Category: Academic Analysis

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Asrif Yusoff, Senior Lecturer and Employability Lead, University of Greenwich

It has been said that “people leave managers, not companies”. It’s easy to believe that this is true, either from personal experience or observation. Many workers can easily point to a line manager who dismissed their concerns or treated them unfairly.

But is it really fair to suggest that managers alone are the dominant cause of staff turnover? Our recent study indicates that in most cases, it’s a combination of both leadership and the organisation. We reviewed 39 papers from the past ten years – and the findings suggest something more nuanced.

People might leave a job if what is demanded of them significantly exceeds the resources they’re given. Managers do matter here because they can shape both sides of that equation. But leadership style alone can be overpowered when workload remains high and resources are consistently below par. In these conditions, even good managers struggle to retain people.

Read more:
Revenge quitting: is it ever a good idea to leave your job in anger?

Across the literature, leadership was shown to influence employee turnover in two ways. First, leaders set the tone for how their employees operate. Good relationships between managers and employees tend to clarify to workers what is expected from them, as well as a sense of autonomy and an ability to express oneself without fear (what we call psychological safety).

Within management theory, there are different types of positive leadership. These include “transformational” (real impact is felt), “servant” (leaders maximise team potential) and “ethical” (grounded on strong principles). Studies consistently link these favourable approaches to staff being less inclined to leave, due to stronger levels of trust and engagement.

Second, leaders intensify demands. Naturally, micromanagement or abusive supervision will strain relationships. When employees feel they are under constant pressure, they are more likely to disengage and plan their exit. In this respect, people do leave managers – because their boss’s behaviour creates conditions that make work feel unmanageable.

These conditions explain how leadership can influence workers’ intentions to leave. They also explain why organisations keep returning to manager coaching or training as an intervention to help them hold on to talented staff. But this could be a waste of time – leadership is just one part of the story.

When good management is not enough

In many of the reviewed studies, factors such as workload, scheduling and pay played a big role in someone’s decision to leave. A supportive manager may buffer strain to protect team members, but when workload is chronically heavy or people aren’t clear on how they can progress in the organisation, the manager’s positive influence will fade away.

This explains some common patterns. Organisations sometimes attribute turnover to bad managers when the deeper cause is an overly stretched workforce. Also, managers are frequently expected to compensate for problems they cannot control – things like understaffing, pay structures or working hours. A manager can only do so much to appease unhappy workers.

Evidence from the literature suggests the demands of work must be balanced with the resources provided (time, staff, money or equipment, for example). This can be a two-track approach.

Track 1: Structural improvement

One way that work structures can be improved is by reducing overload. This is of course easier said than done – it involves diagnosing what is pushing demands too far. Someone’s decision to leave begins with unclear priorities or unpredictable demands. Even small improvements such as a clearer allocation of work and strategies for prioritising tasks can reduce pressure.

Another angle is clarity on what employees have to do to progress within the organisation. Employees are more likely to leave when progression appears arbitrary or – even worse – political. Clarifying pathways and criteria for promotion (and following through) can reduce uncertainty and strengthen employees’ commitment.

This kind of change takes time, however. It may require some extra budget and stronger collaborations across teams. What’s key is addressing what can be changed across the organisation rather than placing the entire burden of retaining staff on leaders.

Track 2: Strengthening leadership

When change is slow, leadership becomes a more immediate lever. The goal is for leaders to not only be inspiring, but to “walk the talk”. Change must be felt, and it becomes tangible when leaders actually increase resources and reduce avoidable demands.

Coaching (continuous nurturing and support) is increasingly cited as a prerequisite for leaders. This is not only because it promotes empathy. Coaching is useful because it can offer better clarity for employees. It also helps to uncover workload challenges early.

Related to this is how work is distributed. When duties are allocated transparently, it reduces people’s perceptions of unfairness and prevents avoidable overload. This is actually a more feasible action compared to changing the behaviour of managers.

But where managers are abusive or authoritarian, attempts to hold on to staff will fail unless the managerial behaviour is addressed. Toxic leadership can easily accelerate staff losses beyond the level that structural changes can repair in the short term.

Staff turnover is not always a purely individual decision. Some studies indicate that when people start to leave a workplace, it can start a trend. Employees can also begin to make comparisons within teams, particularly when opportunities appear uneven.

