Could Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest bring down the British monarchy?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Jo Coghlan, Associate Professor, Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, University of New England

When a royal faces scrutiny, it can feel like a rupture with tradition. Yet across the ages, British royals have repeatedly fallen under suspicion. What makes the arrest of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor so striking is that we have to reach back to the 17th century to find anything comparable.

The royals are by no means strangers to scandal, but allegations of law-breaking are another matter entirely. Mountbatten-Windsor’s fall from grace will have huge repercussions for the British royals, and it also gives us an insight into how the handling of the royals has changed since Queen Elizabeth’s death.

When the crown fell

This is not the first time the British royals have crossed paths with the law. In 1483, Richard III became associated with the disappearance of his nephews, the Princes in the Tower. The two princes were legitimate heirs and therefore direct threats to Richard’s claim to the throne. He was never tried in court, and historians still debate the evidence.

The most dramatic confrontation between monarchy and law came with Charles I. He was accused of treason during the English Civil War. He was arrested in 1649, tried and publicly executed. This act stunned Europe and shattered the belief royals were above the law.

As a consequence, England abolished the monarchy and became a republic under Oliver Cromwell. So the last time a member of the royal family was arrested and tried, the crown itself fell.

That precedent matters because it underscores how rare royal arrests are. For more than three centuries the monarchy has avoided that spectacle. The fact Andrew’s arrest forces comparison with Charles I reveals how rare the moment is.

Reputation as royal strategy

By the 19th century, the monarchy survived less through force and more through reputation. Under Queen Victoria (1837-1901), the crown cultivated domestic virtue and moral seriousness as a shield against instability. Respectability became a strategic defence against scandal.

However, fame and power inevitably lead to very high public interest, and scandals made their way into print culture and later mass media. Prince Albert Victor, the grandson of Queen Victoria, was accused of being Jack the Ripper. It’s a claim historians have largely rejected as conspiracy theory, yet it persists because it speaks to fears about royal cover-ups.

James II was removed from the throne in 1688 during the Glorious Revolution amid claims he undermined Protestantism laws and promoted Catholic officials. His perceived abuse of power, rather than a single prosecutable crime, cost him the throne.

In the 20th century, Edward VIII generated a different kind of unease. After his abdication in 1936, evidence emerged of his sympathy toward Nazi Germany followed by his 1937 meeting with Adolf Hitler in Germany. While there was no prosecution, it did cause serious damage to Edward’s standing and public trust.

The collapse of deference

For much of the 20th century, the monarchy operated within a culture of deference. The press refrained from reporting royals’ private lives and indiscretions were quietly managed. The arrangement insulated the royal family from sustained exposure. However, this began to change after a series of scandals in the 1990s. This eventually led Elizabeth II to call 1992 her annus horribilis.

The rise of tabloid journalism eroded old boundaries, and digital media dissolved them entirely. Silence now intensifies suspicion rather than calming it, as was the case with royal silence about the Princess of Wales’ health in early 2024, forcing them to go public with her cancer battle.

Influence, access and optics

Even before Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest, the optics were damaging.

His arrest lands in this transformed landscape. During his tenure as the United Kingdom’s Special Representative for International Trade and Investment, he cultivated relationships with political leaders and wealthy business figures across the Middle East and Central Asia. Critics questioned whether he blurred the line between official trade promotion and private networking.

The 2010 “cash for access” episode involving Mountbatten-Windsor’s wife Sarah Ferguson deepened that perception. She was filmed offering introductions to Andrew in exchange for substantial payment. Although she apologised and Andrew denied involvement, the imagery of monetised proximity to the crown was corrosive.

In 2021, an undercover investigation suggested the queen’s cousin Prince Michael of Kent was prepared to use his royal status to assist a fictitious company in exchange for payment. He denied wrongdoing, but the harm was done.

A brand without insulation

Under Elizabeth II, longevity conferred authority and steadiness that often softened scandal. Under Charles II, the institution appears more exposed. Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest disrupts and exposes the royal family to reputational damage. While he was later released, the scandal still has a long way to play out.

Charles is a constitutional monarch. He can’t interfere in police investigations or prosecutorial decisions without provoking a constitutional crisis. His authority is symbolic rather than executive.

But he can excise Andrew’s inner circle, including his daughters, further from public life. He has already stripped his brother of his royal titles and told him to leave his home, Royal Lodge.

Yet even that has limits. Charles’s power now rests less on control than on credibility. In a permanently watchful society, judgement is delivered not in private but in full view.

The precedent that lingers

The last time a reigning monarch was arrested, England abolished the monarchy and became a republic. The historical echo is impossible to ignore. It reminds us that when the crown becomes entangled with criminal process, the consequences resonate beyond the individual.

Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest underscores how fragile that trust can be and how decisively it is shaped by the court that really matters, that of public opinion. While Andrew is not the king, the scandal may have been softened if his brother Charles acted more decisevly and sooner to remove him from the inner circles of the monarchy.

Royal scandals chip away at the sense of mystery that has long protected the crown. The monarchy survives not because it holds real political power, but because it represents stability, dignity and something slightly removed from everyday life.

When royals are caught up in scandal, that sense of distance collapses, and the institution can begin to feel more fragile than untouchable.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Could Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest bring down the British monarchy? – https://theconversation.com/could-andrew-mountbatten-windsors-arrest-bring-down-the-british-monarchy-276508

Andrew’s arrest: will anything like this now happen in the US? Why hasn’t it so far?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

The stunning arrest of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor by UK police on suspicion of misconduct in public office must have chilled many powerful American men to the bone. They may now wonder: could something like this now happen in the US?

The former prince’s arrest is related to his association with dead sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and allegations he shared confidential material. Andrew has consistently denied wrongdoing and has been released under investigation.

To see UK police making arrests over allegations relating to Epstein contrasts strongly with the US where, so far, little has happened to further investigate those linked to the disgraced financier.

So, will we now see stronger Epstein-related investigative efforts and possibly even arrests in the US? And why haven’t we seen anything like that, so far?

Will this actually prompt stronger action in the US now?

It’s possible. The whole situation is fairly unpredictable, and there has been mounting pressure on people named in the Epstein files to resign or step aside, particularly in higher education.

In Congress, US lawmakers are pushing hard for accountability.

It’s important to remember the collapse of the rule of law in the US is far from inevitable.

The Epstein story still has a long way to play out yet, if only because of the weight of the documentary evidence that needs to be sorted through.

It’s also possible the arrest and potential prosecution of Mountbatten-Windsor (and others outside the UK) may end up revealing more from the Epstein story than has come out of the Department of Justice (DOJ) releases, which have been selective.

If the Mountbatten-Windsor case goes to trial – which is still far from certain – and as the scandal reverberates across Europe, that may end up circumventing efforts we have seen so far from the DOJ to slow-walk the release of Epstein-related documents and information.

Why haven’t big arrests like this happened in the US so far?

The most obvious reason is the stranglehold the Trump administration has on the DOJ.

The performance of the attorney-general, Pam Bondi, in the recent judiciary committee hearing is a fair indication of that.

To have the attorney-general – instead of being accountable and answering legitimate questions about the Epstein files – waxing lyrical about US President Donald Trump being the greatest president in American history tells you a lot about the political capture of that department.

Another extremely unsubtle sign of that capture is the large banner featuring Trump’s face that has just been slung across the Justice Department building.

