Why hasn’t the US military used force to secure the Strait of Hormuz?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Justin Bergman, International Affairs Editor, The Conversation

The Conversation, CC BY-SA

Since the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran in late February, Iran has retaliated by targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shutting down the narrow channel of water.

It’s caused a global fuel crisis, even though some ships are managing to get through the strait. US President Donald Trump has given Iran an ultimatum to fully reopen the waterway to oil and gas shipments, and called on NATO allies to help in the effort.

We asked naval expert Jennifer Parker, who served for 20 years with the Royal Australian Navy, to explain what kind of military force would be required to reopen the strait to commercial shipping and why the US hasn’t yet taken this step.

Why is it so hard to prevent attacks on ships?

The geography of the region has a lot to do with this.


The Conversation, CC BY-SA

Iran clearly dominates the northern part of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. That proximity allows it to use its cheaper weapons such as drones to target ships.

Creating the conditions to make merchant shipping safe – or at least reduce the risk – requires a two-phase campaign.

The first phase is taking out Iran’s ability to target ships. There are two ways to do this:

  • persuade or force Iran to stop attacking ships
  • destroy Iran’s ability to attack ships by taking out its radar facilities, command and control structure and weapons bunkers along the coast.

The US has air power, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities to identify and destroy most of these targets. Locating and destroying Iran’s masses of drones will be harder, as they can be stored almost anywhere, so intelligence will be crucial here.

The Malta-flagged container vessel Safeen Prestige on fire in the Strait of Hormuz on March 18 after being hit by Iranian explosives.
Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite, CC BY-SA

Once you reduce the risk through a bombing campaign, the second element of getting ships back through the strait is a reassurance campaign.

This requires airborne early warning aircraft and maritime patrol aircraft to monitor not only the strait, but also the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf and along Iran’s coastline.

Fighter aircraft would need to be stationed above the strait and gulf, as combat air patrol and helicopters would need to be ready to deploy against attacks, if necessary. And in the water, the US would need to station warships to provide the occasional escort.

If mines are confirmed or even suspected of being in the strait, this complicates things. The US would require an extensive and time-consuming mine clearance operation.

So, why won’t the US try to militarily secure the strait?

There are four key reasons the US won’t attempt to militarily secure the strait without first achieving phase one (taking out Iran’s ability to target ships) — and why it hasn’t been a focus of the campaign thus far.

First, it would divert military assets, such as aircraft, that are needed elsewhere to carry out Trump’s war objectives.

Second, to make the strait safe for shipping, you actually need to secure not just the water, but the land on either side of it. And this would likely require ground forces – or perhaps raiding parties on Iran’s coastline – which would be complicated and risky for the US military.

Third, securing shipping would require a significant number of naval ships. Realistically, you’d need one or two naval ships per escort operation. A convoy any larger than that would be at increased risk of attack, unless the US and Israel have dramatically reduced Iran’s ability to target the ships.

President Trump has ordered reinforcements from two naval groups into the Middle East, consisting of around 4,500 marines and dozens of aircraft.
The Conversation, NYT, Al Jazeera, CC BY-SA

And fourth, the military needs to think about the risk to its assets versus the benefits of opening the strait. A US warship has a crew of more than 200 personnel. Given Iran’s ability to hit ships with uncrewed surface vessels, drones and cruise missiles, is it worth putting those personnel at risk before you’ve reduced the threats from Iran’s coastline?

What about mines in the strait?

This would be a significant challenge. But one thing first: Iran doesn’t actually need to physically lay the mines, it just needs to convince the US and others that it has. This is enough to prevent civilian ships from wanting to transit through the strait.

The possible types of mines Iran may have laid in the Strait of Hormuz, though there has been no clear evidence mining has occurred.
NYT, CC BY-SA

Sometimes mines can be floating on the surface of the water, so they’re visible. Often, though, mines are submerged or moored. The US would need to send in divers or remote-controlled vehicles launched from ships to remove them. This would take weeks or perhaps even months.

Although it’s not been confirmed publicly, I think it’s unlikely Iran would extensivley lay mines. There are two reasons for this.

First, Iran’s economy relies on its ability to ship its own oil from Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf through the strait. Iran does have other ports outside the strait, but they can’t accommodate bigger ships, so mining would interfere with their trade.

Second, some reports have suggested Iran has used acoustic mines, a type of influence mine that detonates based on an acoustic “signature”, essentially what a ship sounds like as it moves through the water. While this technology certainly exists, it is unlikely such mines would be designed to reliably differentiate between Iranian-flagged merchant vessels and those flagged to other countries.

Maintaining accurate and comprehensive signature data for large numbers of commercial vessels — particularly in a dense and dynamic shipping environment such as the strait — would be extremely challenging. In practice, these mines would pose risks to a wide range of shipping.

The US also has significant intelligence assets and surveillance and reconnaissance systems along the Iranian coast, so it would likely detect mine-laying operations, although this can also occur from any vessel, including fishing boats.

And what about Iran’s ability to target ships with drones?

Iran has used different types of drones so far in the war. The uncrewed aerial craft or uncrewed surface vessels are remotely controlled and have been used to hit merchant tankers.

Compared with other weapons, such as missiles, it’s much harder for the US and Israel to target Iran’s drones on the ground because they can be launched from almost anywhere. And while they can’t be built anywhere, drones don’t require the same advanced manufacturing facilities as missiles. In short, they are harder to detect and wipe out.

But the US can bomb some of Iran’s launching points and drone stockpiles along the coast to prevent some attacks on ships.

What is the main priority for the US in Iran right now?

Although there has been much debate about regime change, the Trump administration has been clear about its four key military objectives, which are to destroy:

  • Iran’s ballistic missile capability
  • its nuclear capability
  • its navy (which has largely been achieved)
  • and its proxy networks, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has been under attack by Israel for the past several weeks.

The destruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities requires significant aircraft and weaponry – as the US and Israeli bombing campaigns have already made clear. Diverting these assets to secure the Strait of Hormuz could undermine the achievement of these military objectives.

The Conversation

ref. Why hasn’t the US military used force to secure the Strait of Hormuz? – https://theconversation.com/why-hasnt-the-us-military-used-force-to-secure-the-strait-of-hormuz-279224

Is lighter sleep a normal part of ageing – or a sign of something more serious?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Elena Urrestarazu Bolumburu, Consultor Clínico. Servicio de Neurofisiología Clínica. Unidad de Sueño., Universidad de Navarra

Microgen/Shutterstock

As you get older, it’s normal to notice changes in your sleep. These can include fewer hours of shuteye, waking up more during the night, and finding it harder to drop off. However, despite the general view that older people tend to need less sleep, scientific evidence suggests that this change isn’t actually a question of needing less rest, but of a reduced ability to fall into a deep, continuous sleep.

Older brains still need to rest, but they find it harder and do it more superficially. It’s as if the “off switch” that keeps us asleep works less effectively as time goes on.

Lighter sleep and ageing

One of the main reasons we get worse sleep as we age is the loss of stability in the system that regulates sleep and wakefulness.

In the young brain, this system functions like a firm switch: it is either awake or asleep. But as we get older, some neurons that promote and maintain sleep are lost, while others that sustain wakefulness also get weaker. As a result, the brain shifts states more easily, leading to lighter and more fragmented sleep.

Our biological clocks also change with age. The group of neurons that coordinates the entire body’s circadian rhythms (known as the suprachiasmatic nucleus) continues to function, but its “day” becomes shorter and starts earlier, and its signal becomes less intense.

This partly explains why older people tend to fall asleep and wake up earlier. It also explains why their night-time sleep is more sensitive to external stimuli, and why they can experience more drowsiness during the day. Put simply, the brain receives a less clear signal about when to sleep and when to stay awake.

Another significant change is in our “sleep pressure”. This urge builds up throughout the day and causes us to sleep at night, and depends on a substance known as adenosine. As we age, the brain continues to accumulate fatigue but responds less effectively to this signal. Although the need for sleep remains, it becomes more difficult to translate the signal into deep, uninterrupted sleep.

Deep sleep, which is essential for brain recovery, is also directly affected by structural changes in the brain. This phase of sleep occurs primarily in the frontal regions, which lose thickness and connections as we age. As a result, the slow brainwaves that characterise deep sleep become weaker and less frequent – especially at the start of the night.




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During sleep, the brain also sends out brief signals that help consolidate memories from the day. As we age, these signals diminish and become less synchronised with deep sleep. This contributes to a decline in learning and memory efficiency, even in healthy older people.

Finally, ageing affects the connections that enable different regions of the brain to work in sync during the night. Although the neurons that generate sleep are still present, their signals are transmitted less effectively. The result is less deep, more fragmented, and less restorative sleep.

