Category: The Conversation

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I’m a woman approaching middle age, do I need to get my hormones checked?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Susan Davis, Chair of Women’s Health, Monash University

If you’re a woman approaching middle age and you’re on social media, you might have been urged to get your hormones checked.

These posts often highlight troubling symptoms of perimenopause. Then they flag blood tests as a way to help you understand what’s going on and to guide treatment.

Some women are now turning to wellness providers and online services seeking these types of tests, often at substantial expense.

But these tests don’t provide any benefits. An editorial in the British medical journal BMJ has raised an alert about these tests. The authors conclude they’re unnecessary and shouldn’t guide treatment decisions.

So what hormonal changes occur in the transition to menopause? And why is hormonal testing mostly unhelpful?

What do hormones do during menstrual cycles?

The key hormones the ovaries produce before menopause are oestrogens (mostly as oestradiol, but also as oestrone) together with progesterone and testosterone.

The amount of each hormone produced changes during the menstrual cycle.

Blood oestradiol levels double around the time of ovulation. This is followed by an increase in progesterone.

Testosterone blood levels also increase around ovulation, but the increase is less than about 10%.

What’s the difference between menopause and perimenopause?

Menopause happens when the ovaries have lost the capacity to produce an egg.
After menopause, oestrogen and progesterone blood levels are dramatically lower than before menopause.

Perimenopause is the time between being pre-menopausal, through to the first 12 months after having the last menstrual bleed. But the end of perimenopause is difficult to determine if you don’t menstruate, for example after a hysterectomy or when you have a hormonal intra-uterine device (IUD).

Testosterone blood levels don’t meaningfully change at natural menopause; they slowly decline with age.

What are the symptoms of perimenopause?

During the transition to menopause, the ovaries function haphazardly. So oestrogen and progesterone blood levels can be unpredictably very high or very low.

Hot flushes and night sweats, also known as vasomotor symptoms, commonly start in early perimenopause and may persist for many years. Vasomotor symptoms occur intermittently during perimenopause and persist after menopause.

Perimenopause is identified by irregular periods (cycles closer together or further apart) or changed bleeding patterns (bleeding becoming scant or heavy), together with the onset of vasomotor and other symptoms such as:

  • increased abdominal fat
  • low mood
  • vaginal irritation and dryness
  • urinary symptoms, such as bladder irritability
  • memory difficulties, or “brain fog”. This seems to relate to the fluctuations in oestrogen levels and mostly resolves in the early postmenopausal years.

Our recent study shows the onset of vasomotor symptoms is the hallmark of perimenopause, and should also be used to diagnose perimenopause in women not menstruating (after hysterectomy or for other reasons).

Can a blood test tell you’re perimenopausal?

Blood oestradiol and progesterone levels are continually fluctuating during perimenopause. A blood test cannot be “timed” to any specific part of the cycle, as cycles vary in length and frequency.

So the results can’t generally be interpreted and are therefore not helpful.

However, it’s sensible to have blood tests to check for common causes of fatigue (under-active thyroid or iron deficiency) and palpitations and overheating (over-active thyroid).

How is perimenopause managed?

Treating perimenopause is not the same as treatment after menopause. Perimenopause is a time of hormonal chaos, rather than deficiency. So standard menopause hormone therapy (also called MHT) can make things worse.

Adding in an extra layer of hormones with the MHT that’s used after menopause will ease symptoms during the hormone lows, but often worsens symptoms during hormone highs (heavy bleeding, breast tenderness, fluid retention).

Instead, getting on top of perimenopause requires managing heavy and unscheduled bleeding, symptom relief, and, where needed, contraception, as the ovaries are still randomly producing eggs.

Can blood tests individualise hormone therapy?

No. Blood hormone tests can’t determine whether you might benefit from menopause hormone therapy or what dose you might need.

People’s oestrogen receptors have different levels of sensitivity and are turned up and down by other proteins and hormones in the cells. So even achieving the same blood oestradiol level with oestrogen therapy can have completely different effects in different people.

Individuals also respond differently to prescribed oestrogen, whether it’s tablet or through the skin. For transdermal patches or gels, the temperature of the skin, exercise, skin hydration and site of application affect absorption.

After absorption, oestradiol is metabolised rapidly to other oestrogens which are not measured in a standard blood test. So the total amount of oestrogen circulating is not determined by simply measuring blood oestradiol.

Do you need a blood test to check your dose?

No. There is no target blood oestradiol level that is right for everyone, and no established blood level that will prevent bone loss, heart disease or dementia.

Nor is there a perfect time of day to measure oestradiol, as the pattern of absorption of oestrogen over 24 hours varies, especially with transdermal oestradiol.

Plus, different commercial laboratories use different measurement systems so you cannot always directly compare test results between laboratories.

What about progestogen and testosterone?

Progestogens, including progesterone, are required to protect against thickening of the uterine lining by oestrogen.

The type and dose of progestogen needed can vary substantially and this cannot be predicted, or fine tuned, by a blood test.

For testosterone, there is no cut-off below which a woman can be diagnosed as having “insufficient testosterone”.

Whether hormone therapy involves oestrogen, progesterone or testosterone, for women who experience natural menopause after the age of 45, diagnosis and treatment is determined on symptoms, not blood hormone levels.

The Conversation

Susan Davis has served on Advisory Boards for Theramex, Astellas, Abbott Laboratories, and Besins Healthcare, and as a consultant to Besins Healthcare. She receives funding from the NHMRC, Medical research Future Fund, MS Australia and the Heart Foundation and has received research support from Lawley pharmaceuticals paid to Monash University. She is affiliated with the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

– ref. I’m a woman approaching middle age, do I need to get my hormones checked? – https://theconversation.com/im-a-woman-approaching-middle-age-do-i-need-to-get-my-hormones-checked-263541

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Sortir du petit geste : l’école doit donner aux jeunes les moyens de se mobiliser

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Charles-Antoine Bachand, Professeur, Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO)

Considérant l’ampleur des crises socioenvironnementales qui caractérisent l’anthropocène, de plus en plus de chercheurs estiment que les petits gestes écologiques ne suffiront pas et qu’il est urgent de plutôt miser sur des actions collectives. Pourtant, les systèmes scolaires peinent à faire une place à de telles actions dans leurs programmes de formation.

Professeur en fondements de l’éducation, c’est notamment à ce type d’enjeux que je m’intéresse. Que devrait enseigner l’école ? Comment peut-on permettre à l’école de réellement jouer son rôle social et démocratique ? Comment l’école peut-elle contribuer au pouvoir d’action des enfants et des citoyens ?

Dans cet article, je m’intéresse au concept de capabilités politiques collectives, et illustre pourquoi celles-ci pourraient contribuer à repenser l’éducation en anthropocène.

L’anthropocène, un problème politique

D’abord, notons que l’anthropocène est une expression de plus en plus utilisée pour identifier l’époque actuelle, alors que l’espèce humaine et les conséquences de ses actions se comparent à celles d’autres forces géologiques (volcans, mouvements tectoniques, etc.).

Or, contrairement aux autres forces géologiques, on peut espérer que l’humanité agit de façon délibérée et réfléchie. L’anthropocène n’est en ce sens pas simplement une époque de crises environnementales, mais bien plus un problème politique et collectif découlant des valeurs et des caractéristiques politiques, économiques et sociales de nos sociétés.

À ce sujet, plusieurs chercheurs ont souligné l’ambiguïté du concept d’anthropocène, qui tend à mettre tous les êtres humains dans le même panier et à leur attribuer la même responsabilité concernant les crises actuelles. Le terme Capitalocène est ainsi parfois proposé pour désigner plus précisément la responsabilité historique de la colonisation, du capitalisme et de l’exploitation du Sud par le Nord dans la naissance de cette nouvelle époque.

Pour notre part, comme le géologue catalan Carles Soriano, nous continuons de privilégier le terme anthropocène, tout en reconnaissant le bien-fondé des critiques apportées par ces collègues. À ce titre, Soriano précise que si la nouvelle époque dans laquelle nous nous trouvons est bien l’anthropocène, le premier âge de l’anthropocène pourrait être nommé le Capitalian afin de reconnaitre le rôle du capitalisme dans son apparition.