All this tells you the DOJ is not an independent government department anymore. It has been captured and weaponised by the Trump administration.

It’s the same story at the FBI; instead of taking strong action over revelations appearing the Epstein files, the agency appears to be focused on investigating Trump’s claims about 2020 election “fraud” in Georgia.

That shouldn’t exactly be a surprise, given FBI Director Kash Patel wrote a series of children’s books depicting Trump as an unjustly wronged “king”.

The unfortunate truth is there’s no satisfactory answer as to why no significant arrests have been made in the US in relation to the Epstein files.

It’s partly the Trump administration’s capture of these agencies and departments.

But it’s also that the Epstein scandal implicates so many of the powerful in the US. These are enormous networks that span political divides, including some of the richest people in the world. And, of course, they’re very good at protecting themselves.

It’s also a marker of Trump’s capture of his political base. Viewed from the outside, it defies logic. You’d think a movement that coalesced around conspiracy theories there was a powerful cabal of paedophiles at work in the US would be loudly calling for arrests after the Epstein revelations.

The fact they’re not shows how ingrained their loyalty is, and the depth of the personality cult that has developed around Trump.

This base is far from a majority of the American people, but it is one that has – for now at least – largely captured the major levers of power in the US.

So following Andrew’s arrest, will anything happen in the US? It’s possible, but don’t hold your breath.

The other major news is it now looks increasingly likely Trump is about to start a war in Iran.

It’s common for people to say he does things like that to distract from the Epstein story.

But I see his efforts in Iran (and Venezuela, and elsewhere) as part of a concerted effort to radically reshape American society and the United States’ role in the world. It’s about the reassertion of American power – which Trump understands to mean his own power.

The president unilaterally declaring a war on Iran without the ascent of Congress would defy the law. This is all part of a broader pattern of the Trump administration’s attacks on rule of law and the institutions charged with implementing it.

Overall, Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest throws into stark relief the state of the US compared to other democracies like the UK.

What’s happened in the UK shows the collapse of the rule of law is not inevitable. Institutions can hold, even if they they are slow and deeply flawed.

Perhaps we will one day see institutions in the US working as they are supposed to, too.

The Conversation

Emma Shortis is director of International and Security Affairs at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

ref. Andrew’s arrest: will anything like this now happen in the US? Why hasn’t it so far? – https://theconversation.com/andrews-arrest-will-anything-like-this-now-happen-in-the-us-why-hasnt-it-so-far-276512

Why has Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor been arrested, and what legal protections does the royal family have?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Francesca Jackson, PhD candidate, Lancaster Law School, Lancaster University

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office. The arrest comes after the US government released files that appeared to indicate he had shared official information with financier and convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein while serving as a trade envoy for the UK. But the police have not given details of exactly what they are investigating.

It is important to be clear that the arrest is not related to accusations of sexual assault or misconduct. In 2022, Mountbatten-Windsor reached a settlement with the late Virginia Giuffre for an undisclosed sum that did not include an admission of liability.

Being named in the Epstein files is not an indication of misconduct. Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any wrongdoing in his association with Epstein and and has previously rejected any suggestion he used his time as trade envoy to further his own interests.

What was Mountbatten-Windsor’s official role and why did he lose it?

In 2001, Tony Blair’s government made the then-prince the UK’s special representative for trade and investment. According to the government at the time, his remit was to “promote UK business internationally, market the UK to potential inward investors, and build relationships in support of UK business interests”. He did not receive a salary, but he did go on hundreds of trips to promote British businesses.

Members of the royal family are often deployed by the government on international missions to promote trade. When negotiating with other countries, particularly those which are also monarchies, sending a prominent figure like a royal may help seal the deal. Indeed, the then-government claimed that the former Duke of York’s “unique position gives him unrivalled access to members of royal families, heads of state, government ministers and chief executives of companies”.

It is not unusual for members of the royal family to be deployed by the government for diplomatic missions. Royals often host incoming state visits and lead similar visits abroad, and can be deployed to lead delegations on more specific missions.

However, Mountbatten-Windsor had an official role as trade envoy. He stepped down from this role in 2011 following reports about his friendship with Epstein, who was convicted of sex offences in 2011.




Read more:
What exactly is misconduct in public office and could Peter Mandelson be convicted?


Are royals protected from prosecution?

The monarch is protected by sovereign immunity, a wide-ranging constitutional principle exempting him from all criminal and civil liability. According to the leading 19th century constitutionalist Alfred Dicey, the monarch could not even be prosecuted for “shooting the Prime Minister through the head”. The Prince of Wales also enjoys immunity as Duke of Cornwall, which protects him from punishment for breaking a range of laws.

The State Immunity Act 1978, which confers immunity on the head of state, also extends to “members of the family forming part of the household”. However, this phrase has been interpreted narrowly to apply to a very tight circle of people and does not appear to apply to the monarch’s children in general. For example, in 2002 Princess Anne was prosecuted (though not arrested) for failing to control her dogs in Windsor Great Park after they bit two children.

Nevertheless, there has often been a perception that members of the royal family are held to a different standard when it comes to the law. In 2016 Thames Valley Police were criticised by anti-monarchy groups for not prosecuting the then-prince after newspaper reports alleged he had driven his car through the gates of Windsor Great Park. In 2019 the Crown Prosecution Service declined to prosecute Prince Philip for causing a car crash which injured two people.

The monarch also cannot be compelled to give evidence in court. For example, prosecutors were unable to summon the late queen to give evidence in the trial of Princess Diana’s former butler, who was accused of stealing her jewellery.

In response to Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest, the king said: “What now follows is the full, fair and proper process by which this issue is investigated in the appropriate manner and by the appropriate authorities. In this, as I have said before, they have our full and wholehearted support and co-operation. Let me state clearly: the law must take its course.”

When was the last time a royal was arrested?

You have to go back quite a long way to find the last time that a member of the British royal family was arrested. This was during the English civil war, when Charles I was taken prisoner for treason before being found guilty and ultimately executed in 1649.

A number of royals, including Princess Anne, have committed driving-related offences, including speeding. But this arrest makes Mountbatten-Windsor the first member of the royal family to be arrested in modern times, though it should be noted that he is no longer a royal – he was stripped of all his official titles in October 2025 as his friendship with Epstein came under even more scrutiny.

What limits do police have on investigating royal estates?

Sovereign immunity also prevents police from entering private royal estates to investigate alleged crimes without permission. This can, theoretically, protect members of the royal family from arrest and prosecution. The Cultural Property (Armed Conflicts) Act 2017 also bans police from searching royal estates for stolen or looted artefacts.

In 2007, two hen harriers were illegally shot at Sandringham estate. However, Norfolk Police first needed to ask Sandringham officials for permission to enter the estate, by which time the dead birds’ bodies had been removed. Police questioned Prince Harry, but did not bring charges.

Other incidents have allegedly led to Sandringham being accused of becoming a wildlife crime hotspot, with at least 18 reported cases of suspected wildlife offences taking place between 2003-23 – yet only one resulting in prosecution.

Another longstanding legal precedent is that no one may be arrested in the presence of the monarch or within the precincts of a royal palace. It was thought that this rule could protect other members of the royal family and royal employees. However, Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest at Sandringham suggests that this antiquated principle may no longer hold true today.

