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November 4, 2025

How China spreads authoritarian practices beyond its borders

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Giulia Sciorati, LSE Fellow in International Relations, London School of Economics and Political Science

China’s president, Xi Jinping, during the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, in 2016. Gil Corzo / Shutterstock

Protests erupted in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, in October 2020 following disputed parliamentary elections. Only four political parties out of 16 had passed the threshold for entry into parliament. Three of these had close ties to the country’s then-president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov.

Kyrgyzstan’s powerful neighbour, China, responded to the unrest with restraint – but in a way that implied democracy can cause political upheaval. Hua Chunying, spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said: “China sincerely hopes that all parties in Kyrgyzstan can resolve the issue according to law through dialogue and consultation, and push for stability as soon as possible”.

China adopted a different tone when Kazakhstan’s government responded violently to civil unrest in early 2022. It endorsed the Kazakh president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, repeating his claims that “terrorists trained abroad” were responsible for the unrest. Beijing praised Tokayev’s firm response, which left hundreds of people dead.

Why did China, confronted with two uprisings in neighbouring countries, react cautiously in one case and assertively in the other? As my recently published research shows, the answer points to a broader pattern in the promotion of authoritarian governance in the world today.

Researchers tend to assume that authoritarian regimes seek to export a coherent ideological model, like how the Soviet Union once promoted communism. The Soviet Union declared the aim of advancing communism abroad during the cold war, presenting one-party rule and central planning as a model for sympathetic regimes to adopt.

But few autocracies nowadays have a common ideological model to advance. Repressive regimes like the one in Beijing instead look to normalise autocratic practices elsewhere by presenting them as reasonable solutions to pressing governance challenges.

I call this “autocracy commercialisation”. Just as products are marketed differently depending on the consumer, China encourages autocratic practices in different ways that are tailored to local conditions.

Different approaches

The Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan examples illustrate this dynamic. Since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Kyrgyzstan was for many years considered the most democratic country in central Asia. It had an active political opposition, as well as a vibrant civil society and independent media outlets.

Here, Beijing has relied on what I describe in my research as a “defensive logic”. This has seen it present autocratic practices to Kyrgyzstan’s political leaders as a possible bulwark against democratic volatility. These practices have ultimately been accepted, and Kyrgyzstan has further descended towards authoritarianism.

During the unrest in 2020, Chinese officials and state media repeatedly warned that continued political turmoil could undermine Kyrgyzstan’s development. They urged all parties to resolve issues swiftly “through dialogue and consultation”. Through these claims, Beijing presented stability as the highest political good and implied that elections – and, by extension, participatory democracy – can lead to chaos.

Following the protests, the electoral authorities in Kyrgyzstan annulled the results of the elections. Jeenbekov accused “political forces” of trying to seize power illegally and subsequently resigned. He told the BBC he was ready to hand over “responsibility to strong leaders”.

A nationalist politician called Sadyr Zhaparov rapidly consolidated power in Kyrgyzstan after Jeenbekov’s resignation. He first declared himself acting president before being officially elected several months later in a vote criticised for lacking genuine competition.

China swiftly recognised his government, treating it as a return to order after a period of instability. In 2024, Kyrgyzstan then put forward new laws to give more power to governing authorities and curb dissent. Media freedoms have also narrowed under Zhaparov’s rule and civil society space has shrunk.

A group of riot police during protests in Almaty. — The Kazakh authorities cracked down violently on protests in 2022.
Vladimir Tretyakov / Shutterstock

Kazakhstan shows a different picture – demonstrating what I call an “affirmative logic”. When protests over fuel prices escalated into nationwide unrest in January 2022, Chinese officials aligned themselves with the government’s account of events. They emphasised terrorism and foreign interference as the root causes.

China not only fully supported Tokayev and praised his leadership. It also highlighted the stabilising roles of regional security organisations such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which sent troops to Kazakhstan to help tackle the protests, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Autocracy was framed affirmatively by Beijing as the guarantor of order.

Kazakhstan has subsequently continued along its authoritarian path. In April 2024, for instance, a new media law came into effect that gave the ministry of information powers to block accreditation of foreign media and their representatives if they deem them as posing a threat to national security.

These two cases show how China adapts its narratives to different contexts. This adaptability is powerful. By promoting autocracy as a flexible and context-sensitive practice, regimes such as the one in Beijing render it legitimate and, at times, preferable to any other.

Recognising this strategy is essential for those concerned with the global clash between democracy and authoritarianism. It helps explain why autocracy persists across diverse settings and why its appeal may be broader than many people suggest.

Giulia Sciorati does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How China spreads authoritarian practices beyond its borders – https://theconversation.com/how-china-spreads-authoritarian-practices-beyond-its-borders-266543

November 4, 2025

How the French philosopher Jean Baudrillard predicted today’s AI 30 years before ChatGPT

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Bran Nicol, Professor of English, University of Surrey

Some writers appear so accurate in their assessment of where society and technology is taking us that they have attracted the label “prophet”. Think of J. G. Ballard, Octavia E. Butler, Marshall McLuhan, or Donna Haraway.

One of the most important members of this enlightened club is the philosopher Jean Baudrillard – even though his reputation over the past couple of decades has diminished to an association with a now bygone era when fellow French theorists such as Roland Barthes and Jacques Derrida reigned supreme.

In writing our new biography of Baudrillard, however, we have been reminded just how prescient his predictions about modern technology and its effects have turned out to be. Especially insightful is his understanding of digital culture and AI – presented over 30 years before the launch of ChatGPT.

Back in the 1980s, cutting-edge communication technology involved devices which seem obsolete to us now: answering machines, fax machines, and (in France) Minitel, an interactive online service that predated the internet. But Baudrillard’s genius lay in foreseeing what these relatively rudimentary devices suggested about likely future uses of technology.

In the late 1970s, he had begun to develop a highly original theory of information and communication. This ramped up following the publication of his book Simulacra and Simulation in 1981 (the book which influenced the 1999 movie The Matrix).

In 1986 Baudrillard was noting that in society “the scene and the mirror have given way to a screen and a network”. He predicted the use of the smartphone, foreseeing each person in control of a machine which would isolate them “in a position of perfect sovereignty”, like “an astronaut in a bubble”. Such insights helped him go on to devise perhaps his most famous concept: the theory that we were stepping into the era of “hyperreality”.

The Matrix was partly inspired by Baudrillard’s work.

In the 1990s, Baudrillard turned his attention to the effects of AI, in ways which help us grasp its pervasive rise in our age, and the gradual vanishing of reality that we now face more acutely with each passing day.

To readers of Baudrillard, the recent case of the AI “actor” Tilly Norwood, an apparently logical step in the development of simulations and other deepfakes, seems entirely in keeping with his view of the hyperreal world.

Baudrillard considered AI a prosthetic, the mental equivalent of artificial limbs, heart valves, contact lenses or surgical beauty enhancements. As he explains in his books The Transparency of Evil (1990) and The Perfect Crime (1995) its job is to make us think better – or to do our thinking for us.

