Victory in Gorton and Denton is historic for the Greens – and cataclysmic for Britain’s two-party politics

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics, University of Liverpool

The Green party’s dramatic capture of Gorton and Denton, supposedly one of Labour’s safest parliamentary constituencies, offers yet more evidence of the fragmentation of British politics.

The Green candidate, 34-year-old plumber Hannah Spencer, won 40.69% of the vote, a notable 12 points ahead of Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin (28.73%). Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia came third, with 25.44% of the vote.

In terms of size of majority toppled, this was the sixth-worst byelection defeat ever for Labour. Gorton had been Labour for more than 90 years. In what is now Greater Manchester, Labour has had to defend 20 seats at byelections since the second world war, and has been successful in 16 cases.

Although Labour might dismiss a byelection defeat as a mid-term blip, this is a government which has failed to enjoy a honeymoon period, led by a prime minister who has plumbed new depths in popularity ratings. It is also worth noting that turnout on Thursday was identical to that at the general election.

For Keir Starmer, it was a truly awful result. But Labour really lost this byelection over a month ago, when its national executive committee (NEC) blocked the candidature of Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and believed by many to be the one person who might have held the seat for the party.

Starmer spoke against Burnham standing and his view held sway at that NEC meeting by eight votes to one. The one vote in favour of Burnham standing came from a Manchester MP, Lucy Powell, who was elected Labour’s deputy leader last year after being mysteriously sacked from the cabinet by Starmer.

The prime minister had good reasons for his stance. An early exit by Burnham from the mayoralty would trigger a difficult byelection across the region. But the overarching reason for blockage appeared to be Starmer’s personal political security.

Popular among Labour members and perhaps the one rival to Starmer around which the parliamentary party could coalesce, Burnham might have offered a potential leadership challenge. He is also highly popular in Greater Manchester, averaging two-thirds of the vote in the three mayoralty contests he has fought. The newly elected Green MP Spencer trailed Burnham by a huge 375,000 votes in the most recent mayoral election in 2024.

Clearly, this poor result increases the pressure on the prime minister, but two things remain in his favour. First, Labour MPs may find it difficult to unite behind a clear challenger. Entry barriers are high; 80 MPs need to support the person prepared to raise their head above the parapet. Second, the economy is showing signs of improvement, which might eventually stem the flow to the Greens on the left. On the right, the exodus towards Reform may be slowed by the decline in net migration.

Yet things will get worse before they might get better for Labour. The Scottish parliament, Welsh senedd and English local elections are a mere 69 days away, and offer a bleak vista of large seat losses. Labour’s control of the senedd seems sure to end and the party has to defend the bulk of council seats being contested.

The end of two-party politics?

The Gorton and Denton result confirmed the death of old loyalties in British politics. Given the existence of four-party politics in Scotland and Wales and the electoral significance of the Liberal Democrats in England, the two-party duopoly has long been gone, perhaps never to return. Politics has never been as fragmented across parties.

For the first time in England, Labour finds itself challenged by a significant party of the left, while Reform on the right challenges both Labour and the Conservatives.

That the right vote is splintered offers some succour to Labour. An even split between Reform and the Conservatives could allow Labour to win again at the next general election, with an even more pitifully low percentage share of the vote than the one in 2024 which nonetheless yielded two-thirds of the Westminster seats.

This fragmentation may widen voter choice, but not all is healthy. This was at times a toxic byelection. The Greens argued it was possible to be jointly concerned with Gaza and Gorton. They were, however, accused of sectarianism, for example by by issuing Urdu-language leaflets and a campaign video showing Starmer greeting the Indian prime minister, Hindu nationalist Modi, to appeal to Muslim voters.

Reform, on the other hand, has been accused of racism in targeting the white vote and showing scant regard for the large Muslim minority within the constituency. Its candidate, former academic Matt Goodwin, was already controversial for his views questioning whether non-white people born in the UK could be classed as British.

Meanwhile, the first-past-the-post voting system struggles to deal with the reality of modern multiparty politics, with abject disproportionality between vote shares and levels of representation. But that fragmentation increasingly seems permanent.

The Conversation

Jonathan Tonge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Victory in Gorton and Denton is historic for the Greens – and cataclysmic for Britain’s two-party politics – https://theconversation.com/victory-in-gorton-and-denton-is-historic-for-the-greens-and-cataclysmic-for-britains-two-party-politics-277001

Tracey Emin: A Second Life – Tate Modern’s must-see retrospective explores trauma and transcendence

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of Westminster

The most powerful art speaks of and to the emotions. It tackles trauma and cathartically helps us to cope with it. It acknowledges pain, suffering and betrayal. It goes beyond an aestheticised veneer to raw emotion. It seeks to touch not just the eyes, but the soul.

The major retrospective of Tracey Emin’s career at London’s Tate Modern does just that, and features her most significant surviving works. It also reflects her characteristic subjects, techniques, materials and approaches.

The monumental bronze I Followed You to the End (2024), displayed on the approach to the Tate, is a foretaste of the anguished bodies in the statues within. These and the agonised black lines, floods of blood-red and bleak white backgrounds of paintings like Rape (2018) graphically engage with such traumatic experiences.

Emin made her name in the 1990s through dramatic installations and art that unflinchingly confronted the visceral realities of women’s bodies. These used her own body and experiences to create artworks that connected emotionally as raw cries of anguish. Or of lost innocence.

The latter comes out particularly in her short film Why I Never Became a Dancer (1995), deliberately placed near the start of the exhibition. In this, affectionate shots of Emin’s childhood hometown of Margate jarringly contrast with her narration of sexual abuse and misogyny.

This voiceover reflects Emin’s talent for pithy, poignant and allusive language. Appliqued into quilts such as Mad Tracey from Margate. Everyone’s Been There (1997), or expressed in the emotionally charged titles of artworks and neon signs, Emin’s words – as well as her body – confront her trauma.

Some of these works do so by foregrounding love, desire, longing, betrayal and abuse. Others resist the silence and stigma that have for so long shrouded women’s bodily functions.

The exploration of the soul

Throughout the exhibition, Emin’s work is deeply personal. Yet, by centring her own experience, Emin also humanises and universalises it. You don’t have to have had an abortion, or even be a woman, to respond emotionally to a work like The Last of the Gold (2002), publicly exhibited here for the first time.

Similarly, her textual contributions universalise the experiences of victimhood. Her handwritten memoir, Exploration of the Soul (1994), for example, movingly conveys a child’s attempt to understand the cruelty of unspoken racism.

Despite the trauma, throughout there’s an indomitable sense of defiance. Sewn into the quilt No Chance (WHAT A YEAR) (1999) a small text responds to her rapists pointing abusively at her: “I was only 13 and even then I knew they were pointing the wrong way.” In the same way, Why I Never Became a Dancer ends with Emin defiantly showing us her moves.

This combination of vulnerability and strength gives Emin’s work its emotional richness. This also comes out in her determination to document the trauma of her cancer. In works that take on the taboos around this disease, Emin depicts the procedures that our society squeamishly hides away in hospitals and the impact that these have had upon her body.

Of course, one of the most celebrated of her works does not directly feature her body but its absence. Yet My Bed (1998) is still a self-portrait of the traces of her life. Alongside the dishevelled bed and assorted detritus on and around it, what really struck me, seeing it for the first time, were the adjacent suitcases, packed and ready and the layered stories wordlessly conveyed in this installation. My Bed may on one level be an extended metaphor for struggling with depression, but the suitcases also speak of the will to escape.

Exorcism of the Last Painting I Ever Made (1996) is another even larger installation dealing with depression. It takes up an entire room in this exhibition. During pregnancy and in the aftermath of her abortions, Emin found it impossible to paint. The text behind the box containing this installation states: “I hated my body … I was suffering from guilt and punishing myself so I threw myself in a box and gave myself three and a half weeks to sort it out. And I did.”