The Conversation

Francesca Jackson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why has Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor been arrested, and what legal protections does the royal family have? – https://theconversation.com/why-has-andrew-mountbatten-windsor-been-arrested-and-what-legal-protections-does-the-royal-family-have-276466

¿Podría el arresto del expríncipe Andrés acabar con la monarquía británica?

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Jo Coghlan, Associate Professor, Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, University of New England

Cuando un miembro de la realeza es objeto de escrutinio, puede parecer una ruptura con la tradición. Sin embargo, a lo largo de los siglos, los miembros de la realeza británica han sido objeto de sospechas en repetidas ocasiones. Lo que hace que la detención de Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor sea tan llamativa es que hay que remontarse al siglo XVII para encontrar algo comparable.

La realeza no es ajena a los escándalos, pero las acusaciones de infringir la ley son otra cosa muy distinta. La caída en desgracia del expríncipe Andrés tendrá enormes repercusiones para la realeza británica y también nos da una idea de cómo ha cambiado el trato a la realeza desde la muerte de la reina Isabel.

Cuando cayó la corona

Esta no es la primera vez que la realeza británica se ha visto envuelta en problemas legales. En 1483, Ricardo III se vio involucrado en la desaparición de sus dos sobrinos, los llamados príncipes de la Torre. Ambos príncipes eran herederos legítimos y, por lo tanto, una amenaza directa para el derecho de Ricardo al trono. Nunca fue juzgado en un tribunal, y los historiadores aún debaten las pruebas.

El enfrentamiento más dramático entre la monarquía y la ley se produjo con Carlos I, acusado de traición durante la guerra civil inglesa. Fue arrestado en 1649, juzgado y ejecutado públicamente. Este acto conmocionó a Europa y destrozó la creencia de que la realeza estaba por encima de la ley.

Como consecuencia, Inglaterra abolió la monarquía y se convirtió en una república bajo el mandato de Oliver Cromwell. Así pues, la última vez que un miembro de la familia real fue arrestado y juzgado, la propia corona cayó.

Ese precedente es importante porque subraya lo poco frecuentes que son los arrestos de miembros de la realeza. Durante más de tres siglos, la monarquía ha evitado ese espectáculo. El hecho de que la detención de Andrew obligue a compararlo con Carlos I revela lo excepcional que es este momento.

La reputación como estrategia real

En el siglo XIX, la monarquía sobrevivió menos por la fuerza y más por su reputación. Bajo el reinado de la reina Victoria (1837-1901), la corona cultivó la virtud doméstica y la seriedad moral como escudo contra la inestabilidad. La respetabilidad se convirtió en una defensa estratégica contra el escándalo.

Sin embargo, la fama y el poder conducen inevitablemente a un gran interés público, y los escándalos se abrieron paso en la cultura impresa y, más tarde, en los medios de comunicación de masas. El príncipe Alberto Víctor, nieto de la reina Victoria, fue acusado de ser Jack el Destripador. Es una afirmación que los historiadores han rechazado en gran medida como teoría conspirativa, pero que persiste porque refleja los temores sobre los encubrimientos de la monarquía.

Jacobo II fue destronado en 1688 durante la Revolución Gloriosa en medio de acusaciones de que socavaba las leyes protestantes y promovía a funcionarios católicos. Su aparente abuso de poder, más que un único delito perseguible, le costó el trono.

En el siglo XX, Eduardo VIII generó un tipo diferente de inquietud. Tras su abdicación en 1936, surgieron pruebas de su simpatía hacia la Alemania nazi, seguidas de una reunión con Adolf Hitler en Alemania en 1937. Aunque no hubo ningún proceso judicial, esto causó un grave daño a la reputación y la confianza pública de Eduardo.

El colapso de la deferencia

Durante gran parte del siglo XX, la monarquía funcionó dentro de una cultura de respeto. La prensa se abstuvo de informar sobre la vida privada de la realeza y las indiscreciones se gestionaban discretamente. Ese acuerdo aislaba a la familia real de una exposición mediática continuada. Sin embargo, el panorama comenzó a cambiar tras una serie de escándalos en la década de 1990. Esto llevó finalmente a Isabel II a calificar 1992 como su annus horribilis.

El auge del periodismo sensacionalista erosionó las antiguas fronteras, y los medios digitales las disolvieron por completo. El silencio ahora intensifica las sospechas en lugar de calmarlas, como fue el caso del silencio real sobre la salud de la Princesa de Gales a principios de 2024, lo que obligó a que hiciera pública su lucha contra el cáncer.

Influencia, acceso y percepción

Incluso antes de su detención, la percepción sobre el expríncipe Andrés era negativa.

El arresto se produce en este cambio de opinión. Durante su mandato como representante especial del Reino Unido para el comercio y la inversión internacionales, cultivó relaciones con líderes políticos y figuras empresariales adineradas de todo Oriente Medio y Asia Central. Los críticos cuestionaron si había difuminado la línea entre la promoción comercial oficial y las redes privadas.

El episodio de 2010 “cash for access” (dinero por acceso) en el que se vio involucrada la esposa de Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Sarah Ferguson, profundizó esa percepción. Sarah fue filmada ofreciendo acceso a Andrés a cambio de un pago sustancial. Aunque ella se disculpó y el expríncipe negó su participación, la imagen de manejos monetarios en el entorno de la corona fue corrosiva.

En 2021, una investigación encubierta sugirió que el príncipe Michael de Kent, primo de la reina, estaba dispuesto a utilizar su estatus real para ayudar a una empresa ficticia a cambio de una remuneración. Él negó haber actuado mal, pero el daño ya estaba hecho.

Una marca sin aislamiento

Bajo el reinado de Isabel II, la longevidad confería autoridad y estabilidad, lo que a menudo suavizaba los escándalos. Bajo el reinado de Carlos II, la institución parece más expuesta. La detención del expríncipe perturba y expone a la familia real a un daño reputacional. Aunque posteriormente fue puesto en libertad, el escándalo aún tiene un largo recorrido.

Carlos es un monarca constitucional. No puede interferir en las investigaciones policiales ni en las decisiones de la fiscalía sin provocar una crisis constitucional. Su autoridad es simbólica más que ejecutiva.

Pero puede alejar aún más de la vida pública al círculo íntimo de Andrés, incluidas sus hijas. Ya le ha despojado de sus títulos reales y le ha dicho que abandone su hogar, Royal Lodge.

Sin embargo, incluso eso tiene sus límites. El poder de Carlos ahora se basa menos en el control que en la credibilidad. En una sociedad permanentemente vigilante, los juicios no se dictan en privado, sino a la vista de todos.

El precedente que perdura

La última vez que se detuvo a un monarca reinante, Inglaterra abolió la monarquía y se convirtió en una república. El eco histórico es imposible de ignorar: nos recuerda que cuando la corona se ve envuelta en un proceso penal, las consecuencias trascienden al individuo.

El arresto de Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor subraya lo frágil que puede ser esa confianza y lo decisivamente que la moldea el tribunal que realmente importa, el de la opinión pública. Aunque el expríncipe no es el rey, el escándalo podría haberse suavizado si su hermano Carlos hubiera actuado con más decisión y rapidez para apartarlo de los círculos más cercanos a la monarquía.

Los escándalos reales merman el sentido de misterio que durante mucho tiempo ha protegido a la corona. La monarquía sobrevive no porque tenga poder político real, sino porque representa estabilidad, dignidad y algo ligeramente alejado de la vida cotidiana.