Pourquoi l’éducation doit-elle changer ?

Pourquoi, dès lors, repenser l’éducation ? Parce que l’anthropocène est d’abord social : l’action humaine l’a provoqué et doit donc être mobilisée pour en freiner les dégâts et en attaquer les causes (GES, érosion de la biodiversité, etc.). Il amplifie en outre les injustices et les souffrances humaines (zoonoses, inondations, sècheresses, migrations) et menace même l’habitabilité de la Terre.

En ce sens, former de simples « citoyens résilients » ou « éco-responsables » semble dérisoire. Les injustices qui nourrissent les crises environnementales – et que celles-ci accentuent – exigent un véritable pouvoir d’agir : la capacité, à la fois individuelle, collective et politique, de contester les structures injustes et de formuler des alternatives solidaires et durables.

Or, malgré une prise de conscience croissante, l’école reste marquée par une logique néolibérale où l’environnement est souvent réduit à une ressource. Les programmes abordent les crises environnementales sous un angle individualiste et apolitique, comme si l’on pouvait les contempler hors du monde qu’elle bouleverse. Ce traitement évoque à peine les répercussions sociales, et limite l’action à de simples gestes personnels, alors que les intérêts économiques dominent. De quoi, ajouter à l’écoanxiété des jeunes jugeant bien l’ampleur du porte-à-faux entre les actions proposées et la tâche à accomplir.

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Ce traitement est problématique : il occulte les causes structurelles des crises, rend invisibles les luttes des populations touchées et affaiblit les ressorts critiques de la citoyenneté démocratique nécessaires pour imaginer d’autres modes d’organisation sociale. C’est pourquoi, dans mes travaux, j’examine les potentialités de la capabilité politique collective (CPC) formulée par la chercheuse ontarienne Monique Deveaux. Issue des mouvements populaires, cette notion pourrait renouveler l’approche de l’action collective et de l’apprentissage démocratique en éducation.

Capabilités politiques collectives : un cadre pour l’éducation transformatrice

Le concept de capabilité est issu des travaux de l’économiste et philosophe indien Amartya Sen et de la philosophe états-unienne, spécialiste de philosophie morale et politique, Martha Nussbaum.

Très schématiquement, par ce concept, Sen rappelle que les libertés ne se mesurent pas aux seuls textes juridiques : elles dépendent des conditions concrètes qui permettent de les exercer. Le droit à l’éducation, par exemple, demeure théorique si l’école est inaccessible, coûteuse ou discriminatoire : l’enfant possède le droit, non la capabilité d’apprendre. La perspective des capabilités souligne donc qu’il ne suffit pas de proclamer un droit… encore faut-il instaurer les conditions matérielles, symboliques et institutionnelles qui rendent son exercice réellement possible pour toutes et tous.

Dans le cadre de ses travaux, Deveaux reprend ce concept en lui ajoutant une dimension collective et solidaire. Elle définit la capabilité politique collective (CPC) comme l’aptitude d’un groupe à se constituer en sujet politique capable de fixer des objectifs communs et de les poursuivre efficacement. Cette aptitude englobe des compétences adaptées au contexte qui n’existent qu’à l’échelle du collectif : élaborer des stratégies concertées, négocier, délibérer et décider ensemble, mais aussi créer de nouvelles structures adaptées aux besoins réels de la communauté.

Les CPC rendent ainsi possibles des réalisations (changer une loi, fonder une coopérative, mobiliser contre une injustice, etc.) qu’aucun individu ne pourrait atteindre seul. À ce titre, Deveaux identifie deux grandes familles de CPC : les compétences pour l’action revendicatrice (organisation, négociation, mobilisation) et les compétences de coopération et d’imagination (mutuelles, coopératives de travail).

Articuler pédagogie et transformation socioécologique

Alors que l’un des problèmes que pose l’anthropocène est justement l’action collective, ce qu’elle implique et comment il est possible de la développer, les CPC semblent offrir un cadre pour réfléchir ce que l’action collective exige.

Ainsi, une éducation en anthropocène fondée sur les CPC pourrait viser à développer chez les jeunes des capacités à s’organiser collectivement, à analyser les rapports de domination, à agir politiquement et à concevoir des alternatives viables à l’intérieur comme à l’extérieur des cadres institutionnels dominants.

Les jeunes auraient ainsi les outils nécessaires pour modifier leur monde, même lorsque les outils démocratiques, présents en théorie, ne sont pas disponibles (accès à la justice, à une représentation politique impartiale, etc.). Cela impliquerait néanmoins de ne plus mettre un accent aussi marqué sur le mérite individuel des élèves, mais sur leurs réussites collectives.

L’éducation deviendrait alors un levier pour renforcer le pouvoir d’agir collectif et pourrait dès lors réellement contribuer à une transition socioécologique juste.

Une éducation pour refonder le bien commun planétaire

Préparer la jeunesse à l’anthropocène, c’est l’armer pour l’incertitude, la conflictualité et la cocréation d’un monde habitable. Loin d’une injonction à l’adaptation technicienne, l’éducation doit devenir un espace critique d’invention collective. Les élèves‑citoyens doivent pouvoir agir ensemble pour la justice sociale et environnementale, interroger les normes dominantes et en élaborer de nouvelles.

Cette ambition rejoint l’appel de l’UNESCO à une « éducation transformatrice » et fait écho à l’une des préoccupations qu’avait un petit groupe de chercheurs auquel j’ai contribué lors de l’élaboration de son projet de compétence enseignante en lien avec le développement de l’agir écocitoyen chez les élèves.

Le cadre des capabilités politiques collectives offre ainsi un levier théorique et pratique indispensable : il déplace l’attention de la performance individuelle vers la puissance d’agir partagée, condition nécessaire à toute transition socioécologique juste.

La Conversation Canada

Charles-Antoine Bachand ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Sortir du petit geste : l’école doit donner aux jeunes les moyens de se mobiliser – https://theconversation.com/sortir-du-petit-geste-lecole-doit-donner-aux-jeunes-les-moyens-de-se-mobiliser-255694

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Trump’s push to fire Fed governor threatens central bank independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation)

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Ana Carolina Garriga, Professor. Department of Government, University of Essex

The fate of Lisa Cook, who is fighting attempts by President Donald Trump to remove her from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, has huge implications for a keystone of good economic policy: central bank independence.

At the heart of her firing attempt – and other moves to undermine the Fed by the Trump administration – is a power struggle. Central banks, which are public institutions that manage a country’s currency and its monetary policy, have an extraordinary amount of power. By controlling the flow of money and credit in a country, they can affect economic growth, inflation, employment and financial stability.

These are powers that many politicians would like to control or at least manipulate. That’s because monetary policy can provide governments with economic boosts at key times, such as around elections or during periods of falling popularity.

The problem is that short-lived, politically motivated moves may be detrimental to the long-term economic well-being of a nation. They may, in other words, saddle the economy with problems further down the line.

That is why central banks across the globe tend to receive significant leeway to set interest rates independently and free from the electoral wishes of politicians.

In fact, monetary policymaking that is data-driven and technocratic, rather than politically motivated, has since the early 1990s been seen as the gold standard of governance of national finances and has largely achieved its main purpose of keeping inflation relatively low and stable.

But despite independence being seen to work, central banks over the past decade have come under increased pressure from politicians.

Trump is one recent example. In his first term as president, he criticized his own choice to head the U.S. Federal Reserve and demanded lower interest rates.

Attacks on the Fed have accelerated in Trump’s second administration. In April 2025, Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell in an online post accusing him of being “TOO LATE AND WRONG” on interest rate cuts, while suggesting that the central banker’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” Unable to force Powell out, Trump has now brought the power struggle to a head with his firing of Cook, nominally over allegations that the Fed governor falsified records in a mortgage application. Cook has said that the president does not have the grounds or authority to fire her.