For organisations, this makes monitoring staff turnover a form of early warning system. An exodus should trigger an investigation, targeted support and action where necessary. Unfortunately, there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.

In summary, people do leave managers, but they also leave organisations. Both leadership behaviour and the design of workplaces shape this decision. Retention improves when organisations see leadership and structural change as complementary levers in the same system.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The old adage that people leave managers, not companies is true – but only up to a point – https://theconversation.com/the-old-adage-that-people-leave-managers-not-companies-is-true-but-only-up-to-a-point-280879

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan R. Goodman, Assistant Research Professor, Psychiatry, University of Cambridge

Until a few years ago, no one had heard of bixonimania. Then, in 2024, a group of scientists posted findings online announcing the condition, which they claimed affected the eyes after computer use. However, the scientists had made it up – not just the work, but the authors’ names, affiliations, locations and funding, which was the University of Fellowship of the Ring and the Galactic Triad.

Large language models like ChatGPT and Gemini treated it as real anyway, and in doing so, helped turn a fictional disease into a legitimate-sounding health concern.

Bixonimania is not an isolated case. Being deceived – whether you are a person or an AI model – is concerningly common, in science and beyond. Whether we’re talking about AI hallucinations, state-backed disinformation or just everyday lies, humans have a remarkable knack for naivety, owing to our biases and increasing need to outsource learning to others. These are problems we – individually and collectively – urgently need to better understand and overcome.

Our shared fascination with deception may help explain the popularity of The Traitors, a TV programme built around the tension between trust and suspicion, where contestants must decide who among them is deceiving the group.

The show captures something intrinsic to being human: the persistent threat of being unsure about whether we’re placing trust effectively. Yet in the modern era of mass digital communication and AI, we’re now almost constantly faced with a similar threat, often without realising it.

At a recent event at the Cambridge Festival, we aimed to highlight this risk through a Traitors-themed science event. Four panellists presented work, all of which could have been a lie. The audience was asked to vote on which of the presenters was deceiving them and why.

We deliberately made the presenters and their work outlandish. From their varying backgrounds and with varying accents, the panellists presented their work in global health, climate, media and astrophysics. Some dressed formally, while one – a Nigerian researcher presenting her work on immigration in a healthcare context – wore clothes linked to her ethnic identity.

We were interested in exploring which of these signals – accent, gender, ethnicity, and dress and presentation style – influenced the audience’s decisions. Both content and presentation styles influenced them, but the signals they relied on led them to the wrong conclusions, rating the traitors as more credible than honest researchers.

The ones who received the most votes were the two “faithful” researchers (to use the language of The Traitors) – Ada, from the non-profit Development Media Initiative, and Sarah, an astrophysicist working in galactic archaeology.

Ada’s team had saved lives by sharing health information with communities in the global south through running ten radio broadcasts daily. The audience thought the results were implausibly impressive.

“Ada’s data is too good to be true,” one person reported in our questionnaire. She was also presenting work she hadn’t personally contributed to. Even though this is common in large collaborations, this distance led to perceptions of a lack of confidence, undermining her credibility.

Sarah, an astrophysicist, had presented her subfield of galactic archaeology – the study of the Milky Way’s formation history through the chemical signatures of ancient stars. Yet with only four minutes to speak, she was unable to convey significant depth. The audience read that as a lack of understanding.

The outlandishness of her field’s name also harmed perceptions of her legitimacy. “Galaxy [sic] archaeology is too cool a name to exist,” one audience member wrote.

By contrast, the two traitors, Jack and Joyce, received the fewest votes. Jack was an actor who created the persona of a climate researcher specialising in rain. Joyce presented her own work but falsified the results.

Interestingly, Joyce’s personal connection to her work – she is a Nigerian woman conducting research into Nigerian communities – helped to convince the audience of her authenticity. “Joyce’s presentation sounded very considered and genuine – the process of her research and recounts of her personal experiences sounded like she had lots of interest in the area,” one person wrote.

The event was meant to be fun and engaging. Yet we also wanted to illustrate the many ways people can misrepresent themselves, whether in science or beyond. Our traitors showed that lies don’t just have to be about who you are (Jack is an actor, not a researcher) but about what you say (Joyce is a researcher but falsified her results).

