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September 5, 2025

What actually happens in your brain when you change your mind?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Dragan Rangelov, Senior Lecturer in Psychology and Cognitive Neuroscience, Swinburne University of Technology

Imagine a game show where the host asks the contestant to randomly pick one option out of three: A, B or C.

After the contestant chooses, say, option B, the host reveals one of the remaining choices (say C) does not contain the prize. In the final step, the contestant is asked whether they want to change their mind and select the remaining option A or stick with their original choice, B.

Dubbed the Monty Hall problem after an American game show host, this famous puzzle has entertained mathematicians for decades. But it can also tell us something about how the human mind and brain function.

Why do some people choose to change their minds while others stick with their first choice? What would you do and what might your choice reveal about your mind?

Choosing when to change

Research on changes of mind uses the concept of “metacognition” to explain when and how mind changes occur. Broadly speaking, metacognition refers to psychological and biological processes that inform us about how well we are doing the task.

In a sense, metacognition is that inner voice telling us we are either on track or that we should try harder.

Intuitively, changes of mind may be triggered by low confidence in our initial choice. Yet, when my colleagues and I reviewed the research on changes of mind about a range of different kinds of decisions, we found many studies showing people change their minds less often than you might think. This was surprising, given how often we feel uncertain about our choices.

On the other hand, when people do choose to change their mind, it is often for the better. This ability to accurately gauge whether to change your mind is referred to as metacognitive sensitivity.

Our research has found people often make better decisions about whether to change their minds when they are put under time pressure.

Understanding more about how we decide to change our minds may lead to ways to train our minds to make better choices.

Our brains show when we will change our minds

Another interesting question about changes of mind is when do people choose to change their minds. The answer to this question might seem obvious, as people can change their minds only after they have made the first choice.

To find out more about this process, we measured people’s brain activity before they even made their initial choice in a laboratory task that involved answering questions about moving images on a screen. We successfully predicted changes of mind seconds before they took place.

These findings suggest brain activity that predicts changes of mind could be harnessed to improve the quality of the initial choices, without needing a change of mind later. Training based on this brain activity may help people in sensitive professions such as health or defence make better choices.

Why don’t we change our minds more often?

Research on metacognition has provided robust evidence that changes of mind tend to improve choice outcomes. So why are people so reluctant to change their minds?

There are at least two possible reasons. First, deciding to change your mind is typically a result of making extra cognitive effort to analyse the quality of the initial choices. Not every decision requires that effort, and most everyday choices can be good enough rather than perfect.

For example, choosing a wrong brand of orange-flavoured soft drink will probably not significantly impact our wellbeing. In fact, consumer research shows buyers tend to report higher product satisfaction when offered fewer choices, a phenomenon called “the paradox of choice”. This suggests having more choices and, therefore, greater opportunity to change one’s mind may be more cognitively effortful.

Second, frequent changes of mind may signal personality traits that are not socially desirable. Meaningful and fulfilling interpersonal relationships rely on the ability to predict and rely on another person’s actions.

Erratic and frequent changes of mind could negatively impact relationships and people may avoid doing this to improve their social integration.

The future of changing your mind

The science of changes of mind is an exciting field of research, developing at a fast pace.

Future developments in the field might focus on identifying specific brain activity markers of subsequent correct changes of mind. If reliable and valid markers are found, they could be harnessed to help people become experts on when they should change their minds to achieve better professional and social outcomes.

Oh, and coming back to the Monty Hall problem: if you ever do find yourself offered this choice by a game show host, you should definitely change your mind. In this scenario, for mathematical reasons, switching away from your first pick will double your chances of winning.

Dragan Rangelov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What actually happens in your brain when you change your mind? – https://theconversation.com/what-actually-happens-in-your-brain-when-you-change-your-mind-263907

September 5, 2025

As Trump abandons the rulebook on trade, does free trade have a future elsewhere?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Peter Draper, Professor, and Executive Director: Institute for International Trade, and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre of Trade and Environment, University of Adelaide

The global trading system that promoted free trade and underpinned global prosperity for 80 years now stands at a crossroads.

Recent trade policy developments have introduced unprecedented levels of uncertainty – not least, the upheaval caused by United States President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime.

This is presenting some fundamental changes to the way nations interact economically and politically.

The free trade ideal

Free trade envisions movement of goods and services across borders with minimal restrictions. That’s in contrast to protectionist policies such as tariffs or import quotas.

However, free trade has never existed in pure form. The rules-based global trading system emerged from the ashes of the second world war. It was designed to progressively reduce trade barriers while letting countries maintain national sovereignty.

This system began with the 1947 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which was signed by 23 countries in Geneva, Switzerland.

Through successive rounds of negotiation, this treaty achieved substantial reductions in tariffs on merchandise goods. It ultimately laid the groundwork for the establishment of the World Trade Organization in 1995.

‘Plumbing of the trading system’

The World Trade Organization introduced binding mechanisms to settle trade disputes between countries. It also expanded coverage of rules-based trade to services, intellectual property and investment measures.

Colloquially known as “the plumbing of the trading system”, this framework enabled global trade to expand dramatically.

Merchandise exports grew from US$10.2 trillion (A$15.6 trillion) in 2005 to more than US$25 trillion (A$38.3 trillion) in 2022.

Yet despite decades of liberalisation, truly free trade remains elusive. Protectionism has persisted, not only through traditional tariffs but also non-tariff measures such as technical standards. Increasingly, national security restrictions have also played a role.

Trump’s new trade doctrine

Economist Richard Baldwin has argued the current trade disruption stems from the Trump administration’s “grievance doctrine”.

This doctrine doesn’t view trade as an exchange between countries with mutual benefits. Rather, it sees it as as a zero-sum competition, what Trump describes as other nations “ripping off” the United States.

Trade deficits – where the total value of a country’s imports exceeds the value of its exports – aren’t regarded as economic outcomes of the trade system. Instead, they’re seen as theft.

Likewise, the doctrine sees international agreements as instruments of disadvantage rather than mutual benefit.

The US retreats from leadership

Trump has cast himself as a figure resetting a system he says is rigged against the US.

Once, the US provided defence, economic and political security, stable currency arrangements, and predictable market access. Now, it increasingly acts as an economic bully seeking absolute advantage.

This shift – from “global insurer to extractor of profit” – has created uncertainty that extends far beyond its relationships with individual countries.

Trump’s policies have explicitly challenged core principles of the World Trade Organization.

Examples include his ignoring the principle of “most-favoured nation”, where countries can’t make different rules for different trading partners, and “tariff bindings” – which limit global tariff rates.

Some trade policy analysts have even suggested the US might withdraw from the World Trade Organization. Doing so would complete its formal rejection of the global trading rules-based order.

China’s challenge and the US response

China’s emergence as the world’s manufacturing superpower has fundamentally altered global trade dynamics. China is on track to produce 45% of global industrial output by 2030.

China’s manufacturing surpluses are approaching US$1 trillion annually (A$1.5 trillion), aided by big subsidies and market protections.

For the Trump administration, this represents a fundamental clash between US market-capitalism and China’s state-capitalism.

How ‘middle powers’ are responding

Many countries maintain significant relationships with both China and the US. This creates pressure to choose sides in an increasingly polarised environment.