The result is an insight into the artist’s studio as well as their body and mind. It reminded me of the installation of Francis Bacon’s studio in Dublin. Emin has cited the Norwegian painter Edvard Munch as a major influence, even holding an exhibition of her own work alongside that of Munch entitled The Loneliness of the Soul at the Royal Academy in 2021. Yet, to me, the comparisons with Bacon are more striking, both in the subject matters of sex and trauma and in the solemnity of their larger canvases.




Read more:
Francis Bacon: Human Presence – a compelling look at how the artist redefined portraiture


This was particularly marked in the final room. Throughout the exhibition the walls are painted a petrol blue, the same shade that Bacon used for oppressive interiors such as Man at a Washbasin (1954). This, combined with subdued lighting, produces a womb-like atmosphere. The intimacy this creates both heightens the emotional connection and impact on the viewer and shows Emin’s work to best effect.

It might seem odd to create such an ambience when so many of the artworks deal with trauma. Yet, although Emin observes what is happening to her body, literally in the case of I Watched Myself Die and Come Alive (2023) that fills the final wall of the final room, her art also has a detached, transcendent quality.

The spiritual atmosphere of that final room, with identically sized canvasses hung along it like altarpieces – including one of The Crucifixion (2022) – speaks through the spectral traces of bodies in the artworks more of the soul than the body, less of trauma than of the transcendence of pain.

Tracey Emin: A Second Life is at the Tate Modern from February 27 2026 to August 31 2026.


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The Conversation

Pippa Catterall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tracey Emin: A Second Life – Tate Modern’s must-see retrospective explores trauma and transcendence – https://theconversation.com/tracey-emin-a-second-life-tate-moderns-must-see-retrospective-explores-trauma-and-transcendence-277014

Des aliments africains contre l’inflammation pourraient aider les diabétiques

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Tendaiishe Berejena, Public Health Nutrition Researcher, University of South Africa

Les groupes d’aliments indigènes africains constituent un domaine passionnant à explorer en termes de goût et de nutrition. Ils pourraient même servir de thérapie nutritionnelle pour les personnes souffrant de problèmes de santé.

Des aliments tels que la mauve jute, le millet perlé et le millet à chandelle, le néflier sauvage, les chenilles et les noix de bambara ont tous des propriétés nutritionnelles qui pourraient être utiles dans la gestion de l’inflammation.

L’inflammation est la réponse naturelle du corps à une blessure ou à une infection. Elle nous aide à combattre les infections et déclenche le processus de guérison. Cependant, des problèmes surviennent lorsque l’inflammation persiste. Elle peut commencer à endommager les tissus sains et les vaisseaux sanguins, perturber la façon dont le corps utilise le sucre et les graisses, et affaiblir le système immunitaire. Au fil du temps, cette inflammation persistante peut entraîner des maladies telles que le diabète.

Le diabète de type 2 est une maladie chronique qui touche de nombreux adultes. Il provoque de graves problèmes de santé et un risque élevé de décès.

Le nombre de personnes atteintes de diabète dans le monde est passé de 200 millions en 1990 à 830 millions en 2022. La prévalence a augmenté plus rapidement dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire que dans les pays à revenu élevé. En 2021, le diabète et les maladies rénales liées au diabète ont causé plus de 2 millions de décès.




Read more:
Pourquoi l’insuline, cruciale face au diabète, reste inaccessible à des millions de patients


En tant que chercheurs en santé publique et en nutrition, nous nous intéressons particulièrement aux aliments fonctionnels, c’est-à-dire aux aliments qui présentent des bienfaits particuliers pour la santé. Notre expérience en matière de recherche sur la nutrition et la santé, ainsi que sur le métabolome végétal, nous aide à identifier les composés bioactifs présents dans les aliments qui peuvent contribuer à réduire l’impact des maladies chroniques.

Nous avons réalisé une revue de 46 articles de recherche sur le rôle des groupes alimentaires indigènes africains dans la prévention et la gestion du diabète sucré de type 2. Elle a examiné les propriétés anti-inflammatoires des groupes alimentaires africains en relation avec cette maladie.

Nous avons constaté que de nombreux groupes alimentaires africains réduisent considérablement le stress oxydatif lié au diabète de type 2. Le stress oxydatif survient lorsque l’organisme produit plus de molécules nocives liées à l’oxygène qu’il ne peut en neutraliser avec ses défenses antioxydantes naturelles. Cette surproduction d’oxydants perturbe les systèmes de contrôle cellulaires normaux. Nous avons trouvé plusieurs composés phénoliques dans ces groupes alimentaires africains qui confèrent des propriétés anti-inflammatoires.

Nos résultats fournissent des informations utiles pour concevoir des repas thérapeutiques traditionnels africains adaptés aux patients atteints de diabète de type 2 en Afrique.

Groupes alimentaires et diabète de type 2

Le régime alimentaire traditionnel africain se compose principalement de céréales, de légumineuses, de fruits, de légumes, de lait et de volaille, avec une importance particulière accordée aux insectes comestibles et une faible consommation de viande rouge.

De nombreux aliments indigènes tels que les feuilles d’okra, la morelle, l’amarante et le niébé sont sous-utilisés dans la cuisine et l’agriculture modernes. Ils sont également souvent considérés comme « la nourriture des pauvres ».

Au fil du temps, de nombreux Africains sont passés d’un régime alimentaire traditionnel africain, riche en fibres, en polyphénols et en antioxydants, à un régime occidental riche en sucre, en sel et en graisses malsaines. Ce changement a considérablement augmenté le risque de diabète de type 2.

Notre analyse a porté sur 46 études menées entre 2010 et 2023. La sélection de ces études a permis une évaluation complète de la manière dont les groupes d’aliments africains peuvent influencer l’inflammation associée au diabète sucré de type 2. Cette analyse met en évidence les mécanismes potentiels et les résultats pertinents pour la nutrition en matière de santé publique.

Nos résultats montrent que ces groupes d’aliments pourraient contribuer à atténuer l’inflammation chronique s’ils étaient inclus dans l’alimentation.

Insectes comestibles

Notre revue montre que les insectes comestibles tels que les fourmis, les chenilles, les grillons et les sauterelles libèrent des substances appelées enzyme de conversion de l’angiotensine et hydrolysats/peptides antioxydants.

Les peptides de sauterelle, en particulier, peuvent bloquer certaines enzymes impliquées dans la dégradation des sucres et des graisses. La dégradation d’une quantité excessive de sucres et de graisses peut entraîner des risques tels que la stéatose hépatique, le diabète, les maladies cardiaques et l’inflammation chronique.

Notre étude a également révélé que les composants bénéfiques communs aux insectes comprennent la chitine, les polyphénols, les antimicrobiens et les peptides/protéines. Ces composants peuvent aider à réduire le stress oxydatif chez les personnes atteintes de diabète.

Les chenilles ont une capacité antioxydante deux à cinq fois supérieure à celle du jus d’orange ou de l’huile d’olive. De même, les criquets ont des niveaux élevés d’antioxydants et de lipoxygénase. Les antioxydants sont essentiels pour protéger les cellules et la qualité des aliments. La lipoxygénase aide à produire des composés anti-inflammatoires qui favorisent la santé cellulaire et modulent l’inflammation. Ensemble, ils jouent un rôle essentiel dans le bien-être général.

Légumes

Nous avons découvert que les légumes à feuilles africains tels que le niébé, la morelle, l’amarante et les feuilles de gombo peuvent contribuer à réduire le taux de sucre dans le sang. Dans une étude, les patients atteints de diabète de type 2 qui ont consommé du blackjack (Bidens pilosa) ont vu leur glycémie à jeun baisser après le traitement. Le blackjack est un légume traditionnel en Afrique australe. Ses feuilles peuvent être cuites ou utilisées pour préparer du thé.