As political economists, we are not surprised to see politicians try to exert influence on central banks. For one thing, central banks remain part of the government bureaucracy, and independence granted to them can always be reversed – either by changing laws or backtracking on established practices.

Moreover, the reason politicians may want to interfere in monetary policy is that low interest rates remain a potent, quick method to boost an economy. And while politicians know that there are costs to besieging an independent central bank – financial markets may react negatively or inflation may flare up – short-term control of a powerful policy tool can prove irresistible.

Legislating independence

If monetary policy is such a coveted policy tool, how have central banks held off politicians and stayed independent? And is this independence being eroded?

Broadly, central banks are protected by laws that offer long tenures to their leadership, allow them to focus policy primarily on inflation, and severely limit lending to the rest of the government.

Of course, such legislation cannot anticipate all future contingencies, which may open the door for political interference or for practices that break the law. And sometimes central bankers are unceremoniously fired.

However, laws do keep politicians in line. For example, even in authoritarian countries, laws protecting central banks from political interference have helped reduce inflation and restricted central bank lending to the government.

In our own research, we have detailed the ways that laws have insulated central banks from the rest of the government, but also the recent trend of eroding this legal independence.

Politicizing appointees

Around the world, appointments to central bank leadership are political – elected politicians select candidates based on career credentials, political affiliation and, importantly, their dislike or tolerance of inflation.

But lawmakers in different countries exercise different degrees of political control.

A 2025 study shows that the large majority of central bank leaders – about 70% – are appointed by the head of government alone or with the intervention of other members of the executive branch. This ensures that the preferences of the central bank are closer to the government’s, which can boost the central bank’s legitimacy in democratic countries, but at the risk of permeability to political influence.

Alternatively, appointments can involve the legislative power or even the central bank’s own board. In the U.S., while the president nominates members of the Federal Reserve Board, the Senate can and has rejected unconventional or incompetent candidates.

Moreover, even if appointments are political, many central bankers stay in office long after the people who appointed them have been voted out. By the end of 2023, the most common length of the governors’ appointment is five years, and in 41 countries the legal mandate was six years or longer. Powell is set to stay on as Fed chair until his term expires in 2026. The Fed chair position has traditionally been protected by law, as Powell himself acknowledged in November 2024: “We’re not removable except for cause. We serve very long terms, seemingly endless terms. So we’re protected into law. Congress could change that law, but I don’t think there’s any danger of that.”

In the 2000s, several countries shortened the tenure of their central banks’ governors to four or five years. Sometimes, this was part of broader restrictions in central bank independence, as was the case in Iceland in 2001, Ghana in 2002 and Romania in 2004.

The low inflation objective

As of 2023, all but six central banks globally had low inflation as their main goal. Yet many central banks are required by law to try to achieve additional and sometimes conflicting goals, such as financial stability, full employment or support for the government’s policies.

This is the case for 38 central banks that either have the explicit dual mandate of price stability and employment or more complex goals. In Argentina, for example, the central bank’s mandate is to provide “employment and economic development with social equity.”

A shirtless man stands in front of a variety of vegetables.
Poor monetary policy can lead to rising prices in Argentina.
AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko

Conflicting objectives can open central banks to politicization. In the U.S. the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment. These goals are often complementary, and economists have argued that low inflation is a prerequisite for sustainable high levels of employment.

But in times of overlapping high inflation and high unemployment, such as in the late 1970s or when the COVID-19 crisis was winding down in 2022, the Fed’s dual mandate has become active territory for political wrangling.

Since 2000, at least 23 countries have expanded the focus of their central banks beyond just inflation.

Limits on government lending

The first central banks were created to help secure finance for governments fighting wars. But today, limiting lending to governments is at the core of protecting price stability from unsustainable fiscal spending.

History is dotted with the consequences of not doing so. In the 1960s and 1970s, for example, central banks in Latin America printed money to support their governments’ spending goals. But it resulted in massive inflation while not securing growth or political stability.

Today, limits on lending are strongly associated with lower inflation in the developing world. And central banks with high levels of independence can reject a government’s financing requests or dictate the terms of loans.

Yet over the past two decades, almost 40 countries have made their central banks less able to limit central government funding. In the more extreme examples – such as in Belarus, Ecuador or even New Zealand – they have turned the central bank into a potential financier for the government.

Scapegoating central bankers

In recent years, governments have tried to influence central banks by pushing for lower interest rates, making statements criticizing bank policy or calling for meetings with central bank leadership.

At the same time, politicians have blamed the same central bankers for a number of perceived failings: not anticipating economic shocks such as the 2007-09 financial crisis; exceeding their authority with quantitative easing; or creating massive inequality or instability while trying to save the financial sector.

And since mid-2021, major central banks have struggled to keep inflation low, raising questions from populist and antidemocratic politicians about the merits of an arm’s-length relationship.

But chipping away at central bank independence, as Trump appears to be doing with his open criticism of the Fed chair and his removal of a member of the bank’s Board of Governors, is a historically sure way to high inflation.

This is an updated version of an article that was originally published on June 14, 2024.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump’s push to fire Fed governor threatens central bank independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation) – https://theconversation.com/trumps-push-to-fire-fed-governor-threatens-central-bank-independence-and-that-isnt-good-news-for-sound-economic-stewardship-or-battling-inflation-263970

Posted on

Trump’s attempted firing of Fed governor threatens central bank independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation)

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ana Carolina Garriga, Professor. Department of Government, University of Essex

The fate of Lisa Cook, who is fighting attempts by President Donald Trump to remove her from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, has huge implications for a keystone of good economic policy: central bank independence.

At the heart of her firing attempt – and other moves to undermine the Fed by the Trump administration – is a power struggle. Central banks, which are public institutions that manage a country’s currency and its monetary policy, have an extraordinary amount of power. By controlling the flow of money and credit in a country, they can affect economic growth, inflation, employment and financial stability.

These are powers that many politicians would like to control or at least manipulate. That’s because monetary policy can provide governments with economic boosts at key times, such as around elections or during periods of falling popularity.

The problem is that short-lived, politically motivated moves may be detrimental to the long-term economic well-being of a nation. They may, in other words, saddle the economy with problems further down the line.

That is why central banks across the globe tend to receive significant leeway to set interest rates independently and free from the electoral wishes of politicians.

In fact, monetary policymaking that is data-driven and technocratic, rather than politically motivated, has since the early 1990s been seen as the gold standard of governance of national finances and has largely achieved its main purpose of keeping inflation relatively low and stable.

But despite independence being seen to work, central banks over the past decade have come under increased pressure from politicians.

Trump is one recent example. In his first term as president, he criticized his own choice to head the U.S. Federal Reserve and demanded lower interest rates.

Attacks on the Fed have accelerated in Trump’s second administration. In April 2025, Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell in an online post accusing him of being “TOO LATE AND WRONG” on interest rate cuts, while suggesting that the central banker’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” Unable to force Powell out, Trump has now brought the power struggle to a head with his firing of Cook, nominally over allegations that the Fed governor falsified records in a mortgage application. Cook has said that the president does not have the grounds or authority to fire her.

As political economists, we are not surprised to see politicians try to exert influence on central banks. For one thing, central banks remain part of the government bureaucracy, and independence granted to them can always be reversed – either by changing laws or backtracking on established practices.

Moreover, the reason politicians may want to interfere in monetary policy is that low interest rates remain a potent, quick method to boost an economy. And while politicians know that there are costs to besieging an independent central bank – financial markets may react negatively or inflation may flare up – short-term control of a powerful policy tool can prove irresistible.

Legislating independence

If monetary policy is such a coveted policy tool, how have central banks held off politicians and stayed independent? And is this independence being eroded?

Broadly, central banks are protected by laws that offer long tenures to their leadership, allow them to focus policy primarily on inflation, and severely limit lending to the rest of the government.

Of course, such legislation cannot anticipate all future contingencies, which may open the door for political interference or for practices that break the law. And sometimes central bankers are unceremoniously fired.

