.

This intrusion into one of Scotland’s most ethnically diverse areas, with a large Muslim population, on what also happened to be Eid al-Fitr – the feast day that celebrates the end of Ramadan – was understandably experienced by many as a deliberate provocation.

As Bustos Sierra’s evocative film documents, it quickly becomes the trigger for an extraordinary act of communal resistance. A kind of social media-enabled mass sit down, it results in an eight-hour stand-off with immigration officials and the police, and the eventual release, without charge, of the two men.

Making extensive use of donated mobile phone footage, Bustos Sierra documents the heartwarming combination of improvised tactics and community-based solidarity that won the day from the level of the street itself.

As the day progressed, the number of protestors grew from a handful to dozens, to hundreds and eventually a couple of thousand. Word spread and a number of well-known figures arrived on the scene, perhaps most significantly, the activist and human rights lawyer Aamer Anwar who eventually negotiated the men’s release.

The power of ordinary people

At its most affecting though, Everybody to Kenmure Street is a film about the decency and moral courage of ordinary Glaswegians. Having looked out of their windows and spotted the immigration van, a small number of residents decided to act.

They came out into the street, challenged the officials present, created an obstruction by sitting down, and began texting and posting on social media. Crucially, just after 9am an activist, known only as “Van Man”, crawled under the police vehicle and attached himself to the axle preventing the immigration officers from driving away.

His timely action allowed others to gather, and he was described by many as the hero of the day. Because he wishes to remain anonymous, his words are spoken, here, by the film’s executive producer, the actor and activist Emma Thompson, who looks directly to the camera while adopting a position that echoes the cramped conditions Van Man endured for eight hours.

The Scottish actor Kate Dickie similarly gives voice to the off-duty NHS worker who tended him for most of the day. “The fact that I’m a nurse,” she explains, “gives me a level of protection that other people wouldn’t experience”. It’s difficult to hear her words without thinking of Alex Pretti, the 37-year-old intensive care nurse shot and killed by an ICE agent in Minneapolis, in January of this year.

The absolute horror of events in that city make the dénouement of Bustos Sierra’s film all the more remarkable. Police Scotland, who by the end of the day were in attendance in high numbers, simply agreed to let the men go in order to avert any kind of violent confrontation.

If all this sounds wildly utopian, Bustos Sierra is careful not to allow his adopted home town to become too pleased with itself. Picking up on some of the threads laid down in the opening montage, he uses the middle section to stress Glasgow’s mixed legacies.

While the city’s radical tradition is certainly honoured, from its early opposition to apartheid to its proud history of trades unionism, the film also stresses that its mercantile and industrial wealth, like that of Bristol, Liverpool and London, was built on the labour of enslaved people.

In this way a connection is made between the brown men held in the van, who are victims of an aggressive immigration policy, and the historical victims of colonialism who were also predominantly people of colour.

Given that our news feeds are currently full of images reinforcing the reality that black and brown lives are less grievable than white ones, this connection seems an especially vital one to make. An important film, everybody should see Everybody to Kenmure Street.

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Trish Reid does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Everybody to Kenmure Street: how a feisty Glasgow neighbourhood beat a ‘secret’ immigration raid – https://theconversation.com/everybody-to-kenmure-street-how-a-feisty-glasgow-neighbourhood-beat-a-secret-immigration-raid-275713

March 12, 2026

Demain, le mix électrique français sera-t-il plus « vert » avec ou sans nucléaire ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Bertrand Cassoret, Maître de conférences en génie électrique, Université d’Artois

Au-delà de l’enjeu urgent de la transition énergétique, tous les mix électriques ne se valent pas en termes d’impacts environnementaux. Nous avons procédé à l’analyse de cycle de vie des six scénarios proposés par RTE à l’horizon 2060, avec ou sans construction de nouvelles centrales nucléaires. Le résultat ? Hors risque d’accident, les scénarios comportant le plus de nucléaire apparaissent comme les moins mauvais pour l’environnement.