De même, l’amarante aide à réduire le taux de protéines totales lié aux problèmes rénaux chez les diabétiques.

Les légumes tels que les feuilles de niébé, la mauve de jute et la courge amère sauvage ont d’importantes propriétés anti-inflammatoires. La mauve de jute permet de réduire l’inflammation chez les patients diabétiques en stoppant la formation d’acide nitrique et en augmentant la production d’oxyde nitrique. La courge amère sauvage aide à réduire les niveaux de cytokines pro-inflammatoires.

Céréales/grains

Les petites céréales indigènes africaines contiennent naturellement des fibres, qui contribuent à réduire le taux de glucose.

Par exemple, le millet africain a une teneur élevée en fibres qui épaissit le contenu de l’estomac et réduit l’absorption du glucose. Une expérience sur les effets du millet africain sur des rats diabétiques a montré que les rats nourris avec du millet africain avaient un taux de glycémie à jeun plus bas que les rats diabétiques non traités. Des résultats similaires ont été observés avec le sorgho, qui améliorait la sensibilité à l’insuline et réduisait le diabète de type 2 chez les souris.

Notre étude a révélé que le sorgho contient des composés antioxydants tels que la lutéoline et la quercétine, qui peuvent contribuer à réduire l’inflammation chez les patients diabétiques. Il a été démontré que le sorgho à péricarpe rouge en Afrique réduit les niveaux d’inflammation chez les rats diabétiques. Cela suggère son rôle médical précieux.




Read more:
Afrique : faut-il viser l’autonomie alimentaire ?


Fruits

Notre étude a révélé que la figue de Barbarie peut permet de réguler la glycémie en bloquant certaines enzymes.

Une autre étude a montré que la poudre de fruit de baobab peut réduire la glycémie. De même, le néflier sauvage bloque l’activité enzymatique indésirable. Ces deux fruits offrent des solutions potentiellement plus abordables pour les patients diabétiques.




Read more:
Les super-aliments oubliés d’Afrique, une richesse à redécouvrir


Racines et tubercules

Le manioc contient une substance qui empêche les amidons alimentaires d’être efficacement décomposés et absorbés dans le tractus gastro-intestinal. Ce mécanisme peut contribuer à la gestion de l’obésité et à la régulation du taux de sucre dans le sang.

Des recherches indiquent que la consommation d’ignames ou de leurs extraits peut améliorer d’importants paramètres glycémiques. Ces bienfaits comprennent la réduction du taux de glycémie à jeun et la diminution du taux d’insuline.

De plus, les ignames et leurs extraits peuvent contribuer à réduire la graisse corporelle et à diminuer le taux de lipides sanguins. Ces améliorations peuvent réduire le risque de développer un diabète. De plus, lorsqu’elles sont fermentées, les ignames peuvent être très utiles pour améliorer le système de défense antioxydant et de moduler les médiateurs inflammatoires chez les patients diabétiques.

Les pommes de terre Livingstone montrent également des effets similaires en améliorant la santé rénale et hépatique chez les patients diabétiques. Des études en laboratoire suggèrent que ces racines peuvent aider à réguler le métabolisme du glucose, à améliorer la sécrétion d’insuline, à réduire la résistance à l’insuline, à améliorer la fonction des vaisseaux sanguins et à gérer les niveaux de stress oxydatif

Légumineuses

Les légumineuses les plus courantes dans l’alimentation africaine sont le niébé, les noix de bambara, le soja et les haricots mungo.

Nous avons découvert que le niébé aide à produire de l’insuline, qui est importante pour la gestion du glucose. Les arachides et les niébés contiennent tous deux des fibres solubles et insolubles, qui contribuent à réduire les pics de glycémie et le cholestérol, ce qui les rend utiles pour gérer le diabète de type 2.

Le soja améliore également la tolérance au glucose et la production d’insuline.

Nous avons également découvert que les haricots mungo peuvent réduire le cholestérol tout en stimulant la sécrétion d’insuline. En termes d’antioxydants, de nombreuses légumineuses peuvent lutter contre les radicaux libres, qui provoquent des inflammations chez les patients diabétiques.

Plus précisément, les arachides bambara ont une capacité antioxydante supérieure à celle des écorces d’orange.

La voie à suivre

Avec l’augmentation des coûts des soins de santé, de nombreuses personnes, en particulier dans les communautés marginalisées, sont confrontées à des difficultés financières. L’intégration de groupes d’aliments indigènes africains dans des repas adaptés sur le plan médical peut réduire les coûts de santé et améliorer le bien-être.

L’utilisation des ressources agricoles locales pour cultiver ces groupes d’aliments améliore la santé de la communauté, préserve les traditions culturelles et favorise une alimentation durable.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Des aliments africains contre l’inflammation pourraient aider les diabétiques – https://theconversation.com/des-aliments-africains-contre-linflammation-pourraient-aider-les-diabetiques-276130

Atmospheric dust: the overlooked suspect in urban air pollution

Source: The Conversation – France – By Emmanouil Proestakis, National Observatory of Athens

Cities are rapidly becoming the defining residential space of human life. Over 55% of the global population lived in urban areas in 2018, a proportion projected to reach nearly 68% by 2050, according to the United Nations (UN).

While this unprecedented urban growth fuels innovation and economic activity, it simultaneously concentrates human exposure to environmental stressors and intensifies urban environmental pressures. In this context, the World Health Organization (WHO) has underlined the multifaceted challenges and severe risks that poor air quality poses to socioeconomic activities and human health. And although emissions – such as NO₂, SO₂, CO₂ and O₃ – are the usual suspects when it comes to air quality degradation, our recent study highlights that atmospheric dust that accumulates over urban areas represents an additional and considerable, yet frequently overlooked, contributor to adverse health implications.

Mineral dust’s impact on Public health deserves more attention

Among the aerosol species contributing to air quality degradation, atmospheric dust originating from natural sources and anthropogenic activities is often considered less consequential. However, this assumption overlooks a growing body of research evidence reporting on airborne dust as a health hazard and neglects several important facts.

To begin with, dust is not a marginal component of the total aerosol load. By mass, dust is the second-most abundant aerosol type globally, surpassed only by sea-salt particles, and the dominant component of the atmospheric aerosol load over large continental areas.

More specifically, it has been estimated that natural sources – mainly arid and semi-arid areas – emit around 4,680 teragrams (Tg) (1 Tg= 1 billion kilograms) of dust into the atmosphere each year. Yet, this estimate does not account for all the dust present in the atmosphere.

Globally, natural processes contribute to approximately three quarters of the total dust load, with the remaining quarter linked to human activities frequently evolving around urban and highly industrialised areas, including transportation, infrastructure development, land-use change, deforestation, grazing and agricultural practices.

To put this into perspective, this staggering airborne dust mass exceeds 615,000 times the equivalent weight of the Eiffel tower released globally into the atmosphere each year.

Furthermore, these particles composing the atmospheric dust layers are far from uniform in size. Large-scale experiments, (designed to study atmospheric pollutants in detail) focusing on mineral dust and employing airborne in situ instrumentation have revealed that particles in wind-transported atmospheric layers range widely in size, from less than 0.1 μm (roughly the size of a SARS-CoV-2 virus (coronavirus) to more than 100 μm (approximately the diameter of a human hair).

