Category: The Conversation

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Sutton, Honorary Professor in the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh

For decades, Ukraine was known as the breadbasket of the world. Before the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, it ranked among the top global producers and exporters of sunflower oil, maize and wheat. These helped feed more than 400 million people worldwide.

But beyond the news about grain blockades lies a deeper, slower-moving crisis: the depletion of the very nutrients that make Ukraine’s fertile black soil so productive.

While the ongoing war has focused global attention on Ukraine’s food supply chains, far less is known about the sustainability of the agricultural systems that underpin them.

Ukraine’s soil may no longer be able to sustain the country’s role as one of the major food producers without urgent action. And this could have consequences that stretch far beyond its borders.

In our research, we have examined nutrient management in Ukrainian agriculture over the past 40 years and found a dramatic reversal of nutrient levels.

During the Soviet era, Ukraine’s farmland was excessively fertilised. Nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium were applied at levels far beyond what crops could absorb. This led to pollution of the air and water.

But since independence in 1991, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction. Fertiliser use, especially phosphorus and potassium, plummeted as imports fell, livestock numbers declined (reducing manure availability) and supply chains collapsed.

By 2021, just before the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian soil was already showing signs of strain. Farmers were adding much less phosphorus and potassium than the crops were taking up, around 40–50% less phosphorus and 25% less potassium, and the soil’s organic matter had dropped by almost 9% since independence.

In many regions, farmers applied too much nitrogen, but often too little phosphorus and potassium to maintain long-term fertility. Moreover, although livestock numbers have declined significantly over the past decades, our analysis shows that about 90% of the manure still produced is wasted. This is equivalent to roughly US$2.2 billion (£1.6 billion) in fertiliser value each year.

These nutrient imbalances are not just a national issue. They threaten Ukraine’s long-term agricultural productivity and, by extension, the global food supply that depends on it.

The war has sharply intensified the problem. Russia’s invasion has disrupted fertiliser supply chains and damaged storage facilities. Fertiliser prices have soared. Many farmers deliberately applied less fertiliser in 2022-2023 to reduce financial risks, knowing that their harvests could be destroyed, stolen or left unsold due to blocked export routes.

Our new research shows alarming trends across the country. In 2023, harvested crops took up to 30% more nitrogen, 80% more phosphorus and 70% more potassium from the soil than they received through fertilisation, soil microbes and from the air (including what comes down in rain and what settles onto the ground from the air).

If these trends continue, Ukraine’s famously fertile soil could face lasting degradation, threatening the country’s capacity to recover and supply global food markets once peace returns.

Rebuilding soil fertility

Some solutions exist and many are feasible even during wartime. Our research team has developed a plan for Ukrainian farmers that could quickly make a difference. These measures could substantially improve nutrient use efficiency and reduce wasted nutrients, keeping farms productive and profitable, while reducing soil degradation and environmental pollution.

These proposed solutions include:

1. Precision fertilisation – applying fertilisers at the right time, place and amount to match crop needs efficiently

2. Enhanced manure use – setting up local systems to collect surplus manure and redistribute it to other farms, reducing dependence on (imported) synthetic fertilisers

3. Improved fertiliser use – applying enhanced-efficiency fertilisers that release nutrients slowly, reducing losses to air and water

4. Planting legumes (such as peas or soybeans) – including these in crop rotations, improves soil health while adding nitrogen naturally

Some of these actions require investment, such as better facilities for storage, treatment and better application of manure to fields, but many can be rolled out, at least partially, without too much extra funding.

Ukraine’s recovery fund, backed by the World Bank to help Ukraine after the war ends, includes support for agriculture, and this could play a key role here.

Why it matters beyond Ukraine

Ukraine’s nutrient crisis is a warning for the world. Intensive, unbalanced farming, whether through overuse, under use or misuse of fertilisers, is unsustainable. Nutrient mismanagement contributes to both food insecurity and environmental pollution.

Our research is part of the forthcoming International Nitrogen Assessment, which highlights the need for effective global nitrogen management and showcases practical options to maximise the multiple benefits of better nitrogen use – improved food security, climate resilience, and water and air quality.

In the rush to ensure cheap food and stable exports, we must not overlook the foundations of long-term agricultural productivity: healthy, fertile soils.

Supporting Ukraine’s farmers offers a chance not only to rebuild a nation but also to change global agriculture to help create a more resilient, sustainable future.