Australia exemplifies these tensions. It maintains defence and security ties with the US, notably through the AUKUS agreement. But Australia has also built significant economic relationships with China, despite recent disputes. China remains Australia’s largest two-way trading partner.

This fragmentation, however, creates opportunities for cooperation between “middle powers”. European and Asian countries are increasingly exploring partnerships, bypassing traditional US-led frameworks.

However, these alternatives cannot fully replicate the scale and advantages of the US-led system.

Alternatives won’t fix the system

At a summit this week, China, Russia, India and other non-Western members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization voiced their support for the multilateral trading system. A joint statement reaffirmed World Trade Organization principles while criticising unilateral trade measures.

This represents an attempt to claim global leadership while the US pursues its own policies with individual countries.

The larger “BRICS+” bloc is a grouping of countries that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Indonesia. This group has frequently voiced its opposition to Western-dominated institutions and called for alternative governance structures.

However, BRICS+ lacks the institutional depth to function as a genuine alternative to the World Trade Organization-centred trading system. It lacks enforceable trade rules, systematic monitoring mechanisms, or conflict resolution procedures.

Where is the trading system headed?

The global trading system has been instrumental in lifting more than a billion people out of extreme poverty since 1990. But the old system of US-led multilateralism has ended. What replaces it remains unclear.

One possible outcome is that we see a gradual weakening of global institutions like the World Trade Organization, while regional arrangements become more important. This would preserve elements of rules-based trade while accommodating competition between great powers.

“Coalitions of like-minded nations” could set high policy standards in specific areas, while remaining open to other countries willing to meet those standards.

These coalitions could focus on freer trade, regulatory harmonisation, or security restrictions depending on their interests. That could help maintain the plumbing in a global trade system.

Nathan Howard Gray receives funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Peter Draper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As Trump abandons the rulebook on trade, does free trade have a future elsewhere? – https://theconversation.com/as-trump-abandons-the-rulebook-on-trade-does-free-trade-have-a-future-elsewhere-264338

September 4, 2025

Giorgio Armani: adiós al arquitecto de la elegancia moderna

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Pedro Mir, Profesor de Marketing – Comportamiento del Consumidor, Universidad de Navarra

Con el fallecimiento, a los 91 años, de Giorgio Armani, se cierra un capítulo dorado de la alta costura y se consolida el legado de un visionario que redefinió para siempre los códigos de la elegancia contemporánea. La muerte del diseñador constituye un momento crucial para un imperio que genera ingresos anuales de 2 300 millones de euros.

El revolucionario silencioso

Armani transformó la moda con sus siluetas no estructuradas, desafiando décadas de tradición sartorial. En una época en la que las hombreras dominaban las pasarelas y los trajes masculinos seguían códigos rígidos victorianos, el maestro milanés propuso algo radicalmente diferente: la sofisticación a través de la simplicidad.

Su genio residió en comprender que el verdadero lujo no gritaba, sino que susurraba. Las chaquetas Armani, con su estructura relajada y sus líneas fluidas, liberaron tanto al hombre como a la mujer del corsé de la formalidad extrema. Era, en esencia, el concepto de elegancia discreta convertido en un imperio multimillonario.

Cómo vestir los sueños de millones de personas

Armani es reconocido por haber inventado la moda de alfombra roja, un logro que trasciende la industria textil para adentrarse en el territorio de la cultura popular. Desde Richard Gere en American Gigolo hasta las estrellas de hoy, el diseñador italiano entendió que vestir a Hollywood significaba vestir los sueños de millones de personas.

Sus creaciones no solo adornaban cuerpos; construían personajes, definían épocas y establecían estándares de aspiración global. Cada traje de Armani en pantalla se convertía en un manifiesto silencioso sobre qué significaba ser elegante, poderoso y deseable.

Armani ayudó a definir el eslogan made in Italy como sinónimo de calidad para los consumidores, elevando la manufactura italiana a niveles de prestigio mundial. Su contribución trasciende la moda: fue un embajador cultural que exportó la sofisticación mediterránea a mercados globales, desde Tokio hasta Nueva York.

El imperio Armani no es solo un testimonio de éxito comercial, sino de la capacidad de una visión artística coherente para transformarse en un fenómeno cultural duradero.

El minimalista máximo

En una industria obsesionada con la ostentación, Armani abrazó la sobriedad como filosofía creativa. Sus paletas neutras, sus texturas exquisitas y sus cortes impecables demostraron que se podía ser revolucionario siendo sutil. Cada prenda era un ejercicio de sustracción: eliminar lo innecesario hasta alcanzar la esencia pura del diseño.

Esta aproximación minimalista no era frialdad, sino calidez destilada. Sus prendas envolvían al usuario en una segunda piel de confianza, transformando la vestimenta de mero atuendo a armadura psicológica.

Durante más de cinco décadas, Armani moldeó la elegancia moderna con una claridad de visión que se expandió mucho más allá de la moda.

Su influencia se extiende desde la arquitectura de sus boutiques hasta la filosofía de vida que representaba: la belleza encontrada en la simplicidad, el poder expresado con moderación. Hoy, mientras el mundo de la moda procesa esta pérdida irreparable, queda claro que Giorgio Armani no solo vistió cuerpos: vistió una época.

Su legado perdurará en cada silueta que celebre la elegancia por encima de la exhibición, en cada prenda que prefiera la sutileza al grito, en cada diseñador que entienda que la verdadera revolución, a veces, llega susurrando.

Il Signore Armani, como era conocido cariñosamente, nos deja no solo un imperio comercial, sino una lección maestra sobre cómo la visión artística auténtica puede transformar industrias enteras. En un mundo cada vez más ruidoso, su voz silenciosa resuena ahora con más fuerza que nunca.

CEO y único accionista de su empresa

El imperio Armani no era solo una marca, sino un ecosistema financiero meticulosamente estructurado. La arquitectura del negocio refleja la visión estratégica de su fundador: Giorgio Armani como la marca insignia de alta costura, Emporio Armani posicionada en el segmento accesible de lujo, y Armani Exchange capturando el mercado joven. Esta segmentación permitió al grupo penetrar múltiples demografías sin canibalizar sus propias marcas.

En una industria dominada por conglomerados como LVMH y Kering, Armani representaba la excepción: era tanto CEO como único accionista de la empresa, manteniendo un control absoluto sobre su visión creativa y estrategia comercial.

Esta independencia no fue solo ideológica, sino financieramente astuta. Sin presiones de accionistas externos, el grupo pudo mantener márgenes sanos y reinvertir consistentemente en su infraestructura global.

La empresa podría tener un valor actual de entre 6 000 y 7 000 millones de euros. Independientemente de la cifra exacta, Armani se consolidó como uno de los empresarios más exitosos de la historia de la moda.

Expansión estratégica más allá del textil

El genio financiero de Armani se manifestó en su capacidad de diversificación. La compañía opera una gama de cafés en todo el mundo, además de planear junto con Emaar Properties lanzar una cadena hotelera y resorts de lujo en grandes ciudades como Nueva York y Tokio. Esta expansión es la extensión lógica de una marca que había logrado trascender la moda para convertirse en sinónimo de un estilo de vida aspiracional.

El negocio Armani se había expandido hacia la música, el deporte y la gastronomía italiana, creando un ecosistema de marcas que se reforzaba mutuamente y maximizaba el valor de la propiedad intelectual.

