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July 11, 2025

Pallets are the backbone of global trade but supplies are threatened by theft, loss – and giant bonfires

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Liz Breen, Professor of Health Service Operations, School of Pharmacy & Medical Sciences, University of Bradford

Craigyhill bonfire was declared the world’s tallest at a height of 203 feet (63 metres) in 2022. Thousands of pallets were used to build it. Stephen Barnes/Shutterstock

Pallets don’t usually make headlines. But amid fresh controversy around the traditional July bonfires held in Northern Ireland this year, they’ve suddenly become a talking point. Wooden pallets used in these bonfires are popular due to their stacking ability, and also their colours – which include the red, white and blue of Britain.

Ordinarily, pallets are used to transport products from manufacturers to retailers. But their numbers are shrinking due to theft and loss – and of course, they cost money to buy, store, use and replace. A study by one of us (Liz) in 2006 quoted a logistics firm that estimated 14 million pallets were generally missing throughout Europe, costing £140 million. And it’s an ongoing problem: millions of products such as pallets and packaging containers are still stolen each year across the continent.

Just one bonfire in Larne, County Antrim, in July 2021 reportedly used 17,000 pallets in its construction. This year, police are investigating where the pallets used in the same community’s bonfire originated from. Amid speculation that some may belong to Australia-based supply chain firm Chep, that company has stated its pallets can never legally be bought, sold or destroyed.

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Pallet losses can lead to logistical disruptions, delayed orders and bare shelves in supermarkets. And the impact is felt by pallet owners, manufacturers, customers and end-users alike.

Pallets are big business. In the US, around 513 million – mainly wooden, some plastic – are produced each year. In 2021, 48.6 million wooden pallets were produced in the UK, up 8.3% from 2020.

Rental companies can hold high numbers of pallets, which support the movement of “fast-moving” customer goods – including food, drinks and toiletries. North American firm Peco, for example, manages stock of over 20 million distinctive red wooden pallets across its 90 depots.

Manufacturers rely on pallets being available to fulfil orders and distribute them to customers quickly. Also known as “returnable transit packaging”, they are valuable assets as they can be maintained and reused. They are usually owned by a pallet pooling agent, which must absorb the loss when they are not returned from customers.

Why steal pallets?

Good-condition pallets have a resale value. Both wood and plastic pallets can be deconstructed and sold as components to other industries. Some people even use them to create furniture for homes and gardens.

Customers may feel these are legitimate upcycled products and won’t think to check where the pallets came from. However, some do have distinctive identification stamps that may remain in upcycled pallet products.

The organised theft of these products takes its toll on companies. Cargo crime (which includes consumer goods and transportation pallets and containers) is said to cost the UK economy £700 million each year.

If pallets are not available, production lines may be slowed down or stopped. And it may take longer to produce items, potentially leading to unnecessary transportation as well as greater fuel consumption and emissions.

But it can also be challenging to map pallet movements and know, at any given time, how many are in transit, with retailers, or lost. Digital tracking solutions such as radio frequency identification can be expensive to implement and are not foolproof. This can make it easy for pallets to go “missing in action”.

Pallets are a staple mechanism for stock to be received into retailers’ warehouses and distribution centres. Both the size of the pallets and their ownership can be colour-coded – at least some of the blue pallets making headlines this summer in Larne’s red, white and blue tower are thought to be owned by Chep. Warehouse bays are designed with specific pallets in mind – so changes to the pallets can bring extra costs.

Similarly, replacing lost or stolen pallets comes at a price – which could ultimately be felt by consumers if these costs are passed on by retailers.

Reducing theft and loss

Pallet owners cannot afford to continue losing them to theft. Firms that are found using non-compliant or untracked pallets because they have bought them from unauthorised sources can face shipment fines, while other initiatives, such as deposit or voucher schemes or one-for-one exchange plans, could incentivise the return of pallets.

These practices may influence corporate return behaviour, but the theft of pallets by organised crime gangs is increasing. Changing the materials used to construct pallets could reduce their financial attractiveness and resale value.

At first glance, a used pallet might look no more useful than discarded wood and be considered fair game for reuse or selling on. But businesses or individuals who collect, sell or purchase stolen pallets are putting themselves at legal risk. Firms found stockpiling or selling-on pallets without permission have faced legal action and even jail in Europe.

Aside from the legal implications, there are other operational and environmental costs. Each pallet taken out of circulation must be replaced, increasing demand for virgin timber, straining forest resources, and increasing labour costs.

The humble pallet is the backbone of global trading, and businesses rely on a steady and dependable supply. Pallet services function only if they continue to circulate – but theft and losses undermine this. Without this simple product, everyone from producers to retailers and consumers could end up paying more for the goods they take for granted.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Pallets are the backbone of global trade but supplies are threatened by theft, loss – and giant bonfires – https://theconversation.com/pallets-are-the-backbone-of-global-trade-but-supplies-are-threatened-by-theft-loss-and-giant-bonfires-260948

July 11, 2025

‘Come meet us in Dubai’: the new offshoring of grand corruption

Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Heathershaw, Professor in International Relations, University of Exeter

So-called professional enablers of grand corruption are increasing service provision out of jurisdictions where they can act without similar restraints. WaitForLight / Shutterstock

During an interview one of us (Ricardo Soares de Oliveira) carried out in 2017, an African high net-worth individual said he was told by an executive whose business had long served him out of London: “Come meet us in Dubai”. This is part of a large but still misunderstood shift.

In response to the hardening of rules for foreign money of dubious origins in traditional financial centres, sensitive business has been moving toward new, more permissive jurisdictions. This offshoring of services is giving corrupt strategies a new lease of life, while also making the fightback more difficult.

For every corrupt dealing that materialises as legitimate wealth, a trail of service provision is indispensable. Bankers, lawyers, real estate executives, accountants, management consultants and PR agencies have acted as facilitators in western financial centres.

Western governments have long indulged kleptocracy, a system where business success and political power are inextricably entwined. They have done so by condoning lax law enforcement and promoting deregulation, often through risible mechanisms of professional self-regulation.

But in recent years, data leaks and brave championship of reform by politicians, as well as the work of civil society organisations, investigative journalists and academics, have shed light on the role of these so-called professional enablers.

In June 2024, a month before becoming British foreign secretary, David Lammy promised to take aim at professionals who enable corruption through London and the UK’s overseas territories. This, he noted, included the “finest bankers, lawyers, estate agents and accountants that money could buy”.

Lammy’s comments give the impression that the era of risk-free facilitation of corrupt behaviour is at an end. But this optimism is, at least for now, misplaced.

The shift is largely in political discourse and media scrutiny. Enforcement seriously lags everywhere and is now in reverse gear in the US. Professional enablers still face no real sanction for engaging in such practices.