It is important to note that lighter sleep is considered part of the brain’s natural ageing process in healthy older adults. These changes do not necessarily lead to cognitive problems.

Lifestyle factors

In addition to these biological changes, other factors can have a decisive influence on sleep in older people, and often interact with neurobiological mechanisms. For instance, the loss of daily routine – such as regular working hours, structured physical activity and consistent exposure to natural light – weakens the external cues that help synchronise the biological clock, exacerbating sleep fragmentation.

At this stage of life, sleep disorders such as insomnia and obstructive sleep apnoea are more common. At the same time, a greater burden of chronic conditions – persistent pain, cardiovascular or respiratory diseases – and mood disorders leads to additional night-time awakenings and breaks up sleep.

While essential, frequent use of medicines can also disrupt sleep patterns. These range from sleep aids and anxiolytics that affect deep sleep, to antidepressants, beta-blockers and diuretics that interfere with the onset, stability or continuity of sleep.

Taken together, these factors act as modulators. While they do not in themselves cause sleep ageing, they can exacerbate it, and make it clinically significant when they occur in a brain that is already more vulnerable.




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What is “normal” sleep ageing?

In recent years, there has been a growing body of evidence regarding the harmful effects of sleep deprivation and sleep disorders on brain health. Poor sleep is not only associated with poorer cognitive performance in the short term, but also with a higher risk of cognitive decline and dementia in the long term.

This growing interest has placed a spotlight on sleep in old age, a stage of life where sleep patterns almost universally change. However, one of the greatest challenges is to draw a clear line between changes in sleep that are part of normal ageing – meaning they don’t entail any negative physical or mental consequences – and those that may constitute an early, subclinical symptom of neurodegenerative processes.

As they age, a person might begin to notice a deterioration in their sleep patterns (waking up during the night, more superficial sleep, and so on). But there are no biomarkers that can determine whether these are normal changes to be expected with age, or whether they are in fact a manifestation of neurodegenerative disease.

Although it’s normal for sleep to become lighter with age, some changes go beyond what is to be expected and may indicate unhealthy brain ageing. One of the main warning signs is marked and progressive sleep fragmentation, with multiple prolonged night-time awakenings and a persistent feeling of non-restorative sleep, even when the total time spent in bed is enough. Unlike normal ageing, in these cases sleep loses its stability and continuity.




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Another key sign is the rapid onset or worsening of excessive daytime sleepiness, particularly when it interferes with daily activities or is disproportionate to the amount of sleep obtained. This would suggest that a person’s sleep has lost its restorative function.

When should you worry?

From a neurocognitive perspective, the coexistence of sleep disturbances with subtle cognitive changes – such as recent difficulties with memory, attention or learning, even if these do not yet meet the criteria for cognitive impairment – is particularly concerning. Recent research suggests that this combination may reflect early-stage neurodegenerative processes.

Changes in quality of sleep, rather than simply a reduction in sleep duration, are also considered warning signs. This can mean the almost complete disappearance of deep sleep, a marked reduction in REM sleep, or a progressive reversal of the sleep-wake cycle, with increased night-time activity and daytime sleepiness. These patterns are not typical of healthy ageing.

Other warning signs are a growing dependence on medical sleeping aids or sedatives to sleep, as well as treatments that previously worked becoming suddenly ineffective. In these cases, the problem is usually not just insomnia, but an underlying disturbance of the brain’s sleep mechanisms.

These signs alone are not sufficient to diagnose a neurodegenerative disease, but they do show why we need to assess sleep as a potential early risk marker, especially when the changes are recent, progressive and associated with cognitive impairments.


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The Conversation

Elena Urrestarazu Bolumburu no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. Is lighter sleep a normal part of ageing – or a sign of something more serious? – https://theconversation.com/is-lighter-sleep-a-normal-part-of-ageing-or-a-sign-of-something-more-serious-278836

UK government recommends maximum two hours of screen time for younger children: what the evidence says

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Olga Fotakopoulou, Associate Professor in Developmental Psychology, Birmingham City University

ADDICTIVE STOCK/Shutterstock

New UK government guidance recommends that screen time for children under two should be avoided, except for shared activities such as video calls. For children aged two to five, a maximum of an hour a day is suggested. The guidance also outlines that watching screens together is better than children viewing alone.

This echoes guidance from the World Health Organization recommending no screen time for infants under two, and no more than one hour per day for older children aged four and under.

The early years, especially from birth to age six, are a critical period for developing social and communication skills. This is when children are learning how to connect with others, communicate their needs and understand the signals people give them. Given the increasing presence of touchscreen technologies in young children’s environments, understanding how these tools influence early developmental trajectories is essential.

Touchscreen technology offers new opportunities for learning and play. But there are also questions about its impact on children’s social development, communication and school readiness. Researchers and health organisations have been working to consider how digital media interacts with children’s development and shapes their early experiences.

Excessive touchscreen use has been associated with delays in expressive language, reduced attention spans, and poorer interactions between parents and children.

Yet the picture is not one-sided. My research with colleagues highlights that early exposure to multi-modal technologies – tools that combine sound, images, touch and movement – can shape children’s social development in both positive and negative ways.

Language skills and collaboration

On the positive side, interactive and engaging uses of technology can foster language development. Studies show that digital platforms encouraging storytelling, role play and collaborative activities can enhance children’s competence in communication.

Touchscreens can also help children to work together on shared tasks. Multi-touch interfaces promote joint problem-solving, turn-taking and dialogue. This can strengthen cooperation and peer relationships.

In classrooms, tablets often become focal points for group activities. Children share knowledge, assist one another and collaborate on projects, which can enhance social interaction skills and confidence.

Touchscreens also create opportunities for social play and communication across distance. Video-communication apps such as Skype and FaceTime allow children to maintain relationships with family and friends, supporting emotional bonds and social connection.

Three children using a tablet together
Children can collaborate using screens.
Mkosi Omkhulu/Shutterstock

Creative expression is another area where digital tools can shine. Drawing, animation, and storytelling apps encourage children to share ideas and collaborate. This can promote cooperation and social bonding.

Passive use

However, these benefits coexist with significant challenges. Excessive screen time can reduce opportunities for face-to-face interaction, limiting children’s practice of conversational skills and emotional understanding. When children use screens passively or in isolation, they may become less engaged in socialising with others.

Parents’s use of screens is another concern. When parents are absorbed in their own devices, they talk less with their children. This reduces opportunities for educationally meaningful conversations.

Touchscreen use can also affect communication more directly. Studies show that electronic books may shift parents’ attention toward the device rather than the story, displacing meaningful conversation and reducing the quality of shared reading experiences. Some research suggests that heavy touchscreen use may make it harder for children to pick up social and emotional cues. This may affect their ability to decode social situations.

Importantly, the impact of touchscreen use is shaped by several mediating factors. Children learn more effectively when adults or their classmates model how to use touchscreen devices. As the government guidance states, it’s also better if adults watch screens together with their child, rather than their child watching alone.

Parents’ views and wider culture matter too. In research I carried out with colleagues, we found that cultural perceptions about what makes a good childhood shaped parents’ choices. In Portugal and Norway, strong cultural emphasis on outdoor play, social interaction, and connection with nature led parents to prioritise these activities over touchscreen use.

These cultural expectations influence how parents interpret and regulate young children’s digital practices, showing that attitudes toward technology are closely tied to wider national discourses about childhood. Educational settings further influence this. The way technology is integrated into classrooms can reinforce social behaviour.

These findings have important implications for school readiness. Social communication skills, such as turn-taking, listening, expressing ideas, and understanding others, are foundational for success in early education. Touchscreens can support these skills when used interactively and collaboratively. But when screen use replaces conversation, imaginative play or peer interaction, it may hinder the development of the very abilities children need for school and their social lives.

The evidence suggests that the question is not whether children should use touchscreens, but how. High-quality, interactive, and socially supported digital experiences can enrich development. Passive or excessive use can undermine it.

However, it’s vital to recognise that not all digital content is created equal. The quality and context of technology use can have a significant impact. As digital technologies continue to evolve, ensuring that young children’s screen experiences are balanced, meaningful, and socially engaging will be essential.

The Conversation

I have received funding from EU and Nuffield Foundation (but not for this project).

ref. UK government recommends maximum two hours of screen time for younger children: what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/uk-government-recommends-maximum-two-hours-of-screen-time-for-younger-children-what-the-evidence-says-275752

Congo-Brazzaville : après le plébiscite électoral, les défis de Denis Sassou Nguesso

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Ngodi Etanislas, enseignant-chercheur, Université Marien Ngouabi

Le scrutin présidentiel du 15 mars 2026 en République du Congo s’est conclu par la réélection de Denis Sassou Nguesso dès le premier tour, avec un score provisoire de 94,82 % des suffrages et un taux de participation officiel autour de 84,65 %.

