Source: The Conversation – UK – By Christopher Featherstone, Associate Lecturer, Department of Politics, University of York
The release of the “Mandelson files” comes at a difficult moment in relations between the US and UK. It is unlikely to ease tensions.
The UK government has submitted to pressure from MPs to disclose files relating to the hiring and vetting of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US. Questions have been raised about how much officials, including the prime minister, Keir Starmer, knew about Mandelson’s friendship with paedophile Jeffrey Epstein after his conviction for sex offences in 2008.
The key takeaway from the release doesn’t relate to the US president, Donald Trump. This is that Mandelson tried to negotiate a severance package worth £547,201 after being asked to leave his post in Washington. He ended up getting £75,000. But there are details in the documents that will not be welcomed by the US, and the nature of the release will be of concern to a White House already under pressure for its own approach to Epstein.
Trump has already spent recent weeks publicly criticising Starmer for failing to support him on Iran, saying Starmer is no “Winston Churchill”. The release of these files may well lend further opportunity for Trump to hit out.
Lack of control
The questions about how much Starmer knew about Mandelson and Epstein arose in the first place after the US government partially released the Epstein files in January. These included email exchanges between Mandelson and Epstein revealing a relationship that extended long after the latter’s conviction. They have also led to a police investigation over communications made between the two men while Mandelson was a government minister. These allegedly relate to sensitive government information rather than anything relating sex offences.
Trump will not like the fact that this release has brought the Epstein files back into the spotlight – and particularly that it is happening in circumstances beyond his control.
Trump has repeatedly called for the Department of Justice to “move on” from this story, having faced questions about his own relationship with Epstein. He recently attacked CNN journalist Kaitlan Collins for not smiling as she asked him questions about the Epstein files, in a clear attempt to distract public attention.
There is a risk that the Mandelson document release will renew pressure on Trump to release the full cache of documents held by the US government – and that he will seek to divert attention by lashing out again at Starmer.
Unsurprisingly, given that many of these released documents were written for private consumption, they contain some comments that may be embarrassing for the authors and subjects.
In the documents, we can see the UK government reviewed public comments Mandelson made condemning Trump policies prior to his appointment as ambassador, apparently to consider whether they were a problem during the vetting process.
When speaking to students in Hong Kong, Mandelson said: “it’s also necessary to recognise Mr Trump’s behaviour for what it is: he is a bully and mercantilist who thinks that the US will gain in trade only when others are losing”. Trump will likely be annoyed by this attack on his treasured “tariffs” policy.
Crucially, given that Starmer appointed Mandelson despite these comments, these documents also show that the UK government did not object to Mandelson’s view.
London v Washington
The release from the UK will fuel a debate that has begun on the difference between how London and Washington have both responded to the the revelations in the Epstein files. The Trump administration continues to refuse to release its own files in full – and continues to be accused of covering up Trump’s relationship with Epstein.
The UK government has demonstrated that it is willing to fire people over their relationships with Epstein and that it won’t protect them from police investigation. Now it has shown willingness to release files showing how much the government knew about these relations. This is of course not the full release of files and Starmer insists several key items can’t be released because they are part of an ongoing police investigation, but it still leaves space for criticism of the US.
Trump and his administration will have been hoping that media attention would move on, focusing on the controversial airstrikes on Iran, or continuing ICE raids across US cities. It will not welcome inevitable comparisons between its unwillingness to act on revelations from the Epstein files – or to keep releasing more files – and the UK government’s decision to do both.
Crucially, US government officials will be watching for further document releases to see if this situation gets any worse.
Christopher Featherstone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Ian Campbell, Associate Professor in Sociology (Race and Inclusion in sport and in education), University of Leicester
For black female professional footballers, racism has become a distressingly regular part of the game. Earlier this year, England defender Jess Carter told the BBC that the racist abuse she received online during the 2025 Euros made her fearful to leave her hotel room.
Black sportswomen routinely deal with racial abuse from fans and teammates. But less discussed is how their bodies, emotions and on-pitch performances are spoken about by sports commentators. It’s not just negative comments, either. Clear racial stereotypes emerge when comparing positive comments about black players with those about white players. Our 2025 study examines commentary during the 2019 Fifa Women’s World Cup, does just that.
We analysed 2,905 comments of praise given to footballers during 80 hours of BBC and ITV coverage, across all 52 matches at the tournament. We found that white women were more frequently praised for their intelligence and technical proficiency, while black women received the most praise for their perceived physical prowess and natural athleticism.
White players were more frequently praised skills learned through practice, such as having a “lovely technique” (49.4% of all comments about white players), followed by physical (20.3%), character (16.2%), cognitive (10.8%) and natural (3.3%) abilities.
Black players received almost double the amount of praise for their physical prowess (39.5% of comments about black players) and natural abilities (5.8%). They received notably fewer praise comments for learned skills (36.8%), as well as lower amounts of praise for character (11.9%) and cognitive attributes (6.0%).
These differences were especially noticeable in the coverage of national teams from white-majority countries that had more than two black players in their starting squad. England’s two non-white players (accounting for 18.2% of the team) received 50% of all of their team’s praise for natural attributes. These were comments praising qualities that were perceived to be innate, such as being a “magician” on the pitch. England’s visibly white players (81.8% of the team) received almost the entire amount of the praise given to the whole team for cognitive attributes (96%).
Jess Carter discusses her experiences with racism.
France’s black players, who accounted for 43% of team, received 90% and 85% of the team’s total praise for natural and physical attributes, respectively. White French players, who similarly constituted 43% of the playing squad, received 68% of the teams’ total praise for intelligence.
We also found that black female players were more likely to be described as being angry and emotionally unstable during matches. Nigeria’s forward Desire Oparanozie was described as “playing with a bit of anger” and England’s Nikita Parris was said to be unable to maintain her composure, with a tendency to frequently “make her feelings known”.
Their white teammates, on the other hand, were described as calm and composed.
During the England v Cameroon match, commentators praised the almost entirely white England team for keeping their composure and not “reacting” to “unseemly things going on the pitch” by the African players.
The harm of misogynoir
Black women experience a unique form of discrimination called misogynoir. It is different to the exclusions faced by white women and the racism experienced by black men. It is the result of a combination of the misogyny directed at their gender and the anti-black racism directed at their race.
Sport media is a powerful site where the gender and racial stereotypes that exist in society are replicated. It has a long history of portraying black sportswomen as powerful, hyper-masculine and angry.
Studies have shown that black sportswomen are frequently stereotyped as unfeminine, masculine and strong, lacking intelligence, emotionally unstable, inherently angry and overly aggressive. Conversely, white women are seen to embody Eurocentric beauty standards and accepted feminine ideals, such as notions of purity, grace, emotional stoicism and delicacy.