Cuando los miembros de la realeza se ven envueltos en un escándalo, esa sensación de distancia se desvanece y la institución puede empezar a parecer más frágil que intocable.

The Conversation

Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.

ref. ¿Podría el arresto del expríncipe Andrés acabar con la monarquía británica? – https://theconversation.com/podria-el-arresto-del-exprincipe-andres-acabar-con-la-monarquia-britanica-276536

SpaceX rocket left behind a plume of chemical pollution as it burnt up in the atmosphere

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Robyn Schofield, Professor and Associate Dean (Environment and Sustainability in Faculty of Science), The University of Melbourne

A 30-second exposure taken from Collm, Saxony, showing a Falcon 9 upper stage re-entering the atmosphere above Berlin, Germany, on 19 February 2025. Gerd Baumgarten

Space junk returning to the Earth is introducing metal pollution to the pristine upper atmosphere as it burns up on re-entry, a new study has found.

Published today in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, the study was led by Robin Wing from the Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Germany. Using highly sensitive lasers, he and his team of international researchers observed a plume of lithium pollution, tracking it back to the uncontrolled re-entry of a discarded Space X Falcon 9 rocket upper stage.

This is the first observational evidence that re-entering space debris leaves a detectable, human-caused chemical fingerprint in the upper atmosphere. This was also the first time a pollutant plume from a specific space junk re-entry event has been monitored from the ground.

With many more satellite launches planned for the future, this event won’t be the last. It highlights the urgent need for governments and the space industry to tackle this problem before it gets out of hand.

Three green laser beams, with the Milky Way in the background.
Researchers used highly sensitive lasers at the Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics to detect pollution caused by space debris.
Eframir Franco-Diaz

A part of the atmosphere we barely understand

The region that comprises the upper stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere (around 80 to 120 kilometres above Earth) is one of the least studied parts of the Earth system. It’s too high for balloons, too low for satellites, and too harsh for aircraft.

Yet this region is crucial for radio and GPS communications, upper atmospheric weather patterns, and stratospheric ozone.

The upper atmosphere is largely unpolluted by humans. But the new space age is injecting growing quantities of metals and other pollutants from satellites, rocket bodies and space debris.

The impact this will have on the stratospheric ozone layer, which is crucial to protecting life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation, is as yet unquantified. But early findings are cause for concern.

For example, research from 2024 suggests aluminium and chlorine emissions related to rocket launches and re-entries may slow the ozone layer’s recovery.

Soot from rocket launches is also likely to cause warming in the upper atmosphere.

Finding lithium with lasers

For the new study, the researchers used a highly sensitive laser-based sensor to detect the fluorescence of trace metals in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This is not an off-the-shelf and readily available observation system, but it could be.

On February 20 2025, they captured a clear, sudden enhancement in lithium ions from lithium batteries and human-made metal casings used in satellites. These are quite distinct from natural meteor material.

Using atmospheric trajectory modelling, they traced the timing and altitude of the lithium plume directly to the re-entry path of a discarded Falcon 9 rocket stage as it burnt up through the lower thermosphere into the mesosphere over the Atlantic Ocean, west of Ireland.

Blue and green lasers shining out of the roof of a large building.
Lasers in operation at the Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics.
Danny Gohlke

A rapidly escalating problem

The number of satellites in orbit has exploded from a few thousand a couple years ago to roughly 14,000 right now, driven largely by megaconstellations.

There are many more satellites planned. In fact, SpaceX has applied to launch a megaconstellation of up to one million satellites to power data centres in space. Every one of these satellites will eventually re-enter the atmosphere. So too will the rockets that launch them.

Current estimates suggest that by 2030, several tonnes of spacecraft material will burn up in the upper atmosphere every single day.

So far, there is no regulatory framework for these emissions, few monitoring options and limited scientific understanding of the likely impacts.

The new lithium detection demonstrates that pollutants from re-entry are measurable and can be traced back to individual re-entry events. This is an important step when it comes to holding companies involved in space accountable.

International regulatory bodies need to be set up to liaise with governments and scientists to establish monitoring networks and instruments to track changes to our atmosphere from this emerging threat.

As the space industry skyrockets, our efforts to understand, monitor and regulate upper-atmospheric emissions must keep pace.

The Conversation

Robyn Schofield receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund, the Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program and Murujuga Rock Art Monitoring Program. She is an ACCESS-NRI board member, an expert advisory group member of The Safer Air Project, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society expert chair of atmospheric and oceanographic composition and an Associate Investigator of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century. From 2016-2024 she was also an elected member of the International Ozone Commission.

Robert George Ryan receives funding from the Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program and Murujuga Rock Art Monitoring Program. He has also received funding from the European Research Council to research upper tropospheric chemistry. He is an early career researcher member of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS).

ref. SpaceX rocket left behind a plume of chemical pollution as it burnt up in the atmosphere – https://theconversation.com/spacex-rocket-left-behind-a-plume-of-chemical-pollution-as-it-burnt-up-in-the-atmosphere-276266

Russia tested NATO’s airspace 18 times in 2025 alone – a 200% surge that signals a dangerous shift

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Frederic Lemieux, Professor of the Practice and Faculty Director of the Master’s in Applied Intelligence, Georgetown University

Police inspect damage to a house struck by debris from a shot down Russian drone in the village of Wyryki-Wola, eastern Poland, on Sept. 10, 2025. Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images

Russian aircraft, drones and missiles have violated NATO airspace dozens of times since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

Individually, many of these incidents appear minor: a drone crash here, a brief fighter incursion there, a missile discovered only after the fact.

But taken together, I believe the numbers tell a far more troubling story.

To get a full picture of the scale of violations, I conducted a systematic review of Russian airspace violations against NATO members from 2022 through the end of 2025.

It reveals not just an increase but a sharp acceleration accompanied by rising severity and widening geographic scope. In 2025 alone, NATO members recorded 18 confirmed Russian airspace violations – three times as many as in 2024 and more than half of all incidents recorded over the four-year period. This was not a gradual escalation; it was a dramatic change.

Picking up pace

I identified airspace violations through a systematic review of international news media coverage, corroborated with official NATO press releases and cross-validated against operational assessments and geospatial reporting from the Institute for the Study of War. Included were violations of airspace by drones heavily suspected to be Russian but that could not be 100% confirmed.

Between 2022 and 2024, the annual number of violations rose steadily but modestly. There were four incidents in 2022, five in 2023 and six in 2024.

That corresponds to year-on-year increases of roughly 25% and 20%. In 2025, the count jumped from six to 18, a 200% increase in a single year. And that pace has continued into 2026 – as of Feb. 18 there have been at least two violations of NATO airspace by Russia.

Such a surge is statistically and strategically significant. It strongly suggests that Russian airspace violations are no longer episodic spillovers from the war in Ukraine, but part of a sustained pattern of pressure directed at NATO itself.

The character of these incidents has also changed. In 2022, all four violations were what I classify as low-intensity events: brief incursions into Swedish airspace by Russian fighters, the crash of an Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone in Romania and the later discovery of a Russian cruise missile in Poland. These incidents were serious but short-lived and geographically limited.