Ngodi Etanislas, dont les travaux portent sur les enjeux électoraux et les recompositions politiques en République du Congo, explique à The Conversation Africa les enseigneemts à tirer de ce scrutin.


Quels sont les principaux facteurs politiques qui ont façonné le résultat de l’élection ?

La victoire de Denis Sassou-Nguesso avec un « score à la soviétique » de 94,82 % des voix exprimées n’est pas le résultat d’une compétition électorale ouverte. Elle est plutôt l’aboutissement d’un système politique bâti sur plusieurs décennies de consolidation du pouvoir depuis la fin de la guerre civile de 1997.

Plusieurs facteurs politiques clés peuvent être mis en avant pour justifier cette légitimation électorale.

Il y a, d’abord, la longévité politique de Denis Sassou Nguesso au pouvoir depuis 1979 (avec une interruption de 1992 à 1997). Cette omniprésence de plus de quatre décennies lui permet d’assurer un contrôle absolu de l’appareil politique, institutionnel et sécuritaire du pays, rendant l’alternance politique non seulement difficile, mais systémiquement peu probable.

Par ailleurs, le verrouillage du processus électoral, opéré notamment à travers le contrôle de l’appareil d’État et des organes de gestion des élections, a contribué à cette victoire.

L’élection s’est déroulée dans un contexte marqué par un rapport de force structurellement déséquilibré en faveur du président sortant. La campagne, très asymétrique, a pris la forme d’une véritable « tournée nationale », s’appuyant sur une stratégie de démonstration de force destinée à donner l’image d’un leader proche des populations.

Les divisions de l’opposition ont-elles eu un impact sur le résultat final ?

La fragmentation de l’opposition politique est sans doute le facteur le plus déterminant dans l’ampleur du score final de cette élection. L’opposition a abordé le scrutin en rangs dispersés, incapable de trouver un consensus pour une candidature unique, réduisant fortement les chances d’une alternance démocratique.

Le scrutin a été marqué par l’absence des figures historiques de la vie politique congolaise dont certaines sont toujours emprisonnées (Jean-Marie Michel Mokoko ou André Okombi Salissa ) et d’autres leaders ayant décidé de boycotter. Ils estiment que les conditions d’une élection libre et transparente n’étaient pas réunies. Ce boycott a vidé la compétition de tout enjeu réel. Il a contribué à la victoire dès le premier tour de Denis Sassou Nguesso qui avait obtenu en 2016 le score de 60,4 % des suffrages face à une opposition forte.

Pour de nombreux observateurs, les six candidats en lice, peu connus ou sans réelle assise politique, cherchant à assurer une certaine visibilité, ou mieux une légitimité politique aux yeux de l’opinion publique pour de prochaines batailles électorales, ne pouvaient pas faire face à Sassou Nguesso. Ils ont disposé de peu de moyens financiers pour se déployer sur l’ensemble du territoire et structurer les dynamiques locales sur le terrain pour défendre leurs projets de société.

Enfin, le black-out numérique marqué par la coupure totale des réseaux téléphoniques et d’Internet sur l’ensemble du territoire le jour du vote a contribué à l’opacité du processus. Il a créé un isolement informationnel sans précédent.

Cette mesure a permis de réduire la capacité d’organisation collective et de déploiement des délégués de l’opposition. Elle visait également à limiter la diffusion, sur les réseaux sociaux, de rumeurs sur les bourrages d’urnes, l’achat de consciences et d’autres contenus politiquement sensibles ou embarrassants pour le candidat sortant, qui craignait un fort taux d’abstention.




Read more:
Congo-Brazzaville : face à une opposition divisée, Sassou Nguesso en route pour prolonger son règne


Comment évaluez-vous la participation citoyenne et le rôle des électeurs dans ce scrutin ?

La participation citoyenne a été marquée par une désaffection électorale profonde. Celle-ci a été alimentée par le boycott de l’opposition et par le sentiment d’inutilité du vote chez de nombreux jeunes. Elle s’est également inscrite dans un climat de peur entretenu par l’environnement répressif, notamment les opérations menées au début du mois de janvier 2026 par la Direction générale de la sécurité présidentielle dans le département du Pool, ainsi que par les intimidations et répressions à l’égard des activistes et opposants.

La question de la participation électorale est au cœur de la controverse entourant ce scrutin.

Deux scénarios sont envisageables à ce niveau.

Le premier scénario est celui d’une mobilisation encadrée par le pouvoir, à travers les réseaux politiques, clientélistes et les structures locales du parti présidentiel et de ses alliés. L’objectif est de stimuler la participation afin de légitimer le processus électoral et renforcer la crédibilité des résultats.

Le deuxième scénario est celui du boycott du scrutin encouragé par l’opposition, pour parvenir à une faible participation, pouvant susciter des contestations politiques et des débats sur la légitimité du scrutin.

L’évaluation du scrutin du 15 mars 2026 met en évidence un contraste marqué entre les chiffres officiels et les observations de terrain, suggérant une participation citoyenne plus complexe qu’il n’y paraît. Le taux de participation officiel aurait ainsi bondi de près de 17 points. Il est passé d’environ 67,57 % en 2016 – lors d’un scrutin marqué par la présence de figures importantes de l’opposition – à 84,65 % en 2026, malgré un contexte de boycott généralisé.

Quatre constats peuvent être faits au sujet de la participation citoyenne à cette élection :

  • Un corps électoral autour de 2,64 millions d’électeurs inscrits sur les listes électorales, mais absent dans les bureaux de vote au regard de la faible affluence dans 6 620 bureaux de vote répartis dans 4 011 centres sur l’ensemble du territoire ;

  • Une abstention massive anticipée, confirmée par les observateurs nationaux et internationaux, malgré la forte mobilisation citoyenne constatée lors de la campagne électorale ;

  • Une démotivation totale des électeurs du fait de l’absence de candidats de taille, du manque de transparence et du verrouillage du processus électoral, ainsi que d’une participation asymétrique à travers la mobilisation forte des réseaux proches du pouvoir et la démobilisation des électeurs critiques.

  • Une mobilisation limitée, notamment par la faible affluence dans les centres urbains, le désintérêt marqué des jeunes et le sentiment répandu que “le résultat est connu d’avance”.

Le rôle des électeurs a oscillé entre adhésion et contrainte. Si certains ont soutenu Denis Sassou Nguesso par conviction ou fidélité politique, d’autres ont voté de manière stratégique sous l’effet de pressions sociales, administratives ou de logiques clientélistes.

Quels défis démocratiques le Congo Brazzaville doit-il relever après une cinquième victoire consécutive de Denis Sassou Nguesso ?

Cette réélection place la République du Congo face à des défis structurels majeurs. Pour que le pays sorte de la stagnation politique et sociale, plusieurs chantiers démocratiques s’imposent. Six défis majeurs se dessinent.

  • La restauration de la crédibilité électorale et l’indépendance des institutions constituent l’un des enjeux les plus sensibles. Elle met en lumière les lacunes concernant la gouvernance électorale, le manque de transparence, de caractère inclusif et d’équité constatées dans le cadre du scrutin de mars 2026.

  • La fiabilité des listes électorales, l’impartialité de la Commission nationale électorale indépendante (CNEI) et l’accès inégal aux médias posent des problèmes constants, sans audit indépendant effectif. Sans une réforme profonde du système électoral, l’abstention réelle et le désintérêt, notamment des jeunes, continueront de croître et de peser sur l’engagement citoyen et la participation politique.

  • La mise en place d’un espace politique pluraliste et d’une opposition viable en vue d’une recomposition du paysage politique congolais. Dans ce contexte, la libération des prisonniers politiques et la garantie d’un droit à l’opposition effectif seraient des conditions sine qua non de toute réconciliation nationale. L’élection de 2026 s’est déroulée avec une opposition largement “muselée” ou ayant choisi le boycott.

  • La protection des libertés fondamentales et de l’espace civique afin de répondre aux questions liées à la recrudescence des violations des droits humains dans un contexte d’absence de dialogue politique entre le régime, l’opposition, et la société civile.

  • La question cruciale de la succession et de la transition dans l’optique d’une conservation du pouvoir au sein de la majorité présidentielle et/ou de la continuité d’un nouveau mandat en 2031. À cela s’ajouteraient des scénarios de succession dynastique au sein de la famille présidentielle.

  • La réconciliation de la richesse pétrolière avec le développement humain pour un pays, où, près de la moitié de la population vit en dessous du seuil de la pauvreté. Le défi est de transformer la rente pétrolière en services publics (santé, éducation) et en opportunités pour la jeunesse.