These stereotypes have real-life consequences for black sportswomen. Some footballers have gone so far as to change how they play so that they are not seen as angry or masculine, but just as women who play the game they love. For example, ex-England player Anita Asante explained:
You have to check yourself to make sure people don’t view you in that light. Maybe on that particular day in a training session, I am that sassy person, or I am that competitive person that comes across a bit more feisty – but because there is an association with being a black woman and having that energy and boldness is not always seen a positive thing, [so] I might refrain from being that person and contain more of my emotions.
Evidence shows that misogynoir can influence the career opportunities that are afforded to black women more generally. A recent US study connected racism to higher levels of stress and to higher mortality rates.
Unless, meaningful action is taken by broadcasters to change the practice of commentary through tallying exercises like our research, then commentators might be unwittingly contributing to the racial stereotypes that cause psychological and physiological harm to the same superstars that they idolise and praise.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Despite the scale of its military assault on Iran, the Trump administration’s reasons for entering into war have been inconsistent and vague, from regime change to the destruction of nuclear weapons, preempting military action by Israel, or the more chilling decree of following “God’s divine plan.”
Politicians, pundits and even social media users have been quick to point out the contradictions of these justifications – regime change is impossible from the air, especially when you kill the alternatives, and weren’t those nuclear weapons already destroyed?
But the “why” for entering into war matters beyond scoring political points.
Why, and how, a president engages in military action has serious implications for the constitutional authority of any wartime action and, specifically, whether Congress has any hope of checking the warmaking of a president.
One way around this, as the Trump administration and congressional Republicans have half-heartedly attempted, is to avoid calling this conflict a “war.” The messaging didn’t stick. In fact, President Donald Trump has already used the term repeatedly.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that the U.S. military action in Iran was prompted by an ‘imminent threat.’
The more viable option for sidestepping the need to have Congress declare a war is for the president to claim authority under the War Powers Resolution of 1973, which grants a president the power to involve the armed forced in “hostilities” or “potential hostilities” without congressional approval only under extraordinary conditions of “imminent threat.”
At least one member of the administration appears to understand this nuance: Secretary of State Marco Rubio – notably, a former member of Congress himself. Rubio used the specific terminology “imminent threat” when discussing why the Trump administration began the bombing.
Absent a truly imminent threat, the president is required by the resolution to “consult regularly” with Congress before and after engaging in military action. Importantly, the military action is limited to 60 days, during which the president must “report to the Congress periodically” with updates to keep the legislative branch informed.
After 60 days, the president must, the resolution says, “terminate any use of United States Armed Forces.” If a president wants to wage a war longer than that, that requires an additional declaration by Congress. Such a declaration would require votes similar to a bill being passed.
In 2002, for example, after initiating a “war on terror,” President George W. Bush eventually turned to Congress to pass the Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against Iraq. This permitted Bush to send troops into Iraq and further pursue a war that would last a decade.
In today’s case, by claiming that the Iranian regime was posing an imminent threat to the United States, the president can more easily circumvent congressional approval for military action and then turn to Congress after the fact if further action is needed.
As werecently discussed on our podcast about Congress, “Highway to Hill,” Congress has been continually ceding its power to the executive branch for decades. Deflection on military authority goes back even further: Congress hasn’t formally declared war since World War II – yes, despite involvement in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and many other places. But the Constitution doesn’t mince words on who’s responsible for entering the U.S. into war: Congress.
And how this war is ultimately framed by the White House has implications for the types of oversight Congress can perform to limit or curtail military action.
The limited powers of the war powers resolution
Congress, seemingly caught off guard by the Trump administration’s actions in Iran, has responded in a few ways. Perhaps unsurprisingly, responses have fallen largely along party lines.
On the Republican side, Rubio’s explanation for the military action seemed to appease many key members of Congress. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, claimed the president had the authority to move forward with military action in Iran.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, said that any congressional attempt to limit the president’s warmaking power would be “frightening” and “dangerous.”
Public accountability in congressional hearings
Oversight at work in Congress, as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Feb. 10, 1966, holds one of its many hearings on the Vietnam war. George Kennan, former ambassador to Moscow, is at the witness table. Henry Griffin, AP file photo
Oversight hearings provide members of Congress an opportunity to not only question and investigate the executive branch’s activity, but also to provide their constituents with this fact-finding work and draw attention to policy issues. As some recent oversight hearings indicate, these can also be opportunities for partisan jabs and “made for TV” moments.
But there is evidence that they produce results.
Following tense oversight hearings on excessive spending in the Department of Homeland Security, Secretary Kristi Noem was fired from her position in early March 2026.
In the 1970s, the Church Committee – named for its formidable chair, U.S. Sen. Frank Church of Idaho – held extensive hearings that included eye-opening testimony about clandestine U.S. intelligence activities abroad and domestically. The Church Committee recommended, and Congress subsequently enacted, dozens of sweeping reforms to foreign intelligence collection activities, as well as restraints on future efforts by the U.S. government to assassinate people.
Although the Trump administration has provided closed-door briefings to members of Congress, Democratic senators are asking for more. They are calling for Department of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Rubio to come before congressional committees to explain their reasoning and plans for the Iran war.
Not only do oversight hearings provide members of Congress with an opportunity to investigate and question an administration’s actions, but they bring that discussion to the public. This transparency provides constituents with information about how their tax dollars are being spent, what their members of Congress think, and may even sway public opinion.
Power of the purse
But perhaps the most powerful tool that Congress has is its power of the purse, outlined in Article 1 of the Constitution.
As the war drags on, the Trump administration will need more money – money that only Congress can dole out. Unlike war powers resolutions, which in this case would limit military action after the fact, new spending cannot occur until Congress writes and passes legislation appropriating additional funds.
But this would constitute a blank check for a foreign war. And that might be too much to ask of members of Congress in both parties, particularly as the U.S. faces a historic deficit and cuts to safety net programs.
And as public opinion on both military action in Iran and the state of the economy continues to sour, a vote for more military spending might well overtax any remaining goodwill of voters and members of Congress alike.
In fact, the political pressure on Congress to put its foot down could become so immense that lawmakers may have to do something – like their job.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Yimin Wu, Associate Professor, Tang Family Chair in New Energy Materials and Sustainability, University of Waterloo
Hundreds of millions of tonnes of plastic are produced globally every year. New research shows how that waste can be turned into something useful. (Unsplash/Nick Fewings)
Plastic is one of the most durable materials humans have ever made. That durability has made it indispensable in medicine, food packaging and transport. But it’s also created one of the defining environmental problems we have faced.
Hundreds of millions of tonnes of plastic are produced globally every year. Much of it ends up in landfills, incinerators or the natural environment, where it can persist for centuries.