Quel mix de production d’électricité décarbonée est le plus écologique ? Répondre à cette question n’est pas si évident. La production d’énergie, à l’échelle d’un pays, ne s’improvise pas : la troisième programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE3), dévoilée en février 2026, a en ce sens fixé un cadre pour les dix prochaines années.

Or, en fonction des choix de planification opérés et du mix électrique retenu (part de nucléaire, de renouvelables…), le kilowatt-heure n’aura pas la même empreinte environnementale. En nous appuyant sur les six scénarios (en fonction des sources d’énergie composant le mix électrique) retenus par RTE à l’horizon 2060, nous avons mené une analyse de cycle de vie (ACV) de chacun de ces scénarios, récemment publiée dans une revue scientifique.

Selon nos résultats, en fonctionnement normal (c’est-à-dire en excluant les risques de catastrophe environnementale, notamment nucléaire), ce sont les scénarios où la part du nucléaire est la plus élevée qui ont les impacts environnementaux les plus faibles. Pour comprendre ce résultat, il faut d’abord présenter sa construction.

Les scénarios de RTE pour la production d’électricité en 2060

Ils sont le premier élément déterminant du raisonnement. Pour prévoir les besoins de production électrique en France en 2060, RTE a pris pour hypothèse une hausse de consommation de 35 %, en lien avec les besoins d’électrification des usages tels que les transports, le chauffage ou l’industrie.

Parmi les six scénarios, les trois premiers (notés M sur le graphe ci-dessous) n’utilisent pas de nouvelles infrastructures nucléaires en remplacement des réacteurs actuels qui seront probablement fermés en 2060. Les trois scénarios suivants (notés N) s’appuient en revanche sur le « nouveau nucléaire », avec une part de nucléaire allant de 18 à 50 % dans le mix électrique. La part de l’hydroélectricité varie peu, mais l’éolien et le photovoltaïque jouent le rôle de variable d’ajustement entre les différents scénarios.

Sur les six scénarios envisagés par RTE à l’horizon 2060, les trois premiers, notés M, ne postulent pas la construction de nouvelles centrales nucléaires pour remplacer les infrastructures actuelles, qui seront en fin de vie. Les trois derniers, notés N, postulent au contraire le renouvellement du parc nucléaire.
Fourni par l’auteur

Pour un même niveau de consommation électrique, les scénarios sans nucléaire nécessitent davantage de puissance installée. Le scénario M1, qui s’appuie le plus sur le photovoltaïque, requiert plus de deux fois plus d’installations que le scénario N03, qui se base surtout sur le nucléaire. Ceci s’explique par deux raisons.

D’abord, parce que l’éolien et le photovoltaïque ne sont pas pilotables : leur production dépend de la météo. L’éolien et le photovoltaïque ont, en effet, un facteur de charge assez faible : le vent et le soleil ne permettent que rarement une production à pleine puissance. Par exemple, une installation photovoltaïque de 1 000 watts (W) va produire parfois cette puissance l’été, vers midi, mais en moyenne sur l’année, seulement environ 150 W. Il faut donc démultiplier les moyens.
La seconde raison tient au besoin de stockage de cette production intermittente, afin de répondre aux besoins au bon moment. La prospective de RTE considère le stockage par batteries ou par hydrogène, mais les rendements de conversion entraînent, dans les deux cas, des pertes qu’il faut compenser, là aussi en augmentant les capacités installées.

À noter enfin que la fabrication et le recyclage en fin de vie de ces moyens de stockage entraînent des impacts environnementaux supplémentaires.

Des impacts environnementaux tout au long du cycle de vie

Les moyens de production envisagés par RTE ici sont l’éolien, le photovoltaïque, l’hydroélectrique et le nucléaire. Ils n’émettent pas – ou très peu – de polluants et de gaz à effet de serre lors de leur utilisation, comme en atteste le dernier rapport du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (Giec). Ce dernier considère que l’éolien et le nucléaire émettent environ 12 g de CO₂ par kilowattheure (kWh) électrique produit, tandis que le photovoltaïque en émet entre 41 et 48.