At the same time, many professionals are reacting to a more tightly regulated ecosystem in western jurisdictions by engaging in so-called “jurisdictional arbitrage”. There is evidence that they are increasing service provision out of jurisdictions where they can act without similar restraints.

Jurisdictional arbitrage

Almost all cases of the professional enabling we have studied involve service provision in western hubs and “new” global financial centres.

The professional network around Gulnara Karimova, the daughter of the former president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, was dubbed “the office” by Swiss prosecutors. Karimova was jailed in 2014 for taking bribes for access to the country’s market.

The criminal investigation into her involved 12 jurisdictions, including the UK, US and Uzbekistan as well as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong.

Isabel dos Santos, who is Africa’s richest woman and the daughter of former Angolan president José Eduardo dos Santos, also held a maze of global interests. These interests, as in the case of Karimova, spanned western jurisdictions and Asian financial centres such as Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong.

Alternative jurisdictions all offer very similar conditions. They are already well-connected, world-class financial centres that are attractive to international business executives.

Their governments have created regulatory, fiscal and secrecy conditions, sometimes explicitly undercutting older centres such as Switzerland and London. In the latest edition of the Global Financial Centers index, which ranks the competitiveness of financial centres, Dubai rose four places to go above Dublin, Geneva and Paris.

Crucially, they are also mostly authoritarian states where there is no media or civil society pressure regarding business activities. Even the intermittent sort of scrutiny one sees in western financial centres is absent there.

Much activity in these financial centres is legal and based on their legitimate competitive advantages. Business interests are also attracted by their vast capital pools. But they are proving to be especially appealing for the sort of business that can no longer flock to other jurisdictions.

This is the case with servicing clients from states under sanctions such as Russia or Iran. It also applies to regions like Africa and central Asia with high compliance barriers whose high net-worth individuals and firms can no longer get easy access to OECD jurisdictions.

Researchers at the University of Sussex have shown a major shift in dirty money networks away from the west and towards what they call a “Dubai-Kong axis”.

There is no exact portrait of the magnitude of this jurisdictional arbitrage. But our work tells us it is big. Two examples from Switzerland are commodity trading and wealth management.

These sectors have long been under-scrutinised. But they have seen regulatory tightening and greater media attention in recent years. Both have reacted the same way, by sending important parts of their business away from Switzerland.

The UAE has been dubbed the “new Swiss financial mecca”, with the Financial Times reporting in May 2025 that Swiss family offices are moving there “wholesale”. Far from downplaying the “Swiss brand”, they continue to advertise their multi-generational expertise and “old money” mystique, but from more amenable locations.

What can be done?

The many types of legal business involving professional services in these jurisdictions should not be affected. But national and international law must designate the “kleptocratic enterprise” of elites and professionals as a form of serious organised crime.

This would allow prosecutors to target professionals for working with criminal kleptocrats rather than having to prove that the particular asset handled has criminal origin. This move was made by Swiss prosecutors in the Karimova case.

It captures the reality that ill-gotten gains are layered and integrated into assets held overseas, just as enablers do for criminal gangs. It also means that the moving of the family office to Dubai will not prevent prosecution where an asset is held or registered.

Finally, governments could stimulate the market in asset recovery by making it easier for foreign governments and civil society to bring cases, with expert law firms working on a for-profit basis.

Illicit finance is always transnational, so there is no need to declare defeat just because dodgy business is on the move. However, we are entering a new stage in its global dissemination and complexity.

John Heathershaw receives funding from the Governance Integrity Anti-Corruption Evidence Programme funded by UK Aid from the UK Government for the benefits of developing countries. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the UK government’s official policies. He is affiliated with the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition.

Ricardo Soares de Oliveira receives funding from the Governance Integrity Anti-Corruption Evidence Programme funded by UK Aid from the UK Government for the benefits of developing countries. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the UK government’s official policies.

– ref. ‘Come meet us in Dubai’: the new offshoring of grand corruption – https://theconversation.com/come-meet-us-in-dubai-the-new-offshoring-of-grand-corruption-258434

July 11, 2025

Overhauling the NHS app is at the heart of UK healthcare plans, but it could leave some people behind

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Catia Nicodemo, Professor of Health Economics, Brunel University of London

The ‘doctor in your pocket’ will see you soon. CeltStudio/Shutterstock

The UK government’s ten-year health plan promises a radical digital transformation of the NHS. A key part of this change is said to come from developing the NHS app, which is being hailed as a “doctor in your pocket”.

The upgraded app will apparently offer features like instant health advice, appointment booking, prescription management and access to personal health records. It is hoped the software will become users’ “front door” to the NHS.

It’s an ambitious vision which aims to empower patients, streamline services and reduce red tape. And for tech-savvy users, these innovations could significantly improve access to care, reduce waiting times and enhance patient autonomy.

But while it may herald a new era of convenience for many, it risks leaving behind anyone who struggles with an increasingly digital world. This could then exacerbate health inequalities which already exist – and increase pressure on some areas of already strained services.

In particular, a digital-first approach to healthcare risks excluding older adults, who may lack the skills or resources to confidently navigate the necessary software. The media regulator Ofcom estimates that around 6% of UK households still lack internet access at home. Figures from the charity Age UK suggest that 33% of people over 75 in the UK lack basic digital skills.

With regard to health specifically, a 2024 study found that older patients were more likely to misunderstand automated symptom checkers, leading to unnecessary anxiety or delayed care.

For these people, the planned shift to app-based services could create new barriers to accessing care, potentially leading to delayed diagnoses and worsening health outcomes.

The NHS plan does at least acknowledge this divide, and says it will confer with patient groups and work with other establishments (such as libraries) to support digital literacy. But these measures will not be enough without guaranteed funding.

And older people, even those who are comfortable with technology, may face other challenges such as visual impairment or cognitive decline, which can make using apps difficult.

Others who struggle to use the NHS App for routine care may delay seeking help until their conditions worsen, placing avoidable strain on overstretched hospitals.

Digital diversion

This strain might include digital triage inadvertently funnelling non-urgent cases to A&E if users misinterpret symptoms or find the app’s guidance unclear, a risk compounded by the lack of human oversight in automated systems. Or a patient with chronic pain might avoid the app due to digital anxiety or confusion, and end up going to A&E when their condition becomes unbearable and more costly to treat.

Two women of different generations use a smartphone together. — Not everyone is comfortable with apps.
Halfpoint/Shutterstock

To avoid all of this, the NHS needs to maintain traditional communication options. Telephone and in-person services must remain accessible and widely available. The ten-year plan’s focus on “digital by default” should not become “digital only”.