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Prof. Mark Sutton works for the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, based at its Edinburgh Research Station. He is an honorary professor at the University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences. He receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) through its Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF), the UK Department for Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). He is Director of the International Nitrogen Management System (INMS) funded by GEF/UNEP, and of the GCRF South Asian Nitrogen Hub. He is co-chair of the UNECE Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen (TFRN) and of the Global Partnership on Nutrient Management (GPNM) which is convened by UNEP.

Sergiy Medinets receives funding from UKRI, Defra, DAERA, British Academy, UNEP, GEF, UNDP and EU

– ref. Ukraine’s farms once fed billions but now its soil is starving – https://theconversation.com/ukraines-farms-once-fed-billions-but-now-its-soil-is-starving-269147

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

This newsletter was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.

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Nightly, for months now, Ukraine’s cities have been pounded by relentless aerial attacks. In addition to its grinding and attritional ground offensives in the east and south of the country, since early summer, the Russian military has greatly expanded its air offensive against centres of population, looking to collapse morale and undermine the Ukrainian people’s will to fight on.

And as winter approaches, so those aerial bombardments have targeted Ukraine’s power infrastructure.

Repeatedly in recent weeks, whole cities have been plunged into cold darkness as power plants, transmission lines and regional and local substations are damaged or destroyed. Rolling power outages are now common, reportedly lasting up to 14 hours in some cases.

So the latest political scandal to hit the government of Volodymyr Zelensky could hardly have come at a worse time for his country. And to make matters worse, it revolves around Ukraine’s energy industry.

Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies this week released the findings of Operation Midas, an 18-month probe into Energoatom, the state-owned operator of all of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, investigating allegations of bribes and kickbacks said to amount to US$100 million (£76 million). Raids were carried out around the country and seven people have been arrested.

What makes this so dangerous for Zelensky is that one of the people named in the probe is a former business partner of his. Businessman Timur Mindich was the co-owner, with Zelensky, of Kvartal 95 Studio – the platform on which the Ukrainian president made his name as a comedian before he entered politics (ironically, under the circumstances, as an anti-corruption candidate).

Mindich is reported to have left the country, but he is said to have connections to several senior government ministers. The scandal risks tainting the already embattled Zelensky government by association.

What’s worse, as Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko explain, is that only a few months before this scandal exploded, Zelensky tried to bring Ukraine’s independent anti-corruption agencies under the direct control of his government. He backed down in the face of huge demonstrations, but this latest corruption scandal is likely to weaken him further.

He has already lost his justice minister, German Galushchenko, and energy minister, Svitlana Hrynchuk. And, as Wolff and Malyarenko point out, the last thing Zelensky needs while his European allies debate how to raise desperately needed funds to keep fighting is a whiff of corruption surrounding his administration.

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Read more:
Ukraine: energy corruption scandal threatens to derail Zelensky’s government and undermine its war effort

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Having spent the day debating how to raise the huge amounts of money Ukraine will need in 2026, it appears that the EU is closing in on a preferred option. The European Commission considered two main options. One plan is for either the EU to borrow €140 billion (£124 billion) using its long-term budget as collateral. Another is to use the frozen Russian assets as collateral for a loan to Ukraine, to be repaid after the war if Russia pays reparations to Kyiv.

An idea floated by Norwegian economists to use Norway’s €1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund to guarantee the loan was quickly scotched by the country’s finance minister, former Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, who said that while Norway was happy to contribute, it could not be responsible for the entire amount.

The next move will be to assuage the fears of Belgium, which is where the assets are held by securities depository Euroclear, that a successful legal challenge by Russia could leave it liable for repayment. The Kremlin has already made noises to this effect.

Veronika Hinman, the deputy director of the University of Portsmouth’s military education team, believes that while the massive injection of funds will certainly enable Ukraine to continue to fight, it’s unlikely to be decisive. “It cannot deliver the manpower, weapons or morale,” she writes.

Hinman describes the fairly dire situation on the battlefield, where Russia is slowly but surely beating back the defenders outside key cities such as Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. The invaders continue to press for a breakthrough in these strategically important towns, which would allow them to make a push into central Ukraine.

Russia has been unsuccessfully trying to capture both Pokrovsk and Huliaipole for many months (its troops briefly entered Huliaipole on March 5 2022, only a couple of weeks after the invasion started, and were pushed back). But the fight appears to be increasingly lopsided, writes Hinman. Russia may have lost more than a million troops – killed or injured – but it has huge reserves and its retooled war economy appears to be bearing up reasonably well, despite US sanctions.