But he was convinced that all it really does is enable us to experience the “spectacle of thought” rather than engaging in thought itself. Doing so means we can put off thinking forever. And, for Baudrillard, it followed that immersing ourselves in AI equated to giving up our freedom.

This is why Baudrillard thought digital culture hastened the “disappearance” of human beings. He didn’t mean literally, nor that we would become forcibly enslaved the way people are in The Matrix. Instead, outsourcing our intelligence to the machine meant that we “exorcise” our humanness.

Ultimately, though, he knew that the danger of sacrificing our humanness to a machine is not created by the technology itself, but how we relate to it. We are increasingly turning to large language models like ChatGPT to make decisions for us, as if the interface is an oracle or a personal advisor.

The worst effects of this dependence are when people fall in love with an AI, experience AI-induced psychosis, or are encouraged to kill themselves by a chatbot.

No doubt the humanised presentation of AI chatbots, the choice of a name like Claude or its presentation as a “companion” doesn’t help. But Baudrillard felt the problem was not so much the technology itself as our willingness to cede reality to it.

Falling in love with an AI avatar or surrendering decision-making to it is a human flaw not a machine flaw. But it’s essentially the same thing. The increasing bizarreness of Elon Musk’s bot Grok’s behaviour can be explained by the fact that it has real-time access to information (opinions, claims, conspiracies) circulating on X, the platform into which it is integrated.

Just as human beings are being shaped by our engagement with AI, so AI is being transformed by its users. The technological developments of the 1990s, Baudrillard thought, meant the question “am I human or machine?” was already becoming impossible to answer.

He was always confident, however, that there was one distinction which would remain in place. AI could never take pleasure in its operations the way the human being – in love, music, or sport, for example – can enjoy going through the motions of being human. But this is one prediction which may yet be proved wrong. “I may be AI-generated”, Tilly Norwood declared in the Facebook post which introduced her to the public, “but I feel real emotions”.

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The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How the French philosopher Jean Baudrillard predicted today’s AI 30 years before ChatGPT – https://theconversation.com/how-the-french-philosopher-jean-baudrillard-predicted-todays-ai-30-years-before-chatgpt-267372

November 4, 2025

Is it ok for politicians to use AI? Survey shows where the public draws the line

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Steven David Pickering, Honorary Professor, International Relations, Brunel University of London

New survey evidence from the UK and Japan shows people are open to MPs using AI as a tool, but deeply resistant to handing over democratic decisions to machines.

Artificial intelligence is creeping into every corner of life and is beginning to become a feature of politics. Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat recently criticised colleagues for using ChatGPT to draft their parliamentary speeches, warning that elected representatives should not outsource their judgment to machines. His comments capture a wider unease. Should AI have a place in democratic decision-making?

Supporters of AI in parliament argue it could help MPs cope with the flood of legislation, public submissions and policy documents they have to deal with in their work. But critics worry that over-reliance on AI may undermine accountability and public trust.

Tom Tugendhat speaking in parliament. — Tom Tugendhat is against MPs using AI to write speeches.
FLickr/UK Parliament, CC BY-NC-ND

In our new research, our TrustTracker team surveyed people in the UK and Japan to see where they drew the line on the use of AI among the people who represent them. They were cautiously accepting but were far more comfortable with politicians using AI as a source of advice but not as a replacement for them when making decisions.

In the UK, almost half of our 990 respondents said they did not support at all the idea of MPs even using AI for support. And nearly four in five rejected outright the notion of AI or robots taking decisions in place of parliamentarians.

Our 2,117 Japanese respondents were slightly more open, which we may expect, as Japan has considerable experience of automation and robotics. But they too expressed strong opposition to the idea of delegating decisions to the robots. Support was higher for assistance, but was still cautious.

Younger men were consistently more supportive of AI in politics. Older people and women are more sceptical. And we found that trust matters. People who trust their government are more willing to back AI in supporting MPs.

Our results were also heavily reflective of our participants’ broader attitudes towards AI. People who see AI as beneficial, and who feel confident in using it, were much more supportive. Those who fear AI were strongly opposed.

Curiously, ideology also plays a role, but in opposing ways. In the UK, people on the political right are more supportive of AI in parliament. In Japan, it is people on the left who express more openness.

Public tolerance for the use of AI in politics exists, but with limits. Citizens want their representatives to use new tools wisely. They do not want to hand over the reins to machines.

That distinction between assistance and delegation is key. AI can make parliaments more efficient, helping MPs sift through evidence, draft better questions, or simulate the outcomes of policy choices. But if citizens feel that AI is replacing human judgment, support evaporates.

For parliaments, which are institutions that depend on trust and legitimacy, this is a red flag. Public wariness could quickly turn into backlash if reforms outpace public consent.

National contrasts

The cross-national comparison is interesting. Japan has a cultural openness to robotics and automation. Concepts like Society 5.0 frame AI as part of a positive national future. Yet even here, people draw a line when it comes to political decision-making. In the UK, debates tend to be framed in terms of ethics and accountability. British respondents are generally more cautious, but also more polarised by ideology.

Taken together, these cases show that public opinion does not simply mirror cultural stereotypes. Support is conditional, context-specific, and tied to wider trust in politics.

AI is coming to politics whether we like it or not. Used carefully, it could help parliaments work better, faster and more transparently. Used carelessly, it could erode trust and legitimacy at the heart of democracy. In other words: AI can advise, but it cannot rule.

Steven David Pickering receives funding from the ESRC (grant reference ES/W011913/1) and the JSPS (grant reference JPJSJRP 20211704).

– ref. Is it ok for politicians to use AI? Survey shows where the public draws the line – https://theconversation.com/is-it-ok-for-politicians-to-use-ai-survey-shows-where-the-public-draws-the-line-268728

November 4, 2025

Problems regulating emotions during pregnancy linked with perinatal depression – new research

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Franziska Weinmar, PhD Candidate, Women’s Mental Health & Brain Function, University of Tübingen

This latest research may make it possible to identify those more vulnerable to perinatal depression. AnnaStills/ Shutterstock

Around one in five mothers experience perinatal depression. This condition involves depressive episodes during pregnancy or just after birth – often with lasting effects on both mother and child.

Yet despite its prevalence, identifying who is at risk of experiencing perinatal depression remains one of the greatest challenges in maternal health. More than half of cases go undetected. This means many women with signs of the condition receive no treatment at all.

But new research published by my colleagues and me in the journal Nature Mental Health shows that it may be possible to identify a mother’s vulnerability to perinatal depressive symptoms as early as the second trimester.

To conduct our study, we used data from over 600 women living in Sweden who were taking part in the Mom2B study. This large national project tracks perinatal mental health using a smartphone app.

We looked at whether the ability to regulate emotions in pregnancy is related to depressive symptoms through the perinatal period.

Previous studies have suggested that emotion regulation is crucial for maternal mental health. Difficulties managing emotions has been linked to higher stress and poor sleep, and greater risk of depression and anxiety after birth.

In the second trimester, participants completed a short questionnaire. This assessed how well they understood and accepted their emotions, controlled impulses and stay focused on goals when upset. It also looked at whether or not they used effective strategies to manage and recover from emotional distress.