There should also be plenty of investment to help people feel digitally empowered and included. Places like libraries and community centres can certainly help, but targeted outreach will also be necessary, such as partnerships with charities.

This is not to say the NHS should be overly wary of the benefits of increased digital capabilities. The ten-year plan highlights, for example, the app’s potential to alleviate some of the burdens on healthcare staff, with AI able to take care of admin, saving clinicians time which can be used for patient care instead.

Such efficiencies are critical for a system grappling with workforce shortages and rising demand. Yet if digital tools are not universally accessible or usable, not everyone will benefit.

So while the NHS’s digital ambitions are commendable, their success hinges on inclusivity. If it’s not careful, the system risks entrenching a two-tier system where younger, tech-literate patients benefit while older and disadvantaged groups face greater exclusion. As the NHS embraces innovation, it must ensure no one is left behind – especially those who rely on it the most.

Catia Nicodemo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Overhauling the NHS app is at the heart of UK healthcare plans, but it could leave some people behind – https://theconversation.com/overhauling-the-nhs-app-is-at-the-heart-of-uk-healthcare-plans-but-it-could-leave-some-people-behind-260540

July 11, 2025

How citizens’ assemblies could improve animal welfare

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Heather Browning, Lecturer in Philosophy, University of Southampton

Heather Browning speaks about animal welfare and ethics as part of the Citizens’ Assembly for Animal Welfare opening event in Birmingham. RSPCA, CC BY-NC-ND

As an animal lover, should you visit zoos? Should you have pets? Should you make your garden friendly for birds, pollinators and other wildlife? Should you try to reduce meat in your diet or avoid consuming all animal products? Should you write to politicians about changing the laws for animals?

As a lecturer in animal ethics and animal welfare science, and someone who’s spent a lot of time working with animals, these are the sorts of questions I think about.

There are lots of ways to be kinder to animals. All have their merits. But the big question is: what sort of future do we want to see for animals in our society?

We live in a time where animals are facing some of their biggest challenges, from the climate crisis to industrial farming. Combined with other social issues such as the cost of living crisis and global conflicts, we as citizens and consumers have many other competing claims on our capacity to care. This can mean less attention for animals and the harms they face.

This creates a big problem. Alongside the ethical reasons for improving animals’ lives, good animal welfare can benefit everyone – among other things, care for and connections with animals improves our own mental health, fosters compassion in our communities, and can lead to improvements in our natural environment. We don’t want to lose sight of the progress we’ve made in our thinking about and treatment of animals.

It’s undeniable that there have been many welfare gains for animals over the years, but in the face of how far we still have to go, perhaps new approaches are needed. How can we conceive of new, and perhaps more radical, ways to help animals? And importantly, how do we keep animal welfare on the agenda, both socially and politically?

For over two centuries, the Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) has played a central role in this fight. Alongside their animal rescue work, they have campaigned for changes in over 400 laws, and worked with the public to find ways to improve welfare for pets, farmed animals and wildlife.

This year they are stepping into a new frontier and have commissioned what is possibly the first ever citizens’ assembly focused entirely on animal welfare in the world, delivered with the assistance of experts from the New Citizen Project, a consultancy that specialises in citizen-led engagement. The assembly is part of the RSPCA’s Animal Futures project, which aims to examine what the future may hold for animals by 2050, and most importantly how everyone (citizens, consumers and policymakers) has a role in influencing this.

chickens farmed outside, green grass and open air — Citizens’ assemblies are being held to debate animal welfare issues, such as chicken farming for eggs.
Dewald Kirsten/Shutterstock

Citizens’ assemblies bring together a randomly selected representative sample of the population, who learn about and debate issues and make recommendations. It’s a form of deliberative democracy, where the people can have their say on important social and political issues.

Assemblies are a means of overcoming some of the current problems with the democratic process, like the exclusion of people who often aren’t heard in politics (such as those with less money or education, or racial and religious minorities) and polarisation between major government parties that can slow down decision-making and action.

Beyond just a focus group asking for existing opinions, citizen’s assemblies provide opportunities for members to learn and shape their thinking, to build expertise on the topics they deliberate.

Assemblies have already been used around the world on issues as diverse as abortion rights, electoral reform and food waste. As they are independently facilitated, they don’t just follow the accepted institutional narratives and can instead encourage organisations and policymakers to envision new directions for thought and action – in line with the realities of what the public believe and value.

There are now several examples of the recommendations coming from such assemblies successfully driving policy change, such as climate change reform in France.

While organisations such as the RSPCA may know a lot about animals, hosting this assembly is an acknowledgement that they don’t have all the answers about what is best for society as a whole, as we consider our interactions with animals. The scope of this problem is far larger than any one organisation can tackle alone, and through initiatives such as the citizens’ assembly, we can gain a greater insight into the possible solutions for the future.

Animal assembly

I recently attended this assembly’s opening session in Birmingham, where members were gathered from all around England and Wales (neatly marked by pins scattered across a map of the country). Looking around the room there was obvious diversity in demographics and backgroun and as I spoke with the members it was also apparent there was a wide range of opinions and beliefs on the topics we discussed.

What everyone shared was a commitment to the process – to learn from the experts who were there to introduce the topics, to deliberate and discuss carefully and thoughtfully – and a desire to contribute and influence the process. Being there felt like being part of an important moment for the future of animal welfare.

In the weeks that followed, the members of the assembly met again several times to absorb and consider huge amounts of information about topics such as farming, responsible pet ownership, wildlife, and nature. Based on this, they will make a series of recommendations that will drive change at the RSPCA.

What they produce will be used to shape its future direction, how it works, and how it lobbies governments. What these assembly members recommend could have a substantial and lasting impact on animal welfare in the UK.

Like many animal welfare experts from academia, industry or charities, I might think I have the answers on what animals need. But successful solutions require public backing to have real impact. Improving the future for animals is something that everyone has a role in and a citizens’ assembly can be a catalyst for positive change.

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Heather Browning does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How citizens’ assemblies could improve animal welfare – https://theconversation.com/how-citizens-assemblies-could-improve-animal-welfare-259755

July 11, 2025

What would it take for a new British leftwing party to succeed?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Colm Murphy, Lecturer in British Politics, Queen Mary University of London

Last week, the MP for Coventry South, Zarah Sultana, made an audacious decision. Having already lost the Labour party whip for opposing the two-child benefit cap, Sultana announced she would co-lead a new leftwing party with Jeremy Corbyn, who was expelled from Labour in 2024.

From one angle, her decision may seem simple. Discontent with Keir Starmer’s Labour government, on everything from welfare cuts to Gaza, has never been higher, and Sultana is a vocal critic. Yet, launching a (still unnamed) new party is bold. It tackles head-on an old and vexing question for socialist critics of capitalism in the UK.