  • La nécessité de reconnecter la participation citoyenne, notamment des jeunes aspirant au changement et la société civile au processus politique. La participation citoyenne demeure cruciale pour la légitimité du processus électoral.




Read more:
Cameroun, Guinée équatoriale, Congo : les guerres de succession menacent la stabilité régionale


Quelles implications cette élection pourrait-elle avoir pour la stabilité politique ?

Cette stabilité repose sur des équilibres précaires, notamment la faible légitimité du pouvoir perçue par une partie de la population, la méfiance envers le processus électoral et la frustration politique accumulée au fil des années. Elle s’appuie également sur la continuité des institutions et des élites au pouvoir, l’absence de rupture brutale et le maintien des équilibres internes.

La stabilité du pays repose actuellement sur un équilibre fragile maintenu par une forte centralisation du pouvoir et le renforcement de la mainmise institutionnelle.

La frustration de la jeunesse constitue un baromètre particulièrement préoccupant. Les enquêtes Afrobarometer réalisées en République du Congo en 2024 indiquent que les jeunes ont une faible confiance dans le système politique. Ce qui donne d’ailleurs l’impression d’un sentiment d’inutilité du vote, dont les résultats sont connus d’avance et que l’élection présidentielle ne changera rien dans leur quotidien.

Il y a aussi des frustrations du fait des problèmes de survie économique, le désenchantement face au chômage chronique et l’absence de perspectives économiques dans le pays.

La bataille interne au sein du parti au pouvoir pour “l’après-Sassou” pourrait devenir la principale source d’instabilité si aucun dauphin clair et consensuel n’émerge. Les dissensions internes constatées lors du Congrès ordinaire du parti en décembre 2025 montrent que les problèmes de succession demeurent au centre de la reconfiguration des équilibres internes au sein du parti au pouvoir et du repositionnement des élites dans le champ politique congolais.

L’élection présidentielle de mars 2026 a permis de consolider le pouvoir en place, sans pourtant résoudre les questions liées à la gouvernance électorale, à la participation citoyenne et à l’ouverture démocratique.

The Conversation

Ngodi Etanislas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Congo-Brazzaville : après le plébiscite électoral, les défis de Denis Sassou Nguesso – https://theconversation.com/congo-brazzaville-apres-le-plebiscite-electoral-les-defis-de-denis-sassou-nguesso-279000

Two verdicts in two days: How American courts are rewriting the rules for Big Tech and children

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Carolina Rossini, Professor of Practice and Director for Program, Public Interest Technology Initiative, UMass Amherst

Judge Bryan Biedscheid of New Mexico could order significant changes to how Instagram and Facebook operate. Nathan Burton/Santa Fe New Mexican via AP, Pool

Within 48 hours, the legal landscape governing social media and children shifted in ways that will take years to fully understand and verify.

On March 24, 2026, a Santa Fe jury ordered Meta to pay US$375 million for violating New Mexico’s consumer protection laws. The next day, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google’s YouTube negligent in the design of their platforms, awarding almost $6 million in damages to a single plaintiff.

The dollar figures are drawing headlines, but a $375 million penalty against a company worth $1.5 trillion is a rounding error. The award is less than 2% of Meta’s $22.8 billion net income in 2025. Meta’s stock rose 5% on the day of the New Mexico verdict, indicating how the market assessed the effect of the penalty on the company.

Fines without structural change are more akin to licensing fees than accountability. As a technology policy and law scholar, I believe the question of whether these verdicts will produce real changes to the products that millions of children use every day is more consequential than the jury awards.

The answer is not yet, and not automatically. A financial penalty does not rewrite a single line of code, remove an algorithm or place a safety engineer in a role that was eliminated to protect a quarterly earnings report. Meta and Google have signaled they will appeal, with First Amendment challenges to the product-design theory the likely central battleground.

The companies’ lawyers are likely to argue, with some justification, that the science linking the design of platforms to mental health harm remains contested, and that the companies have already implemented safety measures. In the meantime, Instagram, Facebook anf YouTube will continue to operate exactly as they did before the verdicts.

The verdicts against Meta pave the way for hundreds or even thousands of similar cases.

Consumer protection

Most coverage framing the New Mexico verdict casts it as a child safety case. It is that, but it also presents a more technically significant dimension: a consumer protection claim grounded in allegations of corporate deception. New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez did not sue Meta for what users posted, but instead sued Meta for its false statements about its own platform safety, employing a novel legal approach.

For three decades, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act has shielded internet platforms from liability for content generated by their users. Courts have interpreted Section 230 immunity broadly, and many earlier attempts to hold platforms accountable for child harm have foundered on it.

The New Mexico complaint, filed in December 2023, was drafted with explicit awareness of this obstacle. It asked a single question: Did Meta knowingly lie to New Mexico consumers about the safety of its products?

The jury’s answer was yes, on all counts, and its verdict rested on three distinct legal theories under New Mexico’s Unfair Practices Act.

The first was straightforward deception: Meta’s public statements, ranging from CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s congressional testimony claiming research about the platform’s addictiveness was inconclusive to parental guidance materials that omitted known risks of grooming and sexual exploitation, qualify as representations made in connection with a commercial transaction.

Users pay for Meta’s platforms not with money but with their data, which Meta then converts into advertising revenue. New Mexico successfully argued that this data-for-services exchange constitutes commerce under the state’s consumer protection statute, and that misrepresentations made within it are actionable regardless of Section 230.

The second theory was unfair practice, or conduct offensive to public policy, even if not technically deceptive. Here, the evidence centered on what Meta’s own engineers and executives knew and then ignored.

Internal documents showed repeated warnings. These alarm bells centered around child sexual abuse material proliferating on the platforms, about algorithms that amplified harmful content because it generated engagement, and about age verification systems that were essentially cosmetic. The company overrode those warnings for commercial reasons.

The jury was shown a specific sequence: Meta executives requested staffing to address platform harms, Zuckerberg declined, and the company continued to publicly represent its safety efforts as adequate.

The third theory was unconscionability: taking advantage of consumers who lacked the capacity to protect themselves. Children are the clearest possible case. Children cannot evaluate terms of service, cannot negotiate platform architecture, and cannot assess the neurological implications of engagement-maximizing design. Meta had comprehensive internal research documenting these vulnerabilities and chose to ignore rather than mitigate them.

Bellwether on addictiveness

The Los Angeles case, which concluded on March 25, tested a different theory. It was a personal injury trial rather than a government enforcement action.

The plaintiff, identified in court as KGM, is a 20-year-old woman who began using YouTube at age 6 and Instagram at age 9. Her lawyers argued that the platforms’ deliberate design choices such as infinite scroll, autoplay video and engagement-based recommendation algorithms were the causes of her addiction, depression and self-harm.

The jury found both Meta and YouTube negligent in the design of their platforms and found that each company’s negligence was a substantial factor in causing harm to KGM. Meta bears 70% of the liability; YouTube 30%. The individual $3 million compensatory award is modest. The punitive damages phase, still to come, will be calculated against each company’s net worth and is likely to produce a very different number.

six woman seated outside a building have facial expressions indicating surprise and happiness
An attorney for, and family members of, child victims of social media harms react to the verdict in a lawsuit in Los Angeles on March 25, 2026.
Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Beyond the general precedent, this case matters because it is a bellwether. It was selected from a consolidated group of hundreds of similar lawsuits to test whether a product-design theory of liability could survive a jury trial, and it did. That finding has immediate and concrete implications: Each of those plaintiffs now litigates on a stronger footing, and if the damages awarded to KGM are even partially scaled across similar cases, the total financial exposure for Meta and YouTube moves from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars.

More importantly, the bellwether verdict signals to every other plaintiff, attorney and state attorney general that this legal pathway is viable, and to every platform that the courtroom is no longer a safe harbor. The legal strategy established that negligence claims against platform design are viable in California courts.

Public nuisance

Beginning May 4, 2026, Judge Bryan Biedscheid in the New Mexico case is scheduled to hear the public nuisance count without a jury in a bench trial. Public nuisance is a legal doctrine traditionally used to address conditions that harm the general public. This doctrine has been used in concern over contaminated water, lead paint in housing stock and opioid distribution networks.

New Mexico is arguing that Meta’s platform architecture constitutes exactly such a condition. If the judge agrees, the remedy is not a fine. Instead, it is an abatement: a court order requiring Meta to eliminate the harmful condition.

Attorney General Torrez has already been explicit about what he will ask for: real age verification, not a checkbox asking users to confirm they are old enough; algorithm changes; and an independent monitor with authority to oversee compliance. These are structural demands on how the platform operates.