The methods we have for getting rid of plastic pollution have their downsides. Putting it in landfills means chemicals and microplastics can seep into the surrounding environment.
Burning it releases harmful fumes and toxins. Mechanical recycling often downgrades plastics into lower-value products, while chemical recycling typically requires high temperatures, high pressures and large amounts of energy.
Colleagues and I recently published research that explores a very different possibility: using sunlight and an iron-based catalyst to convert common plastic waste directly into acetic acid — the key component of vinegar and an important industrial chemical.
Instead of treating plastic purely as waste, our research shows that it can be transformed into something useful under mild conditions.
Learning from a wood-rotting fungus
The inspiration for our research came from nature. The white-rot fungus (Phanerochaete chrysosporium) is famous for its ability to break down lignin, one of the toughest polymers found in wood. It does this using enzymes that generate highly reactive chemical species capable of dismantling complex carbon structures.
We wondered whether a synthetic material could mimic this strategy.
The catalyst we designed is iron-doped carbon nitride, a semiconductor that absorbs visible light. We then anchored individual iron atoms, creating what scientists call a single-atom catalyst.
Rather than forming nanoparticles, each iron atom is isolated and embedded within the carbon nitride structure. This atomic precision is crucial. Each iron atom behaves like an active site in a natural enzyme, maximizing efficiency while maintaining stability.
A two-step reaction powered by light
The system works through a cascade of light-driven reactions.
Under sunlight and in the presence of hydrogen peroxide, the iron sites activate the peroxide to generate highly reactive hydroxyl radicals. A radical is an atom, molecule or ion that has at least one unpaired electron. This makes them highly chemically reactive.
These radicals attack the long carbon chains that make up plastics, like polyethylene (used in plastic bags), polypropylene (food containers), PET (drink bottles) and even PVC (pipes and packaging).
The polymers are progressively oxidized and broken down into smaller molecules, eventually forming carbon dioxide (CO₂).
Rather than allowing this CO₂ to escape, the same catalyst then performs a second job: it uses sunlight to reduce the CO₂ into acetic acid. In other words, the carbon in plastic waste is first oxidized and then re-assembled into a new, valuable molecule.
Essentially, this approach breaks down plastic and converts the resulting carbon into a commodity chemical in a single system. This distinguishes it from most existing recycling technologies.
Why acetic acid?
Acetic acid is best known as the sour component of vinegar, but it is also a major industrial feedstock. It is used to produce adhesives, coatings, solvents, synthetic fibres and pharmaceuticals.
Global demand runs into the millions of tonnes each year, representing a multi-billion-dollar market.
Currently, most acetic acid is produced through an energy-intensive processes process called methanol carbonylation, whereby methanol is reacted with carbon monoxide at high temperatures.
Converting waste plastic into acetic acid offers a potential circular pathway: instead of extracting new carbon, we reuse carbon already present in discarded materials.
In our experiments, the system produced acetic acid at rates comparably favourable with other reported light-driven plastic conversion methods. When we enhanced light utilization inside the reactor, the production rate increased substantially.
Importantly, the reaction operated at room temperature and normal atmospheric pressure. That contrasts with many chemical recycling methods that require heating plastics to several hundred degrees Celsius.
Handling real-world plastic
Laboratory studies often focus on pure, single plastic types. But real waste streams are mixed and contaminated. We therefore tested different common plastics individually, as well as mixtures.
Our catalyst was able to convert several major commodity plastics. Interestingly, PVC showed particularly strong performance. We believe chlorine released during its breakdown may generate additional reactive radicals, accelerating degradation.
The iron atoms remained atomically dispersed after repeated use, indicating good stability. This matters because catalyst degradation or metal leaching can undermine both performance and environmental safety.
The system does rely on added hydrogen peroxide, which is consumed during the reaction. While hydrogen peroxide decomposes into water and oxygen and is considered relatively benign, future work will need to address how it can be supplied sustainably at scale.
From concept to practice
Scaling up any new chemical process presents challenges. Light penetration, reactor design and the variability of waste plastic feedstocks all affect efficiency. Additives in commercial plastics — such as stabilizers, pigments and plasticizers — can also influence reaction outcomes.
To explore feasibility, we conducted a preliminary techno-economic assessment. This is a way of analyzing the potential economic benefits of an industrial process or product.
While further optimization is required, our analysis suggests that coupling waste cleanup with the production of a valuable chemical could help offset costs — particularly when environmental benefits are taken into account.
More broadly, this work illustrates the power of single-atom catalysts and bio-inspired design. By mimicking the way enzymes control reactivity at precise metal centres, we can achieve complex chemical transformations under mild conditions using sunlight as the energy source.
Rethinking plastic’s life cycle
The problem of plastic pollution will not be solved by a single technology. Reducing unnecessary plastic use, improving product design and strengthening recycling systems are all essential.
Transforming plastic waste into useful chemicals offers a complementary strategy. It reframes plastic not only as an environmental burden but also as a carbon resource.
If we can harness sunlight to drive these transformations efficiently and at scale, yesterday’s discarded packaging could become tomorrow’s industrial feedstock.
The challenge now is to translate our laboratory advances into robust, scalable systems. If successful, it would mark a step toward a more circular economy — one where waste is not the end of the story, but the beginning of a new one.
Yimin Wu receives funding from Tang Family Chair in New Energy Materials and Sustainability, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the seed funding from the Water Institute (WI), Waterloo Institute for Nanotechnology (WIN) at the University of Waterloo.
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Christopher Lo, Associate Professor, Psychology, University of Toronto; James Cook University
The front of the Star Binz liquidation store in Toronto. Merchandise at these stores comes from major retailers and online platforms, which are purchased through liquidation auctions and resold.(Chris Lo), CC BY
For $25, you might walk out with a drone. Or a blender. Or a box of something you won’t identify until you tear through the tape.
At “binz” stores, bargain hunters line up early on Saturdays to gain first access to piles of surplus goods dumped into waist-high bins. The merchandise comes from major retailers and online platforms, which are purchased through liquidation auctions and resold.
Binz stores are one highly visible edge of the booming recommerce and liquidation economy. The global recommerce market, which resells returned, refurbished and second-hand goods, is projected to generate more than US$200 billion annually.
Binz stores attract not only low-income shoppers but a broad cross-section drawn by the thrill of discovery and ultra-cheap goods. As the high cost-of-living strains household budgets in Canada, more consumers have traded down, seeking discounts and secondary markets.
Binz stores represent a layer of the secondary market that is equal parts bargain hunt and chaos. Liquidation marketplaces, off-price retailers and salvage wholesalers form a vast ecosystem beneath traditional retail designed to recover value from goods that cannot be sold at full price.
