Agroecology: rethinking global policy efficiency and funding priorities to overcome the blind spot in climate action

Source: The Conversation – France – By Fabio G. Santeramo, Associate Professor, Università di Foggia

Amid mounting concerns surrounding climate mitigation in the agriculture and forestry sectors, science-based evidence suggests a need for more effective, fair and coherent policy frameworks for cutting greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union and further afield.

International policies to protect the environment are at a crossroads: bold targets coexist with fragmented priorities, threatening the agenda. The debate is often dominated by the least effective measures, while high-impact solutions struggle to gain space and resources. Funding streams show only a faint prioritisation of green objectives, eroding the consistency of environmental action. These dynamics become especially evident in sectors where emissions are high and policies are numerous, yet strategic alignment and assessment remain scarce.

The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, responsible for over 20% of global emissions, continues to fall through the cracks of climate policy. In the European Union, it is often described as “the missing piece in climate policy.” Yet, it continues to be regulated with several national and local initiatives, while suffering from weak coordination at the macro level (e.g. EU, multilateral agreements).

Calls for policy efficiency and multilateral climate governance

Despite a wide range of local and national initiatives targeting emissions reductions in the AFOLU sector, there remains a striking lack of assessment studies evaluating their real-world effectiveness.

Ex-post analyses, though far fewer in number, provide evidence-based insights that are key to refining future strategies. Many initiatives prioritise conventional agricultural goals (i.e income growth, yield improvement) over environmental ones. A recent OECD review on policy effectiveness, echoed by university researchers, warns of incoherence in political agendas when it comes to lowering emissions. The findings highlight differences in the performance of policy tools, raising the question: Are the most effective instruments being prioritised and funded within current policy agendas?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the largest increases in conflict-related food insecurity. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that, due to the war, millions of people could still be chronically undernourished by 2030. The crisis has pushed food security to the top of the political agenda, with the need to ensure food supply often putting environmental and climate priorities in the background.

On June 20 2025, the European Commission withdrew its Green Claims Directive, a planned crackdown on misleading environmental claims. In the EU Parliament, the move sparked strong criticism from Socialists and Liberals and marked a setback in the fight against greenwashing.

Ahead of COP30, the UN’s annual meeting for climate cooperation, held in the Amazonian city of Belém in November 2025, Brazil’s National Secretary for the Environment and Climate Change, Ana Toni, raised serious concerns about the world’s “uncertain” response to the climate crisis.

One month before COP30, only one third of the nearly 200 countries had submitted plans to meet the requirements required by the 2015 Paris Agreement, while ongoing military and trade conflicts continued to divert attention and resources away from climate action.

India’s plans for one, still remain to be seen. Described as the world’s fifth largest economy and third biggest emitter of global greenhouse gases, the country was closely watched at the UN meeting.

Highest emitting economies are on the UN’s radar

COP30 absentees included China’s President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. China and the US are the two biggest emitters of planet-warming gases. At the summit China came under the closest scrutiny as the world’s second-largest economy and the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. What alarms analysts is that China approved 11.29 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power plants in the first three months of 2025, already surpassing the 10.34 GW approved in the first half of 2024. Reducing coal use is essential for China to meet its targets of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

Meanwhile, last June, in the US, Donald Trump was already laying the groundwork to open up 58 million acres of national forest backcountry to road construction and development, rolling back protections that have been in place since 2001. In detail, the Trump administration announced plans to repeal the 2001 Roadless Rule (describing it as outdated) which had preserved the wild character of nearly one-third of the land in national forests across the United States.

These trends could ultimately be summed up in one sentence: a policy agenda whose attention toward the environment is slowly declining, despite the growing urgency of sustainability challenges.

The Environmental impact of agricultural policies: Beyond market instruments

The expectations on the debate about agriculture’s inclusion in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) may be exaggerated. Our research shows that similar policies (i.e. carbon taxes, emissions trading schemes, and subsidies) are barely effective and tend to reduce emissions by percentage as high as 9%.

Agriculture potentially becoming part of the ETS is a major topic in the current policy debate. However, turning this into action faces challenges. Denmark’s recent decision to introduce a carbon tax on agricultural emissions by 2030, aiming to cut emissions by up to 70%, shows the level of ambition.

Setting a price on emissions through a fair and balanced application of the polluter pays principle makes sense. It helps cleaner alternatives compete, raises money to support a fair transition, and makes polluters take financial responsibility for the damage they cause. But for a future agricultural ETS to truly work, it must be designed properly: it needs a strict emissions cap, no free pollution permits, and a fair and efficient use of the revenues.

In the current Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the adoption of eco-scheme uptake has been poor. To make matters worse, CAP rules have been watered down, weakening several of the “good agricultural and environmental conditions” and giving EU member stateseven more flexibility in the approval process of their strategic plans. In this context, putting a price on pollution won’t change much if the rest of the system keeps supporting polluting practices. A carbon price only works if the broader framework stops rewarding emissions in the first place.

By co ntrast, non-market policies – i.e. Protected Areas (PA), Forest Management Programs (FMP), Payments for Environmental Services (PES), and Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) – often deliver better results, with stronger impacts on reducing emissions than market-based policies. PA, broadly adopted in Indonesia and Thailand, can achieve emission reductions of up to 60%, placing them among the most impactful policy instruments available. FMP and PES show encouraging results in land-use changes, such as the conversion of croplands into forests.

Research finds that FMP, widely adopted in Brazil, are the most effective in triggering substantial shifts in land use, with forest cover increasing to as much as 50%. One reason for this is that this type of policy makes it more appealing for farmers to transition: by conserving their land, they gain access to valuable resources such as timber and other ecosystem services. It’s a win-win, for the environment and for local communities.

While non-market-based policies demonstrate strong effectiveness in reducing emissions, they continue to face significant challenges. The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is an example of this. Although the EUDR was introduced as a landmark effort to curb global deforestation by ensuring that products sold in the EU are deforestation-free, it is now facing significant political pushback. Eighteen EU member states have called on the European Commission to ease the regulation, arguing that it imposes disproportionate and costly administrative burdens even on countries with negligible deforestation risk. They warn that the law, in its current form, could hurt competitiveness, drive up production costs, and disrupt supply chains; pressures that have already led to the postponement of its enforcement and risk diluting its environmental ambition before it is fully implemented.

Effective agricultural policy vs current funding priorities

If we are truly committed to climate goals, especially in the AFOLU sector, we must focus on policies that are direct, enforceable, and grounded on solid science. The research evidence illustrates that the most meaningful progress comes from mandatory rules-based approaches, such as PA.

According to the European Commission’s financial report for 2023, a total of €378.5 billion has been made available under the CAP since January 2021.

Of this, “The vast majority, around €283.9 billion, goes to direct payments and market measures through the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF), primarily to support farmers’ incomes. Meanwhile, just €94.2 billion is allocated to rural development via the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), the branch of the CAP that funds environmental protection and biodiversity efforts, such as PA.”

In theory, the CAP aims to place environmental protection at the heart of its strategy. But when we follow the money, the picture is less balanced. Between 2021 and 2027, over €40 billion per year was directed to market-related expenditure and direct payments, while rural development, the pillar supporting green initiatives, receives less than half of that.

What’s the upshot?

Most of the funding still goes to policies that are least effective at protecting the environment, especially when it comes to cutting emissions, while the more impactful measures remain underfunded. It is a mismatch that risks undermining Europe’s climate and biodiversity ambitions.


This article was co-authored with Irene Maccarone, a Research Fellow at the University of Foggia (Italy).


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The Conversation

Fabio G. Santeramo is also affiliated with the European University Institute.

ref. Agroecology: rethinking global policy efficiency and funding priorities to overcome the blind spot in climate action – https://theconversation.com/agroecology-rethinking-global-policy-efficiency-and-funding-priorities-to-overcome-the-blind-spot-in-climate-action-275839

Lissages capillaires : attention au risque d’insuffisance rénale aiguë

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Pauline Guillou, Chargée de projet scientifique, Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l’alimentation, de l’environnement et du travail (Anses)

L’Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire (Anses) a conclu, en janvier 2025, à un lien fortement probable entre la présence d’acide glyoxylique, un ingrédient utilisé dans certains produits de lissages capillaires, et la survenue de cas d’insuffisances rénales aiguës. En attendant une évaluation des risques au niveau européen, cette substance ne fait l’objet d’aucun encadrement ni restriction d’usage. Les consommateurs sont appelés à ne pas utiliser ces produits afin de limiter les risques pour leur santé.