More concerning is that accumulated evidence from epidemiological studies links airborne dust to multiple adverse health outcomes. While coarse mineral dust is often considered relatively harmless, typically causing minor skin irritation or allergic reactions even over long exposure periods, it is a completely different story when it comes to fine particles. Because of their small size, these fine particles allow for deep lung penetration that potentially triggers respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, allergic reactions, even cancer. Beyond these direct effects, scientists are still exploring the role of dust as a carrier for bacteria, as suggested by meningitis outbreaks in the Sahel desert.

Fine particles, big questions

These concerns naturally raise a series of questions: to what extent have the fine-mode and coarse-mode fractions of airborne dust changed over highly industrialised and densely populated urban areas in the past two decades?

Can we detect meaningful, increasing or decreasing temporal trends in these changes? Which major cities currently experience, or are likely to experience in the near future, dust concentrations exceeding WHO air quality safety thresholds?

Megacities under the microscope: 15 years of satellite observations reveal how dust levels are changing

To gain a better understanding of how much dust urban populations are actually breathing in, our recent study examined satellite-based Earth observations spanning over 15 years. We examined the accumulation and temporal dynamics of dust in the lowest atmospheric layer above the Earth’s surface in 81 of the world’s largest cities and urban areas (with populations exceeding 5 million), where human activity and exposure are most prevalent.
The results reveal several important takeaways:

  1. Atmospheric dust unequivocally poses a hazard to public health in a substantial number of major urban areas worldwide. Based on population data and projections provided by the UN approximately 9 out of 10 of the roughly 800 million people living in the 81 largest cities are exposed to dust levels exceeding annual-mean air quality safety thresholds. A clear geographic pattern emerges, with the most affected urban areas located in the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, East Asia, and the Sahel.

  2. Dust levels appear to be declining in most large cities. However, this encouraging, seemingly positive news comes with two important caveats: in many cases, the temporal declining trends are not statistically significant and frequently the overall dust burdens remain considerable. In other words, even where reductions are observed, they may not translate into meaningful reductions in health risk.

  3. Looking ahead to the near future, the challenge is unlikely to disappear. According to estimates provided by UN, urban populations in these megacities are projected to grow, reaching more than 1 billion people in the mid-thirties.

Consequently, atmospheric dust will remain an environmental health hazard, however, of a lower degree due to the apparent declining atmospheric load compared to present-day conditions, yet potentially affecting a larger number of individuals.

From science to policy: tackling the hazard of airborne dust

In response to mounting scientific evidence that airborne dust poses a risk to human health, countries are strengthening air quality legislation and launching national and international initiatives to confront dust-related challenges.

Efforts such as the World Meteorological Organization’s SDS-WAS, DANA and CAMS NCP among others, reflect growing collaboration to improve monitoring, modelling, and the translation of science into practical solutions. At the same time, governments are moving to align regulations with WHO recommendations.

For instance, the European Union’s revised Ambient Air Quality Directive explicitly recognises natural aerosols like dust as a cumulative health hazard. Together, advancing research, coordinated policy, and improved regulation provide a stronger foundation for action.

As urbanisation accelerates, tackling air quality, including atmospheric dust, is becoming central to protecting public health, strengthening urban resilience, and ensuring a more sustainable future for the world’s rapidly growing cities.


Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the Axa Research Fund – now part of the Axa Foundation for Human Progress – has supported over 750 projects around the world on key environmental, health & socioeconomic risks. To learn more, visit the website of the AXA Research Fund or follow @ AXAResearchFund on LinkedIn.


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The Conversation

Emmanouil Proestakis has been supported by the AXA Research Fund for postdoctoral researchers under the project entitled “Earth Observation for Air-Quality – Dust Fine-Mode (EO4AQ-DustFM).

– ref. Atmospheric dust: the overlooked suspect in urban air pollution – https://theconversation.com/atmospheric-dust-the-overlooked-suspect-in-urban-air-pollution-276422

How China is betting cheap AI will get the world hooked on its tech

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Nicholas Morieson, Research Fellow, Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University

VGC / Getty Images

Artificial intelligence (AI) is at a very Chinese time in its life. Recent moves from Chinese AI labs are throwing the dominance of American “frontier labs” such as Google and OpenAI into question.

Last week ByteDance, the company behind TikTok, released an AI video-generating tool called Seedance 2.0 which produces high-quality film-like clips from text prompts, with a casual disregard for copyright concerns. This week Anthropic, the US company behind the chatbot Claude, said three Chinese AI labs created thousands of fake accounts to harvest Claude’s answers in a practice called “distillation” which can be used to improve AI models.

These events have led to suggestions that China may be gaining the upper hand in the battle to dominate AI. So, is China winning the “AI race”?

Cheap, widely used tools

While most advanced frontier models are still made by American companies, China is pushing hard to develop cheap, widely used AI tools, which could create global dependence on Chinese platforms.

Reuters reports the industry is bracing for a “flurry” of low-cost Chinese AI models, with Chinese systems repeatedly driving usage costs down.

What’s the plan? China’s official AI policy documents suggest China sees AI as “a new engine for building China into both a manufacturing and cyber superpower”, and “a new engine of economic development”.

Since 2017, China has recognised that the technology is at the centre of “international competition”. “By 2030,” one key policy document says, China’s AI “technology and application should achieve world-leading levels, making China the world’s primary AI innovation center”.

This focus on becoming the dominant player in AI helps explain why Chinese firms are pushing hard on price. If you can make your AI cheap enough, you might just make it globally ubiquitous.

Cost helps determine who adopts AI first, and which models are first implemented in software and services. Even if the United States remains ahead on most elite benchmarks, Chinese products could still become globally influential if they are widely used and widely depended upon.

High-tech soft power

But China does not present its AI technology to the world as only benefiting itself. Instead, it’s pitched as a contribution to humanity.

A 2019 statement of “governance principles” from a national AI governance expert committee argues that AI development should enhance “the common well-being of humanity” and “serve the progress of human civilization”.

These phrases portray AI as a technology that advances the human story itself, rather than only serving Chinese interests. It suggests Chinese AI leadership is good for everyone.

This is an example of Chinese soft power. Tools such as Seedance may threaten Hollywood’s business model, but they do something else too. High-quality, low-cost generative media can spread quickly.

If Chinese systems become widespread, they can influence creators, developer habits, and platform dependencies, especially in non-Western markets that need affordable tools and may dislike American tech dominance.

The spread of the ‘Chinese model’

For liberal democracies such as the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada, the growth of Chinese AI tools creates a strategic headache. It will not be easy to manage security concerns about Chinese technology while avoiding technological isolation if Chinese AI tools become widely adopted.

There is a darker side to China’s AI tools. US think-tank Freedom House describes China as having the world’s “worst conditions for internet freedom”, and suggests other nations are now “embracing the ‘Chinese model’ of extensive censorship and automated surveillance”.

In 2022, the Cyberspace Administration of China issued rules for the algorithms that curate news feeds and short video platforms. Providers are required to “uphold mainstream value orientations” and “vigorously disseminate positive energy”.

These algorithms are important because they shape what people see and what is suppressed. As a result, these rules suggest the Chinese government is deeply concerned with controlling information across its social media platforms and AI tools.

A dilemma for third parties

Not every Chinese AI tool is a propaganda weapon. Rather, China is building world-class AI technology within an authoritarian system that prioritises the control of information.

This means China’s ability to make generative AI commercially powerful will likely also, despite its claims about serving “human civilisation”, make censorship and narrative management cheaper and easier.

China’s business and soft-power model is a much bigger story than just Seedance’s cavalier attitude towards copyright or Anthropic’s concerns about intellectual property. China’s goal is to build AI tools that rival those created by America’s tech giants, and to make them inexpensive and adopted globally.

For other countries, this may create a dilemma. Once a technology becomes a standard, it can be difficult to justify using a different product.