We then followed up with these women at seven different points from mid-pregnancy up to one year after birth.

At each stage we assessed their depressive symptoms using the Edinburgh postnatal depression scale, a standard clinical screening measure. We wanted to know whether self-reported difficulties with emotion regulation during pregnancy could help identify those most likely to experience perinatal depression.

Our results showed that this was indeed the case. Women who reported greater difficulty regulating their emotions in the second trimester experienced higher depressive symptoms throughout pregnancy and up to six months after giving birth.

These associations held true even after accounting for other known risk factors of perinatal depression – such as previous depressive episodes, psychological resilience, previous pregnancy loss, fear of childbirth and negative birth experience.

Most striking was that women who later developed depressive symptoms in the postnatal period (the time after childbirth) had already reported greater difficulties regulating their emotions during pregnancy, that is, long before any symptoms appeared.

This suggests that self-reported problems with emotion regulation could serve as an early marker of a mother’s vulnerability for perinatal depression. These findings could be used to identify at-risk women before symptoms occur.

Emotion regulation

Emotion regulation is a core psychological skill. It involves being able to recognise, understand and manage emotions effectively. But it isn’t only about suppressing feelings. It’s about being able to respond flexibly and constructively to life’s challenges.

This skill is essential for stress management, healthy relationships and overall wellbeing. Research also shows that emotion regulation plays a role in many mental health conditions, including anxiety and depression.

Pregnancy is a profound transition with hormonal shifts, physical changes and, for some, worries about birth and new responsibilities. For women who already find it hard to regulate emotions, these challenges can heighten vulnerability to depression.

A concerned pregnant woman speaks with her doctor or nurse, who holds a clipboard. — Self-reported problems with emotion regulation could help identify at-risk woman before perinatal depression symptoms occur.
PeopleImages/ Shutterstock

Fortunately, emotion regulation is not a fixed trait but a skill that can be strengthened. Approaches such as cognitive behavioural therapy and mindfulness training have been shown to improve emotion regulation. These therapies help people become more aware of their emotions, recognise unhelpful thought patterns and respond to stress with greater calm and flexibility.

These approaches have also been adapted for pregnant women. They focus on incorporating information about parent-infant bonding and teaching emotional coping skills during pregnancy and early parenthood. Supporting these skills in expectant mothers could offer a valuable way to prevent depressive symptoms before they develop.

Perinatal depression screening

Despite the high prevalence of perinatal depression, routine screening is not standard practice in many countries. Even where screening exists, it typically focuses on depressive symptoms that have already emerged – often after childbirth, when the window for early prevention has passed.

Our study provides strong evidence that emotion regulation is linked to perinatal depressive symptoms. Our research has also shown that this link appears early – long before signs of distress may be noticed.

The findings also highlight how simple questionnaires, which only take a few minutes to complete, could be used to effectively identify those most at risk. This also means that doctors and nurses would be able to offer targeted support to those women most at risk before their symptoms develop.

Future research will need to test how best to implement emotion regulation screenings into antenatal care. It should also aim to identify which interventions work best to strengthen emotional resilience.

Perinatal depression can affect bonding and child development. Being able to identify those most at risk of the condition and intervene early would have long-term wellbeing benefits for both mother and child. By recognising the importance of emotion regulation, we can take a meaningful step toward earlier detection, effective prevention and healthier beginnings for families.

Franziska Weinmar is associated to the University of Tübingen, Germany and Uppsala University, Sweden. She receives funding from the German Research Foundation (DFG) as part of the International Research Training Group “Women’s Mental Health Across the Reproductive Years” (DFG, IRTG2804).

– ref. Problems regulating emotions during pregnancy linked with perinatal depression – new research – https://theconversation.com/problems-regulating-emotions-during-pregnancy-linked-with-perinatal-depression-new-research-268620

November 4, 2025

Crimes contre l’environnement dans la guerre en Ukraine : que dit le droit ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Nicolas Ligneul, Maitre de Conférences en Droit Public (HDR) à la Faculté de Droit, Université Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne (UPEC)

Les atteintes à l’environnement sont multiples dans le cadre de la guerre en Ukraine. Peuvent-elles susciter des poursuites – et des indemnisations – en tant que telles ? Le droit international comporte de nombreuses dispositions qui permettent de répondre à cette question.

Dès l’été 2022, l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE) et le Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement (PNUE) ont mis en évidence les dommages considérables subis par l’Ukraine du fait de l’invasion à grande échelle de son territoire par la Russie qui avait été lancée quelques mois plus tôt.

Les dommages infligés à l’environnement étaient alors déjà très nombreux et ont encore nettement augmenté depuis. Ces rapports pointaient notamment les nombreuses contaminations aux produits chimiques en raison du pilonnage par l’armée russe des installations industrielles ; les dommages causés aux infrastructures de fourniture d’eau ; la destruction des forêts en raison des opérations ; la production de déchets militaires lourds ; ou encore la pollution de l’air, de l’eau et du sol.

Comme tous les conflits de haute intensité, la guerre en Ukraine a donc produit d’importants dommages environnementaux.

Dommages intentionnels causés à l’environnement

Lors de sa 62^e session plénière en mars 2025, le Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du Climat (Giec) a rappelé le principe selon lequel l’émetteur du carbone doit être tenu pour responsable des dommages qu’il cause.

Appliqué à la guerre en Ukraine, ce principe, qui est reconnu par de nombreux États et par le Giec, devrait conduire à une indemnisation par la Russie des dommages environnementaux observés en Ukraine du fait de la guerre.

Les dommages collatéraux provoqués à l’environnement en Ukraine à la suite de l’invasion russe sont donc des dommages de guerre et devraient être indemnisés à ce titre (pour une analyse générale des rapports entre le droit de la guerre et le développement durable, cf. Nicolas Ligneul, « Guerre et développement durable, la perspective du juriste », in le Développement durable, J.-L. Bischoff et C. Vivier Le Got (dir.), Connaissances et Savoirs, Paris, 2025).

Depuis 2022, ces dommages environnementaux ont changé de nature. Aujourd’hui, il ne s’agit plus de dégâts collatéraux accidentels. De nombreux dommages environnementaux constatés en Ukraine ont été délibérément infligés par la Russie. Mais bien qu’intentionnels, certains de ces dommages ne sont pas susceptibles d’être qualifiés de crimes de guerre, alors que d’autres peuvent donner lieu à des poursuites au nom du droit des conflits armés.

En conduisant des opérations militaires sur le territoire de zones protégées pour la défense de l’environnement, l’armée russe a intentionnellement causé des dommages environnementaux. À droit constant, si ces dommages sont justifiés par une opération militaire, ils ne sont pas constitutifs de crimes de guerre du point de vue du statut de Rome ou des conventions de Genève.

Par exemple, transformer la centrale nucléaire de Zaporijia en camp militaire comme l’a fait la Russie, et plus généralement miner ou bombarder des centrales nucléaires ne constituent pas des crimes de guerre, même si ces attitudes sont gravement irresponsables et dangereuses.

Les dommages environnementaux engendrés par ces comportements ne seront probablement jamais indemnisés.