In 1976, the socialist theorist Ralph Miliband (yes, Ed and David’s dad) described the faith in Labour’s capacity to become a socialist vehicle as “the most crippling of all illusions”. But socialists who agree with Miliband senior then have an almighty problem.

Writing months after the 2019 defeat of Corbyn’s Labour party, the veteran “New Left” academics Colin Leys and Leo Panitch echoed Miliband in their book Searching for Socialism. But they also saw few immediate alternatives with “any prospect of electoral success”. This, they wrote, is the “central dilemma” for British democratic socialists.

The reaction to Sultana’s announcement from the British left has been accordingly mixed. Leaks revealed that Corbyn’s team was caught off guard. Responses from prominent potential supporters were reserved. Momentum, the leftwing grassroots organisation, hastily distributed the pamphlet Why Socialists Should Be in the Labour Party.

It’s too early to know whether these issues are teething problems or portents. But the barriers to Sultana’s venture are formidable. What would it take for a new leftwing party to succeed? What would “success” even look like?

A careful reading of political history can help us answer these questions. This is not the first time that new parties have emerged from Labour factionalism. Many readers will be aware of the 1981 departure of the “gang of four” Labour figures, who founded the Social Democratic party (SDP) that later merged with the Liberal party to form the Liberal Democrats.

Nor is it the first time that smaller parties have appeared on Labour’s left. Between 1920 and 1991, the Communist party of Great Britain was a potent force in the trade union movement. From the 1990s to the 2010s, several vehicles contested local and national elections against Labour, from the Socialist Alliance to Left Unity.

Challenges for a new party

Each of these iterations had its historical peculiarities. But stepping back, we can identify three recurring challenges that any leftwing insurgent party must confront.

First, they must agree on an electoral strategy and purpose, given the institutional brutality of British democracy. The UK has some proportional elections, including in Scotland and Wales (expected to be next contested in 2026). Councils are also possible avenues of influence.

But there is no avoiding the fact that legislative and executive power is hoarded in the House of Commons, elected by first past the post. Labour will discourage possible defectors by warning that a split in the left vote will let in the right. Neil Kinnock, Labour’s former leader who found himself fighting off the SDP while trying to evict Thatcher in the 1980s, dubbed Sultana and Corbyn’s venture the “Farage assistance party”.

Left of Labour parties are often aware of the risk. Indeed, far left activists have in the past advocated voting Labour, with “varying degrees of (un)enthusiasm”.

Advocates of a new party will note that Labour is only polling in the low 20s, suggesting a pool of ex-Labour voters potentially interested in shopping around. However, there are others it could torpedo too.

One recent poll on support for a hypothetical Corbyn-led party – which we should take with some salt – found that its 10% support comes partly from eating into the Green vote. An electoral arrangement with the Greens, on the other hand, may require shared policy platforms, raising the question of why a separate party is needed.

A poll from More in Common conducted specifically about a Sultana-Corbyn party found 9% of Labour voters and 26% of current Green voters saying that would vote for such a party.

The Socialist Labour party (SLP) – founded in 1996 by the prominent trade unionist Arthur Scargill in reaction to Tony Blair’s New Labour – is the obvious cautionary tale. Scargill wanted a purer, better Labour party. Yet, Labour looked set to kick out an 18-year-long Conservative government.

Scargill could not convince many sympathetic activists to join. As historian Alfie Steer argues, the SLP instead became dominated by socialists hostile to the Labour party. The party could not overcome the resultant contradictions in its purpose and collapsed into acrimony.

The SLP also illustrates the second key consideration: timing. The SLP struggled partly because it launched just as Labour was sweeping triumphantly into power. Sultana’s timing is arguably more astute. She has waited for Starmer’s bubble to burst and for disillusionment to fester.

However, the broad left within Labour has also just found its voice by rebelling against government policy. The temptation for a risk-averse Labour activist may be to leap onto this critical bandwagon without taking the more dangerous step of defecting.

Starmer and Corbyn side by side — Keir Starmer, then shadow Brexit secretary, accompanies then-Labour leader Corbyn to Brussels in 2019.
Alexandros Michailidis/Shutterstock

The final challenge is securing institutional durability without debilitating splits. It is telling that Sultana felt compelled to include Corbyn’s name despite his reported reservations.

Sultana herself has an impressive political profile, especially on TikTok. Any new party will rely heavily on prominent spokespeople to force it into the national conversation. Yet, such vehicles can become trapped by their dependence on individuals. The Respect party of the 2000s, for example, was reliant on the charismatic but polarising figure of George Galloway.

The fledgling party will also need a lasting structure that determines how candidates are selected and policy is formed. This risks dragging it into dreaded constitutional debates. It is already reportedly divided over the existence of co-leaders.

Intra-party democracy is off-putting to outsiders. But as constitutional scholar Meg Russell argues, it speaks to fundamental questions about the extent, and limits, of democracy. Such disputes have frequently wracked the left (and the radical right, as Reform’s recent constitutional changes show).

To what extent should policy be “democratically” decided? Should a new party limit who can join, and if so, on what criteria? How will leaders be selected? From the CPGB to the SLP, these questions have proven divisive in the past. They could easily prove so again.

The new party faces severe challenges, but it would be unwise to write it off completely. In a volatile context, it has a chance to make its mark if it is clear in its strategic electoral purpose, cultivates an institutional and activist base and times its interventions astutely. But the obstacles to success are enormous – and with Reform currently polling top, the risks are high.

Colm Murphy is currently a member of the Labour Party, but he is writing purely in an academic capacity.

– ref. What would it take for a new British leftwing party to succeed? – https://theconversation.com/what-would-it-take-for-a-new-british-leftwing-party-to-succeed-260599

July 11, 2025

Why it can be hard to warn people about dangers like floods – communication researchers explain the role of human behavior

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Keri K. Stephens, Professor & Co-Director, Technology & Information Policy Institute, The University of Texas at Austin

How emergency alerts convey risks matters. AP Photo/Eric Gay

Flash floods like the one that swept down the Guadalupe River in Texas on July 4, 2025, can be highly unpredictable. While there are sophisticated flood prediction models and different types of warning systems in some places, effective flood protection requires extensive preparedness and awareness.

It also requires an understanding of how people receive, interpret and act on risk information and warnings. Technology can be part of the solution, but ultimately people are the critical element in any response.

As researchers who study emergency communications, we have found that simply providing people with technical information and data is often not enough to effectively communicate the danger and prompt them to act.