The question that remains is whether liberal democracies can adopt China’s low-cost products without drifting into dependence on systems shaped by an authoritarian political model.

The Conversation

Nicholas Morieson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How China is betting cheap AI will get the world hooked on its tech – https://theconversation.com/how-china-is-betting-cheap-ai-will-get-the-world-hooked-on-its-tech-276878

Michael Caine’s voice is iconic. Why would he sell that to AI?

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Amy Hume, Lecturer In Theatre (Voice), Victorian College of the Arts, The University of Melbourne

Few actors are imitated as often as Michael Caine. Even Michael Caine has imitated Michael Caine.

His voice has been used in birthday card greetings and been the source of jokes in various comedy sketches. It is synonymous with a certain type of Britishness.

Last week, artificial intelligence company ElevenLabs announced Caine has licensed his voice to the company. It will be available on their ElevenReader app, which allows you to listen to any text in a voice of your choosing, as well as being available on their licensing platform, Iconic Marketplace.

To understand why Caine’s voice is so iconic (and wanted by AI) we need to look deeper at what people actually hear in it.

Why do people love listening to Michael Caine?

Caine was born in London in 1933. His mother was a cook and a cleaner, and his father worked in a fish market. Caine speaks with a Cockney accent, setting him aside from most other actors of his generation.

Cockney hails from London’s East End and is often associated with London’s working class – think Eliza Doolittle from My Fair Lady, the Artful Dodger from Oliver!, or Bert the Chimney Sweep from Mary Poppins (although Dick van Dyke’s accent is not the most accurate, it’s still recognisably Cockney).

Traditionally, you were said to be a true Cockney if you were born within earshot of the Bow Bells – the bells of St. Mary-le-Bow church on Cheapside.

That distinctiveness matters because the accent carried heavy class meaning in mid-20th century Britain.

We don’t hear many contemporary examples of Cockney. Accents change and evolve over time and it has gradually been replaced by a new dialect called Multicultural London English (MLE).

While most actors of his age acquired a “stage accent” – known as Received Pronunciation (RP) – Caine made a conscious decision to hold onto his working-class roots and not change his accent. Instead, he built his career on it.

He once said,

I could’ve gone to voice lessons, but I always thought if I had any use […] I could fight the class system in England.

His accent became cultural capital and helped him land roles in Alfie (1966), The Italian Job (1969) and Jack Carter (1971). By the 1970s, he was a British cultural icon.

What do we hear when we hear celebrity voices?

Hearing a person’s voice is never just about acoustics. We hear social meaning: culture, identity, character and story.

Sociolinguist Asif Agha coined the term “enregisterment” to describe how a way of speaking becomes publicly recognised as signalling particular social types and values.

Over time, Caine’s voice has become enregistered as a recognisable Cockney accent associated with East London and historically linked to a working-class identity. Hearing his voice activates a socially shared register of meanings attached to Cockney.

This contrasts with, say, Queen Elizabeth II, whose accent was enregistered with royalty, prestige and wealth.

Another useful concept here is what sociolinguists sometimes call “dialectal memes”: the images and character types that circulate around particular accents. These memes are transmitted through books, television, film, and even celebrity figures themselves.

Caine has been a carrier of Cockney dialectal memes in popular culture.

When you look at it this way, AI voice licensing commodifies not just the acoustic properties of Caine’s voice, but the enregistered social meanings audiences recognise in it.

What AI licensing means for Caine

ElevenLabs describes its Iconic Marketplace platform as “the performer-first approach the entertainment industry has been calling for”. Through licensing, actors maintain ownership of their voices in a digital, AI landscape.

Caine licensing his voice theoretically ensures he receives credit and compensation, and prevents unauthorised clones appearing elsewhere.

It is possible this is exactly the direction actors want AI to go in – for use of their voice to be controlled by themselves, with clear credit and payment.

However, this model is not without risk to the actor or the listener. We should ask: do we need to hear something in Caine’s voice? Will we process information differently or hear it with more authority if it’s delivered in the voice of a cultural icon like Caine?

Giving power over to machines

People who admire Caine may want him to read to them. Some will be willing to pay for it. We need to remain conscious of the decisions we are making here.

In the 1960s, computer scientist Joseph Weizenbaum, creator of the world’s first chatbot, Eliza, warned about the dangers of forming relationships with machines. He was alarmed to see users confiding in Eliza and responding to the chatbot as if it actually understood them, even when they knew it did not.

What happens if an AI voice is not actually generic, but recognisably tied to a real human?

An actor’s likeness and voice may be protected with licensing, but their human self is not. That creates a pathway to attachment or even infatuation.

Caine is not just licensing his voice, but also the Cockney persona audiences recognise in it. Suddenly, a machine speaks with the authority of a real human behind it.

The Conversation

Amy Hume does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Michael Caine’s voice is iconic. Why would he sell that to AI? – https://theconversation.com/michael-caines-voice-is-iconic-why-would-he-sell-that-to-ai-276506

Les lésions cérébrales sont près de 10 fois plus fréquentes chez les personnes sans-abri. Il faut en tenir compte pour faire face à l’itinérance

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Mauricio A. Garcia-Barrera, Professor of Psychology, University of Victoria

Au Canada, 60 000 personnes n’ont pas d’endroit où dormir chaque nuit. Selon les estimations, plus de la moitié d’entre elles ont subi une lésion cérébrale au cours de leur vie, la plupart avant de vivre en situation d’itinérance. On évalue que 22,5 % d’entre elles ont une lésion cérébrale modérée ou grave, soit un taux près de dix fois supérieur à celui de la population générale.


De nombreux facteurs peuvent conduire une personne à ne plus avoir de domicile, notamment la maltraitance, la criminalité ou d’autres événements difficiles, qui peuvent tous être corrélés avec une lésion cérébrale. Celle-ci peut entraîner un trouble mental, la toxicomanie, de l’impulsivité ou de l’agressivité. Ces troubles peuvent à leur tour conduire au chômage, à une dislocation de la famille ou à d’autres causes connues de l’itinérance.

Le terme « lésion cérébrale acquise » désigne une lésion cérébrale survenue après la naissance, provoquée par une force physique externe (traumatisme crânien) ou par des problèmes internes, comme un accident vasculaire cérébral ou une infection (non traumatique). Plus la lésion est grave, plus l’atteinte est importante et plus les capacités cognitives risquent d’être affectées.

Déficit cognitif et itinérance

Au laboratoire CORTEX de l’Université de Victoria, nous effectuons des recherches sur les répercussions des lésions cérébrales.

Celles-ci entraînent souvent une série de troubles cognitifs, tels qu’un brouillard mental, de la fatigue, des difficultés de concentration et des problèmes de mémoire, qui perturbent l’apprentissage et le fonctionnement quotidien. Les fonctions exécutives, notamment les processus de prise de décision et de résolution de problèmes, peuvent être particulièrement affectées.

Si ces troubles ne sont pas diagnostiqués ni pris en charge, ils ont des répercussions sur tous les aspects de la vie : baisse des performances professionnelles et scolaires, détérioration des relations et érosion des mécanismes d’adaptation sains.

Garder un emploi, poursuivre des études ou gérer des responsabilités familiales peuvent alors constituer d’importants défis. Prendre ses médicaments, se rendre à ses rendez-vous ou accomplir des tâches telles que remplir un formulaire peuvent devenir des tâches presque impossibles. Les difficultés financières, les pertes interpersonnelles et le stress chronique ne font qu’aggraver ces difficultés.

Sans soutien adéquat, ces facteurs convergent, augmentant les risques de se retrouver en situation d’itinérance et de subir d’autres lésions cérébrales.

Lacunes systémiques dans les mesures de soutien

Nos recherches ont permis d’identifier plusieurs obstacles systémiques qui empêchent les personnes atteintes de lésions cérébrales de sortir du cycle de l’instabilité résidentielle et de l’itinérance.