Misinformation has always existed. What’s new is the speed at which it spreads, the tools that generate it, and how convincingly it mimics the real thing.

Why maths isn’t enough

Our collective capacity to recognise false information is also at risk. This is because, as a society, we continue to promote the importance of hard science subjects at the expense of the critical thinking skills derived from studies of the arts, humanities and social sciences.

This can be seen, for example, in the 2023 UK governmental push to require all school students to take maths until age 18. No such push exists to promote and develop the critical thinking skills of young people. It’s easy to see how increasingly convincing falsehoods like bixonimania’s existence can be accepted as truth, especially when touted by AI models.

Tools are helpful. AI is a tool, the internet is a tool, the media is a tool. But it’s up to us to ensure that we are using them and not being manipulated by them.

In The Traitors, we have little to go on to determine what is true. Yet in the real world, we have the ability to check the truth of claims. With effective caution and critical thinking, it is entirely possible to determine what is trustworthy, but it requires thinking for ourselves. Trust is ours to give, and we need to learn to give it wisely.

Jonathan R. Goodman receives funding from the National Institute of Health Research, the Wellcome Sanger Institute, and the Wellcome Trust.

Mariam Rashid receives funding from the Isaac Newton Trust and the Kavli Foundation.

– ref. The fake disease that fooled the internet — and what it says about all of us – https://theconversation.com/the-fake-disease-that-fooled-the-internet-and-what-it-says-about-all-of-us-280615

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

Metformin has a strong claim to being one of the most influential medicines of the past century. For decades, it has underpinned the treatment of type 2 diabetes, helped millions of people control their blood sugar, and inspired a second life in research on everything from ageing and cancer to heart health and fertility.

Its story begins not in a laboratory but in a plant, galega officinalis, also known as French lilac or goat’s rue. For centuries, the plant was used in folk remedies for symptoms we now recognise as associated with diabetes, including excessive thirst and frequent urination. In the early 20th century, scientists isolated blood sugar-lowering compounds from it. After years of refinement and testing, metformin emerged as a relatively safe and effective medicine, and was introduced in the UK in the late 1950s.

Large clinical trials, which are carefully designed studies in people to test how well treatments work, confirmed what many doctors already suspected. Metformin was not only effective at lowering glucose, the body’s main form of sugar, but also at reducing diabetes-related complications. It became the main treatment for type 2 diabetes across much of the world.

Metformin is a biguanide drug, a class of medicines that lowers blood sugar, and it works by helping the body use insulin more effectively. Insulin is the hormone that helps move glucose from the bloodstream into cells for energy. Metformin reduces the amount of glucose released by the liver, improves the way muscles take up glucose from the blood, and reduces how much glucose is absorbed from food in the gut.

Metformin also activates an enzyme called AMPK, often described as the cell’s energy sensor. Enzymes are proteins that help chemical reactions happen in the body.

When AMPK is switched on, it reduces the liver’s production of new glucose, a process called gluconeogenesis, and encourages tissues such as muscle to take up and use more glucose. Unlike some other diabetes medicines, metformin does not usually cause weight gain, and on its own it rarely causes low blood sugar.

Beyond diabetes: promise and limits

Metformin’s strong reputation has also led researchers to explore possible uses beyond diabetes, although the evidence is mixed. One common off-label use, meaning a medicine is prescribed for a condition it has not officially been approved to treat, is polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

Many people with PCOS have insulin resistance, which means their bodies do not respond properly to insulin and need to produce more of it to keep blood glucose stable. High insulin levels can stimulate the ovaries to produce more androgens, a group of hormones that includes testosterone.

Raised androgen levels can disrupt ovulation and contribute to irregular or absent periods. By improving insulin sensitivity, metformin can help reduce these effects and may help regulate the menstrual cycle.

Metformin has also been studied for its possible effects on ageing and longevity. Although early findings are intriguing, there is still no conclusive evidence that it slows ageing in humans, and it is not approved for that purpose.

Some research has suggested that metformin may have neuroprotective effects, meaning it could help protect the brain and nervous system, particularly with long-term use. But the evidence is inconsistent, and large, long-term clinical trials are still needed to determine whether metformin really can protect against dementia and other neurodegenerative diseases.