However, laws do keep politicians in line. For example, even in authoritarian countries, laws protecting central banks from political interference have helped reduce inflation and restricted central bank lending to the government.

In our own research, we have detailed the ways that laws have insulated central banks from the rest of the government, but also the recent trend of eroding this legal independence.

Politicizing appointees

Around the world, appointments to central bank leadership are political – elected politicians select candidates based on career credentials, political affiliation and, importantly, their dislike or tolerance of inflation.

But lawmakers in different countries exercise different degrees of political control.

A 2025 study shows that the large majority of central bank leaders – about 70% – are appointed by the head of government alone or with the intervention of other members of the executive branch. This ensures that the preferences of the central bank are closer to the government’s, which can boost the central bank’s legitimacy in democratic countries, but at the risk of permeability to political influence.

Alternatively, appointments can involve the legislative power or even the central bank’s own board. In the U.S., while the president nominates members of the Federal Reserve Board, the Senate can and has rejected unconventional or incompetent candidates.

Moreover, even if appointments are political, many central bankers stay in office long after the people who appointed them have been voted out. By the end of 2023, the most common length of the governors’ appointment is five years, and in 41 countries the legal mandate was six years or longer. Powell is set to stay on as Fed chair until his term expires in 2026. The Fed chair position has traditionally been protected by law, as Powell himself acknowledged in November 2024: “We’re not removable except for cause. We serve very long terms, seemingly endless terms. So we’re protected into law. Congress could change that law, but I don’t think there’s any danger of that.”

In the 2000s, several countries shortened the tenure of their central banks’ governors to four or five years. Sometimes, this was part of broader restrictions in central bank independence, as was the case in Iceland in 2001, Ghana in 2002 and Romania in 2004.

The low inflation objective

As of 2023, all but six central banks globally had low inflation as their main goal. Yet many central banks are required by law to try to achieve additional and sometimes conflicting goals, such as financial stability, full employment or support for the government’s policies.

This is the case for 38 central banks that either have the explicit dual mandate of price stability and employment or more complex goals. In Argentina, for example, the central bank’s mandate is to provide “employment and economic development with social equity.”

A shirtless man stands in front of a variety of vegetables.
Poor monetary policy can lead to rising prices in Argentina.
AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko

Conflicting objectives can open central banks to politicization. In the U.S. the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment. These goals are often complementary, and economists have argued that low inflation is a prerequisite for sustainable high levels of employment.

But in times of overlapping high inflation and high unemployment, such as in the late 1970s or when the COVID-19 crisis was winding down in 2022, the Fed’s dual mandate has become active territory for political wrangling.

Since 2000, at least 23 countries have expanded the focus of their central banks beyond just inflation.

Limits on government lending

The first central banks were created to help secure finance for governments fighting wars. But today, limiting lending to governments is at the core of protecting price stability from unsustainable fiscal spending.

History is dotted with the consequences of not doing so. In the 1960s and 1970s, for example, central banks in Latin America printed money to support their governments’ spending goals. But it resulted in massive inflation while not securing growth or political stability.

Today, limits on lending are strongly associated with lower inflation in the developing world. And central banks with high levels of independence can reject a government’s financing requests or dictate the terms of loans.

Yet over the past two decades, almost 40 countries have made their central banks less able to limit central government funding. In the more extreme examples – such as in Belarus, Ecuador or even New Zealand – they have turned the central bank into a potential financier for the government.

Scapegoating central bankers

In recent years, governments have tried to influence central banks by pushing for lower interest rates, making statements criticizing bank policy or calling for meetings with central bank leadership.

At the same time, politicians have blamed the same central bankers for a number of perceived failings: not anticipating economic shocks such as the 2007-09 financial crisis; exceeding their authority with quantitative easing; or creating massive inequality or instability while trying to save the financial sector.

And since mid-2021, major central banks have struggled to keep inflation low, raising questions from populist and antidemocratic politicians about the merits of an arm’s-length relationship.

But chipping away at central bank independence, as Trump appears to be doing with his open criticism of the Fed chair and his removal of a member of the bank’s Board of Governors, is a historically sure way to high inflation.

This is an updated version of an article that was originally published on June 14, 2024.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump’s attempted firing of Fed governor threatens central bank independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation) – https://theconversation.com/trumps-attempted-firing-of-fed-governor-threatens-central-bank-independence-and-that-isnt-good-news-for-sound-economic-stewardship-or-battling-inflation-263970

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Le dégriffage des chats leur génère une douleur à vie. Il est temps de l’interdire

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Eric Troncy, Douleur animale, bien-être animal, Université de Montréal

Longtemps, faute d’études rigoureuses à long terme, les conséquences du dégriffage sont restées sous-estimées. Nos recherches menées au Québec révèlent qu’il cause des lésions nerveuses irréversibles et des souffrances chroniques. Cette mutilation doit être bannie, partout et pour toujours.

Je me suis intéressé à la douleur animale très tôt dans mon parcours. Pendant mes années de formation en anesthésie et gestion de la douleur, j’ai été frappé par la facilité avec laquelle on banalisait la souffrance des chats dégriffés. Cette indignation m’a suivi en recherche et a façonné mon travail depuis plus de vingt ans.

Avec mes collègues du Groupe de recherche en pharmacologie animale du Québec (GREPAQ – Université de Montréal), nous avons eu un accès unique à une colonie de chats atteints d’arthrose naturelle, une condition courante et douloureuse chez les animaux qui s’aggrave avec l’âge.

Nous avons développé et validé des outils spécialisés non-invasifs pour mesurer la douleur et la fonction nerveuse chez les chats – allant des tests cliniques vétérinaires à l’analyse de la démarche, l’imagerie cérébrale et les études de conduction nerveuse. Cela nous a permis de distinguer la douleur causée par l’arthrose de la souffrance supplémentaire engendrée par le dégriffage. C’était la clé : isoler la douleur de l’arthrose pour mieux cerner les effets propres du dégriffage.

Nos résultats, publiés dans la revue Nature Scientific Reports, ont été frappants : le dégriffage entraîne des lésions nerveuses aggravées à long terme, une sensibilité accrue à la douleur et des troubles de mobilité exacerbés, en particulier chez les chats plus lourds. Le système nerveux, surchargé dès le plus jeune âge, finit par s’épuiser, entraînant de la fatigue chronique, de l’hypersensibilité et une diminution du bien-être.

En d’autres termes, le dégriffage condamne les chats à une vie de douleur.

Une amputation, pas une coupe de griffes

Le dégriffage ne se cantonne pas à couper les griffes. Il s’agit de l’amputation de la dernière phalange de chaque doigt, généralement des pattes avant, parfois des quatre pattes. L’opération peut être réalisée à l’aide d’une lame de bistouri, d’un laser chirurgical, voire de coupe-griffes stérilisé.

La science vétérinaire a comparé les techniques, les protocoles analgésiques, et les complications, mais l’histoire dominante revenait toujours à la même idée : le dégriffage est controversé, mais permet encore, selon certains, de sauver des animaux.

Même l’American Veterinary Medical Association a conclu en 2022 que « des preuves scientifiques contradictoires existent concernant les conséquences du dégriffage ».

En tant que scientifique, je savais que cette « contradiction » reflétait en réalité une lacune dans la recherche : il n’y avait jamais eu d’étude rigoureuse et à long terme sur la douleur chronique causée par le dégriffage.

Pourquoi cette recherche était nécessaire

J’ai obtenu mon diplôme de Doctorat d’État vétérinaire à Lyon, en France, en 1992 – l’année même où l’Union européenne a proclamé l’interdiction du dégriffage des chats. Lorsque je suis arrivé en Amérique du Nord pour me spécialiser en anesthésie et en gestion de la douleur, j’ai été choqué de constater à quel point cette pratique était encore courante. Étant passionné par le bien-être animal, je n’ai jamais vu cette pratique autrement que comme une mutilation pour convenance.