The afterlife of surplus
To understand binz stores, it helps to understand how surplus is created in the first place. They are the cumulative result of supply chain logistics, prediction error and the extraction of value in what might be called retail’s surplus afterlife.
Modern supply chains are one-way highways that move goods from global manufacturers to centralized hubs, then to retail outlets. They are optimized for speed and efficiency, but they are rarely designed to run in reverse.
“Most of the supply chains are designed for moving goods from manufacturer to the consumer. They are not designed for returning stuff,” says Murat Kristal, professor of operations management at the Schulich School of Business at York University.
Going forward, you might drop off a box of 15 at every store, he says. Now imagine going backwards, collecting unsold items, two here, three there, store by store, and then having to transport, sort and store them all in the warehouse while the fashion cycle changes.
Reversing the system multiplies the cost of the “last mile” of delivery — typically the most expensive part of distribution, explains Kristal. These final legs of distribution can account for about half of total shipping costs in some supply chains, according to industry analyses.
In many cases, it is cheaper to liquidate excess inventory in bulk than to reintegrate it backwards through primary distribution channels.
Forecasting the future
Retailers must predict the future, months in advance. A shirt on the shelf today may have been ordered a year ago, after yarns were sourced and factories booked in Southeast Asia.
Shipping full containers lowers per-unit costs, while producing smaller batches increases them. The economics of global manufacturing favours volume and planning production far in advance — a classic example of economies of scale where the cost of producing each individual item falls as the total number of units produced increases.
Companies must forecast how many units will sell in a market: how many small, medium and large, which colours and styles. If they predict 100 and sell 80, 20 remain. This forecasting is not optional “because you need to give a number to your manufacturer,” Kristal says.
Error is built into that bet. Retailers forecast based on past sales and trends. To avoid running out of stock, companies routinely overproduce or over-order to prevent empty shelves and lost sales. In fashion, between 10 and 40 per cent of garments made each year may go unsold. That buffer helps ensure availability but inevitably generates surplus inventory when demand fails to materialize.
Returning items to the warehouse is costly, and storing last season’s inventory makes little economic sense in industries driven by cycles. Liquidation often becomes the rational choice.
But the future is becoming harder to read. “It’s just that the unpredictability of the world we live in is increasing,” Kristal says.
Surplus goods lose value over time, but that value rarely disappears entirely. Instead, it continues to be extracted as goods move further downstream from manufacturers to liquidation channels, and ultimately to bargain-hunting consumers.
“With some exceptions, virtually everything that gets manufactured in the world gets sold,” says Mark Cohen, former director of retail studies at Columbia Business School. “Everything has an economic value that gets deflated as merchandise is bought, or merchandise is unsold” at its intended price and venue.
In binz stores, this value decay is prominently visible. Each day has a flat rate for binned items, with prices dropping daily until restock day renews the cycle. In one store, a board game that once retailed for $70 might sell for $25 on restock day, $10 by midweek and $1 by week’s end.
Each change of hands reduces margin, but value can persist longer than assumed. “Eventually, even if it winds up in a junkyard or in a garbage dump, there are increasingly attempts to extract value by repurposing or extracting material,” says Cohen.
The thrill of the hunt
Bargain hunting is not purely economic. It also has a psychological dimension. Research suggests that searching for deals can trigger feelings of excitement and reward, making binz shopping similar to a game of treasure hunt.
“Go as early as possible to get the best merchandise,” says Jonatas Beltrão, a Toronto painter. He first stumbled across a binz store while walking by and became curious about the large tables piled with goods.
Beltrão still laughs about his proudest purchase: a coffee maker that cost $85 on Amazon that he bought for $8.99. He goes every two weeks for the fun of finding brand-name items at a fraction of their original cost.
The uncertainty of what might appear in the binz, and the bragging rights of finding a trophy, help explain why some shoppers keep coming back and how goods continue circulating long past their intended retail life.
“There’s a buyer for almost everything,” Cohen says.
In that sense, binz stores show the afterlife of surplus goods: leftover merchandise becomes part of a shopping experience built around chance, discovery and the thrill of a good deal.
Christopher Lo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – France – By Frédéric Leone, Professeur des Universités, Géographe des risques et des catastrophes "naturelles", Volcanographe, Cartographe, Université Paul Valéry – Montpellier III
According to UNESCO, in 2022, there is a 100% chance of a tsunami of at least one metre high in the Mediterranean Sea in the next 30 years. France’s Côte d’Azur happens to be one of the most seismically active areas in Western Europe.Arno Smit/Unsplash, CC BY
The Mediterranean sea is widely perceived as having a low tsunami risk. History and recent modelling technology have demonstrated that destructive waves have already hit the French coast and could do so again. The results of a project carried out in Nice and along the French Riviera show why anticipation and preventive evacuation measures remain the only truly effective means of saving lives.
Tsunamis, formerly known as tidal waves, raz-de-marée in France or maremoti in Italy, are among the most destructive natural phenomena. Triggered by earthquakes, underwater landslides or volcanic eruptions, they spread rapidly over long distances before releasing their energy near the coast in the form of sudden submersion and extremely powerful currents.
From several centimetres to several metres, this flooding is generally characterised by several waves, and the first waves are not necessarily the largest. The speed of the current is such that the pressure exerted on coastal infrastructure can reach several tons per square metre
Since 1970, tsunamis have claimed more than 250,000 lives worldwide, notably the Boxing day tsunami in 2004 in the Indian ocean and the tsunami on March 11 2011 in Japan, for instance.
A risk that is not so farfetched after all
In the collective imagination, tsunamis have long been associated with the Pacific and the Indian ocean. The risk of an offshore tsunami in the Mediterranean has often been considered marginal, and this in itself could be misleading. In June 2022, UNESCO, which is committed to increasing global tsunami risk awareness among coastal communities, declared:
“Statistics show that there is a 100% chance of a tsunami of at least one metre high in the Mediterranean Sea in the next 30 years.”
After the Pacific, the Mediterranean basin holds the highest number of historical tsunamis recorded, of which several have impacted France’s Côte d’Azur coastline.
According to available data, around twenty incidences were reported in the maritime area along the French Riviera between the 16th century and the early 2000s with waves often exceeding two metres.
Evacuation times that are often very short
The sources of Mediterranean tsunamis can be local or distant. In some scenarios, run-up time for the first waves can be under ten minutes, particularly in the event of an underwater landslide or earthquake close to the coast, such as in the Ligurian sea between Corsica and the Italian coast. Conversely, tsunamis generated further away from France, for example off the northern coast of North Africa, can reach the French Riviera in less than 90 minutes.