Mientras otros grupos de lujo sufrían las fluctuaciones del mercado, Armani demostró una resistencia excepcional. El grupo de lujo italiano creció sus ingresos un 16,5 % en 2022 a pesar de la volatilidad del mercado. La estrategia conservadora del grupo, manteniendo una reserva de efectivo de más de mil millones, le permitió navegar crisis económicas sin depender de financiación externa o socios estratégicos. Esta liquidez no solo proporcionaba estabilidad, sino poder de negociación y capacidad de inversión contracíclica.

Un modelo de negocio que otros intentaron copiar

El éxito financiero de Armani no fue casualidad. Su modelo combinaba control vertical de la producción, expansión geográfica estratégica y una gestión de marca que maximizaba el precio de calidad superior.

Hoy, mientras el mundo de la moda procesa esta pérdida, los analistas financieros reconocen en Armani no solo a un diseñador, sino a un estratega que construyó una de las empresas más rentables y estables del sector de lujo.

Su capacidad para mantener márgenes superiores al 20 % durante décadas, expandirse globalmente sin perder identidad de marca y resistir las presiones de consolidación sectorial convierte su legado en un caso de estudio obligatorio para cualquier escuela de negocios.

El imperio que deja Armani no es solo un conjunto de activos, sino la materialización de una visión que entendió que el verdadero lujo no se compra, se construye. Marca por marca, tienda por tienda, temporada tras temporada.

Pedro Mir no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

– ref. Giorgio Armani: adiós al arquitecto de la elegancia moderna – https://theconversation.com/giorgio-armani-adios-al-arquitecto-de-la-elegancia-moderna-264659

September 4, 2025

Fashion icon Giorgio Armani’s impact and legacy will be felt for decades to come

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By John Potvin, Professor, Art and Design History, Concordia University

Despite the hyperbolic and fleeting tendencies of the fashion industry, few designers have had the impact of Giorgio Armani, who has died in Milan at the age of 91.

The new look and attitude the designer offered 50 years ago is today largely taken for granted and, at first glance, seems rather unassuming. But from the outset, Armani’s focus and determination was to provide his customers with an easier way of dressing that was at once practical, sophisticated and thoughtful, yet unpretentious, powerful and subtle.

His suits required little effort on the part of the wearer, whose individuality and identity were meant to shine rather than being overwhelmed by his clothes. His approach to tailoring coincided with the growing awareness of health and fitness in the 1970s and 1980s.

Armani’s body-conscious approach soon garnered attention in Hollywood, and he was asked to provide the wardrobe for Richard Gere in the now cult-classic 1980 film American Gigolo.

Humble beginnings

Born in 1934 in the small northern Italian town of Piacenza, Armani was originally destined to be a country family doctor. Before founding his own fashion house in 1975 relatively late in life, at the age of 41, Armani began in the fashion industry as a window dresser for the Milanese department store La Rinascente.

In 1961, he was hired by stylist and businessman Nino Cerruti to work in the Cerruti family’s textile factory. This new and fertile environment proved seminal to Armani’s future in textile development and would determine his own aesthetic formula.

While working at Cerruti, designing for the firm’s Hitman menswear collection, Armani proverbially and literally took the stuffing out of traditional Italian tailoring, offering men a modern attitude and a novel, less rigid way of moving and living in their jackets and suits.

Quickly, and throughout his 50-year career, the now iconic multi-purpose Armani jacket provided men and women alike armour as much as comfort and support for the body underneath.

Encouraged by his romantic and business partner Sergio Galeotti, an architect who remained Armani’s business partner until his untimely death in 1984, Armani officially founded his own fashion house in July 1975.

He quickly changed the vocabulary of both menswear and womenswear: he incorporated and adapted textiles traditionally reserved for men’s tailoring for his womenswear collections while at the same time softening the fabrics and silhouettes of his menswear. Women appeared stronger, independent, resilient and ready to take on the workplace of the 1980s, while the Armani man was less aggressive and instead attractive and glamourous.

Conquering Hollywood

For American Gigolo, Armani sidestepped vulgarity and provided the lead character with a fluid and unstructured swagger and sex appeal.

Hollywood was immediately hooked. Armani had been enamoured by the classic era of cinema as a child and the star quality of actors like Katharine Hepburn, Cary Grant, Geta Garbo and Marlene Dietrich, so he was keenly aware of the value and cultural potential of not only dressing actors in films, but also saw the red carpet as what was, until then, an untapped resource.

Armani soon had a major impact on red carpet dressing, so much so that industry bible Women’s Wear Daily dubbed the 1990 Oscars the “Armani Awards.”

This red carpet transformation was the result of Armani’s love of cinema and his business acumen as much it was his collaboration with Wanda McDaniel, an American whom he recruited in 1988, the same year he opened his first boutique in Beverly Hills.

As a social columnist and well connected to Hollywood’s elite, McDaniel was hired as a special liaison to Armani’s increasing film industry clientele. Their collaboration was a force to be reckoned with in the industry.

Armani’s personal abode

Fuelled by a steadfast drive, the personal and professional was indistinguishable for Armani, so much so that the designer’s palazzo at 21 via Borgonuovo in the heart of Milan served as both his home as well as the theatre where he staged his men’s and women’s runway collections from 1984 until 2000.

The space provided a personal and intimate invitation to more than just fashion shows, but a lifestyle empire in the making.

In addition to co-curating a 25-year retrospective exhibition at the Guggenheim Museum in New York, the year 2000 also saw the designer transform the brand’s DNA into a global lifestyle proposition that today encompasses hotels, spas, Michelin Star-awarded restaurants, makeup, jewellery, home furnishings and chocolates, among other items.

From the unstructured jacket that’s worn with ease to the social media frenzy garnered by red carpets, Armani’s imprint can be seen in every corner of the fashion industry and around the globe. His impact and legacy will be felt for decades to come.

John Potvin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Fashion icon Giorgio Armani’s impact and legacy will be felt for decades to come – https://theconversation.com/fashion-icon-giorgio-armanis-impact-and-legacy-will-be-felt-for-decades-to-come-264653

September 4, 2025

Volcans de boue et séismes silencieux : quand les ondes d’un séisme ont des effets à très grande distance

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Cécile Doubre, Physicienne du Globe, Université de Strasbourg

Un volcan de boue en Azerbaïdjan. Chmee2/Wikipédia, CC BY-SA

Les tremblements de terre ne restent jamais isolés : ils peuvent déclencher toute une cascade d’autres phénomènes géologiques, un effet que les chercheurs étudient depuis des décennies. Une nouvelle étude confirme que les fluides, comme l’eau, jouent un rôle majeur dans la résistance de la croûte terrestre aux forces tectoniques à l’origine des séismes.

La Terre ne reste pas immobile après un grand séisme. À proximité de l’épicentre d’un fort séisme, des dégâts importants peuvent être provoqués par les secousses sismiques (destructions de routes ou d’immeubles, par exemple). Et il n’est pas rare d’observer également des glissements de terrain. Le choc principal peut aussi déstabiliser les failles environnantes, et créer ainsi de nouveaux points de rupture, appelés les « répliques ».