Je me souviens encore d’avoir lu, en 2006, une lettre à l’éditeur, dans laquelle le Dr. Michael W. Fox, expert en éthologie et comportement animal, écrivait :

« Les propriétaires de chats attentionnés et responsables apprennent à leurs chats à utiliser des griffoirs… plutôt que de recourir au dégriffage systématique, qui constitue une mutilation pour des raisons de commodité. »

Pourtant, d’autres vétérinaires rejetaient ce point de vue, affirmant que la douleur était « minime » comparée à d’autres interventions – « quand on se compare, on se console ! » – et justifiant le dégriffage par une vision utilitariste : si cela évite que les propriétaires abandonnent leurs chats, la pratique est acceptable.

Et ainsi, cette pratique est restée largement répandue aux États-Unis et dans certaines provinces canadiennes, malgré son interdiction au Québec, en 2024. En fait, on estime qu’en 2025, quelque 25 millions de chats en Amérique du Nord sont dégriffés.

Un constat scientifique sans équivoque

Nos travaux ont donc constitué à comparer une cohorte de chats sains, à une cohorte de chats arthrosiques et à une cohorte de chats arthrosiques et dégriffés. Recueillir un nombre suffisant d’animaux ayant tous été soumis aux mêmes évaluations non-invasives a nécessité plus d’une décennie.

Mais l’attente a été bénéfique. Les preuves sont sans appel. Les chats arthrosiques présentent une sensibilité accrue au toucher, aggravée chez ceux qui sont aussi dégriffés. Leur système nerveux, sur-sollicité, développe une neuro-sensibilisation qui s’intensifie avec le temps, jusqu’à l’épuisement. Enfin, des répercussions biomécaniques se manifestent dans leur démarche, et les chats les plus lourds paient le prix le plus élevé.

Ces atteintes s’accompagnent de comportements altérés chez les chats dégriffés : réticence à sauter, négligence de la litière liée à la douleur dans les pattes, réactions de retrait à la palpation des doigts, voire une agressivité inhabituelle.

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Sur ces aspects, nos travaux menés par la Dr Aude Castel, neurologue vétérinaire, apportent un éclairage nouveau : les tests électrophysiologiques révèlent une atteinte directe des nerfs. Ces altérations, peut-être irréversibles, confirment la neuro-sensibilisation observée : un système nerveux défaillant et épuisé, qui correspond aux troubles comportementaux décrits.

La sensibilisation et l’éducation comportementale

En tant que vétérinaires, notre mission est de protéger le bien-être animal. En continuant à pratiquer le dégriffage, nous avons failli à cette mission. Les preuves sont désormais claires : il ne s’agit pas que d’une chirurgie de routine, mais d’une pratique éthiquement inacceptable aux conséquences graves et durables.

À la lumière de ces preuves, les vétérinaires doivent activement sensibiliser les propriétaires de chats aux graves conséquences à long terme du dégriffage et préconiser des stratégies alternatives telles que l’éducation comportementale, la coupe des griffes et l’utilisation de griffoirs. D’autres interventions, comme la ténotomie (section des tendons fléchisseurs des griffes), doivent être évitées, car elles perturbent le comportement naturel du chat et peuvent engendrer des douleurs chroniques similaires à celles du dégriffage.

De plus, les organismes de réglementation, comme l’Association canadienne des médecins vétérinaires et l’American Veterinary Medical Association, devraient intégrer les données scientifiques dans leurs décisions politiques afin de protéger le bien-être des félins.

Il est temps de bannir le dégriffage partout, surtout en Amérique du Nord.

La Conversation Canada

Eric Troncy a reçu des financements de Conseil de recherches en sciences naturelles et en génie du Canada, Fondation canadienne pour l’innovation.

– ref. Le dégriffage des chats leur génère une douleur à vie. Il est temps de l’interdire – https://theconversation.com/le-degriffage-des-chats-leur-genere-une-douleur-a-vie-il-est-temps-de-linterdire-263709

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Sortir du petit geste : l’urgence d’une éducation politique en anthropocène

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Charles-Antoine Bachand, Professeur, Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO)

Considérant l’ampleur des crises socioenvironnementales qui caractérisent l’anthropocène, de plus en plus de chercheurs estiment que les petits gestes écologiques ne suffiront pas et qu’il est urgent de plutôt miser sur des actions collectives. Pourtant, les systèmes scolaires peinent à faire une place à de telles actions dans leurs programmes de formation.

Professeur en fondements de l’éducation, c’est notamment à ce type d’enjeux que je m’intéresse. Que devrait enseigner l’école ? Comment peut-on permettre à l’école de réellement jouer son rôle social et démocratique ? Comment l’école peut-elle contribuer au pouvoir d’action des enfants et des citoyens ?

Dans cet article, je m’intéresse au concept de capabilités politiques collectives, et illustre pourquoi celles-ci pourraient contribuer à repenser l’éducation en anthropocène.

L’anthropocène, un problème politique

D’abord, notons que l’anthropocène est une expression de plus en plus utilisée pour identifier l’époque actuelle, alors que l’espèce humaine et les conséquences de ses actions se comparent à celles d’autres forces géologiques (volcans, mouvements tectoniques, etc.).

Or, contrairement aux autres forces géologiques, on peut espérer que l’humanité agit de façon délibérée et réfléchie. L’anthropocène n’est en ce sens pas simplement une époque de crises environnementales, mais bien plus un problème politique et collectif découlant des valeurs et des caractéristiques politiques, économiques et sociales de nos sociétés.

À ce sujet, plusieurs chercheurs ont souligné l’ambiguïté du concept d’anthropocène, qui tend à mettre tous les êtres humains dans le même panier et à leur attribuer la même responsabilité concernant les crises actuelles. Le terme Capitalocène est ainsi parfois proposé pour désigner plus précisément la responsabilité historique de la colonisation, du capitalisme et de l’exploitation du Sud par le Nord dans la naissance de cette nouvelle époque.

Pour notre part, comme le géologue catalan Carles Soriano, nous continuons de privilégier le terme anthropocène, tout en reconnaissant le bien-fondé des critiques apportées par ces collègues. À ce titre, Soriano précise que si la nouvelle époque dans laquelle nous nous trouvons est bien l’anthropocène, le premier âge de l’anthropocène pourrait être nommé le Capitalian afin de reconnaitre le rôle du capitalisme dans son apparition.

Pourquoi l’éducation doit-elle changer ?

Pourquoi, dès lors, repenser l’éducation ? Parce que l’anthropocène est d’abord social : l’action humaine l’a provoqué et doit donc être mobilisée pour en freiner les dégâts et en attaquer les causes (GES, érosion de la biodiversité, etc.). Il amplifie en outre les injustices et les souffrances humaines (zoonoses, inondations, sècheresses, migrations) et menace même l’habitabilité de la Terre.

En ce sens, former de simples « citoyens résilients » ou « éco-responsables » semble dérisoire. Les injustices qui nourrissent les crises environnementales – et que celles-ci accentuent – exigent un véritable pouvoir d’agir : la capacité, à la fois individuelle, collective et politique, de contester les structures injustes et de formuler des alternatives solidaires et durables.

Or, malgré une prise de conscience croissante, l’école reste marquée par une logique néolibérale où l’environnement est souvent réduit à une ressource. Les programmes abordent les crises environnementales sous un angle individualiste et apolitique, comme si l’on pouvait les contempler hors du monde qu’elle bouleverse. Ce traitement évoque à peine les répercussions sociales, et limite l’action à de simples gestes personnels, alors que les intérêts économiques dominent. De quoi, ajouter à l’écoanxiété des jeunes jugeant bien l’ampleur du porte-à-faux entre les actions proposées et la tâche à accomplir.

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Ce traitement est problématique : il occulte les causes structurelles des crises, rend invisibles les luttes des populations touchées et affaiblit les ressorts critiques de la citoyenneté démocratique nécessaires pour imaginer d’autres modes d’organisation sociale. C’est pourquoi, dans mes travaux, j’examine les potentialités de la capabilité politique collective (CPC) formulée par la chercheuse ontarienne Monique Deveaux. Issue des mouvements populaires, cette notion pourrait renouveler l’approche de l’action collective et de l’apprentissage démocratique en éducation.