The Boumerdès earthquake (Algeria) on May 21, 2003 caused havoc along the entire French Mediterranean coastline. A field enquiry showed that eight marinas on the French Riviera experienced significant sea level drops (from 50 cm to 1.5 m), basin purges, strong eddies and currents, and damaged boats, consistent with harbour resonance phenomena. The effects were observed on the French Riviera coastline an hour and a quarter after the earthquake.
Of more local origin, the tsunami in Nice on October 16 1979, triggered by the underwater collapse of part of the construction site for the new commercial port in Nice (Alpes-Maritimes), adjacent to the airport, caused the deaths of eight people and significant damage in Antibes, Cannes and Nice. The phenomenon was observed in Antibes for around thirty minutes.
Another scenario that could occur closer to the coast is that of the seismic tsunami that struck the Ligurian Sea on February 23, 1887], following an underwater earthquake measuring between 6.5 and 6.8 on the Richter scale. Contemporary accounts describe a sudden retreat of the sea by about one metre in Antibes and Cannes, leaving fishing boats high and dry, before the arrival of a wave reaching nearly two metres, which covered the beaches.
These events are a reminder of how we are completely taken by surprise, and how such short spaces of time show the limits of traditional warning systems. Coastal communities’ ability to evacuate quickly becomes crucial.
Two tsunami scenarios could impact Mediterranean coastline (red: seaquake close to Algeria’s coast, green: submarine landslide in the Ligurian sea). Sahal, Leone & Péroche, 2013, Fourni par l’auteur
An operational warning system for France
France has had a national tsunami alert system that has been part of the Centre d’alerte aux tsunamis (Cenalt) since July 2012, in conjunction with the international system coordinated by UNESCO in the Mediterranean. This system makes it possible to rapidly detect potentially tsunami-generating earthquakes and transmit an alert in less than fifteen minutes to the interdepartmental crisis management operational centre (Cogic) and foreign alert centres.
It is then up to the authorities to disseminate alert messages to the population, in particular via the FR-Alert platform, which allows notifications to be sent to the mobile phones of people located in the danger zone.
However, this global system only covers tsunamis caused by distant earthquakes and is not very effective in the case of local tsunamis or those caused by underwater landslides, where the time it takes for the tsunami to reach the coast may be less than the warning time. This is why it is important to raise awareness among coastal populations about detecting warning signs: felt earthquakes, abnormal sea movements, most often seawater retreats preceding the run-up of the tsunami, but not always.
Nice – Côte d’Azur coastline is highly at risk
Along the entire French Mediterranean coastline, an evacuation zone has been defined by government agencies and the University of Montpellier, based on altitude, distance from the sea and historical data. It corresponds to coastal areas with an altitude of less than 5 metres that are less than 200 metres from the sea. Along river mouths, this distance is extended to 500 metres with respect to the estuary.
Including Corsica, 1,700 km of coastline, 187 towns along the French Mediterranean coast, and at least 164,000 residents would be affected. At the height of the summer, an estimated 835,000 beach users would also need to be taken into consideration in the event of a tsunami.
The Nice – Côte d’Azur metropolitan area is vulnerable for a number of reasons: dense urbanisation, strong tourist appeal, and very busy beaches. Our photo analysis and modelling work have enabled us to estimate that tens of thousands of people are present in the area to be evacuated during periods of high visitor numbers (between 10,000 and 87,000 people on the beaches, depending on the season and time of day).
Evacuating ahead of a tsunami: the plan for Nice and surrounding coastal areas
When faced with a tsunami, evacuation is the only effective means of ensuring civilian safety. International experience shows that rapid and well-prepared evacuation procedures can save the vast majority of exposed populations. Reactive evacuation measures, for example, saved 96% of Japanese inhabitants when the major tsunami struck the Tōhoku coast on March 11 2011.
In Nice – Côte d’Azur, a comprehensive evacuation strategy has been developed and supported by scientific research led by the University of Montpellier’s Laboratory of Geography and Land Planning. It is based on optimised walking routes, taking into account slopes, obstacles, travel speeds and congestion points. Refuge sites located out of “waves’ reach” were identified and validated by local authorities, and evacuation routes were devised using algorithms to find the fastest routes.
In total, nearly a hundred refuge sites have been mapped out and incorporated into operational evacuation plans designed to quickly guide people to safe places.
The first tsunami risk awareness signposts were installed in Nice on February 27 2026. C. Thomin, MNCA, 2026, Fourni par l’auteur
From science to action: preparing the population
Raising tsunami awareness should go beyond evacuation mapping: safety drills such as evacuation exercises, particularly in schools or gradually introducing public warning signage; contribute to encouraging responsible behaviour. Several initiatives like these have been implemented in Nice via a project with students in Montpellier.
In Nice, a publicly accessible information platform with interactive maps also allows users to find evacuation zones, routes and instructions to follow in the event of an alert. These tools contribute to the development of a genuine tsunami risk culture.
Online map indicating evacuation zones, safe places and routes to get to them in the event of a tsunami in Nice. LAGAM/UMPV, 2026, Fourni par l’auteur
Becoming ‘Tsunami Ready’ territory
Beyond France’s Côte d’Azur coastal area, the information portal can be applied to other coastlines elsewhere in France and Europe, both in the Mediterranean and overseas, where tsunami run-up times can be just as short.
The initiatives that are being implemented in Nice are in keeping with UNESCO’s Tsunami Ready international recognition programme (TRRP). This 12-point programme aims to certify territories that are capable of anticipating a tsunami risk, prepare their populations and coordinate an appropriate response.
The first towns to be awarded the label and that have benefited from our team’s scientific and technical support were Deshaies in Guadeloupe and Cannes, with Nice set to join the programme in the near future.
When facing a wave that can arrive in a matter of minutes, being prepared to evacuate undoubtedly makes all the difference.
This article was written with the help of Louis Monnier, Monique Gherardi, Matthieu Péroche and Noé Carles, Université de Montpellier Paul-Valéry.
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Frédéric Leone ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.
Source: The Conversation – in French – By Michel Parazelli, Professeur associé retraité en travail social, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)
On ne reconnait pas toujours les personnes en situation d’itinérance comme appartenant à la communauté citoyenne.Ce manque de reconnaissance a des répercussions sociales considérables. Pour les premières concernées d’abord, dont on ne respecte pas toujours les droits, et qu’on prive de voix et de liens, au risque d’aggraver leur précarité, leur souffrance et leur mortalité. Pour la société ensuite, qui entretient une gestion de crise perpétuelle, fragilise les liens sociaux et renonce à la contribution politique de celles et ceux qu’elle relègue à ses marges.