Mais la seule comptabilité carbone ne suffit pas : ces sources d’électricité ont des impacts environnementaux notables liés à leur fabrication et leur fin de vie, dont il faut tenir compte. Des études suggèrent que le photovoltaïque au sol (à distinguer des panneaux solaires qui équipent les toitures) peut nécessiter autant de béton que le nucléaire, à production électrique égale. L’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) soulignait par exemple, en 2022, que les panneaux solaires sont de grands consommateurs d’aluminium. Enfin, toujours à production d’électricité égale, il faut davantage d’acier pour l’électricité éolienne que le nucléaire.

Une synthèse d’études d’impacts réalisée en 2021 pour la Commission européenne suggère que l’énergie nucléaire est celle qui aurait le moins d’impacts environnementaux sur un certain nombre de critères.

Il faut enfin tenir compte de la durée de vie des moyens de production. On considère généralement qu’un barrage hydroélectrique dure quatre-vingts ans, une centrale nucléaire soixante ans (même s’il est probable qu’on ira au-delà), un panneau photovoltaïque trente ans et une éolienne vingt-cinq ans.

Reste aussi la question des déchets nucléaires, qui relève, en France, de l’agence nationale pour la gestion des déchets radioactifs (Andra), et que nous n’avons pas couverte dans notre étude.

Quel scénario est le plus écologique ?

L’analyse de cycle de vie est une méthode qui permet d’évaluer les impacts environnementaux depuis l’extraction des matières premières jusqu’à la fin de vie. Elle utilise des bases de données internationales qui permettent de quantifier les consommations de matières premières, énergie, surfaces, déchets. Nous avons utilisé, pour estimer l’impact environnemental de la production d’un kilowattheure d’électricité nucléaire, hydroélectrique, éolienne et enfin photovoltaïque, le logiciel Simapro, associé à la base de données Ecoinvent qui fait référence dans le domaine de l’ACV

Parmi les 11 critères retenus, on retrouve l’épuisement des ressources, le réchauffement climatique, la diminution de la couche d’ozone, la toxicité pour l’humain, les impacts sur l’eau de mer et l’eau douce, l’oxydation photochimique (en lien avec la pollution de l’air), l’acidification et l’eutrophisation des eaux.

Selon notre ACV, le photovoltaïque est l’énergie qui a le plus d’impacts environnementaux et l’hydroélectrique, celle qui en a le moins. Ces résultats sont largement liés aux quantités de matériaux utilisés et à la durée de vie des installations.

La prise en compte de certains de ces critères environnementaux spécifiques peut modifier ce classement : le nucléaire a davantage d’impacts si on considère les radiations ionisantes et l’eutrophisation marine, l’hydroélectricité nécessite davantage d’eau. Mais même en tenant compte de davantage de critères environnementaux, avec la méthode ReCiPe, qui en comporte 22, le photovoltaïque reste le plus mauvais élève pour 18 de ces critères.

Impacts environnementaux d’une même quantité d’électricité, selon son mode de production.
Fourni par l’auteur

Les impacts des six scénarios de RTE ont été comparés avec deux approches différentes mais complémentaires.

D’abord en fonction de l’énergie produite par les quatre sources d’électricité chaque année. À noter qu’avec cette méthode, les impacts de la production du combustible nucléaire et de la gestion des déchets sont inclus dans les bases de données, mais que les moyens de stockage de l’électricité sont ici négligés, ce qui sous-estime les impacts des scénarios sans nucléaire.
Puis en fonction de la puissance installée, en tenant compte de la durée de vie des installations – en négligeant cette fois les impacts liés au fonctionnement normal des infrastructures. Les impacts du stockage sont, alors, pris en compte.