Après plusieurs signalements de cas d’insuffisance rénale aiguë à la suite de la réalisation de lissages capillaires en France et à l’étranger, des études scientifiques ont montré qu’une substance contenue dans ces produits, l’acide glyoxylique, pouvait être à l’origine de ces effets.

Dans un avis rendu en janvier 2025, l’Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire, de l’alimentation, de l’environnement et du travail (Anses) a confirmé un lien fortement probable entre cet ingrédient et cet effet indésirable et préconise une évaluation des risques au niveau européen.

Quelles recommandations pour la sécurité des consommateurs ?

Pour l’heure, les autorités sanitaires conseillent d’éviter d’utiliser des produits capillaires contenant de l’acide glyoxylique et d’être vigilant en cas de symptômes inhabituels après un lissage.

En attendant d’éventuelles mesures réglementaires, l’Anses émet les recommandations suivantes :

  • Ne pas utiliser de produits de lissage capillaire contenant de l’acide glyoxylique ;
  • En cas de symptômes inhabituels pendant l’application ou dans les heures suivant la réalisation d’un lissage capillaire (douleurs lombaires, fatigue, nausées…), que le produit contienne de l’acide glyoxylique ou non, il est recommandé de consulter un médecin ou de contacter un centre antipoison en indiquant la réalisation d’un lissage capillaire ;
  • Pour contacter un centre antipoison : se rendre sur le site Internet Centres-antipoison.net ou appeler le (33)1 45 42 59 59 ;
  • En cas de symptômes inhabituels pendant l’application ou dans les heures suivant la réalisation d’un lissage capillaire (douleurs lombaires, fatigue, nausées…), que le produit contienne de l’acide glyoxylique ou non, il est également recommandé de déclarer l’incident sur le portail de signalement des évènements sanitaires indésirables du ministère en charge de la santé : Signalement.social-sante.gouv.fr/

À noter que la vigilance doit être de mise pour des lissages capillaires réalisés chez le coiffeur, en salon ou à domicile, mais aussi directement par le consommateur. Les produits capillaires lissants susceptibles de contenir de l’acide glyoxylique (même si leur étiquetage ne le précise pas) sont en effet disponibles dans le commerce et peuvent être achetés directement par le grand public. Ces lissages sont parfois – mais pas systématiquement – présentés sous certaines dénominations (« lissages brésiliens », « lissages indiens », etc.).

Une première alerte auprès du dispositif de cosmétovigilance en France

En janvier 2024, l’Anses, nouvellement en charge de la cosmétovigilance en France, a reçu de la part d’un néphrologue le signalement d’un cas d’insuffisance rénale aiguë supposée en lien avec l’utilisation d’un produit de lissage capillaire. Ce signalement concernait une femme ayant connu trois épisodes d’insuffisance rénale aiguë en trois ans qui se sont déclarés systématiquement quelques heures après la réalisation d’un lissage capillaire. Le seul événement commun aux trois épisodes était en effet l’application d’un soin capillaire le jour du début des symptômes (La cosmétovigilance consiste à assurer une surveillance et, le cas échéant, à identifier des effets indésirables chez l’humain liés à des produits d’hygiène ou de beauté que l’on classe, selon la réglementation, dans la catégorie dite des « cosmétiques », ndlr.)

Lors des trois épisodes, les premiers symptômes étaient une sensation de brûlure du cuir chevelu durant toute la durée de l’application, puis l’apparition d’ulcérations du cuir chevelu. Une douleur lombaire apparaissait dans l’heure suivant le soin, suivie de nausées et d’asthénie le jour même. Les produits utilisés lors des deux premiers soins lissants n’ont pu être identifiés. Le troisième produit, lui, était connu.

Des effets indésirables graves qui suscitent l’attention

Les néphrologues ayant pris en charge cette patiente ont mené des recherches afin d’identifier l’origine de cet effet. Ils ont ainsi établi un lien de causalité entre l’insuffisance rénale aiguë et une substance contenue dans le produit utilisé lors du troisième soin, l’acide glyoxylique. Ces conclusions résultent, d’une part, de l’observation de la toxicité rénale de l’acide glyoxylique chez la souris et, d’autre part, de l’existence de cas humains similaires identifiés dans plusieurs pays, notamment en Israël.

L’acide glyoxylique est utilisé dans les produits de lissage capillaire en remplacement du formaldéhyde. Le formaldéhyde était utilisé dans les produits cosmétiques et notamment pour les lissages capillaires, mais a été interdit en 2019 du fait de son classement comme substance cancérogène en 2014 dans le cadre du règlement européen CLP. L’industrie a alors développé des alternatives, dont l’acide glyoxylique.

Au regard de ces éléments, l’Anses s’est autosaisie pour dresser un état des lieux des connaissances sur la toxicité rénale de l’acide glyoxylique présent dans les produits lissants et déterminer si un encadrement des conditions d’utilisation de cette substance était nécessaire.

En août 2024, deux nouveaux signalements d’insuffisance rénale aiguë chez des personnes s’étant fait lisser les cheveux ont été adressés à l’Anses. Ces signalements concernaient des femmes, ayant présenté des symptômes tels que des maux de tête, des douleurs lombaires, des nausées, de la fatigue, ou encore une soif excessive dans les heures suivant le soin. Leurs analyses de sang ont mis en évidence une augmentation significative des taux de créatinine, un marqueur biologique de l’insuffisance rénale. Aucune autre cause explicative n’a pu être identifiée. L’évolution de leur état de santé a été favorable, après une hydratation, voire une hospitalisation de plusieurs jours pour l’une d’elles.

Appliqué sur le cuir chevelu, l’acide glyoxylique peut pénétrer dans l’organisme

L’analyse de la littérature scientifique menée par l’Anses a permis d’identifier des données à la fois expérimentales et cliniques établissant un lien entre l’utilisation de produits lissants pouvant contenir de l’acide glyoxylique et la survenue d’une insuffisance rénale aiguë dans les heures qui suivent.

Concernant les 26 cas similaires survenus entre 2019 et 2022 en Israël, pour certains d’entre eux, des biopsies rénales ont révélé la présence des dépôts de cristaux d’oxalate de calcium. Ces derniers peuvent constituer des calculs rénaux qui altèrent le fonctionnement des reins de façon parfois sévère. Parmi ces 26 cas, 11 patientes ont été exposées à des produits de lissage à base de kératine affichant, dans leur composition, des « dérivés de l’acide glycolique ». Pour les autres, le type de produit lissant n’a pas été identifié.

À également été recensé en Suisse, et présenté dans une publication datant de 2024, le cas d’une femme d’une quarantaine d’années ayant développé une insuffisance rénale aiguë après un lissage des cheveux. La biopsie rénale avait également montré des dépôts de cristaux d’oxalate de calcium. La composition du produit utilisé reste cependant inconnue.

Par ailleurs, des tests expérimentaux menés sur des rongeurs ont confirmé le rôle néphrotoxique de l’acide glyoxylique lors d’une exposition par voie cutanée. Enfin, la formation de cristaux d’oxalate dans l’organisme à partir de l’acide glyoxylique a également été démontrée.

L’ensemble de ces données suggèrent donc que l’acide glyoxylique, lorsqu’il est appliqué sur le cuir chevelu, peut pénétrer dans l’organisme et se transformer en oxalate de calcium.

Une substance dont l’utilisation n’est ni encadrée ni limitée

À la suite de l’analyse de l’ensemble des données existantes, l’Anses a donc publié en janvier 2025 un avis qui conclut au rôle causal fortement probable de l’acide glyoxylique dans la survenue d’insuffisances rénales aiguës observées après l’application de produits lissants.

À ce jour, cette substance ne fait cependant pas l’objet de dispositions spécifiques dans le cadre du règlement cosmétique (en particulier selon les annexes II et III, qui correspondent respectivement aux substances interdites et aux substances faisant l’objet de restrictions). Son utilisation n’est donc ni encadrée ni limitée.