Capabilités politiques collectives : un cadre pour l’éducation transformatrice

Le concept de capabilité est issu des travaux de l’économiste et philosophe indien Amartya Sen et de la philosophe états-unienne, spécialiste de philosophie morale et politique, Martha Nussbaum.

Très schématiquement, par ce concept, Sen rappelle que les libertés ne se mesurent pas aux seuls textes juridiques : elles dépendent des conditions concrètes qui permettent de les exercer. Le droit à l’éducation, par exemple, demeure théorique si l’école est inaccessible, coûteuse ou discriminatoire : l’enfant possède le droit, non la capabilité d’apprendre. La perspective des capabilités souligne donc qu’il ne suffit pas de proclamer un droit… encore faut-il instaurer les conditions matérielles, symboliques et institutionnelles qui rendent son exercice réellement possible pour toutes et tous.

Dans le cadre de ses travaux, Deveaux reprend ce concept en lui ajoutant une dimension collective et solidaire. Elle définit la capabilité politique collective (CPC) comme l’aptitude d’un groupe à se constituer en sujet politique capable de fixer des objectifs communs et de les poursuivre efficacement. Cette aptitude englobe des compétences adaptées au contexte qui n’existent qu’à l’échelle du collectif : élaborer des stratégies concertées, négocier, délibérer et décider ensemble, mais aussi créer de nouvelles structures adaptées aux besoins réels de la communauté.

Les CPC rendent ainsi possibles des réalisations (changer une loi, fonder une coopérative, mobiliser contre une injustice, etc.) qu’aucun individu ne pourrait atteindre seul. À ce titre, Deveaux identifie deux grandes familles de CPC : les compétences pour l’action revendicatrice (organisation, négociation, mobilisation) et les compétences de coopération et d’imagination (mutuelles, coopératives de travail).

Articuler pédagogie et transformation socioécologique

Alors que l’un des problèmes que pose l’anthropocène est justement l’action collective, ce qu’elle implique et comment il est possible de la développer, les CPC semblent offrir un cadre pour réfléchir ce que l’action collective exige.

Ainsi, une éducation en anthropocène fondée sur les CPC pourrait viser à développer chez les jeunes des capacités à s’organiser collectivement, à analyser les rapports de domination, à agir politiquement et à concevoir des alternatives viables à l’intérieur comme à l’extérieur des cadres institutionnels dominants.

Les jeunes auraient ainsi les outils nécessaires pour modifier leur monde, même lorsque les outils démocratiques, présents en théorie, ne sont pas disponibles (accès à la justice, à une représentation politique impartiale, etc.). Cela impliquerait néanmoins de ne plus mettre un accent aussi marqué sur le mérite individuel des élèves, mais sur leurs réussites collectives.

L’éducation deviendrait alors un levier pour renforcer le pouvoir d’agir collectif et pourrait dès lors réellement contribuer à une transition socioécologique juste.

Une éducation pour refonder le bien commun planétaire

Préparer la jeunesse à l’anthropocène, c’est l’armer pour l’incertitude, la conflictualité et la cocréation d’un monde habitable. Loin d’une injonction à l’adaptation technicienne, l’éducation doit devenir un espace critique d’invention collective. Les élèves‑citoyens doivent pouvoir agir ensemble pour la justice sociale et environnementale, interroger les normes dominantes et en élaborer de nouvelles.

Cette ambition rejoint l’appel de l’UNESCO à une « éducation transformatrice » et fait écho à l’une des préoccupations qu’avait un petit groupe de chercheurs auquel j’ai contribué lors de l’élaboration de son projet de compétence enseignante en lien avec le développement de l’agir écocitoyen chez les élèves.

Le cadre des capabilités politiques collectives offre ainsi un levier théorique et pratique indispensable : il déplace l’attention de la performance individuelle vers la puissance d’agir partagée, condition nécessaire à toute transition socioécologique juste.

La Conversation Canada

Charles-Antoine Bachand ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Sortir du petit geste : l’urgence d’une éducation politique en anthropocène – https://theconversation.com/sortir-du-petit-geste-lurgence-dune-education-politique-en-anthropocene-255694

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US and Israel push to end UN peacekeeping mandate in south Lebanon risks regional chaos

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vanessa Newby, Senior Lecturer, Politics & International Relations, Monash University

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) is seen by many as an essential peacekeeping buffer between Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah. But Israeli pressure, US doubts over Unifil’s cost-effectiveness and the fragile state of Lebanon’s politics means there is a risk that instead of being renewed on August 31 the mission could be ended. The stakes are high: an abrupt withdrawal could create a dangerous security vacuum along the Israeli-Lebanese border and this could have broader implications for stability in the Middle East.

The US is keen to reduce its financial commitments to UN peacekeeping, with Washington arguing that expensive and longstanding missions should be downsized or wound down to cut costs. This makes it more receptive to Israeli insistence that the mission has been ineffective in addressing the existential threat posed by Hezbollah.

But Unifil’s mandate has never been to directly disarm Hezbollah. Instead, the mission is tasked with creating and maintaining a space free of armed groups in southern Lebanon by supporting the Lebanese armed forces (LAF). Central to the Israeli narrative is the claim that Unifil failed to uncover Hezbollah’s tunnel network in south Lebanon. This criticism obscures the fact that Israeli intelligence also overlooked the same tunnels for more than a decade — despite the fact that they crossed into Israeli territory.

As part of the agreements it made after the war in 2024, Lebanon has made concrete attempts to confront the military dominance of Hezbollah in the region. The LAF has expanded its deployment in the south, dismantled Hezbollah fortifications, and begun consolidating weapons under state control.

In August 2025, the Lebanese cabinet instructed the LAF to devise a national plan aimed at ensuring a state monopoly on the use of armed force. This step has sparked fierce resistance from Hezbollah and its political allies, underscoring the risks involved in challenging the group’s armed status.

The process remains precarious. Deadly incidents, such as an explosion that killed six LAF troops removing weapons from a Hezbollah arms depot on August 9, highlight how volatile the disarmament effort is. Still, these steps mark the most serious attempt in years by Beirut to assert control over Hezbollah’s armed status. It’s a development that makes Unifil’s continued presence even more significant as a stabilising buffer while this process plays out.

Security Council wrangling

Despite these positive moves, wrangling continues at the UN headquarters in New York. The security council vote scheduled for Monday has been postponed, even though the mission’s mandate expires on August 31, adding urgency to the negotiations.

Fourteen of the 15 security council members are agreed on the need to renew Unifil’s mandate, with the US the only holdout. France, as the security council penholder for the Unifil mandate – the country which will write up the decision – has successively proposed a variety of options that might be palatable to the US, but divisions in Washington remain. Some officials, such as the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, acknowledge Unifil’s importance, but the US has yet to agree to vote for a mandate renewal that extends beyond a year.

A recent draft resolution proposed a strategic review by March 2026 to assess the conditions for Unifil’s withdrawal. This called for Unifil to pull out no later than August 31, 2026. But currently the US is unwilling to link any withdrawal timeline to conditions on the ground and is insisting on a firm endpoint.

Israel’s political manoeuvring

Israel’s posture toward Unifil reflects a longstanding strategy of delegitimising the mission. During the 2024 war, the Israel Defense Forces obstructed peacekeepers’ attempts to rescue civilians and even targeted Unifil positions. Despite the November 27 ceasefire, Israel continues to occupy five positions inside Lebanese territory and is reinforcing them in direct violation of the agreement.

Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, recently commended the Lebanese government’s steps to disarm Hezbollah. He also promised that Israel would reciprocate by gradually reducing its presence in south Lebanon. It’s a statement that appears conciliatory – yet, by praising Lebanese efforts, Netanyahu risks casting the Lebanese government and LAF as collaborators, which would inflame political tensions inside Lebanon.

At the same time, the gesture functions as a diplomatic sleight of hand, giving Washington cover in the security council debates. It gives an impression that Israel is open to conciliation and compromise, while in reality reinforcing Israel’s determination for Unifil’s mission to be curtailed.