Les résultats obtenus avec les deux méthodes sont très similaires : le scénario M1, qui s’appuie le plus sur le photovoltaïque, est celui qui a le plus d’impacts environnementaux sur tous les critères considérés. Le scénario qui a le moins d’impacts, à l’inverse, est celui qui compte le plus sur le nucléaire. Même dans le scénario N2, qui compte largement sur le nucléaire, la majorité des impacts environnementaux proviennent du photovoltaïque, alors qu’il ne représente que 16 % du mix électrique.

Impacts environnementaux estimés pour les différents scénarios RTE.
Fourni par l’auteur

Il ne s’agit pas de dire que le photovoltaïque et l’éolien sont inutiles à la transition énergétique : ces sources renouvelables sont très utiles lorsqu’elles permettent d’éviter de produire de l’électricité avec du pétrole, du gaz ou du charbon. L’éolien et le photovoltaïque sont beaucoup moins polluants que ces énergies fossiles, qui n’ont pas été considérées ici.

Elles ont bien un rôle à jouer : RTE estime que le nucléaire et l’hydroélectricité ne permettront pas de produire suffisamment d’électricité pour l’électrification prévue dans le cadre de la Stratégie nationale bas carbone (SNBC). De plus, les technologies évoluent, et il est probable que les impacts du photovoltaïque et de l’éolien diminuent avec le temps.

À l’heure de choisir un mix électrique pour l’avenir qui s’appuie le moins possible sur les énergies fossiles, le nucléaire semble donc incontournable pour un mix le plus vert possible. Ces résultats montrent que plus la part du nucléaire est élevée dans le mix électrique, moins on a besoin d’installations en tous genres – consommateurs de matériaux –, moins on crée d’impacts environnementaux.

Notre étude a toutefois des limites, qui tiennent à ses hypothèses de départ : elle ne prend pas en compte le risque de catastrophe nucléaire. En effet, l’ACV ne considère que le fonctionnement normal des installations, et sa précision dépend de la fiabilité des données inscrites dans les bases de données.

Elle n’intègre pas non plus ni le risque d’explosion d’hydrogène stocké ni le risque de ruptures de barrages hydrauliques qui ont pourtant historiquement tué bien plus que les catastrophes de Tchernobyl et de Fukushima. Il est également supposé que la gestion des déchets nucléaires sera sans conséquences sur les générations futures.

Bertrand Cassoret est membre bénévole de l’Association Française pour l’Information Scientifique et de la Société Française d’Energie Nucléaire.

– ref. Demain, le mix électrique français sera-t-il plus « vert » avec ou sans nucléaire ? – https://theconversation.com/demain-le-mix-electrique-francais-sera-t-il-plus-vert-avec-ou-sans-nucleaire-277288

March 12, 2026

Accepter (ou non) de vivre à proximité d’une centrale nucléaire, une question loin d’être réglée

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Renaud Coulomb, Professor of Economics, Mines Paris – PSL

Depuis l’accident nucléaire de Fukushima en 2011, la perception du risque nucléaire a changé, et cela, bien au-delà des frontières du Japon. En Angleterre, une étude a montré que les logements situés à moins de 20 km des centrales ont perdu en moyenne 4,2 % de leur valeur à la suite de la catastrophe et connu une forte recomposition sociale. Un signal fort, à l’heure où la France et le Royaume-Uni relancent de vastes programmes nucléaires.

L’énergie nucléaire est aujourd’hui présentée comme un pilier de la décarbonation et de la sécurité énergétique européennes. Pourtant, si les arbitrages énergétiques se décident au niveau national, leur acceptabilité se joue souvent à l’échelle locale.

En mars 2011, l’accident nucléaire de Fukushima-Daiichi avait bouleversé la perception mondiale du risque nucléaire. Certains pays avaient alors réaffirmé leur engagement, comme le Royaume-Uni ou la France, qui a récemment replacé le nucléaire au cœur de la programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE). D’autres, comme l’Allemagne, avaient mis leurs programmes en pause ou fait marche arrière.