This is where drawing a parallel with Big Tobacco is apt. The tobacco litigation of the 1990s ultimately produced not just financial settlements but the Master Settlement Agreement, which imposed permanent restrictions on marketing practices and funded public health programs for decades. The public nuisance theory in the New Mexico case is designed to produce an analogous structural outcome for social media.

Precedent for tidal wave of cases

The significant effects of two verdicts are about evidence and precedent. For the first time, a jury has examined Meta’s internal documents – emails from engineers warning about self-harm, the rejected safety proposals and Zuckerberg’s personal decisions to prioritize engagement over protection – and returned a verdict that those documents mean precisely what they appear to say.

That finding, and the legal theories that produced it, is now part of the foundation on which 40-plus pending state attorney general cases, thousands of individual lawsuits and a federal trial later this year are likely to be built.

The abatement phase, beginning May 4, may prove more consequential than the dollar amounts. If the judge in the New Mexico case – or any judge in a subsequent case – orders real age verification, algorithm changes and an independent monitor, that would be a true structural change.

The Conversation

I was staff at organizations including the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Public Knowledge, and the Harvard Berkman Klein Center, which were funded by various foundations and companies. Refer to their websites for disclosures. I was a staff member in the connectivity policy team at Facebook (2016-2018). I am an advisory board member of non-profits, including Internet Lab (Brazil) and Derechos Digitales (Chile). I am a senior advisor (without any honorarium) at the Datasphere Initiative and Portulans Institute. More details at https://www.carolinarossini.net/bio

ref. Two verdicts in two days: How American courts are rewriting the rules for Big Tech and children – https://theconversation.com/two-verdicts-in-two-days-how-american-courts-are-rewriting-the-rules-for-big-tech-and-children-279401

What does China’s host bid mean for the High Seas Treaty?

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Philippe Le Billon, Professor, Geography Department and School of Public Policy & Global Affairs, University of British Columbia

Delegates are meeting in New York for the third session of the preparatory commission (PrepCom 3) on the Agreement on Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ), also known as the High Seas Treaty.

After nearly 20 years of negotiations, United Nations member states adopted the treaty in June 2023. When it opened for signatures that September, 67 countries signed immediately. In January 2026, Morocco and Sierra Leone then became the 60th and 61st states to ratify, triggering the treaty’s entry into force.

The treaty is now international law. At the time of writing, 145 countries have signed and 85 have ratified.

The third session of the preparatory commission must now work through how the treaty will actually function. A key question in corridor conversations is: who should host the secretariat?

Every international treaty needs an institutional home. The High Seas Treaty is no different. It requires a secretariat to co-ordinate between parties, service meetings and manage information.

For months, Belgium and Chile were the only contenders, their bids quietly taking shape in the background of treaty negotiations. Then, in January 2026, China submitted a formal bid with Xiamen as the proposed host city. That announcement changed the optics of the negotiations.

The geography of diplomacy

A city with highrises and other buildings near a bay
Valparaíso in Chile is one of the three cities being considered to host the High Seas Treaty’s secretariat.
(Roz Lawson), CC BY-NC-ND

Where that secretariat sits may be seen as an administrative question, a matter of office space and convenience. It is not.

The location of secretariats, and diplomatic venues in general, shapes how they function in practice. It influences who gravitates toward the institution and which delegations can afford to attend. It sways what issues get quietly elevated and what institutional culture takes root. Location is a form of proximity and proximity is a form of influence.

Belgium has put forward Brussels, pointing to its dense ecosystem of international organizations and more than 300 diplomatic missions.

Chile has offered Valparaíso on an equity argument: Latin America has never hosted a universal-membership environmental secretariat and the Global South deserves a seat at the table.

China’s late entry adds a strong contender to the process.

Concerns about China’s influence

China has more at stake in how the high seas are governed than almost any other state. It has the world’s largest distant-water fishing fleet and has faced sustained international criticism over illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. It also holds more deep-sea mineral exploration contracts through the International Seabed Authority than any other nation.

It has been among the most assertive in defending its maritime claims, even when those claims have been rejected by international courts, including through declaring a “nature reserve” on the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

Though fishing controversially remains largely outside its scope, the BBNJ agreement intervenes in key pressure points, most notably through enforceable marine protected areas and new environmental standards for activities that have historically escaped meaningful oversight.

For some observers, that combination makes the secretariat bid difficult to reconcile. Lyn Goldsworthy, a veteran Southern Ocean researcher at the University of Tasmania, has pointed to China’s reluctance over the creation of marine protected areas in the Antarctic high seas. “If they are in that influential [position],” she told Dialogue Earth, “they can slow things down.”

Analysts at India’s National Maritime Foundation have raised the further risk of what they call procedural drift, the idea that formally neutral administrative practices can quietly embed particular governance norms over time.

However, the case is less clear-cut than it looks.

Giving China a stake in the treaty’s success

A coastal cityscape with tall glass buildings and smaller structures
China has proposed the city of Xiamen in Fujian Province as a potential host city for the High Seas Treaty secretariat.
(Unsplash/Letian Zhang)

Skepticism about China’s bid is understandable, but the case against it is weaker than it first appears. Begin with the international picture. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, has described the bid as a “significant escalation” in China’s engagement with global governance, one that signals the Chinese want to play an active role in shaping international rules.

If China’s institutional credibility is visibly tied to BBNJ’s success, it has more reasons to want the treaty to function. China has ratified the agreement. It joined the Port State Measures Agreement, the principal instrument targeting illegal fishing, despite late accession and uneven implementation.

Its navy is the fastest-growing maritime force in the world. Its financial, infrastructural and human capacity to run a serious international institution is not in question.

There is possibly an even more important dimension. Scholars focused on Chinese fisheries governance have documented the persistent tension between central government policy and the behaviour of provincial authorities and distant-water operators, a gap that domestic regulation has struggled to close.




Read more:
China is struggling to control its provinces as they expand distant-water fishing


International treaty commitments can, in principle, function as a mechanism for central governments to exert leverage that internal channels cannot easily provide. Whether the BBNJ treaty might operate that way for China is an open question, but it is one worth taking seriously.

A China genuinely embedded in the framework may behave differently within it than a China left on the outside. The UN’s 30-by-30 target to protect 30 per cent of the world’s oceans by 2030 depends heavily on what happens in the high seas. So does any serious effort to crack down on illegal fishing or establish enforceable marine protected areas in international waters.

None of this is a straightforward argument for or against China hosting. It is a narrower claim: that the case against it is weaker than it first appears because it assumes that Chinese involvement would inevitably hollow out the treaty’s environmental ambition. That assumption is not obviously correct.

What conditions that would make the treaty work rather than fail are not mysterious. The secretariat would need genuine independence in its leadership. Governance structures would need to be transparent and enforceable. The treaty culture would need to be robust enough to resist pressure from the host state and to be responsive to all parties. These are demanding conditions. They are also conditions being negotiated right now.

What is actually at stake

The formal decision on where to locate the secretariat will be taken at the first Conference of the Parties, expected in early 2027. The institutional architecture being built at PrepCom 3 will shape what kind of institution the secretariat becomes before that vote is ever taken.

The governance rules and independence provisions being drafted now will determine whether the hosting question is a story about institutional capture or about the diligent implementation of a treaty that covers nearly half the planet.

The BBNJ agreement is a test of something larger than ocean governance. It is a test of whether international institutions can still function as common ground as the United States withdraws from international organizations and treaties.

Where the secretariat sits is not a technicality. It is about whether the high seas remain a global common in practice, not just in name, through an institution operating with independence, credibility and authority.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What does China’s host bid mean for the High Seas Treaty? – https://theconversation.com/what-does-chinas-host-bid-mean-for-the-high-seas-treaty-279317

‘I didn’t come here to get rich’: new research on the lives of Ukrainian women in Georgia’s surrogacy boom

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Olga Oleinikova, Associate Professor and Director of the SITADHub (Social Impact Technologies and Democracy Research Hub) in the School of Communication, University of Technology Sydney

Jonas Gratzer/LightRocket via Getty Images

“I didn’t come here to get rich. I came because I had no other way to keep my son safe and care for my displaced family”.

Anna is a 28-year-old woman from eastern Ukraine. She fled the country in 2023 after Russian troops invaded. Two years later, she agreed to become a surrogate in Georgia for wealthy foreign couples.

We met Anna, who was already pregnant, in a quiet apartment that had been rented for her by a surrogacy agency on the outskirts of the capital, Tbilisi.

Our multidisciplinary team was in Georgia to conduct a pilot research project examining the small country’s rapidly expanding surrogacy industry.

We conducted in-depth interviews with Ukrainian women to better understand their motivations for entering surrogacy arrangements, their experiences within the system, and the social, economic, and legal factors shaping their decision-making and wellbeing.