Les instruments internationaux d’indemnisation des dommages environnementaux à l’occasion des conflits armés sont très insuffisants. Ainsi, la convention du 10 décembre 1976 relative à l’interdiction d’utiliser des techniques de modification de l’environnement à des fins militaires ou toutes autres fins hostiles prévoit la possibilité de déposer une plainte devant le Conseil de Sécurité de l’ONU si un État a commis une atteinte à l’environnement à des fins militaires. Bien qu’elle ait été ratifiée par l’Union soviétique (et est donc censée être appliquée par la Russie, qui a repris les engagements juridiques de l’URSS) puis par l’Ukraine une fois celle-ci devenue indépendante, sa portée est si limitée qu’elle ne risque pas d’avoir une influence quelconque sur les atteintes environnementales constatées en Ukraine.

C’est donc le droit commun des dommages de guerre ou le droit ukrainien, lequel reconnaît la qualification d’écocide, qu’il faut mobiliser pour une telle indemnisation. Or, le droit ukrainien ne risque pas d’être imposé aux autorités russes.

Quant au régime des dommages de guerre, face à l’ampleur des dégâts, il ne permettra probablement pas de financer une reconstruction verte pourtant promue par les organisations internationales. C’est la raison pour laquelle les pouvoirs publics ukrainiens et de nombreuses organisations non gouvernementales ont tenté de faire reconnaître un « écocide » en droit international et de créer un régime juridique spécifique d’indemnisation. À ce jour, ce projet n’a pas abouti.

Pour qu’il y ait une justice environnementale lors du règlement de la guerre en Ukraine, il faudra donc avoir recours aux qualifications de crimes de guerre et de crimes contre l’humanité. C’est donc vers les dommages environnementaux causés intentionnellement par la Russie susceptibles d’être qualifiés de crimes de guerre ou de crimes contre l’humanité qu’il faut se tourner.

La Cour pénale internationale peut-elle agir ?

Certaines atteintes à l’environnement pourraient correspondre à la définition des crimes de guerre et des crimes contre l’humanité.

Le plus souvent, les accords environnementaux ne contiennent pas de réserves relatives à la guerre. Or, l’environnement naturel bénéficie d’une protection générale, comme tous les biens civils. Il bénéficie aussi d’une protection spéciale (Cf. articles 54 à 56 du Protocole additionnel n°1 aux conventions de Genève du 12 août 1949 relatif à la protection des victimes des conflits armés internationaux). Le droit international protège ainsi les ouvrages et installations contenant des « forces dangereuses », à savoir les barrages, les digues et les centrales nucléaires de production d’énergie électrique – des installations dont la destruction causerait un préjudice important à la population civile.

Lorsque des installations ou ouvrages contenant des forces dangereuses sont présentes sur les théâtres d’opérations ou à proximité, elles bénéficient d’une protection prévue par le droit international conventionnel et coutumier. Elles ne peuvent pas être détruites. Cela causerait trop de risques pour la population et pour l’environnement. La protection de ces installations est toutefois limitée à l’hypothèse où ces ouvrages ne sont pas utilisés à des fins militaires. Dans le cas contraire, leur attaque devient conforme au droit de la guerre, à condition d’être strictement nécessaire et proportionnée.

Ainsi, lorsque l’armée russe a détruit le barrage de Kakhovka, ou bombardé la centrale nucléaire de Tchernobyl, elle a porté atteinte à la protection spéciale reconnue par le droit international.

La violation de la protection spéciale est susceptible d’être qualifiée de crime de guerre. De même, si les autorités d’un pays belligérant décident de bombarder les infrastructures énergétiques de son ennemi dans un plan d’ensemble pour faire mourir de froid une population entière, l’attaque peut être constitutive d’un crime de guerre ou d’un crime contre l’humanité.

C’est la raison pour laquelle une procédure a été introduite à l’encontre de plusieurs responsables russes sur ce fondement à la Cour pénale internationale (CPI). La CPI permettra peut-être de condamner les auteurs de ces crimes, mais la pratique de l’indemnisation des victimes des crimes de guerre et l’absence évidente de prise de conscience de ces phénomènes par les États occidentaux font craindre que l’indemnisation du dommage environnemental soit très insuffisante.

Nicolas Ligneul ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Crimes contre l’environnement dans la guerre en Ukraine : que dit le droit ? – https://theconversation.com/crimes-contre-lenvironnement-dans-la-guerre-en-ukraine-que-dit-le-droit-267066

November 4, 2025

I’m a criminologist and grieving aunt. Here’s why Ottawa’s bail reform won’t make Canada safer

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Amy Fitzgerald, Professor, Department of Sociology, Anthropology and Criminology, University of Windsor

The federal government has announced it’s introducing legislation to make bail more difficult to secure, along with lengthening sentences for certain offences.

These actions are intended to make Canadians feel safer, which makes sense politically. But does it make sense practically?

Invoking the term “bail reform” has been politically strategic for politicians at both provincial and federal levels.

As I explain to my criminology students, “tough on crime” rhetoric has long been useful for garnering political support, while more nuanced examinations of the realities of crime and what could and should be done to reduce it struggle to gain traction.

The federal government’s new bail reform legislation would ensure that more people are incarcerated and for longer periods of time. As someone who lost a close relative to the prison system while he was awaiting a court appearance, I know how problematic this approach will be.

There’s also been no mention of corresponding investments in federal and provincial corrections systems that would enable them to keep up with this looming increase in prison populations.

In a news release, the federal government said:

“[The proposed changes] will only be effective if provincial and territorial governments do their part in supporting their implementation. This includes properly managing and resourcing the administration of justice, including police and Crown attorneys under their jurisdiction, bail courts, bail supervision programs, provincial courts, jails and victim services. The federal government looks forward to continuing to work with provincial and territorial governments to ensure the proper functioning of the criminal justice system.”

If meaningful plans are not in place, then the likely default will be reactionary responses, at best, at the provincial/territorial level.

Two risk areas

I am most concerned that failure to rectify the correctional status quo will compromise safety, both inside and outside of these facilities, in two critical ways.

First, larger prison populations without increases in programming will result in reduced access to the programming that does exist. This can be expected to increase the risk of recidivism, which is when people reoffend after they’re released.

Most people who are incarcerated will be released eventually. Therefore, the conditions inside these facilities in effect spill over into the community. With this in mind, correctional programming that helps inmates deal with trauma, addiction and provides meaningful vocational training should be enhanced.

Investing in such programming may not be as attractive as the rhetoric of bail reform, lengthening sentences and hiring more RCMP officers, but it’s essential if reducing the risk of reoffending — in other words, keeping Canadians safe — is truly an objective.

Second, there are significant risks associated with incarceration, particularly among those on remand — people not convicted and awaiting trial, mostly for non-violent charges. People on remand currently comprise approximately two-thirds of the population in provincial jails; that number is nearly 80 per cent in Ontario. The proposed bail reform would undoubtedly increase those numbers.

In 2021, my 21-year-old nephew was criminally charged and spent nine days on remand awaiting his day in court to explain why he was not guilty. He never got his day in court because he died in jail of drug toxicity caused by fentanyl. Sadly, what happened to him wasn’t an anomaly.