Entre la construction de nouveaux réacteurs pressurisés européens (EPR) – la PPE française prévoit la construction de six nouveaux réacteurs EPR2, avec huit en option – et l’émergence de nouveaux concepts comme les petits réacteurs modulaires (Small Modular Reactors, ou SMR), la dynamique actuelle est celle d’un regain des investissements.

Mais au-delà des choix technologiques et politiques, un facteur demeure déterminant pour l’avenir de l’industrie : l’acceptation du public. Nous avons mené une étude portant sur l’évolution des marchés immobiliers et la composition socio-économique des quartiers en Angleterre après l’accident de Fukushima.

Nos travaux montrent comment la perception d’un risque accru peut transformer les communautés vivant à proximité des centrales. À la clé, vague de départ des ménages, baisse des prix immobiliers et accroissement de la pauvreté, et cela au Royaume-Uni, pays où l’énergie nucléaire bénéficie d’un fort soutien au niveau national.

SMR ou EPR, le même défi de l’acceptation locale

Parmi les nouvelles options technologiques, les SMR suscitent un intérêt croissant. Conçus en usine, transportés puis assemblés sur site, ces réacteurs de petite taille (d’une puissance pouvant aller jusqu’à 300 mégawatts) promettent des chantiers plus rapides et des coûts mieux maîtrisés.

Nécessitant moins de foncier et d’eau, ils peuvent être implantés sur des sites plus variés, au plus près des besoins en électricité et en chaleur. Ils pourraient par exemple remplacer les centrales à charbon ou à gaz en fin de vie en réutilisant les raccordements existants au réseau, tout en préservant les emplois qualifiés et les recettes fiscales locales, ce qui favoriserait leur acceptation politique.

Plus de 80 modèles de SMR sont aujourd’hui en cours de développement dans 18 pays. La Russie et la Chine en ont déjà construit, tandis que les États-Unis, le Royaume-Uni, le Canada, la France, le Japon et la Corée du Sud mènent des projets pilotes. Le Royaume-Uni, notamment, mise sur les SMR pour accroître son parc d’ici 2050, en complément de ses chantiers EPR, comme Hinkley Point C et Sizewell C.

La centrale nucléaire de Sizewell, au Royaume-Uni, comprend plusieurs tranches : une à l’arrêt définitif, une en exploitation et enfin une troisième en cours de construction avec deux EPR.
Ivor Branton, CC BY-NC-ND

En France, malgré un fort soutien institutionnel au nucléaire, rien ne garantit que le nucléaire connaîtra un rebond sans accroc après 2035, et ce, pour trois raisons principales.

Premièrement, la plupart des nouveaux EPR2 et SMR ne seront pas opérationnels avant les années 2030, une projection encore fragilisée par l’historique de l’industrie en matière de retards. L’exemple de l’EPR de Flamanville (Manche), lancé en 2007 et raccordé au réseau seulement en 2024, reste éloquent.
Deuxièmement, la gestion des déchets reste un défi non résolu. Des travaux récents suggèrent même que plusieurs modèles de SMR produiraient davantage de déchets radioactifs par unité d’énergie que les grandes centrales, ce qui pourrait alourdir leur coût réel.
Enfin, et surtout, les porteurs de projets devront obtenir l’adhésion des communautés locales s’ils souhaitent s’implanter dans de nouveaux territoires.

Les enquêtes d’opinion post-Fukushima montrent un soutien national très variable d’un pays à l’autre, et que cette énergie est rarement la source préférée d’électricité.

Surtout, une attitude favorable au niveau national ne garantit pas son acceptation au niveau local. La logique du « not in my backyard » (« pas dans mon arrière-cour ») peut bloquer des projets pourtant viables au plan économique. C’est particulièrement vrai lorsque les risques sont perçus comme très concentrés, tandis que les bénéfices semblent largement diffus.