These possible uses highlight metformin’s versatility, but they also underline the importance of medical oversight. Metformin is generally well tolerated, but like all medicines, it can cause side-effects. The most common are nausea, stomach discomfort, diarrhoea, changes in taste, and loss of appetite. These often improve over time or when people switch to slow-release formulations, which release the drug more gradually. Taking metformin with food can also help.

Another recognised issue is vitamin B12 deficiency, which has repeatedly been observed in people with type 2 diabetes who take metformin. This may happen because the drug reduces how well vitamin B12 is absorbed in the gut.

Over time, low vitamin B12 can lead to anaemia or peripheral neuropathy. Anaemia means the body does not have enough healthy red blood cells to carry oxygen properly, while peripheral neuropathy refers to nerve damage, usually in the hands or feet, that can cause tingling, numbness, pain or weakness.

A rare but serious side-effect is lactic acidosis, a dangerous build-up of lactic acid in the blood. If too much builds up, it can make the blood dangerously acidic and, if untreated, may lead to organ failure. This is more likely in people with severe kidney or liver problems, which is why regular monitoring is important. Healthcare professionals may also advise temporarily stopping metformin before certain medical procedures or if someone becomes severely unwell.

For decades, the advice was simple: start with metformin. In 2026, however, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) updated its guidelines for type 2 diabetes, signalling a move towards earlier and more intensive treatment. The new guidance recommends that most people should be offered an SGLT-2 inhibitor, such as dapagliflozin, alongside metformin from the start.

SGLT-2 inhibitors are drugs that help the kidneys remove excess glucose from the body in urine. This approach aims not only to control blood sugar, but also to protect the heart and kidneys earlier in the course of disease, reflecting a broader shift towards more personalised treatment.

That does not mean metformin has been pushed aside. It remains a cornerstone of diabetes care and is still widely prescribed. But the landscape is changing, and treatment is becoming more tailored to the individual.

Metformin may be old, but it continues to adapt to modern medicine. As diabetes care becomes more personalised and new treatment options emerge, metformin remains a reliable, affordable and effective foundation. Its story is far from over. Sometimes the most transformative medicines are not the newest or the flashiest, but the ones that stand the test of time.

Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The 10 pence pill that underpins diabetes care – and may do much more besides – https://theconversation.com/the-10-pence-pill-that-underpins-diabetes-care-and-may-do-much-more-besides-276136

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Glenn Fosbraey, Associate Dean of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Winchester

This year is the national year of reading, and if you’re a music lover, I urge you to pick one up about your favourite musician. The lives of musicians are often full of highs and lows, which makes for compelling reading. Here are five of my favourites.

1. Fight The Power by Chuck D

I suppose I shouldn’t really include Fight The Power in my list, given that Chuck D himself says in its prologue that it “damn sure ain’t an autobiography”. He positions himself as a tour guide rather than a protagonist, chaperoning us through the fascinating landscape of 80s and 90s hip-hop. Such guiding means it’s different from your average autobiography. But, intertwined with observations on racial oppression, media bias, politics, violence and religion, we find Chuck D’s life story. And it’s quite the story indeed.

The book moves from a childhood lived against a backdrop of assassinations, chaos and race riots, through his days as the leader of Public Enemy (one of the most revolutionary groups in music history), up to his latest challenge as a father encouraging his daughters to think as independently as possible. An engrossing, page-turning peek behind the curtain of a fascinating character living in a fascinating (albeit often troubling) world.

2. Under the Ivy: The Life and Music of Kate Bush (2024 Omnibus Remastered Edition) by Graeme Thomson

At 432 pages, this is a slim volume compared with the likes of Ray Davies: A Complicated Life (800 pages), Madonna: A Rebel Life (880 pages), or The Life and Times of Malcolm McLaren (892 pages). But what it lacks in physical heft, Under the Ivy more than makes up with the weight of research that has gone into it.

Thomson is forensic in his detail, both in terms of researching Bush’s life (he conducted more than 70 interviews with school friends, band mates, studio collaborators, former managers, producers, musicians, video directors, dance instructors and record company executives), and in analysing her songs, which he does with the keen eye of a music critic. Trying to form a single picture of an artist as enigmatic and complex as Bush is, in Thomson’s words, “like trying to complete a jigsaw when some of the pieces are missing”. And making a coherent, entertaining and informative read from that is an even bigger challenge. Luckily for us, Thomson is up to it.