The problem is so acute that Ontario’s Chief Coroner initiated a formal death review to examine the 192 deaths in Ontario custodial facilities from 2014 through 2021. In their report, An Obligation to Prevent, the expert panel noted a dramatic increase in deaths across those years, and in each year, the vast majority of deaths were among those on remand — most attributable to accidental drug toxicity.

Dying in custody

Fentanyl has made the pervasive problem of contraband entering custodial facilities particularly hazardous, both for those in prison and staff. This hazard is illustrated by the finding in the report that people in Ontario jails have a greater chance of dying while there than in the community.

The increased likelihood is significant; for instance, those who are 25 to 34 years of age are approximately seven times more likely to die while in custody than in the community. People like my nephew, who were not using fentanyl prior to incarceration, are at greatest risk of dying from the drug because they do not have a built-up tolerance.

This troubling situation was summed up by the Chief Coroner’s expert panel as follows:

“The panel has determined that over recent years, these conditions have significantly decreased the safety for persons-in-custody. They have also led to alarming deteriorations in the safety, wellness and career satisfaction for the dedicated individuals who work within the current environment of custodial corrections.”

The panel accordingly made 18 recommendations to improve the safety inside Ontario jails. Yet it was evident during the inquest into my nephew’s death, held in September, that acting on these recommendations is very much a work in progress, to put it generously.

The jury at the inquest into my nephew’s death issued 23 additional recommendations. These recommendations will be added to the many others that have resulted from inquests into inmate deaths.

Investments are essential

Canadians should therefore be aware that there are real risks to the federal government’s legislative proposals. To mitigate these risks, there must be significant investments by the federal and provincial/territorial governments to ensure:

Access to effective, evidence-based correctional programs that address the causes of reoffending and keep up with the growing prison population;
Improved safety in custodial facilities, with a particular focus on addressing increasingly lethal contraband that poses serious threats not only to those who are serving sentences, but also to those on remand and prison staff;
Urgent action to address the many unresolved recommendations to improve conditions and safety. Failure to do so will result in even less access to programming than currently exists, which will actually make it more challenging to reduce the risk of reoffending, and more people, like my nephew, will die while in custody.

Without these investments, the federal government’s proposed legislation can be expected to shift the correctional status quo in the country into a state of crisis, if it is not there already. In short, the legislation would reduce, not enhance, safety and justice.

Amy Fitzgerald receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

– ref. I’m a criminologist and grieving aunt. Here’s why Ottawa’s bail reform won’t make Canada safer – https://theconversation.com/im-a-criminologist-and-grieving-aunt-heres-why-ottawas-bail-reform-wont-make-canada-safer-268639

November 4, 2025

How AI is challenging the credibility of some online courses

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Mohammed Estaiteyeh, Assistant Professor of Digital Pedagogies and Technology Literacies, Faculty of Education, Brock University

Distance learning far precedes the digital age. Before online courses, people relied on print materials (and later radio and other technologies) to support formal education when the teacher and learner were physically separated.

Today, there are varied ways of supporting distance learning with digital communication. With “asynchronous” online courses, teaching does not occur live. Students access course materials on the learning management system and complete assignments at their own pace. This allows flexibility across time zones and work schedules and affords accessible learning.

Nevertheless, some researchers have raised concerns regarding the quality and student outcomes associated with asynchronous online courses. As well, generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has exposed fundamental challenges to this mode of delivery.

While GenAI poses serious challenges to academic integrity in many formats of learning, including synchronous online and in-person learning, asynchronous courses face the most acute risk. Without real-time interaction or time constraints, students can use AI undetected while instructors never observe their thinking processes.

Compromised learning models

Asynchronous courses have long relied on conventional assessments: discussion board posts, written reflections, essay assignments and pre-recorded videos. These models in asynchronous assessment are now compromised. Distinguishing AI-generated content from human-written text has become increasingly difficult.

Text discussions and reflections present the highest substitution risk. GenAI can generate personalized reflective posts and discussion replies rapidly, complete with a polished academic tone. An instructor may spend hours responding to these contributions yet gain little evidence about who actually learned and produced the material.

AI agents like ChatGPT’s Atlas browser can now navigate course sites, consume materials and complete some assignments with minimal student intervention — if any.

In written assignments, requiring precise citations from assigned course materials may seem like a safeguard. However, AI-enhanced tools can easily meet such requirements. This approach provides false security and fails to address underlying problems, including authorship with integrity in an AI world.

Students can be asked to provide time-stamped drafts, version history and checkpoints to document their process. But these can be easily fabricated — while instructors become overloaded with policing rather than focusing on students’ learning and progress.

AI-generated infographics and videos are also becoming hard to distinguish from human-made ones.

Detectors, remote proctoring not solutions

AI detectors cannot solve the problem. Research suggests detection tools produce false positive rates far higher than advertised, with disproportionate harm to neurodivergent and second-language learners. Several universities now explicitly advise against using detection software as evidence of academic misconduct.

Remote proctoring is intrusive and raises serious ethical, equity, privacy and reliability concerns. Students requiring accommodations, whether for disabilities, inadequate technology or lack of private space, must be granted leniency that undermines the system’s purpose, rendering it unsustainable while diverting instructors away from their educational mission.

These mounting challenges are neither hypothetical nor distant. Without meaningful intervention, institutions risk credentialing students who have not demonstrably engaged with course content, thereby undermining the integrity of academic credentials.

Two less-than-ideal strategies

Genuine protection against AI substitution requires approaches that fundamentally alter how instructors deliver asynchronous courses. Two strategies that somewhat meet this threshold are:

1) Short oral examinations can be scheduled for major assignments or throughout a term. While not without limitations, these conversations verify authorship and assess the depth of understanding.

2) Experiential learning components with external verification: Students can apply course concepts to real-world settings and include brief attestations from workplace supervisors, community partners or other external stakeholders in their capstone assignments that will be graded by course instructors. Combined with short oral examinations, this approach would deter offloading all learning to AI and augment asynchronous coursework with practical components.

However, assessment strategies alone cannot solve the authenticity crisis.

Rethinking program design

The Community of Inquiry framework, a tool for conceptualizing online learning, identifies three essential elements for effective online learning: social presence (students engage authentically), cognitive presence (students construct understanding through inquiry) and teaching presence (instructors facilitate learning).

GenAI threatens all three of these elements: it can simulate social engagement through generated posts, substitute for cognitive work and force instructors to focus on policing rather than teaching.

Institutions must evaluate whether their asynchronous programs can maintain these elements given GenAI capabilities.

Confronting an uncomfortable reality

Institutions and educators must be honest about limitations. Few strategies provide genuine protection against AI substitution; most merely create friction that determined students can overcome. The recommended approaches named above require synchronous elements or external verification that fundamentally alter asynchronous delivery.

Implementation of these imperfect solutions requires genuine institutional commitment, resources and policy support. Institutions now face a choice: invest substantially in what is required to restore some degree of assessment authenticity or acknowledge that asynchronous programs (as currently structured) cannot credibly assure learning outcomes.