Comme l’interdiction ou la restriction d’une substance cosmétique ne peut se faire au niveau national, l’Anses recommande donc de réaliser une évaluation des risques au niveau européen afin de statuer sur la sécurité de l’utilisation de cette substance dans les produits de soins capillaires et, par voie de conséquence, sur la nécessité de telles mesures réglementaires.

De plus, l’Anses préconise qu’une attention particulière soit portée aux substances (présentes dans les produits capillaires et autres produits cosmétiques) pouvant se métaboliser en acide glyoxylique.

En mars 2025, l’Anses a présenté ses travaux devant le groupe de travail sur les cosmétiques organisé par la Commission européenne réunissant les États membres et les parties prenantes. À la suite de quoi, un appel à données a été lancé par la Commission européenne dans le but de compiler toutes les informations scientifiques disponibles afin d’évaluer la sécurité de cette substance dans les produits cosmétiques. Cet appel à données est ouvert jusqu’au 8 avril 2026.

Se mobiliser pour protéger le public en Europe et dans l’Union européenne

Il est à noter que, depuis octobre 2024, 15 nouveaux cas d’insuffisance rénale aiguë ont été signalés en France. Ces nouveaux cas ont, par ailleurs, montré que l’acide glyoxylique pouvait être présent dans les produits même si ce n’était pas mentionné sur l’étiquette.

En effet, parmi les six produits pour lesquels il n’était pas fait mention de la substance dans la composition, l’analyse de trois d’entre eux a confirmé qu’ils en contenaient. Deux nouveaux cas ont également été publiés dans la littérature scientifique en Tunisie et en Algérie.

Cet exemple démontre par ailleurs l’importance de signaler tout effet indésirable lié à ces produits et aux produits cosmétiques sur le portail de signalement des événements indésirables du ministère en charge de la santé. Ces signalements sont essentiels afin de mieux comprendre les risques et protéger les consommateurs.

The Conversation

Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

ref. Lissages capillaires : attention au risque d’insuffisance rénale aiguë – https://theconversation.com/lissages-capillaires-attention-au-risque-dinsuffisance-renale-aigue-275738

Violent aftermath of Mexico’s ‘El Mencho’ killing follows pattern of other high-profile cartel hits

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Angélica Durán-Martínez, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass Lowell

A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle in Michoacán state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. AP Photo/Armando Solis

The death of a major cartel boss in Mexico has unleashed a violent backlash in which members of the criminal group have paralyzed some cities through blockades and attacks on property and security forces.

At least 73 people have died as a result of the operation to capture Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, or “El Mencho.” The head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel was seriously wounded during a firefight with authorities on Feb. 22, 2026. He later died in custody.

As an expert in criminal groups and drug trafficking in Latin America who has been studying Mexico’s cartels for two decades, I see the violent aftermath of the operation as part of a pattern in which Mexican governments have opted for high-profile hits that often lead only to more violence without addressing the broader security problems that plague huge swaths of the country.

Who was ‘El Mencho’?

Like many other figures involved in Mexico’s drug trafficking, Oseguera Cervantes started at the bottom and made his way up the ranks. He spent some time in prison in the U.S., where he may have forged alliances with criminal gangs before being deported back to Mexico in 1997. There, he connected with the Milenio Cartel, an organization that first allied, and then fought with, the powerful Sinaloa Cartel.

A red and white poster shows a man's face.
A wanted poster for ‘El Mencho.’
United States Department of State/Wikimedia Commons

Most of the information available points to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel forming under El Mencho around 2010, following the killing of Ignacio “Nacho” Coronel Villarreal, a Sinaloa Cartel leader and main link with the Milenio Cartel.

Since 2015, Jalisco New Generation Cartel has been known for its blatant attacks against security forces in Mexico – such as gunning down a helicopter in that year. And it has expanded its presence both across Mexico and internationally.

In Mexico, it is said to have a presence in all states. In some, the cartel has a direct presence and very strong local networks. In others, it has cultivated alliances with other trafficking organizations.

Besides drug trafficking, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel is also engaged in oil theft, people smuggling and extortion. As a result, it has become one of the most powerful cartels in Mexico.

What impact will his death have on the cartel?

There are a few potential scenarios, and a lot will depend on what succession plans Jalisco New Generation had in the event of Oseguera Cervantes’ capture or killing.

In general, these types of operations – in which security forces take out a cartel leader – lead to more violence, for a variety of reasons.

Mexicans have already experienced the immediate aftermath of Oseguera Cervantes’ death: retaliation attacks, blockades and official attempts to prevent civilians from going out. This is similar to what occurred after the capture of drug lord Ovidio Guzmán López in Sinaloa in 2019 and his second capture in 2023.

Violence flares in two ways following such high-profile captures and killings of cartel leaders.

In the short term, there is retaliation. At the moment, members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel are seeking revenge against Mexico’s security forces and are also trying to assert their regional authority despite El Mencho’s death.

These retaliatory campaigns tend to be violent and flashy. They include blockades as well as attacks against security forces and civilians.

Then there is the longer-term violence associated with any succession. This can take the form of those who are below Oseguera Cervantes in rank fighting for control. But it can also result from rival groups trying to take advantage of any leadership vacuum.

The level and duration of violence depend on a few factors, such as whether there was a succession plan and what kind of alliances are in place with other cartels. But generally, operations in which a cartel boss is removed lead to more violence and fragmentation of criminal groups.

Of course, people like Oseguera Cervantes who have violated laws and engaged in violence need to be captured. But in the long run, that doesn’t do anything to dismantle networks of criminality or reduce the size of their operations.

What is the current state of security in Mexico?

The upsurge in violence after Oseguera Cervantes’ killing occurs as some indicators in Mexico’s security situation seemed to be improving.

For example, homicide rates declined in 2025 – which is an important indicator of security.

But other measures are appalling. Disappearances are still unsettlingly high. The reality that many Mexicans experience on the ground is one where criminal organizations remain powerful and embedded in the local ecosystems that connect state agents, politicians and criminals in complex networks.

Criminal organizations are engaged in what we academics call “criminal governance.” They engage in a wide range of activities and regulate life in communities – sometimes coercively, but sometimes also with some degree of legitimacy from the population.

In some states like Sinaloa, despite the operations to take out cartel’s leaders, the illicit economies are still extensive and profitable. But what’s more important is that levels of violence remain high and the population is still suffering deeply.

The day-to-day reality for people in some of these regions is still one of fear.

And in the greater scheme of things, criminal networks are still very powerful – they are embedded in the country’s economy and politics, and connect to communities in complex ways.

How does the El Mencho operation fit Mexico’s strategy on cartels?

The past two governments vowed to reduce the militarization of security forces. But the power of the military in Mexico has actually expanded.

The government of President Claudia Sheinbaum wanted a big, visible hit at a time when the U.S. is pushing for more militarized policies to counter Mexico’s trafficking organizations.

But this dynamic is not new. Most U.S. and Mexican policy regarding drug trafficking organizations has historically emphasized these high-profile captures – even if it is just for short-term gains.

A burned car is seen on a street.
Violence has flared in Mexico’s Jalisco state since the death of Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera Cervantes.
Arturo Montero/AFP via Getty Images

It’s easier to say “we captured a drug lord” than address broader issues of corruption or impunity. Most of the time when these cartel leaders are captured or killed, there is generally no broader justice. It isn’t accompanied with authorities investigating disappearances, murders, corruption or even necessarily halting the flow of drugs.

Captures and killings of cartel leaders serve a strategic purpose of showing that something is being done, but the effectiveness of such policies in the long run is very limited.

Of course, taking out a drug lord is not a bad thing. But if it does not come with a broader dismantling of criminal networks and an accompanying focus on justice, then the main crimes that these groups commit – homicides, disappearances and extortion – will continue to affect the daily life of people. And the effect on illicit flows is, at best, meager.

The Conversation

Angélica Durán-Martínez has received funding from the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, the Social Science Research Funding and the United States Institute of Peace.

ref. Violent aftermath of Mexico’s ‘El Mencho’ killing follows pattern of other high-profile cartel hits – https://theconversation.com/violent-aftermath-of-mexicos-el-mencho-killing-follows-pattern-of-other-high-profile-cartel-hits-276728

We studied primary care in 6 rich countries – it’s under unprecedented strain everywhere

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Felicity Goodyear-Smith, Professor of General Practice and Primary Health Care, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Getty Images

Primary care – the kind delivered by general practice (GP) clinics – is the backbone of every health system. When it works, we barely notice it.