À la suite d’une vaste consultation sur l’itinérance et la cohabitation sociale, l’Office de consultation publique de Montréal (OCPM) a déposé son rapport en juillet 2025. Cette démarche de consultation a rejoint 3903 personnes oeuvrant en milieu communautaire et institutionnel, ainsi que des personnes en situation d’itinérance.
Sur les 22 recommandations formulées par les commissaires, la première exhorte la Ville de Montréal à reconnaitre formellement « que les Montréalaises et Montréalais en situation d’itinérance sont des citoyennes et citoyens au même titre que ceux qui sont logés », et d’agir en conséquence.
Cette première recommandation du rapport de consultation de l’OCPM révèle quelque chose de la façon dont on traite les personnes qui sont à la marge des circuits formels de la production, de la consommation et de l’habitat. Les faits tendent à montrer que les droits des personnes en situation d’itinérance ne sont pas toujours respectés.
Les démantèlements des campements de sans-abri qui aggravent leurs conditions se poursuivent, malgré l’avis de la défenseure fédérale du logement. En 2024, elle exigeait des gouvernements qu’ils respectent les droits et la dignité des personnes résidant dans les campements.
Les pratiques de profilage social des policiers perdurent, malgré la reconnaissance par la Commission des droits de la personne et la jeunesse depuis 2009, que la «stigmatisation des sans-abri dans les normes et règlements de la police et le profilage qui s’ensuit porte atteinte au droit de ces personnes à la sauvegarde de leur
dignité sans discrimination fondée sur la condition sociale.»
Les organismes communautaires souffrent de sous-financement chronique, malgré qu’ils soient les principaux intervenants sur le terrain auprès des sans-abri.
Le recours au privé pour gérer la sécurité publique et la production de logements abordables croît. Or, son modèle économique repose sur la maximisation des profits, ce qui crée un conflit d’intérêts avec la visée d’abordabilité et de pérennité hors marché du logement social].
Le taux de mortalité des personnes en situation d’itinérance a augmenté en 2024, selon le bureau du coroner. Les données montrent que plusieurs décès auraient pu être évités s’il y avait eu des services de santé adaptés.
L’adoption du projet de loi 103, en novembre 2025, même s’il menace les services de consommation supervisée. Une majorité d’acteurs du terrain ont qualifié cette législation de dangereux recul dans la lutte contre la crise des surdoses.
Chacun de ces exemples montre que le respect des droits et de la dignité des personnes en situation d’itinérance est loin d’être garanti.
Une gestion inadaptée et des choix politiques aggravants
S’agit-il d’une simple défaillance de l’action publique appelant l’optimisation d’une gestion plus agile et efficace, comme l’ont affirmé certains candidats lors des dernières élections municipales ?
Dans son rapport, l’OCPM souligne bien des problèmes majeurs de coordination entre les silos institutionnels qui interviennent en itinérance. Toutefois, l’examen plus attentif des problèmes auxquels sont confrontés les acteurs sociaux montréalais tend à montrer que le problème est structurel. Il s’agit d’un constat communément partagé de l’impuissance des acteurs résultant d’une gestion permanente de solutions provisoires.
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Il existe bien quelques avancées sur le plan de la disponibilité de logements adaptés, ou de pratiques de cohabitation sociale apaisées, mais celles-ci ne réussissent pas à sortir de l’urgence. La raison en est que cette situation de crise qui s’étend à plusieurs municipalités québécoises est surtout le produit de choix politiques antérieurs avec ses effets délétères. On peut mentionner ici le retrait du gouvernement fédéral du financement du logement social depuis les années 1990, l’incapacité du provincial à construire suffisamment de logements sociaux hors marché, ainsi qu’à améliorer l’accès aux services sociaux et de santé adaptés.
D’une prise en charge gestionnaire à une prise en compte citoyenne
Un autre constat issu de ce rapport met en lumière l’exclusion des personnes en situation d’itinérance des décisions qui les concernent.
C’est pourquoi certaines des recommandations de l’OCPM proposent d’inclure des personnes en situation d’itinérance au sein de comités consultatifs aux niveaux municipal et local. Il s’agit de donner des avis sur l’ensemble des pratiques de gouvernance en matière d’itinérance. Cette orientation suscitant l’engagement citoyen représente une rupture avec la logique dominante de prise en charge des solutions par les gestionnaires.
En situation d’urgence, les gestionnaires des services sociaux et municipaux oeuvrant en itinérance agissent la plupart du temps pour le bien d’autrui, mais sans le point de vue d’autrui. Par exemple, l’augmentation de la surveillance policière, les démantèlements des campements et l’aménagement des haltes-chaleur étaient souvent justifiés par des arguments de sécurité des occupants, même au prix d’une plus grande marginalisation. Cette approche de « prise en charge » s’oppose à une pratique plus dialogique à visée démocratique.
En travail social, cette seconde approche est qualifiée de « prise en compte », en phase avec la reconnaissance de la citoyenneté d’une personne, même celle qui tend à émerger dans la marge sociale. Dès lors, plutôt que d’agir uniquement sur les comportements jugés inadéquats ou dérangeants des personnes en situation d’itinérance, il s’agit d’adopter une posture de « prévenance ». L’idée consiste à aller au-devant de ces personnes pour considérer leur point de vue sur leur propre situation, dont l’analyse qu’elles font des actions entreprises par d’autres acteurs sur leurs propres conditions d’existence sociale.
Ce dialogue continu permet de mieux orienter des pratiques d’intervention en fonction des désirs et besoins négociés avec les personnes en situation d’itinérance. Cette rencontre de l’autre demeure une exigence éthique et politique d’une gouvernance municipale à visée démocratique.
Soutenir l’organisation de collectifs
En rupture avec l’ancienne administration, la nouvelle mairesse Martinez Ferrada a déposé un plan de gestion des campements urbains pour des sites autorisés. Les principes évoqués dans ce plan signalent bien l’intention de la Ville de suivre la première recommandation de l’OCPM : respecter la dignité et les droits des personnes citoyennes en situation d’itinérance. À l’heure actuelle, le protocole, qui se veut évolutif, ne prévoit toutefois aucune disposition concrète visant à instaurer un dialogue continu avec les personnes occupant les campements. Au-delà des intentions, il est actuellement difficile de voir comment la Ville reconnaitra leur pouvoir d’agir citoyen si le droit de s’exprimer sur les décisions affectant les conditions d’existence des campements demeure à l’état de vœux pieux.
Agir en conséquence d’une reconnaissance de la citoyenneté des personnes en situation d’itinérance impliquerait de les inclure dans la négociation du protocole et de sa mise en place sur les sites concernés. Le défi n’est donc pas que technique, mais avant tout relationnel et politique.