So the need for more money from the EU grows ever more critical, Hinman writes. But she worries that “in the end, this latest wave of aid may buy Ukraine time – but it’s unlikely to deliver victory”.

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Read more:
Kyiv’s European allies debate ways of keeping the cash flowing to Ukraine but the picture on the battlefield is grim

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Trump: lawfare and diplomacy

In the US, meanwhile, blows were struck in a different kind of war as a Florida prosecutor issued subpoenas to a range of officials that the US president believes are part of the “deep-state” opposition to his presidency.

When you look at the targets of these subpoenas, which include former CIA director John Brennan, former FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok, former FBI attorney Lisa Page and former director of national intelligence James Clapper, the thinking becomes clear. All of them were involved in the federal investigation into alleged links between Russian intelligence and Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

As we know, under instruction from Trump, the Justice Department has already gone after several of the president’s enemies, including former FBI director James Comey, former national security adviser John Bolton and New York attorney general Letitia James.

It’s all part of what has become known as the “grand conspiracy”, writes Robert Dover, an expert in intelligence from the University of Hull. And it appears as if the Trump administration is gearing up for some serious lawfare.

As Dover observes, whether or not these investigations actually end up with anyone facing court is, while not immaterial, not the whole point of the exercise. In the US, these investigations can take a huge toll on their targets: emotionally, financially and health-wise.

Dover points to a new unit in the Department of Justice, the “weaponization working group”, whose director, Ed Martin, said his job was to expose and discredit people he believes to working against the president: “If they can be charged, we’ll charge them. But if they can’t be charged, we will name them.” This, writes Dover, is a complete inversion of the traditional approach of: “charge crimes, not people”.

It feels like another step on the road to authoritarian government, he observes.

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Read more:
First subpoenas issued as Donald Trump’s ‘grand conspiracy’ theory begins to take shape

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The incumbent of the Oval Office, meanwhile, received the (relatively) new leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, this week. He’s the first Syrian leader ever to visit the White House and the visit represents a considerable rise to power and respectability for someone who, until a year ago, was leading an insurgent group against Syria’s Assad regime. His Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was, until July, proscribed by the US as a terrorist organisation.

But, as William Plowright, a Syria expert from Durham University, points out, as far back as 2015, former CIA director David Petraeus suggested that the US should consider working with the organisation which later became al-Sharaa’s group, Jabhat al-Nusra, against Islamic State.

As Plowright observes, there are upsides for both Trump and al-Sharaa in striking up a working relationship, not least of which is that it would deprive Iran of its closest ally in the region.

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Read more:
How former jihadist Ahmed al-Sharaa ended up being welcomed to the White House

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– ref. Ukraine: battered by bombing and scarred by corruption – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-battered-by-bombing-and-scarred-by-corruption-269755

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Fankhauser, Professor of Climate Economics and Policy, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

World leaders gather for the UN climate summit (Cop30) in Belém, Brazil, amid concerns about the slow progress in cutting global carbon emissions. Ten years into the historic Paris climate agreement, we are off track to meet its core objective, to keep global warming well below 2°C, relative to pre-industrial levels.

Yet there are glimmers of hope, and none more important than the astounding progress on renewable energy. Renewables are now so cheap that the clean energy transition is no longer an economic burden, it is a momentous opportunity.

Climate change campaigners tend to see renewables as an environmental imperative, an effective way of cutting emissions. They are that, of course. But they are also a powerful engine of investment, jobs and growth. They are reshaping the global economy. In my team’s new report, we lay out the evidence.

The first economic dividend of renewables is inclusion. Access to affordable energy remains a critical sustainable development goal, which shapes everything from education to health to women’s empowerment. Distributed renewables – from solar home systems to mini-grids – are our best chance yet of bringing affordable energy to all.

Across Africa, Asia and Latin America, renewable energy entrepreneurs are doing what national grids have struggled to do: reaching remote villages and replacing polluting diesel generators with clean, reliable power.

Because of its modularity, renewable electricity can be built out fast, expanded flexibly and maintained locally. Renewable energy firms are combining these technical advantages with new business models that make renewables more accessible (for example, through pay-as-you-go models) and keep benefits in the local community (for example, by offering energy services like cold storage, phone charging and water pumping, as well as electricity).