La perception du risque nucléaire après Fukushima : le cas anglais

Notre étude a analysé comment ces changements de perception du risque nucléaire se traduisaient concrètement et s’inscrivaient dans une dynamique plus large de l’évolution des populations autour des sites nucléaires au fil des décennies.

À partir d’un registre exhaustif des transactions immobilières en Angleterre de 2007 à 2014, nous avons comparé l’évolution des prix dans un rayon de 20 km autour des centrales nucléaires à celle observée entre 20 et 100 km, avant et après Fukushima.

Le seuil des 20 km correspond à la distance de sécurité massivement relayée par les médias britanniques à la suite de l’instauration par le gouvernement japonais d’une zone d’évacuation dans un rayon de 20 km autour du site accidenté.

Nos résultats sont clairs. En moyenne, les logements proches des centrales anglaises ont perdu plus de 4 % de leur valeur foncière après Fukushima, par rapport à des biens similaires situés plus loin.

Cette moyenne cache toutefois des disparités importantes. La chute des prix a été nettement plus marquée dans les zones où la main-d’œuvre est très mobile. Cela ne signifie donc pas que la perception du risque nucléaire n’a pas changé dans les zones proches des centrales où la mobilité des ménages est restée limitée, mais plutôt que celle-ci ne s’est pas traduite par un ajustement à court terme des prix de l’immobilier.

Le cas anglais est particulièrement révélateur. Contrairement à l’Allemagne ou au Japon, le Royaume-Uni, comme la France, a maintenu son programme nucléaire après 2011, en engageant un renouvellement du parc. La baisse de l’immobilier y reflète donc bien une véritable crainte environnementale locale, et non l’anticipation d’une fermeture des centrales nucléaires.

Au-delà des prix de l’immobilier, la composition sociale des quartiers a également évolué. Entre 2010 et 2019, la pauvreté s’est accrue autour des sites nucléaires, surtout dans les zones à forte mobilité résidentielle. Ainsi, même dans un cadre de soutien politique fort et de réglementation stricte, un accident lointain a engendré des effets socio-économiques durables sur le territoire britannique.

Bien sûr, les dynamiques passées éclairent aussi ces résultats. Dans les années 1970, lors de la mise en service des centrales étudiées, les zones situées à moins de 20 km avaient déjà connu une première vague de déclin démographique et de précarisation.

Leçons de politique publique

Si le choix politique actuel est celui d’une expansion durable du nucléaire, il est crucial d’obtenir le consentement local, autant que national, des populations.

Pour les ménages, soutenir la décarbonation ou la souveraineté énergétique à l’échelle d’un pays ne signifie pas accepter un réacteur au bout de sa rue. Il faut engager un dialogue transparent, le plus tôt possible, avec des informations accessibles sur les risques d’accident, les plans d’urgence, les règles de responsabilité et la gestion à long terme des déchets, etc.

Surtout, les communautés exposées à des risques concentrés doivent bénéficier d’avantages concentrés : fonds spécifiques, réductions sur les factures d’énergie, investissements dans les infrastructures, programmes de formation ou encore priorité à la sous-traitance locale. Ces contreparties doivent être mises en place dès la phase de planification et durer tout au long de l’exploitation.

Loin de contourner cet obstacle, les SMR l’accentuent. Leur intérêt premier réside en effet dans leur flexibilité d’implantation géographique. Ainsi, nombre de sites envisagés devraient se situer dans des régions nouvelles pour le nucléaire, où les populations n’ont pas eu le temps de « s’auto-sélectionner » selon leur tolérance au risque nucléaire. De plus, la viabilité économique des SMR exige une production en série et des commandes groupées : un véritable défi organisationnel vu les contraintes de sites et de licences.

Le processus de sélection des sites, l’implication réelle des habitants et l’équité dans la répartition des bénéfices seront donc déterminants. On peut toutefois s’attendre à d’importants ajustements socio-économiques et démographiques à proximité des futurs projets. Sans mécanismes crédibles de partage des bénéfices, l’expansion du nucléaire en Europe pourrait accroître les inégalités territoriales.