Israel’s persistent efforts to weaken Unifil are part of its current doctrine of privileging military solutions over diplomacy and political negotiation in south Lebanon. By predominantly using force against Hezbollah, Israel has generated retaliation. These flare-ups are then used as evidence by Israel that it is under constant threat and must act in self-defence. In this way, military action produces the very instability that is then invoked to justify further escalation. It’s a cycle of chaos that sidelines diplomacy, privileges military action and perpetuates conflict.

Why Unifil still matters

Amid these political manoeuvres, one core issue remains: Unifil remains crucial to regional stability. Dismantling the peacekeeping force now would strip away one of the last stabilising buffers in an increasingly fragile region. The mission provides an international spotlight on south Lebanon. Its presence, while imperfect, has prevented numerous flare-ups from spiralling into war.

Lebanon’s army remains weak. So a sudden Unifil withdrawal would create multiple risks – including the possibility of a surge in Hezbollah activity in the south. This increases the prospect of another direct conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, and another Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.

The Conversation

Chiara Ruffa receives funding from the Swedish Research Council, the Fulbright Commission and the European Commission

Vanessa Newby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. US and Israel push to end UN peacekeeping mandate in south Lebanon risks regional chaos – https://theconversation.com/us-and-israel-push-to-end-un-peacekeeping-mandate-in-south-lebanon-risks-regional-chaos-263927

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Droughts don’t just dry up water — they drain livelihoods and weaken local economies

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By S. Mehmet Ozsoy, Assistant Professor of Finance, Concordia University

Unlike hurricanes and floods, which arrive suddenly and tend to dominate headlines with dramatic images of wrecked homes and submerged towns, droughts are often overlooked by media, governments and markets because they unfold more slowly.

Their gradual toll on fields, reservoirs and rural communities tends to be overshadowed by flashier disasters, but their consequences are no less severe.

A drought is a shortage of precipitation — typically lasting a season or longer — that results in insufficient water availability for ecosystems, agriculture and human use.

As climate change accelerates, droughts are projected to become more frequent and intense, especially in dry regions. This makes it increasingly urgent to understand their complex impact on agriculture, water supplies and regional economies.

Droughts don’t just hurt farmers

Droughts barely register in financial markets, despite their widespread consequences. Yet research shows that droughts can slash food industry profits by increasing farming costs, disrupting supply chains and tightening profit margins.

Droughts hit utilities and agriculture hardest. Shrinking water supplies wilt crops and strain water providers. But the impact extends far beyond them: low river levels can stall hydropower production, pushing up electricity costs and affecting water-heavy industries like textiles and chemicals.

Shallow waterways can also delay or block barges carrying goods, which hikes shipping costs. These disruptions ripple outward, affecting everyone from factory workers to shoppers.

Yet markets often ignore these risks until damage becomes impossible to overlook. With climate change poised to make droughts more frequent and severe, this blind spot could pose growing risks to investors and the stability of food supply chains.

Banks reveal the economic toll of droughts

Climate shocks like droughts hit local economies hardest — especially small, private businesses. While researchers can access financial data for public companies, the finances of private firms are far more opaque, making it difficult to understand the local impact of droughts.

To address this gap, we studied how prolonged droughts affect the financial stability and loan performance of regional banks across the United States. The stability, or fragility, of these banks can sway the economy, as seen in the 2008-09 crisis.



Read more:
The window of opportunity to address increasing drought and expanding drylands is vanishing

By examining bank balance sheets, we traced the broader economic ripples of droughts and found that a two-year drought can have the same economic impact on a region as a one-percentage point increase in the unemployment rate.

Communities suffer when banks do

Smaller banks are closely tied to their communities and often lend locally — often within just five miles — making them especially vulnerable when droughts strike. As small firms struggle to repay loans in the wake of such disasters, banks see an increase in missed payments.

Our data shows that droughts disrupt entire communities as job losses and tight budgets create a domino effect throughout local economies.

Banks in drought-hit areas see lower profits and rising risks. Unpaid loans, or “non-performing loans,” spike not just for farmers but for homeowners, businesses and commercial properties.

When farm workers lose income from unplanted or failed crops, they may fall behind on mortgage payments, even if farms themselves are insured.

Missed mortgage payments signal household distress, while defaulted business loans hit farms, food producers and service providers like caterers as customer demand dries up. Reduced wages also means less spending at local restaurants, equipment stores and other small businesses.

Unlike hurricanes or floods — which are designated disasters by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency — droughts receive no such status.

Once a flood or hurricane is declared a federal disaster, U.S. federal agencies provide financial assistance to eligible households and businesses. FEMA offers several programs, including financial assistance for temporary housing, home repairs and the replacement of personal property.

FEMA also supports the Disaster Unemployment Assistance and the Dislocated Worker Grant program. In addition, the Small Business Administration provides long-term, low-interest loans to eligible businesses and some homeowners, while the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) offers administrative disaster-related tax relief.

Because droughts don’t have access to the same resources, banks and local economies are left to cope on their own instead of receiving emergency aid from FEMA. As a result, our research found that banks are more likely to close branches in drought-hit areas. These closures can make recovery even harder for local businesses left reeling from droughts as they lose vital loan access.

Diversification offers some protection

From banks reeling with unpaid loans to families struggling to make ends meet, the fallout from droughts is real and far-reaching. Droughts don’t just dry up water — they drain livelihoods and destabilize economies.

Larger banks and firms with operations across multiple states are better able to weather climate shocks. This diversification acts as a form of self-insurance, helping them absorb losses in one region while staying afloat in others.

This might explain why stock markets often ignore the risks posed by droughts. Large players are less exposed to local downturns. But smaller, more vulnerable businesses that are reliant on local stability don’t have the same buffer.

As these crises grow more common, markets, regulators and policymakers need to rethink how droughts are measured and mitigated before entire communities are left behind.

Regulators have begun to take some notice. Climate risks are now formally recognized as threats to financial stability by the Financial Stability Board, an international body that monitors the global financial system.

Still, recognition is only the first step. Without concrete action, droughts will continue to destabilize communities.

The Conversation

Erkan Yonder receives funding from Fonds de recherche du Québec (FRQ).

S. Mehmet Ozsoy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Droughts don’t just dry up water — they drain livelihoods and weaken local economies – https://theconversation.com/droughts-dont-just-dry-up-water-they-drain-livelihoods-and-weaken-local-economies-261140

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Lessons from the Incas: how llamas, terraces and trees could help the Andes survive climate change

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Chepstow-Lusty, Research Associate, Geography, University of Sussex

The Inca lived more sustainable lives in the Andes than anyone since. David Ionut / shutterstock

Many tropical glaciers in the Andes are expected to disappear in the next few decades. Their meltwater sustains millions of people, feeding crops in the dry season, supplying Peru’s capital Lima and other big cities, and even boosting the Amazon river. As glaciers vanish, floods and droughts are becoming more extreme.

But my new research with colleagues suggests solutions may lie in environmental knowledge that the Incas and their predecessors developed centuries ago.

In January 2010, record rainfall caused massive flooding in the Cusco region of Peru. Bridges were washed away, 25,000 people were left homeless and 80% of harvests were destroyed. The railway to Machu Picchu was cut off. Losses were estimated at US$230 million (£170m).

This disaster took place in the heart of what was the Inca Empire, which once spanned an area from what is today near the Colombian border down to central Chile. The Incas’ efficient storage systems, sophisticated road network and ecological management supported up to 14 million people before European conquest and colonisation.

So could some of this modern-day catastrophe have been avoided if the landscape still retained its natural tree cover – forests and high-altitude vegetation that slow water and reduce erosion?

A new paper in the journal Ambio offers a long-term perspective. I was part of a team of researchers from the University of Sussex, the International Potato Center in Lima and Cusco-based NGO Ecoan, who examined microfossils such as pollen in sediment cores from Lake Marcacocha, near Cusco. These act as an environmental archive, recording shifts in vegetation, farming and climate over centuries.