Beaucoup plus loin, là où personne ne ressent la moindre secousse, les instruments détectent une augmentation des petits tremblements de terre, surtout dans les régions volcaniques et géothermiques. Récemment, on a aussi pu observer des mouvements le long de zone de subduction, situés à plusieurs milliers de kilomètres de l’épicentre d’un séisme ayant eu lieu quelques minutes avant, interrogeant ainsi sur le lien mécanique entre ces deux phénomènes.

Dans notre article, publié cette semaine dans Science, nous révélons comment les grands tremblements de terre qui ont frappé la Turquie en 2023 ont produit des effets imprévus dans le bassin de Kura en Azerbaijan, à 1 000 kilomètres de l’épicentre : éruptions de volcans de boue (grands édifices faits de boue consolidée à la suite d’éruptions successives), gonflement d’une nappe d’hydrocarbures et séismes lents (également appelés « silencieux », c’est-à-dire sans émissions d’ondes sismiques).

Ces observations nous ont permis de mettre en évidence de manière quasi directe, et c’est bien là la nouveauté de cette étude, le rôle fondamental que jouent les fluides présents dans la croûte terrestre (de l’eau, par exemple) sur la résistance de celle-ci et, par conséquent, sur l’activité sismique.

Des observations inattendues à 1 000 kilomètres des deux séismes turcs

Dans le cadre de sa thèse sur la déformation lente dans le Caucase oriental, notre doctorant, Zaur Baraymov a traité de nombreuses images satellitaires radar de l’Agence spatiale européenne. En les comparant une à une (technique de géophysique appelée interférométrie radar), il a été étonné d’observer un signal le long de plusieurs failles dans la période correspondant aux deux grands séismes de Kahramanmaras, en Turquie, en février 2023.

Grâce à cette compilation d’images satellites et aux enregistrements sismologiques locaux, nous montrons que ces grands séismes ont déclenché, à plus de 1 000 kilomètres de distance, des gonflements et des éruptions de plusieurs dizaines de volcans de boue ainsi que des « séismes lents » sur plusieurs failles : ces glissements ont lieu trop lentement pour émettre eux-mêmes des ondes sismiques.

Que s’est-il passé ?

Sous l’effet du mouvement continu des plaques tectoniques à la surface de la Terre, des forces s’accumulent dans la croûte terrestre. Au sud-est de la Turquie, les plaques arabique et anatolienne se déplacent l’une par rapport à l’autre et la faille est-anatolienne résiste à ce mouvement. La majeure partie du temps, les failles sismiques sont « bloquées », et rien ne se passe… jusqu’au moment où ça lâche.

En février 2023, ce système de failles a brutalement glissé de plusieurs mètres, deux fois en quelques heures. Ce mouvement brutal est comparable au relâchement soudain d’un élastique : lorsqu’il se détend d’un coup, il rebondit dans tous les sens. Dans le cas d’un séisme, des ondes sismiques sont émises dans toutes les directions de l’espace. Typiquement, les secousses sont très fortes et peuvent détruire des bâtiments à proximité de l’épicentre, mais, à 1 000 kilomètres de distance, ces mouvements sont atténués et ne sont plus ressentis par les humains, même si les sismomètres, très sensibles, enregistrent des vibrations.

En 2023, au moment où les ondes atténuées du séisme turc ont traversé le bassin de Kura en Azerbaïdjan, à 1 000 kilomètres de l’épicentre, quelque six minutes après le séisme, nous avons détecté, sur des images satellites, du mouvement sur sept failles tectoniques. Celles-ci ont glissé silencieusement de plusieurs centimètres, sans émettre d’ondes sismiques.

carte des 2 séismes et des effets observés à distance — Les séismes de Turquie, en 2023, ont eu des effets inattendus à 1 000 kilomètres de là, à l’ouest de la mer Caspienne, dans les contreforts du Caucase.
Romain Jolivet, Fourni par l’auteur

En même temps, une cinquantaine de volcans de boue sont entrés en éruption en crachant de la boue, tandis que d’autres se déformaient.

Nous avons même mesuré le soulèvement du sol de quelques centimètres au-dessus d’un gisement d’hydrocarbures situé à l’aplomb d’une des failles activées.

Jamais une telle accumulation de phénomènes déclenchés par un même séisme n’avait été observée.

Comment un séisme peut-il déclencher de tels phénomènes à distance ?

La concomitance des éruptions de volcans de boue et des glissements silencieux sur les failles met en évidence le rôle des fluides dans ces déclenchements.

Plus précisément, observer ces volcans de boue s’activer et le champ d’hydrocarbures gonfler indique que la pression des fluides dans les roches du sous-sol a augmenté au passage des ondes sismiques. Cet effet est connu, notamment le phénomène appelé « liquéfaction » qui se produit sur les sols saturés en eau, perdant leur stabilité à la suite d’un séisme.

L’augmentation de la pression des fluides est aussi connue pour fragiliser les failles et les conduire à relâcher de la contrainte en glissant. De plus, il est bien établi qu’une pression de fluide élevée favorise un glissement lent sur les failles, qui ne génère pas d’ondes sismiques. Les ondes sismiques, en passant, ont donc fait grimper la pression des fluides dans la croûte, occasionnant à la fois les éruptions de boue et les glissements asismiques sur ces failles.

Cette étude constitue la première observation directe de l’influence des fluides présents dans la croûte sur le déclenchement à distance des séismes lents.

Le rôle des fluides dans la propagation des ondes sismiques sur de grandes distances

Depuis longtemps, les géophysiciens soupçonnaient que les fluides jouent un rôle dans une observation intrigante : comment de simples ondes sismiques, qui génèrent de faibles contraintes de quelques kilopascals, peuvent-elles déclencher des glissements sur des failles pourtant capables de résister à des contraintes bien supérieures, de quelques mégapascals ?

Nos observations apportent la réponse. L’augmentation de pression de fluide peut permettre d’atteindre l’échelle des mégapascals et d’activer les failles présentes dans la croûte saturée en fluides.

Il reste maintenant à généraliser ces observations. Toutes les failles sont-elles baignées de fluides circulant dans les roches de la croûte ? Si oui, quelle est la nature de ces fluides ? Nous savons qu’il y a de l’eau dans la croûte, et particulièrement dans les sédiments de la région du bassin de Kura, mais nos observations montrent que les hydrocarbures peuvent aussi être impliqués.

Des analyses géochimiques suggèrent même que des fluides, comme de l’eau chargée en dioxyde de carbone, pourraient remonter du manteau. La question reste ouverte…

Le projet Évolution spatiale et temporelle de la déformation sur et hors faille – SaTellite est soutenu par l’Agence nationale de la recherche (ANR) qui finance en France la recherche sur projets. L’ANR a pour mission de soutenir et de promouvoir le développement de recherches fondamentales et finalisées dans toutes les disciplines, et de renforcer le dialogue entre science et société. Pour en savoir plus, consultez le site de l’ANR.

Jusqu’à fin 2024, Alessia Maggi a été conseillère en matière de formations universitaires à l’Université Franco-Azerbaijanaise, un partenariat entre l’université de Strasbourg et la Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University (ASOIU).

Romain Jolivet a été membre de l’Institut Universitaire de France entre 2019 et 2024. Il a reçu des financements de l’ANR ainsi que l’ERC.

Cécile Doubre et Luis Rivera ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.