We also analysed publicly available policy and regulatory documents from the government to examine how the sector operates. We paid particular attention to emerging regulatory challenges, gaps in oversight and the state’s efforts to balance economic opportunity with ethical and human rights considerations.

The shifting geography of surrogacy

Surrogacy laws vary widely around the world. Some countries, including Australia, prohibit commercial surrogacy. Others allow it under specific conditions. These differences create cross-border markets, where intended parents travel abroad to access services that are restricted, expensive or unavailable at home.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest commercial surrogacy hubs. Estimates suggest between 2,000 and 2,500 babies were born each year through surrogacy arrangements.

War disrupted the industry. Clinics closed or relocated. Travel became dangerous. Media outlets reported on intended parents struggling to reach newborns and surrogates displaced by fighting. Georgia became a safe alternative.

The Beta Fertility clinic run by the New Life Georgia surrogacy agency in Tbilisi in November 2023.
Photo by Marie Audinet / Hans Lucas via AFP

International surrogacy has been legal in Georgia since 1997. That’s when the country adopted legislation allowing both gestational (a woman carrying an embryo not genetically related to her) and traditional surrogacy (a woman carrying an embryo for another couple using her own egg). The first children were born through gestational surrogacy around 2007.

The country’s clear legal framework – recognising intended parents as the child’s legal guardians from birth and granting no parental rights to the surrogate – has been a key factor in its appeal.

Costs are also significantly lower than in the United States. As independent international surrogacy consultant Olga Pysana told us:

In the last year, surrogacy in Georgia cost approximately US$55,000 to $85,000 (A$78,000 to A$120,000), whereas surrogacy in the United States can cost as much as US$250,000 (A$350,000).

With international demand surging in the 2010s, Georgia (a small country of 3.7 million people) quickly became unable to meet the needs of so many parents with local women alone. So clinics began recruiting potential surrogates from abroad, including from Ukraine, Central Asian countries, Russia, Belarus, Thailand and the Philippines.

Mobile surrogates

Several of the women we interviewed had previously worked with Ukrainian agencies. After the invasion, recruiters contacted them again – this time offering placements in Georgia.

Displacement has produced a new and economically vulnerable workforce. We describe these women as “mobile surrogates”: women who move across borders to provide reproductive labour in response to war, economic crises or changing surrogacy laws. “If there was no war, I would never have left,” Anna told us.

Most of the women we interviewed had lost homes, jobs or partners. Many were supporting children and extended family members across borders. Anna had worked in a shop before the war, then cleaned houses in Poland. “Surrogacy in Georgia pays in nine months what I would earn in years,” she said.

Our research found that surrogates are typically paid around US$20,000 (A$35,500) in instalments. For families displaced by war, this amount of money can cover rent, relocation costs and schooling.

A surrogate undergoes an ultrasound scan at the Beta Fertility Clinic in Tbilisi, Georgia, in November 2023.
Marie Audinet/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty images

But the arrangements come with strict contractual conditions. Women may face limits on travel, their diets and daily routines. Some live in shared apartments organised by agencies.

Independent legal advice is rare. Anna signed a contract in a language she did not fully understand, but felt she had little alternative: “I just needed something stable. I couldn’t keep moving from place to place”.

Georgia’s legal framework says little about labour standards, housing conditions or long-term health support for surrogates after birth. The result is an imbalance: strong protections for intended parents, and weaker safeguards for the women carrying babies.

A draft bill was introduced in 2023 aimed at curbing paid surrogacy for foreigners, due to growing concerns about the commercialisation of the industry and potential exploitation of surrogate mothers. However, it is still pending. As of early 2026, surrogacy remains legal in Georgia for foreign heterosexual couples.

Three trends we are seeing

First, reproductive markets are highly responsive to crises. When Ukraine’s industry became unstable, demand shifted rapidly to Georgia. Global fertility markets operate like other transnational industries: when one site contracts, another expands.

Second, economic inequality shapes who participates. Displacement and financial insecurity increase women’s willingness to enter demanding reproductive arrangements.

Third, the surrogates bear the brunt of regulatory ambiguities and associated risks and challenges. This includes dealing with contracts and medical procedures in languages they don’t understand.

Reform is needed

In Georgia, clearer labour protections are essential: minimum housing standards, transparent payment schedules, and mandatory, independent legal advice in a language surrogates understand. Health coverage for the women should also extend beyond birth.

The major markets for surrogacy services, including China, the US, Australia, Israel, Germany and others, should also review how their citizens engage in overseas surrogacy. This includes stronger regulation of agencies marketing abroad and clearer ethical guidance for intended parents.

Finally, greater international coordination is needed. Shared standards for cross-border surrogacy would improve transparency and accountability in a rapidly expanding and loosely regulated global market.

As demand grows, the central question is not whether cross-border surrogacy will continue, but whether it can be governed in ways that safeguard fairness, transparency and the rights of the women whose bodies sustain it.

The Conversation

Nothing to disclose.

Olga Oleinikova and Polina Vlasenko do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘I didn’t come here to get rich’: new research on the lives of Ukrainian women in Georgia’s surrogacy boom – https://theconversation.com/i-didnt-come-here-to-get-rich-new-research-on-the-lives-of-ukrainian-women-in-georgias-surrogacy-boom-276173

A Bible Belt track without a pulse – it’s no surprise fans hate the 2026 FIFA World Cup song Lighter

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Brent Keogh, Lecturer in the School of Communications, University of Technology Sydney

The release of the first FIFA World Cup 2026 song Lighter by American country artist Jelly Roll, Mexican singer Carín León and Canadian producer Cirkut, has left an odd taste in the mouth of fans, like waking up in the back of a Chevy truck after accidentally downing a bottle of bargain-bin bourbon.

As the United States, Canada and Mexico prepare to host the World Cup in June, the change in genre from “world-infused” pop to Bible Belt-style country-rock reflects the awkwardness of the tournament being hosted in an increasingly isolationist America.

Themes of unity and diversity

Since the early 1990s, FIFA World Cup songs and anthems have usually reflected something of the local flavour of the host country while simultaneously promoting the ideals of global unity.

For example, the 2022 song Hayya Hayya promotes the ideal that “we are better together”. It vibrates with the rhythmic complexity of North African folk traditions, before moving into a more commercial reggae groove.

Jennifer Lopez and Pitbull’s 2014 song, We are One, incorporates Brazilian inflections in an otherwise characteristically in-your-face Pitbull dance track. Nevertheless, the global sentiment remains: “it’s your world, my world, our world today, and we invite the whole world, whole world to play”.

Similarly, Jason Derulo’s 2018 World Cup track Colors (also a Coca Cola promotional song), celebrates national pride – “I’m going to wave my flag” – while also declaring “there’s beauty in the unity we’ve found”.

Where is the excitement?

Though Lighter is a collaboration between the three host countries, it marks a significant musical shift from the characteristic European, Latino and “World” inflected pop of previous songs.

There have been other stylistic shifts in the past. The 2006 World Cup track was Time of Our Lives, a slow operatic pop ballad by Il Divo and Toni Braxton.

But Lighter isn’t another example of this. It isn’t a ballad – yet it still lacks the high energy buzz of fan favourites such as Shakira’s Waka Waka (2010 South Africa World Cup), Santana’s Dar Um Jeito (We Will Find a Way) (2014 Brazil World Cup) and Ricky Martin’s The Cup of Life (1998 France World Cup).

The usual rhythmic vitality of a World Cup song is stripped back to a country-rock dirge with an odd, almost tokenistic Spanish bridge – an offering that might more appropriately feature in a Trolls World Tour. Fans are not having it.

As one user in the YouTube comments asks: “La emoción, la pasión y el ritmo mundialista, dónde está todo eso?” (“The excitement, the passion and the World Cup rhythm, where is all that?”).

Roll between the Lord and the Devil

Lighter has also been criticised for its religious allusions. One listener bemoans: “It’s a football tournament, but let’s make a song about church choirs, Chevy trucks, chains and muddy boots”.

Although past World Cup songs have contained religious allusions, Lighter’s odd sense of the sacred is more like trying to pass off a Lord Elrond action figure as a statue of Saint Anthony.

The song is replete with the forced language of a sinner’s conversion (“chains don’t rattle no more”, “lay my burdens down”), as analogous to the flow-state of a footballer, free from whatever personal or collective trials that might have been holding them back.

As in many a good country song, the protagonist is involved in a cosmic battle for his soul.

Jelly Roll is “praying [his] way out of […] hell”. He even has a run in with the Devil, although he doesn’t trade his soul for musical talent. Rather, he escapes the Devil’s attempts to “catch” him as his boots have left the ground.