The evidence shows that from around the year 1100, during a period of global warming known as the Medieval Climatic Anomaly, Andean communities moved higher up into the mountains. They built terraces, irrigated slopes, and planted trees such as alder to make the soil more fertile and provide wood.

Alpaca
Alpaca evolved in the Andes and can live there sustainably.
Galyna Andrushko / shutterstock

Llamas and their cousins alpacas were vital as they were hardy, light-footed, and supplied wool, fuel and fertiliser. Their communal dung heaps even show up in the lake sediments, revealed by spikes in fossils of certain dung-eating mites that thrived when llama caravans were pastured nearby.

Together, these practices stabilised soils, reduced erosion, and allowed large populations to thrive in the Andes.

An ecological and social transformation

When the Spanish arrived in the 1530s, this balance was upended. New livestock – cattle, sheep and goats – trampled vegetation and eroded soils. Their free-ranging herds left waste across the landscape, unlike llamas and their easily-collectible dung.

At the same time, the Spaniards cut down forests for timber and charcoal, in contrast to the Inca who had imposed harsh penalties to protect their woodland resources. The 17th century Spanish pastor and chronicler, Bernabé Cobo, remarked that a Spanish household used as much fuel in one day as a native household would in an entire month.

The lake sediments record the ecological damage of the era: excess nutrients from dung, more erosion, and a collapse of the Inca’s sustainable land management.

This isn’t a simple story in which the Inca were perfect for the environment and the Spaniards entirely negative, but there are clear lessons to be learned. The indigenous people, normally pushed to poorer lands at high altitude, adapted to what pragmatically works.

In the Andes, many highland communities still support each other through deep-rooted traditions, involving collaboration and reciprocity. Some of the most promising climate solutions today build on this heritage.

Communities restoring Andean vegetation

One co-author of the paper, Cusco biologist Tino Aucca Chutas, founded the NGO Ecoan in 2000, to protect rare high-altitude Polylepis cloud forests. These gnarled, moss-covered trees capture water from clouds and release it slowly, making them vital for downstream water supply. Only small fragments of the original forests remain.

Gnarled, moss-covered trees.
Polylepis forest soak up moisture and release it slowly.
Ammit Jack / shutterstock

Through the regional movement Accion Andina, founded by Ecoan and non-profit organisation Global Forest Generation, 12 million Polylepis trees have been planted across the Andes. In 2023, Accion Andina was awarded the prestigious global Earthshot Prize. The ultimate goal is to fully restore the forests over the next century.

Another co-author, Graham Thiele of the International Potato Center in Lima, argues that native agroforestry – combining traditional crops, trees and llamas – should be part of a “second climate-smart agricultural revolution” in the Andes.

The Andes are at the sharp end of climate change. The glaciers are retreating, rainfall is becoming more erratic, and disasters like the Cusco floods will happen more often. But history shows societies have adapted before.

Inca-style terraces, cloud forests and llamas aren’t relics of the past – they are the tools required now, particularly vital with the glaciers soon gone. As South America faces a looming water crisis, the clock is ticking, and the lessons of the Inca may be more urgent than ever.

The Conversation

Alex Chepstow-Lusty has received funding from NERC, CNRS and the French Institute of Andean Studies.

– ref. Lessons from the Incas: how llamas, terraces and trees could help the Andes survive climate change – https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-the-incas-how-llamas-terraces-and-trees-could-help-the-andes-survive-climate-change-258148

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Our medieval murder maps reveal the surprising geography of violence in 14th-century English cities

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephanie Brown, Lecturer in Criminology, University of Hull

Bodyguard and queen kill King of Lydia. Illuminated manuscript of Cité de Dieu by Maître François (circa 1475). Author provided, CC BY-SA

A recent YouGov poll found that the word that Americans most associate with the middle ages is “violent”. Medieval towns may appear to be full of random violence, every alleyway a potential crime scene, every tavern brawl ending in bloodshed. But our recent research reveals a more complex, and in some ways familiar, reality.

In 14th-century London, York and Oxford, lethal violence clustered in a small number of hotspots, often no more than 200 or 300 metres long. Just as in modern cities, crime was not evenly spread but concentrated in certain streets and intersections where people, goods and status converged. The surprising difference is that in the middle ages, the busiest and wealthiest areas were often the most dangerous.

Stained glass showing Cain killing Abel
Cain Killing Abel, stained glass from York Minster’s great east window.
Author provided, CC BY-SA

Our Medieval Murder Map project uses coroners’ inquests (jury investigations into suspicious deaths) to pinpoint the locations of 355 homicides between 1296 and 1398. These records detail where the body was found, when the attack happened, the weapon used, and sometimes the quarrels, rivalries or insults that triggered it.

The cases from the coroners’ records were geocoded (turning a description of a place, like an address, into a pair of numbers, latitude and longitude, to show its exact position) using thematic maps provided by the scientific team of the Historic Towns Trust. What emerges is a vivid street-level picture of urban violence seven centuries ago.

The patterns are striking. Homicides clustered in markets, major thoroughfares, waterfronts and ceremonial spaces. These were areas of intense activity, where economic and social life intersected and where conflicts could be played out before a public audience.

Sundays were particularly deadly. After a morning of churchgoing, the afternoon often brought drinking, games and arguments. Violence peaked around curfew in the early evening.

A tale of three cities

The three cities we looked at differed sharply in their overall levels of violence. Oxford’s homicide rate was three to four times higher than that of London or York.

This was not random. The medieval university attracted young men aged between 14 and 21, many living far from home, armed and steeped in a culture of honour and group loyalty. Students organised themselves into “nations” based on their regional origins and quarrels between northerners and southerners regularly erupted into street battles.

Legal privileges for clerics, which included students, meant that they were often immune from prosecution under common law, creating a climate in which serious violence could flourish with little fear of punishment.

Each city’s hot-spots had their own character. In London, Westcheap, the commercial and ceremonial heart of the city, saw murders linked to guild rivalries, professional feuds and public revenge attacks. The bustling Thames Street waterfront, by contrast, was home to sudden quarrels among sailors and merchants, sometimes escalating from petty disputes into fatal encounters.

In York, one of the most dangerous spots was the main southern approach through Micklegate to Ouse Bridge. This was more than just a gateway into the town – it was a commercial and civic hub, lined with shops and inns, and the site of processions and public gatherings. Such a space naturally drew travellers, traders, and townspeople into close contact and into conflict.

Another York hot-spot was Stonegate, a prestigious street that formed part of the ceremonial route to York Minster. These patterns reflect York’s particular blend of commerce, ceremony and civic life, where spaces of wealth and display doubled as stages for rivalry, revenge and the public assertion of honour.

In Oxford, the concentration of killings in and around the university quarter reflected the constant tensions between students and townspeople and the factionalism within the student body itself. Clashes were often fuelled by drink, insults and a readiness to defend group honour with swords or knives.

The geography of medieval violence was shaped by visibility as much as opportunity. Busy streets and central markets offered the greatest number of potential rivals and bystanders and so were ideal stages for settling disputes in ways that preserved or enhanced reputation. Public killings could send a powerful message, whether to a rival guild, a hostile faction or the wider community.

In this sense, the urban logic of violence in the middle ages echoes patterns found in modern cities, where certain micro-locations consistently generate higher crime rates. The difference is that in medieval England, poverty was not the main driver. Poorer, peripheral neighbourhoods saw fewer homicide inquests, while affluent and prestigious districts often drew the most danger.

The Medieval Murder Map offers a rare opportunity to see the medieval city as its inhabitants experienced it: a landscape where the streets themselves shaped the rhythms of danger, and where wealth, power and proximity could be as deadly as poverty and neglect. Far from being random, medieval violence followed rules – and those rules were written in the geography of the city.

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The Conversation

Stephanie Brown has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).

Manuel Eisner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Our medieval murder maps reveal the surprising geography of violence in 14th-century English cities – https://theconversation.com/our-medieval-murder-maps-reveal-the-surprising-geography-of-violence-in-14th-century-english-cities-263380