– ref. Volcans de boue et séismes silencieux : quand les ondes d’un séisme ont des effets à très grande distance – https://theconversation.com/volcans-de-boue-et-seismes-silencieux-quand-les-ondes-dun-seisme-ont-des-effets-a-tres-grande-distance-264526

September 4, 2025

Respirar aire limpio, un derecho universal que se sigue vulnerando en todo el mundo

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Manuel Pujadas Cordero, Jefe de la Unidad de Caracterización y Control de la Contaminación Atmosférica, Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (CIEMAT)

Tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial no resultó demasiado difícil consensuar a nivel internacional que el mantenimiento de la paz y la seguridad entre las naciones, el fomento del desarrollo económico y social y la promoción de la cooperación debían ser objetivos prioritarios y permanentes. La redacción y firma por representantes de 50 países de la Carta de las Naciones Unidas, en vigor desde el 24 de octubre de 1945, supuso la base fundacional de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU), cuya Asamblea General consensuó y adoptó, tres años después, la famosa Declaración Universal de los Derechos Humanos (DUDH).

Analizar los treinta artículos que constituyen ese imponente listado de derechos (políticos, sociales, económicos y culturales), capitales para todos los seres humanos, quizás nos permitiera identificar algunos otros que, dadas las circunstancias, no fueron considerados entonces prioritarios, aunque sin duda lo son.

Me refiero, por ejemplo, al derecho a respirar aire saludable o al derecho a beber agua realmente potable. Se podría decir que, por su naturaleza, ambos estarían implícitamente recogidos en el derecho a la vida, que lógicamente encabeza el listado de la DUDH. Pero lo cierto es que, casi 80 años después de aquella firma, para muchos millones de personas en todo el mundo se trata de aspiraciones tan básicas como inalcanzables.

Llegados a este punto y puestos a defender con decisión estos derechos tan primarios, antes resulta imprescindible definirlos y acotarlos técnicamente. Y para ello hay que responder a la siguiente cuestión: ¿en qué condiciones el aire o el agua dejan de ser aptos para el consumo? En una primera reacción podríamos pensar que se trata de una pregunta retórica porque su respuesta ya se conoce, sin embargo, nada más lejos de la realidad.

¿Qué es el aire?

Centrándonos en la primera parte de esa cuestión, conseguir establecer los límites físico-químicos mínimos que debe cumplir el aire respirable es un reto científico de primer orden.

El aire ambiente es una mezcla compleja de constituyentes, gaseosos y no gaseosos, que ha ido evolucionando a lo largo de la historia de nuestro planeta y que sigue en plena transformación.

La intuición llevó a Hipócrates (siglo IV a. e. c.) a relacionar ciertos problemas de salud con respirar aire “sucio”, pero no fue hasta el siglo XIX pasado cuando se comenzó a entender realmente qué era el aire y sus implicaciones.

Primero se identificaron los componentes gaseosos mayoritarios (nitrógeno, oxígeno y argón) y ya en el siglo XX se descubrió que estos se mantienen en proporciones bastante estables en la troposfera desde hace al menos 100 millones de años. Se identificó el papel del oxígeno como sostén de la vida aeróbica y, poco a poco, se fueron descubriendo otros muchos constituyentes minoritarios y sus diferentes papeles y efectos (sobre la salud humana, la biodiversidad, el clima, etc.).

Establecer este tipo de relaciones causales es una tarea muy compleja y en continua evolución que se viene desarrollando desde mediados del siglo XX, momento en el que nació el concepto de “calidad del aire”.

El Día Internacional del Aire Limpio

Gracias al trabajo de físicos y químicos atmosféricos, biólogos, médicos, ambientalistas, etc., se ha avanzado muchísimo en el conocimiento de la atmósfera, en general, y del aire ambiente y sus interacciones con la biosfera en particular. Esto ha permitido ir acotando los límites que deben establecerse para las concentraciones ambientales de aquellos constituyentes que por sus efectos negativos sobre la salud y el medio ambiente identificamos como contaminantes atmosféricos más peligrosos, como las partículas, el monóxido de carbono y el dióxido de nitrógeno.

Tras el inmenso golpe de la covid-19 en 2020, la ONU declaró el 7 de septiembre como el Día Internacional del Aire Limpio (“para un cielo azul”, según reza el eslogan). Seguramente, volver a constatar las terribles consecuencias de respirar en todo el mundo aire contaminado (en este caso biológicamente), contribuyó a esa decisión que, desde mi punto de vista, viene a reconocer implícitamente, por fin, la universalidad del derecho a respirar aire limpio y saludable.

Posteriormente, en 2022, la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas tomó una decisión histórica al reconocer que todos los humanos tenemos el derecho a acceder a un medio ambiente saludable. Esta vez el reconocimiento fue explícito y amplio, pero era “solo el principio”, como advirtió el secretario general de la ONU António Guterres, ya que requiere que todos los países apliquen medidas para “hacerlo una realidad para todo el mundo, en todas partes”.

Diferencias entre países

Décadas antes de este reconocimiento de la ONU, las recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y de muchas agencias medioambientales de distintos países evidenciaron la necesidad imperiosa de controlar la presencia en el aire ambiente de ciertos contaminantes (actualmente: partículas PM10 y PM2.5, ozono, dióxido de nitrógeno, dióxido de azufre, monóxido de carbono, etc.).

Leer más:
Efectos de las partículas en la salud: no solo el tamaño importa

Todo esto se fue implementando principalmente en zonas del mundo altamente desarrolladas, como EE. UU., Europa, Canadá, Japón, etc., a través de la adopción de estrictos marcos regulatorios y de fuertes mecanismos de control, tanto para las emisiones atmosféricas contaminantes de origen antrópico como para vigilar la calidad del aire, en un esfuerzo progresivo y permanente. Baste recordar, por ejemplo, que la última Directiva europea de Calidad del Aire es de octubre de 2024.

Fruto de estas iniciativas, la calidad del aire en esas áreas ha mejorado significativamente respecto a la existente hace cuatro o cinco décadas, y con ello la vida de muchísimas personas. No obstante, a estas alturas del siglo XXI, la experiencia cotidiana de otros muchos millones de personas, generalmente en países desfavorecidos y casi olvidados, es radicalmente distinta.

En esos entornos la calidad del aire, sencillamente, no es una prioridad y la población no puede ejercer su derecho básico a respirar con seguridad. En consecuencia, sus cifras de morbilidad y mortalidad prematura debidas a la contaminación del aire son escandalosas y periódicamente denunciadas por la OMS en informes oficiales demoledores.

Ante este panorama, no podemos resignarnos a que una gran parte de la población mundial siga sin poder ejercer el derecho básico a respirar un aire “razonablemente” limpio. Es inaceptable que desde su nacimiento muchísimas personas vean incrementar de manera continua e inexorable el riesgo de contraer enfermedades muy graves o de morir muy prematuramente por respirar sistemáticamente aire contaminado.

Por ello, los científicos e ingenieros tenemos que seguir trabajando sin descanso para mejorar la base de conocimiento en todos los aspectos relacionados con este problema y para encontrar soluciones urgentes. Como sociedad del siglo XXI, globalizada para tantas cosas, no deberíamos ignorar ni permitir este tremendo drama global.