It keeps people healthy, detects problems early, coordinates care and keeps people out of hospital.

But across many high-income countries, despite very different health systems, primary care is under unprecedented strain.

Our recently published paper presents case studies from the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, Australia and New Zealand.

All show governments are leaning on primary care to solve increasingly complex health needs. At the same time, bureaucracies are demanding more documentation, compliance, performance metrics and administrative work.

However, very little new investment is going into the four parts of primary care that matter most:

  • continuity: seeing the same health provider over time, rather than pinballing from one specialist to another

  • comprehensiveness: getting the whole family’s physical, mental and social health care from one place

  • coordination: ensuring all the different people and services involved in a patient’s care work together smoothly, information is shared and roles are clear, so patients don’t fall through the cracks

  • first-contact care: being able to get an appointment with a doctor or nurse you know, when you need it.

Ballooning administrative burdens

These are the core functions of effective primary care, and they are what reduce hospital visits. But across many countries, the GP workforce is shrinking or stagnating just as populations are ageing and multi-morbidity is increasing.

Medical graduates are turning away from general practice, citing high workloads, lower pay relative to other specialities, and the emotional weight of increasingly complex care.

Many GPs who stay in practice are reducing their hours, not because they lack commitment, but because the amount of unpaid work required outside of the consulting room makes full-time practice untenable.

Administrative burdens have ballooned. Electronic health-record systems generate endless inbox tasks. As hospitals push chronic care back into the community, GPs absorb more responsibility without receiving the resources to match.

The result is predictable: practices stop enrolling new patients, waiting times blow out, and people who cannot get timely care turn instead to emergency departments.

These alternatives are often far more expensive, lack continuity, and do not offer the long-term relationships that help detect disease early and manage chronic conditions effectively.

Quick wins, long-term losses

Many of the countries facing these problems spend less than 6% of their total health budget on primary care. For example, the US spends 4%, New Zealand 5.4% and Australia 6%. But how the money is allocated is as important as the amount itself.

Funding models in many countries fail to support team-based care – a collaborative, coordinated model of healthcare delivery in which multiple health professionals work together with patients and their families.

Governments often finance new roles – for example, physician assistants – in isolation, without ensuring practices have the infrastructure to integrate them safely and effectively. This creates inefficiencies and fragmentation.

Poorly designed “pay-for-performance” measures can make things worse. So, when funding is linked to disease-specific indicators rather than the core functions of high-quality primary care, clinicians end up spending more time on documentation and less on patients.

Continuity and comprehensiveness, the strongest predictors of better health outcomes, remain largely unmeasured and unrewarded.

The benefits of primary care investment accumulate slowly – fewer hospital admissions, better management of chronic disease, reduced premature mortality. But political cycles reward quick wins. Governments are tempted to fund initiatives that reduce waiting lists in months, not strengthen foundations for decades.

The result is a proliferation of short-term “solutions” that crowd out the long-term reforms primary care actually needs. The system that prevents downstream costs is neglected because its benefits are not immediately visible.

Toward a sustainable health system

Primary care is relationship-based. That continuity – knowing patients, their histories, their families and the context of their lives – is what allows efficient decision-making and prevents unnecessary interventions.

When investment flows into standalone or narrow services instead of strengthening general practice, care becomes episodic. This can result in poor followup and patients bouncing between providers who are working without shared information.

This fragmentation increases costs while reducing quality, even though each individual initiative may look beneficial in isolation. Once the foundation cracks, the entire system becomes more expensive to maintain but less effective.

The solutions are clear, and are strikingly consistent across countries. A whole-of-system approach is needed to:

  • set explicit investment targets for primary care

  • align funding, workforce planning and service delivery

  • invest in true multidisciplinary teams, not piecemeal roles

  • prioritise continuity, comprehensiveness, and first-contact access in funding models

  • and create long-term accountability structures that survive election cycles.

Countries that have strong primary care systems will spend less overall on health, have better population health outcomes, and enjoy greater equity. Those that neglect primary care pay for it many times over in hospital pressures, workforce burnout and widening inequities.

Strengthening primary care is not just another reform. It is the only path to a sustainable health system. Countries that fail to recognise this are already seeing the consequences.

The Conversation

Felicity Goodyear-Smith has received funding from the NZ Health Research Council, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment, and other NZ research funding bodies.

ref. We studied primary care in 6 rich countries – it’s under unprecedented strain everywhere – https://theconversation.com/we-studied-primary-care-in-6-rich-countries-its-under-unprecedented-strain-everywhere-276617

Can blood tests really detect cancer?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By John (Eddie) La Marca, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer, WEHI (Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research)

Westend61/Getty Images

If you’re feeling worn out or have suddenly lost some weight, your doctor might send you for a blood test.

Blood tests are a common way health-care professionals detect, diagnose, and monitor a range of medical conditions.

But can they help us detect more serious conditions such as cancer? Let’s dive into the research.

How do blood tests work?

Blood tests are a technique used in the field of pathology, which is the study of the nature and causes of disease.

Blood tests assess what cells, proteins, and molecules are present in the blood. Health-care professionals use them to monitor things like organ health, nutrition levels, immune system function, and the presence of some infections.

To test for anaemia, for example, you would take a blood test and count the number of red blood cells in that blood sample. Another example is blood sugar testing, which is used to measure the glucose levels of a patient with diabetes.

What can blood tests tell us about cancer?

Currently, we can’t reliably diagnose most cancers using a blood test. One major reason is it’s often difficult to distinguish between cancer cells and normal, healthy cells. This is especially true when it comes to early-stage tumours.

But blood test results can give us clues about whether certain cancers are present in the body. So how do they do this?

1. By revealing abnormalities in your blood

Blood cancers will often cause clear changes in the number and types of cells in the bloodstream. We can measure these changes using a complete blood count, also known as a “full blood examination”.

This type of blood test counts all the different types of cells present in the blood: red blood cells, white blood cells, platelets, and more. Blood cancers arise when your body produces an abnormal amount of any type of blood cell. White blood cells, which fight infection, are the most common example. So a high number of one or more of these cell types may suggest the presence of a blood cancer.

But complete blood counts aren’t enough to make a conclusive diagnosis of blood cancer. We need to perform other tests to confirm whether the problem is a cancer or a different disease. These tests may include a biopsy or imaging techniques such as an MRI, CT scan, or X-ray.

2. By identifying “tumour markers”

We can also use blood tests to detect specific proteins which cancer cells often produce in greater numbers. These proteins are known as “tumour markers”.

One example of a tumour marker is prostate-specific antigen. This antigen is a protein made exclusively by the prostate gland. A healthy male will have only a small amount of prostate-specific antigen in his blood. In contrast, a male with prostate cancer will often produce abnormally high levels of this antigen. In this way, the prostate-specific antigen can serve as a “marker” of prostate cancer.

There are many different tumour markers used to identify different cancers. However, measuring tumour markers is not a foolproof solution. This is because they can be influenced by other factors. For example, an injury to or inflammation of the prostate gland could cause prostate-specific antigen levels to increase. So your doctor may perform additional tests to confirm if a person has cancer.




Read more:
Do I have prostate cancer? Why a simple PSA blood test alone won’t give you the answer


3. By locating rogue cells

For other types of cancer, blood tests can look for circulating tumour cells. Circulating tumour cells are produced when cancer cells break off from the original tumour and then enter the bloodstream. This usually only happens when a cancer reaches a more advanced stage and is metastatic, meaning it has spread to other parts of the body.

But this type of test is usually prognostic, rather than diagnostic. This means we can only use it to monitor the progression of a cancer which has already been diagnosed. So if a blood test does identify circulating tumour cells, it is best to conduct additional tests before proceeding with treatment.

So, are we close to creating a cancer-detecting blood test?

Unfortunately, we are yet to find a way to detect cancer with a single blood test. It’s a very difficult task, but researchers are making progress.

Circulating tumour DNA is a current topic of interest. These DNA molecules have mutations which distinguish them from healthy cells and can give information about the cancer they came from.