Investment, jobs and growth

If inclusion is the first dividend, investment is the second. Every dollar invested in renewables delivers more economic bang than a dollar spent on fossil fuels. The International Monetary Fund estimates that clean energy investments generate about 1.5 times their cost in economic activity, while fossil fuels yield less than one-for-one. Renewables do not just pay back; they pay forward through spending on supply chains and local wages.

The numbers are staggering. Between 2017 and 2022, climate finance flows into the 100 largest developing countries (excluding China) boosted their GDP by a combined US$1.2 trillion (£0.9 trillion) – the equivalent of 2-5% of GDP for most nations. In Brazil, the host of Cop30, renewable investments raised GDP by US$128 billion over those six years, according to our report.

Climate finance flows are still insufficient. To increase them, we need more concessional funding, more risk guarantees and more partnerships between governments, investors and local communities.

In the Dominican Republic, a blend of policy reform, clear incentives and blended finance has helped the country mobilise over US$6.5 billion in clean energy investment and double its renewables capacity in just three years.

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Read more:
Green jobs are booming, but too few employees have sustainability skills to fill them – here are 4 ways to close the gap

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The energy transition is often painted as a jobs killer, but the evidence says otherwise. Intergovernmental organisations project that there will be 43 million clean energy jobs by 2050, far outstripping those lost in fossil fuels.

For our report, we took a closer look at the jobs market in South Africa. For 12 months we collected data from job adverts and found a striking fact: clean energy jobs pay 16% more on average than all other advertised roles. For the most part the higher wages reflect the fact that clean energy jobs are high-skilled jobs, which require experience, training and problem-solving skills.

The high skills requirements are a challenge as well as a boon. Taking full advantage of the clean jobs revolution will require proactive skills development, both in the classroom and on the job. But for the young labour forces of many developing countries, the message is clear: renewables are not just a climate strategy, they are a job opportunity.

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Read more:
What are green jobs and how can I get one? 5 questions answered about clean energy careers

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Perhaps the most underappreciated economic benefit of renewables concerns productivity. Cheap, efficient energy is the lifeblood of industrial growth. Renewable energy is now much cheaper than fossil fuels, particularly when factoring in what is lost when turning energy (say, car fuel) into usable services (propulsion).

We calculated that with a rapid conversion to renewables, energy-sector productivity could double by 2050, compared to both current levels and a fossil fuel future. Since energy is such a ubiquitous input to all other economic activities, this has significant economy-wide benefits. For some developing countries, the GDP boost could be as high as 9-12% – simply from having more efficient energy services.

These productivity gains are not evenly distributed. For once it could be developing countries that benefit most. Industrialised countries grew rich on the back of cheap and abundant energy. In a low-carbon economy, it will be sun-rich developing countries that have the cheapest, most abundant sources of energy. This critical shift in comparative advantage could finally help to narrow the global prosperity gap.

At Cop30, leaders are debating climate targets, finance mechanisms and transition timelines. But they should also recognise this deeper reality: renewables are not a drag on growth but its new engine. In a world anxious about growth and prosperity, the clean energy transition is an economic strategy as much as an environmental one.

The challenge, as our report reminds us, is to share these gains equitably. Without fair benefit-sharing the transition risks repeating the inequities of the fossil fuel era. But get it right, and renewables can power not just cleaner economies, but fairer ones.

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This work was supported by grants from SSE plc and the UK Foreign and Development Office under the Climate Compatible Growth programme. .

– ref. Renewable energy is reshaping the global economy – new report – https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-is-reshaping-the-global-economy-new-report-268676

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Carly Ameen, Lecturer in Bioarchaeology, University of Exeter

Domestic dogs are among the most diverse mammals on the planet. From the tiny chihuahua to the towering great dane, the flat-faced pug to the long-muzzled borzoi, the sheer range of canine shapes and sizes is staggering.

We often attribute this diversity to a relatively recent phenomenon: the Victorian kennel clubs that first emerged around 200 years ago. These clubs are usually credited with formalising the selective breeding that created the hundreds of modern breeds we recognise today.

But our new research, published in Science, shows that this is only the latest chapter in a much older story. Dogs were already remarkably diverse in their skull size and shape more than 10,000 years ago, long before kennel clubs and pedigrees.

This discovery challenges the idea that directed breeding alone created the physical variety we see in dogs today. Instead, our research found that early dogs had already evolved an extraordinary range of forms soon after domestication – a diversity that has been continually shaped by thousands of years of shared history with humans.

Looking for the first dogs

For decades, archaeologists and geneticists have been trying to answer a deceptively simple question: when did wolves become dogs?