By 2023, violations had become more repetitive. Romania alone experienced multiple drone incursions and debris discoveries over several months, often triggering fighter scrambles. All five incidents that year fell into a midrange severity category: more persistent than before but still largely confined to border regions.

The transition toward higher-intensity incursions became clearer in 2024. Of the six violations that year, half involved high-severity characteristics such as deeper penetration of a NATO country or broader geographic exposure.

A Russian cruise missile crossed into Polish airspace, drones entered Romania on multiple consecutive nights, and a Russian drone crashed well inside Latvian territory. These incidents expanded both the depth and the geographic footprint of violations.

Then came 2025. Of the 18 violations recorded that year, a clear majority qualify as high-severity events. These include a Russian drone that penetrated nearly 60 miles (100 kilometers) into Polish territory before crashing near Osiny without prior radar detection; a drone that remained inside Romanian airspace for approximately four hours, crossing multiple counties before crashing in Vaslui; and a massive 21-drone swarm over Poland on Sept. 9-10 that forced the closure of major civilian airports in Warsaw, Rzeszów and Lublin.

Manned aircraft also returned in force. Russian MiG-31 interceptors flew over Estonia for about 12 minutes with transponders – onboard devices that automatically respond to radar signals by transmitting an aircraft’s identity and altitude, enabling air traffic control and air defense systems to track it – switched off. In October, a Russian Su-30 fighter accompanied by an Il-78 refueling tanker violated Lithuanian airspace – an unmistakable signal of endurance and deliberate mission planning.

In December, suspected Russian drones were shot down and later recovered in Turkey on multiple dates, indicating a persistent provocation rather than a one-off incursion.

Perhaps most strikingly, Western Europe was seemingly no longer exempt. On Dec. 4, 2025, five unidentified drones flew over France’s Île Longue naval base, home to the country’s nuclear ballistic missile submarines. French personnel reportedly fired at the suspected Russian drones.

Just weeks later, on Christmas Day, Polish fighters intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea.

Grey-zone tactics

Severity and frequency are not the only dimensions that changed. Geographical reach has, too.

In 2022, Russian violations affected three NATO members. By 2024, that number had grown to four. In 2025, it expanded to six: Romania, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Turkey and France.

Pressure was applied simultaneously in the Black Sea region, the Baltic states and Western Europe.

This widening scope matters because it undermines the idea that these incidents are localized accidents. Instead, they resemble a distributed pattern of Russia probing across NATO’s eastern and southern flanks and into its strategic core.

NATO’s political response reflects this shift. For the first time since the war began, members invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the mechanism for collective consultation when a member feels its security is threatened.

Poland did so after the September 2025 drone swarm, and Estonia followed after the MiG-31 incursion later that month. Although only two of the 18 incidents triggered Article 4, their timing is revealing: No such invocations occurred in the previous three years combined.

From a strategic standpoint, the danger lies less in any single violation than in their cumulative effect. Airspace incursions sit in a grey zone between peace and open conflict. They impose operational and psychological costs, test air defense systems and provide valuable intelligence on NATO’s detection thresholds and response times, all while staying below the legal threshold of armed attack.

Testing NATO’s resolve

The data from 2025 and early 2026 show that this grey-zone activity has intensified dramatically. A threefold increase in one year, coupled with a shift toward deeper, longer and more disruptive incidents across multiple theaters, points to a deliberate campaign rather than accidental spillover.

For NATO, the implication is clear. Monitoring individual incidents is no longer sufficient. What now matters is the rate of acceleration, the severity profile and the geographic dispersion of violations.

If current trends persist as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the alliance’s greatest challenge may not be responding to a single dramatic breach but managing the mounting pressure created by many smaller ones – each calibrated to test resolve without triggering open conflict.

The Conversation

Frederic Lemieux does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Russia tested NATO’s airspace 18 times in 2025 alone – a 200% surge that signals a dangerous shift – https://theconversation.com/russia-tested-natos-airspace-18-times-in-2025-alone-a-200-surge-that-signals-a-dangerous-shift-273318

Why has Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor been arrested, and what legal protections do the royal family have?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Francesca Jackson, PhD candidate, Lancaster Law School, Lancaster University

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office. The arrest comes after the US government released files that appeared to indicate he had shared official information with financier and convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein while serving as a trade envoy for the UK. But the police have not given details of exactly what they are investigating.

It is important to be clear that the arrest is not related to accusations of sexual assault or misconduct. In 2022, Mountbatten-Windsor reached a settlement with the late Virginia Giuffre for an undisclosed sum that did not include an admission of liability.

Being named in the Epstein files is not an indication of misconduct. Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any wrongdoing in his association with Epstein and and has previously rejected any suggestion he used his time as trade envoy to further his own interests.

What was Mountbatten-Windsor’s official role and why did he lose it?

In 2001, Tony Blair’s government made the then-prince the UK’s special representative for trade and investment. According to the government at the time, his remit was to “promote UK business internationally, market the UK to potential inward investors, and build relationships in support of UK business interests”. He did not receive a salary, but he did go on hundreds of trips to promote British businesses.

Members of the royal family are often deployed by the government on international missions to promote trade. When negotiating with other countries, particularly those which are also monarchies, sending a prominent figure like a royal may help seal the deal. Indeed, the then-government claimed that the former Duke of York’s “unique position gives him unrivalled access to members of royal families, heads of state, government ministers and chief executives of companies”.

It is not unusual for members of the royal family to be deployed by the government for diplomatic missions. Royals often host incoming state visits and lead similar visits abroad, and can be deployed to lead delegations on more specific missions.

However, Mountbatten-Windsor had an official role as trade envoy. He stepped down from this role in 2011 following reports about his friendship with Epstein, who was convicted of sex offences in 2011.




Read more:
What exactly is misconduct in public office and could Peter Mandelson be convicted?


Are royals protected from prosecution?

The monarch is protected by sovereign immunity, a wide-ranging constitutional principle exempting him from all criminal and civil liability. According to the leading 19th century constitutionalist Alfred Dicey, the monarch could not even be prosecuted for “shooting the Prime Minister through the head”. The Prince of Wales also enjoys immunity as Duke of Cornwall, which protects him from punishment for breaking a range of laws.

The State Immunity Act 1978, which confers immunity on the head of state, also extends to “members of the family forming part of the household”. However, this phrase has been interpreted narrowly to apply to a very tight circle of people and does not appear to apply to the monarch’s children in general. For example, in 2002 Princess Anne was prosecuted (though not arrested) for failing to control her dogs in Windsor Great Park after they bit two children.

Nevertheless, there has often been a perception that members of the royal family are held to a different standard when it comes to the law. In 2016 Thames Valley Police were criticised by anti-monarchy groups for not prosecuting the then-prince after newspaper reports alleged he had driven his car through the gates of Windsor Great Park. In 2019 the Crown Prosecution Service declined to prosecute Prince Philip for causing a car crash which injured two people.

The monarch also cannot be compelled to give evidence in court. For example, prosecutors were unable to summon the late queen to give evidence in the trial of Princess Diana’s former butler, who was accused of stealing her jewellery.

In response to Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest, the king said: “What now follows is the full, fair and proper process by which this issue is investigated in the appropriate manner and by the appropriate authorities. In this, as I have said before, they have our full and wholehearted support and co-operation. Let me state clearly: the law must take its course.”

When was the last time a royal was arrested?