3. Things The Grandchildren Should Know by Mark Oliver Everett

By page four of his autobiography, Eels singer and songwriter Mark Everett (known professionally as “E”) has been attacked with a butcher’s knife, found his 51-year-old father dead in the family home, and told us about how, at 19, he fantasised about driving his car off a bridge. As if this weren’t enough tragedy for one lifetime, E then tells us about his sister’s suicide, the months of nursing his bedridden mother before she eventually succumbed to breast cancer, his flight attendant cousin dying during the Pentagon plane crash on 9/11, the deaths of several close friends, and the numerous rejections of his music.

In other hands, Things The Grandchildren Should Know might have been one of the saddest, most harrowing autobiographies ever written. And it certainly had every right to be. That it somehow succeeds in being one of the most uplifting, positive, and inspirational autobiographies is a testament to both E’s skilful writing, bone-dry sense of humour, and infectious optimism in the face of adversity. I’ve read it at least once a year since its release in 2008, usually in one sitting. It’s one of those books that never fails to raise my spirits. Even if you haven’t heard a single note of Eels’ music, or you don’t normally bother with books about rock or pop stars, this story is so good; it’s a must-read.

4. The Beatles by Hunter Davies

That it is the only authorised biography of The Beatles ever to be produced is reason enough to read this 1968 classic. But knowing that, for 18 months, Hunter Davies partied with the band, went to work with them and was introduced to all their friends makes it an essential. And the 18 months were those between 1967 and 1968, when the band were changing not only music, but pop culture at large.

Strangely, for all the magic of the now well-known story of the band’s rise to global domination, the real highlight comes toward the end of the book, where Davies details the time he spent at each Beatle’s house. Here we get to see the world’s most celebrated icons behind closed doors, unguarded and relaxed. And the mundanity of it is delicious. There’s Lennon playing with a loose filling before swigging milk straight from the bottle; Ringo pottering around his garden; Paul eating fried eggs, bacon and buttered bread; and George answering the phone pretending to be “Esher Wine Store”.

5. The Story of The Streets by Mike Skinner

Mike Skinner burst onto the British garage scene with his project the Streets in the early 2000s, with songs about sitting around on the sofa, working at JB Sports and getting pissed on the plane back from holiday. After five hit albums, Skinner took a hiatus from The Streets in 2011, releasing this book the following year.

Skinner makes it clear from the outset that he’s “going to be as honest as the publisher’s lawyers will allow”, but the book is so much more than a warts-and-all account. Much of it focuses on musical inspirations, the craft of songwriting, and his production techniques.

It may come as a surprise to some that The Story of The Streets is written with such intelligence and insight, especially given that Skinner’s lyrics brim with colloquialisms, profanity and ineloquence. But as those of us who’ve followed his career closely will know, this is a man who is able to build character as well as he builds story, and the “everyman” we see portrayed in the Streets’ songs is only the tiniest part of a much more complex person.

This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

Glenn Fosbraey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Five books about the lives of musicians that are stonking good reads – https://theconversation.com/five-books-about-the-lives-of-musicians-that-are-stonking-good-reads-280216

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Esther Kettel, Senior Lecturer in Ecology and Conservation, Nottingham Trent University

England’s last recorded pair of golden eagles lived in the Lake District. After the female died in 2004, the male was left alone for 12 years before his death in 2016.

This marked the end of golden eagles across English skies. Though they have lived on in Scotland, the birds were largely wiped out across England about 150 years ago, with only a few nesting attempts during that time.

However, the UK government recently announced it will support reintroducing the species and has identified eight potential “recovery zones” across northern England and the south-west. This is good news for lots of reasons.

Reintroducing lost species aligns with the government’s 25-year environment plan to restore and recover nature. Golden eagles also have an important heritage as symbols of wilderness, freedom and power. We may even have a moral duty to return them to the landscape, since humans were largely responsible for their loss.

Reintroducing golden eagles would also benefit England’s natural environment, helping return it to a healthier and more dynamic state.

Restoring balance to the food chain

Golden eagles are apex predators, occupying the top of the food chain with no natural predators. The removal of a species like this can cause major shifts in ecosystems, as they exert top-down control.