The history of human interaction with wolves is a long one, stretching into the last ice age, perhaps even as far back as 30,000 years ago. But the exact timing of dog domestication is uncertain. What makes dogs particularly special is that they were the first species humans domesticated – well before any plant or livestock. Yet despite decades of research, the first dogs continue to elude us.

Part of the challenge is the similarity between wolves and dogs. Even today, some modern dog breeds closely resemble wolves. This makes tracking their domestication in the archaeological record particularly difficult. By using a technique called geometric morphometrics – a way to map and measure shape variation in three dimensions – we could track subtle changes in shape over time from 3D models of the archaeological skulls.

We analysed 643 skulls of ancient and modern dogs and wolves, spanning 50,000 years from sites mainly across the northern hemisphere to track the emergence and diversification of domestic dogs across time and space.

What we found was striking: the earliest skulls with clearly domestic skull shapes in our dataset date to around 11,000 years ago, from the Mesolithic site of Veretye in Russia.

By this point, dogs had not only diverged in terms of skull shape from wolves but had begun to diversify among themselves. These early dogs were not all alike, but instead exhibited skulls of different sizes and shapes, probably reflecting the influence of local environments, population histories and human preferences.

In fact, some early dogs exhibit skull forms not found in any modern breeds, hinting at lineages and morphologies that may have since vanished. While we don’t see some of the most extreme forms of skull shape that we see today (such as pugs or bull terriers), the variation we see by the Mesolithic is already half the total amount of variation we see in modern breeds.

This echoes genetic studies that reveal deep splits among early dog populations. By the Neolithic (around 8,000–5,000 years ago), dogs had already formed regionally distinct lineages across Europe, the Near East and Asia. Some of these lineages survive in modern breeds, while others appear to have gone extinct, possibly replaced or diluted through interbreeding and human movements.

Uneven domestication

Our findings complement a growing body of genetic and archaeological evidence suggesting that the domestication of dogs was a protracted and regionally varied process. Ancient DNA research has shown that major dog lineages were already distinct by 11,000 years ago, implying that the domestication process began much earlier.

The exact timing is still debated, with some research pointing to close human-canid relationship from over 30,000 years ago. However, our study found no domesticated dogs among the 17 Late Pleistocene (126,000 to 11,700 years ago) skulls we examined, suggesting it may not reach that far back. Of course, the earliest dogs had to closely resemble wolves, and it’s possible that early dogs retained wolf-like skulls for generations, but for how long remains unknown.

There is still much we don’t know. To deepen our understanding, we need more specimens from the critical window between 25,000 and 11,000 years ago, particularly in underrepresented regions like central and south-west Asia. What this work has revealed, or perhaps reinforced, is the much older story of evolution between humans and dogs that began soon after domestication itself.

Ultimately, dogs are a mirror of human history. Their story is intertwined with ours, shaped by shared migrations, changing environments and evolving societies. As the first domesticated species – and still our most enduring companion – dogs offer a unique window into how humans have shaped the natural world and how the natural world has shaped us in return.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. It’s a myth that the Victorians created modern dog breeds – we’ve uncovered their prehistoric roots – https://theconversation.com/its-a-myth-that-the-victorians-created-modern-dog-breeds-weve-uncovered-their-prehistoric-roots-269534

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security & Dean of Faculty, University of Hull

In recent weeks, Donald Trump’s supporters have begun to align around the idea that a Democrat-led “grand conspiracy” – potentially involving former president Barack Obama – has been plotting against the US president since 2016. The narrative is that the 2016 Russia investigation, which resulted in the Mueller inquiry was part of this deep-state opposition to Trump, as was the investigation into the January 6 riot at the US Capitol.

The focus of the fightback by Trump’s supporters is in Miami, where a Trump-appointed US attorney, Jason A. Reding Quiñones, has begun to issue subpoenas to a wide range of former officials.

This has included former CIA director John Brennan, former FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok, former FBI attorney Lisa Page and former director of national intelligence James Clapper, all of whom were involved in the federal investigation into alleged links between Russian intelligence and Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

The way the so-called conspiracy is unfolding will feel familiar to anyone who has watched US politics closely in the past decade. There’s been a constant stream of allegations and counter-allegations. But the narrative from the Trump camp is that the powerful “deep state” forces have been arrayed against the president. The “two-tier” justice system that has persecuted Trump can only be rebalanced by pursuing those who investigated him in 2017 and 2021.