Band-aid solutions and deflection of responsibility to instructors will only deepen the credentialing crisis. In the absence of robust institutional efforts, asynchronous programs risk becoming credential mills in all but name. The question is not whether institutions can afford to act, but whether they can afford not to.

Rahul Kumar received funding from SSHRC in the past.

Mohammed Estaiteyeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How AI is challenging the credibility of some online courses – https://theconversation.com/how-ai-is-challenging-the-credibility-of-some-online-courses-264851

November 4, 2025

Taylor Swift and the performative ambiguity of ‘The Life of a Showgirl’

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jessalynn Keller, Associate Professor in Critical Media Studies, University of Calgary

On Oct. 3, pop superstar and cultural icon Taylor Swift released her 12th studio album, The Life of a Showgirl, to much public anticipation. But when the reviews came in, they were mixed.

While Rolling Stone feted the album as featuring “new, exciting sonic turns,” The Guardian slammed it as “dull razzle-dazzle from a star who seems frazzled.”

Likewise, Swifties had varied reactions. While some danced to the catchy chorus of “Opalite,” others criticized the songwriting as lacking the depth and nuance of Swift’s previous albums.

But perhaps what drew the most controversy from fans and critics alike was the politics of the album.

From feminist icon to political enigma

Unlike Swift’s recent recordings, which were punctuated with popular feminist messaging, The Life of a Showgirl seems to rest on conservative ideals, with fantasies of marriage, children and quiet suburban life emerging on several tracks.

As an artist known for leaving hidden messages, or “Easter eggs,” in her songs and encouraging her fans to find and decode them, Swifties jumped on the possible meanings of Swift’s new music: is she endorsing a “trad wife” lifestyle? Was that a racist dog whistle? Isn’t the “showgirl” a feminist figure? Or is it all just satire?

As cultural studies scholars, we are less interested in the musical quality of the album or determining the “true” meaning behind the songs. Instead, we regard The Life of a Showgirl as a cultural barometer that makes visible the social trends and tensions through both the album itself and the meanings fans derive from it.

With ambiguous lyrics and imagery, Swift invites her fan base to find their own meanings in the album. In this sense, The Life of a Showgirl is a perfect album for our time — a masterpiece of performative ambiguity that allows Swift to transcend polarized political discourse and avoid taking a stand in this hostile political moment.

Swift is no stranger to performing political ambiguity as a celebrity figure. While she avoided politics early in her career, Swift eventually began voicing her views, aligning with progressive social movements of the late 2010s, like feminism and queer rights, denouncing white supremacy and anti-choice rhetoric and endorsing Democratic candidates in both the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections.

Swift became understood as a feminist icon in an era of popular feminism, where mediated feminism is accessible and highly visible in the cultural zeitgeist.

With the release of The Life of a Showgirl, however, Swift positions herself within today’s political context: rising conservatism.

In endorsing Kamala Harris but then attending the U.S. Open with Trump-supporting friends Brittany and Patrick Mahomes, Swift enables some fans to derive traditional, conservative meanings from this album that align with current leadership and others to defend her as the “Miss Americana” idol they once knew.

Ambiguity as a brand

The ambiguous narratives present in The Life of a Showgirl seem purposeful. Imagery of Swift bedazzled in feathers, Portofino-orange rhinestones and “sweat and vanilla perfume,” while giving her best attempt at lobotomy chic, suggests an album that would champion the feminist potential of the independent showgirl.

Instead, The Life of a Showgirl’s release generated a wave of interrogative discourse among listeners, arguing its lyrics seemingly have patriarchal, homophobic and white supremacist connotations, and, more poignantly, seem to contradict Swift herself.

In contrast to her previous objection to the use of the word “bitch” for its “strong misogynistic message,” she now waxes poetic about how “all the headshots on the walls / of the dance hall are of the bitches / who wish I’d hurry up and die” in the titular song.

“Actually Romantic” further highlights the album’s conflicting messaging and “outdated misogyny repackaged for the boss girl era,” not only by placing two women in rivalry with one another, but by suggesting that the only explanation for a woman not liking Swift is that she must be in love with her.

Such criticisms extend so far as to argue that the conservative messaging is so entrenched in the album that it should instead be titled The Life of a Tradwife, while others consider this a hypersensitive, leftist overreaction that misses the point and is “genuinely unfair.”

Yet dismissing these critiques feels irresponsible — especially when some of Swift’s most conservative lyrics are being celebrated by influential people. Alexis Wilkins, ambassador for Turning Point USA and girlfriend of FBI Director Kash Patel, interprets the album as Swift “choosing what matters most — a life of family and stability … choosing a home at the end of a cul-de-sac, a basketball hoop in the driveway, and kids who look like both of them.”

What Swift’s album says about us

In a moment of entrenched conservatism, it is not surprising that fans may read white supremacy, patriarchy and homophobia into The Life of a Showgirl — our cultural context makes all of those readings legible and possible, regardless of Swift’s true intention.

Performative ambiguity gives Swift access to both political sides of her devoted fan base, allowing them to interpret the album according to their own beliefs, concerns and values.

And Swift herself seems content to stoke the fire, stating in a recent interview: “If it’s the first week of my album release and you’re saying either my name or my album title, you’re helping.”

She also reminds her fans that her goal as an entertainer is “to be a mirror.”

– ref. Taylor Swift and the performative ambiguity of ‘The Life of a Showgirl’ – https://theconversation.com/taylor-swift-and-the-performative-ambiguity-of-the-life-of-a-showgirl-267061

November 4, 2025

Savoir nager en piscine, se noyer en mer : faut-il réinventer l’apprentissage de la natation ?

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Sarah Pochon, Maîtresse de conférences en STAPS, Université d’Artois

En France, on apprend majoritairement à nager en piscine… mais on se noie le plus souvent en mer, en lac ou en rivière. Entre l’eau chlorée et les vagues, un fossé demeure : comment préparer réellement les nageurs aux imprévus du milieu naturel ?

Les derniers chiffres de l’enquête Santé publique France soulignent qu’en 2025, chez les enfants et adolescents (0-17 ans), plus de 80 % des noyades ayant entraîné un décès ont été recensées hors piscine, en milieu naturel : 56 % en cours d’eau, 15 % dans des plans d’eau, 7 % en mer et 4 % d’autres lieux tels que bases de loisirs, bassins, carrières ou puits. Le reste des noyades (18 %) ont lieu dans des piscines privées familiales. Chez les adultes, le nombre de noyades suivies de décès en mer a augmenté de 40 % en 2025 par rapport à 2024.

Une question se pose alors : et si l’on repensait notre manière d’enseigner le « savoir nager » ? Et si l’on intégrait les milieux naturels (mers, lacs, rivières) dans les enseignements de natation ? Cette démarche, ambitieuse, paraît nécessaire face aux enjeux de sécurité, de santé et d’éducation des jeunes et futures générations.

Apprendre à nager « à ciel ouvert » constitue un atout éducatif majeur pour les élèves, car cela leur permet de consolider les compétences fondamentales du savoir nager en sécurité dans des conditions proches de celles qu’ils rencontreront ensuite dans leurs pratiques personnelles de loisirs.