The human element

One of us, Keri Stephens, has led teams studying flood risk communication. They found that people who have experienced a flood are more aware of the risks. Conversely, groups that have not lived through floods typically don’t understanding various flood risks such as storm surges and flash floods. And while first responders often engage in table-top exercises and drills – very important for their readiness to respond – there are only a few examples of entire communities actively participating in warning drills.

Messages used to communicate flood risk also matter, but people need to receive them. To that end, Keri’s teams have worked with the Texas Water Development Board to develop resources that help local flood officials sort through and prioritize information about a flood hazard so they can share what is most valuable with their local communities.

The commonly used “Turn Around Don’t Drown” message, while valuable, may not resonate equally with all groups. Newly developed and tested messages such as “Keep Your Car High and Dry” appeal specifically to young adults who typically feel invincible but don’t want their prized vehicles damaged. While more research is needed, this is an example of progress in understanding an important aspect of flood communication: how recipients of the information make decisions.

Interviews conducted by researchers often include responses along these lines: “Another flash flood warning. We get these all the time. It’s never about flooding where I am.” This common refrain reveals a fundamental challenge in flood communication. When people hear “flood warning,” they often think of different things, and interpretations can vary depending on a person’s proximity to the flooding event.

Some people equate flood warnings with streamflow gauges and sensors that monitor water levels – the technical infrastructure that triggers alerts when rivers exceed certain thresholds. Others think of mobile phone alerts, county- or geographic-specific notification systems, or even sirens.

a small yellow triangle enclosing a black exclamation point sits above a block of text — A typical alert from the National Weather Service.
AP Photo/Lisa Rathke

Beyond technologies and digital communication, warnings still come through informal networks in many communities. Emergency managers directly coordinate with and share information with major businesses and organizations, saying, “Hey, John, be sure you have somebody up tonight watching the National Weather Service alerts and rivers.”

This human-centered approach, similar to neighborhood-level systems we have studied in Japan, can provide direct confirmation that warnings have been received. This is something mass media and mobile systems cannot guarantee, especially during infrastructure failures such as power and cell tower outages.

Effective messages

Research shows that effective warning messages need to include five critical components: a clear hazard description, location-specific information, actionable guidance, timing cues and a credible source. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s integrated public alert and warning system message design dashboard assists authorities in rapidly drafting effective messages.

This warning system, known as IPAWS, provides nationwide infrastructure for wireless emergency alerts and Emergency Alert System messages. While powerful, IPAWS has limitations − not all emergency managers are trained to use it, and messages may extend beyond intended geographic areas. Also, many older mobile devices lack the latest capabilities, so they may not receive the most complete messages when they are sent.

Hyperlocal community opt-in systems can complement IPAWS by allowing residents to register for targeted notifications. These systems, which can be run by communities or local agencies, face their own challenges. People must know they exist, be willing to share phone numbers, and remember to update their information. Social media platforms add another communication channel, with emergency managers increasingly using social media to share updates, though these primarily reach only certain demographics, and not everyone checks social media regularly.

The key is redundancy through multiple communication channels. Research has found that multiple warnings are needed for people to develop a sense of urgency, and the most effective strategy is simple: Tell another person what’s going on. Interpersonal networks help ensure the message is delivered and can prompt actions. As former Natural Hazards Center Director Dennis Mileti observed: The wireless emergency alerts system “is fast. Mama is faster.”

A Colorado news report explains why emergency alerts have to be tailored for local needs and conditions and use multiple communication channels.

Warning fatigue

Professionals from the National Weather Service, FEMA and the Federal Communications Commission, along with researchers, are increasingly concerned about warning fatigue – when people tune out warnings because they receive too many of them.

However, there is limited empirical data about how and when people experience warning fatigue – or about its impact.

This creates a double bind: Officials have an obligation to warn people at risk, yet frequent warnings can desensitize recipients. More research is needed to determine the behavioral implications of and differences between warnings that people perceive as irrelevant to their immediate geographic area versus those that genuinely don’t apply to them. This distinction becomes especially critical when people might drive into flooded areas outside their immediate vicinity.

The key to effective emergency communication is to develop messages that resonate with specific audiences and build community networks that complement technological systems. We are now studying how to do this effectively in the United States and internationally. It’s also important to apply behavioral insights to the design of every level of communication warning systems. And it’s important to remember to test not just the technology but the entire end-to-end system, from threat identification to community response.

Finally, maintaining true redundancy across multiple communication channels is an important strategy when trying to reach as many people as possible. Technology supports human decision-making, but it doesn’t replace it.

Keri K. Stephens’ research reported here has been externally funded by the Texas Water Development Board, Texas General Land Office, and the National Science Foundation. Results published are peer-reviewed, and opinions reflect those of the author, not the funder.

Hamilton Bean has earned research funding from U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Results published are peer-reviewed, and opinions reflect those of the author, not the funder.

– ref. Why it can be hard to warn people about dangers like floods – communication researchers explain the role of human behavior – https://theconversation.com/why-it-can-be-hard-to-warn-people-about-dangers-like-floods-communication-researchers-explain-the-role-of-human-behavior-260780

July 11, 2025

Berg winds in South Africa: the winter weather pattern that increases wildfire risks

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sheldon Strydom, Senior Lecturer & Head of Department, Department of Geography, Rhodes University

After a fire. Hendrik van den Berg, via Wikimedia Commons., CC BY

Winter in some parts of South Africa is a time of low (or no) rainfall and high fire danger. Sheldon Strydom studies the relationship between weather and fire, in particular how Berg winds, also known as mountain flow events, are linked to periods of enhanced fire danger. Mid-July is typically a high risk period. He shares what he has learnt during his research in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa, close to the country’s largest mountain range, the Drakensberg.

What are Berg winds and how do they form?

It’s long been known that mountain winds (“foëhn winds”, “chinook winds” and the like) increase fire danger. There’s case study evidence from around the globe.

In South Africa, these mountain winds are known as Berg winds. They are generally experienced as warm and dry.

A mountain wind starts when a mass of air is forced to rise along a windward slope (the side of the mountain that wind is blowing towards). As the mass of air rises it cools. When it reaches the peak of the slope or mountain it descends on the leeward (sheltered) side. As it gets lower, the air gets warmer.

Berg winds commonly occur in South African winters when high atmospheric pressure systems are situated over the interior of the country and low pressure systems are situated off the coast. (Atmospheric pressure is the pressure of air over the land, and affects the movement of air.)

Usually, a coastal low pressure system happens a day or two before a cold front. The pressure gradient (difference in pressure that drives wind) between the interior high pressure cell and coastal low pressure cell results in air flowing towards the coast from the interior of the country, down the mountain escarpment. The air reaches coastal areas as a warm, dry wind.

Why study the relationship between Berg winds and fires?

Winds can spread fires in the landscape.