The Grand Conspiracy contains similarities with other prominent conspiracy theories and how they spread. The QAnon movement, whose most famous claim is of a global paedophile ring run out of a Washington pizza parlour involving senior Democrats, is one where disparate claims are sporadically and partially evidenced. The political potency of these claims does not sit in the individual pieces of evidence but in the overarching story.

The story is that hidden government and proxy networks manipulate the truth and judicial outcomes and that only through pressure from “truthers” (what many people in the US who believe conspiracy theories call themselves) will wrongdoers be brought to account. Once these ideas are popularised, they take on a momentum and a direction that is difficult to control.

Campaign of ‘lawfare’

Soon after his inauguration, Trump set up a “weaponization working group” within the Department of Justice. Its director, Ed Martin, said in May that he would expose and discredit people he believes to be guilty, even if the evidence wasn’t sufficient to charge them: “If they can be charged, we’ll charge them. But if they can’t be charged, we will name them. And we will name them, and in a culture that respects shame, they should be people that are ashamed.”

In the US the norm has been to “charge crimes, not people”, so this modification fundamentally changes the focus of prosecutors.

The recent subpoenas in Florida show this principle at work, effectively making legal process into the punishment. Even without full court hearings on specific charges, being forced to provide testimony or documents creates suspicion around those who are targeted. Criticism from legal officials that this is a “indict first, investigate second” method suggests that this is a break from historical norms.

Lawfare, defined as “legal action undertaken as part of a hostile campaign”, doesn’t require a successful prosecution. It merely requires enough investigative activity to solidify a narrative of suspected guilt and enough costs and pressure to seriously inconvenience those affected by it. In the new era of digital media, it’s enough to degrade the standing of a political opponent.

In that way, political retaliation has become a prosecuting objective. This is clear from what the US president has indicated in his frequent posts on his social media platforms for his enemies, such as former FBI director James Comey, who investigated his alleged links to Russia, or Adam Schiff, the senator who led his impeachment in 2019.

Hardball politics or authoritarianism?

Political scientists argue that authoritarianism is something that happens little by little. Some of these steps involve using state power to target political opponents, degrading checks and balances and making loyalty a legal requirement.

There are reasons to believe that the US seems to be tracking this trajectory currently, certainly when it comes to using the Justice Department to harass the president’s political enemies and pushing back against court judgments while attacking the judges that have issued them.

Further slides towards authoritarianism are possible because of the political potency of contemporary conspiracy movements. The right-wing QAnon movement, for example, has been exceptionally agile. It has offered its followers identity, community spaces and a logic that encourages active participation, exhorting believers to “do your own research”, for example.

In the wake of the near daily addition of material from the investigations into the allegations that the late financier, Jeffrey Epstein, ran a sex trafficking ring, involving some influential US citizens, many American citizens have concluded as a general truth that their elites do hide things. This makes it far simpler for broader conspiracies to gain traction and more difficult for politicians and journalists to work out what is conspiracy and what is evidence. This is creating a problematic feedback loop – hints of wrongdoing fuel public suspicion, and public suspicion fuels the idea of a further need for investigation.

But to suggest that anyone has control over this would be wrong. These movements can just as easily consume those seen as supporters as they do those seen as enemies. Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s determination to release the full and unredacted Epstein files could well produce negative outcomes for some Maga supporters, including prominent ones.

So, the transformation of legal process into public spectacle in America is suggestive of a drift towards authoritarianism. America’s famous “constitutional guardrails” of separation of powers, independent courts, juries and counsels will be pivotal in preventing this. They will need to stand firm.

The grand conspiracy theory might be more about seeking to isolate, and financially and emotionally exhaust opponents, while at the same time destroying America’s system of checks and balances. It might work.

Robert Dover does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. First subpoenas issued as Donald Trump’s ‘grand conspiracy’ theory begins to take shape – https://theconversation.com/first-subpoenas-issued-as-donald-trumps-grand-conspiracy-theory-begins-to-take-shape-269542

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Conor Meehan, Associate Professor of Microbial Bioinformatics, Nottingham Trent University

Flu season has got off to an early start this year in the UK – with cases spiking weeks earlier than in previous years. This has led to concerns that the UK may be on track for one of its worst flu seasons ever.

In the UK and other northern hemisphere countries, flu season tends to run from mid-November to mid-February. In the southern hemisphere, it runs from May to July.