In one 2025 trial, Australian researchers measured the amount of circulating tumour DNA in 441 people with colon cancer to determine which patients would respond to chemotherapy. Another study from 2025 used circulating tumour DNA to monitor how 940 patients with lung cancer responded to different treatments.

One test did claim to successfully use circulating tumour DNA to detect more than 50 types of early-stage cancer. It’s known as the “Galleri test” and was first trialled in the UK in 2021. However, some experts have since raised concerns about the test’s effectiveness.

Researchers are also exploring other ways of using blood tests. In one 2025 study, Australian researchers adapted an existing test to use blood instead of tissue samples to identify known markers of ovarian cancer.

Another Australian study from 2025 investigated whether molecules other than proteins could serve as cancer markers. It found certain fats in blood can indicate if a patient with advanced prostate cancer will respond to treatment.

So, it looks like we’re still a while away from creating a cancer-detecting blood test. But with some time, effort, and robust research, it could be a possibility.

The Conversation

John (Eddie) La Marca receives funding from Cancer Council Victoria. He is affiliated with the Olivia Newton-John Cancer Research Institute and the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research.

Cameron Lewis receives funding from the University of Melbourne as part of a PhD scholarship. He is employed by Austin Health as a clinical haematologist.

Sarah Diepstraten receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Cure Cancer Australia and My Room Children’s Cancer Charity.

ref. Can blood tests really detect cancer? – https://theconversation.com/can-blood-tests-really-detect-cancer-269906

One of the biggest stars in the universe might be getting ready to explode

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Sara Webb, Lecturer, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

ESO / L. Calçada, CC BY

One of the largest known stars in the universe underwent a dramatic transformation in 2014, new research shows, and may be preparing to explode.

A study led by Gonzalo Muñoz-Sanchez at the National Observatory of Athens, published in Nature Astronomy today, argues that the enormous star WOH G64 has transitioned from a red supergiant to a rare yellow hypergiant – in what may be evidence of impending supernova.

The evidence suggests we may be witnessing, in real time, a massive star shedding its outer layers, shrinking as it heats up, and moving closer to the end of its short life.

A very special star

WOH G64 was first discovered in the 1970s as as star of interest in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf galaxy orbiting the Milky Way.

It turned out the star was not only extremely luminous, but also one of the biggest ever discovered: more than 1,500 times the radius of the Sun.

In 2024, WOH G64 was the first star beyond our galaxy ever photographed in detail, thanks to the Very Large Telescope Interferometer. The image showed a clear dusty cocoon around the central giant star, which confirmed it was losing mass as it aged.

From supergiant to hypergiant, big is big

WOH G64 is a young star in the grand scheme of the cosmos, with an estimated age of less than 5 million years old. Unlike our Sun (currently about 4.6 billion years old), WOH G64 is destined to live fast and die young.

WOH G64 was born big, forming from a huge cloud of gas and dust collapsing until the pressure made it ignite. Like our Sun, it would have burned hydrogen in its core by nuclear fusion.

Later it would have expanded and burned helium, becoming what is called a red supergiant.

Not all supergiants become hypergiants. It’s been theorised that hypergiants form when very large stars quickly burn and evolve from burning hydrogen to burning helium.

During this transition, these stars start to shed their outer layers, while their cores begin to shrink inwards. Once a star becomes a hypergiant, it is destined for a quick death in the fiery explosion of a supernova.

What has caused this change seen in WOH G64?

So what happened to WOH G64 in 2014? The new study proposes that a large part of the original supergiant’s surface was ejected away from the star.

This may have been due to interactions with a companion star, which the authors have confirmed exists by looking at the spectrum of light from WOH G64.

Another theory: the star is getting ready to explode. We know stars this big will inevitably go kaboom, but exactly when it will happen can be hard to determine in advance.

One possible scenario is that the transition we’re seeing is due to a pre-supernova “superwind” phase. This is theorised to occur due to strong internal pulsations as the fuel in the core is spent quickly.

Only time will tell

Most stars live for tens of millions or even tens of billions of years. It was never a given we would witness and be able to document so much transformation in a star, let alone one outside our galaxy.

If we are lucky, we will see the death of WOH G64 in our lifetimes – not only providing an incredible intergalactic spectacle but also helping scientists complete the puzzle of this fascinating star.

The Conversation

Sara Webb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. One of the biggest stars in the universe might be getting ready to explode – https://theconversation.com/one-of-the-biggest-stars-in-the-universe-might-be-getting-ready-to-explode-276519

A viral monkey, his plushie, and a 70-year-old experiment: what Punch tells us about attachment theory

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Mark Nielsen, Associate Professor, School of Psychology, The University of Queensland

David Mareuil/Anadolu via Getty Images

A baby macaque monkey named Punch has gone viral for his heart-wrenching pursuit of companionship.

After being abandoned by his mother and rejected by the rest of his troop, his zookeepers at Ichikawa City Zoo in Japan provided Punch with an orangutan plushie as a stand-in mother. Videos of the monkey clinging to the toy have gone viral worldwide.

But Punch’s attachment to his inanimate companion is not just the subject of a heartbreaking video. It also harks back to the story of a famous set of psychology experiments conducted in the 1950s by US researcher Harry Harlow.

The findings from his experiments underpin many of the central tenets of attachment theory, which positions the bond between parent and child as crucial in child development.

What were Harlow’s experiments?

Harlow took rhesus monkeys from birth, and removed them from their mothers. These monkeys were raised in an enclosure in which they had access to two surrogate “mothers”.

One was a wire cage shaped into the form of a “mother” monkey, which could provide food and drink via a small feeder.

The other was a monkey-shaped doll wrapped in terry towelling. This doll was soft and comfortable, but it didn’t provide food or drink; it was little more than a furry figure the baby monkey could cling to.

A monkey rests snuggled up against its cloth surrogate mother.
The wire ‘mother’ and the soft ‘mother’ in Harlow’s experiment.
Harlow, H. F. (1958). The nature of love. American Psychologist, 13(12), 673–685.

So, we have one option that provides comfort, but no food or drink, and one that’s cold, hard and wiry but which provides dietary sustenance.

These experiments were a response to behaviourism, which was the prevailing theoretical view at the time.

Behaviourists suggested babies form attachments to those who provide them with their biological needs, such as food and shelter.

Harlow challenged this theory by suggesting babies need care, love and kindness to form attachments, rather than just physical nourishment.

A behaviourist would have expected the infant monkeys to spend all their time with the wire “mother” that fed them.

In fact, that’s not what happened. The monkeys spent significantly more time each day clinging to the terry towelling “mother”.

Harlow’s 1950s experiments established the importance of softness, care and kindness as the basis for attachment. Given the opportunity, Harlow showed, babies prefer emotional nourishment over physical nourishment.

How did this influence modern attachment theory?

Harlow’s discovery was significant because it completely reoriented the dominant behaviourist view of the time. This dominant view suggested primates, including humans, function in reward and punishment cycles, and form attachments to whoever fulfils physical needs such as hunger and thirst.

Emotional nourishment was not a part of the behaviourist paradigm. So when Harlow did his experiments, he flipped the prevailing theory on its head.

The monkeys’ preference towards emotional nourishment, in the form of cuddling the furry terry towel-covered surrogate “mother”, formed the foundation for the development of attachment theory.

Attachment theory posits that healthy child development occurs when a child is “securely attached” to its caregiver. This is achieved by the parent or caregiver providing emotional nourishment, care, kindness and attentiveness to the child. Insecure attachment occurs when the parent or caregiver is cold, distant, abusive or neglectful.

Much like the rhesus monkeys, you can feed a human baby all they need, give them all the dietary nourishment they require, but if you don’t provide them with warmth and love, they’re not going to form an attachment to you.

What can we learn from Punch?

The zoo was not conducting an experiment, but Punch’s situation inadvertently reflects the controlled experiment Harlow did. So, the experimental setup was mimicked in a more natural setting, but the outcomes look very similar.

Just as Harlow’s monkeys favoured their terry towelling mother, Punch has formed an attachment to his IKEA plushie companion.

Now, what we don’t have with the zoo situation is the comparison to a harsh, physically nourishing option provided.