Our study, using data from four sites in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, quantified the effect of Berg winds on the microclimate (local weather conditions) and emphasised how these changes influence fire danger.

The sources of fires in South Africa, as elsewhere, vary. For example, wildfires can be started when prescribed burning, or the planned use of fire, becomes uncontrolled due to changes in weather conditions. Accidental fires and arson are the most common causes of wildfires. Research shows that wildfires and fire disasters are common in areas where prescribed burning is used.

Prescribed burning, or the planned use of fire, is an important aspect of agricultural management. It promotes the dispersal and germination of seeds from a number of species and also removes ground litter. Prescribed burning is used to manage grasslands and has been linked to decreasing the number of disease-borne vectors such as ticks.

But if they get out of control, fires pose a threat to farmland and plantations.

It’s therefore vital to have weather forecasts and monitoring systems that warn of conditions conducive to the development and spread of fires.

Internationally, fire danger indices or meters are used to monitor conditions. In South Africa, the South African Weather Service and other interested and affected parties currently use the Lowveld fire danger index. The index is calculated using records of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and rainfall. These are measured once a day. Daily forecasts are available from the Weather Service and disseminated to local fire protection associations.

Much research in South Africa has focused on pyrogeography (understanding when and where fires occur) and fire ecology. Little research has been done to quantify the effects of Berg winds on fire danger using available historical hourly meteorological data.

The midlands of KwaZulu-Natal province serve as a perfect environment to study the effects of Berg winds on the microclimate and fire danger. The area is close to the Drakensberg mountains and experiences frequent fires. It’s also a largely agricultural area.

What did you discover?

The study developed a fuzzy logic system (a mathematical method for handling uncertainty) to identify periods of Berg wind conditions using historical hourly meteorological data in four sites.

We analysed variables like the air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and fire danger at different times of the day and night, before and during Berg winds.

The analysis revealed the significance of change experienced in the local weather conditions (within 2km) during periods of Berg winds, and how these changes influence fire danger.

It found that:

Berg winds were more common during daytime hours and affected the microclimate most during the day
during daytime Berg wind events, air temperatures rose by an average of 5.5°C; humidity fell by an average of 16%; and wind speed increased by an average of 5.2 metres per second
daytime Berg wind events significantly elevated fire danger
night-time Berg winds, while less common, did still result in significant change in the microclimate
at night, fire danger increases when a combination of variables change significantly.

The fuzzy logic system can be useful in two ways: to quantify the effects of Berg winds on the microclimate and to complement any fire danger monitoring system. It can measure conditions at a higher temporal resolution, such as every 10 minutes, or hour – making it more useful for monitoring near real-time changes in fire danger.

The system could be valuable for operational use by agencies like the KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Disaster Management Centre, and could be applied in other regions vulnerable to fire risk.

Sheldon Strydom receives funding from Rhodes University, and the National Research Foundation.

Michael John Savage has received funding from the NRF.

– ref. Berg winds in South Africa: the winter weather pattern that increases wildfire risks – https://theconversation.com/berg-winds-in-south-africa-the-winter-weather-pattern-that-increases-wildfire-risks-260612

July 11, 2025

AI in health care could save lives and money − but change won’t happen overnight

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Turgay Ayer, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

AI will help human physicians by analyzing patient data prior to surgery. Boy_Anupong/Moment via Getty Images

Imagine walking into your doctor’s office feeling sick – and rather than flipping through pages of your medical history or running tests that take days, your doctor instantly pulls together data from your health records, genetic profile and wearable devices to help decipher what’s wrong.

This kind of rapid diagnosis is one of the big promises of artificial intelligence for use in health care. Proponents of the technology say that over the coming decades, AI has the potential to save hundreds of thousands, even millions of lives.

What’s more, a 2023 study found that if the health care industry significantly increased its use of AI, up to US$360 billion annually could be saved.

But though artificial intelligence has become nearly ubiquitous, from smartphones to chatbots to self-driving cars, its impact on health care so far has been relatively low.

A 2024 American Medical Association survey found that 66% of U.S. physicians had used AI tools in some capacity, up from 38% in 2023. But most of it was for administrative or low-risk support. And although 43% of U.S. health care organizations had added or expanded AI use in 2024, many implementations are still exploratory, particularly when it comes to medical decisions and diagnoses.

I’m a professor and researcher who studies AI and health care analytics. I’ll try to explain why AI’s growth will be gradual, and how technical limitations and ethical concerns stand in the way of AI’s widespread adoption by the medical industry.

Inaccurate diagnoses, racial bias

Artificial intelligence excels at finding patterns in large sets of data. In medicine, these patterns could signal early signs of disease that a human physician might overlook – or indicate the best treatment option, based on how other patients with similar symptoms and backgrounds responded. Ultimately, this will lead to faster, more accurate diagnoses and more personalized care.

AI can also help hospitals run more efficiently by analyzing workflows, predicting staffing needs and scheduling surgeries so that precious resources, such as operating rooms, are used most effectively. By streamlining tasks that take hours of human effort, AI can let health care professionals focus more on direct patient care.

But for all its power, AI can make mistakes. Although these systems are trained on data from real patients, they can struggle when encountering something unusual, or when data doesn’t perfectly match the patient in front of them.

As a result, AI doesn’t always give an accurate diagnosis. This problem is called algorithmic drift – when AI systems perform well in controlled settings but lose accuracy in real-world situations.

Racial and ethnic bias is another issue. If data includes bias because it doesn’t include enough patients of certain racial or ethnic groups, then AI might give inaccurate recommendations for them, leading to misdiagnoses. Some evidence suggests this has already happened.

Humans and AI are beginning to work together at this Florida hospital.

Data-sharing concerns, unrealistic expectations

Health care systems are labyrinthian in their complexity. The prospect of integrating artificial intelligence into existing workflows is daunting; introducing a new technology like AI disrupts daily routines. Staff will need extra training to use AI tools effectively. Many hospitals, clinics and doctor’s offices simply don’t have the time, personnel, money or will to implement AI.

Also, many cutting-edge AI systems operate as opaque “black boxes.” They churn out recommendations, but even its developers might struggle to fully explain how. This opacity clashes with the needs of medicine, where decisions demand justification.

But developers are often reluctant to disclose their proprietary algorithms or data sources, both to protect intellectual property and because the complexity can be hard to distill. The lack of transparency feeds skepticism among practitioners, which then slows regulatory approval and erodes trust in AI outputs. Many experts argue that transparency is not just an ethical nicety but a practical necessity for adoption in health care settings.

There are also privacy concerns; data sharing could threaten patient confidentiality. To train algorithms or make predictions, medical AI systems often require huge amounts of patient data. If not handled properly, AI could expose sensitive health information, whether through data breaches or unintended use of patient records.