When apex predators are missing from ecosystems, the middle predators of food chains – or “meso-predators” – become dominant. With its native bears, lynx and wolves long gone, England has a high number of meso-predators. These include badgers, red foxes and other birds of prey. These predators, in turn, can limit some populations of prey like seabirds, waders and gamebirds.

Meso-predators typically avoid areas where apex predators are due to fear of competition or being eaten themselves. So, if golden eagles return then the predation pressure from smaller birds might be altered. For example, on the Isle of Mull in Scotland, meso-predators like kestrels and buzzards tend to steer clear of areas where golden eagles are.

Controlling prey numbers

Golden eagles also have an important role in the ecosystem by regulating their prey species. They hunt various prey, mostly medium-sized birds and mammals like rabbits, hares and occasionally, young deer.

When not controlled by predators, prey populations can boom. This can lead to greater competition for resources and a higher risk of disease spread among these prey species. Prey populations may also overuse resources, which can negatively affect plant growth.

Because apex predators are absent in England, humans must take up the role of controllers. Deer are shot where they are preventing woodland regeneration and rabbits are widely controlled in agricultural landscapes, costing £5 million a year. Although golden eagles are unlikely to reduce deer and rabbit numbers substantially, they may bring some balance back.

Keeping the environment clean

In addition to being excellent predators, golden eagles also scavenge carcasses – the remains of dead animals. Researchers in Spain found that 90% of the golden eagles in their study fed on carcasses.

Carcasses can quickly become disease and toxin reservoirs that may enter the wider environment if left uneaten. This can have consequences for other species, including humans. So scavengers have a crucial role in maintaining a healthy ecosystem.

If reintroduced back to England, golden eagles would join the cleaning crew, which also includes species like red kites, crows and red foxes.

Indicators of a healthy ecosystem

If a pollutant is in an environment, this could affect top predators through a process called biomagnification, where the concentration of the pollutant increases the further up the food chain. If in high concentrations, the pollutant may become toxic and the predator may fail to reproduce, become unwell, or die.

In the 1960s, birds of prey played a pivotal role in making the environmental dangers of certain agricultural pesticides clear in the UK and globally, leading to the widescale ban. Golden eagles could do something similar today.

A complex picture

If golden eagles are successfully reintroduced in England, they could restore balance to food chains, control prey numbers, scavenge carcasses and act as indicators of environmental dangers.

They will join other birds of prey that have been successfully reintroduced to England, such as red kites, ospreys and white-tailed eagles, all of which have been deemed a success.

However, ecological systems are not straightforward and predicting the consequences of the return of golden eagles is complex. As indicated by the risk assessment conducted by Forestry England, at worst the impacts on biodiversity of golden eagles will be neutral. At best it will be beneficial.

Esther Kettel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Golden eagles in England? Here’s the ecological case for bringing them back – https://theconversation.com/golden-eagles-in-england-heres-the-ecological-case-for-bringing-them-back-281040

Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Nagle, Professor in Sociology, Queen’s University Belfast

As the tentative ceasefire in Lebanon holds, people are returning to their homes in the south to find widespread destruction. Whole villages laid waste, roads and bridges ruined, hospitals and other civic infrastructure flattened. And the Israeli army still very much in evidence in many areas.

The most recent conflict between Israel and Lebanon has killed more than 2,100 people and displaced more than a million more. Israel’s stated aim is to destroy Hezbollah, which it describes as an Iranian proxy. But this is a misleading framing of the situation. And trying to destroy Hezbollah by attacking and occupying Lebanon is a dangerous misreading of the situation.

Hezbollah, the so-called “Party of God”, is not the same thing as Lebanon. Yet the party is deeply embedded in Lebanese politics. The group emerged during the Lebanese civil war and in the aftermath of Israel’s 1982 invasion. It grew rapidly by combining armed resistance with political representation and services for Shia communities that had long been neglected by the Lebanese state.

In the southern suburbs of Beirut, known as Dahiyeh, and across the south, it became a provider of services. Hezbollah built schools, clinics and welfare networks that helped it convert resistance into social legitimacy. That presence built loyalty and dependence that outlasted its original resistance role.