Manuel Pujadas Cordero no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

– ref. Respirar aire limpio, un derecho universal que se sigue vulnerando en todo el mundo – https://theconversation.com/respirar-aire-limpio-un-derecho-universal-que-se-sigue-vulnerando-en-todo-el-mundo-264287

September 4, 2025

How Reform is pitching its party conference as an American-style rally

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Christopher Burden, PhD Candidate in Comparative European Populisms, Aston University

Having spent the summer holding weekly press conferences, Reform UK is seeking to drive the political agenda into conference season by holding its annual gathering before Labour and the Conservatives have theirs.

The party will meet at the Birmingham National Exhibition Centre, with a bigger agenda and line-up than previous years. What’s also notable is just how different this conference will be compared to the traditional events held by the other parties.

Labour will be in Liverpool voting on policy, debating motions and deciding committee positions while the Conservatives will be in Manchester, unveiling their policies for the year following difficult local elections. Fundamentally, these conferences are expositions to the membership, followed mainly by journalists, politicos and the motivated base.

Reform is using its conference to draw public attention. So far, that mission has manifested in staging that feels more American than British.

The conference website features images of Farage surrounded by indoor fireworks, with a rolling ticker listing key speakers. Tickets are “SOLD OUT” – although “platinum” packages are still available for £2,500, which buys you fast-track entry and champagne breakfasts with party grandees.

Meanwhile, cinematic trailers on YouTube feature yet more flashing lights, sweeping spotlights, rousing music, and slo-mo montages of Reform UK politicians delivering impassioned speeches.

Unlike traditional conference formats – speeches, debates, motions and amendments – Reform is highlighting personality-driven performances. While the Conservative conference is promoting a “thought-provoking fringe programme”, Reform is promising entertainment.

Their proposed line-up features controversial TV presenter Jeremy Kyle, former host of an eponymous 2000s TV show which was once described by a judge as “human bear-baiting”. In the video announcing his involvement, Kyle says: “It won’t be boring, trust me.”

“It’s quite interesting – when you say party conference,” he adds. “This is gonna be a party.” Having a celebrity speaker trailed in this way – and to have him redefine what the “party” in “party conference” means ahead of time marks a significant cultural shift.

Kyle – and indeed everyone involved – seems to be actively crossing traditional conference boundaries between the politicians on stage and their audiences, drawing upon the transgressive aesthetics of populism.

These tactics are unusual for Britain but normal in the US. Journalist Tucker Carlson has long performed a Kyle-type role for the Republicans. Reform appears to be replicating this approach in the UK, integrating household names into the political fold, normalising the concept of politics as something for everyone.

These spectacles are for those who may not necessarily know what they want but know that they want something different. We might wonder if Reform minds that people question how much substance there is to its policies, so long as they’ve got people discussing their agenda.

Reform is threading forms of populism normally found in the digital realm into its conference agenda. This form of reciprocal populism seeks to reconcile the needs of the politician with the wants of the audience. It doesn’t necessarily matter what is promised, so long as the audience feels as if they have stock in that conversation.

At this conference, expect audience participation and soundbite straplines. We’ll see attendees sporting “Farage Number 10” football shirts. Just as Trump fans wear red Maga baseball caps at his rallies, Farage is seeking to brand his voters with his products. Maga has successfully transitioned from party slogan to household brand and Reform is clearly trying to follow suit.

Will it work?

On inspection, these American branding tactics, rousing patriotic music and bombastic speeches prove a relatively thin populist fabric. They are imported from successful campaigns abroad and mapped over a Britain the party wishes to conjure rather than necessarily reflecting the one that exists.

Policy-light infotainment and “mega-rallies” remain distinctly foreign to the UK audience and may later prove to be an unwelcome change in a country seeking stability in complicated geopolitical times.

The celebrity endorsements aren’t themselves odd, nor are the gimmicks entirely unheard of in British politics. After all, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey spent much of the 2024 election campaign plummeting down waterslides and falling off paddle boards.

However, Reform UK is attempting something quite different when it emulates the brash, loud populism more often seen in the US. It’s just a style at odds with British sensitivities.

For instance, while dismissing net zero as nonsense, Reform has called for Britain to open up sites across northern England and Wales for fracking. Richard Tice directly quotes the American president, with a call to “drill baby drill”.

The rejection of net zero in this way, and the calling for greater use of fossil fuels, comes straight from Trumpian playbook but stands starkly out of kilter with British public opinion.

Similarly, calling for the mass deportation of 600,000 migrants mimics what is currently happening in the US. But while immigration has captured the national narrative, and has been a long feature of Reform campaigning, the opinions of the British public are far more nuanced than supporting wholesale repatriation of hundreds of thousands of people .

It’s clear that on these topics, which are to be discussed at the conference, Reform is not necessarily seeking to represent mainstream views as they exist. Instead it is trying to shift what’s known as the Overton window, the range of what is seen as acceptable views, in order to present these issues to mainstream voters who feel disaffected by the traditional parties.

The mainstream must not underestimate this threat. Reform has undertaken a significant effort to professionalise the party, constructing an inner circle of financiers, communications experts and advisors. While the character remains definitively populist, they possess the architectures and platforms needed to effectively campaign and operate.

The party is well aware that within the first-past-the-post system, where tiny leads deliver thumping majorities, they need to achieve only a broad support, rather than total conviction. Not everyone needs to be dazzled by this theatrical party conference – just enough to tip the balance.

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Christopher Burden is affiliated with the Labour Party.

– ref. How Reform is pitching its party conference as an American-style rally – https://theconversation.com/how-reform-is-pitching-its-party-conference-as-an-american-style-rally-264458

September 4, 2025

Long Story Short: an appealing but unsuccessful animated fantasy of memory and liberalism

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alexander Sergeant, Lecturer in Digital Media Production, University of Westminster

Long Story Short is the latest animated series from Raphael Bob-Waksberg, the talented showrunner who is best known for his early Netflix hit BoJack Horseman. As fans of his previous work will know, Bob-Waksberg’s sensibility seems to come through an eclectic mix of absurdist humour and raw, emotional realism.

BoJack started life as a madcap stoner comedy about a talking horse acting like an entitled fratboy. By the end of its six seasons, the show had evolved into a psychological drama about a supremely damaged man struggling in vain to heal himself, albeit a man who happened to have a horse’s head.

In contrast to BoJack’s evolutionary quality, Long Story Short starts exactly where it means to start. This is ironic, perhaps, given that the show’s central conceit is that it tells the story of a multigeneration family in a non-chronological manner.

In episode one, we are introduced the Schwoopers, a dysfunctional middle-class Jewish family consisting of matriarch Naomi (Lisa Edelstein), patriarch Elliot (Paul Reiser), eldest son Avi (Ben Feldman), middle child Shira (Abbi Jacobson) and youngest Yoshi (Max Greenfield). Darting across decades of time and generations of tension, we witness couples meet, marry, divorce and die – sometimes all in the same episode and almost always not in that order.

The show possesses a primarily emotional rather than rational logic to it that fits nicely with it being an animation. It’s often said that animation possesses a quality that makes it particularly good for processing emotional trauma.

The essence of the medium involves purposely selecting moments in the world to bring to life, while leaving others behind. This process of self-conscious selection provides a space to order and sort the world in a manner comparable to something like therapy, processing the information differently through the act of bringing it to life onscreen. BoJack did this particularly well.

Drawing on animation’s long-established history of anthropomorphic characters, BoJack was set in a confusing world of animals and humans. The grotesqueness of the visual design often mirrored the internal disgust the central character felt about himself. Despite his status as an uber-wealthy actor who rarely worked, the writing was so good that BoJack’s trauma became our own.