For instance, a clinician using a cloud-based AI assistant to draft a note must ensure no unauthorized party can access that patient’s data. U.S. regulations such as the HIPAA law impose strict rules on health data sharing, which means AI developers need robust safeguards.

Privacy concerns also extend to patients’ trust: If people fear their medical data might be misused by an algorithm, they may be less forthcoming or even refuse AI-guided care.

The grand promise of AI is a formidable barrier in itself. Expectations are tremendous. AI is often portrayed as a magical solution that can diagnose any disease and revolutionize the health care industry overnight. Unrealistic assumptions like that often lead to disappointment. AI may not immediately deliver on its promises.

Finally, developing an AI system that works well involves a lot of trial and error. AI systems must go through rigorous testing to make certain they’re safe and effective. This takes years, and even after a system is approved, adjustments may be needed as it encounters new types of data and real-world situations.

AI could rapidly accelerate the discovery of new medications.

Incremental change

Today, hospitals are rapidly adopting AI scribes that listen during patient visits and automatically draft clinical notes, reducing paperwork and letting physicians spend more time with patients. Surveys show over 20% of physicians now use AI for writing progress notes or discharge summaries. AI is also becoming a quiet force in administrative work. Hospitals deploy AI chatbots to handle appointment scheduling, triage common patient questions and translate languages in real time.

Clinical uses of AI exist but are more limited. At some hospitals, AI is a second eye for radiologists looking for early signs of disease. But physicians are still reluctant to hand decisions over to machines; only about 12% of them currently rely on AI for diagnostic help.

Suffice to say that health care’s transition to AI will be incremental. Emerging technologies need time to mature, and the short-term needs of health care still outweigh long-term gains. In the meantime, AI’s potential to treat millions and save trillions awaits.

Turgay Ayer owns shares in Value Analytics Labs, a healthcare technology company. He received funding from government agencies, including NSF, NIH, and CDC.

– ref. AI in health care could save lives and money − but change won’t happen overnight – https://theconversation.com/ai-in-health-care-could-save-lives-and-money-but-change-wont-happen-overnight-241551

July 11, 2025

Muscle weakness in cancer survivors may be caused by treatable weakness in blood vessels – new research

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jalees Rehman, Department Chair and Professor of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, University of Illinois Chicago

Poorly functioning blood vessels lead to the characteristic muscle weakness that so many cancer patients experience. Artur Plawgo/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

Tumors can destroy the blood vessels of muscles even when the muscles are nowhere close to the tumor. That is the key finding of a new study that my colleagues and I recently published in the journal Nature Cancer.

Muscle loss in cancer patients is a major health problem, but the exact causes of how precisely tumors affect muscles remain an active area of research.

Scientists in my lab were curious whether one explanation for the muscle loss in cancer patients could be that the cancer impairs the blood vessels that are necessary to supply nutrients and oxygen to muscles. Healthy blood vessels ensure that blood containing oxygen and nutrients is transported from the heart to all tissues and organs in the body, and then circulates back to the heart. Unhealthy blood vessels lose the ability to circulate sufficient blood and develop leaks, with nutrients seeping into the tissue prematurely and thereby cutting off the supply of nutrients to tissues that are further downstream.

To tackle this question, my colleagues and I worked with several other scientific research teams with expertise in advanced microscopy, cancer research and metabolism. We used animal models to study several kinds of tumors – lung cancer, skin cancer, colon cancer and pancreatic cancer. We consistently observed that the blood vessels in the muscles became fewer and leakier even before the muscle weakness set in.

We also found that tumors release a protein called Activin-A, which acts on blood vessels to cause the leakiness and, ultimately, loss of blood vessels in the muscle. When we used a gene therapy to restore blood vessel health by counteracting the effects of Activin-A, we were able to prevent the muscle loss.

So we examined the muscles of patients who had passed away because of cancer and found that the muscles of cancer patients contained fewer blood vessels than expected.

Why Activin-A matters

Millions of cancer survivors struggle with muscle weakness, which can be so profound that they may have difficulties walking up a couple of flights of stairs or going shopping for groceries on their own.

Severe muscle weakness and muscle loss during cancer is called cancer cachexia, which occurs in up to 80% of patients with advanced cancer.

Recent research indicates that cachexia is far more common among cancer patients than previously suspected, with approximately half the patients who see their cancer doctor for the first time already showing signs of muscle weakness.

Importantly, cachexia can persist even after the cancer is successfully treated and cured. This can have a devastating impact on the quality of life for cancer survivors.

Our discovery that the loss of blood vessel function in the muscles occurs early on during the progression of the cancer suggests that fixing blood vessels in cancer patients and cancer survivors could be a new way to prevent or reverse cachexia.

The reasons for the muscle loss in cancer are complicated and involve poor nutrition due to loss of appetite and inflammation, which are initially caused by the tumor but persist even when the tumor is removed.

Older man leaning forward over his kitchen sink, suggesting he is not feeling well. — New research shows that lack of sufficient blood vessels could explain why many cancer survivors still experience muscle weakness even after the tumor is removed.
FG Trade/E+ via Getty Images

What other research is being done

There are currently no treatments approved by the Food and Drug Administration for cachexia, but new therapies are on the horizon.

One such therapy is an antibody drug that targets the molecule GDF-15, a protein that is thought to suppress appetite.

Other studies are using a combination of targeted nutrition and exercise programs to help patients with cancer cachexia regain muscle mass and muscle strength.

All these studies suggest that we will need a combination of approaches to enhance exercise, nutrition, appetite, muscle regeneration and – as we propose – blood vessel health.

What’s next

We are now evaluating drugs and exercise programs that are known to improve blood vessel health. Repurposing these treatments that are traditionally designed for cardiovascular patients could be a rapid way to help cancer patients regain muscle strength.

We hope that our work highlights how important it is for cancer patients to receive comprehensive medical care, which includes improving cardiovascular health and overall quality of life.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

Jalees Rehman receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.

– ref. Muscle weakness in cancer survivors may be caused by treatable weakness in blood vessels – new research – https://theconversation.com/muscle-weakness-in-cancer-survivors-may-be-caused-by-treatable-weakness-in-blood-vessels-new-research-259765

July 11, 2025

IRS says churches may endorse political candidates despite a decades-old federal statute barring them from doing that

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Lloyd Hitoshi Mayer, Professor of Law, University of Notre Dame

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo speaks at a church in Harlem during his failed campaign to become the Democratic nominee in the 2025 New York City mayoral race. Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images

Churches and other houses of worship can endorse political candidates without risking the loss of their tax-exempt status, the Internal Revenue Service said in a legal document the tax-collection agency filed on July 7, 2025. This guidance is at odds with a law Congress passed more than 70 years ago that’s known as the Johnson Amendment and applies to all charitable nonprofits, whether they are secular or religious.