Lebanon’s postwar political system is built on sectarian power sharing. Hezbollah entered parliament in the 1990s and built alliances well beyond its core Shia base, which enabled it to join coalition governments.

But unlike other major Lebanese factions, it retained its weapons after the civil war. This allowed it to combine formal political participation with an armed capacity that was outside the control of the state. Its alliance with Christian groups, most significantly Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanon’s largest Christian party, gave it cross-sectarian legitimacy and protection against isolation.

Hezbollah’s ability to shape Lebanese politics has often rested less on governing than on stopping other groups from governing. The clearest illustration was the presidency. After Michel Aoun completed his term in October 2022, Lebanon went without a president for more than two years. Hezbollah blocked every candidate that threatened its interests. Parliament failed to elect a successor 13 times.

Lebanon drifted without a head of state through the 2024 war with Israel. Its caretaker government could not take major decisions. Desperately needed economic assistance was withheld by international donors. It was Hezbollah’s blocking power made visible. Lebanon’s caretaker government could not take major decisions or enact the reforms international donors required. Desperately needed economic assistance was withheld as a result.

Hezbollah’s political weakness

This current conflict has caught Hezbollah in a weaker political position than it once enjoyed. The anti-government protests of 2019, economic collapse and the Beirut port explosion has deepened public anger at Lebanon’s ruling class — and at Hezbollah as part of it. Hezbollah’s attempts to obstruct the judicial investigation into the explosion deepened that anger further.

The 2022 elections confirmed the shift. Hezbollah and its allies lost the majority they had held since 2018. Independents and reformists who emerged out of the protests took seats in a more fragmented legislature.

The Arab Barometer’s 2024 survey found that just 30% of Lebanese expressed significant trust in Hezbollah, with 55% saying they had no trust at all. Hezbollah’s claim to speak for Lebanon — or even for all Lebanese Shia — is now more contested than at any point in its modern history.

The 2024 war, with the devastating pager attacks of September 17 and 18, substantially degraded Hezbollah’s military and further weakened its political standing. Assad’s fall in Syria in December removed a key source of regional support.

In January 2025, the Lebanese parliament finally elected Joseph Aoun as president — something that would have been unthinkable when Hezbollah was at its peak and was able to use its influence to exclude him. Aoun, a former army commander, has always insisted it was the army – not Hezbollah – that should be the defender of Lebanon’s sovereignty.

Operation: destroy Hezbollah

Israel’s stated objective for many years has been to create a more durable security order along its northern border by weakening or dismantling Hezbollah. But, at the same time, Israeli strikes have inflicted devastation far beyond Hezbollah itself, hitting civilians, infrastructure and communities across the country.

The destruction of places such as Dahiyeh reflects a broader logic of warfare in which dense urban space is treated as part of the battlefield. UN experts have argued that the destruction of homes and mass displacement amount to collective punishment in violation of international law.

The argument echoes broader legal debates about Israel’s conduct in Gaza, where UN experts have made similar findings.

That is also why the simple frame of “Israel versus Hezbollah” erases so much. Many of those driven from their homes in the south or in Dahiyeh had grown critical of Hezbollah, or had not chosen this war at all. Yet they found themselves bombed out of neighbourhoods that had been designated as legitimate targets, because of an assumed association with Hezbollah. The civilians killed and displaced are not bystanders to somebody else’s conflict. They are among its principal victims.

A ceasefire was announced on April 17, and – while Hezbollah has not formally endorsed it – the group appears to be observing it for now. Yet the truce leaves the central political question unresolved. Israeli officials have made clear they do not regard it as settling the question of southern Lebanon’s demilitarisation.

Expecting the Lebanese army to dismantle Hezbollah by force is unrealistic. If Hezbollah resisted — and it would — the result could be open civil conflict. It would fracture the army, deepen sectarian tensions, and drive Shia communities back behind the very organisation whose grip had begun to loosen, leaving it politically stronger than it was before the latest round of hostilities.

Any lasting settlement will have to reckon with the reality this war has exposed: Hezbollah is not Lebanon. But at the moment it’s Lebanon which is being punished.

John Nagle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Israel’s onslaught against Lebanon may strengthen Hezbollah – just when it’s at its weakest – https://theconversation.com/israels-onslaught-against-lebanon-may-strengthen-hezbollah-just-when-its-at-its-weakest-281031