Renaud Coulomb déclare ne pas être en situation de conflit d’intérêts. Il ne fournit pas de services de conseil et ne détient aucune participation financière dans des entreprises du secteur énergétique, ni dans des entreprises susceptibles de bénéficier des analyses ou des conclusions présentées dans cette tribune. La recherche citée dans cet article a bénéficié du soutien financier de l’Ecole d’Economie de Paris et de l’Université de Melbourne. Certains des projets de recherche de l’auteur ont pu bénéficier de financements supplémentaires de Mines Paris – PSL University et de la Fondation Mines Paris dans le cadre de la Chaire de Mécénat ENG, en partenariat avec l’Université Paris-Dauphine, la Toulouse School of Economics et CentraleSupélec.

Yanos Zylberberg ne fournit pas de services de conseil et ne détient aucune participation financière dans des entreprises du secteur énergétique, ni dans des entreprises susceptibles de bénéficier des analyses ou des conclusions présentées dans cette tribune. Certains projets de recherche (qui digitalisent des cartes historiques) ont reçu des financements de l’ESRC.

– ref. Accepter (ou non) de vivre à proximité d’une centrale nucléaire, une question loin d’être réglée – https://theconversation.com/accepter-ou-non-de-vivre-a-proximite-dune-centrale-nucleaire-une-question-loin-detre-reglee-275150

March 12, 2026

How biological invasions are silently remodelling ecosystems

Source: The Conversation – France – By Franck Courchamp, Directeur de recherche CNRS, Université Paris-Saclay

Many of the most damaging invasions do not simply subtract species; they fundamentally remodel the environment, altering habitats, rewiring interactions, and shifting processes in ways that species lists alone cannot reveal.

Consider the goat, the horse or the deer, introduced to many islands around the world. While their voracious grazing can indeed drive native flora towards local extinction, the legacy is etched deeper into the land.

These invasive herbivores compact the earth, accelerate erosion, open up the undergrowth and modify fire regimes, scarring the landscape long after the herds are gone. These systemic changes threaten biodiversity just as profoundly as the loss of any single species.

To navigate this complexity, invasion scientists have increasingly turned to the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT). This pioneering framework marked a significant leap forward, offering a transparent, evidence-based method to rank “invaders” by the severity of their toll on native species, from negligible effects to local extinctions.

However, EICAT operates with a specific blind spot: it is strictly species-orientated. It assigns a single global severity score to an invader, usually based on the worst-case scenario recorded in its invasive ranges. While powerful for global prioritisation, this approach can overlook the complexities in specific, local ecosystems, each with unique vulnerabilities. As a recent study published in PLOS biology illustrates, there is cause for further investigation.

The invisible architecture of invasions

In addition, biological invasions generate a spectrum of impacts extending far beyond direct effects on native species seen in typical assessments. In our recent synthesis published in 2025, we catalogued 19 distinct types of environmental impacts.

When examining all of the well-documented impacts, it became obvious that most structural changes operate at the level of communities, ecosystems or physical processes.

Crucially, twelve of these categories concern scales broader than the actual species: nutrient cycling, habitat structure, or the physical properties of soil and water, for instance whose impacts are therefore underestimated.

Three distinctive levels of structural changes can be distinguished:

individuals and populations,
assemblages of different species,
ecosystem functioning, or abiotic conditions – in other words non-living physical or chemical parts of the environment that affect living organisms such as pollination and fire regimes.

Nutria are a species renown for its ecosystem engineering skills.
Max Saeling

Despite being widespread and well documented, these structural changes remain largely unclassified by frameworks that focus ultimately on native species loss.

This omission is critical because many invasive species act as “ecosystem engineers”, organisms that do not merely live in an environment but actively modify it, influencing the fate of entire communities.

To capture this nuance, from our recent research we developed a complementary assessment tool: EEICAT, the Extended Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa.