You could be forgiven for questioning whether this song was about football at all, or whether it is more reflective of Jelly Roll’s own personal conversion story (he has recently been open in proclaiming his faith in Jesus).

In Lighter, the collective “we” of previous World Cup songs has been replaced with the individualistic “I” – the local taking precedence over the global.

The elephant in the room

Now, to be fair, there are some aspects of Lighter that align with the values of its predecessors. One key theme of the song is the sense of the fight, of overcoming obstacles, and gaining individual freedom. This aligns with FIFA’s stated purpose of the song, which it says was “created for the most inclusive FIFA World Cup in history”.

However, with ICE agents likely to be haunting football stadiums like dementors – and strained relationships between the US and neighbours such as Venezuela, Mexico, Canada and Cuba (not to mention Iran) – it is questionable whether FIFA’s goals of inclusivity will be felt and realised.

Instead, Jelly Roll and Carín León’s country-rock tune seems to more accurately reflect the current US administration’s isolationist approach to global foreign policy: we know we’re in the world, but we’d rather not be.

Perhaps the next World Cup song in 2030 will bring back the excitement, passion and rhythm that fans love, and reiterate the globalist ideals of the game. For now, Lighter remains a missed penalty shot.

The Conversation

Brent Keogh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A Bible Belt track without a pulse – it’s no surprise fans hate the 2026 FIFA World Cup song Lighter – https://theconversation.com/a-bible-belt-track-without-a-pulse-its-no-surprise-fans-hate-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-song-lighter-279111

Trump is remaking the US media in his own image – and smashing accountability with it

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Rodney Tiffen, Emeritus Professor, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

This is the point of absurdity we have reached: on March 15, US President Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post, asserted that American news organisations were running AI-generated Iranian propaganda, and should be charged with treason for the dissemination of false information. One of the instances he cited was coverage of Iranians at a rally to support new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, which he said was totally AI-generated, and the event never took place, despite abundant evidence to the contrary.

The most powerful man in the world is making large and important claims, one palpably false, the others without offering any evidence, and it seems few if any people take him seriously. Then he blithely threatens to charge unnamed people with treason, which in the United States is potentially a capital offence, and again it is not clear anyone takes him seriously. Despite the all-but-universal dismissal of his statements, he will probably suffer no political consequences. It is just another drop in an ocean of unaccountability.

One reason it will pass with negligible consequences is that these accusations have become so commonplace. Republicans have long railed against the “liberal” news media, but the Trump administration has brought such attacks to a new level of intensity.

In 2017, his first year in office, Trump denounced “fake news” and called the media the enemy of the American people. He said he had a “running war” with the media, and described journalists as “among the most dishonest human beings on Earth”.

Trump’s standard response to a question he doesn’t want to answer is to call the reporter (especially female reporters) a nasty person, or to denounce the organisation they work for. Recently his response to a US ABC reporter’s question was that her employer “may be the most corrupt news organisation on the planet. I think they’re terrible.”

As the war with Iran threatened to become more politically contentious, the administration has trained its rhetorical sights on the media. Trump endorsed Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr’s threat to revoke broadcast licences of “the corrupt and highly unpatriotic media”:

They get billions of Dollars of FREE American airwaves, and use it to perpetuate LIES, both in news and almost all of their shows, including the Late Night Morons, who get gigantic Salaries for horrible Ratings.

Far more than any of his predecessors, Trump concerns himself with individuals and media organisations. For example, he thought Netflix should dismiss one of its board members who had worked for his Democrat predecessors Barack Obama and Joe Biden: “Netflix should fire, racist, Trump deranged Susan Rice IMMEDIATELY.”

A history of legal action

Trump has gone beyond rhetorical denunciations, however. He is the first US president, in recent times at least, to sue a news organisation. His targets so far have included the Pulitzer Prize Board, the Des Moines Register and its pollster Ann Selzer, the Wall St Journal, the New York Times, Penguin Random House and the BBC.

Without exception, his writs have no legal merit. (He has already lost suits against the New York Times, Washington Post and CNN). They are a means of harassment or perhaps just a threat: Trump sued CBS in 2024 over the editing of a 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris. Initially CBS said the case had no merit. However, in July 2025 it agreed to settle for $16 million.

The agreement came amid CBS parent company Paramount’s $8.4 billion merger with Skydance, which received regulatory approval weeks later. Stephen Colbert, host of its top-rating night show, called it “a big fat bribe”. Three days later Colbert’s show was cancelled, which the network said was purely a financial decision.

Trump congratulated himself in a post on his Truth Social site under the headline “President Trump is reshaping the media”. He listed 12 media organisations and individuals who are “gone”, such as CNN reporter Jim Acosta and Colbert. Then he listed a dozen “reforms”, such as CNN having new ownership. He finished the post with the word “Winning”.

Apart from the president, the most enthusiastic member of the cabinet in harassing the media is former Fox News presenter, now secretary of war, Pete Hegseth. Last year he announced that journalists who solicited unauthorised military information would have their access revoked and be deemed a security risk. Fifty-five out of 56 accredited journalists refused to sign the new agreement. In March a judge ruled the policy was unconstitutional but the government has said it will appeal.

Recently, Hegseth thought photos of him were “unflattering”, so photographers were banned from his next two briefings.

So it is not surprising Hegseth has been a vocal critic of media coverage. He finished one recent tirade by saying: “The sooner David Ellison takes over [CNN], the better.”

Ellison at the wheel

What is new and alarming about this is the reference to Ellison. It follows one of the biggest corporate takeovers in history. Ellison’s company, Paramount Skydance, has just succeeded in taking over Warner Bros Discovery. CNN is part of the package Ellison has acquired.

David is the son of Larry Ellison, the sixth-richest person in the world, who founded Oracle, a wildly successful software company. After Trump became president, the Ellisons moved into media in a big way.

The family first attracted public prominence when it was a central part of Trump choreographing the formation of a US TikTok company. Biden, with the approval of Congress, had sought to ban the popular video-sharing platform because of worries about security with the Chinese company ByteDance. Instead, Trump, on his first day of this second term, started a process to make it US-based, to remove the security risk.

In the end, Ellison’s Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX became the three managing investors, each holding a 15% share in the new company. The Chinese company ByteDance retained 19.9% of the joint venture. Oracle would also handle all the software aspects. All up, a very Trump-friendly outcome.

The Ellisons next attracted attention in July 2025, when their niche media company Skydance merged with Paramount to form Paramount Plus. This made them the owner not only of one of the biggest film studios but also of TV network CBS. The consequences for CBS news have already been far-reaching.

Ellison began by pledging to end the company’s “diversity equity and inclusion” initiatives. He appointed as ombudsman the former head of a conservative think tank and named Bari Weiss, a centre-right advocate, as editor-in-chief of CBS News.

An early controversy hit with a CBS 60 Minutes episode on a notorious prison in El Salvador, where the US government is sending migrant detainees. Although it was cleared through all the normal internal processes, the story was blocked at the last minute in what the reporter called an act of censorship. It was shown four weeks later.

Six out of 20 evening news producers have left CBS, with one, Alicia Hastey, saying the kind of work she came to do was increasingly impossible, as stories were now evaluated not just on their journalistic merit but on whether they conform to a shifting set of ideological expectations.

In a missive to the newsroom, Weiss declared “we love America” should be the guiding principle for the relaunch of CBS Evening News. Putting this into practice, the new anchor of the evening news, Tony Dokoupil, finished one program by saying “[Secretary of State] Marco Rubio, we salute you”.

Ellison’s early acquisitions were dwarfed by the recent battle between Paramount Plus and Netflix to take over Warner Bros Discovery, which Paramount finally won in February 2026. Paramount’s final, winning offer valued the company at US$111 billion (A$159 billion), paying US$31 (A$44) per share. Months earlier, Netflix’s original offer was US$19 (A$27) per share. Assuming the deal goes through, Paramount will carry an estimated US$90 billion (A$128.6 billion) of debt, but it will also have a conglomerate of media-related holdings like no other company in history.

Despite the size of the takeover, which has several implications for reduced competition, commentators are confident it will achieve regulatory approval. This is principally because in the Trump era there is a strong, shall we say, transactional flavour about when regulation is enforced and when not. Trump has described the Ellisons as “two great people”. “They’re friends of mine. They’re big supporters of mine. And they’ll do the right thing.”

Media monsters

In the 1950s, looking at the way Australian newspaper companies came to control the new commercial radio and television stations, journalist Colin Bednall referred to “media monsters”. Around 1990, British media commentator Anthony Smith wrote a book titled The Age of Behemoths, looking especially at the way large corporations such as News Corp had gone international.