You have to go back quite a long way to find the last time that a member of the British royal family was arrested. This was during the English civil war, when Charles I was taken prisoner for treason before being found guilty and ultimately executed in 1649.

A number of royals, including Princess Anne, have committed driving-related offences, including speeding. But this arrest makes Mountbatten-Windsor the first member of the royal family to be arrested in modern times, though it should be noted that he is no longer a royal – he was stripped of all his official titles in October 2025 as his friendship with Epstein came under even more scrutiny.

What limits do police have on investigating royal estates?

Sovereign immunity also prevents police from entering private royal estates to investigate alleged crimes without permission. This can, theoretically, protect members of the royal family from arrest and prosecution. The Cultural Property (Armed Conflicts) Act 2017 also bans police from searching royal estates for stolen or looted artefacts.

In 2007, two hen harriers were illegally shot at Sandringham estate. However, Norfolk Police first needed to ask Sandringham officials for permission to enter the estate, by which time the dead birds’ bodies had been removed. Police questioned Prince Harry, but did not bring charges.

Other incidents have allegedly led to Sandringham being accused of becoming a wildlife crime hotspot, with at least 18 reported cases of suspected wildlife offences taking place between 2003-23 – yet only one resulting in prosecution.

Another longstanding legal precedent is that no one may be arrested in the presence of the monarch or within the precincts of a royal palace. It was thought that this rule could protect other members of the royal family and royal employees. However, Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest at Sandringham suggests that this antiquated principle may no longer hold true today.

The Conversation

Francesca Jackson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why has Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor been arrested, and what legal protections do the royal family have? – https://theconversation.com/why-has-andrew-mountbatten-windsor-been-arrested-and-what-legal-protections-do-the-royal-family-have-276466

‘It’s chronic disease, stupid!’ The central challenge facing health care

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By George A Heckman, Schlegel Research Chair in Geriatric Medicine, Associate Professor, University of Waterloo

The economy, stupid!” is an aphorism coined by James Carvill during Bill Clinton’s 1992 U.S. presidential campaign to keep workers focused on a key message. It has since been adapted countless times to refocus debates over challenging situations, and it can be applied to the central challenge facing health care: our ongoing failure to address the needs of people with chronic conditions. “It’s chronic disease, stupid!”

As a geriatrician with a research interest in models of care, and a cardiologist who studies rehabilitation and proactive disease management, we are immersed in this issue as both physicians and researchers.

A chronic condition is a health problem — physical, mental, developmental or age-related — that usually requires lifelong care, often causes disability, and sometimes shortens life expectancy. Symptoms may not be apparent for years, develop insidiously or arise abruptly. Chronic conditions are often unstable, and hospitalization may be required when symptoms are allowed to deteriorate significantly.

In contrast, acute conditions develop suddenly and usually resolve, such as infections, though some, such as a COVID-19 infection, may lead to chronic symptoms.

This distinction matters. Our health-care system was designed last century primarily to care for acute conditions. Back then, the population burden of chronic disease was low because treatments and survival were limited.

Advances in medical science have since resulted in better care for people with acute or chronic conditions, leading to better quality of life, delayed disability and greater life expectancy. Today, people with heart and lung disease, psychiatric and neurological conditions, and even some advanced cancers live far longer than their predecessors did only a generation ago.

Living longer comes at a cost. Age is a major risk factor for the development of chronic conditions. A person surviving a heart attack today may develop, years later, depression, heart failure and dementia. The acquisition of multiple chronic conditions is called multimorbidity.

The accumulation with age of additional deficits across all organ systems leads to frailty, and which renders affected individuals more vulnerable: a simple cold, easily withstood by a young person, can lead to pneumonia and hospitalization in a frail older person. Multimorbidity and frailty often lead to disability.

People living with complex chronic conditions are poorly served by our health-care system. Informal caregivers, aging spouses, friends or children, cannot fully compensate for health-care system gaps before they are overwhelmed by the severe and complex needs of their loved ones. The only option often remaining is best summarized by the typical message heard on physician phone lines: “If this is a medical emergency, hang up and call 9-1-1 or go to the nearest emergency department.”

The mismatch between health care designed for acute illness and the needs of patients with chronic conditions lies at the root of why hospitals are perpetually overflowing. Health care must be reconfigured to meet the needs, characteristics and health trajectories of people with chronic conditions.

Team-based primary care

People with chronic conditions need access to team-based primary care. Team composition and skills must reflect the needs of these people, and may include advanced practice nurses, clinical pharmacists, nurses, social workers, therapists or mental health workers, in addition to a primary care provider.

Highly-functioning teams have no professional hierarchies, promote interprofessional respect, communication and mutual accountability, allow all providers to exercise their full scope of practice, and place patients and caregivers first. Consultants, such as geriatricians, can be valuable team members, as shared and collaborative care provides opportunities for capacity-building, and greater quality and efficiency of care.

Having access to a team does not imply that a patient requires continuous care: the team’s role is to develop and implement a plan for patients to maintain stable and optimal health. For many, the intensity of engagement with the team will change over time.

For example, following a myocardial infarction, patients with coronary artery disease may require surgeries, risk factor modification with pharmaceuticals, diet and physical rehabilitation.

However, over time, their health will recover, they will resume more vigorous activity, and their reliance on the team will ebb to only need the expertise of their family doctor and their consultant. If new symptoms arise, the proactive and prepared team will be able to recognize these and take timely action to prevent complications and avoid hospitalization.

In other words, the degree of support needed from a team should be commensurate with, and responsive to, patient needs and the risk for adverse outcomes at a particular moment. Because the needs of patients with chronic conditions fluctuate, primary care must switch from a reactive stance to one characterized by team-based anticipatory surveillance and guidance.

Anticipating needs

Chronic conditions are predictably unpredictable. Most people hospitalized with heart failure had signs and symptoms weeks before calling 9-1-1. Suicide attempt survivors may have had mood symptoms for months. Most people with osteoporotic hip fractures had prior falls or fractures. These early warning signs should be detectable by proactive teams, which can then intervene quickly to prevent further deterioration.

Prevention remains important, even among people with chronic conditions. Astonishingly, fewer than half of Canadians who sustained a hip fracture are adequately treated for osteoporosis. Self-care coaching and case management from care teams can improve health and prevent hospitalizations of people with chronic conditions.

Self-care coaching helps patients and informal caregivers better understand how to care for chronic conditions, including recognizing early signs of deterioration, taking steps to stabilize their health and, if needed, seeking timely attention from their care team. As patients and caregivers master these skills, health improves, the risk of hospitalization and other poor outcomes decreases, and their reliance on their care team lessens.

Case management provides additional and tailored support and oversight to patients with the most complex needs.

Both modalities can be deployed interchangeably to support a patient and informal caregiver as their health fluctuates, including at the end of life. Yet, despite their demonstrated effectiveness, these availability of these interventions for complex conditions remains limited in primary care.

Integrating the health system into primary care

Even the most high-performing teams require external support from other consultants or programs, rehabilitation and exercise, home care, community paramedicine or other community support services. Typically, family physicians complete referral forms for these services, and accepted patients are placed on waiting lists. Communication between primary care and other providers is generally by fax or by letter, often with limited information and little opportunity for discussion.

Health system integration is a system-wide process towards seamless continuity of care through collaboration and co-ordination of providers. Evidence suggests that integrated care improves patient outcomes and reduces reliance on acute care.