Ces expériences d’apprentissage en milieu naturel renforcent également leur autonomie et leurs compétences aquatiques, qui englobent non seulement les compétences en natation, mais aussi les connaissances, attitudes et capacités d’évaluation des risques nécessaires pour évoluer en sécurité dans et autour de l’eau.

Les résultats d’une expérience menée en Martinique

Diverses enquêtes menées sur les compétences aquatiques des enfants en milieu scolaire montrent que l’exposition à différents milieux aquatiques et dispositifs pédagogiques contribue à la prévention des noyades mais qu’enseigner en milieu naturel ne se résume pas à transposer les contenus habituels « à l’extérieur ».

Une enquête exploratoire ayant donné lieu à un court-métrage documentaire, conduite par l’Université d’Artois sur l’apprentissage du « savoir-nager en sécurité » auprès de classes de sixième en milieu marin, dans le sud de la Martinique, a mis en lumière plusieurs opportunités d’apprentissage offertes par le milieu naturel.

En évoluant dans un milieu instable, les élèves peuvent par exemple améliorer leur proprioception, c’est-à-dire la perception de leur corps dans l’espace. Ils peuvent aussi apprendre à ressentir des sensations qui leur permettent d’ajuster leur équilibre dans l’eau et maintenir une trajectoire efficace malgré l’absence de repères classiques comme les fanions ou les lignes d’eau des piscines. Sur le plan des capacités d’adaptation, les élèves doivent prendre en compte les vagues et les courants pour ajuster leur motricité en temps réel.

En Guadeloupe, une expérimentation a été menée sur l’apprentissage du « savoir-nager » en sécurité dans la mer.
Steward Masweneng/Unsplash, CC BY

Par ailleurs, la nage en milieu naturel constitue une véritable opportunité d’éducation à l’environnement. Les élèves sont au contact direct de la nature et du vivant. Dans ce contexte particulier de la Martinique, ces expériences prennent une dimension singulière : ils peuvent observer des étoiles de mer au fond de l’eau, apprendre à nommer les poissons qui frôlent leurs jambes et développer une sensibilité particulière pour le milieu marin. Mais plus largement, ces expériences peuvent contribuer à la construction d’un rapport sensible et attentif au vivant.

Mais ces premières observations ont aussi souligné des contraintes auxquelles sont confrontés les enseignants d’éducation physique et sportive (EPS).

Les difficultés liées à l’apprentissage en milieu naturel

Ces contraintes, principalement liées à la sécurité et à la gestion de l’espace aquatique, font que les élèves évoluent majoritairement en zone peu profonde, délimitée par un périmètre sécuritaire. Or, cette possibilité de reprendre appui au sol empêche les élèves d’explorer la grande profondeur : ils ne peuvent donc pas expérimenter la remontée longue et passive sans signe de panique. Ces expériences sont essentielles pour prévenir la noyade, car elles permettent aux élèves de prendre conscience de leurs limites, de gérer leur peur éventuelle et d’adapter leur comportement face aux situations imprévues dans l’eau.

De même, la lecture de la motricité des élèves se révèle complexe. La houle, les vagues et le sable remué au fond de l’eau rendent l’observation difficile. Les enseignants, dans l’eau pour certains, à distance pour d’autres, peinent à analyser avec précision les comportements moteurs des élèves : la réverbération du soleil empêche de distinguer si les corps sont totalement allongés, de suivre les mouvements de bras ou encore les battements de jambes. Comment, dans ces conditions, valider le franchissement des obstacles en immersion complète, comment lire la motricité des élèves et vérifier qu’ils réalisent des sur-place verticaux sans reprise d’appuis, alors qu’ils ont toujours pied ?

Ce type d’expérience, particulièrement favorable en Martinique grâce à la douceur du climat et à la proximité du littoral, se heurte de surcroit, dans d’autres contextes, à des contraintes plus fortes comme la température de l’eau ou des conditions météo particulières (qui permettent aussi d’expérimenter un certain « rapport au vivant »).

Une enfant dans la mer — S’entraîner en milieu naturel augmente l’aisance aquatique, mais n’est pas sans difficulté pour les enseignants.
Stas Ostrikov/Unsplash, CC BY

Ces situations mettent en évidence la nécessité de concevoir des contenus d’enseignement spécifiques, de les tester et les analyser, ce qui ouvre ainsi de nombreuses perspectives de recherche en didactique. Des expérimentations menées à l’étranger se multiplient et permettent de comparer les approches et d’enrichir les stratégies pédagogiques pour développer l’éducation au savoir nager en sécurité en milieu naturel. En France, à ce jour, le ministère de l’éducation nationale n’a pas communiqué d’exigences particulières sur le savoir nager en milieu naturel.

Sur le plan de l’éducation à l’environnement, offrir des occasions d’apprendre en milieu naturel pourrait favoriser un retour à une sensibilité écologique que beaucoup d’individus des sociétés modernes auraient perdu.

Le milieu naturel peut devenir une véritable ressource pour permettre aux élèves de s’approprier leur environnement, de découvrir et mieux connaître la nature, la faune, la flore, le milieu marin ou sous-marin, et d’y revenir. L’EPS peut constituer un espace privilégié où les élèves développent une nouvelle écologie corporelle : une pratique corporelle d’activité physique en relation avec des éléments naturels, avec l’environnement, avec la nature.

Sarah Pochon a reçu des financements de l’Université d’Artois.

Muriel Surrans ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Savoir nager en piscine, se noyer en mer : faut-il réinventer l’apprentissage de la natation ? – https://theconversation.com/savoir-nager-en-piscine-se-noyer-en-mer-faut-il-reinventer-lapprentissage-de-la-natation-265109

November 4, 2025

Combien l’employeur doit-il payer pour attirer des cadres en dehors des zones urbaines ?

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Pierre Fleckinger, Professeur d’économie, chercheur associé à Paris School of Economics, titulaire de la chaire etilab, Mines Paris – PSL

Pourquoi certaines régions, comme l’Île-de-France, continuent-elles à concentrer richesses et habitants, tandis que d’autres peinent à se développer ? La clé se trouve dans le cercle vertueux – ou vicieux – de la densité. Le prix de l’immobilier joue un rôle non négligeable dans cette problématique stratégique à l’heure d’une éventuelle ré-industrialisation.

La question du développement économique des territoires est avant tout une histoire de poule et d’œuf. Comme la poule est issue de l’œuf qu’a pondu… une poule, un territoire a besoin de travailleurs pour prospérer… mais ces mêmes travailleurs ne s’y installent que si le territoire est suffisamment attractif. Ainsi, un territoire dense offre de meilleures perspectives professionnelles mais aussi des commodités recherchées, comme des écoles, des hôpitaux, des théâtres, des transports ou encore des services publics… Autant de raisons pour les travailleurs de préférer les régions plus développées.

Nous avons étudié cette dynamique à travers une question précise : comment font les entreprises situées dans des territoires peu denses pour attirer malgré tout des talents ? Une réponse pzut être trouvée du côté de la théorie économique des « différences compensatrices », qui explique les écarts de salaires en fonction des professions et de l’hétérogénéité des territoires.