Bref, il est certes urgent de rappeler aux gouvernements provincial et fédéral leur responsabilité face à cet échec social. Il est tout aussi important de soutenir l’organisation collective des personnes en situation d’itinérance pour qu’elles puissent négocier ensemble leur place sociale à l’image des autres groupes sociaux marginalisés au Québec.
Michel Parazelli ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.
If TikTok fitness advice is to be believed, you should be interval walking like the Japanese, hanging from a pull-up bar every day and committing to a 75-day challenge with no rest days.
Some of these trends are grounded in scientific research. Others are built on shaky claims or misunderstandings of how the body actually adapts to exercise.
Social media has made fitness advice more accessible than ever. But a review has raised concerns about the accuracy and quality of online fitness content, much of which is produced by creators without relevant qualifications.
So which viral workouts actually hold up when you look at the evidence? Here’s what the science says about four of the most widely shared trends.
Japanese walking
According to an analysis of Google search data, “Japanese walking” saw a 2,968% increase in search interest over the past year. The method is simple: alternate three minutes of brisk walking with three minutes at a gentle pace for around 30 minutes.
What makes this trend unusual is that it’s actually grounded in peer-reviewed research. Developed by researchers at Shinshu University in Japan, a randomised controlled trial studied 246 adults (average age 63). The interval walking group showed significantly greater improvements in thigh muscle strength, aerobic capacity and blood pressure than a steady-pace group. A 2024 review confirmed these benefits hold up across larger populations.
There are caveats, though. In the original study, roughly 22% of participants dropped out of the interval programme – more than in the steady-pace group. And no study has yet linked Japanese walking directly to living longer. We already know that hitting a modest daily step target reduces the risk of death and disease. Japanese walking appears to be a useful upgrade to a regular walking habit – but it’s not the only way to get moving.
75 Hard
The 75 Hard challenge is one of the most widely shared fitness trends on TikTok. The rules: two 45-minute workouts daily (one outdoors), a strict diet, a gallon of water, ten pages of reading and a progress photo – for 75 consecutive days with no rest days.
The no-rest-days rule is the most problematic element. Physiological adaptation to exercise, the process by which your body becomes fitter, doesn’t happen during training. It happens during recovery. Exercise creates a controlled stress; given sufficient rest, the body rebuilds and adapts.
Without it, you accumulate fatigue rather than fitness. A joint consensus statement from the European College of Sport Science and American College of Sports Medicine outlines how sustained overload without adequate recovery can progress to overtraining syndrome: chronic fatigue, declining performance and increased susceptibility to illness and injury.
The 90 minutes of daily exercise also far exceeds the World Health Organization’s guideline of 150–300 minutes per week. For someone currently inactive, jumping to 630 minutes a week is a recipe for injury, not transformation.
Dead hangs
Dead hangs (hanging from a pull-up bar for as long as possible) are a fixture of fitness social media. Proponents claim the exercise decompresses the spine, corrects posture and transforms shoulder health. Some of these claims hold up better than others.
The strongest case for dead hangs is grip strength. This might sound unglamorous, but it’s clinically significant. A 2019 narrative review described grip strength as an “indispensable biomarker” for health, with multiple meta-analyses linking weak grip to higher mortality risk. The PURE study, which tracked nearly 140,000 adults across 17 countries, found grip strength was a stronger predictor of cardiovascular death than systolic blood pressure.
The “spinal decompression” claims, however, are less convincing. While gravity-based traction can temporarily increase disc height, the spine returns to its normal state once you’re back under gravitational load. No study has shown that brief bouts of hanging produce lasting spinal changes. Dead hangs are a useful exercise, just not for the reasons most often claimed.
Pilates
Pilates was the most-booked workout globally on ClassPass for the third consecutive year, with reservations up 66% from 2024. Research supports its benefits: a systematic review found strong evidence that Pilates improves flexibility and dynamic balance in healthy people, with moderate evidence for muscular endurance.
Where the evidence falls apart is the claim that Pilates builds “long, lean muscles”, as opposed to “bulky” ones from lifting weights. This is a myth. Muscle length is determined by anatomy, where each muscle’s tendons attach to bone. No form of exercise can change that.
What Pilates can do is improve the range of motion around a joint and build endurance under lower loads. But the “lean versus bulky” framing has no basis in physiology, and risks discouraging people from progressive strength training, which carries substantial benefits for bone density, metabolic health and cardiovascular risk.
Social media has got more people interested in exercise – and that’s genuinely valuable. But viral appeal is not the same as evidence. The principles that actually keep people healthy haven’t changed: build up gradually, allow time to recovery and be sceptical of anything promising dramatic results in an unrealistic timeframe.
Jack McNamara does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The US-Israel strikes on Iran have launched one of the most dramatic conflicts in the Middle East in living memory. Aside from military targets, Iranian forces have attacked commercial shipping and infrastructure in the region. The objective is simple: to disrupt oil exports and weaken its opponents’ economies.
While the oil market is perfectly capable of absorbing short-term supply shocks, it is possible that the key protagonists, Israel and the US, may have very different war objectives. These differences could result in a widening and deepening of the conflict.
This could lead to a prolonged closure of the strait of Hormuz, which handles 25% of the world’s seaborne oil and 20% of liquified natural gas (LNG) trade. China and India receive almost half of the exports and Asia accounts for 87% in total.
In response, China has banned petrol and diesel exports, an important source of supply for the rest of Asia. Japan and South Korea are also highly dependent on Middle East oil, but are wealthy countries with large reserves.
It is the poorer Asian countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, with only days of petrol and diesel reserves, that will feel the pinch.
And Europe receives less than 5% of oil via this route.
Sky-high prices
As a result, Asian buyers have turned to “benchmark” grades of oil from the Atlantic basin such as Brent and West Texas Intermediate, driving the oil prices higher. At the start of the second week of the conflict, the price of Brent, an international benchmark, was well over US$100 (£74.30).
However, the price of prompt, “safe” (Oman loads its oil exports outside the strait of Hormuz) Middle East-grade oil settled at US$124.68 for loading in May on the Gulf Mercantile Exchange (GME) on March 9. Some other oils (Abu Dhabi Murban and Upper Zakum, as well as Saudi crude) have been trickling out through small, alternative pipeline systems.
But the real shortage is for prompt barrels, loading in March and April. If available, this oil carries a large additional premium, often more than US$25 a barrel. What really matters to the end users is the price of oil delivered to the refinery – but shipping rates have increased many fold. Instead of US$6 freight before the war, for example, buyers are now paying well over US$15 for each barrel transported. As a result, the price of a delivered barrel of oil have already edged close to US$150.
Most Gulf oil producers are not in a better position. No new vessels are arriving to load the oil and storage tanks in ports are filling up fast.