But clearly, that’s not what the monkey was looking for. He wanted a comforting and soft safe place, and that’s what the doll provided.

Were Harlow’s experiments ethical?

Most of the world now recognises primates as having rights that are, in some cases, equivalent to human rights.

Today, we would see Harlow’s experiments as a cruel and unkind thing to do. You wouldn’t take a human baby away from its mother and do this experiment, so we shouldn’t do this to primates.

It’s interesting to see people so fascinated by this parallel to an experiment conducted more than 70 years ago.

Punch the monkey is not just the internet’s latest animal celebrity – he’s a reminder of the importance of emotional nourishment.

We all need soft spaces. We all need safe spaces. Love and warmth are far more important for our wellbeing and functioning than physical nourishment alone.

The Conversation

Mark Nielsen receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

ref. A viral monkey, his plushie, and a 70-year-old experiment: what Punch tells us about attachment theory – https://theconversation.com/a-viral-monkey-his-plushie-and-a-70-year-old-experiment-what-punch-tells-us-about-attachment-theory-276625

3 ways Canada can navigate an increasingly erratic and belligerent United States

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Charles Conteh, Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Department of Political Science, Brock University

The United States Supreme Court recently struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs imposed under the country’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The court stated that the law, intended for national emergencies, does not grant the government the authority to impose tariffs.

In early 2025, Trump invoked the act to impose tariffs on Canada, along with Mexico and China, claiming the countries failed to stop illicit drug trafficking into the United States.

The ruling is the latest episode in a political dust-up between Canada and its neighbour to the south which recently involved the Gordie Howe International Bridge linking Ontario and Michigan.

More than steel or stone, the bridge is a symbol of a shared destiny that both respects and transcends differences. Despite their historical, institutional and political differences, Canada and the United States have bonded economically as neighbours, generating shared prosperity over the past two centuries.

In 2023, I wrote a book chapter Canada and the United States: A Symbiotic Relationship or Complex Entanglement? In that chapter, I posed a question: What if the United States becomes more aggressive and even less open to working co-operatively with Canada? To answer that question, Canada can draw lessons from its centuries-long coexistence with an often erratic neighbour to successfully navigate the economic volatility of the present era.

While the recent Supreme Court ruling presents a setback for Trump, it is unlikely to stop him from using U.S. economic and military might as leverage against Canada and other countries. As Canada navigates this belligerent U.S. government, a lingering question is whether this history of interwoven reciprocity is deteriorating into a complex entanglement of vulnerability.

Two neighbours, different worlds

In the book chapter, I describe the Canada-U.S. relationship as a complex picture of deep interdependence, marked by significant power imbalances, and the creative ways Canada has learned to adapt and prosper.

The economic and political interests of the two countries have diverged and converged in undulating waves over the past 200 years. The two economies are inextricably intertwined across a range of sectors, from natural resources and agriculture to advanced manufacturing. Around 70 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S., and the share of Canada’s merchandise imports from south of the border was around 59 per cent in 2025.

But for Canada, the relationship is more than just economic interdependence. The U.S. has a population of about 342 million and a gross domestic product about 10 times larger than Canada’s. That sets the stage for an asymmetrical relationship whose threads are woven into the fabric of trade and geopolitics.

For Canada, this can sometimes feel like vulnerability. And that vulnerability is increasingly being exploited by the U.S., creating a general feeling of existential crisis and entrapment.

Nevertheless, Canada can draw from its centuries-long experience to navigate the current headwinds. While the smaller of the two neighbours, it is not entirely dependent on the U.S. for influencing global events or harnessing international opportunities.

Canada has been, and still is, an influential power on the international stage. As a G7 nation, Canada is one of the key pillars in the scaffolding of the global economy. This global standing and international influence give it some room to manoeuvre.

Navigating an existential crossroads

First, in the international arena, Canada must diversify economically and geopolitically to build strategic resilience. Prime Minister Mark Carney is already moving on this front by agreeing to ease mutual tariffs with China. With negotiations to renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) slated for this year, a diversified trading economy will give Canada much greater leverage to navigate the vulnerabilities of asymmetry.

Second, Canada should draw from its record of championing a rules-based order. In recent years, the country has had to skilfully navigate the crossroads of projecting and defending its global and liberal-democratic values during periods of U.S. flirtations with populism, isolationism and anti-international rhetoric. As a middle power, it derives its strength from the rule of law and by presenting a united front with like-minded nations. A wider set of partners means more buffers against trade policy whiplashes and geopolitical shocks from the U.S.

Third, domestically, loosening inter-provincial trade flows, updating anachronistic regulatory frameworks and pursuing digital data sovereignty strategies should be high priorities to fire the full engine of the economy.

Similarly, as I’ve previously argued, Canada should use its comparative advantages in natural resources to create a strong, well-connected critical minerals supply chain. This would give it significant strategic leverage in the global economy as the world shifts to electrification and renewable energy.

Over the past two centuries, Canada has mastered the complex dance of asymmetry. However, the current crisis takes on an existential proportion that will require new agility, courage and decisiveness. It is an inflection point that will mark a consequential shift for the next generation.

Canada’s nimbleness and agility in navigating this political moment could be an model for other countries that must manoeuvre a world where the old rules no longer apply. It can serve as an example for small and middle powers who must navigate a world where great powers are increasingly belligerent.

The Conversation

Charles Conteh receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

ref. 3 ways Canada can navigate an increasingly erratic and belligerent United States – https://theconversation.com/3-ways-canada-can-navigate-an-increasingly-erratic-and-belligerent-united-states-276035

La Junta de Paz de Trump: legalidad dudosa, delirios empresariales y prepotencia masculina

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Rafael Bustos García de Castro, Profesor e investigador, Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Donald Trump da un discurso durante la primera cumbre de la Junta de Paz, celebrada el 19 de febrero en Washington. Casa Blanca

Rodeada por cierta expectativa y confusión se produjo el pasado 19 de febrero de en Washington la inauguración de la Junta de Paz. El motivo de esta confusión: las dudas sobre su encaje legal con Naciones Unidas y los límites de sus competencias.

La Junta de Paz actúa a toda rapidez aprovechando la incertidumbre jurídica que rodea su creación y objetivos. Se trata de un órgano administrativo de carácter transitorio amparado por la Resolución 2803 del CS de Naciones Unidas aprobada el pasado 17 de noviembre de 2025. De hecho, tiene como fecha de caducidad el 31 de diciembre de 2027.

En enero de 2026, el texto de la Carta de la Junta de Paz fue enviada a 60 Estados, algunos de los cuales manifestaron en la última Cumbre de Davos (celebrada entre el 19 y 23 de enero) su intención de unirse a la nueva organización internacional.

Precisamente el motivo alegado por la mayoría de los países para no hacerlo es que la Carta entra en conflicto con las obligaciones asumidas por los Estados al crear las Naciones Unidas y con los poderes y competencias atribuidos a esta organización. Es más, si bien la autorización para crear la Junta de Paz estaba confinada estrictamente a la cuestión de Gaza, el nuevo organismo internacional asume competencias universales de consolidación de paz sin límite geográfico alguno.

Además, mientras que el Consejo de Seguridad fecha su terminación al acabar 2027, el estatuto de la Carta afirma que la Junta se disolverá cuando quiera su presidente.

Pago en metálico por membresía permanente

Una lectura atenta al tratado que crea la Carta deja entrever una extraña combinación de aspectos jurídicos vinculados a las organizaciones internacionales junto con otros que son típicos de la gobernanza de las empresas privadas.

Si por un lado se afirma que la Junta de Paz es una organización internacional con personalidad jurídica regida por el derecho internacional, por otro se otorgan poderes vitalicios a individuos, no a Estados miembros, que son exorbitantes –presidencia vitalicia, designación a dedo del sucesor, pago en metálico por la condición de miembro permanente, poder personal de arbitraje, veto y poder de disolución…– que solo pueden concebirse en el mundo mercantil privado.

Por si hubiera pocas dudas e incluso sospechas sobre la finalidad última de la Junta, el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, afirmó durante el evento que aunque la ONU tiene un gran potencial, “la Junta de Paz supervisará seguramente a Naciones Unidas y se asegurará de que haga su trabajo correctamente”.