La stigmatisation est omniprésente et peut nuire à la qualité des soins. Certains, ayant perdu confiance dans les systèmes et les prestataires de services, peuvent renoncer à demander de l’aide.

Les systèmes de santé et d’hébergement fonctionnent en vase clos. Les longues listes d’attente, les procédures administratives complexes et la faible coordination entre les organismes rendent l’accès aux services difficile, en particulier pour les personnes atteintes de lésions cérébrales qui peuvent avoir besoin de soutien pour remplir des documents, aller à des rendez-vous et exprimer leurs besoins.

De nombreuses personnes atteintes de lésions cérébrales comptent sur des programmes d’aide au revenu. La disparité entre les montants accordés et la hausse du coût de la vie suscite de plus en plus d’inquiétudes. Sur le marché locatif actuel, les logements « abordables » sont inaccessibles pour les personnes qui dépendent de tels programmes. Lorsqu’elles trouvent un logement, elles ne disposent plus que de ressources minimales pour subvenir à leurs besoins fondamentaux, une fois le loyer payé. Cette situation, conjuguée au sous-investissement dans les logements supervisés et de transition existants, réduit encore davantage l’offre de logements adéquats.

Que pouvons-nous faire ? Voici cinq solutions

Les observations de nos partenaires communautaires ont donné lieu aux recommandations suivantes visant à améliorer la santé et le bien-être des personnes en situation d’itinérance et atteintes de lésions cérébrales. Elles sont classées ci-dessous par ordre de priorité :

1. Fournir des logements accessibles et abordables

Les personnes atteintes d’une lésion cérébrale ont besoin de logements abordables et accessibles, assortis de soutien adéquat, tels que des modes de transport alternatifs, des environnements adaptés à leur âge et des options de vie flexibles. Une approche axée sur le logement, accompagnée d’une aide financière adéquate, leur apporte la stabilité nécessaire pour réussir leur intégration dans la collectivité.

2. Améliorer les ressources pour les prestataires de services

Une formation destinée aux professionnels de santé et aux employés des services publics en contact régulier avec des personnes sans-abri, comme les intervenants communautaires et les policiers, peut contribuer à améliorer la qualité des soins. Il est également essentiel d’étendre les services de santé liés aux lésions cérébrales aux personnes en situation d’itinérance, en mettant l’accent sur les services de dépistage et de diagnostic, qui permettent de les orienter vers des soins spécialisés.

3. Concevoir des services adaptés aux besoins

Les services de santé doivent prendre en compte les besoins fondamentaux qui sont souvent négligés. Par exemple, les prestataires devraient proposer des espaces de rangement, sans exiger de pièce d’identité, pour permettre aux patients sans domicile de ranger leurs effets personnels en toute sécurité pendant leurs rendez-vous, souvent nombreux après une lésion cérébrale.

4. Améliorer la collaboration et adopter une approche intégrée à long terme

En améliorant la communication entre les autorités sanitaires et les prestataires de services de logement, on peut faciliter la transition entre l’hôpital (après une lésion cérébrale) et le logement, et éviter ainsi que des patients se retrouvent à la rue après leur sortie. Le concept de prise en charge spécialisée est essentiel, car une équipe multidisciplinaire de professionnels de santé est nécessaire pour comprendre les besoins particuliers liés aux lésions cérébrales, aux troubles psychiatriques ou physiques, ainsi que la manière dont ces difficultés se combinent chez les personnes en situation d’itinérance. La continuité des soins est également cruciale, car les lésions cérébrales peuvent nécessiter un soutien à vie.

5. Réduire la stigmatisation grâce à l’éducation publique

Les campagnes d’éducation en santé publique apparaissent comme un moyen prometteur de sensibiliser le public et de réduire la stigmatisation. Sensibiliser à la corrélation entre les lésions cérébrales et l’itinérance pourrait nourrir la compassion.

Soutenir une stratégie nationale : projet de loi C-206

Le lourd fardeau que représentent les lésions cérébrales pour les personnes sans-abri est indéniable. Le projet de loi C-206, qui vise à mettre en place une stratégie nationale pour les lésions cérébrales, marque une étape importante dans la prise en charge de ces lésions au Canada, et par le fait même, dans la lutte contre l’itinérance.


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La législation vise à améliorer la prévention, le traitement et le soutien à la réadaptation de millions de Canadiens victimes de lésions cérébrales. Le projet de loi met l’accent sur la collaboration, l’éducation du public et la fourniture de soins aux personnes et à leurs familles qui doivent apprendre à vivre avec les conséquences d’une lésion cérébrale. Une stratégie nationale aura une incidence visible pour les personnes touchées, ainsi que pour l’ensemble de nos collectivités.

La Conversation Canada

Mauricio A. Garcia-Barrera reçoit des fonds de recherche liés aux travaux mentionnés dans cet article de l’ancien ministère de la Santé mentale et des Dépendances de la Colombie-Britannique, de la Vancouver Foundation, de Michael Smith Health Research BC et de Mitacs.

Cole J. Kennedy reçoit des fonds pour les recherches mentionnées dans cet article du ministère de la Santé mentale et des Dépendances de la Colombie-Britannique, de la Vancouver Foundation, de Michael Smith Health Research BC, de Mitacs et de la BC Brain Injury Association. Il bénéficie également du soutien d’Island Health et des Instituts de recherche en santé du Canada.

Grace C. Warren reçoit des fonds du Conseil de recherches en sciences humaines du Canada dans le cadre d’une bourse d’études supérieures de maîtrise.

– ref. Les lésions cérébrales sont près de 10 fois plus fréquentes chez les personnes sans-abri. Il faut en tenir compte pour faire face à l’itinérance – https://theconversation.com/les-lesions-cerebrales-sont-pres-de-10-fois-plus-frequentes-chez-les-personnes-sans-abri-il-faut-en-tenir-compte-pour-faire-face-a-litinerance-276555

Four years of bitter conflict in Ukraine

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.


It would be wrong to say Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, four years ago this week, came out of the blue. For months there had been worrying reports of a huge build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border. Through the winter of 2021/22, Moscow scoffed at suggestions it was planning to invade its neighbour as “alarmist”. But at the same time the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, was making aggressive noises, issuing demands for Nato to pull its troops back from its eastern front and calling for a ban on Ukraine’s accession to the western alliance.

And on February 21, he made a speech in which he called Ukraine “an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space” which had been taken over by a neo-Nazi “puppet regime” that should be removed.

Still, it was a shock to wake in the early hours of Thursday February 22 to learn that Putin had launched what he called a “special military operation … to protect people who have been subjected to abuse and genocide by the Kyiv regime for eight years”. Images began to emerge of tanks and armoured vehicles with the now-familiar “Z” (a Russian victory symbol) streaming across the borders from Russia and Belarus, the latter the shortest route to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.

A diagram showing the build-up of Russian troops near the Ukraine borders at the end of 2021.
How Russian forces assembled in the winter of 2021/22, according to US intelligence sources.
US intelligence reported in the Washington Post.

Four years and about 1.8 million casualties later, Russia has gained about 75,000sq km of territory, about 12% of Ukraine to add to the 7% it had occupied since it annexed Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014. The war has developed into a “meat-grinder” – Russia’s advances have been glacially slow and very costly, an estimated 78 casualties per square kilometre in 2025.

But if, as many insist, the war on the battlefield itself has slowed into something resembling a stalemate, the geopolitical shifts that have accompanied the conflict have been considerable – particularly since Donald Trump was elected for a second term as US president, promising to end the conflict, “in a single day”. Of course, like many of his campaign promises this has proved to be pie in the sky, but the US president’s cordial relations with Putin, his decision to curtail US financial aid to Kyiv and his apparent support for many of the Russian president’s war aims have come as an unpleasant surprise for Ukraine and its allies.