The Conversation U.S. asked Lloyd Hitoshi Mayer, a law professor who has studied the regulation of churches’ political activities, to explain what this statute is, how the IRS seeks to change its purview and why this matters.

What’s the Johnson Amendment?

The Johnson Amendment is a provision that Lyndon B. Johnson added to a tax bill passed by Congress in 1954, when he was a senator. It says that any charity that wants to be tax-exempt under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code cannot “participate in, or intervene in … any political campaign on behalf of … any candidate for public office.” In the U.S., all houses of worship are designated as charities by the IRS.

The IRS has interpreted the Johnson Amendment for more than 70 years to mean that charities cannot speak in favor of political candidates or take any other action that supports or opposes them.

The IRS is prohibited from publicly disclosing audits of specific tax-exempt nonprofits under taxpayer privacy laws, so there’s no way to know the extent to which the law has been enforced. The public only learns about audits tied to possible Johnson Amendment violations if the nonprofit discloses that information or the IRS revoked their tax-exempt status.

However, the IRS did conduct a broad enforcement campaign in the 2000s known as the Political Activity Compliance Initiative. The reports it issued for 2004 and 2006 stated that it had audited hundreds of charities, including churches, for possible Johnson Amendment violations. The IRS generally found that most violations were minor and often inadvertent – warranting no more than a warning letter.

It’s unknown whether any nonprofits lost their tax-exempt status as a result of this initiative, which the IRS appears to have ended in 2008.

There’s only one known instance of a church losing its tax-exempt status because it violated the Johnson Amendment. In that case, a church in Binghamton, New York, published full-page newspaper ads criticizing Bill Clinton during his 1992 presidential campaign.

Why does the Trump administration want to change its enforcement?

The National Religious Broadcasters, two churches and another religious nonprofit sued the IRS in 2024, challenging the constitutionality of the Johnson Amendment on First Amendment free speech and free exercise of religion grounds and on Fifth Amendment due process grounds. The plaintiffs also argued that applying the Johnson Amendment to religious nonprofits violated the federal Religious Freedom Restoration Act.

The plaintiffs and the IRS filed a joint motion on July 7 to settle the case. They asked the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas to order the IRS not to enforce the Johnson Amendment against the two church plaintiffs. They also asked the court to incorporate in its order a statement that the Johnson Amendment does not apply to “speech by a house of worship to its congregation, in connection with religious services through its customary channels of communication on matters of faith, concerning electoral politics viewed through the lens of religious faith.”

This represents the first time the IRS has said there’s an exception to the Johnson Amendment for houses of worship. While lawmakers have periodically sought to repeal or modify the statute, neither chamber of Congress has ever passed such legislation.

President Donald Trump asserted during his first term that he had “gotten rid of” the Johnson Amendment. But that referred to his 2017 executive order that directed the Treasury Department – to which the IRS belongs – to respect freedom of religion with respect to religious organizations speaking about political issues as “consistent with law.”

Under the IRS interpretation of the Johnson Amendment at the time, it would not have been consistent with law for churches or other religious nonprofits to support or oppose candidates for elected public office.

How might the IRS treat religious political activity differently?

If the court approves this new joint motion, that order will only apply to the two churches that are plaintiffs in the case – not other religious nonprofits or the National Religious Broadcasters that joined them in suing the IRS. But the filing tells other houses of worship that the IRS will not enforce the Johnson Amendment against them for speech to their congregations, at least not during the Trump administration.

I think that the government may have a hard time applying this exception for several reasons.

The IRS will have to determine when a charity is a “church,” the term the IRS uses for a house of worship of any faith. That has become increasingly difficult in recent years, as some organizations that stretch the conventional definition of a church have won IRS recognition as such.

The IRS will also have to clarify what constitutes speech made “in connection with religious services” and what are “customary channels of communication.” For example, it’s unclear whether inviting a political candidate to address the congregation about how their religious faith relates to their candidacy falls within the exception.

Donald Trump shakes a woman's hand in a sanctuary with a large cross and several American flags. — Donald Trump participates in a community roundtable at a church in Detroit during his successful 2024 presidential campaign.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Will only conservative politicians benefit?

Establishing this exception does not necessarily give conservative politicians any advantages.

It is true that recent attempts to repeal or modify the Johnson Amendment are associated with conservative Christian groups such as the Alliance Defending Freedom, which represented the plaintiffs in this lawsuit.

But historically, many progressive houses of worship have also pushed against the Johnson Amendment, including Black churches that often serve as political as well as religious centers for their communities.

A Texas Tribune and ProPublica investigation documented apparent violations of the Johnson Amendment in the 2022 midterm elections by almost 20 churches in Texas from across the political spectrum. Interestingly, most of the church leaders involved were aware of the amendment.

Many said they were not violating it because they avoided explicitly endorsing candidates, while at the same time clearly expressing their support for specific candidates by, for example, praying for an individual who was identified to the congregation as a candidate.

How could this new guidance change political campaigning?

Americans generally don’t want to see churches get involved in politics, including majorities in most denominations. Nonetheless, church leaders of all stripes who were already inclined to support particular candidates will probably feel emboldened to explicitly endorse candidates when preaching to their congregations.

There are two ways that this new exception could do more than that.

First, it isn’t limited to sermons by pastors, priests, rabbis, imams and other religious leaders. It extends to any speech to a house of worship’s congregation “in connection with religious services through its customary channels of communication on matters of faith.” It therefore almost certainly includes church bulletins and other written materials distributed as part of a religious service.

What’s less clear is whether “customary channels of communication” includes people who watch religious services streamed over the internet or on TV, rather than just those who attend services in person.

Second, the change will increase pressure on church leaders to support candidates.

For example, George W. Bush’s 2004 campaign reportedly sought to recruit thousands of congregations to distribute campaign information. It’s natural to expect such efforts to multiply and become more direct for both Democratic and Republican candidates from now on.

And church leaders will also likely face pressure from politically active congregants to endorse candidates, and have a harder time resisting it.

Lloyd Hitoshi Mayer previously worked at the law firm of Caplin & Drysdale, Chartered, including when the firm represented All Saints Episcopal Church of Pasadena, California with respect to an IRS audit of the church for allegedly violating the Johnson Amendment. He was not personally involved in this representation.

– ref. IRS says churches may endorse political candidates despite a decades-old federal statute barring them from doing that – https://theconversation.com/irs-says-churches-may-endorse-political-candidates-despite-a-decades-old-federal-statute-barring-them-from-doing-that-260854