From the invader to the invasion

EEICAT is not a replacement but an evolution. It brings a necessary expansion in impact assessments, while seeking simplicity and integration. It is based on EICAT, but it shifts the unit of assessment from the invasive species to the invasion event. Under this framework, all 19 impact types can now be considered and an invasive population can be assigned one or multiple severity categories, at any ecological level. Under EEICAT, the loose threads of evidence from multiple impacts can now be woven to reflect the unique tapestry of effects on native species, communities, processes, and even abiotic conditions.

The necessity of this distinction is vivid in aquatic systems invaded by zebra mussels (Dreissena spp.). In too many lakes, these molluscs threaten native mussel populations through competition and biofouling, a classic impact well captured by standard assessments. Yet, simultaneously, they are transforming the environment itself: filtering water, lowering turbidity, altering nutrient cycles, and triggering cascading shifts in vegetation and food webs. EEICAT allows us to map both the direct blow to native biodiversity and the systemic reengineering of the lake, within a single framework.

Zebra mussels (*Dreissena polymorpha*) attached to native mussels.

A similar logic applies to the terrestrial realm. The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) is notorious for displacing native ants, simplifying communities into ghost towns, devoid of the usually numerous native ant species. But its influence ripples further. By disrupting mutualisms between plants and insects, these invaders alter seed dispersal, pollination, invertebrate assemblages, and even soil processes. These indirect, community-level impacts often differ in severity across invasion events, depending on climate, habitat integrity and recipient ecosystems. You can therefore assess several impacts per invasion, and characterise the specificities of each invasion: with a case-based approach.

invasive ant supercolony or ants tending aphids.
Alexander Wild (reuse prohibited without authorisation)

Context is everything

The plant kingdom offers some of the clearest arguments for an event-based approach. Acacia species, introduced globally, act as ecological chameleons. In South Africa, they are aggressive suppressors of native flora, or “fynbos”, and transformers of soil chemistry through nitrogen enrichment.

In Mediterranean Europe, the same Acacia dealbata species, commonly known as mimosa, may exert moderate competitive pressure but still alter fire regimes, litter accumulation and hydrology.

EEICAT provides a straightforward way to document these contrasts, where all evidence counts in helping to assess the severity of each particular invasion.

Reinterpreting the ecological history of biological invasions

Importantly, adopting EEICAT does not mean starting from scratch. We can leverage decades of existing impact studies, and even previous EICAT impact assessments could be adapted. The framework simply translates qualitative ecological evidence into a broader set of categories that span biological, community, and abiotic levels. It even uses the same five levels of severity, from “minimal concern” to “massive concern”, with the same guiding decision rules. This compatibility allows us to reinterpret the history of invasion ecology through a wider lens.

Because EEICAT is case-specific, it enables us to track how a single species behaves differently across regions, or how multiple invaders compound pressure on a single ecosystem. It reveals patterns of cumulative stress and ecosystem vulnerability that global scores simply cannot articulate.

Biological invasions are not merely about losing species; they are also about the silent rewriting of ecosystems. From the chemistry of the soil to the rhythms of wildfires, their impacts ripple through the environment long after their arrival. By embracing the Extended EICAT framework, we can finally capture the full scope of how invasive species really impact ecosystems, and tailor management strategies to the complex realities of the living world, with each invasion, one by one.

Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the Axa Research Fund – now part of the Axa Foundation for Human Progress – has supported over 700 projects around the world with researchers from 38 countries on key environmental, health & socioeconomic risks, like this project led by Franck Courchamp. To learn more, visit the website of the AXA Research Fund or follow @ AXAResearchFund on LinkedIn.

Franck Courchamp received funding from The AXA Research Fund.

Laís Carneiro received funding from AXA Research Fund.

– ref. How biological invasions are silently remodelling ecosystems – https://theconversation.com/how-biological-invasions-are-silently-remodelling-ecosystems-277703