It’s hard to know the exact number of flu cases the UK is currently seeing as most people don’t report when they have the flu. Most just stay in bed and recover. To get a picture of this year’s flu season, we rely on hospital data and GP reports. This usually only represents the most severe flu cases.

We know flu season is “starting” when about 10% of suspected cases come back positive for the influenza virus.

The UK’s flu season is already well underway – and weeks before it usually starts. This is because at the start of November we were already seeing 11% of daily tests come back positive for the flu. At the same time last year, just 3% of tests were positive. The UK crossed the 10% threshold a whole month earlier than it did last year.

School-aged children are currently most affected, with 38% of tests coming back positive for the flu – up from 30% just one week prior. Around this time last year, the number of children testing positive for flu was just under 7%.

Similar increases have been seen elsewhere, such as in Japan and across Europe.

What’s causing this early flu season?

The UK’s flu vaccine uptake seems to be almost identical to previous years, so the increase in cases cannot be explained by a fall in vaccination rates.

One likely factor contributing to the UK’s early spike in flu cases is the strain of influenza virus that’s circulating.

Flu is caused by influenza viruses – mainly the influenza A virus. There are lots of variants of this virus, so they’re usually designated by a combination of H and N numbers. For example, H5N1 is the main cause of the ongoing avian flu pandemic in birds and other animals. Seasonal flu in humans is usually caused by H3N2 and H1N1.

The seasonal flu vaccine is designed to combat these two strains, as well as an influenza B virus alongside them. This vaccine tends to be between 20-70% effective at preventing the flu, depending on the year. The vaccine tends to be most effective for school-aged children, especially in preventing severe forms of the disease.

A new vaccine is developed every year as the circulating strains of influenza can mutate over time, reducing vaccine efficacy.

Twice a year (once for each hemisphere), the World Health Organization convenes an expert panel to decide, based on the strains that circulated last year, what strains of influenza should be used to build the vaccine for the coming flu season. The vaccine almost always includes an H1N1, H3N2 and influenza B strain.

Generally, building these vaccines based on what circulated previously is quite effective. This is because any genetic changes that occur in these strains between flu seasons aren’t large enough to render the vaccine ineffective.

But this year there seems to have been an exception. A new strain of influenza, influenza A H3N2 subclade K, is now infecting the majority of people. This strain has seven mutations that differentiate it from the previous H3N2 strain. This is many more genetic mutations than what’s usually seen between seasons.

It’s too early to know why this strain has developed so many genetic mutations. But we do know that these changes appear to have made this strain slightly more transmissible compared to previous strains.

The strain’s R number (the average number of people an infected person will go on to infect) increased from the usual 1.2 for influenza to 1.4. This means about 20% more people will be infected than we would normally expect.

Early research into this strain shows that the vaccine is still very effective in children at preventing severe forms of the disease. But in adults, effectiveness has dropped to between 30% and 40%.

However, we can’t say just yet whether reduced vaccine efficacy in adults and the new mutations to the H3N2 strain are the causes behind the current spike in flu cases.

It’s also too soon to know whether this year’s flu season will be more severe than in previous years. But based on its early start, the strain’s high R number and low vaccine effectiveness in adults, we might expect higher numbers than usual.

And, if we look at data from from southern hemisphere’s flu season – which usually gives us a good idea of what we should expect – Australia saw its worst flu season ever. They reported 10% more cases than in the previous year.

How to protect yourself

It’s important to note that, especially in children, the vaccine is still the best form of protection. Flu can be very severe in both the young and old, resulting in hospitalisation and sometimes death. Vaccination (including by those who regularly come in close contact with older and younger people) is key.

It’s also important to know how flu symptoms differ from those of the common cold so that you can recover and protect others from catching it. The presence of fever, headache and a strong cough typically indicate the flu.

If you have these symptoms, you should rest and follow standard flu guidance. Also remember you’re infectious for a week or so after symptoms start, so isolating at this time will stop the virus from spreading. Alongside getting the jab, wearing a mask and following good hand hygiene can help you avoid getting sick and prevent you from spreading the flu if you are sick.

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If you’ve got a question about the flu vaccine that you’d like an expert to answer, please send them to: clint.witchalls@theconversation.com

Conor Meehan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Flu season has started early in the UK – here’s what might be going on – https://theconversation.com/flu-season-has-started-early-in-the-uk-heres-what-might-be-going-on-269619

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew White, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Culture, Media & Creative Industries, King’s College London

Spotify is haemorrhaging artists. In the last few months alone a handful of indie bands have exited the streaming platform. If that includes some of your favourite musicians, you may be wondering how best to support them.