In addition to interprofessional teams, integration requires an electronic standardized clinical information strategy to facilitate effective communication between providers and facilitate shared learning and quality improvement. Importantly, public investments are required to support the shared governance, administrative and scientifically robust electronic health record infrastructures for successful integration.

It’s still the economy, stupid!

A well-integrated interprofessional health-care system, rooted in primary care and configured to support patients with chronic conditions and their informal caregivers, has the potential to improve health outcomes, curb health-care spending and reduce reliance on hospital care.

However, this measure alone is insufficient to curb the population burden of chronic conditions, for which important root causes are socioeconomic: childhood poverty and undernutrition, low educational attainment and experience, food insecurity and precarious housing.

Population health and a healthy economy are inextricably linked. Government policies that fail to meaningfully support public health and social safety nets ultimately drive higher chronic disease rates and greater downstream health-care costs.

When it comes to health care and chronic conditions, Carvill’s aphorism still applies.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘It’s chronic disease, stupid!’ The central challenge facing health care – https://theconversation.com/its-chronic-disease-stupid-the-central-challenge-facing-health-care-275770

Nihilistic violent extremist networks recruit vulnerable people — and our youth need support

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kawser Ahmed, Adjunct Professor, Natural Resource Institute (NRI), University of Manitoba

As the nation mourns after Canada’s deadliest school shooting in modern history, a question looms for people both close to the events and further away: Why? As with other mass shootings, this painful question is complex and difficult to answer.




Read more:
Why mass shootings can’t be reduced to a mental illness diagnosis


As reported by the New York Times, an investigation into the shooter’s online life “offers a chronicle of a young person’s gradual descent into mental health crises and radicalization into extreme violence.”

As a researcher focused on preventing radicalization to violence and extremism — and who recently created a public resource about countering radicalization to violence in Manitoba schools — I believe a violent extremism trend analysis could be relevant towards potentially helping to prevent such tragedies through addressing potential education or policy gaps.

Schools navigate risks, threats

School shooting incidents are rare in Canada in comparison to the United States. Among these, the 1989 École Polytechnique Montréal massacre and the 2016 La Loche, Sask., high school attack are notable.

CNN reports that in the U.S., after school closures in 2020 led to a drop in gun violence at schools, recent years saw an increase in school shootings, with 2021 through 2024 each setting records not seen since at least 2008.

Incidents like the Tumbler Ridge shooting can have ripple effects in the form of threats, as was seen this past week in Manitoba.

Nihilist violent extremists

In making sense of senseless mass murder in Tumbler Ridge, trends shows that youth radicalization to violent extremism is both real and dangerous. A growing trend of violence for its own sake, driven by hate among young people, is rapidly re-shaping traditional extremism studies.

For example, experts concerned with violent extremism like Marc-André Argentino point towards a deeper understanding of nihilist violent extremists, which refers to “those on the fringe actively encouraging, promoting, glorifying or engaging in serious acts of violence for the sake of violence and chaos in and of itself, the consequences of which have no clear end state.”

Argentino has also cautioned about the Com Network — a large international online community that is linked to a wide range of criminal activity, including real-world violence. According to his research, between 2020 and 2025, there were 194 arrests tied to the network across 29 countries, and those cases are associated with 5,040 people harmed, victimized or killed. The average age of those arrested is 20.4, but both perpetrators and victims are trending younger, with the youngest arrested perpetrator at 11 and the youngest known victim at eight.

Provoking harm

Such violence does not occur in a vacuum. In a world of instant connectivity through various encrypted communication platforms or channels, young people can inadvertently fall victim to the promotion of mass violence, and some eventually turn into grooming agents influencing others. Findings indicate that nihilistic violence is more prevalent among teenagers than adults.

One study examining the rise of nihilistic violence cited an incident of an attack in Sweden, and concluded that an increasing trend of youth radicalization via decentralized online extremist networks gamifies violence and leverages digital anonymity to provoke real-world harm.

Varied ways youth can be drawn into violence

In contrast to conventional extremist organizations characterized by hierarchical structures and explicit agendas, nihilistic violent groups are decentralized, leaderless and digitally highly innovative. They utilize social engineering strategies, anonymity and visual propaganda (often referred to as “esthetics of violence”) to rapidly radicalize individuals.

A primary concern is their emphasis on disenchanted youth, whom they attract through sentiments of alienation, dissatisfaction and yearning for acknowledgement.

Their propaganda re-contextualizes violence as social capital: the more brutal and dramatic an act, the more esteemed the perpetrator becomes within the group. In the process of radicalization, people do not need a “guru,” and there is no need for traditional indoctrination pipelines with this network approach.

Self-radicalization can happen fast and with little to no help from a recruiter. Radicalization into committing violence can happen by reading digital content, participating in forums and finally acting without any direct organizational oversight.

Gun pride normalizes gun culture, and this can inadvertently lead an extremist recruiter to a young person. Online environments in the age of AI are something like the wild West, and currently, only major tech platforms take some responsibilities to moderate content (often when something goes wrong).




Read more:
Big Tech is overselling AI as the solution to online extremism


Many factors can contribute to youth’s vulnerability to radicalization to violence, and no single profile exists of who is at risk. Factors can include low self-esteem, physical or emotional abuse, socio-economic circumstances, bullying or ostracization by peers, or political or religious affiliations.

Challenges reporting concerns

In many cases of extremist violence, a perpetrator’s warning signs are only seen in retrospect, and are understood to have been ignored due to a lack of education or training and policy support.

Combined with this are omnipresent uncommitted attitudes that exists at various levels within schools. Often, people are unsure where to report their concerns or who will be ultimately responsible for responding to them.

Almost all attacks carried out by individuals with no criminal records have left trails of indications of grievance, frustration and hopelessness that needed to be picked up early and monitored seriously.

A couple of strong cross-Canada examples for responding to community concern about potential extremism and violence are Québec’s Centre for the Prevention of Radicalization to Leading to Violence and Alberta’s Organization for the Prevention of Violence. Both offer substantive community resources, programs or support services.

Multi-stakeholder approaches needed

While security specialists argue that “one size fits all” approaches aren’t applicable to deal with context-sensitive attacks like the Tumbler Ridge, acknowledging that there are people and social networks promoting nihilistic violent extremism is one essential step for intervention.

A security-only approach cannot address such threats — a co-ordinated, multi-stakeholder approach is needed.

Educators play an important role in picking up behavioural indicators, yet they need to be supported by a policy on intervention in conjunction with parents or guardians. But policies must also address youth and young people who have dropped out of education, or who aren’t enrolled.

It might seem to be an impossible task, however, multiple stakeholders such as researchers, policymakers, educators, community leaders, public health and government officials could be participating actively in carefully designed intervention strategies.

Strategies should prioritize a grievance-oriented and trauma-informed methodology to address teen distress, emphasizing exit from the online world while reducing exclusion and stigma.

Ultimately, we must recognize that our youth need assistance. Educators, parents or guardians and our broader communities are pivotal in safeguarding them from nihilistic violent extremist recruiters.