Once the storage tanks are full, producers are forced to cut oil production. The most vulnerable producers are those with limited storage infrastructure: Iraq has already cut production. And Bahrain has announced a “force majeure” (an extraordinary event that is out of its control) for all its oil sales. Kuwait has followed with potential production cuts up to 1.5mbd.
So far the production cuts have been precautionary, but full shutdowns are damaging. It can take weeks to restart the fields and their long-term productivity may be significantly diminished because of shutting down.
From 1984-1988, during the Iran-Iraq war, around 550 commercial ships were attacked, killing hundreds of civilian sailors. In response, the US launched operation Earnest Will from 1987-1988, using navy ships to escort commercial vessels out of the Persian Gulf. In spite of this, tankers were still hit and many more sailors died. But oil kept flowing.
This solution is again being discussed in Washington, alongside providing affordable war insurance for shipping. The US International Development Finance Corporation, which usually helps the private sector to provide finance for developing countries, has been tasked with providing “affordable” (subsidised) war insurance.
Details of the proposal are unclear, but the fact remains that shipowners, operating in a market with very high returns, may not risk lives or their assets when they could very profitably operate other energy routes.
Another solution likely to be implemented soon is a release of oil from strategic stores – the largest release in history is reportedly now on the table. Countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) co-ordinate emergency stockpiles of at least 90 days’ supply through the International Energy Agency (IEA), which was formed in the 1970s to manage impacts of the oil shocks at the time.
The world’s commercial and strategic oil stocks are large. According to independent analysts Energy Intelligence, crude stocks could be sufficient to compensate for the closure of the strait for about 15 months. This assumes that at least 2mbd of Saudi and UAE production can be rerouted through alternative pipeline systems if the war goes on.
China, the US and Japan have particularly large reserves, possibly lasting for several weeks of average consumption (on top of any deliveries they receive).
IEA members have a long history of emergency oil stockpile releases. In 1991, during the first gulf war, they released about 75 million barrels; in 2005 after hurricanes Katrina and Rita about 60 million. Most recently, they released 180 million barrels in 2022, following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The US Treasury has been discussing measures to counter the rising energy prices by intervening in the oil futures market in a bid to bring prices back down. But this could be disastrous for the market as well as for the Treasury. On Black Wednesday in 1992, the Bank of England’s attempts to defend the value of sterling led to multibillion-pound losses for the government.
The coming days are going to be crucial for the oil market. If the war continues, it is clear that both oil-producing and consuming countries face immense risks.
Adi Imsirovic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Gawthorpe, Lecturer in History and International Studies, Leiden University
Donald Trump has said he thinks the war with Iran will be over soon. In a phone interview with CBS News on Monday, March 9, the US president said: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much … we’re very far ahead of schedule.”
This seemed to mark a shift in tone from earlier statements in which Trump had insisted the war would continue until Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. Given Tehran’s defiant tone and continuing missile and drone campaign throughout the region, such a scenario doesn’t seem to be on the cards.
Trump’s remarks appear to have been designed to calm the anxiety which had spread through financial markets on Monday, with oil briefly trading above US$100 (£75) a barrel for the first time since 2022 and stock markets falling. They look to have achieved that goal, at least for now, as markets stabilised the following day.
The fact that economic pain would persuade Trump to start talking about an end to the conflict is not surprising. The economy is set to be the major issue in the upcoming US midterm elections in November and Trump’s domestic political aides are concerned that inflation caused by higher oil prices will harm the Republican party’s prospects.
They want Trump to find a way out of the conflict as soon as is feasible. But what Trump’s comments did not clarify is what his exit strategy might look like and whether the US would be able to claim victory after finding one.
Trump’s mixed messaging
Whether a war is deemed to have been a success or a failure is typically judged against the goals the combatants set for themselves. However, reaching that judgment is complicated in this case by the fact that different figures in the Trump administration have put forward different goals.
The Pentagon, for instance, has claimed that the US has “short-term, clearly defined goals in Iran”. These goals are destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, its navy and its nuclear ambitions. But if that is official US policy, then nobody seems to have told the president.
Trump has frequently spoken like he will settle for nothing less than a complete change of leadership in Iran. Sometimes Trump has made it sound like this means total regime change, with the Iranian people rising up and overthrowing their government.
When announcing the start of the operation in Iran, for example, Trump said: “I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment, to be brave, be bold, be heroic and take back your country.”
At other times, he has drawn a parallel to Venezuela where the US deposed Nicolás Maduro in January and installed its preferred figure, Delcy Rodríguez, in his place. Following the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, Trump said: “I have to be involved in the [next] appointment, like with Delcy in Venezuela.”
Through these remarks, Trump’s suggestion seems to be that someone from within the current Iranian government might be acceptable to the US if they agree to reorient the country’s policies.
Judged by that metric, any early end to the conflict is almost certainly going to leave the war looking like a failure for the US. Israel and the US have not gained enough leverage over the Iranian government to force a significant change in leadership, and it’s extremely hard to see how they could.
Iran’s government has so far shown no signs of internal fissures or weakness. It has, for example, now replaced the slain Khamenei with his 56-year-old son in a show of defiance towards Trump who had previously said: “I’m not going through this to end up with another Khamenei.” And after 11 days of attack by two of the most powerful air forces in the world, it is still fighting back.
A better case might be made that the Pentagon’s goal of degrading Iran’s military capabilities has been achieved. But the results here also threaten to look underwhelming for the US, especially because Trump had raised the prospect of achieving much more.
If all this war is seen to have accomplished is a great deal of damage to the Iranian military while leaving its government intact and able to rebuild its capabilities, Trump will struggle to justify its cost.
That cost can be counted in many ways. This ranges from the estimated US$1 billion to US$2 billion a day the war is costing in financial outlays through to the years it is going to take to build US munitions stocks back up.
The US will also incur diplomatic and reputational costs as a result of starting such a reckless conflict. And that’s before counting the economic damage from energy disruption and the risks of sparking a recurrent cycle of conflict into the future.
At the same time, this war may also reinforce the idea among American adversaries and friends that the US is strategically incontinent and unable to match means to ends. All of this means that any claim of victory by Trump will probably ring hollow, absent some major change in the pattern of the war to date.
A final complicating factor is that Trump alone does not get to decide when the war ends. Iran is still firing missiles and drones, and its threats to shipping are keeping the vital strait of Hormuz shipping lane effectively closed.
This is inflicting economic pain on the world, with Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Aramco warning recently of “catastrophic consequences” for global oil markets if the waterway doesn’t reopen soon.
Perhaps the worst case scenario for Trump will be if he declares victory and Iran continues to attack targets in the region. But if market turmoil forces Trump to find an early exit, this scenario could easily come true.
Andrew Gawthorpe is affiliated with the Foreign Policy Centre in London.