One of the strongest features of Long Story Short is its look. Using thick black lines and a minimalist approach to scenery, the world of the Schwoopers takes on a painted, almost impressionist quality. It is like watching a Van Gogh painting drawn by Hanna-Barbera, the colours vivid and spotted, punctuating spaces and distorting others, like the process of memory itself.

It’s approach to narrative, however, sits in contrast to its bold look. Its story primarily deals with family dynamics and emotional trauma but these stories are painted with faint marks, opaque colours and tiny details. As such, a weariness emerges in the viewing experience, induced perhaps more by the times in which we are living rather than any failing of the show itself.

Premiering in 2016 and finishing in 2020, during the COVID lockdowns, Bojack seems to provide a strange antidote to Trump’s first term in office. Its madness matched the madness of its times, and its relentless compassion and desire for complexity served as a nice contrast to a world marked by a politics of simplistic cruelty.

Long Story Short tries to replicate this effect, but doesn’t do it as well. Coming out in 2025, the show’s interest in the quiet, everyday traumas caused by living with siblings and partners feel somewhat narcissistic and navel gazing.

Characters represent different sexualities and religions and all embody typical notions of family life. They are each given space and time to be represented onscreen. Yet none of that makes them hugely interesting as people. The character of Yoshi (Max Greenfield) is a good example of this.

Presented as a loveable loser in the mould of BoJack’s haphazard roommate Todd Chavaz, Yoshi is supposed to be somehow sympathetic and wise. However, he spends most of his time doing very little while his relatives struggle with far more arresting problems like surrogacy, divorce and bereavement. Among Yoshi’s biggest struggles are how he will get home after a night out at San Francisco’s trendiest, Instagram-friendly hangouts.

And the fact that a lot of this is set in San Francisco during COVID makes the unremarkability of its characters and premise all the more apparent. San Francisco is an exceedingly wealthy city dominated by a liberal elite. It is also a city that suffers from an undercurrent of real poverty and human suffering. This stark juxtaposition of worlds was made all the more intense during the pandemic. However, none of this finds its way onto our screens in Long Story Short.

As you watch these comfortable people be rather uncomfortable, you feel like grabbing the frame and turning it left or right in the hope that we might have a break from all this hand wringing. For those who know the city, we’re looking for reality to break in, to see an example of the suffering and pain probably happening on the streets that surround them.

This story about the liberal coastal elite fails to get beyond their narrow concerns to find more mutual and human territory in which we can all relate. It’s safe, comfortable, a little stifling, a bit boring, and seems to be completely fractured from the suddenly dangerous and precarious world that surrounds it.

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Alexander Sergeant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Long Story Short: an appealing but unsuccessful animated fantasy of memory and liberalism – https://theconversation.com/long-story-short-an-appealing-but-unsuccessful-animated-fantasy-of-memory-and-liberalism-264466

September 4, 2025

Xi Jinping showcases his dream of a China-led ‘new world order’

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email newsletter. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.

Robotic wolves rode on armoured vehicles. Alongside them stealth drones, unmanned submarines, and giant lasers for blinding pilots, accompanied by the lethal triad of air, sea and land-launched nuclear missiles made for a daunting array of Chinese military hardware on show this week in Beijing as it commemorated the 80th anniversary of end of the war with Japan. The parade was hosted by China’s president Xi Jinping and watched by guests including Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-un of North Korea and heads of state and dignitaries of 26 other countries.

It also drew a droll response from Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te, who didn’t attend the parade, who observed that his country doesn’t “commemorate peace with the barrel of a gun”.

This display of military might was part two of a week of mega-diplomacy on Xi’s part designed to demonstrate to the world that, under his leadership, China would not be “intimidated by bullies” and would “stand by the right side of history”. The Chinese president had come hot foot from hosting the 25th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on Sunday and Monday in the city of Tianjin, about 75 miles southeast of Beijing (or 16 minutes on one of China’s bullet trains).

The SCO summit brought together more than 20 leaders from Eurasia, including Xi, Putin and India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi. The gathering’s mission statement, as Xi put it, was to “take a clear stand against hegemonism and power politics, and practise true multilateralism”. Which it’s not unreasonable to read as the ushering in of a new order built around the leadership of China.

What was of most consequence at the SCO summit, writes Stefan Wolff, was the show of unity by Xi, Putin and Modi. An alliance between their three countries would be a formidable partnership. But what unites most of the delegates at the SCO writes Wolff, an expert in international security at the University of Birmingham, is not so much their desire to participate in a new vision of a China-led world order, but an antipathy to the current US hegemony under the stewardship of Donald Trump.

This is particularly the case for Modi, who is chafing under America’s recent imposition of 50% tariffs on its exports to the US as punishment for buying Russian oil in defiance of US-imposed sanctions.

So it’s interesting that Modi did not take the 16-minute bullet train ride to watch the parade alongside the North Korean leader. Wolff believes this is also emblematic of the challenges faced by Xi in assembling his new world order. Some of China’s friends present an unpalatable choice for the others and might not sit harmoniously in alliance together.

It’s likely that the US tariffs were high on Modi’s mind as he posed for photographs with the Chinese and Russian leaders. Wolff believes that this has destroyed, almost in a stroke, decades of careful US diplomacy designed at bringing the world’s most populous democracy into partnership against China.

It feels almost incredible that, as has been much mooted, Trump’s decision to punish India so harshly hinged largely on a fit of pique. But the US president was reportedly incensed at Modi’s refusal to back his claim to have prevented a major conflict with Pakistan or to join that country in nominating him for a Nobel peace prize.

But India is now doubling down on its decision to defy the US and purchase cheap Russian oil. And the chances are the tariffs will hurt the US as much as they hurts India. And it certainly won’t harm Russia, writes Sambit Bhattacharyya. Bhattacharyya, an economist at the University of Sussex Business School, believes that India and Russia have a lot to offer each other in trade terms. Cheap oil for India, cheap textiles and other trade goods for Russian consumers.

More importantly, writes Bhattacharyya, the more Trump’s trade policy drives America’s partners away, the greater the risk to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. There are already signs that many developing economies are trying out ways of doing business that don’t involve the dollar. The more the US pushes its trade partners away, the more this will happen and the greater the impact on US prosperity and security.

Reviling Russia

Meanwhile diplomatic efforts to bring Russia to peace talks with Ukraine continue. Kyiv’s European allies are currently discussing what a security guarantee might look like if a ceasefire can be agreed. There are three schools of thought. Some, like Britain, are willing to commit to putting “boots on the ground”. Others, like Italy, will absolutely not countenance the idea. But most, notably Germany, are undecided.

One of the main hurdles facing the west when it comes to committing to an agreement with Russia is an inherent and deep mistrust of the Russian leader. And it’s easy to see why that might be. Russia has already broken agreements made to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and 2015. By invading Ukraine, Russia also violated the Budapest memorandum signed in 1994 by which Ukraine agreed to get rid of its nuclear stockpile in return for an absolute guarantee by Russia, the US and the UK to respect its territorial sovereignty.