The Conversation

Kawser Ahmed has implemented Extremism and Radicalization to Violence Prevention in Manitoba (ERIM) – a Public Safety, Canada funded project and currently received a grant from Canadian Network for Research on Security Extremism and Society (CANSES) for further research.

ref. Nihilistic violent extremist networks recruit vulnerable people — and our youth need support – https://theconversation.com/nihilistic-violent-extremist-networks-recruit-vulnerable-people-and-our-youth-need-support-275883

Cuando el virreinato del Perú inventó la ingeniería costera americana

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Juan J. Muñoz, Profesor de Ingeniería Costera, Universidad de Cádiz

Muelle del Callao, según mapa del siglo XVII. Archivo General de Indias.

A comienzos del siglo XVIII, el puerto del Callao –la puerta marítima del virreinato del Perú– vivía sitiado por el mar. Las tormentas, los terremotos y los tsunamis golpeaban sin descanso las murallas que protegían el principal punto de salida del oro y la plata rumbo a España.

Lo que pocos saben es que allí, hace 300 años, se ensayó por primera vez en América una regeneración de playas, una idea que hoy sigue siendo una herramienta fundamental de la ingeniería costera moderna.

El virreinato del Perú en el mapa de la América del Sur hecho por el teniente coronel del ejército español, capitán primero del cuerpo de Ingenieros y geógrafo, Agustín Ibáñez y Bojons en 1800.
Biblioteca Nacional de España

Un puerto vital y vulnerable

El Callao no era un puerto cualquiera: de él dependía buena parte del comercio entre Sudamérica y Europa. Los metales preciosos que llegaban desde Potosí y el Alto Perú se almacenaban en sus depósitos antes de embarcar hacia Panamá y, luego, a La Habana, donde se organizaba la travesía final hacia la península ibérica. La seguridad de estas operaciones era una prioridad estratégica para la Corona española.

En este contexto, hacia finales del siglo XVII, la construcción de un muelle para facilitar el embarque alteró el equilibrio natural de las corrientes y del transporte de arena. Las arenas se acumulaban en un lado del muelle, pero el otro comenzó a erosionarse con rapidez. En pocas décadas, el mar había socavado los cimientos de las murallas y provocado el derrumbe de parte de la fortificación.

Ingenieros del imperio frente al mar

La respuesta llegó de la mano de los ingenieros militares del virreinato. Como recuerda el ingeniero e historiador Ignacio González Tascón (1947–2006) en su libro Ingeniería española en ultramar (CEHOPU, 1992), aquellos técnicos eran auténticos pioneros: dominaban la geometría, la hidráulica y la construcción de obras marítimas con un nivel de precisión asombroso para su época. González Tascón dedicó su vida a rescatar el legado de la ingeniería española en ultramar y su trabajo sigue siendo una referencia esencial para comprender aquel conocimiento técnico adelantado a su tiempo.

Plano una parte del Callao: espigones.
Archivo General de Indias.

El primer intento de reconstrucción lo dirigió el capitán Nicolás Rodríguez, que, para aislar la zona de trabajo del mar, propuso una obra de tablestacado –estructura de contención de suelos y defensa de costas formada por la unión continua de elementos prefabricados (tablestacas), hincados verticalmente en el terreno–. Pero el fondo arenoso filtraba el agua con rapidez y la solución resultaba costosa y poco fiable.

Entonces, intervino el cosmógrafo real Pedro de Peralta Barnuevo (1663-1743), una de las mentes científicas más brillantes del Perú colonial y rector de la Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos en Lima, la más antigua de América.

De Peralta planteó una idea radical: construir diques perpendiculares a la costa –lo que hoy llamamos espigones o “groins”– que interrumpieran la corriente litoral y provocaran la acumulación de arena. Así, se formaría una playa artificial frente a la muralla, creando una base seca y estable sobre la que trabajar. Fue, en esencia, la primera regeneración de playas documentada del continente americano.

La playa que salvó una muralla

El proyecto comenzó en 1724. Los ingenieros levantaron una serie de espigones de madera y piedra, dispuestos a intervalos regulares, con una proporción entre longitud y separación similar a la de los campos de espigones modernos. Entre ellos, colocaron hileras de gaviones –caja de forma prismática rectangular, rellena de piedra o tierra– para retener el sedimento. En pocos años, las arenas se acumularon en el lado occidental, formando una franja de playa que amortiguaba el impacto de las olas.

Los planos conservados en el Archivo General de Indias muestran con detalle la obra terminada: ocho estructuras alineadas frente a la muralla marítima y una nueva línea de costa protegida. El sistema funcionó. Por primera vez, los ingenieros del virreinato habían conseguido modificar la dinámica litoral para defender una infraestructura clave.

Décadas más tarde, un estudio científico publicado en la revista Water ) corroboraría que aquellas defensas pueden considerarse el primer campo de espigones de Sudamérica, además de una demostración temprana del conocimiento empírico sobre el transporte litoral de sedimentos.

Ciencia, desastres y una lección olvidada

La historia tuvo, sin embargo, un desenlace trágico. El 28 de octubre de 1746, un gran terremoto y un tsunami arrasaron el Callao. La ola, estimada en más de 15 metros, destruyó completamente la ciudad y se llevó consigo las defensas costeras. Murieron casi todos sus habitantes. El virreinato comprendió entonces que el mar podía vencer a la mejor ingeniería de su tiempo.

Plano de la Plaza y Puerto del Callao que muestra la Fortaleza del Real Felipe a la llegada del Virrey Amat.
Anónimo / Biblioteca de Cataluña.

En las décadas siguientes, los virreyes decidieron reconstruir el puerto tierra adentro, junto a la fortaleza del Real Felipe, sobre un terreno más elevado y protegido. Sin saberlo, estaban aplicando un principio que hoy consideramos una de las estrategias más sostenibles frente al cambio climático: el retroceso planificado.

Tres siglos de vigencia

El caso del Callao demuestra que los ingenieros del siglo XVIII ya comprendían la relación entre erosión, corrientes y transporte de arena, y que buscaban soluciones basadas en la observación y el ensayo. No trabajaban con modelos numéricos ni imágenes satelitales, pero su comprensión del litoral era notablemente precisa.

Hoy, cuando la subida del nivel del mar y la pérdida de playas amenazan ciudades costeras de todo el mundo, aquella experiencia del virreinato del Perú cobra un nuevo sentido. En cierto modo, los ingenieros coloniales fueron precursores de las actuales políticas de adaptación costera: supieron leer la dinámica del mar y actuar con ingenio, aun en un contexto tecnológico rudimentario.

Como señaló González Tascón, la ingeniería en ultramar fue también “una ciencia de frontera”. Sus autores trabajaban en el límite entre el conocimiento técnico y la supervivencia cotidiana frente a la naturaleza. Y, como demuestra este episodio, su legado sigue inspirando soluciones tres siglos después.

Un puente entre historia y futuro

El valor del caso del Callao –y del virreinato del Perú, en general– va más allá de la historia de una obra singular. Es el testimonio de un modo de pensar la costa, de entender que la ingeniería no puede imponerse al mar. Se trata, más bien, de dialogar con él.

Recordar esas primeras regeneraciones de playa no solo rescata un fragmento de patrimonio técnico e histórico; también nos recuerda que, ante la amenaza global de la erosión costera, las mejores ideas del futuro pueden tener raíces muy antiguas.

The Conversation

Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.

ref. Cuando el virreinato del Perú inventó la ingeniería costera americana – https://theconversation.com/cuando-el-virreinato-del-peru-invento-la-ingenieria-costera-americana-268583