Another big feature of this war, the biggest armed conflict in Europe since 1945, has been the huge technological changes we’ve seen employed on the battlefield. Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko call it the “drone war”, as both sides have become heavily reliant on unmanned autonomous vehicles (UAVs) for both combat and reconnaisance. Wolff – an expert in international security at the University of Birmingham – and Malyarenko – of the National University Odesa Law Academy – have been regular contributors to our coverage of the conflict since February 2022.

This week they are part of a panel of experts analysing the four years of conflict, alongside Wolff’s colleague Mark Webber as well as Scott Lucas of University College Dublin, both also regular contributors. They have looked into the key issues raised by the four years of conflict, including the way the war has been prosecuted, the involvement of the US president and the potential for China and/or Europe to break the stalement: Beijing potentially abandoning its support for Moscow or Europe vastly increasing its support for Ukraine in an attempt to tip the balance in Kyiv’s favour.




Read more:
Ukraine war: after four surprising years, where does it go next? Experts give their view


It’s hard to imagine any reasons to be cheerful about the conflict. But optimists may take heart at the prospect of trilateral talks in March between Ukraine, Russia and the US. Realistically the prospect of the talks achieving anything significant seem pretty bleak at present. Russia continues to take Ukrainian territory and even if these are snail’s pace advances, Putin will consider that they add leverage to Russia’s negotiating position. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, will consider that the cost of this slow pace of advance, both in terms of casualties and the damage the war is now certainly doing to Russia’s economy, are good reasons to keep going. Surveys suggest he is supported in this by the majority of Ukrainians.

In the end it will probably be sheer exhaustion that forces and end to the conflict, writes Alex Titov of Queen’s University Belfast. Without the wholehearted support of the US president, Ukraine cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield. And, despite the massive advantage in manpower, Russia is really beginning to feel the
effects of this war of attrition – both on the health of its economy and its ability to attract enough new recruits to replace the casualties who are being either killed or wounded faster than they can be replaced. For this reason alone, Titov sees chinks of light in what is a very dark time.




Read more:
Ukraine: after four years of war, exhaustion on both sides is the main hope for peace


Let’s share Titov’s cautious optimism for the present. Say a peace deal is struck sometime soon, Ukraine is faced with a massive task of rebuilding. The most recent World Bank estimate is that this will take more than a decade and cost around US$588 billion (£435 billion). The biggest and most immediate question facing Kyiv and its allies, writes Olena Borodyna, a senior geopolitical risks advisor at ODI Global is how this can be funded.

The consensus is that Ukraine will need to find ways to incentivise private-sector investment in reconstruction, something for which Borodyna sees varying amounts of enthusiasm for from Ukraine’s partners and friends. Part of the problem is the volatile security situation, which represents a considerable risk moving forward. Add to that the corruption which has dogged Ukraine since well before the invasion and the incentive to invest looks very shaky indeed.

Another big problem, she writes, is that so many Ukrainians left the country since February 2022, which has caused acute labour shortages. The challenge of persuading people to return will be paramount and here again, the lack of security will work against Ukraine.

There is also the strong possibility that political developments in Europe could affect the level of support for Kyiv, with elections in countries such as France, Italy and Denmark. There are already several EU members which are pretty openly hostile to the notion of supporting Ukraine, including Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary – the latter is already trying to obstruct a vital €90 billion (£78 billion) to help cover Ukraine’s needs for 2026 and 2027.

Peace deal or not, it’s a long and hard road ahead for Ukraine.




Read more:
The three big challenges facing Ukraine when the war ends


But adversity can often be inspiring. Hugh Roberts, an expert in language and culture at the University of Exeter, has been charting the upsurge in Ukrainian poetry since the invasion. He has unearthed two poets who have come to represent this cultural renaissance: Yaryna Chornohuz and Artur Dron’.

Both have served in Ukraine’s armed forces. Chornohuz is still a drone operator of the Ukrainian Marine Corps in the frontline city of Kherson. Dron’ signed up in February 2022, four years before he reached the age of conscription. He’s now a veteran following serious injury. The words of both are available in English and both have been recognised with major literary awards in their home country.

Roberts gives us some of their most moving lines.




Read more:
Lines from the frontline: the poet soldiers defending Ukraine


Death in Mexico

Also this week, we heard of the death of Mexican drug kingpin Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as El Mencho, in what was reportedly a massive military operation involving what appears to have been hundreds of troops and the killing of 74 people, including 25 national guard officers.

Repercussions will continue for some time, writes Raul Zepeda Gil, an expert in crime and conflict at King’s College London. The apprehension or killing of a cartel boss often causes a spike in violence as other criminal groups try to cut in on the cartel’s operations. There also likely to be a bitter and violent power struggle within El Menche’s organisation, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).




Read more:
Mexico may pay a steep price for the killing of Jalisco cartel leader El Mencho


There has already bee speculation that Oseguera may be succeeded by his wife, Rosalinda González Valencia. Otherwise known as “La Jefa” (the boss), she is alleged to control the cartel’s finances, although apart from a five-year jail spell for money laundering, there has reportedly never been enough evidence of the wrongdoing of which she is suspected to charge her with anything else.

Adriana Marin, who specialises in terrorism, organised crime, and transnational threats in Latin America, examines the prominent role some women have played in organised crime gangs.




Read more:
La Jefa: the wife of slain drug kingpin El Mencho and the women at the heart of the cartels



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The Conversation

– ref. Four years of bitter conflict in Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/four-years-of-bitter-conflict-in-ukraine-277000

Self-control is a strength, but being too good at discipline can backfire

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Christy Zhou Koval, Professor, Smith School of Business, Queen’s University, Ontario

Self-control has long been regarded as one of the strongest predictors of success. Most of us can picture that colleague who never misses a deadline, volunteers for extra projects and keeps everything running smoothly.

Research shows individuals who can resist short-term temptations in pursuit of long-term goals tend to fare better across nearly every aspect of life.

As a researcher who has spent years studying workplace dynamics, I set out to examine what happens to these highly disciplined individuals. What I found was surprising: the very trait that makes them valuable — their high levels of self-control — can also come with hidden costs.

Self-control as a social signal

My colleagues and I conducted six studies examining how people treat others based on their perceived self-control. We defined perceived self-control as a person’s beliefs about someone else’s level of self-control, such as resisting temptations, staying focused and persisting in the pursuit of goals.

Across our studies, self-control functioned as a powerful social signal.

In one study, participants read about a student who either resisted the temptation to purchase music online (demonstrating self-control) or gave in to it, then imagined working with this student on a group project. Participants expected substantially higher performance from the student who had demonstrated self-control, even though resisting an impulse to buy music had nothing to do with academic ability.

We replicated this pattern in a workplace context. Participants read about an employee who either stuck to a savings goal or struggled with it. Even though saving money has nothing to do with job performance, participants expected the self-controlled employee to have an accuracy rate roughly 15 per cent higher than the employee who showed less self-control.

In another experiment, we asked people to delegate proofreading work among student volunteers. Participants consistently assigned about 30 per cent more essays to volunteers they believed had high self-control, compared to those with moderate or low self-control, even when all volunteers were described as academically qualified.

The hidden costs of high self-control

A particularly revealing set of findings suggests that observers typically underestimate the cost of self-control.

In one study, we asked participants to complete a demanding typing task requiring a high degree of self-control. Observers who were told that someone had high self-control estimated the task required less effort. But those actually doing the work found it equally draining regardless of their self-control levels. This perceptual gap is problematic because it demonstrates that exerting self-control is physically costly.