But this lack of trust is getting in the way of a ceasefire deal, writes Francesco Rigoli. Rigoli, a psychologist at City St Georges, University of London, believes that the more Putin is reviled by western leaders and media commentators, the most it feels morally wrong to treat with Russia. He points out that Russian politicians and media are putting out very much the same message about the west. This is not helping the chance for a peace deal any time soon.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, many Ukrainians who would have spoken Russian in public are unwilling to do so. Instead a lot of people are opting to use Surshyk, a hybrid tongue which uses bits of both languages and is quite common in central and southeastern Ukraine. Initially used widely in Soviet times by Ukrainians who wanted to move from the country to the cities to work in factories it was very much dominated by Russian, but in recent decades it has moved far closer to Ukrainian.

It’s a matter of debate as to whether Surzhyk – which was stigmatised in the past as a marker of rural backwardness (the name refers to a mix of poor quality grains) – is a language, or a dialect or even a form of slang. Linguistics expert Oleksandra Osypenko of Lancaster University tells the fascinating story of how Surzhyk has become a more socially acceptable way for native Russian speakers to communicate in a country at war with Russia.

Climate conflict

This week we launched a new series of articles which sets out to explore the connection between international conflicts and climate change. Competition for resources has sparked conflicts since prehistoric times. But we’re now seeing more regular and more drastic effects of global warming playing out in famine, drought and mass migration. It’s a terrible cycle as climate change causes conflict, which can render whole regions uninhabitable.

Curated by my colleague Sam Phelps, War on climate will explore the relationship between climate issues and global conflicts. To kick off the series, Duncan Depledge, a senior lecturer in geopolitics and security at Loughborough University writes about the three reasons the climate crisis must reshape how we think about war.

Meanwhile Sarah Njeri, an expert in humanitarian and development studies at SOAS, University of London, and Christina Greene, a research scientist in the Arizona Institute for Resilience, University of Arizona, look at the ever larger swaths of land around the world contaminated by landmines and other explosive ordnance as well as lethal chemicals which can render land useless for agriculture for decades.

You might also be interested in this week’s episode of our podcast, The Conversation Weekly, which look at how China uses second world war history in its bid to reshape the global order.

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– ref. Xi Jinping showcases his dream of a China-led ‘new world order’ – https://theconversation.com/xi-jinping-showcases-his-dream-of-a-china-led-new-world-order-264620

September 4, 2025

What suicidal teens say matters most to them

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lauren Alex O’Hagan, Research Fellow, School of Languages and Applied Linguistics, The Open University

Why would a suicidal teenager choose to live? It’s not the kind of question most of us ever want to ask. Suicide is the third leading cause of death among 15-29 year olds worldwide. Much of the research and media coverage still focuses on why teens might want to die. Far less often do we ask the opposite, equally urgent question: what makes life worth holding on to?

In our new study, we asked adolescents who had been hospitalised for suicidal thoughts or behaviour to name their three strongest reasons for staying alive. Their answers, gathered during safety planning (a standard part of care where patients and clinicians work together to identify coping strategies and reasons to keep living) offer a rare and unfiltered glimpse into the motivations that keep young people going, even at their lowest point.

The single most common word in the dataset was “my”. That may sound insignificant, but it tells us something powerful. Adolescents weren’t speaking abstractly about life or philosophy – they were talking about their people, their goals, their pets and their plans. This reflects a sense of belonging, which research shows is one of the strongest protective factors against suicide.

To capture these patterns, we used corpus-driven language analysis, a method that examines the frequency and use of words across large sets of text. In this case, we analysed the exact words of 211 adolescents aged 13–17 who had recently been admitted to a US psychiatric hospital for suicidal thoughts or behaviour.

Our goal was to identify common themes and better understand what keeps suicidal young people tethered to life – in their own words.

When we looked more closely at the nouns, three themes stood out.

First, their relationships. Family (especially mums and younger siblings), friends and pets featured most often.

Second, future hopes. Teens mentioned careers, dreams of travel, or simply a curiosity “to see what the future holds.”

Thirds, possessions and independence. They talked about getting a car, moving out, owning a house or even just “doing my own makeup.”

Among the most common verbs were action words like “want”, “be” and “see” – forward-looking and full of intention. Adolescents spoke of wanting to grow up, travel, become someone (“a welder” or “professional wrestler”, for example) and finding happiness. Even in distress, their language carried movement, desire and a drive toward the future.

Adjectives added emotional colour. Words such as “happy”, “good”, “okay” and “better” reflected modest, grounded hopes for relief, while “own” suggested control and self-expression: “my own space,” “my own style,” “my own life.”

And within the dataset, the responses were highly individual. Some were deeply emotional: “I saw how my dad cried and I don’t want him to cry like that again,” or “To not make my mom sad.” Others were more specific: “I want to read 100 books this year,” or “I want to get some bad-ass tattoos.” One patient put it simply: “YOLO” (you only live once).

From despair to desire

At first glance, asking suicidal teens what keeps them alive may seem paradoxical, since media reports and suicide research tend to concentrate on why young people want to die. But research shows that the majority of young people who experience suicidal thoughts do not go on to attempt suicide.

Among those who do, some later report a stronger sense of connection and purpose after surviving.

In our study, 97% of adolescents were able to identify three reasons to live, despite the emotional turmoil that had brought them to hospital. This suggests that even in crisis, many young people retain a desire to live if they can anchor themselves to something – or someone – that matters.

Some feared the consequences of suicide, not for themselves but for others. A few cited religious concerns. Others worried about the physical pain involved. But overwhelmingly, the reasons for living were hopeful, relational and future-oriented.

A tool for therapy, not just research

These findings carry clear clinical implications. Someone’s reasons for living shouldn’t be treated as just another box on a checklist. They can be a springboard for conversation and healing. When a teen says, “I want to be a vet,” or “I want to take care of my little sister,” it opens the door to meaningful, personalised treatment.

Helping adolescents articulate their reasons for living can build rapport, clarify therapy goals and enhance motivation. It can also be used to challenge unhelpful thoughts – like “I’m a burden” or “No one cares” – with concrete, self-generated evidence to the contrary.

Most importantly, reasons for living remind teens, and those who care for them, that even in amid despair they still have something to live for.

Young person raising arms to sky silhouetted against a sunset — By listening to the things that matter to them we can see how small sparks of hope can give a suicidal young person a reason to keep living.
sutadimages/Shutterstock

While risk factors such as trauma, mental illness, bullying and identity struggles remain well known, we too often overlook the anchors that help teens hold on. A 2024 US survey found that nearly one in ten high school students – around 9.5% – attempted suicide in 2023. That number reminds us adolescent suicide isn’t abstract, it’s real and it’s happening now.

By tuning into their own words, whether it’s their sister, their dog, a concert, or just the dream of getting some “bad-ass tattoos”, we can start to understand what makes life feel worth living for a young person considering or attempting suicide. Sometimes the smallest hope is enough to keep someone going.

If you would like more information or to talk to someone about any issues raised in this article, here are some recommended contacts:

Harmless: a user-led organisation for people who self-injure, as well as their friends and families;

The Samaritans: the 24/7 support service has also published reports on self-injury for all four UK countries;

Self-injury Support: information and support for people who self-injure, including a self-harm diary and support groups for men and women;

LifeSigns: a user-led self-injury guidance and support network;

NHS – where to get help for self-harm: a long list of resources.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What suicidal teens say matters most to them – https://theconversation.com/what-suicidal-teens-say-matters-most-to-them-262900