Obviamente, esto sería completamente ilegal, ya que la Carta de San Francisco (1945) es un tratado internacional especial que tiene preeminencia sobre cualquier otro y crea una organización única de tipo universal y fines generales que no admite subordinación.

Escenificación y mensaje performativo

Aprovechando esta confusión entre el mandato dado por Naciones Unidas y los fines declarados de la Junta de Paz, se reunieron en Washington 26 Estados miembros y dos decenas de países y la UE en calidad de observadores. Es evidente que muchos Estados no querían faltar porque se iba a tratar del futuro de Gaza y Palestina.

Además, asistieron el presidente del Banco Mundial, Ajay Banga; el de la FIFA, Gianni Infantino; el general estadounidense Jasper Jeffers, a quien la Junta ha encargado dirigir la Fuerza Internacional de Estabilización (ISF); y el embajador de Estados Unidos ante Naciones Unidas, Michael Waltz.

A título individual se dieron cita Tony Blair, como exrepresentante político, y Ali Saath, un exministro palestino elegido para liderar el órgano tecnocrático en Gaza bajo las órdenes de la Junta.

Completaban los empresarios y multimillonarios Marc Rowan y Yarik Gabay y Liran Tancman, así como los asesores presidenciales, también empresarios del sector inmobiliario, Steve Witkoff y Jared Kushner.

Ausentes estaban los Estados que han declinado participar en la Junta –como Francia o España– y otros que no han contestado y presumiblemente no participarán –Rusia y China–. No fueron invitados los representantes palestinos y, por supuesto, no había autoridades de Naciones Unidas.

Como habrá adivinado el lector o la lectora, este auditorio era abrumadoramente masculino, no habiendo ni una sola mujer en la zona de presidencia y muy pocas en el conjunto de la sala. La voz de una mujer, eso sí, se escuchaba para presentar a los invitados y cederles el turno de palabra.

La imagen de empresarios y representantes políticos actuando como en un consejo de administración, con intervenciones ordenadas y sin debate, con palabras caballerosas y apretones de manos, destilaba un olor rancio a masculinidad y una monotonía del lenguaje de los negocios que todos parecían compartir –prosperidad, oportunidades, inversiones, rentabilidad–.

De forma triunfalista se celebró el fin del conflicto en Gaza, como si ya estuviera resuelto, afirmando que es un éxito indiscutible de Trump, y dándose el dato de que el número de muertos se ha reducido al 1 % desde el alto el fuego de octubre. Se ocultaba así que Israel ha matado al menos unas 600 personas en Gaza desde entonces sin contar las víctimas cotidianas que dejan los ataques de colonos y militares en Cisjordania.

Un resort turístico difuso

El capital público (unos 10 000 millones de dólares anunciados por EE. UU y otros 7 000 millones por otros países de la Junta) más el capital privado movilizado a través del Banco Mundial convertirán a Gaza en un resort turístico, rentabilizando su “valiosísima costa de playa”. Ni una sola palabra sobre cómo se hará esto, cómo antes se tendrán que retirar las toneladas de escombros –lo que llevará años–, cómo se descontaminará el suelo agrícola o el agua subterránea, quiénes construirán esas viviendas y torres de apartamentos o cómo se conectará con el mundo exterior para la llegada de visitantes. De la soberanía de Gaza ninguna mención.

El discurso performativo logró en parte alejar de la mente del espectador la responsabilidad de Israel (cuestiones como quién debería pagar la reconstrucción de Gaza, qué ocurre con las ordenes de detención por crímenes de guerra y con la causa que tiene abierta por genocidio…) o la complicidad de EE. UU. en la destrucción de Gaza –primer suministrador de bombas y armamento–. Por un momento ofuscó, pero no derribó la idea más poderosa de que Gaza es parte irrenunciable de Palestina y que ningún resort conseguirá eliminar su identidad, ni sus derechos inalienables.

The Conversation

Rafael Bustos García de Castro no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

ref. La Junta de Paz de Trump: legalidad dudosa, delirios empresariales y prepotencia masculina – https://theconversation.com/la-junta-de-paz-de-trump-legalidad-dudosa-delirios-empresariales-y-prepotencia-masculina-276560

La muerte de ‘El Mencho’ desata una ola violenta que revela el poder del narco y su capacidad para reconfigurarse

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Francisco Pérez Fernández, Profesor de Psicología Criminal, Psicología de la Delincuencia, Historia de la Psicología, Perfilación e investigador psicosocial. Experto en historia de la novela gráfica., Universidad Camilo José Cela

El ejército mexicano patrulla por una carretera tras el operativo que acabó con la vida de _El Mencho_. RTVE

El operativo que acabó con la vida del líder del Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, ha desatado una ola de violencia sin precedentes en las calles de México. Esta respuesta, organizada y repartida por diferentes estados, revela que la hidra del crimen organizado está lejos de extinguirse. Más bien, la muerte de El Mencho encaja en un patrón ya conocido del crimen organizado mexicano: la eliminación del líder no destruye la estructura existente, muy consolidada sociocultural, económica y políticamente, sino que previsiblemente catalizará hacia transformaciones internas y reacomodos violentos.

Los orígenes del cártel más poderoso

El Cártel Jalisco Nueva generación (CJNG) surgió alrededor de 2009, cuando Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (1966-2026), natural de la comunidad de Naranjo de Chila (Aguililla, Michoacán) y más conocido por su alias de El Mencho, consolidó en una única organización criminal a un grupo escindido del Cártel de Sinaloa y a las células de Los Matazetas que él mismo controlaba.

Con anterioridad, Oseguera había pertenecido al cartel del Milenio, encabezado por Nacho Coronel Villarreal (1954-2010) y dedicado al tráfico de metanfetamina. Esta organización trabajaba en los territorios de Jalisco, Michoacán y Colima y tuvo cierta relevancia a inicios de los 2000. Pero cayó en declive cuando Coronel murió en un operativo en Zapopan, Jalisco, en 2010, posiblemente traicionado por los hermanos Beltrán Leyva, del cartel de Sinaloa.

Lo cierto es que el CJNG adquirió notoriedad rápidamente por su violencia extrema. Ejemplo de ello fue la macabra exhibición de 35 cadáveres –23 hombres y 12 mujeres– en Boca del Río (Veracruz) en 2011, acto que motivó que esta organización criminal se hiciera un hueco en el panorama nacional mexicano. El hecho es que, desde entonces, el grupo consolidó su presencia en al menos 25 estados del país, operando siempre mediante células regionales autónomas de alta capacidad paramilitar, con cadenas de comunicación funcionales y protocolos de respuesta rápida muy estructurados y eficientes que, por lo que parece, la muerte de El Mencho no ha desarticulado.

Estructura, capacidades y actividad

El CJNG se había venido empoderando a lo largo de la última década al no encontrar contrapesos, pues las guerras intestinas del Cartel de Sinaloa habían debilitado su capacidad de respuesta. Su crecimiento fue rápido y no tardó en contar con capacidad de violencia coordinada para la realización de narcobloqueos, quema de vehículos, cierres de carreteras y ataques simultáneos.

De la misma manera, su capacidad militar es alta. Posee y maneja armamento pesado, e incluso vehículos blindados. Ha venido sosteniendo una narrativa de desafío permanente al Estado mediante la difusión de imágenes de las maniobras de sus sicarios. Estas capacidades, así como su papel clave en el tráfico de drogas sintéticas, violencia transnacional y desestabilización regional, motivaron que Estados Unidos clasificara al CJNG como Organización Terrorista Extranjera (FTO) y Terrorista Global Especialmente Designado (SDGT).

La DEA (Drug Enforcement Administration), por su parte, había puesto a la cabeza de Oseguera un precio nada desdeñable de 15 millones de dólares.

El CJNG, debido a sus fuentes de financiación diversas, ha venido operando como una empresa criminal multifacética vinculada al narcotráfico (fentanilo, metanfetamina, cocaína y heroína) hacia Estados Unidos, siendo un actor central en la crisis de opioides estadounidense, que ha podido costar la vida ya a más de 500 000 personas y actualmente se encuentra en su tercera oleada.