But both were talking about media pygmies compared with the new mega-corporation owned by the Ellisons. Apart from their software business and extensive real estate holdings, they now have a central player, TikTok, in social media. They own two of the biggest five US movie studios, they have two of the biggest five streaming services, they have large entertainment producing corporations in Discovery, Warner Bros and CBS, and they own two of the most important TV news services – CBS and CNN.

This gives them the usual commercial advantages over smaller newcomers trying to break in. It also means the news services are owned by a conglomerate that has many other interests, including some that demand negotiation with the government.

In trying to understand the moment we are living through, it is often difficult to disentangle what is of momentary significance and what of lasting importance. What are egomaniacal histrionics that will fade into history with Trump? And which signal ongoing threats to the fabric of democratic institutions?

The unprecedented media empire built by the Ellisons will not disappear, no matter who wins the next election.

The Conversation

Rodney Tiffen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Trump is remaking the US media in his own image – and smashing accountability with it – https://theconversation.com/trump-is-remaking-the-us-media-in-his-own-image-and-smashing-accountability-with-it-279107

I went to CPAC and found Trump supporters unhappy about Iran, Epstein files and the economy, even while the fans at the MAGA conference celebrate his immigration policies

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alex Hinton, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology; Director, Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University – Newark

Attendees wearing MAGA merch stand next to an image of Trump at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas, on March 25, 2026. Leandro Lozada AFP/Getty Images

There is a pall over the Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement. Donald Trump overpromised. His public support has fallen. Some “America First” die-hards now openly criticize him.

Amid war, economic challenges, democratic backsliding, the Epstein files and Americans shot dead in the street by government agents, Trump’s support is softening and his vow to bring a “golden age of America” is looking more like a political winter for Trump and his MAGA movement.

This is my big takeaway from this year’s annual Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC. The event, organized by the American Conservative Union, launched with an international summit on March 25, 2026, and runs through March 28 in Grapevine, Texas.

Don’t get me wrong. The attendees are decked out in red, white and blue MAGA merch: sequined “Trump” purses and jackets, USA flag bags, ties and headbands, and, of course, iconic red MAGA caps. As always, they chant “USA,” even if not as often or as loudly as before.

Starting with the first talk by Rev. Franklin Graham, speakers here are still singing Trump’s praises. They underscore what they regard as major Trump 2.0 accomplishments: combating illegal immigration, cutting taxes, a budding economic boom, deregulation, U.S. gas and oil output surging, administrative state winnowing, pro-Christian policies and pulling the plug on the “woke” agenda.

These issues are foregrounded in sessions with titles like “Walls Work,” “Don’t Let Woke Marxists Raise Your Children,” “MAGA vs. Mullah Madness,” “Commies Go Home” and “Cancelling Satan.” In between, pro-Trump advertisements checklist Trump’s accomplishments.

This rose-tinted view is to be expected. After all, CPAC – a cross between a political rally, networking mixer and MAGA Comic-Con – is all about galvanizing the conservative base. Beneath the surface, however, MAGA is churning.

A man wearing a skullcap with a photo of Donald Trump on it stands at a table in a conference hall.
An attendee visits a stand at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas, on March 26, 2026.
Leandro Lozada/AFP via Getty Images

Major grievances

An anthropologist of American political culture and author of the book “It Can Happen Here,” I have been studying MAGA for years and attending CPAC since 2023. Attendees at last year’s CPAC, held a month after Trump’s inauguration, were jubilant, with nonstop talk of “the comeback kid” and “the golden age.”




Read more:
I went to CPAC as an anthropologist to see how Trump supporters are feeling − for them, a ‘golden age’ has begun


Why is the mood at this year’s CPAC more subdued?

Enthusiasm for Trump is dampened because some of his supporters feel he has betrayed America First principles, failed to fulfill key campaign promises and been unable to supercharge the economy. Here are their major grievances:

‘America First’ vs. ‘Israel First’

America First” is the guiding principle of MAGA. It encompasses border security, prioritizing the U.S. economy and ensuring rights such as free speech. It also means avoiding unnecessary wars.

This is why Trump’s support of the June 2025 “12-day war” on Iran led Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other MAGA influencers, who have tens of millions of followers, to criticize Trump. The conflict, they contend, served Israel’s interest – their phrase is “Israel First” – not those of the U.S.

Their criticisms became even more pronounced after the U.S. again began bombing Iran on Feb. 28, 2026. The criticism is part of a growing MAGA fissure with pro-Israel stalwarts such as conservative activists Mark Levin, Laura Loomer and Ben Shapiro, who support U.S. intervention in the Middle East. Things got so bad that after Levin called his fellow conservative media personality Megyn Kelly “unhinged, lewd and petulant,” she dubbed him “Micropenis Mark.”

A man casually dressed in a t-shirt, plaid shirt over that, a black baseball cap and sunglasses stands in a convention center room.
Former Proud Boys chairman Enrique Tarrio is seen at CPAC in Grapevine, Texas, on March 25, 2026.
Leandro Lozada/AFP via Getty Images

But the MAGA unease with the war extends well beyond the “America First” influencers.

It includes figures from the fringe far right such as provocateur Nick Fuentes, center-right “brocaster” Joe Rogan, and even the Trump administration itself – as illustrated by an intelligence officer whose resignation stated, “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

Notably, none of the main Trump critics have been scheduled to speak at this year’s CPAC. Some now call it “TPAC,” or the Trump Political Action Conference.

The Epstein files

MAGA also has a strong populist and anti-elite streak of conspiracy thinking.

Large numbers of Trump supporters, for example, believe there is an elite plot to what they call “replace” the white population with nonwhites through mass immigration. Many also bought into the QAnon conspiracy theory, which centers on the idea that Trump is fighting Satanic, deep state elites who are running a child sex trafficking operation.

On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to take down political, deep state and global elites. He also promised to release the Jeffrey Epstein files, which QAnon conspiracists and others believe prove elite debauchery, including pedophilia.

Trump didn’t deliver. He backtracked and stonewalled on the release of the Epstein files, raising MAGA suspicion that Trump himself is implicated or is protecting elites. Remarkably, one recent poll found that roughly half of Americans, including a quarter of Republicans, believe the Iran war was partly meant to distract from the Epstein files.

Economy and immigration

Trump is also facing headwinds on the bread-and-butter issues of the 2024 election: the economy and immigration.

At CPAC, speakers have repeatedly given him kudos for shutting down the border. Acknowledging the MAGA in-fighting, conservative commentator Benny Johnson said he wanted to “white pill” – or buck up – the audience by reminding them that Trump had stopped an “invasion” and brought “criminal alien border crossings down to zero.”

As a photo of Trump’s bloodied face after the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024, was displayed, Johnson claimed, “Our God saved President’s Trump’s life for this moment.”

But fewer Republicans approve of his handling of immigration compared with a year ago. Like many Americans, a growing number have misgivings about the strong-arm tactics used by government immigration enforcement agents in places such as Minnesota.

For many, the economy remains a serious worry. A recent poll, conducted before the Iran war, found that the vast majority of Americans, including large numbers of Republicans, are concerned about inflation, jobs and the cost of living. Health care, including the lost Obamacare subsidies, is also a source of consternation.

Few people believe the economy is “booming” – let alone that a “golden age” has arrived – as Trump and his allies often proclaim. The war with Iran, which has led to stock market declines and gas pump hikes, has only added to the unease.

MAGA ‘shattered’?

Amid the recent MAGA in-fighting about the Iran war, conservative podcaster Tim Pool proclaimed, “The MAGA coalition is shattered.”

Not exactly. Despite the many challenges Trump is facing, the vast majority of his MAGA base voters still support him – including almost 90% backing his war with Iran.

But Trump’s support has eased in several ways. First, even his hardcore supporters worry about the economy, and they want him to declare victory and exit the war. And second, Trump has lost support on the edges. Many people in the key groups with which he made crucial inroads in the last election – such as young men and nonwhite voters – have turned from him. The same is true for independents and other Trump voters who don’t identify as MAGA.

Trumpism isn’t dead, as the MAGA-merched crowds here at CPAC make clear. But Trump is struggling through a political winter that could signal the early stages of his MAGA movement’s decline.

The Conversation

Alex Hinton receives funding from Alex Hinton receives funding from the Rutgers-Newark Sheila Y. Oliver Center for Politics and Race in America, Rutgers Research Council, and Henry Frank Guggenheim Foundation.

ref. I went to CPAC and found Trump supporters unhappy about Iran, Epstein files and the economy, even while the fans at the MAGA conference celebrate his immigration policies – https://theconversation.com/i-went-to-cpac-and-found-trump-supporters-unhappy-about-iran-epstein-files-and-the-economy-even-while-the-fans-at-the-maga-conference-celebrate-his-immigration-policies-278856