Recent research shows people will pay money to avoid having to exercise self-control. In experiments where dieters could pay to remove tempting food from their presence, most did; and they paid more when stressed or when temptation was stronger.

High self-control individuals are doing more cognitively demanding work than their peers. They are exercising self-control more frequently. And because they do it well, observers don’t see the effort required. Research suggests that people with high self-control are perceived as more robot-like, as if their discipline means they don’t struggle like everyone else.

In one of our studies using 360-degree feedback data, we analyzed archival survey data collected from MBA students and their coworkers and supervisors.

Employees who were higher in self-control reported making more personal sacrifices and feeling more burdened by coworkers’ reliance. Their colleagues, however, did not recognize this burden. While they acknowledged the sacrifices these individuals made, they did not perceive the strain they were under.

The spillover into home life

The more capable you seem, the more you’re asked to carry. For high self-control individuals, that reputation can become a fast track to burnout in the office and at home.

In an experiment with romantic couples, participants with high self-control reported feeling more burdened by their partners’ reliance on them. This sense of burden reduced their overall relationship satisfaction.

When people high in self-control are overwhelmed at home because partners assume they can handle everything, that exhaustion can carry over into work. Similarly, when high self-control individuals are overburdened at work, it can diminish their energy and presence in their personal relationships.

This creates a vicious cycle in which highly self-controlled individuals are asked to do more at both work and at home, and the cumulative demands can result in burnout.

Burnout is a widespread issue in the workplace. A Deloitte survey found that 77 per cent of professionals have experienced burnout at their current job.

Breaking the cycle

Our findings revealed a problematic cycle: the more self-control individuals were perceived to have, the more others expected of them and the more responsibility they were assigned.

For people with high self-control, our findings underscore the importance of setting boundaries in the workplace. Saying yes to everything is unsustainable. Because disciplined employees often make demanding tasks appear effortless, colleagues and loved ones may underestimate how much they are asking of them.

For managers, our findings suggest the importance of distributing responsibilities fairly and checking in with employees about workload. Managers should ask explicitly about their employees’ capacity rather than inferring it from past performance.

Self-control remains one of the most valuable traits a person can have. But when we assume it comes effortlessly to those who demonstrate it, we risk burning out the people we depend on most. Acknowledging the hidden burden is necessary if we want capable people to thrive.

The Conversation

Christy Zhou Koval does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Self-control is a strength, but being too good at discipline can backfire – https://theconversation.com/self-control-is-a-strength-but-being-too-good-at-discipline-can-backfire-275634

How Canada-Cuba relations must navigate the dangers of the U.S. embargo

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Luiz Leomil, PhD candidate, Political Science, Carleton University

The United States government recently announced it will allow companies to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba amid a severe fuel shortage on the island. Earlier this year, the U.S. cut off oil shipments to Cuba from its main supplier, Venezuela, after American forces abducted that country’s president.

Cuba’s ambassador to Canada, Rodrigo Malmierca Diaz, recently told Canadian MPs on the House foreign affairs committee that the U.S. was “suffocating an entire people.” He was referring to the decades-long American embargo against Cuba, which has become even more severe in recent weeks.

In his remarks, Diaz also urged Canada to follow through on a promised aid package to Cuba. Canadian officials have committed to sending an additional $8 million, which will be channelled through international aid organizations operating in Cuba.

This represents a modest and indirect commitment, especially in comparison with the initiatives undertaken by other countries. Mexico has sent more than 2,000 tons of direct humanitarian aid while continuing diplomatic talks on resuming oil supplies, and other countries in the Global South are reportedly preparing similar, more tangible responses.

In January, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a widely praised address in Davos, Switzerland, that many saw as an apt diagnosis of the failings of the U.S.-led “rules-based international order.” In it, he urged middle powers such as Canada to act with greater honesty and consistency, applying the same standards to allies and rivals so that states can co-exist in an international order that actually functions as advertised.

The Davos speech set high expectations. These are now, however, fading as Carney’s government wavers in sending robust aid to the people of Cuba and in denouncing the most recent unlawful coercive measures imposed by the U.S.

Explaining restraint

Canada has crafted a longstanding image as one of the largest humanitarian contributors in the world. It also has historical and economic ties with Cuba. Canada was one of the few American allies to maintain diplomatic relations with Cuba following the 1959 revolution that overthrew the U.S.-backed regime.

Cuba is Canada’s top market in the Caribbean, and Canada is the Cuba’s largest source of tourists as well as its second-largest source of direct investment. Canada is also among the overwhelming majority of United Nations member states that regularly vote in support of resolutions condemning the U.S. blockade.

However, three factors help explain the gap between the Canadian government’s rhetoric and its actions.

First, geopolitical constraints are significant. Like other middle powers, Canada’s freedom to act in open defiance of the U.S. is tightly limited. Canada’s fundamental economic and security interests are reliant on the U.S., and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Canada is open to a high risk of American retaliation if it chooses to aid Cuba. Such risk is even more heightened under the Trump government, which has demonstrated a willingness to use coercive measures against Canada.




Read more:
3 ways Canada can navigate an increasingly erratic and belligerent United States


Second, domestic politics shape foreign-policy choices. Contrary to simplified assumptions in classical international relations theory, state behaviour is not determined only by systemic incentives but also by domestic constituencies and how important particular issues are to segments of the population.

In Canada today, there is no broad public movement demanding robust government aid to Cuba. By contrast, there are vocal constituencies mobilized in support of Ukraine that keep assistance to that country politically salient and prioritized.

Third, officials in Global Affairs Canada have long favoured taking what they regard as a pragmatic approach toward Cuba. That posture helps explain Canada’s reluctance to provide direct, high-profile assistance during acute shortages or crises.

Canada did not intervene during Cuba’s 2024 blackout crisis, for example. On the other hand, the same approach has also led Canada to be less critical of political issues in Cuba, unlike its firmer stance toward the Venezuelan or Nicaraguan governments.

This approach has generally allowed Canada to preserve a baseline level of diplomatic engagement and safeguard economic and strategic interests. In recent years, this posture has become partly institutionalized within Global Affairs Canada and is regarded as the most workable and sustainable policy line.

Aid by proxy, unfulfilled commitments

In recent years, Canada has preferred to send assistance to Cuba through international aid organizations, but these efforts are unlikely to be sustainable given the scale of the humanitarian needs the country may face.

It remains unclear whether Canada will adopt a more robust strategy, departing from this established approach, to support Cubans. While facing their own constraints, it’s more likely that leadership in countries from the Global South, including Mexico, China and Brazil, will take action.

The outcome is twofold. Not only is the Canadian government failing to live up to a humanitarian image it has promoted on the world stage, but the international community also applauded a Davos speech that was both conflicting and somewhat disingenuous.

At times in his speech, Carney was realistic and incisive, exposing the weaknesses in the United States-led rules-based order. At key moments, however, Carney suggested that Canada still supported those rules and was willing to defend them through a more honest and equitable approach. Here, the tension between diagnosis and prescription was never resolved.

When it comes to the U.S. blockade of Cuba, Canada’s options are widely perceived as limited, and the country is seen as being forced to “go along to get along,” as Carney said in Davos. However, the blockade also presents Canada with an opportunity to showcase how middle powers can chart their own course.

Carney also said middle powers have the “the capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home and to act together.” If Canada continues to equivocate on Cuba, Carney’s speech will come to reflect a familiar pattern in Canadian foreign policy: rhetorical candour about global inequities combined with reluctance to challenge them.

The Conversation

Luiz Leomil does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How Canada-Cuba relations must navigate the dangers of the U.S. embargo – https://theconversation.com/how-canada-cuba-relations-must-navigate-the-dangers-of-the-u-s-embargo-276875