Otros delitos asociados al CJNG son extorsión, robo y contrabando de combustible, tráfico de personas, lavado de dinero y control territorial mediante violencia extrema. Esto explica que la organización se hubiera convertido en un punto crítico en la agenda de seguridad de México y Estados Unidos. De manera muy especial en lo tocante al control del tráfico de fentanilo, la coordinación de operaciones militares binacionales y las políticas de seguridad del Gobierno mexicano.

Lo cierto es que desde que Donald Trump amenazara en marzo de 2025 con la imposición de aranceles a México, el gabinete presidido por Claudia Sheinbaum, en una política que claramente pretendía apaciguar al gobierno estadounidense y dirigirlo hacia una negociación económica sosegada, recrudeció su lucha contra el narco.

Sin embargo, pese a haber entregado a su vecino del norte a 29 de los narcos más buscados y establecido un control de fronteras mucho más riguroso, Sheinbaum no parece haber logrado avanzar de forma significativa en su objetivo. Consecuentemente, cabe enmarcar movimientos, como la presente operación contra el CJNG, en el mismo contexto de acercamiento y normalización de relaciones con el gabinete Trump.

La muerte de El Mencho: hechos y expectativas

El 23 de febrero de 2026, el ejército mexicano, en una operación informada y coordinada con la inteligencia estadounidense, que llevaba años realizando seguimientos satelitales y financieros, ha abatido a Nemesio Oseguera durante un operativo en Tapalpa, Jalisco. Este se saldó con 25 militares muertos y otros 12 componentes de la organización criminal fallecidos.

La reacción de los miembros del cártel ha sido extremadamente violenta, incluyendo bloqueos de vías públicas, incendio de vehículos, ataques indiscriminados y violencia coordinada en múltiples estados. Esto ha venido a confirmar, como ya se temía, su estructura celular autónoma y su alta capacidad para operar, incluso sin instrucciones procedentes de una autoridad central. La zona metropolitana de Guadalajara ha vivido alguna de las jornadas más violentas de los últimos años.

El hecho es que la muerte del líder Oseguera y la elevada capacidad operativa de las células que constituyen el CJNG abren escenarios inciertos con respecto a las posibles luchas internas por la sucesión. El Mencho no parece haber dejado una línea sucesoria establecida. Esto implica una reconfiguración territorial de la organización y una posible y previsible escalada de violencia en regiones donde el cártel mantiene presencia activa.

Dos precedentes: El Mayo y El Chapo

En términos de historia del crimen organizado, la muerte de Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes puede interpretarse como un acontecimiento central comparable a la caída del elusivo Ismael El Mayo Zambada (nacido en 1948), actualmente encerrado en el Centro Metropolitano de Detención de Brooklyn a la espera de una sentencia firme de la justicia estadounidense, o de Joaquín El Chapo Guzmán (nacido en 1957), en la actualidad cumpliendo una cadena perpetua también en Estados Unidos.

Históricamente, ha venido ocurriendo que la caída de los grandes capos no ha significado el desmantelamiento de sus organizaciones, sino, a menudo, incluso su dispersión y complicación. La estructura celular del CJNG, alejada del modelo piramidal clásico, parece apuntar en esta dirección. Por su alto grado de penetración social y diversificación económica, el CJNG ha llegado a convertirse en una organización cuya presencia permea aspectos cotidianos, económicos y sociales de amplias regiones.

Tras el operativo que ha dado muerte a El Mencho, el cártel no solo ha reaccionado con rapidez, sino que lo ha hecho con una violencia coordinada y de alcance multimodal en varios estados del país. Una respuesta que revela la presencia de estructuras regionales autónomas capaces de operar sin instrucciones centrales, con protocolos de reacción preestablecidos que explican la simultaneidad de las acciones y, claro está, con cadenas de comunicación funcionales y eficaces incluso tras la muerte del líder.

Sin embargo, también parece cierto que las caídas sucesivas de El Chapo, El Mayo y ahora El Mencho podrían sugerir un avance coyuntural –posiblemente no decisivo– del Estado frente a las viejas estructuras del narcotráfico, quizá demasiado acomodadas a un estado de la cuestión que parece haber venido transformándose a lo largo de los últimos diez años.

Narcopoder de base con una raíz social

En efecto, la existencia de un nuevo modelo de cooperación en materia militar y de inteligencia entre México y Estados Unidos, centrado en golpes quirúrgicos más que en una guerra abierta y la implementación de una vigilancia reforzada, contrasta con épocas anteriores y da pie a una reevaluación de la situación por parte de los carteles. Con todo, y en tanto que estructuras psicosociales y culturales fuertemente ancladas entre las clases más desfavorecidas y marginales de la población mexicana, esta reconfiguración de las políticas criminales no eliminará el poder de base de las organizaciones criminales, sino que provocará, a buen seguro, su reconfiguración estructural.

Parece claro, de hecho, que la nueva cooperación abierta entre México y Estados Unidos ha motivado que los grandes capos ya no puedan refugiarse en las mismas formas de protección política o territorial de antaño. Pero, al mismo tiempo, el Estado captura o elimina a los líderes sin lograr desmontar las redes económicas, armadas y territoriales del crimen organizado, con lo cual se llega a una curiosa situación de empate estratégico.

Este hecho parece indicar que la violencia no tenderá a disminuir, sino que se transformará, se fragmentará y se redistribuirá. El caso del CJNG ilustra esto con claridad: la persistencia del cartel, incluso tras la desaparición de su líder histórico, pone en evidencia que la impunidad no ha desaparecido, sino que tiende a adoptar nuevas formas.

Muere el símbolo, vive el sistema

La historia de la criminalidad organizada y su implantación sociocultural muestran que la muerte de las figuras criminales descollantes, como El Mencho en este caso, no implica necesariamente el fin del poder y la capacidad de las organizaciones que estas dirigían.

Y ello porque dicho poder no depende exclusivamente de un individuo, sino que se cimenta en estructuras económicas sólidas –muchas de ellas insertas en mercados legales e ilegales globales–, se sostiene por la capacidad paramilitar y de control territorial de células o nodos regionales, y se legitima (o normaliza) socialmente en regiones donde el Estado, por los motivos que fuere, es débil, corrupto, inoperante o simplemente ausente. Así pues, lo que muere es la figura simbólica, el póster que idolatra el imaginario popular, pero no el sistema que la sostiene.

Cabe deducir de todo ello que más que hacia un final del narco mexicano tal y como lo conocemos, los indicios parecen apuntar hacia una atomización y diversificación del modelo.

La lucha por el liderazgo traerá más violencia

La lucha por el liderazgo traerá más violencia. Primeramente, porque las luchas internas que se avecinan provocarán fracturas en el CJNG y disputas por el control de territorios estratégicos. En segundo lugar, porque es muy probable una escalada de violencia territorial mediante la cual las células autónomas podrían volverse más competitivas entre sí y más agresivas frente a rivales externos. En tercer lugar, porque el debilitamiento de la organización dominante puede observarse como una oportunidad para otros carteles, de suerte que la fragmentación del CJNG podría abrir espacios a grupos como el cartel de Sinaloa u otras organizaciones locales más pequeñas. Y en cuarto lugar, porque se producirá un reacomodo político y regional motivado por el hecho de que el CJNG mantiene relaciones y redes profundas en estados como Jalisco, Michoacán o Nayarit. Esto significa que su reconfiguración afectará también y de manera muy previsible a las dinámicas políticas y económicas locales.

La muerte de El Mencho, por lo tanto, no marca el fin de una forma de poder, sino que implica el cierre de un capítulo dentro de un fenómeno más amplio: la persistencia del crimen organizado como estructura social, cultural, económica y territorial en México. En todo caso, si algo revela la caída del líder es el agotamiento del viejo modelo del “gran capo”, pero no tanto de la estructura criminal-institucional en sí misma.

Lo que emerge, pues, es un escenario más fragmentado, impredecible y potencialmente más violento por disputado. No estamos ante un final, sino en un entreacto cuyo desenlace tendrá mucho que ver con la potencial capacidad adaptativa de los cárteles.

The Conversation

Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.

ref. La muerte de ‘El Mencho’ desata una ola violenta que revela el poder del narco y su capacidad para reconfigurarse – https://theconversation.com/la-muerte-de-el-mencho-desata-una-ola-violenta-que-revela-el-poder-del-narco-y-su-capacidad-para-reconfigurarse-276724