Quand la réalité dément la théorie…

Selon cette théorie des différences compensatrices, les écarts de salaires s’expliquent à la fois par les compétences des individus et par les conditions de travail – qui incluent la qualité de vie. Plus les conditions proposées sont difficiles, plus le salaire doit être élevé pour attirer des travailleurs. Dit autrement, imaginons deux individus possédant des compétences équivalentes, si l’un des deux vit dans une zone moins dense que l’autre, offrant moins de commodités, alors il devrait logiquement être mieux payé (pour compenser cet écart).

Or, les données racontent une tout autre histoire. Au contraire, comme on l’observe dans le tableau 1 ci-dessous, les salaires moyens bruts horaires diminuent avec la densité. Pour les cadres, par exemple, ils passent de 43 euros dans les zones les plus denses à 35 euros dans les zones les moins denses – soit une différence de plus de 23 %.

Le prix de la densité

Mais ce constat est incomplet. Car les avantages liés à la densité ont un prix : logements plus chers, congestion urbaine, coût de la vie plus élevé… Les prix des logements, en particulier, comme l’illustre le tableau 2, passent de 1 357 euros par m² dans les zones les moins denses à 3 042 euros par m² dans les zones les plus denses, soit un rapport de plus de 1 pour 2 entre le premier et le dernier quartile.

Deux intuitions émergent de ces chiffres :

Le pouvoir d’achat immobilier constitue un facteur clé de compensation pour les ménages vivant dans des zones peu denses, car le logement représente une part importante du budget (environ 20 % en 2017) [Insee, Revenus et patrimoine des ménages, 2021] et son prix varie fortement selon la densité locale.

De plus, la baisse des prix immobiliers tend à jouer un rôle de compensation lorsque les autres avantages liés à la densité (prix à la consommation, qualité de vie, accès aux services, etc.) s’amenuisent. Cette compensation est donc plus marquée dans les zones les moins denses et pour les personnes qui valorisent particulièrement les bénéfices de la densité urbaine.

En somme, ce n’est pas tant le salaire en valeur absolue qui compense la faible densité, mais bien le niveau de vie relatif, que nous pouvons mesurer par le rapport entre revenu et prix de l’immobilier.

Moins dense mais meilleur niveau de vie

Comment vérifier que vivre dans une zone moins dense se traduise vraiment par un gain de niveau de vie, surtout pour les plus qualifiés ? Pour répondre à cette question, il faut comparer non plus seulement les salaires, mais le rapport entre revenu et coût de la vie – que nous avons estimé en intégrant le prix de l’immobilier.

C’est un exercice difficile, car de nombreux facteurs entrent en jeu : compétences individuelles (âge, diplôme, genre), caractéristiques du marché du travail (offre et demande d’emplois, organisation des entreprises, exportations, automatisation), et enfin éléments territoriaux (densité, infrastructures, effets d’agglomération). Si l’on ne prend pas systématiquement en compte ces variables, on risque de confondre l’effet réel de la densité avec d’autres déterminants.

Pour dépasser cet obstacle, nous avons mobilisé un volume de données considérable : l’ensemble des contrats de travail signés dans l’industrie manufacturière en 2019, enrichi de données d’entreprises et d’indicateurs locaux. Cette richesse statistique nous a permis d’isoler au mieux l’effet propre de la densité, en comparant des profils similaires à travers des territoires de différentes densités.

Un salaire qui progresse comme le prix de l’immobilier

Les résultats sont clairs. Plus la densité augmente, plus le salaire brut nominal progresse… mais le pouvoir d’achat immobilier recule. Une hausse de 1 % de la densité accroît de 0,15 % le temps de travail nécessaire pour acheter un mètre carré de logement. Autrement dit, les salaires montent avec la densité, mais pas assez pour compenser l’explosion des prix immobiliers.

Cet effet touche particulièrement les cadres. Ce sont eux qui voient le plus leurs salaires progresser dans les zones denses… mais ce sont aussi ceux qui perdent le plus en pouvoir d’achat immobilier. En choisissant de s’installer dans une zone moins dense, ils acceptent un sacrifice salarial, mais bénéficient d’un gain considérable sur le logement.

Pourquoi cette « prime » est-elle plus forte pour les cadres ? Dans une optique de différences compensatrices, notre résultat indique que les cadres sont les plus sensibles aux avantages liés à la densité, puisqu’ils sont prêts pour en bénéficier à perdre relativement plus en pouvoir d’achat immobilier.

BFM Business – 2022.

Un enjeu de politique publique

Nos résultats doivent toutefois être interprétés avec prudence. Plusieurs éléments méritent d’être approfondis :

Le niveau de formation des travailleurs : faute de données sur le niveau de formation, il est possible que les différences observées reflètent en partie une disparité de profils entre zones denses et moins denses. Si l’on pouvait isoler mieux l’effet de cette variable, la prime identifiée serait probablement encore plus marquée.

La dimension familiale : les décisions de mobilité se prennent rarement seul. L’attractivité d’un territoire dépend aussi des emplois pour le conjoint, des écoles pour les enfants, ou encore des infrastructures de santé.

L’évolution au cours de la vie : les priorités changent avec l’âge. La proximité d’un lycée importe peu sans enfants adolescents, tandis que l’accès aux soins devient crucial en vieillissant.

L’effet du Covid et du télétravail : les données mobilisées datent de 2019. Or, la crise sanitaire a modifié l’arbitrage entre grands centres et territoires moins denses, en donnant un nouvel élan au travail à distance.

Ceci étant rappelé, les zones moins denses sont des candidates naturelles à l’effort de réindustrialisation, ne serait-ce que pour des raisons foncières évidentes. Y attirer des travailleurs qualifiés est un enjeu de taille pour les entreprises. La politique publique se doit d’intégrer ces considérations d’attractivité de l’emploi selon la densité, tandis que les entreprises peuvent trouver un équilibre en s’y installant et bénéficiant du coût de la vie moins cher, à condition que les commodités et l’infrastructure ne soient pas dissuasives.

L’écart grandissant sur ce plan entre zones (très) denses et zones moins denses risque de priver durablement des espaces ayant pourtant un important potentiel de (re)développement industriel. Pour résoudre le problème de la poule et de l’œuf et enclencher des cercles vertueux, seule une coordination de la puissance publique et des entreprises au niveau local pourra permettre une réindustrialisation pérenne, qui bénéficiera aux employés, aux entreprises et aux territoires.

Antoine Prevet est directeur executif de l’etilab financé notamment par la Région Île-de-France, Crédit Agricole Île-de-France, Forvis Mazars ainsi que des ETI partenaires : Réseau DEF, Septodont, ETPO, SOCOTEC, Diot-Siaci, Acorus, Henner, Ceva, Prova, E’nergys et Hopscotch.

Pierre Fleckinger ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Combien l’employeur doit-il payer pour attirer des cadres en dehors des zones urbaines ? – https://theconversation.com/combien-lemployeur-doit-il-payer-pour-attirer-des-cadres-en-dehors-des-zones-urbaines-264389