Among the artists leaving the platform is indie band Deerhoof. They reacted to the news that Spotify’s founder Daniel Ek had used his venture capital firm to lead a €600 million (£528 million) investment in Helsing, a German defence company specialising in AI. Their statement said: “We don’t want our music killing people.”

This sentiment chimes with the attitudes of the many listeners who cancelled their Spotify subscriptions after the platform ran recruitment ads for ICE, the US’s controversial Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.

The exodus reflects a general concern that major tech companies are too cosy with the Trump administration. Spotify’s US$150,000 (£114,000) donation to Trump’s inauguration ceremony was cited by Canadian musician Chad VanGaalen as one of the reasons for his departure from the platform.

But these protests are as much driven by a recognition of ongoing structural problems with music streaming business models as they are with recent events. Music streaming platforms like Spotify, Amazon Music and Apple Music allocate revenue to artists on a pro-rata basis. This means that artists on each platform are entitled to a proportion of the overall revenue from streaming. This percentage is calculated by identifying the proportion of their streams that represent the total number of streams on the platform.

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There is therefore no direct financial relationship between listeners and the artists that they listen to. This is an opaque structure that fuels musicians’ sense that they are not receiving fair remuneration.

The number of songs on Spotify and similar platforms has grown exponentially in recent years. By Spotify’s own admission, the growth in revenue from music streaming has resulted in a deluge of AI-generated content, with 75 million spam tracks being removed over 12 months in 2024-25.

Despite this success, it can be assumed that many such tracks remain undetected and that there are therefore significant amounts of money being given to fake musicians at the expense of real artists. Spotify’s openness to some AI content, exemplified by the continuing presence of the AI band Velvet Sundown in its catalogue, does not assuage artists’ concerns.

The bundling of different types of content can make the allocation of payments to musicians much more complicated. While Spotify’s music and podcast revenue streams are separate, its audiobooks have been bundled into its premium subscription. The effect of this change in 2024 has been to lower the royalty rate of the songwriters whose music appears on its platform. Around the same time the company decided to remove payments for songs that were streamed less than 1,000 times. This is likely to disproportionately affect artists struggling to get a foothold in the music industry.

Despite all this, overall revenue continues to grow. Spotify claims that the US$10 billion it paid to the music industry in 2024 was the largest ever annual payment by any retailer. Annual rises in the price point of its subscription in the last two years means that its growth will likely sustain. That its latest quarterly figures revealed an operating profit of US$680 million seem to bear this out. This improvement in Spotify’s finances exacerbates musicians’ feeling that they are not getting their fair share.

Where to go next

So where can you go if you decide to leave Spotify? Given that its main competitors also use the pro-rata payment model and offer the same menu of unlimited music, then probably not to them.

Some streamers have experimented with user-centric models of payment whereby listeners pay directly the artists of the songs they stream. This, though, has had limited success, with Deezer capping its scheme to 1,000 streams per person per month, while Tidal ended its own experiment after two years.

There are, though, smaller platforms which deploy user-centric models of payment. Sonstream was popular for a while with independent artists, but at the time of writing its website has only basic functionality.

Resonate is a cooperative with a pay-for-play user-centric model which gives artists and rights-holders 70% of revenue, with the remaining 30% being ploughed back into the business. But the one that appears to come closest to combining an “artists-first approach” with a critical mass of musicians and listeners is Bandcamp. Each time a user purchases something on the platform, 82% of that transaction goes to the artist and/or their label. These payments have amounted to US$1.6 billion to date for not only streamed music, but cassettes, CDs, vinyl records and t-shirts too.

This last observation reflects a wider trend within the music industry and among listeners. That is that the encroachment of algorithms and AI on the curation and listening of music has led many to ditch streaming platforms altogether. This has encouraged artists to be more innovative, with many experimenting with other means of distributing their music, including selling CDs and downloads directly, and setting up their own DIY digital platforms.

For Spotify and other streaming platforms there is then a wider existential question about the extent to which it is possible to construct an economically viable business model that satisfies listeners while ensuring that musicians receive fair remuneration for their creativity.

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Andrew White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why musicians are leaving Spotify – and what it means for the music you love – https://theconversation.com/why-musicians-are-leaving-spotify-and-what-it-means-for-the-music-you-love-269231